XML 72 R12.htm IDEA: XBRL DOCUMENT v2.4.0.6
FAIR VALUE MEASUREMENTS
3 Months Ended
Mar. 31, 2013
Fair Value Disclosures [Abstract]  
FAIR VALUE MEASUREMENTS
FAIR VALUE MEASUREMENTS

Fair Value Hierarchy

GAAP specifies a hierarchy of valuation techniques based on whether the inputs to those valuation techniques are observable or unobservable. These two types of inputs create three valuation hierarchy levels. Level 1 valuations reflect quoted market prices for identical assets or liabilities in active markets. Level 2 valuations reflect quoted market prices for similar assets or liabilities in an active market, quoted market prices for identical or similar assets or liabilities in non-active markets or model-derived valuations in which all significant valuation inputs are observable in active markets. Level 3 valuations reflect valuations in which one or more of the significant inputs are not observable in an active market.

The following tables present the fair value hierarchy levels of the Company's assets and liabilities that are measured and carried at fair value on a recurring basis.
  
March 31, 2013
(In millions)
Quoted Prices in
Active Markets
for Identical
Assets
(Level 1)
 
Significant
Observable
Inputs
(Level 2)
 
Significant
Unobservable
Inputs
(Level 3)
 
Total
Fair
Value
Assets:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Securities available for sale, carried at
fair value:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
  Fixed maturities:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Government and agencies
 
$
12,190

 
 
 
$
704

 
 
 
$
0

 
 
 
$
12,894

 
Municipalities
 
0

 
 
 
1,161

 
 
 
0

 
 
 
1,161

 
Mortgage- and asset-backed securities
 
0

 
 
 
515

 
 
 
439

 
 
 
954

 
Public utilities
 
0

 
 
 
8,150

 
 
 
0

 
 
 
8,150

 
Sovereign and supranational
 
0

 
 
 
1,752

 
 
 
0

 
 
 
1,752

 
Banks/financial institutions
 
0

 
 
 
6,945

 
 
 
26

 
 
 
6,971

 
Other corporate
 
0

 
 
 
24,394

 
 
 
0

 
 
 
24,394

 
Total fixed maturities
 
12,190

 
 
 
43,621

 
 
 
465

 
 
 
56,276

 
  Perpetual securities:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Banks/financial institutions
 
0

 
 
 
2,915

 
 
 
0

 
 
 
2,915

 
Other corporate
 
0

 
 
 
218

 
 
 
0

 
 
 
218

 
Total perpetual securities
 
0

 
 
 
3,133

 
 
 
0

 
 
 
3,133

 
Equity securities
 
15

 
 
 
5

 
 
 
4

 
 
 
24

 
Other assets:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Interest rate swaps
 
0

 
 
 
0

 
 
 
26

 
 
 
26

 
Foreign currency swaps
 
0

 
 
 
251

 
 
 
130

 
 
 
381

 
Foreign currency forwards
 
0

 
 
 
19

 
 
 
0

 
 
 
19

 
Foreign currency options
 
0

 
 
 
2

 
 
 
0

 
 
 
2

 
Credit default swaps
 
0

 
 
 
0

 
 
 
2

 
 
 
2

 
Total other assets
 
0

 
 
 
272

 
 
 
158

 
 
 
430

 
Cash and cash equivalents
 
2,596

 
 
 
0

 
 
 
0

 
 
 
2,596

 
Total assets
 
$
14,801

 
 
 
$
47,031

 
 
 
$
627

 
 
 
$
62,459

 
Liabilities:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Interest rate swaps
 
$
0

 
 
 
$
0

 
 
 
$
1

 
 
 
$
1

 
Foreign currency swaps
 
0

 
 
 
0

 
 
 
314

 
 
 
314

 
Foreign currency forwards
 
0

 
 
 
272

 
 
 
0

 
 
 
272

 
Credit default swaps
 
0

 
 
 
0

 
 
 
56

 
 
 
56

 
Total liabilities
 
$
0

 
 
 
$
272

 
 
 
$
371

 
 
 
$
643

 

  
December 31, 2012
(In millions)
Quoted Prices in
Active Markets
for Identical
Assets
(Level 1)
 
Significant
Observable
Inputs
(Level 2)
 
Significant
Unobservable
Inputs
(Level 3)
 
Total
Fair
Value
Assets:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Securities available for sale, carried at
fair value:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
  Fixed maturities:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Government and agencies
 
$
12,265

 
 
 
$
732

 
 
 
$
0

 
 
 
$
12,997

 
Municipalities
 
0

 
 
 
1,195

 
 
 
0

 
 
 
1,195

 
Mortgage- and asset-backed securities
 
0

 
 
 
693

 
 
 
338

 
 
 
1,031

 
Public utilities
 
0

 
 
 
8,077

 
 
 
420

 
 
 
8,497

 
Sovereign and supranational
 
0

 
 
 
1,654

 
 
 
418

 
 
 
2,072

 
Banks/financial institutions
 
0

 
 
 
6,610

 
 
 
1,024

 
 
 
7,634

 
Other corporate
 
0

 
 
 
22,841

 
 
 
986

 
 
 
23,827

 
Total fixed maturities
 
12,265

 
 
 
41,802

 
 
 
3,186

 
 
 
57,253

 
  Perpetual securities:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Banks/financial institutions
 
0

 
 
 
3,735

 
 
 
215

 
 
 
3,950

 
Other corporate
 
0

 
 
 
352

 
 
 
0

 
 
 
352

 
Total perpetual securities
 
0

 
 
 
4,087

 
 
 
215

 
 
 
4,302

 
Equity securities
 
13

 
 
 
6

 
 
 
4

 
 
 
23

 
Other assets:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Interest rate swaps
 
0

 
 
 
0

 
 
 
32

 
 
 
32

 
Foreign currency swaps
 
0

 
 
 
154

 
 
 
157

 
 
 
311

 
Credit default swaps
 
0

 
 
 
0

 
 
 
2

 
 
 
2

 
Total other assets
 
0

 
 
 
154

 
 
 
191

 
 
 
345

 
Cash and cash equivalents
 
2,041

 
 
 
0

 
 
 
0

 
 
 
2,041

 
Total assets
 
$
14,319

 
 
 
$
46,049

 
 
 
$
3,596

 
 
 
$
63,964

 
Liabilities:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Interest rate swaps
 
$
0

 
 
 
$
0

 
 
 
$
3

 
 
 
$
3

 
Foreign currency swaps
 
0

 
 
 
0

 
 
 
329

 
 
 
329

 
Foreign currency forwards
 
0

 
 
 
535

 
 
 
0

 
 
 
535

 
Credit default swaps
 
0

 
 
 
0

 
 
 
67

 
 
 
67

 
Total liabilities
 
$
0

 
 
 
$
535

 
 
 
$
399

 
 
 
$
934

 



The following tables present the carrying amount and fair value categorized by fair value hierarchy level for the Company's financial instruments that are not carried at fair value.
  
March 31, 2013
(In millions)
Carrying
Value
Quoted Prices in
Active Markets
for Identical
Assets
(Level 1)
 
Significant
Observable
Inputs
(Level 2)
 
Significant
Unobservable
Inputs
(Level 3)
 
Total
Fair
Value
Assets:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Securities held to maturity,
carried at amortized cost:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
  Fixed maturities:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Government and agencies
 
$
24,606

 
 
$
26,760

 
 
 
$
0

 
 
 
$
0

 
 
 
$
26,760

 
Municipalities
 
452

 
 
0

 
 
 
517

 
 
 
0

 
 
 
517

 
Mortgage and asset-backed
securities
 
77

 
 
0

 
 
 
26

 
 
 
55

 
 
 
81

 
Public utilities
 
4,532

 
 
0

 
 
 
4,512

 
 
 
0

 
 
 
4,512

 
Sovereign and
supranational
 
2,953

 
 
0

 
 
 
3,073

 
 
 
0

 
 
 
3,073

 
Banks/financial institutions
 
8,480

 
 
0

 
 
 
7,953

 
 
 
0

 
 
 
7,953

 
Other corporate
 
4,104

 
 
0

 
 
 
4,151

 
 
 
0

 
 
 
4,151

 
 Total assets
 
$
45,204

 
 
$
26,760

 
 
 
$
20,232

 
 
 
$
55

 
 
 
$
47,047

 
Liabilities:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Notes payable
(excluding capital leases)
 
$
4,276

 
 
$
0

 
 
 
$
0

 
 
 
$
4,924

 
 
 
$
4,924

 
Obligation to Japanese
policyholder protection
corporation
 
2

 
 
0

 
 
 
0

 
 
 
2

 
 
 
2

 
Total liabilities
 
$
4,278

 
 
$
0

 
 
 
$
0

 
 
 
$
4,926

 
 
 
$
4,926

 
  
December 31, 2012
(In millions)
Carrying
Value
Quoted Prices in
Active Markets
for Identical
Assets
(Level 1)
 
Significant
Observable
Inputs
(Level 2)
 
Significant
Unobservable
Inputs
(Level 3)
 
Total
Fair
Value
Assets:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Securities held to maturity,
carried at amortized cost:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
  Fixed maturities:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Government and agencies
 
$
32,043

 
 
$
32,332

 
 
 
$
0

 
 
 
$
0

 
 
 
$
32,332

 
Municipalities
 
492

 
 
0

 
 
 
520

 
 
 
0

 
 
 
520

 
Mortgage and asset-backed
securities
 
90

 
 
0

 
 
 
30

 
 
 
64

 
 
 
94

 
Public utilities
 
4,924

 
 
0

 
 
 
5,051

 
 
 
0

 
 
 
5,051

 
Sovereign and
supranational
 
3,209

 
 
0

 
 
 
3,317

 
 
 
0

 
 
 
3,317

 
Banks/financial institutions
 
9,211

 
 
0

 
 
 
8,991

 
 
 
0

 
 
 
8,991

 
Other corporate
 
4,457

 
 
0

 
 
 
4,536

 
 
 
0

 
 
 
4,536

 
  Total assets
 
$
54,426

 
 
$
32,332

 
 
 
$
22,445

 
 
 
$
64

 
 
 
$
54,841

 
Liabilities:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Notes payable
(excluding capital leases)
 
$
4,343

 
 
$
0

 
 
 
$
0

 
 
 
$
4,992

 
 
 
$
4,992

 
Obligation to Japanese
policyholder protection
corporation
 
23

 
 
0

 
 
 
0

 
 
 
23

 
 
 
23

 
Total liabilities
 
$
4,366

 
 
$
0

 
 
 
$
0

 
 
 
$
5,015

 
 
 
$
5,015

 


Fair Value of Financial Instruments

U.S. GAAP requires disclosure of the fair value of certain financial instruments including those that are not carried at fair value. The carrying amounts for cash and cash equivalents, receivables, accrued investment income, accounts payable, cash collateral and payables for security transactions approximated their fair values due to the short-term nature of these instruments. Liabilities for future policy benefits and unpaid policy claims are not financial instruments as defined by GAAP.

Fixed maturities, perpetual securities, and equity securities

We determine the fair values of our fixed maturity securities, perpetual securities, and privately issued equity securities using the following approaches or techniques: price quotes and valuations from third party pricing vendors (including quoted market prices readily available from public exchange markets) and non-binding price quotes we obtain from outside brokers.

Prior to March 31, 2013, we had used a discounted cash flow (DCF) pricing model to value certain of our privately issued securities. Our DCF pricing model incorporated an option adjusted spread and utilized various market inputs we obtained from both active and inactive markets. The estimated fair values developed by the DCF pricing model were most sensitive to prevailing credit spreads, the level of interest rates (yields) and interest rate volatility. Credit spreads were derived from a widely used global bond index to create a credit matrix which took into account the current credit spread, ratings and remaining time to maturity, and subordination levels for securities that were included in the bond index. The index provided a broad-based measure of the global fixed-income bond market. Beginning March 31, 2013, to reflect the impact of the persistent economic environment and the changing regulatory framework, we engaged a third party pricing vendor to develop valuation models to determine fair values of these securities. These models were also DCF models, but also use information from related markets, specifically the credit default swap (CDS) market to estimate expected cash flows. These models take into consideration any unique characteristics of the securities and make various adjustments to arrive at an appropriate issuer-specific loss adjusted credit curve. This credit curve is then used with the relevant recovery rates to estimate expected cash flows and modeling of additional features, including illiquidity adjustments, if necessary, to price the bond by discounting those loss adjusted cash flows. In cases where a credit curve can not be developed from the specific security features, the valuation methodology takes into consideration other market observable inputs, including: 1) the most appropriate comparable bond(s) of the issuer; 2) issuer-specific CDS spreads; 3) bonds or CDS spreads of comparable issuers with similar characteristics such as rating, geography, or sector; or 4) bond indices that are comparative in rating, industry, maturity and region.

The pricing data and market quotes we obtain from outside sources, including third party pricing services, are reviewed internally for reasonableness. If a fair value appears unreasonable, we will re-examine the inputs and assess the reasonableness of the pricing data with the vendor. Additionally, we may compare the inputs to relevant market indices and other performance measurements. The output of this analysis is presented to the Company's Credit Subcommittee, or CSC. Based on the analysis provided to the CSC, the valuation is confirmed or may be revised if there is evidence of a more appropriate estimate of fair value based on available market data. With the implementation of the pricing change associated with private placements previously noted, we have performed verification of the inputs and calculations in the models to confirm that the valuations represent reasonable estimates of fair value.

The fixed maturities classified as Level 3 consist of securities for which there are limited or no observable valuation inputs. For Level 3 securities that are investment grade, we estimate the fair value of these securities by obtaining non-binding broker quotes from a limited number of brokers. These brokers base their quotes on a combination of their knowledge of the current pricing environment and market conditions. We consider these inputs to be unobservable. For Level 3 investments that are below-investment-grade securities, we consider a variety of significant valuation inputs in the valuation process, including forward exchange rates, yen swap rates, dollar swap rates, interest rate volatilities, credit spread data on specific issuers, assumed default and default recovery rates, and certain probability assumptions. In obtaining these valuation inputs, we have determined that certain pricing assumptions and data used by our pricing sources are difficult to validate or corroborate by the market and/or appear to be internally developed rather than observed in or corroborated by the market. The use of these unobservable valuation inputs causes more subjectivity in the valuation process for these securities.

Historically, we have not adjusted the quotes or prices we obtain from the pricing services and brokers we use.

The following tables present the pricing sources for the fair values of our fixed maturities, perpetual securities, and equity securities.
































 
 
March 31, 2013
(In millions)
 
Quoted Prices in Active Markets for Identical Assets
(Level 1)
 
Significant Observable Inputs
(Level 2)
 
Significant Unobservable Inputs
(Level 3)
 
Total
Fair
Value
Securities available for sale, carried at fair value:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
      Fixed maturities:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
         Government and agencies:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
            Third party pricing vendor
 
 
$
12,190

 
 
 
$
704

 
 
 
$
0

 
 
 
$
12,894

 
               Total government and agencies
 
 
12,190

 
 
 
704

 
 
 
0

 
 
 
12,894

 
         Municipalities:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
            Third party pricing vendor
 
 
0

 
 
 
1,161

 
 
 
0

 
 
 
1,161

 
               Total municipalities
 
 
0

 
 
 
1,161

 
 
 
0

 
 
 
1,161

 
         Mortgage- and asset-backed securities:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
            Third party pricing vendor
 
 
0

 
 
 
515

 
 
 
0

 
 
 
515

 
            Broker/other
 
 
0

 
 
 
0

 
 
 
439

 
 
 
439

 
               Total mortgage- and asset-backed securities
 
 
0

 
 
 
515

 
 
 
439

 
 
 
954

 
         Public utilities:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
            Third party pricing vendor
 
 
0

 
 
 
8,125

 
 
 
0

 
 
 
8,125

 
            Broker/other
 
 
0

 
 
 
25

 
 
 
0

 
 
 
25

 
               Total public utilities
 
 
0

 
 
 
8,150

 
 
 
0

 
 
 
8,150

 
         Sovereign and supranational:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
            Third party pricing vendor
 
 
0

 
 
 
1,420

 
 
 
0

 
 
 
1,420

 
            Broker/other
 
 
0

 
 
 
332

 
 
 
0

 
 
 
332

 
               Total sovereign and supranational
 
 
0

 
 
 
1,752

 
 
 
0

 
 
 
1,752

 
         Banks/financial institutions:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
            Third party pricing vendor
 
 
0

 
 
 
6,945

 
 
 
0

 
 
 
6,945

 
            Broker/other
 
 
0

 
 
 
0

 
 
 
26

 
 
 
26

 
               Total banks/financial institutions
 
 
0

 
 
 
6,945

 
 
 
26

 
 
 
6,971

 
         Other corporate:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
            Third party pricing vendor
 
 
0

 
 
 
24,256

 
 
 
0

 
 
 
24,256

 
            Broker/other
 
 
0

 
 
 
138

 
 
 
0

 
 
 
138

 
               Total other corporate
 
 
0

 
 
 
24,394

 
 
 
0

 
 
 
24,394

 
                  Total fixed maturities
 
 
12,190

 
 
 
43,621

 
 
 
465

 
 
 
56,276

 
      Perpetual securities:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
         Banks/financial institutions:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
            Third party pricing vendor
 
 
0

 
 
 
2,915

 
 
 
0

 
 
 
2,915

 
               Total banks/financial institutions
 
 
0

 
 
 
2,915

 
 
 
0

 
 
 
2,915

 
         Other corporate:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
            Third party pricing vendor
 
 
0

 
 
 
218

 
 
 
0

 
 
 
218

 
               Total other corporate
 
 
0

 
 
 
218

 
 
 
0

 
 
 
218

 
                  Total perpetual securities
 
 
0

 
 
 
3,133

 
 
 
0

 
 
 
3,133

 
      Equity securities:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
            Third party pricing vendor
 
 
15

 
 
 
5

 
 
 
0

 
 
 
20

 
            Broker/other
 
 
0

 
 
 
0

 
 
 
4

 
 
 
4

 
               Total equity securities
 
 
15

 
 
 
5

 
 
 
4

 
 
 
24

 
                     Total securities available for sale
 
 
$
12,205

 
 
 
$
46,759

 
 
 
$
469

 
 
 
$
59,433

 


 
 
March 31, 2013
(In millions)
 
Quoted Prices in Active Markets for Identical Assets
(Level 1)
 
Significant Observable Inputs
(Level 2)
 
Significant Unobservable Inputs
(Level 3)
 
Total
Fair
Value
Securities held to maturity, carried at amortized cost:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
      Fixed maturities:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
         Government and agencies:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
            Third party pricing vendor
 
 
$
26,760

 
 
 
$
0

 
 
 
$
0

 
 
 
$
26,760

 
               Total government and agencies
 
 
26,760

 
 
 
0

 
 
 
0

 
 
 
26,760

 
         Municipalities:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
            Third party pricing vendor
 
 
0

 
 
 
517

 
 
 
0

 
 
 
517

 
               Total municipalities
 
 
0

 
 
 
517

 
 
 
0

 
 
 
517

 
         Mortgage- and asset-backed securities:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
            Third party pricing vendor
 
 
0

 
 
 
26

 
 
 
0

 
 
 
26

 
            Broker/other
 
 
0

 
 
 
0

 
 
 
55

 
 
 
55

 
               Total mortgage- and asset-backed securities
 
 
0

 
 
 
26

 
 
 
55

 
 
 
81

 
         Public utilities:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
            Third party pricing vendor
 
 
0

 
 
 
4,512

 
 
 
0

 
 
 
4,512

 
               Total public utilities
 
 
0

 
 
 
4,512

 
 
 
0

 
 
 
4,512

 
         Sovereign and supranational:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
            Third party pricing vendor
 
 
0

 
 
 
3,073

 
 
 
0

 
 
 
3,073

 
               Total sovereign and supranational
 
 
0

 
 
 
3,073

 
 
 
0

 
 
 
3,073

 
         Banks/financial institutions:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
            Third party pricing vendor
 
 
0

 
 
 
7,953

 
 
 
0

 
 
 
7,953

 
               Total banks/financial institutions
 
 
0

 
 
 
7,953

 
 
 
0

 
 
 
7,953

 
         Other corporate:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
            Third party pricing vendor
 
 
0

 
 
 
4,151

 
 
 
0

 
 
 
4,151

 
               Total other corporate
 
 
0

 
 
 
4,151

 
 
 
0

 
 
 
4,151

 
                  Total securities held to maturity
 
 
$
26,760

 
 
 
$
20,232

 
 
 
$
55

 
 
 
$
47,047

 

 
 
December 31, 2012
(In millions)
 
Quoted Prices in Active Markets
for Identical Assets
(Level 1)
 
Significant Observable
Inputs
(Level 2)
 
Significant Unobservable Inputs
(Level 3)
 
Total
Fair
Value
Securities available for sale, carried at fair value:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
      Fixed maturities:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
         Government and agencies:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
            Third party pricing vendor
 
 
$
12,265

 
 
 
$
685

 
 
 
$
0

 
 
 
$
12,950

 
            DCF pricing model
 
 
0

 
 
 
47

 
 
 
0

 
 
 
47

 
               Total government and agencies
 
 
12,265

 
 
 
732

 
 
 
0

 
 
 
12,997

 
         Municipalities:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
            Third party pricing vendor
 
 
0

 
 
 
1,177

 
 
 
0

 
 
 
1,177

 
            DCF pricing model
 
 
0

 
 
 
18

 
 
 
0

 
 
 
18

 
               Total municipalities
 
 
0

 
 
 
1,195

 
 
 
0

 
 
 
1,195

 
         Mortgage- and asset-backed securities:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
            Third party pricing vendor
 
 
0

 
 
 
682

 
 
 
0

 
 
 
682

 
            DCF pricing model
 
 
0

 
 
 
11

 
 
 
0

 
 
 
11

 
            Broker/other
 
 
0

 
 
 
0

 
 
 
338

 
 
 
338

 
               Total mortgage- and asset-backed securities
 
 
0

 
 
 
693

 
 
 
338

 
 
 
1,031

 
         Public utilities:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
            Third party pricing vendor
 
 
0

 
 
 
5,144

 
 
 
0

 
 
 
5,144

 
            DCF pricing model
 
 
0

 
 
 
2,908

 
 
 
420

 
 
 
3,328

 
            Broker/other
 
 
0

 
 
 
25

 
 
 
0

 
 
 
25

 
               Total public utilities
 
 
0

 
 
 
8,077

 
 
 
420

 
 
 
8,497

 
         Sovereign and supranational:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
            Third party pricing vendor
 
 
0

 
 
 
540

 
 
 
0

 
 
 
540

 
            DCF pricing model
 
 
0

 
 
 
619

 
 
 
418

 
 
 
1,037

 
            Broker/other
 
 
0

 
 
 
495

 
 
 
0

 
 
 
495

 
               Total sovereign and supranational
 
 
0

 
 
 
1,654

 
 
 
418

 
 
 
2,072

 
         Banks/financial institutions:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
            Third party pricing vendor
 
 
0

 
 
 
4,257

 
 
 
0

 
 
 
4,257

 
            DCF pricing model
 
 
0

 
 
 
2,136

 
 
 
444

 
 
 
2,580

 
            Broker/other
 
 
0

 
 
 
217

 
 
 
580

 
 
 
797

 
               Total banks/financial institutions
 
 
0

 
 
 
6,610

 
 
 
1,024

 
 
 
7,634

 
         Other corporate:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
            Third party pricing vendor
 
 
0

 
 
 
18,093

 
 
 
0

 
 
 
18,093

 
            DCF pricing model
 
 
0

 
 
 
4,747

 
 
 
575

 
 
 
5,322

 
            Broker/other
 
 
0

 
 
 
1

 
 
 
411

 
 
 
412

 
               Total other corporate
 
 
0

 
 
 
22,841

 
 
 
986

 
 
 
23,827

 
                  Total fixed maturities
 
 
12,265

 
 
 
41,802

 
 
 
3,186

 
 
 
57,253

 
      Perpetual securities:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
         Banks/financial institutions:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
            Third party pricing vendor
 
 
0

 
 
 
283

 
 
 
0

 
 
 
283

 
            DCF pricing model
 
 
0

 
 
 
3,452

 
 
 
215

 
 
 
3,667

 
               Total banks/financial institutions
 
 
0

 
 
 
3,735

 
 
 
215

 
 
 
3,950

 
(In millions)
 
Quoted Prices in Active Markets
for Identical Assets
(Level 1)
 
Significant Observable
Inputs
(Level 2)
 
Significant Unobservable Inputs
(Level 3)
 
Total
Fair
Value
         Other corporate:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
            DCF pricing model
 
 
0

 
 
 
352

 
 
 
0

 
 
 
352

 
               Total other corporate
 
 
0

 
 
 
352

 
 
 
0

 
 
 
352

 
                  Total perpetual securities
 
 
0

 
 
 
4,087

 
 
 
215

 
 
 
4,302

 
      Equity securities:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
            Third party pricing vendor
 
 
13

 
 
 
0

 
 
 
0

 
 
 
13

 
            DCF pricing model
 
 
0

 
 
 
6

 
 
 
0

 
 
 
6

 
            Broker/other
 
 
0

 
 
 
0

 
 
 
4

 
 
 
4

 
               Total equity securities
 
 
13

 
 
 
6

 
 
 
4

 
 
 
23

 
                     Total securities available for sale
 
 
$
12,278

 
 
 
$
45,895

 
 
 
$
3,405

 
 
 
$
61,578

 

 
 
December 31, 2012
(In millions)
 
Quoted Prices in Active Markets
for Identical Assets
(Level 1)
 
Significant Observable
Inputs
(Level 2)
 
Significant Unobservable Inputs
(Level 3)
 
Total
Fair
Value
Securities held to maturity, carried at amortized cost:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
      Fixed maturities:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
         Government and agencies:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
            Third party pricing vendor
 
 
$
32,332

 
 
 
$
0

 
 
 
$
0

 
 
 
$
32,332

 
               Total government and agencies
 
 
32,332

 
 
 
0

 
 
 
0

 
 
 
32,332

 
         Municipalities:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
            Third party pricing vendor
 
 
0

 
 
 
464

 
 
 
0

 
 
 
464

 
            DCF pricing model
 
 
0

 
 
 
56

 
 
 
0

 
 
 
56

 
               Total municipalities
 
 
0

 
 
 
520

 
 
 
0

 
 
 
520

 
         Mortgage- and asset-backed securities:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
            Third party pricing vendor
 
 
0

 
 
 
30

 
 
 
0

 
 
 
30

 
            Broker/other
 
 
0

 
 
 
0

 
 
 
64

 
 
 
64

 
               Total mortgage- and asset-backed securities
 
 
0

 
 
 
30

 
 
 
64

 
 
 
94

 
         Public utilities:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
            Third party pricing vendor
 
 
0

 
 
 
58

 
 
 
0

 
 
 
58

 
            DCF pricing model
 
 
0

 
 
 
4,993

 
 
 
0

 
 
 
4,993

 
               Total public utilities
 
 
0

 
 
 
5,051

 
 
 
0

 
 
 
5,051

 
         Sovereign and supranational:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
            Third party pricing vendor
 
 
0

 
 
 
370

 
 
 
0

 
 
 
370

 
            DCF pricing model
 
 
0

 
 
 
2,947

 
 
 
0

 
 
 
2,947

 
               Total sovereign and supranational
 
 
0

 
 
 
3,317

 
 
 
0

 
 
 
3,317

 
         Banks/financial institutions:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
            Third party pricing vendor
 
 
0

 
 
 
254

 
 
 
0

 
 
 
254

 
            DCF pricing model
 
 
0

 
 
 
8,737

 
 
 
0

 
 
 
8,737

 
               Total banks/financial institutions
 
 
0

 
 
 
8,991

 
 
 
0

 
 
 
8,991

 
         Other corporate:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
            Third party pricing vendor
 
 
0

 
 
 
122

 
 
 
0

 
 
 
122

 
            DCF pricing model
 
 
0

 
 
 
4,414

 
 
 
0

 
 
 
4,414

 
               Total other corporate
 
 
0

 
 
 
4,536

 
 
 
0

 
 
 
4,536

 
                  Total securities held to maturity
 
 
$
32,332

 
 
 
$
22,445

 
 
 
$
64

 
 
 
$
54,841

 

The following is a discussion of the determination of fair value of our remaining financial instruments.

Derivatives

We use derivative instruments to manage the risk associated with certain assets. However, the derivative instrument may not be classified in the same fair value hierarchy level as the associated asset. Inputs used to value derivatives include, but are not limited to, interest rates, credit spreads, foreign currency forward and spot rates, and interest volatility.

The fair values of the foreign currency forwards associated with certain fixed-maturity securities, the foreign currency options, the foreign currency swaps associated with our senior notes and subordinated debentures, and the interest rate swap associated with our yen-denominated notes are based on the amounts we would expect to receive or pay. The determination of the fair value of these derivatives is based on observable market inputs, therefore they are classified as Level 2.

For derivatives associated with VIEs where we are the primary beneficiary, we are not the direct counterparty to the swap contracts. As a result, the fair value measurements incorporate the credit risk of the collateral associated with the VIE. We receive valuations from a third party pricing vendor for these derivatives. Based on an analysis of these derivatives and a review of the methodology employed by the pricing vendor, we determined that due to the long duration of these swaps and the need to extrapolate from short-term observable data to derive and measure long-term inputs, certain inputs, assumptions and judgments are required to value future cash flows that cannot be corroborated by current inputs or current observable market data. As a result, the derivatives associated with our consolidated VIEs are classified as Level 3 of the fair value hierarchy.

Notes payable

The fair values of our publicly issued notes payable classified as Level 3 were obtained from a limited number of independent brokers. These brokers base their quotes on a combination of their knowledge of the current pricing environment and market conditions. We consider these inputs to be unobservable. The fair values of our yen-denominated loans approximate their carrying values.

Obligation to Japanese policyholder protection corporation

The fair value of the obligation to the Japanese policyholder protection corporation classified as Level 3 is our estimated share of the industry's obligation calculated on a pro rata basis by projecting our percentage of the industry's premiums and reserves and applying that percentage to the total industry obligation payable in future years. We consider our inputs for this valuation to be unobservable.
Level 3 Rollforward and Transfers between Hierarchy Levels

The following tables present the changes in fair value of our available-for-sale investments and derivatives classified as Level 3.
Three Months Ended
March 31, 2013
 
Fixed Maturities
 
Perpetual
Securities
 
Equity
Securities
 
Derivatives (1)
 
 
 
(In millions)
Mortgage-
and
Asset-
Backed
Securities
 
Public
Utilities
 
Sovereign
and
Supranational
 
Banks/
Financial
Institutions
 
Other
Corporate
 
Banks/
Financial
Institutions
 
 
 
Interest
Rate
Swaps
 
Foreign
Currency
Swaps
 
Credit
Default
Swaps
 
Total
 
Balance, beginning of period
$
338

 
$
420

 
$
418

 
$
1,024

 
$
986

 
$
215

 
$
4

 
$
29

 
$
(172
)
 
$
(65
)
 
$
3,197

 
Realized investment gains (losses) included
in earnings
0

 
0

 
0

 
0

 
0

 
0

 
0

 
(4
)
 
(5
)
 
11

 
2

 
Unrealized gains (losses) included in other
comprehensive income (loss)
(21
)
 
(20
)
 
0

 
(1
)
 
0

 
0

 
0

 
0

 
(7
)
 
0

 
(49
)
 
Purchases, issuances, sales and settlements:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Purchases
0

 
0

 
0

 
0

 
0

 
0

 
0

 
0

 
0

 
0

 
0

 
Issuances
0

 
0

 
0

 
0

 
0

 
0

 
0

 
0

 
0

 
0

 
0

 
Sales
0

 
(400
)
 
0

 
0

 
0

 
0

 
0

 
0

 
0

 
0

 
(400
)
 
Settlements
(3
)
 
0

 
0

 
0

 
0

 
0

 
0

 
0

 
0

 
0

 
(3
)
 
Transfers into Level 3(2)
125

 
0

 
0

 
0

 
0

 
0

 
0

 
0

 
0

 
0

 
125

 
Transfers out of Level 3(3)
0

 
0

 
(418
)
 
(997
)
 
(986
)
 
(215
)
 
0

 
0

 
0

 
0

 
(2,616
)
 
Balance, end of period
$
439

 
$
0

 
$
0

 
$
26

 
$
0

 
$
0

 
$
4

 
$
25

 
$
(184
)
 
$
(54
)
 
$
256

 
Changes in unrealized gains (losses) relating
to Level 3 assets and liabilities still held at
the end of the period included in realized
investment gains (losses)
$
0

 
$
0

 
$
0

 
$
0

 
$
0

 
$
0

 
$
0

 
$
(4
)
 
$
(5
)
 
$
11

 
$
2

 

(1) Derivative assets and liabilities are presented net
(2) Due to a lack of visibility to observe significant inputs to price
(3) A result of changing our pricing methodology to a valuation method that uses observable market data as significant inputs to estimate fair value

Three Months Ended
March 31, 2012
  
Fixed Maturities
 
Perpetual
Securities
 
Equity
Securities
 
Derivatives (1)
 
  
(In millions)
Mortgage-
and
Asset-
Backed
Securities
 
Public
Utilities
 
Sovereign
and
Supranational
 
Banks/
Financial
Institutions
 
Other
Corporate
 
Banks/
Financial
Institutions
 
 
 
Interest
Rate
Swaps
 
Foreign
Currency
Swaps
 
Credit
Default
Swaps
 
Total
Balance, beginning of period
$
394

 
$
422

 
$
434

 
$
1,074

 
$
1,105

 
$
526

 
$
4

 
$
30

 
$
(56
)
 
$
(130
)
 
$
3,803

Realized investment gains
(losses) included in earnings
0

 
0

 
0

 
0

 
2

 
49

 
0

 
(2
)
 
13

 
33

 
95

Unrealized gains (losses)
included in other
comprehensive income (loss)
(23
)
 
(13
)
 
(16
)
 
23

 
(38
)
 
6

 
0

 
0

 
(12
)
 
0

 
(73
)
Purchases, issuances, sales
and settlements:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Purchases
0

 
0

 
0

 
0

 
0

 
0

 
0

 
0

 
0

 
0

 
0

Issuances
0

 
0

 
0

 
0

 
0

 
0

 
0

 
0

 
0

 
0

 
0

Sales
0

 
0

 
0

 
0

 
(34
)
 
(256
)
 
0

 
0

 
0

 
0

 
(290
)
Settlements
(4
)
 
0

 
0

 
0

 
0

 
0

 
0

 
0

 
(24
)
 
0

 
(28
)
Transfers into Level 3
0

 
0

 
0

 
0

 
0

 
0

 
0

 
0

 
0

 
0

 
0

Transfers out of Level 3
0

 
0

 
0

 
0

 
0

 
0

 
0

 
0

 
0

 
0

 
0

Balance, end of period
$
367

 
$
409

 
$
418

 
$
1,097

 
$
1,035

 
$
325

 
$
4

 
$
28

 
$
(79
)
 
$
(97
)
 
$
3,507

Changes in unrealized gains
(losses) relating to Level 3
assets and liabilities still held
at the end of the period
included in realized
investment gains (losses)
$
0

 
$
0

 
$
0

 
$
0

 
$
0

 
$
0

 
$
0

 
$
(2
)
 
$
13

 
$
33

 
$
44

(1) Derivative assets and liabilities are presented net
Transfers into and/or out of Level 3 are attributable to a change in the observability of inputs. The most significant transfer out of Level 3 into Level 2 during the three-month period ended March 31, 2013 related to our callable reverse dual-currency bonds (RDCs). RDCs are securities that have principal denominated in yen while paying U.S. dollar (USD) coupons. The market standard approach is to use implied volatility to value options or instruments with optionality because historical volatility may not represent current market participants' expectations about future volatility. Under our previous valuation approach, we used historical foreign exchange volatility as an input for valuing these investments. Given the importance of this input to the overall valuation of these RDCs and the determination of this input to be unobservable, we made the decision at December 31, 2011 to move these holdings to Level 3 of the fair value hierarchy. During the first quarter of 2013, we implemented a new valuation methodology for these securities that relies on comparable bonds in the market, the observable forward foreign exchange curve and other market inputs. Given that the significant inputs to the valuation of these items are now based on observable data, effective March 31, 2013, we have transferred these bonds from Level 3 to Level 2 of the fair value hierarchy.

In addition to the callable RDCs, we transferred certain other corporate securities from Level 3 to Level 2 in the first quarter of 2013. Prices for these securities were previously obtained from brokers and/or arrangers with minimal transparency around how the valuation was determined. Similar to the RDCs, these securities are now valued using the same methodology described above for our other privately issued securities.

There were no transfers between Level 1 and 2 for the three-month periods ended March 31, 2013 and 2012.

Fair Value Sensitivity


Level 3 Significant Unobservable Input Sensitivity

The following tables summarize the significant unobservable inputs used in the valuation of our Level 3 available-for-sale investments and derivatives. Included in the tables are the inputs or range of possible inputs that have an effect on the overall valuation of the financial instruments.
March 31, 2013
(In millions)
 
Fair Value
 
Valuation Technique(s)
 
Unobservable Input
 
Range
(Weighted Average)
 
Assets:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
  Securities available for sale, carried at fair value:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
    Fixed maturities:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
       Mortgage- and asset-backed securities
 
 
$
439

 
 
Consensus pricing
 
Offered quotes
 
N/A
(e) 
       Banks/financial institutions
 
 
26

 
 
Consensus pricing
 
Offered quotes
 
N/A
(e) 
    Equity securities
 
 
4

 
 
Net asset value
 
Offered quotes
 
$1-$868 ($8)
 
  Other assets:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 

 
       Interest rate swaps
 
 
26

 
 
Discounted cash flow
 
Base correlation
 
    45% - 56% (50%)
(a) 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
CDS spreads
 
91 - 143 (120) bps
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Recovery rate
 
37.00%
 
       Foreign currency swaps
 
 
35

 
 
Discounted cash flow
 
Interest rates (USD)
 
2.01% - 3.02%
(b) 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Interest rates (JPY)
 
.69% - 1.84%
(c) 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
CDS spreads
 
22 - 129 bps
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Foreign exchange rates
 
21.10%
(d) 
 
 
 
5

 
 
Discounted cash flow
 
Interest rates (USD)
 
2.01% - 3.02%
(b) 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Interest rates (JPY)
 
.69% - 1.84%
(c) 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
CDS spreads
 
15 - 125 bps
 
 
 
 
90

 
 
Discounted cash flow
 
Interest rates (USD)
 
2.01% - 3.02%
(b) 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Interest rates (JPY)
 
.69% - 1.84%
(c) 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Foreign exchange rates
 
21.10%
(d) 
       Credit default swaps
 
 
2

 
 
Discounted cash flow
 
Base correlation
 
    45% - 56% (50%)
(a) 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
CDS spreads
 
91 - 143 (120) bps
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Recovery rate
 
37.00%
 
            Total assets
 
 
$
627

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 

(a) Weighted-average range of base correlations for our bespoke tranches for attachment and detachment points corresponding to market indices
(b) Inputs derived from U.S. long-term rates to accommodate long maturity nature of our swaps
(c) Inputs derived from Japan long-term rates to accommodate long maturity nature of our swaps
(d) Based on 10 year volatility of JPY/USD exchange rate
(e) N/A represents securities where we receive unadjusted broker quotes and for which there is no transparency into the providers' valuation techniques or unobservable inputs.
March 31, 2013
(In millions)
 
Fair Value
 
Valuation Technique(s)
 
Unobservable Input
 
Range
(Weighted Average)
 
Liabilities:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
       Interest rate swaps
 
 
$
1

 
 
Discounted cash flow
 
Base correlation
 
    45% - 56% (50%)
(a) 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
CDS spreads
 
91 - 143 (120) bps
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Recovery rate
 
37.00%
 
       Foreign currency swaps
 
 
114

 
 
Discounted cash flow
 
Interest rates (USD)
 
2.01% - 3.02%
(b) 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Interest rates (JPY)
 
.69% - 1.84%
(c) 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
CDS spreads
 
35 - 157 bps
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Foreign exchange rates
 
21.10%
(d) 
 
 
 
46

 
 
Discounted cash flow
 
Interest rates (USD)
 
2.01% - 3.02%
(b) 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Interest rates (JPY)
 
.69% - 1.84%
(c) 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
CDS spreads
 
19 - 204 bps
 
 
 
 
154

 
 
Discounted cash flow
 
Interest rates (USD)
 
2.01% - 3.02%
(b) 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Interest rates (JPY)
 
.69% - 1.84%
(c) 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Foreign exchange rates
 
21.10%
(d) 
       Credit default swaps
 
 
56

 
 
Discounted cash flow
 
Base correlations
 
    45% - 56% (50%)
(a) 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
CDS spreads
 
91 - 143 (120) bps
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Recovery rate
 
37.00%
 
            Total liabilities
 
 
$
371

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 

(a) Weighted-average range of base correlations for our bespoke tranches for attachment and detachment points corresponding to market indices
(b) Inputs derived from U.S. long-term rates to accommodate long maturity nature of our swaps
(c) Inputs derived from Japan long-term rates to accommodate long maturity nature of our swaps
(d) Based on 10 year volatility of JPY/USD exchange rate

December 31, 2012
(In millions)
 
Fair Value
 
Valuation Technique(s)
 
Unobservable Input
 
Range
(Weighted Average)
 
Assets:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
  Securities available for sale, carried at fair value:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
    Fixed maturities:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
       Mortgage- and asset-backed securities
 
 
$
338

 
 
Consensus pricing
 
Offered quotes
 
N/A
(e) 
       Public utilities
 
 
420

 
 
Discounted cash flow
 
Historical volatility
 
7.36%
 
       Sovereign and supranational
 
 
418

 
 
Discounted cash flow
 
Historical volatility
 
7.36%
 
       Banks/financial institutions
 
 
444

 
 
Discounted cash flow
 
Historical volatility
 
7.36%
 
 
 
 
580

 
 
Consensus pricing
 
Offered quotes
 
N/A
(e) 
       Other corporate
 
 
575

 
 
Discounted cash flow
 
Historical volatility
 
7.36%
 
 
 
 
411

 
 
Consensus pricing
 
Offered quotes
 
N/A
(e) 
    Perpetual securities:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
       Banks/financial institutions
 
 
215

 
 
Discounted cash flow
 
Historical volatility
 
7.36%
 
    Equity securities
 
 
4

 
 
Net asset value
 
Offered quotes
 
$2-$943 ($8)
 
  Other assets:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
       Interest rate swaps
 
 
32

 
 
Discounted cash flow
 
Base correlation
 
    49% - 50%
(a) 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
CDS spreads
 
91 - 152 bps
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Recovery rate
 
37.00%
 
       Foreign currency swaps
 
 
51

 
 
Discounted cash flow
 
Interest rates (USD)
 
1.84% - 2.84%
(b) 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Interest rates (JPY)
 
.84% - 2.05%
(c) 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
CDS spreads
 
12 - 117 bps
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Foreign exchange rates
 
20.65%
(d) 
 
 
 
4

 
 
Discounted cash flow
 
Interest rates (USD)
 
1.84% - 2.84%
(b) 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Interest rates (JPY)
 
.84% - 2.05%
(c) 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
CDS spreads
 
12 - 126 bps
 
 
 
 
102

 
 
Discounted cash flow
 
Interest rates (USD)
 
1.84% - 2.84%
(b) 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Interest rates (JPY)
 
.84% - 2.05%
(c) 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Foreign exchange rates
 
20.65%
(d) 
       Credit default swaps
 
 
2

 
 
Discounted cash flow
 
Base correlation
 
    49% - 50%
(a) 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
CDS spreads
 
91 - 152 bps
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Recovery rate
 
37.00%
 
            Total assets
 
 
$
3,596

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
(a) Weighted-average range of base correlations for our bespoke tranches for attachment and detachment points corresponding to market indices
(b) Inputs derived from U.S. long-term rates to accommodate long maturity nature of our swaps
(c) Inputs derived from Japan long-term rates to accommodate long maturity nature of our swaps
(d) Based on 10 year volatility of JPY/USD exchange rate
(e) N/A represents securities where we receive unadjusted broker quotes and for which there is no transparency into the providers' valuation techniques or unobservable inputs.








December 31, 2012
 
(In millions)
 
Fair Value
 
Valuation Technique(s)
 
Unobservable Input
 
Range
(Weighted Average)
 
Liabilities:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
       Interest rate swaps
 
 
$
3

 
 
Discounted cash flow
 
Base correlation
 
    49% - 50%
(a) 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
CDS spreads
 
91 - 152 bps
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Recovery rate
 
37.00%
 
       Foreign currency swaps
 
 
118

 
 
Discounted cash flow
 
Interest rates (USD)
 
1.84% - 2.84%
(b) 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Interest rates (JPY)
 
.84% - 2.05%
(c) 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
CDS spreads
 
22 - 141 bps
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Foreign exchange rates
 
20.65%
(d) 
 
 
 
60

 
 
Discounted cash flow
 
Interest rates (USD)
 
1.84% - 2.84%
(b) 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Interest rates (JPY)
 
.84% - 2.05%
(c) 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
CDS spreads
 
25 - 186 bps
 
 
 
 
151

 
 
Discounted cash flow
 
Interest rates (USD)
 
1.84% - 2.84%
(b) 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Interest rates (JPY)
 
.84% - 2.05%
(c) 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Foreign exchange rates
 
20.65%
(d) 
       Credit default swaps
 
 
67

 
 
Discounted cash flow
 
Base correlations
 
    49% - 50%
(a) 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
CDS spreads
 
91 - 152 bps
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Recovery rate
 
37.00%
 
            Total liabilities
 
 
$
399

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
(a) Weighted-average range of base correlations for our bespoke tranches for attachment and detachment points corresponding to market indices
(b) Inputs derived from U.S. long-term rates to accommodate long maturity nature of our swaps
(c) Inputs derived from Japan long-term rates to accommodate long maturity nature of our swaps
(d) Based on 10 year volatility of JPY/USD exchange rate
The following is a discussion of the significant unobservable inputs or valuation technique used in determining the fair value of securities and derivatives classified as Level 3.

Annualized Historical Foreign Exchange Volatility

We own a portfolio of callable reverse dual-currency bonds (RDCs). RDCs are securities that have principal denominated in yen while paying U.S. dollar (USD) coupons. The market standard approach is to use implied volatility to value options or instruments with optionality because historical volatility may not represent current market participants' expectations about future volatility. Our use of historical foreign exchange volatility as an input for valuing these investments could result in a significant increase or decrease in fair value measurement, given the importance of this input to the overall valuation. Prior to March 31, 2013, historical volatility was an unobservable input in the determination of fair value of public utilities, sovereign and supranational, certain banks/financial institutions, and certain other corporate investments. As of March 31, 2013, we are no longer using this input in the valuation of these securities due to a change in valuation methodology as discussed previously.

Net Asset Value

We hold certain unlisted equity securities whose fair value is derived based on the financial statements published by the investee. These securities do not trade on an active market and the valuations derived are dependent on the availability of timely financial reporting of the investee. Net asset value is an unobservable input in the determination of fair value of equity securities.

Offered Quotes

In circumstances where our valuation model price is overridden because it implies a value that is not consistent with current market conditions, we will solicit bids from a limited number of brokers. We also receive unadjusted prices from brokers for our mortgage and asset-backed securities. These quotes are non-binding but are reflective of valuation best estimates at that particular point in time. Offered quotes are an unobservable input in the determination of fair value of mortgage- and asset-backed securities, certain banks/financial institutions, certain other corporate, and equity securities investments.

Interest Rates, CDS Spreads, Foreign Exchange Rates

The significant drivers of the valuation of the interest and foreign exchange swaps are interest rates, foreign exchange rates and CDS spreads. Our swaps have long maturities that increase the sensitivity of the swaps to interest rate fluctuations. Since most of our yen-denominated cross currency swaps are in a net liability position, an increase in interest rates will decrease the liabilities and increase the value of the swap.
Foreign exchange swaps also have a lump-sum final settlement of foreign exchange principal receivables at the termination of the swap. An increase in yen interest rates will decrease the value of the final settlement foreign exchange receivables and decrease the value of the swap, and an increase in USD interest rates increase the swap value.
A similar sensitivity pattern is observed for the foreign exchange rates. When the spot U.S. dollar/Japanese yen (USD/JPY) foreign exchange rate decreases and the swap is receiving a final exchange payment in JPY, the swap value will increase due to the appreciation of the JPY. Most of our swaps are designed to receive payments in JPY at the termination and will thus be impacted by the USD/JPY foreign exchange rate in this way. In cases where there is no final foreign exchange receivable in JPY and we are paying JPY as interest payments and receiving USD, a decrease in the foreign exchange rate will lead to a decrease in the swap value.

The extinguisher feature in most of our swaps results in a cessation of cash flows and no further payments between the parties to the swap in the event of a default on the referenced or underlying collateral. To price this feature, we apply the survival probability of the referenced entity to the projected cash flows. The survival probability uses the CDS spreads and recovery rates to adjust the present value of the cash flows. For extinguisher swaps with positive values, an increase in CDS spreads decreases the likelihood of receiving the final exchange payments and reduces the value of the swap.

Due to the long duration of these swaps and the need to extrapolate from short-term observable data to derive and measure long-term inputs, certain inputs, assumptions and judgments are required to value future cash flows that cannot be corroborated by current inputs or current observable market data.

Interest rates, CDS spreads, and foreign exchange rates are unobservable inputs in the determination of fair value of foreign currency swaps.


Base Correlations, CDS Spreads, Recovery Rates

Our CDOs are tranches on baskets of single-name credit default swaps. The risks in these types of synthetic CDOs come from the single-name CDS risk and the correlations between the single names. The valuation of synthetic CDOs is dependent on the calibration of market prices for interest rates, single name CDS default probabilities and base correlation using financial modeling tools. Since there is limited or no observable data available for these tranches, these base correlations must be obtained from commonly traded market tranches such as the CDX and iTraxx indices. From the historical prices of these indices, base correlations can be obtained to develop a pricing curve of CDOs with different seniorities. Since the reference entities of the market indices do not match those in our portfolio underlying the synthetic CDO to be valued, several processing steps are taken to map the securities in our portfolio to the indices. With the base correlation determined and the appropriate spreads selected, a valuation is calculated. An increase in the CDS spreads in the underlying portfolio leads to a decrease in the value due to higher probability of defaults and losses. The impact on the valuation due to base correlation depends on a number of factors, including the riskiness between market tranches and the modeled tranche based on our portfolio and the equivalence between detachment points in these tranches. Generally speaking, an increase in base correlation will decrease the value of the senior tranches while increasing the value of junior tranches. This may result in a positive or negative value change.
The CDO tranches in our portfolio are junior tranches and, due to the low level of credit support for these tranches, exhibit equity-like behavior. As a result, an increase in recovery rates tends to cause their values to decrease.
Our interest rate swaps are linked to the underlying synthetic CDOs. The valuation of these swaps is performed using a similar approach to that of the synthetic CDOs themselves; that is, the base correlation model is used to ensure consistency between the synthetic CDOs and the swaps.

Base correlations, CDS spreads, and recovery rates are unobservable inputs in the determination of fair value of credit default swaps and interest rate swaps.

For additional information on our investments and financial instruments, see the accompanying Notes 1, 3 and 4 and Notes 1, 3 and 4 of the Notes to the Consolidated Financial Statements in our annual report to shareholders for the year ended December 31, 2012.