EX-99.2 3 dex992.htm SLIDES PRESENTED DURING ALCOA INC. FIRST QUARTER 2009 EARNINGS CALL Slides presented during Alcoa Inc. first quarter 2009 earnings call
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1
st
Quarter 2009 Analyst Conference
April 7, 2009
Exhibit 99.2


2
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Alcoa Logo
Forward-Looking Statements
Today’s
discussion
may
include
“forward-looking
statements”
within
the
meaning
of
the
Private
Securities
Litigation
Reform
Act
of
1995.
Such
statements
relate
to
future
events
and
expectations
and
involve
known
and
unknown
risks
and
uncertainties.
Alcoa’s
actual
results
or
actions
may
differ
materially
from
those
projected
in
the
forward-looking
statements.
For
a
summary
of
the
specific
risk
factors
that
could
cause
results
to
differ
materially
from
those
expressed
in
the
forward-looking
statements,
please
refer
to
Alcoa’s
Form
10-K
for
the
year
ended
December
31,
2008
and
other
reports
filed
with
the
Securities
and
Exchange
Commission.


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Chuck McLane
Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer


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1st Quarter 2009 Financial Overview
Loss from continuing operations
$480 million or $0.59 per share
Revenue of $4.1 billion
Decrease of 27% sequentially
Decrease of 41% year-over-year
Average LME $1,359/mt
Decrease of 25% sequentially
Decrease of 50% year-over-year
Cash on hand of $1.1 billion
Debt-to-cap at 40.6%; down 190 basis points sequentially
Cash costs per ton
Alumina down 33% from 3Q08
Aluminum down 30% from 3Q08


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(in millions, except per share amounts)
4Q'08
1Q'09
Change
Sales
$5,688
$4,147
(27%)
Cost of Goods Sold
$5,277
$4,143
(21%)
   % of Sales
92.8%
99.9%
7.1 pts
SG&A
$273
$244
(11%)
   % of Sales
4.8%
5.9%
1.1 pts
Restructuring and Other Charges
$863
$69
(92%)
Interest Expense
$125
$114
(9%)
Other (Income) Expenses
$(36)
$30
nm
Effective Tax Rate
20.4%
39.5%
19.1 pts
Benefit for Taxes on Loss
$(238)
$(307)
29%
Loss from Continuing Operations
$(929)
$(470)
$459
Less: Net Income Attributable to Noncontrolling Interests
$0
$10
$10
Amounts Attributable to Alcoa Common Shareholders:
Loss from Continuing Operations
$(929)
$(480)
$449
Loss from Continuing Operations per Diluted Share
$(1.16)
$(0.59)
$0.57
Loss from Discontinued Operations
$(262)
$(17)
$245
Sequential Income Statement


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Restructuring & Other Special Items
(in millions, except per share amounts)
After-Tax
Amount
Earnings
Per Share
Income Statement
Classification
Segment
Loss from Continuing Operations
$(480)
$(0.59)
Other Items:
Restructuring and Other Charges
$(46)
$(0.06)
Restructuring
Corporate
Gain on Elkem / SAPA Swap
$133
$0.16
Other Income
Primary / Corporate
Loss on Shining Prospect (Rio Tinto)
$(118)
$(0.14)
Other Income
Corporate
Discrete Tax Item
$28
$0.03
Tax
Corporate
Total Other Items
$(0.01)


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1Q 2009 vs. 4Q 2008 Earnings Bridge
Loss from Continuing Operations excluding Restructuring & Other Special Items (in millions)
See Appendix for Reconciliation
($221)
($55)
$27
$20
$103
$34
($92)
($424)
$39
($477)
4Q08
Volume
Price/Mix
Currency
Productivity
SG&A /
R&D
LME
Bohai
&
Other
1Q09


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1Q 2009 vs. 1Q 2008 Earnings Bridge
Income (Loss) from Continuing Operations excluding Restructuring
&
Other Special Items (in millions)
$356
$(258)
$(74)
$198
$115
$45
$382
$(849)
$(67)
$57
$(477)
1Q08
Volume
Price/Mix
Currency
Productivity
SG&A / R&D
Curtailments
Noncontrolling
Interest
See Appendix for Reconciliation
LME
1Q09


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1Q 08
4Q 08
1Q 09
Production (kmt)
3,870
3,776
3,445
3
rd
Party Shipments (kmt)
1,995
2,123
1,737
3
rd
Party Revenue ($
million)
680
722
430
ATOI ($ million)
169
162
35
34% lower realized pricing sequentially,
matching LME decline on two-month lag
Lower production of 9% sequentially mainly due
to curtailments at Point Comfort
Benefited from lower energy costs, productivity
gains, and favorable currency impact
Cost of alumina produced down
approximately 33% from 3Q08
Alumina
1
st
Quarter Highlights
2
nd
Quarter Outlook
1
st
Quarter Business Conditions
Expect production to decline slightly as refinery
production is matched to smelter demand
Productivity programs continue to deliver results
Impact of start-up costs at Brazilian growth
projects


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1
st
Quarter Highlights
1Q 08
4Q 08
1Q 09
Production (kmt)
995
971
880
3
rd
Party Shipments
(kmt)
665
807
683
3
rd
Party Revenue ($
million)
1,877
1,580
844
3
rd
Party Price ($/mt)
2,801
2,125
1,567
ATOI ($ million)
307
(101)
(212)
Primary Metals
2
nd
Quarter Outlook
1
st
Quarter Business Conditions
Realized pricing down 26% sequentially
750kmt of production curtailments enacted
Non-cash Elkem
gain of $112 million
Benefit from procurement initiatives,
productivity improvements and LME linked
input costs reaching bottom line
Cost of aluminum produced down
approximately 30% from 3Q08
Current cash LME $1,426/mt, $66/mt higher
than 1
st
quarter average
Current USD slightly weaker than 1Q average
Massena East full curtailment by end of quarter
(100 kmt, net)
Anglesea
Power Plant maintenance outage  
Increasing benefit from procurement actions,
productivity improvement and other cost
controls


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Flat-Rolled Products
2
nd
Quarter Outlook
1
st
Quarter Business Conditions
($ million)
1Q 08
4Q 08
1Q 09
Global Rolled Products,
excl Russia & China
72
(9)
6
Hard Alloy Extrusions                   8
8
(1)
Russia, China & Other
(39)
(97)
(67)
Total
41
(98)
(62)
ATOI
Sequential improvement due to productivity
gains in Global Rigid Packaging, closure of
Bohai
foil plant and favorable currency impact
Continued customer destocking
Significant volume declines across all market
segments
Continued weakness in end markets
Gains from productivity and cost decreases


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Engineered Products and Solutions
1Q 08
4Q 08
1Q 09
Third Party Revenue ($ million)
1,395
1,258
1,158
ATOI ($ million)
140
65
96
ATOI% / Revenue
10.0
5.2
8.3
Strong productivity gains more than offset weak
market conditions
Share gains helped mitigate sales decline
Market conditions for Heavy Truck, Aerospace, and
Building and Construction worse than anticipated
Sales from the Automotive market less than
expected, only accounted for 3% of total sales
1
st
Quarter Highlights
1
st
Quarter Business Conditions
2
nd
Quarter Outlook
Further weakness in Aerospace due to declining
build rates
Decline in Commercial Building and Construction
demand expected to accelerate
Continued weakness in global transportation
markets
Productivity gains expected, despite worsening
market conditions


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Cash Flow Statement
(in millions)
1Q'08
4Q'08
1Q'09
Net Income (Loss)
$303
$(1,191)
$(497)
DD&A
314
292
283
Change in Working Capital
(581)
610
291
Taxes
(16)
(250)
(303)
Other Adjustments
(289)
1,185
(11)
Pension Contributions
(19)
(38)
(34)
Cash From Operating Activities
$(288)
$608
$(271)
Dividends to Shareholders
$(140)
$(136)
$(137)
Change in Debt
416
444
(305)
Dividends to Noncontrolling Interests
(39)
(102)
(77)
Contributions from Noncontrolling Interests
118
214
159
Share Repurchases
(430)
-
-
Share Issuances
-
-
876
Other Financing Activities
20
(43)
(13)
Cash From Financing Activities
$(55)
$377
$503
Capital Expenditures
$(748)
$(1,017)
$(471)
Sale of Investments
2
-
506
Proceeds from Sales of Assets
2,490
26
116
Additions to Investments
(1,215)
(27)
(29)
Acquisitions
(291)
-
18
Other Investing Activities
(13)
(5)
(4)
Cash From Investing Activities
$225
$(1,023)
$136
Debt-to-cap
at 40.6%


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Financial Plan Enhances Flexibility
Common stock issued
172.5 million shares
$876 million net proceeds
Convertible notes issued
$575 million
5.25% coupon and 22.5% conversion premium
Maturity: March 15, 2014
Quarterly dividend cut to $0.03 per share
Conserves $430 million of cash annually
Shining Prospect joint venture unwind
$500 million of $1 billion net proceeds received through 3/31/09
Strengthens Balance Sheet and Positions Alcoa to Capitalize on
Strategic Opportunities


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Balance Sheet / Liquidity Overview
Capitalization Summary
12/31/2008
3/31/2009
Short-term debt
$2,013
$1,013
Long-term debt
8,565
9,192
Total debt
$10,578
$10,205
Noncontrolling
interests
$2,597
$2,500 
Shareholders' equity
$11,735
$ 12,437 
Total capitalization
$24,910
$25,142
Debt-to-capital ratio
42.5%
40.6%
($ million)
Improved Commercial Paper
2 weeks prior to offering
2 weeks post offering
Credit Revolvers
($ billion)
5.2
5.2
5.2
5.2
($ billion)
Commercial Paper Outstanding
15 bps improvement in overnight CP spread
56 bps improvement in 1-week CP spread
Overnight
Overnight


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Klaus Kleinfeld
President and Chief Executive Officer


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Challenging Market Conditions in 2009
Alcoa End Markets: Current Assessment of 2009 Conditions
Source: Alcoa analysis


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Alcoa Logo
Global Demand Expected to Decline 7% in 2009
2008 Global Demand Growth Rate:  -3%
(2008 ex China: -8%)
2009 Global Demand Growth Rate:  -7%
(2009 ex China: -10%)
Source: Alcoa analysis
Brazil
Russia
Asia w/o China
North America
Europe
China
2008 vs. 2009
Projected Growth Rates
2009 Projected Consumption
6.4
5.0
4.3
0%
-15%
-9%
-15%
-12%
-12%
-5%
13.1
9%
10%
-5%
-8%
0.9
5%
Other*
4.0
-1%
-2%
* Other
consists
of:
Middle
East,
India,
Latin
America
ex
Brazil
and
Rest
of
World
34.5
2008
Actual
2009
Forecast
0.8
2009 Projected Aluminum Consumption by Region (in mmt)


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Historic Collapse in Metal Price -
57%
$1,000
$1,500
$2,000
$2,500
$3,000
$3,500
LME
cash
price/ton,
in
US$
and
global
inventory
1)
,
in
days
1) Reported Stocks : Comex, IAI, Japan Port , LME, & SME
-
57%
Reported Stocks,
Days of Consumption
LME Cash Price
57 Days of
Consumption
Source: IAI, Bloomberg
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60


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20
Curtailment Announcements –
16% of 2008 Production
Aluminum Supply: Curtailment Announcements by Region (annualized
kmt)
Note: As of 3/31/09
88
126
500
500
88
683
138
897
376
990
1,366
3,083
3,083
100
0%
10%
20%
50%
5%
15%
Average = 16%
38
0
214
1
326
200
80%
Curtailment % of Production
Executed
Not executed
412
1,719
2,296
3,933
5,722
Aug 08 Production
4,227
Africa
4,592
14,011
Eastern Europe
Oceania
North America
Western Europe
Russia
2,696
39,608
Asia / Middle East
Latin America
China
Source: Production -
CRU, IAI, and CNIA.  Curtailments –
Alcoa
Analysis, Reuters, Bloomberg, Company Statements, Mitsui Bussan, Platts.


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21
Alcoa Ahead of Industry Average
Aluminum Supply: Curtailment Announcements by Producer (annualized kmt)
1,769
2,317
3,990
4,049
4,494
10,788
11,352
38,759
2008 Production
Hydro
Chalco
Alcoa
Rio Tinto Alcan
UC Rusal
Other China
Other ROW
513
570
570
100
752
852
127
113
15%
895
1,408
469
2,128
25%
0%
10%
20%
513
30%
5%
2,128
173
514
240
44
Curtailment % of Production
Executed
Not executed
687
Note: As of 3/31/09
Average = 17%
Source: Production –
CRU. Curtailments –
Alcoa Analysis, Reuters, Bloomberg, Company Statements, Mitsui Bussan, Platts.


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China
Western World
Western World in Surplus Position
2009E Aluminum Supply / Demand Balance (in kmt)
Source: Alcoa analysis, CRU, IAI, as of 3/31/09
Jan-Feb 09 Primary Production 
Run Rate
11,000
Announced curtailments to be
implemented
0
Supply
11,000
Demand  (0% YOY change)
(13,100)
Deficit
(2,100)
Jan-Feb 09  Primary Production
Run Rate
24,400
Announced curtailments to be
implemented
(1,600)
Supply
22,800
Demand  (10% YOY decrease)
(21,400)
Surplus
1,400
Deficit
Surplus


23
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China
Western World
2009E Alumina Supply / Demand Balance (in kmt)
Source: Alcoa analysis, CRU, IAI, as of 3/31/09
Jan-Feb 09 Alumina Production 
Run Rate
19,000
Announced curtailments to be
implemented
(2,500)
Supply
16,500
Demand
(21,100)
Deficit
(4,600)
Jan-Feb 09  Alumina Production
Run Rate
52,600
Announced curtailments to be
implemented
(4,200)
Supply
48,400
Demand 
(43,800)
Surplus
4,600
Global
Equilibrium
Alumina Market Reaches Equilibrium in 2009
Supply
Demand
Balance


24
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Alcoa Logo
Improve Cash Flow and Balance Sheet
Operational
Financial
Procurement Efficiencies
Cost savings by 2010
Overhead Rationalizations
Cost savings by 2010
CapEx Reductions
Annual CapEx post 2009
Working Capital Initiatives
Cash Impact 2009
Equity and Equity-Linked Financings
Gross proceeds
Dividend Reduction
Annual cash savings
Asset Dispositions
Net proceeds
Holistic Alcoa Approach: Improved Cost Structure and Balance Sheet
$2,000M
$400M
$850M
$800M
$1,400M
$430M
$1,100M


25
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Alcoa Logo
Financial Actions Strengthen Liquidity Position
Initiative
Results / Status
Equity and Equity-Linked Financings
Target gross proceeds
Dividend Reduction
$0.03
per
common
share
per
quarter from
$0.17
Asset Dispositions
$1,100M
net
proceeds
$1,400M
gross
proceeds
Convertible offering oversubscribed
multiple times
$1,000M
from Shining Prospect unwind
$500M
received
to
date
$430M
annual
cash
savings
Financial Initiatives: Targets and Results
$1,000M
$430M
$1,400M
$1,100M
$0.03
per share
$1,100M


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Alcoa Logo
$293m Procurement Savings Realized to Date
Procurement Efficiencies: Reduction Targets
(millions)
Reduction Targets by Spend Category
Savings
$293
$1,500
$2,000
1Q09A
2009 Savings
Target vs. 2008
2010 Savings
Target vs. 2008



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2010 Capital Expenditures Will Decrease to $850M
-48%
-53%
Capital Expenditure Reduction: Annual CapEx ($ millions)
1Q09A
1,800
471
3,438
1,329
850
2008
2009E
2010E


29
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$291M of Working Capital Generated
Working Capital
Days Reduction Targets
-28%
1Q09 Working Capital
Change ($ millions)
$800M decrease
in working
capital in 2009
Working Capital Initiatives: Targets and 1Q09 Results



31



33
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Benefits
Cost Reduction
warranty, service and maintenance
Patented Thread Geometry
superior vibration resistance
Fast and Quiet Installation
2 sec installation time with
noise levels of <70dB
Shorter Assembly Time
due to patented technology
Ergonomic Installation Tool –
50 -
70% lighter than
standard tools
Health and Safety –
low noise, non-vibrating installation
tool reduces hand, wrist and  hearing injuries
First Results
14% Installation Cost Reduction at
Large US Truck Manufacturer
BobTail
®
Fastening System –
Revolutionary Technology
Alcoa BobTail
®
Fastening System: Benefits & First Results


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New QC-10
®
Mold Block –
Saving 30% off the Bottom Line
Benefits
Up to 30% Lower Tool Costs
QC-10
machines eight times faster than steel
Reduced Scrap Cost
due to less warpage
Durable Alternative to Steel
in 6+ inches
Up to 40% Faster Cycle Times
due to
better thermal properties,
Faster Time to Market
quicker mold
production, fewer design iterations
Better Bottom Line
up to 30%
savings
per unit produced vs. steel
Automotive
Rear Deck
Fan Shroud
Key End Market Segments
Automotive
Consumer Electronics
Agriculture
Appliances
Furniture
Alcoa QC-10 ®
Forged Mold Block: Sample Products & Benefits


35
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Supply / demand balance
Unsustainable levels
Rapid drawdown of
inventories when economy
rebounds
Alternative fuel efficient
buses
New construction
Transmission lines for grid
Remain Optimistic Near-Term and Long-Term
Continued execution of
announced curtailments
Expect additional
curtailments in the Spring
Near-Term
Consumer electronics
Aluminum bottle
Population Living in Cities
2006:  > 50%
2030:  > 60%
Global Population Growth
2006:  6.6 billion
2025:  7.9 billion
2050:  9.1 billion
Long-Term
Energy consumption up 54%
by 2025
Person Transport rates +40%
by 2030
Greenhouse gas regulation
China
Curtailment
Stimulus Programs
De-Stocking
New Applications
Environment
Urbanization
Demographics
Catalysts for Aluminum Industry Growth
Source: United Nations, World Health Organization, World Bank, UNEP (United Nations Environment Program), FAO (Food and Agriculture
Organization of the United Nations), Max Planck Institute


36
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Elizabeth Besen
Director, Investor Relations
Alcoa
390 Park Avenue
New York, NY 10022-4608
Telephone:  (212) 836-2674
Facsimile:  (212) 836-2813
www.alcoa.com
For Additional Information, Contact:


37
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38
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APPENDIX
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39
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China Aluminum Prices Supported by Market Factors
China Aluminum Production (mmtpy) *
* Source: IAI and CNIA. 
1
As of 3/27/09
$1,000
$1,500
$2,000
$2,500
$3,000
$3,500
1/1/07
7/1/07
1/1/08
7/1/08
1/1/09
LME
SHFE
Metal Price Gap:  SHFE vs
LME
China Aluminum Industry:  Production and Price
SHFE
premium
$364
1



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Refining Cost Overview
Fuel Oil
14%
Natural gas
15%
Caustic
10%
Bauxite
25%
Conversion
36%
Input Cost
Inventory flow
Pricing convention
Fuel oil
1 –
2 months
Prior month
Natural gas
1 –
2 months
Rolling 16 quarters
Caustic soda
3 -
6 months
Spot & semi-annual
Bauxite
2 -
3 months
6 -
9 month lag
Composition of Refining Production Costs


42
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Smelting Cost Overview
Power
26%
Materials
3%
Conversion
22%
Alumina
36%
Carbon
13%
Input Cost
Inventory flow
Pricing convention
Alumina
1 –
2 months
2 –
3 month lags
Power
1 –
2 months
40% LME linked –
3
month lag
Carbon
1 -
2 months
Spot & semi-annual
Materials
1 -
2 months
1 –
3 month lag
Conversion
1 month
Immediate
Several significant input costs lag average primary metal revenue by up to 3 months
Composition of Smelting Production Costs


43
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(in millions)
1Q08
2Q08
3Q08
4Q08
2008
1Q09
   Total segment ATOI
$     668
$     838
$     665
$       28
$  2,199
$    (143)      
   Unallocated amounts (net of tax):
      Impact of LIFO
(31)
(44)
(5)
73
(7)
29
      Interest income
9
12
10
4
35
1
      Interest expense
(64)
(57)
(63)
(81)
(265)
(74)
      Noncontrolling interests (1)
(67)
(70)
(84)
(221)
(10)
      Corporate expense
(82)
(91)
(77)
(78)
(328)
(71)
      Restructuring and other charges
(30)
(1)
(25)
(637)
(693)
(46)
      Discontinued operations
4
(7)
(38)
(262)
(303)
(17)
      Other
(104)
(34)
(115)
(238)
(491)
(166)
   Consolidated net income (loss) attributable to
Alcoa
$     303
$     546
$     268
$ (1,191)
$      (74)
$    (497)
Prior period information was reclassified to reflect the movement of the Electrical and Electronic Solutions business to discontinued
operations in the fourth quarter of 2008.
(1)
On January 1, 2009, Alcoa adopted Statement of Financial Accounting Standards No. 160, “Noncontrolling Interests in
Consolidated Financial Statements – an amendment of ARB No. 51,” the provisions of which, among others, requires that
minority interests be renamed noncontrolling interests for all periods presented.
Reconciliation of ATOI to Consolidated Net Income
(Loss) Attributable to Alcoa


44
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(in millions)
Quarter ended
March 31,
2008*
December 31,
2008
March 31,
2009
Net income (loss)
attributable to Alcoa
$     303  
$ (1,191) 
$    (497) 
Income (loss) from
discontinued
operations
         4
    (262)
      (17)
Income (loss) from
continuing
operations
attributable to Alcoa
299
(929)
(480)
Restructuring and
other charges
29
614
46
Other special items**
       28
       94
      (43)
Income (loss) from
continuing
operations
attributable to Alcoa
– as adjusted
$     356
$    (221)
$    (477)
*
Financial information for the quarter ended March 31, 2008 was reclassified to reflect the movement of the
Electrical and Electronic Solutions business to discontinued operations in the fourth quarter of 2008.
** Other special items include the following: a discrete income tax charge related to the sale of the
Packaging and Consumer businesses for the quarter ended March 31, 2008; obsolete inventory ($16),
environmental reserve ($26), accounts receivable reserve ($11), non-cash tax on repatriated earnings
($65), and refund of indemnification payment (-$24) for the quarter ended December 31, 2008; and gain
on Elkem/SAPA swap (-$133), loss on sale of Shining Prospect ($118), and discrete income tax benefit
related to a tax law change in Canada (-$28) for the quarter ended March 31, 2009.
Reconciliation of Adjusted Income