EX-99.2 3 dex992.htm SLIDES PRESENTED DURING ALCOA INC. FOURTH QUARTER 2006 EARNINGS CALL. Slides presented during Alcoa Inc. fourth quarter 2006 earnings call.
[Alcoa logo]
Exhibit 99.2
January 9, 2007
4
th
Quarter 2006 Analyst Conference


2
[Alcoa logo]
Forward Looking Statements
Today’s discussion may include “forward-looking statements”
within
the
meaning
of
the
Private
Securities
Litigation
Reform
Act
of
1995. 
Such statements relate to future events and expectations and
involve known and unknown risks and uncertainties.  Alcoa’s actual
results
or
actions
may
differ
materially
from
those
projected
in
the
forward-looking statements.  For a summary of the specific risk
factors that could cause results to differ materially from those
expressed in the forward-looking statements, please refer to
Alcoa’s Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2005 and
Forms 10-Q for the quarters ended March 31, 2006, June 30, 2006
and September 30, 2006 filed with the Securities and Exchange
Commission.


[Alcoa logo]
Vice President and Chief Financial Officer
Chuck McLane
*


4
[Alcoa logo]
4
th
Quarter 2006 Financial Overview
Income from continuing operations of $644m or
$0.74 per share -
$258m or $0.29 per share
including the impact of restructurings
Revenues of $7.84b
Cash from operations of $1.33b
Debt-to-cap at 30.6%
Trailing four quarters ROC of 13.2%


5
[Alcoa logo]
4
th
Quarter 2006 Restructuring Impact
$M
EPS
Net Income
$359
$0.41
Less: Income from Discontinued Operations
101
Income From Continuing Operations
258
0.29
Plus: Restructuring and other charges
386
Income From Continuing Operations,
excluding restructuring and other charges
$644
$0.74


6
[Alcoa logo]
4
th
Quarter 2006 Financial Overview
In Millions
3Q'06
4Q'06
Change
Sales
$7,631
$7,840
$209
Cost of Goods Sold
$6,015
$6,132
$117
   % of Sales
78.8%
78.2%
(0.6) pts.
SG&A
$326
$367
$41
   % of Sales
4.3%
4.7%
0.4 pts.
Restructuring and Other Charges
($3)
$554
$557
Interest Expense
$101
$93
($8)
Other Income, Net
($48)
($49)
($1)
Effective Tax Rate
24.7%
-0.3%
(25.0) pts.
Minority Interests
$109
$98
($11)
GAAP Net Income
$537
$359
($178)
(Loss) Income from Discontinued Operations
($3)
$101
$104
GAAP Income From Continuing Operations
$540
$258
($282)


7
[Alcoa logo]
Income from Continuing Operations
3
rd
Quarter vs. 4
th
Quarter Comparison


8
[Alcoa logo]
4Q vs 4Q
4Q vs 3Q
4Q’06
6%
(5%)
2,084
3
rd
Party Shipments (kmt)
2%
(3%)
3,790
Production (kmt)
27%
(3%)
711
3
rd
Party Revenue ($MM)
42%
(4%)
259
ATOI ($MM)
Pinjarra
production ramp-up offset by
Point Comfort decrease
Impact of Pinjarra power outage
Impact of stronger Australian Dollar
Alumina
4
th
Quarter Highlights
ATOI Performance
1
st
Quarter Outlook
Pinjarra
restored to 100% production in
February following power outage
Pt. Comfort at approximately 85% rate
Higher alumina price
4
th
Quarter Business Conditions
$100
$120
$140
$160
$180
$200
$220
$240
$260
$280
$300
1Q05
2Q05
3Q05
4Q05
1Q06
2Q06
3Q06
4Q06
$800
$900
$1,000
$1,100
$1,200
$1,300
$1,400
ATOI
Total Revenue


9
[Alcoa logo]
4
th
Quarter Highlights
98%
39%
480
ATOI ($MM)
27%
6%
2,766
3
rd
Party Price ($/MT)
33%
15%
1,698
3
rd
Party Revenue ($MM)
4Q vs 4Q
4Q vs 3Q
4Q’06
-
4%
556
3
rd
Party Shipments (kmt)
1%
1%
908
Production (kmt)
Primary Metals
ATOI Performance
1
st
Quarter Outlook
4
th
Quarter Business Conditions
Higher realized pricing and volumes
Increased carbon costs
Iceland start-up costs
Lower energy costs
Average Dec. cash LME = $2,813/MT
Higher carbon and energy costs
Higher Rockdale power costs
Iceland start-up and Intalco restart cost
$0
$50
$100
$150
$200
$250
$300
$350
$400
$450
$500
1Q05
2Q05
3Q05
4Q05
1Q06
2Q06
3Q06
4Q06
$1,500
$1,700
$1,900
$2,100
$2,300
$2,500
$2,700
$2,900
$3,100
$3,300
$3,500
ATOI
Total Revenue


10
[Alcoa logo]
Favorable aerospace mix
Recovery from 3
rd
quarter mill outages
Swansea shutdown costs
Tax benefit
4Q vs 4Q
4Q vs 3Q
4Q’06
29%
62
ATOI ($MM)
22%
1%
2,127
Revenue ($MM)
Flat Rolled Products
4
th
Quarter Highlights
ATOI Performance
1
st
Quarter Outlook
4
th
Quarter Business Conditions
Swansea shutdown costs continue
Aerospace demand remains strong
Productivity to offset cost inflation
$0
$20
$40
$60
$80
$100
1Q05
2Q05
3Q05
4Q05
1Q06
2Q06
3Q06
4Q06
$1,500
$1,600
$1,700
$1,800
$1,900
$2,000
$2,100
$2,200
ATOI
Third Party Revenue


11
[Alcoa logo]
(4)
(3)
(5)
Other
75
86
(8)
3Q06
Total
Investment Castings,
Forgings,
Fasteners
AFL, Auto Castings and
Structures
47
65
(13)
4Q05
73
61
16
4Q06
Aerospace market remained strong
Cleveland strike impact in forgings
business
Weakness in NA automotive demand
AFL tax benefit
Engineered Solutions
ATOI ($MM)
4
th
Quarter Business Conditions
1
st
Quarter Outlook
Decline in heavy truck due to change in
engine emissions regulations
North American auto production cuts
continue on specific platforms
Global aerospace markets remain
strong despite A380 delays
$0
$20
$40
$60
$80
$100
$120
1Q05
2Q05
3Q05
4Q05
1Q06
2Q06
3Q06
4Q06
$800
$900
$1,000
$1,100
$1,200
$1,300
$1,400
$1,500
ATOI
Third Party Revenue


12
[Alcoa logo]
3
(2)
(14)
Alcoa Custom Extruded
Solutions
and Other
4Q06
3Q06
4Q05
27
16
(2)
Total
24
18
12
Global Engineered
Products, Building &
Construction Systems
and Russia
Favorable mix in hard alloys
Lower volume in industrial market
Tax benefit
Extruded and End Products
ATOI ($MM)
4
th
Quarter Business Conditions
1
st
Quarter Outlook
Seasonal decline in commercial building
and construction
Expected to finalized soft alloy
extrusions joint venture
-$5
$0
$5
$10
$15
$20
1Q05
2Q05
3Q05
4Q05
1Q06
2Q06
3Q06
4Q06
$0
$200
$400
$600
$800
$1,000
$1,200
ATOI
Third Party Revenue


13
[Alcoa logo]
(1)
(2)
(1)
Other
24
(4)
30
3Q06
Total
Reynolds Food Packaging
and Flexible Packaging
Closure Systems and
Consumer Products
20
(8)
29
4Q05
26
(9)
36
4Q06
Packaging & Consumer
ATOI ($MM)
4
th
Quarter Business Conditions
1
st
Quarter Outlook
Seasonal decrease in Consumer
Productivity improvements across the
businesses.
Seasonal strength in Consumer
Seasonal decline in Closures
Higher metal costs
$0
$10
$20
$30
$40
$50
$60
1Q05
2Q05
3Q05
4Q05
1Q06
2Q06
3Q06
4Q06
$500
$600
$700
$800
$900
ATOI
Third Party Revenue


14
[Alcoa logo]
4
th
Quarter 2006 Cash Flow Review
$ In Millions
4Q'05
4Q'06
Net Income
$224
$359
DD&A
315
325
Change in Working Capital
386
402
Other Adjustments
133
300
Pension Contributions
(19)
(53)
Cash From Operating Activities
1,039
1,333
Dividends to Shareholders
(131)
(131)
Change in Debt
(248)
(676)
Other Financing Activities
(64)
174
Cash From Financing Activities
(443)
(633)
Capital Expenditures
(762)
(1,147)
Acquisitions
(5)
0
Other Investing Activities
413
378
Cash From Investing Activities
($354)
($769)


15
[Alcoa logo]
Strong Performance Trends
Bloomberg ROC*
Segment ATOI and Revenue


[Alcoa logo]
Chairman and Chief Executive Officer
Alain J.P. Belda
*


17
[Alcoa logo]
2006 Accomplishments
Environmental, Health and Safety
Innovation and Technology
Portfolio Management
Long-Term Growth
Financial Performance


18
[Alcoa logo]
Sustainability
Named to the Dow Jones Sustainability Index
Named one of the most sustainable companies in the
world at the World Economic Forum
Ranked 2
nd
in the Covalence Ethical Ranking
Ranked 2
nd
overall by CERES on Climate Change and
Governance


19
[Alcoa logo]
Zero Incident Locations
Safety


20
[Alcoa logo]
2006 Accomplishments
Environmental, Health and Safety
Innovation and Technology
Portfolio Management
Long-Term Growth
Financial Performance


21
[Alcoa logo]
Innovation and Technology
Bauxite residue neutralization
SMAC (Simultaneous Multi-Alloy Casting)
Reynobond®
with KEVLAR
Dura-Bright®
products


22
[Alcoa logo]
2006 Accomplishments
Environmental, Health and Safety
Innovation and Technology
Portfolio Management
Long-Term Growth
Financial Performance


23
[Alcoa logo]
Portfolio Management
Sale of Alcoa Home Exteriors
Creation of a soft alloy extrusions joint
venture
Review of portfolio continues


24
[Alcoa logo]
2006 Accomplishments
Environmental, Health and Safety
Innovation and Technology
Portfolio Management
Long-Term Growth
Financial Performance


25
[Alcoa logo]
Alcoa’s
Share
of
Nameplate
Capacity
Refining
Smelting
Bauxite
Alcoa’s Upstream Growth Projects
2002
2002
2003
2003
2004
2004
2005
2005
2006
2006
2007
2007
2008
2008
kMT
kMT
R
R
R
S
R
S
R
B
Jamalco
Suralco
Alumar
Pinjarra
Jamalco EWP
Iceland/Mosjoen
Juruti
Sao Luis 2


26
[Alcoa logo]
Alcoa’s Downstream Growth Projects
50% aerospace capacity increase across four
locations
Major modernization of the Kofem facility
Continued improvement in our Russia fabricating
facilities
Increased strategic presence in China


27
[Alcoa logo]
Alcoa’s Presence in Asia-Pacific Region


28
[Alcoa logo]
2006 Accomplishments
Environmental, Health and Safety
Innovation and Technology
Portfolio Management
Long-Term Growth
Financial Performance


29
[Alcoa logo]
2006 Financial Performance
Record income from continuing operations
of
$2.5b or $2.90 per share -
$2.2b or $2.47 per
share including the impact of restructurings
Record
revenues
of
$30.4b
Cash from operations
of $2.6b
Debt
to
cap
of
30.6%
Trailing
twelve
months
ROC
of
16.2%
excluding
impact of growth projects


30
[Alcoa logo]
Income from Continuing Operations
2006 vs. 2005 Bridge


31
[Alcoa logo]
Bloomberg ROC Trailing 12 Months
Including Growth Capex
Bloomberg ROC Trailing 12 Months
Excluding Growth Capex
Cash from Operations
Strong Performance Trends


32
[Alcoa logo]
2007 Outlook
Market Fundamentals
Market Conditions
Portfolio Improvements
Financial Targets


33
[Alcoa logo]
Source:  Alcoa analysis
Market Fundamentals
Alumina Surplus or (Deficit)
Aluminum Surplus or (Deficit)


34
[Alcoa logo]
2007 Anticipated Market Conditions
Aerospace
Another strong year
Automotive
Increased production in North
America and Europe
Commercial Transportation
Decrease in North
America due to 2006 pre-buy
Building & Construction
Slight slowing but still
healthy growth rates
Industrial Products
Approximate 10% decline
in industrial gas turbines


35
[Alcoa logo]
2007 Portfolio Improvements


36
[Alcoa logo]
2007 Financial Targets


37
[Alcoa logo]
Tony Thene
Director, Investor Relations
Alcoa
390 Park Avenue
New York, N.Y. 10022-4608
Telephone:  (212) 836-2674
Facsimile:  (212) 836-2813
www.alcoa.com
For Additional Information, Contact:


38
[Alcoa logo]
*
*
*
*
*
*
*
*******************************************


39
[Alcoa logo]
*
*
*
*
*
*
*
*******************************************
APPENDIX


40
[Alcoa logo]
$  359
10
101
(386)  
(82)
(98)
(61)
14
(66)
$  927
4Q06
$  537
(7)
(3)
2  
(64)
(109)
(66)
23
(19)
$  780
3Q06
$2,248
$  744
$  608
$1,233
$  224
$  289
$  460
$  260
Consolidated net income
104
51
50
161
(62)
20
261
(58)
Other (1)
87
(5)
(6)
(22)
13
4
(30)
(9)
Discontinued operations
(379)  
6  
(1)
(197)
(18)
(5)
(144)
(30)
Restructuring and other charges
(317)
(82)
(89)
(312)
(88)
(80)
(73)
(69)
Corporate expense
(436)
(124)
(105)
(259)
(80)
(59)
(60)
(60)
Minority interests
(250)
(63)
(60)
(220)
(51)
(62)
(56)
(51)
Interest expense
58
10
11
42
14
12
9
7
Interest income
(170)
(49)
(36)
(99)
(56)
(22)
(2)
(19)
Impact of LIFO (1)
Unallocated amounts (net of tax):
$ 3,551
$1,000
$  844
$2,139
$  552
$  483
$  555
$  549
Total ATOI
2006
2Q06
1Q06
2005
4Q05
3Q05
2Q05
1Q05
Reconciliation of ATOI to consolidated net
income:
(1)
Certain amounts have been reclassified to Other so that this line reflects only the impact of LIFO.
Prior periods’
financial information has been reclassified to reflect the movement of the Hawesville, KY automotive casting facility and
the home exteriors business to discontinued operations in 2006.
Reconciliation of ATOI to Net Income


41
[Alcoa logo]
Return on Capital (ROC) is presented based on Bloomberg Methodology which calculates ROC based on
trailing four quarters.
Reconciliation of Return on Capital
4Q'06
3Q'06
2Q'06
1Q'06
4Q'05
Bloomberg
4Q'06
Bloomberg
3Q'06
Bloomberg
2Q'06
Bloomberg
1Q'06
Bloomberg
In Millions
Method
Annlzd
Method
Annlzd
Method
Annlzd
Method
Annlzd
Method
Net Income
$2,248
$1,436
$2,113
$2,148
$1,865
$2,976
1,581
$2,432
$1,233
Minority Interest
$436
$392
$418
$436
$368
$496
304
$420
$259
Interest Expense (After-tax)
$291
$373
$272
$304
$268
$282
$274
$264
$261
Numerator (Sum Total)
$2,975
$2,201
$2,803
$2,888
$2,501
$3,754
$2,159
$3,116
$1,753
Average Balances
Short-term borrowings
$386
$454
$349
$395
$306
$361
$342
$331
$279
Short-term debt
$451
$847
$449
$452
$55
$60
$53
$59
$58
Commercial paper
$1,192
$1,833
$1,678
$2,046
$1,501
$1,785
$1,652
$1,292
$771
Long-term debt
$4,861
$4,446
$4,915
$4,801
$5,333
$5,189
$5,243
$5,250
$5,309
Preferred Stock
$55
$55
$55
$55
$55
$55
$55
$55
$55
Minority interests
$1,583
$1,665
$1,416
$1,502
$1,340
$1,432
$1,280
$1,378
$1,391
Common equity
$13,947
$14,613
$14,120
$14,508
$13,834
$14,120
$13,611
$13,596
$13,282
Denominator (Sum Total)
$22,475
$23,913
$22,982
$23,759
$22,424
$23,002
$22,237
$21,961
$21,144
Return on Capital
13.2%
9.2%
12.2%
12.2%
11.2%
16.3%
9.7%
14.2%
8.3%


42
[Alcoa logo]
Return on capital, excluding growth investments is a non-GAAP financial measure.  Management believes that this
measure is meaningful to investors because it provides greater insight with respect to the underlying operating
performance of the company’s productive assets.  The company has significant growth investments underway in its
upstream and downstream businesses, as previously noted, with expected completion dates over the next several
years.  As these investments generally require a period of time before they are productive, management believes that a
return on capital measure excluding these growth investments is more representative of current operating performance.
Reconciliation of Adjusted Return on Capital
4Q'06
3Q'06
2Q'06
1Q'06
4Q'05
Bloomberg
4Q'06
Bloomberg
3Q'06
Bloomberg
2Q'06
Bloomberg
1Q'06
Bloomberg
In Millions
Method
Annlzd
Method
Annlzd
Method
Annlzd
Method
Annlzd
Method
Numerator (Sum Total)
$2,975
$2,201
$2,803
$2,888
$2,501
$3,754
$2,159
$3,116
$1,753
Russia & Bohai
Net Loss
($74)
($44)
($85)
($52)
($78)
($88)
($86)
($110)
($71)
Adjusted Net Income
$3,049
$2,245
$2,888
$2,940
$2,579
$3,842
$2,245
$3,226
$1,824
Average Balances
Denominator (Sum Total)
$22,475
$23,913
$22,982
$23,759
$22,424
$23,002
$22,237
$21,961
$21,144
Capital Projects in Progress,
Russia & Bohai
Capital Base
$3,655
$4,203
$2,540
$3,801
$2,330
$3,220
$2,139
$2,892
$1,913
Adjusted Capital Base
$18,820
$19,710
$20,442
$19,958
$20,094
$19,782
$20,098
$19,069
$19,231
Return on Capital Excluding
Growth Investments
16.2%
11.4%
14.1%
14.7%
12.8%
19.4%
11.2%
16.9%
9.5%


43
[Alcoa logo]
Reconciliation of Income and EPS excluding
Restructuring Charges
Income
from
continuing
operations
excluding
restructuring
and
other
charges
is
a
non-GAAP
financial
measure.
The
following
matters
should
be
considered
when
evaluating
this
non-GAAP
financial
measure:
Alcoa
reviews
the
operating
results
of
its
businesses
excluding
the
impacts
of
restructurings
and
discontinued
operations.
Excluding
the
impacts
of
these
items
can
provide
an
additional
basis
of
comparison.
Management
believes
that
these
items
are
unusual
in
nature,
and
would
not
be
indicative
of
ongoing
operating
results.
As
a
result,
management
believes
these
items
should
be
considered
in
order
to
compare
past,
current,
and
future
periods.
The
economic
impacts
of
the
restructuring
charges
are
described
in
a
footnote
to
Alcoa’s
financial
statements.
Generally
speaking,
charges
associated
with
restructurings
include
cash
and
non-cash
charges
and
are
the
result
of
employee
layoff,
plant
consolidation
of
assets,
or
plant
closure
costs.
These
actions
are
taken
in
order
to
achieve
a
lower
cost
base
for
future
operating
results.
Restructuring
charges
and
discontinued
operations
are
typically
material
and
are
considered
to
be
outside
the
normal
operations
of
a
business.
Corporate
management
is
responsible
for
making
decisions
about
restructurings
and
discontinued
operations.
There
can
be
no
assurance
that
additional
restructurings
and
discontinued
operations
will
not
occur
in
future
periods.
To
compensate
for
this
limitation,
management
believes
that
it
is
appropriate
to
consider
both
income
from
continuing
operations
determined
under
GAAP
as
well
as
income
from
continuing
operations
excluding
restructuring
and
other
charges.
1.66
2.90
0.62
0.26
0.74
$ 1,454
$ 2,540
$   538
$   231
$   644
Income from
continuing operations  
excluding
restructuring and
other charges
197
379
(2)
18
386
Restructuring and
other charges
1.43
2.47
0.62
0.24
0.29
1,257
2,161
540
213
258
Income from
continuing operations  
including
restructuring and
other charges
(22)
87
(3)
13
101
Income (loss) from
discontinued
operations
2
-
-
2
-
Cumulative effect of
accounting change
$  1.40
$  2.57
$  0.61
$  0.26
$  0.41
$ 1,233     
$ 2,248     
$   537     
$   224     
$   359     
Net income
2005
2006
3Q06
4Q05
4Q06
2005
2006
3Q06
4Q05
4Q06
Year ended
Quarter ended
Year ended
Quarter ended
Diluted EPS
Net Income


44
[Alcoa logo]
The effective tax rate, excluding restructuring charges is a non-GAAP financial measure.  Management believes that this measure is
meaningful to investors because it provides greater insight to the company’s tax position.  There can be no assurance that additional
restructuring charges will not occur in the future.  As a result, management believes that it is appropriate to consider the effective tax rate under
GAAP as well as after adjustment for restructuring charges.
18.4%
30.3%
(0.3)%
Effective Tax Rate
167
168
(1)
(Benefit) provision for taxes on income
$  909
$  554
$  355
Income from continuing operations
before taxes on income
($ millions)
As Adjusted
Restructuring and
other charges
As Reported
Quarter ended
December 31,
2006
Reconciliation of Effective Tax Rate excluding
Restructuring Charges


45
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Days of Working Capital Definition
Days Working Capital
(in Millions)
4Q '05
3Q '06
4Q '06
Receivables from customers, less allowances
2,616
3,152
3,127
Add: Inventories
3,191
3,848
3,805
Less: Account Payable, trade
2,420
2,518
2,680
Working Capital
3,387
4,482
4,252
Sales
6,536
7,631
7,840
Days of Working Capital*
47.7
54.0
49.9
*Days Working Capital = Working Capital divided by (Sales/number of days in the quarter)
Quarter ended