The allowance for credit losses represents an estimate of the probable credit loss inherent in finance receivables as of the balance sheet date. The adequacy of the allowance for credit losses is assessed quarterly and the assumptions and models used in establishing the allowance are evaluated regularly. Because credit losses may vary substantially over time, estimating credit losses requires a number of assumptions about matters that are uncertain. The majority of credit losses are attributable to Ford Credit’s consumer receivables.

Additions to the allowance for credit losses are made by recording charges to Ford Credit interest, operating, and other expenses on our consolidated income statement. The uncollectible portion of finance receivables are charged to the allowance for credit losses at the earlier of when an account is deemed to be uncollectible or when an account is 120 days delinquent, taking into consideration the financial condition of the customer or borrower, the value of the collateral, recourse to guarantors, and other factors.

In the event Ford Credit repossesses the collateral, the receivable is charged off and the collateral is recorded at its estimated fair value less costs to sell and reported in Other assets on our consolidated balance sheet. Charge-offs on finance receivables include uncollected amounts related to principal, interest, late fees, and other allowable charges. Recoveries on finance receivables previously charged off as uncollectible are credited to the allowance for credit losses.

Ford Credit estimates the allowance for credit losses on consumer receivables using a combination of measurement models and management judgment. The models consider factors such as historical trends in credit losses and recoveries (including key metrics such as delinquencies, repossessions, and bankruptcies), the composition of the present portfolio (including vehicle brand, term, risk evaluation, and new/used vehicles), trends in historical used vehicle values, and economic conditions. Estimates from these models rely on historical information and may not fully reflect losses inherent in the present portfolio. Therefore, Ford Credit may adjust the estimate to reflect management judgment regarding observable changes in recent economic trends and conditions, portfolio composition, and other relevant factors.

Collective Allowance for Credit Losses. The collective allowance is evaluated primarily using a collective loss-to-receivables (“LTR”) model that, based on historical experience, indicates credit losses have been incurred in the portfolio even though the particular accounts that are uncollectible cannot be specifically identified. The LTR model is based on the most recent years of history. An LTR for each product is calculated by dividing credit losses (i.e., charge-offs net of recoveries) by average net finance receivables, excluding unearned interest supplements and allowance for credit losses. The average LTR that is calculated for each product is multiplied by the end-of-period balances for that given product.

The largest markets also use a loss projection model to estimate losses inherent in the portfolio. The loss projection model applies recent monthly performance metrics, stratified by contract type (retail installment sale contract or finance lease), contract term (e.g., 60 months), and risk rating to the active portfolio to estimate the losses that have been incurred.

The LEP is an assumption within the models and represents the average amount of time between when a loss event first occurs to when it is charged off. This time period starts when the consumer begins to experience financial difficulty. It is evidenced, typically through delinquency, before eventually resulting in a charge-off. The LEP is a multiplier in the calculation of the collective consumer allowance for credit losses.

For accounts greater than 120 days past due, the uncollectible portion is charged off, such that the remaining recorded investment is equal to the estimated fair value of the collateral less costs to sell.

Specific Allowance for Impaired Receivables. Consumer receivables involved in TDRs are specifically assessed for impairment. A specific allowance is estimated based on the present value of the expected future cash flows of the receivable discounted at the contract’s original effective interest rate or the fair value of any collateral adjusted for estimated costs to sell.

After establishing the collective and specific allowance for credit losses, if management believes the allowance does not reflect all losses inherent in the portfolio due to changes in recent economic trends and conditions, or other relevant factors, an adjustment is made based on management judgment.

Ford Credit estimates the allowance for credit losses for non-consumer receivables based on historical LTR ratios, expected future cash flows, and the fair value of collateral.

Collective Allowance for Credit Losses. Ford Credit estimates an allowance for non-consumer receivables that are not specifically identified as impaired using an LTR model for each financing product based on historical experience. This LTR is an average of the most recent historical experience and is calculated consistent with the consumer receivables LTR approach. All accounts that are specifically identified as impaired are excluded from the calculation of the non-specific or collective allowance.

Specific Allowance for Impaired Receivables. Dealer financing is evaluated by segmenting individual loans by the risk characteristics of the loan (such as the amount of the loan, the nature of the collateral, and the financial status of the debtor). The loans are analyzed to determine whether individual loans are impaired, and a specific allowance is estimated based on the present value of the expected future cash flows of the receivable discounted at the loan’s original effective interest rate or the fair value of the collateral adjusted for estimated costs to sell.

After establishing the collective and the specific allowance for credit losses, if management believes the allowance does not reflect all losses inherent in the portfolio due to changes in recent economic trends and conditions, or other relevant factors, an adjustment is made based on management judgment.



	2018
	Consumer			Non-Consumer			Total
Allowance for credit losses
Beginning balance	$	582		$	15		$	597
Charge-offs (a)	(528		)	(67		)	(595		)
Recoveries	163			7			170
Provision for credit losses	359			68			427
Other	(10		)	—			(10		)
Ending balance	$	566		$	23		$	589

Analysis of ending balance of allowance for credit losses
Collective impairment allowance	$	546		$	14		$	560
Specific impairment allowance	20			9			29
Ending balance	566			23			589

Analysis of ending balance of finance receivables
Collectively evaluated for impairment	75,744			34,243			109,987
Specifically evaluated for impairment	370			129			499
Recorded investment	76,114			34,372			110,486

Ending balance, net of allowance for credit losses	$	75,548		$	34,349		$	109,897



	2019
	Consumer			Non-Consumer			Total
Allowance for credit losses
Beginning balance	$	566		$	23		$	589
Charge-offs	(527		)	(22		)	(549		)
Recoveries	168			10			178
Provision for credit losses	291			5			296
Other	(2		)	1			(1		)
Ending balance	$	496		$	17		$	513

Analysis of ending balance of allowance for credit losses
Collective impairment allowance	$	478		$	15		$	493
Specific impairment allowance	18			2			20
Ending balance	496			17			513

Analysis of ending balance of finance receivables
Collectively evaluated for impairment	73,560			33,796			107,356
Specifically evaluated for impairment	322			189			511
Recorded investment	73,882			33,985			107,867

Ending balance, net of allowance for credit losses	$	73,386		$	33,968		$	107,354