COMMITMENTS AND CONTINGENCIES

Commitments and contingencies primarily consist of guarantees and indemnifications, litigation and claims, and warranty.

Guarantees and Indemnifications

Guarantees and indemnifications are recorded at fair value at their inception. We regularly review our performance risk under these arrangements, and in the event it becomes probable we will be required to perform under guarantee or indemnity, the amount of probable payment is recorded.

We guarantee debt and lease obligations of certain joint ventures, as well as certain financial obligations of outside third parties, including suppliers, to support our business and economic growth. Expiration dates vary through 2033, and guarantees will terminate on payment and/or cancellation of the underlying obligation. A payment by us would be triggered by failure of the joint venture or other third party to fulfill its obligation covered by the guarantee. In some circumstances, we are entitled to recover from a third party amounts paid by us under the guarantee. However, our ability to enforce these rights is sometimes stayed until the guaranteed party is paid in full, and may be limited in the event of insolvency of the third party or other circumstances.

In the ordinary course of business, we execute contracts involving indemnifications standard in the industry and indemnifications specific to a transaction, such as the sale of a business. These indemnifications might include and are not limited to claims relating to any of the following: environmental, tax, and shareholder matters; intellectual property rights; power generation contracts; governmental regulations and employment-related matters; dealer, supplier, and other commercial contractual relationships; and financial matters, such as securitizations. Performance under these indemnities generally would be triggered by a breach of terms of the contract or by a third-party claim. While some of these indemnifications are limited in nature, many of them do not limit potential payment. Therefore, we are unable to estimate a maximum amount of future payments that could result from claims made under these unlimited indemnities.

The maximum potential payments and the carrying value of recorded liabilities related to guarantees and limited indemnities were as follows (in millions):



	September 30, 2015		December 31, 2014
Maximum potential payments	$	392	$	592
Carrying value of recorded liabilities related to guarantees and limited indemnities	16		17

Litigation and Claims

Various legal actions, proceedings, and claims (generally, “matters”) are pending or may be instituted or asserted against us. These include but are not limited to matters arising out of alleged defects in our products; product warranties; governmental regulations relating to safety, emissions, and fuel economy or other matters; government incentives; tax matters; alleged illegal acts resulting in fines or penalties; financial services; employment-related matters; dealer, supplier, and other contractual relationships; intellectual property rights; environmental matters; shareholder or investor matters; and financial reporting matters. Certain of the pending legal actions are, or purport to be, class actions. Some of the matters involve or may involve claims for compensatory, punitive, or antitrust or other treble damages in very large amounts, or demands for field service actions, environmental remediation programs, sanctions, loss of government incentives, assessments, or other relief, which, if granted, would require very large expenditures.

The extent of our financial exposure to these matters is difficult to estimate. Many matters do not specify a dollar amount for damages, and many others specify only a jurisdictional minimum. To the extent an amount is asserted, our historical experience suggests that in most instances the amount asserted is not a reliable indicator of the ultimate outcome.

We accrue for matters when losses are deemed probable and reasonably estimable. In evaluating matters for accrual and disclosure purposes, we take into consideration factors such as our historical experience with matters of a similar nature, the specific facts and circumstances asserted, the likelihood that we will prevail, and the severity of any potential loss. We reevaluate and update our accruals as matters progress over time.

NOTE 20. COMMITMENTS AND CONTINGENCIES (Continued)

For the majority of matters, which generally arise out of alleged defects in our products, we establish an accrual based on our extensive historical experience with similar matters. We do not believe there is a reasonably possible outcome materially in excess of our accrual for these matters.

For the remaining matters, where our historical experience with similar matters is of more limited value (i.e., “non‑pattern matters”), we evaluate the matters primarily based on the individual facts and circumstances. For non‑pattern matters, we evaluate whether there is a reasonable possibility of a material loss in excess of any accrual that can be estimated. Our estimate of reasonably possible loss in excess of our accruals for all material matters currently reflects indirect tax and customs matters, for which we estimate the aggregate risk to be a range of up to about $2.3 billion.

As noted, the litigation process is subject to many uncertainties, and the outcome of individual matters is not predictable with assurance. Our assessments are based on our knowledge and experience, but the ultimate outcome of any matter could require payment substantially in excess of the amount that we have accrued and/or disclosed.

Warranty and Field Service Actions

We accrue obligations for warranty costs and field service actions (i.e., safety recalls, emission recalls, and other product campaigns) at the time of sale. We establish estimates for warranty and field service action obligations using a patterned estimation model using historical information regarding the nature, frequency, and average cost of claims for each vehicle line by model year. We reevaluate the adequacy of our accruals on a regular basis and any revisions to our estimated obligation for warranties and field service actions are reported as Changes in accrual related to pre-existing warranties in the table below.

Our estimates of warranty and field service action obligations are accounted for primarily in Other liabilities and deferred revenue for the periods ended September 30 were as follows (in millions):



	First Nine Months
	2015			2014
Beginning balance	$	4,785		$	3,927
Payments made during the period	(2,036		)	(2,186		)
Changes in accrual related to warranties issued during the period	1,523			1,506
Changes in accrual related to pre-existing warranties	495			1,522
Foreign currency translation and other	(192		)	(67		)
Ending balance	$	4,575		$	4,702

Excluded from the table above are costs accrued for customer satisfaction actions.