EX-99.2 3 d671438dex992.htm EX-99.2 EX-99.2
Fiscal 2014 First Quarter Update
February 6, 2014
Exhibit 99.2


Regarding Forward-Looking Statements
1
Certain
statements
contained
in
this
presentation
are
forward-looking
statements
within
the
meaning
of
the
Private
Securities
Litigation
Reform
Act
of
1995.
Words
such as
“anticipates,”
“estimates,”
“expects,”
“projects,”
“may,”
"will," “intends,”
“expects,”
"believes," or “should”
and similar expressions may identify forward-looking
information and such forward-looking statements are made based upon management’s current expectations and beliefs as of this date concerning future developments and
their potential effect upon New Jersey Resources (NJR or the Company). There can be no assurance that future developments will be in accordance with management’s
expectations or that the effect of future developments on NJR will be those anticipated by management. NJR cautions persons reading or hearing this presentation that the
assumptions that form the basis for forward-looking statements regarding NJR’s dividend growth goal, NJR's net financial earnings (NFE) for fiscal 2014, forecasted
contribution of business segments to fiscal 2014, long-term financial goals, growth initiatives and NFE forecasts of NJR, expected contribution by new customers of New
Jersey Natural Gas Company (NJNG) to utility gross margin, expected number of new customers of NJNG, new sources of utility gross margin at NJNG for 2014 through 2017,
Solar Renewable Energy Certificate (SREC) prices, NJR’s effective tax rate, estimated capital expenditures in fiscal 2014 and beyond by NJNG and NJRCEV, planned natural
gas
vehicle
(NGV)
stations,
the
diversification
of
NJRCEV’s
strategy,
Two
Dot
and
Carroll
Area
Wind
farms,
and
NJRES’
growth
opportunities
include many factors that are
beyond
the
Company’s
ability
to
control
or
estimate
precisely,
such
as
estimates
of
future
market
conditions
and
the
behavior
of
other
market
participants.
The
factors
that
could
cause
actual
results
to
differ
materially
from
NJR’s
expectations
include,
but
are
not
limited
to,
weather
and
economic
conditions;
demographic
changes
in
the
NJNG
service
territory
and
their
effect
on
NJNG's
customer growth; volatility of natural gas and other commodity prices and their impact on NJNG customer
usage, NJNG's Basic Gas Supply Service incentive programs, NJRES' operations and on the Company's risk management efforts; changes in rating agency requirements
and/or credit ratings and their effect on availability and cost of capital to the Company; the impact of volatility in the credit markets; the ability to comply with debt
covenants;
the
impact
to
the
asset
values
and
resulting
higher
costs
and
funding
obligations
of
NJR's
pension
and
postemployment
benefit
plans
as
a
result
of
downturns in
the financial markets, a lower discount rate, and impacts associated with the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act; accounting effects and other risks associated with
hedging activities and use of derivatives contracts; commercial and wholesale credit risks, including the availability of creditworthy customers and counterparties and
liquidity in the wholesale energy trading market; the ability to
obtain governmental approvals and/or financing for the construction, development and operation of certain
non-regulated energy investments; risks associated with the management of the Company's joint ventures and partnerships; risks associated with our investments in
renewable energy projects and our investment in an on-shore wind developer, including the availability of regulatory and tax incentives, logistical risks and potential
delays
related
to
construction,
permitting,
regulatory
approvals
and
electric grid interconnection, the availability of viable projects and NJR's eligibility for federal
investment tax credits (ITC), and production tax credits (PTC), the future market for SRECs and operational risks related to projects in service; satisfaction of conditions
precedent to acquisition of Carroll Area wind farm; timing of qualifying for ITCs due to delays or failures to complete planned solar energy projects and the resulting effect
on our effective tax rate and earnings; regulatory approval of NJNG’s planned infrastructure programs; the level and rate at which NJNG's costs and expenses (including
those related to restoration efforts resulting from Superstorm Sandy) are incurred and the extent to which they are allowed to be recovered from customers through the
regulatory process; access to adequate supplies of natural gas and dependence on third-party storage and transportation facilities for natural gas supply; operating risks
incidental
to
handling,
storing,
transporting
and
providing
customers
with
natural
gas;
risks
related
to
our
employee
workforce,
including a work stoppage; the regulatory
and pricing policies of federal and state regulatory agencies; the possible expiration of the NJNG Conservation Incentive Program (CIP); the costs of compliance with
present and future environmental laws, including potential climate change-related legislation; risks related to changes in accounting standards; the disallowance of
recovery of environmental-related expenditures and other regulatory changes; environmental-related and other litigation and other uncertainties; risks related to cyber-
attack of failure of information technology systems; and the impact of natural disasters, terrorist activities, and other extreme events on our operations and customers,
including
any
impacts
to
utility
gross
margin,
and
restoration
costs
resulting
from
Superstorm
Sandy.
The
aforementioned
factors
are
detailed
in
the
“Risk
Factors”
sections
of our Annual Report on Form 10-K
filed on November 26, 2013, as filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) which is available on the SEC’s website at
sec.gov.
Information included in this presentation is representative as of today only and while NJR periodically reassesses material trends and uncertainties affecting NJR's
results
of
operations
and
financial
condition
in
connection
with
its
preparation of management's discussion and analysis of results of operations and financial condition
contained in its Quarterly and Annual Reports filed with the SEC, NJR does not, by including this statement, assume any obligation to review or revise any particular forward-
looking statement referenced herein in light of future events.
1


Disclaimer Regarding Non-GAAP Financial Measures
This presentation includes the non-GAAP measures NFE (losses), financial margin and utility gross margin. A reconciliation of these
non-GAAP financial measures to the most directly comparable financial measures calculated and reported in accordance with GAAP
can
be
found
below.
As
an
indicator
of
the
company’s
operating
performance,
these
measures
should
not
be
considered
an
alternative
to, or more meaningful than, operating income as determined in accordance with GAAP. This information has been provided pursuant
to the requirements of SEC Regulation G.
NFE (losses) and financial margin exclude unrealized gains or losses on derivative instruments related to the company’s unregulated
subsidiaries
and
certain
realized
gains
and
losses
on
derivative
instruments
related
to
natural
gas
that
has
been
placed
into
storage
at
NJRES. Volatility associated with the change in value of these financial and physical commodity contracts is reported in the income
statement in the current period. In order to manage its business, NJR views its results without the impacts of the unrealized gains and
losses,
and
certain
realized
gains
and
losses,
caused
by
changes
in
value
of
these
financial
instruments
and
physical
commodity
contracts prior to the completion of the planned transaction because it shows changes in value currently instead of when the planned
transaction
ultimately
is
settled.
An
annual
estimated
effective
tax
rate is calculated for
NFE
purposes and any necessary quarterly tax
adjustment is applied to
NJRCEV, as such adjustment is related to tax credits generated by NJRCEV.
NJNG’s utility gross margin represents the results of revenues less natural gas costs, sales and other taxes and regulatory rider
expenses, which are key components of the company’s operations that move in relation to each other. Natural gas costs, sales and other
taxes and regulatory rider expenses are passed through to customers and, therefore, have no effect on gross margin.
Management uses these non-GAAP financial measures as supplemental measures to other GAAP results to provide a more
complete understanding of the company’s performance. Management believes these non-GAAP measures are more reflective
of the company’s business model, provide transparency to investors and enable period-to-period comparability of financial
performance. A reconciliation of all non-GAAP financial measures to the most directly comparable financial measures
calculated and reported in accordance with GAAP, can be found below. For a full discussion of NJR’s non-GAAP financial
measures, please see NJR’s most recent Form 10-K, Item 7 and most recent Form 10-Q, Part I, Item 2.
2
2


First Quarter NFE
3
($MM)
Company
Q1 2014
Q1 2013
Change
New Jersey Natural Gas
$27.6
$25.5
$2.1
NJR Energy Services
7.4
3.0
4.4
NJR Clean Energy
3.6
5.3
(1.7)
NJR Midstream
1.4
1.8
           (0.4)
NJR Home Services/Other
(.1)
(.1)
            -
Total
$39.9
$35.5
$4.4
Per basic share
$.95
$.85
$.10


First Quarter Performance Drivers
New Jersey Natural Gas
NFE of $27.6 million compared with $25.5 million in Q1 last year
Strong utility gross margin growth at NJNG
NJR Energy Services
NFE of $7.4 million vs. $3 million in Q1 last year
Higher financial margin from colder weather
Pipeline and storage portfolio growth
Sales to major customers
4
($ thousands)
AIP
$2,126
Sandy/Other
1,370
Customer Growth
723
SAVEGREEN
446
BGSS Incentives
341
Total Utility Gross Margin Growth
$5,006


First Quarter Performance Drivers
NJR Clean Energy Ventures
NFE of $3.6 million vs. $5.3 million in Q1 last year
Timing of Solar Renewable Energy Certificates (SREC) sales
NJR Midstream
NFE of $1.4 million vs. $1.8 million in Q1 last year
Lower transportation values at Iroquois and maintenance expense at
Steckman Ridge
NJR Home Services
Loss of $574,000 vs. $247,000 loss in Q1 last year
First quarter fiscal 2013 positively impacted by Sandy
Lower installation sales
5


Affirm
Fiscal
2014
NFE
Per
Share
Guidance
-
$2.75
to
$2.95
6
Regulated businesses expected to contribute                    
65-80 percent of total NFE
New Jersey
Natural Gas
60
-70%
NJR Midstream
5-10%
NJR Clean Energy
Ventures
10-20%
NJR Home
Services
2-5%
NJR Energy
Services
5-15%


Goal is to grow dividend 5 percent annually
Growing and Sustainable Dividend
* Current annual rate
** Based on NJR net financial earnings
*** Peer group average based on 2013 earnings estimates and indicated dividend from Bloomberg. Peer group:   ATO, GAS, LG,
NWN, PNY, SJI,  SWX, VVC and WGL
7
$0.00
$0.25
$0.50
$0.75
$1.00
$1.25
$1.50
$1.75
$2.00
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014*
$1.01
$1.12
$1.24
$1.36
$1.44
$1.54
$1.62
$1.68
Dividend Growth
0%
16%
33%
49%
65%
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
Peer Group***
48%
50%
52%
55%
56%
57%
59%
63%
Payout Ratio**


2,129 new customers in the
first
quarter
of
fiscal
2014,
up
8.7
percent over Q1 last year
980 new construction
customers;
up
16 percent over
Q1
last year
1,149 conversions from other
fuels;
up
3
percent
over
Q1
last
year
137 existing customer heat
conversions;
more
than
double
Q1 last year
8
Strong Customer Growth Continues
Over next two fiscal years, NJNG expects to add a total of     
14,000-16,000 new customers


9
Constructive regulatory environment and support of public policy
objectives create growth opportunities for NJNG
In place through June 2015
Investment of up to $85 million
New programs added
First Quarter Results:
More than $215 million in economic activity for New Jersey since
inception in 2009
The SAVEGREEN Project
®
Over 1,300 home energy audits
634 on-bill repayments, totaling over $6 million
Over 2,050 grants paid, totaling over $3.8 million


Diversified and Growing Utility Gross Margin
Incremental utility gross margin expected to more than double  
by fiscal 2017
10


Capital of Over $1 Billion Drives Long-Term Growth
NJNG Expects Base Rate Case Resolution by Fiscal 2017
11
NJNG Capital Investment Estimates
($mm)
2009-
2012
Actual
2013A
2014E
2015E
2016E
2017E
Total
Customer Growth
$79.4
$24.5
$24.7
$25.6
$25.5
$25.5
$205.2
Maintenance/Other
177.4
42.5
63.3
55.9
48.1
40.6
427.8
AIP/SAFE
136.7
45.3
31.6
33.7
39.1
-
286.4
Superstorm Sandy
-
26.1
5.3
5.2
-
-
36.6
NGV Advantage
-
1.0
9.0
-
-
-
10.0
NJ RISE
-
-
4.6
13.0
12.0
12.0
41.6
Liquefaction/LNG
-
-
16.0
16.3
3.4
-
35.7
Southern Reliability
-
-
2.3
12.3
80.6
34.8
130.0
SAVEGREEN
36.5
24.0
42.5
42.5
-
-
145.5
Total
$430.0
$163.4
$199.3
$204.5
$208.7
$112.9
$1,318.8


Distributed Power Portfolio Strategy
12
Long-term goal to maintain NJRCEV at 10 to 20 percent of NFE
Solar
Supports New Jersey’s Energy Master Plan
Improving SREC Fundamentals
Eliminate reliance on solar ITC by January 2017
Wind
29 states and the District of Columbia have Renewable Portfolio
Standard (RPS)
Production-based tax credits (PTC)
Long-term Power Purchase Agreements (PPAs) and PTCs provide
annuity-like returns
Combined Heat and Power
Longer-term opportunities


Improving SREC Fundamentals
NJ increased solar RPS effective June 2013
Solar construction activity has moderated
SREC prices have responded
SREC production forecasted to grow from approximately 65,000 in
fiscal 2013 to 174,000 in fiscal 2017
13
Karbone Bid Prices
Capacity Additions by Month (MW)
SREC Prices by Month ($/SREC)
85.0
7.9


Two Dot Wind Farm
Announced on October 23, 2013
9.7 MW utility scale wind farm project                         
located in Montana, east of Helena
Approximately $22 million investment;                   
PTC eligible
25-year PPA in place to sell power
to NorthWestern Energy to support their
RPS requirement
Strong partners –
GE (Turbines),
Mortenson Construction (EPC
Contractor)
Current Status:
Construction work underway
Commercial operations on track for
summer 2014
14
NJR expects Two Dot to contribute to earnings in
fiscal fourth quarter 2014


Carroll Area Wind Farm
Second wind project for CEV
20 MW wind farm project located
65 miles NW of Des Moines in
Carroll County, Iowa
Approximately $42 million
investment; PTC eligible
25-year PPA with MidAmerican
Energy
Commercial operation expected in
the spring of 2015
15
NJR expects nearly 30 MW of wind energy to be in place by 2015


NJRES: Strong Performance in a Changing Market
NFE of $7.4 million vs. $3 million in Q1 last year
Higher financial margin from colder weather
Growth opportunities from physical natural gas sales and producer
services
Providing energy solutions for diverse customers in the Marcellus Shale
and other natural gas regions
Customers include Producers, Utilities, Power Generators, Pipelines and
Industrials
Holds
1.1
Bcf/day
of
firm
transportation
and
more
than
33
Bcf
of
storage
throughout the U.S. and Canada
16


4 to 7 Percent Average Long-Term Annual NFE
Growth Strategies
Regulated Businesses
Significant increase in NJNG
regulated infrastructure
investments
Diversified sources of NJNG
utility gross margin
November 2015 base
rate filing
Targeted growth from             
NJR Midstream
Non-Regulated Businesses
Diversify distributed power
portfolio
Expand onshore wind
investments
Steady contributions from        
NJR Energy Services
Expanded products and     
markets at NJR Home Services
17


NJR Affirms Long-Term Financial Goals
Achieve average long-term NFE growth of 4 to 7 percent
Significant capital investment in regulated business to support customer
growth and maintain safe, reliable and resilient service
New customers and regulatory initiatives generate significant NJNG utility
gross margin growth
Provide annual dividend growth of at least 5 percent
Targeted payout ratio of 60 to 65 percent
Expect at least 65 to 80 percent of earnings from Regulated Businesses
Supported by constructive and collaborative regulatory relationships
18


Fiscal 2014 First Quarter Update
February 6, 2014