EX-99.4 5 dex994.htm FOURTH QUARTER 2009 CREDIT TRENDS Fourth Quarter 2009 Credit Trends
Fifth Third Bank | All Rights Reserved
4Q09 Credit Trends
January 21, 2010
Please refer to earnings release dated January 21, 2010
for full results including those reported on a U.S. GAAP basis
Exhibit 99.4


2
Fifth Third Bank | All Rights Reserved
Updated credit loss expectations vs. SCAP scenarios
$4.1B
$5.0B
$2.8B
Moody’s Longer
Recession / Weaker
Recovery Case**
Assumptions
(Dec. 2009)
Moody’s Base
Case** Assumptions
(Dec. 2009)
Realized credit losses have been significantly below SCAP submissions, which is expected to continue
SCAP Baseline Scenario
(Submitted; Mar 2009)
SCAP Adverse Scenario
(Supervisory; Mar 2009)
* Red SCAP line represents more adverse scenario as adjusted by supervisors for additional assumed two-year losses. Supervisory estimates of total two-year losses
under more adverse scenario were not allocated by period. Estimate allocates total two-year supervisory losses using the allocation under Fifth Third’s submission.
** Source for assumptions: Moody’s  Economy.com. Assumptions as of 2009 year end.
Actual
$2.6B
Actual
$2.7B
Fifth Third
capitalized for this
level of losses under
SCAP (plus surplus
raised vs. buffer)
Fifth Third’s realized credit losses
have been significantly below its
SCAP submitted baseline and
more adverse scenarios
In SCAP submissions, we
incorporated significant
conservatism, given then-
prevailing negative economic
and industry trends and
extreme uncertainty in
potential loss outcomes at
the time
Economic and credit market
conditions have been much
better than potential
downside expectations in
Spring 2009, benefitting
results vs. SCAP scenarios
Base and stress scenarios reflect
Moody’s Base Case and Moody’s
Longer Recession and Weaker
Recovery Case (as of December
2009)**
Our current expectation is for
2010 losses to be lower than 2009
$2.9B
$1,000
$1,500
$2,000
$2,500
$3,000
$3,500
$4,000
$4,500
$5,000
$5,500
2008
2009
2010


3
Fifth Third Bank | All Rights Reserved
Credit by portfolio*
C&I
26%
Other
consumer
1%
Residential
mortgage
11%
Auto
4%
Commercial
construction
19%
Commercial
mortgage
20%
Coml Lease
1%
Home equity
12%
Card
6%
Net charge-offs by loan type
Net charge-offs by geography
* NPAs exclude loans held-for-sale.
MI
21%
OH
13%
IN
4%
IL
11%
KY
4%
TN
3%
NC
3%
Other /
National
9%
FL
32%
($ in millions)
C&I
Commercial
mortgage
Commercial
construction
Commercial
lease
Total
commercial
Residential
mortgage
Home equity
Auto
Credit card
consumer
Total consumer
Total loans &
leases
Loan balances
$25,683
$11,803
$3,784
$3,535
$44,805
$8,035
$12,174
$8,995
$1,990
$780
$31,974
$76,779
% of total
33%
15%
5%
5%
58%
10%
16%
12%
3%
1%
42%
NPAs
$781
$985
$707
$67
$2,540
$523
$71
$23
$87
$0
$704
$3,244
NPA ratio
3.04%
8.34%
18.68%
1.90%
5.67%
6.51%
0.58%
0.26%
4.38%
0.08%
2.20%
4.21%
Net charge-offs
$183
$142
$135
$8
$468
$78
$82
$32
$44
$4
$240
$708
Net charge-off ratio
2.81%
4.69%
13.28%
0.88%
4.08%
3.82%
2.65%
1.38%
8.81%
2.49%
2.97%
3.62%
Other


4
Fifth Third Bank | All Rights Reserved
Portfolio performance drivers
Performance Largely Driven By
No Participation In
Discontinued or Suspended Lending
* Residential construction-related consumer mortgages intended to be held in portfolio until permanent financing complete. Jumbo mortgage originations currently
being held due to market conditions.
Geography
Florida and Michigan most stressed
Remaining Midwest and Southeast performance 
reflect economic trends
Products
Homebuilder/developer charge-offs $110 million in
4Q09
Total charge-off ratio 3.6% (3.1% ex-HBs)
Commercial charge-off ratio 4.1% (3.2% ex-
HBs)
Brokered home equity charge-offs 7.0% in 4Q09
Direct home equity portfolio 1.9%
4Q09 NCO Ratios
Coml
Cons
Total
FL/MI
8.4%
5.3%
7.1%
Other
2.5%
2.1%
2.3%
Subprime
Option ARMs
Discontinued in 2007
Brokered home equity ($1.9B)
Suspended in 2008
Homebuilder/residential development ($1.6B)
Other non-owner occupied commercial RE
excluding homebuilder/developer ($8.0B)
Saleability
All mortgages originated for intended sale*
Total
4.1%
3.0%
3.6%


5
Fifth Third Bank | All Rights Reserved
Non-performing assets and net charge-offs:
Product view*
* NPAs exclude loans held-for-sale. Net charge-offs exclude losses on loans sold or transferred to held-for-sale in 4Q08.
During 1Q09 the Bancorp modified its nonaccrual policy to exclude TDR loans less than 90 days past due because they were performing in accordance with restructured
terms. For comparability purposes, prior periods were adjusted to reflect this reclassification.
Total NPAs
Total NCOs
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
4Q08
1Q09
2Q09
3Q09
4Q09
C&I/Lease
Auto/Other
CRE
Res RE
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4Q08
1Q09
2Q09
3Q09
4Q09
C&I/Lease
Auto/Other
CRE
Res RE


6
Fifth Third Bank | All Rights Reserved
-
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4Q08
1Q09
2Q09
3Q09
4Q09
Other SE
National
Other MW
Michigan
Florida
-
200
400
600
800
1,000
4Q08
1Q09
2Q09
3Q09
4Q09
Other SE
National
Other MW
Michigan
Florida
Total NPAs
Total NCOs
* NPAs exclude loans held-for-sale. Net charge-offs exclude losses on loans sold or transferred to held-for-sale in 4Q08.
During 1Q09 the Bancorp modified its nonaccrual policy to exclude TDR loans less than 90 days past due because they were performing in accordance with restructured
terms. For comparability purposes, prior periods were adjusted to reflect this reclassification.
Non-performing assets and net charge-offs:
Geographic view*


7
Fifth Third Bank | All Rights Reserved
Nonperforming assets*
Total NPAs of $3.2B
Homebuilder/developer NPAs of $548M;
represent 17% of total NPAs
Commercial NPAs of $2.5B; down 1% from   
the previous quarter
Consumer NPAs of $704M; up 7% from the  
previous quarter
17%
6%
17%
11%
4%
0%
14%
18%
13%
13%
18%
46%
1%
1%
7%
3%
4%
7%
21%
8%
11%
6%
2%
8%
7%
39%
16%
5%
10%
3%
11%
6%
29%
3%
17%
C&I^ (26%)
CRE (53%)
Residential (18%)
Other Consumer (3%)
Residential
$594M
18%
C&I*
$848M
26%
Other
$111M
3%
CRE
$1.7B
53%
^ C&I includes commercial lease
ILLINOIS
INDIANA
FLORIDA
TENNESSEE
KENTUCKY
OHIO
MICHIGAN
NORTH
CAROLINA
OTHER /
NATIONAL
* NPAs exclude loans held-for-sale.


8
Fifth Third Bank | All Rights Reserved
Commercial & industrial*
Loans by geography
Credit trends
Loans by industry
Comments
39% of 4Q09 losses on loans to companies in real estate
related industries
Loans to real estate related industries of $3.3B; 4Q09
NCO ratio of 8.5%
4Q09 C&I loss rate of 2.8%, excluding loans to real
estate related industries, 2.0%
FL represented 30% of 4Q09 losses, 7% of loans
OH
20%
IN
6%
Other
29%
NC
1%
TN
3%
IL
13%
KY
5%
FL
7%
MI
16%
* NPAs exclude loans held-for-sale. Net charge-offs exclude losses on loans sold or
transferred to held-for-sale in 4Q08.
Auto Retailers
3%
Wholesale
Trade
7%
Other
35%
Real Estate
8%
Manufacturing
19%
Finance &
Insurance
16%
Auto
Manufacturing
1%
Construction
5%
Retail Trade
4%
Accomodation
2%
($ in millions)
4Q08
1Q09
2Q09
3Q09
4Q09
Balance
$29,197
$28,617
$28,409
$26,175
$25,683
90+ days delinquent
$76
$131
$142
$256
$118
as % of loans
0.26%
0.46%
0.50%
0.98%
0.46%
NPAs
$548
$675
$634
$790
$781
as % of loans
1.88%
2.36%
2.23%
3.02%
3.04%
Net charge-offs
$151
$103
$177
$256
$183
as % of loans
5.03%
1.45%
2.53%
3.70%
2.81%
C&I


9
Fifth Third Bank | All Rights Reserved
Commercial mortgage*
Accomodation
4%
Retail Trade
4%
Construction
10%
Auto
Manufacturing
0%
Finance &
Insurance
1%
Manufacturing
5%
Real Estate
50%
Other
21%
Wholesale
Trade
2%
Auto Retailers
3%
Loans by geography
Credit trends
Loans by industry
Comments
Owner occupied 4Q09 NCO ratio of 2.2%, other non-owner
occupied 4Q09 NCO ratio of 6.9%
In 4Q08 reduced concentrations in most stressed markets (FL
and MI)
Loans from FL/MI represented 39% of total loans, 56% of total
losses in 4Q09
OH
27%
IN
6%
NC
7%
IL
10%
KY
4%
TN
2%
Other
5%
FL
13%
MI
26%
* NPAs exclude loans held-for-sale. Net charge-offs exclude losses on loans sold or
transferred to held-for-sale in 4Q08.
($ in millions)
4Q08
1Q09
2Q09
3Q09
4Q09
Balance
$12,502
$12,560
$12,407
$12,105
$11,803
90+ days delinquent
$136
$124
$131
$184
$59
as % of loans
1.09%
0.99%
1.06%
1.52%
0.50%
NPAs
$502
$718
$791
$968
$985
as % of loans
4.02%
5.72%
6.37%
8.00%
8.34%
Net charge-offs
$151
$77
$85
$118
$142
as % of loans
2.84%
2.50%
2.73%
3.82%
4.69%
Commercial mortgage


10
Fifth Third Bank | All Rights Reserved
Commercial construction*
Accomodation
1%
Auto Retailers
1%
Finance &
insurance
3%
Construction
33%
Manufacturing
1%
Real estate
48%
Retail Trade
1%
Other
11%
Wholesale
Trade
1%
Loans by geography
Credit trends
Loans by industry
Comments
OH
29%
IN
6%
IL
10%
KY
3%
TN
4%
NC
8%
Other
8%
FL
18%
MI
14%
* NPAs exclude loans held-for-sale. Net charge-offs exclude losses on
loans sold or transferred to held-for-sale in 4Q08.
($ in millions)
4Q08
1Q09
2Q09
3Q09
4Q09
Balance
$5,114
$4,745
$4,491
$4,147
$3,784
90+ days delinquent
$73
$49
$60
$168
$16
as % of loans
1.44%
1.02%
1.34%
4.04%
0.44%
NPAs
$400
$597
$735
$751
$707
as % of loans
7.82%
12.59%
16.36%
18.11%
18.68%
Net charge-offs
$151
$76
$79
$126
$135
as % of loans
10.00%
6.21%
6.76%
11.56%
13.28%
Commercial construction
Owner occupied 4Q09 NCO ratio of 6.8%, other non-owner
occupied 4Q09 NCO ratio of 14.8%
In 4Q08 reduced concentrations in most stressed markets (FL
and MI)
Loans from FL/MI represented 32% of total loans, 61% of total
losses in 4Q09


11
Fifth Third Bank | All Rights Reserved
Homebuilders/developers*
Loans by geography
Credit trends
Loans by industry
Comments
Making no new loans to builder/developer sector
Residential & land valuations under continued stress
3% of commercial loans; 2% of total loans
Balance by product approximately 42% Construction, 
45% Mortgage, 13% C&I
MI
18%
OH
24%
IN
7%
IL
5%
KY
4%
TN
5%
NC
15%
Other
2%
FL
20%
C&I
13%
Commercial
construction
42%
Commercial
mortgage
45%
* NPAs exclude loans held-for-sale. Net charge-offs exclude losses on
loans sold or transferred to held-for-sale in 4Q08.
($ in millions)
4Q08
1Q09
2Q09
3Q09
4Q09
Balance
$2,481
$2,322
$2,102
$1,846
$1,563
90+ days delinquent
$74
$37
$53
$79
$19
as % of loans
2.98%
1.59%
2.51%
4.29%
1.19%
NPAs
$366
$554
$613
$600
$548
as % of loans
14.74%
23.87%
29.14%
32.51%
35.09%
Net charge-offs
$128
$64
$76
$108
$110
as % of loans
19.71%
10.73%
14.06%
21.92%
26.25%
Homebuilders/developers


12
Fifth Third Bank | All Rights Reserved
st
Residential mortgage
1
liens:
100%
;
weighted
average
LTV:
78%
Weighted average origination FICO: 728
Origination FICO distribution:  <660 10%; 660-689 8%; 690-719
12%;
720-749
13%;
750+
30%;
Other
^
27%
(note: loans <660 includes CRA loans and FHA/VA loans)
Origination LTV distribution: <=70 26%; 70.1-80 41%; 80.1-90
11%; 90.1-95 5%; >95% 17%
Vintage distribution: 2009 6%; 2008 13%; 2007 16%; 2006 16%;
2005 25%; 2004 and prior 24%
% through broker: 13%; performance similar to direct
Loans by geography
Credit trends
Portfolio details
Comments
28% FL concentration driving 59% of total losses
FL lots ($281M) running at 30% annualized loss rate (YTD)
Mortgage company originations targeting 95% salability
MI
14%
OH
22%
IN
5%
IL
8%
KY
4%
TN
2%
NC
6%
Other
11%
FL
28%
^ Includes acquired loans where FICO at origination is not available
During 1Q09 the Bancorp modified its nonaccrual policy to exclude TDR loans less than 90 days past due because they were performing in accordance with restructured
terms. For comparability purposes, prior periods were adjusted to reflect this reclassification.
($ in millions)
4Q08
1Q09
2Q09
3Q09
4Q09
Balance
$9,385
$8,875
$8,489
$8,229
$8,035
90+ days delinquent
$198
$231
$242
$198
$189
as % of loans
2.11%
2.60%
2.85%
2.41%
2.35%
NPAs
$397
$475
$475
$484
$523
as % of loans
4.23%
5.35%
5.59%
5.89%
6.51%
Net charge-offs
$68
$75
$112
$92
$78
as % of loans
2.90%
3.27%
5.17%
4.38%
3.82%
Residential mortgage


13
Fifth Third Bank | All Rights Reserved
nd
Home equity
1
liens:
26%;
2
liens:
74%
Weighted average origination FICO: 757
Origination FICO distribution: <660 4%; 660-689 8%; 690-719 13%; 720-749
17%; 750+ 48%; Other 10%
Weighted
average
CLTV:
76%
(1
liens
61%;
liens
81%)
Origination     
CLTV distribution: <=70 38%; 70.1-80 21%; 80.1-90 18%; 90.1-95 8%; >95
15%
Vintage distribution: 2009 5%; 2008 12%; 2007 12%; 2006 16%; 2005 15%;
2004 and prior 40%
% through broker channels: 16% WA FICO: 739 brokered, 760 direct; WA
CLTV: 90% brokered; 73% direct
Portfolio details
Comments
Brokered loans by geography
Direct loans by geography
Credit trends
Approximately 16% of portfolio concentration in broker product driving
approximately 42% total loss
Portfolio
experiencing
increased
loss
severity
(losses
on
2
liens
approximately 100%)
Aggressive home equity line management strategies in place
Note: Brokered and direct home equity net charge-off ratios are calculated based on end of period loan balances
^ Includes acquired loans where FICO at origination is not available
MI
21%
OH
33%
IN
9%
IL
12%
KY
8%
Other
1%
FL
9%
NC
5%
TN
2%
MI
21%
OH
25%
IN
10%
IL
11%
KY
7%
Other
20%
FL
3%
NC
1%
TN
2%
st
nd
st
nd
($ in millions)
4Q08
1Q09
2Q09
3Q09
4Q09
Balance
$2,313
$2,225
$2,125
$2,028
$1,948
90+ days delinquent
$37
$42
$34
$38
$33
as % of loans
1.58%
1.91%
1.58%
1.87%
1.72%
Net charge-offs
$26
$30
$39
$30
$34
as % of loans
4.52%
5.46%
7.41%
5.96%
7.02%
Home equity -
brokered
($ in millions)
4Q08
1Q09
2Q09
3Q09
4Q09
Balance
$10,439
$10,486
$10,386
$10,349
$10,226
90+ days delinquent
$58
$61
$63
$66
$65
as % of loans
0.55%
0.59%
0.61%
0.64%
0.64%
Net charge-offs
$27
$42
$49
$49
$48
as % of loans
1.04%
1.62%
1.91%
1.89%
1.85%
Home equity -
direct


14
Fifth Third Bank | All Rights Reserved
Florida market*
Deterioration in real estate values having effect on credit trends as evidenced by increasing NPA/NCOs in real estate related products
Homebuilders, developers tied to
weakening real estate market
Increasing severity of loss due to
significant declines in valuations
Valuations; relatively small home
equity portfolio
22%
20%
9%
29%
13%
6%
1%
COML
MORTGAGE
C&I
RESI
MORTGAGE
OTHER
CONS
COML
CONST
COML
LEASE
HOME
EQUITY
AUTO
CREDIT
CARD
Total Loans
NPAs
NCOs
31%
32%
23%
12%
1%
1%
24%
20%
25%
20%
2%
7%
2%
* NPAs exclude loans held-for-sale.
($ in millions)
Loans
(bn)
% of
FITB
NPAs
(mm)
% of
FITB
NCOs
(mm)
% of
FITB
Commercial loans
1.7
       
7%
110
      
14%
56
        
30%
Commercial mortgage
1.5
       
13%
282
      
29%
44
        
31%
Commercial construction
0.7
       
18%
206
      
29%
56
        
42%
Commercial lease
0.0
       
1%
2
          
4%
-
       
0%
Commercial
3.9
       
9%
600
      
24%
156
      
33%
Mortgage
2.3
       
28%
270
      
52%
46
        
59%
Home equity
1.0
       
8%
6
          
9%
17
        
20%
Auto
0.5
       
5%
2
          
10%
4
          
13%
Credit card
0.1
       
6%
5
          
6%
5
          
11%
Other consumer
0.0
       
2%
0
          
23%
1
          
12%
Consumer
3.9
       
12%
283
      
40%
73
        
30%
Total
7.8
       
10%
883
      
27%
229
      
32%


15
Fifth Third Bank | All Rights Reserved
Michigan market*
Deterioration in home price values coupled with weak economy impacting credit trends due to frequency of defaults and severity
Homebuilders, developers tied to
weak real estate market
Negative impact from housing
valuations, economy,
unemployment
Economic weakness impacts
commercial real estate market
31%
4%
7%
20%
2%
23%
9%
1%
3%
COML
MORTGAGE
C&I
RESI
MORTGAGE
OTHER
CONS
COML
CONST
COML
LEASE
HOME
EQUITY
AUTO
CREDIT
CARD
Total Loans
NPAs
NCOs
8%
15%
2%
27%
24%
6%
18%
27%
37%
15%
2%
4%
1%
10%
4%
* NPAs exclude loans held-for-sale.
($ in millions)
Loans
(bn)
% of
FITB
NPAs
(mm)
% of
FITB
NCOs
(mm)
% of
FITB
Commercial loans
4.1
       
16%
145
      
19%
40
        
22%
Commercial mortgage
3.0
       
26%
194
      
20%
35
        
25%
Commercial construction
0.5
       
14%
81
        
11%
27
        
20%
Commercial lease
0.2
       
6%
10
        
14%
0
          
0%
Commercial
7.8
       
17%
430
      
17%
102
      
22%
Mortgage
1.1
       
14%
55
        
10%
11
        
15%
Home equity
2.6
       
21%
22
        
30%
22
        
27%
Auto
0.9
       
10%
4
          
18%
4
          
11%
Credit card
0.3
       
16%
20
        
22%
8
          
19%
Other consumer
0.1
       
10%
0
          
4%
1
          
12%
Consumer
5.0
       
16%
101
      
14%
46
        
19%
Total
12.8
     
17%
531
      
16%
148
      
21%


16
Fifth Third Bank | All Rights Reserved
Cautionary statement
This
report
may
contain
statements
that
we
believe
are
“forward-looking
statements”
within
the
meaning
of
Section
27A
of
the
Securities
Act of 1933, as amended, and Rule 175 promulgated thereunder, and Section 21E of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended,
and Rule 3b-6 promulgated thereunder. These statements relate to our financial condition, results of operations, plans, objectives, future
performance
or
business.
They
usually
can
be
identified
by
the
use
of
forward-looking
language
such
as
“will
likely
result,”
“may,”
“are
expected to,”
“is anticipated,”
“estimate,”
“forecast,”
“projected,”
“intends to,”
or may include other similar words or phrases such as
“believes,”
“plans,”
“trend,”
“objective,”
“continue,”
“remain,”
or
similar
expressions,
or
future
or
conditional
verbs
such
as
“will,”
“would,”
“should,”
“could,”
“might,”
“can,”
or
similar
verbs.
You
should
not
place
undue
reliance
on
these
statements,
as
they
are
subject
to
risks and
uncertainties,
including
but
not
limited
to
the
risk
factors
set
forth
in
our
most
recent
Annual
Report
on
Form
10-K
and
our
most
recent
quarterly report on Form 10-Q. When considering these forward-looking statements, you should keep in mind these risks and
uncertainties,
as
well
as
any
cautionary
statements
we
may
make.
Moreover,
you
should
treat
these
statements
as
speaking
only
as
of
the
date they are made and based only on information then actually known to us.
There are a number of important factors that could cause future results to differ materially from historical performance and these forward-
looking statements. Factors that might cause such a difference include, but are not limited to: (1) general economic conditions and
weakening in the economy, specifically the real estate market, either nationally or in the states in which Fifth Third, one or more acquired
entities and/or the combined company do business, are less favorable than expected; (2) deteriorating credit quality; (3) political
developments, wars or other hostilities may disrupt or increase volatility in securities markets or other economic conditions; (4) changes in
the interest rate environment reduce interest margins; (5) prepayment speeds, loan origination and sale volumes, charge-offs and loan
loss provisions; (6) Fifth Third’s ability to maintain required capital levels and adequate sources of funding and liquidity; (7) maintaining
capital requirements may limit Fifth Third’s operations and potential growth; (8) changes and trends in capital markets; (9) problems
encountered by larger or similar financial institutions may adversely affect the banking industry and/or Fifth Third (10) competitive
pressures
among
depository
institutions
increase
significantly;
(11)
effects
of
critical
accounting
policies
and
judgments;
(12)
changes
in
accounting policies or procedures as may be required by the Financial Accounting Standards Board (FASB) or other regulatory agencies;
(13) legislative
or
regulatory
changes
or
actions,
or
significant
litigation,
adversely
affect
Fifth
Third,
one
or
more
acquired
entities
and/or
the
combined
company
or
the
businesses
in
which
Fifth
Third,
one
or
more
acquired
entities
and/or
the
combined
company
are
engaged;
(14) ability
to
maintain
favorable
ratings
from
rating
agencies;
(15)
fluctuation
of
Fifth
Third’s
stock
price;
(16)
ability
to
attract
and
retain
key personnel; (17) ability to receive dividends from its subsidiaries; (18) potentially dilutive effect of future acquisitions on current
shareholders’
ownership
of
Fifth
Third;
(19)
effects
of
accounting
or
financial
results
of
one
or
more
acquired
entities;
(20)
difficulties
in
separating Fifth Third Processing Solutions from Fifth Third; (21) loss of income from any sale or potential sale of businesses that could
have
an
adverse
effect
on
Fifth
Third’s
earnings
and
future
growth;
(22)
ability
to
secure
confidential
information
through
the
use
of
computer systems and telecommunications networks; and (23) the impact of reputational risk created by these developments on such
matters as business generation and retention, funding and liquidity.
You
should
refer
to
our
periodic
and
current
reports
filed
with
the
Securities
and
Exchange
Commission,
or
“SEC,”
for
further
information
on other factors, which could cause actual results to be significantly different from those expressed or implied by these forward-looking
statements.