EX-99.4 5 dex994.htm SECOND QUARTER 2008 CREDIT TRENDS Second Quarter 2008 Credit Trends
Fifth Third Bank | All Rights Reserved
Second Quarter 2008 Credit Trends
Exhibit 99.4


2
Fifth Third Bank | All Rights Reserved
($ in millions)
C&I
Commercial
mortgage
Commercial
construction
Commercial
lease
Total
commercial
Residential
mortgage
Home equity
Auto
Credit card
Other
consumer
Total
consumer
Total loans &
leases
Loan balances
$28,958
$13,394
$6,007
$3,647
$52,006
$9,866
$12,421
$8,362
$1,717
$1,152
$33,518
$85,524
% of total
34%
16%
7%
4%
61%
12%
15%
10%
2%
1%
39%
Non-performing assets
$414
$540
$552
$18
$1,524
$448
$183
$28
$15
$1
$674
$2,198
NPA ratio
1.43%
4.03%
9.19%
0.49%
2.93%
4.54%
1.47%
0.33%
0.88%
0.08%
2.00%
2.56%
Net charge-offs
$107
$21
$49
$0
$177
$63
$54
$26
$21
$3
$167
$344
Net charge-off ratio
1.52%
0.66%
3.46%
-0.01%
1.41%
2.57%
1.83%
1.21%
4.93%
1.31%
2.04%
1.66%
Credit by portfolio
C&I
32%
Home equity
16%
Other
consumer
1%
Auto
7%
Residential
mortgage
18%
Commercial
mortgage
6%
Commercial
construction
14%
Card
6%
MI
20%
KY
2%
Other
25%
IL
6%
OH
19%
IN
4%
FL
24%
Net charge-offs by loan type
Net charge-offs by geography


3
Fifth Third Bank | All Rights Reserved
Nonperforming assets
Total NPAs
of $2.2B, or 256bps
Commercial NPAs
of $1.5B; recent growth
driven by commercial construction and real
estate, particularly in Michigan, and Florida
Consumer NPAs
of $674M; recent growth
driven by residential real estate, particularly in
Michigan and Florida
17%
7%
17%
7%
14%
22%
16%
20%
3%
8%
1%
7%
39%
22%
31%
6%
4%
1%
4%
37%
17%
C&I* (20%)
CRE (49%)
Residential (29%)
Other Consumer (2%)
ILLINOIS
INDIANA
FLORIDA
OTHER
KENTUCKY
OHIO
MICHIGAN
Residential
$630M
29%
C&I*
$431M
20%
Other
$44M
2%
CRE
$1.1B
49%
*C&I includes commercial lease
30%
8%
4%
9%
22%
16%
11%


4
Fifth Third Bank | All Rights Reserved
NCOs
NPAs
Res
RE
CRE
NPA, charge-off growth driven by residential, commercial real estate
Res
RE
CRE
Real estate driving credit deterioration
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
Q2 2007
Q3 2007
Q4 2007
Q1 2008
Q2 2008
Auto
CRE
Res RE
0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
Q2 2007
Q3 2007
Q4 2007
Q1 2008
Q2 2008
C&I/Lease
Auto
Credit Card
Other
CRE
Res RE
C&I/Lease


5
Fifth Third Bank | All Rights Reserved
NCOs
NPAs
Stressed
markets
Stressed
markets
Michigan and Florida: most stressed markets
NPA, charge-off growth driven by Florida and Michigan
-
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
Q2 2007
Q3 2007
Q4 2007
Q1 2008
Q2 2008
Other SE
National
Other MW
Michigan
Florida
-
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
Q2 2007
Q3 2007
Q4 2007
Q1 2008
Q2 2008
Other SE
National
Other MW
Michigan
Florida


6
©
Fifth Third Bank | All Rights Reserved
Michigan market
Total Loans
Home Equity
17%
Credit Card
2%
Auto
7%
Resi Mortgage
9%
Coml Lease
1%
C&I
32%
Commercial
Mortgage
24%
Coml Const
7%
Other Cons
1%
NPAs
Home Equity
10%
Credit Card
1%
Auto
1%
Resi Mortgage
12%
Coml Lease
1%
C&I
15%
Commercial
Mortgage
27%
Coml Const
33%
Net charge-offs
Auto
5%
Other Cons
1%
Credit Card
6%
Home Equity
21%
Resi Mortgage
8%
C&I
24%
Commercial
Mortgage
15%
Coml Const
20%
Summary:
Deterioration in home price values coupled with weak economy (unemployment rate
of 7.4%) impacting credit trends due to frequency of defaults and severity
Issues: homebuilders, developers
tied to weak real estate market
Issues:  valuations, economy,
unemployment
Economic weakness impacts
commercial real estate market
($ in millions)
Loans
(bn)
% of
FITB
NPAs
(mm)
% of
FITB
NCOs
(mm)
% of
FITB
Commercial loans
5.01
    
17%
87
       
21%
16
         
15%
Commercial mortgage
3.86
    
29%
152
     
28%
10
         
50%
Commercial construction
1.16
    
19%
187
     
34%
14
         
29%
Commercial lease
0.22
    
6%
7
        
42%
(0)
         
3%
Commercial
10.24
  
20%
$434
28%
41
         
23%
Mortgage
1.43
    
15%
70
       
16%
6
          
9%
Home equity
2.68
    
22%
55
       
30%
15
         
27%
Auto
1.14
    
14%
4
        
15%
4
          
14%
Credit card
0.30
    
18%
3
        
20%
4
          
19%
Other consumer
0.12
    
10%
0
        
6%
0
          
12%
Consumer
5.67
    
17%
$132
20%
29
         
17%
Total
15.91
  
19%
$566
26%
69
         
20%


7
©
Fifth Third Bank | All Rights Reserved
Florida market
NPAs
Home Equity
2%
Resi Mortgage
32%
C&I
9%
Commercial
Mortgage
30%
Coml Const
27%
Net charge-offs
Auto
3%
Other Cons
1%
Credit Card
1%
Home Equity
10%
Resi Mortgage
47%
C&I
17%
Commercial
Mortgage
2%
Coml Const
19%
Summary:
Deterioration in real estate values having effect on credit trends as evidenced by
increasing NPA/NCOs in real estate related products
Issues: homebuilders, developers
tied to weakening real estate market
Issues: increasing severity of loss
due to significant declines in
valuations
Issues: valuations; relatively small
home equity portfolio
Total Loans
Home Equity
9%
Credit Card
1%
Auto
4%
Resi Mortgage
31%
C&I
21%
Commercial
Mortgage
20%
Coml Const
13%
Other Cons
1%
($ in millions)
Loans
(bn)
% of
FITB
NPAs
(mm)
% of
FITB
NCOs
(mm)
% of
FITB
Commercial loans
2.11
    
7%
61
       
15%
14
         
13%
Commercial mortgage
1.95
    
15%
215
     
40%
2
          
8%
Commercial construction
1.26
    
21%
193
     
35%
16
         
33%
Commercial lease
0.00
    
0%
-
      
0%
-
        
0%
Commercial
5.31
    
10%
$469
31%
32
         
18%
Mortgage
3.09
    
31%
233
     
52%
40
         
63%
Home equity
0.91
    
7%
14
       
8%
8
          
15%
Auto
0.42
    
5%
3
        
12%
2
          
9%
Credit card
0.08
    
5%
1
        
4%
1
          
5%
Other consumer
0.12
    
10%
0
        
14%
1
          
15%
Consumer
4.61
    
14%
$251
37%
52
         
31%
Total
9.92
    
12%
$720
33%
84
         
24%


8
©
Fifth Third Bank | All Rights Reserved
Commercial construction
FL
21%
KY
5%
IL
8%
MI
19%
IN
8%
Other
13%
OH
26%
Accomodation
1%
Auto Retailers
1%
Finance &
insurance
1%
Construction
37%
Manufacturing
1%
Real estate
44%
Retail Trade
1%
Other
8%
Wholesale
Trade
6%
Loans by geography
Credit trends
Loans by industry
Comments
Declining valuations in residential and land
developments
Higher concentrations in now stressed markets (Florida
and Michigan)
Continued stress expected through 2008
($ in millions)
2Q07
3Q07
4Q07
1Q08
2Q08
Balance
$5,469
$5,463
$5,561
$5,592
$6,007
90+ days delinquent
$33
$54
$67
$49
$53
90+ days ratio
0.60%
0.99%
1.21%
0.87%
0.88%
NPAs
$66
$106
$257
$418
$552
as % of loans
1.21%
1.94%
4.61%
7.48%
9.19%
Net charge-offs
$7
$5
$12
$72
$49
as % of loans
0.48%
0.35%
0.83%
5.20%
3.46%
Commercial construction


9
Fifth Third Bank | All Rights Reserved
Homebuilder/developer
Credit trends
Loans by property type
Comments
Other MW
21%
MI
22%
Other SE
21%
NE OH
4%
FL
32%
Raw &
developed
land
52%
Other
including
acquired
portfolio
29%
Residential
vertical
19%
*Current definition not in use prior to 3Q07
Making no new loans to builder/developer sector
Residential & land valuations under continued stress
6% of commercial loans; < 4% of total gross loans
Balance by product approximately 53% Construction,
39% Mortgage, 8% C&I
12% of loans are speculative loans
C&I
8%
Commercial
mortgage
39%
Commercial
construction
53%
Portfolio split
Loans by geography
($ in millions)
3Q07
4Q07
1Q08
2Q08
Balance
$2,594
$2,868
$2,705
$3,295
90+ days delinquent
$50
$57
$60
$123
90+ days ratio
1.94%
1.99%
2.21%
3.73%
NPAs
$78
$176
$309
$547
as % of loans
3.01%
6.14%
11.42%
16.62%
Net charge-offs
$4
$8
$43
$34
as % of loans
0.54%
1.11%
6.14%
4.63%
Homebuilders/developers*


10
©
Fifth Third Bank | All Rights Reserved
Residential mortgage
1   liens: 100% ; weighted average LTV: 77%
Weighted average origination FICO: 728
Origination FICO distribution:  <659 13%; 660-689 11%; 690-719
17%; 720-749 18%; 750+ 41%
(note: loans <659 includes CRA loans and FHA/VA loans)
Origination LTV distribution: <70 26%; 70.1-80 42%; 80.1-90 11%;
90.1-95 5%; >95% 16%
Vintage distribution: 2008 8%; 2007 18%; 2006 17%; 2005 28%;
2004 14%; prior to 2004 15%
% through broker: 12%; performance similar to direct
OH
23%
FL
31%
IL
6%
KY
4%
MI
15%
IN
6%
Other
15%
Loans by geography
Credit trends
Portfolio details
Comments
31% FL concentration driving 63% total loss
FL lots ($454 mm) running at 15% annualized loss
rate (YTD)
Mortgage company originations targeting 95%
salability
($ in millions)
2Q07
3Q07
4Q07
1Q08
2Q08
Balance
$8,477
$9,057
$10,540
$9,873
$9,866
90+ days delinquent
$98
$116
$186
$192
$229
90+ days ratio
1.15%
1.28%
1.76%
1.95%
2.32%
NPAs
$112
$150
$216
$333
$448
as % of loans
1.32%
1.65%
2.04%
3.37%
4.54%
Net charge-offs
$9
$9
$18
$34
$63
as % of loans
0.43%
0.41%
0.72%
1.33%
2.57%
Residential mortgage


11
©
Fifth Third Bank | All Rights Reserved
Home equity
liens:
24%;
2     liens:
76%
(18%
of
2    liens
behind
FITB
s)
Weighted average origination FICO: 755
Origination FICO distribution: <659 5%; 660-689 9%; 690-719 16%; 720-
749 19%; 750+ 51%
Weighted
average
CLTV:
77%
(1   liens
65%;
2    liens
82%)Origination
CLTV distribution: <70 28%; 70.1-80 22%; 80.1-90 21%; 90.1-95 10; >95
20%
Vintage distribution: 2008 7%; 2007 13%; 2006 19%; 2005 17%; 2004
13%; prior to 2004 31%
% through broker channels: 20% WA FICO: 740 brokered, 758 direct;
WA CLTV: 89% brokered; 74% direct
Portfolio details
Comments
OH
25%
FL
3%
IL
11%
KY
8%
MI
20%
IN
10%
Other
24%
OH
33%
FL
8%
IL
10%
KY
9%
MI
22%
IN
10%
Other
8%
Brokered loans by geography
Direct loans by geography
Credit trends
Approximately 20% of portfolio concentration in
broker product driving approximately 51% total loss
Portfolio experiencing increased loss severity (losses
on
2
liens
approximately
100%)
Aggressive home equity line management strategies
in place
($ in millions)
2Q07
3Q07
4Q07
1Q08
2Q08
Balance
$2,810
$2,746
$2,713
$2,651
$2,433
90+ days delinquent
$24
$30
$34
$33
$34
90+ days ratio
0.86%
1.08%
1.25%
1.26%
1.40%
Net charge-offs
$9
$14
$17
$23
$28
as % of loans
1.19%
1.94%
2.52%
3.29%
4.64%
Home equity - brokered
($ in millions)
2Q07
3Q07
4Q07
1Q08
2Q08
Balance
$8,970
$8,991
$9,161
$9,152
$9,988
90+ days delinquent
$37
$34
$38
$43
$42
90+ days ratio
0.41%
0.38%
0.41%
0.47%
0.42%
Net charge-offs
$11
$14
$15
$18
$27
as % of loans
0.48%
0.59%
0.66%
0.78%
1.07%
Home equity - direct
Note: Brokered and direct home equity net charge-off ratios
are calculated based on end of period loan balances


12
Fifth Third Bank | All Rights Reserved
Cautionary Statement
This report may contain forward-looking statements about Fifth Third Bancorp and/or the company as combined acquired entities within the meaning of
Sections
27A
of
the
Securities
Act
of
1933,
as
amended,
and
Rule
175
promulgated
thereunder,
and
21E
of
the
Securities
Exchange
Act
of
1934,
as
amended, and Rule 3b-6 promulgated thereunder, that involve inherent risks and uncertainties.  This report may contain certain forward-looking
statements
with
respect
to
the
financial
condition,
results
of
operations,
plans,
objectives,
future
performance
and
business
of
Fifth
Third
Bancorp
and/or
the
combined
company
including
statements
preceded
by,
followed
by
or
that
include
the
words
or
phrases
such
as
“believes,”
“expects,”
“anticipates,”
“plans,”
“trend,”
“objective,”
“continue,”
“remain”
or
similar
expressions
or
future
or
conditional
verbs
such
as
“will,”
“would,”
“should,”
“could,”
“might,”
“can,”
“may”
or similar expressions.  There are a number of important factors that could cause future results to differ materially from historical
performance and these forward-looking statements.  Factors that might cause such a difference include, but are not limited to: (1) general economic
conditions and weakening in the economy, specifically the real estate market, either national or in the states in which Fifth Third, one or more acquired
entities and/or the combined company do business, are less favorable than expected; (2) deteriorating credit quality; (3) political developments, wars or
other hostilities may disrupt or increase volatility in securities markets or other economic conditions; (4) changes in the interest rate environment reduce
interest margins; (5) prepayment speeds, loan origination and sale volumes, charge-offs and loan loss provisions; (6) Fifth Third’s ability to maintain
required capital levels and adequate sources of funding and liquidity; (7) changes and trends in capital markets; (8) competitive pressures among
depository institutions increase significantly; (9) effects of critical accounting policies and judgments; (10) changes in accounting policies or procedures
as may be required by the Financial Accounting Standards Board or other regulatory agencies; (11) legislative or regulatory changes or actions, or
significant litigation, adversely affect Fifth Third, one or more acquired entities and/or the combined company or the businesses in which Fifth Third, one
or more acquired entities and/or the combined company are engaged; (12) ability to maintain favorable ratings from rating agencies; (13) fluctuation of
Fifth Third’s stock price; (14) ability to attract and retain key personnel;
(15) ability to receive dividends from its subsidiaries; (16) potentially dilutive effect
of
future
acquisitions
on
current
shareholders'
ownership
of
Fifth
Third;
(17)
effects
of
accounting
or
financial
results
of
one
or
more
acquired
entities;
(18)
difficulties
in
combining
the
operations
of
acquired
entities;
(19)
inability
to
generate
the
gains
on
sale
and
related
increase
in
shareholders’
equity
that it anticipates from the sale of certain non-core businesses, (20) loss of income from the sale of certain non-core businesses could have an adverse
effect on Fifth Third’s earnings and future growth  (21) ability to secure confidential information through the use of computer systems and
telecommunications
networks;
and
(22)
the
impact
of
reputational
risk
created
by
these
developments
on
such
matters
as
business
generation
and
retention, funding and liquidity.  Additional information concerning factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those expressed or
implied in the forward-looking statements is available in the Bancorp's Annual Report on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2007, filed with the
United
States
Securities
and
Exchange
Commission
(SEC).
Copies
of
this
filing
are
available
at
no
cost
on
the
SEC's
Web
site
at
www.sec.gov
or
on
the
Fifth
Third’s
Web
site
at
www.53.com.
Fifth
Third
undertakes
no
obligation
to
release
revisions
to
these
forward-looking
statements
or
reflect
events
or
circumstances after the date of this report.