EX-99.3 4 dex993.htm JUNE 2008 CAPITAL PLANNING June 2008 Capital Planning
Fifth Third Bank | All Rights Reserved
June 2008
Capital Planning:
Credit Scenario Analysis
Exhibit 99.3


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©
Fifth Third Bank | All Rights Reserved
As of June 2008
Statement of purpose
These scenarios do not constitute a forecast or otherwise reflect Fifth
Third’s outlook for 2009 expected results.
This exercise was designed for evaluating capital plans rather than for
forecasting purposes. Therefore, it was intended to evaluate what could
happen under significantly more stressed conditions, not to predict what will
happen.
These
scenarios
were
produced
as
part
of
analysis
related
to
the
capital
plan announced June 18, 2008. It is based on information available at that
time.
Please refer to the cautionary statement attached to this document which
contains important information regarding certain forward-looking information
and risk factors related to current and future results.


3
©
Fifth Third Bank | All Rights Reserved
As of June 2008
Capital planning: credit scenario analysis
A key driver of the capital planning process was an analysis of potential credit losses under
variety of economic and credit market conditions
Analysis involved a detailed process that segregated our loan portfolio into approximately
50 granular pools of similar assets
e.g., loan type, collateral, industry exposure, and geography
Scenarios were created by applying varying levels of stress to the relevant factors that
affect asset pool performance
We believe the range of scenario outcomes represents reasonably possible results
under varying levels of potential stress
Capital plan based on maintaining Tier 1 capital ratio >8% through the end of 2009 under
the most stressed scenario evaluated
Credit modeling for capital plan intended to be conservative to ensure strong capital
position
This
was
an
exercise
in
what
could
happen,
not
what
will
happen
these
are
not
forecasts
We
do
not
view
high
stress
2009
outcome
to
be
likely,
we
view
it
as
possible
if
trends
continue or deteriorate further and loss severity experience worsens
Excess capital created through the capital plan also provides for outcomes resulting
from possible deterioration in credit trends beyond those currently viewed as
plausible


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©
Fifth Third Bank | All Rights Reserved
As of June 2008
Consumer charge-off
scenario methodology
Three-month moving average roll-rates used to project baseline charge-offs
through the end of 2009
Used forecasts for relevant economic indicators to predict loss severities
Relied upon Moody’s Economy.com/Case-Shiller Home Price Index
Forecast* for real estate
For the auto portfolio, assumed loss severity above recent loss given default
trends to reflect additional stress related to large SUVs and trucks given
higher recent gas prices –
this added incremental loss severity of 14% to
the overall auto portfolio in 2009
Stressed roll rate assumptions for all portfolios using economic
forecasts and
additional stress on loss frequency
For auto and credit cards, also used Moody’s forecast for bankruptcies to
apply additional stress
*Moody’s Economy.com/Case-Shiller Home Price Index Forecasts, April 2008.


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Fifth Third Bank | All Rights Reserved
As of June 2008
Consumer charge-off
scenario methodology (cont.)
High stress case added incremental losses related to severity and roll-
rate shocks
For Florida and lot exposures, used Moody’s Florida severe
recession home price forecast anticipating an additional 27%
decline in home prices through the end of 2009*; for rest of portfolio,
used Moody’s severe recession forecast for the national index,
anticipating an additional 25% decline in home prices through the
end of 2009*
Roll rates were further stressed in most consumer portfolios
These stress components represented approximately 55% in
additional losses incorporated into the high stress scenario over the
18 months ended YE 2009
*Peak-to-current and current-to-trough devaluation is not additive (peak-to-current would be calculated off peak prices; current-to-trough would be
calculated off current prices which embed devaluation from peak). For Florida, peak-to-current devaluation has been 22%, producing peak-to-trough
devaluation of 43%; for national index, peak-to-current devaluation has been 17%, producing peak-to-trough devaluation of 38%.
Moody
’s Economy.com/Case-Shiller Home Price Index Forecast, April 2008.


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©
Fifth Third Bank | All Rights Reserved
As of June 2008
Home price appreciation
trends and forecasts
Source:  Moody
’s Economy.com/Case-Shiller Home Price Index Forecast, April 2008
Florida
100
120
140
160
180
200
220
240
260
280
Baseline
Recession
Severe Recession
US
100
120
140
160
180
200
220
240
260
280
Baseline
Recession
Severe Recession
Ohio
100
120
140
160
180
200
220
240
260
280
Baseline
Recession
Severe Recession
Michigan
100
120
140
160
180
200
220
240
260
280
Baseline
Recession
Severe Recession


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©
Fifth Third Bank | All Rights Reserved
As of June 2008
Consumer segmentation for applying stress factors
Mortgage
Florida other than lots
Lots
All other
Home Equity
Delivery channel (Retail, retail brokered, HEA)
Loan-to-value (greater than and less than 85% LTV)
Type (loan or line)
Auto
New and used
SUV/truck and other
Credit card
Other
More granular segmentation for roll-rate analysis


8
Fifth Third Bank | All Rights Reserved
As of June 2008
Illustration of impact
of roll rate and severity stresses
Loss severities stressed as described earlier
Due
to
compounding
effects,
roll
rate
shocks
can
have
a
dramatic
effect
on
losses
In the example below, a 7% shock to each roll rate results in a 30% increase in losses holding all
else equal
Bankruptcy shocks would be another example of a roll-rate shock (not depicted)
Roll rate shocks are applied in combination with loss severity shock
The application of roll-rate shocks was an element of added conservativism, given that default unit
results have generally been in-line with forecasts
Assumptions for example:
5% roll rate from current to 1 month past
due shocked to 5.35%
5% roll rate from 1 month past due to 2
months past due shocked to 5.35%
5% roll rate from 2 month past due to 3
months past due shocked to 5.35%
5% roll rate from 3 month past due to
charge off shocked to 5.35%
20% loss severity at charge off (shocked
20% to 24%)
Example results in incremental 55% in losses
Illustration not intended to depict a
particular portfolio
$1,000
$1,200
$1,400
$1,600
$1,800
$2,000
$2,200
$2,400
$2,600
$2,800
$3,000
Months
Baseline Losses
Loss Severity Shock
Aggregate Shock (Loss
Severity and Roll Rate)


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Fifth Third Bank | All Rights Reserved
As of June 2008
Capital planning: 2008 commercial
charge-off scenario methodology
Commercial loan portfolio was segmented into 30 portfolios
10 industries segregated into 3 geographies (Florida, Michigan, and Other)
Asset quality trends over last 3 and 6 quarters extrapolated to project baseline
charge-off scenario for each portfolio
Inherent
in
baseline
is
continued
deterioration
following
recent
(typically
high) trends
Each portfolio was reviewed with appropriate senior lending officers to
determine if other segment specific factors should be included in the
scenarios
Additional scenarios were created by applying stresses to the baseline and by
incorporating the lagging correlation of portfolio performance to relevant leading
economic indicators
For real estate assets, property depreciation of 35%-50% was generally
applied to any properties on highest risk nonaccruals
Geographic economic outlooks, industry health, prior trends in asset quality, and
current or expected stresses were considered when developing the
range of
scenarios


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Fifth Third Bank | All Rights Reserved
As of June 2008
Capital planning: 2009 commercial          
charge-off scenario methodology
Builds upon 2008 methodology
Utilized Moody’s Economy.com Industry Workstation Net Income Forecasts by
industry to project baseline criticized assets (watch, classified, nonaccrual loans)
Moody’s industry net income forecast calls for modest improvement in
economic activity in 2009
Assumed migration from criticized to nonaccrual to charge-off consistent with
recent trends to create baseline
Baseline migration trends were stressed for certain segments (Michigan,
Florida and real estate industries) to reflect probable higher loss frequency
and severity than recently experienced
High stress scenario added 10% growth in criticized assets per quarter and
increased migration trends by 10-20% to the baseline
These stress components represented approximately 35% in additional
losses incorporated into the high stress scenario over the 18 months ended
YE 2009
* Moody
’s
Economy.com
Industry
Workstation
Net
Income
Forecasts,
May
2008.


11
Fifth Third Bank | All Rights Reserved
As of June 2008
Illustration of commercial
scenario methodology
2008
methodology
range
2009
methodology
range
Illustration not intended to depict a particular portfolio
$0
$10,000
$20,000
$30,000
$40,000
$50,000
$60,000
$70,000
$80,000
$90,000
$100,000
4Q'07
1Q'08
2Q'08
3Q'08
4Q'08
1Q'09
2Q'09
3Q'09
4Q'09
3 Quarter Trend
6 Quarter Trend
Scenario -
Low Stress
Baseline
Scenario -
High Stress


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©
Fifth Third Bank | All Rights Reserved
As of June 2008
Industries
Accommodation
Auto
Manufacturing
Construction
Finance and
Insurance
Manufacturing
Real Estate
Retail Trade
Auto Retailers
Wholesale Trade
Other
Commercial portfolio
segmentation
Geographies
Florida
Michigan
Other


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Fifth Third Bank | All Rights Reserved
As of June 2008
FY 2008
FY 2009
160-170 bps
$1.3-1.4 billion
bps
$
bps
$
bps
$
Actual
Actual
Scenarios
Scenarios
Scenarios
Scenarios
1H08
1H08
FY2008
#
FY2008
#
FY2009
FY2009
Commercial
132 bps
317 million
120-160 bps
$.6 -
.8 billion
125-215 bps
$.7 -
1.2 billion
Consumer
180 bps
303 million
170-205 bps
.6 -
.7 billion
230-295 bps
.8 -
1.0 billion
Total
152 bps
620 million
145-180 bps
$1.2 -
1.5 billion
170-250 bps
$1.5 -
2.2 billion
Scenarios (not projections or forecast)
TBD in 2009 budget process
Outlook (as of July 22, 2008)
Outcome of loan loss scenarios for capital plan
Purpose of credit scenario analysis:
Exercise designed for evaluating capital plans rather than for forecasting purposes (what could happen
under
a
variety
of
stress
scenarios,
not
what
will
happen);
as
a
result,
scenarios
do
not
reflect
the
Company’s
outlook
for
2009
expected
results
Scenarios produced for capital plan announced June 18, 2008, based on information available prior to
that date
Key loss drivers:
Real estate-related losses represented approximately two-thirds of 2009 losses in commercial and in
consumer scenarios
Capital plan intended to maintain Tier 1 capital ratio > 8% through end of 2009 under scenarios evaluated
The highest stress scenario outlined above (which we view as unlikely) would represent an increase in
charge-offs of approximately 60% relative to our full year 2008 outlook. We believe our Tier 1 capital
ratio would exceed 8% with 2009 loan losses of up to 85% more than expected 2008 loan losses
#2008 full-year scenario range adjusted to reflect 2Q08 actual results vs. May forecast for 2Q08.


14
Fifth Third Bank | All Rights Reserved
As of June 2008
Cautionary Statement
This report may contain forward-looking statements about Fifth Third Bancorp and/or the company as combined acquired entities within the meaning of
Sections
27A
of
the
Securities
Act
of
1933,
as
amended,
and
Rule
175
promulgated
thereunder,
and
21E
of
the
Securities
Exchange
Act
of
1934,
as
amended, and Rule 3b-6 promulgated thereunder, that involve inherent risks and uncertainties.  This report may contain certain forward-looking
statements
with
respect
to
the
financial
condition,
results
of
operations,
plans,
objectives,
future
performance
and
business
of
Fifth
Third
Bancorp
and/or
the
combined
company
including
statements
preceded
by,
followed
by
or
that
include
the
words
or
phrases
such
as
“believes,”
“expects,”
“anticipates,”
“plans,”
“trend,”
“objective,”
“continue,”
“remain”
or
similar
expressions
or
future
or
conditional
verbs
such
as
“will,”
“would,”
“should,”
“could,”
“might,”
“can,”
“may”
or similar expressions.  There are a number of important factors that could cause future results to differ materially from historical
performance and these forward-looking statements.  Factors that might cause such a difference include, but are not limited to: (1) general economic
conditions and weakening in the economy, specifically the real estate market, either national or in the states in which Fifth Third, one or more acquired
entities and/or the combined company do business, are less favorable than expected; (2) deteriorating credit quality; (3) political developments, wars or
other hostilities may disrupt or increase volatility in securities markets or other economic conditions; (4) changes in the interest rate environment reduce
interest margins; (5) prepayment speeds, loan origination and sale volumes, charge-offs and loan loss provisions; (6) Fifth Third’s ability to maintain
required capital levels and adequate sources of funding and liquidity; (7) changes and trends in capital markets; (8) competitive pressures among
depository institutions increase significantly; (9) effects of critical accounting policies and judgments; (10) changes in accounting policies or procedures
as may be required by the Financial Accounting Standards Board or other regulatory agencies; (11) legislative or regulatory changes or actions, or
significant litigation, adversely affect Fifth Third, one or more acquired entities and/or the combined company or the businesses in which Fifth Third, one
or more acquired entities and/or the combined company are engaged; (12) ability to maintain favorable ratings from rating agencies; (13) fluctuation of
Fifth Third’s stock price; (14) ability to attract and retain key personnel;
(15) ability to receive dividends from its subsidiaries; (16) potentially dilutive effect
of
future
acquisitions
on
current
shareholders'
ownership
of
Fifth
Third;
(17)
effects
of
accounting
or
financial
results
of
one
or
more
acquired
entities;
(18)
difficulties
in
combining
the
operations
of
acquired
entities;
(19)
inability
to
generate
the
gains
on
sale
and
related
increase
in
shareholders’
equity
that it anticipates from the sale of certain non-core businesses, (20) loss of income from the sale of certain non-core businesses could have an adverse
effect on Fifth Third’s earnings and future growth  (21) ability to secure confidential information through the use of computer systems and
telecommunications
networks;
and
(22)
the
impact
of
reputational
risk
created
by
these
developments
on
such
matters
as
business
generation
and
retention, funding and liquidity. Moreover,.  Additional information concerning factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those
expressed or implied in the forward-looking statements is available in the Bancorp's Annual Report on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31,
2007, filed with the United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). Copies of this filing are available at no cost on the SEC's Web site at
www.sec.gov
or
on
the
Fifth
Third’s
Web
site
at
www.53.com.
Fifth
Third
undertakes
no
obligation
to
release
revisions
to
these
forward-looking
statements
or reflect events or circumstances after the date of this report.