EX-99.2 3 d318534dex992.htm EX-99.2 EX-99.2

Exhibit 99.2

 

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Investor Update   Issue Date: January 17, 2017

This investor update provides guidance and certain forward-looking statements about United Continental Holdings, Inc. (the “Company” or “UAL”). The information in this investor update contains the preliminary financial and operational outlook for the Company for first-quarter and full-year 2017.

 

First-Quarter and Full-Year 2017 Outlook

   Estimated 1Q 2017     Estimated FY 2017  

Consolidated Capacity Year-Over-Year Change Higher/(Lower)

     1.0     —          2.0     1.0     —           2.0

Pre-Tax Margin, as adjusted1

     0.5     —          2.5       

Revenue

             

Consolidated PRASM (¢/ASM)

     11.88        —          12.12          

Year-Over-Year Change Higher/(Lower)

     (1.0 %)      —          1.0       

Cargo and Other Revenue ($M)

   $ 1,180        —        $ 1,280          

Non-Fuel Operating Expense

             

Consolidated CASM Excluding Fuel, Profit Sharing & Third-Party Business Expenses1 (¢/ASM)

     10.72        —          10.82        10.15        —           10.25   

Year-Over-Year Change Higher/(Lower)

     4.5     —          5.5     3.5     —           4.5

Third-Party Business Expenses2 ($M)

   $ 70        —        $ 80          

Aircraft Rent ($M)

   $ 165        —        $ 170          

Depreciation and Amortization ($M)

   $ 515        —        $ 520          

Profit Sharing ($M)

   $ 0        —        $ 30          

Consolidated Fuel Expense

             

Fuel Consumption (Million Gallons)

       ~910            

Consolidated Average Aircraft Fuel Price per Gallon 3, 4

       ~$1.76            

Non-Operating Expense ($M)

   $ 105        —        $ 135          

Effective Income Tax Rate

       ~37         

Gross Capital Expenditures5 ($M)

   $ 1,400        —        $ 1,420      $ 4,200        —         $ 4,400   

Diluted Share Count6 (M)

       315            

 

1. Excludes special charges, the nature and amount of which are not determinable at this time
2. Third-party business revenue associated with third-party business expenses is recorded in other revenue
3. Fuel price including taxes and fees
4. This price per gallon corresponds to fuel expense as reported in the income statement
5. Capital expenditures include net purchase deposits, assets acquired through the issuance of debt, airport construction financing and exclude fully reimbursable capital projects
6. Does not include an assumption related to future share repurchases. Diluted share count is approximately equal to basic share count

 

 

 

 

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Non-Fuel Expense: The guidance provided in this investor update includes the impact of all labor agreements ratified in 2016, which is expected to add approximately 4 points of impact to unit costs in the first quarter of 2017 and 3 to 4 points of impact to unit costs for the full year of 2017.

Profit Sharing: Due to recently ratified labor agreements, the Company’s profit sharing plans have changed for 2017. The Company now expects to pay:

    Approximately 7.4% of total adjusted earnings up to a 6.9% adjusted pre-tax margin
    Approximately 13.1% for any adjusted earnings above a 6.9% adjusted pre-tax margin
    Approximately 1.7% for any adjusted earnings above the prior year’s adjusted pre-tax earnings

Adjusted earnings for the purposes of profit sharing are calculated as GAAP pre-tax earnings, excluding special items, profit sharing expense and share-based compensation program expense. These estimates are consistent with the Company’s current labor agreements. The Company estimates that share-based compensation expense for the purposes of the profit sharing calculation will be approximately $21 million in the first quarter of 2017.

Taxes: The Company expects a tax rate of approximately 37% for the first quarter of 2017. However, the Company expects that there will be no material cash taxes due to United’s net operating loss carryforwards (NOLs), which were approximately $8 billion as of year-end 2015. These NOLs are projected to offset (or minimize) cash income taxes for several years.

First-Quarter and Full-Year 2017 Capacity

 

     Estimated 1Q 2017
Year-Over-Year  %
Change Higher/(Lower)
    Estimated FY 2017
Year-Over-Year  %
Change Higher/(Lower)
 

Capacity (Million ASMs)

              

Consolidated Capacity

              

Domestic

     1.5     —           2.5     1.5     —           2.5

International

     0.5     —           1.5     0.5     —           1.5

Total Consolidated Capacity

     1.0     —           2.0     1.0     —           2.0

 

 

Fleet Plan

As of January 17, 2017, the Company’s fleet plan was as follows:

 

     YE 2016      YE 2017      FY D  

B747-400

     20         —           (20

B777-200/300

     76         88         12   

B787-8/9

     30         33         3   

B767-300/400

     51         51         —     

B757-200/300

     77         77         —     

B737-700/800/900

     325         329         4   

A319/A320

     158         164         6   
  

 

 

    

 

 

    

 

 

 

Total Mainline Aircraft

     737         742         5   
     YE 2016      YE 2017      FY D  

Q300

     5         —           (5

Q200

     16         16         —     

Embraer ERJ 145

     183         164         (19

Embraer ERJ 135

     5         5         —     

CRJ200

     50         38         (12

CRJ700

     79         63         (16

Embraer 170

     38         38         —     

Embraer E175

     118         153         35   
  

 

 

    

 

 

    

 

 

 

Total Regional Aircraft

     494         477         (17

 

 

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GAAP to Non-GAAP Reconciliations

UAL is providing guidance utilizing various accounting principles generally accepted in the United States of America (“GAAP”) and Non-GAAP financial measures, including pre-tax margin, as adjusted, non-operating expense and cost per available seat mile (“CASM”), as adjusted. CASM is a common metric used in the airline industry to measure an airline’s cost structure and efficiency. UAL reports CASM excluding profit sharing, third-party business expenses, fuel and special charges. Non-GAAP financial measures are presented because they provide management and investors the ability to measure and monitor UAL’s performance on a consistent basis.

Pursuant to SEC Regulation G, UAL has included the following reconciliation of reported Non-GAAP financial measures to comparable financial measures reported on a GAAP basis.

UAL believes excluding profit sharing allows investors to better understand and analyze our recurring cost performance and provides a more meaningful comparison of our core operating costs to the airline industry. UAL believes that adjusting for special charges is useful to investors because they are non-recurring charges not indicative of UAL’s ongoing performance. UAL also believes that excluding third-party business expenses, such as maintenance, ground handling and catering services for third parties, fuel sales and non-air mileage redemptions, provides more meaningful disclosure because these expenses are not directly related to UAL’s core business. UAL believes that excluding fuel costs from certain measures is useful to investors because it provides an additional measure of management’s performance excluding the effects of a significant cost item over which management has limited influence. In addition, UAL believes that excluding non-cash (gains)/losses on fuel derivative contracts from non-operating expense is useful because it allows investors to better understand the impact of settled hedges on a given period’s results.

 

Consolidated Unit Cost (¢/ASM)    Estimated
1Q 2017
 

Consolidated CASM Excluding Special Charges (a)

     13.55                13.72   

Less: Profit Sharing Expense

     0.00                0.05   
  

 

 

      

 

 

 

Consolidated CASM Excluding Profit Sharing & Special Charges

     13.55                13.67   

Less: Third-Party Business Expense

     0.12                0.14   
  

 

 

      

 

 

 

Consolidated CASM Excluding Profit Sharing, Third-Party Business Expenses & Special Charges

     13.43                13.53   

Less: Fuel Expense (b)

     2.71                2.71   
  

 

 

      

 

 

 

Consolidated CASM Excluding Fuel, Profit Sharing, Third-Party Business Expense & Special Charges

     10.72                10.82   
Consolidated Unit Cost (¢/ASM)    Estimated
FY 2017
 

Consolidated CASM Excluding Profit Sharing & Special Charges (a)

     13.01                13.20   

Less: Third-Party Business Expense and Fuel Expense (b)

     2.86                2.95   
  

 

 

      

 

 

 

Consolidated CASM Excluding Fuel, Profit Sharing, Third-Party Business Expense & Special Charges

     10.15                10.25   

 

(a) Excludes special charges, such as the impact of certain primarily non-cash impairment, severance and other similar accounting charges. While the Company anticipates that it will record such special charges throughout the year, at this time the Company is unable to provide an estimate of these charges, as well as an estimate of full-year profit sharing, with reasonable certainty.

(b) Both the cost and availability of fuel are subject to many economic and political factors and are therefore beyond the Company’s control.

Safe Harbor Statement under the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995:

Certain statements included in this investor update are forward-looking and thus reflect our current expectations and beliefs with respect to certain current and future events and anticipated financial and operating performance. Such forward-looking statements are and will be subject to many risks and uncertainties relating to our operations and business environment that may cause actual results to differ materially from any future results expressed or implied in such forward-looking statements. Words such as “expects,” “will,” “plans,” “anticipates,” “indicates,” “believes,” “forecast,” “guidance,” “outlook” and similar expressions are intended to identify forward-looking statements. Additionally, forward-looking statements include statements that do not relate solely to historical facts, such as statements which identify uncertainties or trends, discuss the possible future effects of current known trends or uncertainties or which indicate that the future effects of known trends or uncertainties cannot be predicted, guaranteed or assured. All forward-looking statements in this investor update are based upon information available to us on the date of this investor update. We undertake no obligation to publicly update or revise any forward-looking statement, whether as a result of new information, future events, changed circumstances or otherwise, except as required by applicable law. Our actual results could differ materially from these forward-looking statements due to numerous factors including, without limitation, the following: our ability to comply with the terms of our various financing arrangements; the costs and availability of financing; our ability to maintain adequate liquidity; our ability to execute our operational plans and revenue-generating initiatives, including optimizing our revenue; our ability to control our costs, including realizing benefits from our resource optimization efforts, revenue-generating initiatives, cost reduction initiatives and fleet replacement programs; our ability to utilize our net operating losses; our ability to attract and retain customers; demand for transportation in the markets in which we operate; an outbreak of a disease that affects travel demand or travel behavior; demand for travel and the impact that global economic conditions have on customer travel patterns; excessive taxation and the inability to offset future taxable income; general economic conditions (including interest rates, foreign currency exchange rates, investment or credit market conditions, crude oil prices, costs of aircraft fuel and energy refining capacity in relevant markets); economic and political instability and other risks of doing business globally; any potential realized or unrealized gains or losses related to fuel or currency hedging programs; the effects of any hostilities, act of war or terrorist attack; the ability of other air carriers with whom we have alliances or partnerships to provide the services contemplated by the respective arrangements with such carriers; disruptions to our regional network; the costs and availability of aviation and other insurance; industry consolidation or changes in airline alliances; competitive pressures on pricing and on demand; our capacity decisions and the capacity decisions of our competitors; U.S. or foreign governmental legislation, regulation and other actions (including Open Skies agreements and environmental regulations); the impact of regulatory, investigative and legal proceedings and legal compliance risks; the impact of any management changes; labor costs; our ability to maintain satisfactory labor relations and the results of any collective bargaining agreement process with our union groups; any disruptions to operations due to any potential actions by our labor groups; weather conditions; and other risks and uncertainties set forth under Part I, Item 1A., “Risk Factors,” of UAL’s Annual Report on Form 10-K for the fiscal year ended December 31, 2015, as well as other risks and uncertainties set forth from time to time in the reports we file with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.

For further questions, contact Investor Relations at (872) 825-8610 or investorrelations@united.com

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