EX-99.2 3 d714258dex992.htm EX-99.2 EX-99.2

Exhibit 99.2

 

LOGO    LOGO
Investor Update    Issue Date: April 24, 2014

This investor update provides guidance and certain forward looking statements about United Continental Holdings, Inc. (the “Company” or “UAL”). The information in this investor update contains the financial and operational outlook for the Company for second quarter and full year 2014.

Capacity

For second quarter 2014, the Company estimates its consolidated system available seat miles (“ASMs”) to be between flat and up 1.0% as compared to the same period in the prior year. The Company estimates its full-year 2014 consolidated system ASMs to increase between 0.5% and 1.5% year-over-year.

Revenue

The Company expects its second-quarter 2014 consolidated passenger revenue per available seat mile (“PRASM”) to increase between 1.0% and 3.0% versus the second quarter of 2013.

Advance Booked Seat Factor (Percentage of Available Seats that are Sold)

Compared to the same period last year, for the next six weeks, mainline domestic advance booked seat factor is down 2.9 points and mainline international advance booked seat factor is down 0.2 points. Mainline Atlantic advance booked seat factor is down 0.6 points, mainline Pacific advance booked seat factor is down 1.2 points and mainline Latin America advance booked seat factor is up 0.9 points. Regional advance booked seat factor is down 1.8 points.

Non-Fuel Expense

For the second quarter 2014, the Company expects consolidated cost per ASM (“CASM”), excluding profit sharing, fuel, third-party business expenses and special charges, to increase 1.25% to 2.25% year-over-year. The Company expects full-year 2014 consolidated CASM, excluding profit sharing, fuel, third-party business expenses and special charges, to increase 1.0% to 2.0% year-over-year.

The Company expects to record approximately $200 million of third-party business expense in the second quarter and approximately $560 million for full year 2014. This is lower than previous full-year 2014 third-party business expense guidance due to the Company discontinuing an agreement to sell fuel to a third party effective June 30, 2014. Corresponding third-party business revenue associated with third-party business activities is recorded in other revenue.

Fuel Expense

UAL estimates its consolidated fuel price, including the impact of cash-settled hedges, to be between $3.10 and $3.15 per gallon for the second quarter and between $3.11 and $3.16 for full year 2014. These estimates are based on the April 17, 2014 fuel forward curve.

Non-Operating Expense

The Company estimates non-operating expense to be between $150 million and $180 million for the second quarter and between $670 million and $720 million for full year 2014.

The Company excludes non-cash gains/losses on fuel hedges from its non-operating expense and non-GAAP earnings.

Profit Sharing and Share-Based Compensation

For 2014, the Company will pay approximately 10% of total adjusted earnings as profit sharing to employees for adjusted earnings up to a 6.9% adjusted pre-tax margin and approximately 14% for any adjusted earnings above that amount. Adjusted earnings for the purposes of profit sharing are calculated as GAAP pre-tax earnings, excluding special items, profit sharing expense and share-based compensation program expense.

Share-based compensation expense for the purposes of the profit sharing calculation is estimated to be $18 million in the second quarter and $85 million for full year 2014.

Capital Expenditures and Scheduled Debt and Capital Lease Payments

The Company expects between $770 million and $820 million of gross capital expenditures in the second quarter and between $2.9 billion and $3.1 billion for full year 2014, including net purchase deposits. UAL’s gross capital expenditures exclude fully reimbursable capital projects.

The Company expects debt and capital lease payments to total approximately $290 million in the second quarter and approximately $1.5 billion for full year 2014.

Pension Expense and Contributions

The Company estimates that its pension expense will be approximately $130 million for 2014. This amount excludes non-cash settlement charges related to lump-sum distributions. The Company expects to make approximately $290 million of cash contributions to its defined benefit pension plans in 2014.

Taxes

UAL currently expects to record minimal cash income taxes in 2014.

 

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Company Outlook

Second-Quarter and Full-Year 2014 Operational Outlook

 

     Estimated 2Q 2014      Year-Over-
Year %
Change
Higher/(Lower)		     Estimated FY 2014      Year-Over-Year %
Change
Higher/
(Lower)		  

Capacity (Million ASMs)

                                 

Mainline Capacity

                                 

Domestic

      26,969       -      27,242         (1.4 %)    -      (0.4 %)                 

Atlantic

      12,323       -      12,447         (0.5 %)    -      0.5 %                 

Pacific

      10,082       -      10,181         2.0 %    -      3.0 %                 

Latin America

      5,703       -      5,757         5.9 %    -      6.9 %                 

Total Mainline Capacity

      55,077       -      55,627         0.1 %    -      1.1 %                 

Regional

      8,153       -      8,236         (1.1 %)    -      (0.1 %)                 

Consolidated Capacity

                                 

Domestic

      34,833       -      35,187         (1.4 %)    -      (0.4 %)      137,003       -      138,384         (0.8 %)    -      0.2 % 

International

      28,397       -      28,676         1.7 %    -      2.7 %      109,467       -      110,540         2.0 %    -      3.0 % 

Total Consolidated Capacity

      63,230       -      63,863         0.0 %    -      1.0 %      246,470       -      248,924         0.5 %    -      1.5 % 

Traffic (Million RPMs)

                                 

Mainline Traffic

                                 

Domestic

                                 

Atlantic

                                 

Pacific

                                 

Latin America

                                 

Total Mainline System Traffic

            Traffic guidance to be provided at a future date   

Regional System Traffic

                                 

Consolidated System Traffic

                                 

Domestic System

                                 

International System

                                 

Total Consolidated System Traffic

                                 

Load Factor

                                 

Mainline Load Factor

                                 

Domestic

                                 

Atlantic

                                 

Pacific

                                 

Latin America

                                 

Total Mainline Load Factor

            Load factor guidance to be provided at a future date   

Regional Load Factor

                                 

Consolidated Load Factor

                                 

Domestic

                                 

International

                                 

Total Consolidated Load Factor

                                 

(more)

 

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Company Outlook

Second-Quarter and Full-Year 2014 Financial Outlook

 

    Estimated 2Q 2014     Year-Over-Year %
Change
Higher/(Lower)		     Estimated
FY 2014		     Year-Over-Year
% Change
Higher/(Lower)		  

Revenue (¢/ASM)

                         

Mainline Passenger Unit Revenue

     12.54      -     12.78        1.0 %    -     3.0 %              

Consolidated Passenger Unit Revenue

     13.84      -     14.11        1.0 %    -     3.0 %              

Operating Expense1 (¢/ASM)

                         

Mainline Unit Cost Excluding Profit Sharing & Third-Party Business Expenses

     13.55      -     13.72        1.6 %    -     2.8 %      13.67      -     13.83        0.1 %    -      1.3 % 

Consolidated Unit Cost Excluding Profit Sharing & Third-Party Business Expenses

     14.37      -     14.55        1.3 %    -     2.6 %      14.51      -     14.69        (0.1 %)    -      1.2 % 

Non-Fuel Expense1 (¢/ASM)

                         

Mainline Unit Cost Excluding Profit Sharing, Fuel & Third-Party Business Expenses

     8.94      -     9.03        1.5 %    -     2.5 %      9.05      -     9.14        1.0 %    -      2.0 % 

Consolidated Unit Cost Excluding Profit Sharing, Fuel & Third-Party Business Expenses

     9.44      -     9.54        1.25 %    -     2.25 %      9.58      -     9.68        1.0 %    -      2.0 % 

Third-Party Business Expenses ($M)

     $200             $560         

Select Expense Measures ($M)

                         

Aircraft Rent

     $225             $890         

Depreciation and Amortization

     $420             $1,660         

Fuel Expense

                         

Mainline Fuel Consumption (Million Gallons)

     825             3,205         

Consolidated Fuel Consumption (Million Gallons)

     1,010             3,935         

Consolidated Fuel Price Excluding Hedges (Price per Gallon)

   $ 3.10      -   $ 3.15            $ 3.11      -   $ 3.16          

Consolidated Fuel Price Including Cash-settled Hedges (Price per Gallon)

   $ 3.10      -   $ 3.15            $ 3.11      -   $ 3.16          

Non-Operating Expense ($M)

                         

Non-Operating Expense2

   $ 150      -   $ 180            $ 670      -   $ 720          

Income Taxes

                         

Effective Income Tax Rate

     0%             0%         

Capital Expenditures

                         

Gross Capital Expenditures incl. Purchase Deposits

   $ 770M      -   $ 820M            $ 2.9B      -   $ 3.1B          

Debt and Capital Lease Payments

     $290M             $1.5B         

 

1. Excludes special charges
2. Excludes non-cash gains/losses on fuel hedges

 

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Company Outlook

Fuel Price Sensitivity

As of April 17, 2014, the Company had hedged 25% of its projected fuel requirements for second quarter 2014, 20% for third quarter 2014 and 24% for full year 2014. The Company uses a combination of three-way and four-way collars on aircraft fuel, Brent crude oil and diesel fuel.

With the Company’s current portfolio, hedge gains/losses are recorded in both fuel expense and non-operating expense (cash-settled and non-cash). The table below outlines the Company’s estimated cash hedge impacts at various price points relative to the baseline April 17, 2014 fuel forward curve, where Brent crude spot price was $109.53 per barrel.

 

Brent Fuel Scenarios*

   

Cash Hedge Impact

    2Q14
forecast		     3Q14
forecast		     4Q14
forecast		  
+$40 / Barrel    Fuel Price Excluding Hedge** ($/gal)    $ 4.08      $ 4.09      $ 4.04   
   Hedge Gain/(Loss) ($/gal)      0.09        0.06        0.06   
+$30 / Barrel    Fuel Price Excluding Hedge** ($/gal)    $ 3.84      $ 3.85      $ 3.80   
   Hedge Gain/(Loss) ($/gal)      0.08        0.06        0.06   
+$20 / Barrel    Fuel Price Excluding Hedge** ($/gal)    $ 3.60      $ 3.61      $ 3.56   
   Hedge Gain/(Loss) ($/gal)      0.07        0.06        0.06   
+$10 / Barrel    Fuel Price Excluding Hedge** ($/gal)    $ 3.36      $ 3.38      $ 3.32   
   Hedge Gain/(Loss) ($/gal)      0.04        0.04        0.03   
Current Price ($109.53/bbl)    Fuel Price Excluding Hedge** ($/gal)    $ 3.13      $ 3.14      $ 3.09   
   Hedge Gain/(Loss) ($/gal)      0.00        (0.01 )      (0.01 ) 
($10) / Barrel    Fuel Price Excluding Hedge** ($/gal)    $ 2.89      $ 2.90      $ 2.85   
   Hedge Gain/(Loss) ($/gal)      (0.00 )      (0.02 )      (0.02 ) 
($20) / Barrel    Fuel Price Excluding Hedge** ($/gal)    $ 2.65      $ 2.66      $ 2.61   
   Hedge Gain/(Loss) ($/gal)      (0.02 )      (0.04 )      (0.05 ) 
($30) / Barrel    Fuel Price Excluding Hedge** ($/gal)    $ 2.41      $ 2.42      $ 2.37   
   Hedge Gain/(Loss) ($/gal)      (0.05 )      (0.09 )      (0.10 ) 
($40) / Barrel    Fuel Price Excluding Hedge** ($/gal)    $ 2.17      $ 2.18      $ 2.13   
   Hedge Gain/(Loss) ($/gal)      (0.10 )      (0.14 )      (0.15 ) 

 

* Projected fuel scenarios represent hypothetical fuel curves parallel to the baseline April 17, 2014 curve and are meant to illustrate the behavior of our fuel hedge portfolio at different commodity price points
** Fuel price per gallon excluding hedge impacts, but including taxes and transportation costs

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Company Outlook

Fleet Plan

As of April 24, 2014, the Company’s fleet plan was as follows:

 

     Mainline Aircraft in Scheduled Service  
     YE 2013      1Q D     2Q D     3Q D     4Q D     YE2014      FY D  

B747-400

      23         —          —          —          —          23         —     

B777-200

      74         —          —          —          —          74         —     

B787-8/9

      8         2        —          2        2        14         6   

B767-300/400

      51         —          —          —          (1 )      50         (1 ) 

B757-200/300

      131         (3 )      (9 )      (11 )      (14 )      94         (37 ) 

B737-700/800/900

      254         9        9        5        6        283         29   

A319/A320

      152         —          —          —          —          152         —     
  

 

 

     

 

 

    

 

 

    

 

 

    

 

 

    

 

 

     

 

 

  

Total Mainline Aircraft

      693         8        —          (4 )      (7 )      690         (3 ) 

 

     Regional Aircraft in Scheduled Service  
     YE 2013      1Q D      2Q D     3Q D     4Q D     YE2014      FY D  

Q400

      28         —           —          —          —          28         —     

Q300

      5         —           —          —          —          5         —     

Q200

      16         —           —          —          —          16         —     

ERJ-145

      277         —           (18 )      (9 )      (7 )      243         (34 ) 

ERJ-135

      9         —           —          —          (9 )      —           (9 ) 

CRJ200

      75         —           —          —          —          75         —     

CRJ700

      115         —           —          —          —          115         —     

EMB 120

      9         —           —          —          —          9         —     

EMB 170

      38         —           —          —          —          38         —     

EMB 175

      —           —           6        8        13        27         27   
  

 

 

     

 

 

     

 

 

    

 

 

    

 

 

    

 

 

     

 

 

  

Total Regional Aircraft

      572         —           (12 )      (1 )      (3 )      556         (16 ) 

Share Count

These share count charts are based upon several assumptions including market stock price and number of shares outstanding. The number of shares used in the actual earnings per share calculation will likely be different from those set forth below.

 

     2Q 2014  
   (Estimated)  
     Basic Share Count      Diluted Share Count      Interest Add-back  

Net Income

    (in millions)      (in millions)      (in $ millions)  

Less than or equal to $0

      373         373       $ —     

$1 million—$43 million

      373         373         —     

$44 million—$71 million

      373         380         1   

$72 million—$331 million

      373         392         3   

$332 million or greater

      373         396         7   
     Full Year 2014  
   (Estimated)  
     Basic Share Count      Diluted Share Count      Interest Add-back  

Net Income

    (in millions)      (in millions)      (in $ millions)  

Less than or equal to $0

      372         372       $ —     

$1 million—$173 million

      372         372         —     

$174 million—$285 million

      372         380         3   

$286 million—$1.326 billion

      372         392         13   

$1.327 billion or greater

      372         396         28   

 

(more)

 

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GAAP to Non-GAAP Reconciliations

UAL evaluates its financial performance utilizing various accounting principles generally accepted in the United States of America (“GAAP”) and non-GAAP financial measures, including net income/loss excluding special items, net earnings/loss per share excluding special items, and CASM, among others. CASM is a common metric used in the airline industry to measure an airline’s cost structure and efficiency. Pursuant to SEC Regulation G, UAL has included the following reconciliation of reported non-GAAP financial measures to comparable financial measures reported on a GAAP basis. UAL believes that adjusting for special items is useful to investors because special charges are non-recurring charges not indicative of UAL’s ongoing performance. In addition, the company believes that adjusting for MTM (gains) losses from fuel hedges settling in future periods and prior period gains on fuel contracts settled in the current period is useful because the adjustments allow investors to better understand the cash impact of settled hedges in a given period. UAL also believes that excluding third-party business expenses, such as maintenance, ground handling and catering services for third parties, fuel sales and non-air mileage redemptions, provides more meaningful disclosure because these expenses are not directly related to UAL’s core business. UAL also believes that excluding fuel costs from certain measures is useful to investors because it provides an additional measure of management’s performance excluding the effects of a significant cost item over which management has limited influence.

 

     Estimated
2Q 2014		     Estimated
FY 2014		  
     Low     High     Low      High  

Mainline Unit Cost (¢/ASM)

          

Mainline CASM Excluding Profit Sharing

      13.91        14.08        13.93         14.09   

Special Charges (a)

      —          —          —           —     
  

 

 

    

 

 

    

 

 

     

 

 

  

Mainline CASM Excluding Profit Sharing & Special Charges (b)

      13.91        14.08        13.93         14.09   

Less: Third-Party Business Expenses

      0.36        0.36        0.26         0.26   
  

 

 

    

 

 

    

 

 

     

 

 

  

Mainline CASM Excluding Profit Sharing, Third-Party Business Expenses & Special Charges (b)

      13.55        13.72        13.67         13.83   

Less: Fuel Expense (c)

      4.61        4.69        4.62         4.69   
  

 

 

    

 

 

    

 

 

     

 

 

  

Mainline CASM Excluding Profit Sharing, Third-Party Business Expenses, Fuel & Special Charges (b)

      8.94        9.03        9.05         9.14   
     Low     High     Low      High  

Consolidated Unit Cost (¢/ASM)

          

Consolidated CASM Excluding Profit Sharing

      14.68        14.86        14.74         14.92   

Special Charges (a)

      —          —          —           —     
  

 

 

    

 

 

    

 

 

     

 

 

  

Consolidated CASM Excluding Profit Sharing & Special Charges (b)

      14.68        14.86        14.74         14.92   

Less: Third-Party Business Expenses

      0.31        0.31        0.23         0.23   
  

 

 

    

 

 

    

 

 

     

 

 

  

Consolidated CASM Excluding Profit Sharing, Third-Party Business Expenses & Special Charges (b)

      14.37        14.55        14.51         14.69   

Less: Fuel Expense (c)

      4.93        5.01        4.93         5.01   
  

 

 

    

 

 

    

 

 

     

 

 

  

Consolidated CASM Excluding Profit Sharing, Third-Party Business Expenses, Fuel & Special Charges (b)

      9.44        9.54        9.58         9.68   
     Low     High     Low      High  

Non-operating Expense ($M)

          

Non-operating expense

    $ 171      $ 201      $ 634       $ 684   

Non-cash fuel hedge adjustments

      (21 )      (21 )      36         36   
  

 

 

    

 

 

    

 

 

     

 

 

  

Non-operating expense, adjusted (b)

    $ 150      $ 180      $ 670       $ 720   

 

(a) Operating expense per ASM – CASM excludes special charges, the impact of certain primarily non-cash impairment, severance and other similar accounting charges. While the Company anticipates that it will record such special charges throughout the year and may record profit sharing, at this time the Company is unable to provide an estimate of these charges with reasonable certainty.
(b) These financial measures provide management and investors the ability to measure and monitor the Company’s performance on a consistent basis.
(c) Both the cost and availability of fuel are subject to many economic and political factors and are therefore beyond the Company’s control.

 

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Safe Harbor Statement under the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995:

Certain statements included in this investor update are forward-looking and thus reflect our current expectations and beliefs with respect to certain current and future events and financial performance. Such forward-looking statements are and will be subject to many risks and uncertainties relating to our operations and business environment that may cause actual results to differ materially from any future results expressed or implied in such forward-looking statements. Words such as “expects,” “will,” “plans,” “anticipates,” “indicates,” “believes,” “forecast,” “guidance,” “outlook” and similar expressions are intended to identify forward-looking statements. Additionally, forward-looking statements include statements that do not relate solely to historical facts, such as statements which identify uncertainties or trends, discuss the possible future effects of current known trends or uncertainties or which indicate that the future effects of known trends or uncertainties cannot be predicted, guaranteed or assured. All forward-looking statements in this report are based upon information available to us on the date of this report. We undertake no obligation to publicly update or revise any forward-looking statement, whether as a result of new information, future events, changed circumstances or otherwise, except as required by applicable law. Our actual results could differ materially from these forward-looking statements due to numerous factors including, without limitation, the following: our ability to comply with the terms of our various financing arrangements; the costs and availability of financing; our ability to maintain adequate liquidity; our ability to execute our operational plans and revenue-generating initiatives, including optimizing our revenue; our ability to control our costs, including realizing benefits from our resource optimization efforts, cost reduction initiatives and fleet replacement programs; our ability to utilize our net operating losses; our ability to attract and retain customers; demand for transportation in the markets in which we operate; an outbreak of a disease that affects travel demand or travel behavior; demand for travel and the impact that global economic conditions have on customer travel patterns; excessive taxation and the inability to offset future taxable income; general economic conditions (including interest rates, foreign currency exchange rates, investment or credit market conditions, crude oil prices, costs of aircraft fuel and energy refining capacity in relevant markets); economic and political instability and other risks of doing business globally; our ability to cost-effectively hedge against increases in the price of aircraft fuel; any potential realized or unrealized gains or losses related to fuel or currency hedging programs; the effects of any hostilities, act of war or terrorist attack; the ability of other air carriers with whom we have alliances or partnerships to provide the services contemplated by the respective arrangements with such carriers; disruptions to our regional network; the costs and availability of aviation and other insurance; industry consolidation or changes in airline alliances; competitive pressures on pricing and on demand; our capacity decisions and the capacity decisions of our competitors; U.S. or foreign governmental legislation, regulation and other actions (including open skies agreements and environmental regulations); labor costs; our ability to maintain satisfactory labor relations and the results of the collective bargaining agreement process with our union groups; any disruptions to operations due to any potential actions by our labor groups; weather conditions; the possibility that expected merger synergies will not be realized or will not be realized within the expected time period; and other risks and uncertainties set forth under Part I, Item 1A, Risk Factors, of UAL’s Annual Report on Form 10-K, as well as other risks and uncertainties set forth from time to time in the reports we file with the SEC.

For further questions, contact Investor Relations at (872) 825-8610 or investorrelations@united.com

 

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