EX-99.(C)(8) 10 dex99c8.htm PRESENTATION BY GOLDMAN SACHS & CO. - DATED MARCH 11, 2009 Presentation by Goldman Sachs & Co. - dated March 11, 2009

Exhibit (c)(8)

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Francis Special Committee Discussion Materials

Goldman, Sachs & Co.

11-Mar-2009


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Table of Contents

I. Summary Overview II. Public Market Perspectives III. Financial Analysis A. Discounted Cash Flow Analysis

B. Present Value of Future Stock Price Analysis C. Precedent Transactions Appendix A: Transaction Related Financial Analysis Appendix B: Supplementary Materials


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I. Summary Overview

Summary Overview 3


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Project Nobel Market Tracker

Change from 1 Day Prior Change Since

09-Mar-2009 18-Jul-2008 1 Week 1 Month 3 Month 2-Jan-2008 Francis $92.63 $1.77 1.9 % 13.2 % 13.5 % 12.0 % 24.5 % 37.4 % BTK 541.77 (22.10) (3.9) (31.9) (4.2) (24.0) (10.7) (31.2) S&P 500 676.53 (6.85) (1.0) (46.3) (3.5) (22.2) (22.8) (53.3) AMEX Pharmaceutical Index 218.63 (2.48) (1.1) (28.7) (0.2) (18.3) (15.0) (35.1)

James CHF133.30 CHF4.50 3.5 % (25.8)% 7.4 % (10.3)% (19.1)% (30.6)% Swiss Exchange 4,307.67 (3.94) (0.1) (36.9) (2.9) (16.5) (22.1) (48.2) FTSE 350 Pharma & Biotech 6,751.28 26.73 0.4 (10.9) (1.8) (17.0) (14.7) (14.1) James (ADR) $28.63 $0.93 3.4 (22.3) 9.7 (10.2) (17.3) (33.7)

Currency Exchange Rate (CHF / $) 1.1583 0.0006 0.05 % 13.25 % (1.45)% (0.50)% (3.75)% 3.47 %

James Francis Offer Price

James announced bid to Tender Price New Tender Price Francis Trading Volume

130% 50 acquire Francis for $89 Francis announced that James’ $89 Francis Special Committee James raises 120% proposal substantially undervalues the unanimously recommends stock tender company $95/share holders do not tender shares 40

3 Month Avg Vol: 4.9mm $89/share 13.2% (mm) 110%

Price 30

$86.50/share

Volume

100% Francis announced that James files tender 20 Indexed it has formed a Special 90% Committee to evaluate James announces intent Trading James’ offer to tender

10 Daily

80%

(25.8)%

70% 0

18-Jul-2008 28-Aug-2008 9-Oct-2008 19-Nov-2008 2-Jan-2009 13-Feb-2009

Source: FactSet as of 09-Mar-2009

Summary Overview 4


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II. Public Market Perspectives

Public Market Perspectives 5


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Relative Stock Price Performance History

Francis vs. Large Cap Biotech, Large Pharma and S&P 500 Index

5 Years

310% 280% 250%

Price 220%

87.5% 190% 160% 69.8% Indexed 130% 100% (8.9%)

70%

40% (40.7%)

Mar- Nov- Aug- Apr- Jan- Sep- Jun- Feb-2004 2004 2005 2006 2007 2007 2008 2009

Daily from 09-Mar-2004 to 09-Mar-2009

1 Year

130% 120%

16.7%

110%

Price 100%

90% (16.4%) Indexed 80% 70% (18.1%)

60%

(47.7%)

50%

Mar- Apr- Jun- Aug- Sep- Nov- Jan- Feb-2008 2008 2008 2008 2008 2008 2009 2009

Daily from 07-Mar-2008 to 09-Mar-2009

Since Offer

130% 120% 110% 13.2% Price 100% 90% (22.5%) Indexed 80% (25.8%)

70% 60%

(46.3%)

50%

Jul- Aug- Sep- Oct- Nov- Dec- Feb- Mar-2008 2008 2008 2008 2008 2008 2009 2009

Daily from 18-Jul-2008 to 09-Mar-2009

Francis Large Cap Biotech ¹

3 Months

130% 24.5%

120%

Price 110%

100%

(10.3%) Indexed 90% (14.0%) 80% (22.8%)

70%

Dec- Dec- Dec- Jan- Jan- Feb- Feb- Mar-2008 2008 2008 2009 2009 2009 2009 2009

Daily from 05-Dec-2008 to 09-Mar-2009

Large Pharma ² S&P 500 Index

1 Source: FactSet as of 09-Mar-2009

2 Large Cap Biotech Composite includes: Amgen, Biogen Idec, Celgene, Genzyme and Gilead.

Large Pharma Composite includes: Abbott, AstraZeneca, Bayer, Bristol-Myers Squibb, Eli Lilly, GSK, JNJ, Merck, Novartis, Novo Nordisk, Pfizer, Sanofi-Aventis, Schering-Plough and Wyeth.

Public Market Perspectives 6


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Relative Stock Price Performance History

Francis vs. James, Large Cap Biotech, Large Pharma and Other Indices since 18-Jul-2008

% Change Since

130% 18-Jul-08 12-Aug-08 10-Dec-08 20-Feb-09

Francis ($95) 16.1% (2.9)% 22.7% 11.7% Francis (Current) 13.2% (5.3)% 19.7% 9.0% 120% James (25.8)% (28.1)% (20.7)% (5.7)% Large Cap Biotech¹ (25.8)% (29.4)% (13.7)% (18.5)% Large Pharma² (22.5)% (24.3)% (11.3)% (10.5)%

13.2%

NASDAQ Biotech Index (28.3)% (33.7)% (11.1)% (15.7)% 110% S&P 500 Index (46.3)% (47.5)% (24.8)% (12.1)%

100% Price Indexed 90%

80% (22.5%) (25.8%) (25.8%)

70%

(28.3%)

60%

(46.3%)

50%

Jul-2008 Aug-2008 Sep-2008 Oct-2008 Nov-2008 Dec-2008 Feb-2009 Mar-2009

Daily from 18-Jul-2008 to 09-Mar-2009

Francis (Current) James Large Cap Biotech¹ Large Pharma² NASDAQ Biotech Index S&P 500 Index

1 Source: FactSet as of 09-Mar-2009

2 Large Cap Biotech Composite includes: Amgen, Biogen Idec, Celgene, Genzyme and Gilead.

Large Pharma Composite includes: Abbott, AstraZeneca, Bayer, Bristol-Myers Squibb, Eli Lilly, GSK, JNJ, Merck, Novartis, Novo Nordisk, Pfizer, Sanofi-Aventis, Schering-Plough and Wyeth.

Public Market Perspectives 7


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Relative Stock Price Performance

Francis vs. Top 20 Largest US Companies by Market Cap as of 09-Mar-2009

Market Cap 18-Jul-2008 12-Aug-2008 10-Dec-2008 20-Feb-2009 09-Mar-2009 Company ($ mm) Price % Change Price % Change Price % Change Price % Change Price

Francis $97,578 $81.82 13.2% $97.85 (5.3)% $77.40 19.7% $85.02 9.0% $92.63 Exxon Mobil 319,081 81.54 (20.8)% 76.88 (16.0)% 80.07 (19.4)% 71.23 (9.3)% 64.57 Wal-Mart Stores 186,360 57.92 (18.0)% 59.25 (19.8)% 55.25 (14.0)% 50.02 (5.0)% 47.51 Microsoft 134,692 25.86 (41.4)% 28.12 (46.1)% 20.61 (26.5)% 18.00 (15.8)% 15.15 Procter & Gamble 129,484 63.67 (30.6)% 70.34 (37.2)% 59.12 (25.3)% 50.25 (12.1)% 44.18 Johnson & Johnson 128,887 67.82 (31.3)% 71.70 (35.0)% 57.80 (19.4)% 54.65 (14.7)% 46.60 AT&T 128,003 32.12 (32.4)% 31.65 (31.4)% 28.08 (22.6)% 23.58 (7.9)% 21.72 Chevron 116,826 86.05 (32.3)% 83.56 (30.3)% 78.44 (25.7)% 65.07 (10.4)% 58.28 Berkshire Hathaway 113,351 117,290.00 (37.6)% 116,800.00 (37.3)% 104,590.00 (30.0)% 77,000.00 (4.9)% 73,195.00 IBM 112,003 129.89 (35.7)% 125.22 (33.3)% 82.86 0.7% 88.79 (6.0)% 83.48 Google 91,716 481.32 (39.6)% 502.61 (42.1)% 308.82 (5.8)% 346.45 (16.0)% 290.89 Coca-Cola 89,693 50.03 (22.5)% 54.79 (29.3)% 45.31 (14.5)% 42.84 (9.5)% 38.75 Pfizer 85,193 18.32 (31.1)% 19.72 (36.0)% 16.57 (23.8)% 13.71 (7.9)% 12.63 Cisco Systems 79,500 21.66 (37.1)% 24.50 (44.4)% 17.33 (21.4)% 15.08 (9.7)% 13.62 General Electric 78,316 28.00 (73.5)% 29.74 (75.1)% 18.00 (58.8)% 9.38 (21.0)% 7.41 Verizon Communications 74,366 35.45 (26.1)% 34.82 (24.8)% 32.74 (20.0)% 28.81 (9.1)% 26.18 Apple 74,014 165.15 (49.7)% 176.73 (53.0)% 98.21 (15.4)% 91.20 (8.9)% 83.11 Abbott Laboratories 72,092 57.58 (19.0)% 58.88 (20.8)% 51.52 (9.5)% 54.03 (13.7)% 46.65 Pepsico 71,294 65.41 (30.0)% 69.62 (34.2)% 53.01 (13.6)% 51.45 (11.0)% 45.81 Oracle 69,890 21.18 (34.6)% 22.90 (39.5)% 17.39 (20.4)% 16.56 (16.4)% 13.85

High (18.0)% (16.0)% 0.7% (4.9)% Mean (33.9)% (36.1)% (20.3)% (11.0)% Median (32.3)% (35.0)% (20.0)% (9.7)%

Low (73.5)% (75.1)% (58.8)% (21.0)%

Source: Capital IQ as of 09-Mar-2009

Note: Francis not included in High, Mean, Median and Low.

Public Market Perspectives 8


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Healthcare Companies Have Fallen Since the Publication of Barack Obama’s Healthcare Budget Reform

5.9%

(5.6%)

Performance Since The Publication of Barack Obama’s (10.1%) Budget Proposal Entitled “A New Era of Responsibility:

Renewing America’s Promise” on 26-Feb-2009 (11.6%)

Francis Large Pharma¹ S&P 500 Index Large Cap Biotech²

Source: 1 FactSet as of 09-Mar-2009

2 Large Pharma Composite includes: Abbott, AstraZeneca, Bayer, Bristol-Myers Squibb, Eli Lilly, GSK, JNJ, Merck, Novartis, Novo Nordisk, Pfizer, Sanofi-Aventis, Schering-Plough and Wyeth. Large Cap Biotech Composite includes: Amgen, Biogen Idec, Celgene, Genzyme and Gilead.

Public Market Perspectives 9


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Relative P/E Performance History

Francis vs. James, Large Cap Biotech, Large Pharma and S&P 500 Index From 18-Jul-2008 to 09-Mar-2009

2009E P/E 2010E P/E

12-Aug-2008 10-Dec-2008 22-Feb-2009 30x

30x 12-Aug-2008 10-Dec-2008 22-Feb-2009

24.4x

21.3x

20x

20x Multiple Multiple P/E P/E 11.9x

10.5x 11.6x 2010E

10.7x 10.3x 2009E 10x 10x 10.1x 9.1x 8.7x 9.5x 8.5x

0x 0x

18-Jul- 20-Aug- 22-Sep- 25-Oct- 27-Nov- 30-Dec- 01-Feb- 06-Mar-

18-Jul- 20-Aug- 22-Sep- 25-Oct- 27-Nov- 30-Dec- 01-Feb- 06-Mar-

2008 2008 2008 2008 2008 2008 2009 2009 2008 2008 2008 2008 2008 2008 2009 2009

Daily from 18-Jul-2008 to 09-Mar-2009 Daily from 18-Jul-2008 to 09-Mar-2009

Francis James Large Cap Biotech¹ U.S. Large Pharma² Europe Large Pharma³ S&P 500 Index 10x20x30x

Source: FactSet as of 09-Mar-2009

1 Large Cap Biotech Composite includes: Amgen, Biogen Idec, Celgene, Genzyme and Gilead.

2 U.S. Large Pharma Composite includes: Abbott, Bristol-Meyers Squibb, Eli Lilly, Johnson & Johnson, Merck, Pfizer, Schering-Plough and Wyeth.

3 European Large Pharma Composite includes: AstraZeneca, Bayer, GlaxoSmithKline, Merck KGaA, Novartis, Novo Nordisk and Sanofi-Aventis.

Public Market Perspectives 10


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Comparison of Public Trading Multiples

Francis vs. Large Cap Biotech and Large Pharma

2009 P/E (Current)

25.0 x Median = 11.9x Median = 10.1x Median = 9.0x

24.4 x

23.4 x 22.8 x

21.5 x

18.5 x 17.8 x

15.5 x

10.8 x 11.9 x 12.7 x 11.9 x

10.0 x 11.3 x 11.6 x

9.8 x 10.4 x 9.5 x 9.9 x 8.5 x 6.8 x

8.3 x

6.7 x 6.5 x

6.4 x 5.9 x

Francis Francis Francis Francis Francis (1 Amgen Biogen Idec Celgene Genzyme Gilead Abbott Bristol- Eli Lilly Johnson & Merck Pfizer Schering- Wyeth James AstraZeneca Bayer GSK Merck Novartis Novo Sanofi-(Current) ($95) ($89) ($86.5) Day Prior to Myers Johnson Plough KGaA Nordisk Aventis Offer) Squibb

2009 P/E (As of 18-Jul-2008)

Median = 16.7x 30.5 x Median = 11.9x Median = 11.7x

24.2 x

22.7 x 22.1 x

20.9 x 20.9 x 21.5 x

18.1 x

16.7 x 16.4 x

15.8 x 14.3 x

12.8 x 13.4 x

11.8 x 12.4 x 13.5 x 11.9 x

11.4 x 11.2 x 9.3 x 11.5 x 11.5 x

10.4 x

7.2 x 7.9 x

Francis Francis Francis Francis Francis (1 Amgen Biogen Idec Celgene Genzyme Gilead Abbott Bristol- Eli Lilly Johnson & Merck Pfizer Schering- Wyeth James AstraZeneca Bayer GSK Merck Novartis Novo Sanofi-(Current) ($95) ($89) ($86.5) Day Prior to Myers Johnson Plough KGaA Nordisk Aventis Offer) Squibb

Large Cap Biotech U.S. Large Pharma Europe Large Pharma

Source: IBES median estimates as of 09-Mar-2009 and 18-Jul-2008

Public Market Perspectives 11


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Comparison of Public Trading Multiples

Francis vs. Large Cap Biotech and Large Pharma

2009 P/E (Current)

25.0 x Median = 11.9x Median = 10.1x Median = 9.0x

24.4 x

23.4 x 22.8 x

21.5 x

18.5 x 17.8 x

15.5 x

10.8 x 11.9 x 12.7 x 11.9 x

10.0 x 11.3 x 11.6 x

9.8 x 10.4 x 9.5 x 9.9 x 8.5 x 6.8 x

8.3 x

6.7 x 6.5 x

6.4 x 5.9 x

Francis Francis Francis Francis Francis (1 Amgen Biogen Idec Celgene Genzyme Gilead Abbott Bristol- Eli Lilly Johnson & Merck Pfizer Schering- Wyeth James AstraZeneca Bayer GSK Merck Novartis Novo Sanofi-(Current) ($95) ($89) ($86.5) Day Prior to Myers Johnson Plough KGaA Nordisk Aventis Offer) Squibb

2009 P/E (As of 10-Dec-2008 Meeting)

Median = 13.8x Median = 9.5x Median = 10.2x

24.3 x 23.5 x

22.7 x 22.1 x 20.9 x

20.0 x

19.0 x

17.6 x

12.2 x

13.8 x 14.3 x

12.7 x

10.6 x 12.5 x 11.3 x 11.1 x

11.2 x 8.1 x 7.6 x 9.6 x

9.3 x 9.3 x 9.2 x 7.5 x

6.6 x 7.1 x

Francis Francis Francis Francis Francis (1 Amgen Biogen Idec Celgene Genzyme Gilead Abbott Bristol- Eli Lilly Johnson & Merck Pfizer Schering- Wyeth James AstraZeneca Bayer GSK Merck Novartis Novo Sanofi-(Current) ($95) ($89) ($86.5) Day Prior to Myers Johnson Plough KGaA Nordisk Aventis Offer) Squibb

Large Cap Biotech U.S. Large Pharma Europe Large Pharma

Source: IBES median estimates as of 09-Mar-2009 and 05-Dec-2008

Public Market Perspectives 12


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Comparison of Public Trading Multiples

Francis vs. Large Cap Biotech and Large Pharma

2009 P/E (Current)

25.0 x Median = 11.9x Median = 10.1x Median = 9.0x

24.4 x

23.4 x 22.8 x

21.5 x

18.5 x 17.8 x

15.5 x

10.8 x 11.9 x 12.7 x 11.9 x

10.0 x 11.3 x 11.6 x

9.8 x 10.4 x 9.5 x 9.9 x 8.5 x 6.8 x

8.3 x

6.7 x 6.5 x

6.4 x 5.9 x

Francis Francis Francis Francis Francis (1 Amgen Biogen Idec Celgene Genzyme Gilead Abbott Bristol- Eli Lilly Johnson & Merck Pfizer Schering- Wyeth James AstraZeneca Bayer GSK Merck Novartis Novo Sanofi-(Current) ($95) ($89) ($86.5) Day Prior to Myers Johnson Plough KGaA Nordisk Aventis Offer) Squibb

2009 P/E (As of 22-Feb-2009 Meeting)

Median = 15.2x Median = 10.7x Median = 10.2x

25.1 x 23.5 x 25.0 x

22.4 x 22.8 x

21.6 x

20.4 x

17.7 x

15.2 x 14.7 x

12.2 x 12.5 x 11.7 x 12.2 x

12.2 x 10.8 x

10.6 x 8.6 x 10.2 x 10.5 x 10.1 x

9.6 x 7.4 x

8.0 x 7.0 x 6.6 x

Francis Francis Francis Francis Francis (1 Amgen Biogen IdecCelgene Genzyme Gilead Abbott Bristol- Eli Lilly Johnson & Merck Pfizer Schering- Wyeth JamesAstraZeneca Bayer GSK Merck KGaANovartis Novo Sanofi-(Current) ($95) ($89) ($86.5)Day Prior to Myers Johnson Plough Nordisk Aventis Offer) Squibb

Large Cap Biotech U.S. Large Pharma Europe Large Pharma

Source: IBES median estimates as of 09-Mar-2009 and 20-Feb-2009

Public Market Perspectives 13


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Francis Research Analyst Price Targets

($ Per Share)

Price Target Before As of 10-Dec-2008¹ Current Deal Price Date Updated Bank Announcement Presentation Price Target Speculation

09-Mar-2009 Barclays Capital 75 105 97 64-110

09-Mar-2009 Jefferies & Company 78 100 93 93

09-Mar-2009 Morgan Stanley 94 105 97 65-115

09-Mar-2009 Natixis 76 85 97 95-100

06-Mar-2009 Baird 87 100 100 100

06-Mar-2009 Bernstein Research 86 97 92 78-100

06-Mar-2009 BMO Capital Markets 82 104 88 63-100

06-Mar-2009 Citi N/A 96 92 N/A

06-Mar-2009 JP Morgan 100 105 105 105

06-Mar-2009 Oppenheimer 88 105 105 102-110

06-Mar-2009 RBC Capital 84 100 100 95-100

06-Mar-2009 Rodman & Renshaw 90 90 90 95-100

06-Mar-2009 UBS 92 N/A 100 N/A

03-Mar-2009 Deutsche Bank N/A 97 97 97

03-Mar-2009 Lazard 90 98 98 78-105

03-Mar-2009 Piper Jaffray N/A N/A 112 N/A

High $100 $105 $112 $115 Mean 88 99 98 96² Median 88 99 98 98²

Low 76 85 88 63

1 Source: Wall Street research

2 Price targets are latest as of 10-Dec-2008.

Mean and median based on the midpoint of the deal price speculation range.

Public Market Perspectives 14


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Francis Top Institutional Shareholders Composition

As of 31-Jan-2009 % O/S As of 02-Mar-2009 % O/S of Minority

James Holdings 587,189,380 55.76% Hedge Fund / Arb 13.3% Non-James Holding 465,784,657 44.24% Non-Hedge Fund / Arb 86.7% Shares Outstanding 1,052,974,037

Top Shareholders (Sorted by “Current Position”)

Position 18-Jul-2008 Current Current (Based on 30-Jun-2008 Position Current Position Change vs. Change vs. %O/S of %O/S of Rank Institution Name 13F Filings) 13-Feb-2009 20-Feb-2009 30-Jan-2009 18-Jul-2008 Avg. Cost Total Minority

1 Fidelity Mgmt. & Research 41,806,660 55,132,951 53,132,951 (2,000,000) 11,326,291 $66.85 5.05% 11.41%

2 Marsico Capital 27,214,792 25,858,981 25,858,981 0 (1,355,811) 43.59 2.46 5.55

3 AllianceBerstein (AXA) 17,112,145 21,083,000 20,583,000 (500,000) 3,470,855 75.29 1.95 4.42

4 T. Rowe Price 17,256,456 18,632,149 16,632,149 (2,000,000) (624,307) 76.93 1.58 3.57

5 Barclays Global 15,306,210 14,129,037 14,129,037 0 (1,177,173) 54.51 1.34 3.03

6 Capital Research & Mgmt. 15,350,000 10,716,935 10,716,935 0 (4,633,065) 65.05 1.02 2.30

7 Jennison Associates 10,779,817 10,179,817 10,179,817 0 (600,000) 68.79 0.97 2.19

8 Vanguard Group 9,056,406 9,808,157 9,808,157 0 751,751 59.28 0.93 2.11

9 Capital Guardian Trust 19,376,837 11,674,828 7,674,828 (4,000,000) (11,702,009) 78.21 0.73 1.65

10 State Street Global Advisors 6,597,198 7,229,900 7,229,900 0 632,702 49.72 0.69 1.55

11 Wellington Mgmt 15,892,746 6,471,555 6,471,555 0 (9,421,191) 67.45 0.61 1.39

12 ClearBridge Advisors 9,712,089 6,246,738 6,246,738 0 (3,465,351) 33.14 0.59 1.34

13 Delaware Inv. Advisors 9,135,610 5,714,850 5,714,850 0 (3,420,760) 78.18 0.54 1.23

14 TIAA-CREF Asset Mgmt. 7,281,457 5,687,388 5,687,388 0 (1,594,069) 65.24 0.54 1.22

15 Janus Capital Mgmt. 7,796,255 4,722,419 4,722,419 0 (3,073,836) 48.86 0.45 1.01

16 Waddell & Reed 2,382,370 3,911,504 3,911,504 0 1,529,134 85.73 0.37 0.84

17 INTECH Investment Mgmt 432,550 3,016,880 3,616,880 600,000 3,184,330 81.44 0.34 0.78

18 Adage Capital Advisors 0 3,606,221 3,606,221 0 3,606,221 86.26 0.34 0.77

19 GE Asset Management 3,788,047 3,501,946 3,501,946 0 (286,101) 76.95 0.33 0.75

20 Franklin Advisors 2,965,748 3,458,615 3,458,615 0 492,867 59.21 0.33 0.74

21 Paulson & Co. 0 3,424,400 3,424,400 0 3,424,400 88.93 0.33 0.74

22 PRIMECAP Management 2,949,486 3,333,186 3,333,186 0 383,700 73.73 0.32 0.72

23 TCW Asset Mgmt. 4,703,902 3,222,631 3,222,631 0 (1,481,271) 39.65 0.31 0.69

24 Walter Scott & Partners 4,070,591 3,214,865 3,214,865 0 (855,726) 69.76 0.31 0.69

25 Orbimed Advisors 2,716,480 3,065,600 3,065,600 0 349,120 53.54 0.29 0.66 Top 25 Institutional Shareholders 253,683,852 247,044,553 239,144,553 (7,900,000) (14,539,299) $65.85 22.71% 51.34%

Source: Bloom Partners

Note: Capital Research Global and Capital World Investors have been combined. Walter Scott & Partners is Scotland-based investment firm. As received by Francis on 06-Mar-2009.

Public Market Perspectives 15


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III. Financial Analysis


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Financial Analysis Overview

Summary

($ Per Share)

Methodology Equity Value Per Diluted Share Comments

Current Offer Price $95.00

52-Week High: $99.05

52-Week Trading Range $67 $99

52-Week Low: $66.80

Wall Street Equity Research Wall Street High Target Price: $112.00 Target Prices $88 $112 Wall Street Low Target Price: $88.00

Forward earnings multiple of 14 – 22x on 2009E EPS

Selected Public Trading Multiples (2009E P/E) –

$53 $85 Management base case 2009E EPS of $3.88 Management and IBES EPS Estimates

IBES median 2009E EPS of $3.80

Forward earnings multiple of 14 – 22x on EPS

Present Value of Future Stock Price – P/E – $58 $104

9.0% cost of equity Management Base Case

Management base case 2010E and 2011E EPS of $4.49 and $5.62

Forward earnings multiple of 14 – 22x on EPS

Present Value of Future Stock Price – P/E – $59 $109

9.0% cost of equity C-08 Upside Case

Management base case 2010E and 2011E EPS of $4.59 and $5.88

Forward earnings multiple of 14 – 22x on EPS

Present Value of Future Stock Price – P/E – $56 $96

9.0% cost of equity C-08 Downside Case

Management base case 2010E and 2011E EPS of $4.32 and $5.20

Forward earnings multiple of 14 – 22x on EPS

Present Value of Future Stock Price – P/E – $56 $92

9.0% cost of equity IBES

IBES median 2010E and 2011E EPS of $4.35 and $4.99 Discounted Cash Flow – Management Base Case (2024) – $100 $151 Financial Sensitivities 2 – 4% perpetuity growth rate

8 – 10% discount rate

Discounted Cash Flow – Management Base Case (2018) – $93 $145 Includes management estimates of 2015 opt-in and ESO expense Financial Sensitivities

Discounted Cash Flow – Management Base Case (2024) – $81 $141 3% perpetuity growth rate; 9% discount rate

Operating Sensitivities Total revenue CAGR of 4% to 8%; EBIT margin sensitivity of -9% to

$87 $127 +3% off of 2024 management base case margins Discounted Cash Flow – Management Base Case (2018) – Operating Sensitivities C-08 Upside Case (2024) $105 $159

C-08 trial success

Increased PTS assumptions for adjuvant breast and adjuvant lung indications in development to 70% C-08 Upside Case (2018) $101 $160

C-08 Downside Case (2024) $91 $137

C-08 trial failure

Decreased PTS assumptions for adjuvant breast and adjuvant lung C-08 Downside Case (2018) $78 $117 indications in development to 10%

$50.00 $70.00 $90.00 $110.00 $130.00 $150.00 $170.00

Source: Francis management projections, Wall Street research and FactSet as of 09-Mar-2009

Financial Analysis 17


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A. Discounted Cash Flow Analysis


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Key Assumptions of the 2008 Francis Financial Plan

Near-term

Avastin adjuvant CRC trial (C-08)

— Base case: 61% PTS in Q2 2009

Price / reimbursement impacts

— Base case assumes 3% annual price increases excluding Avastin and Lucentis

— Avastin price increase contingent upon breast trial outcome

2015 James commercial agreement expiration

— Assumes status quo type of terms

— Management expects more favorable market terms than current (modeled separately)

Tax rate assumptions

— Base case assumes off-shore manufacturing tax benefits trend tax-rate to approximately 29%

FOB Assumptions

— Assumptions factor in number of entrants, physician acceptance and price discounts by product

Unnamed product PTS and market opportunity

— Assumes large and small molecule NMEs

— Launch to filing PTS of 20% and 11%, respectively

— Market opportunity of $1bn per NME indication (including two line extensions)

Long-term

Source: Francis management

Discounted Cash Flow Analysis 19


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Product Sales Breakdown in the Francis 2008 Financial Plan

($ in millions)

Avastin Rituxan Herceptin Lucentis Other Marketed Named Product Pipeline Unnamed Pipeline Non-Product

$40,000

$33,803 $31,551 $35,000 $28,732 $26,230 262 $24,995 313 $24,279 $30,000 $23,408 365 $20,764 $19,004 393 $18,061 $25,000 433 $17,349 436 $16,083 429 19,968 16,656 $14,860 2,702 4,956 13,477 418 7,624 $13,690 10,479 $20,000 395 1,246 $12,345 260 126 357 566 3,548

27 331 2,575 $11,244 25 128 973 1,678

449 4,337 $15,000 157 56 224

22 3,852 3,932 3,869 3,865 4,015 3,974 4,877

3 3,131 5,083

85 3,780

5,296 5,343 3,581 1,594 1,741 1,880 2,005 2,112

- 1,438 5,314 3,146 1,702 3,057 $10,000 2,782 1,370 1,748 1,740 1,796 1,311 1,755 1,867 1,948 1,849 3,019 1,126 1,711 1,162 966 1,663 2,649 2,242 1,722 1,337 1,176 3,004 2,979 1,585 2,759 1,085 1,556 2,261 1,470 2,725 932 1,024 872 849 2,635 1,343 831 $5,000 2,575 2,664 1,240 1,184 970 1,139 7,302 7,519 923 895 872 6,521 6,880 7,103 6,783 5,036 5,900 5,262 3,736 4,303 4,011 3,556 3,378 3,332 3,156 $0

2009E 2010E 2011E 2012E 2013E 2014E 2015E 2016E 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E 2021E 2022E 2023E 2024E

Source: Francis 2008 Financial Plan as provided by management 16-Nov-2008

Discounted Cash Flow Analysis 20


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Discounted Cash Flow Analysis of Francis

Key Assumptions

Discounted Cash Flow analysis provides a framework to evaluate the ongoing performance of the business, but should be considered in a broader context of approaches (e.g., comparable transaction and trading multiples)

Projections from 2009 to 2024 provided by Francis management as of 16-Nov-2008 and provided to James and Greenhill

— Business updates to the forecast were provided by management on 09-Mar-2009 and are summarized on page 30 and included as incremental amounts to the DCF analysis

Assumes 1,054mm basic shares outstanding, as of 06-Mar-2009

— Current options outstanding included in share count by the treasury stock method; options schedule provided by Francis management as of 06-Mar-2009

Financial Sensitivity Analysis:

— Discount rates evaluated using a range of 8.0%—10.0% based on WACC analysis

— Terminal value evaluated using perpetuity growth rate method using a range of 2.0%—4.0%

Implied P/E terminal multiple also evaluated

Operating sensitivities flex EBIT margin by trending to -9% to +3% through 2024 in a linear incremental fashion over the forecasted period and flex revenue between incremental CAGR of -3% to +1% applied in a linear incremental fashion over the forecasted period through 2024

Assumes 31-Mar-2009 estimated net cash of $7.7 billion based on Francis management cash flow projections

Assumes capital expenditures and depreciation are offsetting in the terminal year

Assumes an adjusted tax rate applied to operating income that trends from ~36% in 2009 to ~27% in 2024 terminal year, and ~36% in 2009 to ~28% in 2018, per management forecast and additional 2% benefit from California tax law changes starting in 2011

Assumes cash flows discounted back to 31-Mar-2009 using mid-year convention

Analysis includes impact of:

— Future employee stock options expense: Assumes $328mm in after-tax ESO expense in 2009 with a 3.0% inflation rate and a range of 2.0%—4.0% of growth in headcount into perpetuity

— Changes to James / Francis marketing agreement post 2015 per management guidance on expected market rate terms: NPV of incremental 2015 opt-in derived from discounting projected product royalties from large and small molecules in the unnamed pipeline beginning in 2016, with a range of 2.0%—4.0% perpetuity growth rate

Discounted Cash Flow Analysis 21


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Summary of 2008 Francis Financial Plan

2009E – 2015E

($ in millions, except per share data)

2009E—2012E 2009E—2015E 2009E 2010E 2011E 2012E 2013E 2014E 2015E CAGR CAGR

Revenues:

Avastin Base Case $3,378 $3,736 $4,303 $5,036 $5,900 $6,521 $6,880 14.2% 12.6% Rituxan 2,575 2,664 2,635 2,725 2,759 2,649 2,242 1.9% (2.3)% Herceptin 1,470 1,585 1,663 1,711 1,755 1,748 1,740 5.2% 2.9% Lucentis 966 1,126 1,311 1,370 1,438 1,594 1,741 12.3% 10.3% Other Named Products and Pipeline 2,782 3,149 3,603 3,836 3,980 4,381 4,841 11.3% 9.7% Unnamed Base Case — — — 25 27 126 260 Non-Product 73 85 175 157 224 331 357 Product Sales $11,244 $12,345 $13,690 $14,860 $16,083 $17,349 $18,061 Royalties 2,501 2,465 2,617 2,681 2,723 2,809 2,551 Contract & Other 373 289 342 497 563 660 805

Total Revenue $14,118 $15,099 $16,648 $18,038 $19,370 $20,817 $21,418 8.5% 7.2% Cost and Expenses:

Cost of Sales $1,541 $1,794 $1,872 $1,760 $1,784 $1,947 $1,969 R&D 2,824 3,020 3,330 3,608 3,874 4,163 4,284 MSG&A 2,233 2,183 2,321 2,432 2,495 2,692 2,828 Profit Sharing 1,352 1,544 1,664 1,688 1,581 1,654 1,645

Total Cost & Exp. $7,950 $8,541 $9,187 $9,488 $9,734 $10,456 $10,726

Operating Income $6,169 $6,558 $7,461 $8,550 $9,636 $10,361 $10,692 11.5% 9.6% EBITDA $6,676 $7,144 $8,021 $9,125 $10,213 $10,946 $11,285 11.0% 9.1% Other Income, Net 147 240 382 499 496 531 647

Earnings (Pre-Tax) $6,316 $6,799 $7,843 $9,049 $10,132 $10,892 $11,339 12.7% 10.2% Taxes 2,275 2,311 2,457 2,739 3,027 3,244 3,370

Net Income $4,041 $4,487 $5,386 $6,310 $7,105 $7,648 $7,969 16.0% 12.0% WASO 1,051 1,013 969 933 893 860 846

EPS $3.85 $4.43 $5.56 $6.76 $7.96 $8.90 $9.42 20.7% 16.1% Growth and Margins Analysis

Revenue Growth—6.9 % 10.3 % 8.3 % 7.4 % 7.5 % 2.9 % R&D as % of Revenue 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 MSG&A as % of Revenue 15.8 14.5 13.9 13.5 12.9 12.9 13.2 EBIT Margin 43.7 43.4 44.8 47.4 49.7 49.8 49.9 EBITDA Margin 47.3 47.3 48.2 50.6 52.7 52.6 52.7 EPS Growth—15.2 25.4 21.7 17.7 11.8 5.8

Selected Balance Sheet Metrics

Cash & Equivalents ¹ $10,716 $8,527 $9,912 $10,624 $11,353 $14,078 $19,818 Total Debt 2,268 1,755 1,741 1,724 1,705 1,683 658

Selected Cash Flow Metrics

Depreciation $507 $586 $559 $575 $577 $585 $594 Capital Expenditures (546) (560) (620) (600) (554) (545) (593)

(Increase) / Decrease in Working Capital (50) (371) 125 (68) (122) (132) (58)

1 Source: Company management projections as of 16-Nov-2008 Includes short-term investments and long-term marketable securities

Discounted Cash Flow Analysis 22


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Francis 2008 Financial Plan Cash Flow Analysis

($ in millions)

‘09E—‘15E ‘15E—‘24E ‘09E—‘24E 2009E 2010E 2011E 2012E 2013E 2014E 2015E 2016E 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E 2021E 2022E 2023E 2024E CAGR CAGR CAGR $13,206 $14,118 $15,099 $16,648 $18,038 $19,370 $20,817 $21,418 $22,273 $24,171 $26,897 $27,542 $28,398 $29,883 $32,825 $36,099 $38,764 Revenue $13,206 $14,118 $15,099 $16,648 $18,038 $19,370 $20,817 $21,418 $22,273 $24,171 $26,897 $27,542 $28,398 $29,883 $32,825 $36,099 $38,764 7.2% 6.8% 7.0%

Operating Income $6,169 $6,558 $7,461 $8,550 $9,636 $10,361 $10,692 $11,173 $12,414 $14,148 $14,450 $14,217 $14,609 $16,182 $17,970 $19,604 9.6% 7.0% 8.0% Taxes (2,219) (2,220) (2,311) (2,548) (2,838) (3,041) (3,121) (3,252) (3,662) (4,223) (4,116) (4,095) (4,203) (4,756) (5,269) (5,732)

Unlevered Net Income $3,950 $4,339 $5,150 $6,002 $6,798 $7,320 $7,570 $7,920 $8,752 $9,925 $10,334 $10,122 $10,406 $11,426 $12,701 $13,872 11.5% 7.0% 8.7%

Depreciation $507 $586 $559 $575 $577 $585 $594 $593 $594 $606 $613 $638 $625 $622 $635 $661 CapEx (546) (560) (620) (600) (554) (545) (593) (647) (640) (716) (688) (722) (782) (808) (833) (820) (Increase) / Decrease (50) (371) 125 (68) (122) (132) (58) (91) (222) (228) (126) 7 (197) (231) (397) (746) in Working Capital

Unlevered Free Cash Flow $3,861 $3,994 $5,214 $5,909 $6,699 $7,228 $7,513 $7,776 $8,483 $9,588 $10,133 $10,044 $10,052 $11,010 $12,105 $12,968 11.7% 6.3% 8.4% EBITDA $6,676 $7,144 $8,021 $9,125 $10,213 $10,946 $11,285 $11,766 $13,007 $14,754 $15,063 $14,855 $15,234 $16,804 $18,605 $20,266 9.1% 6.7% 7.7% YoY Revenue Growth 0.0% 6.9% 10.3% 8.3% 7.4% 7.5% 2.9% 4.0% 8.5% 11.3% 2.4% 3.1% 5.2% 9.8% 10.0% 7.4% EBIT Margin 43.7% 43.4% 44.8% 47.4% 49.7% 49.8% 49.9% 50.2% 51.4% 52.6% 52.5% 50.1% 48.9% 49.3% 49.8% 50.6%


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Discounted Cash Flow Analysis of Francis

Financial Sensitivities 2024 Terminal Year

Enterprise Value Equity Value Per Share

Perpetuity Growth Rate Perpetuity Growth Rate

# ##### 2.0 % 2.5 % 3.0 % 3.5 % 4.0 % $ 121.9 2.0 % 2.5 % 3.0 % 3.5 % 4.0 %

10.0 % $100,800 $103,002 $105,441 $108,136 $111,085 10.0 % $100.25 $102.19 $104.35 $106.74 $109.34 Rate 9.5 % 108,978 111,650 114,613 117,875 121,390 Rate 9.5 % 107.48 109.84 112.47 115.35 118.46 Discount 9.0 % 118,387 121,642 125,243 129,159 133,200 Discount 9.0 % 115.80 118.68 121.87 125.33 128.91 8.5 % 129,290 133,262 137,613 142,175 146,286 8.5 % 125.45 128.96 132.81 136.84 140.48

8.0 % 142,015 146,842 151,972 156,774 158,643 8.0 % 136.70 140.97 145.51 149.76 151.41

% of Enterprise Value in Terminal Value Implied 2024 P/E1

Perpetuity Growth Rate Perpetuity Growth Rate $ 49.4 2.0 % 2.5 % 3.0 % 3.5 % 4.0 % $ 14.6 2.0 % 2.5 % 3.0 % 3.5 % 4.0 %

10.0 % 39.7 % 41.6 % 43.8 % 46.2 % 48.9 % 10.0 % 10.9 x 11.7 x 12.6 x 13.6 x 14.8 x Rate 9.5 % 42.0 44.1 46.5 49.2 52.4 Rate 9.5 % 11.6 12.5 13.5 14.7 16.1 Discount 9.0 % 44.4 46.7 49.4 52.5 56.3 Discount 9.0 % 12.4 13.4 14.6 16.0 17.7 8.5 % 46.9 49.6 52.6 56.3 61.1 8.5 % 13.3 14.5 15.9 17.5 19.6

8.0 % 49.7 52.7 56.2 60.9 68.0 8.0 % 14.4 15.8 17.4 19.4 22.0

Source: Financial projections per Francis management as of 16-Nov-2008

Note: Includes capitalized ESO expense and NPV of incremental 2015 Opt-in. Assumes 1,054mm basic shares outstanding, as of 06-Mar-2009. Fully diluted shares outstanding calculated using treasury stock method based on options schedule provided by Francis management. Assumes net cash of $7.7 billion and cash flows discounted to 31-Mar-2009 using mid-year convention. Includes additional 1 business updates since 22-Feb-2009 provided by management on 09-Mar-2009. Additional 2% tax benefit starting in 2011 due to California tax law change. $ in mm, except per share amounts.

P/E as implied by net income per Francis management projections

Discounted Cash Flow Analysis 24


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Discounted Cash Flow Analysis of Francis

Financial Sensitivities 2018 Terminal Year

Enterprise Value Equity Value Per Share

Perpetuity Growth Rate Perpetuity Growth Rate

# ##### 2.0 % 2.5 % 3.0 % 3.5 % 4.0 % $ 114.7 2.0 % 2.5 % 3.0 % 3.5 % 4.0 %

10.0 % $92,838 $95,916 $99,355 $103,203 $107,499 10.0 % $93.20 $95.93 $98.97 $102.37 $106.17 Rate 9.5 % 99,962 103,578 107,630 112,163 117,179 Rate 9.5 % 99.51 102.70 106.29 110.30 114.73 Discount 9.0 % 108,128 112,397 117,181 122,495 128,214 Discount 9.0 % 106.73 110.50 114.74 119.44 124.50 8.5 % 117,553 122,607 128,237 134,334 140,321 8.5 % 115.07 119.54 124.52 129.91 135.21

8.0 % 128,502 134,472 140,975 147,453 151,419 8.0 % 124.75 130.03 135.78 141.51 145.02

% of Enterprise Value in Terminal Value Implied 2018 P/E1

Perpetuity Growth Rate Perpetuity Growth Rate $ 65.2 2.0 % 2.5 % 3.0 % 3.5 % 4.0 % $ 16.3 2.0 % 2.5 % 3.0 % 3.5 % 4.0 %

10.0 % 56.2 % 58.3 % 60.6 % 63.1 % 66.0 % 10.0 % 12.1 x 13.0 x 14.0 x 15.2 x 16.5 x Rate 9.5 % 58.1 60.3 62.8 65.6 68.9 Rate 9.5 % 12.9 13.9 15.1 16.4 18.0 Discount 9.0 % 60.0 62.5 65.2 68.4 72.2 Discount 9.0 % 13.8 14.9 16.3 17.8 19.7 8.5 % 62.0 64.7 67.8 71.6 76.5 8.5 % 14.8 16.2 17.7 19.6 21.9

8.0 % 64.1 67.2 70.8 75.6 83.2 8.0 % 16.0 17.6 19.4 21.7 24.5

Source: Financial projections per Francis management as of 16-Nov-2008

Note: Includes capitalized ESO expense and NPV of incremental 2015 Opt-in. Assumes 1,054mm basic shares outstanding, as of 06-Mar-2009. Fully diluted shares outstanding calculated using treasury stock method based on options schedule provided by Francis management. Assumes net cash of $7.7 billion and cash flows discounted to 31-Mar-2009 using mid-year convention. Includes additional 1 business updates since 22-Feb-2009 provided by management on 09-Mar-2009. Additional 2% tax benefit starting in 2011 due to California tax law change. $ in mm, except per share amounts.

P/E as implied by net income per Francis management projections

Discounted Cash Flow Analysis 25


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Discounted Cash Flow Analysis of Francis

Operating Sensitivities 2024 Terminal Year

Equity Value Per Share

2009E to 2024E Incremental Revenue CAGR Implied 2024E EBIT Margin $ 121.9 (3.0)% (2.0)% (1.0)% 0.0 % 1.0 % $ 121.9 41.6 % 44.6 % 47.6 % 50.6 % 53.6 %

10.0 % $80.01 $86.99 $95.04 $104.35 $115.14 10.0 % $91.49 $95.78 $100.07 $104.35 $108.64 Rate 9.5 % 85.49 93.17 102.11 112.47 124.46 Rate 9.5 % 98.18 102.94 107.70 112.47 117.23 Discount 9.0 % 91.70 100.29 110.29 121.87 135.28 Discount 9.0 % 105.90 111.22 116.54 121.87 127.19 8.5 % 98.80 108.48 119.75 132.81 147.93 8.5 % 114.81 120.81 126.81 132.81 138.81

8.0 % 106.84 117.84 130.66 145.51 162.71 8.0 % 125.05 131.87 138.69 145.51 152.33

2009E to 2024E Incremental Revenue CAGR (3.0)% (2.0)% (1.0)% 0.0 % 1.0 % Margin 41.6 % $80.76 $87.96 $96.27 $105.90 $117.04 EBIT 44.6 % 84.43 92.07 100.94 111.22 123.12 2024E 47.6 % 88.07 96.18 105.61 116.54 129.20 Implied 50.6 % 91.70 100.29 110.29 121.87 135.28 53.6 % 95.32 104.39 114.96 127.19 141.37

Source: Financial projections per Francis management as of 16-Nov-2008

Note: Assumes 3.0% perpetuity growth rate and 9.0% discount rate, unless otherwise noted. Includes capitalized ESO expense and NPV of incremental 2015 Opt-in. Assumes 1,054mm basic shares outstanding, as of 06-Mar-2009. Fully diluted shares outstanding calculated using treasury stock method based on options schedule provided by Francis management. Assumes net cash of $7.7 billion and cash flows discounted to 31-Mar-2009 using mid-year convention. Includes additional business updates since 22-Feb-2009 provided by management on 09-Mar-2009 including additional 2% tax benefit starting in 2011 due to California tax law change. Assumes trending toward the percentage of terminal year EBIT margin in a linear incremental fashion over the forecasted period. Revenue growth implied by incremental CAGR applied in a linear incremental fashion over the forecasted period.

Discounted Cash Flow Analysis 26


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Discounted Cash Flow Analysis of Francis

Operating Sensitivities 2018 Terminal Year

Equity Value Per Share

2009E to 2024E Incremental Revenue CAGR Implied 2024E EBIT Margin $ 114.7 (3.0)% (2.0)% (1.0)% 0.0 % 1.0 % $ 114.7 41.6 % 44.6 % 47.6 % 50.6 % 53.6 %

10.0 % $82.75 $87.39 $92.76 $98.97 $106.16 10.0 % $90.73 $93.48 $96.22 $98.97 $101.71 Rate 9.5 % 88.52 93.58 99.47 106.29 114.19 Rate 9.5 % 97.26 100.27 103.28 106.29 109.30 Discount 9.0 % 95.11 100.70 107.20 114.74 123.46 Discount 9.0 % 104.78 108.10 111.42 114.74 118.06 8.5 % 102.67 108.89 116.13 124.52 134.23 8.5 % 113.45 117.14 120.83 124.52 128.20

8.0 % 111.27 118.24 126.37 135.78 146.69 8.0 % 123.39 127.52 131.65 135.78 139.91

2009E to 2024E Incremental Revenue CAGR (3.0)% (2.0)% (1.0)% 0.0 % 1.0 % Margin 41.6 % $87.23 $92.22 $98.04 $104.78 $112.58 EBIT 44.6 % 89.86 95.05 101.10 108.10 116.21 2024E 47.6 % 92.48 97.87 104.15 111.42 119.84 Implied 50.6 % 95.11 100.70 107.20 114.74 123.46 53.6 % 97.74 103.52 110.25 118.06 127.09

Source: Financial projections per Francis management as of 16-Nov-2008

Note: Assumes 3.0% perpetuity growth rate and 9.0% discount rate, unless otherwise noted. Includes capitalized ESO expense and NPV of incremental 2015 Opt-in. Assumes 1,054mm basic shares outstanding, as of 06-Mar-2009. Fully diluted shares outstanding calculated using treasury stock method based on options schedule provided by Francis management. Assumes net cash of $7.7 billion and cash flows discounted to 31-Mar-2009 using mid-year convention. Includes additional business updates since 22-Feb-2009 provided by management on 09-Mar-2009 including additional 2% tax benefit starting in 2011 due to California tax law change. Assumes trending toward the percentage of terminal year EBIT margin in a linear incremental fashion over the forecasted period. EBIT margins in terminal year of 2018 are 47.0%, 48.8%, 50.7%, 52.6% and 54.5% for implied changes to 2024 EBIT margin of -9.0%, -6.0%, -3.0%, 0.0%, and 3.0%, respectively. Revenue growth implied by incremental CAGR applied in a linear incremental fashion over the forecasted period.

Discounted Cash Flow Analysis 27


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Avastin C-08 Assumptions

Base Case, C-08 Upside Case and C-08 Downside Case ($ in millions)

Base Case:

— 61% for PTS for adjuvant colon cancer trial (C-08) in Q2 2009

— Most important additional Avastin indications of adjuvant breast (50% PTS) and adjuvant lung cancer (55% PTS)

— Implies overall adjusted Avastin revenues trend to ~65% of unadjusted Avastin revenues in 2015+ timeframe

— 3.0% annual price increase beginning in 2016, contingent upon breast trial outcome

C-08 Upside Case:

— Positive C-08 results by Q2 2009 resulting in ~18% higher revenue than base case for Avastin overall in 2017E

— Increased PTS assumptions for adjuvant breast and adjuvant lung indications in development to 70%

C-08 Downside Case:

— Negative C-08 results by Q2 2009 resulting in ~33% lower revenue than base case for Avastin overall in 2017E

— Removes adjuvant CRC revenue from base case

— Decreased PTS assumptions for adjuvant breast and adjuvant lung indications in development to 10%

Avastin PTS Adjusted Total Revenue: 2009E – 2024E

Cumulative Total % Above / (Below) Base Base Case Upside Case Downside Case Revenue Case $15,000 Base Case $95,813—Upside Case $110,444 15.3% $12,000 Downside Case $67,911 (29.1)%

$9,000 $6,000 $3,000

$0

2009E 2010E 2011E 2012E 2013E 2014E 2015E 2016E 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E 2021E 2022E 2023E 2024E

Source: Francis management projections

Discounted Cash Flow Analysis 28


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Avastin Case Discounted Cash Flow Analysis

Base Case, C-08 Upside Case and C-08 Downside Case Equity Value Per Share

2024 Terminal Year

C-08 Downside Case Base Case C-08 Upside Case

Perpetuity Growth Rate Perpetuity Growth Rate Perpetuity Growth Rate $ 110.4 2.0 % 2.5 % 3.0 % 3.5 % 4.0 % $ 121.9 2.0 % 2.5 % 3.0 % 3.5 % 4.0 % $ 127.7 2.0 % 2.5 % 3.0 % 3.5 % 4.0 %

10.0 % $90.53 $92.33 $94.31 $96.49 $98.87 10.0 % $100.25 $102.19 $104.35 $106.74 $109.34 10.0 % $105.27 $107.29 $109.52 $112.00 $114.71 Rate 9.5 % 97.20 99.38 101.78 104.41 107.23 Rate 9.5 % 107.48 109.84 112.47 115.35 118.46 Rate 9.5 % 112.78 115.23 117.95 120.95 124.19 Discount 9.0 % 104.88 107.53 110.45 113.59 116.78 Discount 9.0 % 115.80 118.68 121.87 125.33 128.91 Discount 9.0 % 121.41 124.40 127.70 131.31 135.06 8.5 % 113.80 117.02 120.53 124.16 127.30 8.5 % 125.45 128.96 132.81 136.84 140.48 8.5 % 131.41 135.05 139.05 143.27 147.13

8.0 % 124.22 128.13 132.23 135.95 136.94 8.0 % 136.70 140.97 145.51 149.76 151.41 8.0 % 143.06 147.49 152.23 156.71 158.67

2018 Terminal Year

C-08 Downside Case Base Case C-08 Upside Case

Perpetuity Growth Rate Perpetuity Growth Rate Perpetuity Growth Rate $ 95.5 2.0 % 2.5 % 3.0 % 3.5 % 4.0 % $ 114.7 2.0 % 2.5 % 3.0 % 3.5 % 4.0 % $ 124.8 2.0 % 2.5 % 3.0 % 3.5 % 4.0 %

10.0 % $78.39 $80.51 $82.84 $85.41 $88.22 10.0 % $93.20 $95.93 $98.97 $102.37 $106.17 10.0 % $100.97 $104.02 $107.45 $111.30 $115.61 Rate 9.5 % 83.61 86.06 88.75 91.72 94.93 Rate 9.5 % 99.51 102.70 106.29 110.30 114.73 Rate 9.5 % 107.88 111.47 115.52 120.06 125.13 Discount 9.0 % 89.51 92.36 95.51 98.93 102.45 Discount 9.0 % 106.73 110.50 114.74 119.44 124.50 Discount 9.0 % 115.80 120.05 124.84 130.20 136.04 8.5 % 96.29 99.63 103.28 107.08 110.43 8.5 % 115.07 119.54 124.52 129.91 135.21 8.5 % 124.94 129.99 135.66 141.87 148.17

8.0 % 104.14 108.04 112.14 115.84 116.82 8.0 % 124.75 130.03 135.78 141.51 145.02 8.0 % 135.58 141.57 148.17 154.94 159.75

Source: Financial projections and scenarios per Francis management as of 16-Nov-2008

Note: Includes capitalized ESO expense and “marked to market” 2015 opt-in value. Assumes 1,054mm basic shares outstanding, as of 06-Mar-2009. Fully diluted shares outstanding calculated using treasury stock method based on options schedule provided by Francis management. Assumes net cash of $7.7 billion and cash flows discounted to 31-Mar-2009

Discounted Cash Flow Analysis 29


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Recent Changes That Impact Financial Outlook

Update Provided by Francis Management on 09-Mar-2009

The following developments impact certain assumptions underlying the projections originally presented on 16-Nov-2008

— Change in California tax law resulting in lower effective tax rate for Francis beginning in 2011

Illustrative impact shown separately on next page

— Positive outcome of IMAGE trial supports higher sales for Rituxan and 2H7 based on revised assumptions for dose, pricing and market penetration

Estimated impact is increase of approximately $80mm to $150mm in annual FCF from 2011 to 2014 and approximately $200mm to $250mm per year thereafter through 2024

— Favorable developments involving patent application for Rituxan support a revised assumption for timing of the loss of patent protection to Sep-2016 from Apr-2015

Estimated impact is increase of approximately $250mm to $350mm in annual FCF from 2015 to 2017 with $50mm declining steadily each year thereafter

— Favorable Cabilly re-exam outcome led to an increase in estimated probability of receiving future royalties from licensees

Estimated impact is increase of approximately $50mm to $100mm in annual FCF from 2010 to 2018

— Adjustment for lower cash flows from contract revenue

Estimated impact is a decrease of approximately $25mm to $175mm in annual FCF from 2011 to 2024 with larger decreases thereafter

— Unforeseen delays of planned INDs in 2009 and 2010 for NMEs arising from Francis’ antibody drug conjugate platform

Estimated impact is a net increase in aggregate FCF of approximately $100mm from 2009 to 2017 followed by decreases of approximately $100mm to $275mm in annual FCF from 2018 to 2024. Annual decreases in FCF get smaller after 2024 and ultimately reverse as delayed NMEs reach peak sales

— Additional Raptiva PML cases led to lower sales assumptions for existing indications and termination of future development of Raptiva in transplant indications

Estimated impact on FCF is nominal in aggregate through 2015 (small after tax margin on lower sales offset by avoided development costs) followed by decreases of approximately $25mm to $125mm in annual FCF from 2016 to 2024. Annual decreases in FCF get smaller after 2024

Cumulative impact of all changes except California tax law re-exam on FCF (using midpoint of management’s ranges) and the illustrative present value at discount rates of 8% to 10%

Terminal Cumulative Development ($ mm) 2009E 2010E 2011E 2012E 2013E 2014E 2015E 2016E 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E 2021E 2022E 2023E 2024E Value FCF (‘09 -’24) Increases

IMAGE—- $115 $115 $115 $115 $225 $225 $225 $225 $225 $225 $225 $225 $225 $225—$2,710 Rituxan Patent———— 300 300 300 250 200 150 100 50—— 1,650 Cabilly Re-Exam—75 75 75 75 75 75 75 75 75—————675

Decreases

Contract Revenue—- (100) (100) (100) (100) (100) (100) (100) (100) (100) (100) (100) (100) (100) (100) (1,667) (1,400) Delays of Planned INDs 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 (188) (188) (188) (188) (188) (188) (188)—(1,213) Raptiva in Transplant—————(75) (75) (75) (75) (75) (75) (75) (75) (75)—(0,675) Total $11 $86 $101 $101 $101 $101 $511 $436 $436 $188 $63 $13 ($38) ($88) ($138) ($138) ($1,667) $1,748

Discount Rate

1 8.0% 8.5% 9.0% 9.5% 10.0%

Present Value ($ bn) 1 $0.6 $0.6 $0.7 $0.7 $0.7

Note: Discounted to 31-Mar-2009 using mid-year convention; terminal value for the impact of the downward revision of FCF from contract revenue uses a 3% perpetuity growth rate.

Discounted Cash Flow Analysis 30


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Discounted Cash Flow Analysis 31

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Illustrative Impact of Recent California Tax Law Changes

($ Per Share)

Recent favorable change to California tax law changes will lower Francis’ effective tax rate by approximately 2% starting in

2011 (per management estimates)

— The upside resulting from the change in California tax law was not forecasted in management projections provided on

16-Nov-2008

Analysis below demonstrates incremental impact of 2.0% lower effective tax rate for each year starting in 2011

2024 Terminal Year 2018 Terminal Year

# ##### 2.0 % 2.5 % 3.0 % 3.5 % 4.0 %

10.0 % $2.39 $2.46 $2.55 $2.65 $2.76

9.5 % 2.59 2.68 2.79 2.91 3.05

9.0 % 2.82 2.93 3.06 3.22 3.40

8.5 % 3.09 3.23 3.39 3.59 3.83

8.0 % 3.41 3.58 3.79 4.05 4.37

Discount Rate

Perpetuity Growth Rate

# ##### 2.0 % 2.5 % 3.0 % 3.5 % 4.0 %

10.0 % $2.17 $2.27 $2.37 $2.50 $2.65

9.5 % 2.34 2.45 2.58 2.74 2.92

9.0 % 2.54 2.67 2.83 3.02 3.24

8.5 % 2.77 2.93 3.12 3.35 3.64

8.0 % 3.03 3.23 3.47 3.77 4.14

Discount Rate

Perpetuity Growth Rate

Note: Assumes 1,054mm basic shares outstanding as of 06-Mar-2009. Fully diluted shares outstanding calculated using treasury stock method based on options schedule provided by Francis

management.


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Discounted Cash Flow Analysis 32

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2015 Opt-In Assumptions

Key Assumptions

Management forecast assumes current James / Francis royalty arrangement remains in place post 2015 with ~15% royalty rate

Incremental value assumes a market royalty rate of 20% to 30% less the existing 15% royalty rate assumed in the management forecast

$500M peak for lead indication and $250M peak sales for each line extension

— Ex-U.S. sales equal to 100% of U.S. sales

35% marginal tax rate applied to post-2015 royalty revenues

NMEs per year from 2015-2025 consistent with the management base case

NMEs post 2025 held constant at 13 NMEs per year

— Sensitivity analysis varies the 13 management base case NMEs per year +/- 2 NMEs per year

Revenues projected to 2060 (beginning in 2022) and discounted to 31-Mar-2009 using mid-year convention

— Discount rate of 8.0 to 10.0%

Incremental Value Per Share Incremental Value Per Share

20% 23% 25% 28% 30%

10.0 % $2.73 $4.09 $5.46 $6.82 $8.19

9.5 % 3.22 4.84 6.45 8.06 9.67

9.0 % 3.84 5.75 7.67 9.59 11.51

8.5 % 4.60 6.90 9.20 11.50 13.80

8.0 % 5.57 8.35 11.14 13.92 16.71

Royalty Rate

Discount Rate

(2.0) (1.0) 0.0 1.0 2.0

10.0 % $3.26 $4.35 $5.46 $7.39 $9.32

9.5 % 3.85 5.14 6.45 8.64 10.83

9.0 % 4.59 6.12 7.67 10.17 12.68

8.5 % 5.52 7.35 9.20 12.08 14.95

8.0 % 6.69 8.90 11.14 14.47 17.81

Incremental Slots

Discount Rate

Source: Company management

Note: Assumes 1,054mm basic shares outstanding, as of 06-Mar-2009. Fully diluted shares outstanding calculated using treasury stock method based on options schedule provided by Francis

management.


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Discounted Cash Flow Analysis 33

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Employee Stock Option Expense Assumptions

($ in millions, except per share data)

Key Assumptions

Employee stock expense per management estimates

Assumes Black Scholes based estimate of 2009 after-tax employee stock option expense of $328 million

6% annual growth rate of ESO issuance consists of an assumed 3% annual inflation plus 3% annual employee growth

— Sensitivity analysis varies 6% ESO growth rate by +/- 1.0% to reflect potential changes in inflation and employee growth

Net present value projected per Francis management

— Discount rate of 8.0 to 10.0%

Total Value Total Value Per Share

####### 5.0 % 5.5 % 6.0 % 6.5 % 7.0 %

10.0 % ($6,840) ($7,565) ($8,473) ($9,639) ($11,194)

9.5 % (7,588) (8,498) (9,668) (11,228) (13,412)

9.0 % (8,524) (9,698) (11,262) (13,453) (16,739)

8.5 % (9,728) (11,297) (13,494) (16,790) (22,283)

8.0 % (11,332) (13,536) (16,842) (22,352) (33,372)

ESO Growth Rate

Discount Rate

$(10.3) 5.0 % 5.5 % 6.0 % 6.5 % 7.0 %

10.0 % ($6.32) ($6.98) ($7.82) ($8.88) ($10.31)

9.5 % (6.99) (7.82) (8.89) (10.32) (12.31)

9.0 % (7.83) (8.90) (10.33) (12.32) (15.32)

8.5 % (8.91) (10.34) (12.33) (15.33) (20.33)

8.0 % (10.35) (12.35) (15.35) (20.35) (30.38)

ESO Growth Rate

Discount Rate

Source: Company management

Note: Assumes 1,054mm basic shares outstanding, as of 06-Mar-2009. Fully diluted shares outstanding calculated using treasury stock method based on options schedule provided by Francis

management.


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Present Value of Future Stock Price Analysis 34

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B. Present Value of Future Stock Price Analysis


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Present Value of Future Stock Price Analysis 35

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Present Value of Future Stock Price Analysis

Management Case, Adjusted for Share Repurchases at One Year Forward at 18.0x P/E1

($ Per Share)

Future Stock Price (Undiscounted) Present Value at 9.0% Cost of Equity

$78.66

$62.79

$54.26

$101.13

$80.73

$69.76

$123.61

$85.26

$98.67

$40

$60

$80

$100

$120

$140

2009E 2010E 2011E

14.0x 18.0x 22.0x

$66.21

$54.26

$57.61

$85.12

$69.76

$74.07

$104.04

$90.52

$85.26

$40

$60

$80

$100

$120

$140

2009E 2010E 2011E

14.0x 18.0x 22.0x

EPS (Mgmt Forecast)¹ $ 3.88 $ 4.49 $ 5.62 18.0%

IBES $ 3.80 $ 4.35 $4.99 13.4%

2009E 2010E 2011E 2008—2011E CAGR²

Source: Francis management projections and IBES

Note: Management EPS forecast has not been updated for new developments as reported by Francis management on 07-Mar-2009.

1 Assumes cash of $3.6bn, $7.2bn and $5.5bn for 2009E-2011E, respectively, used to repurchase shares based on management projections. Price of share repurchase assumed to be 18.0x one year

forward EPS per Management Case ($80.73, $101.13 and $122.49 for 2009E-2011E, respectively).

2 2008 actual non-GAAP EPS of $3.42 per company public filing. IBES estimates as of 20-Feb-2009 (prior to Investor Day presentation) were $3.79, $4.35 and $4.86 for 2009E, 2010E and 2011E,

respectively.


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Present Value of Future Stock Price Analysis 36

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Present Value of Future Stock Price Analysis

C-08 Upside Case, Adjusted for Share Repurchases at One Year Forward at 18.0x P/E1

($ Per Share)

Future Stock Price (Undiscounted) Present Value at 9.0% Cost of Equity

$82.26

$64.20

$54.27

$105.76

$82.55

$69.78

$129.26

$85.29

$100.89

$40

$60

$80

$100

$120

$140

2009E 2010E 2011E

14.0x 18.0x 22.0x

$69.23

$54.27

$58.90

$89.01

$69.78

$75.73

$108.79

$92.56

$85.29

$40

$60

$80

$100

$120

$140

2009E 2010E 2011E

14.0x 18.0x 22.0x

EPS (Mgmt Forecast)¹ $ 3.88 $ 4.59 $ 5.88 19.8%

IBES $ 3.80 $ 4.35 $4.99 13.4%

2009E 2010E 2011E 2008—2011E CAGR²

Source: Francis management projections and IBES

Note: Management EPS forecast has not been updated for new developments as reported by Francis management on 07-Mar-2009.

1 Assumes cash of $3.6bn, $7.2bn and $5.5bn for 2009E-2011E, respectively, used to repurchase shares based on management projections. Price of share repurchase assumed to be 18.0x one year

forward EPS per Management Case ($82.55, $105.76 and $129.32 for 2009E-2011E, respectively).

2 2008 actual non-GAAP EPS of $3.42 per company public filing. IBES estimates as of 20-Feb-2009 (prior to Investor Day presentation) were $3.79, $4.35 and $4.86 for 2009E, 2010E and 2011E,

respectively.


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Present Value of Future Stock Price Analysis 37

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Present Value of Future Stock Price Analysis

C-08 Downside Case, Adjusted for Share Repurchases at One Year Forward at 18.0x P/E1

($ Per Share)

Future Stock Price (Undiscounted) Present Value at 9.0% Cost of Equity

$72.84

$60.52

$54.24

$93.65

$77.81

$69.73

$114.46

$85.23

$95.10

$40

$60

$80

$100

$120

$140

2009E 2010E 2011E

14.0x 18.0x 22.0x

$61.31

$54.24 $55.52

$78.82

$69.73

$71.39

$96.34

$85.23 $87.25

$40

$60

$80

$100

$120

$140

2009E 2010E 2011E

14.0x 18.0x 22.0x

EPS (Mgmt Forecast)¹ $ 3.87 $ 4.32 $ 5.20 15.0%

IBES $ 3.80 $ 4.35 $4.99 13.4%

2009E 2010E 2011E 2008—2011E CAGR²

Source: Francis management projections and IBES

Note: Management EPS forecast has not been updated for new developments as reported by Francis management on 07-Mar-2009.

1 Assumes cash of $3.6bn, $7.2bn and $5.5bn for 2009E-2011E, respectively, used to repurchase shares based on management projections. Price of share repurchase assumed to be 18.0x one year

forward EPS per Management Case ($77.81, $93.65 and $109.72 for 2009E-2011E, respectively).

2 2008 actual non-GAAP EPS of $3.42 per company public filing. IBES estimates as of 20-Feb-2009 (prior to Investor Day presentation) were $3.79, $4.35 and $4.86 for 2009E, 2010E and 2011E,

respectively.


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Precedent Transactions 38

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C. Precedent Transactions


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Precedent Transactions 39

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Comparison of Selected Transactions

($ in millions)

Equity Enterprise Premium to Premium to

Date Consideration Valuation One Day Four Weeks

Announced Acquiror Target (mm) (1)(2) (mm) (1)(2) LTM Sales Prior (%) (3) Prior (%)

Pharma / BioPharma

06-Oct-2008 Eli Lilly & Co ImClone Systems Inc $6,645 $6,223 9.6 x 50.7 % 76.1 %

10-Apr-2008 Takeda Millennium 8,765 7,909 15.0 52.9 % 78.1 %

29-Nov-2007 Eisai Corporation MGI Pharma 3,924 3,760 10.2 38.7 % 25.8 %

18-Nov-2007 Celgene Corp Pharmion Corp 2,839 2,590 9.7 46.1 % 53.5 %

23-Apr-2007 AstraZeneca PLC MedImmune Inc 15,410 14,386 10.6 20.8 % 70.0 %

20-Feb-2007 Shire PLC New River Pharmaceuticals Inc 2,646 2,499 NM 9.7 % 15.4 %

30-Oct-2006 Merck & Co Inc Sirna Therapeutics Inc 1,121 1,038 NM 100.2 % 135.5%

17-Oct-2006 Eli Lilly & Co ICOS Corp 2,441 2,334 30.4 18.0 % 25.4%

02-Oct-2006 Gilead Sciences Inc Myogen Inc 2,408 2,231 NM 49.7 % 50.0%

21-Sep-2006 Merck KGaA Serono International SA 8,296 12,863 4.5 20.2 % 30.5%

15-May-2006 AstraZeneca PLC Cambridge Antibody Tech Grp 1,116 1,077 8.5 66.9 % 71.4%

14-Dec-2005 Amgen Inc Abgenix Inc 2,779 2,496 NM 53.6 % 67.7%

07-Sep-2005 GlaxoSmithKline PLC ID Biomedical Corp 1,416 1,394 21.9 13.0 % 43.9%

01-Sep-2005 Novartis AG Chiron Corp 5,734 8,850 5.1 23.5 % 23.3%

16-Jun-2005 Pfizer Inc Vicuron Pharmaceuticals Inc 1,924 1,799 NM 84.2 % 67.3%

21-Apr-2005 Shire Pharmaceuticals Grp PLC Transkaryotic Therapies Inc 1,571 1,448 17.4 21.6 % 58.5%

18-May-2004 UCB SA Celltech Group PLC 2,718 2,450 3.9 27.6 % 22.0%

29-Mar-2004 Amgen Inc Tularik Inc 1,424 1,851 37.0 47.1 % 33.0%

26-Feb-2004 Genzyme Corp ILEX Oncology Inc 1,048 947 27.2 25.0 % 10.5%

High $ 15,410 $ 14,386 37.0 x 100.2% 135.5%

Mean 3,907 4,113 15.1 40.5% 50.4%

Median 2,646 2,450 10.4 38.7% 50.0%

Low 1,048 947 3.9 9.7% 10.5%

Pharma / Pharma

Pfizer Wyeth 67,810 64,163 2.8 x 29.3% 38.9%

Bayer Schering AG 21,004 20,589 2.9 44.0% 58.9%

Sanofi Aventis 65,598 67,653 3.2 22.7% 28.0%

Pfizer Pharmacia 58,963 65,396 4.7 47.2% 25.3%

High $ 67,810 $ 67,653 4.7 x 47.2% 58.9%

Mean 53,344 54,450 3.4 35.8% 37.8%

Median 62,281 64,779 3.1 36.7% 33.5%

Low 21,004 20,589 2.8 22.7% 25.3%

(1) Local currency values converted to USD based on foreign exchange rates on the respective transaction announcement date.

(2) Sources: LTM numbers are based on latest publicly available financial statements.

(3) Represents premium to one day prior to announcement or premium to undistrubed share price.

25-Jan-2009

23-Mar-2006

26-Jan-2004

15-Jul-2002

Enterprise Value


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Precedent Transactions 40

Draft – Highly Confidential

Comparison of Selected Minority Buyout Transactions

($ in millions)

Date

Effective Target Name Acquiror Name

% Owned Prior to

Transaction

Date

Announced

Transaction Value of

Minoirty Shares ($mm)

Initial Premium Over

Market Price

Final Premium Over

Market Price % Increase in Offer

Greater Than 50% Owned Prior to Transaction

02-Jan-2009 Nationwide Finl Svcs Inc Nationwide Mutual Insurance Co 66.5% 05-Mar-2008 $2,863 15.9% 28.3% 10.7%

04-Nov-2008 UnionBanCal corp Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ 64.9 26-Apr-2008 3,808 9.4 38.6 26.7

Withdrawn Hearst-Argyle Television Hearst Corporation 73.3 24-Aug-2007 600 14.9 14.9 0.0

15-Apr-2008 Alfa Corp Alfa Mutual Group 54.7 17-Jul-2007 833 15.8 44.7 25.0

20-Dec-2007 Tribune Co Sam Zell 52.5 02-Apr-2007 3,883 5.9 5.9 0.0

29-Sep-2007 Great American Finl Res American Financial Group 81.0 22-Feb-2007 246 8.6 13.2 4.3

20-Apr-2007 TD Banknorth Inc. Toronto-Dominion Bank 57.0 19-Nov-2006 3,175 6.5 6.5 0.0

26-Jul-2006 William Lyon Homes General William Lyon 74.5 17-Mar-2006 246 22.9 44.0 17.2

16-May-2006 Lafarge North America Lafarge SA 53.2 06-Feb-2006 2,858 16.7 33.1 14.0

09-Nov-2005 7-Eleven Inc IYG Holding Co 72.7 01-Sep-2005 1,182 14.7 32.3 15.4

15-Jun-2005 UGC Holdings Liberty Media 53.6 17-Jan-2005 3,481 (0.6) (0.3) 0.3

02-Dec-2004 Cox Communications Cox Enterprises Inc 68.0 02-Aug-2004 8,532 16.0 26.0 8.6

23-Jun-2003 Hotels.com USA Interactive 68.0 09-Apr-2003 1,116 14.3 14.3 0.0

20-Mar-2002 Intimate Brands Inc Limited Inc 83.7 04-Feb-2002 1,580 10.2 13.1 2.6

01-Oct-2001 Westfield America Inc Westfield America Trust 77.5 15-Feb-2001 268 12.5 12.5 0.0

21-Feb-2001 Infinity Broadcasting Viacom Inc 62.4 14-Aug-2000 16,986 12.2 12.2 0.0

02-Jan-2001 AXA Financial Inc AXA Group 60.3 30-Aug-2000 14,096 2.4 4.6 2.1

15-Sep-2000 Vastar Resources Inc BP Amoco PLC 81.9 16-Mar-2000 1,592 12.5 31.5 16.9

12-Sep-2000 CareInsite Inc Healtheon/WebMD Inc 67.4 14-Feb-2000 1,763 5.3 5.3 0.0

26-Jun-2000 Hartford Life Hartford Fin Svcs Group 81.5 27-Mar-2000 1,308 3.4 18.6 14.8

14-Jun-2000 IXnet Inc Global Crossing 73.0 18-Feb-2000 854 17.9 17.9 0.0

20-Apr-2000 Travelers Property Casualty Citigroup 85.0 22-Mar-2000 2,397 35.3 36.7 1.1

High 35.3% 44.7% 26.7%

Mean 12.4 20.6 7.3

Median 12.5 16.4 2.4

Low (0.6) (0.3) 0.0

Less Than 50% Owned Prior to Transaction

Withdrawn Cablevision Systems Corp Management 22.5% 06-Oct-2006 22,569 13.7% 52.7% 34.3%

20-Apr-2006 Chiron Corp Novartis AG 42.0 01-Sep-2005 6,339 9.8 31.7 20.0

08-Aug-2003 Expedia USA Interactive 46.5 31-May-2002 6,745 1.6 35.8 33.6

20-Dec-2001 BancWest Corp. BNP Paribas 55.0 06-May-2001 2,402 40.1 40.1 0.0

15-Jun-2001 Sodexho Marriott Services Sodexho Alliance SA 48.0 25-Jan-2001 2,168 8.5 28.6 18.5

High 40.1% 52.7% 34.3%

Mean 14.7 37.8 21.3

Median 9.8 35.8 20.0

Low 1.6 28.6 0.0


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Precedent Transactions 41

Draft – Highly Confidential

Analysis at $95.00 Per Share

($ in millions, except per share data)

Price Per Share $95.00

Total Equity Consideration—Diluted $102,553

Net Debt (7,684)

Enterprise Value $94,869

Transaction Size $46,770

Premium to Stock Price

18-Jul-2008 Close Price $81.82 16.1 %

4 Weeks Prior (20-Jun-2008) 74.76 27.1

30-Day Average (as of 18-Jul-2008) 75.96 25.1

18-Jul-2008 Closing Price Adjusted for

Large Cap Biotech Performance¹ 60.71 56.5

Revenue

2008A $13,418 7.1 x

2009E 14,118 6.7

2010E 15,099 6.3

2011E 16,648 5.7

Source: Bloomberg as of 09-Mar-2009

Note: The initial offer price of $89.00 per share represents a 8.8% premium to the unaffected price of $81.82 per share and the increased offer price of $95.00 per share represents a 6.7% premium to the

initial offer price of $89.00 per share.

1 Large Cap Biotech Composite includes: Amgen, Biogen Idec, Celgene, Genzyme and Gilead. Since 18-Jul-2008, Large Cap Biotech Index is down 25.8% and implies an adjusted price of $60.71 when

applied to Francis 18-Jul-2008 stock price of $81.82.


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Transaction Related Financial Analysis 42

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Appendix A: Transaction Related Financial Analysis


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Transaction Related Financial Analysis 43

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Transaction-Related Source of Value

Synergies to James

— James publicly acknowledges $750 to $850 million in synergy opportunity

Precedent transactions show this estimate to be conservative when measured as a percentage of sales and

operating expenses

Tax Benefits

— Inter-company loan: James acknowledges using inter-company tax strategies in recent acquisitions to reduce

tax leakage

— Long-term tax strategies: Under James’ ownership, Francis can gradually lower the tax rate by moving existing

IP and housing new IP in foreign jurisdictions as well as expanding Francis’ current plan to offshore

manufacturing activities

The Intangibles – Control versus Ownership

— “Be very careful — we control, but we don’t own. And there is, as Bill or Severin pointed out, there is no free

exchange of information, of know-how, of intellectual property; all that is today not possible. We are running two

parallel organizations. We are running programs that are parallel and perhaps should not be parallel. We are

developing the same drugs on the one hand in the United States through an organization; on the other hand,

outside of the States through an organization. More and more large company overlaps are being created.”

-— Franz Humer, Investor Conference, 22-Jul-2008

Cash Flow Control


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Transaction Related Financial Analysis 44

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Illustrative Benefits Related to Inter-Company Loan

($ in billions, except per share data)

Potential Inter-Company Loan Benefit

James Swiss parent raises debt in non-U.S. jurisdictions

James parent loans proceeds to its U.S. subsidiary at an arm’s-length rate (e.g., 8%) to fund the buyout consideration (the “intercompany

loan”)

The inter-company loan creates tax deductions in the U.S. which enhances after-tax cash flow from Francis’ operations

— Interest on inter-company loan is generally deductible for U.S. tax purposes provided aggregate interest expense does not exceed

50% of taxable EBITDA

— Interest payments should not be subject to U.S. withholding tax under U.S.-Swiss tax treaty

Need to determine whether and at what rate the interest income would be taxable in Switzerland

— Generally, Swiss companies would be subject to tax on interest income at 25% tax rate, although there may be structures to reduce

tax liability in Switzerland

Illustrative tax shield assuming $30 billion in new debt:

— ($30bn debt * 8% interest rate * 39% marginal tax rate) = $936mm annual benefit

— If Swiss tax rate on interest income is 25%, net tax savings of $336mm; net benefit even greater if interest income is subject to even

lower tax rate in Switzerland or the Netherlands

NPV Benefit of Inter-Company Loan at Various Swiss Tax Rates

Per Total Share Per Minority Share

$ 9.5 $10.0 $20.0 $30.0 $40.0 $50.0

25 % $1.14 $2.28 $3.42 $4.56 $5.70

20 % 1.55 3.10 4.65 6.19 7.74

15 % 1.96 3.91 5.87 7.82 9.78

10 % 2.36 4.73 7.09 9.45 11.82

5 % 2.77 5.54 8.31 11.08 13.85

0 % 3.18 6.36 9.53 12.71 15.89

Inter-Company Loan Amount ($bn)

Swiss Tax Rate

$ 20.7 $10.0 $20.0 $30.0 $40.0 $50.0

25 % $2.47 $4.94 $7.41 $9.89 $12.36

20 % 3.35 6.71 10.06 13.42 16.77

15 % 4.24 8.47 12.71 16.95 21.18

10 % 5.12 10.24 15.36 20.48 25.60

5 % 6.00 12.00 18.01 24.01 30.01

0 % 6.88 13.77 20.65 27.54 34.42

Inter-Company Loan Amount ($bn)

Swiss Tax Rate

Note: Assumes 1,091mm diluted shares outstanding. Assumes James owns 587mm shares and the remainder held by minority shareholders. Assumes 9.0% cost of capital. Assumes James will not pay

down transaction debt and U.S. marginal tax rate of 39%. This analysis represents a stand-alone case that captures solely the potential inter-company loan benefit and assumes that no other tax benefits

are achieved.


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Transaction Related Financial Analysis 45

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Illustrative Benefits Related to Long-Term Tax Strategies

Over time James may be able to offshore Francis IP to achieve a lower overall tax rate

— Immediate movement of IP offshore would generate a large one-time tax bill

In addition, due to global operations, James may be able to accelerate and/or maintain offshore manufacturing tax benefits

for a longer period

The long term benefit of a tax rate that approximates James’ current tax rate could contribute significant long-term value

The table below shows the net value that could be created by trending to a 24% terminal year tax rate vs. a 27% tax rate

Present Value of Long-term Tax Strategies

Per Total Share Per Minority Share

# ##### 2.0 % 2.5 % 3.0 % 3.5 % 4.0 %

10.0 % $0.15 $0.27 $0.41 $0.56 $0.75

9.5 % 0.37 0.51 0.68 0.88 1.11

9.0 % 0.63 0.81 1.02 1.27 1.57

8.5 % 0.95 1.18 1.44 1.76 2.15

8.0 % 1.35 1.63 1.97 2.39 2.91

Discount Rate

Perpetuity Growth Rate

# ##### 2.0 % 2.5 % 3.0 % 3.5 % 4.0 %

10.0 % $0.33 $0.61 $0.92 $1.28 $1.69

9.5 % 0.83 1.16 1.54 1.99 2.52

9.0 % 1.43 1.84 2.31 2.88 3.55

8.5 % 2.16 2.66 3.27 3.99 4.87

8.0 % 3.04 3.69 4.46 5.40 6.58

Discount Rate

Perpetuity Growth Rate

Note: Assumes 1,054mm basic shares outstanding, as of 06-Mar-2009. Fully diluted shares outstanding calculated using treasury stock method based on options schedule provided by Francis

management. Assumes 44.2% minority holdings. Assumes James will not pay down transaction debt. Potential tax withholding related to interest income to parent entity is not included in analysis.


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Transaction Related Financial Analysis 46

Draft – Highly Confidential

Synergy Levels in Precedent Pharmaceutical Transactions

($ in millions)

Total Cost Savings as a %

of Prior Year Combined

Announced Transactions

Total Announced

Cost Savings ($mm) Pharma Sales R&D + SG&A

James / Francis $750—$850 2.5%—2.8% 4.4%—5.0%

Pfizer / Wyeth 4,000 6.3 12.2

UCB / Schwarz 382 10.8 17.5

AstraZeneca / MedImmune 500 1.8 3.3

Roche / Syntex 825 10.6 21.4

Glaxo / Wellcome 1,165 9.4 19.9

Ciba-Geigy / Sandoz 1,500 7.8 17.7

Pfizer / Warner-Lambert ¹ 1,700 8.1 14.5

Astra / Zeneca 1,900 8.5 14.1

Pharmacia / Upjohn 500 6.7 13.5

Glaxo / SmithKline 1,700 8.1 13.0

AHP / Monsanto ² 1,400 6.2 12.9

Sanofi-Synthelabo / Aventis 1,940 6.1 12.5

Pfizer / Pharmacia 2,500 6.8 11.0

Monsanto / Pharmacia & Upjohn 600 5.7 9.4

AHP / Warner-Lambert ² 1,200 6.9 9.1

High 10.8% 21.4%

Mean 7.3 13.5

Median 6.9 13.0

Low 1.8 3.3

Source: Publicly available information

1 Represents percentages based on Pharma businesses only. Adjusts for Warner-Lambert’s consumer and confectionary businesses and Pfizer’s animal health and consumer businesses.

2 Deal withdrawn.


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Transaction Related Financial Analysis 47

Draft – Highly Confidential

Illustrative Benefits Related to Incremental Synergy Benefits

James has messaged $750—$850mm in synergies

— Precedent transactions indicate synergies could be substantially larger

EPS Impact to James

The incremental impact of $100mm of pre-tax synergies is an annual CHF 0.09 per share to James EPS (approximately

0.7% of James 2009E EPS)

Present Value of Synergies

Discounted by 8.0%—10.0%, assuming no growth rate

Present Value of Synergies

Per Total Share Per Minority Share

4.887986 $750 $850 $1,500 $2,250

10.0 % $4.40 $4.99 $8.80 $13.20

9.0 % 4.89 5.54 9.78 14.66

8.0 % 5.50 6.23 11.00 16.50

Cost of Capital

Annual Savings

10.58774 $750 $850 $1,500 $2,250

10.0 % $9.53 $10.80 $19.06 $28.59

9.0 % 10.59 12.00 21.18 31.76

8.0 % 11.91 13.50 23.82 35.73

Cost of Capital

Annual Savings

Note: Assumes 1,091mm diluted shares outstanding. Assumes James owns 587mm shares and the remainder held by minority shareholders. Synergies taxed at Francis tax rate of approximately 36.0%.

EPS benefit to James based on 1.16 CHF : USD exchange rate and 862.6 million James shares outstanding. Percentage change to James EPS based on 2009E Wall Street EPS of CHF 11.57.


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Supplementary Materials 48

Draft – Highly Confidential

Appendix B: Supplementary Materials


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Supplementary Materials 49

Draft – Highly Confidential

Weighted Average Cost of Capital Analysis

As of 09-Mar-2009

Selected Comparables

Predicted Adjusted

Company Market Equity Equity Beta (1) Asset Beta

Francis $98,466 0.65 0.65

Amgen 47,955 0.68 0.67

Biogen Idec 13,148 0.77 0.77

Celgene 18,911 0.92 0.92

Genzyme 14,428 0.71 0.71

Gilead 40,091 0.94 0.94

Mean 0.80 0.80

Median 0.77 0.77

WACC Sensitivity Table

Equity Beta

3.79% 0.73 0.78 0.83 0.88 0.93

4.1% 6.7% 7.0% 7.2% 7.4% 7.6%

5.1% 7.5% 7.7% 8.0% 8.2% 8.5%

6.1% 8.2% 8.5% 8.8% 9.1% 9.4%

7.1% 8.9% 9.3% 9.6% 10.0% 10.3%

Equity Risk

Premium

Source: Company filings, Ibbotson and Bloomberg

Note: Market Equity represents diluted market capitalization.

1 Bloomberg 5-year weekly predicted betas.


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Supplementary Materials 50

Draft – Highly Confidential

James’ Issuance of $36 Billion of Senior Unsecured Notes

Largest Single Currency Corporate Offerings in Both US Dollars and Euros

18-Feb-2009 – 04-Mar-2009

Transaction Details Summary of Offerings

Issuer James

Current Ratings

Moody’s: Aa1 (CreditWatch Negative)

S&P: AA- (Stable Outlook)

Fitch: AA (CreditWatch Negative)

Expected

Ratings

Moody’s: A1 or A2

S&P: AAFormat

144A without registration rights

Aggregate Deal

Size

? $32.7 billion equivalent from 18-Feb-2009 to 26-Feb-2009

— $16.50 billion in 1yr, 2yr, 3yr, 5yr, 10yr, and 30yr notes

— €11.25 billion in 1yr, 4yr, 7yr, and 12yr notes

— £1.25 billion in 6yr notes

— CHF4.0bn in 3yr and 8yr notes

Use of Proceeds ? Partially finance the proposed hostile acquisition of the 44% of Francis

James does not already own

Early

Redemption

? Make whole call provision included in US dollar offerings (not in Euro,

Sterling or Swiss Franc offerings)

Coupon Step-up ? Included given the unique uncertainty of the acquisition

? Coupon step-ups if James’ credit rating falls below A2/A+

? 25 basis points per notch, per agency, cap of 200 basis points

? Provision lasts until July 2010 or 90 days after the completion of the

Francis acquisition

M&A Timeline

Apr-76 Francis founded

Feb-90 Francis agrees to sell a controlling stake to James (“ROSW”) for $2.1bn. Under the

terms of the deal, ROSW would own about 60% of Francis voting stock.

Jun-99 James exercises call option to buy the remaining portion of Francis it did not own,

then reissued up to 19 percent of the stock, preserving Francis’ status as an

independently traded company. James later makes another offer for Francis shares

Jul-08 James offers to acquire all outstanding shares in Francis for $43.7 billion in cash

Aug-08 Francis rejects James’ offer to acquire the 44% of Francis it does not already own

Jan-09 James turns hostile, cutting its bid to $86.50 per share in cash, valuing the deal at

$42.5 billion

18-Feb-09 James issues $16.5bn in investment grade bonds

23-Feb-09 Francis Special Committee Rejects James’ $86.50 Offer as Inadequate

25-Feb-09 James issues $16.2bn equivalent in Euro and Sterling notes

04-Mar-09 James issues $3.4bn equivalent in Swiss Franc c notes

Pricing Date 18-Feb-2009

Active Bookrunners Bank of America, Citi, JPMorgan

Passive Bookrunners Barclays, BNP Paribas, Credit Suisse, Deutsche Bank, Mitsubishi

Note Description S S US DollarS C

1-yr 2-yr1 3-yr 5-yr 10-yr 30-yr

Deal Size $3.0bn $1.25bn $2.5bn $2.75bn $4.5bn $2.5bn

Maturity 2/25/10 2/25/11 3/1/12 3/1/14 3/1/19 3/1/39

Coupon FRN FRN 4.5% 5.0% 6.0% 7.0%

Reoffer Spread L+100 L+200 T+335 T+335 T+345 T+365

Pricing Date 25-Feb-2009

Active Bookrunners Barclays, BNP Paribas, Deutsche Bank, Santander

Passive Bookrunners Bank of America, Citi, Credit Suisse, JPMorgan, Mitsubishi UFJ,

UBS, Unicredit

Note Description Euro Sterling

1-yr1 4-yr 7-yr 12-yr 6-yr

Deal Size €1.5bn €5.25bn €2.75bn €1.75bn £1.25bn

Maturity 3/4/10 3/4/13 3/4/16 3/4/21 3/4/15

Coupon FRN 4.625% 5.625% 6.500% 5.500%

Reoffer Spread L+95 MS+225 MS+265 MS+310 G+270

Pricing Date 04-Mar-2009

Active Bookrunners Credit Suisse, UBS

Passive Bookrunner Unicredit HVB

Note Description Swiss Franc

3-yr 8-yr

Deal Size CHF2.5bn CHF1.5bn

Maturity 3/23/12 3/23/17

Coupon 2.500% 4.500

Reoffer Spread MS+140 MS+220


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Supplementary Materials 51

Draft – Highly Confidential

Research Price Targets and Key Themes

$93 Offer

Broker Date Price Target Price and Financial Analysis Commentary

Barclays 09-Mar-2009 $97.00 “While the increased offer may suggest increased confidence in C-08

success, downside risk is substantial. With multiple contraction on peers

to 15x 2009 EPS, we estimate <$60 for Francis base business and would

see a likelihood of success of >80% would have to be argued to reject

the $93 offer. We see no downside to buying Francis’ shares below the offer

price and would make a final decision on the strength of Francis’ response.”

Citi 06-Mar-2009 $92.00 “While we strongly discouraged Francis shareholders to tender their shares

when the bid was $86.50 per share, our opinion is moving toward neutral with

the new bid. After thoroughly studying Francis’ R&D presentation, we do not

think the new bid captures Francis’ long-term value. At the same time, we are

keenly aware of the downside risk for the stock if C-08 trial results are

negative as the shares could trade to the low $70s.”

“Our $92 target price is based on 21x our fully-taxed non-GAAP 2010 EPS

estimate of $4.37. We believe Francis deserves a premium to the current

group average of 13x due to higher ‘09/’10 growth (18% vs. 15%),

numerous upcoming catalysts that could unlock growth opportunities that are

rare in the large cap-biotech space and support from a potential James

acquisition.”

JP Morgan 06-Mar-2009 $105.00 “We expect over 50% of the publicly held shares to tender by the March

20th deadline, though we still expect some to retain a partial position on

the upside potential from the adjuvant Avastin data expected in mid-

April. The new bid follows discussions with Francis holders over the past few

weeks on what a more reasonable price would be, though we still think this

is several dollars below the price we think Francis holders were looking

for – likely $95. Overall, we think this is a much more reasonable offer, and it

makes the risk-reward in holding out for the adjuvant data less compelling.

That said, we recommend that Francis shareholders tender some (~75%) of

their shares, but not all, given our bullish stance on C-08 and the potential of a

higher price (>$93) determined by investment banks if >90% of shares

tender.”

Source: Wall Street research


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Supplementary Materials 52

Draft – Highly Confidential

Research Price Targets and Key Themes

$93 Offer

Broker Date Price Target Price and Financial Analysis Commentary

Morgan Stanley 09-Mar-2009 $97.00 “Again based on our discussions with large shareholders, there is an emerging

view that this deal is inevitable (even though many may try to hold out for

adjuvant Avastin data unless higher price), and given the higher value of

Francis in a friendly transaction with an intact management team, a negotiated

transaction represents the best possible outcome.”

“Deal closes after positive Avastin data in adjuvant CRC ($115—$110):

“We believe adjuvant cancer represents a significant opportunity for Avastin,

with $1.5-$2bn in colorectal and >$4bn in other cancers (breast, lung). These

sales would significantly increase Francis’ fair value. Assuming adjuvant

success and adjusting Avastin sales accordingly we estimate Avastin in

adjuvant adds >$20 in value.”

“Adjuvant succeeds, but James deal fails to close ($95-$100): We still

expect meaningful upside in the event that Avastin succeeds in adjuvant

cancers, but the James deal fails, as the sales opportunity is significant and can

drive 11% top-line growth for the next 5 years.”

“Adjuvant fails, but James deal succeeds ($80-$86.5): Even in the event

that adjuvant fails, we do not expect James will lower its price meaningfully

below its current offer of $86.50. James has stated its intentions of completing

this transaction regardless of the outcome of the upcoming adjuvant trial and

has also emphasized that it sees less value than Francis in the adjuvant setting,

limiting downside from failure. Furthermore, shareholders have expressed

disappointment with the current offer and will be unlikely to agree to a value that

is meaningfully lower.”

“James deal and adjuvant fail ($65—$70): Though we expect the initial stock

reaction in this scenario will be significant, we continue to see several

opportunities for growth (label expansion opportunities for nearly all key

oncology products, and pipeline potential). Even in this scenario, we project topline

CAGR of 7% and expect the stock will slowly work its way back up to the

$80s after an initial shock. We do not see this as a probable scenario given

James’ recent financing and need for Francis.”

Source: Wall Street research


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Supplementary Materials 53

Draft – Highly Confidential

Research Price Targets and Key Themes

$93 Offer

Broker Date Price Target Price and Financial Analysis Commentary

Oppenheimer 06-Mar-2009 $105.00 “We believe the deal is much more likely to be completed at $93/shr,

although we do not believe this outcome is 100% certain. We expect

Francis’ independent board will deem the new offer too low. However,

with substantial recent weakness in the biotech sector, and the overall market,

we believe many shareholders may well accept this price.”

UBS 06-Mar-2009 $100.00 “With this increased tender offer, we believe that a reasonable number of

investors will likely tender their shares. We envision this to occur because

with the S&P500 down greater than 20% and healthcare down significantly as

well since the initial tender on Feb 9, an offer of $93/share represents a much

more attractive offer than it would have in a less volatile market. Also of note,

Francis has outperformed the markets by greater than 40% since James’ initial

bid of $89.”

“Our price target is derived from a 1.2 PEG, a 14.6% 2008-12E EPS CAGR &

2011E EPS of $5.20 (ex-ESOs) (resulting in $90) & an additional $10

based on our expectations for the C-08 trial.”

Source: Wall Street research


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Supplementary Materials 54

Draft – Highly Confidential

Research Price Targets and Key Themes

$93 Offer

Broker Date Price Target Price and Financial Analysis Commentary

Cowen 09-Mar-2009— “We believe James’ $93/share cash offer provides a fair value to minority

shareholders, and expect a majority of independently held shares to be

tendered by March 20. While a successful tender would support modest

upside in Francis shares, we see $5+/share downside risk in the event the

tender does not transpire. Following the cash tender, remaining minority

shareholders will face binary stock performance heading into the results

of Avastin’s adjuvant colon cancer trial (data in April). We view Avastin

as having no better than a 50% chance of success in the NSABP-C08

study, and believe the risk/reward of owning shares into this event is no

longer positive.”

Jefferies 09-Mar-2009 $93.00 “We view $93 as reasonable on a risk/reward adjusted basis. Biotech assets

have declined ~13% post-Obama budget announcement on February 26. The

NASDAQ Biotech Index (NBI) and AMEX Biotech Index (NBI) have fallen

~13% and the AMEX Pharmaceutical Index (DRG) down ~10% since

February 25. As such, we view $93/sh as reasonable, particularly ahead of

Avastin Phase III adjuvant data release for colorectal cancer in mid-April.”

Source: Wall Street research


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Supplementary Materials 55

Draft – Highly Confidential

Research Price Targets and Key Themes

$93 Offer

Broker Date Price Target Price and Financial Analysis Commentary

Natixis 09-Mar-2009 $97.00 “We estimate that between 45% to 65% of Francis shares that James

doesn’t already own could be tendered at $93.00, which raises a distinct

possibility that James could succeed in consummating the tender if

more than half of the minority shares are tendered, but not achieve 90%

of the ownership to effect a squeeze-out merger. In this scenario (James

owning between 78% and 90% of the James shares), even if the colorectal

trial fails, we believe the market will view it as inevitable that James will

eventually buy the remaining Francis shares. Therefore, the stock may not

drop to the $60s and $70s, as it otherwise would, but rather to the $80s in

anticipation of James’ next move. This would then become a self-fulfilling

prophecy, in that any attempt by James to buy the remaining shares

would drive Francis stock price up to the $90s. If the colorectal trial

succeeds, then James would have to pay more than $100.00 to buy the

remaining stock. All taken into account, we believe it makes more sense for

James to negotiate a deal with Francis and complete this deal once and for all

in the near term, potentially before the March 20 tender deadline.”

“We see a possible price range of $95.00 to $100.00 per share.”

Thomas Weisel Partners 09-Mar-2009— “We believe investors will be encouraged by the higher bid and expect more

shareholders to tender their shares (500,000 shares tendered as of March 5).

We believe there is now a significantly higher likelihood of success of

the tender given the unwillingness of many investors to hold Francis

shares heading into the adjuvant data for Avastin in April. In addition, the

recent downturn in the biotech group fueled by concerns regarding

President Obama’s ambitiosus proposed changes to the healthcare

system has chased away many generalist investors that had invested in

biotech. The combination of these two factors could enable the James tender

to succeed.”

Source: Wall Street research


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Supplementary Materials 56

Draft – Highly Confidential

Research Price Targets and Key Themes

$93 Offer

Broker Date Price Target Price and Financial Analysis Commentary

Baird 06-Mar-2009 $100.00 “We place an Outperform rating on Francis shares. Large-cap biotech

multiples have compressed in the last few quarters from a traditional range of

30-40X current-year EPS expectations. In that we acknowledge the

compressing multiples in the biotech industry (the group currently

trades near 17X 2009E EPS), we apply a 26 multiple to our 2009 EPS

estimate of $3.85 to derive our 12-month price target of $100.”

Bernstein 06-Mar-2009 $92.00 “This new bid strikes us as very astute and one of the smarter things James

has done through this process. It is almost at the $95 level where we would

expect to see significant support for the bid, and could easily pull in a

substantial number of minority investors. While it still falls materially short of

the value sought by the independent directors, it does get closer to the $95-

$100 range where many minority shareholders seem willing to take their gains

and walk away… Many investors are likely to view this as a bird in the

hand that gives them most of the upside they would expect for adjuvant

from a freestanding Francis, and protects them against the downside of

adjuvant failing (30-40% chance) and/or James walking away (low

probability in our view).”

“Our $92 target price for Francis is based on the high likelihood we place on a

deal between James and Francis being completed ($92 is the probability

weighted average of our acquisition scenarios). We now assign a 5%

probability to no deal and a negative adjuvant result, and the value a

year from now being $78, 20% to James walking away after a positive

adjuvant colon cancer result with the stock trading in the high $80’s to

low $90’s, 5% to the deal closing at James’ original bid price of $86.50,

40% to James raising their bid to $100 in Q2 09 after positive adjuvant,

and 30% to James making a revised lower bid in the $82-$83 range if

adjuvant colon cancer is negative. Our DCF analysis supports fair value

for the stock today of $87.25. Using a growth adjusted biotech/medtech

multiple of 19x applied to our adjusted 2010 EPS estimate of $4.68 also

supports a price in the range of $92.”

Source: Wall Street research


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Supplementary Materials 57

Draft – Highly Confidential

Research Price Targets and Key Themes

$93 Offer

Broker Date Price Target Price and Financial Analysis Commentary

BMO 06-Mar-2009 $88.00 “While we strongly discouraged Francis shareholders to tender their shares

when the bid was $86.50 per share, our opinion is moving toward neutral with

the new bid. After thoroughly studying Francis’ R&D presentation, we do

not think the new bid captures Francis’ long-term value. At the same

time, we are keenly aware of the downside risk for the stock if C-08 trial

results are negative as the shares could trade to the low $70s.”

RBC 06-Mar-2009 $100.00 “At $93/share, we think that James is much more likely to get 50% of

minority owners to tender. However, it remains uncertain that James will

get the 90% ownership that it needs to squeeze out the remaining

minority holders. The ongoing Avastin adjuvant trial remains a potential

upside, in our view. We maintain our positive view on this trial, and assign a

65% probability of success in April. However, given the challenging equity

environment and risk/reward with the adjuvant study, we believe $93 is an

attractive return in this market. Assuming James had never made the offer

and Francis shares had traded down with the sector (down 29% since July

2008), Francis shares would be $55-60, so the $93 bid is a substantial

premium in today’s market.”

Rodman & Renshaw 06-Mar-2009 $90.00 “We believe that minority shareholders will view this as a fair price for

the company and will now tender their shares. As such we are

downgrading Francis to a Market Perform rating and expect the

transaction to be fully consummated within coming months. In our view

the primary risk to the deal not completing would be James’ failure to secure

the remaining financing required. We view this risk as very limited even in the

current macro market environment.”

Source: Wall Street research


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Supplementary Materials 58

Draft – Highly Confidential

Research Price Targets and Key Themes

Investor Day

Broker Date Price and Financial Analysis Commentary

BMO 03-Mar-2009 “We believe Francis presented a compelling argument to convince minority shareholders to not accept

the current James offer of $86.50. Francis’ probability adjusted revenue expectations for Avastin in

adjuvant setting are basically in line with our risk-adjusted present value expectation of roughly $5 billion.

Moreover, Francis presented a strong argument for reasonable growth from non-adjuvant indications in

case the C-08 trial is negative.”

“Probability adjusted based on 61% C-08 success ($100) and 75% probability of another James offer

at 15% premium of negative C-08 price ($63).”

Deutsche Bank 03-Mar-2009 “Overall, the meeting did little to change our overall opinion that most investors will tender their

shares AHEAD of the adjuvant data IF JAMES BUMPS THE BID INTO THE LOW/MID-$90s. If James

doesn’t budge from its current level, we see little chance the tender is successful. In the end, the adjuvant

colon data remains a watershed valuation event, and investors will need to decide if they can tolerate the

short/intermediate term volatility that a negative outcome could create. However, yesterday’s analyst

meeting should provide additional comfort that Francis’ long term value goes well beyond this single trial.”

Lazard 03-Mar-2009 “At yesterday’s investor meeting we believe management made a compelling case for a higher valuation.

In our opinion the current market capitalization does not adequately reflect the company’s future prospects,

especially given the large number of growth drivers for the company.”

“Our $98 price target derives from a 24x multiple applied to our 2Q09-1Q10 non-GAAP EPS estimate

of $4.13, excluding stock option expense. Our 24x multiple is based on a 1.4 P/E/G ratio multiplied by

our long-term (2008-2011) growth rate estimate of 17%.”

Source: Wall Street research


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Supplementary Materials 59

Draft – Highly Confidential

Research Price Targets and Key Themes

Investor Day

Broker Date Price and Financial Analysis Commentary

Piper Jaffray 03-Mar-2009 “We note that our valuation implies that Francis as a standalone company is still worth $89 even if

adjuvant fails, and that speculated downside into $60s on adjuvant failure appears unjustified, even

if you minimize the difficult-to-value pipeline component and base the valuation purely on the free cash

flow”

“We are maintaining our Buy rating. Our $112 target is based on a sum-of-the-parts DCF analysis

(base business $60 + Avastin adjuvant $18 + cost synergies $5 + pipeline $27 flow generation from

the base business alone.”

Baird 02-Mar-2009 “We come away from Francis’ investor day encouraged by management’s robust depiction of the long-term

growth outlook, and believe management’s defense of the 2008 Financial Plan will keep investors holding

out for a higher James takeout offer. With Avastin C-08 data quickly approaching, we think a higher James

offer is imminent, and remain buyers of Francis shares into the $100 range.”

“We place an Outperform rating on Francis shares. Large-cap biotech multiples have compressed in the

last few quarters from a traditional range of 30-40X current-year EPS expectations. In that we acknowledge

the compressing multiples in the biotech industry (the group currently trades near 17X 2009E EPS), we

apply a 26 multiple to our 2009 EPS estimate of $3.85 to derive our 12-month price target of $100.”

Source: Wall Street research