EX-99.C.X 10 x75053taexv99wcwx.htm EXHIBIT 99.C.X EX-99.C.X
Exhibit (c)(x)
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ProjectMilosAvastinAdjuvantAnalystObservationsAugust2008

 


 

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AvastinAdjuvantAnalystObservationsResearchAnalystObservationsSelectedCommentaryonAdjuvantAvastinTarg etPrice08EAvastinEstimatedValueSelectedCommentsonAvastinAdjuvantBrokerSales(Excl.ofAvastinPre-OfferP ost-OfferAdjuvant)Adjuvant$95.00$100.00$2.660bnConfidenceinasuccessful“Lastnight,Genentechmovedupits timelineforfinalefficacyandsafetydata(07/14/08)(07/22/08)outcome,andseeshighfromNSABPC-08,aPh.IIItri alofFOLFOX ±Avastininadjuvantcoloncancer,probabilityfortrialendingfrom2010to2009.Thecompany’sreasonsf orrevisingitstimelinewere1)inNov/Dec08orNSABP’srateofdatacollection,2)rapidpatientenrollment,and3)ah igherthanMay/June09plannednumberofStageIIIpatientsvs.StageII.WeviewtherevisionoftheKatherineS.Kimtim elinepositively,predominatelybecausethetrialenrolledmore-than-expectedStageIIIpatients,asubsetinwhic hAvastinislikelytobemoreeffectivevs.StageIIpatients.Thisincreasesourconfidenceforasuccessfuloutcomes incemoreoftheappropriatepatientshavenowbeenenrolledintothestudy(weestimateatleast70-75%areStageIII). Additionally,thisincreasestheprobabilityofthetrialstoppinginthenexttwointerimlooks(Nov/Dec-08orMay/J un-09)”–May16,2008“...WebelieveGenentechshouldcommandmore,assumingtheAvastinadjuvantcoloncancerandTarc evaPh.IIItrialsaresuccessful.Basedontheseelements,wewouldnotbesurprisediftheofferpriceisraisedtoatle ast$95-$100/share(16%-22%premium)”–July22,2008n.a.n.a.n.a.CRC:$0.70/sharein“Webelievethestockwilllik elymaintainanabovemarketPEunlesstheongoing2011Eand$0.75/shareAvastinadjuvantcoloncancertrialfails—a ndafailurealmostcertainlywouldnotin2012E(EPS)beannounceduntil1H2010(butsuccesscouldbeannouncedearlie r)...ForecastsexcludeThemostimportantelementtoupsideisclearlytheongoingphase3trialofMarkSchoenebaumadj uvantprojectionsAvastininadjuvant(earlystage)coloncancer.Ifthetrialhitssometimeinthenext2years,webel ieveupsidefromcurrentlevelscouldapproximate~44%-52%.Ifsuccessful,our2011estimatewouldrisefrom$4.18to about$4.88,andwethinkthePEcansustaincurrentlevels(~20x).UpsidecouldbemuchmoredramaticiftheStreetadop tsthebeliefthatAvastinwillalsoworkinmuchbiggersettingofadjuvantbreastcancer(datain2012/13)”-May6,200 8$82.00$104.00$2.654bnn.a.(7/15/08)(8/13/08)“Wedon’tquestionRoche’sdeterminationtoownDNAoutrightbeca usedoingsowouldbringin...substantiallymore[revenue]ifAvastinispositiveinacolorectalcanceradjuvanttrial ”–February25,2008JasonZhangSource:FactSet,Bloomberg,EquityResearch2

 


 

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AvastinAdjuvantAnalystObservationsResearchAnalystObservationsSelectedCommentaryonAdjuvantAvastinTarg etPrice08EAvastinEstimatedValueSelectedCommentsonAvastinAdjuvantBrokerSales(Excl.ofAvastinPre-OfferP ost-OfferAdjuvant)Adjuvantn.a.n.a.$2.570bnn.a.“WebelieveAvastincouldbesuccessfullydevelopedintheadju vantsetting,whichisamulti-billiondollarmarketopportunitythatcouldprovidesignificantlongtermrevenuegr owthforthecompany...TherecentconfirmatoryAVADOdata,DouglasChowcombinedwiththepositivedatafromE2100su ggeststhatAvastincouldworkbetterinearlierstagesofbreastcancer.Recallthatinthesecond-linesetting,Avas tindidnotimproveprogression-freesurvival(PFS)inthePhaseIIItrial,AVF2119g.Yet,AvastinimprovedPFSinthe first-linesettinginbothE2100andAVADO,suggestingthatblockingangiogenesismightbemoreeffectiveinearlier stagesofbreastcancer.Laterstagesorbreastcancermightbemoredifficulttotreatbecauseovertime,theycouldde velopredundantangiogenicpathwaysthatcouldworkaroundAvastin.WecurrentlyestimateAvastininMBCwillincrea seannualAvastinsalesbyabout$700mmperyearoverathreeyearperiod.ApprovalofAvastininadjuvantcoloncancera ndadjuvantbreastcancercouldincreaseAvastinsalesbyanother$2.8B”–February25,2008$91.00$108.00$2.663bnC RC:$2.5bn(07/16/08)(08/15/08)Breast:$6.0bn“ThemostimportantupcomingeventforGenentechwillbefinaldataa nalysisofLung:$1.9bntheNSABPC-08studyinlate’09.WebelievethatmuchofGenentech’sfuturegrowthwilllargely dependonthistrial.IfAvastiniseffectiveinthissetting,itwillPost-offer,keptbasecaseboostinvestorconfid encethatitmayworkinotheradjuvantsettings(breastandprobabilityofCRClungcancer)whichcouldleadtosignifi cantmultipleexpansionandEPSupsideYaronWerber,M.D.intheout-years.Ontheflipside,webelievethatifthistri alfails,investorswillbeadjuvantsuccessat60%;disillusionedandthemultiplecouldcontract....Weconcedethatg ettinganedgeincreasedupsidecaseonthelikelihoodofsuccessisverytoughsincethisisalargestudywith2,700+pr obabilityofCRCpatientstestinganewwayofusingAvastinwithlittlehistoricaldatatohelpusadjuvantsuccessfro mquantifythelikelihoodofsuccess.Nevertheless,basedoninterimsafetyresults60%to75%andofwhichwerepresen tedattheAmericanSocietyofClinicalOncology(ASCO)NSCLCandbreastcancermeetinginJuneanddiscussionswithph ysicians,wearecomfortableattributingadjuvantsuccessfrom0%thisstudya60%likelihoodofsuccess”–July16,20 08to75%(factorsinbothto“Ourthirdvaluationtechniqueusestheprobability-adjustedupsidefromarriveattarge tprice)upcomingclinicaltrials...Weassignablended75%probabilitythatthese[adjuvant]trialswillbesuccess ful,giventhatRoche(whohasaccesstoallpreliminarydata)ischoosingtoacquireGenentechaheadofallthisclinic aldata.Thisisabullishmove,inourview”–August14,2008Source:FactSet,Bloomberg,EquityResearch3

 


 

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AvastinAdjuvantAnalystObservationsResearchAnalystObservations(cont’d)SelectedCommentaryonAdjuvantAva stinTargetPrice08EAvastinEstimatedValueSelectedCommentsonAvastinAdjuvantBrokerSales(Excl.ofAvastinPr e-OfferPost-OfferAdjuvant)Adjuvantn.a.n.a.$2.650bn(U.S.)Total:$4.550bnrevenue“Becausethestudywasnoth alted,wecalculatethatthehazardratioforAvastinby2012atthetimeoftheanalysiscouldhavebeenanywherefrom0. 69(Avastinhighlyefficacious)to1.07(Avastinquiteharmful).Genentechalsoindicatedthatfinalresultsfromth isstudyarelikelyin2009,aviewthatisconsistentwithourColon:$1.240bnrevenuestatisticalsimulations.While near-termnewsflow(ASCO,Q2earnings)couldEricSchmidt,Ph.D.by2012pressureshares,webelievetherisk/reward profileofowningDNAsharesintodatafromNSABP-C08ishighlypositive”–May16,2008Breast:$1.204bnrevenueby201 2“AlthoughAvastinsalesareexperiencingrenewedgrowthinbreastcancer,webelievethedrug’sopportunityinadju vantcancersremainsthekeydeterminantofGenentech’slonger-termgrowth,withdataexpectedin2008/09...Successf orLung:$2.046bnrevenueAvastininadjuvantcoloncancer(dataexpectedinlate2008or2009)coulddriveby2012dram aticupwardrevisionstoGenentech’searningsandgrowthrates.Whileitisimpossibletohaveconfidenceintheoutco meofthistrial,webelievetherisk/rewardofowningthesharesintothisbinaryeventishighlyfavorable”–July15,2 008$82.00$98.00$2.660bnn.a.“Webelievethemostimportanttrialistheadjuvantcolorectalcancertrialswhich(0 7/14/08)(07/21/08)openupthepotentialforAvastinuseinmultipleadjuvantsettingsthatcoulddeliverseveralbi lliondollarsofgrowth”–March16,2008“IntermsofthelongtermthesisforGenentech,2009willbeacriticallyimpor tantMichaelAberman,M.D.yearwiththefinalresultsoftheCALGB-C08trialofAvastininadjuvantcolorectalcancer expected.Likemostinvestors,webelievepositivedatafromthattrialwilllikelydrivesignificantupside.Howeve r,wecautionthatafailedtrialcouldprovidesignificantdownsideasitwouldlikelyleadtomultiplecontractionfr omcurrentlevels”-June26,2008“Investorswillnowspeculatewhetherornotthisisafairprice,comparingthepremi umtopriorbiotechacquisitionsandwonderinghowmuchRocheispayingforAvastin’sadjuvantopportunity...Wethinka Rocheofferatthestock’salltimehighwilldifficultforminorityshareholderstoreject.Whilesomeinvestorsmigh tpushtodelayadecisionuntilafterthe4QlookattheAvastinadjuvantcolorectalcancertrial,weanticipateavotea ndapprovalpriortothosedata(recallwedonotexpectdatauntil2009)”–July21,2008Source:FactSet,Bloomberg,Eq uityResearch4

 


 

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AvastinAdjuvantAnalystObservationsResearchAnalystObservationsSelectedCommentaryonAdjuvantAvastinTarg etPrice08EAvastinEstimatedValueSelectedCommentsonAvastinAdjuvantBrokerSales(Excl.ofAvastinPre-OfferP ost-OfferAdjuvant)Adjuvant$85.00$97.00$2.625bn(U.S.)CRC:$13.84/share“Thekeyeventthatcoulddrivestocku psideisdatafromtheongoingphase3trialonAvastinintheadjuvant(earlystage)coloncancersetting.Dataaredue( 07/14/08)(07/24/08)Breast:$10.97/sharesometimebetweenlate2008and2009.Althoughtheoutcomeisdifficultto Lung:$7.16/sharepredict,ourbiasispositive.IfAvastinworksintheadjuvantsetting,weestimatethereisatleas t$30ofstockupside(~40%+).WeexpectinvestorswillpriceinnotHasapositivetrialonlyuptakeinadjuvantcolonca ncer,butsomeprobabilityAvastinwillworkinthisMarkSchoenebaumoutcomebias.Believessettinginlungandbreas tcanceraswell.Ifthetrialisnegativeinlate2009,wethatifadjuvantcolonsuspectthePEwillcontractatthattime to14-16x2010EPSestimates.Asareminder,ifthetrialisnegative,datawillalmostcertainlynotbereleasedbefore cancerisapproved,willlate2009,whichmeansinvestorsareprotectedfrombadnewsthisyear”–Juneachieve100%oft he26,2008$13.84upside,anda50%probabilityofachievingthe“Longerterm(2009+),sustainableAvastingrowthdep endslargelyontheongoingbreastandlungupsideadjuvantcoloncancertrial(databyYE09),whichwethinkismorelik elytoworkthannot”–July14,2008Forecastsexclude“KeyriskstoDNAincludeless-than-expecteduptakeinbreastan dlungcancersadjuvantprojectionsin2008,adjuvantfailurebeforemergercompletion,andincompletionofmerger. TheprimaryrisktoDNAisthatAvastinfailsintheadjuvantsetting(dataexpectedbylate2009)aheadoffinalization ofthemerger.Ifthisoccurs,thestockcouldfalltolevelsinlinewithRoche’sinitialofferingpriceof$89/share”– July21,2008$88.00n.a.$3.000bnCRC:$1+bnby2009“WeestimatethepenetrationofAvastinisclosetopeakin2007ata bout70%for(07/15/08)first-line,andabout35%forsecond-/third-linetherapy.FuturegrowthwillBelieveinahig hpotentialdependmostlyonefficacyinadjuvantCRCandincombinationtherapywithotherofAvastininadjuvanttarg etedagents,suchasErbituxandTarceva”–March10,2008CRCandothercancersMostinvestorsviewthePhase3trialofA vastininadjuvantcolorectalcancerMay-KinHo,Ph.D.(CRC)with$1+bnpotentialtobethekeystudythatcansignific antlyimprovethegrowthrateofAvastin.WhileweagreewiththehighpotentialofAvastininadjuvantCRC,webelievet hatthepotentialinothercancers,suchasglioblastoma(GBM),ovariancancerandprostatecancerisunderappreciat ed.Thesethreeindicationshaveacombinedsalespotentialofabout$1.2bn”–May21,2008Source:FactSet,Bloomberg         ,EquityResearch5

 


 

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AvastinAdjuvantAnalystObservationsResearchAnalystObservations(cont’d)SelectedCommentaryonAdjuvantAva stinTargetPrice08EAvastinEstimatedValueSelectedCommentsonAvastinAdjuvantBrokerSales(Excl.ofAvastinPr e-OfferPost-OfferAdjuvant)Adjuvant$78.00$95.00$2.705bnn.a.“Wecontinuetoharborconcernsregardinglong-t ermEPSgrowthpotentialfor(07/15/08)(07/21/08)DNA,andasuccessfulNSABP-C08trial(AvastinforadjuvantCRC)o utcomeiskeytochangingourview.Webelievethistrial’soutcomeremainspivotaltoacceleratingEPSgrowthbeyondo ur5-year13%CAGRestimate.ThenextAdamA.Walsh,M.D.interimanalysiswilloccurin4Q08andthenevery6monthsther eafter.WearelessoptimisticthantheStreetthattherecentlyapprovedAvastinmetastaticbreastcancer(mBC)indi cationcanre-acceleratetheAvastinfranchiseinameaningfulway,leadingtosustainedEPSoutperformance”–July1 5,2008“Weseelimitedadditionalpremiumaboveoffer:WhilewebelieveGenentechhasthepotentialtofetchaslightl yhigherpremium,thepre-existinguniquerelationshipbetweenRocheandGenentechcoupledwithRoche’sfirmpositi ononvaluation,suggesttousthatanyfinalpremiumisunlikelytobegreaterthat~10%higherthanthecurrentoffer,o r~$100...RocheindicatedthatithasassumedasolidprobabilityofsuccessintheadjuvantCRCtrial,whichisincluded inthetransactionvaluation”–July21,2008$100.00$100.00n.a.70%probabilityof“Themostimportantofthese[upc omingresults]isAvastininadjuvantcolon,(07/14/08)(08/13/08)adjuvantCRCsuccesswhichwethinkhasa~70%prob abilityofsuccesswithimplicationsforAvastininadjuvantbreastandlung”–July21,2008GeoffreyMeachamSource: FactSet,Bloomberg,EquityResearch6

 


 

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AvastinAdjuvantAnalystObservationsResearchAnalystObservations(cont’d)SelectedCommentaryonAdjuvantAva stinTargetPrice08EAvastinEstimatedValueSelectedCommentsonAvastinAdjuvantBrokerSales(Excl.ofAvastinPr e-OfferPost-OfferAdjuvant)Adjuvant$75.00$105.00$2.701bnn.a.“NSABPpresentedupdateddatafromtheC-08adju vantCRCtrialofAvastin+(07/15/08)(08/13/08)FOLFOXinadditiontoupdatedefficacydatafromthepredecessorC-0 7FOLFOXadjuvantstudy.Keypointsincludedalackof5-yearsurvivalbenefitinC-07despiteimproved3-yeardisease freesurvival,worseoutcomepost-progressioninpatientsreceivingprioradjuvantoxaliplatin,imbalancesinche motherapythatcouldJimBirchenough,M.D.confoundC-08dataanalysisandgreaterdeaths(17vs14)inpatientstreat edwithAvastin+FOLFOX.WhilegreaterchemoexposureinAvastintreatedpatientscouldbenefitefficacyinC-08,web elieveaforementionedpointsincreaseregulatoryrisk”–June2,2008“Rochemanagementhaslongstatedthattheadva ntagesofthe‘collegiateapproach’totheRochefamilyoutweighedthelogisticsdifficulties.Inparticular,itmea ntthatnegotiationwithpotentialpartnerswaseasierasRochecoulddemonstrateatrackrecordofnotbuyingoutsucc essfulpartners.Itmaybethatwithsomeimportantdatacominguplaterintheyear(adjuvantcolorectalcancer24-mon thinterimreview)thisrepresentedthebesttimetoputforwardthistransactionwithouttheprospectofthelengthof timetakenbeginningtoencompassnewdatathatmightmakethevariousboardsinsidersforaprotractedlengthoftime. ThiscouldbethecaseifgoodAvastindatawasnotpublisheduntilASCO2009”–July21,2008$94.00$110.00$2.655bn(U. S.)CRC:> $1bnbasedon“Longer-term,ourbiascontinuestobepositivethatAvastinhasaroleinearly(07/14/08)(08/11/08)DC F(07/14/08)adjuvantstagecancers(wehaveoutlinedtherationalinearliernotes)andU.S.Total:> $5bnefficacyherewouldleadtoamajorvaluationstepupforDNA.Whilethereis(07/14/08and07/21/08)anotheranaly sisin4Qfromtheongoingadjuvantcolorectalcancertrial(NSABPC-08)whichcouldleadtoanearlyterminationofthe trialduetoStevenHarr,M.D.overwhelmingefficacy,wethinkapositiveresultismorelikelyduringoneoftheBeliev emorelikelytotwofinallooksatthistrialin2009(April/MayandOctober/November).Thatsaid,haveapositiveresu ltinwemustadmitthatthistrialisrelativelyhigh-risktobeginwith,andtryingtoget2009ourhandsaroundtheexac ttimingofthefinalresultisarelativelyfruitlesseffort”–July14,2008Assumingadjuvant“Roche’s$89/shareoff erforGenentechisinadequate,inourview,underalmostsuccessadds> $25inanyreasonablebusinessscenario(includingifAvastinfailsintheadjuvantvaluepershare,yieldingsetting ),andat23xour2009EdilutedEPSof3.82,islessthantheaveragetradingmultipleoflargecapbiotechs...[Genentech’ sdrugs]stillhavemeaningfulafairvalueof$131perpotentialgrowth(e.g.Avastininadjuvantcancersrepresents $5bnpotentialsharenewopportunitywithdatainlate2008or2009)”–July21,2008“Ouranalysissuggestsfairvaluef orDNAwillexceed$125ifAvastinworksin80%probabilityofadjuvantcancers,andRochemaynotwanttotaketheriskth atdataareavailableAvastinworkinginbeforeclosing.Roche’sownershipstructuremakesusingequitydifficult,a ndadjuvantcancersGenentechmaybetooexpensiveforanallcashbidifadjuvantworks(Rochecanlikelygetfinancing athighervaluation,butwillbemoreexpensive).”–August11,2008Source:FactSet,Bloomberg,EquityResearch7

 


 

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AvastinAdjuvantAnalystObservationsResearchAnalystObservations(cont’d)SelectedCommentaryonAdjuvantAva stinTargetPrice08EAvastinEstimatedValueSelectedCommentsonAvastinAdjuvantBrokerSales(Excl.ofAvastinPr e-OfferPost-OfferAdjuvant)Adjuvant$76.00$95.00$2.652bnCRC:$1.0bnrevenueby“However,inviewoftheasymmet ricbinaryupsidepotentialrelatedtotheNSABP(07/15/08)(08/13/08)2011andAVANTcolorectalcanceradjuvanttri alsthatmighthaveinterimresultsinthisyearleadingtoastockpriceincrease(seeournoteson2/14and2/25),weare valuingDNAatapremium”–July14,2008AlexTo“Avastin’sadjuvantcolorectaltrialcouldsuccessfullyconcludefol lowingoneoftheinterimanalyses.Thenextinterimanalysisisscheduledinfourthquarter2008theneverysixmonths thereafter”–July21,2008$94.00$96.00$2.832bn65%probabilityofpositive(07/15/08)(07/22/08)adjuvantAvast inCRC,“Wehavetakenourfreecashflowestimatesthrough2012andaddedseveralassumptions,including...a65%probab ilityofpositivedataforAvastininlungandbreastresultsadjuvantcolon,lungandbreaststudies”–July22,2008Th omasWei,Sr.$88.00$105.00$2.832bnn.a.“Overall,webelievetheKRASdatafurtherestablishAvastinasthetherapy of(07/15/08)(08/13/08)choiceinthefirst-linemCRCsetting,andpotentiallyothertumortypes.WebelieveAvasti n’sbroadactivityinbothKRASwild-typeandmutatedpatientswillbeanimportantdifferentiatingfactorforthedru gvs.eitherErbituxorVectibix,BretHolley,Ph.Dshouldthesedrugseventuallybeapprovedfor1st-linemCRCintheU         .S.ThiswouldalsobeanimportantadvantageforAvastininadjuvantcolorectalcancer,inourview,ifeitherErbitux orVectibixareapprovedinthissettingoverthelong-term”–July15,2008“WebelieveRocheisattemptingtocaptureD NA’ssignificantfuturegrowthonthecheap.WebelieveDNAisatthebeginningofanupsideinflectionpoint,drivenby Avastin’ssuccessfullaunchformBCandourexpectationforthedrug’ssuccessinadjuvantCRC,and,basedonthis,web elievea25-35%premiumforDNA’soutstandingshareswouldbeminimallyacceptable($102-110/share)”–July21,2008 Source:FactSet,Bloomberg,EquityResearch8

 


 

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AvastinAdjuvantAnalystObservationsResearchAnalystObservations(cont’d)SelectedCommentaryonAdjuvantAva stinTargetPrice08EAvastinEstimatedValueSelectedCommentsonAvastinAdjuvantBrokerSales(Excl.ofAvastinPr e-OfferPost-OfferAdjuvant)Adjuvant$90.00$90.00$2.723bn(U.S.)CRC:$2.20/share,or“WebelieveDNAisreadyto showrenewedearningsgrowthaidedbyAvastin(07/15/08)(08/13/08)$2.3bn(basedonDCF)growthinmBCinthenearter mandbytheadjuvantCRCindicationinthelongterm.MuchofthepotentialupsidefromtheadjuvantCRCindicationisno tBelieveahighprobabilityfactoredintoourfinancialmodel.WelookforwardtothepresentationoftheMichaelG.Ki ng,Jr.theadjuvantsaleswillRIBBON-Itrialdatalaterthisyear,alongwiththeplannedsBLAsubmissionsforoccurt heuseofAvastinforthetreatmentofrenalcellcancerandglioblastomamultiformeandRituxanforearly-stagerheum atoidarthritisduring2H08”–July15,Forecastsexclude2008adjuvantprojections“DNAexpectsAvastingrowthinth eneartermtobedrivenprimarilybybreastandlungindications.TheC-08adjuvantCRCtrialisexpectedtobecomplete din2009.However,DNAanticipatesthenextefficacyanalysisin4Q08;recallthatsafetydatawasalreadypresentedb ytheNSABPattherecentASCOmeeting.AlsorecallthatadjuvantCRCisthenextbigvaluedriverforDNAandcouldpositi velyimpactsalesasearlyas2009”–July21,2008$92.00$115.00$2.660bn$20.00/share(07/15/08)(08/07/08)“Wewou ldexpectRochetocounterwithahigherbid,althoughthetimingofthisCRC:$1.2bnbidisnotclear.However,webeliev eitwouldbesoonerthanlater,inanattempttofullycapitalizeonapositiveoutcomeintheadjuvantAvastinC-08tria l,which50%probabilityofwebelieve,hasapproximatelya50%probabilityofsuccess”–August13,2008MagedShenoud aadjuvantCRCtrialsuccess$72.50n.a.$2.631bnn.a.“WebelieveDNAsharescouldmaintainmomentumgoingintoanexp ected(06/02/08)interimlookattheAVANTandC-08trialsevaluatingAvastininanadjuvantcolorectalcancersettin g.Admittedly,wehavenofeelforwhattoexpectfromthislookasweremainonthesidelines.Shouldthiseventcomeandp asswithoutGeorgeFarmer,Ph.D.incident,DNAsharescouldsellofffromnewyearhighsweexpecttobehitthisweek.Fu turesalesofAvastinasadjuvanttreatmentforCRCarenotreflectedinourmodelatthistime”–February25,2008“Safe tydatafromtheadjuvantcolorectalcancertrial,NSABPC-08,canonlybeanegativeforDNAshares,inourview,sincee fficacydatawillnotbeshared.Weexpectanysafetyissue,nomatterhownegligible,willraiseconcernsregardingpo tentialuseofAvastinintheadjuvantsetting.Efficacydatafromthisstudymaynotbematureuntil2010.Nevertheles s,withrevenuefromAvastinsalesnotfactoredinourorotherStreetmodelsatthistime,webelievethisoverhangshou ldliftoncethisdataisreleased”–May14,2008Source:FactSet,Bloomberg,EquityResearch9

 


 

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AvastinAdjuvantAnalystObservationsOtherMediaObservationsSelectedCommentaryonAvastinAdjuvantMediaSour ceTitleofArticleDateofArticleSelectedCommentaryGenentech’sAvastindata08/07/08“Itcouldbethemostimport antbinaryeventinhistoryofbiotech,”saidCowenloomslargeandCo.LLCanalystEricSchmidt.Schmidtsaidbreakthr oughresults—investigatorshopetheAvastin-chemocombinationshowsatleasta25%reductioninriskofrelapseover chemoalone—couldgiveinvestorshopeforAvastinasanadjuvanttreatmentacrossseveraltypesofcancer,perhapsad ding$30billionto$50billiontoAlexLashGenentech’smarketcap.“ThereisalwaysariskthatGenentechwouldnotbem otivatedtosignamergerpriortotheannouncementoftrialresultsunlesstheofferpriceisreallyattractive,”wrot eLehmanBrothersInc.’sEvrenErgininariskarbitragereportfromJuly30.”InCostlyCancerDrug,07/06/08“It’shig hbecauseGenentechcanpriceithigh,”’hesaid,notingthatAvastin’sHopeandaDilemmapricewasinlinewiththatofs omeothercancerdrugs.Despitethecompany’sresearchanddevelopmentcosts,Mr.Schmidtsaid,“Genentechisoneoft heGinaKolataandmostprofitableofpharmaceuticalandbiotechnologycompanies.”AndrewPollackGenentechanalys tsweigh04/11/08“’Avastinsaleswere$600million,$23millionshortofourestimate,andclearlyinonAvastindidno tgetaboostfromtherecentbreastcancerapproval,’wrotetheRBCanalystsinaresearchnote...‘Positiveresultswo uldopenasignificantnewblockbustermarketandlikelyresultinsignificantmultipleexpansionasValBrickatesKe nnedyconfidenceincreasesinotheradjuvantusesofAvastin,’theRBCanalystssaid”Genentechreportsjumpin04/11 /08“TheybeatonthebottomlinebutAvastinwasamiss,”saidJasonKantor,afirst-quarterearningsonbiotechequiti esanalystwithRBCCapitalMarkets,whopredicted$622millionstrongsalesofcancer(euro391.81million)inAvasti nsales.“ThisisastockwhichtradesonAvastinsentiment.”drugsMarcusWholsenSource:Brunswick10

 


 

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AvastinAdjuvantAnalystObservationsOtherMediaObservations(cont’d)SelectedCommentaryonAvastinAdjuvantM ediaSourceTitleofArticleDateofArticleSelectedCommentaryDatashowpotentialgrowth05/16/08““Wefoundsever alreasonstolikeGenentechaheadofASCO,”JPMorganforGenentech’sAvastinanalystGeoffMeachamsaidinaresearch note.“Thisisdriveninpartfromthelargerpercentageofstage3patientsenrolled,whichwebelievebodeswellforth epotentialsuccessofAvastinasthesepatientshavemoreseverediseasethatshouldbenefitfromAvastin,”Meachams aid.BillBerkrot“Safetyisparticularlycriticalinthissettingaspatientsareabletobepotentiallycuredofthei rdisease,”saidRodman&RenshawanalystMichaelKing.“Theseresultsareencouraginggiventhatthesafetybarishig herforearlierstagecancer.Basedonthisdataitappearsthatsafetyisnotahurdleandwenowlookforwardtowardeffi cacydata,”[LazardCapitalMarketsanalystMatthew]Osbornesaidinaresearchnote.“Clearlyefficacyisthecritic alquestionhere,”agreedSanfordBernsteinanalystGeoffreyPorges.“Butitwasreassuringtoseethattheabstractd idnotrevealanysignificantnewsafetyconcernsthatwouldlimitAvastin’spotentialintheadjuvantsetting.”“Whi letheclinicalneedisgreatinthispatientpopulationandAvastinappearsapprovablebasedontheresults,wewouldc haracterizethebenefitasmodest,”hesaidoftheearlydata.”JPMorganexpects02/12/08“AnalystGeoffreyMeacham, inacallwithinvestors,saidthereisa50percenteventualbreastcancerchancetheFDAwillsendthecompanyanapprov ableletter,orinformationapprovalforGenentech’srequest,followingtheFeb.23decision.Avastin,withsomedel aysThekeyquestion,Meachamsaid,iswhethertheFDAwillwantbetterresultsStaffWriteronthedrug’sabilitytoimp rovetheoverallsurvivalrateofpatients.‘Theconclusionhereisbasicallythereisahighlikelihoodofanapprovab leletter,’hesaid.‘Butwe’restillpointingtoagoodrisk-rewardprofilegoingintothePDUFA(decision)date.’”So urce:Brunswick11