7. PENSION AND OTHER POSTRETIREMENT BENEFITS

The company has several defined benefit pension plans and postretirement health care and life insurance plans covering its U.S. employees and employees in certain foreign countries. The company uses an October 31 measurement date for these plans.

The components of net periodic pension cost and the assumptions related to the cost consisted of the following in millions of dollars and in percents:


	2015		2014		2013

Pensions
Service cost	$	282	$	244	$	273
Interest cost		474		480		439
Expected return on plan assets		(769)		(776)		(778)
Amortization of actuarial loss		223		177		265
Amortization of prior service cost		25		25		12
Other postemployment benefits		1		5
Settlements/curtailments		11		9		2
Net cost	$	247	$	164	$	213
Weighted-average assumptions
Discount rates		4.0%		4.5%		3.8%
Rate of compensation increase		3.8%		3.8%		3.9%
Expected long-term rates of return		7.3%		7.5%		7.8%

The components of net periodic postretirement benefits cost and the assumptions related to the cost consisted of the following in millions of dollars and in percents:


	2015		2014		2013

Health care and life insurance
Service cost	$	46	$	44	$	58
Interest cost		259		267		255
Expected return on plan assets		(55)		(72)		(84)
Amortization of actuarial loss		91		33		141
Amortization of prior service credit		(77)		(3)		(8)
Settlements/curtailments		1		(1)
Net cost	$	265	$	268	$	362
Weighted-average assumptions
Discount rates		4.2%		4.7%		3.8%
Expected long-term rates of return		7.0%		7.2%		7.5%

The previous pension cost in net income and other changes in plan assets and benefit obligations in other comprehensive income in millions of dollars were as follows:


	2015		2014		2013

Pensions
Net cost	$	247	$	164	$	213
Retirement benefit adjustments included in other comprehensive (income) loss:
Net actuarial (gain) loss		361		940		(1,481)
Prior service (credit) cost		66				(26)
Amortization of actuarial loss		(223)		(177)		(265)
Amortization of prior service cost		(25)		(25)		(12)
Settlements/curtailments		(11)		(9)		(2)
Total (gain) loss recognized in other comprehensive (income) loss		168		729		(1,786)
Total recognized in comprehensive (income) loss	$	415	$	893	$	(1,573)

The previous postretirement benefits cost in net income and other changes in plan assets and benefit obligations in other comprehensive income in millions of dollars were as follows:


	2015		2014		2013

Health care and life insurance
Net cost	$	265	$	268	$	362
Retirement benefit adjustments included in other comprehensive (income) loss:
Net actuarial (gain) loss		(141)		748		(1,165)
Prior service credit		(3)		(370)		(2)
Amortization of actuarial loss		(91)		(33)		(141)
Amortization of prior service credit		77		3		8
Settlements/curtailments		(2)		1
Total (gain) loss recognized in other comprehensive (income) loss		(160)		349		(1,300)
Total recognized in comprehensive (income) loss	$	105	$	617	$	(938)

The benefit plan obligations, funded status and the assumptions related to the obligations at October 31 in millions of dollars follow:


					Health Care
					and
	Pensions				Life Insurance
	2015		2014		2015		2014


Change in benefit obligations
Beginning of year balance	$	(12,190)	$	(10,968)	$	(6,304)	$	(5,926)
Service cost		(282)		(244)		(46)		(44)
Interest cost		(474)		(480)		(259)		(267)
Actuarial gain (loss)		(174)		(1,306)		172		(757)
Amendments		(66)				3		370
Benefits paid		781		675		344		336
Health care subsidies						(20)		(22)
Other postemployment benefits		(1)		(5)
Settlements/curtailments		2		2		1
Foreign exchange and other		218		136		25		6
End of year balance		(12,186)		(12,190)		(6,084)		(6,304)

Change in plan assets (fair value)
Beginning of year balance		11,447		11,008		957		1,157
Actual return on plan assets		582		1,132		24		81
Employer contribution		83		87		48		51
Benefits paid		(781)		(675)		(344)		(336)
Settlements/curtailments		(2)		(2)
Foreign exchange and other		(165)		(103)		4		4
End of year balance		11,164		11,447		689		957
Funded status	$	(1,022)	$	(743)	$	(5,395)	$	(5,347)

Weighted-average assumptions
Discount rates		4.1%		4.0%		4.3%		4.2%
Rate of compensation increase		3.8%		3.8%

In the fourth quarter of 2015, the company decided to transition Medicare eligible wage and certain Medicare eligible salaried retirees to a Medicare Advantage plan offered by a private insurance company. This transition, which will take effect in January 2016, will not affect the participants’ level of benefits and is expected to result in future cost savings for the company.

In the fourth quarter of 2015 and 2014, the company updated mortality assumptions based on tables issued by the Society of Actuaries.

For Medicare eligible salaried retirees that primarily retire after July 1, 1993 and are eligible for postretirement medical benefits, the company’s postretirement benefit plan consists of annual Retiree Medical Credits (RMCs). The RMC is a monetary amount provided to the retirees annually to assist with their medical costs. In October 2014, the RMC plan was modified to change the annual cost sharing provisions. Beginning in 2015, the annual RMC amount did not increase and the rate of future changes will continue to be set each year by the company.

The amounts recognized at October 31 in millions of dollars consist of the following:


					Health Care
					and
	Pensions				Life Insurance
	2015		2014		2015		2014


Amounts recognized in balance sheet
Noncurrent asset	$	216	$	262
Current liability		(44)		(51)	$	(20)	$	(21)
Noncurrent liability		(1,194)		(954)		(5,375)		(5,326)
Total	$	(1,022)	$	(743)	$	(5,395)	$	(5,347)
Amounts recognized in accumulated other comprehensive income – pretax
Net actuarial loss	$	4,393	$	4,266	$	1,442	$	1,675
Prior service cost (credit)		83		42		(334)		(407)
Total	$	4,476	$	4,308	$	1,108	$	1,268

The total accumulated benefit obligations for all pension plans at October 31, 2015 and 2014 was $11,508 million and $11,425 million, respectively.

The accumulated benefit obligations and fair value of plan assets for pension plans with accumulated benefit obligations in excess of plan assets were $7,254 million and $6,669 million, respectively, at October 31, 2015 and $1,381 million and $916 million, respectively, at October 31, 2014. The projected benefit obligations and fair value of plan assets for pension plans with projected benefit obligations in excess of plan assets were $8,196 million and $6,958 million, respectively, at October 31, 2015 and $8,213 million and $7,208 million, respectively, at October 31, 2014.

The amounts in accumulated other comprehensive income that are expected to be amortized as net expense (income) during fiscal 2016 in millions of dollars follow:


			Health Care
			and
	Pensions		Life Insurance


Net actuarial loss	$	208	$	75
Prior service cost (credit)		16		(78)
Total	$	224	$	(3)

Actuarial gains and losses are recorded in accumulated other comprehensive income (loss). To the extent unamortized gains and losses exceed 10% of the higher of the market-related value of assets or the benefit obligation, the excess is amortized as a component of net periodic cost over the remaining service period of the active participants. For plans in which all or almost all of the plan’s participants are inactive, the amortization period is the remaining life expectancy of the inactive participants.

The company expects to contribute approximately $73 million to its pension plans and approximately $25 million to its health care and life insurance plans in 2016, which are primarily direct benefit payments for unfunded plans.

The benefits expected to be paid from the benefit plans, which reflect expected future years of service, are as follows in millions of dollars:


			Health Care
			and
	Pensions		Life Insurance*


2016	$	697	$	317
2017		688		333
2018		685		339
2019		690		342
2020		694		344
2021 to 2025		3,484		1,766

*Net of prescription drug group benefit subsidy under Medicare Part D.

The annual rates of increase in the per capita cost of covered health care benefits (the health care cost trend rates) used to determine accumulated postretirement benefit obligations were based on the trends for medical and prescription drug claims for pre- and post-65 age groups due to the effects of Medicare. At October 31, 2015, the weighted-average composite trend rates for these obligations were assumed to be a .8 percent increase from 2015 to 2016, followed by an increase of 7.9 percent from 2016 to 2017, gradually decreasing to 4.8 percent from 2024 to 2025 and all future years. The small estimated increase from 2015 to 2016 resulted from the transition to the Medicare Advantage plan in January 2016. The obligations at October 31, 2014 and the cost in 2015 assumed a 6.2 percent increase from 2014 to 2015, gradually decreasing to 5.0 percent from 2022 to 2023 and all future years. An increase of one percentage point in the assumed health care cost trend rate would increase the accumulated postretirement benefit obligations by $807 million and the aggregate of service and interest cost component of net periodic postretirement benefits cost for the year by $45 million. A decrease of one percentage point would decrease the obligations by $619 million and the cost by $34 million.

The discount rate assumptions used to determine the postretirement obligations at October 31, 2015 and 2014 were based on hypothetical AA yield curves represented by a series of annualized individual discount rates. These discount rates represent the rates at which the company’s benefit obligations could effectively be settled at the October 31 measurement dates.

Beginning in 2016, the company will change the method used to estimate the service and interest cost components of the net periodic pension and other postretirement benefit costs. The new method uses the spot yield curve approach to estimate the service and interest costs by applying the specific spot rates along the yield curve used to determine the benefit obligations to relevant projected cash outflows. Previously, those costs were determined using a single weighted-average discount rate. The change does not affect the measurement of the total benefit obligations as the change in service and interest costs offsets in the actuarial gains and losses recorded in other comprehensive income. The new method provides a more precise measure of interest and service costs by improving the correlation between the projected benefit cash flows and the discrete spot yield curve rates. The company will account for this change as a change in estimate prospectively beginning in the first quarter of 2016. See “Postretirement Benefit Obligations” in Critical Accounting Policies for additional details.

Fair value measurement levels in the following tables are defined in Note 26.

The fair values of the pension plan assets at October 31, 2015 follow in millions of dollars:


	Total		Level 1		Level 2

Cash and short-term investments	$	867	$	378	$	489
Equity:
U.S. equity securities and funds		3,075		3,053		22
International equity securities		1,802		1,781		21
Fixed Income:
Government and agency securities		386		197		189
Corporate debt securities		751		1		750
Mortgage-backed securities		83				83
Fixed income funds		26		26
Real estate		133		130		3
Derivative contracts - assets*		190		25		165
Derivative contracts - liabilities**		(26)		(4)		(22)
Receivables, payables and other		4		3		1
Securities lending collateral		745		92		653
Securities lending liability		(745)		(92)		(653)
Securities sold short		(470)		(466)		(4)
Total of Level 1 and Level 2 assets		6,821	$	5,124	$	1,697
Investments at net asset value***:
Short-term investments		195
U.S. equity funds		33
International equity funds		540
Corporate debt funds		26
Fixed income funds		495
Real estate		501
Hedge funds		625
Private equity/venture capital		1,604
Other investments		324
Total net assets	$	11,164

* Includes contracts for interest rates of $137 million, foreign currency of $17 million, equity of $30 million and other of $6 million.

** Includes contracts for interest rates of $7 million, foreign currency of $15 million and other of $4 million.

*** Investments are measured at fair value using the net asset value per share practical expedient, and therefore, are not classified in the fair value hierarchy.

The fair values of the health care assets at October 31, 2015 follow in millions of dollars:


	Total		Level 1		Level 2

Cash and short-term investments	$	35	$	25	$	10
Equity:
U.S. equity securities and funds		229		229
International equity securities		39		39
Fixed Income:
Government and agency securities		84		78		6
Corporate debt securities		35				35
Mortgage-backed securities		13				13
Fixed income funds		1		1
Real estate		4		4
Derivative contracts - assets*		4		1		3
Receivables, payables and other		1		1
Securities lending collateral		65		9		56
Securities lending liability		(65)		(9)		(56)
Securities sold short		(10)		(10)
Total of Level 1 and Level 2 assets		435	$	368	$	67
Investments at net asset value**:
Short-term investments		4
International equity funds		103
Fixed income funds		47
Real estate funds		10
Hedge funds		50
Private equity/venture capital		34
Other investments		6
Total net assets	$	689

* Includes contracts for interest rates of $2 million, foreign currency of $1 million and equity of $1 million.

** Investments are measured at fair value using the net asset value per share practical expedient, and therefore, are not classified in the fair value hierarchy.

The fair values of the pension plan assets at October 31, 2014 follow in millions of dollars:


	Total		Level 1		Level 2

Cash and short-term investments	$	977	$	426	$	551
Equity:
U.S. equity securities and funds		3,088		3,088
International equity securities and funds		2,046		2,046
Fixed Income:
Government and agency securities		434		412		22
Corporate debt securities		322		1		321
Mortgage-backed securities		96		11		85
Fixed income funds		127		127
Real estate		132		132
Derivative contracts - assets*		322		14		308
Derivative contracts - liabilities**		(39)		(9)		(30)
Receivables, payables and other		1				1
Securities lending collateral		847				847
Securities lending liability		(847)				(847)
Securities sold short		(477)		(477)
Total of Level 1 and Level 2 assets		7,029	$	5,771	$	1,258
Investments at net asset value***:
Short-term investments		108
U.S. equity funds		38
International equity funds		382
Fixed income funds		957
Real estate funds		442
Hedge funds		593
Private equity/venture capital		1,578
Other investments		320
Total net assets	$	11,447

* Includes contracts for interest rates of $246 million, foreign currency of $61 million, equity of $11 million and other of $4 million.

** Includes contracts for interest rates of $6 million, foreign currency of $25 million and other of $8 million.

*** Investments are measured at fair value using the net asset value per share practical expedient, and therefore, are not classified in the fair value hierarchy.

The fair values of the health care assets at October 31, 2014 follow in millions of dollars:


	Total		Level 1		Level 2

Cash and short-term investments	$	52	$	37	$	15
Equity:
U.S. equity securities and funds		310		310
International equity securities		57		57
Fixed Income:
Government and agency securities		164		159		5
Corporate debt securities		33				33
Mortgage-backed securities		13				13
Fixed income funds		1		1
Real estate		5		5
Derivative contracts - assets*		5				5
Derivative contracts - liabilities**		(1)				(1)
Receivables, payables and other		1		1
Securities lending collateral		126				126
Securities lending liability		(126)				(126)
Securities sold short		(13)		(13)
Total of Level 1 and Level 2 assets		627	$	557	$	70
Investments at net asset value***:
Short-term investments		3
International equity funds		121
Fixed income funds		69
Real estate funds		12
Hedge funds		72
Private equity/venture capital		44
Other investments		9
Total net assets	$	957

* Includes contracts for interest rates of $3 million and foreign currency of $2 million.

** Includes contracts for foreign currency of $1 million.

*** Investments are measured at fair value using the net asset value per share practical expedient, and therefore, are not classified in the fair value hierarchy.

Fair values are determined as follows:

Cash and Short-Term Investments – Includes accounts that are valued based on the account value, which approximates fair value, and investment funds that are valued on the fund’s net asset value (NAV) based on the fair value of the underlying securities. Also included are securities that are valued using a market approach (matrix pricing model) in which all significant inputs are observable or can be derived from or corroborated by observable market data.

Equity Securities and Funds – The values are determined primarily by closing prices in the active market in which the equity investment trades, or the fund’s NAV, based on the fair value of the underlying securities.

Fixed Income Securities and Funds – The securities are valued using either a market approach (matrix pricing model) in which all significant inputs are observable or can be derived from or corroborated by observable market data such as interest rates, yield curves, volatilities, credit risk and prepayment speeds, or they are valued using the closing prices in the active market in which the fixed income investment trades. Fixed income funds are valued using the NAV, based on the fair value of the underlying securities or closing prices in the active market in which the investment trades.

Real Estate, Venture Capital, Private Equity, Hedge Funds and Other – The investments, which are structured as limited partnerships, are valued at estimated fair value based on their proportionate share of the limited partnership’s fair value that is determined by the general partner. The general partner values these investments using a combination of NAV, an income approach (primarily estimated cash flows discounted over the expected holding period), or market approach (primarily the valuation of similar securities and properties). Real estate investment trusts are primarily valued at the closing prices in the active markets in which the investment trades. Real estate investment funds and other investments are primarily valued at NAV, based on the fair value of the underlying securities.

Interest Rate, Foreign Currency and Other Derivative Instruments – The derivatives are valued using either an income approach (discounted cash flow) using market observable inputs, including swap curves and both forward and spot exchange rates, or a market approach (closing prices in the active market in which the derivative instrument trades).

The primary investment objective for the pension and health care plans assets is to maximize the growth of these assets to support the projected obligations to the beneficiaries over a long period of time, and to do so in a manner that is consistent with the company’s risk tolerance. The asset allocation policy is the most important decision in managing the assets and it is reviewed regularly. The asset allocation policy considers the company’s long-term asset class risk/return expectations since the obligations are long-term in nature. The current target allocations for pension assets are approximately 49 percent for equity securities, 24 percent for debt securities, 5 percent for real estate and 22 percent for other investments. The target allocations for health care assets are approximately 53 percent for equity securities, 28 percent for debt securities, 4 percent for real estate and 15 percent for other investments. The allocation percentages above include the effects of combining derivatives with other investments to manage asset allocations and exposures to interest rates and foreign currency exchange. The assets are well diversified and are managed by professional investment firms as well as by investment professionals who are company employees. As a result of the company’s diversified investment policy, there were no significant concentrations of risk.

The expected long-term rate of return on plan assets reflects management’s expectations of long-term average rates of return on funds invested to provide for benefits included in the projected benefit obligations. A market related value of plan assets is used to calculate the expected return on assets. The market related value recognizes changes in the fair value of pension plan assets systematically over a five-year period. The market related value of the health care and life insurance plan assets equal fair value. The expected return is based on the outlook for inflation and for returns in multiple asset classes, while also considering historical returns, asset allocation and investment strategy. The company’s approach has emphasized the long-term nature of the return estimate such that the return assumption is not changed significantly unless there are fundamental changes in capital markets that affect the company’s expectations for returns over an extended period of time (i.e., 10 to 20 years). The average annual return of the company’s U.S. pension fund was approximately 8.0 percent during the past ten years and approximately 9.0 percent during the past 20 years. Since return premiums over inflation and total returns for major asset classes vary widely even over ten-year periods, recent history is not necessarily indicative of long-term future expected returns. The company’s systematic methodology for determining the long-term rate of return for the company’s investment strategies supports the long-term expected return assumptions.

The company has created certain Voluntary Employees’ Beneficiary Association trusts (VEBAs) for the funding of postretirement health care benefits. The future expected asset returns for these VEBAs are lower than the expected return on the other pension and health care plan assets due to investment in a higher proportion of liquid securities. These assets are in addition to the other postretirement health care plan assets that have been funded under Section 401(h) of the U.S. Internal Revenue Code and maintained in a separate account in the company’s pension plan trust.

The company has defined contribution plans related to employee investment and savings plans primarily in the U.S. The company’s contributions and costs under these plans were $185 million in 2015, $184 million in 2014 and $178 million in 2013. The contribution rate varies primarily based on the company’s performance in the prior year and employee participation in the plans.