-----BEGIN PRIVACY-ENHANCED MESSAGE----- Proc-Type: 2001,MIC-CLEAR Originator-Name: webmaster@www.sec.gov Originator-Key-Asymmetric: MFgwCgYEVQgBAQICAf8DSgAwRwJAW2sNKK9AVtBzYZmr6aGjlWyK3XmZv3dTINen TWSM7vrzLADbmYQaionwg5sDW3P6oaM5D3tdezXMm7z1T+B+twIDAQAB MIC-Info: RSA-MD5,RSA, Uh4zGFG6yEaLygsRqMBBoPZbJIZuQrYTyxx+nTSUH6abEKjHb425a5AE5s7aB7D1 D3yTV+9QK8xl9e6cEpKLBw== 0000950123-09-054511.txt : 20091029 0000950123-09-054511.hdr.sgml : 20091029 20091029075232 ACCESSION NUMBER: 0000950123-09-054511 CONFORMED SUBMISSION TYPE: 8-K PUBLIC DOCUMENT COUNT: 4 CONFORMED PERIOD OF REPORT: 20091029 ITEM INFORMATION: Results of Operations and Financial Condition ITEM INFORMATION: Financial Statements and Exhibits FILED AS OF DATE: 20091029 DATE AS OF CHANGE: 20091029 FILER: COMPANY DATA: COMPANY CONFORMED NAME: CINCINNATI FINANCIAL CORP CENTRAL INDEX KEY: 0000020286 STANDARD INDUSTRIAL CLASSIFICATION: FIRE, MARINE & CASUALTY INSURANCE [6331] IRS NUMBER: 310746871 STATE OF INCORPORATION: OH FISCAL YEAR END: 1231 FILING VALUES: FORM TYPE: 8-K SEC ACT: 1934 Act SEC FILE NUMBER: 000-04604 FILM NUMBER: 091143173 BUSINESS ADDRESS: STREET 1: 6200 S GILMORE RD CITY: FAIRFIELD STATE: OH ZIP: 45014 BUSINESS PHONE: 5138702000 MAIL ADDRESS: STREET 1: P.O. BOX 145496 CITY: CINCINNATI STATE: OH ZIP: 45250 8-K 1 l37843e8vk.htm FORM 8-K e8vk
 
 
UNITED STATES
SECURITIES AND EXCHANGE COMMISSION
Washington, D.C. 20549
FORM 8-K
CURRENT REPORT
Pursuant to Section 13 OR 15(d) of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934
Date of Report: October 29, 2009
(Date of earliest event reported)
CINCINNATI FINANCIAL CORPORATION
(Exact name of registrant as specified in its charter)
         
Ohio
(State or other jurisdiction
of incorporation)
  0-4604
(Commission
File Number)
  31-0746871
(I.R.S. Employer
Identification No.)
     
6200 S. Gilmore Road, Fairfield, Ohio
(Address of principal executive offices)
  45014-5141
(Zip Code)
Registrant’s telephone number, including area code: (513) 870-2000
N/A
(Former name or former address, if changed since last report.)
Check the appropriate box below if the Form 8-K filing is intended to simultaneously satisfy the filing obligation of the registrant under any of the following provisions:
o   Written communications pursuant to Rule 425 under the Securities Act (17 CFR 230.425)
 
o   Soliciting material pursuant to Rule 14a-12 under the Exchange Act (17 CFR 240.14a-12)
 
o   Pre-commencement communications pursuant to Rule 14d-2(b) under the Exchange Act (17 CFR 240.14d-2(b))
 
o   Pre-commencement communications pursuant to Rule 13e-4(c) under the Exchange Act (17 CFR 240.13a-4(c))
 
 

 


 

Item 2.02 Results of Operations and Financial Condition.
On October 29, 2009, Cincinnati Financial Corporation issued the attached news release titled “Cincinnati Financial Reports Third-Quarter 2009 Results,” furnished as Exhibit 99.1 hereto and incorporated herein by reference. On October 29, 2009, the company also distributed the attached information titled “Supplemental Financial Data,” furnished as Exhibit 99.2 hereto and incorporated herein by reference. This report should not be deemed an admission as to the materiality of any information contained in the news release or supplemental financial data.
In accordance with general instruction B.2 of Form 8-K, the information furnished in this report shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended, or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that Section, nor shall such information be deemed incorporated by reference in any filing under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended.
Item 9.01 Financial Statements and Exhibits.
(c) Exhibits
      Exhibit 99.1 – News release dated October 29, 2009, “Cincinnati Financial Reports Third-Quarter 2009 Results”
 
      Exhibit 99.2 – Supplemental Financial Data dated October 29, 2009

 


 

Signature
Pursuant to the requirements of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, the registrant has duly caused this report to be signed on its behalf by the undersigned hereunto duly authorized.
         
  CINCINNATI FINANCIAL CORPORATION
 
 
Date: October 29, 2009   /s/ Steven J. Johnston    
  Steven J. Johnston, FCAS, MAAA, CFA   
  Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President,
Secretary and Treasurer 
 
 

 

EX-99.1 2 l37843exv99w1.htm EX-99.1 exv99w1
Exhibit 99.1
     
(CINCINNATI LOGO)
 
CINCINNATI FINANCIAL CORPORATION


Investor Contact: Dennis E. McDaniel, 513-870-2768
CINF-IR@cinfin.com

Media Contact: Joan O. Shevchik, 513-603-5323
Media_Inquiries@cinfin.com
Cincinnati Financial Reports Third-Quarter 2009 Results
Cincinnati, October 29, 2009 — Cincinnati Financial Corporation (Nasdaq: CINF) today reported:
  Net income of $171 million, or $1.05 per share, in the third quarter of 2009, compared with $247 million, or $1.50 per share, in the 2008 third quarter. Net realized investment gains contributed $75 million, or 46 cents per share, compared with $173 million, or $1.05 per share.
  Operating income* of $96 million, or 59 cents per share, in the 2009 third quarter, compared with operating income of $74 million, or 45 cents per share.
  Net income and operating income for the third-quarter of 2009 reflected a property casualty insurance underwriting profit, contributing 14 cents per share, compared with a third-quarter 2008 underwriting loss that decreased income by 4 cents per share. The property casualty contribution rose primarily on lower weather-related catastrophe losses.
  Book value per share of $28.44 at September 30, 2009, up 11.6 percent during the quarter.
  Value creation ratio reached 13.1 percent for the third quarter and 15.0 percent for the first nine months of 2009.
Financial Highlights
                                                 
    Three months ended September 30,     Nine months ended September 30,  
(Dollars in millions except share data)   2009     2008     change %     2009     2008     change %  
 
Revenue Highlights
                                               
Earned premiums
  $ 766     $ 781       (1.9 )   $ 2,301     $ 2,355       (2.3 )
Investment income
    127       130       (2.4 )     370       412       (10.3 )
Total revenues
    1,007       1,186       (15.1 )     2,770       2,806       (1.3 )
Income Statement Data
                                               
Net income
  $ 171     $ 247       (31.0 )   $ 187     $ 268       (30.1 )
Net realized investment gains and losses
    75       173       (57.2 )     58       16       263.8  
 
                                   
Operating income*
  $ 96     $ 74       30.7     $ 129     $ 252       (48.9 )
 
                                   
Per Share Data (diluted)
                                               
Net income
  $ 1.05     $ 1.50       (30.0 )   $ 1.15     $ 1.64       (29.9 )
Net realized investment gains and losses
    0.46       1.05       (56.2 )     0.36       0.10       260.0  
 
                                   
Operating income*
  $ 0.59     $ 0.45       31.1     $ 0.79     $ 1.54       (48.7 )
 
                                   
 
                                               
Book value
                          $ 28.44     $ 28.87       (1.5 )
Cash dividend declared
    0.395       0.39       1.3       1.175       1.17       0.4  
Diluted weighted average shares outstanding
    162,901,396       164,242,185       (0.8 )     162,794,767       163,834,163       (0.6 )
Insurance Operations Highlights
  95.1 percent third-quarter 2009 property casualty combined ratio improved from 101.3 percent in the third quarter of 2008.
  Property casualty net written premiums grew $3 million or 0.5 percent, with new business from growth initiatives and lower ceded premiums for reinsurance offsetting the negative premium effects of the slow economy and a disciplined underwriting response to lower market pricing.
  $14 million increase in property casualty new business written by agencies in the third quarter of 2009, with $9 million from standard market geographic expansion initiatives and $4 million from surplus lines.
  4 cents per share contribution from life insurance operations to third-quarter operating income, up from 3 cents per share.
Balance Sheet and Investment Highlights
  $28.44 book value, up 10.4 percent from $25.75 at December 31, 2008. Property casualty statutory surplus rose 3.3 percent to $3.472 billion.
  Invested assets fair value increased 7.4 percent and 17.3 percent during the third quarter and first nine months of 2009.
  Investment income for the third quarter declined 2.4 percent and is approaching a growth pace following portfolio changes during 2008 and early 2009 to execute a capital preservation diversification strategy.
  Strong capital position includes financial flexibility from parent company cash and marketable securities of $1.061 billion.
 
*   The Definitions of Non-GAAP Information and Reconciliation to Comparable GAAP Measures on Page 10 defines and reconciles measures presented in this release that are not based on Generally Accepted Accounting Principles or Statutory Accounting Principles.
 
**   Forward-looking statements and related assumptions are subject to the risks outlined in the company’s safe harbor statement (see Page 7).

 


 

Return to Profitability and Positive Direction
Kenneth W. Stecher, president and chief executive officer, commented, “While the economy and price competition continue to challenge our insurance business, the metrics we use to measure our success moved in a distinctly positive direction in the third quarter. Operating income of $96 million or 59 cents per share surpassed the amounts reported since the first quarter of 2008. Pre-tax investment income nearly reached the level of the 2008 third quarter, on track to resume a growth trend by year-end 2009.
“Our property casualty insurance operations benefitted from atypically low catastrophe losses, strong reserves and some stabilization of pricing. We achieved $36 million of pre-tax underwriting profit and a combined ratio of 95.1 percent for the third quarter, our best result since the fourth quarter of 2007. As expected, our workers’ compensation and homeowner lines of business continued to underperform. For both of these lines, we are using predictive modeling techniques to improve the accuracy of our pricing for each account and to target best-of-class accounts. Early results show positive impacts on pricing and verify the trend to higher quality accounts, which should, over time, return these lines to profitability.
“We are satisfied with third-quarter results relative to other recent quarters, recognizing that we still have work to do. As we navigate through a difficult period for our company, our industry and economy, we continue to sharply focus on initiatives that have just begun to bear fruit and have strong potential to drive future profitable growth,” Stecher said. “During the third quarter, we saw clear indications that these efforts are increasing current opportunities and opening new ones. Among those indications was a healthy amount of new business that directly resulted from our initiatives, helping offset lower premiums resulting from lower policyholder sales and payrolls used to calculate premiums. We continue to decline underpriced business, giving up short-term revenue to protect long-term profitability.”
Current Progress and Potential for Profitable Growth
Stecher continued, “We are making good progress in expanding our product lines and pursuing geographic diversification. Our new surplus lines subsidiary has been well received by our independent agent representatives, and it is contributing steadily to new business. Our entry into additional states is going well, with business building at a good pace in Texas, New Mexico and eastern Washington. In September, we appointed our first Wyoming agency, expanding the marketing territory that includes northern Colorado. We’re receiving rollover books of personal lines business in areas where we recently expanded that product line.
“Our technology initiatives also are proceeding on time and on budget. In October, we put our new policy administration system for commercial packages and auto policies into production in five states accounting for approximately 40 percent of our commercial lines premium. The system makes it easier for agents to serve the insurance needs of the businesses in their communities, offering efficiencies such as direct billing by the company and the ability to quote and issue policies in real time directly from their agency systems. We expect to have this system in six more states before year-end, with 19 additional states scheduled for 2010.
“Our expansion and technology initiatives support our long-term strategies. First, we are working to improve profitability by introducing more efficient systems and enhancing our underwriting capabilities. Second, we are driving premium growth by making it more attractive for agents to do business with us and by moving toward a larger footprint that also reduces volatility of our results associated with weather-related catastrophes. We also continue to make progress with the third part of our long-term strategy, to preserve capital. Our investment portfolio is actively managed, with an eye toward the appropriate balance between current income and the potential for capital appreciation that benefits shareholders.”
Shareholder Rewards
Stecher concluded, “Significantly exceeding year-end 2008 levels, shareholders’ equity rose to $4.626 billion and book value per share rose to $28.44 at the end of the third quarter. The increase helped take our value creation ratio for the year-to-date period to the 15 percent level earlier than anticipated. Our target for this measure is a 12 percent to 15 percent average for the five-year period of 2010 through 2014. The value creation ratio is the sum of our rate of growth in book value per share plus the ratio of dividends declared per share to beginning book value. It captures the contribution of our insurance operations, the success of our investment strategy and the importance we place on paying cash dividends to shareholders.
“During the third quarter, our board of directors increased the indicated annual dividend for a 49th consecutive year, raising the quarterly dividend paid October 15 by a half cent to 39.5 cents. This gesture signaled their confidence that we are moving steadily in the right direction, as verified by underwriting profit in the third quarter. We are eager to further pursue the new opportunities we have just begun to tap.”

2


 

Consolidated Property Casualty Insurance Operations
                                                 
(Dollars in millions; percent change given for dollar amounts   Three months ended September 30,     Nine months ended September 30,  
and point change given for ratios)   2009     2008     change %     2009     2008     change %  
 
Earned premiums
  $ 733     $ 751       (2.4 )   $ 2,198     $ 2,262       (2.9 )
 
                                               
Loss and loss expenses before catastrophe losses
    453       460       (1.5 )     1,446       1,362       6.1  
Loss and loss expenses from catastrophe losses
    6       63       (89.7 )     177       219       (19.2 )
 
                                   
Total loss and loss expenses
    459       523       (12.2 )     1,623       1,581       2.6  
Underwriting expenses
    238       237       0.2       716       707       1.4  
 
                                   
Underwriting profit (loss)
  $ 36     $ (9 )     nm     $ (141 )   $ (26 )     (449.3 )
 
                                   
 
                                               
Other premium metrics:
                                               
Agency renewal written premiums
  $ 669     $ 687       (2.7 )   $ 2,030     $ 2,159       (6.0 )
Agency new business written premiums
    107       93       15.4       311       268       16.0  
Net written premiums
    730       727       0.5       2,231       2,292       (2.7 )
 
                                               
Ratios as a percent of earned premiums:
                  Points                   Points
 
                                           
Loss and loss expenses
    62.7 %     69.7 %     (7.0 )     73.8 %     69.9 %     3.9  
Underwriting expenses
    32.4       31.6       0.8       32.6       31.2       1.4  
 
                                   
Combined ratio
    95.1 %     101.3 %     (6.2 )     106.4 %     101.1 %     5.3  
 
                                   
 
                                               
Other metrics within combined ratio:
                                               
Contribution from catastrophe losses
    0.9       8.4       (7.5 )     8.1       9.7       (1.6 )
Contribution from prior period reserve development
    (12.4 )     (13.6 )     1.2       (5.2 )     (8.9 )     3.7  
  $3 million or 0.5 percent increase in third-quarter property casualty net written premiums as the effects of insured exposure decreases, soft pricing and disciplined renewal underwriting were offset by growth in new business and lower ceded premiums on reinsurance, including $8 million less for reinstatement premiums on catastrophe reinsurance.
  $14 million increase in third-quarter 2009 new business written by agencies includes a $4 million increase from surplus lines operations that began in 2008 and a $10 million increase from personal lines operations.
  1,174 agency relationships with 1,455 reporting locations marketing standard market property casualty insurance products at September 30, 2009, up from 1,133 agency relationships with 1,387 reporting locations at year-end 2008.
  Third-quarter 2009 GAAP combined ratio decreased primarily due to lower catastrophe losses.
  Underwriting results benefitted from the impact of favorable prior accident year reserve development of $91 million for the third quarter of 2009 and $102 million for the third quarter of 2008.
                                                         
(In millions, net of reinsurance)           Three months ended September 30,           Nine months ended September 30,        
            Commercial     Personal             Commercial     Personal         
Dates   Cause of loss   Region   lines     lines     Total     lines     lines     Total  
 
2009
                                                       
First quarter catastrophes
            (1 )     1             20       47       67  
Second quarter catastrophes
            (10 )     1       (9 )     42       45       87  
Sep. 18-22
  Flood, hail, wind   South     1       4       5       1       4       5  
All other 2009 catastrophes
            6       6       12       11       13       24  
Development on 2008 and prior catastrophes
            (3 )     1       (2 )     (10 )     4       (6 )
 
                                       
Calendar year incurred total
          $ (7 )   $ 13     $ 6     $ 64     $ 113     $ 177  
 
                                       
 
                                                       
2008
                                                       
First quarter catastrophes
            (1 )           (1 )     21       21       42  
Second quarter catastrophes
            (2 )     (10 )     (12 )     66       34       100  
Jul. 19
  Wind, hail, flood   Midwest     3       3       6       3       3       6  
Jul. 26
  Wind, hail, flood   Midwest     1       8       9       1       8       9  
Sep. 12-14
  Hurricane Ike   South, Midwest     20       37       57       20       37       57  
All other 2008 catastrophes
            1             1       3       3       6  
Development on 2007 and prior catastrophes
            1       2       3       (2 )     1       (1 )
 
                                       
Calendar year incurred total
          $ 23     $ 40     $ 63     $ 112     $ 107     $ 219  
 
                                       

3


 

Insurance Segments Highlights
Commercial Lines Insurance Operations
                                                 
(Dollars in millions; percent change given for dollar amounts   Three months ended September 30,     Nine months ended September 30,  
and point change given for ratios)   2009     2008     change %     2009     2008     change %  
 
Earned premiums
  $ 555     $ 582       (4.7 )   $ 1,667     $ 1,743       (4.4 )
 
                                               
Loss and loss expenses before catastrophe losses
    336       348       (3.6 )     1,095       1,034       5.9  
Loss and loss expenses from catastrophe losses
    (7 )     23     nm       64       112       (42.8 )
 
                                       
Total loss and loss expenses
    329       371       (11.5 )     1,159       1,146       1.2  
Underwriting expenses
    184       181       1.6       539       538       0.2  
 
                                       
Underwriting profit (loss)
  $ 42     $ 30       41.5     $ (31 )   $ 59       (152.1 )
 
                                       
 
                                               
Other premium metrics:
                                               
Agency renewal written premiums
  $ 489     $ 502       (2.5 )   $ 1,535     $ 1,642       (6.5 )
Agency new business written premiums
    76       77       (0.4 )     231       229       0.8  
Net written premiums
    528       538       (1.8 )     1,678       1,759       (4.7 )
 
                                               
 
                  Points                   Points
Ratios as a percent of earned premiums:
                                               
Loss and loss expenses
    59.3 %     63.8 %     (4.5 )     69.6 %     65.7 %     3.9  
Underwriting expenses
    33.1       31.1       2.0       32.3       30.9       1.4  
 
                                         
Combined ratio
    92.4 %     94.9 %     (2.5 )     101.9 %     96.6 %     5.3  
 
                                   
 
                                               
Other metrics within combined ratio:
                                               
Contribution from catastrophe losses
    (1.2 )     4.0       (5.2 )     3.8       6.4       (2.6 )
Contribution from prior period reserve development
    (13.4 )     (15.0 )     1.6       (5.2 )     (10.1 )     4.9  
  $10 million or 1.8 percent decrease in third-quarter commercial lines net written premiums. Lower renewal premiums reflected modest pricing declines and lower insured exposure levels such as business sales or payroll volume, due to the weak economy. Lower new business premiums reflected decisions to decline business considered underpriced, partially offset by growth initiatives including $4 million from Texas, a market we entered in December 2008.
  2.5 percentage-point improvement in third-quarter combined ratio due primarily to lower weather-related catastrophe losses.
  Favorable prior accident year reserve development benefitted third-quarter underwriting results by $74 million for 2009 compared with $88 million for 2008, with umbrella liability coverages driving the majority of the 2009 benefit.
Personal Lines Insurance Operations
                                                 
(Dollars in millions; percent change given for dollar amounts   Three months ended September 30,     Nine months ended September 30,  
and point change given for ratios)   2009     2008     change %     2009     2008     change %  
 
Earned premiums
  $ 170     $ 167       1.8     $ 513     $ 518       (0.9 )
 
Loss and loss expenses before catastrophe losses
    112       111       0.3       337       328       2.7  
Loss and loss expenses from catastrophe losses
    13       40       (66.2 )     113       107       5.3  
 
                                       
Total loss and loss expenses
    125       151       (17.2 )     450       435       3.3  
Underwriting expenses
    49       54       (8.8 )     159       165       (3.2 )
 
                                       
Underwriting loss
  $ (4 )   $ (38 )     89.8     $ (96 )   $ (82 )     (16.6 )
 
                                       
Other premium metrics:
                                               
Agency renewal direct written premiums
  $ 177     $ 185       (4.7 )   $ 490     $ 517       (5.3 )
Agency new business direct written premiums
    21       11       90.9       55       30       82.0  
Net written premiums
    190       184       3.2       524       525       (0.1 )
 
                                               
 
                  Points                   Points
Ratios as a percent of earned premiums:
                                               
Loss and loss expenses
    73.3 %     90.1 %     (16.8 )     87.5 %     84.0 %     3.5  
Underwriting expenses
    29.0       32.4       (3.4 )     31.2       31.9       (0.7 )
 
                                   
Combined ratio
    102.3 %     122.5 %     (20.2 )     118.7 %     115.9 %     2.8  
 
                                   
 
                                               
Other metrics within combined ratio:
                                               
Contribution from catastrophe losses
    7.9       23.8       (15.9 )     22.0       20.7       1.3  
Contribution from prior period reserve development
    (10.1 )     (9.1 )     (1.0 )     (5.0 )     (5.2 )     0.2  
  $6 million or 3.2 percent increase in third-quarter personal lines net written premiums, including $6 million lower catastrophe reinsurance reinstatement premiums. Lower renewal premiums were offset by higher new business premiums.
  $10 million increase in third-quarter personal lines new business including $4 million from seven states where we began in 2008 to market personal lines or significantly expanded our personal lines product offerings and automation capabilities.
  20.2 percentage-point decrease in the combined ratio largely due to a 15.9 percentage-point decrease in catastrophe losses.
  Favorable prior accident year reserve development benefitted third-quarter underwriting results by $17 million for 2009 compared with $15 million for 2008, with umbrella liability coverages driving the majority of the 2009 benefit.

4


 

Life Insurance Operations
                                                 
    Three months ended September 30,     Nine months ended September 30,  
(In millions)   2009     2008     change %     2009     2008     change %  
 
Written premiums
  $ 110     $ 44       150.1     $ 233     $ 135       73.2  
 
                                       
Earned premiums
  $ 33     $ 30       10.7     $ 103     $ 93       11.0  
Investment income, net of expenses
    31       30       3.4       90       89       2.0  
Other income
                nm       1       1       (56.3 )
 
                                       
Total revenues, excluding realized investment gains and losses
    64       60       7.7       194       183       6.1  
 
                                       
Contract holders benefits
    40       41       (1.0 )     118       115       3.1  
Underwriting expenses
    9       11       (16.7 )     34       33       4.6  
 
                                       
Total benefits and expenses
    49       52       (4.4 )     152       148       3.4  
 
                                       
Net income before income tax and realized investment gains and losses
    15       8       90.1       42       35       17.6  
Income tax
    8       3       175.8       15       12       23.5  
 
                                       
Net income before realized investment gains and losses
  $ 7     $ 5       43.2     $ 27     $ 23       14.6  
 
                                       
  $66 million three-month and $98 million nine-month growth in 2009 life insurance segment net written premiums primarily due to increased fixed annuity sales. Written premiums include life insurance, annuity and accident and health premiums.
  Net written premiums from life insurance products grew 10.1 percent during the third quarter of 2009 and 8.5 percent to $117 million for the first nine months of 2009.
  12.0 percent rise to $65 million in term life insurance written premiums for the first nine months of 2009, reflecting marketing advantages of competitive, up-to-date products, close personal attention and policies backed by financial strength and stability.
  Growth in earned premiums drove improved profitability for the third quarter and first nine months of 2009 as life insurance operations continue to provide a steady contribution to overall earnings. Reduced underwriting expenses also contributed to higher profitability for the third quarter of 2009.
  4.6 percent rise in face amount of life policies in force to $68.895 billion at September 30, 2009, from $65.888 billion at year-end 2008.

5


 

Investment and Balance Sheet Highlights
Investment Operations
                                                 
    Three months ended September 30,     Nine months ended September 30,        
(In millions)   2009     2008     change %     2009     2008     change %  
 
Investment income:
                                               
Interest
  $ 104     $ 83       26.0     $ 296     $ 238       24.5  
Dividends
    24       46       (48.0 )     74       169       (56.2 )
Other
    1       3       (70.4 )     6       10       (47.3 )
Investment expenses
    (2 )     (2 )     (18.0 )     (6 )     (5 )     (11.3 )
 
                                       
Total investment income, net of expenses
    127       130       (2.4 )     370       412       (10.3 )
 
                                       
Investment interest credited to contract holders
    (17 )     (16 )     (10.1 )     (50 )     (47 )     (7.6 )
 
                                       
Realized investment gains and losses summary:
                                               
Realized investment gains and losses, net
    106       401       (73.6 )     180       441       (59.1 )
Change in fair value of securities with embedded derivatives
    15       (8 )     296.0       23       (13 )     268.0  
Other-than-temporary impairment charges
    (11 )     (121 )     90.8       (113 )     (400 )     71.7  
 
                                       
Total realized investment gains and losses, net
    110       272       (59.6 )     90       28       218.1  
 
                                       
Investment operations income
  $ 220     $ 386       (43.2 )   $ 410     $ 393       4.0  
 
                                       
  2.4 percent decline in third-quarter 2009 net investment income, as higher interest income only partially offset dividend reductions by equity security holdings. Those dividend reductions occurred primarily during late 2008 and early 2009.
 
  $572 million third-quarter 2009 increase in pre-tax unrealized investment gains, including $407 million for the fixed maturities portfolio.
 
  Pre-tax realized investment gain for the first nine months of 2009 included $205 million in net gains from sales of equity securities as the company actively managed sector and issue diversification.
                 
    At September 30,   At December 31,
(Dollars in millions except share data)   2009   2008
 
Balance sheet data
               
Invested assets
  $ 10,428     $ 8,890  
Total assets
    14,226       13,369  
Short-term debt
    49       49  
Long-term debt
    790       791  
Shareholders’ equity
    4,626       4,182  
Book value per share
    28.44       25.75  
Debt-to-capital ratio
    15.3 %     16.7 %
                 
    Nine months ended September 30,
    2009   2008
 
Performance measures
               
Value creation ratio
    15.0 %     (15.9 )%
 
  $10.876 billion in cash and invested assets at September 30, 2009, up from $9.899 billion at December 31, 2008. Cash and equivalents of $448 million at September 30, 2009, compared with $1.009 billion at December 31, 2008.
 
  $7.668 billion bond portfolio at September 30, 2009, with an average rating of A2/A and with a 7.6 percent rise in fair value during the third quarter of 2009.
 
  $2.669 billion equity portfolio was 25.6 percent of invested assets, including $697 million in pre-tax unrealized gains at September 30, 2009. Fair value of the equity portfolio rose 7.1 percent during the third quarter of 2009.
 
  $3.472 billion of statutory surplus for the property casualty insurance group at September 30, 2009, up from $3.360 billion at December 31, 2008. Ratio of net written premiums to property casualty statutory surplus for the 12 months ended September 30, 2009, of 0.85-to-1, further improved from 0.89-to-1 for the 12 months ended December 31, 2008.
 
  Value creation ratio for the first nine months of 2009 includes 4.6 percent from shareholder dividends and 10.4 percent growth in book value per share.
For additional information or to register for this morning’s conference call webcast, please visit www.cinfin.com/investors.

Cincinnati Financial Corporation offers business, home and auto insurance, our main business, through The Cincinnati Insurance Company and its two standard market property casualty companies. The same local independent insurance agencies that market those policies may offer products of our other subsidiaries, including life and disability income insurance, annuities and surplus lines property and casualty insurance. For additional information about the company, please visit www.cinfin.com.
         
    Mailing Address:   Street Address:
 
  P.O. Box 145496   6200 South Gilmore Road
 
  Cincinnati, Ohio 45250-5496   Fairfield, Ohio 45014-5141

6


 

Safe Harbor Statement
This is our “Safe Harbor” statement under the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Our business is subject to certain risks and uncertainties that may cause actual results to differ materially from those suggested by the forward-looking statements in this report. Some of those risks and uncertainties are discussed in our 2008 Annual Report on Form 10-K, Item 1A, Risk Factors, Page 25. Although we often review or update our forward-looking statements when events warrant, we caution our readers that we undertake no obligation to do so.
Factors that could cause or contribute to such differences include, but are not limited to:
  Unusually high levels of catastrophe losses due to risk concentrations, changes in weather patterns, environmental events, terrorism incidents or other causes
 
  Increased frequency and/or severity of claims
 
  Inadequate estimates or assumptions used for critical accounting estimates
 
  Recession or other economic conditions resulting in lower demand for insurance products or increased payment delinquencies
 
  Delays in adoption and implementation of underwriting and pricing methods that could increase our pricing accuracy, underwriting profit and competitiveness
 
  Inability to defer policy acquisition costs for our personal lines segment if pricing and loss trends would lead management to conclude this segment could not achieve sustainable profitability
 
  Declines in overall stock market values negatively affecting the company’s equity portfolio and book value
 
  Events, such as the credit crisis, followed by prolonged periods of economic instability or recession, that lead to:
  °   Significant or prolonged decline in the value of a particular security or group of securities and impairment of the asset(s)
 
  °   Significant decline in investment income due to reduced or eliminated dividend payouts from a particular security or group of securities
 
  °   Significant rise in losses from surety and director and officer policies written for financial institutions
  Prolonged low interest rate environment or other factors that limit the company’s ability to generate growth in investment income or interest rate fluctuations that result in declining values of fixed-maturity investments, including declines in accounts in which we hold bank-owned life insurance contract assets
  Increased competition that could result in a significant reduction in the company’s premium volume
  Changing consumer insurance-buying habits and consolidation of independent insurance agencies that could alter our competitive advantages
  Ability to obtain adequate reinsurance on acceptable terms, amount of reinsurance purchased, financial strength of reinsurers and the potential for non-payment or delay in payment by reinsurers
  Events or conditions that could weaken or harm the company’s relationships with its independent agencies and hamper opportunities to add new agencies, resulting in limitations on the company’s opportunities for growth, such as:
  °   Multi-notch downgrades of the company’s financial strength ratings
 
  °   Concerns that doing business with the company is too difficult
 
  °   Perceptions that the company’s level of service, particularly claims service, is no longer a distinguishing characteristic in the marketplace
 
  °   Delays or inadequacies in the development, implementation, performance and benefits of technology projects and enhancements
  Actions of insurance departments, state attorneys general or other regulatory agencies, including a change to a federal system of regulation from a state-based system, that:
  °   Restrict our ability to exit or reduce writings of unprofitable coverages or lines of business
 
  °   Place the insurance industry under greater regulatory scrutiny or result in new statutes, rules and regulations
 
  °   Increase our expenses
 
  °   Add assessments for guaranty funds, other insurance related assessments or mandatory reinsurance arrangements; or that impair our ability to recover such assessments through future surcharges or other rate changes
 
  °   Limit our ability to set fair, adequate and reasonable rates
 
  °   Place us at a disadvantage in the marketplace
 
  °   Restrict our ability to execute our business model, including the way we compensate agents
  Adverse outcomes from litigation or administrative proceedings
  Events or actions, including unauthorized intentional circumvention of controls, that reduce the company’s future ability to maintain effective internal control over financial reporting under the Sarbanes-Oxley Act of 2002
  Unforeseen departure of certain executive officers or other key employees due to retirement, health or other causes that could interrupt progress toward important strategic goals or diminish the effectiveness of certain longstanding relationships with insurance agents and others
  Events, such as an epidemic, natural catastrophe or terrorism, that could hamper our ability to assemble our workforce at our headquarters location
Further, the company’s insurance businesses are subject to the effects of changing social, economic and regulatory environments. Public and regulatory initiatives have included efforts to adversely influence and restrict premium rates, restrict the ability to cancel policies, impose underwriting standards and expand overall regulation. The company also is subject to public and regulatory initiatives that can affect the market value for its common stock, such as recent measures affecting corporate financial reporting and governance. The ultimate changes and eventual effects, if any, of these initiatives are uncertain.
***

7


 

Cincinnati Financial Corporation
Condensed Balance Sheets and Statements of Income (unaudited)
                 
    September 30,     December 31,  
(Dollars in millions)   2009     2008  
 
Assets
               
Investments
  $ 10,428     $ 8,890  
Cash and cash equivalents
    448       1,009  
Premiums receivable
    1,046       1,059  
Reinsurance receivable
    707       759  
Other assets
    1,597       1,652  
 
           
Total assets
  $ 14,226     $ 13,369  
 
           
 
               
Liabilities
               
Insurance reserves
  $ 5,893     $ 5,637  
Unearned premiums
    1,557       1,544  
6.125% senior notes due 2034
    371       371  
6.9% senior debentures due 2028
    28       28  
6.92% senior debentures due 2028
    391       392  
Other liabilities
    1,360       1,215  
 
           
Total liabilities
    9,600       9,187  
 
           
 
               
Shareholders’ Equity
               
Common stock and paid-in capital
    1,471       1,462  
Retained earnings
    3,681       3,579  
Accumulated other comprehensive income
    675       347  
Treasury stock
    (1,201 )     (1,206 )
 
           
Total shareholders’ equity
    4,626       4,182  
 
           
Total liabilities and shareholders’ equity
  $ 14,226     $ 13,369  
 
           
                                 
    Three months ended September 30,     Nine months ended September 30,  
(Dollars in millions except per share data)   2009     2008     2009     2008  
 
Revenues
                               
Earned premiums
  $ 766     $ 781     $ 2,301     $ 2,355  
Investment income, net of expenses
    127       130       370       412  
Realized investment gains and losses
    110       272       90       28  
Other income
    4       3       9       11  
 
                       
Total revenues
    1,007       1,186       2,770       2,806  
 
                       
 
                               
Benefits and Expenses
                               
Insurance losses and policyholder benefits
    498       563       1,737       1,693  
Underwriting, acquisition and insurance expenses
    247       248       750       738  
Other operating expenses
    4       5       14       16  
Interest expense
    14       14       42       39  
 
                       
Total benefits and expenses
    763       830       2,543       2,486  
 
                       
 
                               
Income before Income Taxes
    244       356       227       320  
 
                               
Provision for Income Taxes
    73       109       40       52  
 
                       
Net Income
  $ 171     $ 247     $ 187     $ 268  
 
                       
 
                               
Per Common Share:
                               
Net income—basic
  $ 1.05     $ 1.51     $ 1.15     $ 1.64  
Net income—diluted
  $ 1.05     $ 1.50     $ 1.15     $ 1.64  

8


 

Definitions of Non-GAAP Information and
Reconciliation to Comparable GAAP Measures
(See attached tables for 2009 reconciliations; prior-period reconciliations available at www.cinfin.com/investors.)
Cincinnati Financial Corporation prepares its public financial statements in conformity with accounting principles generally accepted in the United States of America (GAAP). Statutory data is prepared in accordance with statutory accounting rules as defined by the National Association of Insurance Commissioners’ (NAIC) Accounting Practices and Procedures Manual and therefore is not reconciled to GAAP data.
Management uses certain non-GAAP and non-statutory financial measures to evaluate its primary business areas — property casualty insurance, life insurance and investments. Management uses these measures when analyzing both GAAP and non-GAAP measures to improve its understanding of trends in the underlying business and to help avoid incorrect or misleading assumptions and conclusions about the success or failure of company strategies. Management adjustments to GAAP measures generally: apply to non-recurring events that are unrelated to business performance and distort short-term results; involve values that fluctuate based on events outside of management’s control; or relate to accounting refinements that affect comparability between periods, creating a need to analyze data on the same basis.
  Operating income: Operating income is calculated by excluding net realized investment gains and losses (defined as realized investment gains and losses after applicable federal and state income taxes) from net income. Management evaluates operating income to measure the success of pricing, rate and underwriting strategies. While realized investment gains (or losses) are integral to the company’s insurance operations over the long term, the determination to realize investment gains or losses in any period may be subject to management’s discretion and is independent of the insurance underwriting process. Also, under applicable GAAP accounting requirements, gains and losses can be recognized from certain changes in market values of securities without actual realization. Management believes that the level of realized investment gains or losses for any particular period, while it may be material, may not fully indicate the performance of ongoing underlying business operations in that period.
 
    For these reasons, many investors and shareholders consider operating income to be one of the more meaningful measures for evaluating insurance company performance. Equity analysts who report on the insurance industry and the company generally focus on this metric in their analyses. The company presents operating income so that all investors have what management believes to be a useful supplement to GAAP information.
  Statutory accounting rules: For public reporting, insurance companies prepare financial statements in accordance with GAAP. However, insurers also must calculate certain data according to statutory accounting rules as defined in the NAIC’s Accounting Practices and Procedures Manual, which may be, and has been, modified by various state insurance departments. Statutory data is publicly available, and various organizations use it to calculate aggregate industry data, study industry trends and compare insurance companies.
  Written premium: Under statutory accounting rules, property casualty written premium is the amount recorded for policies issued and recognized on an annualized basis at the effective date of the policy. Management analyzes trends in written premium to assess business efforts. Earned premium, used in both statutory and GAAP accounting, is calculated ratably over the policy term. The difference between written and earned premium is unearned premium.
  Written premium adjustment — statutory basis only: In 2002, the company refined its estimation process for matching property casualty written premiums to policy effective dates, which added $117 million to 2002 written premiums. To better assess ongoing business trends, management may exclude this adjustment when analyzing trends in written premiums and statutory ratios that make use of written premiums.

9


 

Cincinnati Financial Corporation
Net Income Reconciliation
                 
    Three months ended     Nine months ended  
(In millions except per share data)   September 30, 2009     September 30, 2009  
 
Net income
  $ 171     $ 187  
Net realized investment gains and losses
    75       58  
 
           
Operating income
    96       129  
Less catastrophe losses
    (4 )     (115 )
 
           
Operating income before catastrophe losses
  $ 100     $ 244  
 
           
 
               
Diluted per share data:
               
Net income
  $ 1.05     $ 1.15  
Net realized investment gains and losses
    0.46       0.36  
 
           
Operating income
    0.59       0.79  
Less catastrophe losses
    (0.03 )     (0.71 )
 
           
Operating income before catastrophe losses
  $ 0.62     $ 1.50  
 
           
Property Casualty Reconciliation
                         
    Three months ended September 30, 2009  
(Dollars in millions)   Consolidated*     Commercial     Personal  
 
Premiums:
                       
Adjusted written premiums — statutory
  $ 736       534       190  
Written premium adjustment
    (6 )     (6 )     0  
 
                 
Reported written premiums — statutory
    730       528       190  
Unearned premiums change
    3       27       (20 )
 
                 
Earned premiums
  $ 733     $ 555     $ 170  
 
                 
 
Statutory combined ratio:
                       
Statutory combined ratio
    96.9 %     94.9 %     102.8 %
Contribution from catastrophe losses
    0.9       (1.2 )     7.9  
 
                 
Statutory combined ratio excluding catastrophe losses
    96.0 %     96.1 %     94.9 %
 
                 
 
                       
Commission expense ratio
    20.1 %     20.3 %     19.1 %
Other expense ratio
    14.1       15.3       10.4  
 
                 
Statutory expense ratio
    34.2 %     35.6 %     29.5 %
 
                 
 
                       
GAAP combined ratio:
                       
GAAP combined ratio
    95.1 %     92.4 %     102.3 %
Contribution from catastrophe losses
    0.9       (1.2 )     7.9  
Prior accident years before catastrophe losses
    (12.1 )     (12.8 )     (10.7 )
 
                 
GAAP combined ratio excluding catastrophe losses and prior years reserve development
    106.3 %     106.4 %     105.1 %
 
                 
                         
    Nine months ended September 30, 2009  
(Dollars in millions)   Consolidated*     Commercial     Personal  
 
Premiums:
                       
Adjusted written premiums — statutory
  $ 2,226     $ 1,674     $ 523  
Written premium adjustment
    5       4       1  
 
                 
Reported written premiums — statutory
    2,231       1,678       524  
Unearned premiums change
    (33 )     (11 )     (11 )
 
                 
Earned premiums
  $ 2,198     $ 1,667     $ 513  
 
                 
 
Statutory combined ratio:
                       
Statutory combined ratio
    106.2 %     101.8 %     118.7 %
Contribution from catastrophe losses
    8.1       3.8       22.0  
 
                 
Statutory combined ratio excluding catastrophe losses
    98.1 %     98.0 %     96.7 %
 
                 
 
                       
Commission expense ratio
    18.7 %     18.2 %     19.6 %
Other expense ratio
    13.7       14.1       11.6  
 
                 
Statutory expense ratio
    32.4 %     32.3 %     31.2 %
 
                 
 
                       
GAAP combined ratio:
                       
GAAP combined ratio
    106.4 %     101.9 %     118.7 %
Contribution from catastrophe losses
    8.1       3.8       22.0  
Prior accident years before catastrophe losses
    (4.9 )     (4.6 )     (5.8 )
 
                 
GAAP combined ratio excluding catastrophe losses and prior years reserve development
    103.2 %     102.7 %     102.5 %
 
                 
Dollar amounts shown are rounded to millions; certain amounts may not add due to rounding. Ratios are calculated based on whole dollar amounts.
 
*   Consolidated property casualty data includes results from our surplus line of business.

10

EX-99.2 3 l37843exv99w2.htm EX-99.2 exv99w2
Exhibit 99.2
Cincinnati Financial Corporation
Supplemental Financial Data
September 30, 2009
Third Quarter
6200 South Gilmore Road
Fairfield, Ohio 45014-5141
www.cinfin.com
         
Investor Contact:   Media Contact:   Shareholder Contact:
Dennis E. McDaniel   Joan O. Shevchik   Jerry L. Litton
(513) 870-2768   (513) 603-5323   (513) 870-2639
                                 
                            Standard &
    A.M. Best   Fitch   Moody’s   Poor’s
 
                               
Cincinnati Financial Corporation
                               
Corporate Debt
    a     BBB+     A3     BBB+
 
                               
The Cincinnati Insurance Companies
                               
Insurer Financial Strength
                               
 
                               
Property Casualty Group
                               
Standard Market Subsidiaries:
    A+             A1       A+  
The Cincinnati Insurance Company
    A+       A+       A1       A+  
The Cincinnati Indemnity Company
    A+       A+       A1       A+  
The Cincinnati Casualty Company
    A+       A+       A1       A+  
Surplus Lines Subsidiary:
                               
The Cincinnati Specialty Underwriters Insurance Company
    A                    
 
                               
The Cincinnati Life Insurance Company
    A     AA-           A+  
Ratings are as of October 28, 2009, under continuous review and subject to change and/or affirmation. For the current ratings, select Financial Strength Ratings on www.cinfin.com.
The consolidated financial statements and financial exhibits that follow are unaudited. These consolidated financial statements and exhibits should be read in conjunction with the consolidated financial statements and notes included our periodic filings with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. The results of operations for interim periods may not be indicative of results to be expected for the full year.

 


 

Cincinnati Financial Corporation
Supplemental Financial Data
Third Quarter 2009
     
    Page
Definitions of Non-GAAP Information and Reconciliation to Comparable GAAP Measures
  3
 
   
Consolidated
   
Quick Reference
  4
CFC and Subsidiaries Consolidation — Nine Months Ended September 30, 2009
  5
CFC and Subsidiaries Consolidation — Three Months Ended September 30, 2009
  6
Quarterly Net Income Reconciliation
  7
CFC Insurance Subsidiaries — Selected Balance Sheet Data
  8
 
   
Consolidated Property Casualty Insurance Operations
(Includes Cincinnati Specialty Underwriters Insurance Company (CSU))
   
Statutory Statements of Income
  9
Statutory Quarterly Analysis — Consolidated
  10
Statutory Quarterly Analysis — Commercial Lines
  11
Statutory Quarterly Analysis — Personal Lines
  12
Direct Written Premiums by Line of Business and State
  13
Quarterly Property Casualty Data — Commercial Lines of Business
  14
Quarterly Property Casualty Data — Personal Lines of Business
  15
Quarterly Detailed Loss Analysis
  16
Loss and Loss Expense Analysis
  17
 
   
Reconciliation Data
   
Quarterly Property Casualty Data — Consolidated
  18
Quarterly Property Casualty Data — Commercial Lines
  19
Quarterly Property Casualty Data — Personal Lines
  20
 
   
Life Insurance Operations
   
Statutory Statements of Income
  21

 


 

Definitions of Non-GAAP Information and
Reconciliation to Comparable GAAP Measures
Cincinnati Financial Corporation prepares its public financial statements in conformity with accounting principles generally accepted in the United States of America (GAAP). Statutory data is prepared in accordance with statutory accounting rules as defined by the National Association of Insurance Commissioners’ (NAIC) Accounting Practices and Procedures Manual and therefore is not reconciled to GAAP data.
Management uses certain non-GAAP and non-statutory financial measures to evaluate its primary business areas — property casualty insurance, life insurance and investments. Management uses these measures when analyzing both GAAP and non-GAAP measures may improve its understanding of trends in the underlying business and help avoid incorrect or misleading assumptions and conclusions about the success or failure of company strategies. Management adjustments to GAAP measures generally: apply to non-recurring events that are unrelated to business performance and distort short-term results; involve values that fluctuate based on events outside of management’s control; or relate to accounting refinements that affect comparability between periods, creating a need to analyze data on the same basis.
  Operating income: Operating income is calculated by excluding net realized investment gains and losses (defined as realized investment gains and losses after applicable federal and state income taxes) from net income. Management evaluates operating income to measure the success of pricing, rate and underwriting strategies. While realized investment gains (or losses) are integral to the company’s insurance operations over the long term, the determination to realize investment gains or losses in any period may be subject to management’s discretion and is independent of the insurance underwriting process. Also, under applicable GAAP accounting requirements, gains and losses can be recognized from certain changes in market values of securities without actual realization. Management believes that the level of realized investment gains or losses for any particular period, while it may be material, may not fully indicate the performance of ongoing underlying business operations in that period.
For these reasons, many investors and shareholders consider operating income to be one of the more meaningful measures for evaluating insurance company performance. Equity analysts who report on the insurance industry and the company generally focus on this metric in their analyses. The company presents operating income so that all investors have what management believes to be a useful supplement to GAAP information.
 
  Statutory accounting rules: For public reporting, insurance companies prepare financial statements in accordance with GAAP. However, insurers also must calculate certain data according to statutory accounting rules as defined in the NAIC’s Accounting Practices and Procedures Manual, which may be, and has been, modified by various state insurance departments. Statutory data is publicly available, and various organizations use it to calculate aggregate industry data, study industry trends and compare insurance companies.
 
  Written premium: Under statutory accounting rules, property casualty written premium is the amount recorded for policies issued and recognized on an annualized basis at the effective date of the policy. Management analyzes trends in written premium to assess business efforts. Earned premium, used in both statutory and GAAP accounting, is calculated ratably over the policy term. The difference between written and earned premium is unearned premium.
 
  Written premium adjustment — statutory basis only: In 2002, the company refined its estimation process for matching property casualty written premiums to policy effective dates, which added $117 million to 2002 written premiums. To better assess ongoing business trends, management may exclude this adjustment when analyzing trends in written premiums and statutory ratios that make use of written premiums.
         
    2009 Third-Quarter Supplement   3

 


 

Cincinnati Financial Corporation
Quick Reference — Third Quarter 2009
(all data shown is for the three months ended or as of September 30, 2009)
(Based on reported data — see Pages 14-16 for adjusted data)
                 
            Year over year  
    9/30/2009     change %  
Revenues:
               
 
               
Commercial lines net written premiums
  $ 528       (1.8 )
Personal lines net written premiums
    190       3.2  
Surplus lines net written premiums
    12       159.1  
Property casualty net written premiums
    730       0.5  
Commercial lines net earned premiums
    555       (4.7 )
Personal lines net earned premiums
    170       1.8  
Surplus lines net earned premiums
    8       442.0  
Property casualty net earned premiums
    733       (2.4 )
Life and accident and health net earned premiums
    33       10.7  
Investment income
    127       (2.4 )
Realized gains on investments
    110       (59.7 )
Other income
    4       30.2  
Total revenues
    1,007       (15.1 )
 
               
Income:
               
 
               
Operating income
  $ 96       30.7  
Net realized investment gains and losses
    75       (57.2 )
Net income
    171       (31.0 )
 
               
Per share (diluted):
               
 
               
Operating income
  $ 0.59       31.9  
Net realized investment gains and losses
    0.46       (56.8 )
Net income
    1.05       (30.0 )
Book value
    28.44       (1.5 )
Weighted average shares — diluted
    162,901,396       (0.8 )
 
               
Benefits and expenses:
               
 
               
Commercial lines loss and loss expenses
  $ 329       (11.5 )
Personal lines loss and loss expenses
    125       (17.2 )
Surplus lines loss and loss expenses
    5       nm  
Life and accident and health losses and policy benefits
    40       (1.0 )
Underwriting, acquisition and insurance expenses
    247       (0.5 )
Operating expenses
    4       22.4  
Interest expenses
    14       (1.9 )
Total expenses
    763       (8.0 )
Net income before income taxes
    244       (31.6 )
Total income tax benefit
    73       (33.1 )
 
               
Ratios:
               
 
               
Commercial lines GAAP combined ratio
    92.4 %        
Personal lines GAAP combined ratio
    102.3          
Property casualty GAAP combined ratio
    95.1          
 
               
Commercial lines STAT combined ratio
    94.9 %        
Personal lines STAT combined ratio
    102.8          
Property casualty STAT combined ratio
    96.9          
 
               
Balance Sheet:
               
 
               
Fixed maturity investments
  $ 7,668          
Equity securities
    2,669          
Short-term investments
    12          
Other invested assets
    79          
 
             
Total invested assets
  $ 10,428          
 
             
 
               
Loss and loss expense reserves
  $ 4,195          
Total debt
    839          
Shareholders’ equity
    4,626          
         
    2009 Third-Quarter Supplement   4

 


 

Cincinnati Financial Corporation and Subsidiaries
Consolidated Statements of Income for the Nine Months Ended September 30, 2009
                                                                 
(Dollars in millions)   CFC   CONSOL P&C   CLIC   CFC-I   CINFIN   C-SUPR   ELIM   Total
Revenues:
                                                               
Premiums earned:
                                                               
Property Casualty
  $     $ 2,327     $     $  —     $  —     $  —     $  —     $ 2,326  
Life
                134                               134  
Accident health
                5                               5  
Premiums ceded
          (129 )     (36 )                             (165 )
Total earned premium
          2,198       103                               2,301  
Investment income
    31       248       90                         1       370  
Realized gain on investments
    88       36       (33 )           (1 )                 90  
Other income
    11       4       1       5             3       (14 )     9  
Total revenues
  $ 130     $ 2,486     $ 161     $ 5     $ (1 )   $ 3     $ (13 )   $ 2,770  
 
                                                               
Benefits & expenses:
                                                               
Losses & policy benefits
  $     $ 1,683     $ 147     $     $     $     $ (4 )   $ 1,826  
Reinsurance recoveries
          (60 )     (29 )                             (89 )
Underwriting, acquisition and insurance expenses
          716       34                               750  
Other operating expenses
    19                   3             3       (11 )     14  
Interest expense
    39                   2                         42  
Total expenses
  $ 58     $ 2,339     $ 152     $ 5     $     $ 3     $ (15 )   $ 2,543  
 
                                                               
Income (loss) before income taxes
  $ 71     $ 148     $ 9     $     $ (1 )   $     $ 1     $ 227  
 
                                                               
Provision (benefit) for income taxes:
                                                               
Current operating income
  $ (15 )   $ (8 )   $ (3 )   $     $     $     $     $ (25 )
Capital gains/losses
    31       13       (12 )                             31  
Deferred
    4       12       17                               34  
Total provision for income taxes
  $ 19     $ 17     $ 3     $     $     $     $     $ 40  
 
                                                               
Operating income (loss)
  $ (5 )   $ 107     $ 27     $     $     $     $ 1     $ 128  
 
                                                               
Net income (loss) — current year
  $ 52     $ 131     $ 5     $     $ (1 )   $     $ 1     $ 187  
 
                                                               
Net income (loss) — prior year
  $ (70 )   $ 271     $ (20 )   $ 1     $     $ (1 )   $ 87     $ 268  
 
*   Dollar amounts shown are rounded to millions; certain amounts may not add due to rounding. Ratios are calculated based on whole dollar amounts.
         
    2009 Third-Quarter Supplement   5

 


 

Cincinnati Financial Corporation and Subsidiaries
Consolidated Statements of Income for the Three Months Ended September 30, 2009
                                                                 
(Dollars in millions)   CFC   CONSOL P&C   CLIC   CFC-I   CINFIN   C-SUPR   ELIM   Total
Revenues:
                                                               
Premiums earned:
                                                               
Property Casualty
  $  —     $ 776     $  —     $  —     $  —     $  —     $     $ 776  
Life
                43                               43  
Accident health
                2                               2  
Premiums ceded
          (43 )     (12 )                             (55 )
Total earned premium
          733       33                               766  
Investment income
    11       85       31                               127  
Realized gain on investments
    21       90       (1 )                             110  
Other income
    4       2             2             1       (5 )     4  
Total revenues
  $ 36     $ 910     $ 63     $ 2     $     $ 1     $ (5 )   $ 1,007  
 
                                                               
Benefits & expenses:
                                                               
Losses & policy benefits
  $     $ 488     $ 48     $     $     $     $ (1 )   $ 535  
Reinsurance recoveries
          (29 )     (8 )                             (37 )
Underwriting, acquisition and insurance expenses
          238       10                               247  
Other operating expenses
    6                   1             1       (4 )     4  
Interest expense
    13                   1                         14  
Total expenses
  $ 19     $ 697     $ 50     $ 2     $     $ 1     $ (5 )   $ 763  
 
                                                               
Income before income taxes
  $ 17     $ 213     $ 13     $     $     $     $     $ 244  
 
                                                               
Provision (benefit) for income taxes:
                                                               
Current operating income
  $ (4 )   $ 25     $ 2     $     $     $     $     $ 23  
Capital gains/losses
    7       31       (3 )                             36  
Deferred
    1       8       6                               14  
Total provision for income taxes
  $ 4     $ 64     $ 5     $     $     $     $     $ 73  
 
                                                               
Operating income (loss)
  $ (1 )   $ 90     $ 7     $     $     $     $     $ 97  
 
                                                               
Net income — current year
  $ 13     $ 149     $ 8     $     $     $     $     $ 171  
 
                                                               
Net income (loss) — prior year
  $ (44 )   $ 228     $ (24 )   $     $     $     $ 87     $ 247  
 
*   Dollar amounts shown are rounded to millions; certain amounts may not add due to rounding. Ratios are calculated based on whole dollar amounts.
         
    2009 Third-Quarter Supplement   6

 


 

Cincinnati Financial Corporation
Quarterly Net Income Reconciliation
                                                                                                                       
                            Three months ended                             Six months ended     Nine months ended     Twelve months ended
(Dollars in millions except per share data)   12/31/09   9/30/09   6/30/09   3/31/09   12/31/08   9/30/08   6/30/08   3/31/08     6/30/09   6/30/08     9/30/09   9/30/08     12/31/09   12/31/08
 
                                                                                                                     
Net income (loss)
          $ 171     $ (19 )   $ 35     $ 161     $ 247     $ 63     $ (42 )     $ 17     $ 21       $ 187     $ 268               $ 429  
Net realized investment gains and losses
            75       (14 )     (2 )     69       173       (6 )     (151 )       (15 )     (157 )       58       16                 85  
                   
Operating income (loss)
            96       (5 )     37       92       74       69       109         32       178         129       252                 344  
Less catastrophe losses
            (4 )     (77 )     (34 )     10       (41 )     (74 )     (28 )       (111 )     (101 )       (115 )     (142 )               (132 )
                   
Operating income before catastrophe losses
          $ 100     $ 72     $ 71     $ 82     $ 115     $ 143     $ 137       $ 143     $ 279       $ 244     $ 394               $ 476  
                   
Diluted per share data
                                                                                                                     
Net income (loss)
          $ 1.05     $ (0.12 )   $ 0.22     $ 0.99     $ 1.50     $ 0.38     $ (0.26 )     $ 0.10     $ 0.13       $ 1.15     $ 1.64               $ 2.62  
Net realized investment gains and losses
            0.46       (0.09 )     (0.01 )     0.42       1.05       (0.04 )     (0.92 )       (0.10 )     (0.95 )       0.36       0.10                 0.52  
                   
Operating income (loss)
            0.59       (0.03 )     0.23       0.57       0.45       0.42       0.66         0.20       1.08         0.79       1.54                 2.10  
Less catastrophe losses
            (0.03 )     (0.47 )     (0.21 )     0.06       (0.25 )     (0.45 )     (0.17 )       (0.68 )     (0.62 )       (0.71 )     (0.87 )               (0.81 )
                   
Operating income before catastrophe losses
          $ 0.62     $ 0.44     $ 0.44     $ 0.51     $ 0.70     $ 0.87     $ 0.83       $ 0.88     $ 1.70       $ 1.50     $ 2.41               $ 2.91  
                   
Dollar amounts shown are rounded to millions; certain amounts may not add due to rounding. Ratios are calculated based on whole dollar amounts. The sum of quarterly amounts may not equal the full year as each is computed independently.
         
    2009 Third-Quarter Supplement   7

 


 

Cincinnati Financial Corporation Insurance Subsidiaries
Selected Balance Sheet Data
                                                                 
(Dollars in millions)   12/31/2009   9/30/2009   6/30/2009   3/31/2009   12/31/2008   9/30/2008   6/30/2008   3/31/2008
Cincinnati Insurance Consolidated (including CSU)
                                                               
Fixed maturities (fair value)
          $ 5,521     $ 5,169     $ 4,804     $ 4,309     $ 4,183     $ 4,304     $ 4,351  
Equities (fair value)
            2,477       2,247       1,986       2,432       3,210       3,537       4,226  
Short-term investments (fair value)
            10       11       13       19       162             51  
Fixed maturities — pretax net unrealized gain (loss)
            301       25       (36 )     (108 )     (132 )     (33 )     39  
Equities — pretax net unrealized gain
            594       487       347       627       1,012       1,227       1,831  
Loss and loss expense reserves — STAT
            3,656       3,674       3,555       3,494       3,507       3,534       3,448  
Equity GAAP
            4,283       3,795       3,512       3,667       3,947       4,011       4,498  
Surplus — STAT
            3,472       3,241       3,105       3,360       3,687       3,650       4,027  
 
                                                               
The Cincinnati Life Insurance Company
                                                               
Fixed maturities (fair value)
          $ 1,868     $ 1,694     $ 1,534     $ 1,467     $ 1,483     $ 1,551     $ 1,534  
Equities (fair value)
            123       103       89       122       200       265       307  
Short-term investments (fair value)
            1       1                                
Fixed maturities — pretax net unrealized gain (loss)
            67       (43 )     (94 )     (115 )     (79 )     (35 )      
Equities — pretax net unrealized gain (loss)
            11       (8 )     (27 )     (7 )     61       92       127  
Equity — GAAP
            653       563       454       471       530       617       661  
Surplus — STAT
            283       270       254       290       371       420       453  
                                                                 
    12/31/2007   9/30/2007   6/30/2007   3/31/2007   12/31/2006   9/30/2006   6/30/2006   3/31/2006
Cincinnati Insurance Consolidated (including CSU)
                                                               
Fixed maturities (fair value)
  $ 4,295     $ 4,366     $ 4,367     $ 4,362     $ 4,296     $ 4,258     $ 4,160     $ 4,189  
Equities (fair value)
    4,595       5,201       5,411       5,472       5,494       5,134       4,827       4,946  
Short-term investments (fair value)
    50       19       72       3       92                   126  
Fixed maturities — pretax net unrealized gain (loss)
    58       23       (30 )     44       47       51       (55 )     2  
Equities — pretax net unrealized gain
    2,077       2,657       2,917       3,017       3,166       2,859       2,621       2,758  
Loss and loss expense reserves — STAT
    3,398       3,461       3,374       3,373       3,356       3,314       3,237       3,169  
Equity GAAP
    4,784       5,282       5,404       5,272       5,261       5,073       4,702       4,730  
Surplus — STAT
    4,307       4,782       4,937       4,741       4,723       4,607       4,342       4,334  
 
                                                               
The Cincinnati Life Insurance Company Fixed maturities (fair value)
  $ 1,465     $ 1,475     $ 1,415     $ 1,384     $ 1,381     $ 1,399     $ 1,344     $ 1,338  
Equities (fair value)
    371       459       478       539       532       494       458       470  
Short-term investments (fair value)
    51       18       29       16       3                   20  
Fixed maturities — pretax net unrealized gain (loss)
    6       4       (4 )     20       15       17       (17 )     6  
Equities — pretax net unrealized gain (loss)
    162       225       254       305       307       271       238       256  
Equity — GAAP
    685       724       730       739       719       688       652       666  
Surplus — STAT
    477       485       491       483       479       461       459       470  
         
    2009 Third-Quarter Supplement   8

 


 

Consolidated Cincinnati Insurance Companies
Statutory Statements of Income
                                                                     
      For the Three Months Ended September 30,     For the Nine Months Ended September 30,
(Dollars in millions)     2009   2008   Change   % Change     2009   2008   Change   % Change
Underwriting income
                                                                   
Net premiums written
    $ 730     $ 727     $ 3       0.5       $ 2,231     $ 2,292     $ (62 )     (2.7 )
Unearned premiums increase
      (3 )     (24 )     21       (88.0 )       33       30       3       10.6  
Earned premiums
    $ 733     $ 751     $ (18 )     (2.4 )     $ 2,198     $ 2,263     $ (65 )     (2.9 )
 
                                                                   
Losses incurred
    $ 368     $ 456     $ (88 )     (19.4 )     $ 1,350     $ 1,353     $ (3 )     (0.2 )
Allocated loss expenses incurred
      45       19       26       137.2         130       89       41       46.2  
Unallocated loss expenses incurred
      47       48       (1 )     (2.3 )       143       140       3       2.0  
Other underwriting expenses incurred
      246       238       9       3.7         709       697       12       1.7  
Workers compensation dividend incurred
      3       3       0       0.8         13       5       8       177.8  
 
                                                                   
Total underwriting deductions
    $ 709     $ 764     $ (55 )     (7.2 )     $ 2,344     $ 2,283     $ 61       2.7  
Net underwriting gain (loss)
    $ 24     $ (13 )   $ 37       nm       $ (146 )   $ (20 )   $ (126 )     625.5  
 
                                                                   
Investment income
                                                                   
Gross investment income earned
    $ 888     $ 85     $ 803       945.3       $ 255     $ 270     $ (15 )     (5.6 )
Net investment income earned
      87       84       3       3.6         251       266       (15 )     (5.7 )
Net realized capital gains
      54       171       (117 )     (68.2 )       15       77       (62 )     (80.2 )
Net investment gains (excl. subs)
    $ 141     $ 255     $ (114 )     (44.6 )     $ 266     $ 343     $ (77 )     (22.4 )
Dividend from subsidiary
                                                   
Net investment gains (net of tax)
    $ 141     $ 255     $ (114 )     (44.6 )     $ 266     $ 343     $ (77 )     (22.4 )
 
                                                                   
Other income
    $ 2     $ 1     $ 1       145.4       $ 4     $ 2     $ 2       122.0  
 
                                                                   
Net income before federal income taxes
    $ 167     $ 242     $ (76 )     (31.3 )     $ 124     $ 325     $ (200 )     (61.7 )
Federal and foreign income taxes incurred
    $ 25     $ 83     $ (59 )     (70.5 )     $ (6 )   $ 168     $ (173 )   nm  
Net income (loss) (statutory)
    $ 142     $ 159     $ (17 )     (10.8 )     $ 130     $ 157     $ (27 )     (17.2 )
 
*   Dollar amounts shown are rounded to millions; certain amounts may not add due to rounding. Ratios are calculated based on whole dollar amounts.
 
*   Statutory data prepared in accordance with statutory accounting rules as defined by the National Association of Insurance Commissioners and filed with the appropriate regulatory bodies.
         
    2009 Third-Quarter Supplement   9

 


 

Consolidated Cincinnati Insurance Companies — All Lines
Statutory Quarterly Analysis
(Based on reported data — see Page 18 for adjusted data)
                                                                                                                       
    Three months ended     Six months ended     Nine months ended     Twelve months ended
(Dollars in millions)   12/31/09   9/30/09   6/30/09   3/31/09   12/31/08   9/30/08   6/30/08   3/31/08     6/30/09   6/30/08     9/30/09   9/30/08     12/31/09   12/31/08
Net premiums written
          $ 730     $ 723     $ 778     $ 717     $ 727     $ 790     $ 776       $ 1,501     $ 1,566       $ 2,231     $ 2,292               $ 3,010  
Net premiums earned
          $ 733     $ 733     $ 732     $ 747     $ 751     $ 761     $ 751       $ 1,465     $ 1,512       $ 2,198     $ 2,263               $ 3,010  
Losses paid
          $ 390     $ 412     $ 401     $ 383     $ 467     $ 396     $ 383       $ 813     $ 778       $ 1,203     $ 1,245               $ 1,629  
Loss reserve change
            (22 )     112       56       (1 )     (11 )     83       35         169       119         147       108                 107  
Total losses incurred
          $ 368     $ 524     $ 457     $ 382     $ 456     $ 479     $ 418       $ 982     $ 897       $ 1,350     $ 1,353               $ 1,736  
Allocated loss expense paid
            37       42       30       39       35       32       25         71       58         108       93                 131  
Allocated loss expense reserve change
            8       7       6       (12 )     (16 )     1       12         14       12         22       (4 )               (16 )
Total allocated loss expense incurred
          $ 45     $ 49     $ 36     $ 27     $ 19     $ 33     $ 37       $ 85     $ 70       $ 130     $ 89               $ 115  
Unallocated loss expense paid
            46       42       48       62       47       43       43         91       86         137       133                 195  
Unallocated loss expense reserve change
                  4       2       3       1       3       3         5       6         6       7                 10  
Total unallocated loss expense incurred
          $ 46     $ 46     $ 50     $ 65     $ 48     $ 46     $ 46       $ 96     $ 92       $ 143     $ 140               $ 205  
Underwriting expenses incurred
            250       232       240       264       241       223       238         472       460         721       701                 971  
                   
Underwriting (loss) profit
          $ 24     $ (118 )   $ (51 )   $ 9     $ (13 )   $ (20 )   $ 12       $ (170 )   $ (7 )     $ (146 )   $ (20 )             $ (17 )
                   
Ratio Data
                                                                                                                     
Loss ratio
            50.2 %     71.6 %     62.5 %     51.2 %     60.8 %     63.0 %     55.6 %       67.0 %     59.3 %       61.4 %     59.8 %               57.7 %
Allocated loss expense ratio
            6.1       6.7       4.9       3.5       2.5       4.3       5.0         5.8       4.6         5.9       3.9                 3.8  
Unallocated loss expense ratio
            6.4       6.3       6.8       8.7       6.4       6.1       6.1         6.6       6.1         6.5       6.2                 6.8  
Net underwriting expense ratio
            34.2       32.0       30.9       36.8       33.1       28.1       30.6         31.4       29.3         32.4       30.6                 32.1  
                   
Statutory combined ratio
            96.9 %     116.6 %     105.1 %     100.2 %     102.8 %     101.5 %     97.3 %       110.8 %     99.3 %       106.2 %     100.5 %               100.4 %
Statutory combined ratio excluding catastrophes
            96.0 %     100.5 %     97.9 %     102.3 %     94.4 %     86.6 %     91.5 %       99.2 %     89.0 %       98.1 %     90.8 %               93.6 %
                   
Loss Detail
                                                                                                                     
New losses greater than $4,000,000
          $ 18     $ 20     $ 9     $ 10     $ 10     $ 18     $       $ 30     $ 26       $ 48     $ 36               $ 46  
New losses $2,000,000-$4,000,000
            24       21       17       19       17       25       22         39       39         63       56                 75  
New losses $1,000,000-$2,000,000
            19       18       11       22       33       17       22         28       39         47       72                 94  
New losses $750,000-$1,000,000
            8       7       11       12       14       13       9         19       21         27       35                 48  
New losses $500,000-$750,000
            18       9       16       16       16       13       11         24       24         42       40                 56  
New losses $250,000-$500,000
            29       31       35       35       33       27       29         66       57         95       90                 124  
Case reserve development above $250,000
            51       70       56       82       59       54       49         125       103         177       162                 245  
                   
Large losses subtotal
          $ 167     $ 176     $ 155     $ 196     $ 182     $ 167     $ 142       $ 331     $ 309       $ 499     $ 491               $ 688  
IBNR incurred
            12       39       18       (16 )     (6 )     (6 )     6         57               69       (6 )               (22 )
Catastrophe losses incurred
            7       118       53       (16 )     63       113       43         171       156         177       219                 203  
Remaining incurred
            182       191       231       218       217       205       227         423       432         605       649                 867  
                   
Total losses incurred
          $ 368     $ 524     $ 457     $ 382     $ 456     $ 479     $ 418       $ 982     $ 897       $ 1,350     $ 1,353               $ 1,736  
                   
Loss Ratio
                                                                                                                     
New losses greater than $4,000,000
            2.5 %     2.8 %     1.3 %     1.3 %     1.3 %     2.4 %     0.0 %       2.0 %     1.7 %       2.2 %     1.6 %               1.5 %
New losses $2,000,000-$4,000,000
            3.3       2.9       2.4       2.5       2.2       3.3       2.9         2.6       2.6         2.9       2.5                 2.5  
New losses $1,000,000-$2,000,000
            2.6       2.4       1.4       2.9       4.4       2.2       2.9         1.9       2.6         2.1       3.0                 3.1  
New losses $750,000-$1,000,000
            1.2       1.0       1.5       1.6       1.9       1.7       1.1         1.3       1.4         1.2       1.6                 1.6  
New losses $500,000-$750,000
            2.4       1.2       2.1       2.2       2.1       1.7       1.5         1.7       1.6         1.9       1.8                 1.9  
New losses $250,000-$500,000
            3.9       4.2       4.8       4.6       4.4       3.6       3.9         4.5       3.7         4.3       4.0                 4.1  
Case reserve development above $250,000
            7.0       9.6       7.6       11.0       7.9       7.1       6.5         8.5       6.9         8.0       7.2                 8.1  
                   
Large losses subtotal
            22.9 %     24.1 %     21.1 %     26.1 %     24.2 %     22.0 %     18.8 %       22.5 %     20.5 %       22.6 %     21.7 %               22.8 %
IBNR incurred
            1.7       5.3       2.5       (2.1 )     (0.8 )     (0.9 )     0.8         3.9       0.0         3.2       (0.3 )               (0.7 )
Total catastrophe losses incurred
            0.9       16.1       7.2       (2.1 )     8.4       14.9       5.7         11.6       10.3         8.1       9.7                 6.8  
Remaining incurred
            24.7       26.1       31.7       29.3       29.0       27.0       30.2         29.0       28.5         27.5       28.7                 28.8  
                   
Total loss ratio
            50.2 %     71.6 %     62.5 %     51.2 %     60.8 %     63.0 %     55.5 %       67.0 %     59.3 %       61.4 %     59.8 %               57.7 %
                   
Loss Claim Count
                                                                                                                     
New losses greater than $4,000,000
            4       4       2       2       2       5       2         6       7         10       9                 11  
New losses $2,000,000-$4,000,000
            10       8       7       7       6       8       5         15       13         25       19                 26  
New losses $1,000,000-$2,000,000
            16       14       9       17       27       13       19         23       32         39       59                 76  
New losses $750,000-$1,000,000
            10       8       13       14       17       15       10         21       25         31       42                 56  
New losses $500,000-$750,000
            31       14       28       28       28       23       21         42       44         73       72                 100  
New losses $250,000-$500,000
            89       92       108       105       100       84       87         200       171         289       271                 376  
Case reserve development above $250,000
            81       108       89       146       102       84       81         197       165         278       267                 413  
                   
Large losses total
            241       248       256       319       282       232       225         504       457         745       739                 1,058  
                   
*   Dollar amounts shown are rounded to millions; certain amounts may not add due to rounding. Ratios are calculated based on whole dollar amounts. The sum of quarterly amounts may not equal the full year as each is computed independently.
*   nm Not meaningful
*   Statutory data prepared in accordance with statutory accounting rules as defined by the National Association of Insurance Commissioners and filed with the appropriate regulatory bodies.
 
  2009 Third-Quarter Supplement 10


 

Consolidated Cincinnati Insurance Companies — Commercial Lines
Statutory Quarterly Analysis
(Based on reported data — see Page 19 for adjusted data)
                                                                                                                       
    Three months ended     Six months ended     Nine months ended     Twelve months ended
(Dollars in millions)   12/31/09   9/30/09   6/30/09   3/31/09   12/31/08   9/30/08   6/30/08   3/31/08     6/30/09   6/30/08     9/30/09   9/30/08     12/31/09   12/31/08
Net premiums written
          $ 528     $ 524     $ 626     $ 552     $ 538     $ 597     $ 625       $ 1,149     $ 1,222       $ 1,678     $ 1,759               $ 2,311  
Net premiums earned
          $ 555     $ 556     $ 557     $ 573     $ 582     $ 586     $ 574       $ 1,112     $ 1,161       $ 1,667     $ 1,743               $ 2,316  
 
                                                                                                                     
Losses paid
          $ 267     $ 275     $ 271     $ 262     $ 326     $ 280     $ 266       $ 546     $ 546       $ 813     $ 871               $ 1,133  
Loss reserve change
            (11 )     92       50       26       (3 )     67       32         142       100         131       97                 123  
Total losses incurred
          $ 256     $ 367     $ 321     $ 288     $ 323     $ 347     $ 298       $ 688     $ 646       $ 944     $ 968               $ 1,256  
Allocated loss expense paid
            33       39       26       35       31       28       22         64       50         97       82                 116  
Allocated loss expense reserve change
            7       5       6       (13 )     (15 )     1       12         11       13         18       (3 )               (16 )
Total allocated loss expense incurred
          $ 40     $ 44     $ 32     $ 22     $ 16     $ 29     $ 34       $ 75     $ 63       $ 115     $ 79               $ 100  
Unallocated loss expense paid
            33       28       34       42       34       31       30         62       61         95       95                 137  
Unallocated loss expense reserve change
                  3       2       7       (1 )     1       3         5       4         5       4                 10  
Total unallocated loss expense incurred
          $ 33     $ 31     $ 36     $ 49     $ 33     $ 32     $ 33       $ 67     $ 65       $ 100     $ 99               $ 147  
Underwriting expenses incurred
            188       170       183       204       180       166       186         353       352         541       532                 742  
                   
Underwriting (loss) profit
          $ 38     $ (56 )   $ (15 )   $ 10     $ 30     $ 12     $ 23       $ (71 )   $ 35       $ (33 )   $ 65               $ 71  
                   
Ratio Data
                                                                                                                     
Loss ratio
            46.2 %     66.0 %     57.6 %     50.3 %     55.4 %     59.2 %     52.0 %       61.8 %     55.6 %       56.7 %     55.5 %               54.2 %
Allocated loss expense ratio
            7.1       7.8       5.8       3.8       2.7       5.0       5.9         6.8       5.4         6.9       4.5                 4.3  
Unallocated loss expense ratio
            6.0       5.7       6.4       8.4       5.7       5.5       5.7         6.0       5.7         6.0       5.7                 6.4  
Net underwriting expense ratio
            35.6       32.5       29.2       36.5       33.5       27.8       29.7         30.8       28.8         32.2       30.2                 31.7  
                   
Statutory combined ratio
            94.9 %     112.0 %     99.0 %     99.0 %     97.3 %     97.5 %     93.3 %       105.4 %     95.5 %       101.8 %     95.9 %               96.6 %
Statutory combined ratio excluding catastrophes
            96.1 %     101.7 %     96.5 %     100.5 %     93.3 %     86.2 %     89.4 %       99.0 %     87.8 %       98.0 %     89.5 %               92.2 %
                   
Loss Detail
                                                                                                                     
New losses greater than $4,000,000
          $ 13     $ 21     $ 9     $ 10     $ 5     $ 18     $       $ 30     $ 26       $ 43     $ 31               $ 41  
New losses $2,000,000-$4,000,000
            19       22       17       19       17       25       22         38       40         58       56                 75  
New losses $1,000,000-$2,000,000
            14       15       9       18       26       15       18         24       33         38       60                 78  
New losses $750,000-$1,000,000
            7       7       9       10       12       11       8         16       19         23       31                 41  
New losses $500,000-$750,000
            15       7       12       11       14       12       9         19       20         34       34                 45  
New losses $250,000-$500,000
            22       24       26       28       25       22       23         51       45         72       70                 98  
Case reserve development above $250,000
            49       63       51       76       57       51       44         114       96         163       153                 229  
                   
Large losses subtotal
          $ 139     $ 159     $ 133     $ 172     $ 156     $ 154     $ 124       $ 292     $ 279       $ 431     $ 435               $ 607  
IBNR incurred
            11       38       18       (12 )     (7 )     (8 )     6         56       (2 )       67       (10 )               (22 )
Catastrophe losses incurred
            (7 )     57       14       (9 )     23       66       22         71       89         64       112                 103  
Remaining incurred
            113       113       156       137       151       135       146         269       280         382       431                 568  
                   
Total losses incurred
          $ 256     $ 367     $ 321     $ 288     $ 323     $ 347     $ 298       $ 688     $ 646       $ 944     $ 968               $ 1,256  
                   
Loss Ratio
                                                                                                                     
New losses greater than $4,000,000
            2.4 %     3.7 %     1.7 %     1.8 %     0.9 %     3.1 %     0.0 %       2.7 %     2.3 %       2.6 %     1.8 %               1.8 %
New losses $2,000,000-$4,000,000
            3.5       3.9       3.1       3.2       2.9       4.3       3.9         3.5       3.4         3.5       3.2                 3.2  
New losses $1,000,000-$2,000,000
            2.6       2.6       1.6       3.1       4.5       2.5       3.2         2.1       2.9         2.3       3.4                 3.4  
New losses $750,000-$1,000,000
            1.2       1.3       1.6       1.7       2.1       1.9       1.3         1.5       1.6         1.4       1.8                 1.8  
New losses $500,000-$750,000
            2.7       1.3       2.1       2.0       2.3       2.0       1.5         1.7       1.7         2.1       1.9                 2.0  
New losses $250,000-$500,000
            3.9       4.4       4.7       4.9       4.3       3.8       4.0         4.5       3.9         4.3       4.0                 4.2  
Case reserve development above $250,000
            8.8       11.4       9.1       13.2       9.8       8.7       7.8         10.3       8.3         9.8       8.8                 9.9  
                   
Large losses subtotal
            25.1 %     28.6 %     23.9 %     29.9 %     26.8 %     26.3 %     21.7 %       26.3 %     24.0 %       26.0 %     24.9 %               26.3 %
IBNR incurred
            2.0       6.7       3.3       (2.1 )     (1.3 )     (1.4 )     1.0         5.0       (0.2 )       4.0       (0.6 )               (0.9 )
Total catastrophe losses incurred
            (1.2 )     10.3       2.5       (1.5 )     4.0       11.3       3.9         6.4       7.7         3.8       6.4                 4.5  
Remaining incurred
            20.3       20.4       27.9       24.0       25.9       23.0       25.4         24.1       24.2         22.9       24.8                 24.3  
                   
Total loss ratio
            46.2 %     66.0 %     57.6 %     50.3 %     55.4 %     59.2 %     52.0 %       61.8 %     55.7 %       56.7 %     55.5 %               54.2 %
                   
Loss Claim Count
                                                                                                                     
New losses greater than $4,000,000
            3       4       2       2       1       4       2         6       4         9       7                 9  
New losses $2,000,000-$4,000,000
            8       8       7       7       6       9       5         15       14         23       20                 27  
New losses $1,000,000-$2,000,000
            12       11       8       14       21       12       16         19       22         31       49                 63  
New losses $750,000-$1,000,000
            8       8       10       11       15       13       9         18       21         26       37                 48  
New losses $500,000-$750,000
            26       12       21       19       24       21       16         33       40         59       61                 80  
New losses $250,000-$500,000
            67       72       81       85       74       67       68         153       166         220       209                 294  
Case reserve development above $250,000
            74       93       77       129       95       76       74         170       206         244       245                 374  
                   
Large losses total
            198       208       206       267       236       202       190         414       473         612       628                 895  
                   
*   Dollar amounts shown are rounded to millions; certain amounts may not add due to rounding. Ratios are calculated based on whole dollar amounts.The sum of quarterly amounts may not equal the full year as each is computed independently.
 
*   nm — Not meaningful
 
*   Statutory data prepared in accordance with statutory accounting rules as defined by the National Association of Insurance Commissioners and filed with the appropriate regulatory bodies.
 
    2009 Third-Quarter Supplement   11


 

Consolidated Cincinnati Insurance Companies — Personal Lines
Statutory Quarterly Analysis
(Based on reported data — see Page 20 for adjusted data)
                                                                                                                       
    Three months ended     Six months ended     Nine months ended     Twelve months ended
(Dollars in millions)   12/31/09   9/30/09   6/30/09   3/31/09   12/31/08   9/30/08   6/30/08   3/31/08     6/30/09   6/30/08     9/30/09   9/30/08     12/31/09   12/31/08
Net premiums written
          $ 190     $ 190     $ 145     $ 160     $ 184     $ 191     $ 150       $ 334     $ 341       $ 524     $ 525                 $ 685  
Net premiums earned
          $ 170     $ 172     $ 171     $ 171     $ 167     $ 174     $ 177       $ 343     $ 351       $ 513     $ 518               $ 689  
 
                                                                                                                     
Losses paid
          $ 121     $ 137     $ 130     $ 123     $ 141     $ 116     $ 116       $ 267     $ 232       $ 389     $ 373               $ 496  
Loss reserve change
            (14 )     18       4       (31 )     (8 )     16       3         22       19         7       11                 (20 )
Total losses incurred
          $ 107     $ 155     $ 134     $ 92     $ 133     $ 132     $ 119       $ 289     $ 251       $ 396     $ 384               $ 476  
Allocated loss expense paid
            4       4       3       4       4       4       3         7       7         11       11                 15  
Allocated loss expense reserve change
                              1       (1 )     (1 )                                 (1 )               (1 )
Total allocated loss expense incurred
          $ 4     $ 4     $ 3     $ 5     $ 3     $ 3     $ 3       $ 7     $ 7       $ 11     $ 10               $ 14  
Unallocated loss expense paid
            14       14       15       19       13       13       13         28       25         41       38                 57  
Unallocated loss expense reserve change
                  1             (3 )     1       1       1               2         1       3                 1  
Total unallocated loss expense incurred
          $ 14     $ 15     $ 15     $ 16     $ 14     $ 14     $ 14       $ 28     $ 27       $ 42     $ 41               $ 58  
Underwriting expenses incurred
            56       56       51       58       56       55       51         108       106         163       162                 224  
                   
Underwriting loss
          $ (11 )   $ (58 )   $ (32 )   $     $ (39 )   $ (30 )   $ (10     $ (89   $ (40     $ (100 )   $ (79 )             $ (83 )
                   
Ratio Data
                                                                                                                     
Loss ratio
            63.1 %     90.1 %     78.3 %     53.6 %     79.7 %     75.6 %     67.4 %       84.2 %     71.5 %       77.1 %     74.1 %               69.0 %
Allocated loss expense ratio
            2.4       2.4       1.9       2.7       1.8       1.9       1.9         2.2       1.9         2.2       1.9                 2.1  
Unallocated loss expense ratio
            7.8       8.2       8.3       9.6       8.7       7.9       7.4         8.3       7.6         8.1       8.0                 8.3  
Net underwriting expense ratio
            29.5       29.8       35.4       36.2       30.4       28.9       34.1         32.1       31.2         31.2       30.9                 32.2  
                   
Statutory combined ratio
            102.8 %     130.5 %     123.9 %     102.1 %     120.6 %     114.3 %     110.8 %       126.8 %     112.2 %       118.7 %     114.9 %               111.6 %
Statutory combined ratio excluding catastrophes
            94.9 %     95.1 %     101.3 %     106.2 %     96.8 %     87.3 %     99.2 %       97.8 %     92.9 %       96.7 %     94.2 %               97.1 %
                   
Loss Detail
                                                                                                                     
New losses greater than $4,000,000
          $ 5     $     $     $     $ 5     $     $       $     $       $ 5     $ 5               $ 5  
New losses $2,000,000-$4,000,000
            5                                                           5                        
New losses $1,000,000-$2,000,000
            5       3       1       4       6       2       4         5       5         10       12                 16  
New losses $750,000-$1,000,000
            2             2       3       2       2       1         2       3         4       4                 7  
New losses $500,000-$750,000
            3       1       4       5       2       1       3         5       4         8       6                 11  
New losses $250,000-$500,000
            7       7       9       7       8       5       6         15       12         22       20                 26  
Case reserve development above $250,000
            2       7       5       6       2       3       4         12       7         14       9                 16  
                   
Large losses subtotal
          $ 29     $ 18     $ 21     $ 25     $ 25     $ 13     $ 18       $ 39     $ 31       $ 68     $ 56               $ 81  
IBNR incurred
                        (1 )     (4 )     2       2               (1 )     2         (1 )     4                  
Catastrophe losses incurred
            13       61       39       (7 )     40       47       21         100       67         113       107                 100  
Remaining incurred
            65       76       75       78       66       70       80         151       151         216       217                 295  
                   
Total losses incurred
          $ 107     $ 155     $ 134     $ 92     $ 133     $ 132     $ 119       $ 289     $ 251       $ 396     $ 384               $ 476  
                   
Loss Ratio
                                                                                                                     
New losses greater than $4,000,000
            2.9 %     0.0 %     0.0 %     0.0 %     3.0 %     0.0 %     0.0 %       0.0 %     0.0 %       1.0 %     1.0 %               0.7 %
New losses $2,000,000-$4,000,000
            3.0       0.0       0.0       0.0       0.0       0.0       0.0         0.0       0.0         1.0       0.0                 0.0  
New losses $1,000,000-$2,000,000
            2.7       1.9       0.8       2.4       3.8       1.1       2.1         1.4       1.6         1.8       2.3                 2.3  
New losses $750,000-$1,000,000
            1.1       0.0       1.4       1.5       1.0       1.1       0.4         0.7       0.8         0.8       0.8                 1.0  
New losses $500,000-$750,000
            1.7       0.8       2.2       2.9       1.3       0.7       1.5         1.5       1.1         1.5       1.2                 1.6  
New losses $250,000-$500,000
            4.2       4.0       5.0       3.9       4.8       3.0       3.6         4.5       3.3         4.4       3.8                 3.8  
Case reserve development above $250,000
            1.3       3.7       3.0       3.8       1.4       1.5       2.5         3.3       1.9         2.7       1.7                 2.3  
                   
Large losses subtotal
            16.9 %     10.4 %     12.4 %     14.5 %     15.3 %     7.5 %     10.0 %       11.4 %     8.7 %       13.2 %     10.8 %               11.7 %
IBNR incurred
            (0.2 )     0.1       (0.6 )     (2.3 )     1.0       0.9       0.2         (0.3 )     0.6         (0.3 )     0.7                 0.0  
Total catastrophe losses incurred
            7.9       35.4       22.6       (4.1 )     23.8       27.0       11.6         29.0       19.3         22.0       20.7                 14.5  
Remaining incurred
            38.5       44.2       43.9       45.5       39.6       40.2       45.6         44.1       42.9         42.2       41.9                 42.8  
                   
Total loss ratio
            63.1 %     90.1 %     78.3 %     53.6 %     79.7 %     75.6 %     67.4 %       84.2 %     71.5 %       77.1 %     74.1 %               69.0 %
                   
Loss Claim Count
                                                                                                                     
New losses greater than $4,000,000
            1                         1                                   1       1                  
New losses $2,000,000-$4,000,000
            2                                                           2                       3  
New losses $1,000,000-$2,000,000
            4       3       1       3       6       1       3         4       4         8       10                 7  
New losses $750,000-$1,000,000
            2             3       3       2       2       1         3       6         5       5                 14  
New losses $500,000-$750,000
            5       2       7       9       4       2       5         9       16         14       11                 51  
New losses $250,000-$500,000
            22       20       27       20       26       17       19         47       47         69       62                 28  
Case reserve development above $250,000
            7       15       12       17       7       8       7         27       29         34       22                 79  
                   
Large losses total
            43       40       50       52       46       30       35         90       102         133       111                 182  
                   
*   Dollar amounts shown are rounded to millions; certain amounts may not add due to rounding. Ratios are calculated based on whole dollar amounts.The sum of quarterly amounts may not equal the full year as each is computed independently.
 
*   nm — Not meaningful
 
*   Statutory data prepared in accordance with statutory accounting rules as defined by the National Association of Insurance Commissioners and filed with the appropriate regulatory bodies.
         
    2009 Third-Quarter Supplement   12

 


 

Consolidated Cincinnati Insurance Companies
Agency Direct Written Premiums by Risk State by Line of Business for the Nine Months Ended September 30, 2009
                                                                                                                                   
(Dollars in millions)   Standard Market   Surplus Lines                     Standard Market   *Consolidated
    Commercial Lines   Personal Lines   Commercial   Consolidated     Commercial   Personal   Total
    Comm   Comm   Comm   Workers’   Specialty   Surety &   Mach. &   Pers   Home   Other   Casualty   2009   2008     Change   Change   Change
Risk State   Casualty   Prop   Auto   Comp   Packages   Exec Risk   Equip   Auto   Owner   Personal   & Prop   Total   Total     %   %   %
AL
  $ 13.9     $ 13.2     $ 5.8     $ 0.9     $ 6.1     $ 1.8     $ 0.5     $ 12.6     $ 19.3     $ 4.2     $ 0.8     $ 79.2     $ 78.5         (0.9 )     0.9       0.9  
AZ  
    8.0       4.9       7.3       0.7       0.8       0.7       0.4       0.5       0.5       0.2       0.2       24.2       24.9         (7.5 )     361.4       (2.9 )
AR  
    7.0       8.0       4.7       3.0       3.4       1.4       0.4       2.0       2.3       0.7       0.6       33.5       34.1         (5.0 )     5.9       (1.8 )
CO  
    0.2       0.3       0.2       0.3             0.2                   0.1                   1.5       1.5         (3.2 )     (1.2 )     (2.5 )
DE  
    1.7       1.2       0.9       2.1       0.2       0.1       0.1                               6.4       4.5         43.2       228.8       43.2  
FL  
    17.7       17.3       7.0       0.9       1.6       1.8       0.7       8.1       12.8       2.4             70.3       83.7         (19.3 )     (8.6 )     (16.0 )
GA  
    19.6       16.3       13.7       9.7       5.9       5.2       0.8       23.4       21.2       6.3       2.2       124.3       122.6         (0.6 )     1.6       1.4  
ID  
    7.4       3.6       3.9       0.2       0.7       0.9       0.2       0.2       0.1             0.2       17.5       17.3         (2.4 )   nm     0.8  
IL  
    47.4       33.5       21.8       37.4       10.1       5.4       2.3       18.7       14.4       5.1       2.9       199.0       210.8         (7.9 )     1.9       (5.5 )
IN  
    32.8       27.7       17.6       19.9       6.4       5.2       1.9       20.6       19.1       5.3       3.9       160.4       164.8         (4.7 )     (1.2 )     (2.6 )
IA  
    15.1       11.2       7.1       17.8       3.4       2.5       1.1       2.6       2.6       1.3       0.3       64.9       66.8         (2.7 )     (8.2 )     (2.8 )
KS  
    6.3       6.8       3.7       6.8       2.4       1.6       0.4       3.2       4.0       0.9       0.3       36.3       35.1         4.2       (2.2 )     3.4  
KY  
    15.8       16.6       10.3       2.7       4.4       2.7       0.8       15.7       12.1       3.4       1.1       85.5       82.7         1.7       2.9       3.5  
MD  
    10.7       5.2       8.2       7.9       0.9       1.1       0.3       0.2       1.3       0.4       0.6       36.8       36.5         (1.8 )     18.4       0.8  
MI  
    23.5       16.2       10.2       10.7       8.6       4.9       1.4       8.6       10.4       2.4       1.4       98.3       101.2         (4.9 )     (0.9 )     (2.9 )
MN  
    15.2       11.9       6.5       5.5       2.6       1.7       0.9       4.8       4.2       2.8       1.1       57.2       58.9         (6.6 )     5.2       (2.8 )
MO  
    16.3       15.1       9.7       10.8       4.4       2.5       0.8       2.3       3.3       0.8       1.2       67.2       68.7         (5.5 )     14.0       (2.2 )
MT  
    10.2       5.7       5.4       0.1       0.8       0.3       0.4       0.8       0.7       0.2       0.3       24.8       24.1         (1.7 )     117.9       3.3  
NE  
    4.8       4.1       2.5       5.2       1.0       0.8       0.3       0.6       0.7       0.3       0.2       20.6       21.9         (7.2 )     (1.5 )     (5.9 )
NH  
    2.3       1.5       1.0       1.8       0.6       0.4       0.1       0.5       0.5       0.3       0.2       9.1       8.6         4.2       0.7       6.0  
NM  
    2.2       0.7       1.1       0.3       0.1       0.4                               0.1       5.1       2.8         76.2       176.2       79.1  
NY  
    24.6       7.1       9.4       1.8       1.0       2.0       0.5                         0.3       46.8       41.4         12.4       7.3       13.2  
NC  
    24.0       19.7       15.1       19.1       9.6       6.0       1.3       3.9       3.5       2.5       1.4       106.0       115.5         (14.6 )     130.2       (8.3 )
ND  
    3.7       2.6       2.0             0.7       0.5       0.2       0.3       0.4       0.1       0.1       10.6       11.1         (5.9 )     10.1       (4.1 )
OH  
    105.3       68.1       45.0             14.9       18.0       3.8       92.1       64.6       23.6       3.8       438.9       461.4         (4.8 )     (5.9 )     (4.9 )
PA  
    34.1       22.3       21.8       37.2       7.1       4.5       1.4       5.5       4.3       2.7       1.0       142.0       146.5         (3.8 )     (3.2 )     (3.1 )
SC  
    9.2       5.9       4.7       4.2       1.8       1.8       0.3       0.3       0.2       0.2       0.4       28.9       32.9         (14.7 )     231.4       (12.0 )
SD  
    2.8       1.8       1.3       2.9       0.3       0.3       0.1                         0.1       9.6       12.2         (22.0 )     (6.5 )     (21.2 )
TN  
    17.2       14.6       10.6       7.9       7.0       3.8       0.9       6.5       6.8       2.6       0.8       78.7       80.0         (3.7 )     2.1       (1.6 )
TX  
    3.4       4.1       2.0       1.6       0.3       0.4       0.3                         0.5       12.6       4.3         180.6       50.0       193.3  
UT  
    9.1       4.3       5.1       0.1       0.5       1.8       0.3       0.9       0.3       0.1       0.8       23.2       21.4         (1.0 )   nm     8.5  
VT  
    3.5       3.0       2.3       4.1       0.7       0.7       0.2       0.5       0.7       0.2       0.2       16.2       17.3         (7.7 )     (4.6 )     (6.2 )
VA  
    22.3       17.7       13.8       12.8       3.8       5.0       1.0       6.9       5.7       2.3       1.0       92.3       101.0         (10.6 )     (2.2 )     (8.6 )
WA  
    1.2       0.5       0.8                   0.1       0.1                         0.2       3.0       1.0         181.8     nm     206.5  
WV  
    5.7       3.7       3.8       0.7       1.8       1.0       0.2             0.5       0.1       0.6       18.1       16.7         5.0       (9.1 )     8.2  
WI  
    20.2       12.9       8.9       20.1       3.1       1.8       1.4       6.5       5.3       2.5       1.1       83.9       86.7         (3.7 )     (4.9 )     (3.2 )
WY  
    0.5       0.1       0.1                   0.1                                     0.8       0.6         31.2       32.2       31.3  
All Other  
    2.2       2.0       1.9       3.1       0.2       1.1       0.1             0.1                   10.8       9.7         10.2       29.4       10.3  
       
Total
  $ 567.0     $ 411.4     $ 297.2     $ 260.4     $ 117.2     $ 90.6     $ 25.9     $ 248.9     $ 222.2     $ 73.9     $ 30.0     $ 2,344.7     $ 2,409.6         (4.6 )     (0.4 )     (2.7 )
Other Direct  
          1.2             2.5                               2.2                   5.9       9.8         (50.4 )     (6.3 )     (39.9 )
       
Total Direct
  $ 567.0     $ 412.6     $ 297.2     $ 262.9     $ 117.2     $ 90.6     $ 25.9     $ 248.9     $ 224.4     $ 73.9     $ 30.0     $ 2,350.6     $ 2,419.4         (4.7 )     (0.4 )     (2.8 )
       
    Surplus direct premiums written were $30.0 million and $8.4 million for the nine months ended September 30, 2009 and 2008, respectively.
 
*   Consolidated change consists of commercial lines, personal lines and E&S.
 
    Dollar amounts shown are rounded to millions; certain amounts may not add due to rounding.Percentage changes are calculated based on whole dollar amounts.
         
    2009 Third-Quarter Supplement   13

 


 

Quarterly Property Casualty Data — Commercial Lines
                                                                                                                       
    Three months ended     Six months ended     Nine months ended     Twelve months ended
(Dollars in millions)   12/31/09   9/30/09   6/30/09   3/31/09   12/31/08   9/30/08   6/30/08   3/31/08     6/30/09   6/30/08     9/30/09   9/30/08     12/31/09   12/31/08
Commercial casualty:
                                                                                                                     
Written premiums
          $ 168     $ 171     $ 209     $ 183     $ 171     $ 199     $ 211       $ 379     $ 410       $ 548     $ 582               $ 764  
Earned premiums
            180       180       187       183       196       194       190         366       384         546       580                 763  
Loss and loss expenses ratio
            45.0 %     54.2 %     55.2 %     23.9 %     44.4 %     39.8 %     58.3 %       54.7 %     48.9 %       51.5 %     47.4 %               41.7 %
Less catastrophe loss ratio
                                                                                             
                   
Loss and loss expenses excluding catastrophe loss ratio
            45.0 %     54.2 %     55.2 %     23.9 %     44.4 %     39.8 %     58.3 %       54.7 %     48.9 %       51.5 %     47.4 %               41.7 %
                   
 
                                                                                                                     
Commercial property:
                                                                                                                     
Written premiums
          $ 124     $ 113     $ 132     $ 117     $ 117     $ 124     $ 124       $ 245     $ 247       $ 370     $ 364               $ 481  
Earned premiums
            122       120       121       122       120       123       122         241       244         362       364                 487  
Loss and loss expenses ratio
            42.8 %     88.3 %     69.0 %     47.2 %     70.0 %     97.6 %     75.5 %       78.6 %     86.6 %       66.6 %     81.1 %               72.6 %
Less catastrophe loss ratio
            0.6       23.5       7.4       (5.3 )     15.6       38.0       16.5         15.4       27.3         10.4       23.4                 16.2  
                   
Loss and loss expenses excluding catastrophe loss ratio
            42.2 %     64.8 %     61.6 %     52.5 %     54.4 %     59.6 %     59.0 %       63.2 %     59.3 %       56.2 %     57.7 %               56.4 %
                   
 
                                                                                                                     
Commercial auto:
                                                                                                                     
Written premiums
          $ 92     $ 94     $ 110     $ 94     $ 93     $ 108     $ 107       $ 204     $ 215       $ 296     $ 308               $ 402  
Earned premiums
            99       98       99       103       103       104       101         197       205         296       308                 411  
Loss and loss expenses ratio
            67.9 %     62.5 %     59.7 %     94.8 %     63.2 %     67.5 %     63.4 %       61.1 %     65.5 %       63.4 %     64.7 %               72.3 %
Less catastrophe loss ratio
            (0.8 )     3.3       (0.1 )     (0.8 )     0.1       3.4       (0.4 )       1.6       1.5         0.8       1.0                 0.6  
                   
Loss and loss expenses excluding catastrophe loss ratio
            68.7 %     59.2 %     59.8 %     95.6 %     63.1 %     64.1 %     63.8 %       59.5 %     64.0 %       62.6 %     63.7 %               71.7 %
                   
 
                                                                                                                     
Workers’ compensation:
                                                                                                                     
Written premiums
          $ 69     $ 79     $ 104     $ 89     $ 84     $ 95     $ 114       $ 183     $ 209       $ 252     $ 293               $ 382  
Earned premiums
            82       88       83       93       93       94       94         171       189         253       282                 375  
Loss and loss expenses ratio
            110.2 %     130.2 %     117.5 %     128.2 %     90.9 %     78.3 %     64.8 %       124.0 %     71.5 %       119.5 %     77.9 %               90.4 %
Less catastrophe loss ratio
                                                                                             
                   
Loss and loss expenses excluding catastrophe loss ratio
            110.2 %     130.2 %     117.5 %     128.2 %     90.9 %     78.3 %     64.8 %       124.0 %     71.5 %       119.5 %     77.9 %               90.4 %
                   
 
                                                                                                                     
Specialty package:
                                                                                                                     
Written premiums
          $ 38     $ 35     $ 38     $ 37     $ 36     $ 36     $ 37       $ 73     $ 73       $ 110     $ 109               $ 145  
Earned premiums
            37       37       35       36       35       36       35         72       72         110       107                 144  
Loss and loss expenses ratio
            33.5 %     114.3 %     96.0 %     40.6 %     80.2 %     109.7 %     63.4 %       105.4 %     86.8 %       81.0 %     84.6 %               73.5 %
Less catastrophe loss ratio
            (18.2 )     68.8       13.7       (3.8 )     12.2       43.9       8.1         41.9       26.2         21.5       21.5                 15.2  
                   
Loss and loss expenses excluding catastrophe loss ratio
            51.7 %     45.5 %     82.3 %     44.4 %     68.0 %     65.8 %     55.3 %       63.5 %     60.6 %       59.5 %     63.1 %               58.3 %
                   
 
                                                                                                                     
Surety and executive risk:
                                                                                                                     
Written premiums
          $ 28     $ 25     $ 25     $ 24     $ 29     $ 28     $ 25       $ 50     $ 54       $ 78     $ 82               $ 107  
Earned premiums
            27       25       25       28       27       28       25         50       53         77       80                 107  
Loss and loss expenses ratio
            85.6 %     67.0 %     30.3 %     76.5 %     73.6 %     92.0 %     45.9 %       48.8 %     70.1 %       61.7 %     71.3 %               72.6 %
Less catastrophe loss ratio
                                                                                             
                   
Loss and loss expenses excluding catastrophe loss ratio
            85.6 %     67.0 %     30.3 %     76.5 %     73.6 %     92.0 %     45.9 %       48.8 %     70.1 %       61.7 %     71.3 %               72.6 %
                   
 
                                                                                                                     
Machinery and equipment:
                                                                                                                     
Written premiums
          $ 9     $ 7     $ 8     $ 8     $ 8     $ 7     $ 7       $ 15     $ 14       $ 24     $ 22               $ 30  
Earned premiums
            8       8       7       8       7       7       7         15       14         23       22                 29  
Loss and loss expense ratio
            38.4 %     39.7 %     59.3 %     50.4 %     32.4 %     34.1 %     53.3 %       49.3 %     43.6 %       45.6 %     39.8 %               42.5 %
Less catastrophe loss ratio
            (0.1 )     1.2       4.5       (0.2 )     2.8       1.0               2.8       0.6         1.8       1.3                 0.9  
                   
Loss and loss expense excluding catastrophe loss ratio
            38.5 %     38.5 %     54.8 %     50.6 %     29.6 %     33.1 %     53.3 %       46.5 %     43.0 %       43.8 %     38.5 %               41.6 %
                   
*   Dollar amounts shown are rounded to millions; certain amounts may not add due to rounding. Ratios are calculated based on whole dollar amounts. The sum of quarterly amounts may not equal the full year as each is computed independently.
         
    2009 Third-Quarter Supplement   14

 


 

Quarterly Property Casualty Data — Personal Lines
                                                                                                                       
    Three months ended     Six months ended     Nine months ended     Twelve months ended
(Dollars in millions)   12/31/09   9/30/09   6/30/09   3/31/09   12/31/08   9/30/08   6/30/08   3/31/08     6/30/09   6/30/08     9/30/09   9/30/08     12/31/09   12/31/08
Personal auto:
                                                                                                                     
Written premiums
          $ 90     $ 89     $ 68     $ 73     $ 88     $ 89     $ 69       $ 157     $ 158       $ 246     $ 246               $ 320  
Earned premiums
            80       80       79       80       81       82       83         159       164         239       245                 325  
Loss and loss expenses ratio
            64.9 %     75.7 %     63.6 %     81.0 %     63.7 %     56.8 %     67.6 %       69.7 %     62.2 %       68.1 %     62.7 %               67.2 %
Less catastrophe loss ratio
            0.6       3.1       0.3       (1.6 )     1.7       3.1       1.7         1.7       2.4         1.4       2.2                 1.2  
                   
Loss and loss expenses excluding catastrophe loss ratio
            64.3 %     72.6 %     63.3 %     82.6 %     62.0 %     53.7 %     65.9 %       68.0 %     59.8 %       66.7 %     60.5 %               66.0 %
                   
 
                                                                                                                     
Homeowner:
                                                                                                                     
Written premiums
          $ 75     $ 76     $ 56     $ 65     $ 72     $ 79     $ 60       $ 132     $ 139       $ 208     $ 212               $ 277  
Earned premiums
            68       70       70       69       64       71       72         140       143         207       208                 277  
Loss and loss expenses ratio
            96.4 %     147.8 %     132.9 %     52.9 %     122.8 %     130.7 %     91.4 %       140.3 %     110.9 %       126.0 %     114.6 %               99.2 %
Less catastrophe loss ratio
            18.0       77.6       51.5       (8.5 )     54.5       60.0       25.2         64.5       42.5         49.4       46.2                 32.5  
                   
Loss and loss expenses excluding catastrophe loss ratio
            78.4 %     70.2 %     81.4 %     61.4 %     68.3 %     70.7 %     66.2 %       75.8 %     68.4 %       76.6 %     68.4 %               66.7 %
                   
 
                                                                                                                     
Other personal:
                                                                                                                     
Written premiums
          $ 25     $ 25     $ 21     $ 21     $ 24     $ 23     $ 21       $ 45     $ 44       $ 70     $ 67               $ 88  
Earned premiums
            22       22       22       22       22       21       22         44       44         67       65                 87  
Loss and loss expenses ratio
            33.8 %     42.6 %     37.8 %     51.8 %     91.5 %     43.2 %     62.2 %       40.2 %     52.9 %       38.0 %     65.8 %               62.2 %
Less catastrophe loss ratio
            3.4       18.7       11.0       0.4       14.5       8.0       4.1         14.8       6.0         11.0       8.9                 6.7  
                   
Loss and loss expenses excluding catastrophe loss ratio
            30.4 %     23.9 %     26.8 %     51.4 %     77.0 %     35.2 %     58.1 %       25.4 %     46.9 %       27.0 %     56.9 %               55.5 %
                   
*   Dollar amounts shown are rounded to millions; certain amounts may not add due to rounding. Ratios are calculated based on whole dollar amounts. The sum of quarterly amounts may not equal the full year as each is computed independently.
         
    2009 Third-Quarter Supplement   15

 


 

Consolidated Cincinnati Insurance Companies
Quarterly Detailed Loss Analysis
                                                                                                                       
                            Three months ended                             Six months ended     Nine months ended     Twelve months ended
(Dollars in millions)   12/31/09   9/30/09   6/30/09   3/31/09   12/31/08   9/30/08   6/30/08   3/31/08     6/30/09   6/30/08     9/30/09   9/30/08     12/31/09   12/31/08
All Lines
                                                                                                                     
Loss and loss expenses:
                                                                                                                     
Loss and loss expenses — current AY
          $ 542     $ 529     $ 482     $ 610     $ 566     $ 532     $ 467       $ 1,010     $ 999       $ 1,553     $ 1,563               $ 2,175  
Loss and loss expenses — prior AY’s
            (89 )     (27 )     9       (120 )     (107 )     (87 )     (9 )       (18 )     (96 )       (107 )     (201 )               (320 )
Catastrophes — current AY
            8       120       55       (17 )     59       113       47         175       160         183       220                 203  
Catastrophes — prior AY’s
            (2 )     (2 )     (2 )     1       3             (4 )       (4 )     (4 )       (6 )     (1 )                
                   
Total
          $ 459     $ 620     $ 544     $ 474     $ 521     $ 558     $ 501       $ 1,163     $ 1,059       $ 1,623     $ 1,581               $ 2,058  
                   
Ratio to Earned Premiums
                                                                                                                     
Loss and loss expenses :
                                                                                                                     
Loss and loss expenses — current AY
            73.9 %     72.1 %     65.8 %     81.9 %     75.3 %     69.7 %     62.2 %       69.0 %     66.0 %       70.6 %     69.1 %               72.2 %
Loss and loss expenses — prior AY’s
            (12.1 )     (3.7 )     1.2       (16.2 )     (14.0 )     (11.3 )     (1.2 )       (1.2 )     (6.3 )       (4.9 )     (8.9 )               (10.6 )
Catastrophes — current AY
            1.2       16.3       7.5       (2.2 )     8.0       15.0       6.2         11.9       10.5         8.4       9.7                 6.7  
Catastrophes — prior AY’s
            (0.3 )     (0.2 )     (0.3 )     0.1       0.4       (0.1 )     (0.5 )       (0.3 )     (0.2 )       (0.3 )     0.0                 0.0  
                   
Total
            62.7 %     84.5 %     74.2 %     63.6 %     69.7 %     73.3 %     66.7 %       79.4 %     70.0 %       73.8 %     69.9 %               68.3 %
                   
 
                                                                                                                     
Commercial Lines
                                                                                                                     
Loss and loss expenses:
                                                                                                                     
Loss and loss expenses — current AY
          $ 407     $ 403     $ 363     $ 464     $ 437     $ 416     $ 354       $ 766     $ 770       $ 1,173     $ 1,208               $ 1,672  
Loss and loss expenses — prior AY’s
            (71 )     (18 )     11       (97 )     (89 )     (74 )     (11 )       (7 )     (85 )       (78 )     (174 )               (270 )
Catastrophes — current AY
            (4 )     61       17       (9 )     22       66       25         78       92         74       114                 105  
Catastrophes — prior AY’s
            (3 )     (4 )     (3 )           1             (3 )       (7 )     (3 )       (10 )     (2 )               (2 )
                   
Total
          $ 329     $ 442     $ 388     $ 358     $ 371     $ 408     $ 365       $ 830     $ 774       $ 1,159     $ 1,146               $ 1,505  
                   
Ratio to Earned Premiums
                                                                                                                     
Loss and loss expenses:
                                                                                                                     
Loss and loss expenses — current AY
            73.3 %     72.5 %     65.2 %     80.9 %     75.0 %     70.8 %     61.6 %       68.8 %     66.4 %       70.4 %     69.3 %               72.3 %
Loss and loss expenses — prior AY’s
            (12.8 )     (3.2 )     2.1       (17.0 )     (15.2 )     (12.4 )     (1.9 )       (0.6 )     (7.3 )       (4.6 )     (10.0 )               (11.7 )
Catastrophes — current AY
            (0.6 )     10.9       3.1       (1.5 )     3.8       11.4       4.5         7.0       7.9         4.4       6.5                 4.5  
Catastrophes — prior AY’s
            (0.6 )     (0.7 )     (0.6 )     0.0       0.2       (0.1 )     (0.6 )       (0.6 )     (0.3 )       (0.6 )     (0.1 )               (0.1 )
                   
Total
            59.3 %     79.5 %     69.8 %     62.4 %     63.8 %     69.7 %     63.6 %       74.6 %     66.7 %       69.6 %     65.7 %               65.0 %
                   
 
                                                                                                                     
Personal Lines
                                                                                                                     
Loss and loss expenses:
                                                                                                                     
Loss and loss expenses — current AY
          $ 130     $ 121     $ 115     $ 143     $ 128     $ 114     $ 113       $ 237     $ 228       $ 366     $ 356               $ 499  
Loss and loss expenses — prior AY’s
            (18 )     (9 )     (2 )     (23 )     (17 )     (12 )     2         (12 )     (11 )       (29 )     (28 )               (51 )
Catastrophes — current AY
            12       59       38       (8 )     38       47       22         97       68         109       106                 98  
Catastrophes — prior AY’s
            1       2       1       1       2             (1 )       3       (1 )       4       1                 2  
                   
Total
          $ 125     $ 173     $ 152     $ 113     $ 151     $ 149     $ 136       $ 325     $ 284       $ 450     $ 435               $ 548  
                   
Ratio to Earned Premiums
                                                                                                                     
Loss and loss expenses:
                                                                                                                     
Loss and loss expenses — current AY
            76.1 %     70.9 %     67.4 %     83.8 %     76.3 %     65.6 %     64.1 %       69.0 %     64.8 %       71.3 %     68.6 %               72.4 %
Loss and loss expenses — prior AY’s
            (10.7 )     (5.4 )     (1.4 )     (13.7 )     (10.0 )     (7.2 )     1.0         (3.4 )     (3.1 )       (5.8 )     (5.3 )               (7.3 )
Catastrophes — current AY
            7.3       34.3       22.0       (4.7 )     22.9       27.0       11.9         28.1       19.4         21.2       20.6                 14.2  
Catastrophes — prior AY’s
            0.6       1.1       0.6       0.5       0.9       0.0       (0.3 )       0.9       (0.1 )       0.8       0.1                 0.3  
                   
Total
            73.3 %     100.9 %     88.6 %     65.9 %     90.1 %     85.4 %     76.7 %       94.6 %     81.0 %       87.5 %     84.0 %               79.6 %
                   
         
    2009 Third-Quarter Supplement   16

 


 

Cincinnati Insurance Group (Excludes CSU)
Loss and Loss Expense Analysis
                                                                                         
            Paid                             Loss                             Loss        
    Paid     loss     Total     Case     IBNR     expense     Total     Case     IBNR     expense     Total  
(In millions)   losses     expense     paid     reserves     reserves     reserves     reserves     incurred     incurred     incurred     incurred  
Gross loss and loss expense incurred at September 30, 2009
Commercial casualty
  $ 188     $ 92     $ 280     $ 24     $ (30 )   $ 9     $ 2     $ 212     $ (30 )   $ 101     $ 282  
Commercial property
    255       34       289       (17 )     13             (4 )     238       13       34       285  
Commercial auto
    167       28       195       (11 )     3             (8 )     156       3       28       187  
Workers’ compensation
    184       30       214       (6 )     89       12       95       178       89       42       309  
Specialty packages
    71       13       84       (3 )     8       1       6       68       8       13       90  
Surety and executive risk
    34       7       41       (2 )     2       (1 )           32       2       6       41  
Machinery and equipment
    8       1       9                               8             1       9  
 
                                                                 
Total commercial lines
    908       204       1,112       (14 )     86       22       91       892       85       226       1,203  
 
                                                                                       
Personal auto
    152       21       173       (11 )     1             (10 )     141       1       21       163  
Homeowners
    217       26       244       8       20       2       30       225       20       29       274  
Other personal
    37       4       41       (12 )     (2 )     (1 )     (15 )     24       (2 )     3       26  
 
                                                                 
Total personal lines
    406       52       458       (16 )     19       2       5       390       19       53       463  
 
                                                                 
Total property casualty group
  $ 1,314     $ 257     $ 1,570     $ (30 )   $ 105     $ 23     $ 96     $ 1,283     $ 104     $ 279     $ 1,666  
 
                                                                 
 
                                                                                       
Ceded loss and loss expense incurred at September 30, 2009
Commercial casualty
  $ 31     $ 9     $ 40     $ (31 )   $ (7 )   $ (1 )   $ (39  )   $     $ (7 )   $ 7     $ 1  
Commercial property
    41             41       2       1             3       42       1             43  
Commercial auto
    1             1       (2 )                 (2 )                        
Workers’ compensation
    11       1       11       (7 )     2             (4 )     4       2       1       7  
Specialty packages
    2             2       (1 )                 (1 )     1                   1  
Surety and executive risk
    9       2       11       (17 )                 (17 )     (8 )           2       (7 )
Machinery and equipment
                                                                 
 
                                                                 
Total commercial lines
    95       12       106       (56 )     (3 )     (1 )     (60 )     39       (4 )     10       46  
 
                                                                                       
Personal auto
    1             1                               1                    
Homeowners
    15             15       (5 )     3             (3 )     10       3             12  
Other personal
    1             1       (1 )                 (1 )                        
 
                                                                 
Total personal lines
    17             17       (6 )     3             (3 )     10       3             12  
 
                                                                 
Total property casualty group
  $ 111     $ 12     $ 122     $ (62 )   $     $ (1 )   $ (63 )   $ 49     $ (1 )   $ 10     $ 58  
 
                                                                 
 
                                                                                       
Net loss and loss expense incurred at September 30, 2009
Commercial casualty
  $ 157     $ 83     $ 240     $ 55     $ (24 )   $ 10     $ 41     $ 212     $ (24 )   $ 93     $ 282  
Commercial property
    215       33       249       (19 )     12             (7 )     196       12       33       241  
Commercial auto
    166       28       194       (9 )     2             (6 )     157       2       28       187  
Workers’ compensation
    174       29       203             87       12       99       174       87       42       302  
Specialty packages
    69       12       82       (2 )     8       1       7       67       8       13       89  
Surety and executive risk
    25       5       30       16       2       (1 )     17       41       2       4       48  
Machinery and equipment
    8       1       9       1                         9             1       11  
 
                                                                 
Total commercial lines
    813       192       1,007       42       89       23       152       855       88       214       1,158  
 
                                                                                       
Personal auto
    151       21       173       (11 )     1             (10 )     140       1       21       163  
Homeowners
    202       26       229       14       17       2       33       216       17       29       261  
Other personal
    35       4       40       (12 )     (2 )     (1 )     (15 )     24       (2 )     3       26  
 
                                                                 
Total personal lines
    389       52       441       (9 )     16       2       8       380       16       53       450  
 
                                                                 
Total property casualty group
  $ 1,202     $ 244     $ 1,448     $ 33     $ 105     $ 24     $ 160     $ 1,235     $ 105     $ 268     $ 1,608  
 
                                                                 
 
*   Dollar amounts shown are rounded to millions; certain amounts may not add due to rounding.
         
    2009 Third-Quarter Supplement   17

 


 


Consolidated Cincinnati Insurance Companies
Quarterly Property Casualty Data — All Lines
                                                                                                                       
                            Three months ended                             Six months ended     Nine months ended     Twelve months ended
(Dollars in millions)   12/31/09   9/30/09   6/30/09   3/31/09   12/31/08   9/30/08   6/30/08   3/31/08     6/30/09   6/30/08     9/30/09   9/30/08     12/31/09   12/31/08
Premiums
                                                                                                                     
Agency renewal written premiums
          $ 669     $ 666     $ 695     $ 669     $ 687     $ 738     $ 733       $ 1,361     $ 1,472       $ 2,030     $ 2,159               $ 2,828  
Agency new business written premiums
            107       107       97       100       93       100       76         204       175         311       268                 368  
Ceded written premiums
            (42 )     (40 )     (39 )     (41 )     (50 )     (37 )     (38 )       (79 )     (75 )       (122 )     (125 )               (165 )
Other written premiums
            2       2       2       2       4       1       2         5       3         7       7                 9  
Written premium adjustment — statutory
            (6 )     (12 )     23       (13 )     (7 )     (12 )     3         11       (9 )       5       (17 )               (30 )
                         
Reported written premiums — statutory*
          $ 730     $ 723     $ 778     $ 717     $ 727     $ 790     $ 776       $ 1,501     $ 1,566       $ 2,231     $ 2,292               $ 3,010  
Unearned premium change
            3       10       (46 )     30       24       (29 )     (25 )       (36 )     (54 )       (33 )     (30 )                
                         
Earned premiums
          $ 733     $ 733     $ 732     $ 747     $ 751     $ 761     $ 751       $ 1,465     $ 1,512       $ 2,198     $ 2,262               $ 3,010  
                   
Year over year change %
                                                                                                                     
Agency renewal written premiums
            (2.7 )%     (9.8 )%     (5.2 )%     (5.1 )%     (6.1 )%     (3.0 )%     (3.7 )%       (7.6 )%     (3.4 )%       (6.0 )%     (4.3 )%               (4.5 )%
Agency new business written premiums
            15.4       7.3       28.9       22.9       12.4       22.8       (6.3 )       16.6       8.3         16.0       9.8                 13.1  
Ceded written premiums
            (14.6 )     7.1       4.6       (0.7 )     20.8       (4.6 )     (1.1 )       5.8       (2.9 )       (2.4 )     5.4                 3.8  
Other written premiums
            (31.5 )     81.6       32.5       (50.6 )     (39.1 )     (74.6 )     (71.8 )       53.5       (73.1 )       7.9       (61.6 )               (59.3 )
Written premium adjustment — statutory
            (20.3 )     (0.3 )     661.2       (48.0 )     (81.6 )     (900.0 )     (91.5 )       (220.8 )     (124.3 )       (126.5 )     161.5                 (4.8 )
Reported written premiums — statutory*
            0.5       (8.5 )     0.3       (1.0 )     (1.3 )     (2.5 )     (8.3 )       (4.2 )     (5.4 )       (2.7 )     (4.2 )               (3.4 )
                         
Statutory combined ratio
                                                                                                                     
Statutory combined ratio
            96.9 %     116.6 %     105.1 %     100.2 %     102.8 %     101.5 %     97.2 %       110.8 %     99.4 %       106.2 %     100.5 %               100.4 %
Contribution from catastrophe losses
            0.9       16.1       7.2       (2.1 )     8.4       14.9       5.7         11.6       10.3         8.1       9.7                 6.8  
                         
Statutory combined ratio excluding catastrophe losses
            96.0 %     100.5 %     97.9 %     102.3 %     94.4 %     86.6 %     91.5 %       99.2 %     89.1 %       98.1 %     90.8 %               93.6 %
                   
Commission expense ratio
            20.1 %     18.2 %     17.7 %     20.8 %     17.7 %     17.4 %     17.7 %       17.9 %     17.5 %       18.7 %     17.6 %               18.4 %
Other expense ratio
            14.1       13.8       13.2       15.9       15.4       10.7       12.9         13.5       11.8         13.7       12.8                 13.7  
                         
Statutory expense ratio
            34.2 %     32.0 %     30.9 %     36.7 %     33.1 %     28.1 %     30.6 %       31.4 %     29.3 %       32.4 %     30.4 %               32.1 %
                   
GAAP combined ratio
                                                                                                                     
GAAP combined ratio
            95.1 %     116.6 %     107.5 %     98.9 %     101.3 %     103.5 %     98.6 %       112.1 %     101.1 %       106.4 %     101.0 %               100.6 %
Contribution from catastrophe losses
            0.9       16.1       7.2       (2.1 )     8.4       14.9       5.7         11.6       10.3         8.1       9.7                 6.8  
                         
GAAP combined ratio excluding catastrophe losses
            94.2 %     100.5 %     100.3 %     101.0 %     92.9 %     88.6 %     92.9 %       100.5 %     90.8 %       98.3 %     91.3 %               93.8 %
                         
*   Dollar amounts shown are rounded to millions; certain amounts may not add due to rounding. Ratios are calculated based on whole dollar amounts. The sum of quarterly amounts may not equal the full year as each is computed independently.
 
*   nm — Not meaningful
 
*   Statutory data prepared in accordance with statutory accounting rules as defined by the National Association of Insurance Commissioners and filed with the appropriate regulatory bodies.
         
    2009 Third-Quarter Supplement   18

 


 


Consolidated Cincinnati Insurance Companies
Quarterly Property Casualty Data — Commercial Lines
                                                                                                                       
                            Three months ended                             Six months ended     Nine months ended     Twelve months ended
(Dollars in millions)   12/31/09   9/30/09   6/30/09   3/31/09   12/31/08   9/30/08   6/30/08   3/31/08     6/30/09   6/30/08     9/30/09   9/30/08     12/31/09   12/31/08
Premiums
                                                                                                                     
Agency renewal written premiums
          $ 489     $ 488     $ 557     $ 514     $ 502     $ 552     $ 588       $ 1,045     $ 1,140       $ 1,535     $ 1,642               $ 2,156  
Agency new business written premiums
            76       79       76       83       77       87       66         155       153         231       229                 312  
Ceded written premiums
            (32 )     (32 )     (31 )     (23 )     (46 )     (31 )     (32 )       (64 )     (63 )       (96 )     (109 )               (131 )
Other written premiums
            2       1       1       (9 )     13       1               3       1         4       14                 4  
Written premium adjustment — statutory
            (6 )     (12 )     23       (13 )     (8 )     (12 )     3         11       (9 )       4       (17 )               (30 )
                         
Reported written premiums — statutory*
          $ 528     $ 524     $ 626     $ 552     $ 538     $ 597     $ 625       $ 1,149     $ 1,222       $ 1,678     $ 1,759               $ 2,311  
Unearned premium change
            27       32       (69 )     21       44       (11 )     (51 )       (37 )     (61 )       (11 )     (16 )               5  
                         
Earned premiums
          $ 555     $ 556     $ 557     $ 573     $ 582     $ 586     $ 574       $ 1,112     $ 1,161       $ 1,667     $ 1,743               $ 2,316  
                   
Year over year change %
                                                                                                                     
Agency renewal written premiums
            (2.5 )%     (11.6 )%     (5.2 )%     (5.9 )%     (7.7 )%     (2.9 )%     (4.0 )%       (8.3 )%     (3.5 )%       (6.5 )%     (4.8 )%               (5.1 )%
Agency new business written premiums
            (0.4 )     (8.9 )     14.9       16.2       6.0       21.2       (8.3 )       1.4       6.4         0.8       6.3                 8.8  
Ceded written premiums
            (29.2 )     3.2       0.2       (33.0 )     43.6       (1.6 )     2.8         1.7       0.6         (11.4 )     15.1                 2.4  
Other written premiums
            (88.4 )     49.2     nm     (391.7 )     250.5       (73.4 )     (99.4 )       227.4       (89.2 )       (70.3 )     25.0                 (66.5 )
Written premium adjustment — statutory
            (18.8 )     4.2       666.7       (45.8 )     (81.6 )     (900.0 )     (91.5 )       (216.7 )     (124.3 )       (123.5 )     161.7                 (1.6 )
Reported written premiums — statutory*
            (1.8 )     (12.2 )     0.1       (1.9 )     (1.2 )     (2.7 )     (9.8 )       (5.9 )     (6.5 )       (4.7 )     (4.9 )               (4.2 )
                         
Statutory combined ratio
                                                                                                                     
Statutory combined ratio
            94.9 %     112.0 %     99.0 %     99.0 %     97.3 %     97.5 %     93.3 %       105.4 %     95.5 %       101.8 %     95.9 %               96.6 %
Contribution from catastrophe losses
            (1.2 )     10.2       2.5       (1.5 )     4.0       11.3       3.9         6.4       7.7         3.8       6.4                 4.5  
                         
Statutory combined ratio excluding catastrophe losses
            96.1 %     101.8 %     96.5 %     100.5 %     93.3 %     86.2 %     89.4 %       99.0 %     87.8 %       98.0 %     89.5 %               92.1 %
                   
Commission expense ratio
            20.3 %     18.1 %     16.4 %     20.8 %     18.1 %     16.9 %     16.5 %       17.2 %     16.7 %       18.2 %     17.1 %               18.0 %
Other expense ratio
            15.3       14.4       12.8       15.7       15.4       10.9       13.2         13.5       12.1         14.0       13.1                 13.7  
                         
Statutory expense ratio
            35.6 %     32.5 %     29.2 %     36.5 %     33.5 %     27.8 %     29.7 %       30.7 %     28.8 %       32.2 %     30.2 %               31.7 %
                   
GAAP combined ratio
                                                                                                                     
GAAP combined ratio
            92.4 %     110.9 %     102.2 %     98.1 %     94.9 %     99.9 %     95.0 %       106.6 %     97.4 %       101.9 %     96.6 %               97.0 %
Contribution from catastrophe losses
            (1.2 )     10.2       2.5       (1.5 )     4.0       11.3       3.9         6.4       7.7         3.8       6.4                 4.5  
                         
GAAP combined ratio excluding catastrophe losses
            93.6 %     100.7 %     99.7 %     99.6 %     90.9 %     88.6 %     91.1 %       100.2 %     89.7 %       98.1 %     90.2 %               92.5 %
                         
*   Dollar amounts shown are rounded to millions; certain amounts may not add due to rounding. Ratios are calculated based on whole dollar amounts. The sum of quarterly amounts may not equal the full year as each is computed independently.
 
*   nm — Not meaningful
 
*   Statutory data prepared in accordance with statutory accounting rules as defined by the National Association of Insurance Commissioners and filed with the appropriate regulatory bodies.
         
    2009 Third-Quarter Supplement   19

 


 

Consolidated Cincinnati Insurance Companies
Quarterly Property Casualty Data — Personal Lines
                                                                                                                       
    Three months ended     Six months ended     Nine months ended     Twelve months ended
(Dollars in millions)   12/31/09   9/30/09   6/30/09   3/31/09   12/31/08   9/30/08   6/30/08   3/31/08     6/30/09   6/30/08     9/30/09   9/30/08     12/31/09   12/31/08
Premiums
                                                                                                                     
Agency renewal written premiums
          $ 177     $ 176     $ 137     $ 156     $ 185     $ 186     $ 146       $ 313     $ 332       $ 490     $ 517               $ 672  
Agency new business written premiums
            21       19       14       11       11       10       8         34       19         55       30                 42  
Ceded written premiums
            (9 )     (7 )     (7 )     (8 )     (13 )     (6 )     (6 )       (15 )     (12 )       (24 )     (26 )               (33 )
Other written premiums
            1       1       1             1       1       2         2       2         3       4                 4  
Written premium adjustment — statutory
                                                                                             
                   
Reported written premiums — statutory*
          $ 190     $ 191     $ 145     $ 158     $ 184     $ 191     $ 150       $ 334     $ 341       $ 524     $ 525               $ 685  
Unearned premium change
            (20 )     (19 )     26       13       (17 )     (17 )     27         9       10         (11 )     (7 )               4  
                   
Earned premiums
          $ 170     $ 172     $ 171     $ 171     $ 167     $ 174     $ 177       $ 343     $ 351       $ 513     $ 518               $ 689  
                   
Year over year change %
                                                                                                                     
Agency renewal written premiums
            (4.7 )%     (5.3 )%     (6.0 )%     (2.3 )%     (1.6 )%     (3.3 )%     (2.8 )%       (5.6 )%     (3.1 )%       (5.3 )%     (2.5 )%               (2.5 )%
Agency new business written premiums
            90.9       85.0       67.2       17.7       11.9       7.7       (0.5 )       76.9       3.9         82.0       6.7                 9.5  
Ceded written premiums
            (35.9 )     20.2       23.1       7.0       61.4       (17.3 )     (17.2 )       21.6       (17.3 )       (8.5 )     11.0                 10.1  
Other written premiums
            (30.4 )     128.2       (50.0 )     (64.9 )     (37.3 )     (76.2 )     (0.4 )       (7.6 )     (43.3 )       (16.0 )     (41.3 )               (45.4 )
Written premium adjustment — statutory
            0.0       0.0       0.0       (100.0 )     (100.0 )     0.0       (100.0 )       0.0       (100.0 )       0.0       (100.0 )               (100.0 )
Reported written premiums — statutory*
            3.2       (0.4 )     (3.5 )     (1.4 )     (4.0 )     (3.0 )     (2.0 )       (1.8 )     (2.6 )       (0.1 )     (3.1 )               (2.7 )
                   
 
                                                                                                                     
                   
Statutory combined ratio
                                                                                                                     
Statutory combined ratio
            102.8 %     130.5 %     123.9 %     102.1 %     120.6 %     114.3 %     110.8 %       126.8 %     112.2 %       118.7 %     114.9 %               111.6 %
Contribution from catastrophe losses
            7.9       35.4       22.6       (4.1 )     23.8       27.0       11.6         29.0       19.3         22.0       20.7                 14.5  
                   
Statutory combined ratio excluding catastrophe losses
            94.9 %     95.1 %     101.3 %     106.2 %     96.8 %     87.3 %     99.2 %       97.8 %     92.9 %       96.7 %     94.2 %               97.1 %
                   
Commission expense ratio
            19.1 %     18.0 %     22.5 %     21.2 %     16.4 %     18.6 %     22.3 %       20.0 %     20.2 %       19.6 %     18.9 %               19.5 %
Other expense ratio
            10.4       11.7       12.9       15.0       14.0       10.3       11.8         12.2       11.0         11.6       12.0                 12.7  
                   
Statutory expense ratio
            29.5 %     29.7 %     35.4 %     36.2 %     30.4 %     28.9 %     34.1 %       32.2 %     31.2 %       31.2 %     30.9 %               32.2 %
                   
GAAP combined ratio
                                                                                                                     
GAAP combined ratio
            102.3 %     133.2 %     120.7 %     100.0 %     122.5 %     115.3 %     110.1 %       126.9 %     112.7 %       118.7 %     115.9 %               111.9 %
Contribution from catastrophe losses
            7.9       35.4       22.6       (4.1 )     23.8       27.0       11.6         29.0       19.3         22.0       20.7                 14.5  
                   
GAAP combined ratio excluding catastrophe losses
            94.4 %     97.8 %     98.1 %     104.1 %     98.7 %     88.3 %     98.5 %       97.9 %     93.4 %       96.7 %     95.2 %               97.4 %
                   
     
*   Dollar amounts shown are rounded to millions; certain amounts may not add due to rounding. Ratios are calculated based on whole dollar amounts. The sum of quarterly amounts may not equal the full year as each is computed independently.
 
*   nm — Not meaningful
 
*   Statutory data prepared in accordance with statutory accounting rules as defined by the National Association of Insurance Commissioners and filed with the appropriate regulatory bodies.
         
    2009 Third-Quarter Supplement   20

 


 

The Cincinnati Life Insurance Company
Statutory Statements of Income
                                                                     
      For the Three Months Ended September 30,     For the Nine Months Ended September 30,
(Dollars in millions)     2009   2008   Change   % Change     2009   2008   Change   % Change
 
                                                                   
Net premiums written
    $ 109     $ 42     $ 67       157.2       $ 228     $ 129     $ 99       76.9  
Net investment income
      32       30       2       7.3         93       88       5       5.2  
Amortization of interest maintenance reserve
      (2 )     (1 )     (1 )     (110.1 )       (5 )     (1 )     (4 )     (275.9 )
Commissions and expense allowances on reinsurance ceded
      2       2           nm         5       6       (1 )     (11.4 )
Income from fees associated with Separate Accounts
                      nm         1       1           nm  
Total revenues
    $ 141     $ 73     $ 68       92.8       $ 322     $ 223     $ 99       44.3  
 
                                                                   
Death benefits and matured endowments
    $ 14     $ 13     $ 1       4.9       $ 42     $ 34     $ 8       24.5  
Annuity benefits
      6       8       (2 )     (29.7 )       22       22           nm  
Disability benefits and benefits under accident and health contracts
            1       (1 )     (29.5 )       2       2           nm  
Surrender benefits and group conversions
      4       5       (1 )     (26.8 )       15       17       (2 )     (13.3 )
Interest and adjustments on deposit-type contract funds
      3       3           nm         8       9       (1 )     (6.0 )
Increase in aggregate reserves for life and accident and health contracts
      97       25       72       295.3         183       77       106       138.6  
Payments on supplementary contracts with life contingencies
                      nm                            
Total benefit expenses
    $ 124     $ 55     $ 69       125.4       $ 272     $ 161     $ 111       68.5  
 
                                                                   
Commissions
    $ 12     $ 8     $ 4       49.9       $ 30     $ 24     $ 6       24.2  
General insurance expenses and taxes
      9       10       (1 )     (7.3 )       27       29       (2 )     (6.7 )
Increase in loading on deferred and uncollected premiums
      (2 )     (1 )     (1 )     (126.9 )       (4 )     (3 )     (1 )     (38.0 )
Net transfers to or (from) Separate Accounts
      (2 )           (2 )   nm         (4 )           (4 )   nm  
Other deductions
                                                   
Total operating expenses
    $ 17     $ 17     $         2.0       $ 49     $ 50     $ (1 )     (2.1 )
 
                                                                   
Federal and foreign income taxes incurred
      (1 )     9       (8 )   nm         (5 )     20       (25 )   nm  
 
                                                                   
Net gain from operations before realized capital gains or (losses)
    $ 1     $ (7 )   $ 8     nm       $ 6     $ (8 )   $ 14     nm  
 
                                                                   
Net realized gains or (losses) net of capital gains tax
            (25 )     25       99.5         (7 )     (40 )     33       81.3  
 
                                                                   
Net income (loss) (statutory)
    $ 1     $ (33 )   $ 32     nm       $ (1 )   $ (48 )   $ 47       97.4  
 
*   Dollar amounts shown are rounded to millions; certain amounts may not add due to rounding. Ratios are calculated based on whole dollar amounts.
 
*   Statutory data prepared in accordance with statutory accounting rules as defined by the National Association of InsuranceCommissioners and filed with the appropriate regulatory bodies.
         
    2009 Third-Quarter Supplement   21

 

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-----END PRIVACY-ENHANCED MESSAGE-----