EX-99 3 ex992.htm EXHIBIT 99.2 Cincinnati Financial Corporation


Cincinnati Financial Corporation

Supplemental Financial Data

March 31, 2007

First Quarter

   
   
 

6200 South Gilmore Road

 
 

Fairfield, Ohio 45014-5141

 
 

www.cinfin.com/investors

 
   
   

Investor Contact:

Media Contact:

Shareholder Contact:

Heather J. Wietzel

Joan O. Shevchik

Jerry L. Litton

513-870-2768

513-603-5323

513-870-2639

   
   

Cincinnati Financial Corporation

  
 

A.M. Best

Fitch

Moody’s

Standard & Poor’s

     

Corporate Debt

aa-

A+

A2

A

     

The Cincinnati Insurance Companies

    
     
 

A.M. Best

Fitch

Moody’s

Standard & Poor’s

     

Property Casualty Group

A++

--

Aa3

AA-

The Cincinnati Insurance Company

A++

AA

Aa3

AA-

The Cincinnati Indemnity Company

A++

AA

Aa3

AA-

The Cincinnati Casualty Company

A++

AA

Aa3

AA-

     

The Cincinnati Life Insurance Company

A+

AA

--

AA-

     
     
 

Ratings are as of May 2, 2007, under continuing review and subject to change and/or affirmation.  For the latest ratings, select the Ratings tab on www.cinfin.com/investors.

 
  
 

The consolidated financial statements and financial exhibits that follow are unaudited. These consolidated financial statements and exhibits should be read in conjunction with the consolidated financial statements and notes included in the Annual Report on Form 10-K for 2006. The results of operations for interim periods should not be considered indicative of results to be expected for the full year. Certain 2006 interim period data has been updated to correct rounding differences.

 







 

Supplemental Financial Data

 
 

First Quarter 2007

 
    
  

Page

Status

 

Definitions of Non-GAAP Information and Reconciliation to Comparable GAAP Measures

3

5/2/2007

    

Consolidated

  
 

Quick Reference

4

5/2/2007

 

Consolidated Statements of Income

5

5/2/2007

 

CFC and Subsidiary Consolidation – Three Months Ended March 31, 2007

6

5/2/2007

 

CFC and Subsidiary Consolidation – Three Months Ended March 31, 2006

7

5/2/2007

 

Consolidated Balance Sheets

8

5/2/2007

 

10-Year Net Income Reconciliation

9

5/2/2007

 

Quarterly Net Income Reconciliation

10

5/2/2007

 

Top Holdings -- Common Stocks

11

5/2/2007

    

Property Casualty Insurance Operations

  
 

GAAP Statements of Income

12

5/2/2007

 

Statutory Statements of Income

13

5/2/2007

 

Statutory Quarterly Analysis – Consolidated

14

5/2/2007

 

Statutory Quarterly Analysis – Commercial Lines

15

5/2/2007

 

Statutory Quarterly Analysis – Personal Lines

16

5/2/2007

 

Direct Written Premiums by Line of Business and State

17

5/2/2007

 

Quarterly Property Casualty Data – Commercial Lines of Business

18

5/2/2007

 

Quarterly Property Casualty Data – Personal Lines of Business

19

5/2/2007

    

Reconciliation Data

  
 

10-Year Property Casualty Data – Consolidated

20

5/2/2007

 

6-Year Property Casualty Data – Commercial Lines

21

5/2/2007

 

6-Year Property Casualty Data – Personal Lines

22

5/2/2007

 

Quarterly Property Casualty Data – Consolidated

23

5/2/2007

 

Quarterly Property Casualty Data – Commercial Lines

24

5/2/2007

 

Quarterly Property Casualty Data – Personal Lines

25

5/2/2007

    

Life Insurance Operations

  
 

GAAP Statements of Income

26

5/2/2007

 

Statutory Statements of Income

27

5/2/2007

 

Expenses as a Percentage of Premium

28

5/2/2007




Definitions of Non-GAAP Information and
Reconciliation to Comparable GAAP Measures

Cincinnati Financial Corporation prepares its public consolidated financial statements in conformity with accounting principles generally accepted in the United States of America (GAAP). Statutory data is prepared in accordance with statutory accounting rules as defined by the National Association of Insurance Commissioners’ (NAIC) Accounting Practices and Procedures Manual and therefore is not reconciled to GAAP data.

Management uses certain non-GAAP and non-statutory financial measures to evaluate its primary business areas – property casualty insurance, life insurance and investments – when analyzing both GAAP and certain non-GAAP measures may improve understanding of trends in the underlying business, helping avoid incorrect or misleading assumptions and conclusions about the success or failure of company strategies. Management adjustments to GAAP measures generally: apply to non-recurring events that are unrelated to business performance and distort short-term results; involve values that fluctuate based on events outside of management’s control; or relate to accounting refinements that affect comparability between periods, creating a need to analyze data on the same basis.

·

Operating income: Operating income is calculated by excluding net realized investment gains and losses (defined as realized investment gains and losses after applicable federal and state income taxes) from net income. Management evaluates operating income to measure the success of pricing, rate and underwriting strategies. While realized investment gains or losses are integral to the company’s insurance operations over the long term, the determination to realize investment gains or losses in any period may be subject to management’s discretion and is independent of the insurance underwriting process. Also, under applicable GAAP accounting requirements, gains and losses can be recognized from certain changes in market values of securities and embedded derivatives without actual realization. Management believes that the level of realized investment gains or losses for any particular period, while it may be material, may not fully indicate the performance of ongoing underlying business operations in that period.

For these reasons, many investors and shareholders consider operating income to be one of the more meaningful measures for evaluating insurance company performance. Equity analysts who report on the insurance industry and the company generally focus on this metric in their analyses. The company presents operating income so that all investors have what management believes to be a useful supplement to GAAP information.

·

Statutory accounting rules: For public reporting, insurance companies prepare consolidated financial statements in accordance with GAAP. However, insurers also must calculate certain data according to statutory accounting rules as defined in the NAIC’s Accounting Practices and Procedures Manual, which may be, and has been, modified by various state insurance departments. Statutory data is publicly available, and various organizations use it to calculate aggregate industry data, study industry trends and compare insurance companies.

·

Written premium: Under statutory accounting rules, property casualty written premium is the amount recorded for policies issued and recognized on an annualized basis at the effective date of the policy. Management analyzes trends in written premium to assess business efforts. Earned premium, used in both statutory and GAAP accounting, is calculated ratably over the policy term. The difference between written and earned premium is unearned premium.

·

Written premium adjustment – statutory basis only: In 2002, the company refined its estimation process for matching property casualty written premiums to policy effective dates, which added $117 million to 2002 written premiums. To better assess ongoing business trends, management may exclude this adjustment when analyzing trends in written premiums and statutory ratios that make use of written premiums.

·

Codification: Adoption of Codification of Statutory Accounting Principles was required for Ohio-based insurance companies effective January 1, 2001. The adoption of Codification changed the manner in which the company recognized statutory property casualty written premiums. As a result, 2001 statutory written premiums included $402 million to account for unbooked premiums related to policies with effective dates prior to January 1, 2001. To better assess ongoing business trends, management excludes this $402 million when analyzing written premiums and statutory ratios that make use of written premiums.

·

Life insurance gross written premiums: In analyzing the life insurance company’s gross written premiums, management excludes five larger, single-pay life insurance policies (bank-owned life insurance or BOLIs) written in 2004, 2002, 2000 and 1999 to focus on the trend in premiums written through the independent agency distribution channel.

·

One-time charges or adjustments: Management analyzes earnings and profitability excluding the impact of one-time items.

In 2003, as the result of a settlement negotiated with a vendor, pretax results included the recovery of $23 million of a $39 million one-time, pretax charge incurred in 2000.

In 2000, the company recorded a one-time charge of $39 million, pre-tax, to write down previously capitalized costs related to the development of software to process property casualty policies.

In 2000, the company earned $5 million in interest in the first quarter from a $303 million single-premium BOLI policy that was booked at the end of 1999 and segregated as a separate account effective April 1, 2000. Investment income and realized investment gains and losses from separate accounts generally accrue directly to the contract holder and, therefore, are not included in the company’s consolidated financials.



2007 First-Quarter Supplement

 3





Cincinnati Financial Corporation

Quick Reference - First Quarter 2007

(all data shown is for the three months ended or as of March 31, 2007)

(Based on reported data - see Pages 25-27 for adjusted data)

      

(Dollars in millions except share data)

        

Revenues:

 

   

Benefits and expenses:

   

Commercial lines net written premiums

$

693 

  

Commercial lines loss and loss expenses

$

354 

 

   Year-over-year percentage change

 

3.8 

%

 

   Year-over-year percentage change

 

0.0 

%

Personal lines net written premiums

$

153 

  

Personal lines loss and loss expenses

$

104 

 

   Year-over-year percentage change

 

(5.1)

%

 

   Year-over-year percentage change

 

(12.0)

%

Property casualty net written premiums

$

846 

  

Property casualty loss and loss expenses

$

458 

 

   Year-over-year percentage change

 

2.1 

%

 

   Year-over-year percentage change

 

(3.0)

%

Commercial lines net earned premiums

$

604 

  

Life and accident and health losses and policy benefits

$

27 

 

   Year-over-year percentage change

 

3.7 

%

 

   Year-over-year percentage change

 

(9.8)

%

Personal lines net earned premiums

$

181 

  

Operating expenses

$

262 

 

   Year-over-year percentage change

 

(7.6)

%

 

   Year-over-year percentage change

 

1.4 

%

Property casualty net earned premiums

$

785 

  

Interest expenses

$

13 

 

   Year-over-year percentage change

 

0.8 

%

 

   Year-over-year percentage change

 

2.0 

%

Life and accident and health net earned premiums

$

30 

  

Total expenses

$

760 

 

   Year-over-year percentage change

 

15.7 

%

 

   Year-over-year percentage change

 

(1.7)

%

Investment income

$

148 

  

Income before income taxes

$

271 

 

   Year-over-year percentage change

 

7.1 

%

 

   Year-over-year percentage change

 

(67.5)

%

Realized gains on investments

$

62 

  

Total income tax

$

77 

 

   Year-over-year percentage change

 

(90.6)

%

 

   Year-over-year percentage change

 

(72.7)

%

Other income

$

  

Effective tax rate

 

28.4 

%

   Year-over-year percentage change

 

32.4 

%

     

Total revenues

$

1,031 

  

Ratios:

   

   Year-over-year percentage change

 

(35.9)

%

 

 

   
     

Commercial lines GAAP combined ratio

 

88.9 

%

Income:

    

Personal lines GAAP combined ratio

 

92.0 

%

 

    

Property casualty GAAP combined ratio

 

89.6 

%

Operating income

$

153 

  

 

   

   Year-over-year percentage change

 

16.4 

%

 

Commercial lines STAT combined ratio

 

86.5 

%

Net realized investment gains and losses

$

41 

  

Personal lines STAT combined ratio

 

93.5 

%

   Year-over-year percentage change

 

(90.2)

%

 

Property casualty STAT combined ratio

 

87.7 

%

Net income

$

194 

  

 

   

   Year-over-year percentage change

 

(64.8)

%

 

Return on equity based upon net income

 

11.5 

%

     

Return on equity based upon operating income

 

9.1 

%

Per share (diluted):

    

 

   
     

Balance Sheet:

   

Operating income

$

         0.88 

      

   Year-over-year percentage change

 

18.9 

%

 

Fixed maturity investments

$

5,864 

 

Net realized investment gains and losses

$

         0.23 

  

Equity securities

 

7,687 

 

   Year-over-year percentage change

 

(90.4)

%

 

Short-term investments

 

19 

 

Net income

$

          1.11 

  

Other invested assets

 

71 

 

   Year-over-year percentage change

 

(64.5)

%

 

  Total invested assets

$

13,641 

 

Book value

$

39.08 

      

   Year-over-year percentage change

 

9.0 

%

 

Property casualty and life loss and loss expense reserves

$

3,928 

 

Weighted average shares -- diluted

 

174,274,157 

  

Total debt

 

840 

 

   Year-over-year percentage change

 

(1.1)

%

 

Shareholders equity

 

6,708 

 



2007 First-Quarter Supplement

 4




Cincinnati Financial Corporation

Consolidated Statements of Income

  

For the Three Months Ended March 31,

  

2007

 

2006

 

Change

% Change

Revenues:

 

 

    

 

  Premiums earned:

 

 

    

 

    Property casualty

$

           827,290,658 

$

         816,042,728 

$

          11,247,930 

1.38 

    Life

 

             38,946,474 

 

34,874,544 

 

4,071,930 

11.68 

    Accident health

 

               1,758,851 

 

1,733,897 

 

24,954 

1.44 

    Premiums ceded  

 

            (53,348,919)

 

(48,610,706)

 

(4,738,213)

9.75 

      Total premiums earned  

 

           814,647,064 

 

804,040,463 

 

10,606,601 

1.32 

  Investment income

 

           148,394,366 

 

138,533,053 

 

9,861,313 

7.12 

  Realized gain on investments

 

           62,178,232 

 

660,230,900 

 

(598,052,668)

(90.58)

  Other income

 

                5,688,868 

 

4,297,510 

 

1,391,358 

32.38 

Total revenues

$

       1,030,908,530 

$

       1,607,101,926 

$

       (576,193,396)

(35.85)

Benefits & expenses:

 

 

    

 

  Losses & policy benefits

$

           515,031,815 

$

         523,561,864 

$

          (8,530,049)

(1.63)

  Reinsurance recoveries

 

            (30,808,929)

 

(22,275,639)

 

(8,533,290)

38.31 

  Commissions

 

           170,152,772 

 

165,724,962 

 

4,427,810 

2.67 

  Other operating expenses

 

     84,040,679 

 

80,153,365 

 

3,887,314 

4.85 

  Interest expense

 

    13,092,923 

 

12,840,294 

 

252,629 

1.97 

  Taxes, licenses & fees  

 

             19,942,931 

 

24,265,452 

 

(4,322,521)

(17.81)

  Incr deferred acq expense

 

            (15,654,691)

 

(14,459,113)

 

(1,195,578)

8.27 

  Other expenses  

 

               4,163,281 

 

3,332,207 

 

831,074 

24.94 

Total expenses

$

            759,960,781 

$

         773,143,392 

$

         (13,182,611)

(1.71)

Income before income taxes

$

            270,947,749 

$

         833,958,534 

$

       (563,010,785)

(67.51)

Provision for income taxes:

 

 

    

 

Current operating income

$

             55,525,989 

$

           52,521,171 

$

           3,004,818 

5.72 

Realized investments gains and losses

 

             21,059,042 

 

239,649,184 

 

(218,590,142)

(91.21)

Deferred

 

            234,546 

 

(10,198,514)

 

10,433,060 

(102.30)

Total income taxes

$

76,819,577 

$

         281,971,841 

$

       (205,152,264)

(72.76)

Net income

$

194,128,172 

$

         551,986,693 

$

       (357,858,521)

(64.83)

Comprehensive net income

$

12,947,899 

$

         240,437,206 

$

       (227,489,307)

(94.61)

Operating income

$

          153,008,982 

$

         131,404,977 

$

          21,604,005 

16.44 

Net realized investments gains and losses

$

           41,119,190 

$

         420,581,716 

$

       (379,462,526)

(90.22)

Net income per share:

       

  Operating income

$

                     0.88 

$

                     0.75 

$

                   0.13 

17.33 

  Net realized investments gains

      and losses

 

                       0.24 

 

2.42 

 

(2.18)

(90.08)

  Net income per share (basic)

$

1.12 

$

                     3.17 

$

                  (2.05)

(64.67)

  Operating income

$

                     0.88 

$

                     0.74 

$

                  0.14 

18.92 

  Net realized investments gains

      and losses

 

                       0.23 

 

2.39 

 

(2.16)

(90.38)

  Net income per share (diluted)

$

1.11 

$

                     3.13 

$

                  (2.02)

(64.54)

Dividends per share:

 

 

    

 

  Paid

$

                   0.335 

$

                   0.305 

$

                   0.03 

9.84 

  Declared  

 

                     0.355 

 

0.335 

 

                      0.02 

5.97 

Number of shares:

 

 

    

 

  Weighted avg - basic

 

           172,648,988 

 

174,178,090 

 

(1,529,102)

(0.88)

  Weighted avg - diluted

 

          174,274,157 

 

176,127,404 

 

(1,853,247)

(1.05)



2007 First-Quarter Supplement

 5






Cincinnati Financial Corporation and Subsidiaries

Consolidated Statements of Income for the Three Months Ended March 31, 2007

 

 

 

Total

 

CFC

 

CIC GROUP

 

CLIC

 

CFC-I

 

CINFIN

 

ELIM

Revenues:

 

 

            

  Premiums earned:

 

 

            

    Property casualty

$

827,290,658 

$

-

$

827,572,247 

$

$

$

$

(281,589)

    Life

 

38,946,474 

 

-

 

 

38,946,474 

 

 

 

    Accident health

 

1,758,851 

 

-

 

 

1,758,851 

 

 

 

    Premiums ceded

 

(53,348,919)

 

-

 

(43,062,577)

 

(10,286,342)

 

 

 

      Total earned premium

 

814,647,064 

 

-

 

784,509,670 

 

30,418,983 

 

 

 

(281,589)

  Investment income

 

148,394,366 

 

23,901,549

 

96,609,154 

 

28,312,584 

 

610 

 

60,444 

 

(489,975)

  Realized gain on investments  

 

62,178,232 

 

20,568,924

 

29,908,765 

 

8,144,413 

 

 

(7,639)

 

3,563,769 

  Other income

 

5,688,868 

 

2,414,799

 

1,587,659 

 

1,365,571 

 

2,767,261 

 

623,172 

 

(3,069,594)

Total revenues

$

1,030,908,530 

$

46,885,272

$

912,615,248 

$

68,241,551 

$

2,767,871 

$

675,977 

$

(277,389)

 

              

Benefits & expenses:

              

  Losses & policy benefits

$

515,031,815 

$

-

$

478,692,221 

$

36,890,212 

$

$

$

(550,618)

  Reinsurance recoveries

 

(30,808,929)

 

-

 

(21,156,004)

 

(9,652,925)

 

 

 

  Commissions

 

170,152,772 

 

-

 

161,213,497 

 

8,939,275 

 

 

 

  Other operating expenses

 

84,040,679 

 

5,184,101

 

73,340,516 

 

7,485,553 

 

959,996 

 

250,608 

 

(3,180,095)

  Interest expense

 

13,092,923 

 

12,359,761

 

 

 

744,031 

 

 

(10,869)

  Taxes, licenses & fees

 

19,942,931 

 

306,756

 

18,655,793 

 

946,862 

 

18,075 

 

15,445 

 

  Incr deferred acq expenses

 

(15,654,691)

 

-

 

(11,718,254)

 

(3,936,437)

 

 

 

  Other expenses

 

4,163,281 

 

-

 

4,163,217 

 

64 

 

 

 

Total expenses

$

759,960,781 

$

17,850,618

$

703,190,986 

$

40,672,604 

$

1,722,102 

$

266,053 

$

(3,741,582)

 

              

Income before income taxes

$

270,947,749 

$

29,034,654

$

209,424,262 

$

27,568,947 

$

1,045,769 

$

409,924 

$

3,464,193 

 

              

Provision for income taxes:

              

  Current operating income

$

55,525,989 

$

1,638,528

$

50,616,959 

$

2,700,754 

$

417,915 

$

151,833 

$

  Capital gains/losses

 

21,059,042 

 

7,554,673

 

10,633,068 

 

2,870,544 

 

 

757 

 

  Deferred

 

234,546 

 

710,111

 

(5,755,376)

 

4,059,429 

 

11,579 

 

(3,665)

 

1,212,468 

Total income tax

$

76,819,577 

$

9,903,312

$

55,494,651 

$

9,630,727 

$

429,494 

$

148,925 

$

1,212,468 

          

 

    

Net income - current year

$

194,128,172 

$

19,131,342

$

153,929,611 

$

17,938,220 

$

616,275 

$

260,999 

$

2,251,725 

          

 

    

Net income - prior year

$

551,986,693 

$

269,706,489

$

245,881,648 

$

35,063,666 

$

319,315 

$

325,708 

$

689,867 

    

 

 

 

   

 

 

 

  

Change in net income

 

-64.8%

 

-92.9%

 

-37.4%

 

-48.8%

 

93.0%

 

-19.9%

  



2007 First-Quarter Supplement

 6






Cincinnati Financial Corporation and Subsidiaries

Consolidated Statements of Income for the Three Months Ended March 31, 2006

 

 

Total

CFC

CIC GROUP

CLIC

CFC-I

CINFIN

ELIM

Revenues:

              

  Premiums earned:

              

    Property casualty

$

816,042,728 

$

$

816,236,753 

$

$

$

$

(194,025)

    Life

 

34,874,544 

 

 

 

34,874,544 

 

 

 

    Accident health

 

1,733,897 

 

 

 

1,733,897 

 

 

 

    Premiums ceded

 

852,651,169 

 

 

816,236,753 

 

36,608,441 

 

 

 

(194,025)

      Total earned premium

 

804,040,463 

 

 

777,946,657 

 

26,287,831 

 

 

 

(194,025)

  Investment income

 

138,533,053 

 

23,676,422 

 

89,315,960 

 

26,275,186 

 

 

44,602 

 

(779,117)

  Realized gain on investments  

 

660,230,900 

 

410,816,802 

 

206,169,965 

 

42,334,256 

 

 

339 

 

909,538 

  Other income

 

4,297,510 

 

2,488,780 

 

665,946 

 

746,054 

 

2,797,693 

 

576,426 

 

(2,977,389)

Total revenues

$

1,607,101,926 

$

436,982,004 

$

1,074,098,528 

$

95,643,327 

$

2,797,693 

$

621,367 

$

(3,040,993)

 

              

Benefits & expenses:

              

  Losses & policy benefits

$

524,355,214 

$

$

494,777,921 

$

30,127,971 

$

$

$

(550,678)

  Reinsurance recoveries

 

(23,068,989)

 

 

(23,140,637)

 

71,648 

 

 

 

  Commissions

 

165,724,962 

 

 

157,318,046 

 

8,406,916 

 

 

 

  Other operating expenses

 

80,153,365 

 

5,317,550 

 

69,594,847 

 

6,142,293 

 

1,991,705 

 

122,837 

 

(3,015,867)

  Interest expense

 

12,840,294 

 

12,840,294 

 

 

 

535,782 

 

 

(535,782)

  Taxes, licenses & fees

 

24,265,452 

 

247,926 

 

23,462,757 

 

830,409 

 

(287,529)

 

11,889 

 

  Incr deferred acq expenses

 

(14,459,113)

 

 

(9,516,708)

 

(4,942,405)

 

 

 

  Other expenses

 

3,332,207 

 

 

3,332,143 

 

64 

 

 

 

Total expenses

$

773,143,392 

$

18,405,770 

$

715,828,369 

$

40,636,896 

$

2,239,958 

$

134,726 

$

(4,102,327)

 

              

Income before income taxes

$

833,958,534 

$

418,576,234 

$

358,270,159 

$

 55,006,431 

$

557,735 

$

486,641 

$

1,061,334 

 

              

Provision for income taxes:

              

  Current operating income

$

52,521,171 

$

1,110,956 

$

48,910,938 

$

2,133,775 

$

204,800 

$

160,702 

$

  Capital gains/losses

 

239,649,184 

 

152,547,228 

 

72,285,085 

 

14,816,990 

 

 

(119)

 

  Deferred

 

(10,198,514)

 

(4,788,439)

 

(8,807,512)

 

2,992,000 

 

33,620 

 

350 

 

371,467 

Total income tax

$

281,971,841 

$

148,869,745 

$

112,388,511 

$

19,942,765 

$

238,420 

$

160,933 

$

371,467 

               

Net income - current year

$

551,986,693 

$

269,706,489 

$

245,881,648 

$

35,063,666 

$

319,315 

$

325,708 

$

689,867 

               

Net income - prior year

$

144,356,404 

$

8,460,899 

$

123,801,916 

$

10,414,582 

$

847,765 

$

282,744 

$

548,498 

  

 

 

 

     

 

    

Change in net income

 

282.4%

 

3087.7%

 

98.6%

 

236.7%

 

-62.3%

 

15.2%

  



2007 First-Quarter Supplement

 7






Cincinnati Financial Corporation

Consolidated Balance Sheets

 

(Dollars in millions except per share data)

 

 

March 31,

December 31,

 

 

 

2007

2006

   

(unaudited)

 

Assets

    

   Investments

    

      Fixed maturities, at fair value (amortized cost: 2007—$5,785; 2006—$5,739)

  

 $              5,864 

 $              5,805 

      Equity securities, at fair value (cost: 2007—$2,802; 2006—$2,621)

  

                 7,687 

                 7,799 

      Short-term investments, at fair value (amortized cost: 2007—$19; 2006—$95)

  

                     19 

                      95 

      Other invested assets

  

                     71 

                      60 

      Total investments

  

               13,641 

               13,759 

     

   Cash and cash equivalents

  

                    197 

                    202 

   Securities lending collateral

  

                    984 

                        - 

   Investment income receivable

  

                    117 

                    121 

   Finance receivable

  

                    103 

                    108 

   Premiums receivable

  

                 1,173 

                 1,128 

   Reinsurance receivable

  

                    727 

                    683 

   Prepaid reinsurance premiums

  

                     12 

                      13 

   Deferred policy acquisition costs

  

                    467 

                    453 

   Property and equipment, net, for company use (accumulated depreciation:  2007—$268; 2006—$261)

  

                    204 

                    193 

   Other assets

  

                     85 

                      58 

   Separate accounts

  

                    511 

                    504 

      Total assets

  

 $            18,221 

 $             17,222 

     

Liabilities

    

   Insurance reserves

    

      Losses and loss expense

  

 $              3,928 

 $              3,896 

      Life policy reserves

  

                 1,427 

                 1,409 

   Unearned premiums

  

                 1,640 

                 1,579 

   Securities lending payable

  

                    984 

                        - 

   Other liabilities

  

                    652 

                    533 

   Deferred income tax

  

                 1,531 

                 1,653 

   Notes payable

  

                     49 

                      49 

   6.125% senior debenture due 2034

  

                    371 

                    371 

   6.90% senior debenture due 2028

  

                     28 

                      28 

   6.92% senior debenture due 2028

  

                    392 

                    392 

   Separate accounts

  

                    511 

                    504 

      Total liabilities

  

               11,513 

               10,414 

     

Shareholders' equity

    

   Common stock, par value-$2 per share; authorized: 2007-500 million shares, 2006-
      500 million shares; issued: 2007-196 million shares, 2006-196 million shares

  

                    392 

                    391 

   Paid-in capital

  

                 1,027 

                 1,015 

   Retained earnings

  

                 2,923 

                 2,786 

   Accumulated other comprehensive income

  

                 3,193 

                 3,379 

   Treasury stock at cost (2007—24 million shares, 2006—23 million shares)

  

                   (827)

                   (763)

      Total shareholders' equity

  

                 6,708 

                 6,808 

      Total liabilities and shareholders' equity

  

 $            18,221 

 $             17,222 

 

 

 

 

 



2007 First-Quarter Supplement

 8






Cincinnati Financial Corporation

10-Year Net Income Reconciliation

 

(Dollars in millions except per share data)

Years ended December 31,

 

2006

2005

2004

2003

2002

2001

2000

1999

1998

1997

                               

   Net income

$

930 

 

$

602 

 

$

584 

 

$

374 

 

$

238 

 

$

193 

 

$

118 

 

$

255 

 

$

242 

 

$

299 

 

   One-time item

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

15 

 

 

 

 

 

 

(25)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

   Net income before one-time item

 

930 

  

602 

  

584 

  

389 

  

238 

  

193 

  

93 

  

255 

  

242 

  

299 

 

   Net realized investment gains and losses

 

434 

 

 

40 

 

 

60 

 

 

(27)

 

 

(62)

 

 

(17)

 

 

(2)

 

 

 

 

43 

 

 

45 

 

   Operating income before one-time item

 

496 

  

562 

  

524 

  

416 

  

300 

  

210 

  

95 

  

255 

  

199 

  

254 

 

   Less catastrophe losses

 

(113)

 

 

(82)

 

 

(96)

 

 

(63)

 

 

(57)

 

 

(42)

 

 

(33)

 

 

(24)

 

 

(61)

 

 

(17)

 

   Operating income before catastrophe losses and one-time item

$

609 

 

$

644 

 

$

620 

 

$

479 

 

$

357 

 

$

252 

 

$

128 

 

$

279 

 

$

260 

 

$

271 

 

 

 

  

 

  

 

  

 

  

 

  

 

  

 

  

 

  

 

  

 

  

Diluted per share data

                              

   Net income

$

5.30 

 

$

3.40 

 

$

3.28 

 

$

2.10 

 

$

1.32 

 

$

1.07 

 

$

0.67 

 

$

1.37 

 

$

1.28 

 

$

1.61 

 

   One-time item

 

-   

 

 

-   

 

 

-   

 

 

0.09 

 

 

-   

  

 

 

(0.14)

 

 

-   

 

 

-   

 

 

-   

 

   Net income before one-time item

 

5.30 

  

3.40 

  

3.28 

  

2.01 

  

1.32 

  

1.07 

  

0.81 

  

1.37 

  

1.28 

  

1.61 

 

   Net realized investment gains and losses

 

2.48 

 

 

0.23 

 

 

0.34 

 

 

(0.15)

 

 

(0.35)

  

(0.10)

 

 

(0.01)

 

 

-   

 

 

0.23 

 

 

0.26 

 

   Operating income before one-time item

 

2.82 

  

3.17 

  

2.94 

  

2.16 

  

1.67 

  

1.17 

  

0.82 

  

1.37 

  

1.05 

  

1.35 

 

   Less catastrophe losses

 

(0.65)

 

 

(0.46)

 

 

(0.54)

 

 

(0.35)

 

 

(0.31)

  

(0.23)

 

 

(0.18)

 

 

(0.13)

 

 

(0.32)

 

 

(0.13)

 

   Operating income before catastrophe losses and one-time item

$

3.47 

 

$

3.63 

 

$

3.48 

 

$

2.51 

 

$

1.98 

 

$

1.40 

 

$

1.00 

 

$

1.50 

 

$

1.37 

 

$

1.48 

 
                               

Return on equity

                              

   Return on average equity

 

14.4 

%

9.8 

%

9.4 

%

6.3 

%

4.1 

%

3.2 

%

2.1 

%

4.6 

%

4.7 

%

7.6 

%

   One-time item

 

 

 

  

  

(0.3)

 

 

  

  

0.4 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

   Return on average equity before one-time item

 

14.4 

%

9.8 

%

9.4 

%

6.0 

%

4.1 

%

3.2 

%

2.5 

%

4.6 

%

4.7 

%

7.6 

%

                               

Return on equity based on comprehensive income

                              

   ROE based on comprehensive income

 

16.4 

%

1.6 

%

4.6 

%

13.8 

%

(4.0)

%

2.5 

%

13.1 

%

1.9 

%

19.6 

%

42.6 

%

   One-time item

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

(0.3)

 

 

 

 

 

 

0.4 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

   ROE based on comprehensive income before one-time item

 

16.4 

%

1.6 

%

4.6 

%

13.5 

%

(4.0)

%

2.5 

%

13.5 

%

1.9 

%

19.6 

%

42.6 

%

                               

Investment income

                              

   Investment income, net of expenses

$

570 

 

$

526 

 

$

492 

 

$

465 

 

$

445 

 

$

421 

 

$

415 

 

$

387 

 

$

368 

 

$

349 

 

   BOLI

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

(5)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

   Investment income before BOLI

$

570 

 

$

526 

 

$

492 

 

$

465 

 

$

445 

 

$

421 

 

$

410 

 

$

387 

 

$

368 

 

$

349 

 

 

*Dollar amounts shown are rounded to millions; certain amounts may not add due to rounding.  Ratios are calculated based on whole dollar amounts.



2007 First-Quarter Supplement

 9






Cincinnati Financial Corporation

Quarterly Net Income Reconciliation

 

(In millions except per share data)

Three months ended

Six months ended

Nine months ended

Twelve months ended

 

12/31/07

9/30/07

6/30/07

3/31/07

12/31/06

9/30/06

6/30/06

3/31/06

6/30/07

6/30/06

9/30/07

9/30/06

12/31/07

12/31/06

                              

   Net income

      

$

194 

$

130 

$

115 

$

132 

$

552 

  

$

684 

  

$

800 

  

$

930 

 

   Net realized investment gains and losses

      

 

41 

 

 

 

 

421 

  

 

426 

  

 

427 

  

 

434 

 

   Operating income

       

153 

 

122 

 

115 

 

126 

 

131 

   

258 

   

373 

   

496 

 

   Less catastrophe losses

      

 

(2)

 

(29)

 

(18)

 

(41)

 

(26)

  

 

(67)

  

 

(85)

  

 

(113)

 

   Operating income before catastrophe losses

      

$

155 

$

151 

$

133 

$

167 

$

157 

  

$

325 

  

$

458 

  

$

609 

 

 

                             

Diluted per share data

                             

   Net income

      

$

1.11 

$

0.75 

$

0.66 

$

0.76 

$

3.13 

  

$

3.90 

  

$

4.56 

  

$

5.30 

 

   Net realized investment gains and losses

      

 

0.23 

 

0.05 

 

-    

 

0.04 

 

2.39 

  

 

2.43 

  

 

2.43 

  

 

2.48 

 

   Operating income

       

0.88 

 

0.70 

 

0.66 

 

0.72 

 

0.74 

   

1.47 

   

2.13 

   

2.82 

 

   Less catastrophe losses

      

 

(0.01)

 

(0.16)

 

(0.10)

 

(0.24)

 

(0.14)

  

 

(0.38)

  

 

(0.48)

  

 

(0.65)

 

   Operating income before catastrophe losses

      

$

0.89 

$

0.86 

$

0.76 

$

0.96 

$

0.88 

  

$

1.85 

$

 

$

2.61 

  

$

 3.47 

 
 

Dollar amounts shown are rounded to millions; certain amounts may not add due to rounding.  Ratios are calculated based on whole dollar amounts.  The sum of quarterly amounts may not equal the full year as each is computed

independently.

 



2007 First-Quarter Supplement

 10





Cincinnati Financial Corporation

Top Holdings – Common Stocks

 

(Dollars in millions)

As of and for three months ended March 31, 2007

Actual
cost

Fair
value

Percent of
fair value

Earned dividend
income

Fifth Third Bancorp

$

           283

$

        2,816

          37.8

%

$

           31

Exxon Mobil Corporation

 

           112

 

           621

            8.3

  

             3

The Procter & Gamble Company

 

           203

 

           472

            6.3

  

             2

National City Corporation

 

           171

 

           365

            4.9

  

             4

PNC Financial Services Group, Inc.

 

             62

 

           339

            4.6

  

             3

AllianceBernstein Holding L.P.

 

             69

 

           302

            4.1

  

             5

U.S. Bancorp

 

           184

 

           276

            3.7

  

             3

Johnson & Johnson

 

           218

 

           241

            3.2

  

             1

Wyeth

 

             62

 

           222

            3.0

  

             1

Wells Fargo & Company

 

           103

 

           194

            2.6

  

             2

Piedmont Natural Gas Company, Inc.

 

             64

 

           149

            2.0

  

             1

Sky Financial Group, Inc.

 

             91

 

           125

            1.7

  

             1

Wachovia Corp

 

           102

 

           103

            1.4

  

             1

All other common stock holdings

 

           845

 

        1,223

          16.4

  

             9

   Total

$

2,569

   $  

7,448

100.0

%

$

67

 



2007 First-Quarter Supplement

 11





Cincinnati Insurance Group

GAAP Statements of Income

  
 

For the Three Months Ended March 31,

  

2007

 

2006

 

Change

% Change

Revenues:

       

  Premiums earned:

       

    Property casualty

$

827,572,247 

$

816,236,753 

$

11,335,494 

1.39 

    Life

 

 

 

    Accident health

 

 

 

    Premiums ceded  

 

(43,062,577)

 

(38,290,096)

 

(4,772,481)

12.46 

      Total premiums earned  

 

784,509,670 

 

777,946,657 

 

6,563,013 

0.84 

  Investment income

 

96,609,154 

 

89,315,960 

 

7,293,194 

8.17 

  Realized gain on investments

 

29,908,765 

 

206,169,965 

 

(176,261,200)

(85.49)

  Other income

 

1,587,659 

 

665,946 

 

921,713 

138.41 

       Total revenues

$

912,615,248 

$

1,074,098,528 

$

(161,483,280)

(15.03)

 

       

Benefits & expenses:

       

  Losses & policy benefits

$

478,692,221 

$

494,777,921 

$

(16,085,700)

(3.25)

  Reinsurance recoveries

 

(21,156,004)

 

(23,140,637)

 

1,984,633 

(8.58)

  Commissions

 

161,213,497 

 

157,318,046 

 

3,895,451 

2.48 

  Other operating expenses

 

73,340,516 

 

69,594,847 

 

3,745,669 

5.38 

  Interest expense

 

 

 

  Taxes, licenses & fees  

 

18,655,793 

 

23,462,757 

 

(4,806,964)

(20.49)

  Incr deferred acq expense

 

(11,718,254)

 

(9,516,708)

 

(2,201,546)

23.13 

  Other expenses  

 

4,163,217 

 

3,332,143 

 

831,074 

24.94 

       Total expenses

$

703,190,986 

$

715,828,369 

$

(12,637,383)

(1.77)

       Income before income taxes

$

209,424,262 

$

358,270,159 

$

(148,845,897)

(41.55)

        

Provision for income taxes:

       

Current operating income

$

50,616,959 

$

48,910,938 

$

1,706,021 

3.49 

Current realized investments gains and losses

 

10,633,068 

 

72,285,085 

 

(61,652,017)

(85.29)

  Deferred

 

(5,755,376)

 

(8,807,512)

 

3,052,136 

(34.65)

       Total income taxes

$

55,494,651 

$

112,388,511 

$

(56,893,860)

(50.62)

 

$

 

$

 

$

  

       Net income

 

153,929,611 

 

245,881,648 

 

(91,952,037)

(37.40)



2007 First-Quarter Supplement

 12





Cincinnati Insurance Group

Statutory Statements of Income

 
 

For the Three Months Ended March 31,

 

2007

2006

% Change

Underwriting income

 

 

  

 

Net premiums written

$

845,799,750

$

 828,775,078

2.05 

Unearned premiums increase

 

61,290,080

 

 50,828,418

20.58 

Earned premiums

 

784,509,670

 

777,946,660

0.84 

 

 

 

  

 

Losses incurred

 

370,753,035

 

388,689,030

(4.61)

Allocated loss expenses incurred

 

39,076,308

 

33,233,518

17.58 

Unallocated loss expenses incurred

 

47,706,874

 

49,714,738

(4.04)

Other underwriting expenses incurred

 

244,742,340

 

235,921,105

3.74 

Workers compensation dividend incurred

 

3,649,164

 

3,917,858

(6.86)

  

 

  

 

     Total underwriting deductions

$

705,927,721

$

711,476,249

(0.78)

Net underwriting gain (loss)

 

78,581,950

 

66,470,411

18.22 

  

 

  

 

Investment income

 

 

  

 

Gross investment income earned

 

97,847,031

 

90,155,865

8.53 

Net investment income earned

 

96,629,259

 

89,224,775

8.30 

Net realized capital gains

 

19,559,182

 

134,243,729

(85.43)

Net investment gains (excl. subs)

$

116,188,441

$

223,468,504

(48.01)

Dividend from subsidiary

 

-

 

-

     Net investment gains

$

116,188,441

$

223,468,504

(48.01)

 

 

 

  

 

 

 

 

  

 

     Other income

$

1,516,535

$

509,014

197.94 

 

 

 

  

 

Net income before federal income taxes

$

196,286,926

$

290,447,929

(32.42)

Federal and foreign income taxes incurred

$

49,751,322

$

48,138,557

3.35 

     Net income (statutory)

$

146,535,604

$

242,309,372

(39.53)

* Statutory data prepared in accordance with statutory accounting rules as defined by the National Association of Insurance Commissioners and filed with the appropriate regulatory bodies.



2007 First-Quarter Supplement

 13







Cincinnati Insurance Group - Consolidated

Statutory Quarterly Analysis

(Based on reported data - see Page 25 for adjusted data)

(Dollars in millions)

Three months ended

Six months ended

Nine months ended

Twelve months ended

 

12/31/07

9/30/07

6/30/07

3/31/07

12/31/06

9/30/06

6/30/06

3/31/06

6/30/07

6/30/06

9/30/07

9/30/06

12/31/07

12/31/06

Net premiums written

         

$

846

 

$

  755 

 

$

780

 

$

814 

 

$

829

    

$

1,643

    

$

2,423

    

$

3,178 

 

Net premiums earned

         

$

785

 

$

  802 

 

$

  791

 

$

  793 

 

$

  778

    

$

1,571

    

$

2,362

    

$

3,164 

 
                                           

Losses paid

         

$

365

 

$

  375 

 

$

  366

 

$

  379 

 

$

  345

     

  727

    

$

1,094

    

$

1,469 

 

Loss reserve change

          

6

  

  

    66

  

    60 

  

    42

     

  101

     

  167

     

  172 

 

   Total losses incurred

         

$

371

 

$

  379 

 

$

  432

 

$

  439 

 

$

  387

    

$

  828

    

$

1,261

    

$

1,641 

 

Allocated loss expense paid

          

31

  

    37 

  

    33

  

    31 

  

    27

     

    59

     

    91

     

  127 

 

Allocated loss expense reserve change

          

8

  

    35 

  

8

  

  

6

     

    13

     

    20

     

    56 

 

   Total allocated loss expense incurred

         

$

39

 

$

    72 

 

$

    41

 

$

    38 

 

$

    33

    

$

    72

    

$

  111

    

$

  183 

 

Unallocated loss expense paid

          

46

  

    49 

  

    39

  

    39 

  

    40

     

    78

     

  117

     

  167 

 

Unallocated loss expense reserve change

          

2

  

  

4

  

  

    10

     

    12

     

    15

     

    17 

 

   Total unallocated loss expense incurred

         

$

48

 

$

    51 

 

$

    43

 

$

    42 

 

$

    50

    

$

    90

    

$

  132

    

$

  184 

 

   Underwriting expenses incurred

         

 

248

 

 

  251 

 

 

  243

 

 

  232 

 

 

  240

 

   

 

  471

    

 

  715

   

 

 

  965 

 

   Underwriting profit (loss)

         

$

79

 

$

    49 

 

$

    32

 

$

    42 

 

$

    67

 

   

$

  110

 

   

$

  143

    

$

  191 

 
                                           

Loss Detail

                                          

Losses $1 million or more

         

$

50

 

$

    63 

 

$

    61

 

$

    46 

 

$

    32

    

$

    79

    

$

  139

    

$

  203 

 

Losses $250 thousand to $1 million

          

48

  

    43 

  

    49

  

    48 

  

    38

     

    86

     

  135

     

  178 

 

Development and case reserve increases

   of $250,000 or more

          

53

  

    64 

  

    49

  

    52 

  

    49

     

  102

     

  151

     

  215 

 

   Large losses subtotal

         

$

151

 

$

  170 

 

$

  159

 

$

  146 

 

$

  119

    

$

  267

    

$

  425

    

$

  596 

 

IBNR incurred

          

7

  

   (57)

  

    11

  

     (5)

  

6

     

1

     

    11

     

   (47)

 

Catastrophe losses incurred

          

3

  

    44 

  

    27

  

    64 

  

    39

     

  103

     

  131

     

  175 

 

Remaining incurred

         

 

210

 

 

  222 

 

 

  235

 

 

  234 

 

 

  223

    

 

  457

     

  694

     

  917 

 

   Total losses incurred

         

$

371

 

$

  379 

 

$

  432

 

$

  439 

 

$

  387

    

$

  828

    

$

1,261

    

$

1,641 

 
                                           

Ratio Data

                                          

Loss ratio

          

47.2

%

 

 47.2 

%

 

 54.8

%

 

 55.4 

%

 

 49.9

%

    

 52.7

%

    

 53.4

%

    

 51.9 

%

Allocated loss expense ratio

          

5.0

  

   9.0 

  

   5.0

  

   4.8 

  

   4.3

     

   4.6

     

   4.7

     

   5.8 

 

Unallocated loss expense ratio

          

6.1

  

   6.4 

  

   5.4

  

   5.1 

  

   6.4

     

   5.7

     

   5.6

     

   5.8 

 

Net underwriting expense ratio

         

 

29.4

 

 

 33.3 

 

 

 31.2

 

 

 28.4 

 

 

 29.0

    

 

 28.7

 

    

 29.5

     

 30.4 

 

   Statutory combined ratio

          

87.7

%

 

 95.9 

%

 

 96.4

%

 

 93.7 

%

 

 89.6

%

    

 91.7

%

    

 93.2

%

    

 93.9 

%

   Statutory combined ratio excluding
      catastrophes

         

 

87.3

%

 

 90.4 

%

 

 92.9

%

 

 85.7 

%

 

 84.6

%

   

 

 85.1

%

    

 87.7

%

   

 

 88.4 

%

                                           

Loss Ratio

                                          

Losses $1 million or more

          

6.4

%

 

   7.9 

%

 

   7.6

%

 

   6.0 

%

 

   4.2

%

    

   5.1

%

    

   5.9

%

    

   6.4 

%

Losses $250 thousand to $1 million

          

6.0

  

   5.3 

  

   6.2

  

   6.0 

  

   4.9

     

   5.5

     

   5.7

     

   5.6 

 

Development and case reserve increases

   of $250,000 or more

         

 

6.8

 

 

   8.0 

 

 

   6.3

 

 

   7.4 

 

 

   6.3

 

   

 

   6.9

 

   

 

   6.4

 

  

 

 

   6.8 

 

   Large losses subtotal

          

19.2

%

 

 21.2 

%

 

 20.1

%

 

 19.4 

%

 

 15.4

%

    

 17.5

%

    

 18.0

%

    

 18.8 

%

IBNR incurred

          

1.0

  

  (7.2)

  

   1.3

  

   1.3 

  

   0.8

     

   1.1

     

   0.5

     

  (1.4)

 

Total catastrophe losses incurred

          

0.4

  

   5.5 

  

   3.5

  

   8.0 

  

   5.0

     

   6.5

     

   5.5

     

   5.5 

 

Remaining incurred

         

 

26.6

 

 

 27.7 

 

 

 29.9

 

 

 26.7 

 

 

 28.7

 

   

 

 27.6

 

   

 

 29.4

 

  

 

 

 29.0 

 

   Total loss ratio

         

 

47.2

%

 

 47.2 

%

 

 54.8

%

 

 55.4 

%

 

 49.9

%

   

 

 52.7

%

   

 

 53.4

%

  

 

 

 51.9 

%

                                           

Loss Claim Count

                                          

Losses $1 million or more

          

28

  

    33 

  

    32

  

    26 

  

    14

     

    40

     

    72

     

  105 

 

Losses $250 thousand to $1 million

          

108

  

    97 

  

  103

  

    88 

  

    95

     

  183

     

  286

     

  383 

 

Development and case reserve increases

   of $250,000 or more

         

 

93

 

 

    94 

 

 

  104

 

 

    85 

 

 

    85

 

   

 

  170

 

   

 

  274

 

  

 

 

  368 

 

   Large losses total

         

 

229

 

 

  224 

 

 

  239

 

 

  199 

 

 

  194

 

   

 

  393

 

   

 

  632

 

  

 

 

  856 

 

*Dollar amounts shown are rounded to millions; certain amounts may not add due to rounding. Ratios are calculated based on whole dollar amounts.

*NM – Not meaningful

*Statutory data prepared in accordance with statutory accounting rules as defined by the National Association of Insurance Commissioners and filed with the appropriate regulatory bodies.



2007 First-Quarter Supplement

 14






Cincinnati Insurance Group - Commercial Lines

Statutory Quarterly Analysis

(Based on reported data - see Page 26 for adjusted data)

(Dollars in millions)

Three months ended

Six months ended

Nine months ended

Twelve months ended

 

12/31/07

9/30/07

6/30/07

3/31/07

12/31/06

9/30/06

6/30/06

3/31/06

6/30/07

6/30/06

9/30/07

9/30/06

12/31/07

12/31/06

Net premiums written

         

$

693

 

$

589

 

$

 582

 

$

 603 

 

$

668

    

$

1,271

    

$

1,853

    

$

2,442 

 

Net premiums earned

         

$

604

 

$

619 

 

$

602

 

$

599 

 

$

582

    

$

1,181

    

$

1,783

    

$

2,402 

 
                                           

Losses paid

         

$

260

 

$

256 

 

$

247

 

$

251 

 

$

233

    

$

485

    

$

  732

    

$

  988 

 

Loss reserve change

          

 23

  

  

 63

  

 53 

  

 53

     

105

     

  168

     

  174 

 

   Total losses incurred

         

$

283

 

$

261 

 

$

310

 

$

304 

 

$

286

    

$

590

    

$

  900

    

$

1,162 

 

Allocated loss expense paid

          

 28

  

 33 

  

 30

  

 28 

  

 24

     

 52

     

 81

     

  114 

 

Allocated loss expense reserve change

          

8

  

 37 

  

7

  

  

5

     

 12

     

 19

     

 56 

 

   Total allocated loss expense incurred

         

$

 36

 

$

 70 

 

$

 37

 

$

 34 

 

$

 29

    

$

 64

    

$

  100

    

$

  170 

 

Unallocated loss expense paid

          

 32

  

 34 

  

 27

  

 27 

  

 28

     

 54

     

 81

     

  116 

 

Unallocated loss expense reserve change

          

3

  

  

3

  

  

 10

     

 13

     

 15

     

 18 

 

   Total unallocated loss expense incurred

         

$

 35

 

$

 37 

 

$

 30

 

$

 30 

 

$

 38

    

$

 67

    

$

 96

    

$

  134 

 

   Underwriting expenses incurred

         

 

193

 

 

194 

 

 

185

 

 

172 

  

179

     

349

     

  536

     

  727 

 

   Underwriting profit (loss)

         

$

 57

 

$

 57 

 

$

 40

 

$

 59 

 

$

 50

    

$

111

 

   

$

  151

 

   

$

  209 

 
                                           

Loss Detail

                            

 

             

Losses $1 million or more

         

$

 45

 

$

 59 

 

$

 51

 

$

 40 

 

$

 30

    

$

 70

    

$

  121

    

$

  180 

 

Losses $250 thousand to $1 million

          

 38

  

 35 

  

 37

  

 39 

  

 28

     

 67

     

  104

     

  139 

 

Development and case reserve increases

   of $250,000 or more

          

 49

  

 58 

  

 45

  

 45 

  

 44

     

 90

     

  135

     

  193 

 

   Large losses subtotal

         

$

132

 

$

152 

 

$

133

 

$

124 

 

$

102

    

$

227

    

$

  360

    

$

  512 

 

IBNR incurred

          

7

  

(45)

  

 10

  

  (6)

  

6

     

 -

     

 10

     

(36)

 

Catastrophe losses incurred

          

 10

  

 11 

  

 14

  

 34 

  

 29

     

 63

     

 77

     

 89 

 

Remaining incurred

         

 

134

 

 

143 

 

 

153

 

 

152 

 

 

149

 

   

 

300

 

   

 

  453

 

   

 

  597 

 

   Total losses incurred

         

$

283

 

$

261 

 

$

310

 

$

304 

 

$

286

 

   

$

590

 

   

$

  900

 

   

$

1,162 

 
                                           

Ratio Data

                            

 

             

Loss ratio

          

46.8

%

 

42.2 

%

 

  51.5

%

 

  50.7 

%

 

49.2

%

    

50.0

%

    

 50.5

%

    

 48.4 

%

Allocated loss expense ratio

          

5.9

  

11.3 

  

6.0

  

5.7 

  

5.1

     

5.4

     

5.6

     

7.1 

 

Unallocated loss expense ratio

          

6.0

  

6.0 

  

5.0

  

4.9 

  

6.5

     

5.7

     

5.4

     

5.5 

 

Net underwriting expense ratio

         

 

27.8

 

 

32.9 

 

 

  31.6

 

 

  28.3 

 

 

26.7

 

   

 

27.5

 

   

 

 28.8

 

   

 

 29.8 

 

   Statutory combined ratio

          

86.5

%

 

92.4 

%

 

  94.1

%

 

  89.6 

%

 

86.5

%

    

88.6

%

    

 90.3

%

    

 90.8 

%

   Statutory combined ratio excluding

      catastrophes

          

84.7

%

 

90.5 

%

 

  91.7

%

 

  84.0 

%

 

82.4

%

    

83.3

%

    

 86.0

%

    

 87.1 

%

                                           

Loss Ratio

                                          

Losses $1 million or more

          

7.4

%

 

9.6 

%

 

8.5

%

 

6.6 

%

 

5.2

%

    

5.9

%

    

6.8

%

    

7.5 

%

Losses $250 thousand to $1 million

          

6.2

  

5.6 

  

6.1

  

6.5 

  

4.8

     

5.7

     

5.8

     

5.8 

 

Development and case reserve increases

   of $250,000 or more

         

 

8.2

 

 

9.4 

 

 

7.5

 

 

7.6 

 

 

7.6

 

   

 

7.6

 

   

 

7.6

 

   

 

8.0 

 

   Large losses subtotal

          

21.8

%

 

24.6 

%

 

  22.1

%

 

  20.7 

%

 

17.6

%

    

 19.2

%

    

 20.2

%

    

 21.3 

%

IBNR incurred

          

1.2

  

(7.3)

  

1.7

  

  (1.0)

  

1.0

     

-  

     

0.6

     

  (1.5)

 

Total catastrophe losses incurred

          

1.8

  

1.9 

  

2.3

  

5.6 

  

5.1

     

5.3

     

4.3

     

3.7 

 

Remaining incurred

         

 

22.0

 

 

23.0 

 

 

  25.4

 

 

  25.4 

 

 

25.5

 

   

 

25.5

 

   

 

 25.4

 

   

 

 24.9 

 

   Total loss ratio

         

 

46.8

%

 

42.2 

%

 

  51.5

%

 

  50.7 

%

 

49.2

%

   

 

50.0

%

   

 

 50.5

%

   

 

 48.4 

%

*Dollar amounts shown are rounded to millions; certain amounts may not add due to rounding. Ratios are calculated based on whole dollar amounts.

*NM – Not meaningful

*Statutory data prepared in accordance with statutory accounting rules as defined by the National Association of Insurance Commissioners and filed with the regulatory bodies.



2007 First-Quarter Supplement

 15






Cincinnati Insurance Group - Personal Lines

Statutory Quarterly Analysis

(Based on reported data - see Page 27 for adjusted data)

(Dollars in millions)

Three months ended

Six months ended

Nine months ended

Twelve months ended

 

12/31/07

9/30/07

6/30/07

3/31/07

12/31/06

9/30/06

6/30/06

3/31/06

6/30/07

6/30/06

9/30/07

9/30/06

12/31/07

12/31/06

Net premiums written

         

$

153 

 

$

166 

 

$

198 

 

$

211 

 

$

161 

 

 

 

 

$

372 

    

$

570 

    

$

736 

 

Net premiums earned

         

$

181 

 

$

183 

 

$

189 

 

$

194 

 

$

196 

    

$

390 

    

$

579 

    

$

762 

 
                                           

Losses paid

         

$

105 

 

$

119 

 

$

119 

 

$

128 

 

$

112 

    

$

242 

    

$

362 

    

$

481 

 

Loss reserve change

          

 (17)

  

(1)

  

 3 

  

 7 

  

 (11)

     

(4)

     

(1)

     

(2)

 

   Total losses incurred

         

$

88 

 

$

118 

 

$

122 

 

$

135 

 

$

101 

    

$

238 

    

$

361 

    

$

479 

 

Allocated loss expense paid

          

  

  

  

  

     

     

10 

     

13 

 

Allocated loss expense reserve change

          

 - 

  

(2)

  

  

  

     

     

     

 - 

 

   Total allocated loss expense incurred

         

$

 

$

 

$

 

$

 

$

    

$

    

$

  11 

    

$

  13 

 

Unallocated loss expense paid

          

14 

  

  15 

  

  12 

  

  12 

  

  12 

     

  24 

     

  36 

     

  51 

 

Unallocated loss expense reserve change

          

(1)

  

(1)

  

  

 - 

  

 - 

     

(1)

     

 - 

     

(1)

 

   Total unallocated loss expense incurred

         

$

13 

 

$

  14 

 

$

  13 

 

$

  12 

 

$

  12 

    

$

  23 

    

$

  36 

    

$

  50 

 

   Underwriting expenses incurred

         

 

55 

 

 

  57 

 

 

  58 

 

 

  60 

  

  61 

     

122 

     

179 

     

238 

 

   Underwriting profit (loss)

         

$

22 

 

$

(8)

 

$

(8)

 

$

 (17)

 

$

  17 

    

$

(1)

    

$

(8)

    

$

 (18)

 
                                           

Loss Detail

                            

 

             

Losses $1 million or more

         

$

 

$

 

$

  10 

 

$

 

$

    

$

    

$

  18 

    

$

  23 

 

Losses $250 thousand to $1 million

          

10 

  

  

  12 

  

  

  10 

     

  19 

     

  31 

     

  39 

 

Development and case reserve increases

   of $250,000 or more

         

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

   

 

  12 

 

   

 

  16 

 

   

 

  22 

 

   Large losses subtotal

         

$

19 

 

$

  18 

 

$

  26 

 

$

  22 

 

$

  17 

    

$

  40 

    

$

  65 

    

$

  84 

 

IBNR incurred

          

 - 

  

 (12)

  

  

  

 - 

     

     

     

 (11)

 

Catastrophe losses incurred

          

(7)

  

  33 

  

  13 

  

  30 

  

  10 

     

  40 

     

  54 

     

  86 

 

Remaining incurred

         

 

76 

 

 

  79 

 

 

  82 

 

 

  82 

 

 

  74 

 

   

 

157 

 

   

 

241 

 

   

 

320 

 

   Total losses incurred

         

$

88 

 

$

118 

 

$

122 

 

$

135 

 

$

101 

 

   

$

238 

 

   

$

361 

 

   

$

479 

 

                                           

Ratio Data

                            

 

             

Loss ratio

          

48.9 

%

 

64.4 

%

 

65.1 

%

 

70.0 

%

 

52.2 

%

    

61.1 

%

    

62.4 

%

    

62.9 

%

Allocated loss expense ratio

          

 1.8 

  

 1.2 

  

 1.9 

  

 2.1 

  

 1.7 

     

 1.9 

     

 2.0 

     

 1.7 

 

Unallocated loss expense ratio

          

 6.6 

  

 7.8 

  

 6.6 

  

 5.8 

  

 6.2 

     

 6.0 

     

 6.1 

     

 6.6 

 

Net underwriting expense ratio

         

 

36.2 

 

 

34.3 

 

 

30.4 

 

 

28.5 

 

 

38.0 

 

   

 

32.6 

 

   

 

31.8 

 

   

 

32.4 

 

   Statutory combined ratio

          

93.5 

%

 

107.7 

%

 

104.0 

%

 

106.4 

%

 

98.1 

%

    

101.6 

%

    

102.3 

%

    

103.6 

%

   Statutory combined ratio excluding

      catastrophes

          

97.6 

%

 

89.8 

%

 

96.9 

%

 

90.8 

%

 

93.1 

%

    

91.3 

%

    

93.1 

%

    

92.3 

%

                                           

Loss Ratio

                                          

Losses $1 million or more

          

3.0 

%

 

 2.2 

%

 

 5.0 

%

 

 3.5 

%

 

 1.2 

%

    

 2.3 

%

    

 3.2 

%

    

 3.0 

%

Losses $250 thousand to $1 million

          

5.4 

  

 4.5 

  

 6.4 

  

 4.4 

  

 5.3 

     

 4.9 

     

 5.4 

     

 5.2 

 

Development and case reserve increases

   of $250,000 or more

          

 2.2 

  

 3.4 

  

 2.1 

  

 3.5 

  

 2.7 

     

 3.1 

     

 2.8 

     

 2.9 

 

   Large losses subtotal

          

10.6 

%

 

10.1 

%

 

13.5 

%

 

11.4 

%

 

 9.2 

%

    

10.3 

%

    

11.4 

%

    

11.1 

%

IBNR incurred

          

-   

  

(6.8)

  

 0.1 

  

 0.7 

  

-   

     

 0.3 

     

 0.3

     

(1.5)

 

Total catastrophe losses incurred

          

(4.1)

  

17.9 

  

 7.1 

  

15.6 

  

 5.0 

     

10.3 

     

 9.2

     

11.3

 

Remaining incurred

         

 

42.4 

 

 

43.2 

 

 

44.4 

 

 

42.3 

 

 

38.0 

 

   

 

40.2 

 

   

 

41.5

 

   

 

42.0

 

   Total loss ratio

         

 

48.9 

%

 

64.4 

%

 

65.1 

%

 

70.0 

%

 

52.2 

%

   

 

61.1 

%

   

 

62.4

%

   

 

62.9

%

*Dollar amounts shown are rounded to millions; certain amounts may not add due to rounding. Ratios are calculated based on whole dollar amounts.

*NM – Not meaningful

*Statutory data prepared in accordance with statutory accounting rules as defined by the National Association of Insurance Commissioners and filed with the appropriate regulatory bodies.



2007 First-Quarter Supplement

 16





Cincinnati Insurance Group

 Direct Written Premiums by Risk State by Line of Business for the Three Months Ended March 31, 2007

 (Dollars in millions)

  

3/31/2007

3/31/2006

 

 Comm  

 Comm

 Comm

Workers'

Specialty

 Surety &

Mach. &

Pers

Home

Other

Agency

Agency

Change

 State

Casualty

 Prop

 Auto

 Comp

Packages

Exec Risk

Equip

Auto

Owner

Personal

Direct

Direct

 %

 

                        

 

 AL

$

5.6

$

4.5

$

2.3

$

0.4 

$

2.0

$

0.5

$

0.1

$

3.4

$

4.8

$

1.0

$

24.5

$

21.7

12.7 

 AZ

 

3.9

 

1.8

 

2.3

 

0.1 

 

0.3

 

0.1

 

0.1

 

0.0

 

0.0

 

0.0

 

8.7

 

8.0

7.7 

 AR

 

2.7

 

2.0

 

1.5

 

1.7 

 

1.2

 

0.5

 

0.1

 

0.6

 

0.7

 

0.2

 

11.3

 

12.4

(9.5)

 DE

 

0.2

 

0.2

 

0.1

 

0.7 

 

0.0

 

0.0

 

0.0

 

0.0

 

0.0

 

0.0

 

1.4

 

0.6

94.0 

 FL

 

11.0

 

7.2

 

3.5

 

0.6 

 

1.0

 

0.5

 

0.2

 

3.2

 

7.3

 

1.0

 

35.6

 

29.4

21.3 

 GA

 

8.0

 

5.1

 

5.7

 

3.5 

 

1.9

 

1.7

 

0.2

 

7.1

 

5.8

 

1.5

 

40.5

 

39.4

2.8 

 ID

 

2.4

 

0.9

 

1.4

 

0.0 

 

0.3

 

0.4

 

0.1

 

0.0

 

0.0

 

0.0

 

5.6

 

4.1

29.5 

 IL

 

23.4

 

13.2

 

10.1

 

17.2 

 

3.6

 

1.8

 

0.7

 

5.1

 

3.9

 

1.5

 

80.5

 

80.8

(0.4)

 IN

 

16.8

 

11.5

 

8.5

 

9.6 

 

2.2

 

1.6

 

0.7

 

5.7

 

5.2

 

1.4

 

63.3

 

63.2

(0.1)

 IA

 

6.5

 

3.5

 

2.6

 

7.2 

 

1.3

 

0.7

 

0.3

 

0.9

 

0.9

 

0.4

 

24.3

 

23.5

2.7 

 KS

 

2.7

 

2.7

 

1.2

 

2.3 

 

0.9

 

0.4

 

0.1

 

1.0

 

1.2

 

0.3

 

12.8

 

11.7

10.5 

 KY

 

5.9

 

5.4

 

4.1

 

0.9 

 

1.3

 

0.7

 

0.2

 

4.1

 

3.1

 

0.9

 

26.5

 

25.5

3.8 

 MD

 

4.1

 

1.6

 

3.2

 

2.8 

 

0.3

 

0.5

 

0.1

 

0.0

 

0.3

 

0.1

 

13.0

 

10.6

23.3 

 MI

 

10.6

 

6.7

 

5.0

 

5.6 

 

3.3

 

1.4

 

0.4

 

3.0

 

3.0

 

0.7

 

39.9

 

43.5

(8.3)

 MN

 

8.1

 

5.0

 

3.3

 

2.8 

 

1.4

 

0.7

 

0.3

 

1.5

 

1.3

 

0.9

 

25.3

 

23.2

8.7 

 MO

 

8.2

 

5.4

 

3.3

 

5.1 

 

1.6

 

0.4

 

0.3

 

0.6

 

1.0

 

0.2

 

26.1

 

24.4

7.0 

 MT

 

3.9

 

1.9

 

2.0

 

0.1 

 

0.3

 

0.1

 

0.1

 

0.0

 

0.0

 

0.0

 

8.4

 

7.1

17.4 

 NE

 

2.0

 

1.5

 

0.8

 

2.1 

 

0.5

 

0.4

 

0.1

 

0.2

 

0.3

 

0.1

 

8.0

 

9.7

(18.9)

 NH

 

0.9

 

0.7

 

0.4

 

0.9 

 

0.2

 

0.1

 

0.0

 

0.2

 

0.2

 

0.1

 

3.6

 

3.6

(0.3)

 NY

 

7.7

 

1.6

 

2.2

 

0.9 

 

0.3

 

1.0

 

0.1

 

0.0

 

0.0

 

0.0

 

13.8

 

11.2

23.1 

 NC

 

12.2

 

7.5

 

5.9

 

7.9 

 

3.2

 

1.9

 

0.3

 

0.3

 

0.3

 

0.6

 

40.2

 

36.8

9.0 

 ND

 

1.4

 

1.0

 

0.7

 

0.0 

 

0.2

 

0.2

 

0.0

 

0.1

 

0.1

 

0.0

 

3.9

 

3.7

0.7 

 OH

 

47.9

 

25.6

 

18.8

 

 (0.4)

 

5.7

 

5.9

 

1.2

 

27.7

 

18.9

 

6.6

 

158.0

 

163.1

(3.1)

 PA

 

14.3

 

8.2

 

8.5

 

15.9 

 

2.6

 

1.8

 

0.5

 

1.7

 

1.2

 

0.8

 

55.6

 

55.0

1.0 

 SC

 

3.8

 

2.2

 

2.1

 

1.6 

 

0.6

 

0.6

 

0.1

 

0.0

 

0.0

 

0.1

 

11.1

 

10.2

9.7 

 SD

 

1.2

 

0.7

 

0.7

 

1.6 

 

0.1

 

0.2

 

0.0

 

0.0

 

0.0

 

0.0

 

4.7

 

4.2

9.2 

 TN

 

7.7

 

4.9

 

4.8

 

4.3 

 

2.6

 

1.1

 

0.3

 

1.8

 

1.9

 

0.7

 

30.3

 

29.9

1.0 

 UT

 

2.9

 

1.1

 

1.3

 

0.1 

 

0.1

 

0.5

 

0.1

 

0.0

 

0.0

 

0.0

 

6.1

 

4.1

46.8 

 VT

 

1.3

 

1.0

 

0.7

 

2.0 

 

0.3

 

0.1

 

0.1

 

0.2

 

0.2

 

0.1

 

5.9

 

5.5

10.7 

 VA

 

10.7

 

8.0

 

7.7

 

8.0 

 

1.3

 

1.1

 

0.3

 

2.1

 

1.6

 

0.6

 

41.4

 

40.3

2.7 

 WV

 

2.8

 

1.8

 

1.7

 

0.0 

 

0.6

 

0.2

 

0.1

 

0.0

 

0.2

 

0.1

 

7.5

 

7.2

5.7 

 WI

 

9.3

 

5.0

 

3.3

 

9.6 

 

  1.3

 

  0.7

 

  0.4

 

  2.0

 

  1.5

 

  0.7

 

33.8

 

36.7

7.4 

 All Other

 

  2.6

 

  1.1

 

  1.2

 

  1.4 

 

  0.0

 

  0.3

 

  0.0

 

  0.0

 

  0.1

 

  0.0

 

  6.8

 

  6.0

22.8 

 Total Agency Direct

$

252.5

$

150.3

$

121.1

$

116.6 

$

42.7

$

28.2

$

  7.8

$

72.8

$

65.3

$

20.8

$

878.1

$

856.3

2.5 

 Other Direct

 

0.0

 

  0.0

 

  0.2

 

  0.1 

 

  0.2

 

  1.7

 

  0.0

 

  0.7

 

  0.2

 

  0.4

 

  3.5

 

  3.9

(11.7)

 Total Direct

$

252.5

$

150.3

 $

121.4

$

116.7 

$

42.9

$

29.8

$

  7.8

$

73.5

$

65.4

$

21.2

$

881.6

$

860.2

2.4 



2007 First-Quarter Supplement

 17






Cincinnati Insurance Group

Quarterly Property Casualty Data - By Commercial Lines of Business

 

 (Dollars in millions)

Three months ended

Six months ended

Nine months ended

Twelve months ended

 

 

12/31/07

9/30/07

6/30/07

3/31/07

12/31/06

9/30/06

6/30/06

3/31/06

6/30/07

6/30/06

9/30/07

9/30/06

12/31/07

12/31/06

 

Commercial Casualty

                                           

Written premiums

         

$

245 

 

$

204 

 

$

196

 

$

209

 

$

228

    

$

408

    

$

590

    

$

779

  

Earned premiums

          

209 

  

219 

  

207

  

208

  

197

     

373

     

564

     

759

  

Loss and loss expenses ratio

          

53.5 

%

 

58.8 

%

 

49.4

%

 

51.8

%

 

51.3

%

    

53.7

%

    

51.6

%

    

39.7

%

 

Less catastrophe loss ratio

          

  

  

-

  

-

  

-

     

-

     

-

     

-

  

Loss and loss expenses
   excluding catastrophe loss ratio

          

53.5 

%

 

58.8 

%

 

49.4

%

 

51.8

%

 

51.3

%

    

53.7

%

    

51.6

%

    

39.7

%

 
                                            

Commercial property:

                                           

Written premiums

         

$

138 

 

$

124 

 

$

126

 

$

122

 

$

134

    

$

261

    

$

382

    

$

502

  

Earned premiums

          

123 

  

123 

  

123

  

123

  

121

     

247

     

366

     

493

  

Loss and loss expenses ratio

          

53.6 

%

 

47.0 

%

 

54.9

%

 

55.8

%

 

72.6

%

    

53.6

%

    

65.6

%

    

62.0

%

 

Less catastrophe loss ratio

          

6.9 

 

 

7.1 

 

 

9.9

 

 

15.9

 

 

22.7

     

2.5

     

15.3

     

14.1

 

 

Loss and loss expenses
  excluding catastrophe loss ratio

          

46.7 

%

 

39.9 

%

 

45.0

%

 

39.9

%

 

49.9

%

    

51.1

%

    

50.3

%

    

47.9

%

 
                                            

Commercial auto:

                                           

Written premiums

         

$

124 

 

$

105 

 

$

105

 

$

115

 

$

126

    

$

233

    

$

341

    

$

448

  

Earned premiums

          

113 

  

116 

  

113

  

112

  

112

     

226

     

340

     

457

  

Loss and loss expenses ratio

          

64.6 

%

 

58.5 

%

 

72.8

%

 

57.0

%

 

57.7

%

    

59.0

%

    

59.6

%

    

60.1

%

 

Less catastrophe loss ratio

          

(0.2)

 

 

0.6 

  

(0.5)

  

3.1

  

0.6

     

0.1

     

0.1

     

0.1

 

 

Loss and loss expenses
   excluding catastrophe loss ratio

          

64.8 

%

 

57.9 

%

 

73.3

%

 

53.9

%

 

57.1

%

    

58.9

%

    

59.5

%

    

60.0

%

 
                                            

Workers' compensation:

                                           

Written premiums

         

$

113 

 

$

 91 

 

$

 85

 

$

 91

 

$

111

    

$

182

    

$

258

    

$

338

  

Earned premiums

          

 92 

  

 95 

  

 93

  

 90

  

 88

     

161

     

244

     

328

  

Loss and loss expenses ratio

          

76.5 

%

 

89.3 

%

 

90.3

%

 

83.1

%

 

78.6

%

    

76.9

%

    

75.9

%

    

90.9

%

 

Less catastrophe loss ratio

          

-   

 

 

-   

  

-  

  

-  

  

-  

     

-  

     

-  

     

-  

 

 

Loss and loss expenses
  excluding catastrophe loss ratio

          

76.5 

%

 

89.3 

%

 

90.3

%

 

83.1

%

 

78.6

%

    

76.9

%

    

75.9

%

    

90.9

%

 
                                            

Specialty package:

                                           

Written premiums

         

$

 41 

 

$

 35 

 

$

 35

 

$

 34

 

$

 40

    

$

 71

    

$

105

    

$

138

  

Earned premiums

          

 36 

  

 35 

  

 35

  

 35

  

 36

     

 68

     

103

     

137

  

Loss and loss expenses ratio

          

69.6 

%

 

44.9 

%

 

74.2

%

 

82.1

%

 

64.3

%

    

72.4

%

    

71.5

%

    

67.0

%

 

Less Catastrophe loss ratio

          

7.0 

 

 

5.8 

  

7.1

  

29.2

  

3.6

     

3.1

     

5.4

     

5.2

 

 

Loss and loss expenses
  excluding catastrophe loss ratio

          

62.6 

%

 

39.1 

%

 

67.1

%

 

52.9

%

 

60.7

%

    

69.3

%

    

66.1

%

    

61.8

%

 
                                            

Surety and executive risk:

                                           

Written premiums

         

$

 25 

 

$

 23 

 

$

 28

 

$

 24

 

$

 22

    

$

 38

    

$

 63

    

$

 85

  

Earned premiums

          

 24 

  

 24 

  

 24

  

 24

  

 21

     

 38

     

 59

     

 80

  

Loss and loss expenses ratio

          

24.0 

%

 

36.3 

%

 

47.3

%

 

89.6

%

 

26.5

%

    

16.9

%

    

22.0

%

    

34.2

%

 

Less catastrophe loss ratio

          

 -   

 

 

 -   

  

 -  

  

 -  

  

 -  

     

 -  

     

 -  

     

 -  

 

 

Loss and loss expenses
  excluding catastrophe loss ratio

          

24.0 

%

 

36.3 

%

 

47.3

%

 

89.6

%

 

26.5

%

    

16.9

%

    

22.0

%

    

34.2

%

 
                                            

Machinery and equipment:

                                           

Written premiums

         

$

 7 

 

$

 7 

 

$

 7

 

$

 8

 

$

 7

    

$

  15

    

$

  22

    

$

  29

  

Earned premiums

          

 7 

  

 7 

  

 7

  

 7

  

 7

     

  14

     

  20

     

  27

  

Loss and loss expense ratio

          

28.2 

%

 

62.4 

%

 

45.2

%

 

27.0

%

 

32.2

%

    

29.6

%

    

34.8

%

    

42.0

%

 

Less catastrophe loss ratio

          

(1.6)

  

(0.5)

  

 2.1

  

 -  

  

 -  

     

 0.1

     

 0.8

     

 0.4

  

Loss and loss expense
  excluding catastrophe loss ratio

          

29.8 

%

 

62.9 

%

 

43.1

%

 

27.0

%

 

32.2

%

    

29.5

%

    

34.0

%

   

 

41.6

%

 
  

*Dollar amounts shown are rounded to millions; certain amounts may not add due to rounding. Ratios are calculated based on whole dollar amounts. The sum of quarterly amounts may not equal the full year as each is computed independently.

 



2007 First-Quarter Supplement

 18






Cincinnati Insurance Group

Quarterly Property Casualty Data - By Personal Lines of Business

 

 

(Dollars in millions)

Three months ended

Six months ended

Nine months ended

Twelve months ended

 

 

12/31/07

9/30/07

6/30/07

3/31/07

12/31/06

9/30/06

6/30/06

3/31/06

6/30/07

6/30/06

9/30/07

9/30/06

12/31/07

12/31/06

 

Personal auto:

                       

 

           

 

       

Written premiums

         

$

72 

 

$

79

 

$

96

 

$

104

 

$

79

 

   

 $

184

    

 $

279

 

   

 $

359

  

Earned premiums

          

88 

  

91

  

95

  

98

  

101

 

    

199

     

294

 

    

385

  

Loss and loss expenses ratio

          

66.5 

%

 

74.3

%

 

60.6

%

 

65.8

%

 

60.1

%

    

62.9

%

    

62.2

%

    

65.0

%

 

Less catastrophe loss ratio

          

(2.3)

 

 

 5.7

  

 1.4

  

 3.6

  

 0.8

 

 

 

  

 2.2

     

 2.0

 

 

 

 

0

 2.8

 

 

Loss and loss expenses
   excluding catastrophe loss ratio

         

 

68.8 

%

 

68.6

%

 

59.2

%

 

62.2

%

 

59.3

%

    

60.7

%

    

60.2

%

 

 

 

 

62.2

%

 

 

         

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

           

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Homeowner:

                       

 

           

 

       

Written premiums

         

$

61 

 

$

66

 

$

79

 

$

83

 

$

62

 

   

 $

 144

    

 $

 224

 

   

 $

 290

  

Earned premiums

          

71 

  

70

  

72

  

74

  

73

 

    

 146

     

 219

 

    

 289

  

Loss and loss expenses ratio

          

50.0 

%

 

80.8

%

 

93.9

%

 

93.1

%

 

64.0

%

    

78.6

%

    

83.7

%

    

83.0

%

 

Less catastrophe loss ratio

          

(7.5)

  

36.0

  

15.0

  

33.1

  

11.1

     

22.1

     

19.8

     

23.7

  

Loss and loss expenses
  excluding catastrophe loss ratio

         

 

57.5 

%

 

44.8

%

 

78.9

%

 

60.0

%

 

52.9

%

    

56.5

%

    

63.9

%

 

 

 

 

59.3

%

 
                                            

Other personal:

                       

 

           

 

       

Written premiums

         

$

20 

 

$

21

 

$

23

 

$

24

 

$

20

 

   

 $

44

    

 $

67

 

   

 $

87

  

Earned premiums

          

22 

  

22

  

22

  

22

  

22

 

    

45

     

66

 

    

88

  

Loss and loss expenses ratio

          

43.4 

%

 

45.6

%

 

63.3

%

 

80.9

%

 

47.4

%

    

64.2

%

    

63.9

%

    

59.4

%

 

Less Catastrophe loss ratio

          

(0.1)

  

 9.9

  

 5.2

  

10.8

  

 3.8

     

 7.4

     

 6.6

     

 7.4

  

Loss and loss expenses
  excluding catastrophe loss ratio

          

43.5 

%

 

35.7

%

 

58.1

%

 

70.1

%

 

43.6

%

    

56.8

%

    

57.3

%

    

52.0

%

 
                                            

*Dollar amounts shown are rounded to millions; certain amounts may not add due to rounding. Ratios are calculated based on whole dollar amounts. The sum of quarterly amounts may not

equal the full year as each is computed independently.



2007 First-Quarter Supplement

 19






Cincinnati Insurance Group

10-Year Property Casualty Data - Consolidated

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

(Dollars in millions)

Years ended December 31,

 

2006

2005

2004

2003

2002

2001

2000

1999

1998

1997

Premiums

                              

   Adjusted written premiums (statutory)*

$

3,172 

 

$

3,097 

 

$

3,026 

 

 $

2,789

 

 $

2,496

 

$

2,188

 

 $

1,936 

 

 $

1,681

 

 $

1,558

 

 $

1,472

 

   Codification

 

  

  

  

-

  

-

  

402

  

(55)

  

-

  

-

  

-

 

   Written premium adjustment -- statutory only

 

  

(21)

 

 

(29)

 

 

26

 

 

117

 

 

-

 

 

 

 

-

 

 

-

 

 

-

 

   Reported written premiums (statutory)**

 

3,178 

  

3,076 

  

2,997 

  

2,815

  

2,613

  

2,590

  

1,881 

  

1,681

  

1,558

  

1,472

 

   Unearned premiums change

 

(14)

  

(18)

 

 

(78)

 

 

(162)

 

 

(222)

 

 

(517)

 

 

(53)

 

 

(23)

 

 

(15)

 

 

(18)

 

   Earned premiums (GAAP)

$

3,164 

 

$

3,058 

 

$

2,919 

 

 $

2,653

 

 $

2,391

 

$

2,073

 

 $

1,828 

 

 $

1,658

 

 $

1,543

 

 $

1,454

 

                               

Year-over-year growth rate:

                              

   Adjusted written premiums (statutory)

 

          2.4 

%

          2.3 

%

       8.5 

%

11.7

%

14.0

%

13.0

%

15.2 

%

7.9

%

5.8

%

6.4

%

   Written premiums (statutory)

 

3.3 

%

2.6 

%

6.5 

%

7.7

%

0.9

%

37.7

%

11.9 

%

7.9

%

5.8

%

6.4

%

   Earned premiums

 

3.5 

%

4.8 

%

10.0 

%

11.0

%

15.3

%

13.4

%

10.3 

%

7.5

%

6.1

%

6.4

%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Statutory combined ratio

                              

   Reported statutory combined ratio*

 

93.9 

%

89.0 

  

89.4 

%

94.2

%

98.4

%

99.5

%

112.5 

%

100.4

%

104.2

%

98.3

%

   Codification

 

  

  

  

-

  

-

  

4.1

  

(0.9)

  

-

  

-

  

-

 

   Written premium adjustment -- statutory only

 

nm 

  

nm 

  

nm 

  

nm

  

1.2

  

-

  

  

-

  

-

  

-

 

   One-time item

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

0.8

 

 

-

 

 

-

 

 

(1.7)

 

 

-

 

 

-

 

 

-

 

   Statutory combined ratio (adjusted)

 

93.9 

%

89.0 

%

89.4 

%

95.0

%

99.6

%

103.6

%

109.9 

%

100.4

%

104.2

%

98.3

%

   Less catastrophe losses

 

5.5 

 

 

4.1 

 

 

5.1 

 

 

3.6

 

 

3.6

 

 

3.1

 

 

2.7 

 

 

2.5

 

 

6.1

  

 

 

   Statutory combined ratio excluding
     catastrophe losses (adjusted)

 

88.4 

%

84.9 

% 

84.3 

%

 

91.4

%

 

96.0

% 

100.5

%

 

107.2 

%

 

97.9

%

 

98.1

%

   
                               

   Reported commission expense ratio*

 

18.7 

%

19.3 

%

19.2 

%

17.6

%

15.9

%

13.9

%

17.4 

%

17.4

%

17.6

%

   

   Codification

 

  

  

  

-

  

-

  

2.6

  

(0.5)

  

-

  

-

    

   Written premium adjustment -- statutory only

 

nm 

  

nm 

  

nm 

  

nm

  

0.8

  

-

  

  

-

  

-

    

   One-time item

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

-

 

 

-

 

 

-

 

 

 

 

-

 

 

-

    

   Commission expense ratio (adjusted)

 

18.7 

%

19.3 

%

19.2 

%

 

17.6

%

 

16.7

% 

16.5

%

 

16.9 

%

 

17.4

%

 

17.6

%

   
                               

   Reported other expense ratio*

 

11.7 

%

10.5 

%

10.1 

%

8.9

%

9.6

%

8.7

%

12.6 

%

11.4

%

11.9

%

   

   Codification

 

  

  

  

-

  

-

  

1.5

  

(0.4)

  

-

  

-

    

   Written premium adjustment -- statutory only

 

nm 

  

nm 

  

nm 

  

nm

  

0.4

  

-

  

  

-

  

-

    

   One-time item

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

0.8

 

 

-

 

 

-

 

 

(1.7)

 

 

-

 

 

-

    

   Other expense ratio (adjusted)

 

11.7 

%

10.5 

%

10.1 

%

 

9.7

%

 

10.0

% 

10.2

%

 

10.5 

%

 

11.4

%

 

11.9

%

   
                               

   Reported statutory expense ratio*

 

30.4 

%

29.8 

%

29.3 

%

26.5

%

25.5

%

22.6

%

30.0 

%

28.8

%

29.5

%

   

   Codification

 

  

  

  

-

  

-

  

4.1

  

(0.9)

  

-

  

-

    

   Written premium adjustment -- statutory only

 

nm 

  

nm 

  

nm 

  

nm

  

1.2

  

-

  

  

-

  

-

    

   One-time item

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

0.8

 

 

-

 

 

-

 

 

(1.7)

 

 

-

 

 

-

   

 

   Statutory expense ratio (adjusted)

 

30.4 

%

29.8 

%

29.3 

%

 

27.3

%

 

26.7

%

26.7

%

 

27.4 

%

 

28.8

%

 

29.5

%

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

  

 

 

GAAP combined ratio

                              

   GAAP combined ratio

 

94.3 

%

89.2 

%

89.8 

%

94.7

%

99.7

%

104.9

%

112.8 

%

100.2

%

104.3

%

98.4

%

   One-time item

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

0.8

 

 

-

 

 

-

 

 

(2.1)

 

 

-

 

 

-

 

 

-

 

   GAAP combined ratio before one-time item

 

94.3 

%

89.2 

%

89.8 

%

 

95.5

%

 

99.7

%

104.9

%

 

110.7 

%

 

100.2

%

 

104.3

%

 

98.4

%

                               

Written premiums to surplus

                              

   Adjusted premiums to statutory surplus ratio

 

0.672 

  

0.739 

  

0.721 

  

1.002

  

1.067

  

0.864

             

   Written premium adjustment

 

0.001 

 

 

(0.005)

 

 

(0.007)

 

 

0.010

 

 

0.050

  

0.159

             

   Reported premiums to statutory surplus ratio

 

0.673 

 

 

0.734 

 

 

0.714 

 

 

1.012

 

 

1.117

  

1.023

             
                               

*Dollar amounts shown are rounded to millions; certain amounts may not add due to rounding. Ratios are calculated based on whole dollar amounts.

*nm – Not meaningful

*Statutory data prepared in accordance with statutory accounting rules as defined by the National Association of Insurance Commissioners and filed with the appropriate regulatory bodies.

**Prior to 2001, property casualty written premiums were recognized as they were billed throughout the policy period. Effective January 1, 2001, written premiums have been recognized on an annualized basis at the effective

date of the policy.  Written premiums for 2000 were reclassified to conform with the 2001 presentation; information was not readily available to reclassify earlier year statutory data. The growth rates in written premiums

between 1999 and 2000 are overstated because 1999 premiums are shown on a billed basis.



2007 First-Quarter Supplement

 20





Cincinnati Insurance Group

6-Year Property Casualty Data - Commercial Lines

 

(Dollars in millions)

Years ended December 31,

 

2006

2005

2004

2003

2002

2001

Premiums

                  

   Adjusted written premiums (statutory)*

$

2,435 

 

$

2,306 

 

$

2,209 

 

$

2,009 

 

$

1,795 

 

$

1,551 

 

   Codification

 

       - 

  

       - 

  

       - 

  

       - 

  

       - 

  

  276 

 

   Written premium adjustment – statutory only

 

      7 

 

 

   (16)

 

 

   (23)

 

 

    22 

 

 

  110 

 

 

       - 

 

   Reported written premiums (statutory)

$

2,442 

 

$

2,290 

 

$

2,186 

 

$

2,031 

 

$

1,905 

 

$

1,827 

 

   Unearned premiums change

 

   (40)

 

 

   (36)

 

 

   (60)

 

 

 (123)

 

 

 (184)

 

 

 (374)

 

   Earned premiums (GAAP)

$

2,402 

 

$

2,254 

 

$

2,126 

 

$

1,908 

 

$

1,721 

 

$

1,453 

 

                   

Year-over-year growth rate:

                  

   Adjusted written premiums (statutory)

 

   5.6 

%

 

   4.4 

%

 10.0 

%

 11.9 

%

 15.8 

%

 16.9 

%

   Written premiums (statutory)

 

   6.6 

%

 

   4.8 

%

   7.6 

%

   6.6 

%

   4.2 

%

 43.3 

%

   Earned premiums

 

   6.6 

%

 

   6.0 

%

 11.4 

%

 10.8 

%

 18.6 

%

 17.9 

%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Statutory combined ratio

                  

   Reported statutory combined ratio*

 

 90.8 

%

 

 87.1 

  

 83.7 

%

 90.9 

%

 95.3 

%

 96.7 

%

   Codification

 

      - 

  

      - 

  

      - 

  

      - 

  

      -   

  

   4.0 

 

   Written premium adjustment – statutory only

 

 nm 

  

 nm 

  

 nm 

  

 nm 

  

   1.5 

  

      -   

 

   One-time item

 

      - 

  

      - 

 

 

      - 

 

 

   0.7 

 

 

      -   

 

 

      -   

 

   Statutory combined ratio (adjusted)

 

90.8 

%

 

 87.1 

%

 83.7 

%

 91.6 

%

 96.8 

%

100.7 

%

   Less catastrophe losses

 

3.7 

  

   3.4 

  

   3.4 

  

   2.2 

  

   2.3 

  

   1.9 

 

   Statutory combined ratio excluding

     catastrophe losses (adjusted)

 

87.1 

%

 

 83.7 

%

 80.3 

%

 89.4 

%

 94.5 

%

 98.8 

%

                   

GAAP combined ratio

                  

   GAAP combined ratio

 

 91.3 

%

 

 87.4 

%

 84.1 

%

 91.3 

%

 96.6 

%

101.7 

%

   One-time item

 

      -   

 

 

      -   

 

 

      -   

 

 

   0.8 

 

 

      -   

 

 

      -   

 

   GAAP combined ratio before one-time item

 

 91.3 

%

 

 87.4 

%

 

 84.1 

%

 

 92.1 

%

 

 96.6 

%

 

101.7 

%

 

*Dollar amounts shown are rounded to millions; certain amounts may not add due to rounding. Ratios are calculated based on whole dollar amounts.

*nm – Not meaningful

*Statutory data prepared in accordance with statutory accounting rules as defined by the National Association of Insurance Commissioners and filed

with the appropriate regulatory bodies.



2007 First-Quarter Supplement

 21






Cincinnati Insurance Group

6-Year Property Casualty Data - Personal Lines

 

(Dollars in millions)

Years ended December 31,

 

2006

2005

2004

2003

2002

2001

Premiums

                  

   Adjusted written premiums (statutory)*

$

         737 

 

$

         791 

 

$

         817 

 

$

         780 

 

$

         701 

 

$

          637 

 

   Codification

 

             - 

  

             - 

  

             - 

  

             - 

  

             - 

  

          126 

 

   Written premium adjustment – statutory only

 

            (1)

 

 

            (5)

 

 

            (6)

 

 

             4 

 

 

             7 

 

 

              - 

 

   Reported written premiums (statutory)

$

         736 

 

$

         786 

 

$

         811 

 

$

         784 

 

$

         708 

 

$

          763 

 

   Unearned premiums change

 

           26 

 

 

           18 

 

 

          (18)

 

 

          (39)

 

 

          (38)

 

 

         (143)

 

   Earned premiums (GAAP)

$

         762 

 

$

         804 

 

$

         793 

 

$

         745 

 

$

         670 

 

$

          620 

 

                   

Year-over-year growth rate:

                  

   Adjusted written premiums (statutory)

 

         (6.8)

%

 

         (3.2)

%

          4.7 

%

        12.0 

%

          9.8 

%

           4.6 

%

   Written premiums (statutory)

 

         (6.4)

%

 

         (3.1)

%

          3.4 

%

        10.8 

%

         (7.2)

%

         26.1 

%

   Earned premiums

 

         (5.2)

%

 

          1.4 

%

          6.4 

%

        11.2 

%

          8.1 

%

           4.0 

%

                   

Statutory combined ratio

                  

   Reported statutory combined ratio*

 

      103.6 

%

 

        94.3 

  

      104.6 

%

      102.9 

%

      106.5 

%

       105.9 

%

   Codification

 

            -   

  

            -   

  

            -   

  

            -   

  

            -   

  

           4.6 

 

   Written premium adjustment – statutory only

 

 nm   

  

 nm   

  

 nm   

  

 nm   

  

          0.3 

  

             -   

 

   One-time item

 

            -   

 

 

            -   

 

 

            -   

 

 

          1.0 

 

 

            -   

 

 

             -   

 

   Statutory combined ratio (adjusted)

 

      103.6 

%

 

        94.3 

%

      104.6 

%

      103.9 

%

      106.8 

%

       110.5 

%

   Less catastrophe losses

 

        11.3 

  

          6.3 

  

          9.7 

  

          7.3 

  

          7.1 

  

           5.8 

 

   Statutory combined ratio excluding
     catastrophe losses (adjusted)

 

        92.3 

%

 

        88.0 

%

 

        94.9 

%

 

        96.6 

%

 

        99.7 

%

 

       104.7 

%

                   

GAAP combined ratio

                  

   GAAP combined ratio

 

      103.6 

%

 

        94.4 

%

      105.0 

%

      103.6 

%

      107.6 

%

       112.4 

%

   One-time item

 

            -   

 

 

            -   

 

 

            -   

 

 

          1.1 

 

 

            -   

 

 

             -   

 

   GAAP combined ratio before one-time item

 

      103.6 

%

 

        94.4 

%

      105.0 

%

      104.7 

%

      107.6 

%

       112.4 

%

                   

*Dollar amounts shown are rounded to millions; certain amounts may not add due to rounding. Ratios are calculated based on whole dollar amounts.

*nm – Not meaningful

*Statutory data prepared in accordance with statutory accounting rules as defined by the National Association of Insurance Commissioners and filed with the

appropriate regulatory bodies.



2007 First-Quarter Supplement

 22






Cincinnati Insurance Group

Quarterly Property Casualty Data - Consolidated

 

(Dollars in millions)

Three months ended

Six months ended

Nine months ended

Twelve months ended

 

12/31/07

9/30/07

6/30/07

3/31/07

12/31/06

9/30/06

6/30/06

3/31/06

6/30/07

6/30/06

9/30/07

9/30/06

12/31/07

12/31/06

Premiums

                                          

   Adjusted written premiums (statutory)

         

 $

811 

 

 $

785 

 

 $

787 

 

 $

804 

 

 $

796 

    

 $

1,600 

    

 $

2,387 

    

 $

3,172 

 

   Written premium adjustment –
      statutory only

         

 

 35 

 

 

(30)

 

 

  (7)

  

 10 

  

 33 

     

 43 

     

 36 

     

   6 

 

   Reported written premiums (statutory)*

        

 $

846 

 

 $

755 

 

 $

780 

 

 $

814 

 

 $

829 

    

 $

1,643 

    

 $

2,423 

    

 $

3,178 

 

   Unearned premiums change

         

 

(61)

 

 

 47 

 

 

 11 

 

 

(21)

 

 

(51)

     

(72)

     

(60)

     

(14)

 

   Earned premiums

         

 $

785 

 

 $

802 

 

 $

791 

 

 $

793 

 

 $

778 

    

 $

1,571 

    

 $

2,363 

    

 $

   3,164 

 
                                           

Statutory combined ratio

                                          

   Statutory combined ratio

          

87.7 

%

 

95.9 

%

 

96.4 

%

 

93.7 

%

 

89.6 

%

    

91.7 

%

    

93.2 

%

    

93.9 

%

   Less catastrophe losses

          

0.4 

 

 

5.5 

 

 

3.5 

 

 

8.0 

 

 

5.0 

     

6.5 

 

    

5.5 

     

4.1 

 

   Statutory combined ratio
       excluding catastrophe losses

          

87.3 

%

 

90.4 

%

 

92.9 

%

 

85.7 

%

 

84.6 

%

    

85.2 

%

    

87.7 

%

    

89.8 

%

                                           

   Commission expense ratio

          

18.0 

%

 

19.9 

%

 

19.3 

%

 

17.6 

%

 

18.2 

%

    

17.9 

%

 

   

18.3 

%

    

18.7 

%

   Other expense ratio

          

11.4 

%

 

13.4 

%

 

11.9 

%

 

10.8 

%

 

10.8 

%

    

10.8 

%

 

 

 

 

11.2 

%

    

11.7 

%

   Statutory expense ratio

          

29.4 

%

 

33.3 

%

 

31.2 

%

 

28.4 

%

 

29.0 

%

    

28.7 

%

 

 

 

 

29.5 

%

    

30.4 

%

                               

 

           

GAAP combined ratio

                                          

   GAAP combined ratio

          

89.6 

%

 

94.5 

%

 

96.1 

%

 

94.5 

%

 

92.0 

%

    

93.3 

%

 

   

94.2 

%

    

94.3 

%

                                           

*Dollar amounts shown are rounded to millions; certain amounts may not add due to rounding.  Ratios are calculated based on whole dollar amounts. The sum of quarterly amounts may not equal the

full year as each is computed independently.

*nm – Not meaningful

*Statutory data prepared in accordance with statutory accounting rules ad defined by the National Association of Insurance Commissioners and filed with the appropriate regulatory bodies.



2007 First-Quarter Supplement

 23






Cincinnati Insurance Group

Quarterly Property Casualty Data - Commercial Lines

 

(Dollars in millions)

Three months ended

Six months ended

Nine months ended

Twelve months ended

 

12/31/07

9/30/07

6/30/07

3/31/07

12/31/06

9/30/06

6/30/06

3/31/06

6/30/07

6/30/06

9/30/07

9/30/06

12/31/07

12/31/06

Premiums

                                          

   Adjusted written premiums (statutory)

         

$

658 

 

$

618 

 

$

589 

 

$

593 

 

$

635 

    

$

1,228 

    

$

1,817 

    

$

2,435 

 

   Written premium adjustment --
      statutory only

         

 

 35 

 

 

(29)

 

 

  (7)

 

 

 10 

 

 

 33 

     

43 

     

 36 

     

 

   Reported written premiums (statutory)*

        

$

693 

 

$

589 

 

$

582 

 

$

603 

 

$

668 

    

$

1,271 

    

$

1,853 

    

$

2,442 

 

   Unearned premiums change

          

(89)

  

 30 

  

 20 

  

  (4)

  

(86)

     

(90)

     

(69)

     

  (40)

 

   Earned premiums

         

$

604 

 

$

619 

 

$

602 

 

$

599 

 

$

582 

    

$

1,181 

    

$

1,784 

    

$

2,402 

 
                                           

Statutory combined ratio

                                          

   Statutory combined ratio

          

86.5 

%

 

92.4 

%

 

94.1 

%

 

89.6 

%

87.5 

%

    

  88.6 

%

    

90.3 

%

    

90.8 

%

   Less catastrophe losses

         

 

1.8 

 

 

1.9 

 

 

2.3 

 

 

5.6 

 

 

5.1 

     

5.3 

     

4.3 

 

    

  3.7 

 

   Statutory combined ratio
      excluding catastrophe losses

         

 

84.7 

%

 

90.5 

%

 

91.8 

%

 

84.0 

%

 

82.4 

%

   

 

  83.3 

%

    

86.0 

%

    

87.1 

%

                         

 

                 

GAAP combined ratio

                        

 

                 

   GAAP combined ratio

          

88.9 

%

 

91.1 

%

 

93.4 

%

 

90.3 

%

 

90.5 

%

 

   

  90.4 

%

    

91.4 

%

    

91.3 

%

 

         

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

    

 

 

   

 

 

 

*Dollar amounts shown are rounded to millions; certain amounts may not add due to rounding. Ratios are calculated based on whole dollar amounts. The sum of quarterly amounts may not equal

the full year as each is computed independently.

*nm – Not meaningful

*Statutory data prepared in accordance with statutory accounting rules ad defined by the National Association of Insurance Commissioners and filed with the appropriate regulatory bodies.



2007 First-Quarter Supplement

 24






Cincinnati Insurance Group

Quarterly Property Casualty Data - Personal Lines

 

(Dollars in millions)

Three months ended

Six months ended

Nine months ended

Twelve months ended

 

12/31/07

9/30/07

6/30/07

3/31/07

12/31/06

9/30/06

6/30/06

3/31/06

6/30/07

6/30/06

9/30/07

9/30/06

12/31/07

12/31/06

Premiums

                                          

   Adjusted written premiums (statutory)

         

 $

153 

 

 $

167 

 

 $

198 

 

 $

211 

 

 $

161

    

 $

372

    

 $

570

    

 $

737 

 

   Written premium adjustment --
      statutory only

         

 

 

 

(1)

 

 

 

 

-

  

-

     

-

     

-

     

(1)

 

   Reported written premiums (statutory)*

        

 $

153 

 

 $

166 

 

 $

198 

 

 $

211 

 

 $

161

    

 $

372

    

 $

570

    

 $

736 

 

   Unearned premiums change

          

 28 

  

17 

  

(9)

  

(17)

  

 35

     

 18

     

 9

     

26 

 

   Earned premiums

         

 $

181 

 

 $

183 

 

 $

189 

 

 $

194 

 

 $

196

    

 $

390

    

 $

579

    

 $

762 

 
                                           

Statutory combined ratio

                                          

   Statutory combined ratio

          

 93.5 

%

 

 107.7 

%

 

 104.0 

%

 

 106.4 

%

 

 98.1

%

    

 101.6

%

    

 102.3

%

    

 103.6 

%

   Less catastrophe losses

         

 

 (4.1)

  

 17.9 

  

7.1 

  

 15.6 

  

5.0

     

 10.3

     

9.2

     

 11.3 

 

   Statutory combined ratio
      excluding catastrophe losses

         

 

 97.6 

%

 

 89.8 

%

 

 96.9 

%

 

 90.8 

%

 

 93.1

%

    

 91.3

%

    

 93.1

%

    

 92.3 

%

                                           

GAAP combined ratio

                                          

   GAAP combined ratio

          

 92.0 

%

 

 106.0 

%

 

 104.4 

%

 

 107.6 

%

 

 96.4

%

    

 102.0

%

    

 102.8

%

    

 103.6 

%

 

                                          

*Dollar amounts shown are rounded to millions; certain amounts may not add due to rounding. Ratios are calculated based on whole dollar amounts. The sum of quarterly amounts may not equal the full

year as each is computed independently.

*nm – Not meaningful

*Statutory data prepared in accordance with statutory accounting rules as defined by the National Association of Insurance Commissioners and filed with the appropriate regulatory bodies.



2007 First-Quarter Supplement

 25





The Cincinnati Life Insurance Company

GAAP Statements of Income

 
 

For the Three Months Ended March 31,

 

 

2007

 

2006

 

Change

% Change

Revenues:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

  Premiums earned:

 

 

    

 

    Property casualty

$

 -    

$

 -    

$

   -    

    Life

 

38,946,474 

 

34,874,544 

 

    4,071,930 

11.68 

    Accident health

 

  1,758,851 

 

  1,733,897 

 

         24,954 

1.44 

    Premiums ceded

 

 (10,286,342)

 

 (10,320,610)

 

         34,268 

(0.33)

      Total premiums earned

 

30,418,983 

 

26,287,831 

 

    4,131,152 

15.72 

  Investment income

 

28,312,584 

 

26,275,186 

 

    2,037,398 

7.75 

  Realized investment gains and losses

 

  8,144,413 

 

42,334,256 

 

(34,189,843)

(80.76)

  Other income

 

  1,365,571 

 

     746,054 

 

       619,517 

83.04 

       Total revenues

$

68,241,551 

$

95,643,327 

$

(27,401,776)

(28.65)

 

 

 

    

 

 

 

 

    

 

Benefits & expenses:

 

 

    

 

  Losses & policy benefits

$

36,890,212 

$

29,334,621 

$

    7,555,591 

25.76 

  Reinsurance recoveries

 

 (9,652,925)

 

     864,998 

 

(10,517,923)

(1,215.95)

  Commissions

 

  8,939,275 

 

  8,406,916 

 

       532,359 

6.33 

  Other operating expenses

 

  7,485,553 

 

  6,142,293 

 

    1,343,260 

21.87 

  Interest expense

 

   - 

 

   - 

 

      - 

  Taxes, licenses & fees

 

     946,862 

 

     830,409 

 

       116,453 

14.02 

  Incr deferred acq expense

 

 (3,936,437)

 

 (4,942,405)

 

    1,005,968 

(20.35)

  Other expenses

 

 64 

 

 64 

 

      - 

0.00 

       Total expenses

$

40,672,604 

$

40,636,896 

$

        35,708 

0.09 

 

 

 

    

 

 

 

 

    

 

       Income before income taxes

$

27,568,947 

$

55,006,431 

$

 (27,437,484)

(49.88)

 

 

 

    

 

Provision for income taxes:

 

 

    

 

  Current

$

 2,700,754 

$

 2,133,775 

$

      566,979 

26.57 

  Current capital gains/losses

 

  2,870,544 

 

14,816,990 

 

(11,946,446)

(80.63)

  Deferred

 

  4,059,429 

 

  2,992,000 

 

    1,067,429 

35.68 

       Total income taxes

$

 9,630,727 

$

19,942,765 

$

(10,312,038)

(51.71)

 

 

 

    

 

       Net income

$

17,938,220 

$

35,063,666 

$

(17,125,446)

(48.84)



2007 First-Quarter Supplement

 26





The Cincinnati Life Insurance Company

Statutory Statements of Income

 
 

For the Three Months Ended March 31,

  

2007

 

2006

% Change

 

 

 

 

 

 

Net premiums written

$

40,441,018 

$

38,308,469 

5.57 

Net investment income

 

28,317,576 

 

26,275,186 

7.77 

Amortization of interest maintenance reserve

 

       18,286 

 

       36,581 

(50.01)

Commissions and expense allowances on reinsurance ceded

 

  1,962,088 

 

  2,006,600 

(2.22)

Income from fees associated with Separate Accounts

 

  1,365,571 

 

     746,054 

83.04 

Total revenues

$

72,104,539 

$

67,372,890 

7.02 

 

 

 

  

 

Death benefits and matured endowments

 

 7,025,780 

 

10,440,252 

(32.70)

Annuity benefits

 

  8,446,244 

 

  7,835,974 

7.79 

Disability benefits and benefits under accident and health contracts

 

     392,588 

 

     124,030 

216.53 

Surrender benefits and group conversions

 

  4,872,348 

 

  7,382,751 

(34.00)

Interest and adjustments on deposit-type contract funds

 

  2,701,644 

 

  2,851,152 

(5.24)

Increase in aggregate reserves for life and accident and health contracts

 

27,127,730 

 

21,550,983 

25.88 

Payments on supplementary contracts with life contingencies

 

       90,522 

 

       75,477 

19.93 

Total benefit expenses

$

50,656,856 

$

50,260,619 

0.79 

 

 

 

  

 

Commissions

$

 8,834,275 

$

 8,307,166 

6.35 

General insurance expenses and taxes

 

  9,826,285 

 

  8,395,309 

17.04 

Increase in loading on deferred and uncollected premiums

 

 (1,378,574)

 

 (1,353,692)

1.84 

Net transfers to or (from) Separate Accounts

 

   - 

 

   - 

Other deductions

 

 64 

 

 64 

0.60 

Total operating expenses

$

17,282,050 

$

15,348,846 

12.60 

      

Federal and Foreign Income Taxes Incurred

 

  2,611,204 

 

  1,889,192 

38.22 

      

Net gain from operations before realized capital gains or (losses)

$

 1,554,429 

$

   (125,768)

(1,335.95)

      

Net realized gains or (losses) net of capital gains tax

 

  5,811,552 

 

27,697,576 

(79.02)

     

 

Net Income (Statutory)

$

 7,365,981 

$

27,571,808 

(73.28)

      

* Statutory data prepared in accordance with statutory accounting rules as defined by the National Association of Insurance Commissioners and filed

with the appropriate regulatory bodies.



2007 First-Quarter Supplement

 27






The Cincinnati Life Insurance Company

Expenses as a Percentage of Premium

 

(Dollars in millions)

Three months ended

Six months ended

Nine months ended

Twelve months ended

 

12/31/07

09/30/07

06/30/07

03/31/07

12/31/06

09/30/06

06/30/06

03/31/06

06/30/07

06/30/06

09/30/07

09/30/06

12/31/07

12/31/06

Gross Written Premiums

         

 $

53

 

 $

54

 

 $

50

 

 $

51 

 

 $

50

    

 $

  101

    

 $

152

    

 $

206

 

Bank Owned Life Insurance (BOLI)
  Adjustment

          

  -

  

 - 

  

 -

  

 - 

  

 -

     

-

     

 -

     

 -

 

Adjusted Gross Written Premiums

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 $

53

 

 $

54 

 

 $

50

 

 $

51 

 

 $

50

    

 $

  101

    

 $

152

    

 $

206

 
                                           

Insurance Expense

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 $

  9

 

 $

10 

 

 $

7

 

 $

 

 $

7

    

 $

    14

    

 $

21

    

 $

31

 
                                           

Expense Ratio

          

17.7

 %

 

17.8 

%

 

14.7

%

 

13.5 

%

 

14.5

%

    

 14.0

%

    

14.0

%

    

15.0

%

Expense Ratio based on Adjusted

   Gross Written Premium

          

17.7

%

 

17.8 

%

 

14.7

%

 

13.5 

%

 

14.5

%

    

 14.0

%

    

14.0

%

    

15.0

%

                                           
                                           
                                           

(Dollars in millions)

Years ended December 31,

                        
 

2006

2005

2004

2003

2002

2001

2000

 

                     

Gross Written Premiums

 $

206

 

 $

249

 

 $

230 

 

 $

173

 

 $

244 

 

 $

122

 

 $

157 

                      

Bank Owned Life Insurance (BOLI)

   Adjustment

 

 -

  

 -

  

(10)

  

  -

  

(34)

  

 -

  

(20)

                      

Adjusted Gross Written Premiums

 $

206

 

 $

249

 

 $

220 

 

 $

173

 

 $

210 

 

 $

122

 

 $

137 

                      
                                           

Insurance Expense

 $

31

 

 $

29

 

 $

25 

 

 $

25

 

 $

27 

 

 $

25

 

 $

20 

                      
                                           

Expense Ratio

 

15.0

%

 

11.7

%

 

11.1 

%

 

14.8

%

 

10.9 

%

 

20.6

%

 

12.9 

%

                     

Expense Ratio based on Adjusted

   Gross Written Premium

 

15.0

%

 

11.7

%

 

11.6 

%

 

14.8

%

 

12.6 

%

 

20.6

%

 

14.8 

%

                    

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

                     

*Dollar amounts shown are rounded to millions; certain amounts may not add due to rounding. Ratios are calculated based on whole dollar amounts. The sum of quarterly amounts may not equal the full year as each is

computed independently.




2007 First-Quarter Supplement

 28