EX-99.1 2 dex991.htm JPMORGAN CHASE & CO. INVESTOR DAY PRESENTATION SLIDES JPMorgan Chase & Co. Investor Day Presentation Slides

Exhibit 99.1

2009 Investor Day Agenda

 

Presentation

 

Speaker

 

Start time

Opening Remarks

  Jamie Dimon   8:30 a.m.

Firm Overview

  Mike Cavanagh   8:45 a.m.

Home Lending

  Charlie Scharf   9:00 a.m.

Commercial Banking

  Todd Maclin   9:45 a.m.
Break     10:15 a.m.

Card Services

  Gordon Smith   10:25 a.m.

Retail Banking

  Charlie Scharf   11:30 a.m.
Lunch     12:00 p.m.

Asset Management

  Jes Staley   1:15 p.m.

Investment Bank

  Steve Black   1:45 p.m.
Break     2:20 p.m.

Derivatives

  Bill Winters   2:35 p.m.

Closing Remarks and Q&A

  Jamie Dimon   4:00 p.m.

 

LOGO   


FEBRUARY 26, 2009

FIRM OVERVIEW

Mike Cavanagh, Chief Financial Officer

 

LOGO   


Overview

FIRM OVERVIEW

 

 

 

 

Financial results

 

   

2008 net income of $6B on managed revenue of $73B

 

   

1Q09 QTD results are solidly profitable; outlook is roughly in line with Analyst expectations

 

 

Excellent franchises with great long-term prospects

 

 

Continuous, consistent investment in growth driving substantial increase in core earnings power

 

 

Fortress balance sheet – strong capital position, credit reserves and liquidity

 

 

Comments on Treasury & Securities Services

 

LOGO    1


Excellent franchises position JPM well for the future

FIRM OVERVIEW

 

 

Investment Bank

 

 

Continue to rank #1 in four capital raising league tables for 20081

 

   

Global Debt, Equity & Equity-related

 

   

Global Equity & Equity-related

 

   

Global Debt

 

   

Global Loan Syndications

 

 

Ranked #1 in Global Fees for 20082 with 8.8% market share

Retail Financial Services

 

 

#3 in deposit market share3

 

 

#3 in Mortgage Originations4

 

 

#3 in Mortgage Servicing4

 

 

#2 in Home Equity Originations5

 

 

#1 in Auto Finance (non-captive)6

Card Services

 

 

#1 U.S. Credit Card Issuer (by outstandings)7

 

 

#2 U.S. Merchant Acquirer (by acquiring volumes)7

 

 

#1 U.S. Visa Issuer (by # of cards)7

 

 

#2 U.S. MasterCard Issuer (by # of cards)7

Commercial Banking

 

 

Top 3 in Large Middle-market, Traditional Middle-market and Asset Based Lending8

 

 

#1 originator of multi-family loans in the U.S.9

 

 

#1 ranking in CB market penetration and lead share in 3 of the top 4 MSAs10

Treasury & Securities Services

 

 

#1 in ACH Originations11

 

 

#1 in US Dollar Treasury Clearing and Commercial Payments12

Asset Management

 

 

Largest manager of AAA-rated global liquidity funds13

 

 

Largest Hedge Fund manager14

Businesses operate stronger together than apart

 

1

Source: Thomson Reuters

2

Source: Dealogic

3

Source: SNL Corporation; market share data as of June 2008, updated for subsequent acquisitions for all banks through January 2009. Includes deposits in domestic offices (50 states and D.C.), Puerto Rico and U.S. Territories only and non-retail branches are not included

4

Source: Inside Mortgage Finance, 4Q08

5

Source: Inside Mortgage Finance, 3Q08

6

Source: Autocount (franchise), December 2008

7

Source: Nilson Reports. Merchant Acquirer data adjusted for dissolution of First Data JV

8

Loan Pricing Corporation, FY08

9

FDIC and OTS as of 9/30/08

10

TNS Market Study, 3Q08 YTD

11

FLmetrix’s

12

AsianInvestor, Global Pensions, Inter-national Custody and Fund Administration, The Asset

13

iMoneyNet, December 2008

14

Absolute Return Magazine, September 2008 issue

 

LOGO    2


Consistently investing in revenue growth

FIRM OVERVIEW

 

 

 

 

Good underlying momentum in core business drivers propelling organic growth across businesses

Growth Drivers ($ in billions)

 

     2004    2005    2006    2007    2008     2004-2008
CAGR
 

Investment Bank

                

IB Fees ($mm)

   $ 3,671    $ 4,096    $ 5,537    $ 6,616    $ 5,907     13 %

Advisory ($mm)

     939      1,263      1,659      2,273      2,008     21 %

Equity and Debt Underwriting ($mm)

     2,732      2,833      3,878      4,343      3,899     9 %

Equity Markets ($mm)

     1,704      1,998      3,458      3,903      3,611     21 %

International Revenue ($mm)

     5,985      6,648      9,232      10,005      9,684     13 %

Retail Financial Services

                

Retail Banking Average Deposits

   $ 171.8    $ 175.3    $ 189.9    $ 206.7    $ 244.6     9 %

# of ATMs

     6,650      7,312      8,506      9,186      14,568     22 %

# of Branches

     2,508      2,641      3,079      3,152      5,474     22 %

# of Branch Bankers & Sales Specialists

     8,388      10,281      11,187      13,755      21,486     27 %

Credit Cards Originated in Branches

     408,794      666,387      1,152,166      1,420,884      1,707,072     43 %

Card Services

                

Average Outstandings

   $ 128.8    $ 136.4    $ 141.1    $ 149.3    $ 162.9     6 %

Charge Volume

   $ 282.7    $ 301.9    $ 339.6    $ 354.6    $ 368.9     7 %

Sales Volume

   $ 218.1    $ 233.7    $ 267.6    $ 292.1    $ 309.7     9 %

# of New accts opened (000’s)

     9,697      11,362      15,870      16,152      14,910 1   11 %

 

Note: 2004 data is presented on an unaudited pro forma combined basis that represents how the financial information of JPMorgan Chase & Co. and Bank One Corporation may have appeared had the two companies been merged for the full year

1

Excludes approximately 13 million credit card accounts acquired in the WaMu transaction

 

LOGO    3


Consistently investing in revenue growth

FIRM OVERVIEW

 

 

Growth Drivers ($ in billions)

 

     2004    2005    2006    2007    2008    2004-2008
CAGR
 

Commercial Banking

                 

IB Revenue, Gross1 ($mm)

     NA    $ 552    $ 716    $ 888    $ 966    21 %

Liability Balances2

   $ 62.6    $ 66.1    $ 73.6    $ 87.7    $ 103.1    13 %

Loans

   $ 46.3    $ 48.1    $ 53.6    $ 61.1    $ 82.3    15 %

Treasury and Securities Services

                 

Liability Balances2

   $ 135.0    $ 154.7    $ 189.5    $ 228.9    $ 279.8    20 %

Assets under Custody ($T)

   $ 9.3    $ 10.7    $ 13.9    $ 15.9    $ 13.2    9 %

Asset Management

                 

Assets under Management

   $ 791    $ 847    $ 1,013    $ 1,193    $ 1,133    9 %

Loans3

   $ 25.1    $ 26.6    $ 26.5    $ 29.5    $ 38.1    11 %

Deposits

   $ 38.6    $ 42.1    $ 50.6    $ 58.9    $ 70.2    16 %

 

Note: 2004 data is presented on an unaudited pro forma combined basis that represents how the financial information of JPMorgan Chase & Co. and Bank One Corporation may have appeared had the two companies been merged for the full year

1

Represents total revenue related to investment banking products sold to Commercial Banking clients. CAGR is calculated for the period 2005-2008

2

Includes deposits and deposits swept to on-balance sheet liabilities

3

Reflects the transfer in 2007 of held-for-investment prime mortgage loans from AM to Corporate within the Corporate/Private Equity segment

 

LOGO    4


Substantial earnings power continues to grow

FIRM OVERVIEW

 

 

Pretax preprovision profit ($ in billions)

LOGO

 

 

Solid earnings power helps counter impact of current economic environment

 

 

Organic earnings growth trajectory will continue; reap benefits when credit costs abate

 

LOGO    5


Substantially increased loan loss reserves, maintaining strong coverage ratios

FIRM OVERVIEW

 

 

Loan Loss Reserves to Total Loans1,2 ($ in millions)

LOGO

 

1

Excluding held-for-sale and loans at fair value

2

Excludes the impact of purchased credit impaired loans accounted for under SOP 03-3 that were acquired as part of the Washington Mutual transaction. These loans were accounted for at fair value on the acquisition date, which reflected expected cash flows (including credit losses), over the remaining life of the portfolio. Accordingly no charge-offs and no allowance for loan losses has been recorded for these loans. If these loans were included, the loan loss reserve ratio at 4Q08 and 3Q08 would have been 3.18% and 2.56%, respectively

Loan Loss Reserves to NPLs3,4 ($ in millions)

LOGO

 

3

Excluding held-for-sale and loans at fair value

4

Excludes purchased credit impaired loans accounted for under SOP 03-03 that were acquired as part of the Washington Mutual transaction

 

LOGO    6


Naturally strong liquidity position across our businesses

FIRM OVERVIEW

 

 

 

 

Total deposits of $1.0T across retail and wholesale businesses

4Q08 Customer deposits versus loans ($ in billions)

LOGO

Note: Line of business data reflects average balances. Firm data is end-of-period. The Firm total includes the remaining lines of businesses (IB and Card)

 

LOGO    7


Fortress capital position

FIRM OVERVIEW

 

 

($ in billions)

 

     2006     2007     2008  

Tier 1 Capital1

   $ 81     $ 89     $ 136  

Tangible Common Equity2

   $ 63     $ 72     $ 81  

Tier 1 Capital Ratio1

     8.7 %     8.4 %     10.9 %

Tangible Common Equity/RWA2

     6.8 %     6.8 %     6.5 %

Tangible Common Equity/Tangible Assets2

     4.9 %     4.8 %     3.8 %

Potential Stress Environment Impact

 

Extraordinary times call for extraordinary measures. We must necessarily be prepared to handle a highly stressed environment (although we are not predicting this)     

•   Assumes unemployment reaching 10%+ in 2009/2010 and HPI decline of 40% peak-to-trough

 

•   Capital levels maintained while credit reserves further strengthened

 

1

Estimated for 2008

2

See note 1 on slide 18

 

LOGO    8


Treasury & Securities Services

FIRM OVERVIEW

 

 

($ in millions)

 

     2007     2008     O/(U)  

Revenue

   $ 6,945     $ 8,134     17 %

Treasury Services

     3,013       3,555     18 %

Worldwide Securities Svcs

     3,932       4,579     16 %

Expense

     4,580       5,223     14 %

Net Income

   $ 1,397     $ 1,767     26 %

Key Statistics

      

Avg Liability Balances ($B)1

   $ 228.9     $ 279.8     22 %

Assets under Custody ($T)

   $ 15.9     $ 13.2     (17 )%

Pretax Margin

     32 %     33 %  

ROE2

     47 %     47 %  

TSS Firmwide Revenue

   $ 9,565     $ 11,081     16 %

TS Firmwide Revenue

   $ 5,633     $ 6,502     15 %

TSS Firmwide Avg Liab Bal ($B)1

   $ 316.7     $ 382.9     21 %

EOP Equity ($B)

   $ 3.0     $ 4.5    

Leadership Positions

 

 

#1 in ACH Originations3

 

 

#1 in US Dollar Treasury Clearing and Commercial Payments4

 

 

Named top Global Custodian5

 

 

Received more than 110 best in class recognitions6

 

 

Named European Cash Management Provider of the Year7

 

 

Best Cash Management Specialist8

 

1

Includes deposits and deposits swept to on-balance sheet liabilities

2

Calculated based on average equity. Average equity was $3.8B and $3.0B for 2008 and 2007, respectively

3

Ernst & Young

4

FLmetrix’s

5

AsianInvestor, Global Pensions, International Custody and Fund Administration, The Asset

6

Global Custodian

7

International Custody, Fund Administration

8

The Asset

 

LOGO    9


Strengths of Treasury & Securities Services

FIRM OVERVIEW

 

 

 

 

World class market leading franchise

 

 

Record 2008 net income of $1.8B has more than doubled since 2005

 

 

Truly global business

 

   

Approximately 50% of revenue is related to international businesses

 

 

High return, low capital intensity, scale advantages

 

 

Stable, annuity-like revenue stream - consistent growth in liability balances strongly linked to core cash and custody operating services

 

 

Significant client and platform leverage across the entire firm (IB, RFS, Card, CB AM, Corporate)

 

LOGO    10


APPENDIX

FIRM OVERVIEW

 

 

 

LOGO    11


Investment Bank

FIRM OVERVIEW

 

 

($ in millions)

 

     2007     2008     O/(U)  

Revenue

   $ 18,170     $ 12,214     (33 )%

Investment Banking Fees

     6,616       5,907     (11 )%

Fixed Income Markets

     6,339       1,957     (69 )%

Equity Markets

     3,903       3,611     (7 )%

Credit Portfolio

     1,312       739     (44 )%

Credit Costs

     654       2,015     208 %

Expense

     13,074       13,844     6 %

Net Income

   $ 3,139     $ (1,175 )   NM  

Key Statistics

      

Overhead Ratio

     72 %     113 %  

Comp/Revenue

     44 %     63 %  

ALL / Total Loans

     2.14 %     4.71 %  

NPLs ($mm)

   $ 353     $ 1,175     233 %

ROE1

     15 %     (5 )%  

VAR ($mm)2

   $ 106     $ 202    

EOP Equity ($B)

   $ 21.0     $ 33.0    

Leadership Positions

 

 

IFR Bank of the Year

 

 

Risk Bank Risk Manager of the Year

 

 

Continue to rank #1 in four capital raising league tables for 20083

 

   

Global Debt, Equity & Equity-related

 

   

Global Equity & Equity-related

 

   

Global Debt

 

   

Global Loan Syndications

 

 

Ranked #1 in Global Fees for 20084 with 8.8% market share

 

1

Calculated based on average equity. Average equity was $26.1B and $21.0B for 2008 and 2007, respectively

2

Average Trading and Credit Portfolio VAR

3

Source: Thomson Reuters

4

Source: Dealogic

 

LOGO    12


Retail Financial Services — Drivers

FIRM OVERVIEW

 

 

($ in millions)

 

     2007     2008     O/(U)  

Retail Financial Services

      

Net Income

   $ 2,925     $ 880     (70 )%

ROE1

     18 %     5 %  

EOP Equity ($B)

   $ 16     $ 25    

Retail Banking

      

Net Interest Income

   $ 6,193     $ 7,659     24 %

Noninterest Revenue

   $ 3,763     $ 4,951     32 %
                  

Total Revenue

   $ 9,956     $ 12,610     27 %

Credit Costs

   $ 79     $ 449     468 %

Expense

   $ 6,166     $ 7,232     17 %

Net Income

   $ 2,245     $ 2,982     33 %

Consumer Lending

      

Net Interest Income

   $ 4,333     $ 6,506     50 %

Noninterest Revenue

   $ 3,016     $ 4,404     46 %
                  

Total Revenue

   $ 7,349     $ 10,910     48 %

Credit Costs

   $ 2,531     $ 9,456     274 %

Expense

   $ 3,739     $ 4,845     30 %

Net Income

   $ 680     $ (2,102 )   NM  

Leadership Positions

 

 

#3 in deposit market share2

 

 

#3 in branch network3

 

 

#2 in ATMs3

 

 

#1 in Auto Finance (non-captive)4

 

 

#2 in Home Equity Originations5

 

 

#3 in Mortgage Servicing6

 

 

#3 in Mortgage Originations6

 

 

12.0% market share in Mortgage Originations6

 

1

Calculated based on average equity. Average equity was $19.0B and $16.0B for 2008 and 2007, respectively

2

Source: SNL Corporation; market share data as of June 2008, updated for subsequent acquisitions for all banks through January 2009. Includes deposits in domestic offices (50 states and D.C.), Puerto Rico and U.S. Territories only and non-retail branches are not included

3

Source: 4Q08 company reports

4

Source: Autocount (franchise), December 2008

5

Source: Inside Mortgage Finance, 3Q08

6

Source: Inside Mortgage Finance, 4Q08

 

LOGO    13


Card Services (Managed)

FIRM OVERVIEW

 

 

($ in millions)

 

     2007     2008     O/(U)  

Revenue

   $ 15,235     $ 16,474     8 %

Credit Costs

   $ 5,711     $ 10,059     76 %

Expense

   $ 4,914     $ 5,140     5 %

Net Income

   $ 2,919     $ 780     (73 )%

Key Statistics Incl. WaMu ($B)

      

ROO (pretax)

     3.09 %     0.78 %  

ROE1

     21 %     5 %  

EOP Equity

   $ 14.1     $ 15.0    

Key Statistics Excl. WaMu ($B)

      

Avg Outstandings

   $ 149.3     $ 155.9     4 %

EOP Outstandings

   $ 157.1     $ 162.1     3 %

Charge Volume

   $ 354.6     $ 361.1     2 %

Net Accts Opened (mm)

   $ 16.4     $ 14.4     (12 )%

Managed Margin

     8.16 %     8.16 %  

Net Charge-Off Rate

     3.68 %     4.92 %  

30+Day Delinquency Rate

     3.48 %     4.36 %  

Industry Outstandings2 — 12/31/08

LOGO

 

Note: Financial results are presented on a managed basis

1

Calculated based on average equity. Average equity was $14.3B and $14.1B for 2008 and 2007, respectively

2

Domestic GPCC O/S, Source: 4Q08 Company reports. Bank of America data for U.S. consumer and small business card has been estimated since that disclosure was discontinued starting Q3’08; Citi GPCC data has been estimated as it no longer breaks out GPCC receivables; Cap One new US Card segment data includes US Consumer Credit Card, Small Business Card and Installment loans

3

Chase market share data includes WaMu receivables

 

LOGO    14


Commercial Banking

FIRM OVERVIEW

 

 

($ in millions)

 

     2007     2008     O/(U)  

Revenue

   $ 4,103     $ 4,777     16 %

Middle Market Banking

     2,689       2,939     9 %

Commercial Term Lending

     —         243     NM  

Mid-Corporate Banking

     815       921     13 %

Real Estate Banking

     421       413     (2 )%

Other

     178       261     47 %

Credit Costs

     279       464     66 %

Expense

     1,958       1,946     (1 )%

Net Income

   $ 1,134     $ 1,439     27 %

Key Statistics

      

Avg Loans & Leases ($B)

   $ 61.1     $ 82.3     35 %

Avg Liability Balances ($B)1

   $ 87.7     $ 103.1     18 %

Overhead Ratio

     48 %     41 %  

Net Charge-Off Rate

     0.07 %     0.35 %  

ALL / Average Loans

     2.81 %     3.04 %  

NPLs ($mm)

   $ 146     $ 1,026     NM  

ROE2

     17 %     20 %  

EOP Equity ($B)

   $ 6.7     $ 8.0    

Leadership Positions

 

 

Top 3 in Large Middle-market, Traditional Middle-market and Asset Based Lending3

 

 

#1 originator of multi-family loans in the U.S.4

 

 

#1 ranking in CB market penetration and lead share in 3 of the top 4 MSAs5

 

1

Includes deposits and deposits swept to on-balance sheet liabilities

2

Calculated based on average equity. Average equity was $7.3B and $6.5B for 2008 and 2007, respectively

3

Loan Pricing Corporation, FY08

4

FDIC and OTS as of 9/30/08

5

TNS Market Study, 3Q08 YTD

 

LOGO    15


Asset Management

FIRM OVERVIEW

 

 

($ in millions)

 

     2007     2008     O/(U)  

Revenue

   $ 8,635     $ 7,584     (12 )%

Private Bank

     2,362       2,565     9 %

Institutional

     2,525       1,775     (30 )%

Retail

     2,408       1,620     (33 )%

Private Wealth Management

     1,340       1,387     4 %

Bear Stearns Brokerage

     —         237     NM  

Credit Costs

     (18 )     85     NM  

Expense

     5,515       5,298     (4 )%

Net Income

   $ 1,966     $ 1,357     (31 )%

Key Statistics ($B)

      

Assets under Management1

   $ 1,193     $ 1,133     (5 )%

Assets under Supervision1

   $ 1,572     $ 1,496     (5 )%

Average Loans2

   $ 29.5     $ 38.1     29 %

Average Deposits

   $ 58.9     $ 70.2     19 %

Pretax Margin

     36 %     29 %  

ROE3

     51 %     24 %  

EOP Equity

   $ 4.0     $ 7.0    

Leadership Positions

 

 

Largest manager of AAA-rated global liquidity funds4

 

 

Largest Hedge Fund manager5

 

 

% of AUM in 1st and 2nd Quartiles6

 

   

1 year = 54%

 

   

3 year = 65%

 

   

5 year = 76%

 

 

42% of customer assets in 4 & 5 star funds in 20087

 

1

Reflects $15B for assets under management and $68B for assets under supervision from the Bear Stearns merger on May 30, 2008

2

Reflects the transfer commencing in 1Q07 of held-for-investment prime mortgage loans from AM to Corporate within the Corporate/Private Equity segment

3

Calculated based on average equity. Average equity was $5.6B and $3.9B for 2008 and 2007, respectively

4

iMoneyNet, December 2008

5

Absolute Return Magazine, September 2008 issue

6

Quartile rankings sourced from Lipper for the U.S. & Taiwan; Micropal for the UK, Luxembourg, & Hong Kong; & Nomura for Japan

7

Derived from Morningstar for the U.S.; Micropal for the UK, Luxembourg, Hong Kong, & Taiwan; & Nomura for Japan

 

LOGO    16


Corporate/Private Equity

FIRM OVERVIEW

 

 

Corporate/Private Equity Net Income ($ millions)

 

     2007     2008     O/(U)  

Private Equity

   $ 2,165     $ (690 )   NM  

Corporate

     (150 )     1,458     NM  

Merger-related items

     (130 )     (211 )   NM  

Net Income

   $ 1,885     $ 557     (70 )%

Private Equity Portfolio ($ in billions)

LOGO

 

LOGO    17


Notes on non-GAAP financial measures

FIRM OVERVIEW

 

 

This presentation includes non-GAAP financial measures

 

1. Tangible Common Equity (“TCE”) as shown on slide 8, is defined as common stockholders’ equity less identifiable intangible assets (other than MSRs) and goodwill. The TCE measures used in this presentation are not necessarily comparable to similarly titled measures provided by other firms due to differences in calculation methodologies.

 

2. Financial results are presented on a managed basis, as such basis is described in the firm’s Quarterly Report on Form 10-Q for the quarter ended September 30, 2008 and in the Annual Report on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2007.

 

3. All non-GAAP financial measures included in this presentation are provided to assist readers in understanding certain trend information. Additional information concerning such non-GAAP financial measures can be found in the above-referenced filings, to which reference is hereby made.

 

LOGO    18


FEBRUARY 26, 2009

HOME LENDING

Charlie Scharf, Retail Financial Services Chief Executive Officer

 

LOGO   


Agenda

HOME LENDING

 

 

 

     Page

Home Lending

   1

Home Equity

   9

Prime Mortgage

   25

Subprime Mortgage

   33

Other Items

   36

 

LOGO    1


Home lending portfolio

HOME LENDING

 

 

Outstandings as of 12/31/08 ($ in billions)

 

Portfolio

   Total Loans    Chase    +    WaMu: Non-Credit-
Impaired
   =    Total: Non-Credit-
Impaired
   WaMu: Credit-
Impaired

Home Equity

   $ 154.1    $ 94.0       $ 20.3       $ 114.3    $ 39.8

Option ARM

     50.6      —           9.0         9.0      41.6

Prime Mortgage

     97.3      47.4         24.9         72.3      25.0

Subprime Mortgage

     25.6      12.7         2.6         15.3      10.3
                                        

Total Portfolio

   $ 327.6    $ 154.1       $ 56.8       $ 210.9    $ 116.7

 

 

Total outstandings ~$328B

 

   

Non-Credit-Impaired ~$211B (64%)

 

   

Credit-Impaired ~$117B (36%)

Notes: Credit impaired represents UPB not book value; excludes prime mortgage loans classified as held-for-sale

 

LOGO    2


Home lending portfolio

HOME LENDING

 

 

Outstandings as of 12/31/08 ($ in billions)

 

Portfolio

   Total Loans     Chase     +    WaMu: Non-Credit-
Impaired
    =    Total: Non-Credit-
Impaired
    WaMu: Credit-
Impaired
 

Total Portfolio

   $ 327.6     $ 154.1        $ 56.8        $ 210.9     $ 116.7  

Loan Loss Reserve

   $ 7.5     $ 6.6        $ 0.9        $ 7.5       NA  

Fair Value Mark Remaining

   $ 27.9       NA          NA          NA     $ 27.9  

LLR as % of Loans

     2.3 %     4.3 %        1.6 %        3.6 %     NA  

Fair Value Mark % of Loans

     NA       NA          NA          NA       24 %

 

 

LLR against Non-Credit-Impaired

 

 

Fair Value Mark against Credit-Impaired - $88.8B net book value

Notes: Mark remaining as of Dec-08

 

LOGO    3


WaMu home lending portfolio — overview

HOME LENDING

 

 

Outstandings as of 12/31/08 ($ in billions)

LOGO

 

 

67% of WaMu portfolio Credit-Impaired

 

 

Fair Value Mark 24% of Credit-Impaired Balances

 

1

Percent markdown of credit impaired UPB at 12/31/08, Outstandings represent UPB not Book Value

 

LOGO    4


WaMu home lending portfolio — key characteristics

HOME LENDING

 

 

Key Credit Statistics

LOGO

 

 

Credit-Impaired includes majority of high risk assets

 

 

Non-Credit-Impaired has very low delinquency and no losses in 4Q08

 

LOGO    5


WaMu home lending portfolio — loss sensitivities

HOME LENDING

 

 

Loss Sensitivities

 

Peak to Trough HPI1

     (31 )%     (36 )%     (41 )%

Remaining Lifetime Losses2 From Sept 25, 2008

   $ 30-36B     $ 32-38B     $ 34-40B  

% Losses from Credit Impaired

     94 %     93 %     92 %

 

 

The initial mark reflects $32.5B2 of remaining life losses beyond September 25, 2008

 

 

We have not yet experienced losses beyond initial expectations

 

 

Additions to loan loss reserves would be required if and when delinquency and loss experience exceeds our initial expectations

 

1

Home Price Index, Moody’s/Economy.com Case-Shiller and JPMC Estimates

2

For the entire WaMu portfolio (both credit impaired and non-credit impaired)

 

LOGO    6


NonCredit impaired portfolio performance

HOME LENDING

 

 

Key Credit Statistics

LOGO

 

1

Loans held-for-sale and loans accounted for at fair value under SFAS 159 were excluded when calculating the net charge-off rates

 

LOGO    7


Agenda

HOME LENDING

 

 

 

     Page

Home Lending

   1

Home Equity

   9

•   Heritage Chase only

  

Prime Mortgage

   25

Subprime Mortgage

   33

Other Items

   36

In the following pages, primarily Heritage Chase statistics are shown to provide a clear picture of portfolio performance

 

LOGO    8


Home equity performance

HOME EQUITY

 

 

30+ Delinquency Rate

LOGO

 

 

Delinquencies continue to grow

 

 

Very low WaMu Non-Credit-Impaired delinquency - reduces overall rate

 

LOGO    9


Home equity performance

HOME EQUITY

 

 

NCO $ Rate (annualized)

LOGO

 

 

Losses continue to grow

 

 

No WaMu Non-Credit-Impaired losses through 4Q08 – reduces overall rate

 

LOGO    10


Home equity losses — deposit customers by current CLTV

HOME EQUITY

 

 

2008 NCL Rate (annualized)

LOGO

 

 

Deposit customers have significantly lower loss rates across all CLTV segments

Note: As ECLTV not available on charge off accounts, used ECLTV at Dec-07 to bucket charge off accounts

 

LOGO    11


Home equity portfolio by CLTV & FICO at origination

HOME EQUITY

 

 

Outstanding as of 12/31/08 ($ in billions)

LOGO

 

 

15% of portfolio originated at 90-100 CLTV

 

 

Majority of originations low LTV, high FICO

 

LOGO    12


Home equity performance by original CLTV

HOME EQUITY

 

 

2008 Losses (Rates Annualized) – ($ in billions)

LOGO

 

 

90-100% CLTV generating 55% of losses

 

 

Losses growing across all original CLTV bands

 

 

High losses even in lower original CLTV segments

 

LOGO    13


Home equity portfolio estimated CLTV >100%

HOME EQUITY

 

 

LOGO

Note: Current CLTV defined as total line balance as a % of current home value estimated by applying Economy.com MSA level HPA estimates as of 12/31/08

Prime Home Equity Only

 

LOGO    14


Home equity losses by current CLTV

HOME EQUITY

 

 

LOGO

 

 

Highest loss rates for 100%+ Current CLTV

 

 

Losses in lower Current CLTV bands growing as unemployment rises

 

LOGO    15


Home equity losses by current CLTV

HOME EQUITY

 

 

4Q08 Loss Rates (annualized)

LOGO

 

 

Losses highest in states with most severe declines in house prices

Note: Current CLTV defined as total line balance as a % of current home value estimated by applying Economy.com MSA level HPA estimates as of 12/31/08

Loss rates are annualized

 

LOGO    16


Home equity losses by current CLTV

HOME EQUITY

 

 

NCO ($ in millions)

LOGO

 

 

Majority of losses from 100%+ Current CLTV

 

LOGO    17


Home equity loss rates following migration to >100% CLTV

HOME EQUITY

 

 

Annualized Loss Rates

LOGO

 

 

Relatively consistent credit deterioration in the older vintages

 

 

Newer vintages could perform better

 

LOGO    18


Home equity balances migrating to >100% CLTV

HOME EQUITY

 

 

($ in billions)

LOGO

 

 

27% of the portfolio >100% CLTV as of end of 2008

 

 

Based on HPI Peak to Trough range of 31-41%

 

   

35-39% of the portfolio estimated to be >100% CLTV at the end of 2009

 

   

36-41% of the portfolio estimated to be >100% CLTV at the end of 2010

Note: Home Price Index, Moody’s/Economy.com Case-Shiller Forecast and JPM Estimates

 

LOGO    19


Home equity losses when exceed >100% CLTV

HOME EQUITY

 

 

($ in millions)

LOGO

 

 

Pre-2007 and 1st Half 2007 appear to have peaked

 

 

2nd Half 2007 and 2008 will grow

 

LOGO    20


Home equity unemployment effect

HOME EQUITY

 

 

 

Current CLTV

   Change in
Unemployment
   Change in
Delinquency
    Delinquency
Increase per
1pt Increase in
Unemployment
    Loss
Effect

<80%

   1.2pts    20 %   17 %   $ 40mm

80-100%

   1.0pts    47 %   47 %   $ 150mm

>100%

   3.3pts    36 %   11 %     —  

 

 

Unemployment appears to be driving losses below 100% CLTV

 

 

Does not appear to be meaningful over 100% CLTV as HPA is the primary driver

Note: The time period for the changes reflected above are Jan-08 to Dec-08

 

LOGO    21


Prime home equity

HOME EQUITY

 

 

Originations Profile

LOGO

 

 

Significant reduction in risk

 

   

Minimal volume in FICO under 700

 

   

No loans > 85% CLTV and only 1% over 80%. 73% are <=70%

 

   

Full Documentation

Note: CLTV = Combined-Loan-to-Value. This metric represents how much equity the borrower has in the property

CLTV and FICO at origination

Construction and Private Banking loans are included in Full Documentation

Does not include Bulk Loan Purchases

 

LOGO    22


Home equity portfolio outlook

HOME EQUITY

 

 

 

 

Fewer balances will migrate to >100% CLTV going forward

 

 

Losses are expected to grow for loans that recently migrated to >100% CLTV

 

 

It is unclear if loss rates for loans that recently migrated to >100% CLTV will grow as high as older vintages

 

 

Unemployment likely to impact <100 CLTV, but it will be less meaningful than HPA changes

 

 

Quarterly losses expected to be $1B to $1.4B for Non-Credit-Impaired in 2009

 

 

Losses are expected to level off, but remain high in 2010 if current loss rate trends continue

 

LOGO    23


Agenda

HOME LENDING

 

     Page
Home Lending    1
Home Equity    9
Prime Mortgage    25

•   Heritage Chase only

  
Subprime Mortgage    33
Other Items    36

In the following pages, primarily Heritage Chase statistics are shown to provide a clear picture of portfolio performance

 

LOGO    24


2008 prime mortgage performance

PRIME MORTGAGE

 

 

30+ Delinquency Rate

LOGO

 

 

Delinquencies continue to grow

 

 

Very low WaMu Non-Credit-Impaired delinquency - reduces overall rate

 

LOGO    25


2008 prime mortgage performance

PRIME MORTGAGE

 

 

NCO $ Rate (Annualized)

LOGO

 

 

Losses continue to grow

 

 

No WaMu Non-Credit-Impaired losses to date – reduces overall rate

 

 

Quarterly losses could be as high as $375-$475mm over next several quarters

 

LOGO    26


Prime mortgage losses by vintage

PRIME MORTGAGE

 

 

Vintage Breakdown as of 4Q08

LOGO

 

 

2006 and 2007 vintages generate 88% of losses

 

1

Loss rates are annualized

Note: Does not include $25mm in losses that are GL adjustments and cannot be attributed to a vintage

 

LOGO    27


Prime mortgage losses by geography

PRIME MORTGAGE

 

 

Geographic Breakdown as of 4Q08

LOGO

 

 

California and Florida generate 78% of losses

 

1

Loss rates are annualized

Note: Does not include $25mm in losses that are GL adjustments and cannot be attributed to a state

 

LOGO    28


Prime mortgage losses by channel

PRIME MORTGAGE

 

 

Channel Breakdown as of 4Q08

LOGO

 

 

Wholesale channel generates 78% of losses; exited the entire channel

 

1

Loss rates annualized

Note: Does not include $25mm in losses that are GL adjustments and cannot be attributed to a channel

 

LOGO    29


Prime mortgage losses — deposit customers by geography

PRIME MORTGAGE

 

 

2008 NCO Rate (Annualized)

LOGO

 

 

Deposit customers perform better across all geographies

 

LOGO    30


Prime mortgage nonagency jumbo

PRIME MORTGAGE

 

 

Originations Profile

LOGO

 

 

Migration to higher FICO, Full Documentation and lower LTV / CLTV Loans

Note:

CLTV = Combined-Loan-to-Value. This metric represents how much equity the borrower has in the property

CLTV and FICO at origination

Construction and Private Banking loans are included in Full Doc

Does not include Bulk Loan Purchases

 

LOGO    31


Agenda

HOME LENDING

 

 

 

     Page

Home Lending

   1

Home Equity

   9

Prime Mortgage

   25

Subprime Mortgage

   33

•   Heritage Chase only

  

Other Items

   36

In the following pages, primarily Heritage Chase statistics are shown to provide a clear picture of portfolio performance

 

LOGO    32


2008 subprime performance

SUBPRIME MORTGAGE

 

 

30+ Delinquency Rate

LOGO

 

 

Delinquencies continue to grow

 

 

Very low WaMu Non-Credit-Impaired delinquency - reduces overall rate

 

LOGO    33


2008 subprime performance

SUBPRIME MORTGAGE

 

 

NCO $ Rate (Annualized)

LOGO

 

 

Losses continue to grow

 

 

No WaMu Non-Credit-Impaired losses to date - reduces overall rate

 

 

Quarterly losses could be as high as $375-$475mm over next several quarters

 

LOGO    34


Agenda

HOME LENDING

 

 

 

     Page

Home Lending

   1

Home Equity

   9

Prime Mortgage

   25

Subprime Mortgage

   33

Other Items

   36

 

LOGO    35


Chase owned REO sales — California vs Florida

OTHER ITEMS

 

 

California

LOGO

Florida

LOGO

 

 

Early signs of stabilization in CA

 

   

Smaller discounts

 

   

Faster sales

 

   

Severities stabilizing

 

 

No positive trend in FL

 

LOGO    36


Loan modification re-performance

OTHER ITEMS

 

 

90+ Delinquency Performance after 6 Months (Chase+WaMu)

 

     1Q08   2Q08
     Imminent Default
With Income

Verification
  Loss Mitigation
With Income
Verification
  Loss Mitigation
Without Income
Verification
  Imminent Default
With Income
Verification
  Loss Mitigation
With Income
Verification
  Loss Mitigation
Without Income
Verification

Owned

   1.6%   15.9%   25.7%   4.0%   15.7%   26.4%

Serviced

   4.6%   11.5%   24.7%   4.4%   11.0%   26.1%

Total

   4.3%   13.1%   24.9%   4.3%   12.4%   26.2%

Note: Numerator: 90+, REO and charged off accounts by month after modification (excludes pay off)

Denominator: All completed modifications during observation month. Includes all loans where loss mit activities have been completed, except for loans that were not brought current in the 3 months following mod completion due to op issues/timing

 

LOGO    37


Home Lending Point of View

OTHER ITEMS

 

 

 

 

Mortgage banking has been and will always be a complex management challenge.

 

 

Losses will continue to grow as newer vintages mature

 

 

But…

 

   

Very important relationship product

 

   

We have scale in bank branches to distribute — primary focus

 

   

Correspondent will add to scale — focus only on retail originations

 

 

Properly done - expect reasonable Returns

 

LOGO    38


FEBRUARY 26, 2009

COMMERCIAL BANKING

Todd Maclin, Commercial Banking Chief Executive Officer

 

LOGO   


Strategy: lower credit risk/high portfolio diversity

COMMERCIAL BANKING

 

 

Highlights

 

 

Geographic and industry diversity- Middle Market & Mid-Corporate (68% of CB portfolio)

 

 

Limited exposure to leveraged acquisition finance and highly leveraged companies (2% of CB portfolio)

 

 

Pre-WaMu, Real Estate represented only 12% of CB exposure

 

   

Increased to 31% with WaMu, a highly granular, term loan portfolio

Exposure by Industry (12/31/08)

LOGO

Exposure by Business (12/31/08)

LOGO

Middle Market Exposure by Geography (12/31/08)

LOGO

 

LOGO    1


Strategy: portfolio granularity

COMMERCIAL BANKING

 

 

Highlights

 

 

Middle Market loans average $1.8mm (36% of CB portfolio)

 

 

WaMu Commercial Term Lending loans average $1.1mm (31% of CB portfolio)

 

 

81% of all CB loans are < $20mm

 

 

Of the $85B unused or unfunded commitments:

 

   

25% are backup lines of credit or unused availability for investment grade muni-bond issuance

 

   

40% are subject to borrowing base or other pre-advance funding conditions

Maturity (12/31/08)

LOGO

Outstandings by Loan Size (12/31/08)

LOGO

 

LOGO    2


Chase CB performance against peers on key credit metrics

COMMERCIAL BANKING

 

 

Commercial NPL Ratio

LOGO

Allowance for Loan Losses to Loans Ratio

LOGO

Commercial NCO Ratio

LOGO

LOGO

 

1 Peer median for NPL and NCO ratios reflect commercial equivalent metrics for key competitors (BAC, CMA, FITB, KEY, PNC, STI, USB, WFC, ZION); allowance to loans ratio reflects firmwide metric when the commercial-equivalent metric is not available

 

LOGO    3


Construction and development lending is driving the problem commercial credit agenda for banks

COMMERCIAL BANKING

 

 

4Q08 NPL Ratio by Business

LOGO

4Q08 NCO Ratio by Business

LOGO

 

LOGO    4


Chase CB real estate exposure

COMMERCIAL BANKING

 

 

LOGO

 

 

Underwriting has been adjusted for market realities

 

   

Curtailed lending early in 2008 and increased equity requirements and cap rates

 

   

Current focus is on refinancing with pay-downs /workout of existing projects

 

   

We expect this segment to get much worse based on leasing trends, with retail being the most troubled segment

 

LOGO    5


Chase CB real estate exposure

COMMERCIAL BANKING

 

 

LOGO

 

LOGO    6


A word on WaMu . . . our Commercial Term Lending business operating model

COMMERCIAL BANKING

 

 

Overview

 

 

Borrowers: Small balance, value shoppers, seeking moderate leverage at a fair price

 

 

Markets: Stable demand and natural supply constraints (zoning, etc.)

 

 

Properties: Apartment units moderately priced and less volatile; the average age of the property is 53 years with a well-established rent roll

 

 

Tenants: Renters by necessity – moderately priced housing in a good neighborhood

Competitive Offering

 

 

Standardized Underwriting: Exclusive in-house appraisers, regimented property evaluations, and cash flow verification

 

 

Differentiators: No legal or appraisal fees – scale allows for efficiencies

 

 

Competitive Advantages: Competitive pricing and a fast and simple process

 

 

Focus: Stabilized cash flows and lower leverage

 

 

One Identified Weakness: Some limited portfolio issues in Florida and the Northeast when we deviated from this model several years ago – issue addressed prior to acquisition

 

LOGO    7


A word on WaMu . . . changes made and future opportunities

COMMERCIAL BANKING

 

 

Actions We’ve Taken in the WaMu Portfolio

 

 

Added more than $700mm of reserves to the WaMu portfolio since acquisition

Reserves to total loans ratio up from 0.5% before closing to 2.1%

 

 

Modified WaMu’s underwriting standards to conform with Chase’s existing standards and risk appetite

 

 

Reduced production growth targets to reduce portfolio concentration

 

 

Right-sized the organization to reflect the current underwriting and economic realities

 

 

Consolidated construction and development lending into Chase’s existing platform

Middle Market Expansion Effort

 

 

Build out a Middle Market business in the expanded WaMu branch network

 

 

7 key markets: Los Angeles, Orange County, San Francisco, Seattle, Portland, Atlanta, and Florida

 

 

Continue to focus on prudent client selection and full product client relationships

 

 

Strong Chase brand and product capabilities – entering new markets as customers are examining their banking relationships

 

 

Create a strong business for the long haul

 

LOGO    8


Other problem areas for commercial banks

CB has less exposure than most peers

COMMERCIAL BANKING

 

 

Leveraged Finance

 

 

Leveraged finance exposures $4.3B

 

   

2% of portfolio; loans $2.7B

 

 

Exposure down 9% YoY

 

 

$19mm average hold position

 

 

No meaningful unsold, underwritten positions since the credit crisis started in mid ‘07

 

 

New leveraged finance transactions virtually non-existent since 1Q08

Retail & Discretionary Consumer

 

 

Retail exposures of $9.2B

 

   

5% of portfolio; loans $4.4B

 

   

Non-discretionary exposure – $2.2B (food retailers, drugstores, discounters)

 

 

Largest components: specialty stores ($3.1B) and restaurants ($2.3B): ~40% in McDonalds franchisee loans

 

 

23% are in asset-based lending

 

   

Highly structured and secured

Highly Cyclical Industries

 

 

Construction/building materials

 

   

Exposures $6.7B; loans $3.1B

 

   

Additional $0.6B in related sectors

 

   

60% tied to residential

 

 

Apparel and Textile

 

   

Exposures $2.7B; loans $0.7B

 

 

Advertising and Media

 

   

Exposures $1.2B; loans $0.5B

Automotive

 

 

Direct automotive exposures $2.8B at year-end

 

   

1% of portfolio

 

   

Include suppliers, dealers and aftermarket

 

 

Additional $1.5B exposure indirectly linked (e.g. plastic, steel suppliers to the industry)

 

 

Loans with high to medium at-risk dependency on domestic manufacturers estimated: <30% of automotive portfolio

 

 

Actions taken over past few years to improve structure and collateral

 

LOGO    9


Government, Non-Profit, & Healthcare

A high quality credit growth opportunity

COMMERCIAL BANKING

 

 

GNPH Exposure Growth ($ in millions)

LOGO

 

 

GNPH exposure is up 51% YoY; majority of exposure is A or AA-rated

 

 

Targeted GNPH customers are state and local municipalities, non-profit and healthcare entities, and educational institutions

 

 

Underwriting of risk is ALWAYS based upon creditworthiness of the customer — no material value given to third party insurers

 

LOGO    10


A conservative approach to credit

COMMERCIAL BANKING

 

 

Proactive Management

 

 

Took advantage of market liquidity in recent years to exit weak & unprofitable credits

 

   

Exited $1.5B annually from 2005-2007

 

 

Quarterly deep dive credit reviews with senior management

 

 

Escalated approval of new exposures over $15mm

 

 

Proactively discussing renewals and refinancing

Strong Reserves and Capital

 

 

Building reserves and maintaining high loan loss coverage ratio

 

 

Loan loss reserves to total loan ratio: 2.41%

 

   

Reserve ratio steady and strong through the cycle

 

 

Loan loss reserves to nonperforming loans: 2.75x

Stringent Focus on Recession Management

 

 

Reallocate resources (human and financial) to manage problems in existing portfolio

 

 

Formed Problem Loan Prevention Teams

 

   

Led by experienced, top talent

 

 

Engage senior management in more day-today account management decisions

 

 

Track portfolio movement weekly and monthly to focus on emerging issues

 

 

Dramatically cut discretionary spending

Careful Client Selection

 

 

Continue our careful client selection – not just a reaction to the crisis

 

 

Drive growth in high quality, low risk relationships; e.g. Government, Non-Profit & Healthcare

 

 

Strict guidelines for pre-selecting prospects

 

 

Eschew credit-only and/or unprofitable/risky relationships

 

LOGO    11


Near-term outlook

COMMERCIAL BANKING

 

 

 

Loan demand is
waning
  

•   Lower sales mean clients borrow less for expansion or working capital

•   Line usage always decreases during recessions

Strong
capital/reserves for
credit deterioration
  

•   Always manage the business with the expectation of cyclical credit downturns

•   This commercial credit cycle is going to get worse for commercial banks before it gets better

Proactive
management of
problems
  

•   Reassign people and resources accordingly

•   Early warning systems

•   Address problems quickly

Aggressively
managing Real
Estate concentration
  

•   Commercial construction and development is the area of greatest concern

•   Stabilized multi-family lending has lower volatility

WaMu is a good
addition
  

•   #1 multi-family originator in the U.S.

•   Branch platform to expand Commercial Banking franchise

 

LOGO    12


Why We Love this Business

COMMERCIAL BANKING

 

 

 

 

Great clients

 

   

Mostly privately-owned, multi-generational, family businesses

 

   

Loyal and conservative owners

 

   

Lots of experience managing in difficult times

 

 

High demand for JPM’s product platform

 

   

Non-credit revenue represents 64% of total revenue

 

   

Average annual IB fee revenue growth 2005-2008: 21%

 

   

Loans to deposits ratio of 1.03x

 

 

Prudent segment and client selection

 

   

Avoiding commercial real estate: no growth in the portfolio in the past four years

 

   

Avoiding leveraged loans to financial sponsors: less than 1% of total exposure

 

   

Pursuing GNPH segment: lower risk, improving spreads, profitable segment with high demand for non-credit products and services

 

 

Mainstream C&I lending is more granular and better structured than large corporate lending

 

   

Loans generally collateralized with borrowing base advances

 

   

Higher standards for loan terms and financial covenants

 

 

Significant benefits and economies of scale:

 

   

Non-credit expense essentially flat for three years

 

   

Reserves for losses maintained at the high end of the range

 

   

Capacity to invest in products and systems that produce deposits and non-credit revenue

 

   

Customer flight to quality/financial strength provides self-funding and cross-sell

 

   

Business that grows over time with United States

 

LOGO    13


FEBRUARY 26, 2009

CARD SERVICES

 

 

Gordon Smith, Card Services Chief Executive Officer

 

LOGO   


Agenda

CARD SERVICES

 

 

 

Credit environment

   2

Portfolio positioning

   12

How has Chase reacted to the environment

   20

Core vision and strategy

   27

Overcoming medium-term financial challenges

   36

Managing through the downturn

   40

Note: All data excludes WaMu portfolio performance, unless specifically noted

 

LOGO    1


Tougher credit environment

CREDIT ENVIRONMENT

 

 

 

 

We expect credit losses to materially increase in 2009

 

 

While we don’t predict unemployment rate, we are prepared for 9% by year-end

 

 

Increasing deterioration in the labor market has exacerbated consumer stress, which has manifested in the form of lower payment rates

 

 

Consumer confidence is at record lows and is having an adverse impact on sales volumes

 

 

Accounts are rolling forward to charge-off at an accelerated pace

 

 

Bankruptcy filings are normalizing to pre-2005 levels

 

 

Home price depreciation stressed areas have seen a larger deterioration in credit performance

 

 

Regions with higher unemployment rates are further impacting credit performance

 

LOGO    2


Home price depreciation was the largest driver of credit losses until mid-2008 when unemployment became a meaningful factor

CREDIT ENVIRONMENT

 

 

Net Charge-Off Rate (NCO) vs. Unemployment Rate

LOGO

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics for unemployment rate; S&P for Case Shiller Index data

 

LOGO    3


Unemployment rate will be the primary driver of credit losses in 2009

CREDIT ENVIRONMENT

 

 

 

 

In our portfolio, the relationship between losses and unemployment has been less than 1:1 because of our prime/superprime focus, coupled with our co-brand and rewards business model

 

 

Relationship between unemployment rate and losses has changed in this downturn due to the compounding impact of home price depreciation, equities volatility and consumer confidence

 

 

Reaffirm our NCO outlook of 7% for 1Q09

 

4Q09 Unemployment Scenarios

   Projected 4Q09 NCO Rate1

8%

   8% +/-

9%

   9.0% - 9.5%

10%

   10.0% - 10.5%

 

1

Assumes receivables are flat relative to 1Q09

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics for unemployment rate

 

LOGO    4


Increase in unemployment rates and home price declines has led to a marked slowdown in payment rates

CREDIT ENVIRONMENT

 

 

Unemployment vs. Chase Card Services Payment Rates

LOGO

 

1

Industry payment rates represent average of Chase, C, COF, BAC, AXP Lending, and DFS trusts

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Internal Chase data; SEC Trust Filings

 

LOGO    5


Drop in consumer confidence has been accompanied by falling sales volumes

CREDIT ENVIRONMENT

 

 

Consumer Confidence Index vs. Sales Volumes1

LOGO

 

1

Sales data excludes cash advances and balance transfers

 

Source: Conference Board, Internal Chase data

 

LOGO    6


Accounts are rolling forward at a quicker rate with fewer curing in the delinquency buckets

CREDIT ENVIRONMENT

 

 

Current to 30 days – YoY % Change

LOGO

60+ days to 90 days – YoY % Change

LOGO

30+ days to 60 days – YoY % Change

LOGO

90+ days to Charge- Off – YoY % Change

LOGO

Source: Internal Chase data

 

LOGO    7


Bankruptcy filings are returning to pre-2005 levels

CREDIT ENVIRONMENT

 

 

National Bankruptcy Filings ($ in millions)

LOGO

Source: Administrative office of the US Courts; Internal Chase forecast for 2009

 

LOGO    8


Impact of housing on credit performance

CREDIT ENVIRONMENT

 

 

LOGO

Credit Performance

LOGO

Source: S&P for Case Shiller Home Price Index; based on latest state level data available for housing price change (data as of 3Q08); Internal Chase data

 

LOGO    9


Impact of unemployment on credit performance

CREDIT ENVIRONMENT

 

 

LOGO

Credit Performance

LOGO

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics for Unemployment rate; Internal Chase data

 

LOGO    10


Agenda

CARD SERVICES

 

 

 

Credit environment

   2

Portfolio positioning

   12

How has Chase reacted to the environment

   20

Core vision and strategy

   27

Overcoming medium-term financial challenges

   36

Managing through the downturn

   40

 

LOGO    11


Portfolio mix and credit capabilities are an asset, but don’t isolate us from current downturn

PORTFOLIO POSITIONING

 

 

 

 

Our increased focus on rewards and partner business has driven a positive risk selection

 

 

Our exposure to the home price depreciation stressed areas of CA and FL is in line with peers

 

 

We have a better risk profile relative to our peer group

 

 

Our customers have longer credit histories relative to peer group, which translates into better credit performance

 

 

Our portfolio has more established credit bureau profile compared to peers

 

 

We have a higher percentage of homeowners in our portfolio relative to peers and they exhibit superior credit performance

 

LOGO    12


Increased focus on rewards and partnership business drive a positive risk selection

PORTFOLIO POSITIONING

 

 

 

 

Cards with rewards have higher level of loyalty, engagement, and superior risk performance

 

 

Rewards represented 58% of outstandings

Rewards as % of Outstandings ($ in billions)1

LOGO

4Q08 Credit Performance1

LOGO

 

Note: GPCC = General Purpose Credit Cards

Source: Internal Chase data

1

Excludes Retail Partner GPCC

 

LOGO    13


Portfolio positioning across peers

PORTFOLIO POSITIONING

 

 

 

 

Chase’s exposure to home price depreciation stressed regions of CA and FL is in line with peers

Distribution of Receivables

LOGO

 

 

1

DFS data as of May’08

2

Chase data as of Dec’08

3

COF and C data as of Mar’08

4

BAC data as of Jul’08

5

AXP data as of Aug’08

Source: Trust filings

 

LOGO    14


FICO distribution of securitized receivables

PORTFOLIO POSITIONING

 

 

 

 

Product mix, targeting and underwriting has led to a better risk profile

Trust Receivables – FICO< 660 or No FICO Score

LOGO

Trust Receivables – FICO>720

LOGO

 

1

Chase data as of Sep’08 represents Issuance Trust

2

AXP FICO>720 is based off disclosure in Fixed Income Investor Presentation

Source: SEC Filings (C, COF – Mar’08, BAC – Jun’08; DFS – May’08; AXP – Aug’08; Chase – Sep’08); Investor Presentation

 

LOGO    15


Chase profile vs. competitors and industry

PORTFOLIO POSITIONING

 

 

 

 

Chase Card Services’ customers have longer credit histories vs. the industry

Avg. Duration of Customer Credit Profile (in Years) 1

LOGO

Chase 30+ % by Age of Oldest Credit Account

LOGO

 

Source: Experian

1

Based off 3Q08 data

2

Peers: BAC, C, AXP, WFC, DFS

3

Industry is defined as all General Purpose Credit Card holders at Experian

 

LOGO    16


Chase profile vs. competitors and industry

PORTFOLIO POSITIONING

 

 

 

 

Customers have more established credit profiles vs. the industry. These customers perform better than less established customers

Avg. # of Credit Accounts in Good Standing1

LOGO

Chase 30+ % by # Credit Accounts

LOGO

 

Source: Experian

1

Based off 3Q08 data

2

Peers: BAC, C, AXP, WFC, DFS

3

Industry is defined as all General Purpose Credit Card holders at Experian

 

LOGO    17


Chase profile vs. competitors and industry

PORTFOLIO POSITIONING

 

 

 

 

Homeowners have better risk performance, despite price declines

Percentage of Customers that are Homeowners1

LOGO

Chase 30+ Delinquency Rate Performance

LOGO

 

Source: Experian

1

Based off 3Q08 data

2

Peers: BAC, C, AXP, WFC, DFS

3

Industry is defined as all General Purpose Credit Card holders at Experian

 

LOGO    18


Agenda

CARD SERVICES

 

 

 

Credit environment

   2

Portfolio positioning

   12

How has Chase reacted to the environment

   20

Core vision and strategy

   27

Overcoming medium-term financial challenges

   36

Managing through the downturn

   40

 

LOGO    19


How has Chase reacted to the environment. . .

HOW HAS CHASE REACTED TO THE ENVIRONMENT

 

 

 

 

We have tightened underwriting based on leading economic indicators, and continue to lend to creditworthy customers

 

 

We have reduced our contingent liabilities by closing inactive accounts

 

 

We have increased our collection efforts and intensity

 

   

Accelerated the start of calling efforts by 30%, while still staffing at 5-10% above capacity requirements

 

   

Added 850 collectors since 3Q07

 

 

We have expanded use of flexible payment programs, with 600,000 new enrollments in 2008

 

   

Default performance is in line with expectations

 

LOGO    20


Average FICO score of new accounts has trended upwards

HOW HAS CHASE REACTED TO THE ENVIRONMENT

 

 

 

 

Reflects changes in product mix, targeting and tightened underwriting

Chase Card Services Average Origination FICO

LOGO

Source: Internal Chase data

 

LOGO    21


Credit Line Management

HOW HAS CHASE REACTED TO THE ENVIRONMENT

 

 

 

 

We have significantly tightened our line management practices, and continue to lend to existing and new customers

 

 

At the same time, we have been proactive in reducing our contingent liabilities by closing inactive accounts

Credit Line Management — 2008 ($ in billions)

LOGO

Source: Internal Chase data

 

LOGO    22


WaMu card portfolio

HOW HAS CHASE REACTED TO THE ENVIRONMENT

 

 

 

 

Portfolio overview and recent actions

 

   

$28B in Outstandings

 

   

Conversion to Chase Card Services platform in March 2009

 

   

Suspended all new accounts programs, except for branch applications

 

   

Pulled back on balance transfer and check programs

 

   

Reduced credit line exposure for consumer and business card programs

 

   

Aligned risk management practices with legacy Chase portfolio

 

 

Loss Outlook

 

   

Expect losses for WaMu book to approach 15% +/- in 1Q09

Geographic Distribution of Receivables

LOGO

FICO Distribution of Receivables

LOGO

Source: Internal Chase data

 

LOGO    23


Credit trends — Chase Card Services vs. industry

HOW HAS CHASE REACTED TO THE ENVIRONMENT

 

 

Net Charge-Off Rate

LOGO

Source: Earnings releases; SEC filings

Notes: BAC US Consumer credit and International Consumer credit segment, reorganized in 3Q08, excludes U.S. Small Business Card; C NA Card segment includes Canada and Puerto Rico but excludes Mexico, and includes sales finance loans formerly reflected in C Financial; COF US Card segment, reorganized in 1Q08, includes Consumer Credit Card, Small Business and Installment Loans and excludes international credit card; DFS data excludes international loans and installment lending; American Express US consumer and small business lending portfolios. WaMu excluded from Chase

 

LOGO    24


Summary

HOW HAS CHASE REACTED TO THE ENVIRONMENT

 

 

 

 

The macroeconomic environment has generated significant headwinds for 2009 and likely into 2010

 

 

We have been diligent with our risk management practices

 

   

Monthly monitoring of high risk geographies at MSA level

 

   

High-risk geographies defined by observed and forecasted data points for unemployment rate and home price depreciation

 

   

Adjustments to score cutoffs and criteria in high risk geographies

 

   

Explicit use of unemployment rate and home price depreciation data in loss forecasting models

 

 

Our portfolio mix and credit capabilities have been a real advantage

 

 

We continue to invest for growth

 

LOGO    25


Agenda

CARD SERVICES

 

 

Credit environment

   2

Portfolio positioning

   12

How has Chase reacted to the environment

   20

Core vision and strategy

   27

Overcoming medium-term financial challenges

   36

Managing through the downturn

   40

 

LOGO    26


We continue to stay focused on our core vision, despite a challenging business environment

CORE VISION AND STRATEGY

 

 

Vision

Create lifelong, engaged relationships with our customers by being a trusted provider of financial services

 

Brand

  

Rewards

  

Customer experience

•    Create a differentiated brand

 

•    Strong proprietary brand

 

•    Partnerships to enhance and extend brand

 

•    Distribution channels to raise recognition, reinforce

 

•    Build brand equity that delivers high performance

 

•    Business strategies are aligned with brand positioning

 

•    Consistency across all channels

  

•    Rationalize existing rewards products

 

•    Develop proprietary rewards platform

 

•    Develop targeted offers for each customer segment

 

•    Redemption to be easy and intuitive

  

•    Engage the customer early in the lifecycle

 

•    Leverage every interaction to enhance the relationship

 

•    Create a superior online experience

 

•    Improve customer service

 

•    POS authorizations

 

•    Disputes

 

•    Card replacement

 

LOGO    27


LOGO

We maintain our focus on the Chase branded business

CORE VISION AND STRATEGY

 

 

 

 

Completed business reorganization discussed in 2008

 

 

Segmented marketing framework, e.g. acquisition and portfolio marketing

LOGO

Source: Chase Card Services brand tracker survey

 

LOGO    28


LOGO

Our large distribution network will enable increase in brand awareness and customer engagement

CORE VISION AND STRATEGY

 

 

 

 

With the addition of 2,207 WaMu branches, Chase now has 5,474 branches across a national footprint

 

 

Expanded retail footprint will create two significant benefits

 

   

In general, Chase experiences a 10%+ lift in overall acquisition rates (all channels except direct retail channels) in-footprint markets

Branch Distribution Advantages

LOGO

2008 Accounts/Branch/Month

LOGO

 

1

Brands Direct Mail data represents Chase Brands

2

Branch data represents Retail Branch Channel

Source: Internal Chase data

 

LOGO    29


LOGO

Our co-brand partner business continues to perform very well and we are focused on solidifying key partnerships

CORE VISION AND STRATEGY

 

 

 

 

In 2007/2008 we have extended key partner contracts

 

 

We have also begun to rationalize our existing partner portfolio with a renewed focus on scale and profitability

Co-brand vs. Chase Brand Performance

LOGO

Our key co-brand partners provide us access to 80-100mm high-potential, loyal relationships

 

1

Sales/active is for 2008, all vintages

2

Brands Direct Mail represents Chase Brands Direct Mail Channel

3

Cobrand/affinity data represents partner portfolio, excludes retail partner portfolio

Source: Internal Chase data

 

LOGO    30


LOGO

Benefits of rewards-based customer engagement

CORE VISION AND STRATEGY

 

 

 

 

Rewards customers have higher level of engagement which drives higher revenue

 

 

Opportunity exists to increase level of engagement for non-rewards customers

Increased Spending

LOGO

Better Credit Performance

LOGO

Greater Retention

LOGO

Improved Profit

LOGO

Source: Internal Chase data for FY 2008

 

LOGO    31


LOGO

Launching a new proprietary, Chase rewards platform

CORE VISION AND STRATEGY

 

 

Vision Plan

 

 

Create a differentiated, points-based rewards offering to drive spend on Chase-branded cards

 

   

Strong earning options with ability to earn across multiple Chase product offerings

 

   

Exceptional array of redemption options with strong customer value

 

   

Simple, user-friendly interface with fully integrated online experience

 

 

Help drive better risk-adjusted revenue growth for the Chase-branded business

 

   

Enhance value proposition of products, pricing power

 

   

Drive customer engagement—increased share of customer spend, borrowing needs, and lower attrition

 

 

Maintain sustainable rewards economics

 

   

More favorable redemption category mix

 

   

Better utilization of Internet channel

 

   

Strategic partnerships and enhanced sourcing

Graduated launch, starting in mid-2009

 

LOGO    32


LOGO

We continue to improve our customer experience

CORE VISION AND STRATEGY

 

 

The Chase Promise

 

POS

Authorization

  

•   Your card will be available to use when and where you want

Card

Replacement

  

•   If your card is lost or stolen, a new card will be delivered where and when you want it

 

•   Act as the customer’s advocate when they are “stranded”

Customer Dispute Servicing   

•   If a charge on your bill is wrong, a Chase advocate is in your corner

 

LOGO    33


LOGO

Early benefits from our renewed focus on customer experience is already evident in our performance

CORE VISION AND STRATEGY

 

 

Improved Customer Satisfaction1

LOGO

Improved Card Replacement Strategy2

LOGO

Improved POS Authorization Rates

LOGO

Improved Service Quality

LOGO

Results in higher wallet share and longer relationships for Chase

 

1

Based on Internal Chase Customer Survey

2

Reflects December data for 2007 and 2008 as we introduced the metric in 2H’07

Source: Internal Chase data

 

LOGO    34


Agenda

CARD SERVICES

 

 

 

Credit environment

   2

Portfolio positioning

   12

How has Chase reacted to the environment

   20

Core vision and strategy

   27

Overcoming medium-term financial challenges

   36

Managing through the downturn

   40

 

LOGO    35


Chase led the industry in sales growth, coupled with lower credit losses

OVERCOMING MEDIUM - TERM FINANCIAL CHALLENGES

 

 

FY 2008 Sales Volume Growth YoY

LOGO

FY 2008 Ending Receivables Growth YoY

LOGO

FY 2008 Net Charge-Off Rate

LOGO

 

1

Chase purchase volumes reflect sales volume only and excludes cash advances and BT’s

2

DFS data represents fiscal year ending Nov’08; Purchase volume data represents sales volume only; NCO represents credit card loans only and excludes installment loans

3

COF data represents US Card segment, which includes consumer credit card, small business credit card and installment loans

4

BAC data represents Consumer Credit card portfolio (including international cards); excludes small business credit card portfolio

5

AXP US Lending portfolio

Source: Earnings Releases and Supplements; SEC filings, Investor Presentation

 

LOGO    36


However, we are in the middle of the pack in terms of profitability

OVERCOMING MEDIUM - TERM FINANCIAL CHALLENGES

 

 

FY 2008 ROE

LOGO

 

1

DFS’s profits from continuing operations have been adjusted to exclude after tax impact of $863mm payment from MasterCard related to litigation settlement

 

Source: SEC Filings; Earnings Releases and Supplements

 

LOGO    37


We have focused efforts to improve aggregate portfolio returns, over time

OVERCOMING MEDIUM - TERM FINANCIAL CHALLENGES

 

 

 

 

Increased emphasis on capturing more of our existing customers’ business

 

   

A 100bps increase in share of wallet would generate ~$180mm in pre-tax income

 

 

Reduce, significantly, small sub-scale partnerships

 

 

Fewer low-rate promotional offers to customers who do no other business with us

 

 

Strengthen our Chase Brand Rewards capabilities

 

 

Selectively reprice customers on a segmented basis

 

LOGO    38


Agenda

CARD SERVICES

 

 

 

Credit environment

   1

Portfolio positioning

   11

How has Chase reacted to the environment

   19

Core vision and strategy

   26

Overcoming medium-term financial challenges

   35

Managing through the downturn

   39

 

LOGO    39


Spending from our more affluent customers has experienced the largest decline

MANAGING THROUGH THE DOWNTURN

 

 

Sales Growth – YoY

LOGO

Source: Internal Chase Data

 

LOGO    40


Both credit and debit are experiencing a slowdown in sales

MANAGING THROUGH THE DOWNTURN

 

 

Chase Debit vs. Credit Sales Growth – YoY

LOGO

Source: Internal Chase data

 

LOGO    41


Consumers are spending less on discretionary items

MANAGING THROUGH THE DOWNTURN

 

 

Discretionary vs. Nondiscretionary Sales Growth – YoY

LOGO

Source: Internal Chase data

 

LOGO    42


Consumers are becoming more focused on the simple pleasures in life as well as “finding deals”

MANAGING THROUGH THE DOWNTURN

 

 

Change in Sales YoY

LOGO

Change in Sales YoY

LOGO

Source: Internal Chase data

 

LOGO    43


However, Chase continued to gain sales volume market share in 2008

MANAGING THROUGH THE DOWNTURN

 

 

Sales Volume Market Share – FY 2008

LOGO

Change in Sales Volume Market Share

LOGO

 

1

Chase data for computing market share includes cash advances but excludes balance transfers

2

BAC data represents consumer credit card portfolio, including international; excludes small business card portfolio

3

Discover data for computing market share includes cash advances

Source: Earnings Releases and Supplements; Nilson Report (Issue # 918)

 

LOGO    44


Unfair and Deceptive Acts or Practices (UDAP) proposal

MANAGING THROUGH THE DOWNTURN

 

 

($ in millions)

 

    

Description

 

Summary impact

  

•   No 2009 impact

 

•   Effective date July 1, 2010

  
Rate repricing restrictions   

•   Limitations on ability to price existing customer balances for risk; limited to 30+ day delinquency with 45 day notice

 

Payment hierarchy / allocation

  

•   Payments will be allocated in one of two ways:

 

•   “Pro rata” to balances with different APRs

 

•   Highest APR balance first

  
  

 

Statement cycle time, payment processing

  

•   Customers will be given approximately 7 additional days to make a payment

 

•   Payment cutoff time defined as 5PM on due date

  

 

Practices NOT used by Card Services

  

•   Prohibition of double cycle billing

 

•   Prohibition of “universal default,” or activity at another lender, to trigger a pricing change

  

 

LOGO    45


Potential UDAP mitigation strategies

MANAGING THROUGH THE DOWNTURN

 

 

 

 

Short term impact of 70 to 100bps on normalized pre-tax ROO

 

 

Volatility expected through 2011 as marketplace adjusts to implementation of new rules

 

 

Returns expected to reach existing levels on a potentially smaller base by late 2011, early 2012

 

    

Potential Mitigants

Pricing Strategy Changes

  

•   Move all pricing to variable index prior to compliance date

 

•   Shorten duration of acquisitions introductory rates

 

•   Targeted higher contract APRs at acquisition

 

•   Annual/Service Fee for low engagement/low usage customers

  
  
  
Policy and Universe Changes   

•   Bias balance build programs toward limited duration promotions targeted at customers who actively use card product for purchasing and payments

 

•   Reduction in marketing to segments with marginal returns

  
Alternative Product Constructs   

 

•   Evaluate alternative product constructs that maintain low contract APRs, offset with membership fees

 

•   Enable customers to restructure borrowing into fixed payment terms

  

 

LOGO    46


Key overall messages

MANAGING THROUGH THE DOWNTURN

 

 

 

 

Despite the challenging environment we remained focused on our vision to create lifelong, engaged relationships with our customers

 

 

Our business reorganization is complete which has enabled a more refined focus on our Chase branded business

 

 

The expanded Chase branch footprint is expected to have a significant benefit on the overall Chase branded business

 

 

We are rationalizing our existing partnership portfolio and have taken steps to solidify and extend our key, strategic partner contracts

 

 

Proprietary Chase rewards platform will be launched in 2009

 

 

We remain focused on providing a superior customer experience and initial results have confirmed our early progress

 

 

Finally, we believe that in conjunction with our credit strategies, we have positioned ourselves well to manage through the downturn and emerge well positioned at the end of this cycle

 

LOGO    47


FEBRUARY 26, 2009

RETAIL BANKING

Charlie Scharf, Retail Financial Services Chief Executive Officer

 

LOGO   


Agenda

RETAIL BANKING

 

 

 

     Page

Retail Banking

   1

WaMu Update

   22

 

LOGO    1


Retail Financial Services

RETAIL BANKING

 

 

 

 

With acquisition of WaMu, Retail Banking becomes the dominant source of Retail Financial Services profit

 

 

Evolution of branch footprint has resulted in a national, highly profitable, and consistently growing franchise

 

 

Strategy and business focus has been consistent since 2000

 

 

8 years of consistent organic growth

 

 

Acquisition competency has enabled us to opportunistically transform franchise and bring our ability to grow organically to the expanded footprint

 

LOGO    2


Footprint evolution — JPMorgan Chase before Bank One merger

RETAIL BANKING

 

 

Branch map

LOGO

 

     Chase
2003
 

Branches

     539  

Checking accts (# ‘000s)

     2,331  

States

     4  

Population growth in footprint (2008-2013)

     3.3 %

Consumer & Business Banking pretax ($mm)

   $ (12 )

 

 

Highly concentrated

 

 

Lack of scale

 

 

Low growth

 

 

Unprofitable

Source: SNL Financial and past acquisition investor presentations; company filings and internal analysis; Claritas demographic data and projections

 

LOGO    3


Footprint evolution — JPMorgan Chase and Bank One

RETAIL BANKING

 

 

Branch map

LOGO

 

     Chase
2003
    Chase/Bank One
2005
 

Branches

     539       2,295  

Checking accts (# ‘000s)

     2,331       8,793  

States

     4       16  

Population growth in footprint (2008-2013)

     3.3 %     3.2 %

Consumer & Business Banking pretax ($mm)

   $ (12 )   $ 2,760  

 

 

More scale

 

 

Profitable and growing

Source: SNL Financial and past acquisition investor presentations; company filings and internal analysis; Claritas demographic data and projections

 

LOGO    4


Footprint evolution — JPMorgan Chase and Bank of New York

RETAIL BANKING

 

 

Branch map

LOGO

 

     Chase
2003
    Chase/Bank One
2005
    Chase/Bank of NY
2007
 

Branches

     539       2,295       2,937  

Checking accts (# ‘000s)

     2,331       8,793       10,839  

States

     4       16       16  

Population growth in footprint (2008-2013)

     3.3 %     3.2 %     3.5 %

Consumer & Business Banking pretax ($mm)

   $ (12 )   $ 2,760     $ 3,711  

 

 

Continued growth

 

 

Solidified position in NY market

Source: SNL Financial and past acquisition investor presentations; company filings and internal analysis; Claritas demographic data and projections

 

LOGO    5


Footprint evolution — JPMorgan Chase and Washington Mutual

RETAIL BANKING

 

 

Branch map

LOGO

 

 

National

 

 

Much higher growth

 

 

Very profitable

 

     Chase
2003
    Chase/Bank One
2005
    Chase/Bank of NY
2007
    Chase/WaMu
4Q081
 

Branches

     539       2,295       2,937       5,410  

Checking accts (# ‘000s)

     2,331       8,793       10,839       24,499  

States

     4       16       16       23  

Population growth in footprint (2008-2013)

     3.3 %     3.2 %     3.5 %     5.4 %

Consumer & Business Banking pretax ($mm)

   $ (12 )   $ 2,760     $ 3,711     $ 6,880  

 

1

4Q08 annualized pretax

Source: SNL Financial and past acquisition investor presentations; company filings and internal analysis; Claritas demographic data and projections

 

LOGO    6


Consistent strategy and business focus since 2000

RETAIL BANKING

 

 

 

 

Consistent management practices

 

   

Branch P&Ls

 

   

Monthly business reviews by branch

 

   

Be in the branches

 

   

Daily sales reporting

 

   

Create local excitement and recognition

 

   

Active customer engagement

 

 

Culture

 

   

Customers at the top of the org. chart

 

   

Front line employees next

 

   

Management and staff at the bottom g branch support

 

   

Simple compensation plans critical

 

   

Community banking with the benefits of a global bank

 

 

Success

 

   

Acquire and deepen

 

   

Customer engagement and service

 

   

Grow profit

 

LOGO    7


Consumer and Business Banking consistent profit growth

RETAIL BANKING

 

 

Pretax ($ in millions)

LOGO

 

 

Similar trend in revenue growth

 

LOGO    8


Background — branch banking has evolved dramatically

RETAIL BANKING

 

 

 

 

Our activities and reporting are built around the changing nature of the business

Pretax

 

     1975     2001     2008  

Deposits, loans, and traditional banking fees

   100 %   90 %   74 %

Investments, debit and credit cards

   0 %   10 %   26 %

 

LOGO    9


Our activities and determinants of success

RETAIL BANKING

 

 

 

What We Talk About    What We Track
Acquire    • Checking account growth
Deepen   

• Deposit growth

 

• Convenience services (e.g. Debit, Chase.com, bill pay)

 

• Additional products (e.g. Credit cards, loans, investments)

Customer Engagement   

• Customer service

 

• Mystery shops / surveys

Growth   

• Same branch (all of the above)

 

• New builds

LOGO
Profit Growth

 

LOGO    10


Consistent growth — acquire new customers

RETAIL BANKING

 

 

Net New Checking Accounts by Quarter1 (in thousands)

LOGO

 

 

Acquisition rate has grown from 15% to 25%

 

 

Net checking growth rate of 8%

 

Note: Reflects h-Bank One from January 2000 through March 2004

1

Net new checking accounts is new checking accounts minus lost checking accounts

 

LOGO    11


Growth in deposit balances

RETAIL BANKING

 

 

Retail Banking End of Period Deposits ($ in billions)

LOGO

 

 

Goal to grow balances 4-8% (without sacrificing margin)

 

 

Additional profit growth through enhanced cross-sell

 

LOGO    12


Consistent and high growth — debit

RETAIL BANKING

 

 

Debit Card Revenue ($ in millions)1

LOGO

Checking Accounts with Debit Card

LOGO

 

1

Debit card revenue includes signature and pin interchange, contra/points cost, annual fees and foreign exchange income for Retail Banking

Note: Consumer Banking only; includes all enrolled accounts

 

LOGO    13


Consistent growth — convenience services

RETAIL BANKING

 

 

Bill Pay — Percentage of Accounts Enrolled

LOGO

Chase.com — Percentage of Accounts Enrolled

LOGO

 

 

Expansion of convenience services solidifies customer relationship

 

 

Growth in convenience services is a core part of strategy

Note: Consumer Banking only; Percentages are based on total year end Consumer Banking checking accounts

 

LOGO    14


Growth in branch cross-sell

RETAIL BANKING

 

 

Credit Cards (in thousands)

LOGO

Investment Sales ($ in billions)

LOGO

Mortgage Sales ($ in billions)

LOGO

Home Equity Sales ($ in billions)

LOGO

Note: Includes h-Bank One 1/2000-6/2004. Includes h-Chase starting 7/2004, BNY starting 10/2006, and WaMu starting 10/2008

 

LOGO   

15


Investment revenue and assets under management

RETAIL BANKING

 

 

Revenue ($ in millions)

LOGO

Note: Includes h-Bank One, h-Chase starting 7/2004, BNY starting 10/2006, and WaMu starting 10/2008

Assets under Management ($ in billions)

LOGO

Note: End of year; Includes h-Bank One and h-Chase 2004-2005; Chase and BNY 2006; Chase 2007; and Chase and WaMu 2008

 

LOGO    16


Acquisition competency — Bank One

RETAIL BANKING

 

 

Growth in sales in h-Bank One branches

Credit Cards (in thousands)

LOGO

Investment Sales ($ in billions)

LOGO

Net New Checking Accounts (in thousands)

LOGO

Infrastructure

 

 

14 major systems converted and over 500 other applications consolidated prior to merger

 

LOGO    17


Acquisition competency — Chase

RETAIL BANKING

 

 

Growth in sales in h-Chase branches

Credit Cards (in thousands)

LOGO

Investment Sales ($ in billions)

LOGO

Net New Checking Accounts (in thousands)

LOGO

Merger-related expense and infrastructure

 

 

20 major systems converted and over 2,000 other applications consolidated

 

 

$3.4B in expense reductions

 

 

16K+ headcount reductions

 

LOGO    18


Acquisition competency — Bank of New York

RETAIL BANKING

 

 

Growth in sales in h-BNY branches

Credit Cards (in thousands)

LOGO

Investment Sales ($ in millions)

LOGO

Net New Checking Accounts (in thousands)

LOGO

Mortgage and Home Equity ($ in millions)

LOGO

Merger-related expense and infrastructure

 

 

15 major systems converted; approximately 150 other applications consolidated

 

 

$50mm expense reductions

 

 

480 headcount reductions

 

LOGO    19


New branches

RETAIL BANKING

 

 

New Build Initiative

 

     2002    2003    2004    2005    2006    2007    2008

Branches opened

   35    59    124    146    125    127    126

Cumulative branches opened

   35    94    218    364    489    616    742

New checking accounts (# 000’s)

   8    40    122    218    366    530    665

Checking accounts (# 000’s)

   7    40    139    298    537    854    1,226

 

 

Targeting 120 new branches in 2009, including 30 WaMu

 

 

Focused on expansion in major footprint markets

 

 

New builds generated 21% of overall checking production in 2008

 

 

New build checking account portfolio represents 10% of total Chase

 

LOGO    20


Consumer & Business Banking position

RETAIL BANKING

 

 

 

•   Strategy

 

•   Sales focus

 

•   Service focus

 

•   National and community

 

•   Product innovation

 

•   Execution

   LOGO                    All

•   Business practices, culture, management systems, management, etc. consistent for 8 years

 

•   Organic growth is clear and consistent

 

•   Franchise is enviable

 

•   Great and improving brand

 

•   National

 

•   High growth footprint

 

•   Great and consistent culture

 

•   JPM product set

 

•   JPM strength

 

LOGO    21


Agenda

RETAIL BANKING

 

 

 

     Page

Retail Banking

   1

WaMu Updated

   22

 

LOGO    22


A different kind of transaction

WAMU UPDATE

 

 

 

 

Transaction announced at 7PM on September 25

 

 

Immediate ownership of bank subsidiary

 

 

WaMu brand tarnished by seizure – need to move quickly

 

   

Immediate communication from Jamie

 

   

Employee town halls next day

 

   

Initial advertising launched first week

 

   

Conversion meetings began first week

 

   

Need to align rates

 

   

Need to stop attrition

 

 

Need to work closely with FDIC as receiver

 

 

Complication of holding company bankruptcy

 

LOGO    23


Initial advertising — strength and stability of JPM

WAMU UPDATE

 

 

LOGO

 

LOGO    24


Stabilized deposits immediately

WAMU UPDATE

 

 

WaMu Deposit Daily Trend (Total Deposits excluding Official Checks/PAA) — ($ in billions)

LOGO

 

 

9/12 thru 9/26—balance decline of ~$15B

 

 

9/26/08 through 2/13/09—balances were up $0.5B, even with the significant reduction in customer rate from Fed cuts and repositioning in the WaMu book

 

LOGO    25


Reversed checking account loss

WAMU UPDATE

 

 

WaMu Net Retail Checking Accounts — Average Daily Change by Week (in thousands)¹

LOGO

 

 

Significant direct mail drops in December

 

 

Continued focus in branches on net checking growth

 

¹

Daily average by week of net retail checking accounts excluding transfers; excludes dynamic closures that occur 1st business day of every month and closes accounts that are unfunded, have never been activated, or accounts that have been brought down to $0 balance and has had no customer-initiated activity in the last 60 days

 

LOGO    26


Integration activities completed to date

WAMU UPDATE

 

 

 

 

Deal announced on September 25, 2008

 

Date

 

Activity

•   Oct. 8

 

•   No-Fee access to 14,000 ATMs less than 2 weeks after deal

•   Oct. 31

 

•   Conform deposit and loan pricing

•   Nov. 5

 

•   Conversion dates set

•   Nov. 13

 

•   Technology decisions announced

•   Dec. 1

 

•   People decisions communicated — all 45,000 people

•   Dec. 15

 

•   Sales campaigns

•   Dec. 15

 

•   Field reorganization under 4 regions

•   Jan. 7

 

•   New compensation plans announced

 

•   Branch Manager

 

•   Assistant Branch Manager

 

•   Personal Banker

 

•   Teller

 

LOGO    27


Integration activities

WAMU UPDATE

 

 

Branch consolidations

 

 

300 by end of 1st quarter

 

 

92 between 2nd and 4th quarters

 

 

Need for dual operations in overlap markets

California rebrand

 

 

708 branches on 3/30/09

Conversion schedule

 

 

Washington, Oregon, Idaho, Utah

 

 

 

341 branches — 2nd quarter

 

 

Florida, Georgia, Connecticut, New Jersey, New York, Illinois, Texas

 

 

 

701 branches — 3rd quarter

 

 

California, Nevada, Arizona, Colorado

 

 

 

802 branches — 4th quarter

 

LOGO    28


Integration activities, continued

WAMU UPDATE

 

 

 

 

672 technology conversions

 

 

31,800 new workstations in branches

 

   

45% Teller / 55% Platform

 

 

3 data center conversions representing 4,200 servers

 

 

1,844 interior refurbishments

 

   

896 Occasio

 

   

948 other

 

 

32,000 new signs1 representing 1,844 branches

 

 

4,800 ATM sign conversions

 

1

Includes all signage, both exterior and interior

 

LOGO    29


Cost save detail

WAMU UPDATE

 

 

 

 

Gross expense reductions of $2,750mm expected to be achieved across all businesses

 

 

Approximately 12,000 projected headcount reductions from time of merger announcement

 

 

Major components of expense saves include the following:

 

($ in millions)

      

Compensation & employee-related

   $ 1,350  

Marketing, Technology, Real Estate, Other

     1,400  
        

Gross savings

   $ 2,750  

Additional investment spend

     (750 )
        

Projected net savings

   $ 2,000  

 

 

Majority of savings to be achieved by end of 2009

 

 

Additional investment spend of $750mm comprised of:

 

   

Sales people

 

   

Facilities

 

   

Marketing

 

LOGO    30


Revenue growth potential: credit card and investment sales

WAMU UPDATE

 

 

 

 

Branch network provides opportunity to cross-sell more products, particularly credit card and investment sales:

 

   

Credit card

 

   

In 2007, Chase produced 2x the per branch credit card production of WaMu

   

Achieving this productivity from WaMu branches would generate an additional 500,000 credit cards sold annually through the branches

 

   

Investment sales

 

   

Chase’s % of retail bank households that have an investment product is 2x greater than WaMu

   

Chase’s Financial Advisors produce on average 60% more investment sales per year

   

Achieving Chase investment sales productivity and increasing number of Financial Advisors could lead to an additional $8-10B in sales annually through the branches

Credit Card Sales per Branch per Month — 2007

LOGO

Investment Sales per Branch per Month — 2007

LOGO

 

LOGO    31


WaMu provides unique opportunity to expand retail banking franchise and generate attractive returns for JPMorgan Chase shareholders

WAMU UPDATE

 

 

Strategic Fit

 

 

Greatly enhances retail banking platform in attractive markets

 

   

Combined deposits of $911B and 5,410 branches at close

 

   

Expanding into attractive new markets (CA + FL)

 

   

Increases market share in existing largest fast-growing markets (NY, TX, IL, AZ, CO, UT)

Financially Compelling

 

 

Accretive immediately; should be substantially so in future

 

   

Asset write-downs reduce risk to volatility in future earnings

 

   

Allows significant margin for error

 

 

Opportunity to grow revenue and realize significant cost savings

 

   

Ability to bring expanded Chase products and services to WaMu branches

 

   

Drive efficiencies in branch network and back office

 

 

JPMorgan Chase maintains strong capital and liquidity positions

 

   

Retail deposits add to stable funding base

Ability to execute

 

 

Proven capabilities with success in Bank One/Chase and Bank of New York transactions

 

 

Little overlap with Bear Stearns integration

 

LOGO    32


FEBRUARY 26, 2009

ASSET MANAGEMENT

Jes Staley, Asset Management Chief Executive Officer

 

LOGO   


Private Banking is showing strong growth

ASSET MANAGEMENT

 

 

2008 Highlights

 

 

Net AUS flows of $75B, up 45% from 2007

 

 

Earnings up 10%+ YoY

 

 

Loan-to-deposit ratio at year end - 53%

 

 

75% of Private Bank AUM beat client benchmarks

 

 

1,400 net new $10mm client accounts & 4,200 net new $500k client accounts

 

 

The Global Access Portfolios, our flagship multi-asset class investment solution for private clients, generated excess returns over the benchmark of 2.5%+ for balanced strategies and 6%+ for growth strategies

AUS Flows ($ in billions)

LOGO

 

LOGO    1


Cash assets grew despite turbulent market for money market funds

ASSET MANAGEMENT

 

 

2008 Highlights

 

 

$210B in net flows, AUM up 53%

 

 

Largest manager of AAA-rated liquidity funds; global market share of 13%; global institutional market share of 17%, almost twice that of the next largest competitor

 

 

Avoided major setbacks from SIVs, subprime and Lehman

Global Cash Year-End AUM ($ in billions)

LOGO

 

LOGO    2


Alternatives saw setbacks during the year

ASSET MANAGEMENT

 

 

2008 Highlights

 

 

Unprecedented headwinds with illiquidity and shrinking leverage

 

 

Asset Management performance fees fell by 79% from 2007 to 2008

 

 

Highbridge

 

   

AUM fell 32%, now stabilizing

 

   

The Multi-Strategy Fund performance in 2008 was down 27%

 

   

Strong 2008 performance for Statistical Opportunities Fund (up 22%) and Market Neutral Mutual Fund (up 10%)

 

   

Early 2009 returns are improving

 

 

Outlook for 2009 is positive with many distressed opportunities

 

   

Secondary market opportunities from distressed sellers of private equity stakes

 

   

Real Estate Group plans to purchase portfolios and offer sub-advisory services

Alternatives Year-End AUM ($ in billions)

LOGO

 

LOGO    3


Recent equity and fixed income investment performance is mixed and long-term performance is still strong

ASSET MANAGEMENT

 

 

2008 Highlights

 

 

U.S. equity performance improved during the year

 

 

Global fixed income had difficult time in unprecedented market, but kept good long-term performance

 

 

Well-positioned for market stabilization

Performance (% of AUM in Top 2 Lipper Quartiles)

U.S. Platform – Equity

LOGO

U.S. Platform – Fixed Income

LOGO

 

LOGO    4


Three principal risks in Asset Management

ASSET MANAGEMENT

 

 

Market Risk – Risk of Not Delivering Expected Risk/Return Profile

 

 

This is the fundamental risk of the asset management business - we approach it with a fiduciary mindset

 

 

Strong due diligence teams

 

 

Good job of managing leverage & liquidity

 

 

Limited exposure to structured notes & SIVs

 

 

Experienced some issues in enhanced cash in 2008

Credit Risk – Manage the Credit Book with an Appropriate Degree of Risk

 

 

Strong credit group

 

 

Rarely lend with only one way out

 

 

Limited margin lending

 

 

Strong credit quality

 

     JPM PB  

NPA ratio

   0.35 %

NCO ratio

   0.03 %

ALL / total loans

   0.53 %

Operational Risk – Risk of Errors

 

 

Continuous focus on managing errors and managing to client guidelines

 

 

Number of errors from 2006 to 2008 declined 48%

 

LOGO    5


Conclusions

ASSET MANAGEMENT

 

 

 

 

Despite a very challenging year, the business performed well making strong gains in Private Banking and Cash

 

 

Our culture of strong risk management and putting our clients first enabled us to avoid many of the issues our competitors faced

 

 

We are encouraged by how our Investment Teams are positioned for the year

 

 

2009 is expected to continue to produce challenges; however, there are signs of stability returning to the credit markets

 

 

Most important measure in 2009 is whether our clients return to earning positive returns in their portfolios

 

LOGO    6


FEBRUARY 26, 2009

INVESTMENT BANK

 

 

Steve Black, Investment Bank Co-Chief Executive Officer

 

LOGO   


2008 IB financial performance

INVESTMENT BANK

 

 

($ in millions)

 

                 O/(U)2007  
     2008     2007     $     %  

Revenue

   $ 12,214     $ 18,170     $ (5,956 )   (33 )%

Investment banking fees

     5,907       6,616       (709 )   (11 )

Fixed income markets

     1,957       6,339       (4,382 )   (69 )

Equity markets

     3,611       3,903       (292 )   (7 )

Credit portfolio

     739       1,312       (573 )   (44 )

Credit costs

     2,015       654       1,361     208  

Expense

     13,844       13,074       770     6 %

Net income

   $ (1,175 )   $ 3,139     $ (4,314 )   NM  

Key statistics1

        

ROE2

     (5 )%     15 %    

Comp/revenue

     63 %     44 %    

ALL/total loans

     4.71 %     2.14 %    

EOP equity ($B)

   $ 33     $ 21      

 

1

Actual numbers for all periods, not over/(under)

2

Calculated based on average equity

2008 Summary

 

 

Strength of client franchise

 

   

#1 IB fees with substantial market share gains

 

   

Record revenue in Rates and Currencies, Credit Trading, Commodities and Emerging Markets

 

   

Flight to quality

 

 

‘Open for business’ with ability to enter into large distressed trades

 

 

Substantial de-risking achieved in highly illiquid markets

 

 

Without impact of the Bear Stearns merger, 2008 net income would have been modestly positive

 

 

Managed multiple, simultaneous credit events and record market volumes

 

 

Weak trading in Securitized Products, Equity Derivatives, Loan Trading, Principal Investments and Fixed Income Hybrids and Exotics

 

 

Marks of over ($10B) in mortgages and leveraged lending

 

LOGO    1


Key questions on your mind

INVESTMENT BANK

 

 

 

 

How much worse could it get from here? How prepared are you?

 

 

How has your revenue mix changed, and what revenue mix do you expect going forward?

 

 

How flexible is your expense base? What have you done and what can you still do?

 

 

How do you think about your returns, given lower leverage, higher capital and challenging markets?

 

 

What lessons have you learned from this crisis?

 

LOGO    2


J.P. Morgan competitive advantages

INVESTMENT BANK

 

 

 

 

Scale

 

 

Global client franchise

 

 

“Fortress” balance sheet

League Table Results

 

     2008     20071  
     Rank    Share     Rank    Share  

Global IB fees2

   #1    8.8 %   #1    7.2 %

Global M&A announced2

   #1    24.4 %   #4    18.7 %

Global debt, equity and equity-related3

   #1    9.7 %   #2    7.6 %

Global equity and equity-related3,4

   #1    11.8 %   #2    9.2 %

Global debt3

   #1    9.3 %   #2    7.2 %

Global loan syndications3

   #1    11.5 %   #1    12.8 %

 

Note: Rankings as of 12/31/08 for full year 2008 and full year 2007

 

1

2007 represents heritage JPM only

2

Source: Dealogic

3

Source: Thomson Reuters

4

Global Equity and Equity-related includes rights offerings

Major Awards

 

LOGO  

Bank of the Year

International Financing Review,

December 2008

LOGO  

Derivatives House of the Year

Bank Risk Manager of the Year

Risk, January 2009

LOGO  

Best Overall Investment Bank

Institutional Investor, December 2007

LOGO  

European Investment Bank of the Year

Financial News, December 2008

LOGO  

Greenwich Quality Leader

Greenwich Associates, December 2008

 

LOGO    3


Flight to quality

Strong client flows across businesses as JPM becomes counterparty of choice

INVESTMENT BANK

 

 

 

Prime Services   

•   Equity Prime Brokerage more than doubled the number of $1B+ AUM client relationships from June to December; strong forward-looking pipeline

  
  

 

•   On a market-adjusted basis, customer balances back to h-BSC peak levels

  

 

•   H-BSC contributed ~$500mm in revenue to Prime Services platform in 2008

Markets businesses   

•   Markets client revenue increased 40% YoY

  

 

•   Rates/FX: Client revenue up more than 60%; 170% growth in Asia

  

 

•   Commodities: Client revenue up over 75%

  

 

•   Credit trading: Client revenue up over 50%

  

 

•   Emerging markets: Client revenue up nearly 60%

  

 

•   FI Exotics and Hybrids: Client revenue up nearly 40%, reflecting client restructuring opportunities

  
  

 

•   Equity derivatives: Client revenue up nearly 20%

Advisory

and capital markets

  

•   #1 global FIG wallet share

  

 

•   Advised & led elephant acquisition financings in midst of credit crisis

 

LOGO    4


Radical change in IB business environment

INVESTMENT BANK

 

 

 

Major Events       JPM Action Plan
Competition   

 

•   End of broker dealer model

 

•   Industry consolidation

 

•   Capital bases under pressure; rapid deleveraging

   LOGO   

 

•   Continue to expand in Emerging markets, Commodities, Prime Services

 

•   Scale back in securitized products, structured credit and FI prime brokerage

 

•   Re-establish and redefine key markets

 

•   Invest in flow business technology and e-trading

 

•   Participate in centralized clearing for CDS

 

•   Opportunistically invest in distressed assets and recovery trades

 

•   Continue strong risk management practices

 

•   Re-allocate capital across businesses to maximize returns

 

•   Continue de-leveraging

 

•   Further align incentive structure with long-term returns on capital

        
        
        
  

•   Periods of volatility and illiquidity

 

•   Record volumes

 

•   Multiple, simultaneous credit events

     

Market

dynamics

        
        
Client   

•   Certain businesses experiencing permanent shrinkage

 

•   Hedge funds shrinking

 

•   Restructuring/risk mgmt focus

     
  

•   Greater government and regulatory oversight

 

•   Renewed focus on capital

 

•   Pressure on compensation

     
        
Regulation         
        
        

 

LOGO    5


Growth, discipline and people remain the core of our 2009 strategy

INVESTMENT BANK

 

 

 

Growth

 

Discipline

 

People

•   Build and invest in future growth

 

•   Manage capital and leverage

 

•   Maintain our culture

•   Remain client centered

 

•   Risk management

 

•   Attract and retain the best people

•   Maintain market share gains

 

•   Maintain strong controls

 

•   Develop our talent

•   Be a scale player

 

•   Cut expenses and improve productivity

 

•   Drive management accountability

•   Re-establish and redefine key markets

 

•   Build technology capabilities

 

LOGO

Capitalize on our position of relative strength in everything we do

 

LOGO    6


Growth — Fixed Income Markets

INVESTMENT BANK

 

 

2008 Achievements

 

 

Record revenue in Rates and FX, Emerging Markets and Credit Trading

 

   

Rates/FX revenue double the 2007 record

 

   

Record Russia and Middle East/North Africa revenue

 

   

Record Short-Term Fixed Income revenue

 

 

Client revenue up more than 50% across products

 

 

Leading market positions

 

 

 

#1 in Global Rate derivatives e-commerce1

 

 

 

#1 Emerging Markets - Fixed Income player2

 

 

Infrastructure capabilities tested and proven during record volumes

 

 

Increased client penetration in India, China, Korea, Taiwan and Malaysia markets

 

   

Additional product roll-outs

 

 

Relentless focus on expenses and risk management

 

LOGO  

#1 Rates overall

Best Emerging Markets IB

LOGO  

Best Credit Derivatives

House of the Year

2009 Priorities

 

 

Enhance top 3 Rates/FX house position

 

   

Enhance technology and e-trading capabilities

 

 

Maintain #1 position in Emerging Markets - Fixed Income and our Top 3 position in Emerging Markets - Equities and Corporate Finance

 

   

Strengthen local presence in priority markets: China, India, Brazil, Russia, Middle East/North Africa

 

   

Expand onshore products across Emerging Asia, including China securities presence

 

 

Expand principal investment activities

 

 

Selectively extend balance sheet in Emerging Asia

 

 

Maintain scale advantage

 

1. Source: Bloomberg, Tradeweb
2. Source: Coalition

 

LOGO    7


Growth — Commodities platform expansion

INVESTMENT BANK

 

 

2008 Progress

 

 

Record economic revenue in 2008

 

   

Client revenue up more than 75% YoY

 

 

Emerged as a complete scale player

 

   

Significantly expanded physical platform

 

   

Broader and deeper client franchise

 

   

Greater origination capabilities

 

   

Principal investment expertise

 

 

Integrated Bear Energy and ClimateCare acquisitions

 

 

Organically built out Global Oil and Environmental markets capabilities

 

 

Expanded in Europe and Asia

 

 

Hired new talent

 

LOGO   Structured Products House of the Year

2009 Priorities

 

 

Integrate UBS’ Canadian and Agricultural business (closed January 2009)

 

 

Become Top 3 player globally

 

   

Gain market share and attract talent while others divest

 

   

Leverage JPM’s firmwide client franchise (Global Sales teams, Commercial Banking and Private Bank) to offer more commodity and structured products to corporate and investor clients

 

 

Expand principal investing

 

 

Build out physical capabilities in Asia

 

LOGO    8


Growth — Prime Services

INVESTMENT BANK

 

 

2008 Progress

 

 

Successfully integrated activities across institutions

 

 

Record growth in clients and revenue

 

   

BSC contributed ~$500mm in revenue in 2008

 

   

Doubled the number of $1B+ AUM clients from June to December

 

   

Customer balances back up to h-BSC peak levels on a market-adjusted basis

 

 

 

4th year of double-digit F&O revenue growth

Client Equity ($ in billions)

LOGO

 

LOGO    Best in Class in OTC, Derivatives, Prime Brokerage

2009 Priorities

 

 

Align Prime Services across 2 themes:

 

   

Securities Prime Brokerage & Finance

 

   

Futures & Options and OTC Clearing

 

 

Expand Prime Brokerage internationally

 

 

Concentrate on $1B+ client relationships

 

 

Make significant investments in technology across the platform

 

 

Track regulatory developments in hedge fund industry

 

 

Maintain focus on risk and balance sheet management

 

LOGO    9


Growth — capitalizing on the firmwide platform

INVESTMENT BANK

 

 

IB Net Revenue Share ($ in millions)

LOGO

 

 

CB: Gross IB revenue from CB clients of $966mm

 

   

21% CAGR since 2005

 

   

Target of $1B now reached

 

 

T&SS: FX revenue from T&SS cross-sell up 59% YoY

 

 

Global Corporate Banking JV between IB and T&SS posted 15% YoY revenue growth

 

   

Double-digit revenue growth

 

   

Strong global pipeline

 

 

Asset Management/Private Bank: Although revenue share marginally down YoY, strong collaboration continues with:

 

   

IB Referrals to Private Bank/Private Wealth Management up 18% YoY

 

   

Benefit from BSC merger

 

LOGO    10


Discipline — strong progress since the Bear Stearns merger

INVESTMENT BANK

 

 

Gross Assets ($ in billions)

LOGO

Basel I RWA ($ in billions)

LOGO

Adjusted Assets ($ in billions)

LOGO

 

 

$33B of allocated capital

 

 

IB TCE to total assets ratio is at high end of peers’ IB segments

Note: 1Q08 asset tables represents average h-JPM balances plus March month end balance for h-BSC; 2Q08 pro forma asset tables represents averages for both h-JPM and h-BSC; Basel I RWA includes estimate of BSC at 3/31/08

 

LOGO    11


Discipline — meaningful reduction in exposure

INVESTMENT BANK

 

 

2008 Exposure Reduction ($ in billions)

LOGO

Exposure ($ in billions)

 

     Combined               
     12/31/07    3/31/08    6/30/08    9/30/08    12/31/08

Leveraged Lending, Market Value

   $ 24.5    $ 21.9    $ 12.9    $ 9.1    $ 6.9

Mortgage-related

     48.2      41.7      33.0      18.6      14.7
                                  

Total

   $ 72.7    $ 63.6    $ 45.9    $ 27.7    $ 21.6
                                  

Note: 2007 exposure represents h-JPM exposure at 12/31/07 combined with Bear Stearns exposure at merger. Leveraged loan exposure shown represents market value

 

LOGO    12


Credit risk management overview

INVESTMENT BANK

 

 

 

    LOGO
   

Bank Risk Manager of the Year

Risk, January 2009

Credit Process

LOGO

 

LOGO    13


Portfolio is largely investment grade and well-diversified

IB traditional credit exposure of $325B was 26% drawn at year end 2008

INVESTMENT BANK

 

 

Credit Rating

LOGO

Maturity Profile

LOGO

Sector Diversification

LOGO

 

LOGO    14


Level-setting 2008 loan portfolio measures

INVESTMENT BANK

 

 

 

 

IB credit metrics show some weakening but remain below historical peaks with a strong allowance coverage ratio

Average IB Loans ($ in billions)

LOGO

Nonperforming Loans ($ in millions)

LOGO

Credit Costs ($ in millions)

LOGO

Allowance Coverage Ratio (%)

LOGO

Note: Loan balances for 2000-2002 are presented on a combined basis for JPM IB loans and Bank One Corporate Banking loans ex. Commercial Real Estate loans; prior to 2002, HTM/HFS loan split was not available. 2002 credit costs are pro forma for Bank One. Nonperforming loans and allowance coverage ratio for 2000-2002 and Credit Costs for 2000-2001 represent h-JPM only for commercial loans. Loan balance, Credit Costs, NPLs and allowance ratio for 2003-2004 are pro forma for Bank One.

 

LOGO    15


Financial performance target

INVESTMENT BANK

 

 

 

 

Continue to have an industry-leading ROE

 

   

Stretch target of 20% ROE through the cycle

 

   

Normalized 2008 ROE in the mid-teens

 

 

Acknowledge difficulty to achieve in near-term; longer-term plan to get there by:

 

   

Maintaining market share gains

 

   

Investing in top growth initiatives

 

   

De-leveraging and reducing capital over time

 

 

Capital base of $33B driven by current market conditions and convergence of economic and Basel II capital models

 

 

Reduced ROE volatility would also be valued by shareholders

 

LOGO    16


What can you expect from J.P. Morgan’s Investment Bank?

INVESTMENT BANK

 

 

 

 

Leading market share achieved through client focus

 

 

Investment in growth — e.g., Commodities, Emerging Markets, Prime Services, and Principal Investments

 

 

Opportunistic investing driven by market conditions

 

 

Disciplined approach to capital, expenses and headcount

 

   

Ensure we are sized appropriately

 

 

Conservative approach to risk management, credit reserving and valuation

 

 

Complete Bear Stearns integration and achieve additional noncomp expense benefits

 

   

Technology, infrastructure

 

 

Strive for industry-leading ROE

 

LOGO    17


FEBRUARY 26 , 2009

DERIVATIVES

Bill Winters, Investment Bank Co-Chief Executive Officer

 

LOGO   


Agenda

DERIVATIVES

 

 

 

     Page
Derivatives at JPM    1

 

 

Questions we will try to answer

 

 

How important are derivatives to JPM?

 

 

How does JPM manage risks associated with our derivative activities?

 

 

What key themes are emerging in the changing derivatives landscape?

 

Some detail on current myths and misconceptions    27

 

LOGO    1


Derivatives are widely used by 90% of large companies

DERIVATIVES AT JPM

 

 

 

What do we mean

when we say

derivatives?

 

•   “A contract whose value is based upon the performance of an underlying financial asset, index, or other investment.” ~ Barron’s Dictionary of Finance and Investment Terms

 

 

•   Derivatives are commonplace and generally standardized products referencing major markets like USD interest rates, FX rates, corporate credit indexes or commodity prices

Who uses derivatives?  

•   Large corporations (>$2B in sales) are highly dependent on OTC FX and interest rate derivatives. 66% used FX hedges and 45% used rate hedges1. Mid-size corporations are similarly active

 

 

•   Extensive use by Governments, Agencies and Supranationals both to manage risk and lower the cost of capital

 

 

•   Derivative dealers and asset managers use derivatives as risk hedging tools and as part of market making activity

What are derivatives

used for?

 

•   Allow companies to mitigate volatility in non-core activities, such as changes in FX rates and interest rates

 

 

•   Allow companies to reduce their cost of capital

 

 

•   Allow investors to gain specific exposure profiles to suit their investment objectives and risk tolerances

 

 

•   Client problems range from simple to complex; derivative solutions can come in many forms: flow or exotic in various asset classes

 

1

Per 2009 Greenwich Associates survey

 

LOGO    2


Derivatives have many uses but we can simplify down to four categories

DERIVATIVES AT JPM

 

 

 

   Risk Management    Defensive Investing    Leveraged Investing    Professional / Liquidity
Overview    Derivatives mitigate or transform clients’ exposures to interest rates, currencies, etc.    Derivatives are used to make investments which provide the opportunity for gains while protecting from loss (e.g., capital protection)    Derivatives are used to provide leveraged returns on invested capital - both upside and downside    Trading between dealers and other dealers or other professionals to distribute risk to the market

Typical

clients

  

•   Clients with specific business need

 

•   Corporations

 

•   Financial institutions

 

•   Governments

  

•   Investor clients

 

•   Asset managers

 

•   Pension funds

 

•   High Net Worth investors (via distributors)

  

•   Investor clients

 

•   Hedge funds

 

•   Asset managers

 

•   Prop traders

  

•   Other broker/dealers

Example

products

  

•   FX forwards

 

•   Interest Rate Swaps

 

•   Credit Default Swaps

 

•   Deal contingent customized payouts

  

•   Collars

 

•   Principal protected structured notes

  

•   Options (uncovered)

 

•   Swaps

 

•   Binary payouts

 

•   Correlation trades

  

•   All flow products

 

•   Structured products

Demand

outlook1

   LOGO    LOGO    LOGO    LOGO

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LOGO    3


Derivative products generate a meaningful part of JPM’s revenue and profits

DERIVATIVES AT JPM

 

 

2006-2008 JPM Firmwide Revenue

LOGO

Source: Average revenue 2006-2008

2006-2008 Derivative Revenue by Client Sector

LOGO

Source: Average client revenue 2006-2008

2006-2008 Derivative Revenue by Asset Class

LOGO

Source: Average revenue 2006-2008:

2006-2008 Derivative Revenue by Client Credit Rating

LOGO

Source: Average client revenue 2006-2008

 

LOGO    4


Derivatives are also a core component of JPM’s RWA, economic capital and balance sheet

DERIVATIVES AT JPM

 

 

FY 2008 JPM Firmwide Risk Weighted Assets

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Source: Average quarterly RWA

FY 2008 JPM Firmwide Assets

LOGO

Source: Average daily 3rd party assets

FY 2008 Derivative Receivables by Duration

LOGO

Source: Average quarterly gross receivables

 

LOGO    5


JPM is one of the significant dealers in derivatives

DERIVATIVES AT JPM

 

 

Trading Assets - Derivatives Net Receivables ($ in billions)

LOGO

LOGO

 

Source: Firms 10-Q/10-K/6-K; DB 4Q Investor presentation US GAAP equivalent

Note: Net of Fin 39 netting and cash collateral; End of period balances

 

1

Significant 2008 increase due to impact of BSC, $18B at the end of May 2008

2

DB derivatives net receivables on US GAAP pro forma - €107B for 3Q08

 

LOGO    6


JPM manages the risks associated with derivatives along six dimensions

DERIVATIVES AT JPM

 

 

 

1  

 

Market

   Exposure to an adverse change in the market value of financial instruments caused by a change in market prices or rates
2  

 

Counterparty Credit

   A counterparty’s inability to make payments or otherwise perform under its contracts with JPM leading to direct credit exposure as well as open market risk positions
3  

 

Operational

   Operational errors, omissions and processing backlogs, resulting in financial loss
4  

 

Liquidity

   Liquidity calls arising from a credit downgrade, counterparty defaults or through mismatched cash flows
5  

 

Legal

   Risk that contractual terms will be unenforceable, including due to suitability issues or other claims by the counterparty
6  

 

Reputational

   Risk to JPM’s reputation because of its association with a transaction that is perceived to reflect inappropriate accounting, tax positions or regulatory arbitrage by our counterparty or mis-selling on the part of JPM

 

LOGO    7


1

JPM uses six core tools to measure and manage market risk

DERIVATIVES AT JPM

 

 

 

Stress testing  

•   Large number of stresses across all asset classes

 

•   Combined in many ways to search for vulnerabilities

 

•   Useful for understanding non-linear exposures

VaR  

•   Potential loss from simulated historical market moves based on worst days over the last year

 

•   Useful for understanding risks within a range

Sensitivities to market variables  

•   Sensitivities to a wide spectrum of risk parameters

 

•   Aggregation of key sensitivities enables early identification of concentrated positions

 

•   Useful complement to VaR and stress testing

Risk Identification for Large Exposures (RIFLEs)  

•   Identification of potential losses arising from idiosyncratic events (e.g. unexpected tax legislation, change in law)

 

•   Scenarios developed by independent risk functions as well as business – self assessment

P&L drawdown  

•   Losses from P&L drawdowns by business and sub-business monitored daily and subjected to limits

 

•   Useful in early identification of problems

Risk-adjusted return  

•   New and existing products or trade opportunities reviewed to understand risk-adjusted returns to ensure they meet appropriate hurdles

 

•   Many of the problems we avoided were caught by these analyses

 

LOGO    8


Stress Testing Deeper Dive: focus on JPM’s dealer exit scenario

DERIVATIVES AT JPM

 

 

 

 

We have deliberately constrained our trading books to reduce the potential financial risk identified by our Dealer Exit scenario

 

 

This estimates the impact on the market price of certain derivatives following the exit of a large market participant (e.g. dealer or hedge fund)

 

 

Focused historically on the structured and exotic risk books where dealers tend to share position concentrations. Extended to include other less liquid positions thought to be commonly held

 

 

These market risk scenarios are incorporated within firmwide stress analyses and measured against limits

 

 

We have an additional process for measuring contingent market risks to potential counterparty failure. Quantifies re-hedging needs by asset class and business, highlighting concentrated exposures that are likely to move against us in the event of a dealer exit (Wrong-Way Risk)

 

 

Connected process to ensure operational risk from counterparty default is appropriately managed

 

LOGO    9


JPM’s risk management has proven to be robust and critical to avoiding the largest issues to date

DERIVATIVES AT JPM

 

 

 

   Structured Investment Vehicles (SIV)    ABS Super Senior
Issues   

•   SIV sponsor banks provided liquidity back-stops to their SIV’s, effectively transferring the risk back to the bank in falling markets

 

•   Fees for back-stops were not sufficient to compensate for risks

 

•   Sponsoring SIV’s carried reputation risks that induced banks to consolidate and bail out their funds

  

•   ABS Super Senior structures presented true tail risk

 

•   Such risks are difficult to hedge and losses can ramp up very quickly

 

•   Market initially under-priced risks inherent in the structures

 

•   High volume of deal flow created potential for concentrated risk positions

Lessons / Actions   

•   Detailed due diligence to avoid transactions with low returns and potential of outsize losses (low return/fat tail)

 

•   Appropriate limits set to avoid risk concentrations

 

•   Avoided material loss as a result of limits, diligence and return discipline

 

•   Treat sponsored funds and products as if they remain on our own balance sheet

 

LOGO    10


However, smaller losses did occur in specific areas

DERIVATIVES AT JPM

 

 

 

   Worst-Of Basket Options    Muni/Libor Spreads    Corporate Currency Hedges
Issues   

•   Options with payout based on the worst performing stock from a pre-selected basket

 

•   High exposure to correlation of price movements of stocks within the basket

 

•   Crowded trades - many dealers had similar positions, increasing hedge costs and exacerbating market movements

  

•   Exposure to the ratio of Muni to Libor rates through client-related transactions

 

•   Relationship of Muni and Libor spreads changed and unexpectedly traded through natural arbitrage levels

 

•   Counterparties to hedges had concentrated positions to Muni/Libor ratio leading to defaults and losses for JPM

  

•   Corporate clients undertaking sophisticated FX hedging strategies

 

•   High volatility in underlying currencies resulting in large P&L swings

 

•   Incomplete understanding of client motivation for trading strategy

 

•   Incomplete understanding of full size of client positions with other dealers

Lessons   

•   Reset limits to be more in line with risk characteristics of structures

 

•   Pricing changed to fully reflect all risks

  

•   Do not assume that natural price boundaries cannot be breached

 

•   Improve scenario analyses to capture potential for counterparty concentration

  

•   Insist on full understanding of client’s trading motivations and positions

 

•   Improve stress testing to capture breakdown of historically stable price relationships

 

LOGO    11


Some derivatives can be complex to value; these are disclosed as Level 3 assets in our financial statements

DERIVATIVES AT JPM

 

 

3Q08 Level 3 Assets as a Percentage of Total Assets

LOGO

($ in billions)

     C     MS     MER     JPM     GS     DB1     BAC  

Level 3 Assets

   173     78     61     145     68     130     71  

Level 3/TCE

   3.93 x   2.56 x   2.46 x   1.68 x   1.82 x   3.84 x   1.54 x

 

 

Valuations are typically derived using financial models or require illiquid/difficult to observe market data

 

 

Inherent uncertainties in such processes are managed through the use of Fair Value Adjustments (FVA)

 

 

Model review is also a key part of the overall risk and control framework for these products

 

Source: Company 3Q 10-Q/6-K

1

Deutsche Bank reports under IFRS, and is not directly comparable to the other US GAAP reporting firm; Level 3 assets are “held at fair value which are measured using valuation techniques with unobservable parameters”

 

LOGO    12


2

Measurement and mitigation of counterparty credit risk at JPM

DERIVATIVES AT JPM

 

 

Measure

 

 

Notional is a reference amount and not a good gauge of risk exposure

 

 

Mark-to-market exposure is the current value of a derivative contract and is a key measure

 

 

Other measures estimate future changes in exposure such as loan equivalent and near-worst-case exposure

Mitigate

 

 

Establish global counterparty-specific credit lines

 

 

Transactions with a single counterparty under a Master Netting Agreement are netted in case of default

 

 

Require counterparties to post collateral in most cases, offsetting losses if a counterparty defaults

 

 

Mark exposures to market and ‘reserve’ against possible credit losses based on expected exposure (Credit Valuation Adjustment or CVA)

 

 

Purchase hedges (CDS) from high quality counterparties to reduce risk where appropriate

 

 

In some cases, JPM has the ability to terminate early or call additional collateral should a counterparty’s credit deteriorate

 

LOGO    13


Notional outstanding measures gives a misleading picture of counterparty exposure

DERIVATIVES AT JPM

 

 

JPM Gross Derivative Counterparty Exposure in 4Q08

LOGO

 

 

Gross receivables measures current value of all transactions before taking account of netting

 

 

JPM can net its derivatives payables and receivables with a given counterparty, reducing the assets on its balance sheet and its counterparty credit exposure. We only assume netting works where we are highly confident based on law and precedent

 

LOGO    14


Through effective use of collateral, JPM reduces its counterparty exposure by almost half

DERIVATIVES AT JPM

 

 

JPM Net Derivative Counterparty Exposure in 4Q08 ($ in billions)

LOGO

 

 

85%+ of counterparties (including most financial institutions) are required to post collateral daily, reducing JPM’s credit risk, even in times of market volatility. We remain exposed to “gap risk” (i.e. sudden change in market value without ability to re-hedge) which we monitor and limit

 

 

Governments, Supranationals and some corporations are not typically collateralized

 

1

Other high quality includes low risk counterparties, including senior or preferred positions in special purpose entities

 

LOGO    15


Generic example of counterparty netting and collateral

DERIVATIVES AT JPM

 

 

Client Trades to Receivables Net of Cash Collateral

 

 

All client trades in this example are covered under an ISDA Master Agreement, allowing receivables and payables to offset

LOGO

 

 

Cash collateral

 

   

Cash balances held at JPM

 

   

No haircut applied to cash $100 of cash collateral reduces net receivables by $100

 

 

Non-cash collateral

 

   

Highly liquid, marketable securities

 

   

Almost exclusively G7 Government securities and Agency securities

 

   

Haircut applied (1-25%+)

 

   

A 10% haircut means that $100 of collateral reduces net receivables by $90

 

LOGO    16


Specific example client netting and collateral

DERIVATIVES AT JPM

 

 

Example Client JPM Gross Derivative Counterparty Exposure in 4Q08 ($ in millions)

LOGO

 

 

Large, very high quality counterparty with diverse trade profile

 

 

Fully collateralized with significant netting benefits

 

 

Additional CVA reserve $1.3mm (zero current exposure but reserve protects against changes before new collateral is posted)

 

1

Derivatives receivables cannot be less than $0; ($1mm) reflects over collateralization from client

 

LOGO    17


JPM’s counterparty credit risk is concentrated with investment grade clients and hedge fund exposure is more than fully collateralized

DERIVATIVES AT JPM

 

 

JPM Investment Bank Credit Exposure

LOGO

Source: Non Deriv = Total Traditional Credit Product, Deriv = Gross MTM as of Dec 31, 2008

Derivative Exposure by Client Credit Rating

LOGO

Source: Gross MTM as of Dec 31, 2008

Derivative Exposure by Client Sector

LOGO

Source: Gross MTM as of Dec 31, 2008

Top Hedge Fund Clients by Derivative Receivables ($mm)

 

Client

   Net
receivables
   Collateral
posted
   Net
exposure
 

Hedge fund A

   $ 1,408    $ 2,503    $ (1,095 )

Hedge fund B

     245      333      (88 )

Hedge fund C

     180      251      (71 )

Hedge fund D

     155      221      (66 )

Hedge fund E

   $ 150    $ 358    $ (208 )

Total

   $ 2,138    $ 3,666    $ (1,528 )

All Hedge funds

   $ 9,555    $ 15,776    $ (6,221 )

Note: Negative net exposure reflects over-collateralized counterparties

Source: As of Dec 31, 2008

 

LOGO    18


JPM utilizes credit valuation adjustment (CVA) to ‘reserve’ against counterparty credit losses from derivatives, with significant strengthening of ‘reserves’ in 2008

DERIVATIVES AT JPM

 

 

Counterparty Risk Reserve ($ in billions)

LOGO

 

 

CVA increased because:

 

   

Large increases in transaction mark-to-market values resulting in more counterparty credit exposure

 

   

Counterparty credit spreads widened

 

   

Underlying volatility increased, increasing expected future credit exposure

 

LOGO    19


CVA sensitivities: CVA increases as deals become more in the money and as counterparty credit spreads widen

DERIVATIVES AT JPM

 

 

CVA Example with an A+ Rated Counterparty ($ in millions)

LOGO

 

 

Client positions

 

   

Client trades did not change Dec 07 to Dec 08

 

   

2 USD interest rate swaps, one 5 yr and one 8 yr

 

 

The large increase in CVA, in this case, is mostly driven by the large credit spread widening

 

1

5 year CDS spread

 

LOGO    20


3

JPM maintains robust operational risk management to cope with increasing volumes

DERIVATIVES AT JPM

 

 

Key Operational Metrics ($ in thousands)

LOGO

Source: 2002-2006 Zyen survey, 2007-2008 JPM internal reporting

 

1

Assumes recorded errors reference trades processed in given year

Operational Risk Management

 

 

Rapid growth in trade volumes has outpaced industry investment in operational infrastructure, driving:

 

   

Confirmation backlogs

 

   

Operational errors

 

 

Increased pressure on JPM operational environment

 

   

Credit events and bankruptcies

 

   

Volatile market conditions

 

   

Bear Stearns integration

 

 

Error levels improved from 2002 to 2008 on a relative basis from 0.13% to 0.009% of total trade volumes

 

 

Significant number of credit events (12) in 2008

 

   

221,977 additional cash flows processed through JPM systems

 

   

Already 7 credit events in the first two months of 2009, well within JPM’s processing capacity

 

 

BSC integration added approximately 300k (external) transactions to JPM’s books (30% increase to JPM’s external book) as of March 2008

 

LOGO    21


JPM continues to be a leader in processing OTC confirmations

DERIVATIVES AT JPM

 

 

Total Industry Monthly Confirmable Trade Volume

LOGO

 

 

From Jan 2008 to Jan 2009:

 

   

Total industry confirmation volume        i   7%

 

   

JPM confirmation volume                       h 46%

 

 

Despite increased market share and the Bear Stearns integration, JPM is again outperforming

Source: Markit monthly data

 

LOGO    22


4

Liquidity risk

DERIVATIVES AT JPM

 

 

Derivative Liquidity Risk: Two Common Examples

Credit Rating Downgrade

 

 

The impact of a single-notch ratings downgrade to JPMorgan Chase Bank, N.A., from its rating of “AA-” to “A+” at December 31, 2008, would have required $2.2 billion of additional collateral to be posted by the Firm. A downgrade to BBB- would increase the collateral callable to $6.4B

Mismatched cash flows

 

 

Some contracts have receipts and payments of cash occurring at different points over the life of the trade, with the potential to cause liquidity drains at key times.

This is tracked

 

LOGO    23


5/6

Legal and reputational risk

DERIVATIVES AT JPM

 

 

Legal Risk

In-depth internal legal review of new or non-standard contracts or counterparties

 

 

Due diligence performed on counterparties’ power and authority to enter into the derivative contract

 

 

Normally governed under New York or English law and submitted to relevant courts for disputes

Reputational Risk

Robust Reputation Risk Management process

 

 

Transactions may be triggered for further review for several reasons:

 

   

Nature of transaction - complex, risky, tax or accounting motivation etc.

 

   

Profitability - overly high or low

 

   

Unusual legal jurisdiction

 

   

Other relevant factors

 

 

Such reviews are conducted by our Reputation Risk Committee

 

   

Comprised of senior risk and control officers of the firm along with senior business leaders (providing a peer review)

 

   

Final approval for such transactions is provided by this group

 

LOGO    24


The derivatives landscape is changing; several key themes are emerging (1 of 2)

DERIVATIVES AT JPM

 

 

 

Proposition

  

Thesis

  

JPM View

All derivatives should be traded on exchanges   

•   Exchanges improve the transparency of prices, open interest and operational ease of processing contracts

 

•   Exchanges are more easily regulated and impose mechanisms to ensure orderly trading (e.g. circuit breakers)

  

•   Most liquid and transparent markets are not on exchanges (FX, US Treasuries, etc.)

 

•   OTC markets allow precise transfer of risk tailored to clients’ requirements, unachievable through standardized exchanges

 

•   Exchange margin requirements are not appropriate for some clients–set to lowest-quality participant

 

•   Existing OTC products on exchanges are rarely used by clients (e.g. interest rates swaps on CME)

 

•   OTC markets provide an effective “incubator” function for developing new markets and products

 

•   OTC markets often offer lower execution cost

All derivatives should settle though a clearing house   

•   A clearing house decreases the systemic risk from a counterparty failure

  

•   JPM and other key derivative market players strongly support a clearing house for highly standardized and highly liquid derivatives

 

•   Automates trade confirmation and current process of netting between largest derivatives dealers

 

•   Counterparty risk becomes an extremely unlikely (but possible) event - default of the clearing house

 

•   Bilateral clearing works very well for non-standard contracts that clearing houses cannot accommodate

 

LOGO    25


The derivatives landscape is changing; several key themes are emerging (2 of 2)

DERIVATIVES AT JPM

 

 

 

Proposition / Issue

  

Thesis

  

JPM View

Growing volume of derivatives has become too large to manage and should be limited   

•   The OTC Derivatives market has grown rapidly in recent years

 

•   Each contract requires bilateral negotiation and confirmation

 

•   Greatly increased cash flow processing, particularly on key payment dates (e.g. quarterly settlement of CDS contracts)

  

•   Continuing efforts to reduce number of outstanding trades:

 

•   Industry CDS notional reduced from $60T to $28T in 2008

 

•   Bilateral unwinds or multilateral tear-ups

 

•   Industry aged outstanding confirmations down 61% over the last 12 months

 

•   Progress towards automation of confirmation process

Credit event processing operationally overwhelmed the derivatives industry   

•   Prior to 2008 there had been few significant credit events, while the volumes of CDS contracts grew exponentially

 

•   Investment in operational infrastructure did not keep pace with this growth

  

•   12 major credit events in 2008; 7 in the first two months of 2009, with more likely

 

•   The recent large upswing in credit events has shown that the industry has coped well

 

•   ISDA auction mechanism worked in all cases and the industry and regulators are working together to drive down processing times and other backlogs

Short CDS selling should be banned   

•   Aggressively shorting certain names through CDS can rapidly increase the funding cost of the underlying borrower and increase the chance of financial distress or bankruptcy

  

•   ‘Shorting’ in the CDS market is the only way to hedge counterparty credit risk though a liquid financial instrument in an efficiently priced market

 

•   CDS market provides valuable price discovery function for the credit markets

 

•   Market manipulation should be prevented in every market, including CDS

 

LOGO    26


Agenda

DERIVATIVES

 

 

 

     Page
Derivatives at JPM    1
Some detail on current myths and misconceptions    27

 

 

Could the CDS market withstand a credit event on major dealers?: Case study of the Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. (“LEH”) default

 

 

Were credit derivatives responsible for the fate of American International Group, Inc. (“AIG”)?

 

 

What are the benefits of derivatives?

 

LOGO    27


Could the CDS market withstand a credit event on a major dealer?

Case study of the LEH default

SOME DETAIL ON CURRENT MYTHS AND MISCONCEPTIONS

 

 

Details Around CDS Referencing LEH

 

 

Pre-auction market speculation on the outstanding CDS referencing LEH grossly overestimated net payments by sellers of CDS protection

 

 

Payments from sellers of CDS protection were a fraction of the estimated $101B in value destruction for LEH bondholders

 

 

CDS on LEH successfully settled less than 6 weeks after the bankruptcy filing, through the DTCC auction, also helped by the high levels of collateralization in the market

LOGO

Note: LEH senior bonds assume 8.625% recovery rate; LEH gross CDS notional and CDS losses (91.375% of notional paid) per DTCC summary of CDS auction

 

LOGO    28


Top five recent bankruptcies show that payments from sellers of CDS protection are far less than bondholder losses

SOME DETAIL ON CURRENT MYTHS AND MISCONCEPTIONS

 

 

Recent Bankruptcy Bond Loss Versus Payments from Sellers of CDS Protection ($ in billions)

LOGO

 

 

Recent bankruptcies have illustrated that the payments from sellers of CDS protection are far less than the losses to senior bond holders

 

 

Notional outstanding grossly overstates the net market position

Sources: Senior bonds outstanding: J.P. Morgan Research; CDS outstanding: DTCC auction data; Bond/CDS recovery rates: DTCC auction data

 

Note: Icelandic banks include Landsbanki, Glitnir and Kaupthing; bondholder losses assume recovery rate achieved in CDS auction; LyondellBasell includes bank loan; Tribune includes all senior unsecured debt, including bridge facility

1

Washington Mutual refers to Washington Mutual Inc.

 

LOGO    29


Were credit derivatives responsible for the fate of AIG?

SOME DETAIL ON CURRENT MYTHS AND MISCONCEPTIONS

 

 

AIG Financial Products Notional and Losses from Credit Derivatives

LOGO

AIG Loss Drivers

 

 

AIG was a significant seller of protection on sub-prime mortgage-related asset- backed securities, including mortgage related CDOs

 

 

When the mortgage market experienced higher-than-expected losses, these positions experienced significant losses

 

 

This underestimation of mortgage defaults resulted in similar catastrophic losses in many banks through loans rather than derivatives (e.g. WaMu)

 

 

Material losses were incurred in an unregulated entity

 

 

External observers did not note (or were not able to note) increasing exposures

 

 

As losses emerged, the company faced a credit downgrade, triggering additional collateral calls

Source: AIG Credit Presentation; AIG Financial Products Super Senior CDS portfolio, data as of September 30, 2008; 10-Q/K

 

LOGO    30


Derivatives play a useful and necessary role in financial markets

SOME DETAIL ON CURRENT MYTHS AND MISCONCEPTIONS

 

 

Benefits of Derivatives

Necessary for Risk Management

 

 

The vast majority of large corporations use derivatives to manage non-core business risks (e.g. changes in FX rates, interest rates, changes in commodity prices)

 

   

Allows management to focus time on key business objectives

 

   

Reduces uncertainty in financial planning, capital management, and borrowing costs

Efficient and Cost Effective

 

 

Corporate credit derivatives are particularly efficient, as they are the most liquid instruments available to manage exposure to credit risk

 

 

Corporate credit derivatives enable lenders to hedge corporate credit risk, lowering the cost of capital for borrowers and freeing up greater lending capacity to drive the economy

 

 

The corporate CDS markets have remained more liquid than bond markets in recent stressed periods, providing a valuable price discovery mechanism for corporate credit

Necessary for effective investing and asset management

 

 

Derivatives allow investors and asset managers to take exposure to particular companies and markets with the ability to quickly change that exposure in a cost-effective way

 

 

Retirement and pension funds use derivatives to manage the risk associated with their liabilities

 

LOGO    31


In conclusion…

SOME DETAIL ON CURRENT MYTHS AND MISCONCEPTIONS

 

 

 

 

The derivatives industry continues to play an important role in capital markets and the overall economy for the foreseeable future

 

   

Clients will still need to manage risk

 

   

J.P. Morgan remains committed to its derivatives franchise

 

 

J.P. Morgan and the industry will continue their focus on managing the risks from derivatives

 

   

Continue to develop leading risk management framework and governance structure

 

   

Incorporate the recent lessons and continue to be a leader in managing risk

 

 

The industry landscape is changing and JPM is committed to help:

 

   

Improve transparency

 

   

Maintain discipline

 

   

Improve operational efficiency

 

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