EX-99.2 6 ex99-2.htm

 

Exhibit 99.2

 

KLS Petroleum Consulting LLC

3400 S. Broadway, Unit 100

Englewood, Colorado 80113

 

April 26, 2022

 

Mr. Frank C. Ingriselli

Chief Executive Officer

Trio Petroleum Corp.

5401 Business Park, Suite 115

Bakersfield, CA 93309

 

RE: S. Salinas Area, Full Development Reserves Supplement to SEC Report Dated 1-28-2022

 

Dear Mr. Ingriselli:

 

At the request of Trio Petroleum Corp., KLS Petroleum Consulting LLC (KLSP) has revised its South Salinas (Full Development) Reserve Report of October 25, 2021 to reflect updated costs used in the subject SEC Report, and to incorporate the SEC Report Phase 1 Development Project. Drilling and development costs were updated based on Trio AFE preparation, while the drilling schedule used in the Phase 1 Development Project was adopted because it reflects Trio’s planned capital deployment into the second quarter of 2024. The Phase 2 drilling schedule used herein reflects a Full Development Project that is intended to capture the reserve and value proposition that may be achieved with the larger capital commitment that could result from a successful Phase 1. The purpose of the report is for inclusion as an exhibit in a filing that Trio Petroleum intends to make with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. The reserves associated with the Full Development Project, and their determination, are consistent with definitions found in Rule 4-10 of SEC Regulation S-X (17 CFR part 210), and Subpart 1200 of Regulation S-K.

 

One other departure from the October 25, 2021 report is the exclusion of Proved Reserves. Proved Reserves were included in the 2021 report in accordance with the Petroleum Resources Management System which allows such assignment if there is evidence that requisite regulatory approval would be forthcoming. However, as a companion supplement to the subject SEC report the analysis and economics herein exclude Proved Reserves to be consistent with Part 210.4-10 in SEC Regulation S-X, which requires for Proved Reserves that project approval has been secured “by all necessary parties and entities, including government entities”. Otherwise, the work described herein was completed with issuance of this letter and report on April 26, 2022. It is the understanding of KLSP that the reserves covered in this report represent the entirety of Trio Petroleum Corp’s reserves. The assumptions, data, methods, and procedures used in this analysis are appropriate for the purpose served by the report. KLSP has used all methods and procedures it considered necessary under the circumstances to prepare this letter report.

 

As described in the SEC Report of January 28, 2022, Phase 1 uses existing exploration permits to drill three wells beginning in May 2022. Four additional wells will be drilled upon securing a Development Permit from Monterey County in October 2023. Trio’s total Phase 1 investment is 18.6 million dollars ($MM) and provides for work to secure regulatory permits and drill or recomplete seven (7) wells. Phase 2 (Full Development) begins July 2024 and employs $463.2 MM to drill 144 wells by the end of 2027 and install associated infrastructure. The number of wells reflects full leasehold development of the targeted Monterey productive intervals and areas using vertical wells on 40-acre spacing. The prospective Vaqueros Sand is developed using horizontal wells on 160-acre spacing (TABLE 1).

 

 
 

 

Full Development Reserves Supplement to S. Salinas SEC Report

April 26, 2022

 

 

 

The net reserves and revenues attributable to Trio Petroleum are summarized below by reserve category and Development Phase. Future net revenue and discounted present value are on a before federal income tax (BFIT) basis. Reserve volumes are expressed in thousands of stock tank barrels of oil (MSTB) and millions of standard cubic feet of gas (MMCF). The effective date of this report for purposes of reserve assignment and the discounting of future cash flows is October 31, 2021.

 

Reserve Category by Development Plan Phase 

Net Trio Oil Reserves

(MSTB)

 

Net Trio Gas Reserves

(MMCF)

 

Undiscounted Net Cash Flow,

Thousands $

 

Net Cash Flow Discounted at

10%, Thousands $

Probable Undeveloped (P2) - Phase 1

   1,975    2,022    95,573    28,194 
Probable Undeveloped (P2) –Phase 2 (Full Development)   37,021    37,941    1,748,621    379,401 

TOTAL Probable

Undeveloped

   38,996    39,964    1,844,194    407,595 
Possible Undeveloped (P3) – Phase 1   3,742    6,732    262,325    108,855 

Possible Undeveloped (P3) –

Phase 2 (Full Development)

   88,634    142,046    6,094,656    1,889,380 
TOTAL Possible Undeveloped (P3)   92,376    148,778    6,356,981    1,998,235 

 

TABLES 2 through 7 provide detailed economic output for each of the line-item reserves summarized above. TABLE 8 provides a list of nomenclature for the characterization of reserves used in this report. FIGURE 1 is a plot of forecast oil and gas production for the P2 (Probable) and 3P (Probable + Possible) cases. Working and net revenue interests were provided by Trio Petroleum and are 82.74853 percent and 66.19882 percent, respectively. The economic analysis used constant oil and gas prices equal to $65.99 per barrel of oil and $3.72 per MCF (million BTU) of gas. Since the reserves in this report are Undeveloped, these prices are not based on recent realized prices. Rather, these prices were determined using the average of appropriate first-of-month postings for the period November 1, 2020, to October 1, 2021. The oil posting was Chevron’s Buena Vista Hills crude having a 26-degree API oil gravity, while gas prices used a ten percent premium to Henry Hub based on industry experience in the Sacramento Basin just north of South Salinas.

 

The economic analysis includes additional capital to plug and abandon the wells, including surface location cleanup, according to guidelines specified by California Geologic Energy Management Division (CALGEM) regulations. Natural gas liquids will likely be derived from produced gas prior to sales, but neither the product revenue nor the cost associated with the extraction of the NGLs have been included in this analysis. The Full Development Phase 2 is completed by the end of 2027 with the use of three-to-four rigs drilling continuously. The well count may be reduced significantly if it is determined that horizontal and multilateral wells can be used to effectively develop the Monterey, and this may facilitate regulatory approval for the development. The technical summary below describes the data available, the characteristics of the targeted reservoirs, and the analyses used to determine reserves. The subject SEC report provides a detailed description of the geologic setting, reservoir characteristics and analog fields. It also details the technical reservoir engineering analysis including the numerical modeling (reservoir simulation) employed to arrive at a risked reserve assessment supporting the assignment of Probable and Possible reserves.

 

KLS Petroleum Consulting LLC Page 2
  

 

Full Development Reserves Supplement to S. Salinas SEC Report

April 26, 2022

 

 

 

Drilling, completion, and operating expenses are based on information provided by Trio Petroleum or estimated from industry analogs. Wells histories, geologic exhibits and analyzed logs were available from the files of Trio Petroleum for most of the wells that have been drilled in South Salinas. This information was supplemented as needed from WellDatabase, which is a subscription service that obtains information from the California Division of Oil & Gas. Other information relevant to the fields used as analogs to South Salinas was obtained from the files of KLSP.

 

Production histories of wells drilled in South Salinas have been limited to short periods of testing or production, so analogs and probabilistic methods were used to estimate reserves attributable to the development of South Salinas. The targeted Monterey Formation, a shale reservoir dominated by siliceous lithologies and exhibiting natural fracturing, has demonstrated oil productivity from numerous horizons over an interval of approximately 5000 feet. Oil gravities over this interval vary from about 21 to 38 degrees API. The analog fields used to support reserve estimates produce from the Monterey Formation and are very similar to South Salinas in depth, geology, reservoir characteristics, and oil properties. And in the case of the primary analog the structural setting is particularly analogous. Possible reserves are also assigned to the Vaqueros formation which lies just below the Monterey. The Vaqueros, which is a sandstone formation with some interbedded shales, has produced in many California fields having similar stratigraphic and structural settings as South Salinas. While geologic and engineering data indicates it is highly prospective at South Salinas it has been reached by only six wells, none of which tested the interval. For these reasons only Possible reserves have been assigned to the Vaqueros.

 

The completion histories for at least five of the wells drilled in South Salinas demonstrate commercial oil productivity over significant portions of the Monterey. However, these histories also record problems with poor cement jobs, liner hanger leaks, and downhole mechanical failures that have prevented operators from establishing sustained production. There is also evidence that cyclical drops in oil prices or inadequate capitalization influenced operator decisions to not complete necessary well remediation work and establish production facilities required for long term production.

 

Because decline curve analysis could not be used to forecast reserves, and since the development of type curves was problematic due to the early historical time frame in which the analog fields were developed, probabilistic methods were employed. The interpretations of open hole logs, core, and test information were used to describe ranges and distributions of key reservoir parameters. These were then input to numerical simulation models that used Monte Carlo sampling and hundreds of runs to derive forecasts of production and ultimate recovery representing P90 (1P), P50 (2P) and P10 (3P) reserve estimates. As indicated in the nomenclature of TABLE 8, these estimates are also known as Proved, Proved+Probable, and Proved+Probable+Possible, respectively. The designation ‘P50’ means there is a 50 percent probability that the actual production will exceed the value reported as the P50 reserves. The P50 value, also considered the Best or Most Likely estimate, is derived from a cumulative frequency distribution of forecast reserves from the Monte Carlo simulations. If Proved reserves have been assigned, Probable reserves are then represented by the difference between the P50 and P90 probabilistic estimates. However, as explained below, Proved reserves have not been assigned in this report because project approval has not been secured by all necessary government entities. Therefore, since there are no Proved or P90 volumes, the Probable reserves disclosed herein, derived from the P50 probabilistic forecasts, are incremental volumes and presented as Probable (P2) reserves. The P10 reserve estimate has a 10 percent probability of exceeding the estimated recovery and is also known as the High estimate. Possible reserves are represented by the difference between the P10 and P50 estimates. Possible reserves are typically larger than Probable reserves. This is the result of the key reservoir parameter distributions reflecting their variation in nature, and when the most favorable parameters are sampled together the resulting calculation provides the highest, but least likely, values of estimated recoveries.

 

KLS Petroleum Consulting LLC Page 3
  

 

Full Development Reserves Supplement to S. Salinas SEC Report

April 26, 2022

 

 

 

It is worth noting that while the use of hydraulic fracturing could possibly increase production rates and recoveries from the Monterey and Vaqueros formations, the forecasts derived herein reflect completion technologies that are currently allowed by the state of California, namely a modest acid treatment for “wellbore cleanout, maintenance and removal of formation damage”.

 

While Proved reserves have not been assigned in this report, there is Reasonable Certainty that the P90 forecasts of oil and gas production may be realized in four (4) of the 19 well locations of the Development Plan. These four locations are at or adjacent to previously drilled wells that have demonstrated the capability to produce at commercial rates of oil and gas. Furthermore, the P90 forecasts generate positive cumulative undiscounted cash flow with the costs and prices used in this report. Because almost all of Trio’s South Salinas leasehold is on a working ranch owned by a lessor who controls both surface and minerals and supports the Development Project, and because of Trio’s demonstrated ability to work with state and county officials to develop and produce oil fields in proximity to South Salinas, award of the Development Permit is considered a Reasonable Expectation. However, since this report is intended for use by Trio Petroleum in a filing with the SEC, the definition of Proved reserves is subject to Part 210.4-10 in SEC Regulation S-X, which requires that project approval has been secured “by all necessary parties and entities, including government entities”. As a result, Proved reserves have not been assigned in this report.

 

Probable reserves are assigned in certain areas where, as described above, reserves could be considered Proved if all regulatory approvals and permits were in place. Probable reserves are also assigned in areas where well control and interpretations of available data provide sufficient geologic evidence of reservoir continuity at structural positions above low known hydrocarbons (LKH), and where engineering evidence indicates the reservoir will have the requisite porosity, permeability, and oil saturation to produce commercial quantities of oil and gas. The assignment of Possible reserves does not incorporate a larger reservoir area, but rather Possible reserves are assigned to the same wells having Probable reserves because the probabilistic methods employed indicate there may be a greater percentage recovery of hydrocarbons than is appropriate for the ‘Most Likely’ reserve estimates.

 

STATEMENT OF RISK AND PREPARER INDEPENDENCE

 

It is KLSP’s opinion that the estimated reserves and other reserve information as specified in this report are reasonable and have been prepared in accordance with the generally accepted petroleum engineering and evaluation principles as set forth in the SEC regulations cited above, and the Petroleum Resources Management System (PRMS), promulgated by the Society of Petroleum Engineers (SPE). However, while these estimates are prepared with reasonable care, unforeseen changes in future well and field performance, the impact of offset drilling, changes in market or regulatory conditions and sale contracts, along with changes in operating conditions and associated costs may all impact the ability to recover the reserves estimated in this report and, subsequently, generate the estimated cash flow. As a result, any use of or reliance on this report needs to recognize such risks and uncertainty, and KLSP makes no warranties concerning the ability to realize the stated reserves or future estimated revenue in this report.

 

KLS Petroleum Consulting LLC Page 4
  

 

Full Development Reserves Supplement to S. Salinas SEC Report

April 26, 2022

 

 

 

Neither KLSP nor any of its subcontractors have any financial interest in the subject properties or in Trio Petroleum Corp., and neither the employment to conduct this study nor the compensation for this study was contingent on KLSP’s estimates of reserves and future income.

 

This report has been prepared by the undersigned, a Registered Professional Engineer in the states of Colorado (#24805) and Wyoming (#18407). The preparer has 40 years of experience as a petroleum engineer conducting reservoir engineering field studies and well analyses used to estimate reserves, perform economic analysis of forecast oil and gas volumes, and prepare reserve reports for privately held and publicly traded companies. The preparer has nearly 20 years of experience analyzing California oil and gas fields, many of which have geologic and reservoir characteristics like those of South Salinas.

 

It has been my pleasure to prepare this analysis for Trio Petroleum Corp. If you should have any questions concerning this analysis, please feel free to contact me at 303-908-5559, or Ken@kls-petroleum.com.

 

Very Truly Yours,

 

/s/ Kenneth L. Schuessler  

 

Kenneth L. Schuessler, P.E.

Managing Member

KLS Petroleum Consulting LLC

 

Attachments:

 

TABLE 1 S. Salinas Full Development Plan Drilling Schedule

TABLE 2 Economic Output for Phase 1 Probable (P2) Reserves

TABLE 3 Economic Output for Phase 2 (Full Development) Probable (P2) Reserves

TABLE 4 Economic Output for S. Salinas Total Probable (P2) Reserves

TABLE 5 Economic Output for Phase 1 Incremental Possible (P3) Reserves

TABLE 6 Economic Output for Phase 2 (Full Development) Incremental Possible (P3) Reserves

TABLE 7 Economic Output for Total Full Development Incremental Possible (P3) Reserves

TABLE 8 Glossary of Terms Used to Characterize Reserves & Projects

 

FIGURE 1 South Salinas Forecast Oil & Gas Production

 

KLS Petroleum Consulting LLC Page 5
  

 

Full Development Reserves Supplement to S. Salinas SEC Report

April 26, 2022

 

 

 

TABLE 1 S. Salinas Full Development Plan Drilling Schedule

 

 

KLS Petroleum Consulting LLC Page 6
  

 

Full Development Reserves Supplement to S. Salinas SEC Report

April 26, 2022

 

 

 

TABLE 2 Economic Output for Phase 1 Probable Undeveloped (P2) Reserves

 

 

KLS Petroleum Consulting LLC Page 7
  

 

Full Development Reserves Supplement to S. Salinas SEC Report

April 26, 2022

 

 

 

TABLE 3 Economic Output for Phase 2 (Full Development) Probable Undeveloped (P2) Reserves

 

 

KLS Petroleum Consulting LLC Page 8
  

 

Full Development Reserves Supplement to S. Salinas SEC Report

April 26, 2022

 

 

 

TABLE 4 Economic Output for S. Salinas Total Probable Undeveloped (P2) Reserves 

 

 

KLS Petroleum Consulting LLC Page 9
  

 

Full Development Reserves Supplement to S. Salinas SEC Report

April 26, 2022

 

 

 

TABLE 5 Economic Output for Phase 1 Possible (P3) Reserves 

 

 

KLS Petroleum Consulting LLC Page 10
  

 

Full Development Reserves Supplement to S. Salinas SEC Report

April 26, 2022

 

 

 

TABLE 6 Economic Output for Phase 2 (Full Development) Possible (P3) Reserves

 

 

KLS Petroleum Consulting LLC Page 11
  

 

Full Development Reserves Supplement to S. Salinas SEC Report

April 26, 2022

 

 

 

TABLE 7 Economic Output for Total Full Development Possible (P3) Reserves

 

 

KLS Petroleum Consulting LLC Page 12
  

 

Full Development Reserves Supplement to S. Salinas SEC Report

April 26, 2022

 

 

 

TABLE 8 Glossary of Terms Used to Characterize Reserves & Projects

 

 

KLS Petroleum Consulting LLC Page 13
  

 

Full Development Reserves Supplement to S. Salinas SEC Report

April 26, 2022

 

 

 

FIGURE 1 South Salinas Forecast Oil & Gas Production

 

 

KLS Petroleum Consulting LLC Page 14