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Regulatory Matters
6 Months Ended
Jun. 30, 2012
Regulatory Matters Disclosure [Line Items]  
Regulatory Matters

5.       REGULATORY MATTERS

On July 2, 2012, Progress Energy and Duke Energy consummated the previously announced merger. See Note 2 for regulatory information related to the merger with Duke Energy.

A.       PEC RETAIL RATE MATTERS

COST-RECOVERY FILINGS

On June 4, 2012, PEC filed with the NCUC for a $40 million decrease in the fuel rate charged to its North Carolina retail ratepayers, driven by declining natural gas prices. If approved, the decrease will be effective December 1, 2012, and will decrease residential electric bills by $1.31 per 1,000 kilowatt-hours (kWh) for fuel cost recovery. On June 4, 2012, PEC also filed for a $16 million increase in the demand-side management (DSM) and energy-efficiency (EE) rate charged to its North Carolina retail ratepayers which, if approved, will be effective December 1, 2012, and will increase the residential electric bills by $0.70 per 1,000 kWh for DSM and EE cost recovery. The net impact of the filings results in an average decrease in residential electric bills of 0.6 percent. We cannot predict the outcome of these matters.

On June 27, 2012, the PSCSC approved a $23 million decrease in the fuel rate charged to PEC's South Carolina ratepayers, driven by declining natural gas prices. The decrease was effective July 1, 2012, and decreased residential electric bills by $3.65 per 1,000 kWh. On May 23, 2012, the PSCSC approved a $5 million increase in the DSM and EE rate. The increase was effective July 1, 2012, and increased residential electric bills by $1.37 per 1,000 kWh. The net impact of the two filings resulted in an average decrease in residential electric bills of 2.3 percent.

OTHER MATTERS

PEC filed a plan with the NCUC and the PSCSC to retire all of its coal-fired generating facilities in North Carolina that do not have scrubbers. On October 1, 2011, PEC retired the Weatherspoon coal-fired generating units. PEC expects to retire the remaining coal-fired facilities by the end of 2013.

On July 27, 2012, PEC announced accelerated plans to retire the 316-MW Cape Fear coal-fired generating units, originally planned to be retired in 2013, and to retire the 177-MW H.B. Robinson Unit 1 coal-fired generating unit. These units will be retired on October 1, 2012. The Robinson retirement combined with the previously announced retirements total more than 1,600 MW at five sites in the Carolinas.

The net carrying value of the remaining facilities at June 30, 2012, of $212 million is included in other utility plant, net on the Consolidated Balance Sheets. PEC expects to continue to include the five facilities' remaining net carrying value in rate base after retirement. Consistent with ratemaking treatment, PEC will continue to depreciate each plant using the current depreciation lives and rates on file with the NCUC and the PSCSC until the earlier of the plant's retirement or PEC's completion and filing of a new depreciation study on or before March 31, 2013. The final recovery periods may change in connection with the regulators' determination of the recovery of the remaining net carrying value.

B.       PEF RETAIL RATE MATTERS

CR3 OUTAGE

In September 2009, Crystal River Nuclear Plant Unit 3 (CR3) began an outage for normal refueling and maintenance as well as an uprate project to increase its generating capability and to replace two steam generators. During preparations to replace the steam generators, workers discovered a delamination (or separation) within the concrete at the periphery of the containment building, which resulted in an extension of the outage. After analysis, PEF determined that the concrete delamination at CR3 was caused by redistribution of stresses in the containment wall that occurred when PEF created an opening to accommodate the replacement of the unit's steam generators. In March 2011, the work to return the plant to service was suspended after monitoring equipment at the repair site identified a new delamination that occurred in a different section of the outer wall after the repair work was completed and during the late stages of retensioning the containment building. CR3 has remained out of service while PEF conducted an engineering analysis and review of the new delamination and evaluated repair options. Subsequent to March 2011, monitoring equipment has detected additional changes and further damage in the partially tensioned containment building and additional cracking or delaminations could occur during the repair process.

PEF is analyzing the various aspects of the repair option as well as the option of early retirement. A number of factors could affect the decision to repair, the return-to-service date and repair costs incurred, including, but not limited to, state regulatory and NRC reviews, insurance recoveries from Nuclear Electric Insurance Limited (NEIL), the ability to obtain builder's risk insurance with appropriate coverage, final engineering designs, vendor contract negotiations, the ultimate work scope completion, performance testing, weather and the impact of new information discovered during additional testing and analysis.

Based on an analysis of possible repair options performed by outside engineering consultants, PEF selected an option, which would entail systematically removing and replacing concrete in substantial portions of the containment structure walls. The preliminary estimate of $900 million to $1.3 billion is currently under review and could change following completion of further detailed engineering studies, vendor negotiations and final risk assessments. These engineering studies and risk assessments include analyses by independent entities currently in progress. The risk assessment process includes analysis of events that, although currently deemed unlikely, could have a significant impact on the cost estimate or feasibility of repair. The cost range of the repair option, based on preliminary analysis, appears to be trending upward. PEF will update the current estimate as this effort is completed.

PEF has worked with two potential vendors for repair work and has received repair proposals from both vendors. After analyzing those proposals, PEF has selected a single vendor that PEF would engage to complete the repair of CR3 should the choice to repair CR3 be made. As a result of this selection, PEF recognized an $18 million expense for previously deferred costs associated with the non-selected vendor. These costs are included in O&M expense on our Statements of Comprehensive Income. See “2012 Settlement Agreement” for discussion of CR3 cost recovery and other provisions.

PEF maintains insurance coverage against incremental costs of replacement power resulting from prolonged accidental outages at CR3 through NEIL. NEIL provides insurance coverage for repair costs for covered events, as well as the cost of replacement power when the unit is out of service as a result of these events. Following a 12-week deductible period, the NEIL program provided reimbursement for replacement power costs for 52 weeks at $4.5 million per week, through April 9, 2011. An additional 71 weeks of coverage, which runs through August 2012, is provided at $3.6 million per week. Accordingly, the NEIL program provides replacement power coverage of up to $490 million per event. Actual replacement power costs have exceeded the insurance coverage through June 30, 2012. PEF anticipates that future replacement power costs will continue to exceed the insurance coverage. PEF also maintains insurance coverage through NEIL's accidental property damage program, which provides insurance coverage up to $2.25 billion with a $10 million deductible per claim.

PEF is continuing to work with NEIL for recovery of applicable repair costs and associated replacement power costs. NEIL has made payments on the first delamination; however, NEIL has withheld payment of approximately $70 million of replacement power cost claims and repair cost claims related to the first delamination event. NEIL has unresolved concerns and has not made any payments on the second delamination and has not provided a written coverage decision for either delamination. In addition, no replacement power reimbursements have been received from NEIL since May 2011. These considerations led us to conclude that it was not probable that NEIL will voluntarily pay the full coverage amounts we believe they owe under the applicable insurance policies. Consistent with the terms and procedures under the insurance coverage with NEIL, we have agreed to mediation prior to commencing any formal dispute resolution. We are in the process of providing information as requested by NEIL and currently have scheduled the mediation to commence in fourth quarter of 2012. Given the circumstances, accounting standards require full recovery to be probable to recognize an insurance receivable. Therefore, as of June 30, 2012, PEF has not recorded insurance receivables from NEIL related to either the first or second delamination. PEF continues to believe that all applicable costs associated with bringing CR3 back into service are covered under all insurance policies.

The following table summarizes the CR3 replacement power and repair costs and recovery through June 30, 2012:

(in millions)Replacement Power Costs Repair Costs
Spent to date$534$305
NEIL proceeds received to date (162) (143)
 Balance for recovery(a)$372$162
       
(a)  See "2012 Settlement Agreement" below for discussion of PEF's ability to recover prudently incurred fuel and purchased power costs and CR3 repair costs.
       

PEF believes the actions taken and costs incurred in response to the CR3 delaminations have been prudent and, accordingly, considers replacement power and capital costs not recoverable through insurance to be recoverable through its fuel cost-recovery clause or base rates. Additional replacement power costs and repair and maintenance costs incurred until CR3 is returned to service could be material. Additionally, we cannot be assured that CR3 can be repaired and brought back to service until full engineering and other analyses are completed.

2012 SETTLEMENT AGREEMENT

On February 22, 2012, the FPSC approved a comprehensive settlement agreement among PEF, the Florida Office of Public Counsel and other consumer advocates. The 2012 settlement agreement will continue through the last billing cycle of December 2016. The agreement addresses three principal matters: PEF's proposed Levy Nuclear Power Plant (Levy) Nuclear Project cost recovery, the CR3 delamination prudence review then pending before the FPSC, and certain base rate issues. When all of the settlement provisions are factored in, the total increase in 2013 for residential customer bills will be approximately $4.93 per 1,000 kWh, or 4 percent.

Levy

Under the terms of the 2012 settlement agreement, PEF will set the residential cost-recovery factor of PEF's proposed two units at Levy (see “Nuclear Cost Recovery – Levy Nuclear”) at $3.45 per 1,000 kWh effective in the first billing cycle of January 2013 and continuing for a five-year period. PEF will not recover any additional Levy costs from customers through the term of the agreement, or file for any additional recovery before March 1, 2017, unless otherwise agreed to by the parties to the agreement. This amount is intended to recover the estimated retail project costs to date plus costs necessary to obtain the combined license (COL) and any engineering, procurement and construction (EPC) cancellation costs, if PEF ultimately chooses to cancel that contract. In addition, the consumer parties will not oppose PEF continuing to pursue a COL for Levy. After the five-year period, PEF will true up any actual costs not recovered under the Levy cost-recovery factor.

The 2012 settlement agreement also provides that PEF will treat the allocated wholesale cost of Levy (approximately $60 million) as a retail regulatory asset and include this asset as a component of rate base and amortization expense for regulatory reporting. PEF will have the discretion to accelerate and/or suspend such amortization in full or in part provided that PEF amortizes all of the regulatory asset by December 31, 2016.

CR3

Under the terms of the 2012 settlement agreement, PEF will be permitted to recover prudently incurred fuel and purchased power costs through the fuel clause without regard for the absence of CR3 for the period from the beginning of the CR3 outage through the earlier of the return of CR3 to commercial service or December 31, 2016. If PEF does not begin repairs of CR3 prior to the end of 2012, PEF will refund replacement power costs on a pro rata basis based on the in-service date of up to $40 million in 2015 and $60 million in 2016. If PEF decides to retire and decommission CR3, PEF will refund $100 million of replacement power costs. However, in the event that repair activities continue beyond December 31, 2016, the parties are not prohibited from contesting PEF's right to recover replacement power costs incurred after 2016. The parties to the agreement maintain the right to challenge the prudence and reasonableness of PEF's fuel acquisition and power purchases, and other fuel prudence issues unrelated to the CR3 outage. All prudence issues from the steam generator project inception through the date of settlement approval by the FPSC are resolved.

To the extent that PEF pursues the repair of CR3, PEF will establish an estimated cost and repair schedule with ongoing consultation with the parties to the agreement. The established cost, to be approved by our board of directors, will be the basis for project measurement. If costs exceed the board-approved estimate, overruns will be split evenly between our shareholders and PEF customers up to $400 million. The parties to the agreement agree to discuss the method of recovery of any overruns in excess of $400 million, with final decision by the FPSC if resolution cannot be reached. If the repairs begin prior to the end of 2012, the parties to the agreement waive their rights to challenge PEF's decision to repair and the repair plan chosen by PEF. In addition, there will be limited rights to challenge recovery of the repair execution costs incurred prior to the final resolution on NEIL coverage. The parties to the agreement will discuss the treatment of any potential gap between NEIL repair coverage and the estimated cost, with final decision by the FPSC if resolution cannot be reached. If the repairs do not begin prior to the end of 2012, the parties to the agreement reserve the right to challenge the prudence of PEF's repair decision, plan and implementation. Efforts to resolve insurance coverage with NEIL could continue past December 31, 2012.

PEF also retains sole discretion and flexibility to retire the unit without challenge from the parties to the agreement. If PEF decides to retire CR3, PEF is allowed to recover all remaining CR3 investments and to earn a return on the CR3 investments set at its current authorized overall cost of capital, adjusted to reflect a return on equity (ROE) set at 70 percent of the current FPSC-authorized ROE, no earlier than the first billing cycle of January 2017. The wholesale portion of CR3 investments, which are not covered by the 2012 settlement agreement, totals approximately $130 million as of June 30, 2012. The recoverability of the wholesale portion of CR3 will continue to be evaluated as decisions are made regarding repair or retirement. Recovery of the wholesale portion of CR3 under the retirement option is at risk based on prior treatment of early retired plants in wholesale rates. Any NEIL proceeds received after the settlement will be applied first to replacement power costs incurred after December 31, 2012, with the remainder used to write down the remaining CR3 investments.

Base Rates, Customer Refund and Other Terms

Under the terms of the 2012 settlement agreement, PEF will maintain base rates at the current levels through the last billing cycle of December 2016, except as described as follows. The agreement provides for a $150 million annual increase in revenue requirements effective with the first billing cycle of January 2013, while maintaining the current ROE range of 9.5 percent to 11.5 percent. PEF suspended depreciation expense and reversed certain regulatory liabilities associated with CR3 effective on the February 22, 2012 implementation date of the agreement, resulting in no adjustment for the three months ended June 30, 2012, and a $47 million benefit for the six months ended June 30, 2012, which reduced O&M expense. Additionally, costs associated with CR3 investments will be removed from retail rate base effective with the first billing cycle of January 2013. PEF will accrue, for future rate-setting purposes, a carrying charge at a rate of 7.4 percent on the CR3 investment until CR3 is returned to service and placed back into retail rate base. Upon return of CR3 to commercial service, PEF will be authorized to increase its base rates for the annual revenue requirements of all CR3 investments. In the month following CR3's return to commercial service, PEF's ROE range will increase to between 9.7 percent and 11.7 percent. If PEF's retail base rate earnings fall below the ROE range, as reported on a FPSC-adjusted or pro-forma basis on a PEF monthly earnings surveillance report, PEF may petition the FPSC to amend its base rates during the term of the agreement.

Under the terms of the 2012 settlement agreement, PEF will refund $288 million to customers through the fuel clause. PEF will refund $129 million in each of 2013 and 2014, and an additional $10 million annually to residential and small commercial customers in 2014, 2015 and 2016. At December 31, 2011, a regulatory liability was established for the $288 million to be refunded in future periods. The corresponding charge was recorded as a reduction of 2011 revenues.

The cost of pollution control equipment that PEF installed and has in-service at Crystal River Units 4 and 5 (CR4 and CR5) to comply with the Federal Clean Air Interstate Rule (CAIR) is currently recovered under the Environmental Cost Recovery Clause (ECRC). The 2012 settlement agreement provides for PEF to remove those assets from recovery in the ECRC and transfer those assets to base rates effective with the first billing cycle of January 2014. The related base rate increase will be in addition to the $150 million base rate increase effective January 2013. O&M expense associated with those assets will not be included in the base rates and will continue to be recovered through the ECRC.

The 2012 settlement agreement provides for PEF to continue to recover carrying costs and other nuclear cost recovery clause-recoverable items related to the CR3 uprate project, but PEF will not seek an in-service recovery until nine months following CR3's return to commercial service. Carrying costs will be recovered through the nuclear cost recovery clause until base rates have been increased for these assets.

The 2012 settlement agreement also allows PEF to continue to reduce amortization expense (cost of removal component) beyond the expiration of the 2010 settlement agreement through the term of the 2012 settlement agreement (see “Cost of Removal Reserve”). Additionally, the 2012 settlement agreement extends PEF's ability to expedite recovery of the cost of named storms and to maintain a storm reserve at its level as of the implementation date of the agreement, and removed the maximum allowed monthly surcharge established by the 2010 settlement agreement.

COST OF REMOVAL RESERVE

The 2012 and 2010 settlement agreements provide PEF the discretion to reduce amortization expense (cost of removal component) by up to the balance in the cost of removal reserve until the earlier of (a) PEF's applicable cost of removal reserve reaches zero, or (b) the expiration of the 2012 settlement agreement at the end of 2016. PEF may not reduce amortization expense if the reduction would cause PEF to exceed the appropriate high point of the ROE range, as established in the settlement agreements. Pursuant to the settlement agreements, PEF recognized a reduction in amortization expense of $54 million for the three months ended June 30, 2011. PEF recognized reductions in amortization expense of $58 million and $134 million for the six months ended June 30, 2012 and 2011, respectively. PEF did not recognize a reduction in amortization expense for the three months ended June 30, 2012. PEF had eligible cost of removal reserves of $232 million remaining at June 30, 2012, which is impacted by accruals in accordance with PEF's latest depreciation study, removal costs expended and reductions in amortization expense as permitted by the settlement agreements.

NUCLEAR COST RECOVERY

Levy Nuclear

In 2008, the FPSC granted PEF's petition for an affirmative Determination of Need and related orders requesting cost recovery under Florida's nuclear cost-recovery rule for PEF's proposed Levy project, together with the associated facilities, including transmission lines and substation facilities.

On April 30, 2012, as part of PEF's annual nuclear cost recovery filing (see “Cost Recovery”), PEF updated the Levy project schedule and cost. Due to lower-than-projected customer demand, the lingering economic slowdown, uncertainty regarding potential carbon regulation and current low natural gas prices, PEF has shifted the in-service date for the first Levy unit to 2024, with the second unit following 18 months later. The revised schedule is consistent with the recovery approach included in the 2012 settlement agreement. Although the scope and overnight cost for Levy – including land acquisition, related transmission work and other required investments – remain essentially unchanged, the shift in schedule will increase escalation and carrying costs and raise the total estimated project cost to between $19 billion and $24 billion.

Along with the FPSC's annual prudence reviews, we will continue to evaluate the project on an ongoing basis based on certain criteria, including, but not limited to, cost; potential carbon regulation; fossil fuel prices; the benefits of fuel diversification; public, regulatory and political support; adequate financial cost-recovery mechanisms; appropriate levels of joint owner participation; customer rate impacts; project feasibility; DSM and EE programs; and availability and terms of capital financing. Taking into account these criteria, we consider Levy to be PEF's preferred baseload generation option.

CR3 Uprate

In 2007, the FPSC issued an order approving PEF's Determination of Need petition related to a multi-stage uprate of CR3 that will increase CR3's gross output by approximately 180 MW during its next refueling outage. PEF implemented the first-stage design modifications in 2008. The final stage of the uprate required a license amendment to be filed with the NRC, which was filed by PEF in June 2011 and accepted for review by the NRC on November 21, 2011. We cannot predict the outcome of this matter.

Cost Recovery

On April 30, 2012, PEF filed its annual nuclear cost-recovery filing with the FPSC to recover $152 million, which includes recovery of pre-construction and carrying costs and Capacity Cost-Recovery Clause (CCRC) recoverable O&M expense incurred or anticipated to be incurred during 2013, recovery of $88 million of prior years' deferrals in 2013, as well as the estimated actual true-up of 2012 costs associated with the CR3 uprate and Levy projects, as permitted by the 2012 settlement agreement. This results in an increase in the nuclear cost-recovery charge of $2.23 per 1,000 kWh for residential customers, which if approved, would begin with the first January 2013 billing cycle. The FPSC has scheduled hearings in the matter for September 2012, with a decision expected in October 2012. We cannot predict the outcome of this matter.

DEMAND-SIDE MANAGEMENT

On July 26, 2011, the FPSC voted to set PEF's DSM compliance goals to remain at their current level until the next goal setting docket is initiated. An intervenor filed a protest to the FPSC's Proposed Agency Action order, asserting legal challenges to the order. The parties made legal arguments to the FPSC and the FPSC issued an order denying the protest on December 22, 2011. The intervenor then filed a notice of appeal of this order to the Florida Supreme Court on January 17, 2012. The FPSC and PEF have moved to dismiss the appeal for lack of standing. The Florida Supreme Court has delayed substantive replies by the parties to the proceeding until it has considered the motions to dismiss. We cannot predict the outcome of this matter.

OTHER MATTERS

On March 29, 2012, PEF announced plans to convert the 1,011-MW Anclote Units 1 and 2 (Anclote) from oil and natural gas fired to 100 percent natural gas fired and requested that the FPSC permit recovery of the estimated $79 million conversion cost through the ECRC. PEF believes this conversion is the most cost-effective alternative for Anclote to achieve and maintain compliance with applicable environmental regulations (see Note 13B). PEF anticipates that both converted units will be placed in service by the end of 2013. We cannot predict the outcome of this matter.

PEC
 
Regulatory Matters Disclosure [Line Items]  
Regulatory Matters

5.       REGULATORY MATTERS

On July 2, 2012, Progress Energy and Duke Energy consummated the previously announced merger. See Note 2 for regulatory information related to the merger with Duke Energy.

A.       PEC RETAIL RATE MATTERS

COST-RECOVERY FILINGS

On June 4, 2012, PEC filed with the NCUC for a $40 million decrease in the fuel rate charged to its North Carolina retail ratepayers, driven by declining natural gas prices. If approved, the decrease will be effective December 1, 2012, and will decrease residential electric bills by $1.31 per 1,000 kilowatt-hours (kWh) for fuel cost recovery. On June 4, 2012, PEC also filed for a $16 million increase in the demand-side management (DSM) and energy-efficiency (EE) rate charged to its North Carolina retail ratepayers which, if approved, will be effective December 1, 2012, and will increase the residential electric bills by $0.70 per 1,000 kWh for DSM and EE cost recovery. The net impact of the filings results in an average decrease in residential electric bills of 0.6 percent. We cannot predict the outcome of these matters.

On June 27, 2012, the PSCSC approved a $23 million decrease in the fuel rate charged to PEC's South Carolina ratepayers, driven by declining natural gas prices. The decrease was effective July 1, 2012, and decreased residential electric bills by $3.65 per 1,000 kWh. On May 23, 2012, the PSCSC approved a $5 million increase in the DSM and EE rate. The increase was effective July 1, 2012, and increased residential electric bills by $1.37 per 1,000 kWh. The net impact of the two filings resulted in an average decrease in residential electric bills of 2.3 percent.

OTHER MATTERS

PEC filed a plan with the NCUC and the PSCSC to retire all of its coal-fired generating facilities in North Carolina that do not have scrubbers. On October 1, 2011, PEC retired the Weatherspoon coal-fired generating units. PEC expects to retire the remaining coal-fired facilities by the end of 2013.

On July 27, 2012, PEC announced accelerated plans to retire the 316-MW Cape Fear coal-fired generating units, originally planned to be retired in 2013, and to retire the 177-MW H.B. Robinson Unit 1 coal-fired generating unit. These units will be retired on October 1, 2012. The Robinson retirement combined with the previously announced retirements total more than 1,600 MW at five sites in the Carolinas.

The net carrying value of the remaining facilities at June 30, 2012, of $212 million is included in other utility plant, net on the Consolidated Balance Sheets. PEC expects to continue to include the five facilities' remaining net carrying value in rate base after retirement. Consistent with ratemaking treatment, PEC will continue to depreciate each plant using the current depreciation lives and rates on file with the NCUC and the PSCSC until the earlier of the plant's retirement or PEC's completion and filing of a new depreciation study on or before March 31, 2013. The final recovery periods may change in connection with the regulators' determination of the recovery of the remaining net carrying value.

PEF
 
Regulatory Matters Disclosure [Line Items]  
Regulatory Matters

B.       PEF RETAIL RATE MATTERS

CR3 OUTAGE

In September 2009, Crystal River Nuclear Plant Unit 3 (CR3) began an outage for normal refueling and maintenance as well as an uprate project to increase its generating capability and to replace two steam generators. During preparations to replace the steam generators, workers discovered a delamination (or separation) within the concrete at the periphery of the containment building, which resulted in an extension of the outage. After analysis, PEF determined that the concrete delamination at CR3 was caused by redistribution of stresses in the containment wall that occurred when PEF created an opening to accommodate the replacement of the unit's steam generators. In March 2011, the work to return the plant to service was suspended after monitoring equipment at the repair site identified a new delamination that occurred in a different section of the outer wall after the repair work was completed and during the late stages of retensioning the containment building. CR3 has remained out of service while PEF conducted an engineering analysis and review of the new delamination and evaluated repair options. Subsequent to March 2011, monitoring equipment has detected additional changes and further damage in the partially tensioned containment building and additional cracking or delaminations could occur during the repair process.

PEF is analyzing the various aspects of the repair option as well as the option of early retirement. A number of factors could affect the decision to repair, the return-to-service date and repair costs incurred, including, but not limited to, state regulatory and NRC reviews, insurance recoveries from Nuclear Electric Insurance Limited (NEIL), the ability to obtain builder's risk insurance with appropriate coverage, final engineering designs, vendor contract negotiations, the ultimate work scope completion, performance testing, weather and the impact of new information discovered during additional testing and analysis.

Based on an analysis of possible repair options performed by outside engineering consultants, PEF selected an option, which would entail systematically removing and replacing concrete in substantial portions of the containment structure walls. The preliminary estimate of $900 million to $1.3 billion is currently under review and could change following completion of further detailed engineering studies, vendor negotiations and final risk assessments. These engineering studies and risk assessments include analyses by independent entities currently in progress. The risk assessment process includes analysis of events that, although currently deemed unlikely, could have a significant impact on the cost estimate or feasibility of repair. The cost range of the repair option, based on preliminary analysis, appears to be trending upward. PEF will update the current estimate as this effort is completed.

PEF has worked with two potential vendors for repair work and has received repair proposals from both vendors. After analyzing those proposals, PEF has selected a single vendor that PEF would engage to complete the repair of CR3 should the choice to repair CR3 be made. As a result of this selection, PEF recognized an $18 million expense for previously deferred costs associated with the non-selected vendor. These costs are included in O&M expense on our Statements of Comprehensive Income. See “2012 Settlement Agreement” for discussion of CR3 cost recovery and other provisions.

PEF maintains insurance coverage against incremental costs of replacement power resulting from prolonged accidental outages at CR3 through NEIL. NEIL provides insurance coverage for repair costs for covered events, as well as the cost of replacement power when the unit is out of service as a result of these events. Following a 12-week deductible period, the NEIL program provided reimbursement for replacement power costs for 52 weeks at $4.5 million per week, through April 9, 2011. An additional 71 weeks of coverage, which runs through August 2012, is provided at $3.6 million per week. Accordingly, the NEIL program provides replacement power coverage of up to $490 million per event. Actual replacement power costs have exceeded the insurance coverage through June 30, 2012. PEF anticipates that future replacement power costs will continue to exceed the insurance coverage. PEF also maintains insurance coverage through NEIL's accidental property damage program, which provides insurance coverage up to $2.25 billion with a $10 million deductible per claim.

PEF is continuing to work with NEIL for recovery of applicable repair costs and associated replacement power costs. NEIL has made payments on the first delamination; however, NEIL has withheld payment of approximately $70 million of replacement power cost claims and repair cost claims related to the first delamination event. NEIL has unresolved concerns and has not made any payments on the second delamination and has not provided a written coverage decision for either delamination. In addition, no replacement power reimbursements have been received from NEIL since May 2011. These considerations led us to conclude that it was not probable that NEIL will voluntarily pay the full coverage amounts we believe they owe under the applicable insurance policies. Consistent with the terms and procedures under the insurance coverage with NEIL, we have agreed to mediation prior to commencing any formal dispute resolution. We are in the process of providing information as requested by NEIL and currently have scheduled the mediation to commence in fourth quarter of 2012. Given the circumstances, accounting standards require full recovery to be probable to recognize an insurance receivable. Therefore, as of June 30, 2012, PEF has not recorded insurance receivables from NEIL related to either the first or second delamination. PEF continues to believe that all applicable costs associated with bringing CR3 back into service are covered under all insurance policies.

The following table summarizes the CR3 replacement power and repair costs and recovery through June 30, 2012:

(in millions)Replacement Power Costs Repair Costs
Spent to date$534$305
NEIL proceeds received to date (162) (143)
 Balance for recovery(a)$372$162
       
(a)  See "2012 Settlement Agreement" below for discussion of PEF's ability to recover prudently incurred fuel and purchased power costs and CR3 repair costs.
       

PEF believes the actions taken and costs incurred in response to the CR3 delaminations have been prudent and, accordingly, considers replacement power and capital costs not recoverable through insurance to be recoverable through its fuel cost-recovery clause or base rates. Additional replacement power costs and repair and maintenance costs incurred until CR3 is returned to service could be material. Additionally, we cannot be assured that CR3 can be repaired and brought back to service until full engineering and other analyses are completed.

2012 SETTLEMENT AGREEMENT

On February 22, 2012, the FPSC approved a comprehensive settlement agreement among PEF, the Florida Office of Public Counsel and other consumer advocates. The 2012 settlement agreement will continue through the last billing cycle of December 2016. The agreement addresses three principal matters: PEF's proposed Levy Nuclear Power Plant (Levy) Nuclear Project cost recovery, the CR3 delamination prudence review then pending before the FPSC, and certain base rate issues. When all of the settlement provisions are factored in, the total increase in 2013 for residential customer bills will be approximately $4.93 per 1,000 kWh, or 4 percent.

Levy

Under the terms of the 2012 settlement agreement, PEF will set the residential cost-recovery factor of PEF's proposed two units at Levy (see “Nuclear Cost Recovery – Levy Nuclear”) at $3.45 per 1,000 kWh effective in the first billing cycle of January 2013 and continuing for a five-year period. PEF will not recover any additional Levy costs from customers through the term of the agreement, or file for any additional recovery before March 1, 2017, unless otherwise agreed to by the parties to the agreement. This amount is intended to recover the estimated retail project costs to date plus costs necessary to obtain the combined license (COL) and any engineering, procurement and construction (EPC) cancellation costs, if PEF ultimately chooses to cancel that contract. In addition, the consumer parties will not oppose PEF continuing to pursue a COL for Levy. After the five-year period, PEF will true up any actual costs not recovered under the Levy cost-recovery factor.

The 2012 settlement agreement also provides that PEF will treat the allocated wholesale cost of Levy (approximately $60 million) as a retail regulatory asset and include this asset as a component of rate base and amortization expense for regulatory reporting. PEF will have the discretion to accelerate and/or suspend such amortization in full or in part provided that PEF amortizes all of the regulatory asset by December 31, 2016.

CR3

Under the terms of the 2012 settlement agreement, PEF will be permitted to recover prudently incurred fuel and purchased power costs through the fuel clause without regard for the absence of CR3 for the period from the beginning of the CR3 outage through the earlier of the return of CR3 to commercial service or December 31, 2016. If PEF does not begin repairs of CR3 prior to the end of 2012, PEF will refund replacement power costs on a pro rata basis based on the in-service date of up to $40 million in 2015 and $60 million in 2016. If PEF decides to retire and decommission CR3, PEF will refund $100 million of replacement power costs. However, in the event that repair activities continue beyond December 31, 2016, the parties are not prohibited from contesting PEF's right to recover replacement power costs incurred after 2016. The parties to the agreement maintain the right to challenge the prudence and reasonableness of PEF's fuel acquisition and power purchases, and other fuel prudence issues unrelated to the CR3 outage. All prudence issues from the steam generator project inception through the date of settlement approval by the FPSC are resolved.

To the extent that PEF pursues the repair of CR3, PEF will establish an estimated cost and repair schedule with ongoing consultation with the parties to the agreement. The established cost, to be approved by our board of directors, will be the basis for project measurement. If costs exceed the board-approved estimate, overruns will be split evenly between our shareholders and PEF customers up to $400 million. The parties to the agreement agree to discuss the method of recovery of any overruns in excess of $400 million, with final decision by the FPSC if resolution cannot be reached. If the repairs begin prior to the end of 2012, the parties to the agreement waive their rights to challenge PEF's decision to repair and the repair plan chosen by PEF. In addition, there will be limited rights to challenge recovery of the repair execution costs incurred prior to the final resolution on NEIL coverage. The parties to the agreement will discuss the treatment of any potential gap between NEIL repair coverage and the estimated cost, with final decision by the FPSC if resolution cannot be reached. If the repairs do not begin prior to the end of 2012, the parties to the agreement reserve the right to challenge the prudence of PEF's repair decision, plan and implementation. Efforts to resolve insurance coverage with NEIL could continue past December 31, 2012.

PEF also retains sole discretion and flexibility to retire the unit without challenge from the parties to the agreement. If PEF decides to retire CR3, PEF is allowed to recover all remaining CR3 investments and to earn a return on the CR3 investments set at its current authorized overall cost of capital, adjusted to reflect a return on equity (ROE) set at 70 percent of the current FPSC-authorized ROE, no earlier than the first billing cycle of January 2017. The wholesale portion of CR3 investments, which are not covered by the 2012 settlement agreement, totals approximately $130 million as of June 30, 2012. The recoverability of the wholesale portion of CR3 will continue to be evaluated as decisions are made regarding repair or retirement. Recovery of the wholesale portion of CR3 under the retirement option is at risk based on prior treatment of early retired plants in wholesale rates. Any NEIL proceeds received after the settlement will be applied first to replacement power costs incurred after December 31, 2012, with the remainder used to write down the remaining CR3 investments.

Base Rates, Customer Refund and Other Terms

Under the terms of the 2012 settlement agreement, PEF will maintain base rates at the current levels through the last billing cycle of December 2016, except as described as follows. The agreement provides for a $150 million annual increase in revenue requirements effective with the first billing cycle of January 2013, while maintaining the current ROE range of 9.5 percent to 11.5 percent. PEF suspended depreciation expense and reversed certain regulatory liabilities associated with CR3 effective on the February 22, 2012 implementation date of the agreement, resulting in no adjustment for the three months ended June 30, 2012, and a $47 million benefit for the six months ended June 30, 2012, which reduced O&M expense. Additionally, costs associated with CR3 investments will be removed from retail rate base effective with the first billing cycle of January 2013. PEF will accrue, for future rate-setting purposes, a carrying charge at a rate of 7.4 percent on the CR3 investment until CR3 is returned to service and placed back into retail rate base. Upon return of CR3 to commercial service, PEF will be authorized to increase its base rates for the annual revenue requirements of all CR3 investments. In the month following CR3's return to commercial service, PEF's ROE range will increase to between 9.7 percent and 11.7 percent. If PEF's retail base rate earnings fall below the ROE range, as reported on a FPSC-adjusted or pro-forma basis on a PEF monthly earnings surveillance report, PEF may petition the FPSC to amend its base rates during the term of the agreement.

Under the terms of the 2012 settlement agreement, PEF will refund $288 million to customers through the fuel clause. PEF will refund $129 million in each of 2013 and 2014, and an additional $10 million annually to residential and small commercial customers in 2014, 2015 and 2016. At December 31, 2011, a regulatory liability was established for the $288 million to be refunded in future periods. The corresponding charge was recorded as a reduction of 2011 revenues.

The cost of pollution control equipment that PEF installed and has in-service at Crystal River Units 4 and 5 (CR4 and CR5) to comply with the Federal Clean Air Interstate Rule (CAIR) is currently recovered under the Environmental Cost Recovery Clause (ECRC). The 2012 settlement agreement provides for PEF to remove those assets from recovery in the ECRC and transfer those assets to base rates effective with the first billing cycle of January 2014. The related base rate increase will be in addition to the $150 million base rate increase effective January 2013. O&M expense associated with those assets will not be included in the base rates and will continue to be recovered through the ECRC.

The 2012 settlement agreement provides for PEF to continue to recover carrying costs and other nuclear cost recovery clause-recoverable items related to the CR3 uprate project, but PEF will not seek an in-service recovery until nine months following CR3's return to commercial service. Carrying costs will be recovered through the nuclear cost recovery clause until base rates have been increased for these assets.

The 2012 settlement agreement also allows PEF to continue to reduce amortization expense (cost of removal component) beyond the expiration of the 2010 settlement agreement through the term of the 2012 settlement agreement (see “Cost of Removal Reserve”). Additionally, the 2012 settlement agreement extends PEF's ability to expedite recovery of the cost of named storms and to maintain a storm reserve at its level as of the implementation date of the agreement, and removed the maximum allowed monthly surcharge established by the 2010 settlement agreement.

COST OF REMOVAL RESERVE

The 2012 and 2010 settlement agreements provide PEF the discretion to reduce amortization expense (cost of removal component) by up to the balance in the cost of removal reserve until the earlier of (a) PEF's applicable cost of removal reserve reaches zero, or (b) the expiration of the 2012 settlement agreement at the end of 2016. PEF may not reduce amortization expense if the reduction would cause PEF to exceed the appropriate high point of the ROE range, as established in the settlement agreements. Pursuant to the settlement agreements, PEF recognized a reduction in amortization expense of $54 million for the three months ended June 30, 2011. PEF recognized reductions in amortization expense of $58 million and $134 million for the six months ended June 30, 2012 and 2011, respectively. PEF did not recognize a reduction in amortization expense for the three months ended June 30, 2012. PEF had eligible cost of removal reserves of $232 million remaining at June 30, 2012, which is impacted by accruals in accordance with PEF's latest depreciation study, removal costs expended and reductions in amortization expense as permitted by the settlement agreements.

NUCLEAR COST RECOVERY

Levy Nuclear

In 2008, the FPSC granted PEF's petition for an affirmative Determination of Need and related orders requesting cost recovery under Florida's nuclear cost-recovery rule for PEF's proposed Levy project, together with the associated facilities, including transmission lines and substation facilities.

On April 30, 2012, as part of PEF's annual nuclear cost recovery filing (see “Cost Recovery”), PEF updated the Levy project schedule and cost. Due to lower-than-projected customer demand, the lingering economic slowdown, uncertainty regarding potential carbon regulation and current low natural gas prices, PEF has shifted the in-service date for the first Levy unit to 2024, with the second unit following 18 months later. The revised schedule is consistent with the recovery approach included in the 2012 settlement agreement. Although the scope and overnight cost for Levy – including land acquisition, related transmission work and other required investments – remain essentially unchanged, the shift in schedule will increase escalation and carrying costs and raise the total estimated project cost to between $19 billion and $24 billion.

Along with the FPSC's annual prudence reviews, we will continue to evaluate the project on an ongoing basis based on certain criteria, including, but not limited to, cost; potential carbon regulation; fossil fuel prices; the benefits of fuel diversification; public, regulatory and political support; adequate financial cost-recovery mechanisms; appropriate levels of joint owner participation; customer rate impacts; project feasibility; DSM and EE programs; and availability and terms of capital financing. Taking into account these criteria, we consider Levy to be PEF's preferred baseload generation option.

CR3 Uprate

In 2007, the FPSC issued an order approving PEF's Determination of Need petition related to a multi-stage uprate of CR3 that will increase CR3's gross output by approximately 180 MW during its next refueling outage. PEF implemented the first-stage design modifications in 2008. The final stage of the uprate required a license amendment to be filed with the NRC, which was filed by PEF in June 2011 and accepted for review by the NRC on November 21, 2011. We cannot predict the outcome of this matter.

Cost Recovery

On April 30, 2012, PEF filed its annual nuclear cost-recovery filing with the FPSC to recover $152 million, which includes recovery of pre-construction and carrying costs and Capacity Cost-Recovery Clause (CCRC) recoverable O&M expense incurred or anticipated to be incurred during 2013, recovery of $88 million of prior years' deferrals in 2013, as well as the estimated actual true-up of 2012 costs associated with the CR3 uprate and Levy projects, as permitted by the 2012 settlement agreement. This results in an increase in the nuclear cost-recovery charge of $2.23 per 1,000 kWh for residential customers, which if approved, would begin with the first January 2013 billing cycle. The FPSC has scheduled hearings in the matter for September 2012, with a decision expected in October 2012. We cannot predict the outcome of this matter.

DEMAND-SIDE MANAGEMENT

On July 26, 2011, the FPSC voted to set PEF's DSM compliance goals to remain at their current level until the next goal setting docket is initiated. An intervenor filed a protest to the FPSC's Proposed Agency Action order, asserting legal challenges to the order. The parties made legal arguments to the FPSC and the FPSC issued an order denying the protest on December 22, 2011. The intervenor then filed a notice of appeal of this order to the Florida Supreme Court on January 17, 2012. The FPSC and PEF have moved to dismiss the appeal for lack of standing. The Florida Supreme Court has delayed substantive replies by the parties to the proceeding until it has considered the motions to dismiss. We cannot predict the outcome of this matter.

OTHER MATTERS

On March 29, 2012, PEF announced plans to convert the 1,011-MW Anclote Units 1 and 2 (Anclote) from oil and natural gas fired to 100 percent natural gas fired and requested that the FPSC permit recovery of the estimated $79 million conversion cost through the ECRC. PEF believes this conversion is the most cost-effective alternative for Anclote to achieve and maintain compliance with applicable environmental regulations (see Note 13B). PEF anticipates that both converted units will be placed in service by the end of 2013. We cannot predict the outcome of this matter.