EX-99.(C)(2) 3 ny20020120x1_exc2.htm EXHIBIT (C)(2)
Exhibit (c)(2)

 INVESTMENT BANKING •  RESEARCH • INSTITUTIONAL SALES & TRADING  December 2023  Project Bluebonnet  Preliminary Valuation Discussion Materials 
 
 Via Stock Performance  Via 6-Month Stock Price  Source: Capital IQ.   Note: 30 and 60-day VWAPs calculated as of the 12/5/23 closing price.   November 15, 2023 Bid  Price: $9.00/share  Closing Price 1 Day Prior / Premium: $7.93 / 13%  Premium to Then-60 Day VWAP: 17%  September 5, 2023 Bid  Price: $10.50/share  Closing Price 1 Day Prior / Premium: $8.90 / 18%  Premium to Then-60 Day VWAP: 22% 
 
 Via Public Market Overview  Stock Valuation  Historical & Projected Financials  Top-10 Shareholder Analysis(3)  (2)  NCI is now negative and therefore is a deduct in arriving at Enterprise Value.  12/31/21A Adjusted EBITDA inclusive of $60mm non-recurring event – Winter Storm Uri.  William Keith Maxwell III’s common stock equivalent held includes 4 million Class B shares.  (1) 
 
 Public Company Comparables  Enterprise Value / Adj. EBITDA  Source: Public filings, Capital IQ, and Wall Street equity research.   Note: Market data as of 12/6/23. $s in millions.   Mean  Median  LTM  10.0x  9.5x  2023E  9.5x  10.3x  2024E  8.8x  9.8x  B. Riley believes Genie and Vistra to be the most relevant public comps.  Market Cap: $21,169  EV: $47,354  Market Cap: $7,138  EV: $11,887  Market Cap: $11,934  EV: $24,672  Market Cap: $10,812  EV: $22,712  Market Cap: $719  EV: $565  Market Cap: $13,194  EV: $25,941  Market Cap: $62  EV: $202 
 
 Date Announced / Closed   Target  Acquirer  Enterprise Value ($mm)  EV / LTM Revenue  EV / LTM EBITDA  EV / NTM EBITDA  3/6/2023  Energy Harbor  Vistra Energy Corp.   $3,430.0   NA  NA  NA  2/24/2023  South Jersey Industries, Inc.   JP Morgan Asset Mgmt.   7,846.1   3.9x  16.6x  15.3x  2/11/2022  Hope Gas, Inc.   Hearthstone Utilities Inc.    690.0   NA  NA  NA  9/10/2021  Liberty Power Holdings, LLC  NRG Energy   35.4   NA  NA  NA  3/18/2021  The Narragansett Electric Company  PPL Energy Holdings, LLC   5,116.4   3.3x  18.8x  NA  2/17/2021  Sunstreet Energy Group, LLC  Sunnova Energy Corporation   297.8   NA  NA  NA  1/14/2021  Atlantic Power Corporation   I Squared Capital Advisors   955.7   3.5x  6.9x  NA  11/4/2020  Veteran Energy and Infinite Energy  Vistra Energy Corp.   13.0   3.7x  NA  NA  7/24/2020  Direct Energy(1)  NRG Energy   3,625.0   NA  7.9x  NA  4/6/2020  Mankato Energy Center of Xcel Energy   Southwest Generation   680.0   NA  NA  NA  11/1/2019  Ambit Energy Holdings, LLC  Vistra Energy Corp.   475.0   NA  4.8x  3.8x  7/15/2019  Crius Energy  Vistra Energy Corp.   509.5   0.4x  7.1x  5.7x  5/20/2019  Stream Energy  NRG Energy   300.0   NA  4.6x  NA  1/4/2019  Lumo Energia  Genie Energy   6.6   NA  NA  NA  10/25/2018  Starion Energy, Inc. (60,000 RCE's)  Spark Energy, Inc.   10.7   NA  NA  NA  4/9/2018  Dynegy Inc.  Vistra Energy Corp.   10,475.1   2.1x  10.4x  7.5x  3/28/2018  Xoom Energy  NRG Energy   210.0   NA  4.7x  NA  Precedent Transaction Analysis  Source: Public filings, Capital IQ, and Wall Street equity research.   (1)The seller of Direct Energy, Centrica, reported the LTM EBITDA multiple at 7.9x, however, that included certain synergies. NRG reported the multiple at 4.9x. 
 
 Date Announced / Closed   Target  Acquirer  Enterprise Value ($mm)  EV / LTM Revenue  EV / LTM EBITDA  EV / NTM EBITDA  6/29/2017  MP2 Energy  Shell Energy North America   NA   NA  NA  NA  5/30/2017  U.S. Gas & Electric, Inc.  Crius Energy   172.5   NA  4.9x  NA  5/9/2017  Verde Energy  Spark Energy, Inc.   65.0   NA  NM  NA  12/31/2016  Engie SA  Unknown Minority Investor   60,112.6   0.8x  5.4x  5.3x  11/20/2016  North American Power  Calpine Corp.   111.0   NA  NA  NA  10/9/2016  Noble Americas Energy Solutions(2)  Calpine Corp.   700.0   NA  5.0x  NA  5/5/2016  Major Energy  Spark Energy, Inc.   63.2   NA  NA  NA  5/4/2016  Provider Power  Spark Energy, Inc.   34.9   NA  NA  NA  10/1/2015  Champion Energy Marketing, LLC  Calpine Corp.   240.0   NA  NA  NA  11/28/2011  DPL Inc.  The AES Corporation   4,718.2   2.4x  7.6x  NA  10/28/2011  Genie Energy Ltd.  Public Spin-0ff   113.8   0.6x  7.5x  NA  8/16/2011  Energy Plus Holdings  NRG Energy   190.0   NA  8.5x  NA  4/28/2011  Constellation Energy Group, Inc.  Exelon Corporation   11,448.1   0.8x  7.3x  6.4x  9/16/2010  Green Mountain Energy  NRG Energy   350.0   NA  5.0x  NA  5/1/2009  Reliant Energy  NRG Energy   287.5   NA  NA  NA  Upper Quartile  3.46x  7.9x  8.6x  Mean  2.16x  7.8x  7.8x  Median  2.28x  7.1x  6.1x  Lower Quartile  0.81x  5.0x  5.2x  Min   0.41x  4.6x  3.8x  Max  3.94x  18.8x  15.3x  Precedent Transaction Analysis (cont’d)  Source: Public filings, Capital IQ, and Wall Street equity research.   (2) Calpine paid Noble Americas $800 million, plus $350 million of net working capital, however, recovered $250 million subsequent to closing and another $200 million post closing. 
 
 A present value of projected cash flows implies an equity value per share range of ~$14.00 to ~$22.00  Discounted Cash Flow Analysis  Source: Public filings, Capital IQ, and Wall Street equity research.   1) 2025E change in net working capital was adjusted to be 6.4% of the change in revenue 2024E to 2025E.  A present value of projected cash flows implies an equity value per share range of $10.05 to $14.35  Free Cash Flow Calculation   Key Assumptions  Enterprise Value Sensitivity Analysis  Implied Enterprise Value / 2024P Adj. EBITDA  TBU w new terminal x 
 
 Premiums Paid Analysis  The below analysis shows the implied stock prices utilizing transaction premiums paid in transactions over the last five years  Source: Capital IQ.  Note: Reference share price and implied share prices based on 12/6/2023 market data.   $7.25  $9.30 $9.65  Average  Implied VIA Share Price with Premium  $10.40 $11.44  $10.74 $11.60  $9.48 $10.22  Average $10.64  Average 31.3%  VIA Reference Share Price  $8.50  $8.45  $7.39  Summary  U.S. public company targets over the last 5 years  462 transactions analyzed  88 Small-Cap  Separated into two categories:  All transactions  Small-Cap (transactions with deal value less than $500 million)  Total transaction value statistics:  Mean: $6,685.9 million  Median: $2,375.5 million  Small-Cap transaction value statistics:  Mean: $213.1 million  Median: $208.6 million  Median Transaction Premiums Paid Over Last 5 Years 
 
 Purchase Price Ratio Analysis  Source: Capital IQ.  1) NCI is now negative and therefore is a deduct in arriving at Enterprise Value.  2) Debt does not include long-term leases.  Check premium $10 start 
 
 Valuation Summary – Price per Share  Note: Equity value per share is derived by deducting net debt of $59.9 million and preferred stock of $88.0 million and adding $7.1 million in NCI to enterprise value. Analysis assumes 7.4 million shares.   WACC of 11.5% - 12.5%   Terminal exit multiple of 4.5x – 5.5x 2025E Adj EBITDA   EV / LTM 9/30/23 Adj EBITDA (3.75x – 6.50x)   EV / 2023E Adj EBITDA (3.75x – 6.00x)  Comparable Trading Analysis   EV / 2024E Adj EBITDA (3.50x – 4.50x)  Does not reflect synergies or change of control premium   EV / LTM 9/30/23 Adj EBITDA (4.00x – 6.00x)  Reflects change of control premium   WACC of 24.0% - 26.0%   Terminal exit multiple of 4.00x – 5.00x 2026E Adj EBITDA   60 Day (28.3% – 38.3%)   1 Day (22.4% – 34.6%)   30 Day VWAP (27.1% – 37.3%)  Precedent Transaction Analysis  Discounted Cash Flow Analysis  Premiums Paid Analysis  Current Price:   $8.50 per share  Potential Counter:   $12.00 - $13.00 per share 
 


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