EX-99.2 20 ex99_2.htm EXHIBIT 99.2 Exhibit 10.2

EXHIBIT 99.2


EVALUATION OF
RESOURCE POTENTIAL


EAST WADI ARABA CONCESSION
Offshore Gulf of Suez, Egypt


Owned by

Mogul Energy International, Inc.


December 1, 2005



January 10, 2006


Mogul Energy International, Inc.
Suite 2210-520 Pike Street
Seattle, Washington, USA


Attention: Mr. Naeem Tyab 


Dear Sir:

Re: Resource Assessment - East Wadi Araba (EWA) Concession

In accordance with your authorization, we have performed an evaluation of the resource potential of an exploration block owned by Mogul Energy International, Inc. (the "Company"), the East Wadi Araba Concession in the Gulf of Suez, Egypt, in order to determine the feasibility the Company participating in this prospect under the terms proposed. This evaluation has been conducted in accordance with NI 51-101, Sec 5.9 & 5.10, pertaining to prospects and resources. All references to monetary value in this report are expressed in terms of US dollars.

Our analysis has included a review of the available technical data including general geological and geophysical information presented by the Company, the terms of the Concession Agreement for Petroleum Exploration and Exploitation, information from relevant nearby wells and the proposed program for these prospects. We have reviewed the material presented by the Company with respect to the estimated resources and productivity that would be expected of a successful well, the anticipated capital costs (including drilling, completion and equipment), the average operating costs in the area and expected product prices. We have also considered the availability of oil markets, and transportation facilities within economic reach of the area.

2


In forming our opinion of this prospect we have relied to some extent on the information presented by the Company and its professional consultants which, together with our independent research and judgment, was sufficient for us to confidently establish the nature of a typical prospect on their concession and risks involved.

Economic analyses have been performed for the Company's interest position under the proposed terms, both before risk and after risk. This analysis has been utilized solely for formulating and supporting our recommendation on the project and is not meant to infer the "fair market value" of the project. Based on our review, after consideration of risk, we have concluded that the potential of the concession is of sufficient merit to justify the work program being proposed, and we therefore recommend and support the Company's participation in the project.

All data gathered and calculations created in support of this report are stored permanently in our files and can be made available or presented on request. We reserve the right to make revisions to this report in light of additional information made available or which becomes known subsequent to the preparation of this report. Due to the risks involved in exploring for oil and gas reserves, our assessment of the project cannot be considered a guarantee that any wells drilled will be successful.

It has been a pleasure to perform this evaluation and the opportunity to have been of service is appreciated.


Yours very truly,

Chapman Petroleum Engineering Ltd.


[ORIGINAL SIGNED BY:]


C. W. Chapman, P. Eng.,
President

3


[ORIGINAL SIGNED BY:]


Charles G.K. Moore, P.Eng.,
Associate

 
cwc/bd/3989
attachments

4


CERTIFICATE OF QUALIFICATION


I, C. W. CHAPMAN, P. Eng., Professional Engineer of the City of Calgary, Alberta, hereby certify:

1.
THAT I am a registered Professional Engineer in the Province of Alberta and a member of the Australasian Institute of Mining and Metallurgy, and I reside at 230 Mt. Cascade Place, S.E., Calgary, Alberta.

2.
THAT I graduated from the University of Alberta with a Bachelor of Science degree in Mechanical Engineering in 1971.

3.
THAT I have been employed in the petroleum industry since graduation by various companies and have been directly involved in reservoir engineering, petrophysics, operations, and evaluations during that time.

4.
THAT I have in excess of 25 years in the conduct of evaluation and engineering studies relating to oil & gas fields in Canada and around the world.

5.
THAT I participated directly in the evaluation of these assets and properties and preparation of this report for Mogul Energy International, Inc., dated January 10, 2006 and the parameters and conditions employed in this evaluation were examined by me and adopted as representative and appropriate in establishing the value of these oil and gas properties according to the information available to date.

6.
THAT I have not, nor do I expect to receive, any direct or indirect interest in the properties or securities of Mogul Energy International, Inc., its participants or any affiliate thereof.

7.
THAT I have not examined all of the documents pertaining to the ownership and agreements referred to in this report, or the chain of Title for the oil and gas properties discussed.

8.
A personal field examination of these properties was considered to be unnecessary because the data available from the Company's records and public sources was satisfactory for our purposes.


[ORIGINAL SIGNED BY:]

C. W. Chapman, P.Eng.
President

5


CERTIFICATE OF QUALIFICATION


 
I, CHARLES G.K. MOORE, P. Eng., Professional Engineer of the City of Calgary, Alberta, hereby certify:

1.
THAT I am a registered Professional Engineer in the Province of Alberta and I reside at 274 Carragana Crescent N.W., Calgary, Alberta.

2.
THAT I graduated from the Technical University of Nova Scotia with a Bachelor of Engineering degree in Mining Engineering in 1972.

3.
THAT I have been employed in the petroleum industry since graduation by various companies and have been directly involved in reservoir engineering, petrophysics, operations, and evaluations during that time.

4.
THAT I have in excess of 10 years of experience in the conduct of evaluation and engineering studies relating to oil and gas fields in Canada and internationally.

5.
THAT I participated directly in the evaluation of these assets and properties and preparation of this report for Mogul Energy International, Inc., dated January 10, 2006 and the parameters and conditions employed in this evaluation were examined by me and adopted as representative and appropriate in establishing the value of these oil and gas properties according to the information available to date.

6.
THAT I have not, nor do I expect to receive, any direct or indirect interest in the properties or securities of Mogul Energy International, Inc., its participants or any affiliate thereof.

7.
THAT I have not examined all of the documents pertaining to the ownership and agreements referred to in this report, or the chain of Title for the oil and gas properties discussed.

8.
A personal field examination of these properties was considered to be unnecessary because the data available from the Company’s records and public sources was satisfactory for our purposes.


[ORIGINAL SIGNED BY:]
 
Charles G.K. Moore, P.Eng.

6


CERTIFICATE OF QUALIFICATION


I, HESHAM M. MOUBARAK, B.Sc. in Geophysics, Alfateh University, Tripoli, Libya, and Marketing and Management Certificate, Befak, GmbH, Berlin, Germany certify:

1.
THAT I am a Geophysicist and I reside at Apt. #209, 605-13 Avenue S.W., Calgary, Alberta.

2.
THAT I am a Master student at the University of Calgary.

3.
THAT I am a researcher associate at the Consortium for Research in Elastic Wave Exploration Seismology (CREWES).

4.
THAT I am a member of the Canadian Society of Exploration Geophysicists (CSEG), and Canadian Well Logging Society (CWLS), Calgary, Alberta.

5.
THAT I graduated from Alfateh University, Tripoli, Libya with a Bachelor of Geophysics degree in 1994 and graduated from Befak GmbH, Berlin, Germany with a Marketing and Management degree in 2003.

6.
THAT I worked for Schlumberger-GeoQuest as a well log analyst and worked for Assada Sports and Albatrik Supermarket as a Marketing Assistant.

7.
THAT I have in excess of 10 years of experience in Marketing & Management, and seismic & Petrophysical interpretation.

8.
THAT I participated directly in the evaluation of these assets and properties and preparation of this report for Mogul Energy International, Inc., dated January 5, 2006 and the parameters and conditions employed in this evaluation were examined by me and adopted as representative and appropriate in establishing the value of these oil and gas properties according to the information available to date.

9.
THAT I have not, nor do I expect to receive, any direct or indirect interest in the properties or securities of Mogul Energy International, Inc., its participants or any affiliate thereof.

10.
THAT I have not examined all of the documents pertaining to the ownership and agreements referred to in this report, or the chain of Title for the oil and gas properties discussed.

11.
A personal field examination of these properties was considered to be unnecessary because the data available from the company’s records and public sources was satisfactory for our purposes.


[ORIGINAL SIGNED BY:]
 
HESHAM M. MOUBARAK, B.Sc. (Geophysics)

7


EVALUATION OF

RESOURCE POTENTIAL


EAST WADI ARABA CONCESSION
 
Offshore Gulf of Suez, Egypt
 
 

Owned by

Mogul Energy International, Inc.


December 1, 2005

8


TABLE OF CONTENTS


Scope of Report
 
Authorization
Purpose

Executive Summary

Discussion

Ownership
Exploration History
Geology
Resource Potential
Productivity Estimates
Product Prices
Operating Environment
Capital Expenditures
Operating Costs
Economics and Risk
 
Attachments

 
Figure 1:
Orientation Map

 
Figure 2:
Stratigraphic Chart

 
Table 1:
Economic Model - Best Estimate

 
Table 2:
Economic Model - Low Estimate

 
Table 3:
Economic Model - High Estimate

 
Figure 3:
Risk Analysis
 
a)
Best Estimate
 
b)
Low Estimate
 
c)
High Estimate

9


SCOPE OF REPORT


Authorization

This report has been authorized by Mr. Naeem Tyab, on behalf of Mogul Energy International, Inc.
The review and analysis of this prospect has been conducted during December 2005 and January 2006.

Purpose

The purpose of this report was to perform an independent technical and economic assessment of the exploration lands owned by the Company in the Gulf of Suez in Egypt, to establish the feasibility of developing this prospect.

This report may be submitted to the appropriate securities regulatory bodies in support of the Company’s planned transaction.

10


EAST WADI ARABA (EWA) CONCESSION
OFFSHORE GULF OF SUEZ
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

This executive summary contains the information required to be disclosed under NI 51-101 Sec 5.9. More details regarding the Company’s prospect(s) are presented in the Report Discussion which follows:

 
a)
The Company’s exploration lands are located in East Wadi Araba (EWA), offshore Gulf of Suez, Egypt in the Gulf of Suez Basin.

 
b)
The company’s EWA concession (after the first 25 percent relinquishment) is comprised of 294.5 square kilometers (about 72,772 acres) gross and 58.9 square kilometers (14,554 acres) net to the Company’s 20% interest.

 
c)
The block was awarded as part of the Concession Agreement between the Egyptian General Petroleum Corporation (EGPC) and Dover Investments Ltd. on July 18, 2002. The three part exploration period continues for a total of seven years until July 18, 2009, during which the exploration program will be conducted, for which there is a six well and 12 million dollar work obligation.

 
d)
The prospective reservoirs in the concession cover shallow-marine, deltaic and turbidite sand and carbonate reservoirs of Miocene age as well as Eocene Carbonates and Cretaceous Sands. An additional target zone is the Nubian sandstone reservoir.

 
e)
The block surrounds the Warda oil field that produced over 50 million barrels since 1993.

11


 
f)
The expected product from the prospective reservoirs is oil with a gravity of 22 to 25o API. Under COGEH this is considered to be heavy oil however, in the Gulf of Suez this is thought of as conventional medium gravity crude.

 
g)
The expected pool sizes range from 106,672 MSTB to 213,328 MSTB of recoverable oil.

 
h)
The depth of the expected production is 5000 feet or less.

 
i)
The estimated cost to drill and complete a well is up to US $2,500,000.

 
j)
The Company is planning to drill two more wells before end of 2007.

 
k)
The price anticipated to be received on production from the block is $52.00 US/STB, which is the “Suez Blend” price at November 30, 2005 (Brent less $3.00). This value has been held constant in all years.

 
l)
Marketing and transportation should not be a problem since the property is located on a navigatable waterway allowing for easy access to tankers, and there are other productive oil fields nearby.

 
m)
Trans Pacific Petroleum Corp. is the operator of the project. The management has close to 40 years of experience operating in this basin.

 
n)
We estimate the probability of success (POS) of this project to be in the range of 19 to 41 percent, depending on the case as presented in the report.

 
o)
The economic and risk analysis, justifying the participation in this project is presented in the Discussion of the report and a summary of the after risk values follows:

12


   
Best Estimate MM$
 
Low Estimate MM$
 
High Estimate MM$
Undiscounted
 
118
 
109
 
97
Discounted @ 5%/year
 
74
 
71
 
62
Discounted @ 10%/year
 
51
 
50
 
42
Discounted @ 15%/year
 
37
 
36
 
30
Discounted @ 20%/year
 
28
 
28
 
23
 
13


EAST WADI ARABA CONCESSION
OFFSHORE GULF OF SUEZ, EGYPT
DISCUSSION

Ownership

The Company owns a 20 percent working interest in approximately 72,772 acres of land in this area, as shown on the map, Figure 1.

Ownership on this block is governed by a Concession Agreement for Petroleum Exploration and Exploitation between the Arab Republic of Egypt (the Government), the Egyptian General Petroleum Corporation (EGPC), and Dover Investments Limited (the Contractor). The Exploration Period consists of three phases, the initial phase being three years, and the next two phases for two years each. The concession is now in the second phase. In the event of one or more commercial discoveries, the Company would establish a development plan and apply for a lease. The original term of a lease would be for 20 years with options to extend a further 5 to 10 years.

After each of the first two exploration phases 25 percent of the original license area must be relinquished. After the expiry of the third phase the Company will retain only the Development Areas and Discovery Areas.

Exploration History

The first two exploratory wells drilled on the block during the past three years were designed to test two different structures that are associated with two different depositional centres that have proved to be the source of huge quantities of oil that were generated and migrated to form several major oil pools in the area.

14


The EWA-1X Well was drilled close to the Warda oil field to target a structure that may contain the same type of reservoirs. The well was drilled down to the Nubia and reached a total depth of approximately 5,000 feet. The well logged 57 feet of heavy oil. The well was abandoned as non commercial but it did prove that oil had migrated across a fault into the EWA area.

The EWA-2 Well was drilled to test the potential oil accumulation of a large structure along a trend of producing oil fields towards the east, south and southeast. The oil had undoubtedly migrated through the area to reach the shore and be trapped in the Issaran oil field that is operated by Rally Energy of Calgary and contains over 700 million barrels of 11 to 19 API heavy oil in place.

Issaran oil is heavy due to the reservoir’s exposure to the bio-degradation process that has resulted in the loss of crude’s light components. The top reservoir depth is only 750 feet and its deepest oil-water contact is at 2,500 feet.

The EWA-2X was also drilled down to approximately 5000 feet and reached the Cretaceous sands. The logs indicated the presence of a 172 foot oil column in a highly fractured Belayim dolomite and a 360 foot oil column in the highly fractured Eocene dolomites.

The two intervals were drill stem tested; however, due to technical difficulties in running and completing the two tests and to avoid major potential cost overruns, the well was completed as an oil well, subject to further evaluation at a later date.

The EWA-3 well was drilled as a twin well to EWA-2 to reach the deeper targets of the Matulla and Nubia. The well reached a total depth of around 7,000 feet and offset the vertical hole by 800 meters towards the southeast at total depth. However, the Matulla and Nubia sands came in much lower than anticipated and crossed to the downthrown side of an older fault.

15


Geology

The block is located in the Gulf of Suez Basin. It comprises an area of about 294.5 sq. km (72,772 acres). Geologically, it is an extension of the Red Sea and the East African Rift Valley. The Gulf of Suez is the most prolific oil province in the world. The early deposits in the region were predominantly continental Paleozoic sands and shales that are collectively called the Nubia Group of sediments.

During the Cretaceous there was a major transgression of the sea that had resulted in the deposition of a sequence of open to restricted marine carbonates and shale deposits, that presented a major source for generating large quantities of oil in the basin.

The Cretaceous strata were later elevated and exposed to severe erosion that continued until the early Miocene and had resulted in the development of a major unconformity between the Cretaceous and the Tertiary rock sequence.

During the Miocene times, the entire region suffered a very major tectonic event that had resulted in the rifting of the area and the fast accumulation of thick deep to shallow marine sequence of sediments.

The active subsidence of the Miocene depositional basin had resulted in the deposition of, sometimes very thick deposits of Halites and Anhydites, representing a major cap rock for the Miocene reservoirs and had resulted in the higher than normal Gulf of Suez, Gulf of Aqaba and Red Sea geothermal gradient.

16


The abnormally high temperatures of the basin were a very major factor in cooking and maturing the very rich Miocene and older Cretaceous source rocks in the area and the generation of huge amounts of proto-oils that migrated through the basin to be matured and trapped in a relatively short geologic time.

The rift Basin is tectonically very complicated and those active tectonic movements had resulted in the development of huge and complicated faulting system, structural and also stratigraphic traps that were able to accumulate huge volumes of oil.

The recovery factor of the reservoir oil is one of the highest in the world and might reach 45-50% on primary recovery, as a result of three main factors namely, very active water drive, good quality reservoirs and higher than normal reservoir pressures and temperatures.

Resource Potential

There have been 14 major drillable prospects identified by the Company on EWA based on the seismic program which was made available to them with the evaluation package. The Company indicates that the reservoirs have structural closure. The oil rich Gulf of Suez, has a success ratio of 30% in the surrounding 700 square kilometers. Statistically, these 14 drillable prospects therefore have the potential for 4 to 5 commercial oil discoveries that may produce in the range of 700 million barrels of oil.

We have developed a resource model (best, low and high estimate) for one typical pool based on a scenario planned by the Company. This involves the drilling of sixteen producing wells in the pool. Specific prospect information was not reviewed in detail.

17


For the best estimate case, each well would have an ultimate recovery of 10 million STB or 160 million STB for the pool. The low and high estimated ultimate recoveries are one third lower and one third higher respectively.

Productivity Estimates

It has been estimated that the initial rate per well in the best estimate will be 3,000 STB/d. it has been estimated that the initial rate will be 2,000 STB/d per well in the low case and 4,000 STB/d per well in the high case. In all cases, wells begin an immediate decline to an eventual economic limit.

The forecast for the oil field has been based on performance of oil fields in Egypt in this area. The forecasts are presented in the economic analysis contained in the attachments.

Product Prices

A constant oil price of $52.00/STB has been utilized for this analysis, based on a $3.00 discount from the Brent posted price (November 30, 2005), which is reported to be the price in the area.

Operating Environment

This block is in the near vicinity of active oil operations to the south in the Gulf of Suez. The block is offshore but in shallow water near the shore, allowing facilities to be on land. Service and support facilities are readily available in the area.

Capital Expenditures

Total gross capital expenditures of $39,000,000 ($7,800,000 net to the Company) have been estimated. This consists of drilling one exploratory dry hole for $2,500,000, sixteen producing wells for $32,000,000 and constructing central facilities for $4,500,000, the capital has been assumed to be the same for the best, low and high resource cases.

18


Operating Costs

Fixed operating costs have been estimated to be $10,000 per well month plus variable costs of $1.00/STB for oil processing based on previous experience.

Economics and Risk

The before risk economic analyses for each case are presented in Tables 1, 2 and 3, representing the best, low and high estimates respectively, which are spread sheets incorporating all the economic criteria of the Concession Agreement. All taxes including income tax attributed to the Company, are paid by EGPC from their share of revenue and do not need to be considered in the cash flow of the Company. This analysis represents the results of an assumed successful exploration and development model for one typical pool discovery having parameters which are considered to be reasonable based on the information available. This is the 100% probability of success (POS) case.

A risk analysis has been performed to determine the feasibility of the Company participating in this project and to determine the after risk value, utilizing the “Expected Value” technique, a presentation of which is shown on Figure 3a, 3b and 3c.

The net capital exposure (POS - 0%) of this project is $2.0 million, representing the Company’s share of the Cost of four dry holes which may be required to define the potential of the concession.

19


The results of these risk analyses indicate that in order to achieve a 15 percent rate of return, a POS of 1.5, 2.1 and 1.2 percent would be required for the best, low and high cases, respectively. On the basis that we have estimated a probability of success of 30, 41 and 19 percent for the best, low and high cases, respectively, the Company’s development of this concession is considered feasible.

In establishing our probability of success, consideration has been given to both geological and engineering factors. The geological factors include the four main components of a petroleum system needed for commercial production, source rocks available to generate hydrocarbons, reservoir rocks to accumulate hydrocarbons, a stratigraphic or structural trapping mechanism with a seal to hold hydrocarbons and a mechanism and proper geological timing allowing for hydrocarbons to migrate into the trap.

The engineering risk, which has been applied, reflects the possibility of our economic model being inaccurate with regards to total reserves, initial production rates and forecasts, capital and operating expenses, development timing and product prices.

This is a prospect with little risk of source rock maturity, hydrocarbon migration, or timing as there are producing oil fields in the area. The main risks in this concession are the possibility of encountering a formation with poor reservoir quality, with heavy oil (13o API gravity or less) which is not producible at commercial rates or with a trap that is not sealed.
 
20

 
Map1
21

 
table1
 
22

 
Table 1, Page 1
Mogul Energy Ltd.
East Wadi Araba Concession
Production and Capital Forecast
                             
         
Development Program -
                 
 
Single Well Production Profile
 
# Wells
# Wells
# Wells
# Wells
# Wells
Total Oil Production
     
Capital Expenditures - $M
 
Year
STB/d
Days On
MSTB/yr
Well Count
4
4
4
4
0
STB/yr.
STB/d
 
Production Bonuses - $
 
Exploration
Drilling & Completion
Well Fac. & Tie-ins
Central Facilities
Total Capital
2005
0
0
0
0.0
         
0
0
 
0
         
0
2006
0
0
0
0.0
0
-
-
-
-
0
0
 
0
         
0
2007
3000
182
547,200
2.0
2,188,800
0
-
-
-
2,188,800
12000
 
0
 
2,500
8,000
0
4,500
15,000
2008
3000
365
1,095,000
6.0
4,380,000
2,188,800
0
-
-
6,568,800
17997
 
0
   
8,000
0
 
8,000
2009
3000
365
1,095,000
10.0
4,380,000
4,380,000
2,188,800
0
-
10,948,800
29997
 
0
   
8,000
0
 
8,000
2010
2500
365
912,500
14.0
3,650,000
4,380,000
4,380,000
2,188,800
0
14,598,800
39997
 
0
   
8,000
0
 
8,000
2011
2195
365
801,095
16.0
3,204,380
3,650,000
4,380,000
4,380,000
0
15,614,380
42779
 
0
   
0
0
 
0
2012
1927
365
703,291
16.0
2,813,165
3,204,380
3,650,000
4,380,000
0
14,047,546
38486
 
0
         
0
2013
1692
366
619,120
16.0
2,476,479
2,813,165
3,204,380
3,650,000
0
12,144,025
33180
 
0
         
0
2014
1485
367
545,018
16.0
2,180,072
2,476,479
2,813,165
3,204,380
0
10,674,097
29085
 
0
         
0
2015
1304
368
479,782
16.0
1,919,127
2,180,072
2,476,479
2,813,165
0
9,388,843
25513
 
0
         
0
2016
1145
369
422,351
16.0
1,689,404
1,919,127
2,180,072
2,476,479
0
8,265,082
22399
 
0
         
0
2017
1005
370
371,792
16.0
1,487,168
1,689,404
1,919,127
2,180,072
0
7,275,771
19664
 
0
         
0
2018
882
371
327,283
16.0
1,309,132
1,487,168
1,689,404
1,919,127
0
6,404,831
17264
 
0
         
0
2019
774
372
288,100
16.0
1,152,401
1,309,132
1,487,168
1,689,404
0
5,638,105
15156
 
0
         
0
2020
680
373
253,607
16.0
1,014,427
1,152,401
1,309,132
1,487,168
0
4,963,128
13306
 
0
         
0
2021
597
374
223,241
16.0
892,966
1,014,427
1,152,401
1,309,132
0
4,368,925
11682
 
0
         
0
2022
524
375
196,510
16.0
786,042
892,966
1,014,427
1,152,401
0
3,845,835
10256
 
0
         
0
2023
460
376
172,979
16.0
691,916
786,042
892,966
1,014,427
0
3,385,350
9004
 
0
         
0
2024
404
377
152,264
16.0
609,057
691,916
786,042
892,966
0
2,979,980
7904
 
0
         
0
2025
355
372
131,902
16.0
527,607
609,057
691,916
786,042
0
2,614,622
7029
 
0
         
0
2026
311
373
116,110
16.0
464,438
527,607
609,057
691,916
0
2,293,018
6148
 
0
         
0
2027
273
374
102,207
16.0
408,829
464,438
527,607
609,057
0
2,009,932
5374
 
0
         
0
2028
240
375
89,969
16.0
359,876
408,829
464,438
527,607
0
1,760,750
4695
 
0
         
0
2029
211
376
79,195
16.0
316,782
359,876
408,829
464,438
0
1,549,925
4122
 
0
         
0
2030
185
377
69,712
16.0
278,846
316,782
359,876
408,829
0
1,364,333
3619
 
0
         
0
2031
162
378
61,363
16.0
245,452
278,846
316,782
359,876
0
1,200,956
3177
 
0
         
0
2032
143
379
54,014
16.0
216,056
245,452
278,846
316,782
0
1,057,136
2789
 
0
         
0
2033
125
380
47,545
16.0
190,178
216,056
245,452
278,846
0
930,532
2449
 
0
         
0
2034
110
381
41,850
16.0
167,399
190,178
216,056
245,452
0
819,085
2150
 
0
         
0
2035
0
382
0
16.0
0
167,399
190,178
216,056
0
573,633
1502
 
0
         
0
2036
0
383
0
16.0
0
0
167,399
190,178
0
357,578
934
 
0
         
0
2037
0
384
0
16.0
0
0
0
167,399
0
167,399
436
 
0
         
0
2038
0
385
0
16.0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
 
0
         
0
2039
0
386
0
16.0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
 
0
         
0
Total
   
10,000,000
 
40,000,000
40,000,000
40,000,000
40,000,000
0
160,000,000
       
2,500
32,000
0
4,500
39,000
 
23


Table 1, Page 2
Mogul Energy International, Inc.
East Wadi Araba Concession
Production Splits - Cost Oil
Prospect Best Estimate
                                           
                     
Cost Recovery
             
 
Gross Production
Oil Price
Gross Revenue
 
Operating Costs - $/yr.
 
Available Cost Oil
Cost Oil Revenue Ceiling
Annual Costs For Recovery
Cumulative Outstanding Costs
Annual Cost Recovery
Cost Oil
 
Total Profit Oil
Total Daily Production
 
Contractors Share
Total Contractors Profit Oil
Year
STB/yr.
$/STB
$/yr.
 
Fixed
Variable
Total
 
STB/yr.
$/yr
$/yr.
$/yr.
$/yr.
STB/yr.
 
STB/yr.
STB/d
 
STB/yr.
STB/yr.
STB/yr.
2005
0
$52.00
$0
 
0
0
0
 
0
0
0
0
0
0
 
0
0
 
0
0
0
2006
0
$52.00
$0
 
0
0
0
 
0
0
0
0
0
0
 
0
0
 
0
0
0
2007
2,188,800
$52.00
$113,817,600
 
240,000
2,188,800
2,428,800
 
656,640
34,145,280
13,178,800
13,178,800
13,178,800
253,438
 
1,935,362
10,611
 
483,840
0
483,840
2008
6,568,800
$52.00
$341,577,600
 
720,000
6,568,800
7,288,800
 
1,970,640
102,473,280
20,038,800
20,038,800
20,038,800
385,362
 
6,183,438
16,941
 
1,545,860
0
1,545,860
2009
10,948,800
$52.00
$569,337,600
 
1,200,000
10,948,800
12,148,800
 
3,284,640
170,801,280
26,898,800
26,898,800
26,898,800
517,285
 
10,431,515
28,579
 
2,281,250
261,303
2,542,553
2010
14,598,800
$52.00
$759,137,600
 
1,680,000
14,598,800
16,278,800
 
4,379,640
227,741,280
33,028,800
33,028,800
33,028,800
635,169
 
13,963,631
38,257
 
2,281,250
967,726
3,248,976
2011
15,614,380
$52.00
$811,947,776
 
1,920,000
15,614,380
17,534,380
 
4,684,314
243,584,333
23,534,380
23,534,380
23,534,380
452,584
 
15,161,796
41,539
 
2,281,250
1,207,359
3,488,609
2012
14,047,546
$52.00
$730,472,370
 
1,920,000
14,047,546
15,967,546
 
4,214,264
219,141,711
19,967,546
19,967,546
19,967,546
383,991
 
13,663,554
37,434
 
2,281,250
907,711
3,188,961
2013
12,144,025
$52.00
$631,489,280
 
1,920,000
12,144,025
14,064,025
 
3,643,207
189,446,784
16,064,025
16,064,025
16,064,025
308,924
 
11,835,101
32,336
 
2,287,500
537,020
2,824,520
2014
10,674,097
$52.00
$555,053,020
 
1,920,000
10,674,097
12,594,097
 
3,202,229
166,515,906
12,594,097
12,594,097
12,594,097
242,194
 
10,431,902
28,425
 
2,293,750
251,380
2,545,130
2015
9,388,843
$52.00
$488,219,861
 
1,920,000
9,388,843
11,308,843
 
2,816,653
146,465,958
11,308,843
11,308,843
11,308,843
217,478
 
9,171,366
24,922
 
2,292,841
0
2,292,841
2016
8,265,082
$52.00
$429,784,273
 
1,920,000
8,265,082
10,185,082
 
2,479,525
128,935,282
10,185,082
10,185,082
10,185,082
195,867
 
8,069,215
21,868
 
2,017,304
0
2,017,304
2017
7,275,771
$52.00
$378,340,104
 
1,920,000
7,275,771
9,195,771
 
2,182,731
113,502,031
9,195,771
9,195,771
9,195,771
176,842
 
7,098,929
19,186
 
1,774,732
0
1,774,732
2018
6,404,831
$52.00
$333,051,226
 
1,920,000
6,404,831
8,324,831
 
1,921,449
99,915,368
8,324,831
8,324,831
8,324,831
160,093
 
6,244,738
16,832
 
1,561,185
0
1,561,185
2019
5,638,105
$52.00
$293,181,465
 
1,920,000
5,638,105
7,558,105
 
1,691,432
87,954,439
7,558,105
7,558,105
7,558,105
145,348
 
5,492,757
14,765
 
1,373,189
0
1,373,189
2020
4,963,128
$52.00
$258,082,655
 
1,920,000
4,963,128
6,883,128
 
1,488,938
77,424,796
6,883,128
6,883,128
6,883,128
132,368
 
4,830,760
12,951
 
1,207,690
0
1,207,690
2021
4,368,925
$52.00
$227,184,122
 
1,920,000
4,368,925
6,288,925
 
1,310,678
68,155,237
6,288,925
6,288,925
6,288,925
120,941
 
4,247,985
11,358
 
1,061,996
0
1,061,996
2022
3,845,835
$52.00
$199,983,424
 
1,920,000
3,845,835
5,765,835
 
1,153,751
59,995,027
5,765,835
5,765,835
5,765,835
110,881
 
3,734,954
9,960
 
933,738
0
933,738
2023
3,385,350
$52.00
$176,038,196
 
1,920,000
3,385,350
5,305,350
 
1,015,605
52,811,459
5,305,350
5,305,350
5,305,350
102,026
 
3,283,324
8,732
 
820,831
0
820,831
2024
2,979,980
$52.00
$154,958,970
 
1,920,000
2,979,980
4,899,980
 
893,994
46,487,691
4,899,980
4,899,980
4,899,980
94,230
 
2,885,750
7,655
 
721,437
0
721,437
2025
2,614,622
$52.00
$135,960,342
 
1,920,000
2,614,622
4,534,622
 
784,387
40,788,102
4,534,622
4,534,622
4,534,622
87,204
 
2,527,418
6,794
 
631,854
0
631,854
2026
2,293,018
$52.00
$119,236,960
 
1,920,000
2,293,018
4,213,018
 
687,906
35,771,088
4,213,018
4,213,018
4,213,018
81,020
 
2,211,999
5,930
 
553,000
0
553,000
2027
2,009,932
$52.00
$104,516,447
 
1,920,000
2,009,932
3,929,932
 
602,980
31,354,934
3,929,932
3,929,932
3,929,932
75,576
 
1,934,356
5,172
 
483,589
0
483,589
2028
1,760,750
$52.00
$91,559,021
 
1,920,000
1,760,750
3,680,750
 
528,225
27,467,706
3,680,750
3,680,750
3,680,750
70,784
 
1,689,967
4,507
 
422,492
0
422,492
2029
1,549,925
$52.00
$80,596,105
 
1,920,000
1,549,925
3,469,925
 
464,978
24,178,831
3,469,925
3,469,925
3,469,925
66,729
 
1,483,196
3,945
 
370,799
0
370,799
2030
1,364,333
$52.00
$70,945,338
 
1,920,000
1,364,333
3,284,333
 
409,300
21,283,601
3,284,333
3,284,333
3,284,333
63,160
 
1,301,173
3,451
 
325,293
0
325,293
2031
1,200,956
$52.00
$62,449,733
 
1,920,000
1,200,956
3,120,956
 
360,287
18,734,920
3,120,956
3,120,956
3,120,956
60,018
 
1,140,938
3,018
 
285,235
0
285,235
2032
1,057,136
$52.00
$54,971,078
 
1,920,000
1,057,136
2,977,136
 
317,141
16,491,323
2,977,136
2,977,136
2,977,136
57,253
 
999,883
2,638
 
249,971
0
249,971
2033
930,532
$52.00
$48,387,687
 
1,920,000
930,532
2,850,532
 
279,160
14,516,306
2,850,532
2,850,532
2,850,532
54,818
 
875,715
2,305
 
218,929
0
218,929
2034
819,085
$52.00
$42,592,432
 
1,920,000
819,085
2,739,085
 
245,726
12,777,730
2,739,085
2,739,085
2,739,085
52,675
 
766,411
2,012
 
191,603
0
191,603
2035
573,633
$52.00
$29,828,921
 
1,440,000
573,633
2,013,633
 
172,090
8,948,676
2,013,633
2,013,633
2,013,633
38,724
 
534,909
1,400
 
133,727
0
133,727
2036
357,578
$52.00
$18,594,034
 
960,000
357,578
1,317,578
 
107,273
5,578,210
1,317,578
1,317,578
1,317,578
25,338
 
332,240
867
 
83,060
0
83,060
2037
167,399
$52.00
$8,704,762
 
480,000
167,399
647,399
 
50,220
2,611,429
647,399
647,399
647,399
12,450
 
154,949
404
 
38,737
0
38,737
2038
0
$52.00
$0
 
0
0
0
 
0
0
0
0
0
0
 
0
0
 
0
0
0
2039
0
$52.00
$0
 
0
0
0
 
0
0
0
0
0
0
 
0
0
 
0
0
0
Total
160,000,000
 
$8,320,000,000
 
$52,800,000
$160,000,000
$212,800,000
     
279,800,000
 
279,800,000
5,380,769
 
154,619,231
   
33,489,183
4,132,500
37,621,683
 
24

 
Mogul Energy International, Inc.
East Wadi Araba Concession
Cash Flow and Net Present Value
Prospect Best Estimate
                                         
                         
Undiscounted
 
Discounted @
Year
 
Cost Oil STB/yr.
Net Profit Oil STB/yr.
Total Net Oil STB/yr.
 
Oil Price $/STB
 
Contractor's Total Revenue (Operating Cash Flow) M$/yr.
 
Total Operating Costs M$/yr.
Net Operating Income M$/yr.
Total Capital Costs M$/yr.
Contractor Net Cash Flow M$/yr.
 
Company Net Cash Flow M$/yr.
 
5% M$
10% M$
15% M$
20% M$
2005
 
0
0
0
 
$52.00
 
0
 
0
0
0
0
 
0
 
0
0
0
0
2006
 
0
0
0
 
$52.00
 
0
 
0
0
0
0
 
0
 
0
0
0
0
2007
 
253,438
483,840
737,279
 
$52.00
 
38,339
 
2,429
35,910
15,000
20,910
 
4,182
 
3,887
3,625
3,391
3,181
2008
 
385,362
1,545,860
1,931,221
 
$52.00
 
100,424
 
7,289
93,135
8,000
85,135
 
17,027
 
15,072
13,417
12,006
10,794
2009
 
517,285
2,542,553
3,059,838
 
$52.00
 
159,112
 
12,149
146,963
8,000
138,963
 
27,793
 
23,430
19,909
17,041
14,682
2010
 
635,169
3,248,976
3,884,145
 
$52.00
 
201,976
 
16,279
185,697
8,000
177,697
 
35,539
 
28,534
23,144
18,948
15,646
2011
 
452,584
3,488,609
3,941,193
 
$52.00
 
204,942
 
17,534
187,408
0
187,408
 
37,482
 
28,660
22,190
17,377
13,751
2012
 
383,991
3,188,961
3,572,952
 
$52.00
 
185,794
 
15,968
169,826
0
169,826
 
33,965
 
24,735
18,280
13,693
10,384
2013
 
308,924
2,824,520
3,133,444
 
$52.00
 
162,939
 
14,064
148,875
0
148,875
 
29,775
 
20,651
14,568
10,438
7,586
2014
 
242,194
2,545,130
2,787,325
 
$52.00
 
144,941
 
12,594
132,347
0
132,347
 
26,469
 
17,484
11,773
8,069
5,620
2015
 
217,478
2,292,841
2,510,319
 
$52.00
 
130,537
 
11,309
119,228
0
119,228
 
23,846
 
15,001
9,642
6,321
4,219
2016
 
195,867
2,017,304
2,213,171
 
$52.00
 
115,085
 
10,185
104,900
0
104,900
 
20,980
 
12,569
7,712
4,836
3,093
2017
 
176,842
1,774,732
1,951,574
 
$52.00
 
101,482
 
9,196
92,286
0
92,286
 
18,457
 
10,531
6,168
3,699
2,268
2018
 
160,093
1,561,185
1,721,277
 
$52.00
 
89,506
 
8,325
81,182
0
81,182
 
16,236
 
8,823
4,933
2,830
1,662
2019
 
145,348
1,373,189
1,518,537
 
$52.00
 
78,964
 
7,558
71,406
0
71,406
 
14,281
 
7,391
3,944
2,164
1,218
2020
 
132,368
1,207,690
1,340,058
 
$52.00
 
69,683
 
6,883
62,800
0
62,800
 
12,560
 
6,191
3,154
1,655
893
2021
 
120,941
1,061,996
1,182,937
 
$52.00
 
61,513
 
6,289
55,224
0
55,224
 
11,045
 
5,185
2,521
1,266
654
2022
 
110,881
933,738
1,044,620
 
$52.00
 
54,320
 
5,766
48,554
0
48,554
 
9,711
 
4,341
2,015
968
479
2023
 
102,026
820,831
922,857
 
$52.00
 
47,989
 
5,305
42,683
0
42,683
 
8,537
 
3,635
1,610
740
351
2024
 
94,230
721,437
815,668
 
$52.00
 
42,415
 
4,900
37,515
0
37,515
 
7,503
 
3,042
1,287
565
257
2025
 
87,204
631,854
719,059
 
$52.00
 
37,391
 
4,535
32,856
0
32,856
 
6,571
 
2,538
1,024
431
188
2026
 
81,020
553,000
634,019
 
$52.00
 
32,969
 
4,213
28,756
0
28,756
 
5,751
 
2,115
815
328
137
2027
 
75,576
483,589
559,165
 
$52.00
 
29,077
 
3,930
25,147
0
25,147
 
5,029
 
1,762
648
249
100
2028
 
70,784
422,492
493,275
 
$52.00
 
25,650
 
3,681
21,970
0
21,970
 
4,394
 
1,466
515
189
73
2029
 
66,729
370,799
437,528
 
$52.00
 
22,751
 
3,470
19,282
0
19,282
 
3,856
 
1,225
411
144
53
2030
 
63,160
325,293
388,454
 
$52.00
 
20,200
 
3,284
16,915
0
16,915
 
3,383
 
1,024
327
110
39
2031
 
60,018
285,235
345,253
 
$52.00
 
17,953
 
3,121
14,832
0
14,832
 
2,966
 
855
261
84
28
2032
 
57,253
249,971
307,223
 
$52.00
 
15,976
 
2,977
12,998
0
12,998
 
2,600
 
714
208
64
21
2033
 
54,818
218,929
273,747
 
$52.00
 
14,235
 
2,851
11,384
0
11,384
 
2,277
 
595
166
49
15
2034
 
52,675
191,603
244,277
 
$52.00
 
12,702
 
2,739
9,963
0
9,963
 
1,993
 
496
132
37
11
2035
 
38,724
133,727
172,451
 
$52.00
 
8,967
 
2,014
6,954
0
6,954
 
1,391
 
330
84
23
6
2036
 
25,338
83,060
108,398
 
$52.00
 
5,637
 
1,318
4,319
0
4,319
 
864
 
195
47
12
3
2037
 
12,450
38,737
51,187
 
$52.00
 
2,662
 
647
2,014
0
2,014
 
403
 
87
20
5
1
2038
 
0
0
0
 
$52.00
 
0
 
0
0
0
0
 
0
 
0
0
0
0
2039
 
0
0
0
 
$52.00
 
0
 
0
0
0
0
 
0
 
0
0
0
0
Total
 
5,380,769
37,621,683
43,002,452
     
2,236,128
 
212,800
2,023,328
39,000
1,984,328
 
396,866
 
252,561
174,551
127,732
97,414
 
25

 
Mogul Energy International, Inc.
East Wadi Araba Concession
Production and Capital Forecast
Prospect Low Estimate
                                     
         
Development Program -
                 
 
Single Well Production Profile
 
# Wells
# Wells
# Wells
# Wells
Total Oil Production
     
Capital Expenditures - $M
 
Year
STB/d
Days On
MSTB/yr
Well Count
4
4
4
4
STB/yr.
STB/d
 
Production Bonuses - $
 
Exploration
Drilling & Completion
Well Fac. & Tie-ins
Central Facilities
Total Capital
2005
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
 
0
 
0
0
0
0
0
2006
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
 
0
 
0
0
0
0
0
2007
2,000
182
364,800
2
1,459,200
0
0
0
1,459,200
8,000
 
0
 
2,500
8,000
0
4,500
15,000
2008
2,000
365
730,000
6
2,920,000
1,459,200
0
0
4,379,200
11,998
 
0
 
0
8,000
0
0
8,000
2009
2,000
365
730,000
10
2,920,000
2,920,000
1,459,200
0
7,299,200
19,998
 
0
 
0
8,000
0
0
8,000
2010
2,000
365
730,000
14
2,920,000
2,920,000
2,920,000
1,459,200
10,219,200
27,998
 
0
 
0
8,000
0
0
8,000
2011
1,707
365
622,982
16
2,491,930
2,920,000
2,920,000
2,920,000
11,251,930
30,827
 
0
 
0
0
0
0
0
2012
1,457
365
531,654
16
2,126,614
2,491,930
2,920,000
2,920,000
10,458,544
28,654
 
0
 
0
0
0
0
0
2013
1,243
366
454,956
16
1,819,826
2,126,614
2,491,930
2,920,000
9,358,369
25,569
 
0
 
0
0
0
0
0
2014
1,061
367
389,321
16
1,557,284
1,819,826
2,126,614
2,491,930
7,995,653
21,787
 
0
 
0
0
0
0
0
2015
905
368
333,152
16
1,332,608
1,557,284
1,819,826
2,126,614
6,836,331
18,577
 
0
 
0
0
0
0
0
2016
773
369
285,085
16
1,140,339
1,332,608
1,557,284
1,819,826
5,850,056
15,854
 
0
 
0
0
0
0
0
2017
659
370
243,951
16
975,803
1,140,339
1,332,608
1,557,284
5,006,033
13,530
 
0
 
0
0
0
0
0
2018
563
371
208,750
16
835,001
975,803
1,140,339
1,332,608
4,283,751
11,546
 
0
 
0
0
0
0
0
2019
480
372
178,628
16
714,511
835,001
975,803
1,140,339
3,665,654
9,854
 
0
 
0
0
0
0
0
2020
410
373
152,851
16
611,404
714,511
835,001
975,803
3,136,719
8,409
 
0
 
0
0
0
0
0
2021
350
374
130,793
16
523,171
611,404
714,511
835,001
2,684,087
7,177
 
0
 
0
0
0
0
0
2022
298
375
111,917
16
447,668
523,171
611,404
714,511
2,296,754
6,125
 
0
 
0
0
0
0
0
2023
255
376
95,765
16
383,059
447,668
523,171
611,404
1,965,302
5,227
 
0
 
0
0
0
0
0
2024
217
377
81,943
16
327,772
383,059
447,668
523,171
1,681,670
4,461
 
0
 
0
0
0
0
0
2025
185
372
69,003
16
276,011
327,772
383,059
447,668
1,434,511
3,856
 
0
 
0
0
0
0
0
2026
158
373
59,045
16
236,181
276,011
327,772
383,059
1,223,024
3,279
 
0
 
0
0
0
0
0
2027
135
374
50,524
16
202,098
236,181
276,011
327,772
1,042,062
2,786
 
0
 
0
0
0
0
0
2028
115
375
43,233
16
172,931
202,098
236,181
276,011
887,221
2,366
 
0
 
0
0
0
0
0
2029
98
376
36,993
16
147,973
172,931
202,098
236,181
759,183
2,019
 
0
 
0
0
0
0
0
2030
84
377
31,654
16
126,616
147,973
172,931
202,098
649,618
1,723
 
0
 
0
0
0
0
0
2031
0
378
0
12
0
126,616
147,973
172,931
447,521
1,184
 
0
 
0
0
0
0
0
2032
0
379
0
8
0
0
126,616
147,973
274,590
725
 
0
 
0
0
0
0
0
2033
0
380
0
4
0
0
0
126,616
126,616
333
 
0
 
0
0
0
0
0
2034
0
381
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
 
0
 
0
0
0
0
0
2035
0
382
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
 
0
 
0
0
0
0
0
2036
0
383
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
 
0
 
0
0
0
0
0
2037
0
384
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
 
0
 
0
0
0
0
0
2038
0
385
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
 
0
 
0
0
0
0
0
2039
0
386
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
 
0
 
0
0
0
0
0
Total
   
6,667,000
 
26,668,000
26,668,000
26,668,000
26,668,000
106,672,000
   
0
 
2,500
32,000
0
4,500
39,000

26


Mogul Energy International, Inc.
East Wadi Araba Concession
Production Splits - Cost Oil
Prospect Low Estimate
                                           
                     
Cost Recovery
             
 
Gross Production
Oil Price
Gross Revenue
 
Operating Costs - $/yr.
 
Available Cost Oil
Cost Oil Revenue Ceiling
Annual Costs For Recovery
Cumulative Outstanding Costs
Annual Cost Recovery
Cost Oil
 
Total Profit Oil
Total Daily Production
 
Contractors Share
Total Contractors Profit Oil
Year
STB/yr.
$/STB
$/yr.
 
Fixed
Variable
Total
 
STB/yr.
$/yr
$/yr.
$/yr.
$/yr.
STB/yr.
 
STB/yr.
STB/d
 
STB/yr.
STB/yr.
STB/yr.
2005
0
$52.00
$0
 
0
0
0
 
0
0
0
0
0
0
 
0
0
 
0
0
0
2006
0
$52.00
$0
 
0
0
0
 
0
0
0
0
0
0
 
0
0
 
0
0
0
2007
1,459,200
$52.00
$75,878,400
 
240,000
1,459,200
1,699,200
 
437,760
22,763,520
12,449,200
12,449,200
12,449,200
239,408
 
1,219,792
6,687
 
304,948
0
304,948
2008
4,379,200
$52.00
$227,718,400
 
720,000
4,379,200
5,099,200
 
1,313,760
68,315,520
17,849,200
17,849,200
17,849,200
343,254
 
4,035,946
11,057
 
1,008,987
0
1,008,987
2009
7,299,200
$52.00
$379,558,400
 
1,200,000
7,299,200
8,499,200
 
2,189,760
113,867,520
23,249,200
23,249,200
23,249,200
447,100
 
6,852,100
18,773
 
1,713,025
0
1,713,025
2010
10,219,200
$52.00
$531,398,400
 
1,680,000
10,219,200
11,899,200
 
3,065,760
159,419,520
28,649,200
28,649,200
28,649,200
550,946
 
9,668,254
26,488
 
2,281,250
108,651
2,389,901
2011
11,251,930
$52.00
$585,100,338
 
1,920,000
11,251,930
13,171,930
 
3,375,579
175,530,101
19,171,930
19,171,930
19,171,930
368,691
 
10,883,239
29,817
 
2,281,250
351,648
2,632,898
2012
10,458,544
$52.00
$543,844,269
 
1,920,000
10,458,544
12,378,544
 
3,137,563
163,153,281
16,378,544
16,378,544
16,378,544
314,972
 
10,143,572
27,791
 
2,281,250
203,714
2,484,964
2013
9,358,369
$52.00
$486,635,209
 
1,920,000
9,358,369
11,278,369
 
2,807,511
145,990,563
13,278,369
13,278,369
13,278,369
255,353
 
9,103,016
24,872
 
2,275,754
0
2,275,754
2014
7,995,653
$52.00
$415,773,956
 
1,920,000
7,995,653
9,915,653
 
2,398,696
124,732,187
9,915,653
9,915,653
9,915,653
190,686
 
7,804,967
21,267
 
1,951,242
0
1,951,242
2015
6,836,331
$52.00
$355,489,227
 
1,920,000
6,836,331
8,756,331
 
2,050,899
106,646,768
8,756,331
8,756,331
8,756,331
168,391
 
6,667,940
18,119
 
1,666,985
0
1,666,985
2016
5,850,056
$52.00
$304,202,905
 
1,920,000
5,850,056
7,770,056
 
1,755,017
91,260,871
7,770,056
7,770,056
7,770,056
149,424
 
5,700,632
15,449
 
1,425,158
0
1,425,158
2017
5,006,033
$52.00
$260,313,715
 
1,920,000
5,006,033
6,926,033
 
1,501,810
78,094,115
6,926,033
6,926,033
6,926,033
133,193
 
4,872,840
13,170
 
1,218,210
0
1,218,210
2018
4,283,751
$52.00
$222,755,042
 
1,920,000
4,283,751
6,203,751
 
1,285,125
66,826,513
6,203,751
6,203,751
6,203,751
119,303
 
4,164,448
11,225
 
1,041,112
0
1,041,112
2019
3,665,654
$52.00
$190,614,024
 
1,920,000
3,665,654
5,585,654
 
1,099,696
57,184,207
5,585,654
5,585,654
5,585,654
107,416
 
3,558,238
9,565
 
889,559
0
889,559
2020
3,136,719
$52.00
$163,109,400
 
1,920,000
3,136,719
5,056,719
 
941,016
48,932,820
5,056,719
5,056,719
5,056,719
97,245
 
3,039,475
8,149
 
759,869
0
759,869
2021
2,684,087
$52.00
$139,572,540
 
1,920,000
2,684,087
4,604,087
 
805,226
41,871,762
4,604,087
4,604,087
4,604,087
88,540
 
2,595,547
6,940
 
648,887
0
648,887
2022
2,296,754
$52.00
$119,431,212
 
1,920,000
2,296,754
4,216,754
 
689,026
35,829,364
4,216,754
4,216,754
4,216,754
81,091
 
2,215,663
5,908
 
553,916
0
553,916
2023
1,965,302
$52.00
$102,195,690
 
1,920,000
1,965,302
3,885,302
 
589,591
30,658,707
3,885,302
3,885,302
3,885,302
74,717
 
1,890,584
5,028
 
472,646
0
472,646
2024
1,681,670
$52.00
$87,446,860
 
1,920,000
1,681,670
3,601,670
 
504,501
26,234,058
3,601,670
3,601,670
3,601,670
69,263
 
1,612,407
4,277
 
403,102
0
403,102
2025
1,434,511
$52.00
$74,594,550
 
1,920,000
1,434,511
3,354,511
 
430,353
22,378,365
3,354,511
3,354,511
3,354,511
64,510
 
1,370,001
3,683
 
342,500
0
342,500
2026
1,223,024
$52.00
$63,597,230
 
1,920,000
1,223,024
3,143,024
 
366,907
19,079,169
3,143,024
3,143,024
3,143,024
60,443
 
1,162,581
3,117
 
290,645
0
290,645
2027
1,042,062
$52.00
$54,187,235
 
1,920,000
1,042,062
2,962,062
 
312,619
16,256,170
2,962,062
2,962,062
2,962,062
56,963
 
985,099
2,634
 
246,275
0
246,275
2028
887,221
$52.00
$46,135,510
 
1,920,000
887,221
2,807,221
 
266,166
13,840,653
2,807,221
2,807,221
2,807,221
53,985
 
833,236
2,222
 
208,309
0
208,309
2029
759,183
$52.00
$39,477,538
 
1,920,000
759,183
2,679,183
 
227,755
11,843,261
2,679,183
2,679,183
2,679,183
51,523
 
707,661
1,882
 
176,915
0
176,915
2030
649,618
$52.00
$33,780,160
 
1,920,000
649,618
2,569,618
 
194,886
10,134,048
2,569,618
2,569,618
2,569,618
49,416
 
600,203
1,592
 
150,051
0
150,051
2031
447,521
$52.00
$23,271,086
 
1,440,000
447,521
1,887,521
 
134,256
6,981,326
1,887,521
1,887,521
1,887,521
36,298
 
411,222
1,088
 
102,806
0
102,806
2032
274,590
$52.00
$14,278,656
 
960,000
274,590
1,234,590
 
82,377
4,283,597
1,234,590
1,234,590
1,234,590
23,742
 
250,847
662
 
62,712
0
62,712
2033
126,616
$52.00
$6,584,047
 
480,000
126,616
606,616
 
37,985
1,975,214
606,616
606,616
606,616
11,666
 
114,951
303
 
28,738
0
28,738
2034
0
$52.00
$0
 
0
0
0
 
0
0
0
0
0
0
 
0
0
 
0
0
0
2035
0
$52.00
$0
 
0
0
0
 
0
0
0
0
0
0
 
0
0
 
0
0
0
2036
0
$52.00
$0
 
0
0
0
 
0
0
0
0
0
0
 
0
0
 
0
0
0
2037
0
$52.00
$0
 
0
0
0
 
0
0
0
0
0
0
 
0
0
 
0
0
0
2038
0
$52.00
$0
 
0
0
0
 
0
0
0
0
0
0
 
0
0
 
0
0
0
2039
0
$52.00
$0
 
0
0
0
 
0
0
0
0
0
0
 
0
0
 
0
0
0
Total
106,672,000
 
$5,546,944,000
 
$45,120,000
$106,672,000
$151,792,000
     
218,792,000
218,792,000
218,792,000
4,207,538
 
102,464,462
   
24,786,099
664,013
25,450,112
                                     
25%
20%
 
                                     
0 to 25000
25001 +
 
 
27

 
Table 2, Page 3
Mogul Energy International, Inc.
East Wadi Araba Concession
Cash Flow and Net Present Value
Prospect Low Estimate
                                         
                         
Undiscounted
 
Discounted @
Year
 
Cost Oil STB/yr.
Net Profit Oil STB/yr.
Total Net Oil STB/yr.
 
Oil Price $/STB
 
Contractor's Total Revenue (Operating Cash Flow) M$/yr.
 
Total Operating Costs M$/yr.
Net Operating Income M$/yr.
Total Capital Costs M$/yr.
Contractor Net Cash Flow M$/yr.
 
Company Net Cash Flow M$/yr.
 
5% M$
10% M$
15% M$
20% M$
2005
 
0
0
0
 
$52.00
 
0
 
0
0
0
0
 
0
 
0
0
0
0
2006
 
0
0
0
 
$52.00
 
0
 
0
0
0
0
 
0
 
0
0
0
0
2007
 
239,408
304,948
544,356
 
$52.00
 
28,307
 
1,699
26,607
15,000
11,607
 
2,321
 
2,158
2,012
1,882
1,766
2008
 
343,254
1,008,987
1,352,240
 
$52.00
 
70,317
 
5,099
65,217
8,000
57,217
 
11,443
 
10,129
9,017
8,069
7,254
2009
 
447,100
1,713,025
2,160,125
 
$52.00
 
112,327
 
8,499
103,827
8,000
95,827
 
19,165
 
16,157
13,729
11,751
10,125
2010
 
550,946
2,389,901
2,940,847
 
$52.00
 
152,924
 
11,899
141,025
8,000
133,025
 
26,605
 
21,360
17,326
14,185
11,712
2011
 
368,691
2,632,898
3,001,589
 
$52.00
 
156,083
 
13,172
142,911
0
142,911
 
28,582
 
21,855
16,921
13,251
10,486
2012
 
314,972
2,484,964
2,799,936
 
$52.00
 
145,597
 
12,379
133,218
0
133,218
 
26,644
 
19,403
14,340
10,741
8,145
2013
 
255,353
2,275,754
2,531,107
 
$52.00
 
131,618
 
11,278
120,339
0
120,339
 
24,068
 
16,692
11,776
8,437
6,132
2014
 
190,686
1,951,242
2,141,927
 
$52.00
 
111,380
 
9,916
101,465
0
101,465
 
20,293
 
13,404
9,026
6,186
4,308
2015
 
168,391
1,666,985
1,835,376
 
$52.00
 
95,440
 
8,756
86,683
0
86,683
 
17,337
 
10,906
7,010
4,596
3,067
2016
 
149,424
1,425,158
1,574,582
 
$52.00
 
81,878
 
7,770
74,108
0
74,108
 
14,822
 
8,880
5,448
3,416
2,185
2017
 
133,193
1,218,210
1,351,403
 
$52.00
 
70,273
 
6,926
63,347
0
63,347
 
12,669
 
7,229
4,234
2,539
1,557
2018
 
119,303
1,041,112
1,160,415
 
$52.00
 
60,342
 
6,204
54,138
0
54,138
 
10,828
 
5,884
3,289
1,887
1,109
2019
 
107,416
889,559
996,976
 
$52.00
 
51,843
 
5,586
46,257
0
46,257
 
9,251
 
4,788
2,555
1,402
789
2020
 
97,245
759,869
857,113
 
$52.00
 
44,570
 
5,057
39,513
0
39,513
 
7,903
 
3,895
1,984
1,041
562
2021
 
88,540
648,887
737,427
 
$52.00
 
38,346
 
4,604
33,742
0
33,742
 
6,748
 
3,168
1,540
773
400
2022
 
81,091
553,916
635,007
 
$52.00
 
33,020
 
4,217
28,804
0
28,804
 
5,761
 
2,575
1,195
574
284
2023
 
74,717
472,646
547,363
 
$52.00
 
28,463
 
3,885
24,578
0
24,578
 
4,916
 
2,093
927
426
202
2024
 
69,263
403,102
472,365
 
$52.00
 
24,563
 
3,602
20,961
0
20,961
 
4,192
 
1,700
719
316
144
2025
 
64,510
342,500
407,010
 
$52.00
 
21,165
 
3,355
17,810
0
17,810
 
3,562
 
1,376
555
233
102
2026
 
60,443
290,645
351,088
 
$52.00
 
18,257
 
3,143
15,114
0
15,114
 
3,023
 
1,112
428
172
72
2027
 
56,963
246,275
303,238
 
$52.00
 
15,768
 
2,962
12,806
0
12,806
 
2,561
 
897
330
127
51
2028
 
53,985
208,309
262,294
 
$52.00
 
13,639
 
2,807
10,832
0
10,832
 
2,166
 
723
254
93
36
2029
 
51,523
176,915
228,438
 
$52.00
 
11,879
 
2,679
9,200
0
9,200
 
1,840
 
585
196
69
25
2030
 
49,416
150,051
199,466
 
$52.00
 
10,372
 
2,570
7,803
0
7,803
 
1,561
 
472
151
51
18
2031
 
36,298
102,806
139,104
 
$52.00
 
7,233
 
1,888
5,346
0
5,346
 
1,069
 
308
94
30
10
2032
 
23,742
62,712
86,454
 
$52.00
 
4,496
 
1,235
3,261
0
3,261
 
652
 
179
52
16
5
2033
 
11,666
28,738
40,403
 
$52.00
 
2,101
 
607
1,494
0
1,494
 
299
 
78
22
6
2
2034
 
0
0
0
 
$52.00
 
0
 
0
0
0
0
 
0
 
0
0
0
0
2035
 
0
0
0
 
$52.00
 
0
 
0
0
0
0
 
0
 
0
0
0
0
2036
 
0
0
0
 
$52.00
 
0
 
0
0
0
0
 
0
 
0
0
0
0
2037
 
0
0
0
 
$52.00
 
0
 
0
0
0
0
 
0
 
0
0
0
0
2038
 
0
0
0
 
$52.00
 
0
 
0
0
0
0
 
0
 
0
0
0
0
2039
 
0
0
0
 
$52.00
 
0
 
0
0
0
0
 
0
 
0
0
0
0
Total
 
4,207,538
25,450,112
29,657,651
     
1,542,198
 
151,792
1,390,406
39,000
1,351,406
 
270,281
 
178,006
125,133
92,273
70,549
                         
Company Interest =
20%
         

28

 
Table 3, Page 1
Mogul Energy International, Inc.
East Wadi Araba Concession
Production and Capital Forecast
Prospect High Estimate
                                     
         
Development Program -
                 
 
Single Well Production Profile
 
# Wells
# Wells
# Wells
# Wells
Total Oil Production
     
Capital Expenditures - $M
 
Year
STB/d
Days On
MSTB/yr
Well Count
4
4
4
4
STB/yr.
STB/d
 
Production Bonuses - $
 
Exploration
Drilling & Completion
Well Fac. & Tie-ins
Central Facilities
Total Capital
2005
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
 
0
 
0
0
0
0
0
2006
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
 
0
 
0
0
0
0
0
2007
4,000
182
729,600
2
2,918,400
0
0
0
2,918,400
16,000
 
0
 
2,500
8,000
0
4,500
15,000
2008
4,000
365
1,460,000
6
5,840,000
2,918,400
0
0
8,758,400
23,996
 
0
 
0
8,000
0
0
8,000
2009
4,000
365
1,460,000
10
5,840,000
5,840,000
2,918,400
0
14,598,400
39,996
 
0
 
0
8,000
0
0
8,000
2010
3,500
365
1,277,500
14
5,110,000
5,840,000
5,840,000
2,918,400
19,708,400
53,996
 
0
 
0
8,000
0
0
8,000
2011
3,048
365
1,112,620
16
4,450,482
5,110,000
5,840,000
5,840,000
21,240,482
58,193
 
0
 
0
0
0
0
0
2012
2,655
365
969,021
16
3,876,084
4,450,482
5,110,000
5,840,000
19,276,566
52,813
 
0
 
0
0
0
0
0
2013
2,312
366
846,267
16
3,385,069
3,876,084
4,450,482
5,110,000
16,821,635
45,961
 
0
 
0
0
0
0
0
2014
2,014
367
739,058
16
2,956,233
3,385,069
3,876,084
4,450,482
14,667,867
39,967
 
0
 
0
0
0
0
0
2015
1,754
368
645,426
16
2,581,704
2,956,233
3,385,069
3,876,084
12,799,090
34,780
 
0
 
0
0
0
0
0
2016
1,528
369
563,652
16
2,254,609
2,581,704
2,956,233
3,385,069
11,177,615
30,292
 
0
 
0
0
0
0
0
2017
1,330
370
492,235
16
1,968,941
2,254,609
2,581,704
2,956,233
9,761,487
26,382
 
0
 
0
0
0
0
0
2018
1,159
371
429,864
16
1,719,456
1,968,941
2,254,609
2,581,704
8,524,710
22,978
 
0
 
0
0
0
0
0
2019
1,009
372
375,393
16
1,501,572
1,719,456
1,968,941
2,254,609
7,444,577
20,012
 
0
 
0
0
0
0
0
2020
879
373
327,822
16
1,311,288
1,501,572
1,719,456
1,968,941
6,501,257
17,430
 
0
 
0
0
0
0
0
2021
765
374
286,277
16
1,145,110
1,311,288
1,501,572
1,719,456
5,677,426
15,180
 
0
 
0
0
0
0
0
2022
667
375
249,996
16
999,984
1,145,110
1,311,288
1,501,572
4,957,954
13,221
 
0
 
0
0
0
0
0
2023
581
376
218,311
16
873,244
999,984
1,145,110
1,311,288
4,329,626
11,515
 
0
 
0
0
0
0
0
2024
506
377
190,641
16
762,562
873,244
999,984
1,145,110
3,780,899
10,029
 
0
 
0
0
0
0
0
2025
440
372
163,834
16
655,334
762,562
873,244
999,984
3,291,124
8,847
 
0
 
0
0
0
0
0
2026
384
373
143,072
16
572,288
655,334
762,562
873,244
2,863,429
7,677
 
0
 
0
0
0
0
0
2027
334
374
124,941
16
499,763
572,288
655,334
762,562
2,489,948
6,658
 
0
 
0
0
0
0
0
2028
291
375
109,106
16
436,425
499,763
572,288
655,334
2,163,811
5,770
 
0
 
0
0
0
0
0
2029
253
376
95,278
16
381,112
436,425
499,763
572,288
1,889,588
5,026
 
0
 
0
0
0
0
0
2030
221
377
83,202
16
332,807
381,112
436,425
499,763
1,650,106
4,377
 
0
 
0
0
0
0
0
2031
192
378
72,656
16
290,622
332,807
381,112
436,425
1,440,966
3,812
 
0
 
0
0
0
0
0
2032
167
379
63,446
16
253,783
290,622
332,807
381,112
1,258,323
3,320
 
0
 
0
0
0
0
0
2033
146
380
55,403
16
221,612
253,783
290,622
332,807
1,098,823
2,892
 
0
 
0
0
0
0
0
2034
127
381
48,379
16
193,517
221,612
253,783
290,622
959,534
2,518
 
0
 
0
0
0
0
0
2035
0
382
0
12
0
193,517
221,612
253,783
668,912
1,751
 
0
 
0
0
0
0
0
2036
0
383
0
8
0
0
193,517
221,612
415,129
1,084
 
0
 
0
0
0
0
0
2037
0
384
0
4
0
0
0
193,517
193,517
504
 
0
 
0
0
0
0
0
2038
0
385
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
 
0
 
0
0
0
0
0
2039
0
386
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
 
0
 
0
0
0
0
0
Total
   
13,333,000
 
53,332,000
53,332,000
53,332,000
53,332,000
213,328,000
   
0
 
2,500
32,000
0
4,500
39,000
 
29

 
Table 3, Page 2
Mogul Energy International, Inc.
East Wadi Araba Concession
Production Splits - Cost Oil
Prospect High Estimate
                                           
                     
Cost Recovery
             
 
Gross Production
Oil Price
Gross Revenue
 
Operating Costs - $/yr.
 
Available Cost Oil
Cost Oil Revenue Ceiling
Annual Costs For Recovery
Cumulative Outstanding Costs
Annual Cost Recovery
Cost Oil
 
Total Profit Oil
Total Daily Production
 
Contractors Share
Total Contractors Profit Oil
Year
STB/yr.
$/STB
$/yr.
 
Fixed
Variable
Total
 
STB/yr.
$/yr
$/yr.
$/yr.
$/yr.
STB/yr.
 
STB/yr.
STB/d
 
STB/yr.
STB/yr.
STB/yr.
2005
0
$52.00
$0
 
0
0
0
 
0
0
0
0
0
0
 
0
0
 
0
0
0
2006
0
$52.00
$0
 
0
0
0
 
0
0
0
0
0
0
 
0
0
 
0
0
0
2007
2,918,400
$52.00
$151,756,800
 
240,000
2,918,400
3,158,400
 
875,520
45,527,040
13,908,400
13,908,400
13,908,400
267,469
 
2,650,931
14,534
 
662,733
0
662,733
2008
8,758,400
$52.00
$455,436,800
 
720,000
8,758,400
9,478,400
 
2,627,520
136,631,040
22,228,400
22,228,400
22,228,400
427,469
 
8,330,931
22,824
 
2,082,733
0
2,082,733
2009
14,598,400
$52.00
$759,116,800
 
1,200,000
14,598,400
15,798,400
 
4,379,520
227,735,040
30,548,400
30,548,400
30,548,400
587,469
 
14,010,931
38,386
 
2,281,250
977,186
3,258,436
2010
19,708,400
$52.00
$1,024,836,800
 
1,680,000
19,708,400
21,388,400
 
5,912,520
307,451,040
38,138,400
38,138,400
38,138,400
733,431
 
18,974,969
51,986
 
2,281,250
1,969,994
4,251,244
2011
21,240,482
$52.00
$1,104,505,055
 
1,920,000
21,240,482
23,160,482
 
6,372,145
331,351,516
29,160,482
29,160,482
29,160,482
560,778
 
20,679,703
56,657
 
2,281,250
2,310,941
4,592,191
2012
19,276,566
$52.00
$1,002,381,415
 
1,920,000
19,276,566
21,196,566
 
5,782,970
300,714,425
25,196,566
25,196,566
25,196,566
484,549
 
18,792,016
51,485
 
2,281,250
1,933,403
4,214,653
2013
16,821,635
$52.00
$874,725,000
 
1,920,000
16,821,635
18,741,635
 
5,046,490
262,417,500
20,741,635
20,741,635
20,741,635
398,878
 
16,422,757
44,871
 
2,287,500
1,454,551
3,742,051
2014
14,667,867
$52.00
$762,729,104
 
1,920,000
14,667,867
16,587,867
 
4,400,360
228,818,731
16,587,867
16,587,867
16,587,867
318,997
 
14,348,870
39,098
 
2,293,750
1,034,774
3,328,524
2015
12,799,090
$52.00
$665,552,677
 
1,920,000
12,799,090
14,719,090
 
3,839,727
199,665,803
14,719,090
14,719,090
14,719,090
283,059
 
12,516,031
34,011
 
2,300,000
663,206
2,963,206
2016
11,177,615
$52.00
$581,235,973
 
1,920,000
11,177,615
13,097,615
 
3,353,284
174,370,792
13,097,615
13,097,615
13,097,615
251,877
 
10,925,738
29,609
 
2,306,250
340,148
2,646,398
2017
9,761,487
$52.00
$507,597,316
 
1,920,000
9,761,487
11,681,487
 
2,928,446
152,279,195
11,681,487
11,681,487
11,681,487
224,644
 
9,536,843
25,775
 
2,312,500
57,369
2,369,869
2018
8,524,710
$52.00
$443,284,910
 
1,920,000
8,524,710
10,444,710
 
2,557,413
132,985,473
10,444,710
10,444,710
10,444,710
200,860
 
8,323,850
22,436
 
2,080,963
0
2,080,963
2019
7,444,577
$52.00
$387,118,026
 
1,920,000
7,444,577
9,364,577
 
2,233,373
116,135,408
9,364,577
9,364,577
9,364,577
180,088
 
7,264,489
19,528
 
1,816,122
0
1,816,122
2020
6,501,257
$52.00
$338,065,361
 
1,920,000
6,501,257
8,421,257
 
1,950,377
101,419,608
8,421,257
8,421,257
8,421,257
161,947
 
6,339,310
16,995
 
1,584,827
0
1,584,827
2021
5,677,426
$52.00
$295,226,138
 
1,920,000
5,677,426
7,597,426
 
1,703,228
88,567,841
7,597,426
7,597,426
7,597,426
146,104
 
5,531,321
14,790
 
1,382,830
0
1,382,830
2022
4,957,954
$52.00
$257,813,588
 
1,920,000
4,957,954
6,877,954
 
1,487,386
77,344,076
6,877,954
6,877,954
6,877,954
132,268
 
4,825,685
12,868
 
1,206,421
0
1,206,421
2023
4,329,626
$52.00
$225,140,530
 
1,920,000
4,329,626
6,249,626
 
1,298,888
67,542,159
6,249,626
6,249,626
6,249,626
120,185
 
4,209,440
11,195
 
1,052,360
0
1,052,360
2024
3,780,899
$52.00
$196,606,769
 
1,920,000
3,780,899
5,700,899
 
1,134,270
58,982,031
5,700,899
5,700,899
5,700,899
109,633
 
3,671,267
9,738
 
917,817
0
917,817
2025
3,291,124
$52.00
$171,138,453
 
1,920,000
3,291,124
5,211,124
 
987,337
51,341,536
5,211,124
5,211,124
5,211,124
100,214
 
3,190,910
8,578
 
797,728
0
797,728
2026
2,863,429
$52.00
$148,898,304
 
1,920,000
2,863,429
4,783,429
 
859,029
44,669,491
4,783,429
4,783,429
4,783,429
91,989
 
2,771,440
7,430
 
692,860
0
692,860
2027
2,489,948
$52.00
$129,477,280
 
1,920,000
2,489,948
4,409,948
 
746,984
38,843,184
4,409,948
4,409,948
4,409,948
84,807
 
2,405,141
6,431
 
601,285
0
601,285
2028
2,163,811
$52.00
$112,518,153
 
1,920,000
2,163,811
4,083,811
 
649,143
33,755,446
4,083,811
4,083,811
4,083,811
78,535
 
2,085,276
5,561
 
521,319
0
521,319
2029
1,889,588
$52.00
$98,258,578
 
1,920,000
1,889,588
3,809,588
 
566,876
29,477,573
3,809,588
3,809,588
3,809,588
73,261
 
1,816,327
4,831
 
454,082
0
454,082
2030
1,650,106
$52.00
$85,805,526
 
1,920,000
1,650,106
3,570,106
 
495,032
25,741,658
3,570,106
3,570,106
3,570,106
68,656
 
1,581,450
4,195
 
395,363
0
395,363
2031
1,440,966
$52.00
$74,930,211
 
1,920,000
1,440,966
3,360,966
 
432,290
22,479,063
3,360,966
3,360,966
3,360,966
64,634
 
1,376,332
3,641
 
344,083
0
344,083
2032
1,258,323
$52.00
$65,432,813
 
1,920,000
1,258,323
3,178,323
 
377,497
19,629,844
3,178,323
3,178,323
3,178,323
61,122
 
1,197,202
3,159
 
299,300
0
299,300
2033
1,098,823
$52.00
$57,138,807
 
1,920,000
1,098,823
3,018,823
 
329,647
17,141,642
3,018,823
3,018,823
3,018,823
58,054
 
1,040,769
2,739
 
260,192
0
260,192
2034
959,534
$52.00
$49,895,769
 
1,920,000
959,534
2,879,534
 
287,860
14,968,731
2,879,534
2,879,534
2,879,534
55,376
 
904,158
2,373
 
226,040
0
226,040
2035
668,912
$52.00
$34,783,421
 
1,440,000
668,912
2,108,912
 
200,674
10,435,026
2,108,912
2,108,912
2,108,912
40,556
 
628,356
1,645
 
157,089
0
157,089
2036
415,129
$52.00
$21,586,716
 
960,000
415,129
1,375,129
 
124,539
6,476,015
1,375,129
1,375,129
1,375,129
26,445
 
388,684
1,015
 
97,171
0
97,171
2037
193,517
$52.00
$10,062,908
 
480,000
193,517
673,517
 
58,055
3,018,873
673,517
673,517
673,517
12,952
 
180,565
470
 
45,141
0
45,141
2038
0
$52.00
$0
 
0
0
0
 
0
0
0
0
0
0
 
0
0
 
0
0
0
2039
0
$52.00
$0
 
0
0
0
 
0
0
0
0
0
0
 
0
0
 
0
0
0
Total
213,328,000
 
$11,093,056,000
 
$52,800,000
$213,328,000
$266,128,000
   
3,327,916,800
333,128,000
333,128,000
333,128,000
6,406,308
 
206,921,692
   
38,303,459
10,741,572
49,045,030
                                     
25%
20%
 
                                     
0 to 25000
25001 +
 
 
30

 
Table 3, Page 3
Mogul Energy International, Inc.
East Wadi Araba Concession
Cash Flow and Net Present Value
Prospect High Estimate
                                         
                         
Undiscounted
 
Discounted @
Year
 
Cost Oil STB/yr.
Net Profit Oil STB/yr.
Total Net Oil STB/yr.
 
Oil Price $/STB
 
Contractor's Total Revenue (Operating Cash Flow) M$/yr.
 
Total Operating Costs M$/yr.
Net Operating Income M$/yr.
Total Capital Costs M$/yr.
Contractor Net Cash Flow M$/yr.
 
Company Net Cash Flow M$/yr.
 
5% M$
10% M$
15% M$
20% M$
2005
 
0
0
0
 
$52.00
 
0
 
0
0
0
0
 
0
 
0
0
0
0
2006
 
0
0
0
 
$52.00
 
0
 
0
0
0
0
 
0
 
0
0
0
0
2007
 
267,469
662,733
930,202
 
$52.00
 
48,371
 
3,158
45,212
15,000
30,212
 
6,042
 
5,616
5,237
4,900
4,597
2008
 
427,469
2,082,733
2,510,202
 
$52.00
 
130,531
 
9,478
121,052
8,000
113,052
 
22,610
 
20,014
17,817
15,943
14,334
2009
 
587,469
3,258,436
3,845,905
 
$52.00
 
199,987
 
15,798
184,189
8,000
176,189
 
35,238
 
29,706
25,243
21,606
18,615
2010
 
733,431
4,251,244
4,984,675
 
$52.00
 
259,203
 
21,388
237,815
8,000
229,815
 
45,963
 
36,903
29,932
24,506
20,234
2011
 
560,778
4,592,191
5,152,969
 
$52.00
 
267,954
 
23,160
244,794
0
244,794
 
48,959
 
37,436
28,985
22,698
17,961
2012
 
484,549
4,214,653
4,699,203
 
$52.00
 
244,359
 
21,197
223,162
0
223,162
 
44,632
 
32,503
24,021
17,993
13,645
2013
 
398,878
3,742,051
4,140,929
 
$52.00
 
215,328
 
18,742
196,587
0
196,587
 
39,317
 
27,269
19,237
13,783
10,017
2014
 
318,997
3,328,524
3,647,521
 
$52.00
 
189,671
 
16,588
173,083
0
173,083
 
34,617
 
22,865
15,397
10,552
7,349
2015
 
283,059
2,963,206
3,246,266
 
$52.00
 
168,806
 
14,719
154,087
0
154,087
 
30,817
 
19,386
12,461
8,169
5,452
2016
 
251,877
2,646,398
2,898,275
 
$52.00
 
150,710
 
13,098
137,613
0
137,613
 
27,523
 
16,489
10,117
6,344
4,058
2017
 
224,644
2,369,869
2,594,513
 
$52.00
 
134,915
 
11,681
123,233
0
123,233
 
24,647
 
14,063
8,236
4,940
3,028
2018
 
200,860
2,080,963
2,281,822
 
$52.00
 
118,655
 
10,445
108,210
0
108,210
 
21,642
 
11,761
6,575
3,772
2,216
2019
 
180,088
1,816,122
1,996,210
 
$52.00
 
103,803
 
9,365
94,438
0
94,438
 
18,888
 
9,775
5,216
2,863
1,612
2020
 
161,947
1,584,827
1,746,775
 
$52.00
 
90,832
 
8,421
82,411
0
82,411
 
16,482
 
8,124
4,138
2,172
1,172
2021
 
146,104
1,382,830
1,528,935
 
$52.00
 
79,505
 
7,597
71,907
0
71,907
 
14,381
 
6,751
3,283
1,648
852
2022
 
132,268
1,206,421
1,338,690
 
$52.00
 
69,612
 
6,878
62,734
0
62,734
 
12,547
 
5,609
2,603
1,250
620
2023
 
120,185
1,052,360
1,172,545
 
$52.00
 
60,972
 
6,250
54,723
0
54,723
 
10,945
 
4,660
2,065
948
450
2024
 
109,633
917,817
1,027,449
 
$52.00
 
53,427
 
5,701
47,726
0
47,726
 
9,545
 
3,871
1,637
719
327
2025
 
100,214
797,728
897,941
 
$52.00
 
46,693
 
5,211
41,482
0
41,482
 
8,296
 
3,204
1,293
544
237
2026
 
91,989
692,860
784,849
 
$52.00
 
40,812
 
4,783
36,029
0
36,029
 
7,206
 
2,650
1,021
411
172
2027
 
84,807
601,285
686,092
 
$52.00
 
35,677
 
4,410
31,267
0
31,267
 
6,253
 
2,191
806
310
124
2028
 
78,535
521,319
599,854
 
$52.00
 
31,192
 
4,084
27,109
0
27,109
 
5,422
 
1,809
635
234
90
2029
 
73,261
454,082
527,343
 
$52.00
 
27,422
 
3,810
23,612
0
23,612
 
4,722
 
1,500
503
177
65
2030
 
68,656
395,363
464,018
 
$52.00
 
24,129
 
3,570
20,559
0
20,559
 
4,112
 
1,244
398
134
47
2031
 
64,634
344,083
408,717
 
$52.00
 
21,253
 
3,361
17,892
0
17,892
 
3,578
 
1,031
315
101
34
2032
 
61,122
299,300
360,422
 
$52.00
 
18,742
 
3,178
15,564
0
15,564
 
3,113
 
854
249
77
25
2033
 
58,054
260,192
318,247
 
$52.00
 
16,549
 
3,019
13,530
0
13,530
 
2,706
 
707
197
58
18
2034
 
55,376
226,040
281,415
 
$52.00
 
14,634
 
2,880
11,754
0
11,754
 
2,351
 
585
155
44
13
2035
 
40,556
157,089
197,645
 
$52.00
 
10,278
 
2,109
8,169
0
8,169
 
1,634
 
387
98
26
8
2036
 
26,445
97,171
123,616
 
$52.00
 
6,428
 
1,375
5,053
0
5,053
 
1,011
 
228
55
14
4
2037
 
12,952
45,141
58,094
 
$52.00
 
3,021
 
674
2,347
0
2,347
 
469
 
101
23
6
2
2038
 
0
0
0
 
$52.00
 
0
 
0
0
0
0
 
0
 
0
0
0
0
2039
 
0
0
0
 
$52.00
 
0
 
0
0
0
0
 
0
 
0
0
0
0
Total
 
6,406,308
49,045,030
55,451,338
     
2,883,470
 
266,128
2,617,342
39,000
2,578,342
 
515,668
 
329,294
227,951
166,942
127,376
                         
Company Interest =
20%
         

31

 
 
32

 
Figure 3c
(cont'd)
 
Mogul Energy International Inc.
East Wadi Araba Concession, Egypt
Prospect Analysis
Prospect High Estimate

ECONOMIC PARAMETERS
                     
                       
Net Capital Exposure, M$
     
2000.0
             
Probability of success, %
     
19
             
                       
TOTAL VALUES
                     
                       
Discount Rate, %
   
undisc.
   
5
   
10
   
15
   
20
 
Unrisked Value, M$
   
515668.0
   
329294.0
   
227957.0
   
166942.0
   
127376.0
 
Risked Value, M$
   
97392.3
   
61608.5
   
42151.7
   
30436.9
   
22840.2
 
Minimum Prob. of Success Req'd, %
   
0.4
   
0.6
   
0.9
   
1.2
   
1.5
 
 
 
     
 
33

 
 
34

 
Figure 3a
(cont'd)
 
Mogul Energy International Inc.
East Wadi Araba Concession, Egypt
Prospect Analysis
Prospect Best Estimate

ECONOMIC PARAMETERS
                     
                       
Net Capital Exposure, M$
         
2000.0
                   
Probability of success, %
         
30
                   
                                 
TOTALVALUES 
                               
                                 
Discount Rate, %
   
undisc.
   
5
   
10
   
15
   
20
 
Unrisked Value, M$
   
396866.0
   
252561.0
   
174551.0
   
127732.0
   
97414.0
 
Risked Value, M$
   
117659.8
   
74368.3
   
50965.3
   
36919.6
   
27824.2
 
Minimum Prob. of Success Req'd, %
   
0.5
   
0.8
   
1.1
   
1.5
   
2.0
 

 
     
 
35

 
 
36

 
Figure 3b
(cont'd)
 
Mogul Energy International Inc.
East Wadi Araba Concession, Egypt
Prospect Analysis
Prospect Low Estimate

ECONOMIC PARAMETERS
                     
                       
Net Capital Exposure, M$
         
2000.0
                   
Probability of success, %
         
41
                   
                                 
TOTAL VALUES
                               
                                 
Discount Rate, %
   
undisc.
   
5
   
10
   
15
   
20
 
Unrisked Value, M$
   
270281.0
   
178006.0
   
125133.0
   
92273.0
   
70549.0
 
Risked Value, M$
   
109090.6
   
71442.5
   
49870.3
   
36463.4
   
27600.0
 
Minimum Prob. of Success Req'd, %
   
0.7
   
1.1
   
1.6
   
2.1
   
2.8
 
 
 
    
 
 
37