EX-99.3 9 dex993.htm FORECASTED FINANCIAL STATEMENTS Forecasted Financial Statements

Exhibit 99.3

LIBERTY RENEWABLE FUELS, LLC

(Parent Company Only)

FORECASTED FINANCIAL STATEMENTS

For Years 0 through 5

with Accountants’ Compilation Report


LOGO

ACCOUNTANTS’ COMPILATION REPORT

To the Board of Directors

Liberty Renewable Fuels, LLC:

We have compiled the accompanying forecasted balance sheets and related statements of operations and members’ equity and cash flows of Liberty Renewable Fuels, LLC—Parent Company Only (a development stage company) as of and for the years ended zero (development and construction period) through five, in accordance with attestation standards established by the American Institute of Certified Public Accountants.

A compilation is limited to presenting in the form of a forecast, information that is the representation of management and does not include evaluation of the support for the assumptions underlying the forecast. We have not examined the forecast and, accordingly, do not express any other form of assurance on the accompanying statements or assumptions. Furthermore, there will be differences between the forecasted and actual results because events and circumstances frequently do not occur as expected, and those differences may be material. We have no responsibility to update this report for events and circumstances occurring after the date of this report.

 

Respectfully submitted,
LOGO
Kennedy and Coe, LLC

May 15, 2007

 

250 NORTH ROCK ROAD, SUITE 270, WICHITA, KS 67206-2242. PHONE (316) 685-0222. FAX (316) 685-1868. WWW.KCOE.COM

Members of: American Institute of Certified Public Accountants. Offices in Kansas, Oklahoma and Colorado


LIBERTY RENEWABLE FUELS, LLC

(Parent Company Only)

FORECASTED BALANCE SHEETS

YEARS ZERO THROUGH FIVE

 

    Construction
(Year 0)
  Year 1     Year 2     Year 3     Year 4     Year 5  

ASSETS

           

Current Assets:

           

Cash & Cash Equivalents

  $ 14,431,197   $ 16,689,193     $ 38,054,696     $ 59,730,205     $ 82,019,465     $ 99,307,148  

Accounts Receivable

    —       11,580,034       12,410,364       12,888,250       13,134,536       13,141,879  

Grain Futures Contracts

    —       4,000,000       5,000,000       5,000,000       5,000,000       5,000,000  

Inventory—Grain and Chemicals

    —       14,273,630       14,452,795       14,601,822       14,457,842       14,457,842  

Inventory—Ethanol

    —       4,821,918       5,014,795       5,207,671       5,304,110       5,304,110  

Inventory—Distillers Wet Grain

    —       1,162,427       1,208,924       1,255,421       1,278,669       1,278,669  
                                             

Total Current Assets

    14,431,197     52,527,201       76,141,572       98,683,369       121,194,622       138,489,648  
                                             

Property, Plant & Equipment

           

Land

    2,960,840     2,960,840       2,960,840       2,960,840       2,960,840       2,960,840  

Property and Equipment

    180,606,160     181,106,160       182,106,160       183,106,160       184,106,160       185,106,160  
                                             

Total Property, Plant & Equipment, at cost

    183,567,000     184,067,000       185,067,000       186,067,000       187,067,000       188,067,000  

Less Accumulated Depreciation

    —       (12,073,744 )     (24,214,155 )     (36,421,232 )     (48,694,976 )     (61,035,387 )
                                             

Net Property, Plant & Equipment

    183,567,000     171,993,256       160,852,845       149,645,768       138,372,024       127,031,613  
                                             

Other Assets

           

Restricted Cash

    4,873,103     4,873,103       4,873,103       4,873,103       4,873,103       9,293,642  

Utility Deposits

    4,500,000     2,850,000       1,200,000       800,000       400,000       —    

Finance Fees

    4,023,000     4,023,000       4,023,000       4,023,000       4,023,000       4,023,000  

Less Accumulated Amortization

    —       (402,300 )     (804,600 )     (1,206,900 )     (1,609,200 )     (2,011,500 )
                                             

Total Other Assets

    13,396,103     11,343,803       9,291,503       8,489,203       7,686,903       11,305,142  
                                             

Total Assets

  $ 211,394,300   $ 235,864,260     $ 246,285,921     $ 256,818,340     $ 267,253,549     $ 276,826,403  
                                             

LIABILITIES & EQUITIES

           

Current Liabilities:

           

Accounts Payable

  $ —     $ 8,561,537     $ 9,058,654     $ 9,310,652     $ 9,426,387     $ 9,388,486  

Current maturities of LT bond debt

    —       4,835,118       5,200,134       5,592,706       6,014,914       6,468,996  

Current maturities of LT bank debt

    —       6,107,102       7,326,426       8,158,576       8,904,510       4,108,009  
                                             

Total Current Liabilities

    —       19,503,757       21,585,214       23,061,935       24,345,812       19,965,491  
                                             

Long-term bond debt, Less current maturities

    63,750,000     54,419,158       49,219,024       43,626,318       37,611,403       31,142,407  

Long-term bank debt, Less current maturities

    54,850,000     43,660,041       36,333,614       28,175,038       19,270,528       15,162,519  
                                             

Total Long-term Debt, Less current maturities

    118,600,000     98,079,199       85,552,638       71,801,356       56,881,931       46,304,926  
                                             

Total Liabilities

    118,600,000     117,582,956       107,137,852       94,863,291       81,227,743       66,270,417  
                                             

Total Members’ Equity

    92,794,300     118,281,304       139,148,068       161,955,049       186,025,807       210,555,986  
                                             

Total Liabilities & Members’ Equity

  $ 211,394,300   $ 235,864,260     $ 246,285,921     $ 256,818,340     $ 267,253,549     $ 276,826,403  
                                             

See accompanying summaries of significant assumptions and accounting policies.

See Accountants’ Compilation Report

 

2


LIBERTY RENEWABLE FUELS, LLC

(Parent Company Only)

FORECASTED STATEMENTS OF OPERATIONS AND MEMBERS’ EQUITY

YEARS ENDING ZERO THROUGH FIVE

 

    Year Zero     Year 1     Year 2     Year 3     Year 4     Year 5  

Revenue

           

Ethanol

  $ —       $ 213,972,603     $ 228,558,904     $ 237,358,904     $ 241,879,452     $ 242,000,000  

Marketing Fee—Ethanol

      (1,604,795 )     (1,371,353 )     (1,424,153 )     (1,451,277 )     (1,452,000 )
                                         

Net Ethanol Revenue

      212,367,808       227,187,551       235,934,751       240,428,175       240,548,000  
                                         

Distillers Grains

    —         33,904,110       36,713,307       38,127,593       38,863,796       38,892,857  

Marketing Fee—Distillers Grains

      (1,186,644 )     (1,284,966 )     (1,334,466 )     (1,360,233 )     (1,361,250 )
                                         

Net Distillers Grains Revenue

      32,717,466       35,428,341       36,793,127       37,503,564       37,531,607  
                                               

Total Revenue

    —         245,085,274       262,615,892       272,727,878       277,931,739       278,079,607  
                                               

Production Costs

           

Corn

    —         137,500,000       143,000,000       148,500,000       151,250,000       151,250,000  

Natural Gas Costs

      26,180,000       27,227,200       28,274,400       28,798,000       28,798,000  

Denaturant

    —         9,625,000       10,010,000       10,395,000       10,587,500       10,587,500  

Electricity

    —         3,547,500       3,689,400       3,831,300       3,902,250       3,902,250  

Water & Sewer

    —         660,000       686,400       712,800       726,000       726,000  

Enzymes

    —         5,280,000       5,491,200       5,702,400       5,808,000       5,808,000  

Yeast & Chemicals

    —         2,420,000       2,516,800       2,613,600       2,662,000       2,662,000  

Depreciation Expense

    —         12,073,744       12,140,411       12,207,077       12,273,744       12,340,411  

Repair & Maintenance

    —         1,375,000       1,430,000       1,485,000       1,512,500       1,512,500  

Production Payroll

    —         2,103,750       2,145,825       2,188,742       2,232,516       2,277,167  

Cost Allocation (Change in FG Inventory)

    —         (5,984,344 )     (239,374 )     (239,374 )     (119,687 )     —    
                                               

Total Production Expense

    —         194,780,650       208,097,862       215,670,945       219,632,823       219,863,827  
                                               

Gross Profit

    —         50,304,624       54,518,030       57,056,933       58,298,916       58,215,780  
                                               

General and Administrative

           

Organizational & Start Up

    3,170,000       —         —         —         —         —    

Administrative Payroll

    —         701,250       715,275       729,581       744,172       759,056  

Miscellaneous General & Administrative

    —         1,887,300       1,946,700       2,006,100       2,035,800       2,035,800  

License, Fees & Insurance

    —         440,000       457,600       475,200       484,000       484,000  

Real Estate & Personal Property Taxes

    —         550,000       572,000       594,000       605,000       605,000  

Quality Control and Consulting Services

    —         748,000       777,920       807,840       822,800       822,800  

Interest Expense—Bond financing

    —         4,560,174       4,220,780       3,855,764       3,463,192       3,040,984  

Interest Expense—Bank financing

    —         4,663,350       3,639,105       2,419,781       1,587,631       841,697  
                                               

Total General and Administrative Expenses

    3,170,000       13,550,074       12,329,380       10,888,265       9,742,595       8,589,336  
                                               

Net Income (Loss) before Contributions

    (3,170,000 )     36,754,550       42,188,650       46,168,668       48,556,321       49,626,443  
                                               

Contribution Expense

    —         367,545       421,887       461,687       485,563       496,264  
                                               

Net Income (Loss)

  $ (3,170,000 )   $ 36,387,004     $ 41,766,764     $ 45,706,981     $ 48,070,757     $ 49,130,179  
                                               

Members’ Equity-beginning

  $ —       $ 92,794,300     $ 118,281,304     $ 139,148,068     $ 161,955,049     $ 186,025,807  

Capital Contributed

    95,964,300       —         —         —         —         —    

Distributions to Members

    —         (10,900,000 )     (20,900,000 )     (22,900,000 )     (24,000,000 )     (24,600,000 )

Net Income (Loss)

    (3,170,000 )     36,387,004       41,766,764       45,706,981       48,070,757       49,130,179  
                                               

Members’ Equity-ending

  $ 92,794,300     $ 118,281,304     $ 139,148,068     $ 161,955,049     $ 186,025,807     $ 210,555,986  
                                               

See accompanying summaries of significant assumptions and accounting policies.

See Accountants’ Compilation Report

 

3


LIBERTY RENEWABLE FUELS, LLC

(Parent Company Only)

FORECASTED STATEMENT OF CASH FLOWS

YEARS ENDING ZERO THROUGH FIVE

 

    Year 0     Year 1     Year 2     Year 3     Year 4     Year 5  

Adjustments to reconcile net income to net cash

           

Operating Activities

           

Net income (loss)

  $ (3,170,000 )   $ 36,387,004     $ 41,766,764     $ 45,706,981     $ 48,070,757     $ 49,130,179  

Non-cash charges to operations

           

Depreciation and amortization

    —         12,476,044       12,542,711       12,609,377       12,676,044       12,742,711  

Changes in account balances

           

Accounts receivable

    —         (11,580,034 )     (830,330 )     (477,886 )     (246,286 )     (7,343 )

Grain futures contracts

    —         (4,000,000 )     (1,000,000 )     —         —         —    

Inventories

    —         (20,257,975 )     (418,538 )     (388,401 )     24,293       —    

Utility deposits

    (4,500,000 )     1,650,000       1,650,000       400,000       400,000       400,000  

Accounts payable

    —         8,561,537       497,117       251,999       115,735       (37,901 )
                                               

Cash Provided by (Used in) Operating Activities

    (7,670,000 )     23,236,577       54,207,724       58,102,069       61,040,543       62,227,646  
                                               

Investing Activities

           

Land purchase

    (2,960,840 )     —         —         —         —         —    

Fixed asset purchases

    (180,606,160 )     (500,000 )     (1,000,000 )     (1,000,000 )     (1,000,000 )     (1,000,000 )
                                               

Cash (Used in) Investing Activities

    (183,567,000 )     (500,000 )     (1,000,000 )     (1,000,000 )     (1,000,000 )     (1,000,000 )
                                               

Financing Activities

           

Finance Fees

    (4,023,000 )     —         —         —         —         —    

Borrowings of long term bond debt

    63,750,000       —         —         —         —         —    

Repayment of long term bond debt

    —         (4,495,724 )     (4,835,118 )     (5,200,134 )     (5,592,706 )     (6,014,914 )

Borrowings of long term bank debt

    54,850,000       —         —         —         —         —    

Repayment of long term bank debt

    —         (5,082,857 )     (6,107,102 )     (7,326,426 )     (8,158,576 )     (8,904,510 )

Restricted cash

    (4,873,103 )     —         —         —         —         (4,420,539 )

Distributions paid

    —         (10,900,000 )     (20,900,000 )     (22,900,000 )     (24,000,000 )     (24,600,000 )

Cost of raising capital

    (795,700 )     —         —         —         —         —    

Equity investment

    96,760,000       —         —         —         —         —    
                                               

Cash Provided by (Used in) Financing Activities

    205,668,197       (20,478,581 )     (31,842,221 )     (35,426,561 )     (37,751,282 )     (43,939,964 )
                                               

Net Increase in Cash and Cash Equivalents

    14,431,197       2,257,996       21,365,503       21,675,509       22,289,260       17,287,683  

Cash and Equivalents, Beginning of year

    —         14,431,197       16,689,193       38,054,696       59,730,205       82,019,465  
                                               

Cash and Cash Equivalents, End of year

  $ 14,431,197     $ 16,689,193     $ 38,054,696     $ 59,730,205     $ 82,019,465     $ 99,307,148  
                                               

See accompanying summaries of significant assumptions and accounting policies.

See Accountants’ Compilation Report

 

4


LIBERTY RENEWABLE FUELS, LLC

(Parent Company Only)

SUMMARY OF SIGNIFICANT ASSUMPTIONS AND ACCOUNTING POLICIES

YEARS ENDING ZERO THROUGH FIVE

NOTE A—NATURE OF THE FORECAST

This financial forecast presents, based on the assumptions of management hereafter set forth, Liberty Renewable Fuels, LLC’s (Parent Company Only) expected financial position, results of operations and cash flows for the forecasted period. Accordingly, the forecast reflects management’s judgment of the expected conditions and the Company’s expected course of action as of May 15, 2007, the date of this forecast. The Company anticipates the acquisition of a grain elevator subsidiary, Auburn Bean and Grain Company. The forecasted financial statements are for the parent company only and do not include the acquisition of the subsidiary.

The financial forecast is based on management’s assumptions concerning future events and circumstances. The assumptions disclosed herein are those that management believes are significant to the forecast and are not intended to be all inclusive, but are key factors upon which the financial results of the Project depends.

Some assumptions inevitably will not materialize and unanticipated events and circumstances may occur subsequent to May 15, 2007, the date of this forecast. Therefore, the actual results achieved during the forecasted period will vary from this forecast, and the variations may be material. Management does not intend to revise this forecast to reflect changes in present circumstances or the occurrence of unanticipated events.

NOTE B—NATURE OF BUSINESS AND SUMMARY OF SIGNIFICANT ACCOUNTING POLICIES AND ASSUMPTIONS

PROJECT—Liberty Renewable Fuels, LLC was created for the purpose of constructing and operating an ethanol plant in central Michigan that will produce approximately 110,000,000 gallons of denatured fuel grade ethanol and 354,000 tons distiller’s dried grains (DDG) annually. The company is currently exploring the feasibility of capturing and selling CO2 by-products. Revenue and expenses associated with capturing CO2 have been excluded from these forecasted financial statements. The Company anticipates the acquisition of a grain elevator subsidiary, Auburn Bean and Grain Company. The forecasted financial statements are for the parent company only and do not include the acquisition of the subsidiary.

RISK AND UNCERTAINTIES—Management has made certain assumptions that have a significant impact on the forecasted net income. The critical assumptions include, but are not limited to, the following: ethanol gallons produced annually, ethanol sales price, distiller’s grain sales price and the cost of grain for processing. Each one of these assumptions will have a significant impact on the forecasted net income.

METHOD OF ACCOUNTING—The Company will use the accrual basis method of accounting for the forecast, which management intends to use for historical financial statements. This method recognizes revenues as earned and expenses as incurred.

 

See Accountants’ Compilation Report

 

5


LIBERTY RENEWABLE FUELS, LLC

(Parent Company Only)

SUMMARY OF SIGNIFICANT ASSUMPTIONS AND ACCOUNTING POLICIES

YEARS ENDING ZERO THROUGH FIVE

 

CASH AND CASH EQUIVALENTS—For purposes of the forecast, it is assumed that excess cash will be invested in investments with an original maturity of three months or less. Cash and cash equivalents exclude all assets, if any, whose use is limited.

INCOME TAXES—The Company is organized as a partnership for federal and state income tax purposes and will not incur income taxes. Instead, the Company’s earnings and losses will pass through to the members and will be taxed at the member level. Accordingly, no provision for income taxes has been included in these forecasted financial statements.

OTHER ASSUMPTIONS—The project development and ethanol plant construction period is assumed to be twenty four (24) months. It is referred to in the financial statements as “Year 0”. The twenty four months of development, construction and startup period is assumed to include all organization and startup expenses required to make the plant operational.

GRANTS AND INCENTIVES—There are no grants included in the forecast.

NOTE C—PROPOSED SOURCES AND USES OF FUNDS

The proposed sources and uses of funds are summarized below:

 

Sources of Funds

   Total

Senior Debt—Loan and Bonds

   $ 104,000,000

Senior Debt—Utility Substation

     4,600,000

WC/Inventory Loan (line of credit)

     10,000,000

Membership equity

     96,760,000
      

Total sources

   $ 215,360,000
      

Uses of Funds

   Total

Construction Costs

   $ 134,000,000

Land Costs

     2,960,840

Site Work

     5,633,200

Contingency

     3,900,000

Administration Buildings

     1,140,000

Rail

     4,500,000

Grain and DDG Handling Complex

     17,500,000

Utility Substation

     4,600,000

Roads and Utilities

     3,000,000

Equipment and other

     3,880,960

Capitalized Interest

     1,300,000

Organizational and Startup Costs

     3,170,000

Bank Financing Fees

     4,023,000

Construction Period Interest

     5,752,000

Initial Inventory and Working Capital

     20,000,000
      

Total uses

   $ 215,360,000
      

 

See Accountants’ Compilation Report

 

6


LIBERTY RENEWABLE FUELS, LLC

(Parent Company Only)

SUMMARY OF SIGNIFICANT ASSUMPTIONS AND ACCOUNTING POLICIES

YEARS ENDING ZERO THROUGH FIVE

 

PROJECT LOANS—The forecast assumes that total construction and permanent financing in the amount of $118,600,000 of debt will be available to develop the project. The interest rates and terms of the debt are based on an executed term sheet with Grand Forks Farm Credit, however, actual interest rates and terms could vary.

The forecast assumes that the debt will be a combination of traditional Senior Debt estimated at $54,850,000 plus tax exempt bonds estimated at $63,750,000. The traditional debt would consist of three loans. The first loan, in the amount of $4,600,000, would be used to build a utility substation. The second loan, in the amount of $40,250,000, would be used for project costs. The third loan, in the amount of $10,000,000, would be used for working capital and start up expenditures. The utility loan and working capital loan would have a 5 year maturity with the cost of debt being 8.82%. The project loan or term loan would have a 10 year maturity with the cost of debt being 8.82%. The forecast assumes accelerated payments on the term loan in the form of cash flow sweeps. The accelerated payments would be applied toward the principal of the term loan in the amount of 40% of available cash flow with an equity percentage of 45-50%, 30% with an equity percentage of 50-55%, and 20% with an equity percentage of 55-60%. No cash flow sweep would be required in the event that more than 60% of ownership could be attributed to equity financing.

The forecast assumes that the bond portion of the debt would consist of solid waste bonds through the Economic Development Corporation of the County of Gratiot, Michigan. The bonds would mature in 10 years with the cost of debt being 7.3%.

OWNER EQUITY CONTRIBUTIONS—Owner equity contributions, net of cost of raising capital, of $92,794,300 are included in the project financial plan.

NOTE D—FORECASTED BALANCE SHEETS ASSUMPTIONS

CASH—Cash was computed as the residual asset balance of all balance sheet accounts after applying all assumptions.

ACCOUNTS RECEIVABLE—Accounts receivable collections are forecast to be 15 days for ethanol sales and 30 days for distiller’s grain sales.

INVENTORIES—Inventories consist of approximately 3.9 million bushels of corn (which is between 33 and 36 days of production), 15 days of chemicals, enzymes, yeast, and denaturant, 10 days of ethanol and 15 days of distiller’s grain production. Raw material and finished goods inventories are stated at lower of cost or market.

PROPERTY AND EQUIPMENT—Property and equipment is stated at cost with depreciation computed using the straight line method with an estimated useful life of 15 years. The forecast includes capitalized additions to equipment of $500,000 for Year 1 and $1,000,000 per year for Years 2 through 5.

OTHER ASSETS—Other assets are recorded at cost and include a utility deposit, all financing costs incurred during the period, and restricted cash used to satisfy a debt payment reserve requirement. Loan fees are amortized using the straight-line method.

 

See Accountants’ Compilation Report

 

7


LIBERTY RENEWABLE FUELS, LLC

(Parent Company Only)

SUMMARY OF SIGNIFICANT ASSUMPTIONS AND ACCOUNTING POLICIES

YEARS ENDING ZERO THROUGH FIVE

 

The utility deposit is anticipated to be in two parts: $2,500,000 gas deposit and $2,000,000 electric deposit. The gas deposit is to be paid back based on usage. It is anticipated to be paid back 50% in each of Years 2 and 3. The electric deposit is anticipated to be paid back 20% per year starting in Year 2. The restricted cash used for the debt payment reserve requirement would consist of 6 months worth of principal and interest payments on the senior debt of $54,850,000.

ACCOUNTS PAYABLE—These items consist of 15 days grain, production materials and general and administrative expenses.

DISTRIBUTIONS—Distributions to owners are estimated at 40% of forecasted taxable income for Year 1. Distributions to owners for Years 2 through 5 are estimated at 50% of financial statement income. Actual distributions may differ from these estimates based on decisions by management and any restrictions contained in lender covenants.

NOTE E—FORECASTED STATEMENTS OF OPERATIONS ASSUMPTIONS

REVENUES—Forecasted revenue for the plant consists of the sale of ethanol and distiller’s dried grain.

ETHANOL—The ethanol plant will have a nameplate capacity of 110 million gallons per year of denatured fuel ethanol production, with the assumption that at maximum capacity the plant will actually produce 121 million gallons per year. Allowing for initial startup, the plant is assumed to produce 110.0 million gallons in Year 1 of operations, 114.4 million gallons in Year 2, 118.8 million gallons in Year 3 and 121.0 million gallons each of the following years.

The forecast assumes that the plant will receive $2.00 per gallon for denatured ethanol from year one to year five. Market prices and tax incentives could change substantially during the course of the project. The forecasted price is net of estimated transportation fees.

DISTILLER’S GRAINS—The financial forecast assumes that the ethanol plant will produce distiller’s dried grain (DDG) from corn. The amount of distiller’s grain produced will be determined by the characteristics of the feedstock and the level of ethanol yield, but is assumed to be equivalent to 18 pounds of DDG per bushel of corn processed. All of the distillers gain is assumed to be sold dried.

The DDG are assumed to be sold as animal feed to area cattle operations. The value of feed co-products will vary with the price of grain and with the cost of competing products. The forecast assumes a sales value of $100 per ton for DDG. The forecasted price is net of estimated transportation fees.

VARIABLE UNIT PRODUCTION COSTS—Forecasted variable production costs are the input commodities to produce ethanol, which include corn, chemicals and enzymes, utilities, and denaturant.

 

See Accountants’ Compilation Report

 

8


LIBERTY RENEWABLE FUELS, LLC

(Parent Company Only)

SUMMARY OF SIGNIFICANT ASSUMPTIONS AND ACCOUNTING POLICIES

YEARS ENDING ZERO THROUGH FIVE

 

CORN—The forecast has assumed a price of $3.50 per bushel of corn. The forecast assumes that a bushel of corn yields 2.8 gallons of denatured ethanol or an annual usage of approximately 39.3 million bushels at a 110 million gallon per year production rate.

DENATURANT, CHEMICALS, AND OTHER INGREDIENTS—Denaturant is the additive mixed with the ethanol produced resulting in denatured ethanol. Five gallons of denaturant is added to every 100 gallons of alcohol. The price of the denaturant is calculated as the retail price of gasoline less any local taxes. The assumed cost of a gallon of denaturant is $1.75 per gallon.

Enzymes, yeasts, and other various chemicals are required in the ethanol conversion process. The forecast assumes the industry standard cost for these processing components of $.07 per gallon of ethanol produced.

UTILITIES—The cost of utilities includes electricity, water, and sewage. Electricity use will be approximately 82.5 million kWh per year at a 110 million gallon per year production rate. Electricity will be purchased at an estimated cost of $.043 per kWh. Water cost of $.006 per gallon was assumed based on industry data.

NATURAL GAS—The plant is expected to consume 34,000 Btu of natural gas per gallon of ethanol produced including the cost to dry the distiller’s grain. The forecast assumes a cost of $7.00 per mmBtu.

PRODUCTION LABOR—Forecasted payroll costs for the plant assume the following full-time staffing requirements: 49 production and maintenance positions, and 10 administrative positions.

GENERAL AND ADMINISTRATIVE EXPENSES—These costs include annual administrative payroll, marketing fees, miscellaneous expenses, license and insurance fees, property taxes, and interest expense.

MARKETING FEE – The Company anticipates contracting with unrelated companies to market the ethanol and distiller’s dried grain. Included in the forecasted financial statements is a marketing fee of .75% of ethanol revenue for the first year of operation and .60% thereafter. A marketing fee of $3.50 per ton is estimated on sales of DDG.

INTEREST EXPENSE—Interest rate for long-term debt is assumed to be 8.82% on traditional debt and 7.3% on bond financing. The forecasts assume that all interest incurred during the construction period will be paid in Year 0.

CONTRIBUTIONS—The Company anticipates making charitable contributions equal to 1% net income before the charitable contributions.

 

See Accountants’ Compilation Report

 

9


LIBERTY RENEWABLE FUELS, LLC

(Parent Company Only)

SUMMARY OF SIGNIFICANT ASSUMPTIONS AND ACCOUNTING POLICIES

YEARS ENDING ZERO THROUGH FIVE

 

NOTE F—SELECTED FINANCIAL DATA—PRICE SENSITIVITY MATRIX

The following price sensitivity matrix was prepared to illustrate the effect of volatile changes in ethanol and corn pricing on the profitability of the proposed ethanol plant and the potential exposure to market risk. The profitability of an ethanol plant is subject to significant market risk with respect to price of ethanol, the principal product marketed, and the price and availability of corn, the principal product used in the ethanol production process.

The price sensitivity matrix is based on Year 3 of the proposed operations, using the same assumptions used for the forecasted financial statements, but varying corn and ethanol pricing. The sole purpose of the price sensitivity matrix is to illustrate the effect of corn and ethanol pricing on the forecasted profitability of the proposed ethanol plant.

The price sensitivity matrix is not a guarantee of future results and should not be relied upon as such.

 

See Accountants’ Compilation Report

 

10


Liberty Renewable Fuels, LLC

110 Million Gallon Ethanol Plant

Price Sensitivity Matrix

Return on Investment—Year 3

 

Ethanol Price  
Corn
Price
   $1.50     $1.60     $1.70     $1.80     $1.90     $2.00     $2.10     $2.20     $2.30     $2.40     $2.50     $2.60     $2.70     $2.80  
$ 5.00    -79.8 %   -67.5 %   -55.3 %   -43.0 %   -30.7 %   -18.5 %   -6.2 %   6.1 %   18.3 %   30.6 %   42.9 %   55.1 %   67.4 %   79.7 %
$ 4.90    -75.4 %   -63.2 %   -50.9 %   -38.6 %   -26.4 %   -14.1 %   -1.8 %   10.4 %   22.7 %   35.0 %   47.2 %   59.5 %   71.8 %   84.0 %
$ 4.80    -71.0 %   -58.8 %   -46.5 %   -34.2 %   -22.0 %   -9.7 %   2.6 %   14.8 %   27.1 %   39.4 %   51.6 %   63.9 %   76.1 %   88.4 %
$ 4.70    -66.7 %   -54.4 %   -42.1 %   -29.9 %   -17.6 %   -5.3 %   6.9 %   19.2 %   31.5 %   43.7 %   56.0 %   68.3 %   80.5 %   92.8 %
$ 4.60    -62.3 %   -50.0 %   -37.7 %   -25.5 %   -13.2 %   -0.9 %   11.3 %   23.6 %   35.8 %   48.1 %   60.4 %   72.6 %   84.9 %   97.2 %
$ 4.50    -57.9 %   -45.6 %   -33.4 %   -21.1 %   -8.8 %   3.4 %   15.7 %   28.0 %   40.2 %   52.5 %   64.8 %   77.0 %   89.3 %   101.6 %
$ 4.40    -53.5 %   -41.2 %   -29.0 %   -16.7 %   -4.5 %   7.8 %   20.1 %   32.3 %   44.6 %   56.9 %   69.1 %   81.4 %   93.7 %   105.9 %
$ 4.30    -49.1 %   -36.9 %   -24.6 %   -12.3 %   -0.1 %   12.2 %   24.5 %   36.7 %   49.0 %   61.3 %   73.5 %   85.8 %   98.1 %   110.3 %
$ 4.20    -44.8 %   -32.5 %   -20.2 %   -8.0 %   4.3 %   16.6 %   28.8 %   41.1 %   53.4 %   65.6 %   77.9 %   90.2 %   102.4 %   114.7 %
$ 4.10    -40.4 %   -28.1 %   -15.8 %   -3.6 %   8.7 %   21.0 %   33.2 %   45.5 %   57.8 %   70.0 %   82.3 %   94.5 %   106.8 %   119.1 %
$ 4.00    -36.0 %   -23.7 %   -11.5 %   0.8 %   13.1 %   25.3 %   37.6 %   49.9 %   62.1 %   74.4 %   86.7 %   98.9 %   111.2 %   123.5 %
$ 3.90    -31.6 %   -19.3 %   -7.1 %   5.2 %   17.5 %   29.7 %   42.0 %   54.2 %   66.5 %   78.8 %   91.0 %   103.3 %   115.6 %   127.8 %
$ 3.80    -27.2 %   -15.0 %   -2.7 %   9.6 %   21.8 %   34.1 %   46.4 %   58.6 %   70.9 %   83.2 %   95.4 %   107.7 %   120.0 %   132.2 %
$ 3.70    -22.9 %   -10.6 %   1.7 %   13.9 %   26.2 %   38.5 %   50.7 %   63.0 %   75.3 %   87.5 %   99.8 %   112.1 %   124.3 %   136.6 %
$ 3.60    -18.5 %   -6.2 %   6.1 %   18.3 %   30.6 %   42.9 %   55.1 %   67.4 %   79.7 %   91.9 %   104.2 %   116.4 %   128.7 %   141.0 %
$ 3.50    -14.1 %   -1.8 %   10.4 %   22.7 %   35.0 %   47.2 %   59.5 %   71.8 %   84.0 %   96.3 %   108.6 %   120.8 %   133.1 %   145.4 %
$ 3.40    -9.7 %   2.6 %   14.8 %   27.1 %   39.4 %   51.6 %   63.9 %   76.1 %   88.4 %   100.7 %   112.9 %   125.2 %   137.5 %   149.7 %
$ 3.30    -5.3 %   6.9 %   19.2 %   31.5 %   43.7 %   56.0 %   68.3 %   80.5 %   92.8 %   105.1 %   117.3 %   129.6 %   141.9 %   154.1 %
$ 3.20    -0.9 %   11.3 %   23.6 %   35.8 %   48.1 %   60.4 %   72.6 %   84.9 %   97.2 %   109.4 %   121.7 %   134.0 %   146.2 %   158.5 %
$ 3.10    3.4 %   15.7 %   28.0 %   40.2 %   52.5 %   64.8 %   77.0 %   89.3 %   101.6 %   113.8 %   126.1 %   138.4 %   150.6 %   162.9 %
$ 3.00    7.8 %   20.1 %   32.3 %   44.6 %   56.9 %   69.1 %   81.4 %   93.7 %   105.9 %   118.2 %   130.5 %   142.7 %   155.0 %   167.3 %

ASSUMPTIONS:

 

Natural Gas Cost per MMBTU

  $ 7.00    

Ethanol gallons sold

    118,680,000   

Interest rate on SR debt

    8.82 %

BTU’S Used per Gallon of Ethanol

    34,000    

Ethanol gallons per bushel

    2.80   

Interest rate on bond debt

    7.30 %

Total Project Cost

  $ 215,360,000    

Electricity cost per kWh

  $ 0.043   

Payroll expense

  $ 2,918,000  

Total Equity

  $ 96,760,000    

kWh’s used per ethanol gallon

    0.75   

Total tons of DDGS sold

    381,000  

Percent Equity

    45 %  

Denaturant cost/gallon ethanol

  $ 0.0875   

DDGS price per ton

  $ 100.00  

The price sensitivity matrix is based on Year 3 of the proposed operations, using the same assumptions used for the forecasted financial statements, but varying corn and ethanol pricing. The sole purpose of the price sensitivity matrix is to illustrate the effect of corn and ethanol pricing on the forecasted profitability of the proposed ethanol plant.

The price sensitivity matrix is not a guarantee of future results and should not be relied upon as such.

 

See Accountants’ Compilation Report

 

11