EX-99.C.X 9 y85077exv99wcwx.htm EX-99.C.X exv99wcwx
Exhibit (c)(x)
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DRAFT GOLD’S PROFIT & LOSS ACCOUNT Historic            Forecast            Historic            Forecast $ millions Dec-08A Dec-09A Dec-10E Dec-11E Dec-12E            Mar-09A Mar-10E Mar-11E Mar-12E AUM schedule Opening AUM 24,612 15,039 22,175 27,100 33,213 15,039 15,400 23,074 28,628 Closing AUM 15,039 22,175 27,100 33,213 36,534 15,400 23,074 28,628 34,043 Average AUM 19,826 18,607 24,638 30,157 34,874 15,220 19,237 25,851 31,336 P&L Net management fees 318 149 193 253 278 253 160 211 259 Net performance fees 108 115 204 258 284 114 105 203 258 Net admin fees 69 26 34 43 47 52 28 37 44 Other revenues 1 8 4 2 2 (4) 8 4 2 Net revenues 495 298 435 556 612 415 301 455 563 Fixed costs (288) (185) (222) (262) (298) (247) (198) (232) (270) Variable costs (28) (92) (99) (125) (107) (28) (92) (99) (125) EBITDA 179 20 114 170 206 140 11 124 168 Depreciation (3) (4) (6) (7) (7) (3) (4) (6) (7) EBITA 176 16 108 163 199 137 7 118 162 Finance costs (17) (12) (7) (7) (7) (15) (11) (7) (7) PWP normalised non-GAAP PBT 159 5 101 156 192 122 (4) 111 155 Tax on normalised PBT (18) 1 (25) (35) (36) (12) 6 (38) (34) PWP normalised non-GAAP net income 141 6 76 121 156 109 2 74 121 Exceptionals — 85 -Cumulative dividends to NG (15) (10) (11) Gold reported non-GAAP net income 127 81 98 Exceptionals — (1) -Intangible amortisation — (2) -Acquisition-related items (739) (438) (608) Gold reported GAAP net income (612) (359) (510) PWP normalised EPS ($) 0.44 0.02 0.23 0.37 0.48 0.34 0.01 0.23 0.37 Source: Company disclosure; PWP analysis based on updated broker forecasts as at 23 Apr 2010 Confidential 1

 


 

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DRAFT ALTERNATIVE ASSET MANAGER SHARE PRICE PERFROMANCE LTM SHARE PRICE DEVELOPMENT SINCE 25-MAR-10 20.9% 250 19.0% +99.1% -Och Ziff 200 1.7% +97.2% -BlueBay (1.9%) (3.2%) M            Och-Ziff            Ashmore BlueBay            Gold (Index 100) 150 performance +15.0% -Ashmore +11.3% - share price 100 Gold (1.9%) - Indexed M 50 M            Och-Ziff            Ashmore            BlueBay            Gold 0 May-09 Jun-09 Aug-09 Oct-09 Nov-09 Jan-10 Mar-10 Apr-10 Source: Factset Confidential 2

 


 

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DRAFT AVP As at: 30-Apr-10 Shares outstanding (m) 322.0 322.0 322.0 322.0 322.0 322.0 322.0 322.0 322.0 Plus: Convertible bonds (m) 72.3 70.5 69.1 68.0 66.6 67.3 66.6 65.9 65.2 Total (including impact of convertible bonds) (m) 394.2 392.4 391.1 390.0 388.6 389.3 388.6 387.9 387.2 Blended Offer Price ($) 3.24 3.50 3.75 4.00 4.14 4.25 4.50 4.75 5.00 Premium (to $3.24) 0.0% 8.0% 15.7% 23.5% 27.9% 31.2% 38.9% 46.6% 54.3% Premium (to $2.68 undisturbed price) 20.9% 30.6% 39.9% 49.3% 54.6% 58.6% 67.9% 77.2% 86.6% Implied Equity Value ($m) 1,277 1,374 1,466 1,560 1,587 1,654 1,749 1,843 1,936 Debt ($m) 305 305 305 305 305 305 305 305 305 Cash ($m) (190) (190) (190) (190) (190) (190) (190) (190) (190) Net Debt ($m) 115 115 115 115 115 115 115 115 115 Implied Enterprise Value ($m) 1,393 1,489 1,582 1,675 1,702 1,770 1,864 1,958 2,051 ($m, M arch Year End) P / E            Net Income (Unadj.)(1)Net Income (Adj.)(2) 2011E 73.6 82.9 15.4x 16.6x 17.7x 18.8x 19.1x 20.0x 21.1x 22.2x 23.3x 2012E 120.7 130.1 9.8x 10.6x 11.3x 12.0x 12.2x 12.7x 13.4x 14.2x 14.9x P / E            Net Income (Adj.)(2) Plus Synergies(3) 2011E 82.9 103.4 12.4x 13.3x 14.2x 15.1x 15.3x 16.0x 16.9x 17.8x 18.7x 2012E 130.1 171.1 7.5x 8.0x 8.6x 9.1x 9.3x 9.7x 10.2x 10.8x 11.3x Denotes 2012 comps trading range(4) Note: (1) PWP normalised net income (2) Adjusted for after-tax interest expense of converted convertible bonds (3) Includes $25m of pre-tax synergies in 2011 and $50m in 2012, taxed at 18% (4) Comps consist of M, Ashmore and BlueBay Confidential 3

 


 

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DRAFT ACCRETION/ (DILUTION) ANALYSIS (in $m, unless specified) Scenario 1 — Last Board            Scenario 2 Scenario 3 Principals Public Shareholders            Principals Public Shareholders            Principals Public Shareholders Offer Price ($) $3.60 $4.02 $3.50 $4.50 $3.75 $4.50 Premium to Last Close(1) 11.1% 24.1% 8.0% 38.9% 15.7% 38.9% Premium to Undis. Price(2) 34.3% 50.0% 30.6% 67.9% 39.9% 67.9% Exchange ratio(3) 0.9667 0.9398 1.0070 Fully Diluted Shares (m) 161 229 161 227 161 227 Consideration            Shares            Cash            Shares Cash            Shares            Cash Offer Value ($m) 581 919 565 1,022 605 1,022 Total Offer Value ($m) $1,500m $1,587m $1,628m M Market Cap (last close) ($m) $6,373m $6,373m $6,373m Offer Value / M Market Cap 23.5% 24.9% 25.5% M Shares Issued / Current 9.1% 8.9% 9.5% Blended Offer Price ($) $3.86 $4.14 $4.22 Premium to Last Close(1) 19.1% 27.9% 30.3% Premium to Undis. Price(2) 43.9% 54.6% 57.5% Value of Public Premium ($m) $96.0m $227.2m $170.4m Capitalised Synergies ($50m p.a. @ 12x) $432.0m $432.0m $432.0m Public Premium / Capitalised Synergies 22.2% 52.6% 39.4% Total Offer Premium ($m) $240.7m $352.5m $382.6m Total Offer Premium / Capitalised Synergies 55.7% 81.6% 88.6% Total Debt 305 305 305 Less: Cash (190) (190) (190) Net Debt 115 115 115 Implied Enterprise Value 1,615 1,702 1,743 Implied P / E            M Group Mar-11 11.3x 18.1x 19.1x 19.6x Mar-12 8.0x 11.5x 12.2x 12.5x Implied P / E including synergies(4) M Group Mar-11 11.3x 14.5x 15.3x 15.7x Mar-12 8.0x 8.8x 9.3x 9.5x Accretion / (Dilution)(4) Mar-11 5.02% 4.99% 4.38% Mar-12 9.05% 9.11% 8.47% Source: PWP analysis, Factset; Data as of 30-Apr-10; (1) Gold last close of $3.24 on 30 April 2010; (2) Gold undisturbed share price of $2.68 as at 25 Mar 2010; (3) Exchange ratio defined as stock offer price / acquiror share price; (4) Including synergies of $25m in 2011 and of $50m in 2012, tax rate of 18% Confidential 4

 


 

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DRAFT PRO FORMA REGULATORY CAPITAL ANALYSIS M Regulatory Capital ($m) Gold Capital Requirement ($m) Capital position $m            Credit risk 17 Available equity tier 1 capital 2,365 Market risk -Innovative tier 1 300 Operational risk 36 Available tier 1 capital 2,665 Total 53 Tier 2 399 Ow n funds 3,064 Transaction Adjustments ($m) Deductions (290) Total regulatory capital 2,774 Gold NAV (31 Dec 2009) (284) Less: Gold GW and Intangibles (35) Plus: Quarterly Net Income 2 Capital requirements            Plus: Converted Bonds 229 Credit risk 334 Gold NAV (Adjusted, 31 Mar 2010) (88) Market risk 98 Operational risk 653 Pro Forma Excess Capital ($m, unless stated) Total capital requirements 1,085 Offer Price (principals / public), $ $3.60 $4.02 $3.50 $4.50 $3.75 $4.50 Excess capital 1,689 Total Offer Value 1,500 1,587 1,628 Board cushion (175) Of Which Equity 581 565 605 Net excess capital (31 March 2010) 1,514 Net Excess Capital 1,514 1,514 1,514 Less: Gold Capital Requirement (53) (53) (53) Plus: New Equity Issued 581 565 605 Less: Goodw ill Created (Total Offer Value — Adj. Gold NAV) (1,587) (1,675) (1,715) Pro Forma Excess Capital 454 350 350 Confidential 5

 


 

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DRAFT CAPITALISED VALUE OF SYNERGIES CAPITALISED VALUE OF SYNERGIES (1) CAPITALISED VALUE OF SYNERGIES PER SHARE(1) Synergy multiple            Synergy multiple 10.0x 11.0x 12.0x 13.0x 14.0x 10.0x 11.0x 12.0x 13.0x 14.0x $0m $0.0m $0.0m $0.0m $0.0m $0.0m $0m $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $10m $72.0m $79.2m $86.4m $93.6m $100.8m $10m $0.18 $0.20 $0.22 $0.24 $0.26 $20m $144.0m $158.4m $172.8m $187.2m $201.6m $20m $0.37 $0.41 $0.44 $0.48 $0.52 $30m $216.0m $237.6m $259.2m $280.8m $302.4m $30m $0.55 $0.61 $0.67 $0.72 $0.78 synergies            synergies $40m $288.0m $316.8m $345.6m $374.4m $403.2m $40m $0.74 $0.81 $0.89 $0.96 $1.04 $50m $360.0m $396.0m $432.0m $468.0m $504.0m $50m $0.92 $1.02 $1.11 $1.20 $1.29 Full run-rate $60m $432.0m $475.2m $518.4m $561.6m $604.8m            Full run-rate $60m $1.11 $1.22 $1.33 $1.44 $1.55 $70m $504.0m $554.4m $604.8m $655.2m $705.6m $70m $1.29 $1.42 $1.55 $1.68 $1.81 $80m $576.0m $633.6m $691.2m $748.8m $806.4m $80m $1.48 $1.63 $1.78 $1.92 $2.07 $90m $648.0m $712.8m $777.6m $842.4m $907.2m $90m $1.66 $1.83 $2.00 $2.16 $2.33 $100m $720.0m $792.0m $864.0m $936.0m $1008.0m $100m $1.85 $2.03 $2.22 $2.40 $2.59 Note: (1) Based on Gold diluted shares and UK marginal tax rate of 28% Confidential 6

 


 

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DRAFT EXCHANGE RATIO PROTECTION ASSUMPTIONS Price to principals of $3.50 in M shares M share price of 243p as at 30-Apr-10 USD:GBP exchange rate of 1.53 M share price 207p 219p 231p 243p 255p 268p 280p $4.00 (15.0%) (10.0%) (5.0%) 0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% Implied share $3.00 $3.15 $3.33 $3.50 $3.68 $3.85 $4.00 ratio            price protection Exchange Exchange ratio 0.9477 0.9398 0.9398 0.9398 0.9398 0.9398 0.9340 (protected) $3.50 without ) $ Share price $2.98 $3.15 $3.33 $3.50 $3.68 $3.85 $4.03 ratio protection            Value ( Exchange Exchange 0.9398 0.9398 0.9398 0.9398 0.9398 0.9398 0.9398 ratio (fixed) $3.00 Value of protection $0.02 — — — — — -$0.03 per share Total value of protection / $4m — — — — — ($4m) $2.50 (cost of 207p 227p 260p 276p protection) M share price Confidential 7

 


 

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DRAFT ALTERNATIVE ASSET MANAGEMENT TRADING COMPARABLES Share price performance            EV-to-EBITDA Price-to-earnings % of 52 week % of 52 week Market            Enterprise Company            Share price            high            low            capitalisation            value            AUM (latest) Mar-09 Mar-10 Mar-11 Mar-12 Mar-09 Mar-10 Mar-11 Mar-12 EV / AUM M£2.43 65.1% 115.4% $6,375m $4,556m $39.1bn 4.1x 8.6x 6.8x 5.0x 6.5x 14.2x 11.3x 8.0x 11.7% Och-Ziff $17.52 94.7% 239.0% $6,268m $6,838m $25.3bn 17.7x 12.7x 10.4x 8.6x 18.8x 12.4x 10.9x n.a. 27.0% Ashmore£2.65 85.0% 144.4% $3,064m $2,625m $33.0bn 9.8x 9.5x 8.3x 7.1x 14.3x 14.1x 12.3x 10.8x 8.0% BlueBay£3.74 95.1% 210.5% $1,136m $1,041m $37.0bn 13.3x 9.2x 7.6x            n.a. 20.9x 13.7x 11.0x 10.1x 2.8% Gold $3.24 70.3% 142.1% $1,040m $1,449m $22.2bn 10.3x            n/m 13.2x 9.2x 9.6x            n/m 15.5x 9.4x 6.5% Maximum 17.7x 12.7x 13.2x 9.2x 20.9x 14.2x 15.5x 10.8x 27.0% Mean 11.0x 10.0x 9.2x 7.5x 14.0x 13.6x 12.2x 9.6x 11.2% Median 10.3x 9.4x 8.3x 7.9x 14.3x 13.9x 11.3x 9.8x 8.0% Minimum 4.1x 8.6x 6.8x 5.0x 6.5x 12.4x 10.9x 8.0x 2.8% Source: Factset Note: Market data as of 30-Apr-10; AuM as of latest available Confidential 8

 


 

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DRAFT TRADITIONAL ASSET MANAGEMENT TRADING COMPARABLES Share price performance            EV-to-EBITDA Price-to-earnings % of 52% of 52 Market Company 30-Apr-10 week high week low capitalisation Enterprise value AUM (latest) Dec-10 Dec-11 Dec-12 Dec-10 Dec-11 Dec-12 EV / AUM UK traditonal asset managers Invesco (1) $22.99 95.5% 167.7%£6,440m£6,712m£338bn 7.9x 5.5x 5.5x 18.1x 14.3x 12.8x 2.0% Schroders£13.89 95.8% 181.8%£3,987m£2,566m£148bn 8.8x 7.1x 6.4x 17.4x 14.2x 12.2x 1.7% Aberdeen£1.38 88.7% 124.3%£1,526m£1,734m£161bn 9.0x 7.6x 6.7x 12.3x 10.6x 9.3x 1.1% Henderson£1.47 93.4% 192.1%£1,216m£1,285m£58bn 11.8x 10.3x 9.3x 15.4x 13.3x 11.6x 2.2% Gartmore£1.56 67.6% 160.3%£478m£655m£22bn 7.4x 6.5x 5.7x 7.5x 6.2x 5.5x 2.9% F&C(2)£0.66 70.2% 123.4%£322m£446m£106bn 6.1x 5.5x 5.7x 9.6x 7.9x 7.2x 0.4% Mean 8.5x 7.1x 6.5x 13.4x 11.1x 9.8x 1.7% Source: Factset Note: Market data as of 30-Apr-10; AuM as of latest available (1) Pro-forma acquisition of Van Kampen (2) Pro-forma acquisition of Thames River Confidential 9