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Changes in Estimates
9 Months Ended
Sep. 27, 2012
Change In Estimate [Abstract]  
Change In Estimate [Text Block]

2. Change in Estimate

 

The Company's long-term contract estimates are based on estimated contract revenues and related costs over the Company's current contract blocks. Estimated contract revenues are generally not subject to significant revisions as most of the Company's contracts are fixed price and known at the inception of the contract, however the contract cost elements of these estimates change frequently as the programs mature and that has historically been the primary driver of changes in our estimates. Contract costs are estimated based on actual costs incurred to date and an estimate of remaining costs over the current contract block which can extend for multiple years. During the early phases of our development contracts, the future cost estimates are subject to significant variability and are based on numerous assumptions and judgments and require management to use its historical experience on similar programs until aircraft programs are type certified; low rate production is achieved; production processes mature, supply chain partners are contracted; and unit costs stabilize which typically results in assumptions that costs will improve over the life of the contract block. This learning curve concept is typical in our industry, however, the level of design change and time spent in low rate production that was anticipated when we initially established these curves has been significantly exceeded as original delivery schedules have been delayed and engineering changes continued. During the third quarter of 2012 a combination of events occurred that resulted in changes in estimates on several development programs resulting in forward losses being recorded on some of these programs. Following is a summary of events that occurred during the third quarter of 2012 that resulted in revisions of estimates on certain programs.

 

Performance Issues-Tulsa Facility

 

The Company's Tulsa facility has significant work content on three of the development programs (B787, G280, G650). The multiple complex development programs at this facility have created various performance issues that have resulted in previous changes to our contract estimates on these development programs.

The performance issues at the Tulsa facility were magnified in the third quarter of 2012 when the Company implemented a recovery plan which would bring the Company current on the delivery schedule for its B787 wing components. The Company began implementing the recovery plan during late July 2012 which resulted in the addition of significant additional resources to meet delivery schedules. As the Company was implementing the recovery plan, it became clear during the third quarter estimation process that the remediation would have a significant impact on the future cost curves due to significant amounts of additional headcount and disruption.

 

Type Certification

 

On September 4th and 7th 2012, Gulfstream received type certification on the G280 and G650 aircraft. These type certifications impact three of the Company's development programs, G280, G650 and BR725 (the engine nacelle on the G650). Type certification is a significant program milestone for commercial aerospace products as it represents the airworthiness authority's approval of the completion and functionality of engineering design and the ability of the aircraft to enter into service, and leads directly to the commencement of full rate production. However, following type certification the ability to redesign for cost is significantly less if no derivative aircraft design is planned. We currently have no plans for derivative models, making redesign for cost improvements difficult after type certification.

The pace of cost improvements was not keeping up with projected learning curves particularly related to redesign opportunities and as all three programs are preparing to enter full rate production, we revised our estimates to reflect higher costs.

 

Decision on Work Package Transfers

Given certain challenges of new programs at the Company's Kinston, NC site and the fact that our newest facility in Chanute was in the process of multiple work package transfers during the third quarter, the Company decided to delay the transfer of any additional work packages into these facilities. Overall, this had a significant impact on the BR725 program and the timing of anticipated cost reduction from the planned transfer of work content to lower-cost facilities.

 

 

Finalization of supplier contracts

During the early phases of our development programs, the Company will frequently procure small quantities of required sub-assemblies and parts from our suppliers. This practice generally forces us to pay higher unit prices for these sub-assemblies and parts, but allows us flexibility in evaluating supplier performance and quality as well as address design changes that frequently occur during the early phases of these development programs. Once design changes subside, we will generally contract on a longer-term basis with our suppliers which allows us to experience more favorable supply chain pricing.

The Company has been successful in negotiating lower costs with suppliers on most of these development programs; however, these costs are not as low as original estimates. This pressure on supply chain cost runs across all of our development programs. As Boeing and Airbus have increased production rates on existing commercial programs, our suppliers have limited capacity to deal with even modest rate increases on our business jet programs. In addition, the capacity constraint in our supply base has prevented us from off-loading to the supply chain certain work we currently perform in-house. As a result of higher current costs which have exceeded estimates and r

Due to these and other events, for the three months ended September 27, 2012, we recorded forward loss charges of $184.0 million on the Boeing 787, $162.5 million on the Gulfstream G650, $151.0 million on the Rolls-Royce BR725, $88.1 million on the Gulfstream G280, $2.4 million on the Airbus A350 XWB non-recurring wing and $2.4 million on the Boeing 747-8 wing programs. These amounts are recorded on the condensed consolidated balance sheet as forward loss provisions within Inventory.

Our consolidated net adjustments for costs related to these changes in estimates decreased operating profit, before income taxes, by approximately $590.4 and $610.3 for the three and nine months ended September 27, 2012, respectively. These adjustments decreased net earnings by approximately $407.4 ($2.90 per share) and $421.1 ($3.01 per share) for the three and nine months ended September 27, 2012, respectively.