Michael R. Rahm
Vice President, Market and Strategic Analysis
Andy J. Jung
Sr. Director, Market and Strategic Analysis
Josh Paula
Market Analysis Manager
Chris Rodengen
Sr. Market Analyst
Market Mosaic is a newsletter published for our
customers, suppliers and stakeholders by the
Market and Strategic Analysis group of The Mosaic
Company. Some issues assess the near term
outlook for agricultural and plant nutrient markets
while others take an in-depth look at a topic of
interest to our readers.
Bison, New Capacity and the P&K Outlook
– continued inside
Scientists have long observed different responses of cattle and bison to a gathering
storm. Cattle will instinctively move away from the storm. In most cases, the front
catches up to and then moves right along with the herd, increasing the misery from
the wind and snow. Bison, however, will wait for the storm to gather and then charge
head on into it, minimizing exposure to the elements.
Well, we use the bison as a metaphor to assess the impact of new P&K capacity
that is ramping up now or will start up shortly. We first evaluate the severity of the
gathering storm that has caused other analysts and investors to move away from the
sector. We then face straight into it and gauge how these developments likely will
play out during the next several years.
The main take-away from our analysis is that, like many weather forecasts, the
gathering storm of new capacity likely will be less severe than current watches and
warnings. To be clear, we are not new capacity deniers, and we expect significant
new supplies to come on line over the next several years. However, we do not expect
that the ramp-up of a handful of projects will result in the gross supply and demand
imbalances that some analysts are forecasting to persist for the next decade or longer.
In fact, we do not project deep or prolonged downturns in these markets for three
reasons. First, strong, broad-based and less volatile demand growth is expected to
absorb much of the additional capacity as it ramps up. Second, ramp-ups of new
facilities likely will be slower than expected and less than what most analysts have
plopped into their spreadsheets. Finally, like the bison, some companies are charging
directly into the storm and optimizing operations by idling higher-cost facilities and
running lower-cost operations at high and steady rates in order to reduce unit costs
and compete profitably in this new market environment.
Strong, Broad-Based and Less Volatile Demand Growth
Year-to-date statistics clearly show
that global P&K shipments have
clicked up a couple of notches
this year. Despite the increase, we
guesstimate that channel inventories
will end the year at below-average
levels in several key geographies.
For example, India appears to have
depleted inventories throughout its
entire supply chain this year, so that
bodes well for early and large imports
in 2018. P&K inventories in Brazil and
North America likely will end 2017
at below-average levels as a result
of strong application seasons and
cautious price expectations for next year.
Market Mosaic
December 2017
®
2.0
2.2
2.4
2.6
2.8
3.0
3.2
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 1617E
Bil Tonnes
World Grain and Oilseed Production
Source: USDA
Demand prospects look strong because both agronomic and
economic drivers continue to point positive. Record-shattering
harvests have removed record amounts of P&K from farm fields
across the globe during the last five years. The chart on the front
page shows that global production of the leading grain and oilseed
crops has taken giant steps up following surges in agricultural
commodity prices in 2004, 2008 and 2012. For example,
farmers had never harvested more than 2.8 billion tonnes of
these crops prior to 2013, but production has averaged nearly 3.1
billion tonnes per year since the devastating drought and price
spike in 2012. The table shows that the most recent step-up in
crop production (to 3.06 billion tonnes per year) removes about
11% more nutrients than output at the prior stoop (of 2.74 billion
tonnes per year).
Plant nutrients also remain affordable. Our affordability metric,
the ratio of a plant nutrient price index and a crop price index,
registered 0.72 in mid-December, right at the average for 2010-
16. Plant nutrients remain affordable because plant nutrient
prices have declined along with crop prices. The crop price index
in mid-December was 155, 32% less than the 2010-16 average
of 227, but the plant nutrient index had fallen to 112, down 30%
from the average of 161 for the same period.
Agricultural commodity prices have dropped from the lofty
levels of a few years ago, but prices today still trade at values
that underpin solid demand. For example, 2018 new crop corn,
soybean and HRW wheat prices were trading at roughly $3.80,
$9.85, and $4.50 per bushel, respectively, in mid-December.
The string of record-smashing harvests has resulted in a build-
up of inventories, but steady demand growth is catching up with
stepped-up production. In fact, the latest USDA estimates show
that grain and oilseed stocks outside of China are projected to
decline in 2017/18 and, more importantly, the stocks-to-use
percentage is projected to drop into the lower half of the normal
range by the end of the crop year. The food story is not in vogue
today, but it still is solidly intact.
Other factors also point to strong, broad-based and less volatile
growth. Significant demand is emerging from what looks like a
take-off in Africa as well as an increasingly strong recovery in the
former Soviet Union (FSU) and Eastern Europe. Our forecasts
assume no impact from the proposed and potentially game-
changing expansion of biofuels use in China. Demand also is
projected to increase at a more consistent pace during the next
five years. Both P&K and agricultural commodities prices are
expected to trade at more moderate and less volatile levels during
the next five years. In addition, no Richter-scale-type shocks such
as the 2010/11 subsidy overhaul in India or the withdrawal of
Uralkali from the Belarus Potash Company (BPC) in 2013 are
anticipated during the forecast period.
Potash Demand Outlook
Global potassium chloride (KCl) shipments increased 2.3% per
year or 7.7 million tonnes from 2010 to 2016. The chart shows
that growth was erratic to say the least. Shipments increased
in three years and decreased in three years, and all of the gain
resulted from the surge in 2014. India was a drag on global
growth with shipments declining 2.2 million tonnes during this
period due to subsidy cuts that resulted in nearly a tripling of retail
potash prices in 2010/11.
“Like many weather forecasts, the gathering storm of new capacity
likely will be less severe than current watches and warnings.”
- Dr. Michael R. Rahm
12%
13%
14%
15%
16%
17%
18%
19%
20%
21%
22%
200
225
250
275
300
325
350
375
400
425
450
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
Percent
Mil
Tonnes
World Less China Grain and Oilseed Stocks
Stocks Percent of Use Low High
Source: USDA
0.40
0.50
0.60
0.70
0.80
0.90
1.00
10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
Plant Nutrient Affordability
Plant Nutrient Price Index / Crop Price Index
Index Average 2010-16
Source: Weekly Price Publications,
CME, USDA, AAPFCO, Mosaic
2007-12 2013-17 Percent
Stoop Stoop
Mil Tonnes (2.74 bmt) (3,06 bmt) Change Change
N Removal 59.3 66.2 6.9 11.6%
P2O5 Removal 22.9 25.4 2.5 10.9%
K2O Removal 19.2 21.5 2.2 11.7%
Source: USDA, IPNI, Mosaic
Estimated World Grain & Oilseed Nutrient Removal
After two years of declines, a strong and broad-based rebound
in shipments has occurred this year. We estimate that global
shipments will climb 4.4% or 2.7 million tonnes to 63.5 million
in 2017. Shipments are forecast to increase another 2.6% or
1.7 million tonnes to 65.2 million in 2018. The insert shows a
breakdown by key country or region. Our robust forecasts are not
just producer-speak. CRU estimates that shipments will increase to
63.9 million tonnes this year and then jump 4.8% or a whopping
3.1 million tonnes to 67.0 million next year.
Looking out a few more years, we forecast that global potassium
chloride shipments will increase 3.0% per year or 12.0 million
tonnes from 60.9 million in 2016 to 72.9 million in 2022. The big
consuming countries - Brazil, China, India, Indonesia, and Malaysia -
account for about two-thirds of the projected gain, but other regions
such as the FSU, other Asian countries, and Africa are expected to
post notable increases during this period. CRU’s long term forecasts
also are a bit higher than our projections. Based on its August 2017
outlook report, CRU projects that global shipments will grow 3.3%
per year or 13.4 million tonnes KCl during this period.
Phosphate Demand Outlook
In the case of phosphate, we estimate that global shipments of
the leading solid high-analysis products (DAP/MAP/NPS/TSP)
increased just 1.6% per year or 6.1 million tonnes from 2010
to 2016. Phosphate shipments were less volatile than potash
shipments, but India and China were drags on global growth during
this period. In India, shipments dropped 2.4 million tonnes due to
subsidy cuts that resulted in roughly a doubling of retail phosphate
prices. By Chinese standards, domestic shipments barely budged in
the world’s largest consuming country during this period. Chinese
shipments increased during the first half of this period as a result of
strong on-farm demand as well as a build-up of channel inventories
and strategic reserves. Shipments then dropped during the second
half as demand gains slowed and inventories were pulled down.
Led by Brazil, shipments in the rest of the world, however, increased
at the robust rate of 4.0% per year or 8.1 million tonnes from 2010
to 2016.
The pace of demand growth clearly picked up this year. We now
estimate that global shipments will increase 3.0% or 2.0 million
tonnes to 68.3 million in 2017 and then climb another 1.8% or
1.2 million tonnes to 69.6 million in 2018. The insert provides a
breakdown by key country or region. CRU forecasts again are a bit
higher at 69.1 million tonnes this year and 70.1 million in 2018.
Looking further out, shipments are forecast to increase at a faster
clip than in the recent past. We project that global shipments of
these products will increase 2.1% per year or 9.0 million tonnes
from 2016 to 2022. The projected pick-up is due to an expected
worst-to-first turnaround in India, stable Chinese shipments, and
50
55
60
65
70
75
80
10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17E 18F 22F
Global Phosphate Shipments
Actual Range Point Estimate CRU Forecasts
Mil Tonnes
DAP/MAP/NPS/TSP
Source: Mosaic and CRU
45
50
55
60
65
70
75
10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17E 18F 22F
Global Potash Shipments
Actual Range Point Estimate CRU Forecasts
Mil Tonnes KCl
Source: Mosaic and CRU
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
10.0
10 12 14 16 18F
MMT Brazil
Source:
ANDA,
Mosaic
7.0
9.0
11.0
13.0
15.0
17.0
10 12 14 16 18F
MMT China
Source:
CRU,
Mosaic
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
5.5
6.0
6.5
10 12 14 16 18F
MMT India
Source: FAI,
CRU, Mosaic
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
5.5
6.0
10 12 14 16 18F
MMT
Indonesia+Malaysia
Source:CRU,Mosaic
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
10.0
10 12 14 16 18F
MMT North America
Source: IPNI, USDC, Mosaic
15.0
16.0
17.0
18.0
19.0
20.0
21.0
10 12 14 16 18F
MMT Rest of World
Source: IFA,
CRU, Mosaic
MOP Shipments
continued solid gains elsewhere. Indian demand is expected
to get back on a growth trajectory as a result of high minimum
support prices for key crops, more moderate and less volatile
phosphate prices, a workable subsidy, and a stable to stronger
rupee. Shipments outside China and India are forecast to grow
2.5% per year or 6.2 million tonnes during this period. Prospects
for lower and less volatile raw materials costs are expected to help
keep phosphate prices at moderate levels and fuel steady gains
across the globe. CRU forecasts that demand will grow at a more
modest rate of 1.7% per year with shipments climbing to 74.4
million tonnes by 2022. The main difference is that CRU projects
a material decline in Chinese shipments during this period.
Slower-Than-Expected Ramp Ups
We expect that most of the P&K projects will start up a bit later
and ramp up more slowly than what analysts have plopped into
their spreadsheets. Mineral-based P&K projects typically are more
complicated to develop and require more time to ramp up than
non-mineral-based projects for several reasons.
First, the development of a world-scale greenfield mine is a
big and costly undertaking that often takes longer than planned due
to geological and other surprises encountered along the way. This
is especially the case for the development of deep underground
potash mines using shaft or solution mining technologies.
Second, refining mineral ores, particularly phosphate rock,
involves nearly as much art as science in order to get the process
and recipe just right. For example, the chemical reactions when
sulphuric acid and phosphate rock are combined are impacted by
the amounts of trace minerals as well as other characteristics of
the ore, and ore quality can vary significantly even within the same
deposit. By contrast, while nitrogen production is energy intensive
and requires high-pressure vessels and other sophisticated
equipment, the chemistry is relatively simple and precise once
you flip the switch.
Finally, P&K projects require the handling of large amounts of bulk
materials including raw ore, refined ore, co-products, other raw
materials, water and finished products. Calibrating all of these
flows, especially for a world-scale greenfield project, often takes
more time than planned.
So far, it looks like recent start-ups are following this pattern. In the
case of phosphate, the market is closely watching two start-ups
-- the Ma’aden Wa’ad al Shamal Phosphate Company (MWSPC)
joint venture in Saudi Arabia and Jorf Phosphate Hubs 3 & 4 (JPH
3 & JPH 4) in Morocco. Most analysts had projected that these
facilities would be flooding the market by now, causing prices to
plummet. That has not happened so far due to a combination of
developments. A slower-than-planned start-up of each of these
facilities is one of them.
The MWSPC joint venture began production in July and is expected
to produce about 450,000 tonnes of DAP in 2017. That is less
than half of its initial plan and market expectation of about 1.0
million tonnes. We expect production will ramp up to 1.5-2.0
million tonnes in 2018 before the complex reaches a capacity of
3.0 million tonnes in 2019.
In Morocco, the JPH 3 granulation plant reportedly started up last
spring utilizing phosphoric acid from other plants at the sprawling
Jorf complex. The JPH 3 phosphoric acid plant started up late
last summer, officially marking the increase in phosphate output,
about six months later than expected. JPH 4 was scheduled to
start up late this year, but industry publications have reported that
commissioning is not expected until late second quarter of next
year. The granulation plant likely will begin production ahead
of the phosphoric acid plant by a few months, initially providing
the company with more product-mix flexibility before additional
phosphate comes on the market.
In the case of potash, two greenfield projects started up this year
– the 1.4 million tonne project in Turkmenistan and the 2.0 million
tonne project of K+S in Saskatchewan. Two world-scale projects
are scheduled to start-up in Russian next year. Potash prices
have moved steadily upward since mid-2016. New supplies have
not yet broken that trend. Again, one reason is the slower-than-
planned start-up of new capacity.
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0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
10 12 14 16 18F
Brazil MMT
Source: ANDA, Mosaic
0
3
6
9
12
15
18
21
24
10 12 14 16 18F
ChinaMMT
Source: CRU, Mosaic
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
10 12 14 16 18F
India MMT
Source: CRU, Mosaic
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
10 12 14 16 18F
Other Latin America MMT
Source: CRU, Mosaic
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
10 12 14 16 18F
Other AsiaMMT
Source: CRU, Mosaic
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
10 12 14 16 18F
Africa/FSU MMT
Source: CRU, Mosaic
DAP/MAP/TSP/NPS Shipments
In Turkmenistan, the small Garlyk facility reportedly was
commissioned at the end of March, but only small quantities
from this facility have shown up in the global market this year,
indicating that either most of the output is staying in the local
area or production is ramping up more slowly than expected.
In Saskatchewan, the K+S Bethune facility produced its first
tonne of potash on June 12, but the company did not export
its first vessel of standard grade product until October 24.
Management recently indicated that the facility is expected
to produce 500,000 tonnes KCl this year, down from its prior
estimate of 600,000 to 700,000 tonnes. Management also
said it expects output to climb to 1.7 million tonnes in 2018.
Management also noted that Phase II of the project, taking
capacity from 2.0 to 2.9 million tonnes per year, will not come
online until the second half of the next decade.
In Russia, EuroChem is developing two world-scale projects
– the Usolskiy facility in the Perm region (home to Uralkali
operations) and the Volgakaliy project in the Volgograd region.
Management laid out the expected ramp up of these facilities
in a recent investor presentation. Capacity is expected to total
1.1 million tonnes KCl in 2018, but management emphasized
that production likely will be less than capacity at around
500,000 tonnes next year. The Usolskiy mine is expected
to start up either very late this year or early next year and
produce 500,000 tonnes in 2018. The Volgakaliy project in the
southern Volgograd region is not expected to begin commercial
production until early 2019. Combined capacity is projected to
ramp steadily over time reaching 2.3 million tonnes in 2019 and
3.5 million in 2020, but the facilities are not expected to reach
design capacity of 8.3 million tonnes until 2024 or 2025.
There are two greenfield projects at early stages of development
in Belarus that are not expected to begin commercial operation
until after 2022. The first is the Belaruskali Petrikovsky project
in the southern Gomel region. The second is the Slavkaliy
project at Nezhinsky.
Optimizing Operations
Like the bison, some companies are charging directly into this
storm. They are optimizing operations by idling higher-cost
facilities and running lower-cost operations at high and steady
rates in order to reduce unit costs and compete profitably in this
new market environment. North American potash producers,
having riled up the atmosphere with their own expansions,
have led the charge. Phosphate producers typically have fewer
options to flex operations, but significant structural changes also
are beginning to take place from China to the United States.
Potash Supply and Demand
Let’s start by looking at the changes in the North American
potash industry. Like producers elsewhere, Canadian producers
invested large amounts of capital to expand operations following
the 2007-08 price fly-up. The combination of excess capacity,
declines in global shipments in 2015 and 2016, and the
collapse of currencies and costs in the FSU resulted in a sharp
drop in potash prices in 2015/16. Facing lower prices and the
eventual start-up of these greenfield projects, North American
producers made changes - optimization became the name of
the game. North American producers have indefinitely idled or
permanently closed 3.6 million tonnes of capacity since 2014.
In fact, nearly all of the North American facilities that were at the
right end of the industry cost curve are closed today.
In the case of Mosaic, cash costs fob mine declined 34%
from $133 tonne KCl in 2013 to $88 tonne in 2016. Mosaic
closed two smaller and higher cost operations at Hersey, MI
and Carlsbad, NM in 2014 and temporarily idled its Colonsay
operation in Saskatchewan for part of 2016.
Outside North America, other companies also are beginning to
optimize operations by idling or closing high-cost operations or
transitioning to the production of specialty products. For example,
K+S recently announced that it will close the Sigmundshall
mine in Germany by the end of next year just as the Bethune
operation is ramping up, and ICL is rapidly transitioning its UK
Boulby mine from MOP to polyhalite production.
The bottom line is that the combination of 3% demand growth,
realistic ramp-ups of greenfield projects, and recent optimization
of existing operations results in a reasonably balanced outlook
for the next five years – not the Potash Armageddon forecast by
many analysts. Our most recent estimates show that the global
operating rate is forecast to dip from 89% in 2016 to around
87% in 2018 before trending back up to 90% by the end of the
forecast period.
Phosphate Supply and Demand
In the case of phosphate, similar changes are beginning to take
place. For example, Mosaic announced the temporary idling
of its Plant City facility on October 31. The loss of 1.5 million
40
60
80
100
120
140
2013 2014 2015 2016
$ Tonne
Mosaic Potash Costs
Cash Costs fob Mine
Production Brine Management
55%
60%
65%
70%
75%
80%
85%
90%
95%
100%
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17F 18F 19F 20F 21F 22F
Op Rate Mil Tonnes
KCl
Source: Company Reports, CRU and Mosaic
Global Potash Supply and Demand
MOP Capacity, Production and Operating Rate
Capacity Production Operating Rate
tonnes of DAP/MAP production eventually will be more than
made up by its 25% of MWSPC output (750,000 tonnes when
fully ramped up) and the solid high-analysis capacity obtained
from the pending acquisition of the Vale Fertilizantes S.A.
business (about 1.8 million tonnes of MAP/TSP at Uberaba). So
Mosaic will continue to serve its customers from North America
to Brazil to India from a more diversified and cost-competitive
portfolio of phosphate facilities.
Some changes are taking place and more are expected to take
place in China next year. While we were too early in making
this call, we still expect that a significant restructuring of the
large and diverse Chinese industry will occur – driven mainly
by new environmental taxes and tighter regulations. However,
Chinese DAP/MAP/TSP exports were up 20% through October
and likely will end the year at or even a bit greater than the
9.5 million tonnes exported last year. Larger-than-expected
exports this year are a testament to strong demand growth
and relatively high export prices. Nevertheless, interests of the
domestic industry that seeks to boost profitability and interests
of the central government that wants to improve air and water
quality are closely aligned. At the end of the day, we expect
China will produce slightly less phosphate but from a smaller,
more profitable and environmentally compliant industry in the
near future.
The bottom line for phosphate looks even more constructive
than for potash. There are no world-scale projects in the
pipeline behind JPH 3 and JPH 4 in Morocco and MWSPC in
Saudi Arabia. If demand grows at the moderate pace of just
more than 2% per year, we project that the global phosphoric
acid operating rate will trend upward from 83% in 2016 to 90%
by 2022. The idling of Mosaic’s Plant City facility is expected to
help boost this rate from 83% in 2017 to 86% in 2018 and pull
forward the projected recovery about one year.
This document contains forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Such statements include, but are
not limited to, statements about our proposed acquisition of the global phosphate and potash operations of Vale S.A. (“Vale”) conducted through Vale Fertilizantes
S.A. (the “Transaction”) and the anticipated benefits and synergies of the proposed Transaction, other proposed or pending future transactions or strategic plans
and other statements about future financial and operating results. Such statements are based upon the current beliefs and expectations of The Mosaic Company’s
management and are subject to significant risks and uncertainties. These risks and uncertainties include but are not limited to risks and uncertainties arising from
the possibility that the closing of the proposed Transaction may be delayed or may not occur, including delays or risks arising from any inability to satisfy closing
conditions; difficulties with realization of the benefits of the proposed Transaction, including the risks that the acquired business may not be integrated successfully
or that the anticipated synergies or cost or capital expenditure savings from the Transaction may not be fully realized or may take longer to realize than expected,
including because of political and economic instability in Brazil or changes in government policy in Brazil; the predictability and volatility of, and customer expectations
about, agriculture, fertilizer, raw material, energy and transportation markets that are subject to competitive and other pressures and economic and credit market
conditions; the level of inventories in the distribution channels for crop nutrients; the effect of future product innovations or development of new technologies on
demand for our products; changes in foreign currency and exchange rates; international trade risks and other risks associated with Mosaic’s international operations
and those of joint ventures in which Mosaic participates, including the performance of the Wa’ad Al Shamal Phosphate Company (also known as MWSPC) and
the entity operating the Miski Mayo mine, the risk that protests against natural resource companies in Peru extend to or impact the Miski Mayo mine, the ability of
MWSPC to obtain additional planned funding in acceptable amounts and upon acceptable terms, the timely development and commencement of operations of
production facilities in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, the future success of current plans for MWSPC and any future changes in those plans; difficulties with realization
of the benefits of our long term natural gas based pricing ammonia supply agreement with CF Industries, Inc., including the risk that the cost savings initially
anticipated from the agreement may not be fully realized over its term or that the price of natural gas or ammonia during the term are at levels at which the pricing
is disadvantageous to Mosaic; customer defaults; the effects of Mosaic’s decisions to exit business operations or locations; changes in government policy; changes in
environmental and other governmental regulation, including expansion of the types and extent of water resources regulated under federal law, carbon taxes or other
greenhouse gas regulation, implementation of numeric water quality standards for the discharge of nutrients into Florida waterways or efforts to reduce the flow
of excess nutrients into the Mississippi River basin, the Gulf of Mexico or elsewhere; further developments in judicial or administrative proceedings, or complaints
that Mosaic’s operations are adversely impacting nearby farms, business operations or properties; difficulties or delays in receiving, increased costs of or challenges
to necessary governmental permits or approvals or increased financial assurance requirements; resolution of global tax audit activity; the effectiveness of Mosaic’s
processes for managing its strategic priorities; adverse weather conditions affecting operations in Central Florida, the Mississippi River basin, the Gulf Coast of the
United States or Canada, and including potential hurricanes, excess heat, cold, snow, rainfall or drought; actual costs of various items differing from management’s
current estimates, including, among others, asset retirement, environmental remediation, reclamation or other environmental regulation, Canadian resources taxes
and royalties, or the costs of the MWSPC, its existing or future funding and Mosaic’s commitments in support of such funding; reduction of Mosaic’s available cash and
liquidity, and increased leverage, due to its use of cash and/or available debt capacity to fund financial
assurance requirements and strategic investments; brine inflows at Mosaic’s Esterhazy, Saskatchewan,
potash mine or other potash shaft mines; other accidents and disruptions involving Mosaic’s operations,
including potential mine fires, floods, explosions, seismic events, sinkholes or releases of hazardous
or volatile chemicals; and risks associated with cyber security, including reputational loss, as well as
other risks and uncertainties reported from time to time in The Mosaic Company’s reports filed with
the Securities and Exchange Commission. Actual results may differ from those set forth in the forward-
looking statements
Copyright © 2017. The Mosaic Company. All rights reserved.
The Mosaic Company
Atria Corporate Center, Suite E490
3033 Campus Drive
Plymouth, MN 55441
(800) 918-8270
(763) 577-2700
®
65%
70%
75%
80%
85%
90%
95%
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17F 18F 19F 20F 21F 22F
Op Rate Mil Tonnes
P2O5
Source: Company Reports, CRU and Mosaic
Global Phosphate Supply and Demand
Acid Capacity, Production and Operating Rate
Capacity Production Operating Rate