EX-99.1 2 dex991.htm PRESENTATION ENTITLED AGRICULTURAL AND FERTILIZER SITUATION AND OUTLOOK Presentation entitled Agricultural and Fertilizer Situation and Outlook
Agriculture and Fertilizer Situation and Outlook:
North America
by
Jim Thompson
Executive Vice President
Commercial
Enlarged Council Meeting
International Fertilizer Industry Association
Sevilla, Spain
November 14-17, 2005
Exhibit 99.1

2
Forward-
Looking Statements
Certain
statements
contained
herein
constitute
“forward-looking
statements”
as
that
term
is
defined
under
the
Private
Securities
Litigation
Reform
Act
of
1995.
Although
we
believe
the
assumptions
made
in
connection
with
the
forward-looking
statements
are
reasonable,
they
do
involve
known
and
unknown
risks,
uncertainties
and
other
factors
that
may
cause
the
actual
results,
performance
or
achievements
of
The
Mosaic
Company,
or
industry
results
generally,
to
be
materially
different
from
those
contemplated
or
projected,
forecasted,
estimated
or
budgeted
(whether
expressed
or
implied)
by
such
statements.
Factors
affecting
forward-looking
statements
may
include,
among
others,
the
ability
to
successfully
integrate
the
former
operations
of
IMC
and
the
Cargill
fertilizer
businesses;
the
ability
to
fully
realize
the
expected
cost
savings
from
the
business
combination
between
IMC
and
the
Cargill
fertilizer
businesses
within
expected
time
frames;
the
ability
to
develop
and
execute
comprehensive
plans
for
asset
optimization
and/or
rationalization;
the
financial
resources
of,
and
products
available
to,
Mosaic’s
competitors;
the
retention
of
existing,
and
continued
attraction
of
additional,
customers
and
key
employees;
changes
in
the
outlook
of
the
nitrogen,
phosphate
or
potash
markets;
changes
in
the
costs
of
raw
materials
or
energy;
the
effect
of
any
conditions
or
restrictions
imposed
on
or
proposed
with
respect
to
Mosaic
by
regulators;
the
effect
of
legislative
or
regulatory
changes
in
jurisdictions
where
Mosaic
operates;
the
ability
of
Mosaic
to
obtain
the
regulatory
permits
necessary
for
the
continued
operation
of
its
businesses
in
a
manner
consistent
with
current
practices
or
anticipated
expansions;
contingencies
related
to
environmental
liability
under
U.S.
federal
and
state
and
foreign
environmental
laws
and
regulations;
adverse
weather
conditions
affecting
central
Florida
or
the
Gulf
Coast
of
the
United
States,
including
the
impact
of
potential
hurricanes
or
excess
rainfall;
the
rating
of
The
Mosaic
Company’s
and
Mosaic
Global
Holding
Inc.’s
securities
and
the
changes
that
may
occur
in
the
U.S.
securities
markets;
and
the
factors
described
in
our
filings
with
the
SEC,
including
our
Quarterly
Report
on
Form
10-Q
for
the
fiscal
quarter
ended
August
31,
2005.
This
presentation
may
not
be
distributed,
reproduced,
or
used
without
the
express
written
consent
of
The
Mosaic
Company.
Safe Harbor Statement

3
1.
Agricultural Developments
Farmers harvested two large crops in a row 
Demand will match the large harvest this year
U.S. farm income will remain at high levels
Record energy prices will impact farm production costs and crop mix
2.
Nutrient Demand Prospects
High energy costs will cause a modest switch from corn to soybeans
Record high fertilizer prices will force moderate cuts in application rates
North American nutrient use is forecast to drop 5%
3.
Nutrient Market Drivers
High and volatile gas prices will further reduce NA nitrogen production
Hurricanes and an anticipated plant closure will cut phosphate supply
Potash supply is catching up with demand
Outline of Presentation

Agricultural Developments

5
North American Grain and Oilseed Production
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
550
600
90
91
92
93
94
95
96
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
MMT
USA
Canada
Source: USDA
Farmers harvested two large crops in a row

6
U.S. Ethanol Production
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
80
81
82
83
84
85
86
87
88
89
90
91
92
93
94
95
96
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05E
Mil Gallons
Source: EIA & Renewable Fuel Association
Record corn demand will absorb the large harvest
U.S. Corn Production
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
9000
10000
11000
12000
70
75
80
85
90
95
00
05
Mil Bu
Source: USDA
U.S. Corn Use
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
9000
10000
11000
12000
70
75
80
85
90
95
00
05
Mil Bu
Feed & Residual
Food & Industrial
Exports
Source: USDA
U.S. Corn Stocks
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
5000
70
75
80
85
90
95
00
05
Mil Bu
0
7
14
21
28
35
42
49
56
63
70
Pct of Use
Million Bu
Pct of Use
Source: USDA

7
U.S. Soybean Stocks
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
550
600
70
75
80
85
90
95
00
05
Mil Bu
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
Pct of Use
Million Bu
Pct of Use
Source: USDA
U.S. Soybean Production
0
300
600
900
1200
1500
1800
2100
2400
2700
3000
3300
70
75
80
85
90
95
00
05
Mil Bu
Source: USDA
U.S. Soybean Use
0
300
600
900
1200
1500
1800
2100
2400
2700
3000
3300
70
75
80
85
90
95
00
05
Mil Bu
Crush
Seed & Residual
Exports
Source: USDA
Soybean stocks increase due to big crop

8
New Crop Wheat
2.8
3.0
3.2
3.4
3.6
3.8
4.0
4.2
4.4
4.6
0602
0801
0930
1129
0128
0328
0527
MM/DD
$ BU
KCBOT 2004N
KCBOT 2005N
KCBOT 2006N
Source: KCBOT
New crop prices are the same or higher than last year
New Crop Corn
2.0
2.1
2.2
2.3
2.4
2.5
2.6
2.7
2.8
2.9
3.0
3.1
3.2
3.3
3.4
0701
0915
1130
0214
0430
0715
MM/DD
$ BU
CBOT 2004Z
CBOT 2005Z
CBOT 2006Z
Source: CBOT
New Crop Soybean
5.0
5.2
5.4
5.6
5.8
6.0
6.2
6.4
6.6
6.8
7.0
7.2
7.4
7.6
7.8
8.0
0701
0915
1130
0214
0430
0715
MM/DD
$ BU
CBOT 2004X
CBOT 2005X
CBOT 2006X
Source: CBOT

9
U.S. farm income will remain at high levels
U.S. Net Cash Farm Income
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
80
81
82
83
84
85
86
87
88
89
90
91
92
93
94
95
96
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05F
Bil $
Market
Gov Payments
Source: USDA

Nutrient Demand Prospects

11
Only a modest switch from corn to soybeans
U.S. Planted Acreage
56
58
60
62
64
66
68
70
72
74
76
78
80
82
84
90
91
92
93
94
95
96
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05E
06F
Mil Acres
Corn
Soybeans
All Wheat
Source: USDA and Mosaic

12
Moderate declines in application rates are forecast
U.S. Phosphate Application Rates
1988-92 Average = 100
80
85
90
95
100
105
110
90
91
92
93
94
95
96
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05E
06F
Source:  USDA and CBOT
Percent
1.80
2.10
2.40
2.70
3.00
3.30
3.60
$ BU
On Corn
New Crop Corn Price (AMJ Average)
U.S. Potash Application Rates
1988-92 Average = 100
80
85
90
95
100
105
110
90
91
92
93
94
95
96
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05E
06F
Source:  USDA and CBOT
Percent
1.8
2.1
2.4
2.7
3.0
3.3
3.6
$ BU
On Corn
New Crop Corn Prices (AMJ Quarterly Avg.)

U.S. Fertilizer Use
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
22
90
91
92
93
94
95
96
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05E
06F
MMT
N
P2O5
K2O
U.S. nutrient use is forecast to decline 5% in 05/06

Canada Nutrient Use
0.00
0.25
0.50
0.75
1.00
1.25
1.50
1.75
2.00
2.25
2.50
2.75
3.00
90
91
92
93
94
95
96
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05E
06F
MMT
N
P2O5
K2O
Canadian use also is forecast to decline 5% in 05/06

Nitrogen

16
NYMEX Henry Hub Natural Gas Winter Strip
Average of the Daily Closing Prices of the Nov 05 to Mar 06 Options
7.0
8.0
9.0
10.0
11.0
12.0
13.0
14.0
15.0
Apr 05
May 05
Jun 05
Jul 05
Aug 05
Sep 05
Oct 05
Nov 05
$ MMBTU
Source: NYMEX
U.S. natural gas prices remain high and volatile

17
N.A. nitrogen production expected to decline again
North American Ammonia Production
0
3
6
9
12
15
18
21
24
90
91
92
93
94
95
96
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06F
Fertilizer Year Ending June 30
Mil ST
U.S.
Canada
Source: TFI and Mosaic

18
Imports have filled the gap
U.S. Nitrogen Use
0
3
6
9
12
15
18
90
91
92
93
94
95
96
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05F
06F
Fertilizer Year Ending June 30
Mil ST N
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Percent
Net Imports
Total Use
Imports as Percent of Use
Source: TFI and Mosaic

Phosphate

20
U.S. phosphate exports are projected to decline
Processed phosphate
includes DAP, MAP and TSP
U.S. Processed Phosphate Exports
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
90
91
92
93
94
95
96
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06F
Fertilizer Year Ending June 30
Mil Tons
DAP
MAP
TSP

21
U.S. domestic shipments are projected to decline
Processed phosphate
includes DAP, MAP and TSP
U.S. Processed Phosphate Domestic Shipments
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
90
91
92
93
94
95
96
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06F
Fertilizer Year Ending June 30
Mil Tons
DAP
MAP
TSP

22
Processed phosphate
includes DAP, MAP and TSP
U.S. Processed Phosphate Production
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
22
90
91
92
93
94
95
96
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06F
Fertilizer Year Ending June 30
MST
DAP
MAP
TSP
Supply decreases are in line with the drop in demand

23
U.S.
phosphate
production
will
decline
significantly
U.S. DAP/MAP Production
3,000
3,100
3,200
3,300
3,400
3,500
3,600
3,700
3,800
3,900
4,000
JAS
OND
JFM
AMJ
Source:  TFI and Mosaic
1000 MT
2004/05
2005/06 Actual
2005/06 Forecast
U.S. Phosphoric Acid Production
2,200
2,300
2,400
2,500
2,600
2,700
2,800
JAS
OND
JFM
AMJ
Source:  TFI and Mosaic
1000 MT P
O
5
2004/05
2005/06 Actual
2005/06 Forecast
2

24
Stocks have dropped to low levels today
U.S. DAP and MAP Producer Total Stocks
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
JUL
AUG
SEP
OCT
NOV
DEC
JAN
FEB
MAR
APR
MAY
JUN
MIN MAX Range (1994/95-2003/04)
04/05 Actual
3-Yr Avg
Source: TFI and Mosaic
U.S. DAP and MAP Producer Total Stocks
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
JUL
AUG
SEP
OCT
NOV
DEC
JAN
FEB
MA
APR
MAY
JUN
MIN MAX Range (1995/96-2004/05)
05/06 Actual
3-Yr Avg
Source: TFI and Mosaic

Potash

26
Demand growth slows but stays at high levels
NA Potash Offshore Exports
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
90
91
92
93
94
95
96
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06F
Fertilizer Year Ending June 30
MST K2O
Canada  
US
Source: PPI and Mosaic

27
Domestic shipments likely will fall 5%
North American Potash Shipments
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
90
91
92
93
94
95
96
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06F
Fertilizer Year Ending June 30
MST K2O

28
Production likely will remain flat in 2005/06
North American Potash Production
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
90
91
92
93
94
95
96
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06F
Fertilizer Year Ending June 30
MST K2O
Canada  
US
Source: PPI and Mosaic

29
Stocks likely will build to more adequate levels
NA Potash Stocks at Month End                                   
300
500
700
900
1100
1300
1500
1700
1900
2100
2300
2500
JUL
AUG
SEP
OCT
NOV
DEC
JAN
FEB
MAR
APR
MAY
JUN
1000 ST K
2
O
MIN MAX Range (1994/95-2003/04)
2004/05
3 Year Average
Source: PPI and Mosaic
NA Potash Stocks at Month End                              
300
500
700
900
1100
1300
1500
1700
1900
2100
2300
2500
JUL
AUG
SEP
OCT
NOV
DEC
JAN
FEB
MA
APR
MAY
JUN
MIN MAX Range (1995/96-2004/05)
2005/06
3 Year Average
Source: PPI and Mosaic
1000 ST K
2
O

30
North American Potash Demand Supplied From:
0.37
0.63
96.4%
94.7%
98.3%
0.21
9.0
9.5
10.0
10.5
11.0
11.5
12.0
12.5
13.0
2003
2004
2005
Fertilizer Year Ending June 30
MMT K
2
O
Production+Imports
Stock Draw
Source: PPI, US DOC
Recent demand was met by a large stock draw-down

Agriculture and Fertilizer Situation and Outlook:
North America
by
Jim Thompson
Executive Vice President
Commercial
Enlarged Council Meeting
International Fertilizer Industry Association
Seville, Spain
November 14-17, 2005
Thank You