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Income Taxes
 6 Months Ended
Jun. 30, 2024
Income Tax Disclosure [Abstract]  
Income Taxes Income Taxes
Overview
 
AGL is a tax resident in the U.K. although it remains a Bermuda-based company and its administrative and head office functions continue to be carried on in Bermuda.

Under Bermuda law, there was no Bermuda income, corporate or profits tax or withholding tax, capital gains tax or capital transfer tax payable by AGL or the Bermuda Subsidiaries (collectively, AG Re, AGRO and Cedar Personnel Ltd.) in 2023 and six months 2024.
In July of 2023, the U.K. government passed legislation to implement the Organization for Economic Co-Operation and Development’s (OECD) Base Erosion and Profit Shifting (BEPS) Pillar Two income inclusion rule. This includes a multinational top-up tax which will apply to large multinational corporations for accounting periods beginning on or after December 31, 2023. This applies to AGL and its subsidiaries, requiring a minimum effective rate of 15% in all jurisdictions in which they operate.

On December 27, 2023 the Bermuda government enacted a corporate income tax at the rate of 15% which will apply the Bermuda Subsidiaries for accounting periods starting on or after January 1, 2025. The enactment of the corporate income tax regime required the Company to recognize Bermuda deferred taxes for the first time and was recognized in the period that includes the date of enactment. An economic transition adjustment (ETA) equal to the difference between the fair market value and the carrying value of assets and liabilities of each of the Company’s Bermuda insurance subsidiaries as of September 30, 2023 resulted in the establishment of a deferred tax asset and corresponding benefit of $189 million reported in the fourth quarter of 2023 consolidated statement of operations. The ETA is expected to be utilized over 10 to 15 years, beginning in 2025.

AGL’s U.S., U.K. and French subsidiaries are subject to income taxes imposed by U.S., U.K. and French authorities, respectively, and file applicable tax returns. In addition, AGRO, a Bermuda domiciled company, has elected under Internal Revenue Code Section 953(d) to be taxed as a U.S. domestic corporation.

AGUS files a consolidated federal income tax return with all of its U.S. subsidiaries. Assured Guaranty Overseas US Holdings Inc. and its subsidiaries, AGRO and AG Intermediary Inc., file their own consolidated federal income tax return.

Tax Assets (Liabilities)

Deferred and Current Tax Assets (Liabilities)
As of
June 30, 2024December 31, 2023
(in millions)
Net deferred tax assets (liabilities)$259 $250 
Net current tax assets (liabilities)7 (9)

Valuation Allowance
 
The Company came to the conclusion that it is more likely than not that the deferred tax assets will be fully realized after weighing all positive and negative evidence available as required under GAAP. The positive evidence that was considered included the cumulative income the Company has earned over the last three years and the significant unearned premium income to be included in taxable income. The positive evidence outweighs any negative evidence that exists. As such, the Company believes that no valuation allowance is necessary in connection with the remaining deferred tax assets. The Company will continue to analyze the need for a valuation allowance on a quarterly basis.

Changes in market conditions during 2024 and 2023, including rising interest rates, resulted in the recording of deferred tax assets related to net unrealized tax capital losses. When assessing recoverability of these deferred tax assets, the Company considers the ability and intent to hold the underlying securities to recovery in value, if necessary, as well as other factors as noted above. As of June 30, 2024 and December 31, 2023, based on all available evidence, including capital loss carryback capacity, the Company concluded that the deferred tax assets related to the unrealized tax capital losses on the available-for-sale securities portfolios are, more likely than not, expected to be realized.

Provision for Income Taxes

    The Company’s provision for income taxes for interim financial periods is not based on an estimated annual effective rate due, for example, to the variability in loss reserves, fair value of its credit derivatives and VIEs and foreign exchange gains and losses which prevents the Company from projecting a reliable estimated annual effective tax rate and pre-tax income for the full year 2024. A discrete calculation of the provision is calculated for each interim period.

    The Company’s overall effective tax rate fluctuates based on the distribution of income across jurisdictions. The effective tax rates reflect the proportion of income recognized by each of the Company’s operating subsidiaries, with
•U.S. subsidiaries taxed at the U.S. marginal corporate income tax rate of 21%,
•the French subsidiary taxed at the French marginal corporate tax rate of 25%,
•Bermuda Subsidiaries taxed at the Bermuda marginal corporate tax rate of 0%, unless subject to U.S. tax by election, and
•U.K. subsidiaries taxed at the U.K. marginal corporate tax rate of 25% for periods starting April 1, 2023 and 19% for periods ending on or before March 31, 2023. Effective January 1, 2024, the U.K. adopted a global minimum tax rate of 15% under the OECD’s BEPS Pillar Two rules.
 
A reconciliation of the difference between the provision for income taxes and the expected tax provision at statutory rates in taxable jurisdictions is presented below.

Effective Tax Rate Reconciliation  
 Second QuarterSix Months
 2024202320242023
 (in millions)
Expected tax provision (benefit)$16 $23 $39 $43 
Tax-exempt interest(2)(3)(4)(6)
NCI— — (1)(3)
State taxes1 4 3 7 
Foreign taxes(3)(4)2 1 
Global minimum tax2 — 7 — 
Other(1)(2)(2)(1)
Total provision (benefit) for income taxes$13 $18 $44 $41 
Effective tax rate14.5 %12.6 %18.6 %15.6 %

The expected tax provision (benefit) is calculated as the sum of pre-tax income in each jurisdiction multiplied by the statutory tax rate of the jurisdiction by which it will be taxed. Where there is a pre-tax loss in one jurisdiction and pre-tax income in another, the total combined expected tax rate may be higher or lower than any of the individual statutory rates.

 The following tables present pre-tax income and revenue by jurisdiction.
 
Pre-tax Income (Loss) by Tax Jurisdiction
 Second QuarterSix Months
 2024202320242023
 (in millions)
U.S.$87 $117 $216 $225 
Bermuda17 33 47 58 
U.K. (7)(4)(18)(15)
France(3)(2)(7)(4)
Total$94 $144 $238 $264 

Revenue by Tax Jurisdiction
 Second QuarterSix Months
 2024202320242023
 (in millions)
U.S.$166 $293 $370 $528 
Bermuda31 58 67 93 
U.K.5 8 11 21 
France— 1 (1)1 
Total$202 $360 $447 $643 
     
Pre-tax income by jurisdiction may be disproportionate to revenue by jurisdiction to the extent that insurance losses incurred are disproportionate.

Audits

As of June 30, 2024, AGUS had open tax years with the U.S. Internal Revenue Service (IRS) for 2018 forward and is currently under audit for the 2018 and 2019 tax years. As of June 30, 2024, Assured Guaranty Overseas US Holdings Inc. had open tax years with the IRS for 2020 forward and is not currently under audit with the IRS. In September 2022, His Majesty’s Revenue & Customs (HMRC) completed a business risk review of Assured Guaranty that commenced in July 2022 and assigned a low-risk rating for corporate taxes in the U.K. In December 2023, HMRC issued an inquiry into the Company’s 2021 U.K. tax returns. As of December 31, 2023, the Company's U.K. subsidiaries had open tax years with HMRC for 2021 forward. The Company’s French subsidiary is not currently under examination and has open tax years of 2020 forward.