0001273813-18-000002.txt : 20180222 0001273813-18-000002.hdr.sgml : 20180222 20180222172743 ACCESSION NUMBER: 0001273813-18-000002 CONFORMED SUBMISSION TYPE: 8-K PUBLIC DOCUMENT COUNT: 4 CONFORMED PERIOD OF REPORT: 20180222 ITEM INFORMATION: Results of Operations and Financial Condition ITEM INFORMATION: Financial Statements and Exhibits FILED AS OF DATE: 20180222 DATE AS OF CHANGE: 20180222 FILER: COMPANY DATA: COMPANY CONFORMED NAME: ASSURED GUARANTY LTD CENTRAL INDEX KEY: 0001273813 STANDARD INDUSTRIAL CLASSIFICATION: SURETY INSURANCE [6351] IRS NUMBER: 000000000 STATE OF INCORPORATION: D0 FISCAL YEAR END: 1231 FILING VALUES: FORM TYPE: 8-K SEC ACT: 1934 Act SEC FILE NUMBER: 001-32141 FILM NUMBER: 18633677 BUSINESS ADDRESS: STREET 1: 30 WOODBOURNE AVE STREET 2: 5TH FLOOR CITY: HAMILTON BERMUDA STATE: D0 ZIP: HM08 BUSINESS PHONE: 441-279-5700 MAIL ADDRESS: STREET 1: 30 WOODBOURNE AVE STREET 2: 5TH FLOOR CITY: HAMILTON BERMUDA STATE: D0 ZIP: HM08 FORMER COMPANY: FORMER CONFORMED NAME: AGR LTD DATE OF NAME CHANGE: 20040122 FORMER COMPANY: FORMER CONFORMED NAME: AGC HOLDINGS LTD DATE OF NAME CHANGE: 20031218 8-K 1 a8-k4q2017agl.htm 8-K Document




UNITED STATES
SECURITIES AND EXCHANGE COMMISSION
Washington, D.C. 20549
FORM 8-K
Current Report
Pursuant to Section 13 or 15 (d) of the
Securities Exchange Act of 1934
Date of Report (Date of earliest event reported) — February 22, 2018
ASSURED GUARANTY LTD.
(Exact name of registrant as specified in its charter)
Bermuda
 
001-32141
 
98-0429991
(State or other jurisdiction of incorporation or organization)
 
(Commission File Number)
 
(I.R.S. Employer Identification No.)
Assured Guaranty Ltd.
30 Woodbourne Avenue
Hamilton HM 08 Bermuda
(Address of principal executive offices)
 
Registrant’s telephone number, including area code: (441) 279-5700
Not applicable
(Former name or former address, if changed since last report)
Check the appropriate box below if the Form 8-K filing is intended to simultaneously satisfy the filing obligation of the registrant under any of the following provisions (see General Instruction A.2. below):

o Written communications pursuant to Rule 425 under the Securities Act (17 CFR 230.425)
o Soliciting material pursuant to Rule 14a-12 under the Exchange Act (17 CFR 240.14a-12)
o Pre-commencement communications pursuant to Rule 14d-2(b) under the Exchange Act (17 CFR 240.14d‑2(b))
o Pre-commencement communications pursuant to Rule 13e-4(c) under the Exchange Act (17 CFR 240.13e‑4(c))
Indicate by check mark whether the registrant is an emerging growth company as defined in Rule 405 of the Securities Act of 1933 (17 CFR §230.405) or Rule 12b-2 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 (17 CFR §240.12b-2).
Emerging growth company o

If an emerging growth company, indicate by check mark if the registrant has elected not to use the extended transition period for complying with any new or revised financial accounting standards provided pursuant to Section 13(a) of the Exchange Act. o



1






Item 2.02
Results of Operations and Financial Condition

On February 22, 2018, Assured Guaranty Ltd. issued a press release reporting its fourth quarter 2017 results and the availability of its December 31, 2017 financial supplement. The press release and the financial supplement are attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1 and Exhibit 99.2, respectively, and are incorporated by reference herein.





2



SIGNATURES
Pursuant to the requirements of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, the Registrant has duly caused this report to be signed on its behalf by the undersigned thereunto duly authorized.
 
ASSURED GUARANTY LTD. 
 
 
 
 
 
By:
/s/ Robert A. Bailenson


 
 
Name: Robert A. Bailenson
 
 
Title: Chief Financial Officer

DATE: February 22, 2018



3
EX-99.1 2 agl4q17pressrelease.htm AGL PRESS RELEASE Exhibit
agllogo.jpg

Assured Guaranty Ltd. Reports Results for Fourth Quarter 2017 and Full Year 2017

Net income was $52 million, or $0.44 per share, for fourth quarter 2017 and $730 million, or $5.96 per share, for FY 2017. Fourth quarter and FY 2017 net income includes a tax expense of $61 million for the estimated effect of the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act.

Non-GAAP operating income1 was $91 million, or $0.77 per share, for fourth quarter 2017, and $661 million, or $5.41 per share, for FY 2017.

Settlement reached in fourth quarter 2017 regarding a breach of representations and warranties claim, resulting in a pretax gain of $105 million.

Shareholders' equity per share, non-GAAP operating shareholders' equity1 per share and non-GAAP adjusted book value1 per share reached new records at $58.95, $56.20 and $77.74, respectively.

Share repurchases totaled $70 million, or 1.9 million shares, in fourth quarter 2017, for a total of $501 million, or 12.7 million shares, in FY 2017.

Gross written premium nearly doubled to $307 million in 2017 from $154 million in 2016, while PVP1 increased by approximately 35% to $289 million in 2017 from $214 million in 2016.


Hamilton, Bermuda, February 22, 2018 -- Assured Guaranty Ltd. (NYSE: AGO) (AGL and, together with its consolidated entities, Assured Guaranty or the Company) announced today its financial results for the three-month period ended December 31, 2017 (fourth quarter 2017) and the year ended December 31, 2017 (FY 2017).


1 Please see “Explanation of Non-GAAP Financial Measures.” When a financial measure is described as "operating," it is a non-GAAP financial measure.
1


Summary Financial Results
(in millions, except per share amounts)
 
Quarter Ended
 
Year Ended
 
December 31,
 
December 31,
 
2017
 
2016
 
2017
 
2016
Net income
$
52

 
$
197

 
$
730

 
$
881

Non-GAAP operating income (1)
91

 
139

 
661

 
895

Gain (loss) related to the effect of consolidating financial guaranty variable interest entities (FG VIE consolidation) included in non-GAAP operating income
2

 
16

 
11

 
12

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income per diluted share
$
0.44

 
$
1.49

 
$
5.96

 
$
6.56

Non-GAAP operating income (1) per diluted share
0.77

 
1.05

 
5.41

 
6.68

Gain (loss) related to FG VIE consolidation included in non-GAAP operating income per diluted share
0.02

 
0.12

 
0.10

 
0.10

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Diluted shares
118.9

 
131.7

 
122.3

 
134.1

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Gross written premiums (GWP)
$
72

 
$
83

 
$
307

 
$
154

Present value of new business production (PVP) (1)
77

 
85

 
289

 
214

Gross par written
4,776

 
5,643

 
18,024

 
17,854



Summary Financial Results (continued)
(in millions, except per share amounts)
 
As of
 
December 31, 2017
 
December 31, 2016
 
Amount
 
Per Share
 
Amount
 
Per Share
Shareholders' equity
$
6,839

 
$
58.95

 
$
6,504

 
$
50.82

Non-GAAP operating shareholders' equity(1)
6,521

 
56.20

 
6,386

 
49.89

Non-GAAP adjusted book value(1)
9,020

 
77.74

 
8,506

 
66.46

Gain (loss) related to FG VIE consolidation included in non-GAAP operating shareholders' equity
5

 
0.03

 
(7
)
 
(0.06
)
Gain (loss) related to FG VIE consolidation included in non-GAAP adjusted book value
(14
)
 
(0.12
)
 
(24
)
 
(0.18
)
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Common shares outstanding
116.0

 
 
 
128.0

 
 
________________________________________________
(1)
Please see “Explanation of Non-GAAP Financial Measures” at the end of this press release.






2


“We continued to strengthen the enterprise in 2017 through our strategies of new business production, efficient capital management, alternative strategies including acquisitions and commutations, and determined loss mitigation,” said Dominic Frederico, President and CEO. "The intrinsic value of an Assured Guaranty common share reached new heights, reflected in record non-GAAP adjusted book value per share, which increased 17% during the year. Our U.S. public finance, international infrastructure and structured finance new business operations combined to produce more annual PVP than in any year since 2010."


Tax Reform

The Company recognized a provisional tax expense of $61 million attributable to the estimated effect of tax reform under the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (Tax Act). This charge includes the net impact of the deemed repatriation of all previously untaxed unremitted earnings of controlled foreign corporations of $24 million, as well as the permanent write down of various tax attributes and other net deferred tax assets of $37 million for the reduction of the statutory corporate tax rate from 35% to 21%. Excluding the write down of tax attributes of non-GAAP adjustments, the estimated effect of tax reform on non-GAAP operating income was $35 million. (Please see “Explanation of Non-GAAP Financial Measures” at the end of this press release).


Fourth Quarter Results

GAAP Financial Information

Net income for fourth quarter 2017 was $52 million, compared with net income of $197 million for the three-month period ended December 31, 2016 (fourth quarter 2016). The decrease was primarily attributable to lower fair value gains, lower net earned premiums due mainly to lower refundings and terminations, the provisional tax expense related to the enactment of the Tax Act, offset in part, by lower loss and loss adjustment expenses (LAE).

Loss and LAE were $34 million in fourth quarter 2017, compared with $112 million in fourth quarter 2016. The expense in fourth quarter 2017 was due mainly to the increase in loss reserves on Puerto Rico exposures, partially offset by a gain on the settlement of a breach of representations and warranties (R&W) claim. The expense in fourth quarter 2016 was primarily related to an increase in Puerto Rico loss reserves and a reduction in excess spread on certain first-lien United States (U.S.) residential mortgage-backed securities (RMBS) exposures, which were partially offset by a benefit due to an increase in discount rates.

Fair value gains on credit derivatives were $5 million in fourth quarter 2017, compared with $74 million in fourth quarter 2016. Fourth quarter 2017 and 2016 fair value gains were generated primarily by the run-off of credit derivative par and price improvements on the underlying collateral, while fourth quarter 2016 also included a gain resulting from the termination of several credit derivative transactions. Except for credit impairment, the fair value adjustments on credit derivatives in the insured portfolio are non-economic adjustments that reverse to zero over the remaining term of that portfolio. Fair value gains on financial guaranty variable interest entities (FG VIEs) and committed capital securities (CCS) were also lower in fourth quarter 2017 compared with fourth quarter 2016.



3


Consolidated Statements of Operations (unaudited)
(in millions)
 
Quarter Ended
 
December 31,
 
2017
 
2016
Revenues:
 
 
 
Net earned premiums
$
178

 
$
236

Net investment income
96

 
117

Net realized investment gains (losses)
(14
)
 
(24
)
Net change in fair value of credit derivatives:
 
 
 
Realized gains (losses) and other settlements
(29
)
 
(18
)
Net unrealized gains (losses)
34

 
92

Net change in fair value of credit derivatives
5

 
74

Fair value gains (losses) on CCS
2

 
50

Fair value gains (losses) on FG VIEs
5

 
27

Other income (loss)
9

 
(10
)
Total revenues
281

 
470

 
 
 
 
Expenses:
 
 
 
Loss and LAE
34

 
112

Amortization of deferred acquisition costs
6

 
5

Interest expense
24

 
25

Other operating expenses
61

 
57

Total expenses
125

 
199

 
 
 
 
Income (loss) before income taxes
156

 
271

Provision (benefit) for income taxes
104

 
74

Net income (loss)
$
52

 
$
197



Economic Loss Development

The economic development in fourth quarter 2017 was $15 million. The development was primarily related to Puerto Rico exposures, partially offset by a $105 million benefit attributable to an R&W settlement. The economic loss development attributable to the change in discount rates was a benefit of $3 million for fourth quarter 2017.


4


Roll Forward of Net Expected Loss to be Paid (1)
(in millions)
 
 
Net Expected Loss to be Paid (Recovered) as of September 30, 2017
 
Economic Loss Development/ (Benefit)
 
Losses (Paid)/ Recovered
 
Net Expected Loss to be Paid (Recovered) as of December 31, 2017
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Public finance
 
$
1,093

 
$
122

 
$
(12
)
 
$
1,203

U.S. RMBS
 
176

 
(111
)
 
8

 
73

Other structured finance
 
23

 
4

 

 
27

Total
 
$
1,292

 
$
15

 
$
(4
)
 
$
1,303

________________________________________________
(1)
Economic loss development represents the change in net expected loss to be paid attributable to the effects of changes in assumptions based on observed market trends, changes in discount rates, accretion of discount and the economic effects of loss mitigation efforts. Economic loss development is the principal measure that the Company uses to evaluate the loss experience in its insured portfolio. Expected loss to be paid includes all transactions insured by the Company, whether written in insurance or credit derivative form, regardless of the accounting model prescribed under accounting principles generally accepted in the United States of America (GAAP).


New Business Production

New Business Production
(in millions)
 
Quarter Ended December 31,
 
2017
 
2016
 
GWP
 
PVP(1)
 
Gross Par Written
 
GWP
 
PVP(1)
 
Gross Par Written
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Public finance - U.S.
$
58

 
$
59

 
$
4,367

 
$
70

 
$
72

 
$
5,465

Public finance - non-U.S.
13

 
8

 
116

 
9

 
9

 
107

Structured finance - U.S.
(4
)
 
7

 
246

 
4

 
3

 
47

Structured finance - non-U.S.
5

 
3

 
47

 
0

 
1

 
24

Total
$
72

 
$
77

 
$
4,776

 
$
83

 
$
85

 
$
5,643

________________________________________________
(1)
Please see “Explanation of Non-GAAP Financial Measures” at the end of this press release.


GWP include amounts collected upfront on all new business written, the present value of future premiums on new financial guaranty business written (discounted at risk free rates), the effects of changes in the estimated lives of transactions in the inforce book of financial guaranty business, and the current installments of non-financial guaranty new business. In fourth quarter 2017, U.S. public finance GWP decreased to $58 million from $70 million in fourth quarter 2016, due primarily to a decrease in new business production.

U.S. public finance PVP decreased in fourth quarter 2017 compared with fourth quarter 2016 due to lower par written in the secondary market. PVP written in the primary market increased 46% compared with fourth quarter 2016 due in part to several large transactions, with higher premium rates. Assured Guaranty once again guaranteed the majority of insured par issued.


5


Outside the U.S., the Company generated $8 million of international public finance PVP and $3 million of international structured finance in fourth quarter 2017. The transactions written in fourth quarter 2017 include secondary market guarantees on regulated utilities and reinsurance on aircraft residual value insurance transactions.

The average rating on all new business production was A- in both fourth quarter 2017 and 2016.

Other Non-GAAP Financial Measures

Non-GAAP operating income was $91 million in fourth quarter 2017, compared with $139 million in fourth quarter 2016. Non-GAAP operating income decreased in fourth quarter 2017 compared with fourth quarter 2016 due mainly to lower net earned premiums and the provisional tax expense related to the enactment of the Tax Act, offset in part by lower operating loss expense.






6


Year-to-Date Results

GAAP Financial Information

Net income was $730 million for FY 2017, compared with $881 million for the year ended December 31, 2016 (FY 2016). Net income in both FY 2017 and FY 2016 had significant gains attributable to our strategic initiatives. FY 2017 included pretax commutation gains of $328 million related to the reassumption of previously ceded contracts, a pretax gain of $58 million related to the acquisition of MBIA UK Insurance Limited (MBIA UK) (MBIA UK Acquisition), and a pretax gain of $151 million related to litigation and R&W settlements. FY 2016 included a pretax gain of $259 million related to the acquisition of CIFG Holding Inc. (CIFG Acquisition) and a pretax gain of $89 million related to a loss mitigation transaction. Excluding these items, net income decreased in FY 2017 compared with FY 2016 due mainly to higher loss and LAE, lower net earned premiums from refundings and terminations, and the provisional tax expense related to the Tax Act.

Loss and LAE expense was $388 million in FY 2017, compared with $295 million in FY 2016. The expense in FY 2017 mainly includes an increase in loss reserves on Puerto Rico, offset in part by benefits attributable to litigation and R&W settlements. FY 2016 loss and LAE expense consisted primarily of an increase in loss reserves on certain Puerto Rico exposures.


7


Consolidated Statements of Operations (unaudited)
(in millions)
 
Year Ended
 
December 31,
 
2017
 
2016
Revenues:
 
 
 
Net earned premiums
$
690

 
$
864

Net investment income
418

 
408

Net realized investment gains (losses)
40

 
(29
)
Net change in fair value of credit derivatives:
 
 
 
Realized gains (losses) and other settlements
(10
)
 
29

Net unrealized gains (losses)
121

 
69

Net change in fair value of credit derivatives
111

 
98

Fair value gains (losses) on CCS
(2
)
 
0

Fair value gains (losses) on FG VIEs
30

 
38

Bargain purchase gain and settlement of pre-existing relationships, net
58

 
259

Other income (loss)
394

 
39

Total revenues
1,739

 
1,677

 
 
 
 
Expenses:
 
 
 
Loss and LAE
388

 
295

Amortization of deferred acquisition costs
19

 
18

Interest expense
97

 
102

Other operating expenses
244

 
245

Total expenses
748

 
660

 
 
 
 
Income (loss) before income taxes
991

 
1,017

Provision (benefit) for income taxes
261

 
136

Net income (loss)
$
730

 
$
881




8


Economic Loss Development

The economic loss development for FY 2017 was $313 million, primarily related to the Company’s Puerto Rico exposure, partially offset by benefits recognized as a result of loss mitigation strategies including benefits attributable to litigation and R&W settlements.

Roll Forward of Net Expected Loss to be Paid (1)
(in millions)
 
 
Net Expected Loss to be Paid (Recovered) as of December 31, 2016
 
Net Expected Loss to be Paid (Recovered) on MBIA UK
 as of January 10, 2017
 
Economic Loss
Development/
(Benefit)
 
Losses
(Paid)/ Recovered
 
Net Expected Loss to be Paid (Recovered) as of December 31, 2017
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Public finance
 
$
904

 
$
13

 
$
549

 
$
(263
)
 
$
1,203

U.S. RMBS
 
206

 

 
(181
)
 
48

 
73

Other structured finance
 
88

 
8

 
(55
)
 
(14
)
 
27

Total
 
$
1,198

 
$
21

 
$
313

 
$
(229
)
 
$
1,303

________________________________________________
(1)
Economic loss development represents the change in net expected loss to be paid attributable to the effects of changes in assumptions based on observed market trends, changes in discount rates, accretion of discount and the economic effects of loss mitigation efforts. Economic loss development is the principal measure that the Company uses to evaluate the loss experience in its insured portfolio. Expected loss to be paid includes all transactions insured by the Company, whether written in insurance or credit derivative form, regardless of the accounting model prescribed under GAAP.


New Business Production

New Business Production
(in millions)
 
Year Ended December 31,
 
2017
 
2016
 
GWP
 
PVP(1)
 
Gross Par Written
 
GWP
 
PVP(1)
 
Gross Par Written
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Public finance - U.S.
$
190

 
$
196

 
$
15,957

 
$
142

 
$
161

 
$
16,039

Public finance - non - U.S.
105

 
66

 
1,376

 
15

 
25

 
677

Structured finance - U.S.
(1
)
 
12

 
489

 
(1
)
 
27

 
1,114

Structured finance - non-U.S.
13

 
15

 
202

 
(2
)
 
1

 
24

Total
$
307

 
$
289

 
$
18,024

 
$
154

 
$
214

 
$
17,854

________________________________________________
(1)
Please see “Explanation of Non-GAAP Financial Measures” at the end of this press release.


In FY 2017, GWP increased to $307 million from $154 million in FY 2016, due to increased new financial guaranty business production in U.S. public finance and international infrastructure markets.


9


U.S. public finance PVP increased in FY 2017 compared with the comparable prior-year period due mainly to a higher number of large transactions and a more diverse book of underlying credits. The Company's market share, based on par, rose to 58.5% in FY 2017 from 56.2% in FY 2016. Assured Guaranty once again guaranteed the majority of insured par issued while maintaining an A- average rating on new business written.

Outside the U.S., the Company generated $66 million of public finance PVP in FY 2017, compared with $25 million in FY 2016. In 2017 this included several university housing and regulated utilities transactions, a senior liquidity guarantee as part of a European infrastructure refinancing and a project finance infrastructure/public-private-partnership healthcare transaction. Non-U.S. PVP was strong in both the primary and secondary markets in 2017.

In addition, the Company generated $15 million of non-U.S. structured finance PVP in FY 2017 by providing reinsurance of aircraft residual value policies and triple-X life reinsurance polices.

Other Non-GAAP Financial Measures

Non-GAAP operating income for FY 2017 was $661 million, compared with non-GAAP operating income for FY 2016 of $895 million. Similar to net income results, non-GAAP operating income in FY 2017 included pretax commutation gains of $328 million, a pretax gain of $58 million related to the MBIA UK Acquisition and a pretax gain of $151 million related to litigation and R&W settlements. FY 2016 non-GAAP operating income included a pretax gain of $259 million related to the CIFG Acquisition and a pretax gain of $89 million related to a loss mitigation transaction. Excluding these gains, non-GAAP operating income decreased in FY 2017 compared with FY 2016 due mainly to higher loss and LAE, lower net earned premiums and the provisional tax expense related to the enactment of the Tax Act.

On a per-share basis, shareholders' equity, non-GAAP operating shareholders' equity and non-GAAP adjusted book value increased due to the benefit of the acquisitions and commutations over the past several years and the related recurring income, favorable litigation outcomes and R&W settlements, as well as the accretive effect of the share repurchase program that has been in effect since January of 2013.

Common Share Repurchases

Summary of Share Repurchases
(in millions, except per share amounts)
 
Amount
 
Number of Shares
 
Average Price Per Share
 
 
 
 
 
 
2017 (January 1 - March 31)
$
216

 
5.43

 
$
39.83

2017 (April 1 - June 30)
135

 
3.46

 
39.05

2017 (July 1 - September 30)
80

 
1.85

 
43.29

2017 (October 1 - December 31)
70

 
1.93

 
36.18

2017
501

 
12.67

 
39.57

 
 
 
 
 
 
2018 (January 1 - February 22)
$
43

 
1.23

 
$
34.90



10


From 2013 through February 22, 2018, the Company repurchased 82.5 million common shares at an average price of $27.37, representing approximately 43% of the total shares outstanding at the beginning of the repurchase program in 2013. These repurchases can be made from time to time in the open market or in privately negotiated transactions.

As in the past, the Company's execution of its capital management strategy is contingent upon its available free cash and the capital position of the parent company, market conditions, the maintenance of its strong financial strength ratings and other factors. The repurchase program may be modified, extended or terminated by the Board of Directors at any time. It does not have an expiration date.


Insurance Company Subsidiaries’ Share Repurchases

In 2017, the respective regulators of Assured Guaranty Corp. (AGC) and Assured Guaranty Municipal Corp. (AGM) approved transfers of approximately $200 million and $101 million, respectively,  to the U.S. holding companies in the form of share repurchases.  AGM transferred $101 million to Assured Guaranty Municipal Holdings Inc. in 2017, and AGC transferred $200 million to Assured Guaranty US Holdings Inc. in January 2018.


11


Consolidated Balance Sheets (unaudited)
(in millions)
 
As of
 
December 31, 2017
 
December 31, 2016
Assets
 
 
 
Investment portfolio:
 
 
 
Fixed maturity securities, available-for-sale, at fair value
$
10,674

 
$
10,233

Short-term investments, at fair value
627

 
590

Other invested assets
94

 
162

Total investment portfolio
11,395

 
10,985

 
 
 
 
Cash
144

 
118

Premiums receivable, net of commissions payable
915

 
576

Ceded unearned premium reserve
119

 
206

Deferred acquisition costs
101

 
106

Reinsurance recoverable on unpaid losses
44

 
80

Salvage and subrogation recoverable
572

 
365

Credit derivative assets
2

 
13

Deferred tax asset, net
98

 
497

Current income tax receivable
21

 
12

FG VIE assets, at fair value
700

 
876

Other assets
322

 
317

Total assets
$
14,433

 
$
14,151

 
 
 
 
Liabilities and shareholders' equity
 
 
 
Liabilities
 
 
 
Unearned premium reserve
$
3,475

 
$
3,511

Loss and LAE reserve
1,444

 
1,127

Reinsurance balances payable, net
61

 
64

Long-term debt
1,292

 
1,306

Credit derivative liabilities
271

 
402

FG VIE liabilities with recourse, at fair value
627

 
807

FG VIE liabilities without recourse, at fair value
130

 
151

Other liabilities
294

 
279

Total liabilities
7,594

 
7,647

 
 
 
 
Shareholders' equity
 
 
 
Common stock
1

 
1

Additional paid-in capital
573

 
1,060

Retained earnings
5,892

 
5,289

Accumulated other comprehensive income (AOCI)
372

 
149

Deferred equity compensation
1

 
5

Total shareholders' equity
6,839

 
6,504

Total liabilities and shareholders' equity
$
14,433

 
$
14,151


12


Explanation of Non-GAAP Financial Measures

To reflect the key financial measures that management analyzes in evaluating the Company’s operations and progress towards long-term goals, the Company discloses both financial measures determined in accordance with GAAP and financial measures not determined in accordance with GAAP (non-GAAP financial measures).

Financial measures identified as non-GAAP should not be considered substitutes for GAAP financial measures. The primary limitation of non-GAAP financial measures is the potential lack of comparability to financial measures of other companies, whose definitions of non-GAAP financial measures may differ from those of the Company.

By disclosing non-GAAP financial measures, the Company gives investors, analysts and financial news reporters access to information that management and the Board of Directors review internally. The Company believes its presentation of non-GAAP financial measures, along with the effect of FG VIE consolidation, provides information that is necessary for analysts to calculate their estimates of Assured Guaranty’s financial results in their research reports on Assured Guaranty and for investors, analysts and the financial news media to evaluate Assured Guaranty’s financial results.

GAAP requires the Company to consolidate certain VIEs that have issued debt obligations insured by the Company. However, the Company does not own such VIEs and its exposure is limited to its obligation under its financial guaranty insurance contract. Management and the Board of Directors use non-GAAP financial measures adjusted to remove FG VIE consolidation (which the Company refers to as its core financial measures), as well as GAAP financial measures and other factors, to evaluate the Company’s results of operations, financial condition and progress towards long-term goals. The Company uses these core financial measures in its decision making process and in its calculation of certain components of management compensation. Wherever possible, the Company has separately disclosed the effect of FG VIE consolidation.

Many investors, analysts and financial news reporters use non-GAAP operating shareholders’ equity, adjusted to remove the effect of FG VIE consolidation, as the principal financial measure for valuing AGL’s current share price or projected share price and also as the basis of their decision to recommend, buy or sell AGL’s common shares. Many of the Company’s fixed income investors also use this measure to evaluate the Company’s capital adequacy.
 
Many investors, analysts and financial news reporters also use non-GAAP adjusted book value, adjusted to remove the effect of FG VIE consolidation, to evaluate AGL’s share price and as the basis of their decision to recommend, buy or sell the AGL common shares. Non-GAAP operating income adjusted for the effect of FG VIE consolidation enables investors and analysts to evaluate the Company’s financial results in comparison with the consensus analyst estimates distributed publicly by financial databases.
 
The core financial measures that the Company uses to help determine compensation are: (1) non-GAAP operating income, adjusted to remove the effect of FG VIE consolidation, (2) non-GAAP operating shareholders' equity, adjusted to remove the effect of FG VIE consolidation, (3) growth in non-GAAP adjusted book value per share, adjusted to remove the effect of FG VIE consolidation, and (4) PVP.
 

13


The following paragraphs and tables define each non-GAAP financial measure disclosed by the Company and describe why it is useful. A reconciliation of the non-GAAP financial measure and the most directly comparable GAAP financial measure is presented below.

Non-GAAP Operating Income

Management believes that non-GAAP operating income is a useful measure because it clarifies the understanding of the underwriting results and financial condition of the Company and presents the results of operations of the Company excluding the fair value adjustments on credit derivatives and CCS that are not expected to result in economic gain or loss, as well as other adjustments described below. Management adjusts non-GAAP operating income further by removing FG VIE consolidation to arrive at its core operating income measure. Non-GAAP operating income is defined as net income (loss) attributable to AGL, as reported under GAAP, adjusted for the following:

1)
Elimination of realized gains (losses) on the Company’s investments, except for gains and losses on securities classified as trading. The timing of realized gains and losses, which depends largely on market credit cycles, can vary considerably across periods. The timing of sales is largely subject to the Company’s discretion and influenced by market opportunities, as well as the Company’s tax and capital profile.

2)
Elimination of non-credit-impairment unrealized fair value gains (losses) on credit derivatives, which is the amount of unrealized fair value gains (losses) in excess of the present value of the expected estimated economic credit losses, and non-economic payments. Such fair value adjustments are heavily affected by, and in part fluctuate with, changes in market interest rates, the Company's credit spreads, and other market factors and are not expected to result in an economic gain or loss.
 
3)
Elimination of fair value gains (losses) on the Company’s CCS. Such amounts are affected by changes in market interest rates, the Company's credit spreads, price indications on the Company's publicly traded debt, and other market factors and are not expected to result in an economic gain or loss.
 
4)
Elimination of foreign exchange gains (losses) on remeasurement of net premium receivables and loss and LAE reserves. Long-dated receivables and loss and LAE reserves represent the present value of future contractual or expected cash flows. Therefore, the current period’s foreign exchange remeasurement gains (losses) are not necessarily indicative of the total foreign exchange gains (losses) that the Company will ultimately recognize.
 
5)
Elimination of the tax effects related to the above adjustments, which are determined by applying the statutory tax rate in each of the jurisdictions that generate these adjustments.


14


Summary Reconciliation of
GAAP Net Income to Non-GAAP Operating Income (1)
(in millions)
 
Quarter Ended
 
Year Ended
 
December 31,
 
December 31,
 
2017
 
2016
 
2017
 
2016
Net income (loss)
$
52

 
$
197

 
$
730

 
$
881

Less pre-tax adjustments:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Realized gains (losses) on investments
(14
)
 
(24
)
 
40

 
(30
)
Non-credit impairment unrealized fair value gains (losses) on credit derivatives
(17
)
 
68

 
43

 
36

Fair value gains (losses) on CCS
2

 
50

 
(2
)
 
0

Foreign exchange gains (losses) on remeasurement of premiums receivable and loss and LAE reserves
8

 
(12
)
 
57

 
(33
)
Total pre-tax adjustments
(21
)
 
82

 
138

 
(27
)
Less tax effect on pre-tax adjustments
(18
)
 
(24
)
 
(69
)
 
13

Non-GAAP operating income
$
91

 
$
139

 
$
661

 
$
895

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Gain (loss) related to FG VIE consolidation (net of tax provision of $1, $9, $6 and $7) included in non-GAAP operating income
$
2

 
$
16

 
$
11

 
$
12

________________________________________________
(1)
The non-GAAP financial measures presented in the table above should not be considered a substitute for financial results and measures determined or calculated in accordance with GAAP.


15


Non-GAAP Operating Income Adjustments and
Effect of FG VIE Consolidation
(in millions)
 
 
Quarter Ended
December 31, 2017
 
Quarter Ended
December 31, 2016
 
 
Non-GAAP Operating Income Adjustments (1)
 
Effect of FG VIE Consolidation (2)
 
Non-GAAP Operating Income Adjustments (1)
 
Effect of FG VIE Consolidation (2)
Adjustments to revenues:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net earned premiums
 
$

 
$
(3
)
 
$

 
$
(4
)
Net investment income
 

 
(1
)
 

 
(1
)
Net realized investment gains (losses)
 
(14
)
 

 
(24
)
 

Net change in fair value of credit derivatives
 
1

 

 
64

 

Fair value gains (losses) on CCS
 
2

 

 
50

 

Fair value gains (losses) on FG VIEs
 

 
5

 

 
27

Other income (loss)
 
8

 
0

 
(13
)
 
0

Total revenue adjustments
 
(3
)
 
1

 
77

 
22

Adjustments to expenses:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Loss expense
 
18

 
(2
)
 
(5
)
 
(3
)
Total expense adjustments
 
18

 
(2
)
 
(5
)
 
(3
)
Pre-tax adjustments
 
(21
)
 
3

 
82

 
25

Tax effect of adjustments
 
18

(3)
1

 
24

 
9

After-tax adjustments
 
$
(39
)
 
$
2

 
$
58

 
$
16

________________________________________________
(1)
The "Non-GAAP Operating Income Adjustments" column represents the amounts recorded in the consolidated statements of operations that the Company removes to arrive at non-GAAP operating income.

(2)
The "Effect of FG VIE Consolidation" column represents the amounts included in the consolidated statements of operations and non-GAAP operating income that the Company removes to arrive at the core financial measures that management uses in certain of its compensation calculations and its decision making process. 

(3)
Fourth quarter 2017 includes $26 million adjustment to tax expense related to the estimated effect of tax reform.

16


Non-GAAP Operating Income Adjustments and
Effect of FG VIE Consolidation
(in millions)
 
 
Year Ended
December 31, 2017
 
Year Ended
December 31, 2016
 
 
Non-GAAP Operating Income Adjustments (1)
 
Effect of FG VIE Consolidation (2)
 
Non-GAAP Operating Income Adjustments (1)
 
Effect of FG VIE Consolidation (2)
Adjustments to revenues:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net earned premiums
 
$

 
$
(15
)
 
$

 
$
(16
)
Net investment income
 

 
(5
)
 
8

 
(10
)
Net realized investment gains (losses)
 
40

 

 
(29
)
 

Net change in fair value of credit derivatives
 
86

 

 
49

 

Fair value gains (losses) on CCS
 
(2
)
 

 
0

 

Fair value gains (losses) on FG VIEs
 

 
30

 

 
38

Other income (loss)
 
57

 
0

 
(34
)
 
0

Total revenue adjustments
 
181

 
10

 
(6
)
 
12

Adjustments to expenses:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Loss expense
 
43

 
(7
)
 
20

 
(7
)
Other operating expenses
 

 

 
1

 

Total expense adjustments
 
43

 
(7
)
 
21

 
(7
)
Pre-tax adjustments
 
138

 
17

 
(27
)
 
19

Tax effect of adjustments
 
69

(3)
6

 
(13
)
 
7

After-tax adjustments
 
$
69

 
$
11

 
$
(14
)
 
$
12

________________________________________________
(1)
The "Non-GAAP Operating Income Adjustments" column represents the amounts recorded in the consolidated statements of operations that the Company removes to arrive at non-GAAP operating income.

(2)
The "Effect of FG VIE Consolidation" column represents the amounts included in the consolidated statements of operations and non-GAAP operating income that the Company removes to arrive at the core financial measures that management uses in certain of its compensation calculations and its decision making process. 

(3)
FY 2017 includes $26 million adjustment to tax expense related to the estimated effect of tax reform.

Non-GAAP Operating Shareholders’ Equity and Non-GAAP Adjusted Book Value
 
Management believes that non-GAAP operating shareholders’ equity is a useful measure because it presents the equity of the Company excluding the fair value adjustments on investments, credit derivatives and CCS, that are not expected to result in economic gain or loss, along with other adjustments described below. Management adjusts non-GAAP operating shareholders’ equity further by removing FG VIE consolidation to arrive at its core operating shareholders' equity and core adjusted book value.

Non-GAAP operating shareholders’ equity is the basis of the calculation of non-GAAP adjusted book value (see below). Non-GAAP operating shareholders’ equity is defined as shareholders’ equity attributable to AGL, as reported under GAAP, adjusted for the following:

17



1)
Elimination of non-credit-impairment unrealized fair value gains (losses) on credit derivatives, which is the amount of unrealized fair value gains (losses) in excess of the present value of the expected estimated economic credit losses, and non-economic payments. Such fair value adjustments are heavily affected by, and in part fluctuate with, changes in market interest rates, credit spreads and other market factors and are not expected to result in an economic gain or loss.

 2)
Elimination of fair value gains (losses) on the Company’s CCS. Such amounts are affected by changes in market interest rates, the Company's credit spreads, price indications on the Company's publicly traded debt, and other market factors and are not expected to result in an economic gain or loss.
 
3)
Elimination of unrealized gains (losses) on the Company’s investments that are recorded as a component of AOCI (excluding foreign exchange remeasurement). The AOCI component of the fair value adjustment on the investment portfolio is not deemed economic because the Company generally holds these investments to maturity and therefore should not recognize an economic gain or loss.

 4) Elimination of the tax effects related to the above adjustments, which are determined by applying the statutory tax rate in each of the jurisdictions that generate these adjustments.
 
Management uses non-GAAP adjusted book value, adjusted for FG VIE consolidation, to measure the intrinsic value of the Company, excluding franchise value. Growth in non-GAAP adjusted book value per share, adjusted for FG VIE consolidation (core adjusted book value), is one of the key financial measures used in determining the amount of certain long-term compensation elements to management and employees and used by rating agencies and investors. Management believes that non-GAAP adjusted book value is a useful measure because it enables an evaluation of the Company’s in-force premiums and revenues net of expected losses. Non-GAAP adjusted book value is non-GAAP operating shareholders’ equity, as defined above, further adjusted for the following:
 
1)
Elimination of deferred acquisition costs, net. These amounts represent net deferred expenses that have already been paid or accrued and will be expensed in future accounting periods.
 
2)
Addition of the net present value of estimated net future revenue on non-financial guaranty contracts. See below.
 
3)
Addition of the deferred premium revenue on financial guaranty contracts in excess of expected loss to be expensed, net of reinsurance. This amount represents the expected future net earned premiums, net of expected losses to be expensed, which are not reflected in GAAP equity.

4) Elimination of the tax asset or liability related to the above adjustments, which are determined by applying the statutory tax rate in each of the jurisdictions that generate these adjustments.

The unearned premiums and revenues included in non-GAAP adjusted book value will be earned in future periods, but actual earnings may differ materially from the estimated amounts used in determining current non-GAAP adjusted book value due to changes in foreign exchange rates, prepayment speeds, terminations, credit defaults and other factors.


18


Reconciliation of GAAP Shareholders' Equity to
Non-GAAP Operating Shareholders' Equity (1) and Non-GAAP Adjusted Book Value (1)
(in millions, except per share amounts)
 
As of
 
December 31, 2017
 
December 31, 2016
 
 
 
 
Shareholders' equity
$
6,839

 
$
6,504

Less pre-tax adjustments:
 
 
 
Non-credit impairment unrealized fair value gains (losses) on credit derivatives
(146
)
 
(189
)
Fair value gains (losses) on CCS
60

 
62

Unrealized gain (loss) on investment portfolio excluding foreign exchange effect
487

 
316

Less taxes
(83
)
 
(71
)
Non-GAAP operating shareholders' equity
6,521

 
6,386

Pre-tax adjustments:
 
 
 
Less: Deferred acquisition costs
101

 
106

Plus: Net present value of estimated net future revenue
146

 
136

Plus: Net unearned premium reserve on financial guaranty contracts in excess of expected loss to be expensed
2,966

 
2,922

Plus taxes
(512
)
 
(832
)
Non-GAAP adjusted book value
$
9,020

 
$
8,506

 
 
 
 
Gain (loss) related to FG VIE consolidation included in non-GAAP operating shareholders' equity (net of tax (provision) benefit of $(2) and $4)
$
5

 
$
(7
)
Gain (loss) related to FG VIE consolidation included in non-GAAP adjusted book value (net of tax benefit of $3 and $12)
$
(14
)
 
$
(24
)
 
 
 
 
Shares outstanding at the end of the period
116.0

 
128.0

 
 
 
 
Per share:
 
 
 
Shareholders' equity
$
58.95

 
$
50.82

Non-GAAP operating shareholders' equity
56.20

 
49.89

Non-GAAP adjusted book value
77.74

 
66.46

________________________________________________
(1)
The non-GAAP financial measures presented in the table above should not be considered a substitute for financial results and measures determined or calculated in accordance with GAAP.


19


Net Present Value of Estimated Net Future Revenue

Management believes that this amount is a useful measure because it enables an evaluation of the value of future estimated revenue for non-financial guaranty insurance contracts. There is no corresponding GAAP financial measure. This amount represents the present value of estimated future revenue from the Company’s non-financial guaranty insurance contracts, net of reinsurance, ceding commissions and premium taxes, for contracts without expected economic losses, and is discounted at 6%. Estimated net future revenue may change from period to period due to changes in foreign exchange rates, prepayment speeds, terminations, credit defaults or other factors that affect par outstanding or the ultimate maturity of an obligation.

PVP or Present Value of New Business Production

Management believes that PVP is a useful measure because it enables the evaluation of the value of new business production for the Company by taking into account the value of estimated future installment premiums on all new contracts underwritten in a reporting period as well as premium supplements and additional installment premium on existing contracts as to which the issuer has the right to call the insured obligation but has not exercised such right, whether in insurance or credit derivative contract form, which management believes GAAP gross written premiums and the net credit derivative premiums received and receivable portion of net realized gains and other settlements on credit derivatives (Credit Derivative Realized Gains (Losses)) do not adequately measure. PVP in respect of contracts written in a specified period is defined as gross upfront and installment premiums received and the present value of gross estimated future installment premiums, discounted, in each case, at 6%. Under GAAP, financial guaranty installment premiums are discounted at a risk free rate. Additionally, under GAAP, management records future installment premiums on financial guaranty insurance contracts covering non-homogeneous pools of assets based on the contractual term of the transaction, whereas for PVP purposes, management records an estimate of the future installment premiums the Company expects to receive, which may be based upon a shorter period of time than the contractual term of the transaction. Actual future earned or written premiums and Credit Derivative Realized Gains (Losses) may differ from PVP due to factors including, but not limited to, changes in foreign exchange rates, prepayment speeds, terminations, credit defaults, or other factors that affect par outstanding or the ultimate maturity of an obligation.

Reconciliation of GWP to PVP(1)
(in millions)
 
 
Quarter Ended
 
 
December 31, 2017
 
 
Public Finance
 
Structured Finance
 
 
 
 
U.S.
 
Non - U.S.
 
U.S.
 
Non - U.S.
 
Total
GWP
 
$
58

 
$
13

 
$
(4
)
 
$
5

 
$
72

Less: Installment GWP and other GAAP adjustments(2)
 
(2
)
 
13

 
(4
)
 
2

 
9

Upfront GWP
 
60

 

 
0

 
3

 
63

Plus: Installment premium PVP
 
(1
)
 
8

 
7

 

 
14

PVP
 
$
59

 
$
8

 
$
7

 
$
3

 
$
77



20


 
 
Quarter Ended
 
 
December 31, 2016
 
 
Public Finance
 
Structured Finance
 
 
 
 
U.S.
 
Non - U.S.
 
U.S.
 
Non - U.S.
 
Total
GWP
 
$
70

 
$
9

 
$
4

 
$
0

 
$
83

Less: Installment GWP and other GAAP adjustments(2)
 
(2
)
 
9

 
1

 
0

 
8

Upfront GWP
 
72

 

 
3

 

 
75

Plus: Installment premium PVP
 

 
9

 
0

 
1

 
10

PVP
 
$
72

 
$
9

 
$
3

 
$
1

 
$
85


 
 
Year Ended
 
 
December 31, 2017
 
 
Public Finance
 
Structured Finance
 
 
 
 
U.S.
 
Non - U.S.
 
U.S.
 
Non - U.S.
 
Total
GWP
 
$
190

 
$
105

 
$
(1
)
 
$
13

 
$
307

Less: Installment GWP and other GAAP adjustments(2)
 
(3
)
 
103

 
(1
)
 
0

 
99

Upfront GWP
 
193

 
2

 
0

 
13

 
208

Plus: Installment premium PVP
 
3

 
64

 
12

 
2

 
81

PVP
 
$
196

 
$
66

 
$
12

 
$
15

 
$
289


 
 
Year Ended
 
 
December 31, 2016
 
 
Public Finance
 
Structured Finance
 
 
 
 
U.S.
 
Non - U.S.
 
U.S.
 
Non - U.S.
 
Total
GWP
 
$
142

 
$
15

 
$
(1
)
 
$
(2
)
 
$
154

Less: Installment GWP and other GAAP adjustments(2)
 
(19
)
 
15

 
(4
)
 
(2
)
 
(10
)
Upfront GWP
 
161

 

 
3

 

 
164

Plus: Installment premium PVP
 
0

 
25

 
24

 
1

 
50

PVP
 
$
161

 
$
25

 
$
27

 
$
1

 
$
214

________________________________
(1)
The non-GAAP financial measures presented in the table above should not be considered a substitute for financial results and measures determined or calculated in accordance with GAAP.

(2)
Includes present value of new business on installment policies, discounted at the prescribed GAAP discount rates, GWP adjustments on existing installment policies due to changes in assumptions, any cancellations of assumed reinsurance contracts, and other GAAP adjustments.

21


Conference Call and Webcast Information

The Company will host a conference call for investors at 8:00 a.m. Eastern Time (9:00 a.m. Atlantic Time) on Friday, February 23, 2018. The conference call will be available via live and archived webcast in the Investor Information section of the Company's website at AssuredGuaranty.com or by dialing 1-877-281-1545 (in the U.S.) or 1-412-902-6609 (International). A replay of the call will be made available through May 24, 2018. To listen to the replay, dial 1-877-344-7529 (in the U.S.) or 1-412-317-0088 (International), passcode 10116879. The replay will be available one hour after the conference call ends.

Please refer to Assured Guaranty's December 31, 2017 Financial Supplement, which is posted on the Company's website at assuredguaranty.com/investor-information/by-company/assured-guaranty-ltd, for more information on the Company's financial guaranty portfolio, investment portfolio and other items. The Company is also posting on the same page of its website:

“Public Finance Transactions in 4Q 2017,” which lists the U.S. public finance new issues insured by the Company in fourth quarter 2017, and

“Structured Finance Transactions at December 31, 2017,” which lists the Company's structured finance exposure as of that date.

In addition, the Company is posting at assuredguaranty.com/presentations the “December 31, 2017 Equity Investor Presentation.” Furthermore, the Company's separate-company subsidiary financial supplements and its Fixed Income Presentation for the current quarter will be posted on the Company's website when available. Those documents will be furnished to the Securities and Exchange Commission in a Current Report on Form 8-K.

# # #


Assured Guaranty Ltd. is a publicly traded (NYSE: AGO) Bermuda-based holding company. Its operating subsidiaries provide credit enhancement products to the U.S. and international public finance, infrastructure and structured finance markets. More information on Assured Guaranty Ltd. and its subsidiaries can be found at AssuredGuaranty.com.



22


Cautionary Statement Regarding Forward-Looking Statements

Any forward-looking statements made in this press release reflect the Company's current views with respect to future events and financial performance and are made pursuant to the safe harbor provisions of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Such statements involve risks and uncertainties that may cause actual results to differ materially from those set forth in these statements. For example, Assured Guaranty's calculations of non-GAAP adjusted book value, PVP, net present value of estimated future installment premiums in force and total estimated net future premium earnings and statements regarding its capital position and demand for its insurance and other forward-looking statements could be affected by reduction in the amount of available insurance opportunities and/or in the demand for Assured Guaranty's insurance; rating agency action, including a ratings downgrade, a change in outlook, the placement of ratings on watch for downgrade, or a change in rating criteria, at any time, of AGL or any of its subsidiaries, and/or of any securities AGL or any of its subsidiaries have issued, and/or of transactions that AGL’s subsidiaries have insured; developments in the world’s financial and capital markets that adversely affect obligors’ payment rates or Assured Guaranty’s loss experience; the possibility that budget or pension shortfalls or other factors will result in credit losses or impairments on obligations of state, territorial and local governments and their related authorities and public corporations that Assured Guaranty insures or reinsures; the failure of Assured Guaranty to realize loss recoveries that are assumed in its expected loss estimates; increased competition, including from new entrants into the financial guaranty industry; rating agency action on obligors, including sovereign debtors, resulting in a reduction in the value of securities in Assured Guaranty's investment portfolio and in collateral posted by and to Assured Guaranty; the inability of Assured Guaranty to access external sources of capital on acceptable terms; changes in the world’s credit markets, segments thereof, interest rates or general economic conditions; the impact of market volatility on the mark-to-market of Assured Guaranty’s contracts written in credit default swap form; changes in applicable accounting policies or practices; changes in applicable laws or regulations, including insurance, bankruptcy and tax laws, or other governmental actions; the impact of changes in the world’s economy and credit and currency markets and in applicable laws or regulations relating to the decision of the United Kingdom to exit the European Union; the possibility that acquisitions or alternative investments made by Assured Guaranty do not result in the benefits anticipated or subject Assured Guaranty to unanticipated consequences; deterioration in the financial condition of Assured Guaranty’s reinsurers, the amount and timing of reinsurance recoverables actually received and the risk that reinsurers may dispute amounts owed to Assured Guaranty under its reinsurance agreements; difficulties with the execution of Assured Guaranty’s business strategy; loss of key personnel; the effects of mergers, acquisitions and divestitures; natural or man-made catastrophes; other risk factors identified in AGL's filings with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission; other risks and uncertainties that have not been identified at this time; and management’s response to these factors. Readers are cautioned not to place undue reliance on these forward-looking statements. These forward-looking statements are made as of February 22, 2018, and Assured Guaranty undertakes no obligation to update publicly or review any forward-looking statement, whether as a result of new information, future developments or otherwise, except as required by law.


23


Contact Information

Robert Tucker
Senior Managing Director, Investor Relations and Corporate Communications
212-339-0861
rtucker@agltd.com

Ashweeta Durani
Vice President, Corporate Communications
212-408-6042
adurani@agltd.com






24
EX-99.2 3 agl4q17supplement.htm AGL FINANCIAL SUPPLEMENT Exhibit


agllogo.jpg

Assured Guaranty Ltd.
December 31, 2017
Financial Supplement

Table of Contents
 
 
Page
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 

This financial supplement should be read in conjunction with documents filed by Assured Guaranty Ltd. (AGL and, together with its subsidiaries, Assured Guaranty or the Company) with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), including its Annual Report on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2017.

Some amounts in this financial supplement may not add due to rounding.

Cautionary Statement Regarding Forward Looking Statements:

Any forward looking statements made in this supplement reflect the current views of Assured Guaranty with respect to future events and financial performance and are made pursuant to the safe harbor provisions of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Such statements involve risks and uncertainties that may cause actual results to differ materially from those set forth in these statements. Assured Guaranty's forward looking statements could be affected by many events. These events include (1) reduction in the amount of available insurance opportunities and/or in the demand for Assured Guaranty's insurance; (2) rating agency action, including a ratings downgrade, a change in outlook, the placement of ratings on watch for downgrade, or a change in rating criteria, at any time, of AGL or any of its subsidiaries, and/or of any securities AGL or any of its subsidiaries have issued, and/or of transactions that AGL’s subsidiaries have insured; (3) developments in the world’s financial and capital markets that adversely affect obligors’ payment rates or Assured Guaranty’s loss experience; (4) the possibility that budget or pension shortfalls or other factors will result in credit losses or impairments on obligations of state, territorial and local governments and their related authorities and public corporations that Assured Guaranty insures or reinsures; (5) the failure of Assured Guaranty to realize loss recoveries that are assumed in its expected loss estimates; (6) increased competition, including from new entrants into the financial guaranty industry; (7) rating agency action on obligors, including sovereign debtors, resulting in a reduction in the value of securities in Assured Guaranty’s investment portfolio and in collateral posted by and to Assured Guaranty; (8) the inability of Assured Guaranty to access external sources of capital on acceptable terms; (9) changes in the world’s credit markets, segments thereof, interest rates or general economic conditions; (10) the impact of market volatility on the mark-to-market of Assured Guaranty’s contracts written in credit default swap form; (11) changes in applicable accounting policies or practices; (12) changes in applicable laws or regulations, including insurance, bankruptcy and tax laws, or other governmental actions; (13) the impact of changes in the world’s economy and credit and currency markets and in applicable laws or regulations relating to the decision of the United Kingdom to exit the European Union; (14) the possibility that acquisitions or alternative investments made by Assured Guaranty do not result in the benefits anticipated or subject Assured Guaranty to unanticipated consequences;(15) deterioration in the financial condition of Assured Guaranty’s reinsurers, the amount and timing of reinsurance recoverables actually received and the risk that reinsurers may dispute amounts owed to Assured Guaranty under its reinsurance agreements; (16) difficulties with the execution of Assured Guaranty’s business strategy; (17) loss of key personnel; (18) the effects of mergers, acquisitions and divestitures; (19) natural or man-made catastrophes; (20) other risk factors identified in AGL's filings with the SEC; (21) other risks and uncertainties that have not been identified at this time and; (22) management’s response to these factors. Readers are cautioned not to place undue reliance on these forward looking statements, which speak only as of the dates on which they are made. Assured Guaranty undertakes no obligation to update publicly or review any forward looking statement, whether as a result of new information, future developments or otherwise, except as required by law.




Assured Guaranty Ltd.
Selected Financial Highlights (1 of 2)
(dollars in millions, except per share amounts)
 
 
Three Months Ended
 
Year Ended
 
 
December 31,
 
December 31,
 
 
2017
 
2016
 
2017
 
2016
Net income (loss)
 
$
52

 
$
197

 
$
730

 
$
881

Non-GAAP operating income(1)
 
91

 
139

 
661

 
895

Gain (loss) related to the effect of consolidating financial guaranty variable interest entities (FG VIE consolidation) (net of tax provision (benefit) of $1, $9, $6 and $7) included in non-GAAP operating income
 
2

 
16

 
11

 
12

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income (loss) per diluted share
 
$
0.44

 
$
1.49

 
$
5.96

 
$
6.56

Non-GAAP operating income per diluted share(1)
 
0.77

 
1.05

 
5.41

 
6.68

Gain (loss) related to FG VIE consolidation included in non-GAAP operating income per diluted share
 
0.02

 
0.12

 
0.10

 
0.10

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Weighted average shares outstanding
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Basic shares outstanding
 
117.1

 
130.0

 
120.6

 
133.0

Diluted shares outstanding (1)
 
118.9

 
131.7

 
122.3

 
134.1

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Effective tax rate on net income
 
66.6
 %
 
27.6
%
 
26.3
%
 
13.4
%
Effective tax rate on non-GAAP operating income (3)
 
48.4
 %
 
26.6
%
 
22.5
%
 
14.3
%
Effect of FG VIE consolidation included in effective tax rate on non-GAAP operating income
 
(0.5
)%
 
1.3
%
 
0.2
%
 
0.4
%
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Return on equity (ROE) calculations (4):
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
GAAP ROE
 
3.0
 %
 
12.0
%
 
10.9
%
 
14.0
%
Non-GAAP Operating ROE (1)
 
5.6
 %
 
8.7
%
 
10.2
%
 
14.5
%
Effect of FG VIE consolidation on non-GAAP operating ROE
 
0.2
 %
 
1.1
%
 
0.1
%
 
0.2
%
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
New business:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Gross written premiums (GWP)
 
$
72

 
$
83

 
$
307

 
$
154

Present value of new business production (PVP) (1)   
 
77

 
85

 
289

 
214

Gross par written
 
4,776

 
5,643

 
18,024

 
17,854

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
As of
 
 
 
 
 
 
December 31,
 
December 31,
 
 
 
 
 
 
2017
 
2016
Shareholders' equity
 
 
 
 
 
$
6,839


$
6,504

Non-GAAP operating shareholders' equity (1)
 
 
 
 
 
6,521

 
6,386

Non-GAAP adjusted book value (1)
 
 
 
 
 
9,020

 
8,506

Gain (loss) related to FG VIE consolidation included in non-GAAP operating shareholders' equity
 
 
 
 
 
5

 
(7
)
Gain (loss) related to FG VIE consolidation included in non-GAAP adjusted book value
 
 
 
 
 
(14
)
 
(24
)
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Shares outstanding at the end of period
 
 
 
 
 
116.0

 
128.0

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Shareholders' equity per share
 
 
 
 
 
$
58.95

 
$
50.82

Non-GAAP operating shareholders' equity per share (1)
 
 
 
 
 
56.20

 
49.89

Non-GAAP adjusted book value per share (1)
 
 
 
 
 
77.74

 
66.46

Gain (loss) related to FG VIE consolidation included in non-GAAP operating shareholders' equity
 
 
 
 
 
0.03

 
(0.06
)
Gain (loss) related to FG VIE consolidation included in non-GAAP adjusted book value
 
 
 
 
 
(0.12
)

(0.18
)
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net debt service outstanding
 
 
 
 
 
$
401,118

 
$
437,535

Net par outstanding
 
 
 
 
 
264,952

 
296,318

Claims-paying resources (5)
 
 
 
 
 
11,752

 
11,701

1)
Please refer to the explanation of Non-GAAP Financial Measures set forth at the end of this Financial Supplement.
2)
Non-GAAP diluted shares outstanding were the same as diluted shares calculated in accordance with accounting principles generally accepted in the United States of America (GAAP) since both net income and non-GAAP operating income were positive for all periods.
3)
Represents the ratio of non-GAAP operating provision for income taxes to non-GAAP operating income before income taxes.
4)
Quarterly ROE calculations represent annualized returns. See page 7 for additional information on calculation.
5)
See page 9 for additional detail on claims-paying resources.

1



Assured Guaranty Ltd.
Selected Financial Highlights (2 of 2)
(dollars in millions, except per share amounts)
 
 
Three Months Ended
 
Year Ended
 
 
December 31,
 
December 31,
 
 
2017
 
2016
 
2017
 
2016
Effect of refundings and terminations on GAAP measures:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net earned premiums, pre-tax
 
$
82

 
$
137

 
$
286

 
$
469

Net change in fair value of credit derivatives, pre-tax
 
0

 
31

 
26

 
123

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income effect
 
53

 
117

 
212

 
452

Net income per diluted share
 
0.44

 
0.88

 
1.73

 
3.37

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Effect of refundings and terminations on non-GAAP measures:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Operating net earned premiums and credit derivative revenues(1), pre-tax
 
82

 
150

 
286

 
506

Non-GAAP operating income(1) effect
 
53

 
103

 
190

 
392

Non-GAAP operating income per diluted share (1)
 
0.44

 
0.78

 
1.55

 
2.92

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Gain (loss) related to FG VIE consolidation included in the effect of refundings and terminations above for the following measures:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net earned premiums, pre-tax
 

 

 

 
1

Net income and non-GAAP operating income, after-tax
 

 

 

 
1

Net income and non-GAAP operating income, after-tax, per diluted share
 

 

 

 
0.00

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 

1)
Consolidated statement of operations items mentioned in this Financial Supplement that are described as operating (i.e. operating net earned premiums) are non-GAAP measures and represent components of non-GAAP operating income. Please refer to the explanation of Non-GAAP Financial Measures set forth at the end of this Financial Supplement. The prior-year non-GAAP financial measures have been updated to reflect the revised calculation as discussed in the explanation of Non-GAAP Financial Measures at the end of this Financial Supplement.

2



Assured Guaranty Ltd.
Consolidated Balance Sheets (unaudited)
(dollars in millions)
 
 
As of:
 
 
December 31,
 
December 31,
 
 
2017
 
2016
Assets:
 
 
 
 
Investment portfolio:
 
 
 
 
Fixed maturity securities, available-for-sale, at fair value
 
$
10,674

 
$
10,233

Short-term investments, at fair value
 
627

 
590

Other invested assets
 
94

 
162

Total investment portfolio
 
11,395

 
10,985

 
 
 
 
 
Cash
 
144

 
118

Premiums receivable, net of commissions payable
 
915

 
576

Ceded unearned premium reserve
 
119

 
206

Deferred acquisition costs
 
101

 
106

Reinsurance recoverable on unpaid losses
 
44

 
80

Salvage and subrogation recoverable
 
572

 
365

Credit derivative assets
 
2

 
13

Deferred tax asset, net
 
98

 
497

Current income tax receivable
 
21

 
12

Financial guaranty variable interest entities (FG VIE) assets, at fair value
 
700

 
876

Other assets
 
322

 
317

Total assets
 
$
14,433

 
$
14,151

 
 
 
 
 
Liabilities and shareholders' equity:
 
 
 
 
Liabilities:
 
 
 
 
Unearned premium reserve
 
$
3,475

 
$
3,511

Loss and loss adjustment expense reserve
 
1,444

 
1,127

Reinsurance balances payable, net
 
61

 
64

Long-term debt
 
1,292

 
1,306

Credit derivative liabilities
 
271

 
402

FG VIE liabilities with recourse, at fair value
 
627

 
807

FG VIE liabilities without recourse, at fair value
 
130

 
151

Other liabilities
 
294

 
279

Total liabilities
 
7,594

 
7,647

 
 
 
 
 
Shareholders' equity:
 
 
 
 
Common stock
 
1

 
1

Additional paid-in capital
 
573

 
1,060

Retained earnings
 
5,892

 
5,289

Accumulated other comprehensive income (AOCI)
 
372

 
149

Deferred equity compensation
 
1

 
5

Total shareholders' equity
 
6,839

 
6,504

Total liabilities and shareholders' equity
 
$
14,433

 
$
14,151





3



Assured Guaranty Ltd.
Consolidated Statements of Operations (unaudited)
(dollars in millions, except per share amounts)

 
 
 
Three Months Ended
 
Year Ended
 
 
 
December 31,
 
December 31,
 
 
 
2017
 
2016
 
2017
 
2016
Revenues:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net earned premiums
 
$
178

 
$
236

 
$
690

 
$
864

 
Net investment income
 
96

 
117

 
418

 
408

 
Net realized investment gains (losses)
 
(14
)
 
(24
)
 
40

 
(29
)
 
Net change in fair value of credit derivatives:
 

 
 
 

 
 
 
 
 Realized gains (losses) and other settlements
 
(29
)
 
(18
)
 
(10
)
 
29

 
 
 Net unrealized gains (losses)
 
34

 
92

 
121

 
69

 
 
 
Net change in fair value of credit derivatives
 
5

 
74

 
111

 
98

 
Fair value gains (losses) on committed capital securities (CCS)
 
2

 
50

 
(2
)
 
0

 
Fair value gains (losses) on FG VIEs
 
5

 
27

 
30

 
38

 
Bargain purchase gain and settlement of pre-existing relationships
 

 

 
58

 
259

 
Other income (loss)
 
9

 
(10
)
 
394

 
39

 
 
Total revenues
 
281

 
470

 
1,739

 
1,677

Expenses:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Loss and loss adjustment expenses (LAE)
 
34

 
112

 
388

 
295

 
Amortization of deferred acquisition costs
 
6

 
5

 
19

 
18

 
Interest expense
 
24

 
25

 
97

 
102

 
Other operating expenses
 
61

 
57

 
244

 
245

 
 
Total expenses
 
125

 
199

 
748

 
660

Income (loss) before income taxes
 
156

 
271

 
991

 
1,017

 
Provision (benefit) for income taxes
 
104

 
74

 
261

 
136

Net income (loss)
 
$
52

 
$
197

 
$
730

 
$
881

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Earnings per share:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Basic
 
$
0.44

 
$
1.51

 
$
6.05

 
$
6.61

 
Diluted
 
$
0.44

 
$
1.49

 
$
5.96

 
$
6.56

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 


4



Assured Guaranty Ltd.
Non-GAAP Operating Income Adjustments and Effect of FG VIE Consolidation
(dollars in millions)

Non-GAAP Operating Income Adjustments and Effect of FG VIE Consolidation for the Three Months Ended December 31, 2017 and December 31, 2016
 
 
Three Months Ended
 
Three Months Ended
 
 
December 31, 2017
 
December 31, 2016
 
 
  Non-GAAP Operating Income Adjustments (1)
 
Effect of FG VIE Consolidation (2)
 
 Non-GAAP Operating Income Adjustments (1)
 
Effect of FG VIE Consolidation (2)
Adjustments to revenues:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net earned premiums
 
$

 
$
(3
)
 
$

 
$
(4
)
Net investment income
 

 
(1
)
 

 
(1
)
Net realized investment gains (losses)
 
(14
)
 

 
(24
)
 

Net change in fair value of credit derivatives
 
1

 

 
64

 

Fair value gains (losses) on CCS
 
2

 

 
50

 

Fair value gains (losses) on FG VIEs
 

 
5

 

 
27

Other income (loss)
 
8

 
0

 
(13
)
 
0

Total revenue adjustments
 
(3
)
 
1

 
77

 
22

Adjustments to expenses:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Loss expense
 
18

 
(2
)
 
(5
)
 
(3
)
Total expense adjustments
 
18

 
(2
)
 
(5
)
 
(3
)
Pre-tax adjustments
 
(21
)
 
3

 
82

 
25

Tax effect of adjustments
 
18

(3)
1

 
24

 
9

After-tax adjustments
 
$
(39
)
 
$
2

 
$
58

 
$
16


Non-GAAP Operating Income Adjustments and Effect of FG VIE Consolidation for the Year Ended December 31, 2017 and December 31, 2016
 
 
Year Ended
 
Year Ended
 
 
December 31, 2017
 
December 31, 2016
 
 
  Non-GAAP Operating Income Adjustments (1)
 
Effect of FG VIE Consolidation (2)
 
  Non-GAAP Operating Income Adjustments (1)
 
Effect of FG VIE Consolidation (2)
Adjustments to revenues:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net earned premiums
 
$

 
$
(15
)
 
$

 
$
(16
)
Net investment income
 

 
(5
)
 
8

 
(10
)
Net realized investment gains (losses)
 
40

 

 
(29
)
 

Net change in fair value of credit derivatives
 
86

 

 
49

 

Fair value gains (losses) on CCS
 
(2
)
 

 
0

 

Fair value gains (losses) on FG VIEs
 

 
30

 

 
38

Other income (loss)
 
57

 
0

 
(34
)
 
0

Total revenue adjustments
 
181

 
10

 
(6
)
 
12

Adjustments to expenses:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Loss expense
 
43

 
(7
)
 
20

 
(7
)
Other operating expenses
 

 

 
1

 

Total expense adjustments
 
43

 
(7
)
 
21

 
(7
)
Pre-tax adjustments
 
138

 
17

 
(27
)
 
19

Tax effect of adjustments
 
69

(3)
6

 
(13
)
 
7

After-tax adjustments
 
$
69

 
$
11

 
$
(14
)
 
$
12


1)
The "Non-GAAP Operating Income Adjustments" column represents the amounts recorded in the consolidated statements of operations that the Company removes to arrive at non-GAAP operating income. Please refer to the explanation of Non-GAAP Financial Measures set forth at the end of this Financial Supplement.

2)
The "Effect of FG VIE Consolidation" column represents the amounts included in the consolidated statements of operations and non-GAAP operating income that the Company removes to arrive at the core financial measures that management uses in certain of its compensation calculations and its decision making process. Please refer to the explanation of Non-GAAP Financial Measures set forth at the end of this Financial Supplement.

3)
Three months and year ended December 31, 2017 include $26 million adjustment to tax expense related to the estimated effect of tax reform under the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act.


5



Assured Guaranty Ltd.
Selected Financial Highlights
GAAP to Non-GAAP Reconciliations (1 of 3)
(dollars in millions, except per share amounts)

Non-GAAP operating income Reconciliation
 
Three Months Ended
 
Year Ended
 
 
December 31,
 
December 31,
 
 
2017
 
2016
 
2017
 
2016
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income (loss)
 
$
52

 
$
197

 
$
730

 
$
881

Less pre-tax adjustments:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Realized gains (losses) on investments
 
(14
)
 
(24
)
 
40

 
(30
)
Non-credit impairment unrealized fair value gains (losses) on credit derivatives
 
(17
)
 
68

 
43

 
36

Fair value gains (losses) on CCS
 
2

 
50

 
(2
)
 
0

Foreign exchange gains (losses) on remeasurement of premiums receivable and loss and LAE reserves
 
8

 
(12
)
 
57

 
(33
)
Total pre-tax adjustments
 
(21
)
 
82

 
138

 
(27
)
Less tax effect on pre-tax adjustments
 
(18
)
 
(24
)
 
(69
)
 
13

Non-GAAP operating income
 
$
91

 
$
139

 
$
661

 
$
895

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Gain (loss) related to FG VIE consolidation (net of tax provision (benefit) of $1, $9, $6 and $7) included in non-GAAP operating income
 
$
2

 
$
16

 
$
11

 
$
12

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Per diluted share:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income (loss)
 
$
0.44

 
$
1.49

 
$
5.96

 
$
6.56

Less pre-tax adjustments:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Realized gains (losses) on investments
 
(0.12
)
 
(0.18
)
 
0.33

 
(0.23
)
Non-credit impairment unrealized fair value gains (losses) on credit derivatives
 
(0.14
)
 
0.52

 
0.35

 
0.27

Fair value gains (losses) on CCS
 
0.01

 
0.38

 
(0.02
)
 
0.00

Foreign exchange gains (losses) on remeasurement of premiums receivable and loss and LAE reserves
 
0.07

 
(0.09
)
 
0.46

 
(0.25
)
Total pre-tax adjustments
 
(0.18
)
 
0.63

 
1.12

 
(0.21
)
Less tax effect on pre-tax adjustments
 
(0.15
)
 
(0.19
)
 
(0.57
)
 
0.09

Non-GAAP operating income
 
$
0.77

 
$
1.05

 
$
5.41

 
$
6.68

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Gain (loss) related to FG VIE consolidation included in non-GAAP operating income per diluted share
 
$
0.02

 
$
0.12

 
$
0.10

 
$
0.10

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 

Please refer to the explanation of Non-GAAP Financial Measures set forth at the end of this Financial Supplement.













6



Assured Guaranty Ltd.
Selected Financial Highlights
GAAP to Non-GAAP Reconciliations (2 of 3)
(dollars in millions)

ROE Reconciliation and Calculation
 
 
 
 
December 31,
 
September 30,
 
December 31,
 
September 30,
 
December 31,
 
 
2017
 
2017
 
2016
 
2016
 
2015
Shareholders' equity
 
$
6,839

 
$
6,878

 
$
6,504

 
$
6,640

 
$
6,063

Non-GAAP operating shareholders' equity
 
6,521

 
6,590

 
6,386

 
6,432

 
5,925

Gain (loss) related to FG VIE consolidation included in non-GAAP operating shareholders' equity
 
5

 
3

 
(7
)
 
(24
)
 
(21
)
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Three Months Ended
 
Year Ended
 
 
 
 
December 31,
 
December 31,
 
 
 
 
2017
 
2016
 
2017
 
2016
Net income (loss)
 
 
 
$
52

 
$
197

 
$
730

 
$
881

Non-GAAP operating income
 
 
 
91

 
139

 
661

 
895

Gain (loss) related to FG VIE consolidation included in non-GAAP operating income
 
 
 
2

 
16

 
11

 
12

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Average shareholders' equity
 
 
 
$
6,859

 
$
6,572

 
$
6,672

 
$
6,284

Average non-GAAP operating shareholders' equity
 
 
 
6,556

 
6,409

 
6,454

 
6,156

Gain (loss) related to FG VIE consolidation included in average non-GAAP operating shareholders' equity
 
 
 
4

 
(16
)
 
(1
)
 
(14
)
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
GAAP ROE (1)
 
 
 
3.0
%
 
12.0
%
 
10.9
%
 
14.0
%
Non-GAAP operating ROE (1)
 
 
 
5.6
%
 
8.7
%
 
10.2
%
 
14.5
%
Effect of FG VIE consolidation included in non-GAAP operating ROE
 
 
 
0.2
%
 
1.1
%
 
0.1
%
 
0.2
%
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 

1)
Quarterly ROE calculations represent annualized returns.

Please refer to the explanation of Non-GAAP Financial Measures set forth at the end of this Financial Supplement.



7



Assured Guaranty Ltd.
Selected Financial Highlights
GAAP to Non-GAAP Reconciliations (3 of 3)
(dollars in millions)


 
 
As of
 
 
December 31,
 
September 30,
 
December 31,
 
September 30,
 
December 31,
 
 
2017
 
2017
 
2016
 
2016
 
2015
Reconciliation of shareholders' equity to non-GAAP adjusted book value:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Shareholders' equity
 
$
6,839

 
$
6,878

 
$
6,504

 
$
6,640

 
$
6,063

Less pre-tax reconciling items:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Non-credit impairment unrealized fair value gains (losses) on credit derivatives
 
(146
)
 
(129
)
 
(189
)
 
(284
)
 
(241
)
Fair value gains (losses) on CCS
 
60

 
58

 
62

 
12

 
62

Unrealized gain (loss) on investment portfolio excluding foreign exchange effect
 
487

 
506

 
316

 
571

 
373

Less taxes
 
(83
)
 
(147
)
 
(71
)
 
(91
)
 
(56
)
Non-GAAP operating shareholders' equity (1)
 
6,521

 
6,590

 
6,386

 
6,432

 
5,925

Pre-tax reconciling items:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Less: Deferred acquisition costs
 
101

 
106

 
106

 
108

 
114

Plus: Net present value of estimated net future revenue
 
146

 
144

 
136

 
155

 
169

Plus: Net unearned premium reserve on financial guaranty contracts in excess of expected loss to be expensed
 
2,966

 
3,091

 
2,922

 
3,038

 
3,384

Plus taxes
 
(512
)
 
(899
)
 
(832
)
 
(868
)
 
(968
)
Non-GAAP adjusted book value (2)
 
$
9,020

 
$
8,820

 
$
8,506

 
$
8,649

 
$
8,396

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Gain (loss) related to FG VIE consolidation included in non-GAAP operating shareholders' equity (net of tax (provision) benefit of $(2), $(1), $4, $13 and $11)
 
5

 
3

 
(7
)
 
(24
)
 
(21
)
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Gain (loss) related to FG VIE consolidation included in non-GAAP adjusted book value (net of tax benefit of $3, $7, $12, $21 and $22)
 
(14
)
 
(13
)
 
(24
)
 
(40
)
 
(43
)

Please refer to the explanation of Non-GAAP Financial Measures set forth at the end of this Financial Supplement.

1)
The December 31, 2017 amount includes a charge of $114 million related to the estimated effect of tax reform.

2)
The December 31, 2017 amount includes a benefit of $239 million related to the estimated effect of tax reform.





8



Assured Guaranty Ltd.
Claims-Paying Resources
(dollars in millions)
 
 
As of December 31, 2017
 
 
Assured Guaranty Municipal Corp.
 
Assured Guaranty Corp.
 
Municipal Assurance Corp.
 
Assured Guaranty Re Ltd. (8)
 
Eliminations(3)
 
Consolidated
Claims-paying resources
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Policyholders' surplus
 
$
2,254

 
$
2,073

 
$
270

 
$
1,041

 
$
(427
)
 
$
5,211

Contingency reserve(1)
 
1,108

 
642

 
224

 

 
(224
)
 
1,750

Qualified statutory capital
 
3,362

 
2,715

 
494

 
1,041

 
(651
)
 
6,961

Unearned premium reserve(1)
 
1,657

 
354

 
248

 
663

 
(248
)
 
2,674

Loss and LAE reserves (1)
 
634

 
135

 
0

 
323

 
0

 
1,092

Total policyholders' surplus and reserves
 
5,653

 
3,204

 
742

 
2,027

 
(899
)
 
10,727

Present value of installment premium(1)
 
183

 
126

 
1

 
136

 
(1
)
 
445

CCS
 
200

 
200

 

 

 

 
400

Excess of loss reinsurance facility (2)
 
180

 
180

 
180

 

 
(360
)
 
180

Total claims-paying resources (including proportionate MAC ownership for AGM and AGC)
 
6,216

 
3,710

 
923

 
2,163

 
(1,260
)
 
11,752

Adjustment for MAC (4)
 
451

 
292

 

 

 
(743
)
 

Total claims-paying resources (excluding proportionate MAC ownership for AGM and AGC)
 
$
5,765

 
$
3,418

 
$
923

 
$
2,163

 
$
(517
)
 
$
11,752

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Statutory net par outstanding (5)                     
 
$
120,504

 
$
23,914

 
$
30,100

 
$
65,174

 
$
(689
)
 
$
239,003

Equity method adjustment (4)
 
18,271

 
11,829

 

 

 
(30,100
)
 

Adjusted statutory net par outstanding (1)
 
$
138,775

 
$
35,743

 
$
30,100

 
$
65,174

 
$
(30,789
)
 
$
239,003

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net debt service outstanding (5) 
 
$
191,884

 
$
36,018

 
$
44,323

 
$
102,187

 
$
(1,072
)
 
$
373,340

Equity method adjustment (4)
 
26,904

 
17,419

 

 

 
(44,323
)
 

Adjusted net debt service outstanding (1)
 
$
218,788

 
$
53,437

 
$
44,323

 
$
102,187

 
$
(45,395
)
 
$
373,340

Ratios:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Adjusted net par outstanding to qualified statutory capital
 
41:1
 
13:1
 
61:1
 
63:1
 

 
34:1
Capital ratio (6)
 
65:1
 
20:1
 
90:1
 
98:1
 

 
54:1
Financial resources ratio (7)
 
35:1
 
14:1
 
48:1
 
47:1
 

 
32:1
1)
The numbers shown for Assured Guaranty Municipal Corp. (AGM) and Assured Guaranty Corp. (AGC) have been adjusted to include, as applicable, (i) their 100% share of their respective European insurance subsidiaries and (ii) their indirect share of Municipal Assurance Corp. (MAC). AGM and AGC own 60.7% and 39.3%, respectively, of the outstanding stock of Municipal Assurance Holdings Inc., which owns 100% of the outstanding common stock of MAC. Amounts include financial guaranty insurance and credit derivatives.
2)
Represents the $180 million portion placed with an unaffiliated reinsurer of a $400 million aggregate excess-of-loss reinsurance facility for the benefit of AGC, AGM and MAC, which became effective January 1, 2018. The facility terminates on January 1, 2020, unless AGC, AGM and MAC choose to extend it.
3)
Eliminations are primarily for (i) intercompany surplus notes between AGM and AGC, and (ii) MAC amounts, whose proportionate share are included in AGM and AGC based on ownership percentages and (iii) eliminations related to the sale of European Subsidiaries from AGC to AGM. Net par and net debt service outstanding eliminations relate to second-to-pay policies under which an Assured Guaranty insurance subsidiary guarantees an obligation already insured by another Assured Guaranty insurance subsidiary, and net par related to intercompany cessions from AGM and AGC to MAC.
4)
Represents adjustments for AGM's and AGC's interest and indirect ownership of MAC.
5)
Net par outstanding and net debt service outstanding are presented on a statutory basis.
6)
The capital ratio is calculated by dividing adjusted net debt service outstanding by qualified statutory capital.
7)
The financial resources ratio is calculated by dividing adjusted net debt service outstanding by total claims-paying resources (including MAC adjustment for AGM and AGC).
8)
Assured Guaranty Re Ltd. (AG Re) numbers represent the Company's estimate of United States (U.S.) statutory accounting practices prescribed or permitted by insurance regulatory authorities, except for contingency reserves.

Please refer to the Glossary for an explanation of changes in the presentation of net debt service and net par outstanding.



9



Assured Guaranty Ltd.
New Business Production
(dollars in millions)

Reconciliation of GWP to PVP for the Three Months Ended December 31, 2017 and December 31, 2016

 
 
Three Months Ended
 
Three Months Ended
 
 
December 31, 2017
 
December 31, 2016
 
 
Public Finance
 
Structured Finance
 
 
 
Public Finance
 
Structured Finance
 
 
 
 
U.S.
 
Non - U.S.
 
U.S. 
 
Non - U.S.
 
Total
 
U.S.
 
Non - U.S.
 
U.S.
 
Non - U.S.
 
Total
Total GWP
 
$
58

 
$
13

 
$
(4
)
 
$
5

 
$
72

 
$
70

 
$
9

 
$
4

 
$
0

 
$
83

Less: Installment GWP and other GAAP adjustments(1)
 
(2
)
 
13

 
(4
)
 
2

 
9

 
(2
)
 
9

 
1

 
0

 
8

Upfront GWP
 
60

 

 
0

 
3

 
63

 
72

 

 
3

 

 
75

Plus: Installment premium PVP
 
(1
)
 
8

 
7

 

 
14

 

 
9

 
0

 
1

 
10

Total PVP
 
$
59

 
$
8

 
$
7

 
$
3

 
$
77

 
$
72

 
$
9

 
$
3

 
$
1

 
$
85

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Gross par written
 
$
4,367

 
$
116

 
$
246

 
$
47

 
$
4,776

 
$
5,465

 
$
107

 
$
47

 
$
24

 
$
5,643



Reconciliation of GWP to PVP for the Year Ended December 31, 2017 and December 31, 2016

 
 
Year Ended
 
Year Ended
 
 
December 31, 2017
 
December 31, 2016
 
 
Public Finance
 
Structured Finance
 
 
 
Public Finance
 
Structured Finance
 
 
 
 
U.S.
 
Non - U.S.
 
U.S. (2)
 
Non - U.S.
 
Total
 
U.S.
 
Non - U.S.
 
U.S.
 
Non - U.S.
 
Total
Total GWP
 
$
190

 
$
105

 
$
(1
)
 
$
13

 
$
307

 
$
142

 
$
15

 
$
(1
)
 
$
(2
)
 
$
154

Less: Installment GWP and other GAAP adjustments(1)
 
(3
)
 
103

 
(1
)
 
0

 
99

 
(19
)
 
15

 
(4
)
 
(2
)
 
(10
)
Upfront GWP
 
193

 
2

 
0

 
13

 
208

 
161

 

 
3

 

 
164

Plus: Installment premium PVP
 
3

 
64

 
12

 
2

 
81

 
0

 
25

 
24

 
1

 
50

Total PVP
 
$
196

 
$
66

 
$
12

 
$
15

 
$
289

 
$
161

 
$
25

 
$
27

 
$
1

 
$
214

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Gross par written
 
$
15,957

 
$
1,376

 
$
489

 
$
202

 
$
18,024

 
$
16,039

 
$
677

 
$
1,114

 
$
24

 
$
17,854


1)
Includes present value of new business on installment policies discounted at the prescribed GAAP discount rates, GWP adjustments on existing installment policies due to changes in assumptions, any cancellations of assumed reinsurance contracts, and other GAAP adjustments.


Please refer to the explanation of Non-GAAP Financial Measures set forth at the end of this Financial Supplement.








10



Assured Guaranty Ltd.
Gross Par Written
(dollars in millions)


Gross Par Written by Asset Type

 
 
Three Months Ended
 
Year Ended
 
 
December 31, 2017
 
December 31, 2017
 
 
Gross Par Written
 
Avg. Internal Rating
 
Gross Par Written
 
Avg. Internal Rating
Sector:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
U.S. public finance
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
General obligation
 
$
1,783

 
 A-
 
$
7,156

 
 A-
Tax backed
 
521

 
 A-
 
3,268

 
 A
Municipal utilities
 
1,046

 
 A-
 
2,256

 
 A-
Transportation
 
195

 
 A-
 
1,423

 
 BBB+
Infrastructure finance
 
378

 
 BBB-
 
723

 
 BBB+
Higher education
 
69

 
 A
 
624

 
 A
Healthcare
 
147

 
 BBB-
 
269

 
 BBB
Housing revenue
 
228

 
 BBB
 
228

 
 BBB
Other public finance
 

 
 
10

 
 A
Total U.S. public finance
 
4,367

 
 BBB+
 
15,957

 
 A-
Non-U.S. public finance:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Infrastructure finance
 

 
 
870

 
BBB+
Regulated utilities
 
116

 
BBB+
 
506

 
BBB+
Total non-U.S. public finance
 
116

 
BBB+
 
1,376

 
BBB+
Total public finance
 
$
4,483

 
BBB+
 
$
17,333

 
 A-
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
U.S. structured finance:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Insurance securitization
 
$
201

 
AA
 
$
444

 
AA
Structured credit
 
39

 
 BBB
 
39

 
 BBB
Consumer receivables
 
4

 
BBB+
 
4

 
BBB+
Other structured finance
 
2

 
 A-
 
2

 
 A-
Total U.S. structured finance
 
246

 
AA-
 
489

 
AA
Non-U.S. structured finance:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Commercial receivables
 
47

 
BBB+
 
202

 
BBB+
Total non-U.S. structured finance
 
47

 
BBB+
 
202

 
BBB+
Total structured finance
 
$
293

 
 A+
 
$
691

 
 A+
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Total gross par written
 
$
4,776

 
 A-
 
$
18,024

 
 A-


Please refer to the Glossary for a description of internal ratings and sectors.




11



Assured Guaranty Ltd.
New Business Production by Quarter
(dollars in millions)


 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Year Ended
 
 
1Q-16
 
2Q-16
 
3Q-16
 
4Q-16
 
1Q-17
 
2Q-17
 
3Q-17
 
4Q-17
 
2016
 
2017
PVP:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Public finance - U.S.
 
$
31

 
$
33

 
$
25

 
$
72

 
$
52

 
$
46

 
$
39

 
$
59

 
$
161

 
$
196

Public finance - non-U.S.
 
7

 
7

 
2

 
9

 
40

 
14

 
4

 
8

 
25

 
66

Structured finance - U.S.
 
0

 
1

 
23

 
3

 
5

 
0

 
0

 
7

 
27

 
12

Structured finance - non-U.S.
 

 

 

 
1

 
2

 
10

 

 
3

 
1

 
15

Total PVP
 
$
38

 
$
41

 
$
50

 
$
85

 
$
99

 
$
70

 
$
43

 
$
77

 
$
214

 
$
289

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Reconciliation of GWP to PVP:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Total GWP
 
$
19

 
$
36

 
$
16

 
$
83

 
$
111

 
$
79

 
$
45

 
$
72

 
$
154

 
$
307

Less: Installment GWP and other GAAP adjustments
 
(12
)
 
3

 
(9
)
 
8

 
55

 
25

 
10

 
9

 
(10
)
 
99

Upfront GWP
 
31

 
33

 
25

 
75

 
56

 
54

 
35

 
63

 
164

 
208

Plus: Installment premium PVP
 
7

 
8

 
25

 
10

 
43

 
16

 
8

 
14

 
50

 
81

Total PVP
 
$
38

 
$
41

 
$
50

 
$
85

 
$
99

 
$
70

 
$
43

 
$
77

 
$
214

 
$
289

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Gross par written:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Public finance - U.S.
 
$
2,749

 
$
4,366

 
$
3,459

 
$
5,465

 
$
3,430

 
$
4,832

 
$
3,328

 
$
4,367

 
$
16,039

 
$
15,957

Public finance - non-U.S.
 

 
406

 
164

 
107

 
990

 
181

 
89

 
116

 
677

 
1,376

Structured finance - U.S.
 

 
3

 
1,064

 
47

 
243

 

 

 
246

 
1,114

 
489

Structured finance - non-U.S.
 

 

 

 
24

 
28

 
127

 

 
47

 
24

 
202

Total
 
$
2,749

 
$
4,775

 
$
4,687

 
$
5,643

 
$
4,691

 
$
5,140

 
$
3,417

 
$
4,776

 
$
17,854

 
$
18,024



Please refer to the explanation of Non-GAAP Financial Measures set forth at the end of this Financial Supplement.


12



Assured Guaranty Ltd.
Available-for-Sale Investment Portfolio and Cash
As of December 31, 2017
(dollars in millions)
                                           
 
 
 
Amortized Cost
 
Pre-Tax Book Yield
 
After-Tax Book Yield (8)
 
Fair Value
 
Annualized Investment Income (1)
Investment portfolio, available-for-sale:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Fixed maturity securities:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Obligations of states and political subdivisions(4)
 
$
5,259

 
3.59
%
 
3.35
%
 
$
5,495

 
$
189

 
Insured obligations of state and political subdivisions (2)(4)
 
245

 
4.89
%
 
4.57
%
 
265

 
12

 
U.S. Treasury securities and obligations of U.S. government agencies
 
212

 
2.06
%
 
1.66
%
 
217

 
4

 
Agency obligations
 
60

 
5.14
%
 
4.67
%
 
68

 
3

 
Corporate securities (4)
 
1,973

 
3.04
%
 
2.66
%
 
2,018

 
60

 
Mortgage-backed securities (MBS):
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Residential MBS (RMBS) (3)(4)
 
852

 
4.59
%
 
3.93
%
 
861

 
39

 
 
Commercial MBS (CMBS)
 
540

 
3.26
%
 
2.84
%
 
549

 
18

 
Asset-backed securities (4)
 
730

 
8.49
%
 
6.74
%
 
896

 
62

 
Foreign government securities
 
316

 
1.56
%
 
1.23
%
 
305

 
5

 
 
Total fixed maturity securities
 
10,187

 
3.84
%
 
3.42
%
 
10,674

 
392

Short-term investments
 
627

 
1.10
%
 
0.89
%
 
627

 
6

Cash (5)
 
144

 
%
 
%
 
144

 

 
 
Total
 
$
10,958

 
3.68
%
 
3.27
%
 
$
11,445

 
$
398

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Ratings (6):
 
Fair Value
 
% of Portfolio
 
 
 

 
 
 
U.S. Treasury securities and obligations of U.S. government agencies
 
$
217

 
2.0
%
 
 
 

 
 
 
Agency obligations
 
68

 
0.6
%
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
AAA/Aaa
 
1,528

 
14.3
%
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
AA/Aa
 
5,312

 
49.8
%
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
A/A
 
2,014

 
18.9
%
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
BBB
 
365

 
3.4
%
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Below investment grade (BIG) (7)
 
1,115

 
10.5
%
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Not rated
 
55

 
0.5
%
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Total fixed maturity securities, available-for-sale
 
$
10,674

 
100.0
%
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Duration of fixed maturity securities and short-term investments (in years):
 
 
 
5.3
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Average ratings of fixed maturity securities and short-term investments
 
 
 
A+
 
 
 
 
 
 

1)
Represents annualized investment income based on amortized cost and pre-tax book yields.
2)
Reflects obligations of state and local political subdivisions that have been insured by other financial guarantors. The underlying ratings of these bonds, after giving effect to the lower of the rating assigned by S&P Global Ratings, a division of Standard & Poor's Financial Services LLC (S&P) or Moody's Investors Service, Inc. (Moody's), average A+. Includes fair value of $98 million insured by AGC and AGM.
3) Includes fair value of $221 million in subprime RMBS, which has an average rating of BIG.
4)
Includes securities purchased or obtained as part of loss mitigation or other risk management strategies.
5)
Cash is not included in the yield calculation.
6)
Ratings are represented by the lower of the Moody's and S&P classifications except for bonds purchased for loss mitigation (loss mitigation securities) or other risk management strategies which use internal ratings classifications.
7)
Includes below investment grade securities that were purchased or obtained as part of loss mitigation or other risk management strategies of $1,638 million in par with carrying value of $1,093 million.
8)
After tax book yield reflects a decrease in the tax rate from 35% to 21%.



13



Assured Guaranty Ltd.
Estimated Net Exposure Amortization(1) and Estimated Future Net Premium
and Credit Derivative Revenues
(dollars in millions)



 
 
 
 
 
 
Financial Guaranty Insurance (2)
 
 
 
 
 
Estimated Net Debt Service Amortization
 
Estimated Ending Net Debt Service Outstanding
 
Expected PV Net Earned Premiums
 
Accretion of Discount
 
Effect of FG VIE Consolidation on Expected PV Net Earned Premiums and Accretion of Discount
 
Future Credit Derivative Revenues
 
2017 (as of December 31)
 
 
 
$
401,118

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
2018 Q1
 
$
8,591

 
392,527

 
$
89

 
$
5

 
$
(3
)
 
$
2

 
2018 Q2
 
10,568

 
381,959

 
88

 
5

 
(3
)
 
2

 
2018 Q3
 
11,566

 
370,393

 
84

 
5

 
(3
)
 
2

 
2018 Q4
 
8,402

 
361,991

 
82

 
5

 
(3
)
 
2

 
2019
 
29,744

 
332,247

 
295

 
17

 
(9
)
 
9

 
2020
 
22,195

 
310,052

 
266

 
16

 
(7
)
 
8

 
2021
 
22,447

 
287,605

 
244

 
14

 
(6
)
 
8

 
2022
 
21,293

 
266,312

 
223

 
13

 
(5
)
 
7

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
2018-2022
 
134,806

 
266,312

 
1,371

 
80

 
(39
)
 
40

 
2023-2027
 
90,064

 
176,248

 
866

 
51

 
(17
)
 
30

 
2028-2032
 
71,232

 
105,016

 
565

 
29

 
(12
)
 
25

 
2033-2037
 
50,648

 
54,368

 
324

 
15

 
(11
)
 
21

 
After 2037
 
54,368

 

 
281

 
13

 
0

 
24

 
 
Total
 
$
401,118

 
 
 
$
3,407

 
$
188

 
$
(79
)
 
$
140

 


1)
Represents the future expected amortization of current debt service outstanding (principal and interest), assuming no advance refundings, as of December 31, 2017. Actual amortization differs from expected maturities because borrowers may have the right to call or prepay guaranteed obligations, terminations and because of management's assumptions on structured finance amortization.

2)
See page 16, ‘‘Net Expected Loss to be Expensed.’’




14



Assured Guaranty Ltd.
Expected Amortization of Net Par Outstanding
(dollars in millions)

Structured Finance
 
 
 
Estimated Net Par Amortization
 
 
 
 
 
U.S. and Non-U.S. Pooled Corporate
 
U.S. RMBS
 
Financial Products
 
Other Structured Finance
 
Total
 
Estimated Ending Net Par Outstanding
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
2017 (as of December 31)
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 

 
$
12,638

2018 Q1
 
$
19

 
$
202

 
$
34

 
$
195

 
$
450

 
12,188

2018 Q2
 
9

 
211

 
2

 
146

 
368

 
11,820

2018 Q3
 
16

 
202

 
(2
)
 
115

 
331

 
11,489

2018 Q4
 
10

 
191

 
(52
)
 
151

 
300

 
11,189

2019
 
81

 
770

 
7

 
579

 
1,437

 
9,752

2020
 
82

 
618

 
(2
)
 
363

 
1,061

 
8,691

2021
 
65

 
562

 
2

 
498

 
1,127

 
7,564

2022
 
41

 
404

 
96

 
492

 
1,033

 
6,531

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
2018-2022
 
323

 
3,160

 
85

 
2,539

 
6,107

 
6,531

2023-2027
 
278

 
1,035

 
162

 
1,157

 
2,632

 
3,899

2028-2032
 
219

 
255

 
880

 
364

 
1,718

 
2,181

2033-2037
 
602

 
307

 
226

 
757

 
1,892

 
289

After 2037
 
82

 
61

 
65

 
81

 
289

 

 
Total structured finance
 
$
1,504

 
$
4,818

 
$
1,418

 
$
4,898

 
$
12,638

 


Public Finance
 
 
 
Estimated Net Par Amortization
 
Estimated Ending Net Par Outstanding
 
 
 
 
 
 
2017 (as of December 31)
 
 
 
$
252,314

2018 Q1
 
$
5,101

 
247,213

2018 Q2
 
7,213

 
240,000

2018 Q3
 
8,404

 
231,596

2018 Q4
 
5,337

 
226,259

2019
 
17,834

 
208,425

2020
 
11,322

 
197,103

2021
 
12,081

 
185,022

2022
 
11,568

 
173,454

 
 
 
 
 
 
2018-2022
 
78,860

 
173,454

2023-2027
 
51,541

 
121,913

2028-2032
 
45,634

 
76,279

2033-2037
 
34,974

 
41,305

After 2037
 
41,305

 

 
Total public finance
 
$
252,314

 



Net par outstanding (end of period)
 
 
 
1Q-16
 
2Q-16
 
3Q-16
 
4Q-16
 
1Q-17
 
2Q-17
 
3Q-17
 
4Q-17
Public finance - U.S.
 
$
282,055

 
$
272,114

 
$
258,650

 
$
244,798

 
$
238,050

 
$
232,418

 
$
218,216

 
$
209,392

Public finance - non-U.S.
 
29,385

 
28,128

 
28,239

 
26,381

 
39,343

 
40,533

 
42,727

 
42,922

Structured finance - U.S.
 
30,452

 
25,562

 
24,387

 
22,057

 
18,446

 
15,655

 
13,142

 
11,224

Structured finance - non-U.S.
 
5,123

 
4,060

 
4,049

 
3,082

 
2,404

 
2,014

 
1,682

 
1,414

 
Net par outstanding
 
$
347,015

 
$
329,864

 
$
315,325

 
$
296,318

 
$
298,243

 
$
290,620

 
$
275,767

 
$
264,952


Please refer to the Glossary for an explanation of the presentation of net par outstanding and of the various sectors.

15



Assured Guaranty Ltd.
Net Expected Loss to be Expensed
As of December 31, 2017
(dollars in millions)


 
 
 
Net Expected Loss to be Expensed (1)
 
 
 
 
GAAP
 
 
 
 
 
 
2018 Q1
 
$
8

 
2018 Q2
 
9

 
2018 Q3
 
10

 
2018 Q4
 
10

 
2019
 
42

 
2020
 
39

 
2021
 
35

 
2022
 
32

 
 
 
 
 
 
2018-2022
 
185

 
2023-2027
 
131

 
2028-2032
 
78

 
2033-2037
 
36

 
After 2037
 
12

 
 
Total expected present value of net expected loss to be expensed(2)
 
442

 
Future accretion
 
88

 
 
Total expected future loss and LAE
 
$
530

 

1)
The present value of net expected loss to be paid is discounted using risk free rates ranging from 0.0% to 2.78% for U.S. dollar denominated obligations.

2)
Excludes $52 million related to FG VIEs, which are eliminated in consolidation.




16



Assured Guaranty Ltd.
Financial Guaranty Profile (1 of 3)
(dollars in millions)


Net Par Outstanding and Average Rating by Asset Type

 
 
 
December 31, 2017
 
December 31, 2016
 
 
 
Net Par Outstanding
 
Avg. Internal Rating
 
Net Par Outstanding
 
Avg. Internal Rating
U.S. public finance:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
General obligation
 
$
90,705

 
A-
 
$
107,717

 
A
 
Tax backed
 
44,350

 
A-
 
49,931

 
A-
 
Municipal utilities
 
32,357

 
A-
 
37,603

 
A
 
Transportation
 
17,030

 
A-
 
19,403

 
A-
 
Healthcare
 
8,763

 
A
 
11,238

 
A
 
Higher education
 
8,195

 
A
 
10,085

 
A
 
Infrastructure finance
 
4,216

 
BBB+
 
3,769

 
BBB+
 
Housing revenue
 
1,319

 
BBB+
 
1,559

 
A-
 
Investor-owned utilities
 
523

 
A-
 
697

 
BBB+
 
Other public finance
 
1,934

 
A
 
2,796

 
A
 
 
Total U.S. public finance
 
209,392

 
A-
 
244,798

 
A
Non-U.S. public finance:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Infrastructure finance
 
18,234

 
BBB
 
10,731

 
BBB
 
Regulated utilities
 
16,689

 
BBB+
 
9,263

 
BBB+
 
Pooled infrastructure
 
1,561

 
AAA
 
1,513

 
AAA
 
Other public finance
 
6,438

 
A
 
4,874

 
A
 
 
Total non-U.S. public finance
 
42,922

 
BBB+
 
26,381

 
BBB+
Total public finance
 
$
252,314

 
A-
 
$
271,179

 
A-
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
U.S. structured finance:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
RMBS
 
$
4,818

 
BBB-
 
$
5,637

 
BBB-
 
Consumer receivables
 
1,590

 
A-
 
1,652

 
BBB+
 
Insurance securitizations
 
1,449

 
A+
 
2,308

 
A+
 
Financial products
 
1,418

 
AA-
 
1,540

 
AA-
 
Pooled corporate obligations
 
1,347

 
A
 
10,050

 
AAA
 
Commercial receivables
 
146

 
BBB
 
230

 
BBB-
 
Other structured finance
 
456

 
A+
 
640

 
AA-
 
 
Total U.S. structured finance
 
11,224

 
BBB+
 
22,057

 
A+
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Non-U.S. structured finance:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
RMBS
 
637

 
A-
 
604

 
A-
 
Commercial receivables
 
296

 
A
 
356

 
BBB+
 
Pooled corporate obligations
 
157

 
A+
 
1,535

 
AA
 
Other structured finance
 
324

 
A
 
587

 
AA
 
 
Total non-U.S. structured finance
 
1,414

 
A
 
3,082

 
AA-
Total structured finance
 
$
12,638

 
A-
 
$
25,139

 
AA-
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Total
 
$
264,952

 
A-
 
$
296,318

 
A


Please refer to the Glossary for an explanation of the presentation of net par outstanding and the Company's internal rating approach, and of the various sectors.



17



Assured Guaranty Ltd.
Financial Guaranty Profile (2 of 3)
As of December 31, 2017
(dollars in millions)


Distribution by Ratings of Financial Guaranty Portfolio

 
 
 
Public Finance - U.S.
 
Public Finance - Non-U.S.
 
Structured Finance - U.S.
 
Structured Finance - Non-U.S.
 
Total
Ratings:
 
Net Par Outstanding
%
 
Net Par Outstanding
%
 
Net Par Outstanding
%
 
Net Par Outstanding
%
 
Net Par Outstanding
%
AAA
 
$
877

0.4
%
 
$
2,541

5.9
%
 
1,655

14.7
%
 
319

22.5
%
 
$
5,392

2.1
%
AA
 
30,016

14.3

 
205

0.5

 
3,915

34.9

 
76

5.4

 
34,212

12.9

A
 
118,620

56.7

 
13,936

32.5

 
1,630

14.5

 
210

14.9

 
134,396

50.7

BBB
 
52,739

25.2

 
24,509

57.1

 
763

6.8

 
703

49.7

 
78,714

29.7

BIG
 
7,140

3.4

 
1,731

4.0

 
3,261

29.1

 
106

7.5

 
12,238

4.6

 
Net Par Outstanding (1)
 
$
209,392

100.0
%
 
$
42,922

100.0
%
 
$
11,224

100.0
%
 
$
1,414

100.0
%
 
$
264,952

100.0
%

1)
As of December 31, 2017, excludes $2.0 billion of net par attributable to loss mitigation strategies, including loss mitigation securities held in the investment portfolio, which are primarily BIG.


Please refer to the Glossary for an explanation of the presentation of net par outstanding and the Company's internal rating approach, and of the various sectors.





18



Assured Guaranty Ltd.
Financial Guaranty Profile (3 of 3)
As of December 31, 2017
(dollars in millions)


Geographic Distribution of Financial Guaranty Portfolio

 
 
 
Net Par Outstanding
 
% of Total
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
U.S.:
 
 
 
 
U.S. public finance:
 
 
 
 
 
 California
 
$
36,507

 
13.8
%
 
 Texas
 
19,027

 
7.2

 
 Pennsylvania
 
18,061

 
6.8

 
 Illinois
 
17,044

 
6.4

 
 New York
 
15,672

 
5.9

 
 New Jersey
 
12,441

 
4.7

 
 Florida
 
10,272

 
3.9

 
 Michigan
 
6,353

 
2.4

 
 Puerto Rico
 
4,968

 
1.9

 
 Alabama
 
4,808

 
1.8

 
Other
 
64,239

 
24.3

 
 
Total public finance
 
209,392

 
79.1

U.S. structured finance:
 
11,224

 
4.2

 
 
Total U.S.
 
220,616

 
83.3

 
 
 
 
 
 
Non-U.S.:
 
 
 
 
 
 United Kingdom
 
30,062

 
11.3

 
 France
 
3,167

 
1.2

 
 Canada
 
2,690

 
1.0

 
 Australia
 
2,309

 
0.9

 
 Italy
 
1,497

 
0.6

 
 Other
 
4,611

 
1.7

 
 
Total non-U.S.
 
44,336

 
16.7

 
 
 
 
 
 
Total net par outstanding
 
$
264,952

 
100.0
%

Please refer to the Glossary for an explanation of the presentation of net par outstanding and of the various sectors.



19



Assured Guaranty Ltd.
Exposure to Puerto Rico (1 of 3)
As of December 31, 2017
(dollars in millions)

Exposure to Puerto Rico
 
Gross Par Outstanding
 
Net Par Outstanding
 
Gross Debt Service Outstanding
 
Net Debt Service Outstanding
   Total
$
5,186

 
$
4,966

 
$
8,514

 
$
8,195



Exposure to Puerto Rico by Risk(1) 
 
Net Par Outstanding
 
 
 
AGM
 
AGC
 
AG Re
 
Eliminations (2)
 
Total Net Par Outstanding (3)
 
Gross Par Outstanding
Commonwealth Constitutionally Guaranteed
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Commonwealth of Puerto Rico - General Obligation Bonds (4) 
$
670

 
$
343

 
$
407

 
$
(1
)
 
$
1,419

 
$
1,469

Puerto Rico Public Buildings Authority (PBA)
9

 
141

 
0

 
(9
)
 
141

 
146

Public Corporations - Certain Revenues Potentially Subject to Clawback
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Puerto Rico Highways and Transportation Authority (PRHTA) (Transportation revenue) (4)
252

 
511

 
204

 
(85
)
 
882

 
913

PRHTA (Highways revenue) (4)
358

 
93

 
44

 

 
495

 
556

Puerto Rico Convention Center District Authority (PRCCDA)

 
152

 

 

 
152

 
152

Puerto Rico Infrastructure Financing Authority (PRIFA)

 
17

 
1

 

 
18

 
18

Other Public Corporations
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Puerto Rico Electric Power Authority (PREPA) (4)
547

 
73

 
233

 

 
853

 
870

Puerto Rico Aqueduct and Sewer Authority (PRASA) (5)

 
284

 
89

 

 
373

 
373

Puerto Rico Municipal Finance Agency (MFA) (5)
221

 
54

 
85

 

 
360

 
416

Puerto Rico Sales Tax Financing Corporation (COFINA) (4)
263

 

 
9

 

 
272

 
272

University of Puerto Rico (5)

 
1

 

 

 
1

 
1

Total exposure to Puerto Rico
$
2,320

 
$
1,669

 
$
1,072

 
$
(95
)
 
$
4,966

 
$
5,186


1)
The general obligation bonds of Puerto Rico and various obligations of its related authorities and public corporations are rated BIG. The December 31, 2017 amounts include $389 million (which comprises $36 million of General Obligation Bonds, $134 million of PREPA, $144 million of PRHTA (Highways revenue), and $75 million of MFA) related to 2017 commutations of previously ceded business.

2)
Net par outstanding eliminations relate to second-to-pay policies under which an Assured Guaranty insurance subsidiary guarantees an obligation already insured by another Assured Guaranty insurance subsidiary.

3)
Includes exposure to capital appreciation bonds with a current aggregate net par outstanding of $26 million and a fully accreted net par at maturity of $56 million. Of these amounts, current net par of $20 million and fully accreted net par at maturity of $50 million relate to the COFINA, current net par of $4 million and fully accreted net par at maturity of $4 million relate to the PRHTA, and current net par of $2 million and fully accreted net par at maturity of $2 million relate to the Commonwealth General Obligation Bonds.

4)
As of the date of this filing, the seven-member federal financial oversight board established by the Puerto Rico Oversight, Management, and Economic Stability Act (PROMESA) has certified a filing under Title III of PROMESA for these exposures.

5)
As of the date of this filing, the Company has not paid claims on these credits.




20



Assured Guaranty Ltd.
Exposure to Puerto Rico (2 of 3)
As of December 31, 2017
(dollars in millions)

Amortization Schedule of Net Par Outstanding of Puerto Rico (1) 

 
2018 Q1
2018 Q2
2018Q3
2018 Q4
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028 -2032
2033 -2037
2038 -2042
2043 -2047
Total
Commonwealth Constitutionally Guaranteed
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Commonwealth of Puerto Rico - General Obligation Bonds
$
0

$
0

$
78

$
0

$
87

$
141

$
15

$
37

$
14

$
73

$
68

$
34

$
90

$
215

$
567

$

$

$
1,419

PBA




3

5

13

0

6

0

7

11

40

16

40



141

Public Corporations - Certain Revenues Potentially Subject to Clawback
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
PRHTA (Transportation revenue)
0

0

38


32

25

18

28

34

4

29

24

29

157

279

185


882

PRHTA (Highway revenue)


20


21

22

35

6

32

33

34

1


112

179



495

PRCCDA












19

24

109



152

PRIFA


2






2







14


18

Other Public Corporations
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
PREPA


5


26

48

28

28

95

93

68

106

105

238

13



853

PRASA









2

25

26

28

29


2

261

373

MFA


57


55

45

40

40

22

17

17

34

12

21




360

COFINA
0

0

0

0

(1
)
(1
)
(2
)
(2
)
1

0

(2
)
(2
)
(2
)
(1
)
30

252

2

272

University of Puerto Rico


0


0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

1

0



1

Total
$
0

$
0

$
200

$
0

$
223

$
285

$
147

$
137

$
206

$
222

$
246

$
234

$
321

$
812

$
1,217

$
453

$
263

$
4,966


1)
Includes exposure to capital appreciation bonds with a current aggregate net par outstanding of $26 million and a fully accreted net par at maturity of $56 million. Of these amounts, current net par of $20 million and fully accreted net par at maturity of $50 million relate to the COFINA, current net par of $4 million and fully accreted net par at maturity of $4 million relate to the PRHTA, and current net par of $2 million and fully accreted net par at maturity of $2 million relate to the Commonwealth General Obligation Bonds.


21



Assured Guaranty Ltd.
Exposure to Puerto Rico (3 of 3)
As of December 31, 2017
(dollars in millions)

Amortization Schedule of Net Debt Service Outstanding of Puerto Rico(1) 

 
2018 Q1
2018 Q2
2018Q3
2018 Q4
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028 -2032
2033 -2037
2038 -2042
2043 -2047
Total
Commonwealth Constitutionally Guaranteed
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Commonwealth of Puerto Rico - General Obligation Bonds
$
37

$
0

$
114

$
0

$
156

$
206

$
74

$
94

$
71

$
128

$
119

$
82

$
136

$
396

$
649

$

$

$
2,262

PBA
4


4


10

12

20

6

13

6

12

17

45

30

45



224

Public Corporations - Certain Revenues Potentially Subject to Clawback
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
PRHTA (Transportation revenue)
23

0

61


76

67

59

68

72

41

66

59

63

300

372

210


1,537

PRHTA (Highways revenue)
13


33


47

46

58

27

52

51

51

17

15

182

203



795

PRCCDA
3


3


7

7

7

7

7

7

7

7

26

55

121



264

PRIFA
0


2


1

1

1

1

2

1

1

1

1

4

3

16


35

Other Public Corporations
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
PREPA
18

3

22

3

65

87

63

62

128

121

91

126

122

273

15



1,199

PRASA
10


10


19

19

19

19

19

21

44

44

44

99

68

69

314

818

MFA
9


67


70

58

50

48

28

23

21

37

14

22




447

COFINA
6

0

6

0

13

13

13

13

16

15

13

13

13

74

96

307

2

613

University of Puerto Rico
0


0


0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

1

0



1

Total
$
123

$
3

$
322

$
3

$
464

$
516

$
364

$
345

$
408

$
414

$
425

$
403

$
479

$
1,436

$
1,572

$
602

$
316

$
8,195


1)
Includes exposure to capital appreciation bonds with a current aggregate net par outstanding of $26 million and a fully accreted net par at maturity of $56 million. Of these amounts, current net par of $20 million and fully accreted net par at maturity of $50 million relate to the COFINA, current net par of $4 million and fully accreted net par at maturity of $4 million relate to the PRHTA, and current net par of $2 million and fully accreted net par at maturity of $2 million relate to the Commonwealth General Obligation Bonds.


22



Assured Guaranty Ltd.
Direct Pooled Corporate Obligations Profile
As of December 31, 2017
(dollars in millions)


Distribution of Direct Pooled Corporate Obligations by Ratings
 
 
 
Net Par Outstanding
 
% of Total
 
Avg. Initial Credit Enhancement
 
Avg. Current Credit Enhancement
Ratings:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
AAA
 
$
168

 
11.5
%
 
44.3%
 
80.1%
 
AA
 
714

 
48.8

 
46.3
 
55.4
 
A
 
224

 
15.3

 
44.5
 
53.2
 
BBB
 
155

 
10.5

 
39.4
 
35.3
 
BIG
 
203

 
13.9

 
45.3
 
37.3
 
 
Total exposures
 
$
1,464

 
100.0
%
 
45.0%
 
52.8%


Distribution of Direct Pooled Corporate Obligations by Asset Class
 
 
 
Net Par Outstanding
 
% of Total
 
Avg. Initial Credit Enhancement
 
Avg. Current Credit Enhancement
 
Avg. Rating
Asset class:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Trust preferred
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Banks and insurance
 
$
1,099

 
75.0
%
 
44.5%
 
52.6%
 
A+
 
 
U.S. mortgage and real estate investment trusts
 
250

 
17.1

 
47.3
 
53.7
 
BBB+
 
Other pooled corporates
 
115

 
7.9

 
N/A
 
N/A
 
A+
 
 
Total exposures
 
$
1,464

 
100.0
%
 
45.0%
 
52.8%
 
A




Please refer to the Glossary for an explanation of internal ratings, performance indicators and sectors.




23



Assured Guaranty Ltd.
Consolidated U.S. RMBS Profile
As of December 31, 2017
(dollars in millions)

                
Distribution of U.S. RMBS by Rating and Type of Exposure

Ratings:
 
Prime First Lien
 
Alt-A First Lien
 
Option ARMs
 
Subprime First Lien
 
Second Lien
 
Total Net Par Outstanding
AAA
 
$
4


$
117


$
25


$
1,257

 
$
0


$
1,404

AA
 
25


207


31


238

 


500

A
 
0




0


85

 
0


85

BBB
 
2


0




63

 
2


67

BIG
 
117


490


59


1,055

 
1,039


2,761

Total exposures
 
$
150


$
814


$
115


$
2,698

 
$
1,041


$
4,818



Distribution of U.S. RMBS by Year Insured and Type of Exposure
 
Year
insured:
 
Prime First Lien
 
Alt-A First Lien
 
Option ARMs
 
Subprime First Lien
 
Second Lien
 
Total Net Par Outstanding
2004 and prior
 
$
19


$
37


$
13


$
815

 
$
51


$
935

2005
 
74


268


27


155

 
217


742

2006
 
57


57


20


573

 
301


1,009

2007
 


451


55


1,084

 
472


2,063

2008
 






70

 


70

  Total exposures
 
$
150


$
814


$
115


$
2,698

 
$
1,041


$
4,818



Please refer to the Glossary for an explanation of the Company's presentation of net par outstanding and a description of sectors.

























24



Assured Guaranty Ltd.
Below Investment Grade Exposures (1 of 4)
(dollars in millions)

BIG Exposures by Asset Exposure Type
                                                                
 
 
 
December 31, 2017
 
December 31, 2016
U.S. public finance:
 
 
 
 
 
General obligation
 
$
3,097

 
$
3,186

 
Tax backed
 
2,408

 
2,249

 
Municipal utilities
 
1,324

 
1,152

 
Higher education
 
102

 
87

 
Transportation
 
94

 
164

 
Healthcare
 
77

 
134

 
Housing revenue
 
18

 
19

 
Infrastructure finance
 
2

 
368

 
Other public finance
 
18

 
21

 
 
Total U.S. public finance
 
7,140

 
7,380

Non-U.S. public finance:
 
 
 
 
 
Infrastructure finance
 
1,320

 
1,037

 
Other public finance
 
411

 
305

 
 
Total non-U.S. public finance
 
1,731

 
1,342

Total public finance
 
$
8,871

 
$
8,722

 
 
 
 
 
 
U.S. structured finance:
 
 
 
 
 
RMBS
 
$
2,761

 
$
3,151

 
Consumer receivables
 
186

 
233

 
Pooled corporate obligations
 
161

 
430

 
Insurance securitizations
 
85

 
126

 
Commercial receivables
 
60

 
103

 
Other structured finance
 
8

 
16

 
 
Total U.S. structured finance
 
3,261

 
4,059

Non-U.S. structured finance:
 
 
 
 
 
RMBS
 
48

 
61

 
Pooled corporate obligations
 
42

 
185

 
Commercial receivables
 
16

 
47

 
 
Total non-U.S. structured finance
 
106

 
293

Total structured finance
 
$
3,367

 
$
4,352

Total BIG net par outstanding
 
$
12,238

 
$
13,074



Please refer to the Glossary for an explanation of the Company's presentation of net par outstanding and a description of various sectors.



25




Assured Guaranty Ltd.
Below Investment Grade Exposures (2 of 4)
(dollars in millions)


Net Par Outstanding by BIG Category(1)  
 
 
 
 
December 31, 2017
 
December 31, 2016
Category 1
 
 
 
 
 
U.S. public finance
 
$
2,368

 
$
2,403

 
Non-U.S. public finance
 
1,455

 
1,288

 
U.S. structured finance
 
603

 
594

 
Non-U.S. structured finance
 
102

 
210

 
 
Total Category 1
 
4,528

 
4,495

Category 2
 
 
 
 
 
U.S. public finance
 
663

 
3,122

 
Non-U.S. public finance
 
276

 
54

 
U.S. structured finance
 
418

 
800

 
Non-U.S. structured finance
 
4

 
83

 
 
Total Category 2
 
1,361

 
4,059

Category 3
 
 
 
 
 
U.S. public finance
 
4,109

 
1,855

 
Non-U.S. public finance
 

 

 
U.S. structured finance
 
2,240

 
2,665

 
Non-U.S. structured finance
 

 

 
 
Total Category 3
 
6,349

 
4,520

 
 
 
BIG Total
 
$
12,238

 
$
13,074


1)
Assured Guaranty's surveillance department is responsible for monitoring the Company's portfolio of credits and maintains a list of BIG credits. BIG Category 1: Below-investment-grade transactions showing sufficient deterioration to make future losses possible, but for which none are currently expected. BIG Category 2: Below-investment-grade transactions for which future losses are expected but for which no claims (other than liquidity claims which are claims that the Company expects to be reimbursed within one year) have yet been paid. BIG Category 3: Below-investment-grade transactions for which future losses are expected and on which claims (other than liquidity claims) have been paid.

Please refer to the Glossary for an explanation of the Company's internal rating approach, presentation of net par outstanding and a description of various sectors.




26



Assured Guaranty Ltd.
Below Investment Grade Exposures (3 of 4)
As of December 31, 2017
(dollars in millions)


Public Finance BIG Exposures with Revenue Sources Greater Than $50 Million

 
 
 
Net Par Outstanding
 
Internal Rating
Name or description
 
 
 
 
U.S. public finance:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Puerto Rico, General Obligation, Appropriations and Guarantees of the Commonwealth
 
$
1,578

 
CCC-
 
 
 
Puerto Rico Highways & Transportation Authority
 
1,377

 
CC-
 
 
 
Puerto Rico Electric Power Authority
 
853

 
CC
 
 
 
Puerto Rico Aqueduct & Sewer Authority
 
373

 
CCC
 
 
 
Puerto Rico Municipal Finance Agency
 
360

 
CCC-
 
 
 
Oyster Bay, New York
 
342

 
BB+
 
 
 
Hartford, Connecticut
 
339

 
B
 
 
 
Puerto Rico Sales Tax Financing Corporation
 
272

 
CCC+
 
 
 
Virgin Islands Public Finance Authority
 
169

 
BB
 
 
 
Puerto Rico Convention Center District Authority
 
152

 
CC-
 
 
 
Stockton Pension Obligation Bonds, California
 
113

 
D
 
 
 
Penn Hills School District, Pennsylvania
 
107

 
BB
 
 
 
Butler County General Authority, Pennsylvania
 
99

 
BB
 
 
 
Detroit-Wayne County Stadium Authority, Michigan
 
84

 
BB+
 
 
 
Pennsylvania Economic Development Financing Authority (Capitol Region Parking System)
 
69

 
BB
 
 
 
Atlantic City, New Jersey
 
61

 
BB
 
 
 
Virgin Islands Water and Power Authority
 
56

 
BB
 
 
Total U.S. public finance
 
$
6,404

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Non-U.S. public finance:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Coventry & Rugby Hospital Company
 
$
572

 
BB+
 
 
 
Valencia Fair
 
337

 
BB-
 
 
 
Road Management Services PLC (A13 Highway)
 
222

 
B+
 
 
 
M6 Duna Autopalya Koncesszios Zartkoruen Mukodo Reszvenytarsasag
 
218

 
BB+
 
 
 
Autovia de la Mancha, S.A.
 
121

 
BB
 
 
 
CountyRoute (A130) plc
 
91

 
BB-
 
 
 
Breeze Finance S.A.
 
54

 
B-
 
 
 
Metropolitano de Porto Lease and Sublease of Railroad Equipment
 
53

 
B+
 
 
Total non-U.S. public finance
 
$
1,668

 
 
Total
 
$
8,072

 
 


Please refer to the Glossary for an explanation of the Company's internal rating approach, presentation of net par outstanding and a description of various sectors.



27



Assured Guaranty Ltd.
Below Investment Grade Exposures (4 of 4)
As of December 31, 2017
(dollars in millions)

Structured Finance BIG Exposures Greater Than $50 Million
 
 
Net Par Outstanding
 
Internal Rating
 
60+ Day Delinquencies
Name or description
 
 
 
 
 
 
U.S. structured finance:
 
 
 
 
 
 
RMBS:
 
 
 
 
 
 
Option One 2007-FXD2
 
$
217

 
CCC
 
16.8%
Soundview 2007-WMC1
 
163

 
CCC
 
40.6%
Countrywide HELOC 2006-I
 
160

 
BB
 
2.2%
Nomura Asset Accept. Corp. 2007-1
 
140

 
CCC
 
24.3%
MABS 2007-NCW
 
129

 
CCC
 
25.9%
New Century 2005-A
 
104

 
CCC
 
18.1%
Countrywide Home Equity Loan Trust 2007-D
 
95

 
B
 
2.4%
Countrywide HELOC 2007-A
 
87

 
B
 
2.8%
Countrywide HELOC 2007-B
 
86

 
B
 
3.6%
Countrywide HELOC 2006-F
 
85

 
B
 
3.5%
Countrywide Home Equity Loan Trust 2005-J
 
83

 
CCC
 
3.8%
Countrywide HELOC 2005-D
 
80

 
B
 
2.9%
Soundview (Delta) 2008-1
 
70

 
CCC
 
21.9%
IndyMac 2007-H1 HELOC
 
67

 
CCC
 
3.1%
Ace 2007-D1
 
62

 
CCC
 
28.6%
Doral 2006-1
 
57

 
CCC
 
30.7%
Ace Home Equity Loan Trust 2007-SL1
 
54

 
CCC
 
6.7%
Subtotal RMBS
 
$
1,739

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Non-RMBS:
 
 
 
 
 
 
Taberna Preferred Funding II, Ltd.
 
$
101

 
BB
 
N/A
Ballantyne Re Plc
 
85

 
CC
 
N/A
National Collegiate Trust Series 2006-2
 
68

 
CCC
 
N/A
US Capital Funding IV, LTD
 
60

 
B
 
N/A
Subtotal non-RMBS
Subtotal non-RMBS
314

 
 
 
 
Total U.S. structured finance
Subtotal U.S. structured finance
$
2,053

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Total non-U.S. structured finance
 
$

 
 
 
 
Total
Subtotal Non-U.S. structured finance
$
2,053

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 


Please refer to the Glossary for the Company's internal rating approach, presentation of net par outstanding and a description of performance indicators and sectors.

28



Assured Guaranty Ltd.
Largest Exposures by Sector (1 of 4)
As of December 31, 2017
(dollars in millions)

50 Largest U.S. Public Finance Exposures by Revenue Source
 
 
Credit Name:
 
Net Par Outstanding
 
Internal Rating
 
 
 
New Jersey (State of)
 
$
4,821

 
BBB
 
 
Illinois (State of)
 
2,059

 
BBB
 
 
Chicago (City of) Illinois
 
1,659

 
BBB+
 
 
Puerto Rico, General Obligation, Appropriations and Guarantees of the Commonwealth
 
1,578

 
CCC-
 
 
Pennsylvania (Commonwealth of)
 
1,481

 
A-
 
 
North Texas Tollway Authority
 
1,383

 
A
 
 
Puerto Rico Highways & Transportation Authority
 
1,377

 
CC-
 
 
California (State of)
 
1,312

 
A
 
 
Chicago Public Schools, Illinois
 
1,227

 
BBB-
 
 
Massachusetts (Commonwealth of)
 
1,200

 
AA-
 
 
Philadelphia (City of) Pennsylvania
 
1,193

 
BBB+
 
 
Wisconsin (State of)
 
1,176

 
A+
 
 
New York (City of) New York
 
1,138

 
AA-
 
 
Great Lakes Water Authority (Sewerage), Michigan
 
1,011

 
BBB+
 
 
Massachusetts (Commonwealth of) Water Resources
 
938

 
AA
 
 
Arizona (State of)
 
906

 
A+
 
 
Port Authority of New York & New Jersey
 
905

 
BBB
 
 
Long Island Power Authority
 
866

 
BBB+
 
 
Puerto Rico Electric Power Authority
 
853

 
CC
 
 
Philadelphia School District, Pennsylvania
 
822

 
A-
 
 
Georgia Board of Regents
 
821

 
A
 
 
New York Metropolitan Transportation Authority
 
815

 
A
 
 
Miami-Dade County Aviation, Florida
 
811

 
A
 
 
Suffolk County, New York
 
784

 
BBB
 
 
Metropolitan Pier & Exposition Authority, Illinois
 
780

 
BBB
 
 
Pennsylvania Turnpike Commission
 
767

 
A-
 
 
New York (State of)
 
726

 
A+
 
 
Regional Transportation Authority, Illinois
 
725

 
AA-
 
 
Nassau County, New York
 
662

 
A-
 
 
Jefferson County Alabama Sewer
 
662

 
BBB-
 
 
Pittsburgh Water & Sewer, Pennsylvania
 
639

 
BBB+
 
 
Kentucky (Commonwealth of)
 
617

 
A
 
 
Miami-Dade County, Florida
 
604

 
A+
 
 
Sacramento County, California
 
603

 
A-
 
 
Oglethorpe Power Corporation, Georgia
 
600

 
BBB
 
 
Garden State Preservation Trust (Open Space & Farmland), New Jersey
 
594

 
BBB+
 
 
Metro Washington Airports Authority (Dulles Toll Road)
 
594

 
BBB+
 
 
New Jersey Turnpike Authority, New Jersey
 
563

 
A-
 
 
Atlanta, Georgia Water & Sewer System
 
530

 
A-
 
 
San Francisco (City & County) Airports Commission
 
526

 
A
 
 
Connecticut (State of)
 
499

 
A
 
 
Industry Public Facilities Authority, California
 
495

 
BBB+
 
 
Utah Transit Authority (Sales Tax)
 
495

 
AA+
 
 
California (State of) Department of Water Resources - Electric Power Revenue
 
493

 
AA-
 
 
Miami-Dade County School Board, Florida
 
491

 
A
 
 
Yankee Stadium LLC New York City Industrial Development Authority
 
461

 
BBB-
 
 
Anaheim Public Financing Authority, California
 
456

 
BBB+
 
 
Dade County Sales Tax, Florida
 
455

 
AA-
 
 
Central Florida Expressway Authority, Florida (fka Orlando-Orange County Expressway Authority)
 
447

 
A+
 
 
Houston Water and Sewer Authority, Texas
 
438

 
AA-
 
 
   Total top 50 U.S. public finance exposures
 
$
46,058

 
 

Please refer to the Glossary for an explanation of net par outstanding, internal ratings and sectors.

29



Assured Guaranty Ltd.
Largest Exposures by Sector (2 of 4)
As of December 31, 2017
(dollars in millions)

50 Largest U.S. Structured Finance Exposures
Credit Name:
 
Net Par Outstanding
 
Internal Rating
 
Credit Enhancement
 
Private US Insurance Securitization
 
$
500

 
AA
 
N/A
 
SLM Private Credit Student Trust 2007-A
 
500

 
A+
 
18.3%
 
Private US Insurance Securitization
 
424

 
AA
 
N/A
 
SLM Private Credit Student Loan Trust 2006-C
 
327

 
A+
 
29.8%
 
Private US Insurance Securitization
 
250

 
AA
 
N/A
 
Option One 2007-FXD2
 
217

 
CCC
 
0.0%
 
Timberlake Financial, LLC Floating Insured Notes
 
190

 
BBB-
 
N/A
 
Soundview 2007-WMC1
 
163

 
CCC
 
—%
 
Countrywide HELOC 2006-I
 
160

 
BB
 
0.0%
 
Nomura Asset Accept. Corp. 2007-1
 
140

 
CCC
 
0.0%
 
Access Group Private Student Loan Series 2007-A
 
139

 
A-
 
26.7%
 
CWALT Alternative Loan Trust 2007-HY9
 
136

 
A
 
0.1%
 
CWABS 2007-4
 
135

 
A+
 
0.0%
 
MABS 2007-NCW
 
129

 
CCC
 
0.0%
 
ALESCO Preferred Funding XIII, Ltd.
 
128

 
AA
 
53.2%
 
First Franklin Mortgage Loan ABS 2005-FF12
 
111

 
AAA
 
85.6%
 
OwnIt Mortgage Loan ABS Certificates 2006-3
 
111

 
AAA
 
22.9%
 
Structured Asset Investment Loan Trust 2006-1
 
111

 
AAA
 
10.6%
 
Soundview Home Equity Loan Trust 2006-OPT1
 
111

 
AAA
 
51.2%
 
New Century Home Equity Loan Trust 2006-1
 
111

 
AAA
 
10.0%
 
ALESCO Preferred Funding XI
 
105

 
AA
 
52.7%
 
New Century 2005-A
 
103

 
CCC
 
4.3%
 
Taberna Preferred Funding II, Ltd.
 
102

 
BB
 
47.4%
 
Countrywide 2007-13
 
101

 
AA-
 
20.3%
 
Trapeza CDO XI
 
100

 
A-
 
61.3%
 
National Collegiate Trust Series 2005-GT3 Grantor Trust Certificates
 
99

 
BBB
 
9.1%
 
Countrywide Home Equity Loan Trust 2007-D
 
95

 
B
 
0.0%
 
ALESCO Preferred Funding XII, Ltd.
 
88

 
A-
 
47.9%
 
Private Other Structured Finance Transaction
 
88

 
AAA
 
N/A
 
Countrywide HELOC 2007-A
 
87

 
B
 
0.0%
 
Preferred Term Securities XXIV, Ltd.
 
87

 
AA-
 
47.0%
 
Countrywide HELOC 2007-B
 
86

 
B
 
0.0%
 
Ballantyne Re Plc
 
85

 
CC
 
N/A
 
Countrywide HELOC 2006-F
 
85

 
B
 
0.0%
 
IMPAC CMB Trust Series 2007-A
 
84

 
AAA
 
10.6%
 
Countrywide Home Equity Loan Trust 2005-J
 
83

 
CCC
 
0.0%
 
Countrywide HELOC 2005-D
 
80

 
B
 
0.0%
 
First Franklin Mortgage Loan ABS 2005-FF12
 
80

 
AAA
 
85.6%
 
Trapeza CDO X, Ltd.
 
78

 
AA
 
59.1%
 
Attentus CDO I Limited
 
73

 
AA
 
59.2%
 
Alesco Preferred Funding XVI, Ltd.
 
70

 
BBB-
 
24.9%
 
Soundview (Delta) 2008-1
 
70

 
CCC
 
0.0%
 
National Collegiate Trust Series 2006-2
 
68

 
CCC
 
—%
 
IndyMac 2007-H1 HELOC
 
67

 
CCC
 
—%
 
Private Other Structured Finance Transaction
 
66

 
A-
 
N/A
 
Specialty Underwriting & Residential Fin 06-BC1
 
66

 
AAA
 
81.6%
 
MASTR Asset Backed Securities Trust 2005-NC2
 
66

 
AAA
 
—%
 
National Collegiate Trust Series 2005-1 CLASS A-5-1 Grantor Trust Certificates
 
66

 
A+
 
26.2%
 
CAPCO - Excess SIPC Excess of Loss Reinsurance
 
63

 
BBB
 
N/A
 
Ace 2007-D1
 
62

 
CCC
 
0.0%
 
   Total top 50 U.S. structured finance exposures
 
$
6,546

 
 
 
 

Please refer to the Glossary for the Company's internal rating approach, presentation of net par outstanding and a description of performance indicators of various sectors.

30



Assured Guaranty Ltd.
Largest Exposures by Sector (3 of 4)
As of December 31, 2017
(dollars in millions)

25 Largest Non-U.S. Exposures by Revenue Source
Credit Name:
Country
 
Net Par Outstanding
 
Internal Rating
 
Southern Water Services Limited
United Kingdom
 
$
2,567

 
A-
 
Hydro-Quebec, Province of Quebec
Canada
 
2,062

 
A+
 
Societe des Autoroutes du Nord et de l'Est de France S.A.
France
 
1,808

 
BBB+
 
Thames Water Utility Finance PLC
United Kingdom
 
1,519

 
A-
 
Anglian Water Services Financing
United Kingdom
 
1,466

 
A-
 
Dwr Cymru Financing Limited
United Kingdom
 
1,447

 
A-
 
Southern Gas Networks PLC
United Kingdom
 
1,082

 
BBB
 
Channel Link Enterprises Finance PLC
France, United Kingdom
 
1,014

 
BBB
 
National Grid Gas PLC
United Kingdom
 
978

 
BBB+
 
British Broadcasting Corporation
United Kingdom
 
959

 
A+
 
Verbund - Lease and Sublease of Hydro-Electric equipment
Austria
 
953

 
AAA
 
Aspire Defence Finance plc
United Kingdom
 
928

 
BBB+
 
Capital Hospitals (Barts)
United Kingdom
 
755

 
BBB-
 
Sydney Airport Finance Company
Australia
 
692

 
BBB
 
Verdun Participations 2 S.A.S.
France
 
681

 
BBB-
 
United Utilities Water PLC
United Kingdom
 
672

 
BBB+
 
InspirED Education (South Lanarkshire) plc
United Kingdom
 
663

 
BBB-
 
Envestra Limited
Australia
 
645

 
BBB+
 
Campania Region - Healthcare receivable
Italy
 
639

 
BBB-
 
Coventry & Rugby Hospital Company
United Kingdom
 
572

 
BB+
 
NATS (En Route) PLC
United Kingdom
 
548

 
A
 
Derby Healthcare PLC
United Kingdom
 
544

 
BBB
 
International Infrastructure Pool
United Kingdom
 
520

 
AAA
 
International Infrastructure Pool
United Kingdom
 
520

 
AAA
 
International Infrastructure Pool
United Kingdom
 
520

 
AAA
 
 Total top 25 non-U.S. exposures
 
 
$
24,754

 
 


Please refer to the Glossary for an explanation of net par outstanding, internal ratings and sectors.



31



Assured Guaranty Ltd.
Largest Exposures by Sector (4 of 4)
As of December 31, 2017
(dollars in millions)

10 Largest U.S. Residential Mortgage Servicer Exposures
Servicer:
 
Net Par Outstanding
 
Specialized Loan Servicing, LLC
 
$
1,567

 
Ocwen Loan Servicing, LLC (1)
 
1,235

 
Bank of America, N.A.(2)
 
930

 
Wells Fargo Bank NA
 
377

 
JPMorgan Chase Bank
 
204

 
Select Portfolio Servicing, Inc.
 
176

 
Ditech Financial LLC
 
61

 
Banco Popular de Puerto Rico
 
57

 
Carrington Mortgage Services, LLC
 
54

 
Citicorp Mortgage Securities, Inc.
 
30

 
   Total top 10 U.S. residential mortgage servicer exposures
 
$
4,691


1) Includes GMAC Mortgage LLC, Residential Funding Company LLC and Homeward Residential Inc.

2)
Includes Countrywide Home Loans, Inc.


10 Largest U.S. Healthcare Exposures
Credit Name:
 
Net Par Outstanding
 
Internal Rating
 
State
 
Children's National Medical Center, District of Columbia
 
$
404

 
A-
 
DC
 
CHRISTUS Health
 
338

 
A-
 
TX
 
Methodist Healthcare
 
326

 
A+
 
TN
 
Carolina HealthCare System
 
289

 
AA-
 
NC
 
Dignity Health, California
 
285

 
A-
 
CA
 
Mercy Health (f/k/a Catholic Health Partners)
 
268

 
A
 
OH
 
Palmetto Health Alliance, South Carolina
 
267

 
BBB+
 
SC
 
Asante Health System
 
259

 
A+
 
OR
 
Palomar Pomerado Health
 
250

 
BBB-
 
CA
 
Bon Secours Health System Obligated Group
 
233

 
A-
 
MD
 
   Total top 10 U.S. healthcare exposures
 
$
2,919

 
 
 
 


Please refer to the Glossary for the Company's internal rating approach and presentation of net par outstanding.





32



Assured Guaranty Ltd.
Rollforward of Net Expected Loss and LAE to be Paid
(dollars in millions)

Rollforward of Net Expected Loss and LAE to be Paid(1) for the Three Months Ended December 31, 2017
 
 
Net Expected Loss to be Paid (Recovered) at September 30, 2017
 
Economic Loss Development During 4Q-17
 
(Paid) Recovered Losses During 4Q-17
 
Net Expected
Loss to be
Paid 
(Recovered)
as of
December 31, 2017
Public Finance:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
U.S. public finance
 
$
1,046

 
$
123

 
$
(12
)
 
$
1,157

Non-U.S public finance
 
47

 
(1
)
 
0

 
46

Public Finance
 
1,093

 
122

 
(12
)
 
1,203

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Structured Finance:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
U.S. RMBS (2)
 
176

 
(111
)
 
8

 
73

Other structured finance
 
23

 
4

 
0

 
27

Structured Finance
 
199

 
(107
)
 
8

 
100

Total
 
$
1,292

 
$
15

 
$
(4
)
 
$
1,303



Rollforward of Net Expected Loss and LAE to be Paid(1) for the Year Ended December 31, 2017
 
 
Net Expected
Loss to be
Paid 
(Recovered)
as of
December 31, 2016
 
Net Expected
Loss to be Paid 
(Recovered)
on MBIA UK as of January 10, 2017
 
Economic Loss Development During 2017
 
(Paid) Recovered Losses During 2017
 
Net Expected
Loss to be
Paid 
(Recovered)
as of
December 31, 2017
Public Finance:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
U.S. public finance
 
$
871

 
$

 
$
554

 
$
(268
)
 
$
1,157

Non-U.S public finance
 
33

 
13

 
(5
)
 
5

 
46

Public Finance
 
904

 
13

 
549

 
(263
)
 
1,203

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Structured Finance:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
U.S. RMBS (2)
 
206

 

 
(181
)
 
48

 
73

Other structured finance
 
88

 
8

 
(55
)
 
(14
)
 
27

Structured Finance
 
294

 
8

 
(236
)
 
34

 
100

Total
 
$
1,198

 
$
21

 
$
313

 
$
(229
)
 
$
1,303


1)
Includes expected loss to be paid, economic loss development and paid (recovered) losses for all contracts (i.e. those accounted for as insurance, credit derivatives and FG VIEs).

2)
Includes future net representations and warranties (R&W) receivable of $117 million as of December 31, 2017, and payables of $6 million as of December 31, 2016 and $3 million as of September 30, 2017.

33



Assured Guaranty Ltd.
Loss Measures
As of December 31, 2017
(dollars in millions)


 
 
 Total Net Par Outstanding for BIG Transactions
 
 
4Q-17
 Loss and
LAE
 
4Q-17 Loss and LAE included in non-GAAP Operating Income (1)
 
4Q-17 Effect of FG VIE Consolidation (2)
 
 
2017
 Loss and
LAE
 
2017 Loss and LAE included in non-GAAP Operating Income (1)
 
2017
Effect of FG VIE Consolidation (2)
Public finance:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
U.S. public finance
 
$
7,140

 
 
$
129

 
$
127

 
$

 
 
$
553

 
$
553

 
$

Non-U.S public finance
 
1,731

 
 
(1
)
 
(1
)
 

 
 
(4
)
 
(4
)
 

Public finance
 
8,871

 
 
128

 
126

 

 
 
549

 
549

 

Structured finance:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
U.S. RMBS
 
2,761

 
 
(94
)
 
(111
)
 
(2
)
 
 
(113
)
 
(149
)
 
(7
)
Other structured finance
 
606

 
 
0

 
1

 

 
 
(48
)
 
(55
)
 

Structured finance
 
3,367

 
 
(94
)
 
(110
)
 
(2
)
 
 
(161
)
 
(204
)
 
(7
)
Total
 
$
12,238

 
 
$
34

 
$
16

 
$
(2
)
 
 
$
388

 
$
345

 
$
(7
)

1)
Non-GAAP operating income includes financial guaranty insurance and credit derivatives.

2)
The "Effect of FG VIE Consolidation" column represents amounts included in the consolidated statements of operations and non-GAAP operating income that the Company removes to arrive at the core financial measures that management uses in certain of its compensation calculations and its decision making process. Please refer to the explanation of Non-GAAP Financial Measures set forth at the end of this Financial Supplement.


Please refer to the Glossary for an explanation of the presentation of net par outstanding and of the various sectors.


34



Assured Guaranty Ltd.
Summary of Financial and Statistical Data
(dollars in millions, except per share amounts)
 
 
Year Ended December 31,
 
 
2017
 
2016
 
2015
 
2014
 
2013
GAAP Summary Income Statement Data
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net earned premiums
 
$
690

 
$
864

 
$
766

 
$
570

 
$
752

 
Net investment income
 
418

 
408

 
423

 
403

 
393

 
Realized gains and other settlements on credit derivatives
 
(10
)
 
29

 
(18
)
 
23

 
(42
)
 
Total expenses
 
748

 
660

 
776

 
463

 
466

 
Income (loss) before income taxes
 
991

 
1,017

 
1,431

 
1,531

 
1,142

 
Net income (loss)
 
730

 
881

 
1,056

 
1,088

 
808

 
Net income (loss) per diluted share
 
5.96

 
6.56

 
7.08

 
6.26

 
4.30

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
GAAP Summary Balance Sheet Data
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Total investments and cash
 
$
11,539

 
$
11,103

 
$
11,358

 
$
11,459

 
$
10,969

 
Total assets
 
14,433

 
14,151

 
14,544

 
14,919

 
16,285

 
Unearned premium reserve
 
3,475

 
3,511

 
3,996

 
4,261

 
4,595

 
Loss and LAE reserve
 
1,444

 
1,127

 
1,067

 
799

 
592

 
Long-term debt
 
1,292

 
1,306

 
1,300

 
1,297

 
814

 
Shareholders’ equity
 
6,839

 
6,504

 
6,063

 
5,758

 
5,115

 
Shareholders’ equity per share
 
58.95

 
50.82

 
43.96

 
36.37

 
28.07

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Other Financial Information (GAAP Basis)
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net debt service outstanding (end of period)
 
$
401,118

 
$
437,535

 
$
536,341

 
$
609,622

 
$
690,535

 
Gross debt service outstanding (end of period)
 
408,492

 
455,000

 
559,470

 
646,722

 
737,380

 
Net par outstanding (end of period)
 
264,952

 
296,318

 
358,571

 
403,729

 
459,107

 
Gross par outstanding (end of period)
 
269,386

 
307,474

 
373,192

 
426,705

 
487,895

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Other Financial Information (Statutory Basis)(1)
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net debt service outstanding (end of period)
 
$
373,340

 
$
401,004

 
$
502,331

 
$
583,598

 
$
663,797

 
Gross debt service outstanding (end of period)
 
380,478

 
417,072

 
524,104

 
619,475

 
709,000

 
Net par outstanding (end of period)
 
239,003

 
262,468

 
327,306

 
379,714

 
434,597

 
Gross par outstanding (end of period)
 
243,217

 
272,286

 
340,662

 
401,552

 
461,845

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Claims-paying resources
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Policyholders' surplus
 
$
5,211

 
$
5,036

 
$
4,550

 
$
4,142

 
$
3,202

 
Contingency reserve
 
1,750

 
2,008

 
2,263

 
2,330

 
2,934

 
Qualified statutory capital
 
6,961

 
7,044

 
6,813

 
6,472

 
6,136

 
Unearned premium reserve
 
2,674

 
2,509

 
3,045

 
3,299

 
3,545

 
Loss and LAE reserves
 
1,092

 
888

 
1,043

 
852

 
773

 
Total policyholders' surplus and reserves
 
10,727

 
10,441

 
10,901

 
10,623

 
10,454

 
Present value of installment premium
 
445

 
500

 
645

 
716

 
858

 
CCS and standby line of credit
 
400

 
400

 
400

 
400

 
400

 
Excess of loss reinsurance facility
 
180

 
360

 
360

 
450

 
435

 
Total claims-paying resources
 
$
11,752

 
$
11,701

 
$
12,306

 
$
12,189

 
$
12,147

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Ratios:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net par outstanding to qualified statutory capital
 
34
:1
 
37:1

 
48
:1
 
59
:1
 
71
:1
 
 
Capital ratio(2)
 
54
:1
 
57:1

 
74
:1
 
90
:1
 
108
:1
 
 
Financial resources ratio(2)
 
32
:1
 
34:1

 
41
:1
 
48
:1
 
55
:1
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Par and Debt Service Written
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Gross debt service written:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Public finance - U.S.
 
$
26,988

 
$
25,423

 
$
25,832

 
$
20,804

 
$
15,559

 
 
Public finance - non-U.S.
 
2,811

 
848

 
2,054

 
233

 
674

 
 
Structured finance - U.S.
 
500

 
1,143

 
355

 
423

 
297

 
 
Structured finance - non-U.S.
 
202

 
30

 
69

 
387

 

 
Total gross debt service written
 
$
30,501

 
$
27,444

 
$
28,310

 
$
21,847

 
$
16,530

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net debt service written
 
$
30,476

 
$
27,444

 
$
28,310

 
$
21,847

 
$
16,497

 
Net par written
 
17,962

 
17,854

 
17,336

 
13,171

 
9,331

 
Gross par written
 
18,024

 
17,854

 
17,336

 
13,171

 
9,350

1)
Statutory amounts prepared on a consolidated basis. The National Association of Insurance Commissioners Annual Statements for U.S. Domiciled Insurance Subsidiaries are prepared on a stand-alone basis.
2)
See page 9 for additional detail on claims-paying resources.

Please refer to the explanation of Non-GAAP Financial Measures set forth at the end of this Financial Supplement.
Please refer to the Glossary for an explanation of the presentation of net debt service and net par outstanding and of the various sectors.

35



Assured Guaranty Ltd.
Summary of GAAP to Non-GAAP Reconciliations(1) (1 of 2)
(dollars in millions, except per share amounts)

 
 
Year Ended December 31,
 
2017
 
2016
 
2015
 
2014
 
2013
Total GWP
 
$
307

 
$
154

 
$
181

 
$
104

 
$
123

Less: Installment GWP and other GAAP adjustments (2)
 
99

 
(10
)
 
55

 
(22
)
 
8

Upfront GWP
 
208

 
164

 
126

 
126

 
115

Plus: Installment premium PVP
 
81

 
50

 
53

 
42

 
26

Total PVP
 
$
289

 
$
214

 
$
179

 
$
168

 
$
141

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
PVP:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Public finance - U.S.
 
$
196

 
$
161

 
$
124

 
$
128

 
$
116

Public finance - non-U.S.
 
66

 
25

 
27

 
7

 
18

Structured finance - U.S.
 
12

 
27

 
22

 
24

 
7

Structured finance - non-U.S.
 
15

 
1

 
6

 
9

 

Total PVP
 
$
289

 
$
214

 
$
179

 
$
168

 
$
141

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Non-GAAP operating income reconciliation:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income (loss)
 
$
730

 
$
881

 
$
1,056

 
$
1,088

 
$
808

Less pre-tax adjustments:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Realized gains (losses) on investments
 
40

 
(30
)
 
(27
)
 
(56
)
 
56

Non-credit impairment unrealized fair value gains (losses) on credit derivatives
 
43

 
36

 
505

 
687

 
(49
)
Fair value gains (losses) on CCS
 
(2
)
 
0

 
27

 
(11
)
 
10

Foreign exchange gains (losses) on remeasurement of premiums receivable and loss and LAE reserves
 
57

 
(33
)
 
(15
)
 
(21
)
 
(1
)
Total pre-tax adjustments
 
138

 
(27
)
 
490

 
599

 
16

Less tax effect on pre-tax adjustments
 
(69
)
 
13

 
(144
)
 
(158
)
 
(9
)
Non-GAAP operating income
 
$
661

 
$
895

 
$
710

 
$
647

 
$
801

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Gain (loss) related to FG VIE consolidation included in non-GAAP operating income (net of tax provision of $6, $7, $4, $84 and $102)
 
$
11

 
$
12

 
$
11

 
$
156

 
$
192

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Non-GAAP operating income per diluted share reconciliation:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income (loss) per diluted share
 
$
5.96

 
$
6.56

 
$
7.08

 
$
6.26

 
$
4.30

Less pre-tax adjustments:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Realized gains (losses) on investments
 
0.33

 
(0.23
)
 
(0.18
)
 
(0.32
)
 
0.30

Non-credit impairment unrealized fair value gains (losses) on credit derivatives
 
0.35

 
0.27

 
3.39

 
3.95

 
(0.26
)
Fair value gains (losses) on CCS
 
(0.02
)
 
0.00

 
0.18

 
(0.06
)
 
0.05

Foreign exchange gains (losses) on remeasurement of premiums receivable and loss and LAE reserves
 
0.46

 
(0.25
)
 
(0.10
)
 
(0.12
)
 
(0.01
)
Total pre-tax adjustments
 
1.12

 
(0.21
)
 
3.29

 
3.45

 
0.08

Less tax effect on pre-tax adjustments
 
(0.57
)
 
0.09

 
(0.97
)
 
(0.92
)
 
(0.06
)
Non-GAAP operating income per diluted share
 
$
5.41

 
$
6.68

 
$
4.76

 
$
3.73

 
$
4.28

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Gain (loss) related to FG VIE consolidation included in non-GAAP operating income per diluted share
 
$
0.10

 
$
0.10

 
$
0.07

 
$
0.90

 
$
1.03

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 

1)
Please refer to the explanation of Non-GAAP Financial Measures set forth at the end of this Financial Supplement.

2)
Includes present value of new business on installment policies discounted at the prescribed GAAP discount rates, GWP adjustments on existing installment policies due to changes in assumptions, any cancellations of assumed reinsurance contracts, and other GAAP adjustments.

36



Assured Guaranty Ltd.
Summary of GAAP to Non-GAAP Reconciliations(1) (2 of 2)
(dollars in millions, except per share amounts)

 
 
As of December 31,
 
2017
 
2016
 
2015
 
2014
 
2013
Adjusted book value reconciliation:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Shareholders' equity
 
$
6,839

 
$
6,504

 
$
6,063

 
$
5,758

 
$
5,115

Less pre-tax adjustments:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Non-credit impairment unrealized fair value gains (losses) on credit derivatives
 
(146
)
 
(189
)
 
(241
)
 
(741
)
 
(1,447
)
Fair value gains (losses) on CCS
 
60

 
62

 
62

 
35

 
46

Unrealized gain (loss) on investment portfolio excluding foreign exchange effect
 
487

 
316

 
373

 
523

 
236

Less taxes
 
(83
)
 
(71
)
 
(56
)
 
45

 
306

Non-GAAP operating shareholders' equity
 
6,521

 
6,386

 
5,925

 
5,896

 
5,974

Pre-tax adjustments:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Less: Deferred acquisition costs
 
101

 
106

 
114

 
121

 
124

Plus: Net present value of estimated net future revenue
 
146

 
136

 
169

 
159

 
214

Plus: Net unearned premium reserve on financial guaranty contracts in excess of expected loss to be expensed
 
2,966

 
2,922

 
3,384

 
3,461

 
3,791

Plus taxes
 
(512
)
 
(832
)
 
(968
)
 
(960
)
 
(1,070
)
Non-GAAP adjusted book value
 
$
9,020

 
$
8,506

 
$
8,396

 
$
8,435

 
$
8,785

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Gain (loss) related to FG VIE consolidation included in non-GAAP operating shareholders' equity (net of tax (provision) benefit of $(2), $4, $11, $20 and $103)
 
$
5

 
$
(7
)
 
$
(21
)
 
$
(37
)
 
$
(190
)
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Gain (loss) related to FG VIE consolidation included in non-GAAP adjusted book value (net of tax benefit of $3, $12, $22, $33, and $134)
 
$
(14
)
 
$
(24
)
 
$
(43
)
 
$
(60
)
 
$
(248
)
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Adjusted book value per share reconciliation:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Shareholders' equity per share
 
$
58.95

 
$
50.82

 
$
43.96

 
$
36.37

 
$
28.07

Less pre-tax adjustments:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Non-credit impairment unrealized fair value gains (losses) on credit derivatives
 
(1.26
)
 
(1.48
)
 
(1.75
)
 
(4.68
)
 
(7.94
)
Fair value gains (losses) on CCS
 
0.52

 
0.48

 
0.45

 
0.22

 
0.25

Unrealized gain (loss) on investment portfolio excluding foreign exchange effect
 
4.20

 
2.47

 
2.71

 
3.30

 
1.29

Less taxes
 
(0.71
)
 
(0.54
)
 
(0.41
)
 
0.29

 
1.68

Non-GAAP operating shareholders' equity per share
 
56.20

 
49.89

 
42.96

 
37.24

 
32.79

Pre-tax adjustments:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Less: Deferred acquisition costs
 
0.87

 
0.83

 
0.83

 
0.76

 
0.68

Plus: Net present value of estimated net future revenue
 
1.26

 
1.07

 
1.23

 
1.00

 
1.17

Plus: Net unearned premium reserve on financial guaranty contracts in excess of expected loss to be expensed
 
25.56

 
22.83

 
24.53

 
21.86

 
20.81

Plus taxes
 
(4.41
)
 
(6.50
)
 
(7.02
)
 
(6.07
)
 
(5.87
)
Non-GAAP adjusted book value per share
 
$
77.74

 
$
66.46

 
$
60.87

 
$
53.27

 
$
48.22

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Gain (loss) related to FG VIE consolidation included in non-GAAP operating shareholders' equity per share
 
$
0.03

 
$
(0.06
)
 
$
(0.15
)
 
$
(0.24
)
 
$
(1.04
)
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Gain (loss) related to FG VIE consolidation included in non-GAAP adjusted book value per share
 
$
(0.12
)
 
$
(0.18
)
 
$
(0.31
)
 
$
(0.39
)
 
$
(1.36
)

1)
Please refer to the explanation of Non-GAAP Financial Measures set forth at the end of this Financial Supplement.


37



Glossary

Net Par Outstanding and Internal Ratings
Net Par Outstanding is insured par exposure, net of reinsurance cessions. Unless otherwise indicated, GAAP net par outstanding amounts exclude amounts as a result of loss mitigation strategies, including securities the Company has purchased for loss mitigation purposes that are held in the investment portfolio.

Internal Rating utilizes the Company’s ratings scale, which is similar to that used by the nationally recognized statistical rating organizations; however, the ratings in the tables may not be the same as ratings assigned by any such rating agency.

Statutory Net Par and Net Debt Service Outstanding. Under statutory accounting, net par and net debt service outstanding would be reduced both when an outstanding issue is legally defeased (i.e., an issuer has legally discharged its obligations with respect to a municipal security by satisfying conditions set forth in defeasance provisions contained in transaction documents and is no longer responsible for the payment of debt service with respect to such obligations) and when such issue is economically defeased (i.e., transaction documents for a municipal security do not contain defeasance provisions but the issuer establishes an escrow account with U.S. government securities in amounts sufficient to pay the refunded bonds when due; the refunded bonds are not considered paid and continue to be outstanding under the transaction documents and the issuer remains responsible to pay debt service when due to the extent monies on deposit in the escrow account are insufficient for such purpose).

Performance Indicators
The performance information described below is obtained from third parties and/or provided by the trustee and may be subject to revision as updated or additional information is obtained:

60+ Day Delinquencies are defined as loans that are greater than 60 days delinquent and all loans that are in foreclosure, bankruptcy or real estate owned divided by current collateral balance.

Average Credit Enhancement is intended to provide a measure of the amount of equity and/or subordinated tranches that are junior in the capital structure to Assured Guaranty’s exposure, expressed as a percentage of the total transaction size, and reflects any reduction of that credit support resulting from defaults or other factors. For transactions where excess spread may be available to absorb certain losses, the amounts shown do not include any benefit from excess spread. The calculation methodologies differ for the various asset classes to reflect differences in transaction structures in order to provide a measure that management believes is comparable across asset classes. Some asset classes may not have subordinated tranches so they are excluded from the weighted averages.

Sectors
Below are brief descriptions of selected types of public and structured finance obligations that the Company insures and reinsures. For a more complete description, please refer to Assured Guaranty Ltd.’s Annual Report on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2017.

Public Finance:
General Obligation Bonds are full faith and credit bonds that are issued by states, their political subdivisions and other municipal issuers, and are supported by the general obligation of the issuer to pay from available funds and by a pledge of the issuer to levy ad valorem taxes in an amount sufficient to provide for the full payment of the bonds.

Tax-Backed Bonds are obligations that are supported by the issuer from specific and discrete sources of taxation. They include tax-backed revenue bonds, general fund obligations and lease revenue bonds. Tax-backed obligations may be secured by a lien on specific pledged tax revenues, such as a gasoline or excise tax, or incrementally from growth in property tax revenue associated with growth in property values. These obligations also include obligations secured by special assessments levied against property owners and often benefit from issuer covenants to enforce collections of such assessments and to foreclose on delinquent properties. Lease revenue bonds typically are general fund obligations of a municipality or other governmental authority that are subject to annual appropriation or abatement; projects financed and subject to such lease payments ordinarily include real estate or equipment serving an essential public purpose. Bonds in this category also include moral obligations of municipalities or governmental authorities.

Municipal Utility Bonds are obligations of all forms of municipal utilities, including electric, water and sewer utilities and resource recovery revenue bonds. These utilities may be organized in various forms, including municipal enterprise systems, authorities or joint action agencies.

Transportation Bonds include a wide variety of revenue-supported bonds, such as bonds for airports, ports, tunnels, municipal parking facilities, toll roads and toll bridges.

Healthcare Bonds are obligations of healthcare facilities, including community-based hospitals and systems, as well as of health maintenance organizations and long-term care facilities.

Higher Education Bonds are obligations secured by revenue collected by either public or private secondary schools, colleges and universities. Such revenue can encompass all of an institution’s revenue, including tuition and fees, or in other cases, can be specifically restricted to certain auxiliary sources of revenue.


38



Glossary (continued)

Sectors (continued)
Infrastructure Bonds include obligations issued by a variety of entities engaged in the financing of infrastructure projects, such as roads, airports, ports, social infrastructure and other physical assets delivering essential services supported by long-term concession arrangements with a public sector entity.

Housing Revenue Bonds are obligations relating to both single and multi-family housing, issued by states and localities, supported by cash flow and, in some cases, insurance from entities such as the Federal Housing Administration.

Investor-Owned Utility Bonds are obligations primarily backed by investor-owned utilities, first mortgage bond obligations of for-profit electric or water utilities providing retail, industrial and commercial service, and also include sale-leaseback obligation bonds supported by such entities.

Regulated Utility Obligations are issued by government-regulated providers of essential services and commodities, including electric, water and gas utilities. The majority of the Company's international regulated utility business is conducted in the United Kingdom.

Pooled Infrastructure Obligations are synthetic asset-backed obligations that take the form of credit default swap obligations or credit-linked notes that reference either infrastructure finance obligations or a pool of such obligations, with a defined deductible to cover credit risks associated with the referenced obligations.

Other Public Finance primarily includes government insured student loans, government-sponsored project finance and structured municipal transactions, which include excess of loss reinsurance on portfolios of municipal credits.

Structured Finance:
Pooled Corporate Obligations are securities primarily backed by various types of corporate debt obligations, such as secured or unsecured bonds, bank loans or loan participations and trust preferred securities (TruPS). These securities are often issued in ‘‘tranches,’’ with subordinated tranches providing credit support to the more senior tranches. The Company’s financial guaranty exposures generally are to the more senior tranches of these issues.

Residential Mortgage-Backed Securities (RMBS) are obligations backed by closed-end and open-end first and second lien mortgage loans on one-to-four family residential properties, including condominiums and cooperative apartments. First lien mortgage loan products in these transactions include fixed rate, adjustable rate (ARM) and option adjustable-rate (Option ARM) mortgages. The credit quality of borrowers covers a broad range, including ‘‘prime’’, ‘‘subprime’’ and ‘‘Alt-A’’. A prime borrower is generally defined as one with strong risk characteristics as measured by factors such as payment history, credit score, and debt-to-income ratio. A subprime borrower is a borrower with higher risk characteristics, usually as determined by credit score and/or credit history. An Alt-A borrower is generally defined as a prime quality borrower that lacks certain ancillary characteristics, such as fully documented income.

Additional insured obligations within RMBS include Home Equity Lines of Credit (HELOCs), which refers to a type of residential mortgage-backed transaction backed by second-lien loan collateral consisting of home equity lines of credit. U.S. Prime First Lien is a type of residential mortgage-backed securities transaction backed primarily by prime first-lien loan collateral plus an insignificant amount of other miscellaneous RMBS transactions.

Insurance Securitization Obligations are obligations secured by the future earnings from pools of various types of insurance/reinsurance policies and income produced by invested assets.

CBOs/CLOs (collateralized bond obligations and collateralized loan obligations) are asset-backed securities largely backed by non-investment grade/high yield collateral.

Financial Products Business is how the Company refers to the guaranteed investment contracts (GICs) portion of a line of business previously conducted by Assured Guaranty Municipal Holdings Inc. (AGMH) that the Company did not acquire when it purchased AGMH in 2009 from Dexia SA and that is being run off. That line of business was comprised of AGMH's GICs business, its medium term notes business and the equity payment agreements associated with AGMH's leveraged lease business. Assured Guaranty is indemnified by Dexia SA and certain of its affiliates against loss from the former Financial Products Business.

Consumer Receivables Securities are obligations backed by non-mortgage consumer receivables, such as student loans, automobile loans and leases, manufactured home loans and other consumer receivables.

Commercial Receivables Securities are obligations backed by equipment loans or leases, aircraft and aircraft engine financings, business loans and trade receivables. Credit support is derived from the cash flows generated by the underlying obligations, as well as property or equipment values as applicable.

Other Structured Finance Obligations are obligations backed by assets not generally described in any of the other described categories.


39



Non-GAAP Financial Measures
 
To reflect the key financial measures that management analyzes in evaluating the Company’s operations and progress towards long-term goals, the Company discloses both financial measures determined in accordance with GAAP and financial measures not determined in accordance with GAAP (non-GAAP financial measures).

Financial measures identified as non-GAAP should not be considered substitutes for GAAP financial measures. The primary limitation of non-GAAP financial measures is the potential lack of comparability to financial measures of other companies, whose definitions of non-GAAP financial measures may differ from those of the Company.
 
By disclosing non-GAAP financial measures, the Company gives investors, analysts and financial news reporters access to information that management and the Board of Directors review internally. The Company believes its presentation of non-GAAP financial measures, along with the effect of FG VIE consolidation, provides information that is necessary for analysts to calculate their estimates of Assured Guaranty’s financial results in their research reports on Assured Guaranty and for investors, analysts and the financial news media to evaluate Assured Guaranty’s financial results.

GAAP requires the Company to consolidate certain VIEs that have issued debt obligations insured by the Company. However, the Company does not own such VIEs and its exposure is limited to its obligation under its financial guaranty insurance contract. Management and the Board of Directors use non-GAAP financial measures adjusted to remove FG VIE consolidation (which the Company refers to as its core financial measures), as well as GAAP financial measures and other factors, to evaluate the Company’s results of operations, financial condition and progress towards long-term goals. The Company uses these core financial measures in its decision making process and in its calculation of certain components of management compensation. Wherever possible, the Company has separately disclosed the effect of FG VIE consolidation.

Many investors, analysts and financial news reporters use non-GAAP operating shareholders’ equity, adjusted to remove the effect of FG VIE consolidation, as the principal financial measure for valuing AGL’s current share price or projected share price and also as the basis of their decision to recommend, buy or sell AGL’s common shares. Many of the Company’s fixed income investors also use this measure to evaluate the Company’s capital adequacy.

Many investors, analysts and financial news reporters also use non-GAAP adjusted book value, adjusted to remove the effect of FG VIE consolidation, to evaluate AGL’s share price and as the basis of their decision to recommend, buy or sell the AGL common shares. Non-GAAP operating income adjusted for the effect of FG VIE consolidation enables investors and analysts to evaluate the Company’s financial results in comparison with the consensus analyst estimates distributed publicly by financial databases.

The core financial measures that the Company uses to help determine compensation are: (1) non-GAAP operating income, adjusted to remove the effect of FG VIE consolidation, (2) non-GAAP operating shareholders' equity, adjusted to remove the effect of FG VIE consolidation, (3) growth in non-GAAP adjusted book value per share, adjusted to remove the effect of FG VIE consolidation, and (4) PVP.

The following paragraphs define each non-GAAP financial measure disclosed by the Company and describe why it is useful. To the extent there is a directly comparable GAAP financial measure, a reconciliation of the non-GAAP financial measure and the most directly comparable GAAP financial measure is presented below.

Non-GAAP operating income: Management believes that non-GAAP operating income is a useful measure because it clarifies the understanding of the underwriting results and financial condition of the Company and presents the results of operations of the Company excluding the fair value adjustments on credit derivatives and CCS that are not expected to result in economic gain or loss, as well as other adjustments described below. Management adjusts non-GAAP operating income further by removing FG VIE consolidation to arrive at its core operating income measure. Non-GAAP operating income is defined as net income (loss) attributable to AGL, as reported under GAAP, adjusted for the following:

1)    Elimination of realized gains (losses) on the Company’s investments, except for gains and losses on securities classified as trading. The timing of realized gains and losses, which depends largely on market credit cycles, can vary considerably across periods. The timing of sales is largely subject to the Company’s discretion and influenced by market opportunities, as well as the Company’s tax and capital profile.

2)    Elimination of non-credit-impairment unrealized fair value gains (losses) on credit derivatives, which is the amount of unrealized fair value gains (losses) in excess of the present value of the expected estimated economic credit losses, and non-economic payments. Such fair value adjustments are heavily affected by, and in part fluctuate with, changes in market interest rates, the Company's credit spreads, and other market factors and are not expected to result in an economic gain or loss.
 
3)    Elimination of fair value gains (losses) on the Company’s CCS. Such amounts are affected by changes in market interest rates, the Company's credit spreads, price indications on the Company's publicly traded debt, and other market factors and are not expected to result in an economic gain or loss.
 

40



Non-GAAP Financial Measures (continued)

4)    Elimination of foreign exchange gains (losses) on remeasurement of net premium receivables and loss and LAE reserves. Long-dated receivables and loss and LAE reserves represent the present value of future contractual or expected cash flows. Therefore, the current period’s foreign exchange remeasurement gains (losses) are not necessarily indicative of the total foreign exchange gains (losses) that the Company will ultimately recognize.

5)    Elimination of the tax effects related to the above adjustments, which are determined by applying the statutory tax rate in each of the jurisdictions that generate these adjustments.

Non-GAAP Operating Shareholders’ Equity and Non-GAAP Adjusted Book Value: Management believes that non-GAAP operating shareholders’ equity is a useful measure because it presents the equity of the Company excluding the fair value adjustments on investments, credit derivatives and CCS, that are not expected to result in economic gain or loss, along with other adjustments described below. Management adjusts non-GAAP operating shareholders’ equity further by removing FG VIE consolidation to arrive at its core operating shareholders' equity and core adjusted book value.

Non-GAAP operating shareholders’ equity is the basis of the calculation of non-GAAP adjusted book value (see below). Non-GAAP operating shareholders’ equity is defined as shareholders’ equity attributable to AGL, as reported under GAAP, adjusted for the following:

1)    Elimination of non-credit-impairment unrealized fair value gains (losses) on credit derivatives, which is the amount of unrealized fair value gains (losses) in excess of the present value of the expected estimated economic credit losses, and non-economic payments. Such fair value adjustments are heavily affected by, and in part fluctuate with, changes in market interest rates, credit spreads and other market factors and are not expected to result in an economic gain or loss.
 
2)    Elimination of fair value gains (losses) on the Company’s CCS. Such amounts are affected by changes in market interest rates, the Company's credit spreads, price indications on the Company's publicly traded debt, and other market factors and are not expected to result in an economic gain or loss.
 
3)    Elimination of unrealized gains (losses) on the Company’s investments that are recorded as a component of AOCI (excluding foreign exchange remeasurement). The AOCI component of the fair value adjustment on the investment portfolio is not deemed economic because the Company generally holds these investments to maturity and therefore should not recognize an economic gain or loss.

 4) Elimination of the tax effects related to the above adjustments, which are determined by applying the statutory tax rate in each of the jurisdictions that generate these adjustments.

Management uses non-GAAP adjusted book value, adjusted for FG VIE consolidation, to measure the intrinsic value of the Company, excluding franchise value. Growth in non-GAAP adjusted book value per share, adjusted for FG VIE consolidation (core adjusted book value), is one of the key financial measures used in determining the amount of certain long-term compensation elements to management and employees and used by rating agencies and investors. Management believes that non-GAAP adjusted book value is a useful measure because it enables an evaluation of the Company’s in-force premiums and revenues net of expected losses. Non-GAAP adjusted book value is non-GAAP operating shareholders’ equity, as defined above, further adjusted for the following:
 
1)    Elimination of deferred acquisition costs, net. These amounts represent net deferred expenses that have already been paid or accrued and will be expensed in future accounting periods.
 
2)    Addition of the net present value of estimated net future revenue on non-financial guaranty contracts. See below.
 
3)    Addition of the deferred premium revenue on financial guaranty contracts in excess of expected loss to be expensed, net of reinsurance. This amount represents the expected future net earned premiums, net of expected losses to be expensed, which are not reflected in GAAP equity.

4) Elimination of the tax asset or liability related to the above adjustments, which are determined by applying the statutory tax rate in each of the jurisdictions that generate these adjustments.

The unearned premiums and revenues included in non-GAAP adjusted book value will be earned in future periods, but actual earnings may differ materially from the estimated amounts used in determining current non-GAAP adjusted book value due to changes in foreign exchange rates, prepayment speeds, terminations, credit defaults and other factors.







41



Non-GAAP Financial Measures (continued)

Non-GAAP Operating Return on Equity (Non-GAAP Operating ROE): Non-GAAP operating ROE represents non-GAAP operating income for a specified period divided by the average of non-GAAP operating shareholders’ equity at the beginning and the end of that period. Management believes that non-GAAP operating ROE is a useful measure to evaluate the Company’s return on invested capital. Many investors, analysts and members of the financial news media use non-GAAP operating ROE, adjusted for FG VIE consolidation, to evaluate AGL’s share price and as the basis of their decision to recommend, buy or sell the AGL common shares. Quarterly and year-to-date non-GAAP operating ROE are calculated on an annualized basis. Non-GAAP operating ROE, adjusted for FG VIE consolidation, is one of the key management financial measures used in determining the amount of certain long-term compensation to management and employees and used by rating agencies and investors.

Net Present Value of Estimated Net Future Revenue: Management believes that this amount is a useful measure because it enables an evaluation of the value of future estimated revenue for non-financial guaranty insurance contracts. There is no corresponding GAAP financial measure. This amount represents the present value of estimated future revenue from the Company’s non-financial guaranty insurance contracts, net of reinsurance, ceding commissions and premium taxes, for contracts without expected economic losses, and is discounted at 6%. Estimated net future revenue may change from period to period due to changes in foreign exchange rates, prepayment speeds, terminations, credit defaults or other factors that affect par outstanding or the ultimate maturity of an obligation.

PVP or Present Value of New Business Production: Management believes that PVP is a useful measure because it enables the evaluation of the value of new business production for the Company by taking into account the value of estimated future installment premiums on all new contracts underwritten in a reporting period as well as premium supplements and additional installment premium on existing contracts as to which the issuer has the right to call the insured obligation but has not exercised such right, whether in insurance or credit derivative contract form, which management believes GAAP gross written premiums and the net credit derivative premiums received and receivable portion of net realized gains and other settlements on credit derivatives (Credit Derivative Realized Gains (Losses)) do not adequately measure. PVP in respect of contracts written in a specified period is defined as gross upfront and installment premiums received and the present value of gross estimated future installment premiums, discounted, in each case, at 6%. Under GAAP, financial guaranty installment premiums are discounted at a risk free rate. Additionally, under GAAP, management records future installment premiums on financial guaranty insurance contracts covering non-homogeneous pools of assets based on the contractual term of the transaction, whereas for PVP purposes, management records an estimate of the future installment premiums the Company expects to receive, which may be based upon a shorter period of time than the contractual term of the transaction. Actual future earned or written premiums and Credit Derivative Realized Gains (Losses) may differ from PVP due to factors including, but not limited to, changes in foreign exchange rates, prepayment speeds, terminations, credit defaults, or other factors that affect par outstanding or the ultimate maturity of an obligation. 


42

agllogo.jpg







Assured Guaranty Ltd.                        
30 Woodbourne Avenue
Hamilton HM 08
Bermuda
(441) 279-5705
www.assuredguaranty.com


 



Contacts:

Equity and Fixed Income Investors:
Robert Tucker
Senior Managing Director, Investor Relations and Corporate Communications
(212) 339-0861
rtucker@agltd.com

Michael Walker
Managing Director, Fixed Income Investor Relations
(212) 261-5575
mwalker@agltd.com

Andre Thomas
Managing Director, Equity Investor Relations
(212) 339-3551
athomas@agltd.com

Media:
Ashweeta Durani
Vice President, Corporate Communications
(212) 408-6042
adurani@agltd.com














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