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Contracts Accounted for as Insurance
12 Months Ended
Dec. 31, 2016
Insurance [Abstract]  
Contracts Accounted for as Insurance
Contracts Accounted for as Insurance

Financial Guaranty Insurance Premiums

The portfolio of outstanding exposures discussed in Note 4, Outstanding Exposure, includes financial guaranty contracts that meet the definition of insurance contracts as well as those that meet the definition of a derivative under GAAP, as well as those that are accounted for as consolidated FG VIEs. Amounts presented in this note relate to financial guaranty insurance contracts, unless otherwise noted. See Note 8, Contracts Accounted for as Credit Derivatives for amounts that relate to CDS and Note 9, Consolidated Variable Interest Entities for amounts that relate to FG VIEs.

Accounting Policies

Accounting for financial guaranty contracts that meet the scope exception under derivative accounting guidance are subject to industry specific guidance for financial guaranty insurance. The accounting for contracts that fall under the financial guaranty insurance definition are consistent whether the contract was written on a direct basis, assumed from another financial guarantor under a reinsurance treaty, ceded to another insurer under a reinsurance treaty, or acquired in a business combination.

Premiums receivable comprise the present value of contractual or expected future premium collections discounted using the risk-free rate. Unearned premium reserve represents deferred premium revenue, less claim payments made and recoveries received that have not yet been recognized in the statement of operations (contra-paid). The following discussion relates to the deferred premium revenue component of the unearned premium reserve, while the contra-paid is discussed below under "Financial Guaranty Insurance Losses."

The amount of deferred premium revenue at contract inception is determined as follows:

For premiums received upfront on financial guaranty insurance contracts that were originally underwritten by the Company, deferred premium revenue is equal to the amount of cash received. Upfront premiums typically relate to public finance transactions.

For premiums received in installments on financial guaranty insurance contracts that were originally underwritten by the Company, deferred premium revenue is the present value of either (1) contractual premiums due or (2) in cases where the underlying collateral is comprised of homogeneous pools of assets, the expected premiums to be collected over the life of the contract. To be considered a homogeneous pool of assets, prepayments must be contractually prepayable, the amount of prepayments must be probable, and the timing and amount of prepayments must be reasonably estimable. When the Company adjusts prepayment assumptions or expected premium collections, an adjustment is recorded to the deferred premium revenue, with a corresponding adjustment to the premium receivable, and prospective changes are recognized in premium revenues. Premiums receivable are discounted at the risk-free rate at inception and such discount rate is updated only when changes to prepayment assumptions are made that change the expected date of final maturity. Installment premiums typically relate to structured finance transactions, where the insurance premium rate is determined at the inception of the contract but the insured par is subject to prepayment throughout the life of the transaction.

For financial guaranty insurance contracts acquired in a business combination, deferred premium revenue is equal to the fair value of the Company's stand-ready obligation portion of the insurance contract at the date of acquisition based on what a hypothetical similarly rated financial guaranty insurer would have charged for the contract at that date and not the actual cash flows under the insurance contract. The amount of deferred premium revenue may differ significantly from cash collections due primarily to fair value adjustments recorded in connection with a business combination.

The Company recognizes deferred premium revenue as earned premium over the contractual period or expected period of the contract in proportion to the amount of insurance protection provided. As premium revenue is recognized, a corresponding decrease to the deferred premium revenue is recorded. The amount of insurance protection provided is a function of the insured principal amount outstanding. Accordingly, the proportionate share of premium revenue recognized in a given reporting period is a constant rate calculated based on the relationship between the insured principal amounts outstanding in the reporting period compared with the sum of each of the insured principal amounts outstanding for all periods. When an insured financial obligation is retired before its maturity, the financial guaranty insurance contract is extinguished. Any nonrefundable deferred premium revenue related to that contract is accelerated and recognized as premium revenue. When a premium receivable balance is deemed uncollectible, it is written off to bad debt expense.

For reinsurance assumed contracts, earned premiums reported in the Company's consolidated statements of operations are calculated based upon data received from ceding companies, however, some ceding companies report premium data between 30 and 90 days after the end of the reporting period. The Company estimates earned premiums for the lag period.  Differences between such estimates and actual amounts are recorded in the period in which the actual amounts are determined. When installment premiums are related to reinsurance assumed contracts, the Company assesses the credit quality and liquidity of the ceding companies and the impact of any potential regulatory constraints to determine the collectability of such amounts.

Deferred premium revenue ceded to reinsurers (ceded unearned premium reserve) is recorded as an asset. Direct, assumed and ceded earned premium revenue are presented together as net earned premiums in the statement of operations. Net earned premiums comprise the following:

Net Earned Premiums
 
 
Year Ended December 31,
 
2016
 
2015
 
2014
 
(in millions)
Scheduled net earned premiums
$
381

 
$
416

 
$
415

Accelerations
 
 
 
 
 
Refundings
390

 
294

 
133

Terminations
79

 
37

 
3

Total Accelerations
469

 
331

 
136

Accretion of discount on net premiums receivable
14

 
17

 
16

  Financial guaranty insurance net earned premiums
864

 
764

 
567

Other
0

 
2

 
3

  Net earned premiums (1)
$
864

 
$
766

 
$
570

 ___________________
(1)
Excludes $16 million, $21 million and $32 million for the year ended December 31, 2016, 2015 and 2014, respectively, related to consolidated FG VIEs.

Components of
Unearned Premium Reserve
 
 
As of December 31, 2016
 
As of December 31, 2015
 
Gross
 
Ceded
 
Net(1)
 
Gross
 
Ceded
 
Net(1)
 
(in millions)
Deferred premium revenue
$
3,548

 
$
206

 
$
3,342

 
$
4,008

 
$
238

 
$
3,770

Contra-paid(2)
(37
)
 
0

 
(37
)
 
(12
)
 
(6
)
 
(6
)
Unearned premium reserve
$
3,511

 
$
206

 
$
3,305

 
$
3,996

 
$
232

 
$
3,764

 ____________________
(1)
Excludes $90 million and $110 million of deferred premium revenue and $25 million and $30 million of contra-paid related to FG VIEs as of December 31, 2016 and December 31, 2015, respectively.

(2)
See "Financial Guaranty Insurance Losses – Insurance Contracts' Loss Information" below for an explanation of "contra-paid".
 

Gross Premium Receivable,
Net of Commissions on Assumed Business
Roll Forward

 
Year Ended December 31,
 
2016
 
2015
 
2014
 
(in millions)
Beginning of period, December 31
$
693

 
$
729

 
$
876

Premiums receivable from acquisitions (see Note 2)
18

 
2

 

Gross written premiums on new business, net of commissions on assumed business
193

 
198

 
171

Gross premiums received, net of commissions on assumed business
(258
)
 
(206
)
 
(230
)
Adjustments:
 
 
 
 
 
Changes in the expected term
(38
)
 
(19
)
 
(66
)
Accretion of discount, net of commissions on assumed business
9

 
18

 
10

Foreign exchange translation
(41
)
 
(25
)
 
(31
)
Consolidation/deconsolidation of FG VIEs
0

 
(4
)
 
(1
)
End of period, December 31 (1)
$
576

 
$
693

 
$
729

____________________
(1)
Excludes $11 million, $17 million and $19 million as of December 31, 2016 , 2015 and 2014, respectively, related to consolidated FG VIEs.
 
Foreign exchange translation relates to installment premiums receivable denominated in currencies other than the U.S. dollar. Approximately 50% and 52% of installment premiums at December 31, 2016 and 2015, respectively, are denominated in currencies other than the U.S. dollar, primarily the euro and pound sterling.
 
The timing and cumulative amount of actual collections may differ from expected collections in the tables below due to factors such as foreign exchange rate fluctuations, counterparty collectability issues, accelerations, commutations and changes in expected lives.

Expected Collections of
Financial Guaranty Insurance Gross Premiums Receivable,
Net of Commissions on Assumed Business
(Undiscounted)

 
As of December 31, 2016
 
(in millions)
2017 (January 1 – March 31)
$
27

2017 (April 1 – June 30)
21

2017 (July 1 – September 30)
14

2017 (October 1 – December 31)
16

2018
58

2019
52

2020
50

2021
49

2022-2026
179

2027-2031
120

2032-2036
80

After 2036
65

Total(1)
$
731

____________________
(1)
Excludes expected cash collections on FG VIEs of $13 million.


Scheduled Financial Guaranty Insurance Net Earned Premiums
 
 
As of December 31, 2016
 
(in millions)
2017 (January 1 – March 31)
$
89

2017 (April 1 – June 30)
87

2017 (July 1 – September 30)
82

2017 (October 1 – December 31)
80

Subtotal 2017
338

2018
304

2019
268

2020
243

2021
223

2022-2026
856

2027-2031
545

2032-2036
315

After 2036
250

Net deferred premium revenue(1)
3,342

Future accretion
145

Total future net earned premiums
$
3,487

 ____________________
(1)
Excludes scheduled net earned premiums on consolidated FG VIEs of $90 million.


Selected Information for Financial Guaranty Insurance
Policies Paid in Installments

 
As of
December 31, 2016
 
As of
December 31, 2015
 
(dollars in millions)
Premiums receivable, net of commission payable
$
576

 
$
693

Gross deferred premium revenue
1,041

 
1,240

Weighted-average risk-free rate used to discount premiums
3.0
%
 
3.1
%
Weighted-average period of premiums receivable (in years)
9.1

 
9.4




Financial Guaranty Insurance Acquisition Costs

Accounting Policy

Policy acquisition costs that are directly related and essential to successful insurance contract acquisition and ceding commission income on ceded reinsurance contracts are deferred for contracts accounted for as insurance, and reported net. Amortization of deferred policy acquisition costs includes the accretion of discount on ceding commission income and expense.

Capitalized policy acquisition costs include expenses such as ceding commissions expense on assumed reinsurance contracts and the cost of underwriting personnel attributable to successful underwriting efforts. Ceding commission expense on assumed reinsurance contracts and ceding commission income on ceded reinsurance contracts that are associated with premiums received in installments are calculated at their contractually defined commission rates, discounted consistent with premiums receivable for all future periods, and included in deferred acquisition costs (DAC), with a corresponding offset to net premiums receivable or reinsurance balances payable. Management uses its judgment in determining the type and amount of costs to be deferred. The Company conducts an annual study to determine which operating costs qualify for deferral. Costs incurred for soliciting potential customers, market research, training, administration, unsuccessful acquisition efforts, and product development as well as all overhead type costs are charged to expense as incurred. DAC is amortized in proportion to net earned premiums. When an insured obligation is retired early, the remaining related DAC, net of ceding commission income is recognized at that time.
 
Expected losses and LAE, investment income, and the remaining costs of servicing the insured or reinsured business, are considered in determining the recoverability of DAC.
  
Rollforward of
Deferred Acquisition Costs

 
Year Ended December 31,
 
2016
 
2015
 
2014
 
(in millions)
Beginning of period
$
114

 
$
121

 
$
124

DAC adjustments from acquisitions (see Note 2)
0

 
1

 

Costs deferred during the period:
 
 
 
 
 
Commissions on assumed and ceded business
(2
)
 
(1
)
 
7

Premium taxes
4

 
2

 
3

Compensation and other acquisition costs
9

 
11

 
10

Total
11

 
12

 
20

Costs amortized during the period
(19
)
 
(20
)
 
(23
)
End of period
$
106

 
$
114

 
$
121




Financial Guaranty Insurance Losses

Accounting Policies

Loss and LAE Reserve

Loss and LAE reserve reported on the balance sheet relates only to direct and assumed reinsurance contracts that are accounted for as insurance, substantially all of which are financial guaranty insurance contracts. The corresponding reserve ceded to reinsurers is reported as reinsurance recoverable on unpaid losses. As discussed in Note 7, Fair Value Measurement, contracts that meet the definition of a derivative, as well as consolidated FG VIE assets and liabilities, are recorded separately at fair value. Any expected losses related to consolidated FG VIEs are eliminated upon consolidation. Any expected losses on credit derivatives are not recorded as loss and LAE reserve on the consolidated balance sheet, rather, credit derivatives are recorded at fair value on the balance sheet.
    
Under financial guaranty insurance accounting, the sum of unearned premium reserve and loss and LAE reserve represents the Company's stand‑ready obligation. Unearned premium reserve is deferred premium revenue, less claim payments and recoveries received that have not yet been recognized in the statement of operations (contra-paid). At contract inception, the entire stand-ready obligation is represented by unearned premium reserve. A loss and LAE reserve for an insurance contract is recorded only to the extent, and for the amount, that expected loss to be paid net of contra-paid (“total losses”) exceed the deferred premium revenue, on a contract by contract basis. As a result, the Company has expected loss to be paid that has not yet been expensed. Such amounts will be recognized in future periods as deferred premium revenue amortizes into income.
When a claim or LAE payment is made on a contract, it first reduces any recorded loss and LAE reserve. To the extent there is no loss and LAE reserve on a contract, then such claim payment is recorded as “contra-paid,” which reduces the unearned premium reserve. The contra-paid is recognized in the line item “loss and LAE” in the consolidated statement of operations when and for the amount that total losses exceed the remaining deferred premium revenue on the insurance contract. Loss and LAE in the consolidated statement of operations is presented net of cessions to reinsurers.

Salvage and Subrogation Recoverable

When the Company becomes entitled to the cash flow from the underlying collateral of an insured credit under salvage and subrogation rights as a result of a claim payment or estimated future claim payment, it reduces the expected loss to be paid on the contract. Such reduction in expected loss to be paid can result in one of the following:

a reduction in the corresponding loss and LAE reserve with a benefit to the income statement,

no entry recorded, if “total loss” is not in excess of deferred premium revenue, or

the recording of a salvage asset with a benefit to the income statement if the transaction is in a net recovery position at the reporting date.

The Company recognizes the expected recovery of claim payments (including recoveries from settlement with R&W providers) made by an acquired subsidiary prior to the date of acquisition, consistent with its policy for recognizing recoveries on all financial guaranty insurance contracts. To the extent that the estimated amount of recoveries increases or decreases due to changes in facts and circumstances the Company would recognize a benefit or expense consistent with how changes in the expected recovery of all other claim payments are recorded. The ceded component of salvage and subrogation recoverable is recorded in the line item reinsurance balances payable.

Expected Loss to be Expensed

Expected loss to be expensed represents past or expected future net claim payments that have not yet been expensed. Such amounts will be expensed in future periods as deferred premium revenue amortizes into income on financial guaranty insurance policies. Expected loss to be expensed is the Company's projection of incurred losses that will be recognized in future periods, excluding accretion of discount.

Insurance Contracts' Loss Information

The following table provides information on loss and LAE reserves and salvage and subrogation recoverable, net of reinsurance. The Company used risk-free rates for U.S. dollar denominated financial guaranty insurance obligations that ranged from 0.0% to 3.23% with a weighted average of 2.74% as of December 31, 2016 and 0.0% to 3.25% with a weighted average of 2.37% as of December 31, 2015.

Loss and LAE Reserve and Salvage and Subrogation Recoverable
Net of Reinsurance
Insurance Contracts
 
 
As of December 31, 2016
 
As of December 31, 2015
 
Loss and
LAE
Reserve, net
 
Salvage and
Subrogation
Recoverable, net 
 
Net Reserve (Recoverable)
 
Loss and
LAE
Reserve, net
 
Salvage and
Subrogation
Recoverable, net 
 
Net Reserve (Recoverable)
 
(in millions)
Public finance:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
U.S. public finance
$
711

 
$
86

 
$
625

 
$
604

 
$
7

 
$
597

Non-U.S. public finance
21

 

 
21

 
25

 

 
25

Public finance
732

 
86

 
646

 
629

 
7

 
622

Structured finance:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
U.S. RMBS
283

 
262

 
21

 
262

 
116

 
146

Triple-X life insurance transactions
36

 

 
36

 
82

 

 
82

Other structured finance
60

 

 
60

 
99

 

 
99

Structured finance
379

 
262

 
117

 
443

 
116

 
327

Subtotal
1,111

 
348

 
763

 
1,072

 
123

 
949

Other recoverable (payable)

 
(1
)
 
1

 

 
3

 
(3
)
Subtotal
1,111

 
347

 
764

 
1,072

 
126

 
946

Elimination of losses attributable to FG VIEs
(64
)
 

 
(64
)
 
(74
)
 
0

 
(74
)
Total (1)
$
1,047

 
$
347

 
$
700

 
$
998

 
$
126

 
$
872

______________
(1)                                 See “Components of Net Reserves (Salvage)” table for loss and LAE reserve and salvage and subrogation recoverable components.
 

Components of Net Reserves (Salvage)

 
As of
December 31, 2016
 
As of
December 31, 2015
 
(in millions)
Loss and LAE reserve
$
1,127

 
$
1,067

Reinsurance recoverable on unpaid losses
(80
)
 
(69
)
Loss and LAE reserve, net
1,047

 
998

Salvage and subrogation recoverable
(365
)
 
(126
)
Salvage and subrogation payable(1)
17

 
3

Other payable (recoverable)
1

 
(3
)
Salvage and subrogation recoverable, net, and other recoverable
(347
)
 
(126
)
Net reserves (salvage)
$
700

 
$
872

____________________
(1)          Recorded as a component of reinsurance balances payable.

 The table below provides a reconciliation of net expected loss to be paid to net expected loss to be expensed. Expected loss to be paid differs from expected loss to be expensed due to: (i) the contra-paid which represent the claim payments made and recoveries received that have not yet been recognized in the statement of operations, (ii) salvage and subrogation recoverable for transactions that are in a net recovery position where the Company has not yet received recoveries on claims previously paid (having the effect of reducing net expected loss to be paid by the amount of the previously paid claim and the expected recovery), but will have no future income effect (because the previously paid claims and the corresponding recovery of those claims will offset in income in future periods), and (iii) loss reserves that have already been established (and therefore expensed but not yet paid).
 
Reconciliation of Net Expected Loss to be Paid and
Net Expected Loss to be Expensed
Financial Guaranty Insurance Contracts
 
 
As of December 31, 2016
 
(in millions)
Net expected loss to be paid - financial guaranty insurance (1)
$
1,083

Contra-paid, net
37

Salvage and subrogation recoverable, net of reinsurance
348

Loss and LAE reserve - financial guaranty insurance contracts, net of reinsurance
(1,046
)
Other recoverable (payable)
(1
)
Net expected loss to be expensed (present value) (2)
$
421

____________________
(1)
See "Net Expected Loss to be Paid (Recovered) by Accounting Model" table in Note 5, Expected Loss to be Paid.

(2)
Excludes $64 million as of December 31, 2016 related to consolidated FG VIEs.

The following table provides a schedule of the expected timing of net expected losses to be expensed. The amount and timing of actual loss and LAE may differ from the estimates shown below due to factors such as accelerations, commutations, changes in expected lives and updates to loss estimates. This table excludes amounts related to FG VIEs, which are eliminated in consolidation.
 
Net Expected Loss to be Expensed
Financial Guaranty Insurance Contracts
 
 
As of December 31, 2016
 
(in millions)
2017 (January 1 – March 31)
$
8

2017 (April 1 – June 30)
10

2017 (July 1 – September 30)
8

2017 (October 1 – December 31)
9

Subtotal 2017
35

2018
34

2019
32

2020
32

2021
28

2022-2026
117

2027-2031
82

2032-2036
44

After 2036
17

Net expected loss to be expensed
421

Future accretion
373

Total expected future loss and LAE
$
794

 

The following table presents the loss and LAE recorded in the consolidated statements of operations by sector for insurance contracts. Amounts presented are net of reinsurance.

Loss and LAE
Reported on the
Consolidated Statements of Operations
 
 
Year Ended December 31,
 
2016
 
2015
 
2014
 
(in millions)
Public finance:
 
 
 
 
 
U.S. public finance
$
307

 
$
392

 
$
192

Non-U.S. public finance
(3
)
 
1

 
(1
)
Public finance
304

 
393

 
191

Structured finance:
 
 
 
 
 
U.S. RMBS
37

 
54

 
(129
)
Triple-X life insurance transactions
(22
)
 
16

 
85

Other structured finance
(17
)
 
(11
)
 
9

Structured finance
(2
)
 
59

 
(35
)
Loss and LAE on insurance contracts before FG VIE consolidation
302

 
452

 
156

Gain (loss) related to FG VIE consolidation
(7
)
 
(28
)
 
(30
)
Loss and LAE
$
295

 
$
424

 
$
126



The following table provides information on financial guaranty insurance contracts categorized as BIG.

Financial Guaranty Insurance
BIG Transaction Loss Summary
As of December 31, 2016
 
 
BIG Categories
 
BIG 1
 
BIG 2
 
BIG 3
 
Total
BIG, Net
 
Effect of
Consolidating
FG VIEs
 
Total
 
Gross
 
Ceded
 
Gross
 
Ceded
 
Gross
 
Ceded
 
 
 
 
(dollars in millions)
Number of risks(1)
165

 
(35
)
 
79

 
(11
)
 
148

 
(49
)
 
392

 

 
392

Remaining weighted-average contract period (in years)
8.6

 
7.0

 
13.2

 
10.5

 
8.1

 
6.0

 
10.1

 

 
10.1

Outstanding exposure:
 

 
 

 
 

 
 

 
 

 
 

 
 

 
 

 
 

Principal
$
4,187

 
$
(326
)
 
$
4,273

 
$
(416
)
 
$
4,703

 
$
(320
)
 
$
12,101

 
$

 
$
12,101

Interest
1,932

 
(140
)
 
2,926

 
(219
)
 
1,867

 
(87
)
 
6,279

 

 
6,279

Total(2)
$
6,119

 
$
(466
)
 
$
7,199

 
$
(635
)
 
$
6,570

 
$
(407
)
 
$
18,380

 
$

 
$
18,380

Expected cash outflows (inflows)
$
172

 
$
(19
)
 
$
1,404

 
$
(86
)
 
$
1,435

 
$
(65
)
 
$
2,841

 
$
(326
)
 
$
2,515

Potential recoveries
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Undiscounted R&W
120

 
(3
)
 
(2
)
 

 
(62
)
 
1

 
54

 

 
54

Other(3)
(560
)
 
26

 
(144
)
 
4

 
(681
)
 
44

 
(1,311
)
 
198

 
(1,113
)
Total potential recoveries
(440
)
 
23

 
(146
)
 
4

 
(743
)
 
45

 
(1,257
)
 
198

 
(1,059
)
Subtotal
(268
)
 
4

 
1,258

 
(82
)
 
692

 
(20
)
 
1,584

 
(128
)
 
1,456

Discount
61

 
(4
)
 
(355
)
 
19

 
(114
)
 
(4
)
 
(397
)
 
24

 
(373
)
Present value of expected cash flows
$
(207
)
 
$
0

 
$
903

 
$
(63
)
 
$
578

 
$
(24
)
 
$
1,187

 
$
(104
)
 
$
1,083

Deferred premium revenue
$
131

 
$
(5
)
 
$
246

 
$
(6
)
 
$
476

 
$
(30
)
 
$
812

 
$
(86
)
 
$
726

Reserves (salvage)
$
(255
)
 
$
5

 
$
738

 
$
(58
)
 
$
343

 
$
(10
)
 
$
763

 
$
(64
)
 
$
699

 

Financial Guaranty Insurance
BIG Transaction Loss Summary
As of December 31, 2015
 
 
BIG Categories
 
BIG 1
 
BIG 2
 
BIG 3
 
Total
BIG, Net
 
Effect of
Consolidating
FG VIEs
 
Total
 
Gross
 
Ceded
 
Gross
 
Ceded
 
Gross
 
Ceded
 
 
(dollars in millions)
Number of risks(1)
202

 
(46
)
 
85

 
(13
)
 
132

 
(44
)
 
419

 

 
419

Remaining weighted-average contract period (in years)
10.0

 
8.7

 
13.8

 
9.5

 
7.7

 
5.9

 
10.7

 

 
10.7

Outstanding exposure:
 

 
 

 
 

 
 

 
 

 
 

 
 

 
 

 
 

Principal
$
7,751

 
$
(732
)
 
$
3,895

 
$
(240
)
 
$
3,087

 
$
(187
)
 
$
13,574

 
$

 
$
13,574

Interest
4,109

 
(354
)
 
2,805

 
(110
)
 
1,011

 
(42
)
 
7,419

 

 
7,419

Total(2)
$
11,860

 
$
(1,086
)
 
$
6,700

 
$
(350
)
 
$
4,098

 
$
(229
)
 
$
20,993

 
$

 
$
20,993

Expected cash outflows (inflows)
386

 
(42
)
 
1,158

 
(60
)
 
1,464

 
(53
)
 
2,853

 
(343
)
 
2,510

Potential recoveries
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Undiscounted R&W
69

 
(2
)
 
(49
)
 
1

 
(85
)
 
5

 
(61
)
 
7

 
(54
)
Other(3)
(372
)
 
12

 
(167
)
 
8

 
(672
)
 
24

 
(1,167
)
 
182

 
(985
)
Total potential recoveries
(303
)
 
10

 
(216
)
 
9

 
(757
)
 
29

 
(1,228
)
 
189

 
(1,039
)
Subtotal
83

 
(32
)
 
942

 
(51
)
 
707

 
(24
)
 
1,625

 
(154
)
 
1,471

Discount
22

 
5

 
(237
)
 
11

 
27

 
(94
)
 
(266
)
 
34

 
(232
)
Present value of expected cash flows
$
105

 
$
(27
)
 
$
705

 
$
(40
)
 
$
734

 
$
(118
)
 
$
1,359

 
$
(120
)
 
$
1,239

Deferred premium revenue
$
371

 
$
(37
)
 
$
150

 
$
(4
)
 
$
386

 
$
(32
)
 
$
834

 
$
(100
)
 
$
734

Reserves (salvage)
$
2

 
$
(19
)
 
$
591

 
$
(38
)
 
$
404

 
$
(9
)
 
$
931

 
$
(74
)
 
$
857

____________________
(1)
A risk represents the aggregate of the financial guaranty policies that share the same revenue source for purposes of making debt service payments. The ceded number of risks represents the number of risks for which the Company ceded a portion of its exposure.

(2)
Includes BIG amounts related to FG VIEs.

(3)
Includes excess spread.
 

Ratings Impact on Financial Guaranty Business
 
A downgrade of one of AGL’s insurance subsidiaries may result in increased claims under financial guaranties issued by the Company, if the insured obligors were unable to pay.
 
For example, AGM has issued financial guaranty insurance policies in respect of the obligations of municipal obligors under interest rate swaps. AGM insures periodic payments owed by the municipal obligors to the bank counterparties. In certain cases, AGM also insures termination payments that may be owed by the municipal obligors to the bank counterparties. If (i) AGM has been downgraded below the rating trigger set forth in a swap under which it has insured the termination payment, which rating trigger varies on a transaction by transaction basis; (ii) the municipal obligor has the right to cure by, but has failed in, posting collateral, replacing AGM or otherwise curing the downgrade of AGM; (iii) the transaction documents include as a condition that an event of default or termination event with respect to the municipal obligor has occurred, such as the rating of the municipal obligor being downgraded past a specified level, and such condition has been met; (iv) the bank counterparty has elected to terminate the swap; (v) a termination payment is payable by the municipal obligor; and (vi) the municipal obligor has failed to make the termination payment payable by it, then AGM would be required to pay the termination payment due by the municipal obligor, in an amount not to exceed the policy limit set forth in the financial guaranty insurance policy. At AGM's current financial strength ratings, if the conditions giving rise to the obligation of AGM to make a termination payment under the swap termination policies were all satisfied, then AGM could pay claims in an amount not exceeding approximately $125 million in respect of such termination payments. Taking into consideration whether the rating of the municipal obligor is below any applicable specified trigger, if the financial strength ratings of AGM were further downgraded below "A" by S&P or below "A2" by Moody's, and the conditions giving rise to the obligation of AGM to make a payment under the swap policies were all satisfied, then AGM could pay claims in an additional amount not exceeding approximately $291 million in respect of such termination payments.
     
As another example, with respect to variable rate demand obligations (VRDOs) for which a bank has agreed to provide a liquidity facility, a downgrade of AGM or AGC may provide the bank with the right to give notice to bondholders that the bank will terminate the liquidity facility, causing the bondholders to tender their bonds to the bank. Bonds held by the bank accrue interest at a “bank bond rate” that is higher than the rate otherwise borne by the bond (typically the prime rate plus 2.00% — 3.00%, and capped at the lesser of 25% and the maximum legal limit). In the event the bank holds such bonds for longer than a specified period of time, usually 90-180 days, the bank has the right to demand accelerated repayment of bond principal, usually through payment of equal installments over a period of not less than five years. In the event that a municipal obligor is unable to pay interest accruing at the bank bond rate or to pay principal during the shortened amortization period, a claim could be submitted to AGM or AGC under its financial guaranty policy. As of December 31, 2016, AGM and AGC had insured approximately $4.9 billion net par of VRDOs, of which approximately $0.3 billion of net par constituted VRDOs issued by municipal obligors rated BBB- or lower pursuant to the Company’s internal rating. The specific terms relating to the rating levels that trigger the bank’s termination right, and whether it is triggered by a downgrade by one rating agency or a downgrade by all rating agencies then rating the insurer, vary depending on the transaction.

In addition, AGM may be required to pay claims in respect of AGMH’s former financial products business if Dexia SA and its affiliates, from which the Company had purchased AGMH and its subsidiaries, do not comply with their obligations following a downgrade of the financial strength rating of AGM. A downgrade of the financial strength rating of AGM could trigger a payment obligation of AGM in respect to AGMH's former GIC business. Most GICs insured by AGM allow for the termination of the GIC contract and a withdrawal of GIC funds at the option of the GIC holder in the event of a downgrade of AGM below a specified threshold, generally below A- by S&P or A3 by Moody's. FSAM is expected to have sufficient eligible and liquid assets to satisfy any expected withdrawal and collateral posting obligations resulting from future rating actions affecting AGM.