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Outstanding Exposure
12 Months Ended
Dec. 31, 2016
Outstanding Exposure Disclosure  
Outstanding Exposure
Outstanding Exposure
 
The Company’s financial guaranty contracts are written in either insurance or credit derivative form, but collectively are considered financial guaranty contracts. The Company seeks to limit its exposure to losses by underwriting obligations that it views as investment grade at inception, although, as part of its loss mitigation strategy for existing troubled credits, it may underwrite new issuances that it views as BIG. The Company diversifies its insured portfolio across asset classes and, in the structured finance portfolio, requires rigorous subordination or collateralization requirements. Reinsurance may be used in order to reduce net exposure to certain insured transactions.

     Public finance obligations insured by the Company consist primarily of general obligation bonds supported by the taxing powers of U.S. state or municipal governmental authorities, as well as tax-supported bonds, revenue bonds and other obligations supported by covenants from state or municipal governmental authorities or other municipal obligors to impose and collect fees and charges for public services or specific infrastructure projects. The Company also includes within public finance obligations those obligations backed by the cash flow from leases or other revenues from projects serving substantial public purposes, including utilities, toll roads, health care facilities and government office buildings. The Company also includes within public finance similar obligations issued by territorial and non-U.S. sovereign and sub-sovereign issuers and governmental authorities.

Structured finance obligations insured by the Company are generally issued by special purpose entities, including VIEs, and backed by pools of assets having an ascertainable cash flow or market value or other specialized financial obligations. Some of these VIEs are consolidated as described in Note 9, Consolidated Variable Interest Entities. Unless otherwise specified, the outstanding par and debt service amounts presented in this note include outstanding exposures on VIEs whether or not they are consolidated.

Significant Risk Management Activities

The Portfolio Risk Management Committee, which includes members of senior management and senior credit and surveillance officers, sets specific risk policies and limits and is responsible for enterprise risk management, establishing the Company's risk appetite, credit underwriting of new business, surveillance and work-out.
    
As part of the surveillance process, the Company monitors trends and changes in transaction credit quality, detects any deterioration in credit quality, and recommends such remedial actions as may be necessary or appropriate. All transactions in the insured portfolio are assigned internal credit ratings, which are updated based on changes in transaction credit quality. The Company also develops strategies to enforce its contractual rights and remedies and to mitigate its losses, engage in negotiation discussions with transaction participants and, when necessary, manage the Company's litigation proceedings.

Surveillance Categories
 
The Company segregates its insured portfolio into investment grade and BIG surveillance categories to facilitate the appropriate allocation of resources to monitoring and loss mitigation efforts and to aid in establishing the appropriate cycle for periodic review for each exposure. BIG exposures include all exposures with internal credit ratings below BBB-. The Company’s internal credit ratings are based on internal assessments of the likelihood of default and loss severity in the event of default. Internal credit ratings are expressed on a ratings scale similar to that used by the rating agencies and are generally reflective of an approach similar to that employed by the rating agencies, except that the Company's internal credit ratings focus on future performance rather than lifetime performance.
 
The Company monitors its investment grade credits to determine whether any need to be internally downgraded to BIG and refreshes its internal credit ratings on individual credits in quarterly, semi-annual or annual cycles based on the Company’s view of the credit’s quality, loss potential, volatility and sector. Ratings on credits in sectors identified as under the most stress or with the most potential volatility are reviewed every quarter. The Company’s credit ratings on assumed credits are based on the Company’s reviews of low-rated credits or credits in volatile sectors, unless such information is not available, in which case, the ceding company’s credit ratings of the transactions are used.
 
Credits identified as BIG are subjected to further review to determine the probability of a loss. See Note 5, Expected Loss to be Paid, for additional information. Surveillance personnel then assign each BIG transaction to the appropriate BIG surveillance category based upon whether a future loss is expected and whether a claim has been paid. For surveillance purposes, the Company calculates present value using a discount rate of 4% or 5% depending on the insurance subsidiary. (Risk-free rates are used for calculating the expected loss for financial statement measurement purposes.)
 
More extensive monitoring and intervention is employed for all BIG surveillance categories, with internal credit ratings reviewed quarterly. The Company expects “future losses” on a transaction when the Company believes there is at least a 50% chance that, on a present value basis, it will pay more claims in the future of that transaction than it will have reimbursed. The three BIG categories are:
 
BIG Category 1: Below-investment-grade transactions showing sufficient deterioration to make future losses possible, but for which none are currently expected.
 
BIG Category 2: Below-investment-grade transactions for which future losses are expected but for which no claims (other than liquidity claims, which are claims that the Company expects to be reimbursed within one year) have yet been paid.
 
BIG Category 3: Below-investment-grade transactions for which future losses are expected and on which claims (other than liquidity claims) have been paid.

Components of Outstanding Exposure

Unless otherwise noted, ratings disclosed herein on the Company's insured portfolio reflect its internal ratings. The Company classifies those portions of risks benefiting from reimbursement obligations collateralized by eligible assets held in trust in acceptable reimbursement structures as the higher of 'AA' or their current internal rating.

The Company purchases securities that it has insured, and for which it has expected losses to be paid, in order to mitigate the economic effect of insured losses (loss mitigation securities). The Company excludes amounts attributable to loss mitigation securities (unless otherwise indicated) from par and debt service outstanding, because it manages such securities as investments and not insurance exposure. As of December 31, 2016 and December 31, 2015, the Company excluded $2.1 billion and $1.5 billion, respectively, of net par as a result of loss mitigation strategies, including loss mitigation securities held in the investment portfolio, which are primarily BIG. The following table presents the gross and net debt service for financial guaranty contracts.

Financial Guaranty
Debt Service Outstanding

 
Gross Debt Service
Outstanding
 
Net Debt Service
Outstanding
 
December 31,
2016
 
December 31,
2015
 
December 31,
2016
 
December 31,
2015
 
(in millions)
Public finance
$
425,849

 
$
515,494

 
$
409,447

 
$
494,426

Structured finance
29,151

 
43,976

 
28,088

 
41,915

Total financial guaranty
$
455,000

 
$
559,470

 
$
437,535

 
$
536,341



    
In addition to the financial guaranty debt service shown in the table above, the Company provided structured capital relief Triple-X excess of loss life reinsurance on approximately $390 million of exposure as of December 31, 2016, which is expected to increase to approximately $1 billion prior to September 30, 2036. There was no exposure to structured capital relief Triple-X excess of loss life reinsurance as of December 31, 2015. The Company also has mortgage guaranty reinsurance related to loans originated in Ireland on debt service of approximately $36 million as of December 31, 2016 and $102 million as of December 31, 2015. These transactions are all rated investment grade internally.


Financial Guaranty Portfolio by Internal Rating(1)
As of December 31, 2016 

 
 
Public Finance
U.S.
 
Public Finance
Non-U.S.
 
Structured Finance
U.S
 
Structured Finance
Non-U.S
 
Total
Rating
Category
 
Net Par
Outstanding
 
%
 
Net Par
Outstanding
 
%
 
Net Par
Outstanding
 
%
 
Net Par
Outstanding
 
%
 
Net Par
Outstanding
 
%
 
 
(dollars in millions)
AAA
 
$
2,066

 
0.8
%
 
$
2,221

 
8.4
%
 
$
9,757

 
44.2
%
 
$
1,447

 
47.0
%
 
$
15,491

 
5.2
%
AA
 
46,420

 
19.0

 
170

 
0.6

 
5,773

 
26.2

 
127

 
4.1

 
52,490

 
17.7

A
 
133,829

 
54.7

 
6,270

 
23.8

 
1,589

 
7.2

 
456

 
14.8

 
142,144

 
48.0

BBB
 
55,103

 
22.5

 
16,378

 
62.1

 
879

 
4.0

 
759

 
24.6

 
73,119

 
24.7

BIG
 
7,380

 
3.0

 
1,342

 
5.1

 
4,059

 
18.4

 
293

 
9.5

 
13,074

 
4.4

Total net par outstanding
 
$
244,798

 
100.0
%
 
$
26,381

 
100.0
%
 
$
22,057

 
100.0
%
 
$
3,082

 
100.0
%
 
$
296,318

 
100.0
%
_____________________
(1)    The December 31, 2016 amounts include $2.9 billion of net par from the CIFG Acquisition.


Financial Guaranty Portfolio by Internal Rating(1)
As of December 31, 2015 

 
 
Public Finance
U.S.
 
Public Finance
Non-U.S.
 
Structured Finance
U.S
 
Structured Finance
Non-U.S
 
Total
Rating
Category
 
Net Par
Outstanding
 
%
 
Net Par
Outstanding
 
%
 
Net Par
Outstanding
 
%
 
Net Par
Outstanding
 
%
 
Net Par
Outstanding
 
%
 
 
(dollars in millions)
AAA
 
$
3,053

 
1.1
%
 
$
709

 
2.4
%
 
$
14,366

 
45.2
%
 
$
2,709

 
50.6
%
 
$
20,837

 
5.8
%
AA
 
69,274

 
23.7

 
2,017

 
6.8

 
7,934

 
25.0

 
177

 
3.3

 
79,402

 
22.1

A
 
157,440

 
53.9

 
6,765

 
22.9

 
2,486

 
7.8

 
555

 
10.3

 
167,246

 
46.7

BBB
 
54,315

 
18.6

 
18,708

 
63.2

 
1,515

 
4.8

 
1,365

 
25.5

 
75,903

 
21.2

BIG
 
7,784

 
2.7

 
1,378

 
4.7

 
5,469

 
17.2

 
552

 
10.3

 
15,183

 
4.2

Total net par outstanding
 
$
291,866

 
100.0
%
 
$
29,577

 
100.0
%
 
$
31,770

 
100.0
%
 
$
5,358

 
100.0
%
 
$
358,571

 
100.0
%
_____________________
(1)
The December 31, 2015 amounts include $10.9 billion of net par from the Radian Asset Acquisition.


Financial Guaranty Portfolio
by Sector

 
Gross Par Outstanding
 
Ceded Par Outstanding
 
Net Par Outstanding
Sector
As of December 31, 2016
 
As of December 31, 2015
 
As of December 31, 2016
 
As of December 31, 2015
 
As of December 31, 2016
 
As of December 31, 2015
 
(in millions)
Public finance:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 

 
 

U.S.:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 

 
 

General obligation
$
110,167

 
$
129,386

 
$
2,450

 
$
3,131

 
$
107,717

 
$
126,255

Tax backed
51,325

 
59,649

 
1,394

 
1,587

 
49,931

 
58,062

Municipal utilities
38,442

 
46,951

 
839

 
1,015

 
37,603

 
45,936

Transportation
19,915

 
24,351

 
512

 
897

 
19,403

 
23,454

Healthcare
11,940

 
15,967

 
702

 
961

 
11,238

 
15,006

Higher education
10,114

 
11,984

 
29

 
48

 
10,085

 
11,936

Infrastructure finance
3,902

 
5,241

 
133

 
248

 
3,769

 
4,993

Housing
1,593

 
2,075

 
34

 
38

 
1,559

 
2,037

Investor-owned utilities
697

 
916

 
0

 
0

 
697

 
916

Other public finance
2,810

 
3,288

 
14

 
17

 
2,796

 
3,271

Total public finance—U.S.
250,905

 
299,808

 
6,107

 
7,942

 
244,798

 
291,866

Non-U.S.:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 

 
 

Infrastructure finance
11,818

 
14,040

 
1,087

 
1,312

 
10,731

 
12,728

Regulated utilities
11,395

 
12,616

 
2,132

 
2,568

 
9,263

 
10,048

Pooled infrastructure
1,621

 
2,013

 
108

 
134

 
1,513

 
1,879

Other public finance
5,653

 
5,714

 
779

 
792

 
4,874

 
4,922

Total public finance—non-U.S.
30,487

 
34,383

 
4,106

 
4,806

 
26,381

 
29,577

Total public finance
281,392

 
334,191

 
10,213

 
12,748

 
271,179

 
321,443

Structured finance:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 

 
 

U.S.:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 

 
 

Pooled corporate obligations
10,273

 
16,757

 
223

 
749

 
10,050

 
16,008

Residential Mortgage-Backed Securities (RMBS)
5,933

 
7,441

 
296

 
374

 
5,637

 
7,067

Insurance securitizations
2,355

 
3,047

 
47

 
47

 
2,308

 
3,000

Consumer receivables
1,707

 
2,153

 
55

 
54

 
1,652

 
2,099

Financial products
1,540

 
1,906

 

 

 
1,540

 
1,906

Commercial receivables
234

 
432

 
4

 
5

 
230

 
427

Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) and other commercial real estate related exposures
43

 
549

 

 
16

 
43

 
533

Other structured finance
646

 
823

 
49

 
93

 
597

 
730

Total structured finance—U.S.
22,731

 
33,108

 
674

 
1,338

 
22,057

 
31,770

Non-U.S.:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 

 
 

Pooled corporate obligations
1,716

 
4,087

 
181

 
442

 
1,535

 
3,645

RMBS
661

 
552

 
57

 
60

 
604

 
492

Commercial receivables
373

 
619

 
17

 
19

 
356

 
600

Other structured finance
601

 
635

 
14

 
14

 
587

 
621

Total structured finance—non-U.S.
3,351

 
5,893

 
269

 
535

 
3,082

 
5,358

Total structured finance
26,082

 
39,001

 
943

 
1,873

 
25,139

 
37,128

Total net par outstanding
$
307,474

 
$
373,192

 
$
11,156

 
$
14,621

 
$
296,318

 
$
358,571



In addition to amounts shown in the tables above, the Company had outstanding commitments to provide guaranties of $123 million for structured finance and $394 million for public finance obligations as of December 31, 2016. The expiration dates for the public finance commitments range between January 1, 2017 and March 12, 2017, with $380 million expiring prior to the date of this filing. The commitments are contingent on the satisfaction of all conditions set forth in them and may expire unused or be canceled at the counterparty’s request. Therefore, the total commitment amount does not necessarily reflect actual future guaranteed amounts.

Actual maturities of insured obligations could differ from contractual maturities because borrowers have the right to call or prepay certain obligations with or without call or prepayment penalties. The expected maturities of structured finance obligations are, in general, considerably shorter than the contractual maturities for such obligations.

Expected Amortization of
Net Par Outstanding
As of December 31, 2016

 
Public Finance
 
Structured Finance
 
Total
 
(in millions)
0 to 5 years
$
90,563

 
$
16,394

 
$
106,957

5 to 10 years
56,351

 
3,692

 
60,043

10 to 15 years
45,712

 
2,548

 
48,260

15 to 20 years
37,057

 
1,859

 
38,916

20 years and above
41,496

 
646

 
42,142

Total net par outstanding
$
271,179

 
$
25,139

 
$
296,318




Components of BIG Portfolio

Components of BIG Net Par Outstanding
(Insurance and Credit Derivative Form)
As of December 31, 2016

 
BIG Net Par Outstanding
 
Net Par
 
BIG 1
 
BIG 2
 
BIG 3
 
Total BIG
 
Outstanding
 
 
 
 
 
(in millions)
 
 
 
 
Public finance:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
U.S. public finance
$
2,402

 
$
3,123

 
$
1,855

 
$
7,380

 
$
244,798

Non-U.S. public finance
1,288

 
54

 

 
1,342

 
26,381

Public finance
3,690

 
3,177

 
1,855

 
8,722

 
271,179

Structured finance:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
U.S. RMBS
197

 
493

 
2,461

 
3,151

 
5,637

Triple-X life insurance transactions

 

 
126

 
126

 
2,057

Trust preferred securities (TruPS)
304

 
126

 

 
430

 
1,892

Other structured finance
304

 
263

 
78

 
645

 
15,553

Structured finance
805

 
882

 
2,665

 
4,352

 
25,139

Total
$
4,495

 
$
4,059

 
$
4,520

 
$
13,074

 
$
296,318




Components of BIG Net Par Outstanding
(Insurance and Credit Derivative Form)
As of December 31, 2015

 
BIG Net Par Outstanding
 
Net Par
 
BIG 1
 
BIG 2
 
BIG 3
 
Total BIG
 
Outstanding
 
 
 
 
 
(in millions)
 
 
 
 
Public finance:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
U.S. public finance
$
4,765

 
$
2,883

 
$
136

 
$
7,784

 
$
291,866

Non-U.S. public finance
875

 
503

 

 
1,378

 
29,577

Public finance
5,640

 
3,386

 
136

 
9,162

 
321,443

Structured finance:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
U.S. RMBS
1,020

 
397

 
2,556

 
3,973

 
7,067

Triple-X life insurance transactions

 

 
216

 
216

 
2,750

TruPS
679

 
127

 

 
806

 
4,379

Other structured finance
684

 
219

 
123

 
1,026

 
22,932

Structured finance
2,383

 
743

 
2,895

 
6,021

 
37,128

Total
$
8,023

 
$
4,129

 
$
3,031

 
$
15,183

 
$
358,571




BIG Net Par Outstanding
and Number of Risks
As of December 31, 2016

 
 
Net Par Outstanding
 
Number of Risks(2)
Description
 
Financial
Guaranty
Insurance(1)
 
Credit
Derivative
 
Total
 
Financial
Guaranty
Insurance(1)
 
Credit
Derivative
 
Total
 
 
(dollars in millions)
BIG:
 
 

 
 

 
 

 
 

 
 

 
 

Category 1
 
$
3,861

 
$
634

 
$
4,495

 
165

 
10

 
175

Category 2
 
3,857

 
202

 
4,059

 
79

 
6

 
85

Category 3
 
4,383

 
137

 
4,520

 
148

 
9

 
157

Total BIG
 
$
12,101

 
$
973

 
$
13,074

 
392

 
25

 
417



BIG Net Par Outstanding
and Number of Risks
As of December 31, 2015

 
 
Net Par Outstanding
 
Number of Risks(2)
Description
 
Financial
Guaranty
Insurance(1)
 
Credit
Derivative
 
Total
 
Financial
Guaranty
Insurance(1)
 
Credit
Derivative
 
Total
 
 
(dollars in millions)
BIG:
 
 

 
 

 
 

 
 

 
 

 
 

Category 1
 
$
7,019

 
$
1,004

 
$
8,023

 
202

 
12

 
214

Category 2
 
3,655

 
474

 
4,129

 
85

 
8

 
93

Category 3
 
2,900

 
131

 
3,031

 
132

 
12

 
144

Total BIG
 
$
13,574

 
$
1,609

 
$
15,183

 
419

 
32

 
451

_____________________
(1)    Includes net par outstanding for VIEs.

(2)
A risk represents the aggregate of the financial guaranty policies that share the same revenue source for purposes of making debt service payments.
 
Geographic Distribution of Net Par Outstanding

The Company seeks to maintain a diversified portfolio of insured obligations designed to spread its risk across a number of geographic areas.

Geographic Distribution of
Net Par Outstanding
As of December 31, 2016

 
Number of Risks
 
Net Par Outstanding
 
Percent of Total Net Par Outstanding
 
(dollars in millions)
U.S.:
 
 
 
 
 
U.S. Public finance:
 
 
 
 
 
 California
1,459

 
$
42,404

 
14.3
%
 Texas
1,271

 
20,599

 
7.0

 Pennsylvania
852

 
20,232

 
6.8

 New York
935

 
19,637

 
6.6

 Illinois
776

 
17,967

 
6.1

 Florida
324

 
12,643

 
4.3

 New Jersey
495

 
12,560

 
4.2

 Michigan
506

 
7,985

 
2.7

 Georgia
172

 
6,372

 
2.2

 Ohio
409

 
5,554

 
1.9

 Other states and U.S. territories
3,475

 
78,845

 
26.6

Total U.S. public finance
10,674

 
244,798

 
82.7

U.S. Structured finance (multiple states)
610

 
22,057

 
7.4

Total U.S.
11,284

 
266,855

 
90.1

Non-U.S.:
 
 
 
 
 
United Kingdom
112

 
15,940

 
5.4

Australia
18

 
3,036

 
1.0

Canada
9

 
2,730

 
0.9

France
14

 
1,809

 
0.6

Italy
9

 
1,311

 
0.4

Other
53

 
4,637

 
1.6

Total non-U.S.
215

 
29,463

 
9.9

Total
11,499

 
$
296,318

 
100.0
%


Exposure to Puerto Rico
    
The Company has insured exposure to general obligation bonds of the Commonwealth of Puerto Rico (Puerto Rico or the Commonwealth) and various obligations of its related authorities and public corporations aggregating $4.8 billion net par as of December 31, 2016, all of which are rated BIG. Puerto Rico has experienced significant general fund budget deficits in recent years and a challenging economic environment. Beginning on January 1, 2016, a number of Puerto Rico credits have defaulted on bond payments, and the Company has now paid claims on several Puerto Rico credits as shown in the table "Puerto Rico Net Par Outstanding" below.

On November 30, 2015 and December 8, 2015, Governor García Padilla of Puerto Rico (the Former Governor) issued executive orders (Clawback Orders) directing the Puerto Rico Department of Treasury and the Puerto Rico Tourism Company to retain or transfer certain taxes pledged to secure the payment of bonds issued by the Puerto Rico Highways and Transportation Authority (PRHTA), Puerto Rico Infrastructure Financing Authority (PRIFA), and Puerto Rico Convention Center District Authority (PRCCDA). On January 7, 2016, the Company sued various Puerto Rico governmental officials in the United States District Court, District of Puerto Rico, asserting that this attempt to “claw back” pledged taxes is unconstitutional, and demanding declaratory and injunctive relief. The Puerto Rico credits insured by the Company subject to the Clawback Orders are shown in the table “Puerto Rico Net Par Outstanding” below.

On April 6, 2016, the Former Governor signed into law the Puerto Rico Emergency Moratorium & Financial Rehabilitation Act (the Moratorium Act). The Moratorium Act purportedly empowers the governor to declare, entity by entity, states of emergencies and moratoriums on debt service payments on obligations of the Commonwealth and its related authorities and public corporations, as well as instituting a stay against related litigation, among other things. The Former Governor used the authority of the Moratorium Act to take a number of actions related to issuers of obligations the Company insures. National Public Finance Guarantee Corporation (National) (another financial guarantor), holders of the Commonwealth general obligation bonds and certain Puerto Rico residents (the National Plaintiffs) have filed suits to invalidate the Moratorium Act, and after the passage of the Puerto Rico Oversight, Management, and Economic Stability Act (PROMESA), the National Plaintiffs sought a relief from the stay of litigation imposed by PROMESA to pursue the action. On July 21, 2016, the Company filed a motion and form of complaint in the U.S. District Court for the District of Puerto Rico seeking relief from the stay of litigation imposed by PROMESA to seek a declaration that the Moratorium Act is preempted by Federal bankruptcy law. In November 2016 that court denied both the Company's and the National Plaintiffs' motions for relief from stay in the respective actions. The PROMESA stay expires on May 1, 2017.

On June 30, 2016, PROMESA was signed into law by the President of the United States. PROMESA establishes a seven-member federal financial oversight board (Oversight Board) with authority to require that balanced budgets and fiscal plans be adopted and implemented by Puerto Rico. PROMESA provides a legal framework under which the debt of the Commonwealth and its related authorities and public corporations may be voluntarily restructured, and grants the Oversight Board the sole authority to file restructuring petitions in a federal court to restructure the debt of the Commonwealth and its related authorities and public corporations if voluntary negotiations fail, provided that any such restructuring must be in accordance with an Oversight Board approved fiscal plan that respects the liens and priorities provided under Puerto Rico law. PROMESA also appears to preempt at least portions of the Moratorium Act and to stay debt-related litigation, including the Company’s litigation regarding the Clawback Orders. On August 31, 2016, the President of the United States appointed the seven members of the Oversight Board.

The Oversight Board has begun meeting and has hired Ramón Ruiz-Comas as interim executive director. On January 2, 2017, Ricardo Antonio Rosselló Nevares (the Governor) took office, replacing the Former Governor. On January 29, 2017, the Governor signed the Puerto Rico Emergency and Fiscal Responsibility Act (Emergency Act) that, among other things, repeals portions of the Moratorium Act, defines an emergency period until May 1, 2017, continues diversion of collateral away from bonds the Company insures, and defines the powers and duties of the Fiscal Agency and Financial Advisory Authority (FAFAA). The final shape, timing and validity of responses to Puerto Rico’s distress eventually enacted or implemented under the auspices of PROMESA and the Oversight Board or otherwise, and the impact of any such responses on obligations insured by the Company, is uncertain.

The Company groups its Puerto Rico exposure into three categories:

Constitutionally Guaranteed. The Company includes in this category public debt benefiting from Article VI of the Constitution of the Commonwealth, which expressly provides that interest and principal payments on the public debt are to be paid before other disbursements are made.

Public Corporations – Certain Revenues Potentially Subject to Clawback. The Company includes in this category the debt of public corporations for which applicable law permits the Commonwealth to claw back, subject to certain conditions and for the payment of public debt, at least a portion of the revenues supporting the bonds the Company insures. As a Constitutional condition to clawback, available Commonwealth revenues for any fiscal year must be insufficient to pay Commonwealth debt service before the payment of any appropriations for that year.  The Company believes that this condition has not been satisfied to date, and accordingly that the Commonwealth has not to date been entitled to clawback revenues supporting debt insured by the Company. As noted above, the Company sued various Puerto Rico governmental officials in the United States District Court, District of Puerto Rico asserting that Puerto Rico's recent attempt to claw back pledged taxes is unconstitutional, and demanding declaratory and injunctive relief.

Other Public Corporations. The Company includes in this category the debt of public corporations that are supported by revenues it does not believe are subject to clawback.

Constitutionally Guaranteed

General Obligation. As of December 31, 2016, the Company had $1,476 million insured net par outstanding of the general obligations of Puerto Rico, which are supported by the good faith, credit and taxing power of the Commonwealth. On July 1, 2016, despite the requirements of Article VI of its Constitution but pursuant to an executive order issued by the Former Governor under the Moratorium Act, the Commonwealth defaulted on most of the debt service payment due that day, and the Company made its first claim payments on these bonds, and has continued to make claim payments on these bonds.

Puerto Rico Public Buildings Authority (PBA). As of December 31, 2016, the Company had $169 million insured net par outstanding of PBA bonds, which are supported by a pledge of the rents due under leases of government facilities to departments, agencies, instrumentalities and municipalities of the Commonwealth, and that benefit from a Commonwealth guaranty supported by a pledge of the Commonwealth’s good faith, credit and taxing power. On July 1, 2016, despite the requirements of Article VI of its Constitution but pursuant to an executive order issued by the Former Governor under the Moratorium Act, the PBA defaulted on most of the debt service payment due that day, and the Company made its first claim payments on these bonds, and has continued to make claim payments on these bonds.

Public Corporations - Certain Revenues Potentially Subject to Clawback

PRHTA. As of December 31, 2016, the Company had $918 million insured net par outstanding of PRHTA (Transportation revenue) bonds and $350 million insured net par of PRHTA (Highways revenue) bonds. The transportation revenue bonds are secured by a subordinate gross pledge of gasoline and gas oil and diesel oil taxes, motor vehicle license fees and certain tolls, plus a first lien on up to $120 million annually of taxes on crude oil, unfinished oil and derivative products. The highways revenue bonds are secured by a gross pledge of gasoline and gas oil and diesel oil taxes, motor vehicle license fees and certain tolls. The Clawback Orders cover Commonwealth-derived taxes that are allocated to PRHTA. The Company believes that such sources represented a substantial majority of PRHTA’s revenues in 2015. The PRHTA bonds are subject to executive orders issued pursuant to the Moratorium Act. As noted above, the Company filed a motion and form of complaint in the U.S. District Court for the District of Puerto Rico seeking relief from the PROMESA stay to seek a declaration that the Moratorium Act is preempted by Federal bankruptcy law and that certain gubernatorial executive orders diverting PRHTA pledged toll revenues (which are not subject to the Clawback Orders) are preempted by PROMESA and violate the U.S. Constitution, and also seeking damages and injunctive relief. That motion was denied on November 2, 2016, on procedural grounds. The PROMESA stay expires on May 1, 2017. There were sufficient funds in the PRHTA bond accounts to make the July 1, 2016 and January 1, 2017 PRHTA debt service payments guaranteed by the Company on a primary basis, and those payments were made in full.

PRCCDA. As of December 31, 2016, the Company had $152 million insured net par outstanding of PRCCDA bonds, which are secured by certain hotel tax revenues. These revenues are sensitive to the level of economic activity in the area and are subject to the Clawback Orders, and the bonds are subject to an executive order issued pursuant to the Moratorium Act. There were sufficient funds in the PRCCDA bond accounts to make the July 1, 2016 and January 1, 2017 PRCCDA bond payments guaranteed by the Company, and those payments were made in full.

PRIFA. As of December 31, 2016, the Company had $18 million insured net par outstanding of PRIFA bonds, which are secured primarily by the return to Puerto Rico of federal excise taxes paid on rum. These revenues are subject to the Clawback Orders and the bonds are subject to an executive order issued pursuant to the Moratorium Act. The Company made its first claim payment on PRIFA bonds in January 2016, and has continued to make claim payments on PRIFA bonds.

Other Public Corporations

Puerto Rico Electric Power Authority (PREPA). As of December 31, 2016, the Company had $724 million insured net par outstanding of PREPA obligations, which are payable from a pledge of net revenues of the electric system.

On December 24, 2015, AGM and AGC entered into a Restructuring Support Agreement (RSA) with PREPA, an ad hoc group of uninsured bondholders and a group of fuel-line lenders that would, subject to certain conditions, result in, among other things, modernization of the utility and a restructuring of current debt. Upon finalization of the contemplated restructuring transaction, insured PREPA revenue bonds (with no reduction to par or stated interest rate or extension of maturity) will be supported by securitization bonds issued by a special purpose corporation and secured by a transition charge assessed on ratepayers. To facilitate the securitization transaction and in exchange for a market premium, Assured Guaranty will issue surety insurance policies in an aggregate amount not expected to exceed $113 million ($14 million for AGC and $99 million for AGM) to support a portion of the reserve fund for the securitization bonds. Certain of the creditors also agreed, subject to certain conditions, to participate in a bridge financing, which was closed in two tranches on May 19, 2016 and June 22, 2016. AGM's and AGC's share of the bridge financing was approximately $15 million ($2 million for AGC and $13 million for AGM). Legislation meeting the requirements of the RSA was enacted on February 16, 2016, and a transition charge to be paid by PREPA rate payers for debt service on the securitization bonds as contemplated by the RSA was approved by the Puerto Rico Energy Commission on June 20, 2016. The closing of the restructuring transaction and the issuance of the surety bonds are subject to certain conditions, including execution of acceptable documentation and legal opinions. The RSA has been extended to March 31, 2017.

On July 1, 2016, PREPA made full payment of the $41 million of principal and interest due on PREPA revenue bonds insured by AGM and AGC. That payment was funded in part by AGM’s purchase of $26 million of PREPA bonds maturing in 2020. Upon finalization of the transactions contemplated by the RSA, these new PREPA revenue bonds will be supported by securitization bonds contemplated by the RSA. On January 1, 2017, PREPA made full payment of the $18 million of interest due on PREPA revenue bonds insured by AGM and AGC.

There can be no assurance that the conditions in the RSA will be met or that, if the conditions are met, the RSA's other provisions, including those related to the insured PREPA revenue bonds, will be implemented as currently agreed. In addition, the impact of PROMESA , the Moratorium Act and Emergency Act or any attempt to exercise the power purportedly granted by the Moratorium Act or the Emergency Act on the implementation of the RSA is uncertain. PREPA, during the pendency of the agreements, has suspended deposits into its debt service fund.

Puerto Rico Aqueduct and Sewer Authority (PRASA). As of December 31, 2016, the Company had $373 million of insured net par outstanding to PRASA bonds, which are secured by the gross revenues of the water and sewer system. On September 15, 2015, PRASA entered into a settlement with the U.S.Department of Justice and the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency that requires it to spend $1.6 billion to upgrade and improve its sewer system island-wide. According to a material event notice PRASA filed on March 4, 2016, PRASA owed its contractors $140 million. The PRASA Revitalization Act, which establishes a securitization mechanism that could facilitate debt issuance, was signed into law on July 13, 2016. While certain bonds benefiting from a guarantee by the Commonwealth are subject to an executive order issued under the Moratorium Act, bonds insured by the Company are not subject to that order. There were sufficient funds in the PRASA bond accounts to make the July 1, 2016 and January 1, 2017 PRASA bond payments guaranteed by the Company, and those payments were made in full.
    
Municipal Finance Agency (MFA). As of December 31, 2016, the Company had $334 million net par outstanding of bonds issued by MFA secured by a pledge of local property tax revenues. There were sufficient funds in the MFA bond accounts to make the July 1, 2016 and January 1, 2017 MFA bond payments guaranteed by the Company, and those payments were made in full.

Puerto Rico Sales Tax Financing Corporation (COFINA). As of December 31, 2016, the Company had $271 million insured net par outstanding of junior COFINA bonds, which are secured primarily by a second lien on certain sales and use taxes. There were no debt service payments due on July 1, 2016, or January 1, 2017, on Company-insured COFINA bonds, and, as of the date of this filing, all payments on Company-insured COFINA bonds had been made.

University of Puerto Rico (U of PR). As of December 31, 2016, the Company had $1 million insured net par outstanding of U of PR bonds, which are general obligations of the university and are secured by a subordinate lien on the proceeds, profits and other income of the University, subject to a senior pledge and lien for the benefit of outstanding university system revenue bonds. The U of PR bonds are subject to an executive order issued under the Moratorium Act. There were no debt service payments due on July 1, 2016, or January 1, 2017 on Company-insured U of PR bonds, and, as of the date of this filing, all payments on Company-insured U of PR bonds had been made.

All Puerto Rico exposures are internally rated BIG. The following tables show the Company’s insured exposure to general obligation bonds of Puerto Rico and various obligations of its related authorities and public corporations.

Puerto Rico
Gross Par and Gross Debt Service Outstanding

 
Gross Par Outstanding
 
Gross Debt Service Outstanding
 
December 31,
2016
 
December 31,
2015
 
December 31,
2016
 
December 31,
2015
 
(in millions)
Exposure to Puerto Rico
$
5,435

 
$
5,755

 
$
9,038

 
$
9,632




Puerto Rico
Net Par Outstanding

 
As of
December 31, 2016
 
As of
December 31, 2015
 
(in millions)
Commonwealth Constitutionally Guaranteed
 
 
 
Commonwealth of Puerto Rico - General Obligation Bonds (1)
$
1,476

 
$
1,615

Puerto Rico Public Buildings Authority (1)
169

 
188

Public Corporations - Certain Revenues Potentially Subject to Clawback
 
 
 
PRHTA (Transportation revenue) (1) (2)
918

 
909

PRHTA (Highways revenue)
350

 
370

PRCCDA
152

 
164

PRIFA (1)
18

 
18

Other Public Corporations
 
 
 
PREPA
724

 
744

PRASA
373

 
388

MFA
334

 
387

COFINA
271

 
269

U of PR
1

 
1

Total net exposure to Puerto Rico
$
4,786

 
$
5,053

____________________
(1)    As of the date of this filing, the Company has paid claims on these credits.

(2)    The December 31, 2016 amount includes $46 million of net par from the CIFG Acquisition.    

The following table shows the scheduled amortization of the insured general obligation bonds of Puerto Rico and various obligations of its related authorities and public corporations. The Company guarantees payments of interest and principal when those amounts are scheduled to be paid and cannot be required to pay on an accelerated basis. In the event that obligors default on their obligations, the Company would only be required to pay the shortfall between the principal and interest due in any given period and the amount paid by the obligors.
     
Amortization Schedule of Puerto Rico Net Par Outstanding
and Net Debt Service Outstanding
As of December 31, 2016

 
Scheduled Net Par Amortization
 
Scheduled Net Debt Service Amortization
 
(in millions)
2017 (January 1 - March 31)
$
0

 
$
118

2017 (April 1 - June 30)
0

 
2

2017 (July 1 - September 30)
220

 
339

2017 (October 1 - December 31)
0

 
2

Subtotal 2017
220

 
461

2018
175

 
408

2019
206

 
429

2020
266

 
480

2021
125

 
326

2022-2026
869

 
1,759

2027-2031
889

 
1,534

2032-2036
1,201

 
1,612

2037-2041
417

 
588

2042-2047
418

 
492

Total
$
4,786

 
$
8,089




Exposure to the Selected European Countries

The European countries where the Company has exposure and believes heightened uncertainties exist are: Hungary, Italy, Portugal, Spain and Turkey (collectively, the Selected European Countries). The Company added Turkey to its list of Selected European Countries in 2016, as a result of the recent political turmoil in the country. The Company’s direct economic exposure to the Selected European Countries (based on par for financial guaranty contracts and notional amount for financial guaranty contracts accounted for as derivatives) is shown in the following table, net of ceded reinsurance.
Net Direct Economic Exposure to Selected European Countries(1)
As of December 31, 2016

 
Hungary
 
Italy
 
Portugal
 
Spain
 
Turkey
 
Total
 
(in millions)
Sub-sovereign exposure(2)
$
236

 
$
880

 
$
76

 
$
342

 
$

 
$
1,534

Non-sovereign exposure(3)
114

 
399

 

 

 
202

 
715

Total
$
350

 
$
1,279

 
$
76

 
$
342

 
$
202

 
$
2,249

Total BIG (See Note 5)
$
283

 
$

 
$
76

 
$
342

 
$

 
$
701

____________________
(1)
While exposures are shown in U.S. dollars, the obligations are in various currencies, primarily euros.
 
(2)
Sub-sovereign exposure in Selected European Countries includes transactions backed by receivables from, or supported by, sub-sovereigns, which are governmental or government-backed entities other than the ultimate governing body of the country.

(3)
Non-sovereign exposure in Selected European Countries includes debt of regulated utilities, RMBS and diversified payment rights (DPR) securitizations.

When the Company directly insures an obligation, it assigns the obligation to a geographic location or locations based on its view of the geographic location of the risk. The Company may also have direct exposures to the Selected European Countries in business assumed from unaffiliated monoline insurance companies, in which case the Company depends upon geographic information provided by the primary insurer.

The Company's $202 million net insured par exposure in Turkey is to DPR securitizations sponsored by a major Turkish bank. These DPR securitizations were established outside of Turkey and involve payment orders in U.S. dollars, pounds sterling and Euros from persons outside of Turkey to beneficiaries in Turkey who are customers of the sponsoring bank. The sponsoring bank's correspondent banks have agreed to remit all such payments to a trustee-controlled account outside Turkey, where debt service payments for the DPR securitization are given priority over payments to the sponsoring bank.

The Company has excluded from the exposure tables above its indirect economic exposure to the Selected European Countries through policies it provides on pooled corporate and commercial receivables transactions. The Company calculates indirect exposure to a country by multiplying the par amount of a transaction insured by the Company times the percent of the relevant collateral pool reported as having a nexus to the country. On that basis, the Company has calculated exposure of $115 million to Selected European Countries (plus Greece) in transactions with $2.8 billion of net par outstanding. The indirect exposure to credits with a nexus to Greece is $3 million across several highly rated pooled corporate obligations with net par outstanding of $129 million.
[1]
[1] As of the date of this filing, the Company has paid claims on these credits.