0001273813-16-000084.txt : 20160803 0001273813-16-000084.hdr.sgml : 20160803 20160803162517 ACCESSION NUMBER: 0001273813-16-000084 CONFORMED SUBMISSION TYPE: 8-K PUBLIC DOCUMENT COUNT: 4 CONFORMED PERIOD OF REPORT: 20160803 ITEM INFORMATION: Results of Operations and Financial Condition ITEM INFORMATION: Financial Statements and Exhibits FILED AS OF DATE: 20160803 DATE AS OF CHANGE: 20160803 FILER: COMPANY DATA: COMPANY CONFORMED NAME: ASSURED GUARANTY LTD CENTRAL INDEX KEY: 0001273813 STANDARD INDUSTRIAL CLASSIFICATION: SURETY INSURANCE [6351] IRS NUMBER: 000000000 STATE OF INCORPORATION: D0 FISCAL YEAR END: 1231 FILING VALUES: FORM TYPE: 8-K SEC ACT: 1934 Act SEC FILE NUMBER: 001-32141 FILM NUMBER: 161804210 BUSINESS ADDRESS: STREET 1: 30 WOOD BOURNE AVE CITY: HAMILTON BERMUDA STATE: D0 ZIP: 0000 BUSINESS PHONE: 441-279-5700 MAIL ADDRESS: STREET 1: 30 WOOD BOURNE AVE CITY: HAMILTON BERMUDA STATE: D0 ZIP: 0000 FORMER COMPANY: FORMER CONFORMED NAME: AGR LTD DATE OF NAME CHANGE: 20040122 FORMER COMPANY: FORMER CONFORMED NAME: AGC HOLDINGS LTD DATE OF NAME CHANGE: 20031218 8-K 1 a8-k2q2016agl.htm 8-K Document




UNITED STATES
SECURITIES AND EXCHANGE COMMISSION
Washington, D.C. 20549

FORM 8-K
Current Report
Pursuant to Section 13 or 15 (d) of the
Securities Exchange Act of 1934
Date of Report (Date of earliest event reported) — August 3, 2016

ASSURED GUARANTY LTD.
(Exact name of registrant as specified in its charter)


 
 
 
 
 
Bermuda
 
001-32141
 
98-0429991
(State or other jurisdiction of incorporation or organization)
 
(Commission File Number)
 
(I.R.S. Employer Identification No.)

Assured Guaranty Ltd.
30 Woodbourne Avenue
Hamilton HM 08 Bermuda
(Address of principal executive offices)
 
Registrant’s telephone number, including area code: (441) 279-5700
Not applicable
(Former name or former address, if changed since last report)
Check the appropriate box below if the Form 8-K filing is intended to simultaneously satisfy the filing obligation of the registrant under any of the following provisions (see General Instruction A.2. below):

o Written communications pursuant to Rule 425 under the Securities Act (17 CFR 230.425)
o Soliciting material pursuant to Rule 14a-12 under the Exchange Act (17 CFR 240.14a-12)
o Pre-commencement communications pursuant to Rule 14d-2(b) under the Exchange Act (17 CFR 240.14d‑2(b))
o Pre-commencement communications pursuant to Rule 13e-4(c) under the Exchange Act (17 CFR 240.13e‑4(c))








Item 2.02
Results of Operations and Financial Condition

On August 3, 2016, Assured Guaranty Ltd. issued a press release reporting its second quarter 2016 results and the availability of its June 30, 2016 financial supplement. The press release and the financial supplement are attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1 and Exhibit 99.2, respectively, and are incorporated by reference herein.



Item 9.01
Financial Statements and Exhibits.
(d) Exhibits
Exhibit
Number
Description
99.1
Assured Guaranty Ltd. Press Release dated August 3, 2016 reporting second quarter 2016 results

99.2
June 30, 2016 Financial Supplement of Assured Guaranty Ltd.







SIGNATURES
Pursuant to the requirements of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, the Registrant has duly caused this report to be signed on its behalf by the undersigned thereunto duly authorized.
 
ASSURED GUARANTY LTD. 
 
 
 
 
 
By:
/s/ Robert A. Bailenson
 
 
Name: Robert A. Bailenson
 
 
Title: Chief Financial Officer

DATE: August 3, 2016





EXHIBIT INDEX



Exhibit
Number
Description
99.1
Assured Guaranty Ltd. Press Release dated August 3, 2016 reporting second quarter 2016 results

99.2
June 30, 2016 Financial Supplement of Assured Guaranty Ltd.





EX-99.1 2 agl2q16pressrelease.htm AGL PRESS RELEASE Exhibit

Assured Guaranty Ltd. Reports Results for Second Quarter 2016

Net income was $146 million, or $1.09 per share, for second quarter 2016, compared with $297 million, or $1.96 per share, for second quarter 2015.

Operating income1 was $139 million, or $1.03 per share, for second quarter 2016, compared with $278 million, or $1.83 per share, for second quarter 2015.

Shareholders' equity per share was $47.06, operating shareholders' equity1 per share was $45.26 and adjusted book value1 per share was $61.86.

Second quarter 2016 share repurchases totaled $60 million, or 2.3 million shares.

Assured Guaranty Corp. acquired CIFG Holding Inc. on July 1, 2016.


Hamilton, Bermuda, August 3, 2016 -- Assured Guaranty Ltd. (NYSE: AGO) (AGL and, together with its consolidated entities, Assured Guaranty or the Company) announced today its financial results for the three-month period ended June 30, 2016 (second quarter 2016).

Summary Financial Results
(in millions, except per share amounts)

 
Quarter Ended
 
June 30,
 
2016
 
2015
 
 
 
 
Net income
$
146

 
$
297

Operating income1
139

 
278

 
 
 
 
Net income per diluted share
$
1.09

 
$
1.96

Operating income1 per diluted share
1.03

 
1.83

 
 
 
 
Diluted shares2
134.8

 
151.6

 
 
 
 
Gross written premiums
$
36

 
$
22

PVP1
41

 
26

Gross par written
4,775

 
5,581



1 Please see “Explanation of Non-GAAP Financial Measures” at the end of this press release.
2 Diluted shares for generally accepted accounting principles (GAAP) net income and non-GAAP operating income were the same.

1


Summary Financial Results (continued)
(in millions, except per share amounts)

 
As of
 
June 30, 2016
 
December 31, 2015
 
Amount
 
Per Share
 
Amount
 
Per Share
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Shareholders' equity
$
6,250

 
$
47.06

 
$
6,063

 
$
43.96

Operating shareholders' equity1
6,011

 
45.26

 
5,946

 
43.11

Adjusted book value1
8,215

 
61.86

 
8,439

 
61.18

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Common shares outstanding
132.8

 
 
 
137.9

 
 
________________________________________________
(1)
Please see “Explanation of Non-GAAP Financial Measures” at the end of this press release.

“Assured Guaranty had a solid second quarter,” said Dominic Frederico, President and CEO. “We continued to build our financial strength, and furthered our strategic objectives on July 1 when we completed our acquisition of CIFG.

“S&P Global Ratings took note of our positive risk-adjusted pricing trend in its July 27th report affirming our AA financial strength ratings,” he added.  “In the report, S&P said that none of the severe stress scenarios it applied to our Puerto Rico exposure reduced our ‘very strong’ capital adequacy score.”

Second Quarter Results

GAAP Financial Information

Net income for second quarter 2016 was $146 million, compared with net income of $297 million for the three-month period ended June 30, 2015 (second quarter 2015). Net income was higher in second quarter 2015 compared with second quarter 2016 due primarily to the gains recognized upon the acquisition of Radian Asset Assurance Inc. (Radian Asset) in second quarter 2015. This was offset in part by lower loss and loss adjustment expenses (LAE) in second quarter 2016 compared with second quarter 2015.

Except for credit impairment, the fair value adjustments on credit derivatives in the insured portfolio are non-economic adjustments that reverse to zero over the remaining term of the portfolio. Fair value gains on credit derivatives were $63 million in second quarter 2016, and were generated primarily by terminations of several transactions. Fair value gains on credit derivatives in second quarter 2015 were $90 million, primarily driven by tighter implied net spreads as a result of the increased cost to buy protection in Assured Guaranty Corp. and Assured Guaranty Municipal Corp.

Loss and LAE incurred was $102 million in second quarter 2016, and $188 million in second quarter 2015. In both periods, the primary component of loss and LAE was an increase in loss reserves on Puerto Rico exposures.





2


Consolidated Statements of Operations (unaudited)
(in millions)

 
Quarter Ended
 
June 30,
 
2016
 
2015
Revenues:
 
 
 
Net earned premiums
$
214

 
$
219

Net investment income
98

 
98

Net realized investment gains (losses)
10

 
(9
)
Net change in fair value of credit derivatives:
 
 
 
Realized gains (losses) and other settlements
24

 
8

Net unrealized gains (losses)
39

 
82

Net change in fair value of credit derivatives
63

 
90

Fair value gains (losses) on committed capital securities (CCS)
(11
)
 
23

Fair value gains (losses) on financial guaranty variable interest entities (FG VIEs)
4

 
5

Bargain purchase gain and settlement of pre-existing relationship

 
214

Other income (loss)
18

 
55

Total revenues
396

 
695

Expenses:
 
 
 
Loss and LAE
102

 
188

Amortization of deferred acquisition costs
5

 
6

Interest expense
25

 
26

Other operating expenses
63

 
66

Total expenses
195

 
286

Income (loss) before income taxes
201

 
409

Provision (benefit) for income taxes
55

 
112

Net income (loss)
$
146


$
297




3


Economic Loss Development

Economic loss development in second quarter 2016 was $22 million, comprising $109 million in loss development in the public finance sector and a benefit of $87 million in the structured finance sector. These amounts include an aggregate $45 million in loss development for all sectors, attributable to the decline in discount rates.

The economic loss development of $109 million in the public finance sector includes losses of $29 million related to the decline in discount rates. The remainder of the loss development was driven by increases in expected losses on various Puerto Rico exposures. The benefit for U.S. residential mortgage-backed securities (RMBS) of $81 million was due mainly to the acceleration of claim payments as a means of mitigating future losses on certain Alt-A transactions.

Roll Forward of Net Expected Loss to be Paid (1)
(in millions)

 
 
Net Expected Loss to be Paid (Recovered) as of March 31, 2016
 
Economic Loss Development/ (Benefit)
 
Losses (Paid)/ Recovered
 
 Net Expected Loss to be Paid (Recovered) as of June 30, 2016
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Public finance
 
$
903

 
$
109

 
$
(12
)
 
$
1,000

U.S. RMBS:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Before representations and warranties (R&W) payable (recoverable)
 
340

 
(107
)
 
(99
)
 
134

R&W payable (recoverable) (2)
 
(47
)
 
26

 
79

 
58

U.S. RMBS
 
293

 
(81
)
 
(20
)
 
192

Other structured finance
 
141

 
(6
)
 
(1
)
 
134

Total
 
$
1,337

 
$
22

 
$
(33
)
 
$
1,326

________________________________________________
(1)
Economic loss development represents the change in net expected loss to be paid attributable to the effects of changes in assumptions based on observed market trends, changes in discount rates, accretion of discount and the economic effects of loss mitigation efforts. Economic loss development is the principal measure that the Company uses to evaluate the loss experience in its insured portfolio. Expected loss to be paid includes all transactions insured by the Company, whether written in insurance or credit derivative form, regardless of the accounting model prescribed under GAAP.

(2) The Company’s agreements with R&W providers generally provide that, as the Company makes claim payments, the R&W providers reimburse it for those claims; if the Company later receives reimbursement through the transaction (for example, from excess spread), the Company repays the R&W providers. When the Company projects receiving more reimbursements in the future than it projects paying in claims on transactions covered by R&W settlement agreements, the Company will have a net R&W payable.


4


New Business Production

New Business Production
(in millions)

 
Quarter Ended June 30,
 
2016
 
2015
 
Gross Written Premiums
 
PVP(1)
 
Gross Par Written
 
Gross Written Premiums
 
PVP(1)
 
Gross Par Written
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Public finance - U.S.
$
33

 
$
33

 
$
4,366

 
$
23

 
$
25

 
$
5,581

Public finance - non - U.S.
7

 
7

 
406

 
(1
)
 

 

Structured finance - U.S.
(3
)
 
1

 
3

 
0

 
1

 

Structured finance - non-U.S.
(1
)
 

 

 
0

 

 

Total
$
36

 
$
41

 
$
4,775

 
$
22

 
$
26

 
$
5,581

________________________________________________
(1)
Please see “Explanation of Non-GAAP Financial Measures” at the end of this press release.

Gross written premiums in second quarter 2016 were $36 million, compared to $22 million in second quarter 2015. Gross written premiums include amounts collected upfront on financial guaranty insurance new business written, as well as the present value of contractual or expected premiums discounted at risk free rates, and the effects of changes in the estimated lives of in-force financial guaranty insurance contracts consisting of homogeneous pools of assets. The increase in gross written premiums was primarily attributable to the increase in new business written in the public finance sector.

U.S. public finance PVP increased to $33 million in second quarter 2016 from $25 million in second quarter 2015, representing an increase of 32%. The average premium rate increased compared with second quarter 2015 while the average rating of par written remained in the A- category. During second quarter 2016, Assured Guaranty once again guaranteed the majority of insured par issued. Non-U.S. public finance PVP in second quarter 2016 represents secondary market financial guarantees written on utility bonds.

Other Non-GAAP Financial Measures

Operating income was $139 million in second quarter 2016, compared with operating income of $278 million in second quarter 2015. Operating income was higher in second quarter 2015 compared with second quarter 2016 due primarily to the gains recognized upon the acquisition of Radian Asset in second quarter 2015. This was offset in part by lower loss and LAE in second quarter 2016 compared with second quarter 2015.

Total operating net earned premiums and credit derivative revenues in second quarter 2016 were $248 million, compared with $259 million in second quarter 2015. The acceleration of operating net earned premiums and credit derivative revenues was $136 million in second quarter 2016, compared with $98 million in second quarter 2015. On an operating income basis, credit derivative contracts and FG VIEs are accounted for as financial guaranty insurance.




5


Common Share Repurchases

As of August 3, 2016, the Company's remaining share repurchase authorization was $150 million.

Summary of Share Repurchases
(in millions, except per share amounts)

 
Amount
 
Number of Shares
 
Average Price Per Share
 
 
 
 
 
 
2013
$
264

 
12.5

 
$
21.12

2014
590

 
24.4

 
24.17

2015
555

 
21.0

 
26.43

2016 (January 1 - March 31)
75

 
3.0

 
24.69

2016 (April 1 - June 30, 2016)
60

 
2.3

 
25.73

2016 (July 1 - through August 3, 2016)
20

 
0.9

 
25.89

Total 2016
155

 
6.2

 
25.24

Cumulative repurchases since the beginning of 2013
$
1,564

 
64.1

 
$
24.42


As in the past, the Company's execution of its capital management strategy is contingent upon its available free cash and the capital position of the parent company, market conditions, the maintenance of its strong financial strength ratings and other factors. The repurchase program may be modified, extended or terminated by the board of directors at any time. It does not have an expiration date.

On a per-share basis, shareholders' equity, operating shareholders' equity and adjusted book value increased in second quarter 2016 in part due to the Company's repurchase of its common shares.



6


Consolidated Balance Sheets (unaudited)
(in millions)
 
As of
 
June 30, 2016
 
December 31, 2015
Assets
 
 
 
Investment portfolio:
 
 
 
Fixed maturity securities, available-for-sale, at fair value
$
9,960

 
$
10,627

Short-term investments, at fair value
585

 
396

Other invested assets
170

 
169

Total investment portfolio
10,715

 
11,192

Cash
190

 
166

Premiums receivable, net of commissions payable
623

 
693

Ceded unearned premium reserve
228

 
232

Deferred acquisition costs
110

 
114

Reinsurance recoverable on unpaid losses
82

 
69

Salvage and subrogation recoverable
323

 
126

Credit derivative assets
36

 
81

Deferred tax asset, net
235

 
276

Current income tax receivable

 
40

Funds restricted for CIFG acquisition
451

 

FG VIE assets, at fair value
814

 
1,261

Other assets
285

 
294

Total assets
$
14,092

 
$
14,544

Liabilities and shareholders' equity
 
 
 
Liabilities
 
 
 
Unearned premium reserve
$
3,617

 
$
3,996

Loss and LAE reserve
1,268

 
1,067

Reinsurance balances payable, net
56

 
51

Long-term debt
1,303

 
1,300

Credit derivative liabilities
432

 
446

Current income tax payable
19

 

FG VIE liabilities with recourse, at fair value
790

 
1,225

FG VIE liabilities without recourse, at fair value
115

 
124

Other liabilities
242

 
272

Total liabilities
7,842

 
8,481

Shareholders' equity
 
 
 
Common stock
1

 
1

Additional paid-in capital
1,213

 
1,342

Retained earnings
4,648

 
4,478

Accumulated other comprehensive income
383

 
237

Deferred equity compensation
5

 
5

Total shareholders' equity
6,250

 
6,063

Total liabilities and shareholders' equity
$
14,092

 
$
14,544



7


Explanation of Non-GAAP Financial Measures

The Company references financial measures that are not in accordance with GAAP. Management and the Board of Directors use non-GAAP financial measures, as well as GAAP financial measures and other factors, to evaluate the Company’s results of operations, financial condition and progress towards long-term goals. By disclosing non-GAAP financial measures, the Company gives investors, analysts and financial news reporters access to some of the same information that management and the Board of Directors review internally. Assured Guaranty believes its presentation of non-GAAP financial measures is consistent with how analysts calculate their estimates of Assured Guaranty’s financial results in their research reports on Assured Guaranty and with how investors, analysts and the financial news media evaluate Assured Guaranty’s financial results.

Many investors, analysts and financial news reporters use operating shareholders’ equity as the principal financial measure for valuing AGL’s current share price or projected share price and also as the basis of their decision to recommend, buy or sell AGL’s common shares. Many of the Company’s fixed income investors also use operating shareholders’ equity to evaluate the Company’s capital adequacy. Many investors, analysts and financial news reporters also use adjusted book value to evaluate AGL’s share price and as the basis of their decision to recommend, buy or sell the AGL common shares. Operating income enables investors and analysts to evaluate the Company’s financial results as compared with the consensus analyst estimates distributed publicly by financial databases. Two non-GAAP financial measures, growth in adjusted book value per share and operating income, are key measures used to help determine compensation.
 
The following paragraphs and tables define each non-GAAP financial measure disclosed by the Company and describe why it is useful. A reconciliation of the non-GAAP financial measure and the most directly comparable GAAP financial measure is presented below.

Operating Income

Management believes that operating income is a useful measure because it presents the results of operations of the Company with all financial guaranty contracts accounted for on a consistent basis and excludes fair value adjustments that are not expected to result in economic gain or loss, which clarifies the understanding of the underwriting results and financial condition of the Company. Operating income is defined as net income (loss) attributable to AGL, as reported under GAAP, adjusted for the following:
 
1)
Elimination of realized gains (losses) on the Company’s investments, except for gains and losses on securities classified as trading. The timing of realized gains and losses, which depends largely on market credit cycles, can vary considerably across periods. The timing of sales is largely subject to the Company’s discretion and influenced by market opportunities, as well as the Company’s tax and capital profile.

2)
Elimination of non-credit-impairment unrealized fair value gains (losses) on credit derivatives, which is the amount in excess of the present value of the expected estimated economic credit losses, and non-economic payments. Such fair value adjustments are heavily affected by, and in part fluctuate with, changes in market interest rates, credit spreads and other market factors and are not expected to result in an economic gain or loss. Additionally, this adjustment presents all financial guaranty


8


contracts on a more consistent basis of accounting, whether or not they are subject to derivative accounting rules.
 
3)
Elimination of fair value gains (losses) on the Company’s CCS. Such amounts are heavily affected by, and in part fluctuate with, changes in market interest rates, credit spreads and other market factors and are not expected to result in an economic gain or loss.
 
4)
Elimination of foreign exchange gains (losses) on remeasurement of net premium receivables and loss and LAE reserves. Long-dated receivables and loss and LAE reserves represent the present value of future contractual or expected cash flows. Therefore, the current period’s foreign exchange remeasurement gains (losses) are not necessarily indicative of the total foreign exchange gains (losses) that the Company will ultimately recognize.
 
5)
Elimination of the effects of consolidating FG VIEs. GAAP requires the Company to consolidate certain VIEs that have issued debt obligations insured by the Company even though the Company does not own such VIEs. This adjustment presents all financial guaranty contracts on a more consistent basis of accounting, whether or not GAAP requires consolidation.

6) Elimination of the tax effects related to the above adjustments, which are determined by applying the statutory tax rate in each of the jurisdictions that generate these adjustments.

Summary Reconciliation of
GAAP Net Income to Non-GAAP Operating Income (1)
(in millions)

 
Quarter Ended
 
June 30,
 
2016
 
2015
 
 
 
 
Net income (loss)
$
146

 
$
297

Less pre-tax adjustments:
 
 
 
Realized gains (losses) on investments
9

 
(12
)
Non-credit impairment unrealized fair value gains (losses) on credit derivatives
32

 
10

Fair value gains (losses) on CCS
(11
)
 
22

Foreign exchange gains (losses) on remeasurement of premiums receivable and loss and LAE reserves
(17
)
 
13

Effect of consolidating FG VIEs
(3
)
 
4

Total pre-tax adjustments
10

 
37

Less tax effect on pre-tax adjustments
(3
)
 
(18
)
Operating income
$
139

 
$
278

________________________________________________
(1)
The non-GAAP measures presented in the table above should not be considered a substitute for financial results and measures determined or calculated in accordance with GAAP.


9


Detailed Reconciliation of GAAP Net Income
to Non-GAAP Operating Income (1)
(in millions, except per share amounts)

 
Quarter Ended June 30, 2016
 
Quarter Ended June 30, 2015
 
GAAP Income Statement Line Items As Reported
 
Less: Operating Income Adjustments
 
Non-GAAP Operating Income Components
 
GAAP Income Statement Line Items As Reported
 
Less: Operating Income Adjustments
 
Non-GAAP Operating Income Components
Revenues:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net earned premiums
$
214

 
$
(3
)
 
$
217

 
$
219

 
$
(5
)
 
$
224

Net investment income
98

 
5

 
93

 
98

 
(1
)
 
99

Net realized investment gains (losses)
10

 
10

 

 
(9
)
 
(9
)
 
0

Net change in fair value of credit derivatives:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Realized gains (losses) and other settlements
24

 
24

 

 
8

 
8

 

Net unrealized gains (losses)
39

 
44

 
(5
)
 
82

 
82

 

Credit derivative revenues

 
(31
)
 
31

 

 
(35
)
 
35

Net change in fair value of credit derivatives
63

 
37

 
26

 
90

 
55

 
35

Fair value gains (losses) on CCS
(11
)
 
(11
)
 

 
23

 
23

 

Fair value gains (losses) on FG VIEs
4

 
4

 

 
5

 
5

 

Bargain purchase gain and settlement of pre-existing relationships

 

 

 
214

 
(35
)
 
249

Other income (loss)
18

 
(18
)
 
36

 
55

 
13

 
42

Total revenues
396

 
24

 
372

 
695

 
46

 
649

Expenses:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Loss and LAE:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Financial guaranty insurance
102

 
3

 
99

 
188

 
(1
)
 
189

Credit derivatives

 
11

 
(11
)
 

 
9

 
(9
)
Amortization of deferred acquisition costs
5

 
0

 
5

 
6

 
0

 
6

Interest expense
25

 

 
25

 
26

 

 
26

Other operating expenses
63

 
0

 
63

 
66

 
1

 
65

Total expenses
195

 
14

 
181

 
286

 
9

 
277

Income (loss) before income taxes
201

 
10

 
191

 
409

 
37

 
372

Provision (benefit) for income taxes
55

 
3

 
52

 
112

 
18

 
94

Income (loss)
$
146

 
$
7

 
$
139

 
$
297

 
$
19

 
$
278

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Diluted shares
134.8

 
 
 
134.8

 
151.6

 
 
 
151.6

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Per share
$
1.09

 
 
 
$
1.03

 
$
1.96

 
 
 
$
1.83

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Effective tax rate
26.9
%
 
 
 
27.4
%
 
27.5
%
 
 
 
25.4
%
________________________________________________
(1) The non-GAAP measures presented in the table above should not be considered a substitute for financial results and measures determined or calculated in accordance with GAAP.


10


Operating Shareholders’ Equity and Adjusted Book Value

Management believes that operating shareholders’ equity is a useful measure because it presents the equity of the Company with all financial guaranty contracts accounted for on a consistent basis and excludes fair value adjustments that are not expected to result in economic gain or loss, which clarifies the understanding of the underwriting results and financial condition of the Company. Operating shareholders’ equity is the basis of the calculation of adjusted book value (see below). Operating shareholders’ equity is defined as shareholders’ equity attributable to AGL, as reported under GAAP, adjusted for the following:
 
1)
Elimination of the effects of consolidating FG VIEs in order to present all financial guaranty contracts on a more consistent basis of accounting, whether or not GAAP requires consolidation. GAAP requires the Company to consolidate certain VIEs that have issued debt obligations insured by the Company even though the Company does not own such VIEs.
 
2)
Elimination of non-credit-impairment unrealized fair value gains (losses) on credit derivatives, which is the amount in excess of the present value of the expected estimated economic credit losses, and non-economic payments. Such fair value adjustments are heavily affected by, and in part fluctuate with, changes in market interest rates, credit spreads and other market factors and are not expected to result in an economic gain or loss.
 
3)
Elimination of fair value gains (losses) on the Company’s CCS. Such amounts are heavily affected by, and in part fluctuate with, changes in market interest rates, credit spreads and other market factors and are not expected to result in an economic gain or loss.
 
4)
Elimination of unrealized gains (losses) on the Company’s investments that are recorded as a component of accumulated other comprehensive income (AOCI) (excluding foreign exchange remeasurement). The AOCI component of the fair value adjustment on the investment portfolio is not deemed economic because the Company generally holds these investments to maturity and therefore should not recognize an economic gain or loss.

 5) Elimination of the tax asset or liability related to the above adjustments, which are determined by applying the statutory tax rate in each of the jurisdictions that generate these adjustments.
 
Management uses adjusted book value to measure the intrinsic value of the Company, excluding franchise value. Growth in adjusted book value per share is one of the key financial measures used in determining the amount of certain long term compensation to management and employees and used by rating agencies and investors. Management believes that adjusted book value is a useful measure because it enables an evaluation of the net present value of the Company’s in-force premiums and revenues net of expected losses. Adjusted book value is operating shareholders’ equity, as defined above, further adjusted for the following:
 
1)
Elimination of deferred acquisition costs, net. These amounts represent net deferred expenses that have already been paid or accrued and will be expensed in future accounting periods.
 
2)
Addition of the net present value of estimated net future credit derivative revenue. See below.
 


11


3)
Addition of the deferred premium revenue on financial guaranty contracts in excess of expected loss to be expensed, net of reinsurance. This amount represents the expected future net earned premiums, net of expected losses to be expensed, which are not reflected in GAAP equity.

4) Elimination of the tax asset or liability related to the above adjustments, which are determined by applying the statutory tax rate in each of the jurisdictions that generate these adjustments.

The premiums and revenues included in adjusted book value will be earned in future periods, but actual earnings may differ materially from the estimated amounts used in determining current adjusted book value due to changes in foreign exchange rates, prepayment speeds, terminations, credit defaults and other factors.

Reconciliation of GAAP Shareholders' Equity to
Operating Shareholders' Equity (1) and Adjusted Book Value (1)
(in millions, except per share amounts)

 
As of
 
June 30, 2016
 
December 31, 2015
 
 
 
 
Shareholders' equity
$
6,250

 
$
6,063

Less pre-tax adjustments:
 
 
 
Effect of consolidating FG VIEs
(18
)
 
(35
)
Non-credit impairment unrealized fair value gains (losses) on credit derivatives
(265
)
 
(241
)
Fair value gains (losses) on CCS
35

 
62

Unrealized gain (loss) on investment portfolio excluding foreign exchange effect
598

 
376

Taxes
(111
)
 
(45
)
Operating shareholders' equity
6,011

 
5,946

Pre-tax adjustments:
 
 
 
Less: Deferred acquisition costs
110

 
114

Plus: Net present value of estimated net future credit derivative revenue
93

 
169

Plus: Net unearned premium reserve on financial guaranty contracts in excess of expected loss to be expensed
3,073

 
3,417

Taxes
(852
)
 
(979
)
Adjusted book value
$
8,215

 
$
8,439

 
 
 
 
Shares outstanding at the end of the period
132.8

 
137.9

 
 
 
 
Per share:
 
 
 
Shareholders' equity
$
47.06

 
$
43.96

Operating shareholders' equity
45.26

 
43.11

Adjusted book value
61.86

 
61.18

________________________________________________
(1)
The non-GAAP financial measures presented in the table above should not be considered a substitute for financial results and measures determined or calculated in accordance with GAAP.



12


Net Present Value of Estimated Net Future Credit Derivative Revenue


Management believes that this amount is a useful measure because it enables an evaluation of the value of future estimated credit derivative revenue. There is no corresponding GAAP financial measure. This amount represents the present value of estimated future revenue from the Company’s credit derivative in-force book of business, net of reinsurance, ceding commissions and premium taxes, for contracts without expected economic losses, and is discounted at 6%. Estimated net future credit derivative revenue may change from period to period due to changes in foreign exchange rates, prepayment speeds, terminations, credit defaults or other factors that affect par outstanding or the ultimate maturity of an obligation.

PVP or Present Value of New Business Production

Management believes that PVP is a useful measure because it enables the evaluation of the value of new business production for the Company by taking into account the value of estimated future installment premiums on all new contracts underwritten in a reporting period as well as premium supplements and additional installment premium on existing contracts as to which the issuer has the right to call the insured obligation but has not exercised such right, whether in insurance or credit derivative contract form, which GAAP gross written premiums and the net credit derivative premiums received and receivable portion of net realized gains and other settlements on credit derivatives (Credit Derivative Revenues) do not adequately measure. PVP in respect of financial guaranty contracts written in a specified period is defined as gross upfront and installment premiums received and the present value of gross estimated future installment premiums, in each case, discounted at 6%. For purposes of the PVP calculation, management discounts estimated future installment premiums on insurance contracts at 6%, while under GAAP, these amounts are discounted at a risk free rate. Additionally, under GAAP, management records future installment premiums on financial guaranty insurance contracts covering non-homogeneous pools of assets based on the contractual term of the transaction, whereas for PVP purposes, management records an estimate of the future installment premiums the Company expects to receive, which may be based upon a shorter period of time than the contractual term of the transaction. Actual future net earned or written premiums and Credit Derivative Revenues may differ from PVP due to factors including, but not limited to, changes in foreign exchange rates, prepayment speeds, terminations, credit defaults, or other factors that affect par outstanding or the ultimate maturity of an obligation. 



13


Reconciliation of PVP
to Gross Written Premiums (1)
(in millions)

 
 
Quarter Ended
 
 
June 30, 2016
 
 
Public Finance
 
Structured Finance
 
 
 
 
U.S.
 
Non - U.S.
 
U.S.
 
Non - U.S.
 
Total
Total PVP
 
$
33

 
$
7

 
$
1

 
$

 
$
41

Less: PVP of non-financial guaranty insurance
 

 

 
1

 

 
1

Less: Financial guaranty installment premium PVP
 

 
7

 

 

 
7

Plus: Installment gross written premiums and other GAAP adjustments(2)
 
0

 
7

 
(3
)
 
(1
)
 
3

Total gross written premiums
 
$
33

 
$
7

 
$
(3
)
 
$
(1
)
 
$
36


 
 
Quarter Ended
 
 
June 30, 2015
 
 
Public Finance
 
Structured Finance
 
 
 
 
U.S.
 
Non - U.S.
 
U.S.
 
Non - U.S.
 
Total
Total PVP
 
$
25

 
$

 
$
1

 
$

 
$
26

Less: PVP of non-financial guaranty insurance
 

 

 
0

 

 
0

Less: Financial guaranty installment premium PVP
 

 

 
1

 

 
1

Plus: Installment gross written premiums and other GAAP adjustments(2)
 
(2
)
 
(1
)
 
0

 
0

 
(3
)
Total gross written premiums
 
$
23

 
$
(1
)
 
$
0

 
$
0

 
$
22

________________________________________________
(1)
The non-GAAP financial measures presented in the table above should not be considered a substitute for financial results and measures determined or calculated in accordance with GAAP.
(2)
Includes present value of new business on installment policies discounted at the prescribed GAAP discount rates, gross written premium adjustments on existing installment policies due to changes in assumptions, any cancellations of assumed reinsurance contracts, and other GAAP adjustments.





14


Conference Call and Webcast Information

The Company will host a conference call for investors at 8:00 a.m. Eastern Time (9:00 a.m. Atlantic Time) on Thursday, August 4, 2016. The conference call will be available via live and archived webcast in the Investor Information section of the Company's website at AssuredGuaranty.com or by dialing 1-877-281-1545 (in the U.S.) or 1-412-902-6609 (International). A replay of the call will be made available through November 4, 2016. To listen to the replay, dial 1-877-344-7529 (in the U.S.) or 1-412-317-0088 (International), passcode 10089860. The replay will be available one hour after the conference call ends.

Please refer to Assured Guaranty's June 30, 2016 Financial Supplement, which is posted on the Company's website at assuredguaranty.com/investor-information/by-company/assured-guaranty-ltd, for more information on the Company's financial guaranty portfolios, investment portfolio and other items. The Company is also posting on the same page of its website:

“Public Finance Transactions in 2Q 2016,” which lists the U.S. public finance new issues insured by the Company in second quarter 2016, and

“Structured Finance Transactions at June 30, 2016,” which lists the Company's structured finance exposure as of that date.

In addition, the Company is posting at assuredguaranty.com/presentations the “June 30, 2016 Equity Investor Presentation.” Furthermore, the Company's separate-company subsidiary financial supplements and its Fixed Income Presentation for the current quarter will be posted on the Company's website when available. Those documents will be furnished to the Securities and Exchange Commission in a Current Report on Form 8-K.

# # #


Assured Guaranty Ltd. is a publicly traded (NYSE: AGO) Bermuda-based holding company. Its operating subsidiaries provide credit enhancement products to the U.S. and international public finance, infrastructure and structured finance markets. More information on Assured Guaranty Ltd. and its subsidiaries can be found at AssuredGuaranty.com.




15


Cautionary Statement Regarding Forward-Looking Statements

Any forward-looking statements made in this press release reflect the Company's current views with respect to future events and financial performance and are made pursuant to the safe harbor provisions of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Such statements involve risks and uncertainties that may cause actual results to differ materially from those set forth in these statements. For example, Assured Guaranty's calculations of adjusted book value, PVP, net present value of estimated future installment premiums in force and total estimated net future premium earnings and statements regarding its capital position and demand for its insurance and other forward-looking statements could be affected by rating agency action, including a ratings downgrade, a change in outlook, the placement of ratings on watch for downgrade, or a change in rating criteria, at any time, of AGL or any of its subsidiaries, and/or of any securities AGL or any of its subsidiaries have issued, and/or of transactions that AGL’s subsidiaries have insured; reduction in the amount of available insurance opportunities and/or in the demand for Assured Guaranty's insurance; developments in the world’s financial and capital markets that adversely affect obligors’ payment rates, Assured Guaranty’s loss experience, or its exposure to refinancing risk in transactions (which could result in substantial liquidity claims on its guarantees); the possibility that budget or pension shortfalls or other factors will result in credit losses or impairments on obligations of state, territorial and local governments and their related authorities and public corporations that Assured Guaranty insures or reinsures; the failure of Assured Guaranty to realize loss recoveries that are assumed in its expected loss estimates; deterioration in the financial condition of Assured Guaranty’s reinsurers, the amount and timing of reinsurance recoverables actually received and the risk that reinsurers may dispute amounts owed to Assured Guaranty under its reinsurance agreements; increased competition, including from new entrants into the financial guaranty industry; rating agency action on obligors, including sovereign debtors, resulting in a reduction in the value of securities in Assured Guaranty's investment portfolio and in collateral posted by and to Assured Guaranty; the inability of Assured Guaranty to access external sources of capital on acceptable terms; changes in the world’s credit markets, segments thereof, interest rates or general economic conditions; the impact of market volatility on the mark-to-market of Assured Guaranty’s contracts written in credit default swap form; changes in applicable accounting policies or practices; changes in applicable laws or regulations, including insurance, bankruptcy and tax laws, or other governmental actions; the impact of changes in the world’s economy and credit and currency markets and in applicable laws or regulations relating to the decision of the United Kingdom to exit the European Union; difficulties with the execution of Assured Guaranty’s business strategy; loss of key personnel; the effects of mergers, acquisitions and divestitures; natural or man-made catastrophes; other risks and uncertainties that have not been identified at this time; management’s response to these factors; and other risk factors identified in AGL’s filings with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. Readers are cautioned not to place undue reliance on these forward-looking statements. These forward-looking statements are made as of August 3, 2016, and Assured Guaranty undertakes no obligation to update publicly or review any forward-looking statement, whether as a result of new information, future developments or otherwise, except as required by law.



16


Contact Information

Robert Tucker
Senior Managing Director, Investor Relations and Corporate Communications
212-339-0861
rtucker@assuredguaranty.com

Ashweeta Durani
Vice President, Corporate Communications
212-408-6042
adurani@assuredguaranty.com







17
EX-99.2 3 agl2q16supplement.htm AGL FINANCIAL SUPPLEMENT Exhibit



Assured Guaranty Ltd.
June 30, 2016
Financial Supplement

Table of Contents
 
 
Page
 
Selected Financial Highlights
1
 
Consolidated Balance Sheets (unaudited)
2
 
Consolidated Statements of Operations (unaudited)
3
 
Net Income (Loss) Reconciliation to Operating Income
4
 
Selected Financial Highlights Non-GAAP Reconciliations
6
 
Operating Shareholders' Equity and Adjusted Book Value
7
 
Claims-Paying Resources
8
 
New Business Production
9
 
Gross Par Written
10
 
New Business Production by Quarter
11
 
Available-for-Sale Investment Portfolio and Cash
12
 
Estimated Net Exposure Amortization and Estimated Future Net Premium and Credit Derivative Revenues
13
 
Expected Amortization of Net Par Outstanding
14
 
Present Value of Net Expected Loss to be Expensed
15
 
Financial Guaranty Profile
16
 
Exposure to Puerto Rico
20
 
Direct Pooled Corporate Obligations Profile
23
 
Consolidated U.S. RMBS Profile
24
 
Below Investment Grade Exposures
25
 
Largest Exposures by Sector
30
 
Rollforward of Net Expected Loss and Loss Adjustment Expenses to be Paid After Benefit for R&W
34
 
Loss Measures
35
 
Summary of Financial and Statistical Data
36
 
Summary of Non-GAAP Financial Measures
37
 
Glossary
39
 
Non-GAAP Financial Measures
42

This financial supplement should be read in conjunction with documents filed by Assured Guaranty Ltd. (‘‘AGL’’ and, together with its subsidiaries, ‘‘Assured Guaranty’’ or the ‘‘Company’’) with the Securities and Exchange Commission ("SEC"), including its Annual Report on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2015 and its Quarterly Report on Form 10-Q for the quarterly periods ended March 31, 2016 and June 30, 2016.

Some amounts in this financial supplement may not add due to rounding.

Cautionary Statement Regarding Forward Looking Statements:

Any forward looking statements made in this supplement reflect the current views of Assured Guaranty with respect to future events and financial performance and are made pursuant to the safe harbor provisions of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Such statements involve risks and uncertainties that may cause actual results to differ materially from those set forth in these statements. Assured Guaranty's forward looking statements could be affected by many events. These events include (1) rating agency action, including a ratings downgrade, a change in outlook, the placement of ratings on watch for downgrade, or a change in rating criteria, at any time, of AGL or any of its subsidiaries, and/or of any securities AGL or any of its subsidiaries have issued, and/or of transactions that AGL’s subsidiaries have insured; (2) reduction in the amount of available insurance opportunities and/or in the demand for Assured Guaranty's insurance; (3) developments in the world’s financial and capital markets that adversely affect obligors’ payment rates, Assured Guaranty’s loss experience, or its exposure to refinancing risk in transactions (which could result in substantial liquidity claims on its guarantees); (4) the possibility that budget or pension shortfalls or other factors will result in credit losses or impairments on obligations of state, territorial and local governments and their related authorities and public corporations that Assured Guaranty insures or reinsures; (5) the failure of Assured Guaranty to realize loss recoveries that are assumed in its expected loss estimates; (6) deterioration in the financial condition of Assured Guaranty’s reinsurers, the amount and timing of reinsurance recoverables actually received and the risk that reinsurers may dispute amounts owed to Assured Guaranty under its reinsurance agreements; (7) increased competition, including from new entrants into the financial guaranty industry; (8) rating agency action on obligors, including sovereign debtors, resulting in a reduction in the value of securities in Assured Guaranty’s investment portfolio and in collateral posted by and to Assured Guaranty; (9) the inability of Assured Guaranty to access external sources of capital on acceptable terms; (10) changes in the world’s credit markets, segments thereof, interest rates or general economic conditions; (11) the impact of market volatility on the mark-to-market of Assured Guaranty’s contracts written in credit default swap form; (12) changes in applicable accounting policies or practices; (13) changes in applicable laws or regulations, including insurance, bankruptcy and tax laws, or other governmental actions; (14) the impact of changes in the world’s economy and credit and currency markets and in applicable laws or regulations relating to the decision of the United Kingdom to exit the European Union;(15) difficulties with the execution of Assured Guaranty’s business strategy; (16) loss of key personnel; (17) the effects of mergers, acquisitions and divestitures; (18) natural or man-made catastrophes; (19) other risks and uncertainties that have not been identified at this time; (20) management’s response to these factors; and (21) other risk factors identified in AGL’s filings with the SEC. Readers are cautioned not to place undue reliance on these forward looking statements, which speak only as of the dates on which they are made. Assured Guaranty undertakes no obligation to update publicly or review any forward looking statement, whether as a result of new information, future developments or otherwise, except as required by law.




Assured Guaranty Ltd.
Selected Financial Highlights
(dollars in millions, except per share amounts)
 
 
Three Months Ended
 
Six Months Ended
 
 
June 30,
 
June 30,
 
 
2016
 
2015
 
2016
 
2015
Net income (loss)
 
$
146

 
$
297

 
$
205

 
$
498

Operating income (3)
 
139

 
278

 
252

 
418

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income (loss) per diluted share
 
$
1.09

 
$
1.96

 
$
1.51

 
$
3.23

Operating income per diluted share (3)
 
1.03

 
1.83

 
1.86

 
2.71

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Weighted average shares outstanding
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Basic shares outstanding
 
134.0

 
150.6

 
135.1

 
153.2

Diluted shares outstanding (1)
 
134.8

 
151.6

 
135.9

 
154.1

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Effect of refundings and terminations, net on:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net earned premiums
 
$
117

 
$
96

 
$
206

 
$
137

Net change in fair value of credit derivatives
 
67

 
2

 
78

 
13

Net income effect
 
151

 
67

 
238

 
102

Net income per diluted share
 
1.12

 
0.44

 
1.75

 
0.66

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Operating net earned premiums
 
116

 
96

 
205

 
137

Credit derivative revenues
 
20

 
2

 
20

 
13

Operating income effect
 
118

 
68

 
198

 
103

Operating income per diluted share
 
0.87

 
0.44

 
1.45

 
0.67

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Effective tax rate on net income
 
26.9
%
 
27.5
%
 
22.8
%
 
26.2
%
Effective tax rate on operating income (5)
 
27.4
%
 
25.4
%
 
24.4
%
 
24.3
%
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Return on equity (ROE) calculations (2)(6):
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
GAAP ROE
 
9.5
%
 
20.5
%
 
6.7
%
 
17.2
%
ROE, excluding unrealized gain (loss) on investment portfolio
 
10.1
%
 
21.7
%
 
7.1
%
 
18.2
%
Operating ROE
 
9.3
%
 
18.7
%
 
8.4
%
 
14.0
%
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
New business:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Gross written premiums (GWP)
 
$
36

 
$
22

 
$
55

 
$
54

Present value of new business production (PVP) (3)   
 
41

 
26

 
79

 
62

Gross par written
 
4,775

 
5,581

 
7,524

 
8,289

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
As of
 
 
 
 
 
 
June 30,
 
December 31,
 
 
 
 
 
 
2016
 
2015
Shareholders' equity
 
 
 
 
 
$
6,250

 
$
6,063

Operating shareholders' equity
 
 
 
 
 
6,011

 
5,946

Adjusted book value
 
 
 
 
 
8,215

 
8,439

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Shares outstanding at the end of period
 
 
 
 
 
132.8

 
137.9

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Shareholders' equity per share
 
 
 
 
 
$
47.06

 
$
43.96

Operating shareholders' equity per share
 
 
 
 
 
45.26

 
43.11

Adjusted book value per share
 
 
 
 
 
61.86

 
61.18

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net debt service outstanding
 
 
 
 
 
$
488,362

 
$
536,341

Net par outstanding
 
 
 
 
 
329,864

 
358,571

Claims-paying resources (4)
 
 
 
 
 
11,938

 
12,306


1)
Non-GAAP diluted shares outstanding were the same as GAAP diluted shares since both net income and operating income were positive for all periods.
2)
Quarterly ROE calculations represent annualized returns.
3)
Please refer to the explanation of Non-GAAP Financial Measures set forth at the end of this Financial Supplement.
4)
See page 8 for additional detail on claims-paying resources.
5)
Represents the ratio of non-GAAP operating provision for income taxes to operating income before income taxes. See pages 4 and 5.
6)
See page 6 for additional information on calculation.

1



Assured Guaranty Ltd.
Consolidated Balance Sheets (unaudited)
(dollars in millions)

 
 
As of:
 
 
June 30,
 
December 31,
 
 
2016
 
2015
Assets:
 
 
 
 
Investment portfolio:
 
 
 
 
Fixed maturity securities, available-for-sale, at fair value
 
$
9,960

 
$
10,627

Short-term investments, at fair value
 
585

 
396

Other invested assets
 
170

 
169

Total investment portfolio
 
10,715

 
11,192

 
 
 
 
 
Cash
 
190

 
166

Premiums receivable, net of commissions payable
 
623

 
693

Ceded unearned premium reserve
 
228

 
232

Deferred acquisition costs
 
110

 
114

Reinsurance recoverable on unpaid losses
 
82

 
69

Salvage and subrogation recoverable
 
323

 
126

Credit derivative assets
 
36

 
81

Deferred tax asset, net
 
235

 
276

Current income tax receivable
 

 
40

Financial guaranty variable interest entities (FG VIE) assets, at fair value
 
814

 
1,261

Funds restricted for CIFG acquisition
 
451

 

Other assets
 
285

 
294

Total assets
 
$
14,092

 
$
14,544

 
 
 
 
 
Liabilities and shareholders' equity:
 
 
 
 
Liabilities:
 
 
 
 
Unearned premium reserve
 
$
3,617

 
$
3,996

Loss and loss adjustment expense reserve
 
1,268

 
1,067

Reinsurance balances payable, net
 
56

 
51

Long-term debt
 
1,303

 
1,300

Credit derivative liabilities
 
432

 
446

Current income tax payable
 
19

 

FG VIE liabilities with recourse, at fair value
 
790

 
1,225

FG VIE liabilities without recourse, at fair value
 
115

 
124

Other liabilities
 
242

 
272

Total liabilities
 
7,842

 
8,481

 
 
 
 
 
Shareholders' equity:
 
 
 
 
Common stock
 
1

 
1

Additional paid-in capital
 
1,213

 
1,342

Retained earnings
 
4,648

 
4,478

Accumulated other comprehensive income
 
383

 
237

Deferred equity compensation
 
5

 
5

Total shareholders' equity
 
6,250

 
6,063

Total liabilities and shareholders' equity
 
$
14,092

 
$
14,544





2



Assured Guaranty Ltd.
Consolidated Statements of Operations (unaudited)
(dollars in millions, except per share amounts)

 
 
 
Three Months Ended
 
Six Months Ended
 
 
 
June 30,
 
June 30,
 
 
 
2016
 
2015
 
2016
 
2015
Revenues:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net earned premiums
 
$
214

 
$
219

 
$
397

 
$
361

 
Net investment income
 
98

 
98

 
197

 
199

 
Net realized investment gains (losses)
 
10

 
(9
)
 
(3
)
 
7

 
Net change in fair value of credit derivatives:
 
 
 

 
 
 

 
 
 Realized gains (losses) and other settlements
 
24

 
8

 
32

 
29

 
 
 Net unrealized gains (losses)
 
39

 
82

 
(29
)
 
185

 
 
 
Net change in fair value of credit derivatives
 
63

 
90

 
3

 
214

 
Fair value gains (losses) on committed capital securities (CCS)
 
(11
)
 
23

 
(27
)
 
25

 
Fair value gains (losses) on FG VIEs
 
4

 
5

 
22

 
(2
)
 
Bargain purchase gain and settlement of pre-existing relationships
 

 
214

 

 
214

 
Other income (loss)
 
18

 
55

 
52

 
46

 
 
Total revenues
 
396

 
695

 
641

 
1,064

Expenses:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Loss and loss adjustment expenses (LAE)
 
102

 
188

 
192

 
206

 
Amortization of deferred acquisition costs
 
5

 
6

 
9

 
10

 
Interest expense
 
25

 
26

 
51

 
51

 
Other operating expenses
 
63

 
66

 
123

 
122

 
 
Total expenses
 
195

 
286

 
375

 
389

Income (loss) before income taxes
 
201

 
409

 
266

 
675

 
Provision (benefit) for income taxes
 
55

 
112

 
61

 
177

Net income (loss)
 
$
146

 
$
297

 
$
205

 
$
498

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Earnings per share:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Basic
 
$
1.09

 
$
1.97

 
$
1.52

 
$
3.25

 
Diluted
 
$
1.09

 
$
1.96

 
$
1.51

 
$
3.23

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 


3



Assured Guaranty Ltd.
Net Income (Loss) Reconciliation to Operating Income (1 of 2)
(dollars in millions)

 
 
Three Months Ended
 
Three Months Ended
 
 
June 30, 2016
 
June 30, 2015
 
 
GAAP Income Statement Line Items As Reported
 
Less: Operating Income Adjustments
 
Non-GAAP Operating Income Components
 
GAAP Income Statement Line Items As Reported
 
Less: Operating Income Adjustments
 
Non-GAAP Operating Income Components
Revenues:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net earned premiums
 
$
214

 
$
(3
)
(1)
$
217

 
$
219

 
$
(5
)
(1)
$
224

Net investment income
 
98

 
5

(1)
93

 
98

 
(1
)
(1)
99

Net realized investment gains (losses)
 
10

 
10

(2)

 
(9
)
 
(9
)
(2)
0

Net change in fair value of credit derivatives:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Realized gains (losses) and other settlements
 
24

 
24

 

 
8

 
8

 

Net unrealized gains (losses)
 
39

 
44

 
(5
)
 
82

 
82

 

Credit derivative revenues
 

 
(31
)
 
31

 

 
(35
)
 
35

Net change in fair value of credit derivatives
 
63

 
37

(2)
26

 
90

 
55

(2)
35

Fair value gains (losses) on CCS
 
(11
)
 
(11
)
(3)

 
23

 
23

(3)

Fair value gains (losses) on FG VIEs
 
4

 
4

(1)

 
5

 
5

(1)

Bargain purchase gain and settlement of pre-existing relationships
 

 

 

 
214

 
(35
)
(1)(2)
249

Other income (loss)
 
18

 
(18
)
(1)(4)
36

 
55

 
13

(1)(4)
42

Total revenues
 
396

 
24

 
372

 
695

 
46

 
649

Expenses:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Loss and LAE:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Financial guaranty insurance
 
102

 
3

(1)
99

 
188

 
(1
)
(1)
189

Credit derivatives
 

 
11

(2)
(11
)
 

 
9

(2)
(9
)
Amortization of deferred acquisition costs
 
5

 
0

 
5

 
6

 
0

 
6

Interest expense
 
25

 

 
25

 
26

 

 
26

Other operating expenses
 
63

 
0

 
63

 
66

 
1

 
65

Total expenses
 
195

 
14

 
181

 
286

 
9

 
277

Income (loss) before income taxes
 
201

 
10

 
191

 
409

 
37

 
372

Provision (benefit) for income taxes
 
55

 
3

(5)
52

 
112

 
18

(5)
94

Net income (loss)
 
$
146

 
$
7

 
$
139

 
$
297

 
$
19

 
$
278

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Effective tax rate
 
26.9
%




27.4
%

27.5
%




25.4
%

1)
Include adjustments related to elimination of the effects of consolidating FG VIEs.

2)
Adjustments to eliminate non-economic fair value gains (losses) on credit derivatives and reclassification to revenues and loss expense.

3)
Adjustments to eliminate fair value gain (loss) on CCS.

4)
Include adjustments related to elimination of foreign exchange gains (losses) on remeasurement of premiums receivable and loss and LAE reserves.

5)
Tax effect of the above adjustments.

Please refer to the explanation of Non-GAAP Financial Measures set forth at the end of this Financial Supplement.




4



Assured Guaranty Ltd.
Net Income (Loss) Reconciliation to Operating Income (2 of 2)
(dollars in millions)

 
 
Six Months Ended
 
Six Months Ended
 
 
June 30, 2016
 
June 30, 2015
 
 
GAAP Income Statement Line Items As Reported
 
Less: Operating Income Adjustments
 
Non-GAAP Operating Income Components
 
GAAP Income Statement Line Items As Reported
 
Less: Operating Income Adjustments
 
Non-GAAP Operating Income Components
Revenues:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net earned premiums
 
$
397

 
$
(8
)
(1)
$
405

 
$
361

 
$
(10
)
(1)
$
371

Net investment income
 
197

 
1

(1)
196

 
199

 
(2
)
(1)
201

Net realized investment gains (losses)
 
(3
)
 
(3
)
(2)

 
7

 
7

(2)
0

Net change in fair value of credit derivatives:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Realized gains (losses) and other settlements
 
32

 
32

 

 
29

 
29

 

Net unrealized gains (losses)
 
(29
)
 
(9
)
 
(20
)
 
185

 
185

 

Credit derivative revenues
 

 
(41
)
 
41

 

 
(59
)
 
59

Net change in fair value of credit derivatives
 
3

 
(18
)
(2)
21

 
214

 
155

(2)
59

Fair value gains (losses) on CCS
 
(27
)
 
(27
)
(3)

 
25

 
25

(3)

Fair value gains (losses) on FG VIEs
 
22

 
22

(1)

 
(2
)
 
(2
)
(1)

Bargain purchase gain and settlement of pre-existing relationships
 

 

 

 
214

 
(35
)
(1)(2)
249

Other income (loss)
 
52

 
(20
)
(1)(4)
72

 
46

 

(1)(4)
46

Total revenues
 
641

 
(53
)
 
694

 
1,064

 
138

 
926

Expenses:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Loss and LAE:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Financial guaranty insurance
 
192

 
(4
)
(1)
196

 
206

 
(7
)
(1)
213

Credit derivatives
 

 
17

(2)
(17
)
 

 
21

(2)
(21
)
Amortization of deferred acquisition costs
 
9

 
0

 
9

 
10

 
0

 
10

Interest expense
 
51

 

 
51

 
51

 

 
51

Other operating expenses
 
123

 
1

 
122

 
122

 
1

 
121

Total expenses
 
375

 
14

 
361

 
389

 
15

 
374

Income (loss) before income taxes
 
266

 
(67
)
 
333

 
675

 
123

 
552

Provision (benefit) for income taxes
 
61

 
(20
)
(5)
81

 
177

 
43

(5)
134

Net income (loss)
 
$
205

 
$
(47
)
 
$
252

 
$
498

 
$
80

 
$
418

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Effective tax rate
 
22.8
%
 
 
 
24.4
%
 
26.2
%
 
 
 
24.3
%

1)
Include adjustments related to elimination of the effects of consolidating FG VIEs.

2)
Adjustments to eliminate non-economic fair value gains (losses) on credit derivatives and reclassification to revenues and loss expense.

3)
Adjustments to eliminate fair value gain (loss) on CCS.

4)
Include adjustments related to elimination of foreign exchange gains (losses) on remeasurement of premiums receivable and loss and LAE reserves.

5)
Tax effect of the above adjustments.

Please refer to the explanation of Non-GAAP Financial Measures set forth at the end of this Financial Supplement.




5



Assured Guaranty Ltd.
Selected Financial Highlights Non-GAAP Reconciliations
(dollars in millions, except per share amounts)
Operating Income Reconciliation
 
Three Months Ended
 
Six Months Ended
 
 
June 30,
 
June 30,
 
 
2016
 
2015
 
2016
 
2015
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income (loss)
 
$
146

 
$
297

 
$
205

 
$
498

Less pre-tax adjustments:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Realized gains (losses) on investments
 
9

 
(12
)
 
(5
)
 
4

Non-credit impairment unrealized fair value gains (losses) on credit derivatives
 
32

 
10

 
(28
)
 
101

Fair value gains (losses) on CCS
 
(11
)
 
22

 
(27
)
 
24

Foreign exchange gains (losses) on remeasurement of premiums receivable and loss and LAE reserves
 
(17
)
 
13

 
(19
)
 
0

Effect of consolidating FG VIEs
 
(3
)
 
4

 
12

 
(6
)
Total pre-tax adjustments
 
10

 
37

 
(67
)
 
123

Less tax effect on pre-tax adjustments
 
(3
)
 
(18
)
 
20

 
(43
)
Operating income
 
$
139


$
278


$
252


$
418

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Per diluted share:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income (loss)
 
$
1.09

 
$
1.96

 
$
1.51

 
$
3.23

Less pre-tax adjustments:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Realized gains (losses) on investments
 
0.06

 
(0.08
)
 
(0.04
)
 
0.02

Non-credit impairment unrealized fair value gains (losses) on credit derivatives
 
0.23

 
0.07

 
(0.21
)
 
0.66

Fair value gains (losses) on CCS
 
(0.08
)
 
0.15

 
(0.20
)
 
0.16

Foreign exchange gains (losses) on remeasurement of premiums receivable and loss and LAE reserves
 
(0.12
)
 
0.08

 
(0.14
)
 
0.00

Effect of consolidating FG VIEs
 
(0.03
)
 
0.02

 
0.09

 
(0.04
)
Total pre-tax adjustments
 
0.06

 
0.24

 
(0.50
)
 
0.80

Less tax effect on pre-tax adjustments
 
0.00

 
(0.11
)
 
0.15

 
(0.28
)
Operating income
 
$
1.03

 
$
1.83

 
$
1.86

 
$
2.71

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
ROE Reconciliation and Calculation
 
As of
 
 
June 30,
 
March 31,
 
December 31,
 
June 30,
 
March 31,
 
December 31,
 
 
2016
 
2016
 
2015
 
2015
 
2015
 
2014
Shareholders' equity
 
$
6,250

 
$
6,113

 
$
6,063

 
$
5,806

 
$
5,786

 
$
5,758

Unrealized gain (loss) on investment portfolio, pre-tax
 
598

 
485

 
376

 
347

 
558

 
534

Less: tax effect
 
171

 
141

 
116

 
104

 
163

 
161

Unrealized gain (loss) on investment portfolio, after-tax
 
427

 
344

 
260

 
243

 
395

 
373

Shareholders' equity, excluding unrealized gain (loss) on investment portfolio
 
5,823

 
5,769

 
5,803

 
5,563

 
5,391

 
5,385

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Operating shareholders' equity
 
6,011

 
5,954

 
5,946

 
6,011

 
5,876

 
5,933

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Three Months Ended
 
Six Months Ended
 
 
 
 
 
 
June 30,
 
June 30,
 
 
 
 
 
 
2016
 
2015
 
2016
 
2015
Net income (loss)
 
 
 
 
 
$
146

 
$
297

 
$
205

 
$
498

Operating income
 
 
 
 
 
139

 
278

 
252

 
418

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Average shareholders' equity
 
 
 
 
 
$
6,182

 
$
5,796

 
$
6,157

 
$
5,782

Average shareholders' equity, excluding unrealized gain (loss) on investment portfolio
 
 
 
 
 
5,796

 
5,477

 
5,813

 
5,474

Average operating shareholders' equity
 
 
 
 
 
5,983

 
5,944

 
5,979

 
5,972

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
GAAP ROE (1)
 
 
 
 
 
9.5
%
 
20.5
%
 
6.7
%
 
17.2
%
ROE, excluding unrealized gain (loss) on investment portfolio(1)
 
 
 
 
 
10.1
%
 
21.7
%
 
7.1
%
 
18.2
%
Operating ROE(1)
 
 
 
 
 
9.3
%
 
18.7
%
 
8.4
%
 
14.0
%
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 

1)
Quarterly ROE calculations represent annualized returns.

6



Assured Guaranty Ltd.
Operating Shareholders' Equity and Adjusted Book Value
(dollars in millions, except per share amounts)


 
As of:
 
June 30,
 
December 31, 2015
 
Total
 
Per Share
 
Total
 
Per Share
Reconciliation of shareholders' equity to adjusted book value:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Shareholders' equity
$
6,250

 
$
47.06

 
$
6,063

 
$
43.96

Less pre-tax adjustments:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Effect of consolidating FG VIEs
(18
)
 
(0.13
)
 
(35
)
 
(0.25
)
Non-credit impairment unrealized fair value gains (losses) on credit derivatives
(265
)
 
(2.00
)
 
(241
)
 
(1.75
)
Fair value gains (losses) on CCS
35

 
0.26

 
62

 
0.45

Unrealized gain (loss) on investment portfolio excluding foreign exchange effect
598

 
4.50

 
376

 
2.73

Taxes
(111
)
 
(0.83
)
 
(45
)
 
(0.33
)
Operating shareholders' equity
6,011

 
45.26

 
5,946

 
43.11

Pre-tax adjustments:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Less: Deferred acquisition costs
110

 
0.83

 
114

 
0.83

Plus: Net present value of estimated net future credit derivative revenue
93

 
0.70

 
169

 
1.23

Plus: Net unearned premium reserve on financial guaranty contracts in excess of expected loss to be expensed
3,073

 
23.14

 
3,417

 
24.77

Taxes
(852
)
 
(6.41
)
 
(979
)
 
(7.10
)
Adjusted book value
$
8,215

 
$
61.86

 
$
8,439

 
$
61.18



Please refer to the explanation of Non-GAAP Financial Measures set forth at the end of this Financial Supplement.



7



Assured Guaranty Ltd.
Claims-Paying Resources
(dollars in millions)
 
 
As of June 30, 2016
 
 
Assured Guaranty Municipal Corp.
 
Assured Guaranty Corp.
 
Municipal Assurance Corp.
 
Assured Guaranty Re Ltd. (8)
 
Eliminations(3)
 
Consolidated
Claims-paying resources
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Policyholders' surplus
 
$
2,441

 
$
1,435

 
$
379

 
$
1,075

 
$
(623
)
 
$
4,707

Contingency reserve(1)
 
1,400

 
913

 
298

 

 
(298
)
 
2,313

Qualified statutory capital
 
3,841

 
2,348

 
677

 
1,075

 
(921
)
 
7,020

Unearned premium reserve(1)
 
1,459

 
573

 
400

 
746

 
(400
)
 
2,778

Loss and LAE reserves (1)
 
333

 
177

 

 
342

 

 
852

Total policyholders' surplus and reserves
 
5,633

 
3,098

 
1,077

 
2,163

 
(1,321
)
 
10,650

Present value of installment premium(1)
 
239

 
156

 
2

 
133

 
(2
)
 
528

CCS
 
200

 
200

 

 

 

 
400

Excess of loss reinsurance facility (2)
 
360

 
360

 
360

 

 
(720
)
 
360

Total claims-paying resources (including proportionate MAC ownership for AGM and AGC)
 
6,432

 
3,814

 
1,439

 
2,296

 
(2,043
)
 
11,938

Adjustment for MAC (4)
 
655

 
424

 

 

 
(1,079
)
 

Total claims-paying resources (excluding proportionate MAC ownership for AGM and AGC)
 
$
5,777

 
$
3,390

 
$
1,439

 
$
2,296

 
$
(964
)
 
$
11,938

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Statutory net par outstanding (5)                     
 
$
123,873

 
$
38,178

 
$
52,001

 
$
81,407

 
$
(953
)
 
$
294,506

Equity method adjustment (4)
 
31,564

 
20,437

 

 

 
(52,001
)
 

Adjusted statutory net par outstanding (1)
 
$
155,437

 
$
58,615

 
$
52,001

 
$
81,407

 
$
(52,954
)
 
$
294,506

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net debt service outstanding (5) 
 
$
191,278

 
$
56,528

 
$
76,721

 
$
127,909

 
$
(2,391
)
 
$
450,045

Equity method adjustment (4)
 
46,570

 
30,151

 

 

 
(76,721
)
 

Adjusted net debt service outstanding (1)
 
$
237,848

 
$
86,679

 
$
76,721

 
$
127,909

 
$
(79,112
)
 
$
450,045

Ratios:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Adjusted net par outstanding to qualified statutory capital
 
40:1
 
25:1
 
77:1
 
76:1
 

 
42:1
Capital ratio (6)
 
62:1
 
37:1
 
113:1
 
119:1
 

 
64:1
Financial resources ratio (7)
 
37:1
 
23:1
 
53:1
 
56:1
 

 
38:1
1)
The numbers shown for Assured Guaranty Municipal Corp. (AGM) and Assured Guaranty Corp. (AGC) have been adjusted to include (i) their 100% share of their respective United Kingdom insurance subsidiaries and (ii) their indirect share of Municipal Assurance Corp. (MAC). AGM and AGC own 60.7% and 39.3%, respectively, of the outstanding stock of Municipal Assurance Holdings Inc., which owns 100% of the outstanding common stock of MAC. Amounts include financial guaranty insurance and credit derivatives.
2)
Represents an aggregate $360 million excess-of-loss reinsurance facility for the benefit of AGC, AGM and MAC, which became effective January 1, 2016. The facility terminates on January 1, 2018, unless AGC, AGM and MAC choose to extend it.
3)
Eliminations are primarily for (i) intercompany surplus notes between AGM and AGC, and (ii) MAC amounts, whose proportionate share are included in AGM and AGC based on ownership percentages. Net par and net debt service outstanding eliminations relate to second-to-pay policies under which an Assured Guaranty insurance subsidiary guarantees an obligation already insured by another Assured Guaranty insurance subsidiary, and net par related to intercompany cessions from AGM and AGC to MAC.
4)
Represents adjustments for AGM's and AGC's interest and indirect ownership of MAC.
5)
Net par outstanding and net debt service outstanding are presented on a statutory basis.
6)
The capital ratio is calculated by dividing adjusted net debt service outstanding by qualified statutory capital.
7)
The financial resources ratio is calculated by dividing adjusted net debt service outstanding by total claims-paying resources (including MAC adjustment for AGM and AGC).
8)
Assured Guaranty Re Ltd. (AG Re) numbers represent the Company's estimate of U.S. statutory accounting practices prescribed or permitted by insurance regulatory authorities, except for contingency reserves.

Please refer to the Glossary for an explanation of changes in the presentation of net debt service and net par outstanding.

8



Assured Guaranty Ltd.
New Business Production
(dollars in millions)

Reconciliation of PVP to GWP for the Three Months Ended June 30, 2016 and June 30, 2015

 
 
Three Months Ended
 
Three Months Ended
 
 
June 30, 2016
 
June 30, 2015
 
 
Public Finance
 
Structured Finance
 
 
 
Public Finance
 
Structured Finance
 
 
 
 
U.S.
 
Non - U.S.
 
U.S.
 
Non - U.S.
 
Total
 
U.S.
 
Non - U.S.
 
U.S.
 
Non - U.S.
 
Total
PVP
 
$
33

 
$
7

 
$
1

 
$

 
$
41

 
$
25

 
$

 
$
1

 
$

 
$
26

Less: PVP of non-financial guaranty insurance
 

 

 
1

 

 
1

 

 

 
0

 

 
0

Less: Financial guaranty installment premium PVP
 

 
7

 

 

 
7

 

 

 
1

 

 
1

Plus: Installment GWP and other GAAP adjustments(1)
 
0

 
7

 
(3
)
 
(1
)
 
3

 
(2
)
 
(1
)
 
0

 
0

 
(3
)
Total GWP
 
$
33

 
$
7

 
$
(3
)
 
$
(1
)
 
$
36

 
$
23

 
$
(1
)
 
$
0

 
$
0

 
$
22

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Gross par written
 
$
4,366

 
$
406

 
$
3

 
$

 
$
4,775

 
$
5,581

 
$

 
$

 
$

 
$
5,581



Reconciliation of PVP to GWP for the Six Months Ended June 30, 2016 and June 30, 2015

 
 
Six Months Ended
 
Six Months Ended
 
 
June 30, 2016
 
June 30, 2015
 
 
Public Finance
 
Structured Finance
 
 
 
Public Finance
 
Structured Finance
 
 
 
 
U.S.
 
Non - U.S.
 
U.S.
 
Non - U.S.
 
Total
 
U.S.
 
Non - U.S.
 
U.S.
 
Non - U.S.
 
Total
PVP
 
$
64

 
$
14

 
$
1

 
$

 
$
79

 
$
38

 
$

 
$
19

 
$
5

 
$
62

Less: PVP of non-financial guaranty insurance
 

 

 
1

 

 
1

 

 

 
1

 
5

 
6

Less: Financial guaranty installment premium PVP
 

 
14

 

 

 
14

 

 

 
18

 

 
18

Plus: Installment GWP and other GAAP adjustments(1)
 
(16
)
 
15

 
(6
)
 
(2
)
 
(9
)
 
(2
)
 
(1
)
 
19

 
0

 
16

Total GWP
 
$
48

 
$
15

 
$
(6
)
 
$
(2
)
 
$
55

 
$
36

 
$
(1
)
 
$
19

 
$
0

 
$
54

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Gross par written
 
$
7,115

 
$
406

 
$
3

 
$

 
$
7,524

 
$
8,022

 
$

 
$
261

 
$
6

 
$
8,289


1)
Includes present value of new business on installment policies discounted at the prescribed GAAP discount rates, gross written premium adjustments on existing installment policies due to changes in assumptions, any cancellations of assumed reinsurance contracts, and other GAAP adjustments.

Please refer to the explanation of Non-GAAP Financial Measures set forth at the end of this Financial Supplement.

9



Assured Guaranty Ltd.
Gross Par Written
(dollars in millions)


Gross Par Written by Asset Type

 
 
Three Months Ended
 
Six Months Ended
 
 
June 30, 2016
 
June 30, 2016
 
 
Gross Par Written
 
Avg. Internal Rating
 
Gross Par Written
 
Avg. Internal Rating
Sector:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
U.S. public finance
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
General obligation
 
$
2,194

 
 A-
 
$
3,492

 
 A-
Tax backed
 
613

 
 A
 
1,316

 
 A-
Transportation
 
757

 
 BBB
 
919

 
 BBB
Municipal utilities
 
536

 
 A-
 
831

 
 A-
Higher education
 
244

 
 A
 
316

 
 A
Housing
 
21

 
 BBB
 
155

 
 BBB
Infrastructure finance
 

 
 
9

 
 A
Other public finance
 
1

 
 A-
 
77

 
 AA-
Total U.S. public finance
 
4,366

 
 A-
 
7,115

 
 A-
Non-U.S. public finance:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Regulated utilities
 
406

 
BBB+
 
406

 
BBB+
Total non-U.S. public finance
 
406

 
BBB+
 
406

 
BBB+
Total public finance
 
$
4,772

 
 A-
 
$
7,521

 
 A-
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
U.S. structured finance:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Other structured finance
 
$
3

 
 A-
 
$
3

 
 A-
Total U.S. structured finance
 
3

 
 A-
 
3

 
 A-
Non-U.S. structured finance:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Total non-U.S. structured finance
 

 
 

 
Total structured finance
 
$
3

 
 A-
 
$
3

 
 A-
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Total gross par written
 
$
4,775

 
 A-
 
$
7,524

 
 A-


Please refer to the Glossary for a description of internal ratings and sectors.




10



Assured Guaranty Ltd.
New Business Production by Quarter
(dollars in millions)


 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Six Months
 
 
1Q-15
 
2Q-15
 
3Q-15
 
4Q-15
 
1Q-16
 
2Q-16
 
2015
 
2016
PVP:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Public finance - U.S.
 
$
13

 
$
25

 
$
41

 
$
45

 
$
31

 
$
33

 
$
38

 
$
64

Public finance - non-U.S.
 

 

 

 
27

 
7

 
7

 

 
14

Structured finance - U.S.
 
18

 
1

 
0

 
3

 

 
1

 
19

 
1

Structured finance - non-U.S.
 
5

 

 

 
1

 

 

 
5

 

Total PVP
 
$
36

 
$
26

 
$
41

 
$
76

 
$
38

 
$
41

 
$
62

 
$
79

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Reconciliation of PVP to GWP:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Total PVP
 
$
36

 
$
26

 
$
41

 
$
76

 
$
38

 
$
41

 
$
62

 
$
79

Less: PVP of non-financial guaranty insurance
 
6

 
0

 
1

 
0

 
0

 
1

 
6

 
1

Less: Financial guaranty installment premium PVP
 
17

 
1

 
(1
)
 
29

 
7

 
7

 
18

 
14

Plus: Installment GWP and other GAAP adjustments
 
19

 
(3
)
 
(1
)
 
40

 
(12
)
 
3

 
16

 
(9
)
Total GWP
 
$
32

 
$
22

 
$
40

 
$
87

 
$
19

 
$
36

 
$
54

 
$
55

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Gross par written:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Public finance - U.S.
 
$
2,441

 
$
5,581

 
$
4,703

 
$
3,652

 
$
2,749

 
$
4,366

 
$
8,022

 
$
7,115

Public finance - non-U.S.
 

 

 

 
567

 

 
406

 

 
406

Structured finance - U.S.
 
261

 

 

 
66

 

 
3

 
261

 
3

Structured finance - non-U.S.
 
6

 

 

 
59

 

 

 
6

 

Total
 
$
2,708

 
$
5,581

 
$
4,703

 
$
4,344

 
$
2,749

 
$
4,775

 
$
8,289

 
$
7,524



Please refer to the explanation of Non-GAAP Financial Measures set forth at the end of this Financial Supplement.


11



Assured Guaranty Ltd.
Available-for-Sale Investment Portfolio and Cash
As of June 30, 2016
(dollars in millions)
                                           
 
 
 
Amortized Cost
 
Pre-Tax Book Yield
 
After-Tax Book Yield
 
Fair Value
 
Annualized Investment Income (1)
Investment portfolio, available-for-sale:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Fixed maturity securities:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Obligations of states and political subdivisions(4)
 
$
4,735

 
3.98
%
 
3.67
%
 
$
5,151

 
$
189

 
Insured obligations of state and political subdivisions (2)(4)
 
408

 
4.89

 
4.54

 
452

 
20

 
U.S. Treasury securities and obligations of U.S. government agencies
 
165

 
2.24

 
1.64

 
177

 
4

 
Agency obligations
 
134

 
4.88

 
4.13

 
149

 
7

 
Corporate securities (4)
 
1,402

 
3.93

 
3.10

 
1,443

 
55

 
Mortgage-backed securities (MBS):
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Residential MBS (RMBS) (3)(4)
 
1,037

 
4.64

 
3.54

 
1,062

 
48

 
 
Commercial MBS (CMBS)
 
505

 
3.50

 
2.83

 
539

 
18

 
Asset-backed securities (4)
 
745

 
2.99

 
2.04

 
730

 
22

 
Foreign government securities
 
270

 
2.37

 
1.54

 
257

 
6

 
 
Total fixed maturity securities
 
9,401

 
3.92

 
3.34

 
9,960

 
369

Short-term investments
 
585

 
0.03

 
0.03

 
585

 
0

Cash (5)
 
190

 

 

 
190

 

 
 
Total
 
$
10,176

 
3.69
%
 
3.15
%
 
$
10,735

 
$
369

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Ratings (6):
 
Fair Value
 
% of Portfolio
 
 
 

 
 
 
U.S. Treasury securities and obligations of U.S. government agencies
 
$
177

 
1.8
%
 
 
 

 
 
 
Agency obligations
 
149

 
1.5

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
AAA/Aaa
 
1,120

 
11.3

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
AA/Aa
 
5,458

 
54.8

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
A/A
 
1,774

 
17.8

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
BBB
 
100

 
1.0

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Below investment grade (BIG) (7)
 
1,140

 
11.4

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Not rated
 
42

 
0.4

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Total fixed maturity securities, available-for-sale
 
$
9,960

 
100.0
%
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Duration of fixed maturity securities and short-term investments (in years):
 
 
 
5.2
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Average ratings of fixed maturity securities and short-term investments
 
 
 
A+
 
 
 
 
 
 


1)
Represents annualized investment income based on amortized cost and pre-tax book yields.
2)
Reflects obligations of state and local political subdivisions that have been insured by other financial guarantors. The underlying ratings of these bonds, after giving effect to the lower of the rating assigned by Standard & Poor's Ratings Services (S&P) or Moody's Investors Service, Inc. (Moody's), average A+. Includes fair value of $149 million insured by AGC and AGM.
3)
Includes fair value of $237 million in subprime RMBS, which has an average rating of BIG.
4)
Includes securities purchased or obtained as part of loss mitigation or other risk management strategies.
5)
Cash is not included in the yield calculation.
6)
Ratings are represented by the lower of the Moody's and S&P classifications except for bonds purchased for loss mitigation (loss mitigation bonds) or other risk management strategies which use internal ratings classifications.
7)
Includes below investment grade securities that were purchased or obtained as part of loss mitigation or other risk management strategies of $1,959 million in par with carrying value of $1,139 million.



12



Assured Guaranty Ltd.
Estimated Net Exposure Amortization(1) and Estimated Future Net Premium
and Credit Derivative Revenues
(dollars in millions)

 
 
 
 
 
 
Financial Guaranty Insurance (2)
 
 
 
 
 
 
Estimated Net Debt Service Amortization
 
Estimated Ending Net Debt Service Outstanding
 
Expected PV Net Earned Premiums
 
Accretion of Discount
 
Future Operating Net Premiums Earned
 
Future Credit Derivative Revenues
 
Total
2016 (as of June 30)
 
 
 
$
488,362

 
 
 
 
 

 
 
 

2016 Q3
 
$
14,540

 
473,822

 
$
93

 
$
4

 
$
97

 
$
8

 
$
105

2016 Q4
 
12,596

 
461,226

 
89

 
4

 
93

 
7

 
100

2017
 
50,131

 
411,095

 
326

 
16

 
342

 
19

 
361

2018
 
35,241

 
375,854

 
298

 
15

 
313

 
9

 
322

2019
 
28,825

 
347,029

 
266

 
14

 
280

 
7

 
287

2020
 
23,961

 
323,068

 
243

 
13

 
256

 
6

 
262

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
2016-2020
 
165,294

 
323,068

 
1,315

 
66

 
1,381

 
56

 
1,437

2021-2025
 
110,728

 
212,340

 
943

 
48

 
991

 
29

 
1,020

2026-2030
 
85,848

 
126,492

 
601

 
29

 
630

 
18

 
648

2031-2035
 
60,921

 
65,571

 
362

 
15

 
377

 
15

 
392

After 2035
 
65,571

 

 
288

 
11

 
299

 
13

 
312

 
Total
 
$
488,362

 
 
 
$
3,509

 
$
169

 
$
3,678

 
$
131

 
$
3,809



Reconciliation of future operating net premiums earned to future GAAP net premiums earned

 
 
Future GAAP Net Premiums Earned
 
Future Operating Net Premiums Earned related to FG VIEs
 
Future Operating Net Premiums Earned
2016 Q3
 
$
93

 
$
4

 
$
97

2016 Q4
 
89

 
4

 
93

2017
 
328

 
14

 
342

2018
 
302

 
11

 
313

2019
 
271

 
9

 
280

2020
 
249

 
7

 
256

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
2016-2020
 
1,332

 
49

 
1,381

2021-2025
 
969

 
22

 
991

2026-2030
 
617

 
13

 
630

2031-2035
 
365

 
12

 
377

After 2035
 
294

 
5

 
299

 
Total
 
$
3,577

 
$
101

 
$
3,678


1)
Represents the future expected amortization of current debt service outstanding (principal and interest), assuming no advance refundings, as of June 30, 2016. Actual amortization differs from expected maturities because borrowers may have the right to call or prepay guaranteed obligations and because of management's assumptions on structured finance amortization.

2)
See page 15 for ‘‘Present Value of Financial Guaranty Insurance Net Expected Loss to be Expensed.’’







13



Assured Guaranty Ltd.
Expected Amortization of Net Par Outstanding
(dollars in millions)

Structured Finance
 
 
 
Estimated Net Par Amortization
 
 
 
 
 
U.S. and Non-U.S. Pooled Corporate
 
U.S. RMBS
 
Financial Products
 
Other Structured Finance
 
Total
 
Estimated Ending Net Par Outstanding
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
2016 (as of June 30)
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 

 
$
29,622

2016 Q3
 
$
735

 
$
262

 
$
56

 
$
225

 
$
1,278

 
28,344

2016 Q4
 
1,112

 
288

 
(13
)
 
439

 
1,826

 
26,518

2017
 
9,200

 
893

 
56

 
482

 
10,631

 
15,887

2018
 
991

 
800

 
(22
)
 
604

 
2,373

 
13,514

2019
 
474

 
908

 
9

 
557

 
1,948

 
11,566

2020
 
72

 
647

 
(3
)
 
321

 
1,037

 
10,529

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 

2016-2020
 
12,584

 
3,798

 
83

 
2,628

 
19,093

 
10,529

2021-2025
 
372

 
1,528

 
175

 
2,328

 
4,403

 
6,126

2026-2030
 
260

 
410

 
899

 
807

 
2,376

 
3,750

2031-2035
 
512

 
111

 
497

 
930

 
2,050

 
1,700

After 2035
 
717

 
235

 
155

 
593

 
1,700

 

 
Total structured finance
 
$
14,445

 
$
6,082

 
$
1,809

 
$
7,286

 
$
29,622

 


Public Finance
 
 
 
Estimated Net Par Amortization
 
Estimated Ending Net Par Outstanding
 
 
 
 
 
 
2016 (as of June 30)
 
 
 
$
300,242

2016 Q3
 
$
9,721

 
290,521

2016 Q4
 
7,208

 
283,313

2017
 
26,226

 
257,087

2018
 
20,785

 
236,302

2019
 
15,691

 
220,611

2020
 
12,396

 
208,215

 
 
 
 
 
 
2016-2020
 
92,027

 
208,215

2021-2025
 
62,743

 
145,472

2026-2030
 
54,361

 
91,111

2031-2035
 
41,611

 
49,500

After 2035
 
49,500

 

 
Total public finance
 
$
300,242

 



Net par outstanding (end of period)
 
 
 
1Q-15
 
2Q-15
 
3Q-15
 
4Q-15
 
1Q-16
 
2Q-16
Public finance - U.S.
 
$
313,444

 
$
312,182

 
$
300,732

 
$
291,866

 
$
282,055

 
$
272,114

Public finance - non-U.S.
 
29,619

 
32,319

 
30,103

 
29,577

 
29,385

 
28,128

Structured finance - U.S.
 
38,430

 
38,906

 
35,435

 
31,770

 
30,452

 
25,562

Structured finance - non-U.S.
 
7,606

 
6,977

 
6,091

 
5,358

 
5,123

 
4,060

 
Net par outstanding
 
$
389,099

 
$
390,384

 
$
372,361

 
$
358,571

 
$
347,015

 
$
329,864


Please refer to the Glossary for an explanation of the presentation of net par outstanding and of the various sectors.

14



Assured Guaranty Ltd.
Present Value (PV) of Net Expected Loss to be Expensed
As of June 30, 2016
(dollars in millions)


 
 
 
Net Expected Loss to be Expensed (1)
 
 
 
GAAP(2)
 
Operating(2)
 
 
 
 
 
 
2016 Q3
 
$
9

 
$
11

2016 Q4
 
8

 
11

2017
 
30

 
39

2018
 
28

 
35

2019
 
29

 
34

2020
 
27

 
32

 
 
 
 
 
 
2016-2020
 
131

 
162

2021-2025
 
103

 
120

2026-2030
 
71

 
79

2031-2035
 
40

 
52

After 2035
 
19

 
23

 
Total expected PV of net expected loss to be expensed
 
364

 
436

Future accretion
 
199

 
216

 
Total expected future loss and LAE
 
$
563

 
$
652



1)
The present value of net expected loss to be paid is discounted using weighted-average risk free rates ranging from 0.0% to 2.46% for U.S. dollar denominated obligations.

2)
Net expected loss to be expensed for GAAP reported income is different than operating income, a non-GAAP financial measure, by the amount related to consolidated FG VIEs and credit derivatives.



15



Assured Guaranty Ltd.
Financial Guaranty Profile (1 of 4)
(dollars in millions)


Net Par Outstanding and Average Rating by Asset Type

 
 
 
June 30, 2016
 
December 31, 2015
 
 
 
Net Par Outstanding
 
Avg. Internal Rating
 
Net Par Outstanding
 
Avg. Internal Rating
U.S. public finance:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
General obligation
 
$
118,551

 
A
 
$
126,255

 
A
 
Tax backed
 
54,876

 
A
 
58,062

 
A
 
Municipal utilities
 
42,959

 
A
 
45,936

 
A
 
Transportation
 
22,383

 
A-
 
23,454

 
A
 
Healthcare
 
13,636

 
A
 
15,006

 
A
 
Higher education
 
10,787

 
A
 
11,936

 
A
 
Infrastructure finance
 
3,096

 
BBB
 
4,993

 
BBB
 
Housing
 
1,845

 
A-
 
2,037

 
A
 
Investor-owned utilities
 
902

 
A-
 
916

 
A-
 
Other public finance
 
3,079

 
A
 
3,271

 
A
 
 
Total U.S. public finance
 
272,114

 
A
 
291,866

 
A
Non-U.S. public finance:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Infrastructure finance
 
12,008

 
BBB
 
12,728

 
BBB
 
Regulated utilities
 
9,535

 
BBB+
 
10,048

 
BBB+
 
Pooled infrastructure
 
1,637

 
AA
 
1,879

 
AA
 
Other public finance
 
4,948

 
A
 
4,922

 
A
 
 
Total non-U.S. public finance
 
28,128

 
BBB+
 
29,577

 
BBB+
Total public finance
 
$
300,242

 
A
 
$
321,443

 
A
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
U.S. structured finance:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Pooled corporate obligations
 
$
11,913

 
AAA
 
$
16,008

 
AAA
 
RMBS
 
6,082

 
BBB-
 
7,067

 
BBB-
 
Insurance securitizations
 
2,439

 
A+
 
3,000

 
A+
 
Consumer receivables
 
1,905

 
A-
 
2,099

 
A-
 
Financial products
 
1,809

 
AA-
 
1,906

 
AA-
 
CMBS and other commercial real estate related exposures
 
387

 
AAA
 
533

 
AAA
 
Commercial receivables
 
362

 
BBB
 
427

 
BBB+
 
Other structured finance
 
665

 
AA
 
730

 
AA-
 
 
Total U.S. structured finance
 
25,562

 
AA-
 
31,770

 
AA-
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Non-U.S. structured finance:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Pooled corporate obligations
 
2,532

 
AA-
 
3,645

 
AA
 
RMBS
 
484

 
BBB
 
492

 
BBB
 
Commercial receivables
 
441

 
BBB
 
600

 
BBB+
 
Other structured finance
 
603

 
AA-
 
621

 
AA-
 
 
Total non-U.S. structured finance
 
4,060

 
A+
 
5,358

 
AA-
Total structured finance
 
$
29,622

 
A+
 
$
37,128

 
AA-
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Total
 
$
329,864

 
A
 
$
358,571

 
A


Please refer to the Glossary for an explanation of the presentation of net par outstanding and the Company's internal rating approach, and of the various sectors.



16



Assured Guaranty Ltd.
Financial Guaranty Profile (2 of 4)
As of June 30, 2016
(dollars in millions)


Distribution by Ratings of Financial Guaranty Portfolio

 
 
 
Public Finance - U.S.
 
Public Finance - Non-U.S.
 
Structured Finance - U.S.
 
Structured Finance - Non-U.S.
 
Total
Ratings:
 
Net Par Outstanding
%
 
Net Par Outstanding
%
 
Net Par Outstanding
%
 
Net Par Outstanding
%
 
Net Par Outstanding
%
AAA
 
$
2,376

0.9
%
 
$
695

2.5
%
 
$
11,362

44.4
%
 
$
1,628

40.1
%
 
$
16,061

4.9
%
AA
 
59,310

21.8

 
1,775

6.3

 
6,719

26.3

 
149

3.7

 
67,953

20.6

A
 
142,028

52.2

 
6,440

22.9

 
2,008

7.9

 
457

11.2

 
150,933

45.7

BBB
 
60,132

22.1

 
17,840

63.4

 
920

3.6

 
1,235

30.4

 
80,127

24.3

BIG
 
8,268

3.0

 
1,378

4.9

 
4,553

17.8

 
591

14.6

 
14,790

4.5

 
Net Par Outstanding (1)
 
$
272,114

100.0
%
 
$
28,128

100.0
%
 
$
25,562

100.0
%
 
$
4,060

100.0
%
 
$
329,864

100.0
%

1)
Excludes $1.4 billion of loss mitigation securities insured and held by the Company as of June 30, 2016, which are primarily BIG.



Please refer to the Glossary for an explanation of the presentation of net par outstanding and the Company's internal rating approach, and of the various sectors.





17



Assured Guaranty Ltd.
Financial Guaranty Profile (3 of 4)
As of June 30, 2016
(dollars in millions)


Geographic Distribution of Financial Guaranty Portfolio

 
 
 
Net Par Outstanding
 
% of Total
U.S.:
 
 
 
 
U.S. public finance:
 
 
 
 
 
California
 
$
47,147

 
14.3
%
 
Pennsylvania
 
22,360

 
6.8

 
Texas
 
22,009

 
6.7

 
New York
 
21,075

 
6.4

 
Illinois
 
19,279

 
5.8

 
Florida
 
15,320

 
4.6

 
New Jersey
 
13,252

 
4.0

 
Michigan
 
9,768

 
3.0

 
Georgia
 
6,792

 
2.1

 
Ohio
 
6,346

 
1.9

 
Other states
 
88,766

 
26.9

 
 
Total public finance
 
272,114

 
82.5

U.S. structured finance:
 
25,562

 
7.7

 
 
Total U.S.
 
297,676

 
90.2

 
 
 
 
 
 
Non-U.S.:
 
 
 
 
 
United Kingdom
 
16,702

 
5.1

 
Australia
 
3,330

 
1.0

 
Canada
 
2,866

 
0.9

 
France
 
2,516

 
0.8

 
Italy
 
1,266

 
0.4

 
Other
 
5,508

 
1.6

 
 
Total non-U.S.
 
32,188

 
9.8

 
 
 
 
 
 
Total net par outstanding
 
$
329,864

 
100.0
%

Please refer to the Glossary for an explanation of the presentation of net par outstanding and of the various sectors.



18



Assured Guaranty Ltd.
Financial Guaranty Profile (4 of 4)
As of June 30, 2016
(dollars in millions)


Net Direct Economic Exposure to Selected European Countries (1)

 
Hungary
 
Italy
 
Portugal
 
Spain
 
Turkey (4)
 
Total
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Sub-sovereign exposure (2)
$
265

 
$
793

 
$
80

 
$
366

 
$

 
$
1,504

Non-sovereign exposure (3)
174

 
432

 

 

 
204

 
810

Total
$
439

 
$
1,225

 
$
80

 
$
366

 
$
204

 
$
2,314

Total BIG
$
369

 
$

 
$
80

 
$
366

 
$

 
$
815


1)
While the Company’s exposures are shown in U.S. dollars, the obligations the Company insures are in various currencies, primarily Euros.
 
2)
Sub-sovereign exposure in Selected European Countries includes transactions backed by receivables from or supported by sub-sovereigns, which are governmental or government-backed entities other than the ultimate governing body of the country.

3)
Non-sovereign exposure in Selected European Countries includes debt of regulated utilities, RMBS and diversified payment rights (DPR) securitizations.

4)
The $204 million net insured par exposure in Turkey is to DPR securitizations sponsored by a major Turkish bank. These DPR securitizations were established outside of Turkey and involve payment orders in U.S. dollars, pounds sterling and Euros from persons outside of Turkey to beneficiaries in Turkey who are customers of the sponsoring bank. The sponsoring bank's correspondent banks have agreed to remit all such payments to a trustee-controlled account outside Turkey, where debt service payments for the DPR securitization are given priority over payments to the sponsoring bank.



Please refer to the Glossary for an explanation of the Company's net par outstanding, internal rating approach and of the various sectors.


19



Assured Guaranty Ltd.
Exposure to Puerto Rico (1 of 3)
As of June 30, 2016
(dollars in millions)

Exposure to Puerto Rico
 
Gross Par Outstanding
 
Net Par Outstanding
 
Gross Debt Service Outstanding
 
Net Debt Service Outstanding
   Total
$
5,756

 
$
5,054

 
$
9,483

 
$
8,466



Net Exposure to Puerto Rico by Risk(1) 
 
Net Par Outstanding
 
 
 
AGM
 
AGC
 
AG Re
 
Eliminations (2)
 
Total Net Par Outstanding (3)
 
Gross Par Outstanding
Commonwealth Constitutionally Guaranteed
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Commonwealth of Puerto Rico - General Obligation Bonds (5)
$
720

 
$
415

 
$
480

 
$

 
$
1,615

 
$
1,738

Puerto Rico Public Buildings Authority (PBA)(5)
13

 
137

 
38

 

 
188

 
194

Public Corporations - Certain Revenues Potentially Subject to Clawback(4)
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Puerto Rico Highways and Transportation Authority (PRHTA) (Transportation revenue)
289

 
476

 
225

 
(80
)
 
910

 
937

PRHTA (Highways revenue)
219

 
100

 
50

 

 
369

 
574

Puerto Rico Convention Center District Authority (PRCCDA)

 
82

 
82

 

 
164

 
164

Puerto Rico Infrastructure Financing Authority (PRIFA)(5)

 
10

 
8

 

 
18

 
18

Other Public Corporations
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Puerto Rico Electric Power Authority (PREPA)
431

 
74

 
239

 

 
744

 
902

Puerto Rico Aqueduct and Sewer Authority (PRASA)

 
296

 
92

 

 
388

 
388

Puerto Rico Municipal Finance Agency (MFA)
206

 
65

 
116

 

 
387

 
570

Puerto Rico Sales Tax Financing Corporation (COFINA)
262

 

 
8

 

 
270

 
270

University of Puerto Rico

 
1

 

 

 
1

 
1

Total net exposure to Puerto Rico
$
2,140

 
$
1,656

 
$
1,338

 
$
(80
)
 
$
5,054

 
$
5,756


1)
The general obligation bonds of Puerto Rico and various obligations of its related authorities and public corporations are rated triple-C or below.

2)
Net par outstanding eliminations relate to second-to-pay policies under which an Assured Guaranty insurance subsidiary guarantees an obligation already insured by another Assured Guaranty insurance subsidiary.

3)
Includes exposure to capital appreciation bonds with a current aggregate net par outstanding of $34 million and a fully accreted net par at maturity of $67 million. Of these amounts, current net par of $18 million and fully accreted net par at maturity of $50 million relate to the Puerto Rico Sales Tax Financing Corporation, current net par of $10 million and fully accreted net par at maturity of $11 million relate to the PRHTA, and current net par of $5 million and fully accreted net par at maturity of $5 million relate to the Commonwealth General Obligation Bonds.

4)
The Governor issued executive orders on November 30, 2015, and December 8, 2015, directing the Puerto Rico Department of Treasury and the Puerto Rico Tourism Company to retain or transfer certain taxes and revenues pledged to secure the payment of bonds issued by PRHTA, PRIFA and PRCCDA. On January 7, 2016 the Company sued various Puerto Rico governmental officials in the United States District Court, District of Puerto Rico asserting that this attempt to “claw back” pledged taxes and revenues is unconstitutional, and demanding declaratory and injunctive relief.

5)
As of the date of this filing, the Company has paid claims on these credits.

20



Assured Guaranty Ltd.
Exposure to Puerto Rico (2 of 3)
As of June 30, 2016
(dollars in millions)

Amortization Schedule of Net Par Outstanding of Puerto Rico(1) 
 
2016 (3Q)
2016 (4Q)
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026 -2030
2031 -2035
2036 -2040
2041 -2045
2046 -2047
Total
Commonwealth Constitutionally Guaranteed
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Commonwealth of Puerto Rico - General Obligation Bonds
$
142

$
0

$
95

$
75

$
82

$
137

$
16

$
37

$
14

$
73

$
68

$
255

$
475

$
146

$

$

$
1,615

PBA
8


30


5

10

12

0

7

0

8

53

39

16



188

Public Corporations - Certain Revenues Potentially Subject to Clawback
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
PRHTA (Transportation revenue)
33

0

36

42

28

23

18

19

21

1

26

150

228

240

45


910

PRHTA (Highways revenue)
19


10

10

21

22

26

6

8

8

8

27

167

37



369

PRCCDA
11











19

105

29



164

PRIFA



2





2





10

4


18

Other Public Corporations
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
PREPA
20

0

5

4

25

42

22

22

81

78

52

309

84

0



744

PRASA
15









2

25

84


2

92

168

388

MFA
55


47

47

44

37

33

33

16

12

11

52





387

COFINA
(1
)
0

(1
)
(1
)
(1
)
(1
)
(2
)
(2
)
1

0

(2
)
(6
)
32

99

155


270

University of Puerto Rico
0


0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

1




1

Total net par for Puerto Rico
$
302

$
0

$
222

$
179

$
204

$
270

$
125

$
115

$
150

$
174

$
196

$
943

$
1,131

$
579

$
296

$
168

$
5,054



1)
Includes exposure to capital appreciation bonds with a current aggregate net par outstanding of $34 million and a fully accreted net par at maturity of $67 million. Of these amounts, current net par of $18 million and fully accreted net par at maturity of $50 million relate to the Puerto Rico Sales Tax Financing Corporation, current net par of $10 million and fully accreted net par at maturity of $11 million relate to the PRHTA, and current net par of $5 million and fully accreted net par at maturity of $5 million relate to the Commonwealth General Obligation Bonds.


21



Assured Guaranty Ltd.
Exposure to Puerto Rico (3 of 3)
As of June 30, 2016
(dollars in millions)

Amortization Schedule of Net Debt Service Outstanding of Puerto Rico(1) 
 
2016 (3Q)
2016 (4Q)
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026 -2030
2031 -2035
2036 -2040
2041 -2045
2046 -2047
Total
Commonwealth Constitutionally Guaranteed
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Commonwealth of Puerto Rico - General Obligation Bonds
$
184

$
0

$
171

$
146

$
150

$
201

$
72

$
93

$
69

$
127

$
117

$
459

$
605

$
161

$

$

$
2,555

PBA
13


39

8

12

18

20

6

14

6

14

72

49

16



287

Public Corporations - Certain Revenues Potentially Subject to Clawback
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
PRHTA (Transportation revenue)
57

0

82

86

69

63

57

57

58

37

61

309

348

288

47


1,619

PRHTA (Highways revenue)
29


29

29

39

39

42

20

21

21

21

87

203

38



618

PRCCDA
15


7

7

7

7

7

7

7

7

7

51

127

30



286

PRIFA
0


1

3

1

1

1

1

3

0

1

4

3

13

4


36

Other Public Corporations
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
PREPA
35

2

38

37

58

74

52

50

109

102

73

366

92

0



1,088

PRASA
25


19

19

19

19

19

19

20

21

45

160

68

70

159

181

863

MFA
64


64

62

56

47

40

39

21

16

15

57





481

COFINA
6

0

13

13

13

13

13

13

16

15

12

68

103

164

170


632

University of Puerto Rico
0


0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

1




1

Total net par for Puerto Rico
$
428

$
2

$
463

$
410

$
424

$
482

$
323

$
305

$
338

$
352

$
366

$
1,633

$
1,599

$
780

$
380

$
181

$
8,466



1)
Includes exposure to capital appreciation bonds with a current aggregate net par outstanding of $34 million and a fully accreted net par at maturity of $67 million. Of these amounts, current net par of $18 million and fully accreted net par at maturity of $50 million relate to the Puerto Rico Sales Tax Financing Corporation, current net par of $10 million and fully accreted net par at maturity of $11 million relate to the PRHTA, and current net par of $5 million and fully accreted net par at maturity of $5 million relate to the Commonwealth General Obligation Bonds.

22



Assured Guaranty Ltd.
Direct Pooled Corporate Obligations Profile
As of June 30, 2016
(dollars in millions)


Distribution of Direct Pooled Corporate Obligations by Ratings
 
 
 
Net Par Outstanding
 
% of Total
 
Avg. Initial Credit Enhancement
 
Avg. Current Credit Enhancement
Ratings:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
AAA
 
$
9,840

 
68.8
%
 
23.4
%
 
29.7
%
 
AA
 
2,029

 
14.2

 
44.9

 
54.1

 
A
 
977

 
6.8

 
44.3

 
47.3

 
BBB
 
601

 
4.2

 
39.0

 
37.8

 
BIG
 
855

 
6.0

 
39.7

 
23.6

 
 
Total exposures
 
$
14,302

 
100.0
%
 
29.1
%
 
34.4
%


Distribution of Direct Pooled Corporate Obligations by Asset Class
 
 
 
Net Par Outstanding
 
% of Total
 
Avg. Initial Credit Enhancement
 
Avg. Current Credit Enhancement
 
Avg. Rating
Asset class:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Synthetic investment grade pooled corporates
 
$
7,116

 
49.7
%
 
21.7
%
 
19.4
%
 
AAA
 
CBOs/CLOs
 
3,275

 
22.9

 
29.3

 
55.1

 
AAA
 
Trust preferred
 
 
 


 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Banks and insurance
 
2,199

 
15.4

 
45.3

 
46.6

 
A
 
 
U.S. mortgage and real estate investment trusts
 
560

 
3.9

 
49.5

 
51.6

 
BBB
 
 
European mortgage and real estate investment trusts
 
496

 
3.5

 
36.4

 
37.6

 
BBB
 
Other pooled corporates
 
656

 
4.6

 

 

 
BB
 
 
Total exposures
 
$
14,302

 
100.0
%
 
29.1
%
 
34.4
%
 
AA+

Please refer to the Glossary for an explanation of internal ratings, performance indicators and sectors.




23



Assured Guaranty Ltd.
Consolidated U.S. RMBS Profile
As of June 30, 2016
(dollars in millions)

                
Distribution of U.S. RMBS by Rating and Type of Exposure
Ratings:
 
Prime First Lien
 
Alt-A First Lien
 
Option ARMs
 
Subprime First Lien
 
Second Lien
 
Total Net Par Outstanding
AAA
 
$
2

 
$
197

 
$
16

 
$
1,510

 
$
9

 
$
1,736

AA
 
35

 
256

 
73

 
334

 
1

 
699

A
 
14

 
8

 
2

 
46

 
0

 
70

BBB
 
61

 
7

 

 
83

 
0

 
151

BIG
 
124

 
622

 
96

 
1,220

 
1,366

 
3,427

Total exposures
 
$
236

 
$
1,089

 
$
186

 
$
3,193

 
$
1,376

 
$
6,082



Distribution of U.S. RMBS by Year Insured and Type of Exposure
 
Year
insured:
 
Prime First Lien
 
Alt-A First Lien
 
Option ARMs
 
Subprime First Lien
 
Second Lien
 
Total Net Par Outstanding
2004 and prior
 
$
44

 
$
49

 
$
16

 
$
1,003

 
$
89

 
$
1,202

2005
 
114

 
414

 
34

 
170

 
302

 
1,034

2006
 
79

 
83

 
30

 
674

 
385

 
1,251

2007
 

 
543

 
107

 
1,279

 
600

 
2,528

2008
 

 

 

 
67

 

 
67

  Total exposures
 
$
236

 
$
1,089

 
$
186

 
$
3,193

 
$
1,376

 
$
6,082




Please refer to the Glossary for an explanation of the Company's presentation of net par outstanding and a description of performance indicators and sectors.

























24



Assured Guaranty Ltd.
Below Investment Grade Exposures (1 of 5)
(dollars in millions)

BIG Exposures by Asset Exposure Type
                                                                
 
 
 
BIG Net Par Outstanding
 
 
 
June 30, 2016
 
December 31, 2015
U.S. public finance:
 
 
 
 
 
General obligation
 
$
3,590

 
$
2,964

 
Tax backed
 
2,352

 
2,389

 
Municipal utilities
 
1,188

 
1,247

 
Infrastructure finance
 
404

 
403

 
Healthcare
 
303

 
350

 
Higher education
 
280

 
244

 
Transportation
 
86

 
86

 
Housing
 
19

 
19

 
Other public finance
 
46

 
82

 
 
Total U.S. public finance
 
8,268

 
7,784

Non-U.S. public finance:
 
 
 
 
 
Infrastructure finance
 
1,054

 
1,053

 
Other public finance
 
324

 
325

 
 
Total non-U.S. public finance
 
1,378

 
1,378

Total public finance
 
$
9,646

 
$
9,162

 
 
 
 
 
 
U.S. structured finance:
 
 
 
 
 
RMBS
 
$
3,427

 
$
3,973

 
Pooled corporate obligations
 
563

 
806

 
Consumer receivables
 
244

 
305

 
Insurance securitizations
 
216

 
216

 
Commercial receivables
 
87

 
75

 
Other structured finance
 
16

 
94

 
 
Total U.S. structured finance
 
4,553

 
5,469

Non-U.S. structured finance:
 
 
 
 
 
Pooled corporate obligations
 
385

 
386

 
RMBS
 
105

 
103

 
Commercial receivables
 
101

 
63

 
 
Total non-U.S. structured finance
 
591

 
552

Total structured finance
 
$
5,144

 
$
6,021

Total BIG net par outstanding
 
$
14,790

 
$
15,183



Please refer to the Glossary for an explanation of the Company's presentation of net par outstanding and a description of various sectors.



25



Assured Guaranty Ltd.
Below Investment Grade Exposures (2 of 5)
(dollars in millions)


Net Par Outstanding by BIG Category(1)  
 
 
 
June 30, 2016
 
December 31, 2015
Category 1
 
 
 
 
 
U.S. public finance
 
$
4,902

 
$
4,765

 
Non-U.S. public finance
 
863

 
875

 
U.S. structured finance
 
817

 
1,874

 
Non-U.S. structured finance
 
474

 
509

 
 
Total Category 1
 
7,056

 
8,023

Category 2
 
 
 
 
 
U.S. public finance
 
3,191

 
2,883

 
Non-U.S. public finance
 
515

 
503

 
U.S. structured finance
 
746

 
700

 
Non-U.S. structured finance
 
117

 
43

 
 
Total Category 2
 
4,569

 
4,129

Category 3
 
 
 
 
 
U.S. public finance
 
175

 
136

 
Non-U.S. public finance
 

 

 
U.S. structured finance
 
2,990

 
2,895

 
Non-U.S. structured finance
 

 

 
 
Total Category 3
 
3,165

 
3,031

 
 
 
BIG Total
 
$
14,790

 
$
15,183



1)
Assured Guaranty's surveillance department is responsible for monitoring the Company's portfolio of credits and maintains a list of BIG credits. BIG Category 1: Below-investment-grade transactions showing sufficient deterioration to make future losses possible, but for which none are currently expected. BIG Category 2: Below-investment-grade transactions for which future losses are expected but for which no claims (other than liquidity claims which is a claim that the Company expects to be reimbursed within one year) have yet been paid. BIG Category 3: Below-investment-grade transactions for which future losses are expected and on which claims (other than liquidity claims) have been paid.

Please refer to the Glossary for an explanation of the Company's internal rating approach, presentation of net par outstanding and a description of various sectors.




26



Assured Guaranty Ltd.
Below Investment Grade Exposures (3 of 5)
As of June 30, 2016
(dollars in millions)


Public Finance BIG Exposures with Revenue Sources Greater Than $50 Million

 
 
 
Net Par Outstanding
 
Internal Rating
Name or description
 
 
 
 
U.S. public finance:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Puerto Rico, General Obligation, Appropriations and Guarantees of the Commonwealth
 
$
1,821

 
CCC
 
 
 
Puerto Rico Highways & Transportation Authority
 
1,279

 
CCC-
 
 
 
Puerto Rico Electric Power Authority (PREPA)
 
744

 
CC
 
 
 
Puerto Rico Aqueduct & Sewer Authority (PRASA)
 
388

 
CCC
 
 
 
Puerto Rico Municipal Finance Agency
 
387

 
CCC-
 
 
 
Oyster Bay, New York
 
370

 
BB+
 
 
 
Louisville Arena Authority Inc.
 
336

 
BB
 
 
 
Puerto Rico Sales Tax Financing Corporation (COFINA)
 
270

 
CCC+
 
 
 
Puerto Rico Convention Center District Authority
 
164

 
CCC-
 
 
 
Woonsocket (City of), Rhode Island
 
138

 
BB
 
 
 
Stockton Pension Obligation Bonds, California
 
115

 
D
 
 
 
Penn Hills School District, Pennsylvania
 
107

 
BB
 
 
 
Butler County General Authority, Pennsylvania
 
105

 
BB
 
 
 
Detroit-Wayne County Stadium Authority, Michigan
 
93

 
BB-
 
 
 
Ebert Metropolitan District, Colorado
 
87

 
B+
 
 
 
Orange County Tourist Development Tax, Florida
 
85

 
BB
 
 
 
Atlantic City, New Jersey
 
73

 
BB
 
 
 
West Mifflin Area School District, Pennsylvania
 
72

 
BB
 
 
 
Knox Hills, LLC
 
65

 
B
 
 
 
Pennsylvania Economic Development Financing Authority (Capitol Region Parking System)
 
61

 
BB
 
 
 
Jennie Stuart Medical Center
 
58

 
BB+
 
 
 
Robert Wood Johnson Health Care Corporation at Hamilton
 
54

 
B+
 
 
 
Southlands Metropolitan District No. 1, Colorado
 
52

 
BB
 
 
 
Pacific Lutheran University, Washington
 
52

 
BB+
 
 
 
University of the Arts, Pennsylvania
 
51

 
BB
 
 
Total
 
$
7,027

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Non-U.S. public finance:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Reliance Rail Finance Pty Limited
 
$
513

 
BB
 
 
 
M6 Duna Autopalya Koncesszios Zartkoruen Mukodo Reszvenytarsasag
 
265

 
BB-
 
 
 
Valencia Fair
 
243

 
BB-
 
 
 
Autovia de la Mancha, S.A.
 
116

 
BB-
 
 
 
CountyRoute (A130) plc
 
96

 
BB-
 
 
 
Metropolitano de PortoLease and Sublease of Railroad Equipment
 
54

 
B+
 
 
Total
 
$
1,287

 
 
Total
 
$
8,314

 
 



Please refer to the Glossary for an explanation of the Company's internal rating approach, presentation of net par outstanding and a description of various sectors.



27



Assured Guaranty Ltd.
Below Investment Grade Exposures (4 of 5)
As of June 30, 2016
(dollars in millions)

Structured Finance BIG Exposures Greater Than $50 Million
 
 
BIG Net Par Outstanding
 
Internal Rating
 
Current Credit Enhancement
 
60+ Day Delinquencies
Name or description
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
U.S. structured finance:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
RMBS:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Option One 2007-FXD2
 
$
256

 
CCC
 
0.0%
 
20.7%
Countrywide HELOC 2006-I
 
213

 
B
 
0.0%
 
2.6%
MABS 2007-NCW
 
185

 
CCC
 
0.0%
 
37.4%
Nomura Asset Accept. Corp. 2007-1
 
174

 
CCC
 
0.0%
 
26.0%
Soundview 2007-WMC1
 
167

 
CCC
 
-
 
41.2%
Countrywide Home Equity Loan Trust 2007-D
 
130

 
CCC
 
0.0%
 
2.8%
New Century 2005-A
 
118

 
CCC
 
6.2%
 
18.6%
Countrywide Home Equity Loan Trust 2005-J
 
116

 
CCC
 
0.1%
 
4.6%
Countrywide HELOC 2006-F
 
113

 
CCC
 
0.0%
 
5.3%
Countrywide HELOC 2005-D
 
108

 
CCC
 
0.0%
 
5.0%
Countrywide HELOC 2007-B
 
101

 
B
 
0.0%
 
2.8%
Countrywide HELOC 2007-A
 
101

 
B
 
0.0%
 
3.8%
IndyMac 2007-H1 HELOC
 
84

 
B
 
0.0%
 
1.6%
Doral 2006-1
 
79

 
B
 
7.5%
 
22.2%
GMACM 2004-HE3
 
67

 
CCC
 
0.0%
 
6.4%
Soundview (Delta) 2008-1
 
67

 
CCC
 
1.8%
 
24.5%
Ace 2007-D1
 
55

 
CCC
 
3.6%
 
26.7%
Ace Home Equity Loan Trust 2007-SL1
 
55

 
CCC
 
-
 
6.4%
IMPAC CMB Trust Series 2007-A
 
50

 
BB
 
10.1%
 
16.6%
Total RMBS
 
$
2,239

 

 
 
 
 


Please refer to the Glossary for the Company's internal rating approach, presentation of net par outstanding and a description of performance indicators and sectors.

28



Assured Guaranty Ltd.
Below Investment Grade Exposures (5 of 5)
As of June 30, 2016
(dollars in millions)

Structured Finance BIG Exposures Greater Than $50 Million (continued)
 
 
BIG Net Par Outstanding
 
Internal Rating
 
Current Credit Enhancement
Name or description
 
 
 
 
 
 
U.S. structured finance:
 
 
 
 
 
 
Non-RMBS:
 
 
 
 
 
 
Alesco Preferred Funding XVI, Ltd.
 
$
215

 
BB
 
19.9%
Ballantyne Re Plc
 
175

 
CC
 
N/A
Taberna Preferred Funding II, Ltd.
 
147

 
B
 
31.5%
US Capital Funding IV, Ltd.
 
127

 
CCC
 
11.7%
Taberna Preferred Funding VI, Ltd.
 
74

 
BB-
 
38.8%
National Collegiate Trust Series 2006-2
 
68

 
CCC
 
N/A
Subtotal non-RMBS
 
$
806

 
 
 
 
Subtotal U.S. structured finance
 
$
3,045

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Non-U.S. structured finance:
 
 
 
 
 
 
Gleneagles Funding Ltd.
 
$
231

 
BB
 
N/A
Private Pooled Corporate Transaction
 
88

 
BB
 
N/A
Blade Engine Securitization Ltd. Series 2006-1A-1
 
74

 
CCC
 
N/A
FHB
 
57

 
BB-
 
N/A
Subtotal Non-U.S. structured finance
 
$
450

 
 
 
 
Total
 
$
3,495

 
 
 
 




Please refer to the Glossary for the Company's internal rating approach, presentation of net par outstanding and a description of performance indicators and sectors.

29



Assured Guaranty Ltd.
Largest Exposures by Sector (1 of 4)
As of June 30, 2016
(dollars in millions)

50 Largest U.S. Public Finance Exposures by Revenue Source
                                                                                          
Credit Name:
 
Net Par Outstanding
 
Internal Rating
New Jersey (State of)
 
$
4,713

 
BBB+
California (State of)
 
2,242

 
A
Illinois (State of)
 
2,126

 
BBB+
New York (City of) New York
 
1,948

 
A+
Puerto Rico, General Obligation, Appropriations and Guarantees of the Commonwealth
 
1,821

 
CCC
Massachusetts (Commonwealth of)
 
1,771

 
AA
New York (State of)
 
1,756

 
A+
Los Angeles Unified School District, California
 
1,615

 
AA-
Pennsylvania (Commonwealth of)
 
1,611

 
A
Chicago (City of) Illinois
 
1,606

 
BBB+
Philadelphia (City of) Pennsylvania
 
1,510

 
BBB+
Wisconsin (State of)
 
1,444

 
A+
Miami-Dade County Florida Aviation Authority - Miami International Airport
 
1,401

 
A
Puerto Rico Highways & Transportation Authority
 
1,279

 
CCC-
New York Metropolitan Transportation Authority
 
1,275

 
A
Chicago Public Schools, Illinois
 
1,273

 
BBB-
Massachusetts (Commonwealth of) Water Resources
 
1,248

 
AA
Georgia Board of Regents
 
1,218

 
A
Port Authority of New York and New Jersey
 
1,200

 
A+
North Texas Tollway Authority Dallas, Texas
 
1,171

 
A
Michigan (State of)
 
1,072

 
A+
Long Island Power Authority
 
1,054

 
BBB+
Philadelphia School District, Pennsylvania
 
1,037

 
BBB
Great Lakes Water Authority (Sewerage), Michigan
 
1,032

 
BBB
Arizona (State of)
 
1,019

 
A+
Chicago-O'Hare International Airport, Illinois
 
1,002

 
A-
Miami-Dade County School Board, Florida
 
997

 
A-
Great Lakes Water Authority (Water), Michigan
 
878

 
BBB
Atlanta Georgia Water & Sewer System
 
870

 
BBB+
New York City Municipal Water Finance Authority
 
864

 
AA
Central Florida Expressway Authority, Florida
 
845

 
A+
Washington (State of)
 
809

 
AA
San Diego Unified School District, California
 
801

 
AA
Kentucky (Commonwealth of)
 
786

 
A+
Miami-Dade County, Florida Water & Sewer
 
771

 
A+
District of Columbia
 
771

 
AA-
Houston, Texas Water and Sewer Authority
 
764

 
AA-
Illinois Toll Highway Authority
 
750

 
AA-
Puerto Rico Electric Power Authority (PREPA)
 
744

 
CC
Metro Washington Airport Authority
 
729

 
A+
Oglethorpe Power Corporation, Georgia
 
718

 
BBB+
Pennsylvania Turnpike Commission
 
712

 
A-
Miami-Dade County, Florida
 
700

 
A+
Nassau County, New York
 
698

 
A-
Chicago Transit Authority, Illinois
 
688

 
AA-
San Jose Airport, California
 
686

 
BBB+
Metropolitan Pier & Exposition Authority, Illinois
 
681

 
A
Garden State Preservation Trust (Open Space & Farmland), New Jersey
 
642

 
AA
Jefferson County Alabama Sewer
 
637

 
BBB-
San Francisco (City & County) Airport Commission, California
 
635

 
A
   Total top 50 U.S. public finance exposures
 
$
58,620

 
 

Please refer to the Glossary for an explanation of net par outstanding, internal ratings and sectors.

30



Assured Guaranty Ltd.
Largest Exposures by Sector (2 of 4)
As of June 30, 2016
(dollars in millions)

50 Largest U.S. Structured Finance Exposures
Credit Name:
 
Net Par Outstanding
 
Internal Rating
 
Credit Enhancement
Private US Insurance Securitization
 
$
800

 
AA
 
N/A
Synthetic Investment Grade Pooled Corporate CDO
 
766

 
AAA
 
14.8%
Synthetic Investment Grade Pooled Corporate CDO
 
744

 
AAA
 
26.7%
Synthetic Investment Grade Pooled Corporate CDO
 
655

 
AAA
 
14.9%
Synthetic Investment Grade Pooled Corporate CDO
 
563

 
AAA
 
23.4%
Fortress Credit Opportunities I, LP.
 
546

 
AA
 
50.7%
Synthetic Investment Grade Pooled Corporate CDO
 
516

 
AAA
 
14.3%
Private US Insurance Securitization
 
500

 
AA
 
N/A
Synthetic Investment Grade Pooled Corporate CDO
 
450

 
AAA
 
17.7%
SLM Private Credit Student Trust 2007-A
 
450

 
A-
 
18.1%
Synthetic Investment Grade Pooled Corporate CDO
 
440

 
AAA
 
21.2%
LIICA Holdings, LLC
 
428

 
AA
 
N/A
SLM Private Credit Student Loan Trust 2007-6
 
392

 
AAA
 
4.2%
Synthetic Investment Grade Pooled Corporate CDO
 
380

 
AAA
 
29.2%
SLM Private Credit Student Loan Trust 2006-C
 
356

 
A-
 
21.3%
Synthetic Investment Grade Pooled Corporate CDO
 
346

 
AAA
 
16.3%
Synthetic Investment Grade Pooled Corporate CDO
 
311

 
AAA
 
14.2%
Cent CDO 15 Limited
 
287

 
AAA
 
100.0%
Synthetic Investment Grade Pooled Corporate CDO
 
283

 
AAA
 
30.3%
Synthetic Investment Grade Pooled Corporate CDO
 
270

 
AAA
 
29.1%
Cent CDO 12 Limited
 
258

 
AAA
 
25.1%
Option One 2007-FXD2
 
256

 
CCC
 
0.0%
Private US Insurance Securitization
 
250

 
AA
 
N/A
ALESCO Preferred Funding XIV
 
227

 
A+
 
43.7%
Alesco Preferred Funding XVI, Ltd.
 
215

 
BB
 
19.9%
Countrywide HELOC 2006-I
 
213

 
B
 
0.0%
Timberlake Financial, LLC Floating Insured Notes
 
212

 
BBB-
 
N/A
Synthetic Investment Grade Pooled Corporate CDO
 
204

 
AAA
 
9.2%
Synthetic Investment Grade Pooled Corporate CDO
 
204

 
AAA
 
10.4%
MABS 2007-NCW
 
185

 
CCC
 
0.0%
Ballantyne Re Plc
 
175

 
CC
 
N/A
Grayson CLO
 
175

 
AAA
 
47.4%
Nomura Asset Accept. Corp. 2007-1
 
174

 
CCC
 
0.0%
Synthetic Investment Grade Pooled Corporate CDO
 
170

 
AAA
 
27.6%
CWALT Alternative Loan Trust 2007-HY9
 
167

 
A+
 
0.4%
Soundview 2007-WMC1
 
167

 
CCC
 
-
CWABS 2007-4
 
157

 
A
 
2.5%
Taberna Preferred Funding II, Ltd.
 
147

 
B
 
31.5%
Private Other Structured Finance Transaction
 
144

 
AAA
 
N/A
Trapeza CDO XI
 
137

 
A-
 
47.6%
ALESCO Preferred Funding XIII, Ltd.
 
137

 
AA
 
51.7%
Mountain View CLO II
 
136

 
AAA
 
30.4%
Countrywide Home Equity Loan Trust 2007-D
 
130

 
CCC
 
0.0%
US Capital Funding IV, Ltd
 
127

 
CCC
 
11.7%
Private Other Structured Finance Transaction
 
126

 
AAA
 
N/A
Kingsland IV
 
121

 
AAA
 
39.2%
Lime Street CLO, Ltd.
 
120

 
AAA
 
100.0%
Countrywide 2007-13
 
119

 
AA-
 
19.6%
New Century 2005-A
 
118

 
CCC
 
6.2%
Countrywide Home Equity Loan Trust 2005-J
 
116

 
CCC
 
0.1%
   Total top 50 U.S. structured finance exposures
 
$
14,570

 
 
 
 


Please refer to the Glossary for the Company's internal rating approach, presentation of net par outstanding and a description of various sectors.

31



Assured Guaranty Ltd.
Largest Exposures by Sector (3 of 4)
As of June 30, 2016
(dollars in millions)

25 Largest Non-U.S. Exposures by Revenue Source
Credit Name:
Country
 
Net Par Outstanding
 
Internal Rating
Hydro-Quebec, Province of Quebec
Canada
 
$
2,037

 
A+
Thames Water Utility Finance PLC
United Kingdom
 
1,045

 
A-
HIT Finance B.V.
France
 
996

 
BBB+
Channel Link Enterprises Finance PLC
France, United Kingdom
 
830

 
BBB
Capital Hospitals (Barts)
United Kingdom
 
730

 
BBB-
Artesian Finance II Plc (Southern)
United Kingdom
 
661

 
A-
Verbund - Lease and Sublease of Hydro-Electric Equipment
Austria
 
660

 
AAA
Southern Gas Networks PLC
United Kingdom
 
598

 
BBB
International Infrastructure Pool
United Kingdom
 
585

 
AA
Campania Region
Italy
 
572

 
BBB-
InspirED Education (South Lanarkshire) plc
Scotland
 
562

 
BBB-
A28 Motorway
France
 
537

 
BBB-
International Infrastructure Pool
United Kingdom
 
526

 
AA
International Infrastructure Pool
United Kingdom
 
526

 
AA
Reliance Rail Finance Pty Limited
Australia
 
513

 
BB
Southern Cross Airports Corporation Pty
Australia
 
502

 
BBB
Envestra Limited
Australia
 
486

 
BBB
Scotland Gas Networks Plc
United Kingdom
 
460

 
BBB
Central Nottinghamshire Hospitals PLC
United Kingdom
 
457

 
BBB
United Utilities Water PLC
United Kingdom
 
432

 
BBB+
NewHospitals (St Helens & Knowsley) Finance PLC
United Kingdom
 
424

 
BBB
The Hospital Company (QAH Portsmouth) Limited
United Kingdom
 
405

 
BBB
Yorkshire Water Services Finance Plc
United Kingdom
 
379

 
A-
Integrated Accommodation Services PLC
United Kingdom
 
368

 
BBB+
Northumbrian Water
United Kingdom
 
367

 
BBB+
Total top 25 non-U.S. exposures
 
 
$
15,658

 
 


Please refer to the Glossary for an explanation of net par outstanding, internal ratings and sectors.



32



Assured Guaranty Ltd.
Largest Exposures by Sector (4 of 4)
As of June 30, 2016
(dollars in millions)

10 Largest U.S. Residential Mortgage Servicer Exposures
Servicer:
 
Net Par Outstanding
Ocwen Loan Servicing, LLC (1)
 
$
1,880

Specialized Loan Servicing, LLC
 
1,560

Bank of America, N.A. (2)
 
1,344

Wells Fargo Bank N.A.
 
531

JPMorgan Chase Bank
 
228

Select Portfolio Servicing, Inc.
 
145

Banco Popular de Puerto Rico
 
79

Ditech Financial LLC
 
55

Carrington Mortgage Services, LLC
 
41

Citicorp Mortgage Securities, Inc.
 
38

Total top 10 U.S. residential mortgage servicer exposures
 
$
5,901


1) Includes GMAC Mortgage LLC, Residential Funding Inc. and Homeward Residential Inc.

2)
Includes Countrywide Home Loans Servicing LP.


10 Largest U.S. Healthcare Exposures
Credit Name:
 
Net Par Outstanding
 
Internal Rating
 
State
MultiCare Health System
 
$
409

 
AA-
 
WA
Dignity Health, California
 
370

 
A
 
CA
Children's National Medical Center, District of Columbia
 
365

 
A-
 
DC
CHRISTUS Health
 
364

 
A
 
TX
Methodist Healthcare
 
359

 
A+
 
TN
Bon Secours Health System Obligated Group
 
323

 
A-
 
MD
Carolina HealthCare System
 
319

 
AA-
 
NC
Palmetto Health Alliance, South Carolina
 
274

 
A-
 
SC
Columbus Regional Healthcare System Inc.
 
272

 
BBB-
 
GA
Catholic Health Partners
 
272

 
A+
 
OH
Total top 10 U.S. healthcare exposures
 
$
3,327

 
 
 
 


Please refer to the Glossary for the Company's internal rating approach and presentation of net par outstanding.





33



Assured Guaranty Ltd.
Rollforward of Net Expected Loss and LAE to be Paid After Benefit for R&W
(dollars in millions)

Rollforward of Net Expected Loss and LAE to be Paid(1) After Benefit for R&W for the Three Months Ended June 30, 2016
 
 
Net Expected
Loss to be
Paid (Recovered)
as of
March 31, 2016
 
Economic Loss Development During 2Q-16
 
(Paid) Recovered Losses
During 2Q-16
 
Net Expected
Loss to be
Paid (Recovered)
as of
June 30, 2016
Public Finance:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
U.S. public finance
 
$
864

 
$
111

 
$
(12
)
 
$
963

Non-U.S public finance
 
39

 
(2
)
 

 
37

Public Finance
 
903

 
109

 
(12
)
 
1,000

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
U.S. RMBS
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
First lien:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Prime first lien
 
(1
)
 
0

 
4

 
3

Alt-A first lien
 
36

 
(38
)
 
(94
)
 
(96
)
Option ARMs
 
(47
)
 
(10
)
 
1

 
(56
)
Subprime first lien
 
240

 
(26
)
 
13

 
227

Total first lien
 
228

 
(74
)
 
(76
)
 
78

Second lien
 
65

 
(7
)
 
56

 
114

Total U.S. RMBS (2)
 
293

 
(81
)
 
(20
)
 
192

Triple-X life insurance transactions
 
102

 
(2
)
 
0

 
100

Student loans
 
32

 
(1
)
 
0

 
31

Other structured finance
 
7

 
(3
)
 
(1
)
 
3

Structured Finance
 
434

 
(87
)
 
(21
)
 
326

Total
 
$
1,337

 
$
22

 
$
(33
)
 
$
1,326


Rollforward of Net Expected Loss and LAE to be Paid(1) After Benefit for R&W for the Six Months Ended June 30, 2016
 
 
Net Expected
Loss to be
Paid (Recovered)
as of
December 31, 2015
 
Economic Loss Development During 2016
 
(Paid) Recovered Losses
During 2016
 
Net Expected
Loss to be
Paid (Recovered)
as of
June 30, 2016
Public Finance:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
U.S. public finance
 
$
771

 
$
209

 
$
(17
)
 
$
963

Non-U.S public finance
 
38

 
(1
)
 

 
37

Public Finance
 
809

 
208

 
(17
)
 
1,000

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
U.S. RMBS
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
First lien:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Prime first lien
 
(2
)
 
0

 
5

 
3

Alt-A first lien
 
127

 
(54
)
 
(169
)
 
(96
)
Option ARMs
 
(28
)
 
(31
)
 
3

 
(56
)
Subprime first lien
 
251

 
(25
)
 
1

 
227

Total first lien
 
348

 
(110
)
 
(160
)
 
78

Second lien
 
61

 
(2
)
 
55

 
114

Total U.S. RMBS (2)
 
409

 
(112
)
 
(105
)
 
192

Triple-X life insurance transactions
 
99

 
2

 
(1
)
 
100

Student loans
 
54

 
(15
)
 
(8
)
 
31

Other structured finance
 
20

 
(2
)
 
(15
)
 
3

Structured Finance
 
582

 
(127
)
 
(129
)
 
326

Total
 
$
1,391

 
$
81

 
$
(146
)
 
$
1,326


1)
Includes expected loss to be paid, economic loss development and paid (recovered) losses for all contracts (i.e. those accounted for as insurance, credit derivatives and FG VIEs).
2)
Includes future net representations and warranties (R&W) recoverable (payable) of $79 million as of December 31, 2015, $47 million as of March 31, 2016 and $(58) million as of June 30, 2016.

34



Assured Guaranty Ltd.
Loss Measures
As of June 30, 2016
(dollars in millions)

 
 
 Total Net Par Outstanding for BIG Transactions
 
 
2Q-16 Loss and
LAE
 
2Q-16 Operating Loss
and LAE
 
 
2016 Loss and
LAE
 
2016 Operating Loss
and LAE
 
 
GAAP Net Expected Loss to be Expensed
 
Operating Net Expected Loss to be Expensed
Public Finance:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
U.S. public finance
 
$
8,268

 
 
$
116

 
$
116

 
 
$
213

 
$
213

 
 
$
181

 
$
181

Non-U.S public finance
 
1,378

 
 
(1
)
 
(1
)
 
 
(1
)
 
(1
)
 
 
13

 
13

Public Finance
 
9,646

 
 
115

 
115

 
 
212

 
212

 
 
194

 
194

Structured Finance:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
U.S. RMBS:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
First lien:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Prime first lien
 
124

 
 
(1
)
 
(1
)
 
 
(1
)
 
(1
)
 
 
$
0

 
0

Alt-A first lien
 
621

 
 
3

 
2

 
 
10

 
10

 
 
24

 
34

Option ARMs
 
96

 
 
(7
)
 
(8
)
 
 
(21
)
 
(24
)
 
 
16

 
16

Subprime
 
1,220

 
 
(9
)
 
(19
)
 
 
(5
)
 
(17
)
 
 
57

 
61

Total first lien
 
2,061

 
 
(14
)
 
(26
)
 
 
(17
)
 
(32
)
 
 
97

 
111

Second lien
 
1,366

 
 
5

 
4

 
 
12

 
17

 
 
58

 
116

Total U.S. RMBS
 
3,427

 
 
(9
)
 
(22
)
 
 
(5
)
 
(15
)
 
 
155

 
227

Triple-X life insurance transactions
 
216

 
 
(1
)
 
(1
)
 
 
2

 
2

 
 
5

 
5

TruPS
 
563

 
 
0

 
1

 
 
0

 
1

 
 

 

Student loans
 
110

 
 
0

 
0

 
 
(14
)
 
(14
)
 
 
1

 
1

Other structured finance
 
828

 
 
(3
)
 
(5
)
 
 
(3
)
 
(7
)
 
 
9

 
9

Structured Finance
 
5,144

 
 
(13
)
 
(27
)
 
 
(20
)
 
(33
)
 
 
170

 
242

Total
 
$
14,790

 
 
$
102

 
$
88

 
 
$
192

 
$
179

 
 
$
364

 
$
436



Reconciliation of GAAP to Non-GAAP operating loss measures

 
 
2Q-16
 
2016
Loss and LAE
 
$
102

 
$
192

Adjustments to add losses incurred related to:
 
 
 
 
Credit derivatives
 
$
(11
)
 
$
(17
)
FG VIEs
 
(3
)
 
4

Operating loss and LAE
 
$
88

 
$
179


 
 
As of June 30, 2016
GAAP net expected loss to be expensed
 
$
364

Adjustments to add net expected loss to be expensed related to:
 
 
Credit derivatives
 
0

FG VIEs
 
72

Operating net expected loss to be expensed
 
$
436

 
 
 
GAAP future accretion
 
$
199

Adjustments to add future accretion related to:
 
 
Credit derivatives
 
0

FG VIEs
 
17

Operating future accretion
 
$
216



Please refer to the Glossary for an explanation of the presentation of net par outstanding and of the various sectors.

35



Assured Guaranty Ltd.
Summary of Financial and Statistical Data
(dollars in millions, except per share amounts)
 
 
As of and for Six Months Ended
June 30, 2016
 
Year Ended December 31,
 
 
 
2015
 
2014
 
2013
 
2012
GAAP Summary Income Statement Data
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net earned premiums
 
$
397

 
$
766

 
$
570

 
$
752

 
$
853

 
Net investment income
 
197

 
423

 
403

 
393

 
404

 
Realized gains and other settlements on credit derivatives
 
32

 
(18
)
 
23

 
(42
)
 
(108
)
 
Total expenses
 
375

 
776

 
463

 
466

 
822

 
Income (loss) before income taxes
 
266

 
1,431

 
1,531

 
1,142

 
132

 
Net income (loss)
 
205

 
1,056

 
1,088

 
808

 
110

 
Net income (loss) per diluted share
 
1.51

 
7.08

 
6.26

 
4.30

 
0.57

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
GAAP Summary Balance Sheet Data
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Total investments and cash
 
$
10,905

 
$
11,358

 
$
11,459

 
$
10,969

 
$
11,223

 
Total assets
 
14,092

 
14,544

 
14,919

 
16,285

 
17,240

 
Unearned premium reserve
 
3,617

 
3,996

 
4,261

 
4,595

 
5,207

 
Loss and LAE reserve
 
1,268

 
1,067

 
799

 
592

 
601

 
Long-term debt
 
1,303

 
1,300

 
1,297

 
814

 
834

 
Shareholders’ equity
 
6,250

 
6,063

 
5,758

 
5,115

 
4,994

 
Shareholders’ equity per share
 
47.06

 
43.96

 
36.37

 
28.07

 
25.74

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Other Financial Information (GAAP Basis)
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net debt service outstanding (end of period)
 
$
488,362

 
$
536,341

 
$
609,622

 
$
690,535

 
$
780,356

 
Gross debt service outstanding (end of period)
 
508,805

 
559,470

 
646,722

 
737,380

 
833,098

 
Net par outstanding (end of period)
 
329,864

 
358,571

 
403,729

 
459,107

 
518,772

 
Gross par outstanding (end of period)
 
342,888

 
373,192

 
426,705

 
487,895

 
550,908

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Other Financial Information (Statutory Basis)(1)
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net debt service outstanding (end of period)
 
$
450,045

 
$
502,331

 
$
583,598

 
$
663,797

 
$
756,044

 
Gross debt service outstanding (end of period)
 
469,116

 
524,104

 
619,475

 
709,000

 
807,420

 
Net par outstanding (end of period)
 
294,506

 
327,306

 
379,714

 
434,597

 
496,237

 
Gross par outstanding (end of period)
 
306,229

 
340,662

 
401,552

 
461,845

 
527,126

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Claims-paying resources
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Policyholders' surplus
 
$
4,707

 
$
4,550

 
$
4,142

 
$
3,202

 
$
3,579

 
Contingency reserve
 
2,313

 
2,263

 
2,330

 
2,934

 
2,364

 
Qualified statutory capital
 
7,020

 
6,813

 
6,472

 
6,136

 
5,943

 
Unearned premium reserve
 
2,778

 
3,045

 
3,299

 
3,545

 
3,833

 
Loss and LAE reserves
 
852

 
1,043

 
852

 
773

 
512

 
Total policyholders' surplus and reserves
 
10,650

 
10,901

 
10,623

 
10,454

 
10,288

 
Present value of installment premium
 
528

 
645

 
716

 
858

 
1,005

 
CCS and standby line of credit
 
400

 
400

 
400

 
400

 
600

 
Excess of loss reinsurance facility
 
360

 
360

 
450

 
435

 
435

 
Total claims-paying resources
 
$
11,938

 
$
12,306

 
$
12,189

 
$
12,147

 
$
12,328

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Ratios:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net par outstanding to qualified statutory capital
 
42
:1
 
48
:1
 
59
:1
 
71
:1
 
83:1

 
 
Capital ratio(2)
 
64
:1
 
74
:1
 
90
:1
 
108
:1
 
127:1

 
 
Financial resources ratio(2)
 
38
:1
 
41
:1
 
48
:1
 
55
:1
 
61:1

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Par and Debt Service Written
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Gross debt service written:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Public finance - U.S.
 
$
11,103

 
$
25,832

 
$
20,804

 
$
15,559

 
$
25,252

 
 
Public finance - non-U.S.
 
543

 
2,054

 
233

 
674

 
40

 
 
Structured finance - U.S.
 
3

 
355

 
423

 
297

 
623

 
 
Structured finance - non-U.S.
 

 
69

 
387

 

 

 
Total gross debt service written
 
$
11,649

 
$
28,310

 
$
21,847

 
$
16,530

 
$
25,915

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net debt service written
 
$
11,649

 
$
28,310

 
$
21,847

 
$
16,497

 
$
25,915

 
Net par written
 
7,524

 
17,336

 
13,171

 
9,331

 
16,816

 
Gross par written
 
7,524

 
17,336

 
13,171

 
9,350

 
16,816

1) Statutory amounts prepared on a consolidated basis. The National Association of Insurance Commissioners Annual Statements for U.S. Domiciled Insurance Subsidiaries are prepared on a stand-alone basis.
2)
See page 8 for additional detail on claims-paying resources.

Please refer to the explanation of Non-GAAP Financial Measures set forth at the end of this Financial Supplement.
Please refer to the Glossary for an explanation of the presentation of net debt service and net par outstanding and of the various sectors.

36



Assured Guaranty Ltd.
Summary of Non-GAAP Financial Measures (1 of 2)
(dollars in millions, except per share amounts)

 
 
Six Months Ended
June 30, 2016
 
Year Ended December 31,
 
 
2015
 
2014
 
2013
 
2012
PVP:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Public finance - U.S.
 
$
64

 
$
124

 
$
128

 
$
116

 
$
166

Public finance - non-U.S.
 
14

 
27

 
7

 
18

 
1

Structured finance - U.S.
 
1

 
22

 
24

 
7

 
43

Structured finance - non-U.S.
 

 
6

 
9

 

 

Total PVP
 
79

 
179

 
168

 
141

 
210

Less: PVP of non-financial guaranty insurance
 
1

 
7

 

 

 

Less: Financial guaranty installment premium PVP
 
14

 
46

 
42

 
26

 
45

Plus: Installment GWP and other GAAP adjustments (1)
 
(9
)
 
55

 
(22
)
 
8

 
88

Total GWP
 
$
55

 
$
181

 
$
104

 
$
123

 
$
253

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Operating income reconciliation:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income (loss)
 
$
205

 
$
1,056

 
$
1,088

 
$
808

 
$
110

Less pre-tax adjustments:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Realized gains (losses) on investments
 
(5
)
 
(37
)
 
(51
)
 
54

 
(7
)
Non-credit impairment unrealized fair value gains (losses) on credit derivatives
 
(28
)
 
505

 
687

 
(49
)
 
(672
)
Fair value gains (losses) on CCS
 
(27
)
 
27

 
(11
)
 
10

 
(18
)
Foreign exchange gains (losses) on remeasurement of premiums receivable and loss and LAE reserves
 
(19
)
 
(15
)
 
(21
)
 
(1
)
 
21

Effect of consolidating FG VIEs
 
12

 
25

 
235

 
296

 
95

Total pre-tax adjustments
 
(67
)
 
505

 
839

 
310

 
(581
)
Less tax effect on pre-tax adjustments
 
20

 
(148
)
 
(242
)
 
(111
)
 
156

Operating income
 
$
252

 
$
699

 
$
491

 
$
609

 
$
535

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Operating income per diluted share reconciliation:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income (loss) per diluted share
 
$
1.51

 
$
7.08

 
$
6.26

 
$
4.30

 
$
0.57

Less pre-tax adjustments:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Realized gains (losses) on investments
 
(0.04
)
 
(0.25
)
 
(0.29
)
 
0.29

 
(0.04
)
Non-credit impairment unrealized fair value gains (losses) on credit derivatives
 
(0.21
)
 
3.39

 
3.95

 
(0.26
)
 
(3.53
)
Fair value gains (losses) on CCS
 
(0.20
)
 
0.18

 
(0.06
)
 
0.05

 
(0.09
)
Foreign exchange gains (losses) on remeasurement of premiums receivable and loss and LAE reserves
 
(0.14
)
 
(0.10
)
 
(0.12
)
 
(0.01
)
 
0.11

Effect of consolidating FG VIEs
 
0.09

 
0.17

 
1.35

 
1.58

 
0.50

Total pre-tax adjustments
 
(0.50
)
 
3.39

 
4.83

 
1.65

 
(3.05
)
Less tax effect on pre-tax adjustments
 
0.15

 
(1.00
)
 
(1.40
)
 
(0.60
)
 
0.81

Operating income per diluted share
 
$
1.86

 
$
4.69

 
$
2.83

 
$
3.25

 
$
2.81

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 

1)
Includes present value of new business on installment policies discounted at the prescribed GAAP discount rates, gross written premium adjustments on existing installment policies due to changes in assumptions, any cancellations of assumed reinsurance contracts, and other GAAP adjustments.


37



Assured Guaranty Ltd.
Summary of Non-GAAP Financial Measures (2 of 2)
(dollars in millions, except per share amounts)

 
 
As of
June 30, 2016
 
As of December 31,
 
 
2015
 
2014
 
2013
 
2012
Adjusted book value reconciliation:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Shareholders' equity
 
$
6,250

 
$
6,063

 
$
5,758

 
$
5,115

 
$
4,994

Less pre-tax adjustments:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Effect of consolidating FG VIEs
 
(18
)
 
(35
)
 
(68
)
 
(265
)
 
(545
)
Non-credit impairment unrealized fair value gains (losses) on credit derivatives
 
(265
)
 
(241
)
 
(741
)
 
(1,447
)
 
(1,346
)
Fair value gains (losses) on CCS
 
35

 
62

 
35

 
46

 
35

Unrealized gain (loss) on investment portfolio excluding foreign exchange effect
 
598

 
376

 
534

 
208

 
664

Taxes
 
(111
)
 
(45
)
 
65

 
409

 
356

Operating shareholders' equity
 
6,011

 
5,946

 
5,933

 
6,164

 
5,830

Pre-tax adjustments:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Less: Deferred acquisition costs
 
110

 
114

 
121

 
124

 
116

Plus: Net present value of estimated net future credit derivative revenue
 
93

 
169

 
159

 
214

 
317

Plus: Net unearned premium reserve on financial guaranty contracts in excess of expected loss to be expensed
 
3,073

 
3,417

 
3,497

 
3,880

 
4,407

Taxes
 
(852
)
 
(979
)
 
(973
)
 
(1,101
)
 
(1,287
)
Adjusted book value
 
$
8,215

 
$
8,439

 
$
8,495

 
$
9,033

 
$
9,151

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Adjusted book value per share reconciliation:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Shareholders' equity per share
 
$
47.06

 
$
43.96

 
$
36.37

 
$
28.07

 
$
25.74

Less pre-tax adjustments:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Effect of consolidating FG VIEs
 
(0.13
)
 
(0.25
)
 
(0.43
)
 
(1.45
)
 
(2.81
)
Non-credit impairment unrealized fair value gains (losses) on credit derivatives
 
(2.00
)
 
(1.75
)
 
(4.68
)
 
(7.94
)
 
(6.94
)
Fair value gains (losses) on CCS
 
0.26

 
0.45

 
0.22

 
0.25

 
0.18

Unrealized gain (loss) on investment portfolio excluding foreign exchange effect
 
4.50

 
2.73

 
3.37

 
1.14

 
3.42

Taxes
 
(0.83
)
 
(0.33
)
 
0.41

 
2.24

 
1.84

Operating shareholders' equity per share
 
45.26

 
43.11

 
37.48

 
33.83

 
30.05

Pre-tax adjustments:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Less: Deferred acquisition costs
 
0.83

 
0.83

 
0.76

 
0.68

 
0.60

Plus: Net present value of estimated net future credit derivative revenue
 
0.70

 
1.23

 
1.00

 
1.17

 
1.63

Plus: Net unearned premium reserve on financial guaranty contracts in excess of expected loss to be expensed
 
23.14

 
24.77

 
22.09

 
21.30

 
22.72

Taxes
 
(6.41
)
 
(7.10
)
 
(6.15
)
 
(6.04
)
 
(6.63
)
Adjusted book value per share
 
$
61.86

 
$
61.18

 
$
53.66

 
$
49.58

 
$
47.17

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 



38



Glossary

Net Par Outstanding and Internal Ratings
Net par outstanding is insured par exposure, net of reinsurance cessions. Unless otherwise indicated, GAAP net par outstanding amounts exclude amounts related to securities the Company has purchased for loss mitigation purposes.

Internal Rating utilizes the Company’s ratings scale, which is similar to that used by the nationally recognized statistical rating organizations; however, the ratings in the tables may not be the same as ratings assigned by any such rating agency.

Statutory Net Par and Net Debt Service Outstanding. Under statutory accounting, net par and net debt service outstanding would be reduced both when an outstanding issue is legally defeased (i.e., an issuer has legally discharged its obligations with respect to a municipal security by satisfying conditions set forth in defeasance provisions contained in transaction documents and is no longer responsible for the payment of debt service with respect to such obligations) and when such issue is economically defeased (i.e., transaction documents for a municipal security do not contain defeasance provisions but the issuer establishes an escrow account with United States (U.S.) government securities in amounts sufficient to pay the refunded bonds when due; the refunded bonds are not considered paid and continue to be outstanding under the transaction documents and the issuer remains responsible to pay debt service when due to the extent monies on deposit in the escrow account are insufficient for such purpose).

Performance Indicators
The performance information described below is obtained from third parties and/or provided by the trustee and may be subject to revision as updated or additional information are obtained:

60+ Day Delinquencies are defined as loans that are greater than 60 days delinquent and all loans that are in foreclosure, bankruptcy or real estate owned divided by current collateral balance.

Average Credit Enhancement is intended to provide a measure of the amount of equity and/or subordinated tranches that are junior in the capital structure to Assured Guaranty’s exposure, expressed as a percentage of the total transaction size, and reflects any reduction of that credit support resulting from defaults or other factors. For transactions where excess spread may be available to absorb certain losses, the amounts shown do not include any benefit from excess spread. The calculation methodologies differ for the various asset classes to reflect differences in transaction structures in order to provide a measure that management believes is comparable across asset classes. Some asset classes may not have subordinated tranches so they are excluded from the weighted averages.

Sectors
Below are brief descriptions of selected types of public and structured finance obligations that the Company insures and reinsures. For a more complete description, please refer to Assured Guaranty Ltd.’s Annual Report on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2015.

Public Finance:
General Obligation Bonds are full faith and credit bonds that are issued by states, their political subdivisions and other municipal issuers, and are supported by the general obligation of the issuer to pay from available funds and by a pledge of the issuer to levy ad valorem taxes in an amount sufficient to provide for the full payment of the bonds.

Tax-Backed Bonds are obligations that are supported by the issuer from specific and discrete sources of taxation. They include tax-backed revenue bonds, general fund obligations and lease revenue bonds. Tax-backed obligations may be secured by a lien on specific pledged tax revenues, such as a gasoline or excise tax, or incrementally from growth in property tax revenue associated with growth in property values. These obligations also include obligations secured by special assessments levied against property owners and often benefit from issuer covenants to enforce collections of such assessments and to foreclose on delinquent properties. Lease revenue bonds typically are general fund obligations of a municipality or other governmental authority that are subject to annual appropriation or abatement; projects financed and subject to such lease payments ordinarily include real estate or equipment serving an essential public purpose. Bonds in this category also include moral obligations of municipalities or governmental authorities.

Municipal Utility Bonds are obligations of all forms of municipal utilities, including electric, water and sewer utilities and resource recovery revenue bonds. These utilities may be organized in various forms, including municipal enterprise systems, authorities or joint action agencies.


39



Glossary (continued)

Sectors (continued)

Transportation Bonds include a wide variety of revenue-supported bonds, such as bonds for airports, ports, tunnels, municipal parking facilities, toll roads and toll bridges.

Healthcare Bonds are obligations of healthcare facilities, including community-based hospitals and systems, as well as of health maintenance organizations and long-term care facilities.

Higher Education Bonds are obligations secured by revenue collected by either public or private secondary schools, colleges and universities. Such revenue can encompass all of an institution’s revenue, including tuition and fees, or in other cases, can be specifically restricted to certain auxiliary sources of revenue.

Infrastructure Bonds include obligations issued by a variety of entities engaged in the financing of infrastructure projects, such as roads, airports, ports, social infrastructure and other physical assets delivering essential services supported by long-term concession arrangements with a public sector entity.

Investor-Owned Utility Bonds are obligations primarily backed by investor-owned utilities, first mortgage bond obligations of for-profit electric or water utilities providing retail, industrial and commercial service, and also include sale-leaseback obligation bonds supported by such entities.

Housing Revenue Bonds are obligations relating to both single and multi-family housing, issued by states and localities, supported by cash flow and, in some cases, insurance from entities such as the Federal Housing Administration.

Regulated Utilities Obligations are issued by government-regulated providers of essential services and commodities, including electric, water and gas utilities. The majority of the Company's international regulated utility business is conducted in the United Kingdom.

Pooled Infrastructure Obligations are synthetic asset-backed obligations that take the form of credit default swap obligations or credit-linked notes that reference either infrastructure finance obligations or a pool of such obligations, with a defined deductible to cover credit risks associated with the referenced obligations.

Other Public Finance primarily includes government insured student loans, government-sponsored project finance and structured municipal transactions, which includes excess of loss reinsurance on portfolios of municipal credits.

Structured Finance:
Pooled Corporate Obligations are securities primarily backed by various types of corporate debt obligations, such as secured or unsecured bonds, bank loans or loan participations and trust preferred securities (TruPS). These securities are often issued in ‘‘tranches,’’ with subordinated tranches providing credit support to the more senior tranches. The Company’s financial guaranty exposures generally are to the more senior tranches of these issues.

Residential Mortgage-Backed Securities (RMBS) are obligations backed by closed-end and open-end first and second lien mortgage loans on one-to-four family residential properties, including condominiums and cooperative apartments. First lien mortgage loan products in these transactions include fixed rate, adjustable rate (ARM) and option adjustable-rate (Option ARM) mortgages. The credit quality of borrowers covers a broad range, including ‘‘prime’’, ‘‘subprime’’ and ‘‘Alt-A’’. A prime borrower is generally defined as one with strong risk characteristics as measured by factors such as payment history, credit score, and debt-to-income ratio. A subprime borrower is a borrower with higher risk characteristics, usually as determined by credit score and/or credit history. An Alt-A borrower is generally defined as a prime quality borrower that lacks certain ancillary characteristics, such as fully documented income.

Additional insured obligations within RMBS include Home Equity Lines of Credit (HELOCs), which refers to a type of residential mortgage-backed transaction backed by second-lien loan collateral consisting of home equity lines of credit. U.S. Prime First Lien is a type of residential mortgage-backed securities transaction backed primarily by prime first-lien loan collateral plus an insignificant amount of other miscellaneous RMBS transactions.

CBOs/CLOs (collateralized bond obligations and collateralized loan obligations) are asset-backed securities largely backed by non-investment grade/high yield collateral.

Commercial Mortgage-Backed Securities (CMBS) are obligations backed by pools of commercial mortgages. The collateral supporting CMBS include office, multifamily, retail, hotel, industrial and other specialized or mixed-use properties.

Financial Products Business is how the Company refers to the guaranteed investment contracts (GICs) portion of a line of business previously conducted by Assured Guaranty Municipal Holdings Inc. (AGMH) that the Company did not acquire when it purchased AGMH in 2009 from Dexia SA and that is being run off. That line of business was comprised of AGMH's GICs business, its medium term notes business and the equity payment agreements associated with AGMH's leveraged lease business. Assured Guaranty is indemnified by Dexia SA and certain of its affiliates against loss from the former Financial Products Business.


40



Glossary (continued)

Sectors (continued)

Consumer Receivables Securities are obligations backed by non-mortgage consumer receivables, such as student loans, automobile loans and leases, manufactured home loans and other consumer receivables.

Commercial Receivables Securities are obligations backed by equipment loans or leases, aircraft and aircraft engine financings, business loans and trade receivables. Credit support is derived from the cash flows generated by the underlying obligations, as well as property or equipment values as applicable.

Insurance Securitization Obligations are obligations secured by the future earnings from pools of various types of insurance/reinsurance policies and income produced by invested assets.

Other Structured Finance Obligations are obligations backed by assets not generally described in any of the other described categories. One such type of asset is a tax benefit to be realized by an investor in one of the Federal or state programs that permit such investor to receive a credit against taxes (such as Federal corporate income tax or state insurance premium tax) for making qualified investments in specified enterprises, typically located in designated low-income areas.

41



Non-GAAP Financial Measures
 
The Company discloses both financial measures determined in accordance with accounting principles generally accepted in the United States of America (GAAP) and financial measures not determined in accordance with GAAP (non-GAAP financial measures).

Financial measures identified as non-GAAP should not be considered substitutes for GAAP financial measures. The primary limitation of non-GAAP financial measures is the potential lack of comparability to financial measures of other companies, which may define non-GAAP financial measures differently than Assured Guaranty.
 
Management and the Board of Directors use non-GAAP financial measures, as well as GAAP financial measures and other factors, to evaluate the Company’s results of operations, financial condition and progress towards long-term goals. By disclosing non-GAAP financial measures, the Company gives investors, analysts and financial news reporters access to some of the same information that management and the Board of Directors review internally. Assured Guaranty believes its presentation of non-GAAP financial measures is consistent with how analysts calculate their estimates of Assured Guaranty’s financial results in their research reports on Assured Guaranty and with how investors, analysts and the financial news media evaluate Assured Guaranty’s financial results.

Many investors, analysts and financial news reporters use operating shareholders’ equity as the principal financial measure for valuing AGL’s current share price or projected share price and also as the basis of their decision to recommend, buy or sell AGL’s common shares. Many of the Company’s fixed income investors also use operating shareholders’ equity to evaluate the Company’s capital adequacy. Many investors, analysts and financial news reporters also use adjusted book value to evaluate AGL’s share price and as the basis of their decision to recommend, buy or sell the AGL common shares. Operating income enables investors and analysts to evaluate the Company’s financial results as compared with the consensus analyst estimates distributed publicly by financial databases. Two non-GAAP financial measures, growth in adjusted book value per share and operating income, are key measures used to help determine compensation.

The following paragraphs define each non-GAAP financial measure disclosed by the Company and describe why it is useful. A reconciliation of the non-GAAP financial measure and the most directly comparable GAAP financial measure is presented within this financial supplement.

Operating Income: Management believes that operating income is a useful measure because it presents the results of operations of the Company with all financial guaranty contracts accounted for on a consistent basis and excludes fair value adjustments that are not expected to result in economic gain or loss, which clarifies the understanding of the underwriting results and financial condition of the Company. Operating income is defined as net income (loss) attributable to AGL, as reported under GAAP, adjusted for the following:

1)    Elimination of realized gains (losses) on the Company’s investments, except for gains and losses on securities classified as trading. The timing of realized gains and losses, which depends largely on market credit cycles, can vary considerably across periods. The timing of sales is largely subject to the Company’s discretion and influenced by market opportunities, as well as the Company’s tax and capital profile.

2)    Elimination of non-credit-impairment unrealized fair value gains (losses) on credit derivatives, which is the amount in excess of the present value of the expected estimated economic credit losses, and non-economic payments. Such fair value adjustments are heavily affected by, and in part fluctuate with, changes in market interest rates, credit spreads and other market factors and are not expected to result in an economic gain or loss. Additionally, this adjustment presents all financial guaranty contracts on a more consistent basis of accounting, whether or not they are subject to derivative accounting rules.
 
3)    Elimination of fair value gains (losses) on the Company’s CCS. Such amounts are heavily affected by, and in part fluctuate with, changes in market interest rates, credit spreads and other market factors and are not expected to result in an economic gain or loss.
 
4)    Elimination of foreign exchange gains (losses) on remeasurement of net premium receivables and loss and LAE reserves. Long-dated receivables and loss and LAE reserves represent the present value of future contractual or expected cash flows. Therefore, the current period’s foreign exchange remeasurement gains (losses) are not necessarily indicative of the total foreign exchange gains (losses) that the Company will ultimately recognize.
 
5)    Elimination of the effects of consolidating FG VIEs. GAAP requires the Company to consolidate certain VIEs that have issued debt obligations insured by the Company even though the Company does not own such VIEs. This adjustment presents all financial guaranty contracts on a more consistent basis of accounting, whether or not GAAP requires consolidation.

6) Elimination of the tax effects related to the above adjustments, which are determined by applying the statutory tax rate in each of the jurisdictions that generate these adjustments.

Operating Shareholders’ Equity: Management believes that operating shareholders’ equity is a useful measure because it presents the equity of the Company with all financial guaranty contracts accounted for on a consistent basis and excludes fair value adjustments that are not expected to result in economic gain or loss, which clarifies the understanding of the underwriting results and financial condition of the Company. Operating shareholders’ equity is the basis of the calculation of adjusted book value (see below). Operating shareholders’ equity is defined as shareholders’ equity attributable to AGL, as reported under GAAP, adjusted for the following:

42



Non-GAAP Financial Measures (continued)

Operating Shareholders’ Equity (continued):
1)    Elimination of the effects of consolidating FG VIEs in order to present all financial guaranty contracts on a more consistent basis of accounting, whether or not GAAP requires consolidation. GAAP requires the Company to consolidate certain VIEs that have issued debt obligations insured by the Company even though the Company does not own such VIEs.
 
2)    Elimination of non-credit-impairment unrealized fair value gains (losses) on credit derivatives, which is the amount in excess of the present value of the expected estimated economic credit losses, and non-economic payments. Such fair value adjustments are heavily affected by, and in part fluctuate with, changes in market interest rates, credit spreads and other market factors and are not expected to result in an economic gain or loss.

3)    Elimination of fair value gains (losses) on the Company’s CCS. Such amounts are heavily affected by, and in part fluctuate with, changes in market interest rates, credit spreads and other market factors and are not expected to result in an economic gain or loss.
 
4)    Elimination of unrealized gains (losses) on the Company’s investments that are recorded as a component of accumulated other comprehensive income (AOCI) (excluding foreign exchange remeasurement). The AOCI component of the fair value adjustment on the investment portfolio is not deemed economic because the Company generally holds these investments to maturity and therefore should not recognize an economic gain or loss.

 5) Elimination of the tax asset or liability related to the above adjustments, which are determined by applying the statutory tax rate in each of the jurisdictions that generate these adjustments.

Adjusted Book Value: Management uses adjusted book value to measure the intrinsic value of the Company, excluding franchise value. Growth in adjusted book value per share is one of the key financial measures used in determining the amount of certain long term compensation to management and employees and used by rating agencies and investors. Management believes that adjusted book value is a useful measure because it enables an evaluation of the net present value of the Company’s in-force premiums and revenues net of expected losses. Adjusted book value is operating shareholders’ equity, as defined above, further adjusted for the following:

1)    Elimination of deferred acquisition costs, net. These amounts represent net deferred expenses that have already been paid or accrued and will be expensed in future accounting periods.

2)    Addition of the net present value of estimated net future credit derivative revenue. See below.
 
3)    Addition of the deferred premium revenue on financial guaranty contracts in excess of expected loss to be expensed, net of reinsurance. This amount represents the expected future net earned premiums, net of expected losses to be expensed, which are not reflected in GAAP equity.

4) Elimination of the tax asset or liability related to the above adjustments, which are determined by applying the statutory tax rate in each of the jurisdictions that generate these adjustments.

The premiums and revenues included in adjusted book value will be earned in future periods, but actual earnings may differ materially from the estimated amounts used in determining current adjusted book value due to changes in foreign exchange rates, prepayment speeds, terminations, credit defaults and other factors.

Operating Return on Equity (Operating ROE): Operating ROE represents operating income for a specified period divided by the average of operating shareholders’ equity at the beginning and the end of that period. Management believes that operating ROE is a useful measure to evaluate the Company’s return on invested capital. Many investors, analysts and members of the financial news media use operating ROE to evaluate AGL’s share price and as the basis of their decision to recommend, buy or sell the AGL common shares. Quarterly and year-to-date operating ROE are calculated on an annualized basis. Operating ROE is one of the key financial measures used in determining the amount of certain long-term compensation to management and employees and used by rating agencies and investors.

Net Present Value of Estimated Net Future Credit Derivative Revenue: Management believes that this amount is a useful measure because it enables an evaluation of the value of future estimated credit derivative revenue. There is no corresponding GAAP financial measure. This amount represents the present value of estimated future revenue from the Company’s credit derivative in-force book of business, net of reinsurance, ceding commissions and premium taxes, for contracts without expected economic losses, and is discounted at 6%. Estimated net future credit derivative revenue may change from period to period due to changes in foreign exchange rates, prepayment speeds, terminations, credit defaults or other factors that affect par outstanding or the ultimate maturity of an obligation.


43



Non-GAAP Financial Measures (continued)

PVP or Present Value of New Business Production: Management believes that PVP is a useful measure because it enables the evaluation of the value of new business production for the Company by taking into account the value of estimated future installment premiums on all new contracts underwritten in a reporting period as well as premium supplements and additional installment premium on existing contracts as to which the issuer has the right to call the insured obligation but has not exercised such right, whether in insurance or credit derivative contract form, which GAAP gross written premiums and the net credit derivative premiums received and receivable portion of net realized gains and other settlements on credit derivatives (Credit Derivative Revenues) do not adequately measure. PVP in respect of financial guaranty contracts written in a specified period is defined as gross upfront and installment premiums received and the present value of gross estimated future installment premiums, in each case, discounted at 6%. For purposes of the PVP calculation, management discounts estimated future installment premiums on insurance contracts at 6%, while under GAAP, these amounts are discounted at a risk free rate. Additionally, under GAAP, management records future installment premiums on financial guaranty insurance contracts covering non-homogeneous pools of assets based on the contractual term of the transaction, whereas for PVP purposes, management records an estimate of the future installment premiums the Company expects to receive, which may be based upon a shorter period of time than the contractual term of the transaction. Actual future net earned or written premiums and Credit Derivative Revenues may differ from PVP due to factors including, but not limited to, changes in foreign exchange rates, prepayment speeds, terminations, credit defaults, or other factors that affect par outstanding or the ultimate maturity of an obligation. 


44








Assured Guaranty Ltd.                        
30 Woodbourne Avenue
Hamilton HM 08
Bermuda
(441) 279-5705
www.assuredguaranty.com


 



Contacts:

Equity and Fixed Income Investors:
Robert Tucker
Senior Managing Director, Investor Relations and Corporate Communications
(212) 339-0861
rtucker@assuredguaranty.com

Michael Walker
Managing Director, Fixed Income Investor Relations
(212) 261-5575
mwalker@assuredguaranty.com

Andre Thomas
Managing Director, Equity Investor Relations
(212) 339-3551
athomas@assuredguaranty.com

Media:
Ashweeta Durani
Vice President, Corporate Communications
(212) 408-6042
adurani@assuredguaranty.com















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