0001273813-15-000033.txt : 20150806 0001273813-15-000033.hdr.sgml : 20150806 20150805184816 ACCESSION NUMBER: 0001273813-15-000033 CONFORMED SUBMISSION TYPE: 8-K PUBLIC DOCUMENT COUNT: 4 CONFORMED PERIOD OF REPORT: 20150805 ITEM INFORMATION: Results of Operations and Financial Condition ITEM INFORMATION: Financial Statements and Exhibits FILED AS OF DATE: 20150806 DATE AS OF CHANGE: 20150805 FILER: COMPANY DATA: COMPANY CONFORMED NAME: ASSURED GUARANTY LTD CENTRAL INDEX KEY: 0001273813 STANDARD INDUSTRIAL CLASSIFICATION: SURETY INSURANCE [6351] IRS NUMBER: 000000000 STATE OF INCORPORATION: D0 FISCAL YEAR END: 1231 FILING VALUES: FORM TYPE: 8-K SEC ACT: 1934 Act SEC FILE NUMBER: 001-32141 FILM NUMBER: 151030495 BUSINESS ADDRESS: STREET 1: 30 WOOD BOURNE AVE CITY: HAMILTON BERMUDA STATE: D0 ZIP: 0000 BUSINESS PHONE: 441-279-5700 MAIL ADDRESS: STREET 1: 30 WOOD BOURNE AVE CITY: HAMILTON BERMUDA STATE: D0 ZIP: 0000 FORMER COMPANY: FORMER CONFORMED NAME: AGR LTD DATE OF NAME CHANGE: 20040122 FORMER COMPANY: FORMER CONFORMED NAME: AGC HOLDINGS LTD DATE OF NAME CHANGE: 20031218 8-K 1 a8-k2q2015agl.htm 8-K 8-K 2Q 2015 AGL




UNITED STATES
SECURITIES AND EXCHANGE COMMISSION
Washington, D.C. 20549

FORM 8-K
Current Report
Pursuant to Section 13 or 15 (d) of the
Securities Exchange Act of 1934
Date of Report (Date of earliest event reported) — August 5, 2015

ASSURED GUARANTY LTD.
(Exact name of registrant as specified in its charter)


 
 
 
 
 
Bermuda
 
001-32141
 
98-0429991
(State or other jurisdiction of incorporation or organization)
 
(Commission File Number)
 
(I.R.S. Employer Identification No.)

Assured Guaranty Ltd.
30 Woodbourne Avenue
Hamilton HM 08 Bermuda
(Address of principal executive offices)
 
Registrant’s telephone number, including area code: (441) 279-5700
Not applicable
(Former name or former address, if changed since last report)
Check the appropriate box below if the Form 8-K filing is intended to simultaneously satisfy the filing obligation of the registrant under any of the following provisions (see General Instruction A.2. below):

o Written communications pursuant to Rule 425 under the Securities Act (17 CFR 230.425)
o Soliciting material pursuant to Rule 14a-12 under the Exchange Act (17 CFR 240.14a-12)
o Pre-commencement communications pursuant to Rule 14d-2(b) under the Exchange Act (17 CFR 240.14d‑2(b))
o Pre-commencement communications pursuant to Rule 13e-4(c) under the Exchange Act (17 CFR 240.13e‑4(c))



1




Item 2.02
Results of Operations and Financial Condition

On August 5, 2015, Assured Guaranty Ltd. issued a press release reporting its second quarter 2015 results and the availability of its June 30, 2015 financial supplement. The press release and the financial supplement are attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1 and Exhibit 99.2, respectively, and are incorporated by reference herein.



Item 9.01
Financial Statements and Exhibits.
(d) Exhibits
Exhibit
Number
Description
99.1
Assured Guaranty Ltd. Press Release dated August 5, 2015 reporting second quarter 2015 results

99.2
June 30, 2015 Financial Supplement of Assured Guaranty Ltd.



2



SIGNATURES
Pursuant to the requirements of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, the Registrant has duly caused this report to be signed on its behalf by the undersigned thereunto duly authorized.

ASSURED GUARANTY LTD.



By:    /s/ Robert A. Bailenson            
Name: Robert A. Bailenson
Title: Chief Financial Officer

DATE: August 5, 2015

3



EXHIBIT INDEX



Exhibit
Number
Description
99.1
Assured Guaranty Ltd. Press Release dated August 5, 2015 reporting second quarter 2015 results

99.2
June 30, 2015 Financial Supplement of Assured Guaranty Ltd.




4
EX-99.1 2 agl2q15pressrelease.htm PRESS RELEASE AGL 2Q'15 Press Release


Assured Guaranty Ltd. Reports Results for Second Quarter 2015

Net income was $297 million, or $1.96 per share, for second quarter 2015, compared with $159 million, or $0.89 per share, for second quarter 2014. Net income was $498 million, or $3.23 per share, for six months 2015, compared with $201 million, or $1.11 per share, for six months 2014.

Operating income1 was $278 million, or $1.83 per share, for second quarter 2015, compared with $101 million, or $0.56 per share, for second quarter 2014. Operating income was $418 million, or $2.71 per share for six months 2015, compared with $233 million, or $1.28 per share, for six months 2014.

Acquisition of Radian Asset for $804.5 million resulted in an after-tax bargain purchase gain plus settlement of pre-existing relationships totaling $193 million, or $1.27 per share, which contributed to a record high quarterly operating income, and increased adjusted book value at the acquisition date by $570 million, or $3.73 per share.

Second quarter 2015 share repurchases totaled $133 million, or 4.7 million shares.

Hamilton, Bermuda, August 5, 2015 -- Assured Guaranty Ltd. (NYSE: AGO) (AGL and, together with its consolidated entities, Assured Guaranty or the Company) announced today its financial results for the three-month period ended June 30, 2015 (second quarter 2015).

Summary Financial Results
(in millions, except per share amounts)
 
Quarter Ended
 
June 30,
 
2015
 
2014
Net income
$
297

 
$
159

Operating income1
278

 
101

 
 
 
 
Net income per diluted share
1.96

 
0.89

Operating income1 per diluted share
1.83

 
0.56

 
 
 
 
Diluted shares2
151.6

 
179.5

 
 
 
 
PVP1
$
26

 
$
27

Gross par written
5,581

 
2,658



1 Please see “Non-GAAP Financial Measures” at the end of this press release.
2 Diluted shares for generally accepted accounting principles (GAAP) net income and non-GAAP operating income were the same.

1


Summary Financial Results (continued)
(in millions, except per share amounts)
 
As of
 
June 30, 2015
 
December 31, 2014
 
Amount
 
Per Share
 
Amount
 
Per Share
Shareholders' equity
$
5,806

 
$
39.16

 
$
5,758

 
$
36.37

Operating shareholders' equity1
6,011

 
40.55

 
5,933

 
37.48

Adjusted book value1
8,701

 
58.69

 
8,495

 
53.66

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Common shares outstanding
148.3

 
 
 
158.3

 
 
________________________________________________
(1)
Please see “Non-GAAP Financial Measures” at the end of this press release.

“Assured Guaranty produced excellent results in the second quarter,” said Dominic Frederico, President
and CEO. “Operating income reached a record $278 million, with the closing of our Radian Asset acquisition providing a significant benefit. We also further strengthened our balance sheet, and we continue to be the industry leader, insuring nearly two-thirds of the U.S. municipal insured par sold during the quarter. Lastly, on June 29, S&P affirmed our AA stable financial strength ratings in its annual review of the company, and we estimate that at December 31, 2014 we had $1.9 billion of excess capital above their AAA requirement.”

Second Quarter Results

GAAP Financial Information

Net income for second quarter 2015 was $297 million, compared with net income of $159 million for the three-month period ended June 30, 2014 (second quarter 2014). The increase in pre-tax income was primarily attributable to (i) the acquisition of Radian Asset, which resulted in a bargain purchase gain of $55 million and a gain on settlement of pre-existing reinsurance relationships of $159 million, (ii) an $83 million increase in net earned premiums, and (iii) gains on commutations of previously ceded business of $33 million in second quarter 2015. The Company also recorded higher loss and loss adjustment expenses (LAE) of $131 million. Second quarter 2015 net income includes $12 million of operating expenses related to the Radian Asset acquisition.






2


Consolidated Statements of Operations (unaudited)
(in millions)
 
Quarter Ended
 
June 30,
 
2015
 
2014
Revenues:
 
 
 
Net earned premiums
$
219

 
$
136

Net investment income
98

 
96

Net realized investment gains (losses)
(9
)
 
(8
)
Net change in fair value of credit derivatives:
 
 
 
Realized gains (losses) and other settlements
8

 
15

Net unrealized gains (losses)
82

 
88

Net change in fair value of credit derivatives
90

 
103

Fair value gains (losses) on committed capital securities (CCS)
23

 
(6
)
Fair value gains (losses) on FG VIEs
5

 
25

Bargain purchase gain and settlement of pre-existing relationships
214

 

Other income (loss)
55

 
7

Total revenues
695

 
353

 
 
 
 
Expenses:
 
 
 
Loss and LAE
188

 
57

Amortization of deferred acquisition costs
6

 
3

Interest expense
26

 
20

Other operating expenses
66

 
55

Total expenses
286

 
135

 
 
 
 
Income (loss) before income taxes
409

 
218

Provision (benefit) for income taxes
112

 
59

Net income (loss)
$
297

 
$
159


Economic Loss Development

Economic loss development in second quarter 2015 was $192 million, primarily related to Puerto Rico developments. Following the developments in Puerto Rico and the Governor's speech claiming that its public debt, considering the current level of economic activity, is unpayable, the Company internally downgraded all its Puerto Rico exposures. Increases in loss development during the quarter were offset by a $47 million benefit due to the increase in the risk-free rates used to discount expected losses.






3


Roll Forward of Net Expected Loss to be Paid (1)
(in millions)
 
 
Net Expected Loss to be Paid (Recovered) as
 
Expected Losses to be Paid (Recovered) on Radian Asset Portfolio
 
Economic Loss
 
Losses
 
 Net Expected Loss to be Paid (Recovered) as
 
 
of March 31,
2015
 
 as of April 1, 2015
 
Development/
(Benefit)
 
(Paid)/ Recovered
 
of June 30,
2015
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Public finance
 
$
352

 
$
85

 
$
224

 
$
(4
)
 
$
657

U.S. RMBS:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Before representations and warranties (R&W) benefit
 
815

 
6

 
(28
)
 
(44
)
 
749

R&W benefit
 
(245
)
 
(2
)
 
(4
)
 
26

 
(225
)
U.S. RMBS
 
570

 
4

 
(32
)
 
(18
)
 
524

Other structured finance
 
232

 
101

 
0

 
(4
)
 
329

Total
 
$
1,154

 
$
190

 
$
192

 
$
(26
)
 
$
1,510

________________________________________________
(1)
Economic loss development represents the change in net expected loss to be paid attributable to the effects of changes in assumptions based on observed market trends, changes in discount rates, accretion of discount and the economic effects of loss mitigation efforts. Economic loss development is the principal measure that the Company uses to evaluate the loss experience in its insured portfolio. Expected loss to be paid includes all transactions insured by the Company, whether written in insurance or credit derivative form, regardless of the accounting model prescribed under GAAP.

New Business Production

New Business Production
(in millions)
 
Quarter Ended June 30,
 
2015
 
2014
 
PVP(1)
 
Gross Par Written
 
PVP(1)
 
Gross Par Written
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Public finance - U.S.
$
25

 
$
5,581

 
$
16

 
$
2,453

Public finance - non - U.S.

 

 

 

Structured finance - U.S.
1

 

 
6

 
5

Structured finance - non-U.S.

 

 
5

 
200

Total
$
26

 
$
5,581

 
$
27

 
$
2,658

________________________________________________
(1)
Please see “Non-GAAP Financial Measures” at the end of this press release.

In the U.S. public finance sector, the Company's PVP, par written and number of issues insured increased in second quarter 2015 compared with second quarter 2014 due to increased market issuance, higher interest rates with intermittently wider credit spreads, and increased demand for bond insurance. During second quarter 2015, Assured Guaranty once again wrote the majority of insured par. The average rating of par written in second quarter 2015 was A-, consistent with second quarter 2014.


4



Municipal market issuance was $111 billion in second quarter 2015, compared with $83 billion in second quarter 2014, representing a 34% increase, and industry-wide insured penetration (based on par) increased to 7.5%, compared with 5.5% in second quarter 2014.


Other Non-GAAP Financial Measures

Operating income was $278 million in second quarter 2015, compared with operating income of $101 million in second quarter 2014. The increase in pre-tax operating income was due primarily to (i) the acquisition of Radian Asset, which resulted in a bargain purchase gain of $90 million (operating basis) and gains on settlements of pre-existing relationships of $159 million, (ii) commutation gains in second quarter 2015 and (iii) higher net earned premiums. The Company also recorded higher loss expense of $134 million due primarily to developments in Puerto Rico in second quarter 2015. Second quarter operating income includes $12 million in operating expenses related to the Radian Asset acquisition. Bargain purchase gain and loss expense amounts that are included in operating income differ from amounts reported in GAAP net income due to the elimination of the effects of non-economic fair value adjustments on credit derivatives, and the elimination of the effects of consolidating FG VIEs. See "Explanation of Non-GAAP Financial Measures" below.

Total net earned premiums and credit derivative revenues in second quarter 2015 were $259 million, compared with $162 million in second quarter 2014. Accelerations of premium and credit derivative revenues were $98 million in second quarter 2015, which included $28 million from the Radian Asset portfolio, compared with $25 million in second quarter 2014. Second quarter 2015 scheduled premium and credit derivative revenues also increased due primarily to the Radian Asset acquisition. On an operating income basis, credit derivative contracts are accounted for as insurance.

Operating shareholders' equity and adjusted book value increased in second quarter 2015 primarily due to the Radian Asset acquisition, which contributed $193 million to operating shareholders' equity, and $570 million to adjusted book value on April 1, 2015, the acquisition date. The increase in qualified statutory capital (which is policyholders' surplus plus contingency reserves determined in accordance with accounting practices prescribed or permitted by the New York State Department of Financial Services and the Maryland Insurance Administration) associated with Radian Asset was $494 million on the acquisition date.



5


Common Share Repurchases

As of August 5, 2015, the Company's remaining share repurchase authorization was $280 million.

Summary of Share Repurchases
 
Amount
 
Number of Shares
 
Average price per share
 
(in millions, except per share data)
 
 
 
 
 
 
2013
$
264

 
12.5

 
$
21.12

2014
590

 
24.4

 
24.17

Six months 2015
285

 
10.6

 
26.88

Cumulative as of June 30, 2015
1,139

 
47.5

 
23.97

Third quarter through August 5, 2015
45

 
1.8

 
24.76


As in the past, the Company's execution of its capital management strategy is contingent upon its available free cash and the capital position of the parent company, market conditions, the maintenance of its strong financial strength ratings and other factors. The repurchase program may be modified, extended or terminated by the board of directors at any time. It does not have an expiration date.


6


Consolidated Balance Sheets (unaudited)
(in millions)
 
As of
 
June 30, 2015
 
December 31, 2014
Assets
 
 
 
Investment portfolio:
 
 
 
Fixed maturity securities, available-for-sale, at fair value
$
10,582

 
$
10,491

Short-term investments, at fair value
834

 
767

Other invested assets
215

 
126

Total investment portfolio
11,631

 
11,384

 
 
 
 
Cash
75

 
75

Premiums receivable, net of commissions payable
703

 
729

Ceded unearned premium reserve
282

 
381

Deferred acquisition costs
119

 
121

Reinsurance recoverable on unpaid losses
77

 
78

Salvage and subrogation recoverable
139

 
151

Credit derivative assets
81

 
68

Deferred tax asset, net
439

 
260

Current income tax receivable
11

 

FG VIE assets, at fair value
1,601

 
1,402

Other assets
321

 
276

Total assets
$
15,479

 
$
14,925

 
 
 
 
Liabilities and shareholders' equity
 
 
 
Liabilities
 
 
 
Unearned premium reserve
$
4,389

 
$
4,261

Loss and LAE reserve
996

 
799

Reinsurance balances payable, net
66

 
107

Long-term debt
1,305

 
1,303

Credit derivative liabilities
1,007

 
963

Current income tax payable

 
5

FG VIE liabilities with recourse, at fair value
1,361

 
1,277

FG VIE liabilities without recourse, at fair value
171

 
142

Other liabilities
378

 
310

Total liabilities
9,673

 
9,167

 
 
 
 
Shareholders' equity
 
 
 
Common stock
1

 
2

Additional paid-in capital
1,606

 
1,887

Retained earnings
3,955

 
3,494

Accumulated other comprehensive income
239

 
370

Deferred equity compensation
5

 
5

Total shareholders' equity
5,806

 
5,758

Total liabilities and shareholders' equity
$
15,479

 
$
14,925



7



Explanation of Non-GAAP Financial Measures

The Company references financial measures that are not in accordance with GAAP. Management and the board of directors utilize non-GAAP financial measures in evaluating the Company's financial performance. By providing these non-GAAP financial measures, the Company gives investors, analysts and financial news reporters access to the same information that management reviews internally. In addition, Assured Guaranty's presentation of non-GAAP financial measures is consistent with how analysts calculate their estimates of Assured Guaranty's financial results in their research reports on Assured Guaranty and with how investors, analysts and the financial news media evaluate Assured Guaranty's financial results.

The following paragraphs and tables define each non-GAAP financial measure, describe why it is useful and provides reconciliations to the most comparable GAAP financial measure. Non-GAAP financial measures should not be viewed as substitutes for their most directly comparable GAAP measures.

Operating Income

Management believes that operating income is a useful measure because it clarifies the understanding of the underwriting results of the Company's financial guaranty business, and also includes financing costs and net investment income, and enables investors and analysts to evaluate the Company's financial results as compared with the consensus analyst estimates distributed publicly by financial databases. Operating income is defined as net income (loss) attributable to AGL, as reported under GAAP, adjusted for the following:

1)
Elimination of the after-tax realized gains (losses) on the Company's investments, except for gains and losses on securities classified as trading. The timing of realized gains and losses, which depends largely on market credit cycles, can vary considerably across periods. The timing of sales is largely subject to the Company's discretion and influenced by market opportunities, as well as the Company's tax and capital profile. Trends in the underlying profitability of the Company's business can be more clearly identified without the fluctuating effects of these transactions.

2)
Elimination of the after-tax non-credit-impairment unrealized fair value gains (losses) on credit derivatives, which is the amount in excess of the present value of the expected estimated economic credit losses and non-economic payments. Such fair value adjustments are heavily affected by, and in part fluctuate with, changes in market interest rates, credit spreads and other market factors and are not expected to result in an economic gain or loss. Additionally, such adjustments present all financial guaranty contracts on a more consistent basis of accounting, whether or not they are subject to derivative accounting rules.

3)
Elimination of the after-tax fair value gains (losses) on the Company's CCS. Such amounts are heavily affected by, and in part fluctuate with, changes in market interest rates, credit spreads and other market factors and are not expected to result in an economic gain or loss.

4)
Elimination of the after-tax foreign exchange gains (losses) on remeasurement of net premium receivables and loss and LAE reserves. Long-dated receivables constitute a significant portion of the net premium receivable balance and represent the present value of future contractual or expected collections. Therefore, the current period's foreign exchange remeasurement gains (losses) are not


8


necessarily indicative of the total foreign exchange gains (losses) that the Company will ultimately recognize.

5)
Elimination of the effects of consolidating FG VIEs in order to present all financial guaranty contracts on a more consistent basis of accounting, whether or not GAAP requires consolidation. GAAP requires the Company to consolidate certain VIEs that have issued debt obligations insured by the Company even though the Company does not own such VIEs.

Summary Reconciliation of
GAAP Net Income to Non-GAAP Operating Income (1)
(in millions)
 
Quarter Ended
 
June 30,
 
2015
 
2014
Net income (loss)
$
297

 
$
159

Less after-tax adjustments:
 
 
 
Realized gains (losses) on investments
(8
)
 
(2
)
Non-credit impairment unrealized fair value gains (losses) on credit derivatives
0

 
47

Fair value gains (losses) on CCS
15

 
(5
)
Foreign exchange gains (losses) on remeasurement of premiums receivable and loss and LAE reserves
9

 
5

Effect of consolidating FG VIEs
3

 
13

Operating income
$
278

 
$
101

________________________________________________
(1)
The non-GAAP measures presented in the table above should not be considered a substitute for financial results and measures determined or calculated in accordance with GAAP.


9


Detailed Reconciliation of GAAP Net Income
to Non-GAAP Operating Income (1)
(in millions, except per share amounts)
 
Quarter Ended June 30, 2015
 
Quarter Ended June 30, 2014
 
GAAP Income Statement Line Items As Reported
 
Less: Operating Income Adjustments
 
Non-GAAP Operating Income Components
 
GAAP Income Statement Line Items As Reported
 
Less: Operating Income Adjustments
 
Non-GAAP Operating Income Components
Revenues:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net earned premiums
$
219

 
$
(5
)
 
$
224

 
$
136

 
$
(5
)
 
$
141

Net investment income
98

 
(1
)
 
99

 
96

 
(1
)
 
97

Net realized investment gains (losses)
(9
)
 
(9
)
 
0

 
(8
)
 
(8
)
 
0

Net change in fair value of credit derivatives:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Realized gains (losses) and other settlements
8

 
8

 

 
15

 
15

 

Net unrealized gains (losses)
82

 
82

 

 
88

 
88

 

Credit derivative revenues

 
(35
)
 
35

 

 
(21
)
 
21

Net change in fair value of credit derivatives
90

 
55

 
35

 
103

 
82

 
21

Fair value gains (losses) on CCS
23

 
23

 

 
(6
)
 
(6
)
 

Fair value gains (losses) on FG VIEs
5

 
5

 

 
25

 
25

 

Bargain purchase gain and settlement of pre-existing relationships
214

 
(35
)
 
249

 

 

 

Other income (loss)
55

 
13

 
42

 
7

 
6

 
1

Total revenues
695

 
46

 
649

 
353

 
93

 
260

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Expenses:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Loss expense:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Financial guaranty insurance
188

 
(1
)
 
189

 
57

 
(7
)
 
64

Credit derivatives

 
9

 
(9
)
 

 
18

 
(18
)
Amortization of deferred acquisition costs
6

 

 
6

 
3

 

 
3

Interest expense
26

 

 
26

 
20

 

 
20

Other operating expenses
66

 
1

 
65

 
55

 

 
55

Total expenses
286

 
9

 
277

 
135

 
11

 
124

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Income (loss) before income taxes
409

 
37

 
372

 
218

 
82

 
136

Provision (benefit) for income taxes
112

 
18

 
94

 
59

 
24

 
35

Income (loss)
$
297

 
$
19

 
$
278

 
$
159

 
$
58

 
$
101

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Diluted shares
151.6

 
 
 
151.6

 
179.5

 
 
 
179.5

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Earnings per share, diluted
$
1.96

 
 
 
$
1.83

 
$
0.89

 
 
 
$
0.56

________________________________________________
(1) The non-GAAP measures presented in the table above should not be considered a substitute for financial results and measures determined or calculated in accordance with GAAP.



10


Non-GAAP Loss Expense

Loss Expense Included in
Non-GAAP Operating Income
(in millions)
 
Quarter Ended June 30,
 
2015
 
2014
 
 
 
 
GAAP losses
$
188

 
$
57

Loss and LAE (FG VIEs)(1)
1

 
7

Losses incurred (benefit) on credit derivatives (2)
(9
)
 
(18
)
Loss expense (benefit) included in non-GAAP operating income
$
180

 
$
46

________________________________________________
(1)
Represents loss and LAE that is eliminated for GAAP upon consolidation.
(2)
Represents a benefit on credit derivatives under a present value, probability-weighted insurance accounting model.


Adjusted Book Value and Operating Shareholders’ Equity
 
Management also uses adjusted book value to measure the intrinsic value of the Company, excluding franchise value. Growth in adjusted book value per share is one of the key financial measures used in determining the amount of certain long-term compensation to management and employees and used by rating agencies and investors.

Management believes that operating shareholders' equity is a useful measure because it presents the equity of Assured Guaranty Ltd. with all financial guaranty contracts accounted for on a more consistent basis and excludes fair value adjustments that are not expected to result in economic gain or loss. Many investors, analysts and financial news reporters use operating shareholders' equity as the principal financial measure for valuing Assured Guaranty Ltd.'s current share price or projected share price and also as the basis of their decision to recommend, buy or sell Assured Guaranty Ltd.'s common shares. Many of the Company's fixed income investors also use operating shareholders' equity to evaluate the Company's capital adequacy. Operating shareholders' equity is the basis of the calculation of adjusted book value (see below). Operating shareholders' equity is defined as shareholders' equity attributable to AGL, as reported under GAAP, adjusted for the following:  

1)
Elimination of the effects of consolidating FG VIEs in order to present all financial guaranty contracts on a more consistent basis of accounting, whether or not GAAP requires consolidation. GAAP requires the Company to consolidate certain VIEs that have issued debt obligations insured by the Company even though the Company does not own such VIEs.

2)
Elimination of the after-tax non-credit-impairment unrealized fair value gains (losses) on credit derivatives, which is the amount in excess of the present value of the expected estimated economic credit losses and non-economic payments. Such fair value adjustments are heavily affected by, and in part fluctuate with, changes in market interest rates, credit spreads and other market factors and are not expected to result in an economic gain or loss.



11


3)
Elimination of the after-tax fair value gains (losses) on the Company's CCS. Such amounts are heavily affected by, and in part fluctuate with, changes in market interest rates, credit spreads and other market factors and are not expected to result in an economic gain or loss.

4)
Elimination of the after-tax unrealized gains (losses) on the Company's investments that are recorded as a component of accumulated other comprehensive income (AOCI) (excluding foreign exchange remeasurement). The AOCI component of the fair value adjustment on the investment portfolio is not deemed economic because the Company generally holds these investments to maturity and therefore should not recognize an economic gain or loss.

Management believes that adjusted book value is a useful measure because it enables an evaluation of the net present value of the Company's in-force premiums and revenues in addition to operating shareholders' equity. The premiums and revenues included in adjusted book value will be earned in future periods, but actual earnings may differ materially from the estimated amounts used in determining current adjusted book value due to changes in foreign exchange rates, prepayment speeds, terminations, credit defaults and other factors. Many investors, analysts and financial news reporters use adjusted book value to evaluate Assured Guaranty Ltd.'s share price and as the basis of their decision to recommend, buy or sell the Assured Guaranty Ltd. common shares. Adjusted book value is operating shareholders' equity, as defined above, further adjusted for the following: 

1)
Elimination of after-tax deferred acquisition costs, net. These amounts represent net deferred expenses that have already been paid or accrued and will be expensed in future accounting periods.

2)
Addition of the after-tax net present value of estimated net future credit derivative revenue. See below.

3)
Addition of the after-tax value of the unearned premium reserve on financial guaranty contracts in excess of expected loss to be expensed, net of reinsurance. This amount represents the expected future net earned premiums, net of expected losses to be expensed, which are not reflected in GAAP equity.

Net Present Value of Estimated Net Future Credit Derivative Revenue

Management believes that this amount is a useful measure because it enables an evaluation of the value of future estimated credit derivative revenue. There is no corresponding GAAP financial measure. This amount represents the present value of estimated future revenue from the Company's credit derivative in-force book of business, net of reinsurance, ceding commissions and premium taxes, for contracts without expected economic losses, and is discounted at 6%. Estimated net future credit derivative revenue may change from period to period due to changes in foreign exchange rates, prepayment speeds, terminations, credit defaults or other factors that affect par outstanding or the ultimate maturity of an obligation.


12


Reconciliation of GAAP Shareholders' Equity to
Operating Shareholders' Equity (1) and Adjusted Book Value (1)
(in millions, except per share amounts)
 
As of
 
June 30, 2015
 
December 31, 2014
 
 
 
 
Shareholders' equity
$
5,806

 
$
5,758

Less after-tax adjustments:
 
 
 
Effect of consolidating FG VIEs
(40
)
 
(44
)
Non-credit impairment unrealized fair value gains (losses) on credit derivatives
(447
)
 
(527
)
Fair value gains (losses) on CCS
39

 
23

Unrealized gain (loss) on investment portfolio excluding foreign exchange effect
243

 
373

Operating shareholders' equity
6,011

 
5,933

After-tax adjustments:
 
 
 
Less: Deferred acquisition costs
150

 
156

Plus: Net present value of estimated net future credit derivative revenue
155

 
109

Plus: Net unearned premium reserve on financial guaranty contracts in excess of expected loss to be expensed
2,685

 
2,609

Adjusted book value
$
8,701

 
$
8,495

 
 
 
 
Shares outstanding at the end of the period
148.3

 
158.3

 
 
 
 
Per share:
 
 
 
Shareholders' equity
$
39.16

 
$
36.37

Operating shareholders' equity
40.55

 
37.48

Adjusted book value
58.69

 
53.66

________________________________________________
(1)
The non-GAAP measures presented in the table above should not be considered a substitute for financial results and measures determined or calculated in accordance with GAAP.


PVP or Present Value of New Business Production

Management believes that PVP is a useful measure because it enables the evaluation of the value of new business production for the Company by taking into account the value of estimated future installment premiums on all new contracts underwritten in a reporting period as well as premium supplements and additional installment premium on existing contracts as to which the issuer has the right to call the insured obligation but has not exercised such right,  whether in insurance or credit derivative contract form, which GAAP gross premiums written and the net credit derivative premiums received and receivable portion of net realized gains and other settlements on credit derivatives (Credit Derivative Revenues) do not adequately measure. PVP in respect of financial guaranty contracts written in a specified period is defined as gross upfront and installment premiums received and the present value of gross estimated future installment premiums, in each case, discounted at 6%. For purposes of the PVP calculation, management discounts estimated future installment premiums on insurance contracts at 6%, while under GAAP, these amounts are


13


discounted at a risk-free rate. Additionally, under GAAP, management records future installment premiums on financial guaranty insurance contracts covering non-homogeneous pools of assets based on the contractual term of the transaction, whereas for PVP purposes, management records an estimate of the future installment premiums the Company expects to receive, which may be based upon a shorter period of time than the contractual term of the transaction. Actual future net earned or written premiums and Credit Derivative Revenues may differ from PVP due to factors including, but not limited to, changes in foreign exchange rates, prepayment speeds, terminations, credit defaults, or other factors that affect par outstanding or the ultimate maturity of an obligation.

Reconciliation of PVP
to Gross Written Premiums (1)
(in millions)
 
Quarter Ended
 
June 30,
 
2015
 
2014
Total PVP
$
26

 
$
27

Less: Financial guaranty installment premium PVP
1

 
11

Total: Financial guaranty upfront gross written premiums
25

 
16

Plus: Installment gross written premiums and other GAAP adjustments(2)
(3
)
 
1

Total gross written premiums
$
22

 
$
17

________________________________________________
(1)
The non-GAAP measures presented in the table above should not be considered a substitute for financial results and measures determined or calculated in accordance with GAAP.
(2)
Includes present value of new business on installment policies, gross written premiums adjustment on existing installment policies due to changes in assumptions, any cancellations of assumed reinsurance contracts, and other GAAP adjustments.





14


Conference Call and Webcast Information

The Company will host a conference call for investors at 8:30 a.m. Eastern Time (9:30 a.m. Atlantic Time) on Thursday, August 6, 2015. The conference call will be available via live and archived webcast in the Investor Information section of the Company's website at AssuredGuaranty.com or by dialing 1-877-281-1545 (in the U.S.) or 1-412-902-6609 (International). A replay of the call will be made available through November 6, 2015. To listen to the replay, dial 1-877-344-7529 (in the U.S.) or 1-412-317-0088 (International), passcode 10070090. The replay will be available one hour after the conference call ends.

Please refer to Assured Guaranty's June 30, 2015 Financial Supplement, which is posted on the Company's website at assuredguaranty.com/investor-information/by-company/assured-guaranty-ltd, for more information on the Company's financial guaranty portfolios, investment portfolio and other items. The Company is also posting on the same page of its website:

“Public Finance Transactions in 2Q 2015,” which lists the U.S. public finance new issues insured by the Company in second quarter 2015, and

“Structured Finance Transactions at June 30, 2015,” which lists the Company's structured finance exposure as of that date.

In addition, the Company is posting at assuredguaranty.com/presentations the “June 30, 2015 Equity Investor Presentation.” Furthermore, the Company's separate-company subsidiary financial supplements and its Fixed Income Presentation for the current quarter will be posted on the Company's website when available. Those documents will be furnished to the Securities and Exchange Commission in a Current Report on Form 8-K.

# # #


Assured Guaranty Ltd. is a publicly traded (NYSE: AGO) Bermuda-based holding company. Its operating subsidiaries provide credit enhancement products to the U.S. and international public finance, infrastructure and structured finance markets. More information on Assured Guaranty Ltd. and its subsidiaries can be found at AssuredGuaranty.com.




15


Cautionary Statement Regarding Forward-Looking Statements

Any forward-looking statements made in this press release reflect the Company's current views with respect to future events and financial performance and are made pursuant to the safe harbor provisions of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Such statements involve risks and uncertainties that may cause actual results to differ materially from those set forth in these statements. For example, Assured Guaranty's calculations of adjusted book value, PVP, net present value of estimated future installment premiums in force and total estimated net future premium earnings and statements regarding its capital position and demand for its insurance and other forward-looking statements could be affected by rating agency action, including a ratings downgrade, a change in outlook, the placement of ratings on watch for downgrade, or a change in rating criteria, at any time, of AGL or any of its subsidiaries, and/or of any securities AGL or any of its subsidiaries have issued, and/or of transactions that AGL’s subsidiaries have insured; reduction in the amount of available insurance opportunities and/or in the demand for Assured Guaranty's insurance; developments in the world’s financial and capital markets that adversely affect obligors’ payment rates, Assured Guaranty’s loss experience, or its exposure to refinancing risk in transactions (which could result in substantial liquidity claims on its guarantees); the possibility that budget shortfalls or other factors will result in credit losses or impairments on obligations of state, territorial and local governments and their related authorities and public corporations that Assured Guaranty insures or reinsures; the failure of Assured Guaranty to realize loss recoveries that are assumed in its expected loss estimates; deterioration in the financial condition of Assured Guaranty’s reinsurers, the amount and timing of reinsurance recoverables actually received and the risk that reinsurers may dispute amounts owed to Assured Guaranty under its reinsurance agreements; increased competition, including from new entrants into the financial guaranty industry; rating agency action on obligors, including sovereign debtors, resulting in a reduction in the value of securities in Assured Guaranty's investment portfolio and in collateral posted by and to Assured Guaranty; the inability of Assured Guaranty to access external sources of capital on acceptable terms; changes in the world’s credit markets, segments thereof, interest rates or general economic conditions; the impact of market volatility on the mark-to-market of Assured Guaranty’s contracts written in credit default swap form; changes in applicable accounting policies or practices; changes in applicable laws or regulations, including insurance and tax laws, or other governmental actions; difficulties with the execution of Assured Guaranty’s business strategy; loss of key personnel; the effects of mergers, acquisitions and divestitures; natural or man-made catastrophes; other risks and uncertainties that have not been identified at this time; management’s response to these factors; and other risk factors identified in AGL’s filings with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. Readers are cautioned not to place undue reliance on these forward-looking statements. These forward-looking statements are made as of August 5, 2015, and Assured Guaranty undertakes no obligation to update publicly or review any forward-looking statement, whether as a result of new information, future developments or otherwise, except as required by law.



16


Contact Information

Robert Tucker
Managing Director, Investor Relations and Corporate Communications
212-339-0861
rtucker@assuredguaranty.com

Ashweeta Durani
Vice President, Corporate Communications
212-408-6042
adurani@assuredguaranty.com







17
EX-99.2 3 agl2q15supplement.htm AGL FINANCIAL SUPPLEMENT AGL 2Q'15 Supplement



Assured Guaranty Ltd.
June 30, 2015
Financial Supplement

Table of Contents
 
 
Page
 
Selected Financial Highlights
1
 
Consolidated Balance Sheets (unaudited)
2
 
Consolidated Statements of Operations (unaudited)
3
 
Net Income (Loss) Reconciliation to Operating Income
4
 
Adjusted Book Value
6
 
Claims-Paying Resources
7
 
New Business Production
8
 
Gross Par Written
9
 
New Business Production by Quarter
10
 
Available-for-Sale Investment Portfolio and Cash
11
 
Estimated Net Exposure Amortization and Estimated Future Net Premium and Credit Derivative Revenues
12
 
Expected Amortization of Net Par Outstanding
13
 
Present Value of Net Expected Loss to be Expensed
14
 
Financial Guaranty Profile
15
 
Exposure to Puerto Rico
19
 
Direct Pooled Corporate Obligations Profile
22
 
U.S. RMBS Profile
23
 
Direct U.S. Commercial Real Estate Profile
24
 
Below Investment Grade Exposures
25
 
Largest Exposures by Sector
30
 
Rollforward of Net Expected Loss and Loss Adjustment Expenses to be Paid
34
 
Financial Guaranty Insurance and Credit Derivative U.S. RMBS Representations and Warranties Benefit Development
35
 
Losses Incurred
36
 
Summary Financial and Statistical Data
37
 
Glossary
38
 
Non-GAAP Financial Measures
41

This financial supplement should be read in conjunction with documents filed by Assured Guaranty Ltd. (‘‘AGL’’ and, together with its subsidiaries, ‘‘Assured Guaranty’’ or the ‘‘Company’’) with the Securities and Exchange Commission ("SEC"), including its Annual Report on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2014 and its Quarterly Report on Form 10-Q for the quarterly periods ended March 31, 2015 and June 30, 2015.

Some amounts in this financial supplement may not add due to rounding.

Cautionary Statement Regarding Forward Looking Statements:

Any forward looking statements made in this supplement reflect the current views of Assured Guaranty with respect to future events and financial performance and are made pursuant to the safe harbor provisions of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Such statements involve risks and uncertainties that may cause actual results to differ materially from those set forth in these statements. Assured Guaranty's forward looking statements could be affected by many events. These events include (1) rating agency action, including a ratings downgrade, a change in outlook, the placement of ratings on watch for downgrade, or a change in rating criteria, at any time, of AGL or any of its subsidiaries, and/or of any securities AGL or any of its subsidiaries have issued, and/or of transactions that AGL’s subsidiaries have insured; (2) reduction in the amount of available insurance opportunities and/or in the demand for Assured Guaranty's insurance; (3) developments in the world’s financial and capital markets that adversely affect obligors’ payment rates, Assured Guaranty’s loss experience, or its exposure to refinancing risk in transactions (which could result in substantial liquidity claims on its guarantees); (4) the possibility that budget shortfalls or other factors will result in credit losses or impairments on obligations of state, territorial and local governments and their related authorities and public corporations that Assured Guaranty insures or reinsures; (5) the failure of Assured Guaranty to realize loss recoveries that are assumed in its expected loss estimates; (6) deterioration in the financial condition of Assured Guaranty’s reinsurers, the amount and timing of reinsurance recoverables actually received and the risk that reinsurers may dispute amounts owed to Assured Guaranty under its reinsurance agreements; (7) increased competition, including from new entrants into the financial guaranty industry; (8) rating agency action on obligors, including sovereign debtors, resulting in a reduction in the value of securities in Assured Guaranty’s investment portfolio and in collateral posted by and to Assured Guaranty; (9) the inability of Assured Guaranty to access external sources of capital on acceptable terms; (10) changes in the world’s credit markets, segments thereof, interest rates or general economic conditions; (11) the impact of market volatility on the mark-to-market of Assured Guaranty’s contracts written in credit default swap form; (12) changes in applicable accounting policies or practices; (13) changes in applicable laws or regulations, including insurance and tax laws, or other governmental actions; (14) difficulties with the execution of Assured Guaranty’s business strategy; (15) loss of key personnel; (16) the effects of mergers, acquisitions and divestitures; (17) natural or man-made catastrophes; (18) other risks and uncertainties that have not been identified at this time; (19) management’s response to these factors; and (20) other risk factors identified in AGL’s filings with the SEC. Readers are cautioned not to place undue reliance on these forward looking statements, which speak only as of the dates on which they are made. Assured Guaranty undertakes no obligation to update publicly or review any forward looking statement, whether as a result of new information, future developments or otherwise, except as required by law.






Assured Guaranty Ltd.
Selected Financial Highlights
(dollars in millions, except per share amounts)
 
 
Three Months Ended
 
Six Months Ended
 
 
June 30,
 
June 30,
 
 
2015
 
2014
 
2015
 
2014
Operating income reconciliation:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Operating income
 
$
278

 
$
101

 
$
418

 
$
233

Plus after-tax adjustments:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Realized gains (losses) on investments
 
(8
)
 
(2
)
 
1

 
(3
)
Non-credit impairment unrealized fair value gains (losses) on credit derivatives
 
0

 
47

 
66

 
(124
)
Fair value gains (losses) on committed capital securities
 
15

 
(5
)
 
16

 
(10
)
Foreign exchange gains (losses) on remeasurement of premiums receivable and loss and loss adjustment expense (LAE) reserves
 
9

 
5

 
0

 
5

Effect of consolidating financial guaranty variable interest entities (FG VIEs)
 
3

 
13

 
(3
)
 
100

Net income (loss)
 
$
297

 
$
159

 
$
498

 
$
201

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Earnings per diluted share:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Operating income
 
$
1.83

 
$
0.56

 
$
2.71

 
$
1.28

Plus after-tax adjustments:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Realized gains (losses) on investments
 
(0.05
)
 
(0.01
)
 
0.01

 
(0.02
)
Non-credit impairment unrealized fair value gains (losses) on credit derivatives
 
0.00

 
0.26

 
0.43

 
(0.68
)
Fair value gains (losses) on committed capital securities
 
0.10

 
(0.02
)
 
0.10

 
(0.05
)
Foreign exchange gains (losses) on remeasurement of premiums receivable and loss and LAE reserves
 
0.06

 
0.02

 
0.00

 
0.03

Effect of consolidating FG VIEs
 
0.02

 
0.08

 
(0.02
)
 
0.55

Net income (loss)
 
$
1.96


$
0.89

 
$
3.23

 
$
1.11

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Weighted average shares outstanding
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Basic shares outstanding
 
150.6

 
178.4

 
153.2

 
180.3

Diluted shares outstanding (1)
 
151.6

 
179.5

 
154.1

 
181.3

Shares outstanding at the end of period
 
148.3

 
174.2

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Effect of refundings and terminations, net
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net earned premiums from refundings and terminations
 
$
96

 
$
24

 
$
137

 
$
53

Realized gains (losses) and other settlements from CDS terminations
 
2

 
1

 
13

 
1

Operating income effect
 
68

 
16

 
103

 
36

Operating income per diluted share effect
 
0.44

 
0.09

 
0.67

 
0.20

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Effective tax rate on operating income
 
25.4
%
 
25.6
%
 
24.3
%
 
26.2
%
Effective tax rate on net income
 
27.5
%
 
27.2
%
 
26.2
%
 
26.2
%
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Return on equity (ROE) calculations (2):
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
ROE, excluding unrealized gain (loss) on investment portfolio
 
21.7
%
 
12.9
%
 
18.2
%
 
8.2
%
Operating ROE
 
18.7
%
 
6.5
%
 
14.0
%
 
7.6
%
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
New business:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Gross par written
 
$
5,581

 
$
2,658

 
$
8,289

 
$
4,527

Present value of new business production (PVP) (3)   
 
$
26

 
$
27

 
$
62

 
$
58

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
As of
 
 
 
 
 
 
June 30,
 
December 31,
Other information:
 
 
 
 
 
2015
 
2014
Net debt service outstanding
 
 
 
 
 
$
584,429

 
$
609,622

Net par outstanding
 
 
 
 
 
390,384

 
403,729

Claims-paying resources (4)
 
 
 
 
 
12,646

 
12,189


1)
Non-GAAP diluted shares outstanding were the same as GAAP diluted shares.

2) Quarterly ROE calculations represent annualized returns.

3) Please refer to the explanation of Non-GAAP Financial Measures set forth at the end of this Financial Supplement.

4) See page 7 for additional detail on claims-paying resources.




1



Assured Guaranty Ltd.
Consolidated Balance Sheets (unaudited)
(dollars in millions)

 
 
As of:
 
 
June 30,
 
December 31,
 
 
2015
 
2014
Assets:
 
 
 
 
Investment portfolio:
 
 
 
 
Fixed maturity securities, available-for-sale, at fair value
 
$
10,582

 
$
10,491

Short-term investments, at fair value
 
834

 
767

Other invested assets
 
215

 
126

Total investment portfolio
 
11,631

 
11,384

 
 
 
 
 
Cash
 
75

 
75

Premiums receivable, net of commissions payable
 
703

 
729

Ceded unearned premium reserve
 
282

 
381

Deferred acquisition costs
 
119

 
121

Reinsurance recoverable on unpaid losses
 
77

 
78

Salvage and subrogation recoverable
 
139

 
151

Credit derivative assets
 
81

 
68

Deferred tax asset, net
 
439

 
260

Current income tax receivable
 
11

 

FG VIE assets, at fair value
 
1,601

 
1,402

Other assets
 
321

 
276

Total assets
 
$
15,479

 
$
14,925

 
 
 
 
 
Liabilities and shareholders' equity:
 
 
 
 
Liabilities:
 
 
 
 
Unearned premium reserve
 
$
4,389

 
$
4,261

Loss and loss adjustment expense reserve
 
996

 
799

Reinsurance balances payable, net
 
66

 
107

Long-term debt
 
1,305

 
1,303

Credit derivative liabilities
 
1,007

 
963

Current income tax payable
 

 
5

FG VIE liabilities with recourse, at fair value
 
1,361

 
1,277

FG VIE liabilities without recourse, at fair value
 
171

 
142

Other liabilities
 
378

 
310

Total liabilities
 
9,673

 
9,167

 
 
 
 
 
Shareholders' equity:
 
 
 
 
Common stock
 
1

 
2

Additional paid-in capital
 
1,606

 
1,887

Retained earnings
 
3,955

 
3,494

Accumulated other comprehensive income
 
239

 
370

Deferred equity compensation
 
5

 
5

Total shareholders' equity
 
5,806

 
5,758

Total liabilities and shareholders' equity
 
$
15,479

 
$
14,925





2



Assured Guaranty Ltd.
Consolidated Statements of Operations (unaudited)
(dollars in millions, except per share amounts)

 
 
 
Three Months Ended
 
Six Months Ended
 
 
 
June 30,
 
June 30,
 
 
 
2015
 
2014
 
2015
 
2014
Revenues:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net earned premiums
 
$
219

 
$
136

 
$
361

 
$
268

 
Net investment income
 
98

 
96

 
199

 
199

 
Net realized investment gains (losses)
 
(9
)
 
(8
)
 
7

 
(6
)
 
Net change in fair value of credit derivatives:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 Realized gains (losses) and other settlements
 
8

 
15

 
29

 
34

 
 
 Net unrealized gains (losses)
 
82

 
88

 
185

 
(142
)
 
 
 
Net change in fair value of credit derivatives
 
90

 
103

 
214

 
(108
)
 
Fair value gains (losses) on committed capital securities
 
23

 
(6
)
 
25

 
(15
)
 
Fair value gains (losses) on FG VIEs
 
5

 
25

 
(2
)
 
182

 
Bargain purchase gain and settlement of pre-existing relationship
 
214

 

 
214

 

 
Other income (loss)
 
55

 
7

 
46

 
28

 
 
Total revenues
 
695

 
353

 
1,064

 
548

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Expenses:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Loss and loss adjustment expenses
 
188

 
57

 
206

 
98

 
Amortization of deferred acquisition costs
 
6

 
3

 
10

 
8

 
Interest expense
 
26

 
20

 
51

 
40

 
Other operating expenses
 
66

 
55

 
122

 
115

 
 
Total expenses
 
286

 
135

 
389

 
261

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Income (loss) before income taxes
 
409

 
218

 
675

 
287

 
Provision (benefit) for income taxes
 
112

 
59

 
177

 
86

Net income (loss)
 
$
297

 
$
159

 
$
498

 
$
201

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Earnings per share:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Basic
 
$
1.97

 
$
0.89

 
$
3.25

 
$
1.12

 
Diluted
 
$
1.96

 
$
0.89

 
$
3.23

 
$
1.11

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 


3



Assured Guaranty Ltd.
Net Income (Loss) Reconciliation to Operating Income (1 of 2)
(dollars in millions)

 
 
Three Months Ended
 
Three Months Ended
 
 
June 30, 2015
 
June 30, 2014
 
 
GAAP Income Statement Line Items As Reported
 
Less: Operating Income Adjustments
 
Non-GAAP Operating Income Components
 
GAAP Income Statement Line Items As Reported
 
Less: Operating Income Adjustments
 
Non-GAAP Operating Income Components
Revenues:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net earned premiums
 
$
219

 
$
(5
)
(1)
$
224

 
$
136

 
$
(5
)
(1)
$
141

Net investment income
 
98

 
(1
)
(1)
99

 
96

 
(1
)
(1)
97

Net realized investment gains (losses)
 
(9
)
 
(9
)
(2)
0

 
(8
)
 
(8
)
(2)
0

Net change in fair value of credit derivatives:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Realized gains (losses) and other settlements
 
8

 
8

 

 
15

 
15

 

Net unrealized gains (losses)
 
82

 
82

 

 
88

 
88

 

Credit derivative revenues
 
 
 
(35
)
 
35

 

 
(21
)
 
21

Net change in fair value of credit derivatives
 
90

 
55

(3)
35

 
103

 
82

(3)
21

Fair value gains (losses) on committed capital securities
 
23

 
23

(4)

 
(6
)
 
(6
)
(4)

Fair value gains (losses) on FG VIEs
 
5

 
5

(1)

 
25

 
25

(1)

Bargain purchase gain and settlement of pre-existing relationship
 
214

 
(35
)
(1)(3)
249

 

 

 

Other income (loss)
 
55

 
13

(1)(5)
42

 
7

 
6

(1)(5)
1

Total revenues
 
695

 
46

 
649

 
353

 
93

 
260

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Expenses:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Loss and loss adjustment expenses:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Financial guaranty insurance
 
188

 
(1
)
(1)
189

 
57

 
(7
)
(1)
64

Credit derivatives
 

 
9

(3)
(9
)
 

 
18

(3)
(18
)
Amortization of deferred acquisition costs
 
6

 
0

 
6

 
3

 

 
3

Interest expense
 
26

 

 
26

 
20

 

 
20

Other operating expenses
 
66

 
1

 
65

 
55

 

 
55

Total expenses
 
286

 
9

 
277

 
135

 
11

 
124

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Income (loss) before income taxes
 
409

 
37

 
372

 
218

 
82

 
136

Provision (benefit) for income taxes
 
112

 
18

(6)
94

 
59

 
24

(6)
35

Net income (loss)
 
$
297

 
$
19

 
$
278

 
$
159

 
$
58

 
$
101


1)
Include adjustments related to elimination of the effects of consolidating FG VIEs.

2)
Adjustments to eliminate realized gains (losses) on available-for-sale investments.

3)
Adjustments to eliminate non-economic fair value gains (losses) on credit derivatives and reclassification to revenues and loss expense.

4)
Adjustments to eliminate fair value gain (loss) on committed capital securities.

5)
Include adjustments related to elimination of foreign exchange gains (losses) on remeasurement of premiums receivable and loss and LAE reserves.

6)
Tax effect of the above adjustments.

Please refer to the explanation of Non-GAAP Financial Measures set forth at the end of this Financial Supplement.




4



Assured Guaranty Ltd.
Net Income (Loss) Reconciliation to Operating Income (2 of 2)
(dollars in millions)

 
 
Six Months Ended
 
Six Months Ended
 
 
June 30, 2015
 
June 30, 2014
 
 
GAAP Income Statement Line Items As Reported
 
Less: Operating Income Adjustments
 
Non-GAAP Operating Income Components
 
GAAP Income Statement Line Items As Reported
 
Less: Operating Income Adjustments
 
Non-GAAP Operating Income Components
Revenues:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net earned premiums
 
$
361

 
$
(10
)
(1)
$
371

 
$
268

 
$
(22
)
(1)
$
290

Net investment income
 
199

 
(2
)
(1)
201

 
199

 
3

(1)
196

Net realized investment gains (losses)
 
7

 
7

(2)

 
(6
)
 
(8
)
(2)
2

Net change in fair value of credit derivatives:
 
 
 
 
 

 
 
 
 
 
 
Realized gains (losses) and other settlements
 
29

 
29

 

 
34

 
34

 

Net unrealized gains (losses)
 
185

 
185

 

 
(142
)
 
(142
)
 

Credit derivative revenues
 

 
(59
)
 
59

 

 
(41
)
 
41

Net change in fair value of credit derivatives
 
214

 
155

(3)
59

 
(108
)
 
(149
)
(3)
41

Fair value gains (losses) on committed capital securities
 
25

 
25

(4)

 
(15
)
 
(15
)
(4)

Fair value gains (losses) on FG VIEs
 
(2
)
 
(2
)
(1)

 
182

 
182

(1)

Bargain purchase gain and settlement of pre-existing relationship
 
214

 
(35
)
(1)(3)
249

 

 

 

Other income (loss)
 
46

 

(1)(5)
46

 
28

 

(1)(5)
28

Total revenues
 
1,064

 
138

 
926

 
548

 
(9
)
 
557

 
 
 
 
 
 

 
 
 
 
 
 
Expenses:
 
 
 
 
 

 
 
 
 
 
 
Loss and loss adjustment expenses:
 
 
 
 
 

 
 
 
 
 
 
Financial guaranty insurance
 
206

 
(7
)
(1)
213

 
98

 
(6
)
(1)
104

Credit derivatives
 

 
21

(3)
(21
)
 

 
26

(3)
(26
)
Amortization of deferred acquisition costs
 
10

 
0

 
10

 
8

 

 
8

Interest expense
 
51

 

 
51

 
40

 

 
40

Other operating expenses
 
122

 
1

 
121

 
115

 

 
115

Total expenses
 
389

 
15

 
374

 
261

 
20

 
241

 
 
 
 
 
 

 
 
 
 
 
 
Income (loss) before income taxes
 
675

 
123

 
552

 
287

 
(29
)
 
316

Provision (benefit) for income taxes
 
177

 
43

(6)
134

 
86

 
3

(6)
83

Net income (loss)
 
$
498

 
$
80

 
$
418

 
$
201

 
$
(32
)
 
$
233


1)
Include adjustments related to elimination of the effects of consolidating FG VIEs.

2)
Adjustments to eliminate realized gains (losses) on available-for-sale investments.

3)
Adjustments to eliminate non-economic fair value gains (losses) on credit derivatives and reclassification to revenues and loss expense.

4)
Adjustments to eliminate fair value gain (loss) on committed capital securities.

5)
Include adjustments related to elimination of foreign exchange gains (losses) on remeasurement of premiums receivable and loss and LAE reserves.

6)
Tax effect of the above adjustments.

Please refer to the explanation of Non-GAAP Financial Measures set forth at the end of this Financial Supplement.


5



Assured Guaranty Ltd.
Adjusted Book Value
(dollars in millions, except per share amounts)


 
 
As of:
 
 
June 30, 2015
 
December 31, 2014
 
 
Total
 
Per Share
 
Total
 
Per Share
Reconciliation of shareholders' equity to adjusted book value:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Shareholders' equity
 
$
5,806

 
$
39.16

 
$
5,758

 
$
36.37

Less after-tax adjustments:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Effect of consolidating FG VIEs
 
(40
)
 
(0.27
)
 
(44
)
 
(0.28
)
Non-credit impairment unrealized fair value gains (losses) on credit derivatives
 
(447
)
 
(3.02
)
 
(527
)
 
(3.33
)
Fair value gains (losses) on committed capital securities
 
39

 
0.26

 
23

 
0.14

Unrealized gain (loss) on investment portfolio excluding foreign exchange effect
 
243

 
1.64

 
373

 
2.36

Operating shareholders' equity
 
6,011

 
40.55

 
5,933

 
37.48

After-tax adjustments:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Less: Deferred acquisition costs
 
150

 
1.01

 
156

 
0.99

Plus: Net present value of estimated net future credit derivative revenue
 
155

 
1.04

 
109

 
0.69

Plus: Net unearned premium reserve on financial guaranty contracts in excess of expected loss to be expensed
 
2,685

 
18.11

 
2,609

 
16.48

Adjusted book value
 
$
8,701

 
$
58.69

 
$
8,495

 
$
53.66



Please refer to the explanation of Non-GAAP Financial Measures set forth at the end of this Financial Supplement.



6



Assured Guaranty Ltd.
Claims-Paying Resources
(dollars in millions)
 
 
As of June 30, 2015
 
 
Assured Guaranty Municipal Corp.
 
Assured Guaranty Corp.
 
Municipal Assurance Corp.
 
Assured Guaranty Re Ltd. (10)
 
Eliminations(4)
 
Consolidated
Claims-paying resources
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Policyholders' surplus
 
$
2,181

 
$
1,393

 
$
642

 
$
1,010

 
$
(897
)
 
$
4,329

Contingency reserve(1)
 
1,548

 
1,008

 
321

 

 
(321
)
 
2,556

Qualified statutory capital
 
3,729

 
2,401

 
963

 
1,010

 
(1,218
)
 
6,885

Unearned premium reserve(1)
 
1,670

 
744

 
521

 
836

 
(521
)
 
3,250

Loss and LAE reserves (1) (2)
 
520

 
116

 

 
323

 

 
959

Total policyholders' surplus and reserves
 
5,919

 
3,261

 
1,484

 
2,169

 
(1,739
)
 
11,094

Present value of installment premium(1)
 
290

 
246

 
3

 
166

 
(3
)
 
702

Committed Capital Securities
 
200

 
200

 

 

 

 
400

Excess of loss reinsurance facility (3)
 
450

 
450

 
450

 

 
(900
)
 
450

Total claims-paying resources (including proportionate MAC ownership for AGM and AGC)
 
6,859

 
4,157

 
1,937

 
2,335

 
(2,642
)
 
12,646

Adjustment for MAC (5)
 
942

 
545

 

 

 
(1,487
)
 

Total claims-paying resources (excluding proportionate MAC ownership for AGM and AGC)
 
$
5,917

 
$
3,612

 
$
1,937

 
$
2,335

 
$
(1,155
)
 
$
12,646

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Statutory net par outstanding (6)                     
 
$
140,951

 
$
54,382

 
$
70,922

 
$
94,953

 
$
(1,993
)
 
$
359,215

Equity method adjustment (7)
 
43,050

 
27,872

 

 

 
(70,922
)
 

Adjusted statutory net par outstanding (1)
 
$
184,001

 
$
82,254

 
$
70,922

 
$
94,953

 
$
(72,915
)
 
$
359,215

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net debt service outstanding (6) 
 
$
218,848

 
$
80,458

 
$
105,416

 
$
149,739

 
$
(3,891
)
 
$
550,570

Equity method adjustment (7)
 
63,988

 
41,429

 

 

 
(105,417
)
 

Adjusted net debt service outstanding (1)
 
$
282,836

 
$
121,887

 
$
105,416

 
$
149,739

 
$
(109,308
)
 
$
550,570

Ratios:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Adjusted net par outstanding to qualified statutory capital
 
49:1
 
34:1
 
74:1
 
94:1
 

 
52:1
Capital ratio (8)
 
76:1
 
51:1
 
109:1
 
148:1
 

 
80:1
Financial resources ratio (9)
 
41:1
 
29:1
 
54:1
 
64:1
 

 
44:1
1)
The numbers shown for Assured Guaranty Municipal Corp. (AGM) and Assured Guaranty Corp. (AGC) have been adjusted to include (i) their 100% share of their respective U.K. insurance subsidiaries and (ii) their indirect share of Municipal Assurance Corp. (MAC). AGM and AGC own 60.7% and 39.3%, respectively, of the outstanding stock of Municipal Assurance Holdings Inc., which owns 100% of the outstanding common stock of MAC. Amounts include financial guaranty insurance and credit derivatives.
2)
Reserves are reduced by approximately $0.2 billion for benefit related to representation and warranty recoverables.
3)
Represents an aggregate $450 million excess-of-loss reinsurance facility for the benefit of AGC, AGM and MAC, which became effective January 1, 2014. The facility terminates on January 1, 2016, unless AGC, AGM and MAC choose to extend it.
4)
Eliminations are primarily for (i) intercompany surplus notes between AGM and AGC, and between AGM and MAC, and (ii) MAC amounts, whose proportionate share are included in AGM and AGC based on ownership percentages. Net par and net debt service outstanding eliminations relate to second-to-pay policies under which an Assured Guaranty insurance subsidiary guarantees an obligation already insured by another Assured Guaranty insurance subsidiary, and net par related to intercompany cessions from AGM and AGC to MAC.
5)
Represents adjustment for AGM's and AGC's interest and indirect ownership of MAC's total policyholders' surplus, unearned premium reserve, and loss reserves and present value of installment premium.
6)
Net par outstanding and net debt service outstanding are presented on a statutory basis. Under statutory accounting, such amounts would be reduced both when an outstanding issue is legally defeased (i.e., an issuer has legally discharged its obligations with respect to a municipal security by satisfying conditions set forth in defeasance provisions contained in transaction documents and is no longer responsible for the payment of debt service with respect to such obligations) and when such issue is economically defeased (i.e., transaction documents for a municipal security do not contain defeasance provisions but the issuer establishes an escrow account with U.S. government securities in amounts sufficient to pay the refunded bonds when due; the refunded bonds are not considered paid and continue to be outstanding under the transaction documents and the issuer remains responsible to pay debt service when due to the extent monies on deposit in the escrow account are insufficient for such purpose).
7)
Equity method adjustment is an adjustment made to reflect AGM's and AGC's net exposure to MAC, as determined by their indirect equity ownership.
8)
The capital ratio is calculated by dividing adjusted net debt service outstanding by qualified statutory capital.
9)
The financial resources ratio is calculated by dividing adjusted net debt service outstanding by total claims-paying resources (including MAC adjustment for AGM and AGC).
10)
Assured Guaranty Re Ltd. (AG Re) numbers represent the Company's estimate of U.S. statutory accounting practices prescribed or permitted by insurance regulatory authorities.


7



Assured Guaranty Ltd.
New Business Production
(dollars in millions)

 
 
Three Months Ended
 
Six Months Ended
 
 
June 30,
 
June 30,
 
 
2015
 
2014
 
2015
 
2014
New business production analysis:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
PVP:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Public finance - U.S.
 
$
25

 
$
16

 
$
38

 
$
39

Public finance - non-U.S.
 

 

 

 
7

Structured finance - U.S.
 
1

 
6

 
19

 
7

Structured finance - non-U.S.
 

 
5

 
5

 
5

Total PVP

$
26

 
27

 
$
62

 
$
58

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Reconciliation of PVP to gross written premiums (GWP):
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Total PVP
 
$
26


$
27

 
$
62

 
$
58

Less: PVP of non-financial guaranty insurance
 



 
6

 

PVP of financial guaranty insurance
 
26

 
27

 
56

 
58

Less: Financial guaranty installment premium PVP
 
1


11

 
18

 
21

Total: Financial guaranty upfront GWP
 
25

 
16

 
38

 
37

Plus: Installment GWP and other GAAP adjustments (1)
 
(3
)
 
1

 
16

 
10

Total GWP
 
$
22

 
17

 
54

 
47

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Gross par written:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Public finance - U.S.
 
$
5,581

 
$
2,453

 
$
8,022

 
$
4,190

Public finance - non-U.S.
 

 

 

 
128

Structured finance - U.S.
 

 
5

 
261

 
9

Structured finance - non-U.S.
 

 
200

 
6

 
200

Total

$
5,581

 
$
2,658

 
$
8,289

 
$
4,527



1)
Includes present value of new business on installment policies plus GWP adjustment on existing installment policies due to changes in assumptions and any cancellations of assumed reinsurance contracts and other GAAP adjustments.

Please refer to the explanation of Non-GAAP Financial Measures set forth at the end of this Financial Supplement.



8



Assured Guaranty Ltd.
Gross Par Written
(dollars in millions)


Gross Par Written by Asset Type

 
 
Three Months Ended
 
Six Months Ended
 
 
June 30, 2015
 
June 30, 2015
 
 
Gross Par Written
 
Avg. Internal Rating
 
Gross Par Written
 
Avg. Internal Rating
Sector:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
U.S. public finance
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
General obligation
 
$
3,613

 
A
 
$
4,944

 
A
Tax backed
 
1,011

 
A-
 
1,580

 
A-
Municipal utilities
 
534

 
A-
 
821

 
A-
Transportation
 
227

 
BBB
 
385

 
BBB
Higher education
 
196

 
A
 
292

 
A
Total U.S. public finance
 
5,581

 
A-
 
8,022

 
A-
Non-U.S. public finance:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Total non-U.S. public finance
 

 
 

 
Total public finance
 
$
5,581

 
A-
 
$
8,022

 
A-
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
U.S. structured finance:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Insurance securitization
 
$

 
 
$
250

 
AA
Other structure finance
 

 
 
11

 
A
Total U.S. structured finance
 

 
 
261

 
AA
Non-U.S. structured finance:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Other structured finance
 

 
 
6

 
AA-
Total non-U.S. structured finance
 

 
 
6

 
AA-
Total structured finance
 
$

 
 
$
267

 
AA
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Total gross par written
 
$
5,581

 
A-
 
$
8,289

 
A-


Please refer to the Glossary for a description of internal ratings and sectors.




9



Assured Guaranty Ltd.
New Business Production by Quarter
(dollars in millions)


 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Six Months
 
 
1Q-14
 
2Q-14
 
3Q-14
 
4Q-14
 
1Q-15
 
2Q-15
 
2014
 
2015
PVP:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Public finance - U.S.
 
$
23

 
$
16

 
$
51

 
$
38

 
$
13

 
$
25

 
$
39

 
$
38

Public finance - non-U.S.
 
7

 

 

 

 

 

 
7

 

Structured finance - U.S.
 
1

 
6

 
1

 
16

 
18

 
1

 
7

 
19

Structured finance - non-U.S.
 

 
5

 
4

 

 
5

 

 
5

 
5

Total PVP
 
$
31

 
$
27

 
$
56

 
$
54

 
$
36

 
$
26

 
$
58

 
$
62

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Reconciliation of PVP to GWP:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Total PVP
 
$
31

 
$
27

 
$
56

 
$
54

 
$
36

 
$
26

 
$
58

 
$
62

Less: PVP of non-financial guaranty insurance
 

 

 

 

 
6

 

 

 
6

PVP of financial guaranty insurance
 
31

 
27

 
56

 
54

 
30

 
26

 
58

 
56

Less: Financial guaranty installment premium PVP
 
10

 
11

 
4

 
17

 
17

 
1

 
21

 
18

Total: Financial guaranty upfront GWP
 
21

 
16

 
52

 
37

 
13

 
25

 
37

 
38

Plus: Installment GWP and other GAAP adjustments
 
9

 
1

 
(5
)
 
(27
)
 
19

 
(3
)
 
10

 
16

Total GWP
 
$
30

 
$
17

 
$
47

 
$
10

 
$
32

 
$
22

 
$
47

 
$
54

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Gross par written:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Public finance - U.S.
 
$
1,737

 
$
2,453

 
$
4,018

 
$
4,067

 
$
2,441

 
$
5,581

 
$
4,190

 
$
8,022

Public finance - non-U.S.
 
128

 

 

 

 

 

 
128

 

Structured finance - U.S.
 
4

 
5

 
9

 
400

 
261

 

 
9

 
261

Structured finance - non-U.S.
 

 
200

 
150

 

 
6

 

 
200

 
6

Total
 
$
1,869

 
$
2,658

 
$
4,177

 
$
4,467

 
$
2,708

 
$
5,581

 
$
4,527

 
$
8,289



Please refer to the explanation of Non-GAAP Financial Measures set forth at the end of this Financial Supplement.


10



Assured Guaranty Ltd.
Available-for-Sale Investment Portfolio and Cash
As of June 30, 2015
(dollars in millions)
                                           
 
 
 
Amortized Cost
 
Pre-Tax Book Yield
 
After-Tax Book Yield
 
Fair Value
 
Annualized Investment Income (1)
Investment portfolio, available-for-sale:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Fixed maturity securities:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Obligations of states and political subdivisions
 
$
5,012

 
3.87
%
 
3.59
%
 
$
5,204

 
$
194

 
Insured obligations of state and political subdivisions (2)(4)
 
724

 
4.69
%
 
4.39
%
 
782

 
34

 
U.S. Treasury securities and obligations of U.S. government agencies
 
294

 
1.84
%
 
1.30
%
 
303

 
5

 
Agency obligations
 
165

 
4.33
%
 
3.58
%
 
183

 
7

 
Corporate securities
 
1,415

 
3.69
%
 
2.91
%
 
1,442

 
52

 
Mortgage-backed securities (MBS) (3):
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Residential MBS (RMBS) (4)
 
1,584

 
4.49
%
 
3.32
%
 
1,600

 
71

 
 
Commercial MBS (CMBS)
 
588

 
3.56
%
 
2.92
%
 
601

 
21

 
Asset-backed securities
 
416

 
3.26
%
 
2.26
%
 
431

 
14

 
Foreign government securities
 
302

 
2.44
%
 
1.59
%
 
307

 
8

 
 
Total fixed maturity securities
 
10,500

 
3.86
%
 
3.30
%
 
10,853

 
406

Short-term investments
 
828

 
0.03
%
 
0.02
%
 
828

 
0

Cash (5)
 
75

 
%
 
%
 
75

 

 
 
Total
 
$
11,403

 
3.58
%
 
3.06
%
 
$
11,756

 
$
406

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Less: FG VIEs
 
265

 
4.71
%
 
3.06
%
 
265

 
13

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Total
 
$
11,138

 
3.55
%
 
3.06
%
 
$
11,491

 
$
393

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Ratings (6):
 
Fair Value
 
% of Portfolio
 
 
 

 
 
 
U.S. Treasury securities and obligations of U.S. government agencies
 
$
303

 
2.8
%
 
 
 

 
 
 
Agency obligations
 
183

 
1.7
%
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
AAA/Aaa
 
1,338

 
12.3
%
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
AA/Aa
 
5,784

 
53.3
%
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
A/A
 
2,422

 
22.3
%
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
BBB
 
45

 
0.4
%
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Below investment grade (BIG) (7)
 
749

 
6.9
%
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Not rated
 
29

 
0.3
%
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Total fixed maturity securities, available-for-sale
 
10,853

 
100.0
%
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Less: FG VIEs
 
271

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Total fixed maturity securities, available-for-sale
 
$
10,582

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Duration of fixed maturity securities and short-term investments (in years):
 
 
 
5.2
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Average ratings of fixed maturity securities and short-term investments
 
 
 
AA-
 
 
 
 
 
 


1)
Represents annualized investment income based on amortized cost and pre-tax book yields.
2)
Reflects obligations of state and local political subdivisions that have been insured by other financial guarantors. The underlying ratings of these bonds, after giving effect to the lower of the rating assigned by Standard & Poor's Ratings Services (S&P) or Moody's Investors Service, Inc. (Moody's), average A+. Includes fair value of $214 million insured by AGC and AGM.
3)
Includes fair value of $306 million in subprime RMBS, which has an average rating of BIG.
4)
Includes securities purchased or obtained as part of loss mitigation or other risk management strategies.
5)
Represents operating cash and is not included in yield calculations.
6)
Ratings are represented by the lower of the Moody's and S&P classifications except for bonds purchased for loss mitigation (loss mitigation bonds) or other risk management strategies which use internal ratings classifications.
7)
Includes below investment grade securities that were purchased or obtained as part of loss mitigation or other risk management strategies of $1,511 million in par with carrying value of $737 million.


11



Assured Guaranty Ltd.
Estimated Net Exposure Amortization(1) and Estimated Future Net Premium
and Credit Derivative Revenues
(dollars in millions)

 
 
 
 
 
 
Financial Guaranty Insurance (2)
 
 
 
 
 
 
Estimated Net Debt Service Amortization
 
Estimated Ending Net Debt Service Outstanding
 
Expected PV Net Earned Premiums
 
Accretion of Discount
 
Future Net Premiums Earned (3)
 
Future Credit Derivative Revenues (4)
 
Total
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
2015 (as of June 30)
 
 
$
584,429

 
 
 
 
 

 
 
 

2015 Q3
 
$
16,780

 
567,649

 
$
108

 
$
5

 
$
113

 
$
31

 
$
144

2015 Q4
 
13,125

 
554,524

 
105

 
5

 
110

 
31

 
141

2016
 
50,201

 
504,323

 
400

 
19

 
419

 
118

 
537

2017
 
50,248

 
454,075

 
349

 
18

 
367

 
30

 
397

2018
 
32,920

 
421,155

 
314

 
17

 
331

 
14

 
345

2019
 
29,497

 
391,658

 
285

 
15

 
300

 
13

 
313

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
2015-2019
 
192,771

 
391,658

 
1,561

 
79

 
1,640

 
237

 
1,877

2020-2024
 
130,553

 
261,105

 
1,108

 
60

 
1,168

 
55

 
1,223

2025-2029
 
103,574

 
157,531

 
704

 
37

 
741

 
38

 
779

2030-2034
 
73,840

 
83,691

 
425

 
21

 
446

 
32

 
478

After 2034
 
83,691

 

 
350

 
15

 
365

 
22

 
387

 
Total
 
$
584,429

 
 
 
$
4,148

 
$
212

 
$
4,360

 
$
384

 
$
4,744


1)
Represents the future expected amortization of current debt service outstanding (principal and interest), assuming no advance refundings, as of June 30, 2015. Actual amortization differs from expected maturities because borrowers may have the right to call or prepay guaranteed obligations and because of management's assumptions on structured finance amortization.

2)
See page 14 for ‘‘Present Value of Financial Guaranty Insurance Net Expected Loss to be Expensed.’’

3)
Includes $130 million in future net premiums earned related to FG VIEs.

4)
Excludes contracts with credit impairment.






12



Assured Guaranty Ltd.
Expected Amortization of Net Par Outstanding
(dollars in millions)

Structured Finance
 
 
 
Estimated Net Par Amortization
 
 
 
 
 
U.S. and Non-U.S. Pooled Corporate
 
U.S. RMBS
 
Financial Products
 
Other Structured Finance
 
Total
 
Estimated Ending Net Par Outstanding
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
2015 (as of June 30)
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 

 
$
45,883

2015 Q3
 
$
1,385

 
$
402

 
$
103

 
$
579

 
$
2,469

 
43,414

2015 Q4
 
1,017

 
365

 
6

 
635

 
2,023

 
41,391

2016
 
5,747

 
1,357

 
140

 
1,198

 
8,442

 
32,949

2017
 
10,704

 
1,199

 
56

 
1,161

 
13,120

 
19,829

2018
 
1,093

 
1,011

 
(22
)
 
698

 
2,780

 
17,049

2019
 
568

 
1,016

 
9

 
671

 
2,264

 
14,785

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 

2015-2019
 
20,514

 
5,350

 
292

 
4,942

 
31,098

 
14,785

2020-2024
 
687

 
2,317

 
140

 
2,609

 
5,753

 
9,032

2025-2029
 
480

 
669

 
524

 
1,210

 
2,883

 
6,149

2030-2034
 
741

 
156

 
792

 
759

 
2,448

 
3,701

After 2034
 
1,672

 
436

 
266

 
1,327

 
3,701

 

 
Total structured finance
 
$
24,094

 
$
8,928

 
$
2,014

 
$
10,847

 
$
45,883

 


Public Finance
 
 
 
Estimated Net Par Amortization
 
Estimated Ending Net Par Outstanding
 
 
 
 
 
 
2015 (as of June 30)
 
 
$
344,501

2015 Q3
 
$
10,175

 
334,326

2015 Q4
 
6,894

 
327,432

2016
 
25,897

 
301,535

2017
 
22,638

 
278,897

2018
 
16,680

 
262,217

2019
 
14,551

 
247,666

 
 
 
 
 
 
2015-2019
 
96,835

 
247,666

2020-2024
 
71,904

 
175,762

2025-2029
 
64,830

 
110,932

2030-2034
 
49,751

 
61,181

After 2034
 
61,181

 

 
Total public finance
 
$
344,501

 



Net par outstanding (end of period)
 
 
 
1Q-14
 
2Q-14
 
3Q-14
 
4Q-14
 
1Q-15
 
2Q-15
Public finance - U.S.
 
$
346,428

 
$
338,956

 
$
329,225

 
$
322,123

 
$
313,444

 
$
312,182

Public finance - non-U.S.
 
34,826

 
35,408

 
33,487

 
31,359

 
29,619

 
32,319

Structured finance - U.S.
 
55,393

 
51,442

 
44,874

 
41,171

 
38,430

 
38,906

Structured finance - non-U.S.
 
12,978

 
11,770

 
10,429

 
9,076

 
7,606

 
6,977

 
Net par outstanding
 
449,625

 
437,576

 
418,015

 
403,729

 
389,099

 
390,384


Please refer to the Glossary for an explanation of the presentation of net par outstanding and of the various sectors.

13



Assured Guaranty Ltd.
Present Value (PV) of Net Expected Loss to be Expensed
As of June 30, 2015
(dollars in millions)


 
 
 
Net Expected Loss to be Expensed (1)
 
 
 
Operating(2)
 
GAAP(2)
 
 
 
 
 
 
2015 Q3
 
$
15

 
$
12

2015 Q4
 
16

 
12

2016
 
129

 
40

2017
 
46

 
33

2018
 
38

 
30

2019
 
35

 
29

 
 
 
 
 
 
2015-2019
 
279

 
156

2020-2024
 
124

 
106

2025-2029
 
86

 
77

2030-2034
 
64

 
55

After 2034
 
34

 
27

 
Total expected PV of net expected loss to be expensed
 
587

 
421

Discount
 
531

 
494

 
Total expected future loss and LAE
 
$
1,118

 
$
915



1)
The present value of net expected loss to be paid is discounted using weighted-average risk free rates ranging from 0.0% to 3.37% for U.S. dollar denominated obligations.

2)
Net expected loss to be expensed for GAAP reported income is different than operating income, a non-GAAP financial measure, by the amount related to consolidated FG VIEs and credit derivatives.



14



Assured Guaranty Ltd.
Financial Guaranty Profile (1 of 4)
(dollars in millions)


Net Par Outstanding and Average Rating by Asset Type

 
 
 
June 30, 2015
 
December 31, 2014
 
 
 
Net Par Outstanding
 
Avg. Internal Rating
 
Net Par Outstanding
 
Avg. Internal Rating
U.S. public finance:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
General obligation
 
$
135,967

 
A
 
$
140,276

 
A
 
Tax backed
 
60,982

 
A
 
62,525

 
A
 
Municipal utilities
 
49,567

 
A
 
52,090

 
A
 
Transportation
 
26,070

 
A
 
27,823

 
A
 
Healthcare
 
15,886

 
A
 
14,848

 
A
 
Higher education
 
12,673

 
A
 
13,099

 
A
 
Infrastructure finance
 
4,312

 
BBB
 
4,181

 
BBB
 
Housing
 
2,373

 
A
 
2,779

 
A+
 
Investor-owned utilities
 
951

 
A-
 
944

 
A-
 
Other public finance
 
3,401

 
A
 
3,558

 
A
 
 
Total U.S. public finance
 
312,182

 
A
 
322,123

 
A
Non-U.S. public finance:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Infrastructure finance
 
13,111

 
BBB
 
12,808

 
BBB
 
Regulated utilities
 
11,651

 
BBB+
 
10,914

 
BBB+
 
Pooled infrastructure
 
2,368

 
AA
 
2,420

 
AA
 
Other public finance
 
5,189

 
A
 
5,217

 
A
 
 
Total non-U.S. public finance
 
32,319

 
BBB+
 
31,359

 
BBB+
Total public finance
 
$
344,501

 
A
 
$
353,482

 
A
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
U.S. structured finance:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Pooled corporate obligations
 
$
19,456

 
AA+
 
$
20,646

 
AAA
 
RMBS
 
8,928

 
BBB-
 
9,417

 
BBB-
 
Insurance securitizations
 
3,383

 
A-
 
3,433

 
A-
 
Consumer receivables
 
2,129

 
A-
 
2,099

 
BBB+
 
Financial products
 
2,014

 
AA-
 
2,276

 
AA-
 
CMBS and other commercial real estate related exposures
 
1,749

 
AA
 
1,957

 
AAA
 
Commercial receivables
 
488

 
BBB+
 
560

 
BBB+
 
Structured credit
 
71

 
BBB
 
69

 
BB
 
Other structured finance
 
688

 
AA
 
714

 
AA
 
 
Total U.S. structured finance
 
38,906

 
A+
 
41,171

 
AA-
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Non-U.S. structured finance:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Pooled corporate obligations
 
4,638

 
AA
 
6,604

 
AA+
 
Commercial receivables
 
871

 
BBB
 
944

 
BBB
 
RMBS
 
745

 
A
 
794

 
A
 
Structured credit
 
7

 
BBB+
 
9

 
BBB+
 
Other structured finance
 
716

 
AA
 
725

 
AA
 
 
Total non-U.S. structured finance
 
6,977

 
AA-
 
9,076

 
AA
Total structured finance
 
$
45,883

 
AA-
 
$
50,247

 
AA-
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Total
 
$
390,384

 
A
 
$
403,729

 
A


Please refer to the Glossary for an explanation of the presentation of net par outstanding and in the Company's internal rating approach, and of the various sectors.



15



Assured Guaranty Ltd.
Financial Guaranty Profile (2 of 4)
As of June 30, 2015
(dollars in millions)


Distribution by Ratings of Financial Guaranty Portfolio

 
 
 
Public Finance - U.S.
 
Public Finance - Non-U.S.
 
Structured Finance - U.S.
 
Structured Finance - Non-U.S.
 
Total
Ratings:
 
Net Par Outstanding
%
 
Net Par Outstanding
%
 
Net Par Outstanding
%
 
Net Par Outstanding
%
 
Net Par Outstanding
%
AAA
 
$
3,280

1.1
%
 
$
695

2.1
%
 
$
17,619

45.3
%
 
$
3,715

53.2
%
 
$
25,309

6.5
%
AA
 
80,550

25.8

 
2,735

8.5

 
8,628

22.2

 
395

5.7

 
92,308

23.6

A
 
171,633

55.0

 
7,627

23.6

 
2,684

6.9

 
378

5.4

 
182,322

46.7

BBB
 
46,822

15.0

 
19,651

60.8

 
1,797

4.6

 
1,771

25.4

 
70,041

17.9

BIG
 
9,897

3.1

 
1,611

5.0

 
8,178

21.0

 
718

10.3

 
20,404

5.3

 
Net Par Outstanding (1)
 
$
312,182

100.0
%
 
$
32,319

100.0
%
 
$
38,906

100.0
%
 
$
6,977

100.0
%
 
$
390,384

100.0
%

1)
Excludes $1.2 billion of loss mitigation securities insured and held by the Company as of June 30, 2015, which are primarily in the BIG category. The June 30, 2015 amounts include 13.1 billion of net par acquired from Radian Asset.

Please refer to the Glossary for an explanation of the presentation of net par outstanding and in the Company's internal rating approach, and of the various sectors.





16



Assured Guaranty Ltd.
Financial Guaranty Profile (3 of 4)
As of June 30, 2015
(dollars in millions)


Geographic Distribution of Financial Guaranty Portfolio

 
 
 
Net Par Outstanding
 
% of Total
U.S.:
 
 
 
 
U.S. public finance:
 
 
 
 
 
California
 
$
50,588

 
13.0
%
 
Pennsylvania
 
25,902

 
6.6

 
Texas
 
24,946

 
6.4

 
New York
 
24,329

 
6.2

 
Illinois
 
22,578

 
5.8

 
Florida
 
18,639

 
4.8

 
New Jersey
 
14,211

 
3.6

 
Michigan
 
11,510

 
2.9

 
Ohio
 
7,498

 
1.9

 
Georgia
 
7,281

 
1.9

 
Other states and U.S. territories
 
104,700

 
26.8

 
 
Total public finance
 
312,182

 
79.9

U.S. structured finance:
 
38,906

 
10.0

 
 
Total U.S.
 
351,088

 
89.9

 
 
 
 
 
 
Non-U.S.:
 
 
 
 
 
United Kingdom
 
20,312

 
5.2

 
Australia
 
4,302

 
1.1

 
Canada
 
3,384

 
0.9

 
France
 
2,540

 
0.7

 
Italy
 
1,385

 
0.4

 
Other
 
7,373

 
1.8

 
 
Total non-U.S.
 
39,296

 
10.1

 
 
 
 
 
 
Total net par outstanding
 
$
390,384

 
100.0
%

Please refer to the Glossary for an explanation of the presentation of net par outstanding and of the various sectors.



17



Assured Guaranty Ltd.
Financial Guaranty Profile (4 of 4)
As of June 30, 2015
(dollars in millions)


Net Direct Economic Exposure to Selected European Countries

 
 
 
Hungary
 
Italy
 
Portugal
 
Spain
 
Total
Sovereign and sub-sovereign exposure:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Non-infrastructure public finance
 
$

 
$
813

 
$
90

 
$
257

 
$
1,160

 
Infrastructure finance
 
291

 
11

 
11

 
126

 
439

 
 
Total sovereign and sub-sovereign exposure
 
291

 
824

 
101

 
383

 
1,599

Non-sovereign exposure:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Regulated utilities
 

 
226

 

 

 
226

 
RMBS and other structured finance
 
175

 
256

 

 
13

 
444

 
 
Total non-sovereign exposure
 
175

 
482

 

 
13

 
670

 
 
Total
 
$
466

 
$
1,306

 
$
101

 
$
396

 
$
2,269

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Total BIG
 
$
397

 
$

 
$
101

 
$
396

 
$
894



Note: While the Company’s exposures are shown in U.S. dollars, the obligations the Company insures are in various currencies, primarily Euros. One of the residential mortgage-backed securities included in the table above includes residential mortgages in both Italy and Germany, and only the portion of the transaction equal to the portion of the original mortgage pool in Italian mortgages is shown in the table.

Please refer to the Glossary for an explanation of the Company's net par outstanding, internal rating approach and of the various sectors.


18



Assured Guaranty Ltd.
Exposure to Puerto Rico (1 of 3)
As of June 30, 2015
(dollars in millions)

Gross Par and Gross Debt Service Outstanding of Puerto Rico
 
Gross Par Outstanding
 
Net Par Outstanding
 
Gross Debt Service Outstanding
 
Net Debt Service Outstanding
Previously Subject to the Voided Puerto Rico Public Corporation Debt Enforcement and Recovery Act (the "Recovery Act") (1)
$
3,135

 
$
2,705

 
$
5,408

 
$
4,736

Not Previously Subject to the Voided Recovery Act
3,087

 
2,725

 
4,852

 
4,376

   Total
$
6,222

 
$
5,430

 
$
10,260

 
$
9,112

1) On February 6, 2015, the U.S. District Court for the District of Puerto Rico ruled that the Recovery Act is preempted by the Federal Bankruptcy Code and is therefore void, and on July 6, 2015, the U.S. Court of Appeals for the First Circuit upheld that ruling.

Net Exposure to Puerto Rico by Risk
 
 
Net Par Outstanding
 
 
 
 
 
 
AGM Consolidated
 
AGC Consolidated
 
AG Re Consolidated
 
Eliminations (1)
 
Total Net Par Outstanding (2)(3)(4)
 
Gross Par Outstanding
 
Internal Rating
Exposures Previously Subject to the Voided Recovery Act:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Puerto Rico Highways and Transportation Authority (Transportation revenue)
 
$
303

 
$
482

 
$
229

 
$
(80
)
 
$
934

 
$
961

 
CCC-
Puerto Rico Electric Power Authority
 
488

 
74

 
256

 

 
818

 
1,015

 
CC
Puerto Rico Aqueduct and Sewer Authority
 

 
307

 
96

 

 
403

 
403

 
CCC
Puerto Rico Highways and Transportation Authority (Highway revenue)
 
221

 
103

 
52

 

 
376

 
582

 
CCC
Puerto Rico Convention Center District Authority
 

 
87

 
87

 

 
174

 
174

 
CCC-
Total
 
1,012

 
1,053

 
720

 
(80
)
 
2,705

 
3,135

 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Exposures Not Previously Subject to the Voided Recovery Act:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Commonwealth of Puerto Rico - General Obligation Bonds
 
754

 
484

 
506

 

 
1,744

 
1,889

 
CCC
Puerto Rico Municipal Finance Agency
 
237

 
75

 
132

 

 
444

 
656

 
CCC-
Puerto Rico Sales Tax Financing Corporation
 
261

 

 
8

 

 
269

 
269

 
CCC+
Puerto Rico Public Buildings Authority
 
18

 
157

 
41

 

 
216

 
221

 
CCC
Government Development Bank for Puerto Rico
 

 
33

 

 

 
33

 
33

 
CCC
Puerto Rico Infrastructure Financing Authority
 

 
10

 
8

 

 
18

 
18

 
CCC-
University of Puerto Rico
 

 
1

 

 

 
1

 
1

 
CCC-
Total
 
1,270

 
760

 
695

 

 
2,725

 
3,087

 

Total net exposure to Puerto Rico
 
$
2,282

 
$
1,813

 
$
1,415

 
$
(80
)
 
$
5,430

 
$
6,222

 

1)
Net par outstanding eliminations relate to second-to-pay policies under which an Assured Guaranty insurance subsidiary guarantees an obligation already insured by another Assured Guaranty insurance subsidiary.
2)
Reported figures reflect the impact of the Radian Asset acquisition, which increased net par by $422 million; and a commutation of previously ceded Puerto Rico exposures.
3)
In July 2015, various Puerto Rico issuers made scheduled principal payments, reducing Assured Guaranty’s aggregate net par exposure by $293 million. Of that amount, $124 million related to Commonwealth General Obligation bonds and $75 million related to Puerto Rico Electric Power Authority revenue bonds.
4)
Includes exposure to Capital Appreciation Bonds with a current aggregate net par outstanding of $36 million and a fully accreted net par at maturity of $72 million. Of these amounts, current net par of $17 million and fully accreted net par at maturity of $50 million relate to the Puerto Rico Sales Tax Financing Corporation, current net par of $14 million and fully accreted net par at maturity of $15 million relate to the Puerto Rico Highway and Transportation Authority, and current net par of $4 million and fully accreted net par at maturity of $5 million relate to the Commonwealth General Obligation Bonds.


19



Assured Guaranty Ltd.
Exposure to Puerto Rico (2 of 3)
As of June 30, 2015
(dollars in millions)

Amortization Schedule of Net Par Outstanding of Puerto Rico
 
Scheduled Net Par Amortization (1)(2)(3)
 
2015 (3Q)
2015 (4Q)
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025 -2029
2030 -2034
2035 -2039
2040 -2044
2045 -2047
Total
 
 
Exposures Previously Subject to the Voided Recovery Act:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Puerto Rico Highways and Transportation Authority (Transportation revenue)
$
25

$
0

$
32

$
36

$
42

$
28

$
23

$
18

$
19

$
21

$
1

$
148

$
166

$
293

$
82

$

$
934

Puerto Rico
Electric Power Authority
75

0

20

5

4

25

42

22

22

81

78

319

121

4



818

Puerto Rico Aqueduct and Sewer Authority
14


15








2

109


2

15

246

403

Puerto Rico Highways and Transportation Authority (Highway revenue)
6


20

10

10

21

22

26

6

8

8

24

142

73



376

Puerto Rico Convention Center District Authority
11


11









19

76

57



174

Total
131

0

98

51

56

74

87

66

47

110

89

619

505

429

97

246

2,705

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Exposures Not Previously Subject to the Voided Recovery Act:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Commonwealth of Puerto Rico - General Obligation Bonds
124

0

142

95

75

82

137

16

37

15

73

286

397

265



1,744

Puerto Rico Municipal Finance Agency
57


55

47

47

44

37

33

33

16

12

59

4




444

Puerto Rico Sales Tax Financing Corporation
(1
)
0

(1
)
(1
)
(1
)
(1
)
(1
)
(2
)
(2
)
1

0

(10
)
34

(1
)
255


269

Puerto Rico Public Buildings Authority
27


8

30


5

10

13

0

7

0

60

39

17



216

Government Development Bank for Puerto Rico

33















33

Puerto Rico Infrastructure Financing Authority




2





2




2

12


18

University of Puerto Rico
0


0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

1




1

Total
207

33

204

171

123

130

183

60

68

41

85

395

475

283

267


2,725

Total net par for Puerto Rico 
$
338

$
33

$
302

$
222

$
179

$
204

$
270

$
126

$
115

$
151

$
174

$
1,014

$
980

$
712

$
364

$
246

$
5,430

1)
Reported figures reflect the impact of the Radian Asset acquisition, which increased net par by $422 million; and a commutation of previously ceded Puerto Rico exposures.
2)
In July 2015, various Puerto Rico issuers made scheduled principal payments, reducing Assured Guaranty’s aggregate net par exposure by $293 million. Of that amount, $124 million related to Commonwealth General Obligation bonds and $75 million related to Puerto Rico Electric Power Authority revenue bonds.
3)
Includes exposure to Capital Appreciation Bonds with a current aggregate net par outstanding of $36 million and a fully accreted net par at maturity of $72 million. Of these amounts, current net par of $17 million and fully accreted net par at maturity of $50 million relate to the Puerto Rico Sales Tax Financing Corporation, current net par of $14 million and fully accreted net par at maturity of $15 million relate to the Puerto Rico Highway and Transportation Authority, and current net par of $4 million and fully accreted net par at maturity of $5 million relate to the Commonwealth General Obligation Bonds.

20



Assured Guaranty Ltd.
Exposure to Puerto Rico (3 of 3)
As of June 30, 2015
(dollars in millions)

Amortization Schedule of Net Debt Service Outstanding of Puerto Rico
 
Scheduled Net Debt Service Amortization (1)(2)(3)
 
2015 (3Q)
2015 (4Q)
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025 -2029
2030 -2034
2035 -2039
2040 -2044
2045 -2047
Total
 
 
Exposures Previously Subject to the Voided Recovery Act:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Puerto Rico Highways and Transportation Authority (Transportation revenue)
$
49

$

$
80

$
82

$
86

$
69

$
63

$
57

$
57

$
58

$
37

$
314

$
294

$
354

$
89

$

$
1,689

Puerto Rico
Electric Power Authority
92

2

55

38

37

58

74

52

50

109

102

389

136

5



1,199

Puerto Rico Aqueduct and Sewer Authority
25


35

19

19

19

19

19

19

19

21

191

68

70

82

272

897

Puerto Rico Highways and Transportation Authority (Highway revenue)
17


40

29

29

39

39

42

20

21

20

86

186

78



646

Puerto Rico Convention Center District Authority
15


19

7

7

7

7

7

7

7

7

52

103

60



305

Total
198

2

229

175

178

192

202

177

153

214

187

1,032

787

567

171

272

4,736

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Exposures Not Previously Subject to the Voided Recovery Act:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Commonwealth of Puerto Rico - General Obligation Bonds
168

1

226

172

146

150

201

73

93

69

127

506

547

295



2,774

Puerto Rico Municipal Finance Agency
68


74

64

62

56

47

40

39

21

16

68

4




559

Puerto Rico Sales Tax Financing Corporation
6


13

13

13

13

13

13

13

16

15

64

107

64

283


646

Puerto Rico Public Buildings Authority
33


18

39

8

12

18

20

6

14

6

82

50

18



324

Government Development Bank for Puerto Rico
1

34















35

Puerto Rico Infrastructure Financing Authority
0


1

1

3

1

1

1

1

3

1

3

3

5

13


37

University of Puerto Rico
0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

1




1

Total
276

35

332

289

232

232

280

147

152

123

165

723

712

382

296


4,376

Total net debt service for Puerto Rico 
$
474

$
37

$
561

$
464

$
410

$
424

$
482

$
324

$
305

$
337

$
352

$
1,755

$
1,499

$
949

$
467

$
272

$
9,112

1)
Reported figures reflect the impact of the Radian Asset acquisition, which increased net debt service outstanding by $670 million; and a commutation of previously ceded Puerto Rico exposures.
2)
In July 2015, various Puerto Rico issuers made scheduled debt service payments, reducing Assured Guaranty’s aggregate net debt service exposure by $409 million. Of that amount, $166 million related to Commonwealth General Obligation bonds and $92 million related to Puerto Rico Electric Power Authority revenue bonds.
3)
Includes exposure to Capital Appreciation Bonds with a current aggregate net par outstanding of $36 million and a fully accreted net par at maturity of $72 million. Of these amounts, current net par of $17 million and fully accreted net par at maturity of $50 million relate to the Puerto Rico Sales Tax Financing Corporation, current net par of $14 million and fully accreted net par at maturity of $15 million relate to the Puerto Rico Highway and Transportation Authority, and current net par of $4 million and fully accreted net par at maturity of $5 million relate to the Commonwealth General Obligation Bonds.

21



Assured Guaranty Ltd.
Direct Pooled Corporate Obligations Profile
As of June 30, 2015
(dollars in millions)


Distribution of Direct Pooled Corporate Obligations by Ratings
 
 
 
Net Par Outstanding
 
% of Total
 
Avg. Initial Credit Enhancement
 
Avg. Current Credit Enhancement
Ratings:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
AAA
 
$
16,998

 
71.1
%
 
25.9
%
 
29.4
%
 
AA
 
2,781

 
11.6

 
43.7

 
46.1

 
A
 
1,138

 
4.8

 
47.6

 
48.0

 
BBB
 
1,323

 
5.5

 
41.5

 
35.9

 
BIG
 
1,682

 
7.0

 
35.8

 
20.3

 
 
Total exposures
 
$
23,922

 
100.0
%
 
30.3
%
 
32.1
%


Distribution of Direct Pooled Corporate Obligations by Asset Class
 
 
 
Net Par Outstanding
 
% of Total
 
Avg. Initial Credit Enhancement
 
Avg. Current Credit Enhancement
 
Avg. Rating
Asset class:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
CBOs/CLOs
 
$
10,130

 
42.3
%
 
30.5
%
 
37.7
%
 
AAA
 
Synthetic investment grade pooled corporates
 
7,118

 
29.8

 
21.7

 
19.3

 
AAA
 
Market value CDOs of corporates
 
1,113

 
4.7

 
17.0

 
15.1

 
AAA
 
Trust preferred
 
 
 


 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Banks and insurance
 
2,981

 
12.5

 
45.6

 
44.7

 
A
 
 
U.S. mortgage and real estate investment trusts
 
1,306

 
5.5

 
49.0

 
43.1

 
BBB-
 
 
European mortgage and real estate investment trusts
 
563

 
2.3

 
36.5

 
32.6

 
BBB-
 
Other pooled corporates
 
711

 
2.9

 

 

 
BBB
 
 
Total exposures
 
$
23,922

 
100.0
%
 
30.3
%
 
32.1
%
 
AA+

Please refer to the Glossary for an explanation of internal ratings, performance indicators and sectors.




22



Assured Guaranty Ltd.
U.S. RMBS Profile
As of June 30, 2015
(dollars in millions)

                
Distribution of Consolidated U.S. RMBS by Rating and Type of Exposure
Ratings:
 
Prime First Lien
 
Closed-End Second Lien
 
HELOC
 
Alt-A First Lien
 
Option ARMs
 
Subprime First Lien
 
Total Net Par Outstanding
 
AAA
 
$
10

 
$

 
$
0

 
$
294

 
$
47

 
$
1,409

 
$
1,760

 
AA
 
108

 
77

 
51

 
341

 
108

 
805

 
1,491

 
A
 
6

 
0

 

 

 
18

 
39

 
64

 
BBB
 
38

 

 
57

 
13

 
4

 
109

 
221

 
BIG
 
336

 
131

 
1,459

 
1,750

 
160

 
1,557

 
5,393

 
 
Total exposures
 
$
498

 
$
208

 
$
1,567

 
$
2,397

 
$
338

 
$
3,919

 
$
8,928



Distribution of U.S. RMBS by Year Insured and Type of Exposure
 
Year
insured:
 
Prime First Lien
 
Closed-End Second Lien
 
HELOC
 
Alt-A First Lien
 
Option ARMs
 
Subprime First Lien
 
Total Net Par Outstanding
2004 and prior
 
$
64

 
$
0

 
$
132

 
$
62

 
$
19

 
$
1,122

 
$
1,400

2005
 
143

 

 
396

 
491

 
39

 
189

 
1,258

2006
 
92

 
52

 
459

 
275

 
43

 
842

 
1,762

2007
 
199

 
156

 
581

 
1,189

 
201

 
1,697

 
4,023

2008
 

 

 

 
379

 
36

 
70

 
485

  Total exposures
 
$
498

 
$
208

 
$
1,567

 
$
2,397

 
$
338

 
$
3,919

 
$
8,928




Please refer to the Glossary for an explanation of the Company's presentation of net par outstanding and a description of performance indicators and sectors.

























23



Assured Guaranty Ltd.
Direct U.S. Commercial Real Estate Profile
As of June 30, 2015
(dollars in millions)


Distribution of Direct U.S. CMBS Insured January 1, 2005 or Later by Exposure Type, Internal Rating, Average Pool Factor, Subordination, Cumulative Losses and 60+ Day Delinquencies
                                                                                                                                                                                                 
U.S. CMBS
Rating:
 
Net Par Outstanding
 
Pool Factor
 
Subordination
 
Cumulative Losses
 
60+ Day Delinquencies
 
Number of Transactions
 
AAA
 
$
1,153

 
58.5
%
 
46.8
%
 
5.3
%
 
7.6
%
 
117

 
AA
 

 

 

 

 

 

 
A
 

 

 

 

 

 

 
BBB
 

 

 

 

 

 

 
BIG
 

 

 

 

 

 

 
 
Total exposures
 
$
1,153

 
58.5
%
 
46.8
%
 
5.3
%
 
7.6
%
 
$
117


CDOs of U.S. Commercial Real Estate(1) 
 
 
Net Par Outstanding
 
Avg. Initial Credit Enhancement
 
Avg. Current Credit Enhancement
CDOs of commercial real estate
 
$
162

 
53.4
%
 
62.2
%
CDOs of CMBS
 
430

 
7.0
%
 
7.0
%
Total Exposure
 
$
592

 
19.7
%
 
22.1
%


1)
Represents other U.S. Commercial Real Estate not included in the table above.

Please refer to the Glossary for a description of net par outstanding, performance indicators and sectors.



24



Assured Guaranty Ltd.
Below Investment Grade Exposures (1 of 5)
(dollars in millions)

BIG Exposures by Asset Exposure Type
                                                                
 
 
 
BIG Net Par Outstanding
 
 
 
June 30, 2015
 
December 31, 2014
U.S. public finance:
 
 
 
 
 
General obligation
 
$
3,371

 
$
2,537

 
Tax backed
 
2,664

 
2,033

 
Infrastructure finance
 
1,673

 
1,795

 
Municipal utilities
 
1,343

 
1,236

 
Healthcare
 
376

 
57

 
Higher education
 
268

 
14

 
Transportation
 
86

 
75

 
Housing
 
19

 
2

 
Other public finance
 
97

 
101

 
 
Total U.S. public finance
 
9,897

 
7,850

Non-U.S. public finance:
 
 
 
 
 
Infrastructure finance
 
1,264

 
1,074

 
Other public finance
 
347

 
330

 
 
Total non-U.S. public finance
 
1,611

 
1,404

Total public finance
 
$
11,508

 
$
9,254

 
 
 
 
 
 
U.S. structured finance:
 
 
 
 
 
RMBS
 
$
5,393

 
$
5,643

 
Pooled corporate obligations
 
1,233

 
1,333

 
Insurance securitizations
 
598

 
598

 
CMBS
 
430

 

 
Consumer receivables
 
320

 
356

 
Commercial receivables
 
87

 
94

 
Structured credit
 
8

 
69

 
Other structured finance
 
109

 
93

 
 
Total U.S. structured finance
 
8,178

 
8,186

Non-U.S. structured finance:
 
 
 
 
 
Pooled corporate obligations
 
543

 
623

 
RMBS
 
106

 
112

 
Commercial receivables
 
69

 
72

 
 
Total non-U.S. structured finance
 
718

 
807

Total structured finance
 
$
8,896

 
$
8,993

Total BIG net par outstanding
 
$
20,404

 
$
18,247



Please refer to the Glossary for an explanation of the Company's presentation of net par outstanding and a description of various sectors.



25



Assured Guaranty Ltd.
Below Investment Grade Exposures (2 of 5)
(dollars in millions)


Net Par Outstanding by BIG Category(1)  
 
 
 
Financial Guaranty Insurance and Credit Derivatives Surveillance Categories
 
 
 
June 30, 2015
 
December 31, 2014
Category 1
 
 
 
 
 
U.S. public finance
 
$
7,622

 
$
6,577

 
Non-U.S. public finance
 
952

 
1,402

 
U.S. structured finance
 
3,475

 
3,124

 
Non-U.S. structured finance
 
673

 
762

 
 
Total Category 1
 
12,722

 
11,865

Category 2
 
 
 
 
 
U.S. public finance
 
2,132

 
1,156

 
Non-U.S. public finance
 
659

 
2

 
U.S. structured finance
 
1,276

 
1,486

 
Non-U.S. structured finance
 
45

 
45

 
 
Total Category 2
 
4,112

 
2,689

Category 3
 
 
 
 
 
U.S. public finance
 
143

 
117

 
Non-U.S. public finance
 

 

 
U.S. structured finance
 
3,427

 
3,576

 
Non-U.S. structured finance
 

 

 
 
Total Category 3
 
3,570

 
3,693

 
 
 
BIG Total
 
$
20,404

 
$
18,247



1)
Assured Guaranty's surveillance department is responsible for monitoring our portfolio of credits and maintains a list of BIG credits. BIG Category 1: Below-investment-grade transactions showing sufficient deterioration to make future losses possible, but for which none are currently expected. BIG Category 2: Below-investment-grade transactions for which future losses are expected but for which no claims (other than liquidity claims which is a claim that the Company expects to be reimbursed within one year) have yet been paid. BIG Category 3: Below-investment-grade transactions for which future losses are expected and on which claims (other than liquidity claims) have been paid.

Please refer to the Glossary for an explanation of the Company's internal rating approach, presentation of net par outstanding and a description of various sectors.




26



Assured Guaranty Ltd.
Below Investment Grade Exposures (3 of 5)
As of June 30, 2015
(dollars in millions)


Public Finance BIG Exposures with Revenue Sources Greater Than $50 Million

 
 
 
Net Par Outstanding
 
Internal Rating
Name or description
 
 
 
 
U.S. public finance:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Puerto Rico General Obligation, Appropriations and Guarantees of the Commonwealth
 
$
2,011

 
CCC
 
 
 
Puerto Rico Highway and Transportation Authority
 
1,310

 
CCC-
 
 
 
Skyway Concession Company LLC
 
1,269

 
BB
 
 
 
Puerto Rico Electric Power Authority
 
818

 
CC
 
 
 
Puerto Rico Municipal Finance Agency
 
444

 
CCC-
 
 
 
Puerto Rico Aqueduct & Sewer Authority
 
403

 
CCC
 
 
 
Louisville Arena Authority Inc.
 
337

 
BB
 
 
 
Puerto Rico Sales Tax Financing Corporation
 
269

 
CCC+
 
 
 
Lackawanna County, Pennsylvania
 
177

 
BB-
 
 
 
Puerto Rico Convention Center District Authority
 
174

 
CCC-
 
 
 
Woonsocket (City of), Rhode Island
 
143

 
BB
 
 
 
Stockton City, California
 
117

 
D
 
 
 
Wayne County, Michigan
 
101

 
BB-
 
 
 
Ebert Metropolitan District, CO Limited Tax General Obligation Bonds
 
87

 
B+
 
 
 
City of Atlantic City, Atlantic County, New Jersey General Obligation Bonds
 
87

 
BB
 
 
 
Orlando Tourist Development Tax - Florida
 
85

 
B
 
 
 
Xenia Rural Water District, Iowa
 
77

 
B
 
 
 
Knox Hills, LLC (Certificates of Participation; Fort Knox Military Housing Privatization Project, Class 1-A and Class 1-B)
 
65

 
B
 
 
 
Pennsylvania Economic Development Financing Authority (Capitol Region Parking System)
 
60

 
BB
 
 
 
Emerson Hospital, Massachusetts
 
58

 
BB+
 
 
 
Robert Wood Johnson Health Care Corp at Hamilton
 
54

 
B+
 
 
 
Southlands Metropolitan District No. 1, Colorado
 
54

 
BB
 
 
 
Pacific Lutheran University, Washington
 
53

 
BB+
 
 
 
University of the Arts, Pennsylvania Pennsylvania Higher Educational Facilities Authority
 
53

 
BB
 
 
 
Stockton Public Financing Authority, California
 
50

 
B+
 
 
Total
 
$
8,356

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Non-U.S. public finance:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Reliance Rail Finance Pty. Limited
 
$
657

 
BB
 
 
 
M6 Duna Autopalya Koncesszios Zartkoruen Mukodo Reszvenytarsasag
 
291

 
BB-
 
 
 
Valencia Fair
 
248

 
BB-
 
 
 
Autovia de la Mancha, S.A.
 
120

 
BB-
 
 
 
CountyRoute (A130) plc
 
119

 
BB-
 
 
 
Metropolitano de Porto Lease and Sublease of Railroad Equipment
 
56

 
B+
 
 
 
Alte Liebe I Limited (Wind Farm)
 
54

 
BB
 
 
Total
 
$
1,545

 
 
Total
 
$
9,901

 
 



Please refer to the Glossary for an explanation of the Company's internal rating approach, presentation of net par outstanding and a description of various sectors.



27



Assured Guaranty Ltd.
Below Investment Grade Exposures (4 of 5)
As of June 30, 2015
(dollars in millions)

Structured Finance BIG Exposures Greater Than $50 Million
 
 
BIG Net Par Outstanding
 
Internal Rating
 
Current Credit Enhancement
 
60+ Day Delinquencies
Name or description
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
U.S. structured finance:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
RMBS:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Option One 2007-FXD2
 
$
288

 
CCC
 
0.0%
 
21.0%
Deutsche Alt-A Securities Mortgage Loan 2007-2
 
268

 
BB
 
0.0%
 
22.6%
MABS 2007-NCW
 
250

 
CCC
 
4.2%
 
44.1%
Countrywide HELOC 2006-I
 
248

 
BB
 
0.0%
 
2.5%
Private Residential Mortgage Transaction
 
211

 
CCC
 
11.5%
 
22.3%
Nomura Asset Accept. Corp. 2007-1
 
201

 
CCC
 
0.0%
 
31.2%
MortgageIT Securities Corp. Mortgage Loan 2007-2
 
199

 
BB
 
0.0%
 
16.0%
Soundview 2007-WMC1
 
172

 
CCC
 
—%
 
47.1%
Countrywide Home Equity Loan Trust 2007-D
 
153

 
B
 
0.0%
 
2.8%
Countrywide HELOC 2005-D
 
148

 
B
 
0.0%
 
3.6%
Countrywide Home Equity Loan Trust 2005-J
 
143

 
BB
 
0.0%
 
3.3%
New Century 2005-A
 
136

 
CCC
 
9.2%
 
24.0%
Countrywide HELOC 2006-F
 
134

 
BB
 
0.0%
 
4.7%
Private Residential Mortgage Transaction
 
124

 
CCC
 
5.8%
 
22.2%
Countrywide HELOC 2007-A
 
119

 
BB
 
0.0%
 
2.6%
Countrywide HELOC 2007-B
 
118

 
BB
 
0.0%
 
2.7%
Deutsche Alt-A Securities Mortgage Loan 2007-2
 
118

 
BB
 
0.0%
 
22.6%
CSAB 2006-3
 
104

 
CCC
 
0.0%
 
41.4%
GMACM 2004-HE3
 
100

 
CCC
 
0.0%
 
5.2%
IndyMac 2007-H1 HELOC
 
98

 
BB
 
0.0%
 
2.4%
Soundview Home Loan Trust 2008-1
 
70

 
CCC
 
7.9%
 
25.2%
Deutsche Alt-A Securities Mortgage Loan 2007-2
 
65

 
BB
 
0.0%
 
22.6%
Countrywide HELOC 2005-C
 
65

 
CCC
 
0.0%
 
7.0%
IMPAC CMB Trust Series 2007-A Class M-1
 
59

 
BB
 
9.7%
 
17.6%
MASTR Asset-Backed Securities Trust 2005-NC2
 
54

 
CCC
 
—%
 
20.5%
CSAB 2006-2
 
53

 
CCC
 
0.0%
 
37.5%
Terwin Mortgage Trust 2005-16HE
 
52

 
CCC
 
—%
 
20.1%
Total RMBS
 
$
3,750

 

 
 
 
 


Please refer to the Glossary for the Company's internal rating approach, presentation of net par outstanding and a description of performance indicators and sectors.

28



Assured Guaranty Ltd.
Below Investment Grade Exposures (5 of 5)
As of June 30, 2015
(dollars in millions)

Structured Finance BIG Exposures Greater Than $50 Million (continued)
 
 
BIG Net Par Outstanding
 
Internal Rating
 
Current Credit Enhancement
Name or description
 
 
 
 
 
 
U.S. structured finance:
 
 
 
 
 
 
Non-RMBS:
 
 
 
 
 
 
Aphex Capital NSCR 2006-2 LTD
 
$
430

 
BB
 
7.0%
Orkney Re II, Plc
 
423

 
CCC
 
N/A
Zohar II 2005-1 Limited CDO
 
368

 
B-
 
12.6%
Taberna Preferred Funding III, Ltd.
 
220

 
B
 
29.0%
ALESCO Preferred Funding XVI, Ltd.
 
215

 
BB
 
18.6%
Ballantyne Re Plc
 
175

 
CC
 
N/A
Taberna Preferred Funding II, Ltd.
 
172

 
CCC
 
28.6%
US Capital Funding IV, LTD
 
134

 
CCC
 
15.0%
Taberna Preferred Funding VI, Ltd.
 
125

 
BB-
 
24.7%
NRG Peaker1
 
100

 
BB
 
N/A
National Collegiate Trust Series 2006-2
 
68

 
CCC
 
N/A
National Collegiate Trust Series 2007-4
 
57

 
CCC
 
N/A
Conseco Finance Manufactured Housing Series 2001-2
 
53

 
CCC
 
15.4%
Subtotal non-RMBS
 
$
2,540

 
 
 
 
Subtotal U.S. structured finance
 
$
6,290

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Non-U.S. structured finance:
 
 
 
 
 
 
Gleneagles Funding Ltd.
 
$
231

 
BB
 
N/A
Private Pooled Corporate Transaction
 
88

 
BB
 
N/A
Private Pooled Corporate Transaction
 
64

 
BB
 
N/A
Babcock & Brown Air Funding I Ltd. Series 2007-1
 
63

 
BB
 
N/A
FHB 8.95% 2016
 
57

 
BB-
 
N/A
Subtotal Non-U.S. structured finance
 
$
503

 
 
 
 
Total
 
$
6,793

 
 
 
 


1)
In accordance with the terms of certain credit derivative contracts, the referenced obligations in such contracts have been delivered to the Company and therefore are included in the investment portfolio. Net par shown is net of $36 million of ceded par. The Company holds 100% of the bonds referenced in this transaction and reports them in the investment portfolio.



Please refer to the Glossary for the Company's internal rating approach, presentation of net par outstanding and a description of performance indicators and sectors.

29



Assured Guaranty Ltd.
Largest Exposures by Sector (1 of 4)
As of June 30, 2015
(dollars in millions)

50 Largest U.S. Public Finance Exposures by Revenue Source
                                                                                          
Credit names:
 
Net Par Outstanding
 
Internal Rating
New Jersey (State of)
 
$
4,818

 
A-
California (State of)
 
3,004

 
A
New York (City of) New York
 
2,363

 
AA-
Illinois (State of)
 
2,148

 
A-
Puerto Rico General Obligation, Appropriations and Guarantees of the Commonwealth
 
2,011

 
CCC
Chicago (City of) Illinois
 
1,971

 
BBB+
New York (State of)
 
1,934

 
A+
Massachusetts (Commonwealth of)
 
1,838

 
AA
Miami-Dade County Florida Aviation Authority - Miami International Airport
 
1,815

 
A
Houston, Texas Water and Sewer Authority
 
1,749

 
AA-
Los Angeles, California Unified School District
 
1,703

 
AA-
New York Metropolitan Transportation Authority
 
1,684

 
A
Philadelphia (City of) Pennsylvania
 
1,608

 
BBB+
Pennsylvania (Commonwealth of)
 
1,587

 
A+
Wisconsin (State of)
 
1,497

 
A+
Port Authority of New York and New Jersey
 
1,471

 
AA-
Chicago, Illinois Public Schools
 
1,451

 
BBB+
Chicago-O'Hare International Airport
 
1,447

 
A-
Illinois Toll Highway Authority
 
1,413

 
AA
Georgia Board of Regents
 
1,337

 
A
Puerto Rico Highway and Transportation Authority
 
1,310

 
CCC-
Skyway Concession Company LLC
 
1,269

 
BB
Massachusetts (Commonwealth of) Water Resources
 
1,265

 
AA
Michigan (State of)
 
1,262

 
A+
Miami-Dade County Florida School Board
 
1,258

 
A-
Washington (State of)
 
1,249

 
AA
Arizona (State of)
 
1,229

 
A+
Pennsylvania Turnpike Commission
 
1,172

 
A-
Philadelphia School District, Pennsylvania
 
1,158

 
A
North Texas Tollway Authority
 
1,154

 
A
Long Island Power Authority
 
1,145

 
A-
Detroit Michigan Sewer
 
1,048

 
BBB
Los Angeles, California Department of Water & Power - Electric Revenue Bonds
 
1,027

 
AA-
New York City Municipal Water Finance Authority
 
946

 
AA
Garden State Preservation Trust, New Jersey Open Space & Farmland
 
919

 
AA
Detroit Michigan Water Supply System
 
878

 
BBB
San Diego Unified School District, California
 
859

 
AA
Kentucky (Commonwealth of)
 
859

 
A+
Orlando-Orange County Expressway Authority, Florida
 
854

 
A+
Atlanta Georgia Water & Sewer System
 
830

 
A-
District of Columbia
 
829

 
AA-
Puerto Rico Electric Power Authority (PREPA)
 
818

 
CC
Miami-Dade County, Florida Water & Sewer
 
810

 
A+
California State University System Trustee
 
808

 
A+
Louisiana (State of) Gas and Fuel Tax
 
790

 
AA
Broward County Florida School Board
 
772

 
A+
Metro Washington Airport Authority
 
761

 
A+
Dade County, Florida
 
759

 
A+
Oglethorpe Power Corporation, Georgia
 
719

 
BBB+
Nassau County, New York
 
701

 
A-
   Total top 50 U.S. public finance exposures
 
$
68,307

 
 

Please refer to the Glossary for an explanation of net par outstanding, internal ratings and sectors.

30



Assured Guaranty Ltd.
Largest Exposures by Sector (2 of 4)
As of June 30, 2015
(dollars in millions)

50 Largest U.S. Structured Finance Exposures
Credit Name
 
Net Par Outstanding
 
Internal Rating
 
Credit Enhancement
Fortress Credit Opportunities I, LP.
 
$
969

 
AA
 
36.0%
Stone Tower Credit Funding
 
835

 
AAA
 
15.1%
Private Other Structured Finance Transaction
 
800

 
AA
 
N/A
Synthetic Investment Grade Pooled Corporate CDO
 
767

 
AAA
 
14.8%
Synthetic Investment Grade Pooled Corporate CDO
 
744

 
AAA
 
26.7%
Synthetic Investment Grade Pooled Corporate CDO
 
655

 
AAA
 
14.9%
Wachovia Super Senior CDO 2007-1
 
563

 
AAA
 
23.4%
Synthetic Investment Grade Pooled Corporate CDO
 
516

 
AAA
 
14.3%
Private US Insurance Securitization
 
500

 
AA
 
N/A
Shenandoah Trust Capital I Term Securities
 
484

 
A+
 
N/A
SLM Private Credit Student Trust 2007-A
 
450

 
A-
 
17.9%
MS SS UK 2007-1
 
450

 
AAA
 
17.7%
BNP 2007-1 10 Year Super Senior CDO
 
440

 
AAA
 
21.2%
Aphex Capital NSCR 2006-2 LTD
 
430

 
BB
 
7.0%
LIICA Holdings, LLC
 
428

 
AA
 
N/A
Orkney Re II, Plc
 
423

 
CCC
 
N/A
Denali CLO VII, LTD.
 
412

 
AAA
 
22.8%
SLM Private Credit Student Loan Trust 2007-6
 
392

 
AAA
 
4.2%
Eastland CLO, LTD
 
388

 
AAA
 
46.5%
Synthetic Investment Grade Pooled Corporate CDO
 
380

 
AAA
 
29.2%
Zohar II 2005-1 Limited CDO
 
368

 
B-
 
12.6%
SLM Private Credit Student Loan Trust 2006-C
 
356

 
A-
 
19.1%
Synthetic Investment Grade Pooled Corporate CDO
 
345

 
AAA
 
16.3%
Churchill Financial Cayman
 
325

 
AAA
 
48.7%
Synthetic Investment Grade Pooled Corporate CDO
 
312

 
AAA
 
14.2%
Cent CDO 15 Limited
 
303

 
AAA
 
18.6%
Option One 2007-FXD2
 
288

 
CCC
 
0.0%
Synthetic Investment Grade Pooled Corporate CDO
 
283

 
AAA
 
30.3%
Grayson CLO
 
281

 
AAA
 
36.6%
Cent CDO 12 Limited
 
278

 
AAA
 
25.0%
Synthetic Investment Grade Pooled Corporate CDO
 
270

 
AAA
 
26.9%
Deutsche Alt-A Securities Mortgage Loan 2007-2
 
268

 
BB
 
0.0%
MABS 2007-NCW
 
250

 
CCC
 
4.2%
Bergen, LLC
 
250

 
AA
 
N/A
Countrywide HELOC 2006-I
 
248

 
BB
 
0.0%
ALESCO Preferred Funding XIV
 
240

 
A+
 
41.3%
KKR Financial CLO 2007-1
 
232

 
AAA
 
62.0%
Taberna Preferred Funding IV, Ltd.
 
227

 
BBB-
 
34.2%
Phoenix CLO II
 
222

 
AAA
 
33.6%
Taberna Preferred Funding III, Ltd.
 
220

 
B
 
29.0%
Timberlake Financial, LLC Floating Insured Notes
 
217

 
BBB-
 
N/A
ALESCO Preferred Funding XVI, Ltd.
 
215

 
BB
 
18.6%
Private Residential Mortgage Transaction
 
211

 
CCC
 
11.5%
Kingsland V
 
207

 
AAA
 
31.7%
ALESCO Preferred Funding X LTD
 
207

 
AA
 
52.9%
UBS 2007-1 CDO
 
204

 
AAA
 
10.4%
UBS 2007-2 CDO
 
204

 
AAA
 
9.2%
Nomura Asset Accept. Corp. 2007-1
 
201

 
CCC
 
0.0%
Private Other Structured Finance Transaction
 
200

 
AAA
 
N/A
MortgageIT Securities Corp. Mortgage Loan 2007-2
 
198

 
BB
 
0.0%
   Total top 50 U.S. structured finance exposures
 
$
18,656

 
 
 
 


Please refer to the Glossary for the Company's internal rating approach, presentation of net par outstanding and a description of various sectors.

31



Assured Guaranty Ltd.
Largest Exposures by Sector (3 of 4)
As of June 30, 2015
(dollars in millions)

25 Largest Non-U.S. Exposures by Revenue Source
Credit Name
Country
 
Net Par Outstanding
 
Internal Rating
Quebec Province
Canada
 
$
2,317

 
A+
Thames Water Utility Finance PLC
United Kingdom
 
1,580

 
A-
Channel Link Enterprises Finance PLC
France, United Kingdom
 
968

 
BBB
Southern Gas Networks PLC
United Kingdom
 
939

 
BBB
Capital Hospitals (Issuer) PLC
United Kingdom
 
854

 
BBB-
Societe des Autoroutes du Nord et de l'Est de France S.A.
France
 
812

 
BBB+
Southern Water Services Limited
United Kingdom
 
776

 
A-
Sydney Airport Finance Company
Australia
 
726

 
BBB
International Infrastructure Pool
United Kingdom
 
717

 
AA
Reliance Rail Finance Pty. Limited
Australia
 
657

 
BB
International Infrastructure Pool
United Kingdom
 
645

 
AA
International Infrastructure Pool
United Kingdom
 
645

 
AA
Verbund - Lease and Sublease of Hydro-Electric equipment
Austria
 
627

 
AAA
Campania Region - Healthcare receivable
Italy
 
590

 
BBB-
Central Nottinghamshire Hospitals PLC
United Kingdom
 
554

 
BBB
Scotland Gas Networks Plc (A2)
United Kingdom
 
542

 
BBB
NewHospitals (St Helens & Knowsley) Finance PLC
United Kingdom
 
514

 
BBB
Envestra Limited
Australia
 
501

 
BBB
The Hospital Company (QAH Portsmouth) Limited
United Kingdom
 
490

 
BBB
Integrated Accomodation Services PLC
United Kingdom
 
459

 
BBB+
Yorkshire Water Services Finance Plc
United Kingdom
 
446

 
A-
Dali Capital PLC-Northumbrian Water (Swap)
United Kingdom
 
438

 
BBB+
A28 Motorway
France
 
422

 
BBB-
Octagon Healthcare Funding PLC
United Kingdom
 
418

 
BBB
Wessex Water PLC
United Kingdom
 
386

 
BBB+
Total top 25 non-U.S. exposures
 
 
$
18,023

 
 


Please refer to the Glossary for an explanation of net par outstanding, internal ratings and sectors.



32



Assured Guaranty Ltd.
Largest Exposures by Sector (4 of 4)
As of June 30, 2015
(dollars in millions)

10 Largest U.S. Residential Mortgage Servicer Exposures
Servicer:
 
Net Par Outstanding
Ocwen Loan Servicing, LLC1
 
$
2,394

Bank of America, N.A.2
 
1,833

Specialized Loan Servicing, LLC
 
1,752

Wells Fargo Bank NA
 
1,498

JPMorgan Chase Bank
 
347

Select Portfolio Servicing, Inc.
 
338

Nationstar Mortgage LLC
 
153

Residential Credit Solutions, Inc.
 
118

Banco Popular de Puerto Rico
 
92

Green Tree Servicing LLC
 
60

Total top 10 U.S. residential mortgage servicer exposures
 
$
8,585


1) Includes Homeward Residential Inc.

2)
Includes Countrywide Home Loans Servicing LP.


10 Largest U.S. Healthcare Exposures
Credit Name:
 
Net Par Outstanding
 
Internal Rating
 
State
Methodist Healthcare
 
$
449

 
A+
 
TN
MultiCare Health System
 
396

 
AA-
 
WA
CHRISTUS Health
 
374

 
A
 
TX
Children's National Medical Center
 
356

 
A-
 
DC
Bon Secours Health System Obligated Group
 
327

 
A-
 
MD
Catholic Health Initiatives
 
325

 
A-
 
CO
Carolina HealthCare System
 
319

 
AA-
 
NC
Asante Health System
 
292

 
A+
 
OR
Catholic Health Partners
 
287

 
A+
 
OH
Dignity Health, California
 
284

 
A
 
CA
Total top 10 U.S. healthcare exposures
 
$
3,409

 
 
 
 


Please refer to the Glossary for the Company's internal rating approach and presentation of net par outstanding.





33



Assured Guaranty Ltd.
Rollforward of Net Expected Loss and LAE to be Paid
(dollars in millions)
Rollforward of Net Expected Loss and LAE to be Paid for the Three Months Ended June 30, 2015
Financial Guaranty Insurance Contracts and Credit Derivatives
 
Net Expected
Loss to be
Paid 
(Recovered)
as of
March 31, 2015
 
Net Expected
Loss to be Paid 
(Recovered)
on Radian Asset portfolio
as of April 1, 2015
 
Economic Loss Development During 2Q-15(1)
 
(Paid) Recovered Losses During 2Q-15
 
Net Expected
Loss to be
Paid 
(Recovered)
as of
June 30, 2015
Public Finance:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
U.S. public finance
 
$
310

 
$
81

 
$
226

 
$
(4
)
 
$
613

Non-U.S public finance
 
42

 
4

 
(2
)
 

 
44

Public Finance
 
352

 
85

 
224

 
(4
)
 
657

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
U.S. RMBS
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
First lien:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Prime first lien
 
3

 

 
(1
)
 
(1
)
 
1

Alt-A first lien
 
289

 
7

 
(16
)
 
(15
)
 
265

Option ARMs
 
(16
)
 
0

 
(3
)
 
1

 
(18
)
Subprime first lien
 
293

 
(4
)
 
(6
)
 
(10
)
 
273

Total first lien
 
569

 
3

 
(26
)
 
(25
)
 
521

Second lien:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Closed-end second lien
 
11

 

 
(3
)
 
1

 
9

HELOC
 
(10
)
 
1

 
(3
)
 
6

 
(6
)
Total second lien
 
1

 
1

 
(6
)
 
7

 
3

Total U.S. RMBS
 
570

 
4

 
(32
)
 
(18
)
 
524

Triple-X life insurance transactions
 
165

 

 
2

 
(2
)
 
165

Trust preferred securities (TruPS)
 
14

 

 
(4
)
 

 
10

Student loans
 
62

 

 
1

 
(5
)
 
58

Other structured finance
 
(9
)
 
101

 
1

 
3

 
96

Structured Finance
 
802

 
105

 
(32
)
 
(22
)
 
853

Total
 
$
1,154

 
$
190

 
$
192

 
$
(26
)
 
$
1,510


Rollforward of Net Expected Loss and LAE to be Paid for the Six Months Ended June 30, 2015
Financial Guaranty Insurance Contracts and Credit Derivatives
 
Net Expected
Loss to be
Paid 
(Recovered)
as of
December 30, 2014
 
Net Expected
Loss to be Paid 
(Recovered)
on Radian Asset portfolio
as of April 1, 2015
 
Economic Loss Development During 2015(1)
 
(Paid) Recovered Losses During 2015
 
Net Expected
Loss to be
Paid 
(Recovered)
as of
June 30, 2015
Public Finance:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
U.S. public finance
 
$
303

 
$
81

 
$
235

 
$
(6
)
 
$
613

Non-U.S public finance
 
45

 
4

 
(5
)
 

 
44

Public Finance
 
348

 
85

 
230

 
(6
)
 
657

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
U.S. RMBS
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
First lien:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Prime first lien
 
4

 

 
(1
)
 
(2
)
 
1

Alt-A first lien
 
304

 
7

 
(21
)
 
(25
)
 
265

Option ARMs
 
(16
)
 
0

 
1

 
(3
)
 
(18
)
Subprime first lien
 
303

 
(4
)
 
(7
)
 
(19
)
 
273

Total first lien
 
595

 
3

 
(28
)
 
(49
)
 
521

Second lien:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Closed-end second lien
 
8

 

 
(2
)
 
3

 
9

HELOC
 
(19
)
 
1

 
2

 
10

 
(6
)
Total second lien
 
(11
)
 
1

 
0

 
13

 
3

Total U.S. RMBS
 
584

 
4

 
(28
)
 
(36
)
 
524

Triple-X life insurance transactions
 
161

 

 
7

 
(3
)
 
165

TruPS
 
23

 

 
(13
)
 

 
10

Student loans
 
68

 

 
(5
)
 
(5
)
 
58

Other structured finance
 
(15
)
 
101

 
(2
)
 
12

 
96

Structured Finance
 
821

 
105

 
(41
)
 
(32
)
 
853

Total
 
$
1,169

 
$
190

 
$
189

 
$
(38
)
 
$
1,510


1)    Includes the effect of changes in the Company's estimate of future recovery on representations and warranties (R&W).

34



Assured Guaranty Ltd.
Financial Guaranty Insurance and Credit Derivative U.S. RMBS R&W Benefit Development
(dollars in millions)
 
Financial Guaranty Insurance and Credit Derivatives U.S. RMBS Benefit Development for the Three Months Ended June 30, 2015
 
 
Future Net R&W Benefit at
March 31 , 2015
 
R&W benefit of Radian Asset as of
April 1, 2015
 
R&W Economic Loss Development During 2Q-15
 
R&W (Recovered) During 2Q-15
 
Future Net R&W Benefit at
June 30, 2015
Financial guaranty insurance:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Prime first lien
 
$
1

 
$

 
$

 
$

 
$
1

Alt-A first lien
 
19

 

 
1

 
(1
)
 
19

Option ARMs
 
(20
)
 

 
6

 
(19
)
 
(33
)
Subprime first lien
 
87

 
1

 
(4
)
 
(3
)
 
81

Closed-end second lien
 
83

 
1

 
2

 
(3
)
 
83

Subtotal
 
170

 
2

 
5

 
(26
)
 
151

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Credit derivatives:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Alt-A first lien
 
75

 

 
(1
)
 

 
74

Subtotal
 
75

 

 
(1
)
 

 
74

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Total
 
$
245

 
$
2

 
$
4

 
$
(26
)
 
$
225



Financial Guaranty Insurance and Credit Derivatives U.S. RMBS Benefit Development for the Six Months Ended June 30, 2015
 
 
Future Net R&W Benefit at December 31, 2014
 
R&W benefit of Radian Asset as of
April 1, 2015
 
R&W Economic Loss Development During 2015
 
R&W (Recovered) During 2015
 
Future Net R&W Benefit at
June 30, 2015
Financial guaranty insurance:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Prime first lien
 
$
2

 
$

 
$
(1
)
 
$

 
$
1

Alt-A first lien
 
20

 

 
1

 
(2
)
 
19

Option ARMs
 
15

 

 
(14
)
 
(34
)
 
(33
)
Subprime first lien
 
109

 
1

 
(23
)
 
(6
)
 
81

Closed-end second lien
 
85

 
1

 
1

 
(4
)
 
83

Subtotal
 
231

 
2

 
(36
)
 
(46
)
 
151

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Credit derivatives:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Alt-A first lien
 
86

 

 
(11
)
 
(1
)
 
74

Subtotal
 
86

 

 
(11
)
 
(1
)
 
74

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Total
 
$
317

 
$
2

 
$
(47
)
 
$
(47
)
 
$
225




1)
The number of risks subject to R&W recovery is 30, with related net debt service of $2.0 billion as of June 30, 2015 compared to 29 with net debt service of $2.1 billion as of December 31, 2014. Included in these amounts is net debt service related to transactions not yet subject to an agreement. A risk represents the aggregate of the financial guaranty policies that share the same revenue source for purposes of making Debt Service payments.


Please refer to the Glossary for an explanation of the presentation of net debt service outstanding and of the various sectors.

35



Assured Guaranty Ltd.
Losses Incurred
As of June 30, 2015
(dollars in millions)


Financial Guaranty Insurance Contracts and Credit Derivatives
 
 Total Net Par Outstanding for BIG Transactions
 
2Q-15 Losses Incurred
 
2015 Losses Incurred
 
Net Expected Loss to be Expensed
Public Finance:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
U.S. public finance
 
$
9,897

 
$
196

 
$
209

 
$
180

Non-U.S public finance
 
1,611

 
(1
)
 
4

 
15

Public Finance
 
11,508

 
195

 
213

 
195

Structured Finance:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
U.S. RMBS:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
First lien:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Prime first lien
 
336

 
(1
)
 

 
0

Alt-A first lien
 
1,750

 
(11
)
 
(20
)
 
45

Option ARMs
 
160

 
(1
)
 
1

 
22

Subprime
 
1,557

 
(3
)
 
(4
)
 
77

Total first lien
 
3,803

 
(16
)
 
(23
)
 
144

Second lien:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Closed-end second lien
 
131

 
(1
)
 

 
41

HELOCs
 
1,459

 
2

 
11

 
101

Total second lien
 
1,590

 
1

 
11

 
142

Total U.S. RMBS
 
5,393

 
(15
)
 
(12
)
 
286

Triple-X life insurance transactions
 
598

 
1

 
7

 
15

TruPS
 
866

 
(4
)
 
(11
)
 
0

Student loans
 
167

 
1

 
(5
)
 
3

Other structured finance
 
1,872

 
2

 
0

 
88

Structured Finance
 
8,896

 
(15
)
 
(21
)
 
392

Subtotal
 
20,404

 
180

 
192

 
587

Non-GAAP adjustments
 

 
(1
)
 
(7
)
 
(166
)
Total
 
$
20,404

 
$
179

 
$
185

 
$
421



Please refer to the Glossary for an explanation of the presentation of net par outstanding and of the various sectors.



36



Assured Guaranty Ltd.
Summary Financial and Statistical Data
(dollars in millions, except per share amounts)
 
 
As of and for Six Months Ended June 30, 2015
 
Year Ended December 31,
 
 
 
2014
 
2013
 
2012
 
2011
GAAP Summary Income Statement Data
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net earned premiums
 
$
361

 
$
570

 
$
752

 
$
853

 
$
920

 
Net investment income
 
199

 
403

 
393

 
404

 
396

 
Realized gains and other settlements on credit derivatives
 
29

 
23

 
(42
)
 
(108
)
 
6

 
Total expenses
 
389

 
463

 
466

 
822

 
776

 
Income (loss) before income taxes
 
675

 
1,531

 
1,142

 
132

 
1,029

 
Net income (loss)
 
498

 
1,088

 
808

 
110

 
773

 
Net income (loss) per diluted share
 
3.23

 
6.26

 
4.30

 
0.57

 
4.16

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
GAAP Summary Balance Sheet Data
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Total investments and cash
 
$
11,706

 
$
11,459

 
$
10,969

 
$
11,223

 
$
11,314

 
Total assets
 
15,479

 
14,925

 
16,287

 
17,242

 
17,709

 
Unearned premium reserve
 
4,389

 
4,261

 
4,595

 
5,207

 
5,963

 
Loss and LAE reserve
 
996

 
799

 
592

 
601

 
679

 
Long-term debt
 
1,305

 
1,303

 
816

 
836

 
1,038

 
Shareholders’ equity
 
5,806

 
5,758

 
5,115

 
4,994

 
4,652

 
Shareholders’ equity per share
 
39.16

 
36.37

 
28.07

 
25.74

 
25.52

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Non-GAAP Financial Measures
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Operating income
 
$
418

 
$
491

 
$
609

 
$
535

 
$
601

 
Operating income per diluted share
 
2.71

 
2.83

 
3.25

 
2.81

 
3.24

 
Operating shareholder's equity
 
6,011

 
5,933

 
6,164

 
5,830

 
5,201

 
Operating shareholder's equity per share
 
40.55

 
37.48

 
33.83

 
30.05

 
28.54

 
Adjusted book value
 
8,701

 
8,495

 
9,033

 
9,151

 
8,987

 
PVP
 
62

 
168

 
141

 
210

 
243

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Other Financial Information (GAAP Basis)
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net debt service outstanding (end of period)
 
$
584,428

 
$
609,622

 
$
690,535

 
$
780,356

 
$
844,447

 
Gross debt service outstanding (end of period)
 
611,993

 
646,722

 
737,380

 
833,098

 
934,914

 
Net par outstanding (end of period)
 
390,384

 
403,729

 
459,107

 
518,772

 
556,830

 
Gross par outstanding (end of period)
 
407,839

 
426,705

 
487,895

 
550,908

 
613,124

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Other Financial Information (Statutory Basis)(1)
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net debt service outstanding (end of period)
 
$
550,570

 
$
583,598

 
$
663,797

 
$
756,044

 
$
828,327

 
Gross debt service outstanding (end of period)
 
576,824

 
619,475

 
709,000

 
807,420

 
916,501

 
Net par outstanding (end of period)
 
359,215

 
379,714

 
434,597

 
496,237

 
541,882

 
Gross par outstanding (end of period)
 
375,445

 
401,552

 
461,845

 
527,126

 
593,072

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Consolidated qualified statutory capital
 
6,885

 
6,472

 
6,136

 
5,943

 
5,688

 
Consolidated policyholders' surplus and reserves
 
11,094

 
10,623

 
10,454

 
10,288

 
10,626

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Ratios:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net par outstanding to qualified statutory capital
 
52
:1
 
59
:1
 
71
:1
 
83:1

 
95:1

 
 
Capital ratio(2)
 
80
:1
 
90
:1
 
108
:1
 
127:1

 
145:1

 
 
Financial resources ratio(2)
 
44
:1
 
48
:1
 
55
:1
 
61:1

 
65:1

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Gross debt service written:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Public finance - U.S.
 
$
12,479

 
$
20,804

 
$
15,559

 
$
25,252

 
$
26,630

 
 
Public finance - non-U.S.
 

 
233

 
674

 
40

 
208

 
 
Structured finance - U.S.
 
263

 
423

 
297

 
623

 
1,731

 
 
Structured finance - non-U.S.
 
6

 
387

 

 

 

 
Total gross debt service written
 
$
12,748

 
$
21,847

 
$
16,530

 
$
25,915

 
$
28,569

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net debt service written
 
$
12,748

 
$
21,847

 
$
16,497

 
$
25,915

 
$
28,569

 
Net par written
 
8,289

 
13,171

 
9,331

 
16,816

 
16,892

 
Gross par written
 
8,289

 
13,171

 
9,350

 
16,816

 
16,892

1) Statutory amounts prepared on a consolidated basis. The NAIC Annual Statements for U.S. Domiciled Insurance Subsidiaries are prepared on a stand-alone basis.
2)
See page 7 for additional detail on claims-paying resources.

Please refer to the explanation of Non-GAAP Financial Measures set forth at the end of this Financial Supplement.
Please refer to the Glossary for an explanation of the presentation of net debt service and net par outstanding and of the various sectors.

37



Glossary

Net Par Outstanding and Internal Ratings
Net par outstanding is insured par exposure, net of reinsurance cessions. Unless otherwise indicated, GAAP net par outstanding amounts exclude amounts related to securities the Company has purchased for loss mitigation purposes.

Internal Rating utilizes the Company’s ratings scale, which is similar to that used by the nationally recognized statistical rating organizations; however, the ratings in the tables may not be the same as ratings assigned by any such rating agency.

Performance Indicators
The performance information described below is obtained from third parties and/or provided by the trustee and may be subject to revision as updated or additional information are obtained:

60+ Day Delinquencies are defined as loans that are greater than 60 days delinquent and all loans that are in foreclosure, bankruptcy or real estate owned divided by current collateral balance.

Average Credit Enhancement is intended to provide a measure of the amount of equity and/or subordinated tranches that are junior in the capital structure to Assured Guaranty’s exposure, expressed as a percentage of the total transaction size, and reflects any reduction of that credit support resulting from defaults or other factors. For transactions where excess spread may be available to absorb certain losses, the amounts shown do not include any benefit from excess spread. The calculation methodologies differ for the various asset classes to reflect differences in transaction structures in order to provide a measure that management believes is comparable across asset classes. Some asset classes may not have subordinated tranches so they are excluded from the weighted averages.

Cumulative Losses are defined as net charge-offs on the underlying loan collateral divided by the original collateral balance.

Pool Factor is the percentage of the current collateral balance divided by the original collateral balance of the transactions at inception.

Subordination represents the sum of subordinate tranches and overcollateralization, expressed as a percentage of total transaction size, and does not include any benefit from excess spread collections that may be used to absorb losses. Many of the closed-end second lien RMBS transactions insured by the Company have unique structures whereby the collateral may be written down for losses without a corresponding write-down of the obligations insured by the Company. Many of these transactions are currently undercollateralized, with the principal amount of collateral being less than the principal amount of the obligation insured by the Company. The Company is not required to pay principal shortfalls until legal maturity (rather than making timely principal payments), and takes the undercollateralization into account when estimating expected losses for these transactions.

Sectors
Below are brief descriptions of selected types of public and structured finance obligations that the Company insures and reinsures. For a more complete description, please refer to Assured Guaranty Ltd.’s Annual Report on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2014.

Public Finance:
General Obligation Bonds are full faith and credit bonds that are issued by states, their political subdivisions and other municipal issuers, and are supported by the general obligation of the issuer to pay from available funds and by a pledge of the issuer to levy ad valorem taxes in an amount sufficient to provide for the full payment of the bonds.

Tax-Backed Bonds are obligations that are supported by the issuer from specific and discrete sources of taxation. They include tax-backed revenue bonds, general fund obligations and lease revenue bonds. Tax-backed obligations may be secured by a lien on specific pledged tax revenues, such as a gasoline or excise tax, or incrementally from growth in property tax revenue associated with growth in property values. These obligations also include obligations secured by special assessments levied against property owners and often benefit from issuer covenants to enforce collections of such assessments and to foreclose on delinquent properties. Lease revenue bonds typically are general fund obligations of a municipality or other governmental authority that are subject to annual appropriation or abatement; projects financed and subject to such lease payments ordinarily include real estate or equipment serving an essential public purpose. Bonds in this category also include moral obligations of municipalities or governmental authorities.

Municipal Utility Bonds are obligations of all forms of municipal utilities, including electric, water and sewer utilities and resource recovery revenue bonds. These utilities may be organized in various forms, including municipal enterprise systems, authorities or joint action agencies.

Transportation Bonds include a wide variety of revenue-supported bonds, such as bonds for airports, ports, tunnels, municipal parking facilities, toll roads and toll bridges.

Healthcare Bonds are obligations of healthcare facilities, including community-based hospitals and systems, as well as of health maintenance organizations and long-term care facilities.


38



Glossary (continued)

Sectors (continued)

Higher Education Bonds are obligations secured by revenue collected by either public or private secondary schools, colleges and universities. Such revenue can encompass all of an institution’s revenue, including tuition and fees, or in other cases, can be specifically restricted to certain auxiliary sources of revenue.

Infrastructure Bonds include obligations issued by a variety of entities engaged in the financing of infrastructure projects, such as roads, airports, ports, social infrastructure and other physical assets delivering essential services supported by long-term concession arrangements with a public sector entity.

Investor-Owned Utility Bonds are obligations primarily backed by investor-owned utilities, first mortgage bond obligations of for-profit electric or water utilities providing retail, industrial and commercial service, and also include sale-leaseback obligation bonds supported by such entities.

Housing Revenue Bonds are obligations relating to both single and multi-family housing, issued by states and localities, supported by cash flow and, in some cases, insurance from entities such as the Federal Housing Administration.

Regulated Utilities Obligations are issued by government-regulated providers of essential services and commodities, including electric, water and gas utilities. The majority of the Company's international regulated utility business is conducted in the United Kingdom.

Pooled Infrastructure Obligations are synthetic asset-backed obligations that take the form of CDS obligations or credit‑-linked notes that reference either infrastructure finance obligations or a pool of such obligations, with a defined deductible to cover credit risks associated with the referenced obligations.

Other Public Finance primarily includes government insured student loans, government-sponsored project finance and structured municipal transactions, which includes excess of loss reinsurance on portfolios of municipal credits.

Structured Finance:
Pooled Corporate Obligations are securities primarily backed by various types of corporate debt obligations, such as secured or unsecured bonds, bank loans or loan participations and trust preferred securities. These securities are often issued in ‘‘tranches,’’ with subordinated tranches providing credit support to the more senior tranches. The Company’s financial guaranty exposures generally are to the more senior tranches of these issues.

Residential Mortgage-Backed Securities (RMBS) are obligations backed by closed-end and open-end first and second lien mortgage loans on one-to-four family residential properties, including condominiums and cooperative apartments. First lien mortgage loan products in these transactions include fixed rate, adjustable rate (ARM) and option adjustable-rate (Option ARM) mortgages. The credit quality of borrowers covers a broad range, including ‘‘prime’’, ‘‘subprime’’ and ‘‘Alt-A’’. A prime borrower is generally defined as one with strong risk characteristics as measured by factors such as payment history, credit score, and debt-to-income ratio. A subprime borrower is a borrower with higher risk characteristics, usually as determined by credit score and/or credit history. An Alt-A borrower is generally defined as a prime quality borrower that lacks certain ancillary characteristics, such as fully documented income.

Additional insured obligations within RMBS include Home Equity Lines of Credit (HELOCs), which refers to a type of residential mortgage-backed transaction backed by second-lien loan collateral consisting of home equity lines of credit. U.S. Prime First Lien is a type of residential mortgage-backed securities transaction backed primarily by prime first-lien loan collateral plus an insignificant amount of other miscellaneous RMBS transactions.

CBOs/CLOs (collateralized bond obligations and collateralized loan obligations) are asset-backed securities largely backed by non-investment grade/high yield collateral.

Commercial Mortgage-Backed Securities (CMBS) are obligations backed by pools of commercial mortgages. The collateral supporting CMBS include office, multifamily, retail, hotel, industrial and other specialized or mixed-use properties.

Financial Products is the way in which the Company refers to the guaranteed investment contracts (GICs) portion of a line of business previously conducted by AGMH that the Company did not acquire when it purchased AGMH in 2009. That line of business, which the Company refers to as the former "Financial Products Business" of AGMH, was comprised of its guaranteed investment contracts business, its medium term notes business and the equity payment agreements associated with AGMH's leveraged lease business. When AGMH was still conducting Financial Products Business, AGM issued financial guaranty insurance policies on GICs and in respect of the GIC business; those policies cannot be revoked or canceled. Assured Guaranty is indemnified by Dexia against loss from the former Financial Products Business. The Financial Products Business is currently being run off.

39



Glossary (continued)

Sectors (continued)
Consumer Receivables Securities are obligations backed by non-mortgage consumer receivables, such as student loans, automobile loans and leases, manufactured home loans and other consumer receivables.

Commercial Receivables Securities are obligations backed by equipment loans or leases, aircraft and aircraft engine financings, business loans and trade receivables. Credit support is derived from the cash flows generated by the underlying obligations, as well as property or equipment values as applicable.

Insurance Securitization Securities are obligations secured by the future earnings from pools of various types of insurance/reinsurance policies and income produced by invested assets.

Other Structured Finance Securities are obligations backed by assets not generally described in any of the other described categories. One such type of asset is a tax benefit to be realized by an investor in one of the Federal or state programs that permit such investor to receive a credit against taxes (such as Federal corporate income tax or state insurance premium tax) for making qualified investments in specified enterprises, typically located in designated low-income areas.


40



Non-GAAP Financial Measures
 
The Company references financial measures that are not in accordance with accounting principles generally accepted in the United States of America (GAAP).
 
Management and the board of directors utilize non-GAAP financial measures in evaluating the Company’s financial performance. By providing these non-GAAP financial measures, the Company gives investors, analysts and financial news reporters access to the same information that management reviews internally. In addition, Assured Guaranty’s presentation of non-GAAP financial measures is consistent with how analysts calculate their estimates of Assured Guaranty’s financial results in their research reports on Assured Guaranty and with how investors, analysts and the financial news media evaluate Assured Guaranty’s financial results.
 
The following paragraphs define each non-GAAP financial measure and describe why it is useful. A reconciliation of the non-GAAP financial measure and the most directly comparable GAAP financial measure, is presented within this financial supplement. Non-GAAP financial measures should not be viewed as substitutes for their most directly comparable GAAP measures.

Operating Income: Management believes that operating income is a useful measure because it clarifies the understanding of the underwriting results of the Company’s financial guaranty business, and also includes financing costs and net investment income, and enables investors and analysts to evaluate the Company’s financial results as compared with the consensus analyst estimates distributed publicly by financial databases. Operating income is defined as net income (loss) attributable to Assured Guaranty Ltd., as reported under GAAP, adjusted for the following:

1) Elimination of the after-tax realized gains (losses) on the Company’s investments, except for gains and losses on securities classified as trading. The timing of realized gains and losses, which depends largely on market credit cycles, can vary considerably across periods. The timing of sales is largely subject to the Company’s discretion and influenced by market opportunities, as well as the Company’s tax and capital profile. Trends in the underlying profitability of the Company’s business can be more clearly identified without the fluctuating effects of these transactions.

2) Elimination of the after-tax non-credit-impairment unrealized fair value gains (losses) on credit derivatives, which is the amount in excess of the present value of the expected estimated economic credit losses and non-economic payments. Such fair value adjustments are heavily affected by, and in part fluctuate with, changes in market interest rates, credit spreads and other market factors and are not expected to result in an economic gain or loss. Additionally, such adjustments present all financial guaranty contracts on a more consistent basis of accounting, whether or not they are subject to derivative accounting rules.

3) Elimination of the after-tax fair value gains (losses) on the Company’s committed capital securities. Such amounts are heavily affected by, and in part fluctuate with, changes in market interest rates, credit spreads and other market factors and are not expected to result in an economic gain or loss.

4) Elimination of the after-tax foreign exchange gains (losses) on remeasurement of net premium receivables and loss and LAE reserves. Long-dated receivables constitute a significant portion of the net premium receivable balance and represent the present value of future contractual or expected collections. Therefore, the current period’s foreign exchange remeasurement gains (losses) are not necessarily indicative of the total foreign exchange gains (losses) that the Company will ultimately recognize.

5) Elimination of the effects of consolidating FG VIEs in order to present all financial guaranty contracts on a more consistent basis of accounting, whether or not GAAP requires consolidation. GAAP requires the Company to consolidate certain VIEs that have issued debt obligations insured by the Company even though the Company does not own such VIEs.

Operating Shareholders’ Equity: Management believes that operating shareholders’ equity is a useful measure because it presents the equity of Assured Guaranty Ltd. with all financial guaranty contracts accounted for on a more consistent basis and excludes fair value adjustments that are not expected to result in economic gain or loss. Many investors, analysts and financial news reporters use operating shareholders’ equity as the principal financial measure for valuing Assured Guaranty Ltd.’s current share price or projected share price and also as the basis of their decision to recommend buy or sell Assured Guaranty Ltd.’s common shares. Many of the Company’s fixed income investors also use operating shareholders’ equity to evaluate the Company’s capital adequacy. Operating shareholders’ equity is the basis of the calculation of adjusted book value (see below). Operating shareholders’ equity is defined as shareholders’ equity attributable to Assured Guaranty Ltd., as reported under GAAP, adjusted for the following:

1) Elimination of the effects of consolidating FG VIEs in order to present all financial guaranty contracts on a more consistent basis of accounting, whether or not GAAP requires consolidation. GAAP requires the Company to consolidate certain VIEs that have issued debt obligations insured by the Company even though the Company does not own such VIEs.

2) Elimination of the after-tax non-credit-impairment unrealized fair value gains (losses) on credit derivatives, which is the amount in excess of the present value of the expected estimated economic credit losses and non-economic payments. Such fair value adjustments are heavily affected by, and in part fluctuate with, changes in market interest rates, credit spreads and other market factors and are not expected to result in an economic gain or loss.

41



Non-GAAP Financial Measures (continued)

Operating Shareholders’ Equity (continued):
3) Elimination of the after-tax fair value gains (losses) on the Company’s committed capital securities. Such amounts are heavily affected by, and in part fluctuate with, changes in market interest rates, credit spreads and other market factors and are not expected to result in an economic gain or loss.

4) Elimination of the after-tax unrealized gains (losses) on the Company’s investments, that are recorded as a component of accumulated other comprehensive income (AOCI) (excluding foreign exchange remeasurement). The AOCI component of the fair value adjustment on the investment portfolio is not deemed economic because the Company generally holds these investments to maturity and therefore should not recognize an economic gain or loss.

Operating return on equity (Operating ROE): Operating ROE represents operating income for a specified period divided by the average of operating shareholders’ equity at the beginning and the end of that period. Management believes that operating ROE is a useful measure to evaluate the Company’s return on invested capital. Many investors, analysts and members of the financial news media use operating ROE to evaluate Assured Guaranty Ltd.’s share price and as the basis of their decision to recommend, buy or sell the Assured Guaranty Ltd. common shares. Quarterly and year-to-date operating ROE are calculated on an annualized basis.

Adjusted Book Value: Management believes that adjusted book value is a useful measure because it enables an evaluation of the net present value of the Company’s in-force premiums and revenues in addition to operating shareholders’ equity. The premiums and revenues included in adjusted book value will be earned in future periods, but actual earnings may differ materially from the estimated amounts used in determining current adjusted book value due to changes in foreign exchange rates, prepayment speeds, terminations, credit defaults and other factors. Many investors, analysts and financial news reporters use adjusted book value to evaluate Assured Guaranty Ltd.’s share price and as the basis of their decision to recommend, buy or sell the Assured Guaranty Ltd. common shares. Adjusted book value is operating shareholders’ equity, as defined above, further adjusted for the following:

1) Elimination of after-tax deferred acquisition costs, net. These amounts represent net deferred expenses that have already been paid or accrued and will be expensed in future accounting periods.

2) Addition of the after-tax net present value of estimated net future credit derivative revenue. See below.

3) Addition of the after-tax value of the unearned premium reserve on financial guaranty contracts in excess of expected loss to be expensed, net of reinsurance. This amount represents the expected future net earned premiums, net of expected losses to be expensed, which are not reflected in GAAP equity.

Net present value of estimated net future credit derivative revenue: Management believes that this amount is a useful measure because it enables an evaluation of the value of future estimated credit derivative revenue. There is no corresponding GAAP financial measure. This amount represents the present value of estimated future revenue from the Company’s credit derivative in-force book of business, net of reinsurance, ceding commissions and premium taxes for contracts without expected economic losses, and is discounted at 6%. Estimated net future credit derivative revenue may change from period to period due to changes in foreign exchange rates, prepayment speeds, terminations, credit defaults or other factors that affect par outstanding or the ultimate maturity of an obligation.

PVP or present value of new business production: Management believes that PVP is a useful measure because it enables the evaluation of the value of new business production for Assured Guaranty by taking into account the value of estimated future installment premiums on all new contracts underwritten in a reporting period as well as premium supplements and additional installment premium on existing contracts as to which the issuer has the right to call the insured obligation but has not exercised such right,  whether in insurance or credit derivative contract form, which GAAP gross premiums written and the net credit derivative premiums received and receivable portion of net realized gains and other settlements on credit derivatives (Credit Derivative Revenues) do not adequately measure. PVP in respect of financial guaranty contracts written in a specified period is defined as gross upfront and installment premiums received and the present value of gross estimated future installment premiums, in each case, discounted at 6%. For purposes of the PVP calculation, management discounts estimated future installment premiums on insurance contracts at 6%, while under GAAP, these amounts are discounted at a risk free rate. Additionally, under GAAP, management records future installment premiums on financial guaranty insurance contracts covering non-homogeneous pools of assets based on the contractual term of the transaction, whereas for PVP purposes, management records an estimate of the future installment premiums the Company expects to receive, which may be based upon a shorter period of time than the contractual term of the transaction. Actual future net earned or written premiums and Credit Derivative Revenues may differ from PVP due to factors including, but not limited to, changes in foreign exchange rates, prepayment speeds, terminations, credit defaults, or other factors that affect par outstanding or the ultimate maturity of an obligation.


42








Assured Guaranty Ltd.                        
30 Woodbourne Avenue
Hamilton HM 08
Bermuda
(441) 279-5705
www.assuredguaranty.com


 



Contacts:

Equity and Fixed Income Investors:
Robert Tucker
Managing Director, Investor Relations and Corporate Communications
(212) 339-0861
rtucker@assuredguaranty.com

Michael Walker
Managing Director, Fixed Income Investor Relations
(212) 261-5575
mwalker@assuredguaranty.com

Andre Thomas
Managing Director, Equity Investor Relations
(212) 339-3551
athomas@assuredguaranty.com

Glenn Alterman
Associate, Investor Relations
(212) 339-0854
galterman@assuredguaranty.com

Katie-May Gordon
Associate, Investor Relations
(212) 339-0898
kgordon@assuredguaranty.com

Media:
Ashweeta Durani
Vice President, Corporate Communications
(212) 408-6042
adurani@assuredguaranty.com














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