EX-99.2 3 a09-6100_1ex99d2.htm EX-99.2

 Table of Contents

 

Exhibit 99.2

 

 

 

Assured Guaranty Ltd. Financial Supplement

Fourth Quarter Ended December 31, 2008

 

Table of Contents

 

Page

Selected Financial Highlights

 

1

Consolidated Income Statements

 

2

Consolidated Balance Sheets

 

3

Segment Consolidation

 

4-5

Financial Guaranty Direct Segment

 

6-7

Financial Guaranty Reinsurance Segment

 

8-9

Mortgage Guaranty Segment

 

10

Other Segment

 

11

Loss and LAE Reserves

 

12

Loss and Loss Adjustment Expenses

 

13

Investment Portfolio

 

14

Estimated Net Exposure Amortization

 

15

Estimated Net Unearned Premium Amortization and Estimated Future Installment Premiums

 

16

Financial Guaranty Profile

 

17-22

Pooled Corporate Obligations Profile

 

23

Consolidated Residential Mortgage-Backed Securities Profile

 

24-25

Financial Guaranty Direct U.S. RMBS Profile

 

26-28

Consumer Receivables Profile

 

29

Financial Guaranty Direct Credit Derivative Exposures Profile

 

30

Unrealized Gains (Losses) on Credit Derivatives

 

31

CDOs of ABS Profile

 

32

Non-Investment Grade Exposures

 

33

Closely Monitored Credits

 

34

Largest Exposures by Sector

 

35-38

Consolidated Capital and Claims Paying Resources

 

39

Summary Financial and Statistical Data

 

40

Appendix – Credit Derivatives

 

41

Glossary

 

42

Endnotes Related to Non-GAAP Financial Measures

 

43

 

This supplement should be read in conjunction with documents filed by Assured Guaranty Ltd. (“Assured” or “the Company”) with the Securities and Exchange Commission, including our 10-Q’s dated March 31, 2007, June 30, 2007, September 30, 2007, March 31, 2008, June 30, 2008 and September 30, 2008 and our 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2007.

 

Some amounts in this Financial Supplement may not add due to rounding.

 

Cautionary Statement Regarding Forward-Looking Statements:

 

Any forward-looking statements made in this supplement reflect the Company’s current views with respect to future events and financial performance and are made pursuant to the safe harbor provisions of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995.  Such statements involve risks and uncertainties that may cause actual results to differ materially from those set forth in these statements.  For example, the Company’s forward looking statements, including its calculations of adjusted book value, present value of insurance and credit derivative gross written premiums (“PVP”), net present value of estimated future installment premiums in force, total estimated net future premium earnings, and statements regarding capital losses, pricing, ratings, expenses and new business production could be affected by many events.  These events include rating agency action such as a ratings downgrade, difficulties with the execution of the Company’s business strategy, contract cancellations, developments or volatility in the world’s financial and capital markets, more severe or frequent losses associated with products affecting the adequacy of the Company’s loss reserves, investment losses, the availability of capital, changes in regulation or tax laws, governmental actions, natural catastrophes, the Company’s dependence on customers, decreased demand or increased competition, loss of key personnel, technological developments, the effects of mergers, acquisitions and divestitures, changes in accounting policies or practices, changes in general economic conditions, other risks and uncertainties that have not been identified at this time, management’s response to these factors, and other risk factors identified in the Company’s filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission.  Readers are cautioned not to place undue reliance on these forward looking statements, which speak only as of the dates on which they are made.  The Company undertakes no obligation to publicly update or revise any forward looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise.

 



Table of Contents

 

Assured Guaranty Ltd.

Selected Financial Highlights

(dollars in millions, except per share amounts)

 

 

 

Quarter Ended

 

% Change

 

Year Ended

 

% Change

 

 

 

December 31,

 

versus

 

December 31,

 

versus

 

 

 

2008

 

2007

 

4Q-07

 

2008

 

2007

 

2007

 

Gross written premiums (GWP) analysis:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Present value of insurance and credit derivative GWP (PVP) (a)

 

$

128.1

 

$

477.0

 

(73

)%

$

823.0

 

$

874.6

 

(6

)%

Less: PVP of credit derivatives

 

57.6

 

81.8

 

(30

)%

204.5

 

252.2

 

(19

)%

PVP of financial guaranty GWP

 

70.5

 

395.2

 

(82

)%

618.5

 

622.4

 

(1

)%

Less: Financial guaranty installment premium PVP

 

10.6

 

195.1

 

(95

)%

96.5

 

292.8

 

(67

)%

Total: Financial guaranty upfront GWP

 

59.9

 

200.1

 

(70

)%

522.0

 

329.6

 

58

%

Plus: Upfront premium due to commutation

 

 

 

NM

 

(20.8

)

 

NM

 

Plus: Financial guaranty installment GWP

 

24.0

 

29.2

 

(18

)%

112.8

 

88.6

 

27

%

Total financial guaranty GWP

 

83.9

 

229.3

 

(63

)%

614.0

 

418.2

 

47

%

Plus: Mortgage guaranty segment GWP

 

 

(0.2

)

NM

 

0.7

 

2.7

 

(74

)%

Plus: Other segment GWP

 

 

 

NM

 

3.5

 

3.5

 

0

%

Total GWP per income statement

 

$

83.9

 

$

229.1

 

(63

)%

$

618.3

 

$

424.5

 

46

%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Net (loss) income

 

$

(243.8

)

$

(260.1

)

(6

)%

$

68.9

 

$

(303.3

)

NM

 

Less: After-tax realized (losses) gains on investments

 

(46.8

)

0.4

 

NM

 

(62.7

)

(1.3

)

NM

 

Less: After-tax unrealized (losses) gains on credit derivatives (1)

 

(220.2

)

(297.9

)

(26

)%

23.7

 

(482.5

)

NM

 

Plus: After-tax incurred losses on credit derivatives (2)

 

(19.8

)

(0.4

)

NM

 

(33.4

)

(2.5

)

NM

 

Operating income (b)

 

$

3.5

 

$

37.0

 

(91

)%

$

74.5

 

$

178.0

 

(58

)%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Book value

 

$

1,926.2

 

$

1,666.6

 

16

%

 

 

 

 

 

 

Plus: Net unearned premium reserve, after tax (3)

 

1,033.4

 

779.7

 

33

%

 

 

 

 

 

 

Plus: Net unearned revenue on credit derivatives, after tax (4)

 

17.6

 

11.5

 

53

%

 

 

 

 

 

 

Plus: Net present value of estimated future installment premiums in-force, after tax (d)

 

708.3

 

719.8

 

(2

)%

 

 

 

 

 

 

Less: Deferred acquisition costs (DAC), after tax

 

261.6

 

231.0

 

13

%

 

 

 

 

 

 

Adjusted book value (c)

 

$

3,423.9

 

$

2,946.5

 

16

%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

ROE, excluding AOCI

 

(47.7

)%

(65.4

)%

 

 

3.9

%

(18.8

)%

 

 

Operating ROE, excluding AOCI and after-tax unrealized (losses) gains on credit derivatives (b)

 

0.6

%

7.8

%

 

 

3.4

%

9.8

%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Per diluted share:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Net (loss) income

 

$

(2.68

)

$

(3.77

)

(29

)%

$

0.77

 

$

(4.46

)

NM

 

Less: After-tax realized (losses) gains on investments

 

(0.51

)

0.01

 

NM

 

(0.70

)

(0.02

)

NM

 

Less: After-tax unrealized (losses) gains on credit derivatives (1)

 

(2.42

)

(4.32

)

(44

)%

0.27

 

(7.09

)

NM

 

Plus: After-tax incurred losses on credit derivatives (2)

 

(0.22

)

(0.01

)

NM

 

(0.38

)

(0.04

)

NM

 

Operating income (b)

 

$

0.04

 

$

0.53

 

(92

)%

$

0.84

 

$

2.57

 

(67

)%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Book value

 

$

21.18

 

$

20.85

 

2

%

 

 

 

 

 

 

Plus: Net unearned premium reserve, after tax (3)

 

11.36

 

9.75

 

17

%

 

 

 

 

 

 

Plus: Net unearned revenue on credit derivatives, after tax (4)

 

0.19

 

0.14

 

36

%

 

 

 

 

 

 

Plus: Net present value of estimated future installment premiums in-force, after tax (d)

 

7.79

 

9.00

 

(13

)%

 

 

 

 

 

 

Less: DAC, after tax

 

2.87

 

2.89

 

(1

)%

 

 

 

 

 

 

Adjusted book value (c)

 

$

37.65

 

$

36.85

 

2

%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Book value, excluding AOCI and net unrealized mark-to-market gains (losses) on credit derivatives(5)

 

$

25.43

 

$

25.72

 

(1

)%

 

 

 

 

 

 

Adjusted book value, excluding AOCI and net unrealized mark-to-market gains (losses) on credit derivatives(5)

 

$

41.91

 

$

41.73

 

0

%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Consolidated net debt service outstanding

 

$

348,816

 

$

302,413

 

15

%

 

 

 

 

 

 

Consolidated net par outstanding

 

222,722

 

200,279

 

11

%

 

 

 

 

 

 

Consolidated claims-paying resources

 

4,962

 

4,440

 

12

%

 

 

 

 

 

 

Gross par written

 

7,281

 

49,186

 

(85

)%

56,140

 

88,117

 

(36

)%

 


(1) The quarter and year ended December 31, 2008 included a fair value after-tax gain of $12.0 million, or $0.13 per diluted share, and $27.8 million, or $0.31 per diluted share, respectively, related to Assured Guaranty Corp.’s committed capital securities. Both the quarter and year ended December 31, 2007 included a fair value after-tax gain of $5.4 million, or $0.08 per diluted share, related to Assured Guaranty Corp.’s committed capital securities.

(2) Company’s estimate of incurred losses included in the mark to market unrealized loss on credit derivatives.

(3) Unearned premium reserve (UPR) less pre-paid reinsurance premiums, after tax.

(4) Unearned revenue less pre-paid reinsurance premiums on credit derivatives, after tax.

(5) Represents a fair value component of the Company’s credit derivative contracts, which are included in credit derivative asset or liability line on the balance sheet, and committed capital securities.

 

Note: Please refer to endnotes for explanation of non-GAAP financial measures [PVP (a), operating income and operating ROE (b), adjusted book value (c), and net present value of estimated future installment premiums in force (d)].

 

NM = Not meaningful

 

1



Table of Contents

 

Assured Guaranty Ltd.

Consolidated Income Statements

(dollars and shares in millions, except per share amounts)

 

 

 

Quarter Ended

 

% Change

 

Year Ended

 

% Change

 

 

 

December 31,

 

versus

 

December 31,

 

versus

 

 

 

2008

 

2007

 

4Q-07

 

2008

 

2007

 

2007

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Revenues

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Gross written premiums

 

$

83.9

 

$

229.1

 

(63

)%

$

618.3

 

$

424.5

 

46

%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Net written premiums

 

82.7

 

227.7

 

(64

)%

604.6

 

408.0

 

48

%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Net earned premiums

 

77.4

 

45.6

 

70

%

261.4

 

159.3

 

64

%

Net investment income

 

42.3

 

33.9

 

25

%

162.6

 

128.1

 

27

%

Realized gains and other settlements on credit derivatives

 

28.2

 

21.9

 

29

%

117.6

 

74.0

 

59

%

Incurred losses on credit derivatives

 

(24.8

)

(0.5

)

NM

 

(43.7

)

(3.6

)

NM

 

Other income

 

0.2

 

0.1

 

100

%

0.7

 

0.5

 

40

%

Total revenues

 

123.3

 

101.0

 

22

%

498.6

 

358.3

 

39

%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Expenses

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Loss and loss adjustment expenses (recoveries)

 

90.0

 

17.6

 

NM

 

265.8

 

5.8

 

NM

 

Profit commission expense

 

0.6

 

2.9

 

(79

)%

1.3

 

6.5

 

(80

)%

Acquisition costs

 

18.2

 

11.0

 

65

%

61.2

 

43.2

 

42

%

Other operating expenses

 

13.6

 

20.5

 

(34

)%

83.5

 

79.9

 

5

%

Interest and related expenses

 

7.6

 

6.6

 

15

%

29.0

 

26.2

 

11

%

Total expenses

 

129.9

 

58.5

 

122

%

440.9

 

161.4

 

173

%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Operating income before (benefit) provision for income taxes

 

(6.6

)

42.4

 

NM

 

57.7

 

196.9

 

(71

)%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Total (benefit) provision for income taxes

 

(10.1

)

5.4

 

NM

 

(16.8

)

18.9

 

NM

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Operating income (b)

 

3.5

 

37.0

 

(91

)%

74.5

 

178.0

 

(58

)%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Plus: After-tax realized (losses) gains on investments

 

(46.8

)

0.4

 

NM

 

(62.7

)

(1.3

)

NM

 

Plus: After-tax unrealized (losses) gains on credit derivatives (1)

 

(200.5

)

(297.5

)

(33

)%

57.1

 

(480.0

)

NM

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Net (loss) income

 

$

(243.8

)

$

(260.1

)

(6

)%

$

68.9

 

$

(303.3

)

NM

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Per diluted share

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Operating income (b)

 

$

0.04

 

$

0.53

 

(92

)%

$

0.84

 

$

2.57

 

(67

)%

Plus: After-tax realized (losses) gains on investments

 

(0.51

)

0.01

 

NM

 

(0.70

)

(0.02

)

NM

 

Plus: After-tax unrealized (losses) gains on credit derivatives (1)

 

(2.20

)

(4.31

)

(49

)%

0.64

 

(7.06

)

NM

 

Net (loss) income

 

$

(2.68

)

$

(3.77

)

(29

)%

$

0.77

 

$

(4.46

)

NM

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Effect of refundings

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Earned premiums from refundings

 

$

25.8

 

$

1.7

 

NM

 

$

61.9

 

$

17.6

 

NM

 

Operating income effect

 

15.3

 

0.8

 

NM

 

38.1

 

9.1

 

NM

 

Operating income per diluted share effect

 

$

0.17

 

$

0.01

 

NM

 

$

0.43

 

$

0.13

 

NM

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Weighted average shares outstanding

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Basic shares outstanding

 

91.0

 

69.0

 

32

%

88.0

 

68.0

 

29

%

Plus: effect of options

 

 

 

NM

 

0.2

 

 

NM

 

Plus: effect of restricted stock awards and units

 

 

 

NM

 

0.7

 

 

NM

 

Diluted shares outstanding - GAAP (2)

 

91.0

 

69.0

 

32

%

88.9

 

68.0

 

31

%

Plus: effect of options

 

 

0.5

 

(100

)%

 

0.6

 

NM

 

Plus: effect of restricted stock awards and units

 

0.6

 

0.7

 

(14

)%

 

0.6

 

NM

 

Diluted shares outstanding - non-GAAP (2)

 

91.6

 

70.1

 

31

%

88.9

 

69.3

 

28

%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Shares outstanding at the end of period

 

91.0

 

79.9

 

14

%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 


(1) The quarter and year ended December 31, 2008 included a fair value after-tax gain of $12.0 million, or $0.13 per diluted share, and $27.8 million, or $0.31 per diluted share, respectively, related to Assured Guaranty Corp.’s committed capital securities. Both the quarter and year ended December 31, 2007 included a fair value after-tax gain of $5.4 million, or $0.08 per diluted share, related to Assured Guaranty Corp.’s committed capital securities.

(2) The calculations for weighted average diluted shares outstanding and weighted average basic shares outstanding for GAAP are the same due to the antidilutive effect of options and restricted stock awards and units as a result of the net loss for the quarters ended December 31, 2008 and 2007 and the year ended December 31, 2007. However, net income for full year 2008 and operating income, a non-GAAP financial measure, for both periods is positive, therefore the calculation of weighted diluted shares outstanding for operating income includes the dilutive effect of options and restricted stock awards and units.

 

Note: Please refer to endnotes for explanation of non-GAAP financial measures [operating income (b)].

 

NM = Not meaningful

 

2



Table of Contents

 

Assured Guaranty Ltd.

Consolidated Balance Sheets

(dollars in millions)

 

 

 

As of :

 

 

 

December 31,

 

December 31,

 

 

 

2008

 

2007

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Assets

 

 

 

 

 

Fixed maturity securities, at fair value

 

$

3,154.1

 

$

2,587.0

 

Short-term investments, at cost which approximates fair value

 

477.2

 

552.9

 

Total investments

 

3,631.3

 

3,139.9

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Cash and cash equivalents

 

12.3

 

8.0

 

Accrued investment income

 

32.8

 

26.5

 

Deferred acquisition costs

 

288.6

 

259.3

 

Prepaid reinsurance premiums

 

18.9

 

13.5

 

Reinsurance recoverable on ceded losses

 

6.5

 

8.8

 

Premiums receivable

 

15.7

 

27.8

 

Goodwill

 

85.4

 

85.4

 

Credit derivative assets

 

147.0

 

5.5

 

Deferred tax asset

 

129.1

 

147.6

 

Current income taxes receivable

 

21.4

 

 

Salvage recoverable

 

80.2

 

8.5

 

Committed capital securities, at fair value

 

51.1

 

8.3

 

Other assets

 

35.3

 

23.7

 

Total assets

 

$

4,555.7

 

$

3,762.9

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Liabilities and shareholders’ equity

 

 

 

 

 

Liabilities

 

 

 

 

 

Unearned premium reserves

 

$

1,233.7

 

$

887.2

 

Reserves for losses and loss adjustment expenses

 

196.8

 

125.6

 

Profit commissions payable

 

8.6

 

22.3

 

Reinsurance balances payable

 

18.0

 

3.3

 

Current income taxes payable

 

 

0.6

 

Funds held by Company under reinsurance contracts

 

30.7

 

25.4

 

Credit derivative liabilities

 

733.8

 

623.1

 

Senior notes

 

197.4

 

197.4

 

Series A Enhanced Junior Subordinated Debentures

 

149.8

 

149.7

 

Other liabilities

 

60.8

 

61.8

 

Total liabilities

 

2,629.5

 

2,096.4

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Shareholders’ equity

 

 

 

 

 

Common stock

 

0.9

 

0.8

 

Additional paid-in capital

 

1,284.4

 

1,023.9

 

Retained earnings

 

638.1

 

585.3

 

Accumulated other comprehensive income

 

2.9

 

56.6

 

Total shareholders’ equity

 

1,926.2

 

1,666.6

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Total liabilities and shareholders’ equity

 

$

4,555.7

 

$

3,762.9

 

 

3



Table of Contents

 

Assured Guaranty Ltd.

Segment Consolidation (page 1 of 2)

(dollars in millions)

 

 

 

Quarter Ended December 31, 2008

 

 

 

Financial

 

Financial

 

 

 

Total

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Guaranty

 

Guaranty

 

Mortgage

 

Financial

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Direct

 

Reinsurance(1)

 

Guaranty

 

Guaranty

 

Other

 

Total

 

PVP(a):

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

U.S. public finance

 

$

57.4

 

$

6.2

 

$

 

$

63.6

 

 

 

$

63.6

 

U.S. structured finance

 

49.8

 

 

 

49.8

 

 

 

49.8

 

International

 

14.7

 

 

 

14.7

 

 

 

14.7

 

Total PVP

 

$

121.9

 

$

6.2

 

$

 

$

128.1

 

 

 

$

128.1

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Income statement:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Gross written premiums

 

$

69.1

 

$

14.7

 

$

 

$

83.9

 

$

 

$

83.9

 

Net written premiums

 

67.9

 

14.7

 

 

82.7

 

 

82.7

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Net earned premiums

 

25.0

 

51.1

 

1.3

 

77.4

 

 

77.4

 

Realized gains and other settlements on credit derivatives:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Net credit derivative premiums earned

 

26.8

 

1.5

 

 

28.3

 

 

28.3

 

Net credit derivative recoveries (losses)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Ceding commissions income (expense), net

 

0.3

 

(0.4

)

 

(0.1

)

 

(0.1

)

Total realized gains and other settlements on credit derivatives

 

27.1

 

1.1

 

 

28.2

 

 

28.2

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Total revenues

 

52.1

 

52.2

 

1.3

 

105.6

 

 

105.6

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Loss and loss adjustment expenses (recoveries)

 

66.7

 

22.4

 

0.9

 

90.0

 

 

90.0

 

Incurred losses on credit derivatives

 

19.5

 

5.4

 

 

24.8

 

 

24.8

 

Total loss and loss adjustment expenses (recoveries)

 

86.2

 

27.8

 

0.9

 

114.8

 

 

114.8

 

Profit commission expense

 

 

0.5

 

0.1

 

0.6

 

 

0.6

 

Acquisition costs

 

3.9

 

14.2

 

0.2

 

18.2

 

 

18.2

 

Operating expenses

 

9.6

 

3.7

 

0.3

 

13.6

 

 

13.6

 

Total underwriting expenses

 

$

99.7

 

$

46.1

 

$

1.4

 

$

147.3

 

$

 

$

147.3

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Underwriting (loss) gain

 

$

(47.6

)

$

6.1

 

$

(0.1

)

$

(41.7

)

$

 

$

(41.7

)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Loss and loss adjustment expense ratio (e)

 

166.4

%

52.8

%

69.2

%

108.6

%

 

 

108.6

%

Expense ratio (e)

 

25.6

%

35.6

%

41.5

%

30.8

%

 

 

30.8

%

Combined ratio (e)

 

192.0

%

88.4

%

110.7

%

139.4

%

 

 

139.4

%

 

 

 

Quarter Ended December 31, 2007

 

 

 

Financial

 

Financial

 

 

 

Total

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Guaranty

 

Guaranty

 

Mortgage

 

Financial

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Direct

 

Reinsurance(1)

 

Guaranty

 

Guaranty

 

Other

 

Total

 

PVP:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

U.S. public finance

 

$

25.6

 

$

272.7

 

$

 

$

298.3

 

 

 

$

298.3

 

U.S. structured finance

 

92.3

 

22.9

 

 

115.2

 

 

 

115.2

 

International

 

38.5

 

25.0

 

 

63.5

 

 

 

63.5

 

Total PVP

 

$

156.4

 

$

320.7

 

$

 

$

477.0

 

 

 

$

477.0

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Income statement:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Gross written premiums

 

$

46.3

 

$

183.0

 

$

(0.2

)

$

229.1

 

$

 

$

229.1

 

Net written premiums

 

44.9

 

183.0

 

(0.2

)

227.7

 

 

227.7

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Net earned premiums

 

14.7

 

21.7

 

9.2

 

45.6

 

 

45.6

 

Realized gains and other settlements on credit derivatives:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Net credit derivative premiums earned

 

22.0

 

 

 

22.0

 

 

22.0

 

Net credit derivative recoveries (losses)

 

0.0

 

 

 

0.0

 

 

0.0

 

Ceding commissions income (expense), net

 

(0.2

)

 

 

(0.2

)

 

(0.2

)

Total realized gains and other settlements on credit derivatives

 

21.9

 

 

 

21.9

 

 

21.9

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Total revenues

 

36.5

 

21.7

 

9.2

 

67.5

 

 

67.5

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Loss and loss adjustment expenses (recoveries)

 

22.8

 

(4.8

)

(0.4

)

17.6

 

 

17.6

 

Incurred losses on credit derivatives

 

0.5

 

 

 

0.5

 

 

0.5

 

Total loss and loss adjustment expenses (recoveries)

 

23.3

 

(4.8

)

(0.4

)

18.1

 

 

18.1

 

Profit commission expense

 

 

0.5

 

2.4

 

2.9

 

 

2.9

 

Acquisition costs

 

2.4

 

7.3

 

1.2

 

11.0

 

 

11.0

 

Operating expenses

 

14.9

 

4.5

 

1.0

 

20.5

 

 

20.5

 

Total underwriting expenses

 

$

40.7

 

$

7.5

 

$

4.2

 

$

52.4

 

$

 

$

52.4

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Underwriting gain

 

$

(4.2

)

$

14.2

 

$

5.0

 

$

15.0

 

$

 

$

15.0

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Loss and loss adjustment expense ratio (e)

 

63.5

%

(22.3

)%

(4.3

)%

26.7

%

 

 

26.7

%

Expense ratio (e)

 

47.9

%

56.7

%

50.3

%

51.1

%

 

 

51.1

%

Combined ratio (e)

 

111.5

%

34.4

%

46.0

%

77.8

%

 

 

77.8

%

 


(1) Due to the timing of receiving reports prepared by Assured’s ceding companies, PVP for installment premiums, par written and par outstanding on treaty business in the Company’s Financial Guaranty Reinsurance segment are reported on a one-quarter lag.

 

Note: Please refer to endnotes for explanation of non-GAAP financial measures [PVP (a) and loss and loss adjustment expense ratio, expense ratio and combined ratio (e)].

 

4



Table of Contents

 

Assured Guaranty Ltd.

Segment Consolidation (2 of 2)

(dollars in millions)

 

 

 

Year Ended December 31, 2008

 

 

 

Financial

 

Financial

 

 

 

Total

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Guaranty

 

Guaranty

 

Mortgage

 

Financial

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Direct

 

Reinsurance(1)

 

Guaranty

 

Guaranty

 

Other

 

Total

 

PVP(a):

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

U.S. public finance

 

$

431.6

 

$

92.3

 

$

 

$

523.9

 

 

 

$

523.9

 

U.S. structured finance

 

187.6

 

7.2

 

 

194.7

 

 

 

194.7

 

International

 

81.5

 

22.8

 

 

104.3

 

 

 

104.3

 

Total PVP

 

$

700.7

 

$

122.3

 

$

 

$

823.0

 

 

 

$

823.0

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Income statement:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Gross written premiums

 

$

484.7

 

$

129.3

 

$

0.7

 

$

614.7

 

$

3.5

 

$

618.3

 

Net written premiums

 

474.7

 

129.1

 

0.7

 

604.6

 

 

604.6

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Net earned premiums

 

90.0

 

165.9

 

5.7

 

261.4

 

 

261.4

 

Realized gains and other settlements on credit derivatives:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Net credit derivative premiums earned

 

113.2

 

4.9

 

 

118.1

 

 

118.1

 

Net credit derivative recoveries (losses)

 

 

 

 

 

0.4

 

0.4

 

Ceding commissions income (expense), net

 

0.6

 

(1.5

)

 

(0.9

)

 

(0.9

)

Total realized gains and other settlements on credit derivatives

 

113.8

 

3.4

 

 

117.2

 

0.4

 

117.6

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Total revenues

 

203.8

 

169.3

 

5.7

 

378.7

 

0.4

 

379.0

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Loss and loss adjustment expenses (recoveries)

 

196.7

 

68.4

 

2.0

 

267.1

 

(1.5

)

265.8

 

Incurred losses on credit derivatives

 

38.4

 

5.4

 

 

43.7

 

 

43.7

 

Total loss and loss adjustment expenses (recoveries)

 

235.1

 

73.8

 

2.0

 

310.9

 

(1.5

)

309.5

 

Profit commission expense

 

 

1.0

 

0.4

 

1.3

 

 

1.3

 

Acquisition costs

 

14.0

 

46.6

 

0.5

 

61.2

 

 

61.2

 

Operating expenses

 

61.5

 

19.7

 

2.2

 

83.5

 

 

83.5

 

Total underwriting expenses

 

$

310.6

 

$

141.2

 

$

5.1

 

$

456.9

 

$

(1.5

)

$

455.5

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Underwriting (loss) gain

 

$

(106.8

)

$

28.1

 

$

0.6

 

$

(78.2

)

$

1.9

 

$

(76.4

)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Loss and loss adjustment expense ratio (e)

 

115.7

%

43.2

%

35.1

%

81.9

%

 

 

81.4

%

Expense ratio (e)

 

36.9

%

40.3

%

53.9

%

38.7

%

 

 

38.7

%

Combined ratio (e)

 

152.6

%

83.5

%

89.0

%

120.6

%

 

 

120.1

%

 

 

 

Year Ended December 31, 2007

 

 

 

Financial

 

Financial

 

 

 

Total

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Guaranty

 

Guaranty

 

Mortgage

 

Financial

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Direct

 

Reinsurance(1)

 

Guaranty

 

Guaranty

 

Other

 

Total

 

PVP:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

U.S. public finance

 

$

60.1

 

$

301.5

 

$

 

$

361.7

 

 

 

$

361.7

 

U.S. structured finance

 

264.1

 

32.4

 

 

296.5

 

 

 

296.5

 

International

 

152.6

 

63.9

 

 

216.5

 

 

 

216.5

 

Total PVP

 

$

476.8

 

$

397.8

 

$

 

$

874.6

 

 

 

$

874.6

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Income statement:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Gross written premiums

 

$

167.1

 

$

251.0

 

$

2.7

 

$

421.0

 

$

3.5

 

$

424.5

 

Net written premiums

 

154.5

 

250.8

 

2.7

 

408.0

 

 

408.0

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Net earned premiums

 

52.8

 

88.9

 

17.5

 

159.3

 

 

159.3

 

Realized gains and other settlements on credit derivatives:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Net credit derivative premiums earned

 

72.7

 

 

 

72.7

 

 

72.7

 

Net credit derivative recoveries (losses)

 

0.1

 

 

 

0.1

 

1.3

 

1.4

 

Ceding commissions income (expense), net

 

(0.1

)

 

 

(0.1

)

 

(0.1

)

Total realized gains and other settlements on credit derivatives

 

72.7

 

 

 

72.7

 

1.3

 

74.0

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Total revenues

 

125.5

 

88.9

 

17.5

 

232.0

 

1.3

 

233.3

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Loss and loss adjustment expenses (recoveries)

 

29.2

 

(24.1

)

0.6

 

5.8

 

 

5.8

 

Incurred losses on credit derivatives

 

3.6

 

 

 

3.6

 

 

3.6

 

Total loss and loss adjustment expenses (recoveries)

 

32.7

 

(24.1

)

0.6

 

9.3

 

 

9.3

 

Profit commission expense

 

 

2.7

 

3.8

 

6.5

 

 

6.5

 

Acquisition costs

 

10.2

 

31.3

 

1.6

 

43.2

 

 

43.2

 

Operating expenses

 

60.5

 

17.3

 

2.0

 

79.9

 

 

79.9

 

Total underwriting expenses

 

$

103.4

 

$

27.3

 

$

8.1

 

$

138.8

 

$

 

$

138.8

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Underwriting gain

 

$

22.1

 

$

61.6

 

$

9.4

 

$

93.3

 

$

1.3

 

$

94.5

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Loss and loss adjustment expense ratio (e)

 

26.0

%

(27.1

)%

3.3

%

4.0

%

 

 

3.4

%

Expense ratio (e)

 

56.4

%

57.7

%

42.9

%

55.8

%

 

 

55.8

%

Combined ratio (e)

 

82.4

%

30.6

%

46.2

%

59.8

%

 

 

59.2

%

 


(1) Due to the timing of receiving reports prepared by Assured’s ceding companies, PVP for installment premiums, par written and par outstanding on treaty business in the Company’s Financial Guaranty Reinsurance segment are reported on a one-quarter lag.

 

Note: Please refer to endnotes for explanation of non-GAAP financial measures [PVP (a) and loss and loss adjustment expense ratio, expense ratio and combined ratio (e)].

 

5



Table of Contents

 

Assured Guaranty Ltd.

Financial Guaranty Direct Segment (1 of 2)

(dollars in millions)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Full Year

 

Full Year

 

 

 

1Q-07

 

2Q-07

 

3Q-07

 

4Q-07

 

1Q-08

 

2Q-08

 

3Q-08

 

4Q-08

 

2007

 

2008

 

PVP(a):

 

$

83.7

 

$

104.0

 

$

132.7

 

$

156.4

 

$

255.2

 

$

241.4

 

$

82.2

 

$

121.9

 

$

476.8

 

$

700.7

 

Less: PVP of credit derivatives GWP

 

40.3

 

39.2

 

90.8

 

81.8

 

91.5

 

52.3

 

 

57.6

 

252.2

 

201.5

 

PVP of financial guaranty GWP

 

43.4

 

64.8

 

41.9

 

74.6

 

163.7

 

189.1

 

82.2

 

64.2

 

224.6

 

499.2

 

Less: Present value of insurance installment premiums (a)

 

22.7

 

29.5

 

8.9

 

43.9

 

33.8

 

5.9

 

30.3

 

6.9

 

105.1

 

76.8

 

Upfront financial guaranty gross written premiums (GWP)

 

20.7

 

35.3

 

33.0

 

30.6

 

129.9

 

183.2

 

51.9

 

57.4

 

119.5

 

422.4

 

Plus: Financial guaranty installment GWP

 

11.5

 

10.3

 

10.2

 

15.6

 

16.5

 

14.6

 

19.5

 

11.7

 

47.6

 

62.3

 

Financial guaranty direct GWP

 

$

32.1

 

$

45.6

 

$

43.1

 

$

46.3

 

$

146.4

 

$

197.8

 

$

71.4

 

$

69.1

 

$

167.1

 

$

484.7

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Income statement:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Gross written premiums

 

$

32.1

 

$

45.6

 

$

43.1

 

$

46.3

 

$

146.4

 

$

197.8

 

$

71.4

 

$

69.1

 

$

167.1

 

$

484.7

 

Net written premiums

 

31.9

 

42.6

 

35.1

 

44.9

 

144.1

 

192.6

 

70.0

 

67.9

 

154.5

 

474.7

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Net earned premiums:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Scheduled net earned premiums

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

U.S. public finance

 

1.3

 

1.5

 

1.7

 

2.0

 

2.8

 

5.9

 

9.9

 

9.5

 

6.5

 

28.2

 

U.S. structured finance

 

6.1

 

7.3

 

8.3

 

9.7

 

11.3

 

13.6

 

12.3

 

11.2

 

31.3

 

48.4

 

International

 

3.0

 

3.3

 

3.0

 

3.0

 

3.1

 

1.3

 

4.7

 

3.0

 

12.2

 

12.1

 

Total scheduled net earned premiums

 

10.4

 

12.0

 

13.0

 

14.7

 

17.3

 

20.8

 

26.9

 

23.7

 

50.0

 

88.7

 

Net earned premiums from refundings

 

1.7

 

 

1.1

 

 

 

 

 

1.3

 

2.8

 

1.3

 

Total net earned premiums

 

12.1

 

12.0

 

14.1

 

14.7

 

17.3

 

20.8

 

26.9

 

25.0

 

52.8

 

90.0

 

Realized gains and other settlements on credit derivatives:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Net credit derivative premiums earned

 

16.8

 

16.3

 

17.6

 

22.0

 

27.3

 

30.6

 

28.4

 

26.8

 

72.7

 

113.2

 

Net credit derivative recoveries (losses)

 

0.0

 

0.0

 

0.0

 

0.0

 

 

 

 

 

0.1

 

 

Ceding commissions income (expense), net

 

0.0

 

(0.1

)

0.1

 

(0.2

)

(0.1

)

0.2

 

0.2

 

0.3

 

(0.1

)

0.6

 

Total realized gains and other settlements on credit derivatives

 

16.9

 

16.2

 

17.8

 

21.9

 

27.3

 

30.9

 

28.6

 

27.1

 

72.7

 

113.8

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Total revenues

 

29.0

 

28.2

 

31.8

 

36.5

 

44.5

 

51.7

 

55.5

 

52.1

 

125.5

 

203.8

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Loss and loss adjustment expenses (recoveries):

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Case

 

0.0

 

0.0

 

0.0

 

0.3

 

0.2

 

32.0

 

99.9

 

70.4

 

0.4

 

202.5

 

Portfolio

 

0.6

 

1.0

 

4.6

 

22.5

 

35.7

 

(3.8

)

(34.0

)

(3.7

)

28.8

 

(5.8

)

Total loss and loss adjustment expenses (recoveries) - financial guaranty

 

0.7

 

1.0

 

4.7

 

22.8

 

35.9

 

28.2

 

65.9

 

66.7

 

29.2

 

196.7

 

Incurred losses on credit derivatives

 

0.6

 

0.7

 

1.8

 

0.5

 

3.2

 

5.6

 

10.1

 

19.5

 

3.6

 

38.4

 

Total loss and loss adjustment expenses (recoveries)

 

1.2

 

1.7

 

6.4

 

23.3

 

39.1

 

33.8

 

76.0

 

86.2

 

32.7

 

235.1

 

Profit commission expense

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Acquisition costs

 

3.0

 

2.2

 

2.5

 

2.4

 

3.0

 

3.1

 

4.0

 

3.9

 

10.2

 

14.0

 

Operating expenses

 

15.9

 

14.5

 

15.1

 

14.9

 

21.3

 

15.2

 

15.4

 

9.6

 

60.5

 

61.5

 

Total expenses

 

$

20.2

 

$

18.5

 

$

24.0

 

$

40.7

 

$

63.4

 

$

52.1

 

$

95.5

 

$

99.7

 

$

103.4

 

$

310.6

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Underwriting gain (loss)

 

$

8.8

 

$

9.8

 

$

7.8

 

$

(4.2

)

$

(18.9

)

$

(0.4

)

$

(40.0

)

$

(47.6

)

$

22.1

 

$

(106.8

)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Loss and loss adjustment expense ratio (e)

 

4.2

%

6.0

%

20.2

%

63.6

%

87.7

%

65.7

%

137.5

%

166.4

%

26.0

%

115.7

%

Expense ratio (e)

 

65.4

%

59.4

%

55.2

%

47.9

%

54.6

%

35.1

%

34.8

%

25.6

%

56.4

%

36.9

%

Combined ratio (e)

 

69.6

%

65.4

%

75.4

%

111.5

%

142.3

%

100.8

%

172.3

%

192.0

%

82.4

%

152.6

%

 

Note: Please refer to endnotes for explanation of non-GAAP financial measures [PVP (a) and loss and loss adjustment expense ratio, expense ratio and combined ratio (e)].

 

6



Table of Contents

 

Assured Guaranty Ltd.

Financial Guaranty Direct Segment (2 of 2)

(dollars in millions)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Full Year

 

Full Year

 

 

 

1Q-07

 

2Q-07

 

3Q-07

 

4Q-07

 

1Q-08

 

2Q-08

 

3Q-08

 

4Q-08

 

2007

 

2008

 

PVP(a):

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

U.S. public finance

 

$

8.8

 

$

15.4

 

$

10.3

 

$

25.6

 

$

123.3

 

$

183.2

 

$

67.7

 

$

57.4

 

$

60.1

 

$

431.6

 

U.S. structured finance

 

44.9

 

49.9

 

77.0

 

92.3

 

71.3

 

51.9

 

14.5

 

49.8

 

264.1

 

187.6

 

International

 

29.9

 

38.8

 

45.4

 

38.5

 

60.5

 

6.3

 

 

14.7

 

152.6

 

81.5

 

Total

 

$

83.7

 

$

104.0

 

$

132.7

 

$

156.4

 

$

255.2

 

$

241.4

 

$

82.2

 

$

121.9

 

$

476.8

 

$

700.7

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Gross par written:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

U.S. public finance

 

$

609

 

$

705

 

$

695

 

$

2,271

 

$

7,213

 

$

13,170

 

$

5,574

 

$

4,752

 

$

4,281

 

$

30,710

 

U.S. structured finance

 

5,776

 

7,723

 

9,203

 

8,644

 

5,623

 

2,516

 

1,920

 

2,026

 

31,346

 

12,085

 

International

 

2,190

 

2,393

 

2,995

 

4,589

 

3,918

 

495

 

 

359

 

12,167

 

4,772

 

Total

 

$

8,575

 

$

10,822

 

$

12,893

 

$

15,505

 

$

16,755

 

$

16,181

 

$

7,494

 

$

7,137

 

$

47,795

 

$

47,567

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Net par outstanding:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

U.S. public finance

 

$

3,989

 

$

4,686

 

$

5,313

 

$

7,504

 

$

14,607

 

$

27,602

 

$

32,889

 

$

37,461

 

$

7,504

 

$

37,461

 

U.S. structured finance

 

48,430

 

50,562

 

57,497

 

64,950

 

66,324

 

67,816

 

66,567

 

65,589

 

64,950

 

65,589

 

International

 

21,319

 

22,979

 

25,896

 

30,566

 

35,039

 

35,158

 

32,629

 

28,975

 

30,566

 

28,975

 

Total

 

$

73,738

 

$

78,227

 

$

88,705

 

$

103,021

 

$

115,970

 

$

130,576

 

$

132,084

 

$

132,026

 

$

103,021

 

$

132,026

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Net present value of installment premiums in force (d), (1)

 

$

425.3

 

$

459.1

 

$

533.8

 

$

639.2

 

$

715.8

 

$

763.5

 

$

649.3

 

$

666.3

 

$

639.2

 

$

666.3

 

Unearned premium reserve, net of ceded reinsurance

 

146.1

 

177.0

 

197.7

 

227.8

 

354.4

 

526.2

 

569.4

 

612.4

 

227.8

 

612.4

 

Unearned credit derivative revenues, net of ceded reinsurance

 

10.7

 

10.9

 

13.2

 

16.1

 

16.7

 

18.4

 

14.2

 

19.7

 

16.1

 

19.7

 

 


(1) March 31, 2008, June 30, 2008, September 30, 2008 and December 31, 2008 amounts include $481.7 million, $531.6 million, $408.0 million and $436.9 million, respectively, related to credit derivatives.

Note: Please refer to endnotes for explanation of non-GAAP financial measures [PVP (a) and net present value of estimated future installment premiums in force (d)].

 

7



Table of Contents

 

Assured Guaranty Ltd.

Financial Guaranty Reinsurance Segment (1)  (1 of 2)

(dollars in millions)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Full Year

 

Full Year

 

 

 

1Q-07

 

2Q-07

 

3Q-07

 

4Q-07

 

1Q-08

 

2Q-08

 

3Q-08

 

4Q-08

 

2007

 

2008

 

PVP(a):

 

$

23.1

 

$

21.3

 

$

32.8

 

$

320.7

 

$

21.4

 

$

37.5

 

$

57.2

 

$

6.2

 

$

397.8

 

$

122.3

 

Less: PVP of credit derivatives GWP

 

 

 

 

 

1.9

 

 

1.1

 

 

 

3.0

 

PVP of financial guaranty GWP

 

23.1

 

21.3

 

32.8

 

320.7

 

19.5

 

37.5

 

56.1

 

6.2

 

397.8

 

119.2

 

Less: Present value of financial guaranty installment premiums (a)

 

14.2

 

4.2

 

18.3

 

151.1

 

2.4

 

6.1

 

7.5

 

3.7

 

187.8

 

19.6

 

Upfront financial guaranty gross written premiums (GWP)

 

8.9

 

17.1

 

14.5

 

169.5

 

17.1

 

31.4

 

48.6

 

2.5

 

210.0

 

99.6

 

Plus: Upfront premium due to commutation (2)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

(20.8

)

 

 

(20.8

)

Plus: Financial guaranty installment GWP

 

9.8

 

8.4

 

9.3

 

13.5

 

8.3

 

16.6

 

13.4

 

12.1

 

41.1

 

50.5

 

Financial guaranty reinsurance GWP

 

$

18.7

 

$

25.5

 

$

23.8

 

$

183.0

 

$

25.4

 

$

48.0

 

$

41.2

 

$

14.7

 

$

251.0

 

$

129.3

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Income statement:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Gross written premiums:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Treaty

 

$

14.2

 

$

16.9

 

$

15.8

 

$

19.1

 

$

11.8

 

$

17.9

 

$

0.4

 

$

7.8

 

$

66.0

 

$

37.9

 

Facultative

 

4.5

 

8.6

 

8.0

 

163.9

 

13.6

 

30.1

 

40.8

 

6.9

 

185.0

 

91.4

 

Total gross written premiums

 

$

18.7

 

$

25.5

 

$

23.8

 

$

183.0

 

$

25.4

 

$

48.0

 

$

41.2

 

$

14.7

 

$

251.0

 

$

129.3

 

Net written premiums

 

18.5

 

25.5

 

23.8

 

183.0

 

25.1

 

48.0

 

41.2

 

14.7

 

250.8

 

129.1

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Net earned premiums:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Scheduled net earned premiums

 

18.7

 

17.3

 

18.1

 

20.0

 

25.4

 

27.5

 

25.7

 

26.7

 

74.1

 

105.3

 

Net earned premiums from refundings

 

3.2

 

6.4

 

3.5

 

1.7

 

2.4

 

2.1

 

31.7

 

24.4

 

14.8

 

60.6

 

Total net earned premiums

 

21.9

 

23.7

 

21.6

 

21.7

 

27.8

 

29.6

 

57.4

 

51.1

 

88.9

 

165.9

 

Realized gains and other settlements on credit derivatives:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Net credit derivative premiums earned

 

 

 

 

 

0.5

 

0.8

 

2.1

 

1.5

 

 

4.9

 

Net credit derivative recoveries (losses)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Ceding commissions income (expense), net

 

 

 

 

 

(0.2

)

(0.3

)

(0.7

)

(0.4

)

 

(1.5

)

Total realized gains and other settlements on credit derivatives

 

 

 

 

 

0.3

 

0.6

 

1.4

 

1.1

 

 

3.4

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Total revenues

 

21.9

 

23.7

 

21.6

 

21.7

 

28.1

 

30.2

 

58.8

 

52.2

 

88.9

 

169.3

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Loss and loss adjustment expenses (recoveries):

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Case

 

(7.3

)

(2.4

)

2.8

 

(3.6

)

11.7

 

17.2

 

18.0

 

23.9

 

(10.5

)

70.9

 

Portfolio

 

2.5

 

(8.6

)

(6.2

)

(1.3

)

7.4

 

(5.9

)

(2.5

)

(1.5

)

(13.6

)

(2.5

)

Total loss and loss adjustment expenses (recoveries) - financial guaranty

 

(4.8

)

(11.0

)

(3.4

)

(4.8

)

19.2

 

11.3

 

15.5

 

22.4

 

(24.1

)

68.4

 

Incurred losses on credit derivatives

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

5.4

 

 

5.4

 

Total loss and loss adjustment expenses (recoveries)

 

(4.8

)

(11.0

)

(3.4

)

(4.8

)

19.2

 

11.3

 

15.5

 

27.8

 

(24.1

)

73.8

 

Profit commission expense

 

0.9

 

0.5

 

0.8

 

0.5

 

1.1

 

0.9

 

(1.5

)

0.5

 

2.7

 

1.0

 

Acquisition costs

 

7.7

 

8.6

 

7.7

 

7.3

 

8.8

 

8.6

 

15.1

 

14.2

 

31.3

 

46.6

 

Operating expenses

 

4.4

 

3.9

 

4.5

 

4.5

 

6.4

 

4.0

 

5.6

 

3.7

 

17.3

 

19.7

 

Total expenses

 

$

8.3

 

$

2.0

 

$

9.6

 

$

7.5

 

$

35.5

 

$

24.8

 

$

34.8

 

$

46.1

 

$

27.3

 

$

141.2

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Underwriting gain (loss)

 

$

13.6

 

$

21.7

 

$

12.1

 

$

14.2

 

$

(7.3

)

$

5.4

 

$

24.0

 

$

6.1

 

$

61.6

 

$

28.1

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Loss and loss adjustment expense ratio (e)

 

(21.9

)%

(46.4

)%

(15.9

)%

(22.3

)%

67.8

%

37.1

%

26.1

%

52.8

%

(27.1

)%

43.2

%

Expense ratio (e)

 

59.6

%

54.9

%

60.1

%

56.7

%

58.1

%

45.2

%

33.5

%

35.6

%

57.7

%

40.3

%

Combined ratio (e)

 

37.7

%

8.5

%

44.2

%

34.4

%

125.9

%

82.3

%

59.6

%

88.4

%

30.6

%

83.5

%

 


(1) Due to the timing of receiving reports prepared by Assured’s ceding companies, PVP for installment premiums, par written and par outstanding on treaty business in the Company’s Financial Guaranty Reinsurance segment are reported on a one-quarter lag.

 

(2) Relates to commutation of XLFA of approximately $2.1 billion par value of business.

 

Note: Please refer to endnotes for explanation of non-GAAP financial measures [PVP (a) and loss and loss adjustment expense ratio, expense ratio and combined ratio (e)].

 

8



Table of Contents

 

Assured Guaranty Ltd.

Financial Guaranty Reinsurance Segment (1) (2 of 2)

(dollars in millions)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Full Year

 

Full Year

 

 

 

1Q-07

 

2Q-07

 

3Q-07

 

4Q-07

 

1Q-08

 

2Q-08

 

3Q-08

 

4Q-08

 

2007

 

2008

 

PVP (a):

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

U.S. public finance

 

$

4.7

 

$

14.1

 

$

10.0

 

$

272.7

 

$

17.6

 

$

29.0

 

$

39.5

 

$

6.2

 

$

301.5

 

$

92.3

 

U.S. structured finance

 

3.9

 

2.5

 

3.0

 

22.9

 

2.9

 

4.2

 

 

 

32.4

 

7.2

 

International

 

14.4

 

4.7

 

19.8

 

25.0

 

0.9

 

4.2

 

17.7

 

 

63.9

 

22.8

 

Total

 

$

23.1

 

$

21.3

 

$

32.8

 

$

320.7

 

$

21.4

 

$

37.5

 

$

57.2

 

$

6.2

 

$

397.8

 

$

122.3

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Gross par written:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

U.S. public finance

 

$

754

 

$

1,845

 

$

1,344

 

$

26,598

 

$

2,503

 

$

1,492

 

$

2,154

 

$

162

 

$

30,541

 

$

6,312

 

U.S. structured finance

 

496

 

491

 

472

 

3,195

 

367

 

283

 

6

 

 

4,655

 

656

 

International

 

537

 

152

 

550

 

3,888

 

370

 

131

 

1,122

 

(18

)

5,127

 

1,604

 

Total

 

$

1,787

 

$

2,488

 

$

2,366

 

$

33,681

 

$

3,240

 

$

1,906

 

$

3,282

 

$

144

 

$

40,324

 

$

8,573

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Net par outstanding:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

U.S. public finance

 

$

48,929

 

$

48,801

 

$

48,832

 

$

74,409

 

$

75,382

 

$

76,003

 

$

72,695

 

$

69,860

 

$

74,409

 

$

69,860

 

U.S. structured finance

 

6,945

 

6,809

 

6,155

 

8,869

 

9,567

 

10,139

 

9,216

 

8,783

 

8,869

 

8,783

 

International

 

9,240

 

9,318

 

10,002

 

13,980

 

13,957

 

13,684

 

13,347

 

12,052

 

13,980

 

12,052

 

Total

 

$

65,115

 

$

64,928

 

$

64,989

 

$

97,258

 

$

98,906

 

$

99,826

 

$

95,258

 

$

90,696

 

$

97,258

 

$

90,696

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Net present value of installment premiums in force (d), (2)

 

$

160.2

 

$

155.1

 

$

151.4

 

$

277.0

 

$

276.7

 

$

270.0

 

$

264.6

 

$

243.3

 

$

277.0

 

$

243.3

 

Unearned premium reserve, net of ceded reinsurance

 

460.9

 

462.9

 

465.0

 

626.3

 

623.7

 

642.1

 

625.9

 

589.6

 

626.3

 

589.6

 

Unearned credit derivative revenues, net of ceded reinsurance

 

 

 

 

 

4.6

 

4.8

 

4.4

 

3.6

 

 

3.6

 

 


(1) Due to the timing of receiving reports prepared by Assured’s ceding companies, present value of financial guaranty gross written premiums (PVP) for installment premiums, par written and par outstanding on treaty business in the Company’s Financial Guaranty Reinsurance segment are reported on a one-quarter lag.

 

(2) March 31, 2008, June 30, 2008, September 30, 2008 and December 31, 2008 amounts include $15.5 million, $11.8 million, $11.2 million and $10.1 million, respectively, related to credit derivatives.

 

Note: Please refer to endnotes for explanation of non-GAAP financial measures [PVP (a) and net present value of estimated future installment premiums in force (d)].

 

9



Table of Contents

 

Assured Guaranty Ltd.

Mortgage Guaranty Segment

(dollars in millions)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Full Year

 

Full Year

 

 

 

1Q-07

 

2Q-07

 

3Q-07

 

4Q-07

 

1Q-08

 

2Q-08

 

3Q-08

 

4Q-08

 

2007

 

2008

 

PVP (a):

 

$

 

$

 

$

 

$

 

$

 

$

 

$

 

$

 

$

 

$

 

Less: Present value of installment premiums (a)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Upfront gross written premiums (GWP)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Plus: Installment GWP

 

1.0

 

0.5

 

1.4

 

(0.2

)

0.5

 

 

0.2

 

 

2.7

 

0.7

 

Mortgage guaranty GWP

 

$

1.0

 

$

0.5

 

$

1.4

 

$

(0.2

)

$

0.5

 

$

 

$

0.2

 

$

 

$

2.7

 

$

0.7

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Income statement:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Gross written premiums

 

$

1.0

 

$

0.5

 

$

1.4

 

$

(0.2

)

$

0.5

 

$

 

$

0.2

 

$

 

$

2.7

 

$

0.7

 

Net written premiums

 

1.0

 

0.5

 

1.4

 

(0.2

)

0.5

 

 

0.2

 

 

2.7

 

0.7

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Net earned premiums

 

3.1

 

2.3

 

2.9

 

9.2

 

1.9

 

1.3

 

1.2

 

1.3

 

17.5

 

5.7

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Loss and loss adjustment expenses (recoveries):

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Case

 

 

 

 

 

 

0.1

 

1.0

 

1.2

 

 

2.3

 

Portfolio and IBNR

 

0.1

 

0.1

 

0.8

 

(0.4

)

 

 

 

(0.3

)

0.6

 

(0.3

)

Total loss and loss adjustment expenses (recoveries)

 

0.1

 

0.1

 

0.8

 

(0.4

)

 

0.1

 

1.0

 

0.9

 

0.6

 

2.0

 

Profit commission expense

 

0.7

 

0.4

 

0.4

 

2.4

 

0.1

 

0.1

 

0.1

 

0.1

 

3.8

 

0.4

 

Acquisition costs

 

0.2

 

 

0.2

 

1.2

 

0.1

 

0.1

 

0.1

 

0.2

 

1.6

 

0.5

 

Operating expenses

 

0.3

 

0.5

 

0.3

 

1.0

 

0.9

 

0.5

 

0.5

 

0.3

 

2.0

 

2.2

 

Total expenses

 

$

1.3

 

$

1.0

 

$

1.6

 

$

4.2

 

$

1.1

 

$

0.8

 

$

1.7

 

$

1.4

 

$

8.1

 

$

5.1

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Underwriting gain (loss)

 

$

1.8

 

$

1.3

 

$

1.3

 

$

5.0

 

$

0.8

 

$

0.5

 

$

(0.5

)

$

(0.1

)

$

9.4

 

$

0.6

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Loss and loss adjustment expense ratio (e)

 

3.3

%

4.3

%

26.5

%

(4.3

)%

0.0

%

7.9

%

81.0

%

69.2

%

3.3

%

35.1

%

Expense ratio (e)

 

37.8

%

39.1

%

27.5

%

50.3

%

57.9

%

55.1

%

59.3

%

41.5

%

42.9

%

53.9

%

Combined ratio (e)

 

41.1

%

43.4

%

54.0

%

46.0

%

57.9

%

63.0

%

140.3

%

110.7

%

46.2

%

89.0

%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Risk in force

 

$

1,374

 

$

1,398

 

$

1,374

 

$

1,116

 

$

857

 

$

844

 

$

702

 

$

400

 

$

1,116

 

$

400

 

Risk written

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Unearned premium reserve net of ceded reinsurance

 

33.5

 

31.6

 

30.1

 

20.8

 

19.4

 

18.1

 

17.1

 

15.8

 

20.8

 

15.8

 

 

Note: Please refer to endnotes for explanation of non-GAAP financial measures [PVP (a) and loss and loss adjustment expense ratio, expense ratio and combined ratio (e)].

 

10



Table of Contents

 

Assured Guaranty Ltd.

Other Segment

(dollars in millions)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Full Year

 

Full Year

 

 

 

1Q-07

 

2Q-07

 

3Q-07

 

4Q-07

 

1Q-08

 

2Q-08

 

3Q-08

 

4Q-08

 

2007

 

2008

 

Income statement:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Gross written premiums

 

$

3.3

 

$

0.1

 

$

0.1

 

$

 

$

3.5

 

$

 

$

 

$

 

$

3.5

 

$

3.5

 

Net written premiums

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Net earned premiums

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Realized gains and other settlements on credit derivatives:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Net credit derivative premiums earned

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Net credit derivative recoveries (losses)

 

1.3

 

 

 

 

 

0.4

 

 

 

1.3

 

0.4

 

Total realized gains and other settlements on credit derivatives

 

1.3

 

 

 

 

 

0.4

 

 

 

1.3

 

0.4

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Total revenues

 

1.3

 

 

 

 

 

0.4

 

 

 

1.3

 

0.4

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Loss and loss adjustment expenses (recoveries)

 

 

 

 

 

 

(1.5

)

 

 

 

(1.5

)

Incurred losses on credit derivatives

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Total loss and loss adjustment expenses (recoveries)

 

 

 

 

 

 

(1.5

)

 

 

 

(1.5

)

Profit commission expense

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Acquisition costs

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Operating expenses

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Total expenses

 

$

 

$

 

$

 

$

 

$

 

$

(1.5

)

$

 

$

 

$

 

$

(1.5

)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Underwriting gain

 

$

1.3

 

$

 

$

 

$

 

$

 

$

1.9

 

$

 

$

 

$

1.3

 

$

1.9

 

 

11


 


Table of Contents

 

Assured Guaranty Ltd.

Loss and Loss Adjustment Expense (“LAE”) Reserves by Segment/Type

(dollars in millions)

 

 

 

As of December 31, 2008

 

 

 

Financial

 

Financial

 

 

 

Total

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Guaranty

 

Guaranty

 

Mortgage

 

Financial

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Direct

 

Reinsurance

 

Guaranty

 

Guaranty

 

Other

 

Total

 

Financial guaranty insurance reserves by segment and type:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Case

 

$

64.2

 

$

55.7

 

$

0.1

 

$

120.0

 

$

1.5

 

$

121.5

 

Incurred but not reported (“IBNR”)

 

 

 

 

 

3.0

 

3.0

 

Portfolio reserves associated with fundamentally sound credits

 

11.8

 

35.5

 

2.5

 

49.8

 

 

49.8

 

Portfolio reserves on closely monitored credits (“CMC”) list

 

15.8

 

6.7

 

 

22.5

 

 

22.5

 

Total financial guaranty insurance loss and LAE reserves

 

$

91.8

 

$

97.9

 

$

2.6

 

$

192.3

 

$

4.5

 

$

196.8

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Credit derivative reserves by segment and type:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Case

 

$

7.2

 

$

5.5

 

$

 

$

12.7

 

$

 

$

12.7

 

Plus: Credit derivative portfolio reserves associated with fundamentally sound credits

 

15.7

 

 

 

15.7

 

 

15.7

 

Plus: Credit derivative portfolio reserves on CMC list

 

23.4

 

 

 

23.4

 

 

23.4

 

Total credit derivative reserves

 

$

46.3

 

$

5.5

 

$

 

$

51.8

 

$

 

$

51.8

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Total loss and LAE reserves

 

$

138.1

 

$

103.4

 

$

2.6

 

$

244.1

 

$

4.5

 

$

248.6

 

 

12



Table of Contents

 

Assured Guaranty Ltd.

Loss and Loss Adjustment Expenses

As of December 31, 2008

(dollars in millions)

 

 

 

Total

 

 

 

 

 

Loss and Loss

 

 

 

Net Par

 

4Q-08

 

Full Year 2008

 

Adjustment

 

 

 

Outstanding

 

Incurred Losses(2)

 

Incurred Losses(2)

 

Expense Reserves(3)

 

Financial Guaranty Direct: (1)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Prime First Lien

 

$

1,620

 

$

0.1

 

$

0.9

 

$

1.9

 

Prime Closed End Seconds

 

424

 

24.0

 

53.9

 

37.7

 

Prime HELOC

 

1,242

 

22.0

 

120.3

 

0.9

 

Alt-A First Lien

 

6,193

 

14.4

 

21.3

 

21.7

 

Alt-A Option ARMs

 

1,410

 

1.4

 

1.4

 

1.4

 

Subprime First Lien

 

6,430

 

5.1

 

20.8

 

26.1

 

Total U.S. RMBS

 

17,319

 

67.0

 

218.6

 

89.7

 

Other structured

 

67,644

 

18.5

 

14.9

 

46.0

 

Public finance

 

47,063

 

0.7

 

1.6

 

2.4

 

Total Financial Guaranty Direct

 

$

132,026

 

$

86.2

 

$

235.1

 

$

138.1

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Financial Guaranty Reinsurance: (1)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Prime First Lien

 

$

339

 

$

1.4

 

$

2.4

 

$

2.9

 

Prime Closed End Seconds

 

9

 

 

1.6

 

 

Prime HELOC

 

496

 

2.0

 

48.5

 

6.6

 

Alt-A First Lien

 

25

 

1.3

 

1.5

 

1.5

 

Alt-A Option ARMs

 

1

 

 

 

 

Subprime First Lien

 

203

 

3.2

 

4.0

 

9.7

 

Total U.S. RMBS

 

1,074

 

7.9

 

57.9

 

20.7

 

Other structured

 

10,864

 

5.9

 

0.2

 

48.0

 

Public finance

 

78,759

 

14.0

 

15.7

 

34.7

 

Total Financial Guaranty Reinsurance

 

$

90,696

 

$

27.8

 

$

73.8

 

$

103.4

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Total Financial Guaranty Direct and Reinsurance: (1)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Prime First Lien

 

$

1,959

 

$

1.5

 

$

3.3

 

$

4.7

 

Prime Closed End Seconds

 

433

 

24.0

 

55.5

 

37.7

 

Prime HELOC

 

1,738

 

24.0

 

168.8

 

7.5

 

Alt-A First Lien

 

6,218

 

15.7

 

22.8

 

23.2

 

Alt-A Option ARMs

 

1,411

 

1.4

 

1.4

 

1.4

 

Subprime First Lien

 

6,633

 

8.3

 

24.7

 

35.8

 

Total U.S. RMBS

 

18,393

 

74.8

 

276.5

 

110.4

 

Other structured

 

78,508

 

24.4

 

15.1

 

94.0

 

Public finance

 

125,822

 

14.7

 

17.3

 

37.1

 

Total Financial Guaranty Direct and Reinsurance

 

$

222,722

 

$

113.9

 

$

308.9

 

$

241.5

 

 


(1) Includes financial guaranty (FG) and insured derivatives in the insured portfolio.

(2) Includes loss and loss adjustment expenses (recoveries) and incurred losses on credit derivatives, for the financial guaranty direct and reinsurance segments only.

(3) Includes loss and loss adjustment expense reserves for financial guaranty and credit derivatives, for the financial guaranty direct and reinsurance segments only.

 

13



Table of Contents

 

Assured Guaranty Ltd.

Investment Portfolio

As of December 31, 2008

(dollars in millions)

 

 

 

 

 

Pre-Tax

 

After-Tax

 

 

 

Annualized

 

 

 

Amortized

 

Book

 

Book

 

Fair

 

Investment

 

 

 

Cost

 

Yield

 

Yield

 

Value

 

Income

 

Fixed maturity securities available for sale:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

U.S. Treasury securities and obligations of U.S. government agencies

 

$

157.5

 

4.4

%

3.9

%

$

180.6

 

$

7.0

 

Agency obligations

 

269.1

 

4.8

%

4.5

%

295.3

 

13.0

 

Foreign government securities

 

50.3

 

4.6

%

3.0

%

54.5

 

2.3

 

Obligations of states and political subdivisions

 

584.6

 

4.7

%

4.4

%

576.6

 

27.2

 

Insured obligations of state and political subdivisions (1)

 

651.4

 

4.7

%

4.4

%

641.1

 

30.3

 

Corporate securities

 

274.2

 

6.1

%

5.2

%

268.2

 

16.8

 

Mortgage-backed securities (2):

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Pass-throughs

 

1,025.8

 

5.7

%

5.2

%

998.7

 

58.0

 

PACs

 

56.1

 

4.9

%

4.6

%

53.1

 

2.8

 

Asset-backed securities (3)

 

80.7

 

5.3

%

4.6

%

73.6

 

4.3

 

Preferred stock

 

12.6

 

8.0

%

6.8

%

12.4

 

1.0

 

Total fixed maturity securities available for sale

 

3,162.3

 

5.1

%

4.7

%

3,154.1

 

162.5

 

Short-term investments

 

477.2

 

1.0

%

0.8

%

477.2

 

4.8

 

Total investments

 

$

3,639.5

 

4.6

%

4.2

%

$

3,631.3

 

$

167.3

 

 

 

 

Fair

 

 

 

Ratings (4):

 

Value

 

%

 

Treasury and U.S. government obligations

 

$

180.6

 

5.7

%

Agency obligations

 

295.3

 

9.4

%

AAA/Aaa

 

1,383.9

 

43.9

%

AA/Aa

 

752.1

 

23.8

%

A/A

 

488.8

 

15.5

%

BBB

 

52.4

 

1.7

%

Below investment grade

 

1.0

 

0.0

%

Total

 

$

3,154.1

 

100.0

%

 

 

 

 

 

 

Duration of investment portfolio (in years):

 

 

 

4.1

 

 


(1)

Reflects obligations of state and local political subdivisions that have been insured by other financial guarantors. The underlying

ratings of these bonds average A+.

(2)

$2.3 million is U.S. subprime RMBS, which has an average rating of AAA.

(3)

Contains no CDOs of ABS.

(4)

Ratings are represented by the lower of the Moody’s Investor Services and Standard & Poor’s classifications.

 

14



Table of Contents

 

Assured Guaranty Ltd.

Estimated Net Exposure Amortization (1)

(dollars in millions)

 

 

 

 

 

Estimated

 

 

 

Estimated Net

 

Ending Net

 

 

 

Debt Service

 

Debt Service

 

 

 

Amortization

 

Outstanding

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Financial Guaranty Direct:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2008 (as of December 31)

 

 

 

$

192,265

 

2009

 

$

12,178

 

180,087

 

2010

 

13,269

 

166,819

 

2011

 

14,098

 

152,720

 

2012

 

18,426

 

134,294

 

2013

 

14,910

 

119,384

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2009-2013

 

72,882

 

119,384

 

2014-2018

 

54,999

 

64,384

 

2019-2023

 

22,421

 

41,964

 

2024-2028

 

14,433

 

27,531

 

After 2028

 

27,531

 

 

Total

 

$

192,265

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Financial Guaranty Reinsurance:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2008 (as of December 31)

 

 

 

$

156,551

 

2009

 

$

7,709

 

148,842

 

2010

 

7,144

 

141,698

 

2011

 

7,762

 

133,936

 

2012

 

7,184

 

126,752

 

2013

 

6,896

 

119,856

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2009-2013

 

36,695

 

119,856

 

2014-2018

 

33,494

 

86,361

 

2019-2023

 

28,457

 

57,904

 

2024-2028

 

21,882

 

36,022

 

After 2028

 

36,022

 

 

Total

 

$

156,551

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Total Financial Guaranty:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2008 (as of December 31)

 

 

 

$

348,816

 

2009

 

$

19,887

 

328,929

 

2010

 

20,413

 

308,516

 

2011

 

21,860

 

286,656

 

2012

 

25,610

 

261,046

 

2013

 

21,806

 

239,239

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2009-2013

 

109,577

 

239,239

 

2014-2018

 

88,494

 

150,746

 

2019-2023

 

50,878

 

99,868

 

2024-2028

 

36,315

 

63,553

 

After 2028

 

63,553

 

 

Total

 

$

348,816

 

 

 

 


(1) Represents amortization of existing guaranteed portfolio (principal and interest), assuming no advance refundings, as of December 31, 2008. Expected maturities will differ from contractual maturities because borrowers may have the right to call or prepay guaranteed obligations.

 

15



Table of Contents

 

Assured Guaranty Ltd.

Estimated Net Unearned Premium Amortization and Estimated Net Future Installment Premiums

(dollars in millions)

 

 

 

 

 

Estimated

 

 

 

Total Estimated

 

 

 

 

 

Net Unearned

 

Estimated

 

Net Future

 

 

 

Net Unearned

 

Premium

 

Net Future

 

Premium

 

 

 

Premiums (1), (2)

 

Amortization (2)

 

Installments (2)

 

Earnings (2)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Financial Guaranty Direct:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2008 (as of December 31)

 

$

632.1

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2009

 

570.7

 

$

61.4

 

$

148.0

 

$

209.4

 

2010

 

531.3

 

39.4

 

140.3

 

179.7

 

2011

 

494.6

 

36.7

 

126.7

 

163.4

 

2012

 

461.2

 

33.4

 

108.0

 

141.4

 

2013

 

429.6

 

31.6

 

78.2

 

109.8

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2009-2013

 

429.6

 

202.5

 

601.2

 

803.7

 

2014-2018

 

295.5

 

134.1

 

150.0

 

284.1

 

2019-2023

 

195.8

 

99.8

 

41.1

 

140.9

 

2024-2028

 

123.9

 

71.9

 

16.4

 

88.3

 

After 2028

 

 

123.9

 

18.7

 

142.7

 

Total

 

 

 

$

632.2

 

$

827.4

 

$

1,459.6

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Financial Guaranty Reinsurance:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2008 (as of December 31)

 

$

593.2

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2009

 

534.4

 

$

58.8

 

$

40.7

 

$

99.5

 

2010

 

489.9

 

44.5

 

46.1

 

90.6

 

2011

 

449.7

 

40.2

 

39.3

 

79.5

 

2012

 

412.5

 

37.2

 

32.4

 

69.6

 

2013

 

377.6

 

34.9

 

29.1

 

64.0

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2009-2013

 

377.6

 

215.6

 

187.6

 

403.2

 

2014-2018

 

234.7

 

142.8

 

107.3

 

250.1

 

2019-2023

 

137.1

 

97.6

 

81.2

 

178.8

 

2024-2028

 

71.4

 

65.7

 

56.7

 

122.5

 

After 2028

 

 

71.4

 

77.0

 

148.4

 

Total

 

 

 

$

593.2

 

$

509.8

 

$

1,103.0

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Total Financial Guaranty:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2008 (as of December 31)

 

$

1,225.3

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2009

 

1,105.1

 

$

120.3

 

$

188.7

 

$

308.9

 

2010

 

1,021.1

 

83.9

 

186.4

 

270.3

 

2011

 

944.3

 

76.9

 

166.0

 

242.9

 

2012

 

873.7

 

70.6

 

140.4

 

211.0

 

2013

 

807.2

 

66.5

 

107.3

 

173.8

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2009-2013

 

807.2

 

418.1

 

788.8

 

1,206.9

 

2014-2018

 

530.3

 

277.0

 

257.2

 

534.2

 

2019-2023

 

332.9

 

197.4

 

122.3

 

319.6

 

2024-2028

 

195.2

 

137.6

 

73.2

 

210.8

 

After 2028

 

 

195.2

 

95.8

 

291.0

 

Total

 

 

 

$

1,225.3

 

$

1,337.2

 

$

2,562.5

 

 


(1) Unearned premium amounts are U.S. GAAP based and net of prepaid reinsurance premiums and include unearned credit derivative revenues net of ceded amounts.

(2) Includes credit derivatives.

 

16



Table of Contents

 

Assured Guaranty Ltd.

Financial Guaranty Profile (1 of 6)

As of December 31, 2008

(dollars in millions)

 

Net Par Outstanding and Average Rating by Asset Type

 

 

 

Financial Guaranty
Direct

 

Financial Guaranty
Reinsurance

 

Consolidated

 

Sector:

 

Net Par
Outstanding

 

Avg.
Rating (1)

 

Net Par
Outstanding

 

Avg.
Rating (1)

 

Net Par
Outstanding

 

Avg.
Rating (1)

 

U.S. public finance

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

General obligation

 

$

8,522

 

A

 

$

18,525

 

A+

 

$

27,047

 

A+

 

Tax backed

 

10,147

 

A

 

15,716

 

A+

 

25,862

 

A+

 

Municipal utilities

 

5,093

 

A

 

10,511

 

A

 

15,604

 

A

 

Transportation

 

3,873

 

A+

 

8,774

 

A

 

12,647

 

A

 

Healthcare

 

5,455

 

A

 

6,223

 

A+

 

11,678

 

A

 

Higher education

 

2,311

 

A

 

3,020

 

A+

 

5,330

 

A+

 

Investor-owned utilities

 

119

 

A

 

2,037

 

BBB+

 

2,156

 

BBB+

 

Housing

 

 

 

1,981

 

A+

 

1,981

 

A+

 

Other public finance

 

1,943

 

A

 

3,072

 

A+

 

5,015

 

A

 

Total U.S. public finance

 

$

37,461

 

A

 

$

69,860

 

A+

 

$

107,322

 

A+

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

U.S. structured finance

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Pooled corporate obligations

 

$

33,318

 

AAA

 

$

1,363

 

AA+

 

$

34,680

 

AAA

 

Residential mortgage-backed and home equity

 

17,319

 

A

 

1,074

 

BB+

 

18,393

 

A

 

Commercial mortgage-backed securities

 

5,663

 

AAA

 

213

 

A-

 

5,876

 

AAA

 

Consumer receivables

 

2,880

 

AA+

 

2,278

 

A

 

5,158

 

AA

 

Commercial receivables

 

2,214

 

AA-

 

2,731

 

A-

 

4,945

 

A

 

Structured credit

 

2,902

 

A+

 

372

 

BBB

 

3,274

 

A

 

Insurance securitizations

 

1,245

 

AA-

 

348

 

AA

 

1,593

 

AA-

 

Other structured finance

 

49

 

AA-

 

405

 

A-

 

454

 

A-

 

Total U.S. structured finance

 

$

65,589

 

AA

 

$

8,783

 

A

 

$

74,373

 

AA

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

International

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Infrastructure and pooled infrastructure

 

$

5,518

 

AA+

 

$

3,788

 

BBB+

 

$

9,306

 

AA-

 

Pooled corporate obligations

 

7,432

 

AAA

 

951

 

AAA

 

8,383

 

AAA

 

Residential mortgage-backed and home equity

 

8,145

 

AAA

 

104

 

AA

 

8,249

 

AAA

 

Regulated utilities

 

3,443

 

A

 

4,072

 

BBB+

 

7,515

 

A-

 

Commercial receivables

 

886

 

A-

 

828

 

A-

 

1,713

 

A-

 

Public finance

 

641

 

AA

 

1,039

 

A-

 

1,680

 

A

 

Future flow

 

904

 

BBB

 

336

 

BBB

 

1,240

 

BBB

 

Insurance securitizations

 

923

 

CCC-

 

31

 

A

 

954

 

CCC

 

Commercial mortgage-backed securities

 

446

 

AAA

 

349

 

A-

 

795

 

AA-

 

Structured credit

 

 

 

437

 

A-

 

437

 

A-

 

Consumer receivables

 

 

 

109

 

AAA

 

109

 

AAA

 

Other international structured finance

 

636

 

AAA

 

10

 

A

 

646

 

AAA

 

Total international

 

$

28,975

 

AA

 

$

12,052

 

A-

 

$

41,027

 

AA-

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Total net par outstanding

 

$

132,026

 

AA-

 

$

90,696

 

A+

 

$

222,722

 

AA-

 

 


(1) Assured’s internal rating.  Assured’s scale is comparable to that of the nationally recognized rating agencies.  The super senior category, which is not generally used by rating agencies, is used by the Company in instances where Assured’s AAA-rated exposure has additional credit enhancement due to either (1) the existence of another security rated AAA that is subordinated to Assured’s exposure or (2) Assured’s exposure benefits from a different form of credit enhancement that would pay any claims first in the event that any of the exposures incurs a loss, and such credit enhancement, in management’s opinion, causes Assured’s attachment point to be materially above the AAA attachment point.

 

Please refer to Glossary for description of selected types of U.S. public finance, U.S. structured finance and International obligations that the Company insures and reinsures.

 

17



Table of Contents

 

Assured Guaranty Ltd.

Financial Guaranty Profile (2 of 6)

(dollars in millions)

 

Historical Net Par Outstanding and Average Rating by Asset Type

 

 

 

As of December 31,

 

 

 

2008

 

2007

 

2006

 

Sector:

 

Net Par
Outstanding

 

Avg.
Rating (1)

 

Net Par
Outstanding

 

Avg.
Rating (1)

 

Net Par
Outstanding

 

Avg.
Rating (1)

 

U.S. public finance

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

General obligation

 

$

27,047

 

A+

 

$

20,291

 

A+

 

$

12,700

 

A+

 

Tax backed

 

25,862

 

A+

 

17,799

 

A+

 

11,812

 

A+

 

Municipal utilities

 

15,604

 

A

 

11,672

 

A+

 

9,673

 

A+

 

Transportation

 

12,647

 

A

 

9,984

 

A

 

6,302

 

A

 

Healthcare

 

11,678

 

A

 

10,372

 

A

 

6,580

 

A

 

Higher education

 

5,330

 

A+

 

3,651

 

A+

 

1,282

 

A

 

Investor-owned utilities

 

2,156

 

BBB+

 

2,314

 

BBB+

 

1,580

 

BBB+

 

Housing

 

1,981

 

A+

 

2,041

 

A+

 

1,083

 

AA-

 

Other public finance

 

5,015

 

A

 

3,790

 

A+

 

1,323

 

AA-

 

Total U.S. public finance

 

$

107,322

 

A+

 

$

81,914

 

A+

 

$

52,335

 

A+

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

U.S. structured finance

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Pooled corporate obligations

 

$

34,680

 

AAA

 

$

33,813

 

AAA

 

$

25,604

 

AAA

 

Residential mortgage-backed and home equity

 

18,393

 

A

 

18,248

 

AA

 

11,239

 

AA-

 

Commercial mortgage-backed securities

 

5,876

 

AAA

 

6,002

 

AA+

 

5,430

 

AAA

 

Consumer receivables

 

5,158

 

AA

 

6,589

 

AA

 

2,663

 

AA-

 

Commercial receivables

 

4,945

 

A

 

5,246

 

A+

 

2,450

 

A-

 

Structured credit

 

3,274

 

A

 

1,572

 

A-

 

1,553

 

AA+

 

Insurance securitizations

 

1,593

 

AA-

 

1,158

 

AA-

 

794

 

AA-

 

Other structured finance

 

454

 

A-

 

1,191

 

AA

 

1,852

 

AA

 

Total U.S. structured finance

 

$

74,373

 

AA

 

$

73,820

 

AA+

 

$

51,583

 

AA+

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

International

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Infrastructure and pooled infrastructure

 

$

9,306

 

AA-

 

$

11,561

 

AA-

 

$

8,256

 

AA-

 

Pooled corporate obligations

 

8,383

 

AAA

 

8,459

 

AAA

 

3,563

 

AAA

 

Residential mortgage-backed and home equity

 

8,249

 

AAA

 

7,329

 

AAA

 

4,982

 

AAA

 

Regulated utilities

 

7,515

 

A-

 

8,337

 

A-

 

4,780

 

A-

 

Commercial receivables

 

1,713

 

A-

 

1,913

 

A-

 

1,081

 

A-

 

Public finance

 

1,680

 

A

 

1,996

 

A+

 

1,202

 

A+

 

Future flow

 

1,240

 

BBB

 

1,113

 

BBB+

 

1,008

 

BBB

 

Insurance securitizations

 

954

 

CCC

 

857

 

BBB-

 

923

 

A-

 

Commercial mortgage-backed securities

 

795

 

AA-

 

1,240

 

AA+

 

1,087

 

AAA

 

Structured credit

 

437

 

A-

 

592

 

A-

 

593

 

A

 

Consumer receivables

 

109

 

AAA

 

357

 

AA+

 

114

 

BBB+

 

Other international structured finance

 

646

 

AAA

 

794

 

AA+

 

788

 

AA+

 

Total international

 

$

41,027

 

AA-

 

$

44,546

 

AA-

 

$

28,378

 

AA-

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Total exposures

 

$

222,722

 

AA-

 

$

200,279

 

AA-

 

$

132,296

 

AA-

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Mortgage guaranty risk in force

 

$

400

 

NA

 

$

1,116

 

NA

 

$

1,822

 

NA

 

 


(1) Assured’s internal rating.  Assured’s scale is comparable to that of the nationally recognized rating agencies.  The super senior category, which is not generally used by rating agencies, is used by the Company in instances where Assured’s AAA-rated exposure has additional credit enhancement due to either (1) the existence of another security rated AAA that is subordinated to Assured’s exposure or (2) Assured’s exposure benefits from a different form of credit enhancement that would pay any claims first in the event that any of the exposures incurs a loss, and such credit enhancement, in management’s opinion, causes Assured’s attachment point to be materially above the AAA attachment point.

 

Please refer to Glossary for description of selected types of U.S. public finance, U.S. structured finance and International obligations that the Company insures and reinsures.

 

NA = Not Applicable

 

18



Table of Contents

 

Assured Guaranty Ltd.

Financial Guaranty Profile (3 of 6)

(dollars in millions)

 

Gross Par Written by Asset Type

 

 

 

Financial
Guaranty
Direct

 

Avg.
Rating (1)

 

Financial
Guaranty
Reinsurance

 

Avg.
 Rating (1)

 

Consolidated

 

Avg.
Rating (1)

 

Sector:

 

4Q-08

 

4Q-08

 

4Q-08

 

U.S. public finance

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

General obligation

 

$

1,583

 

A+

 

$

89

 

AA-

 

$

1,672

 

A+

 

Tax backed

 

1,253

 

A

 

13

 

A+

 

1,266

 

A

 

Healthcare

 

673

 

A

 

1

 

A+

 

674

 

A

 

Transportation

 

615

 

A+

 

0

 

BBB+

 

615

 

A+

 

Municipal utilities

 

302

 

A

 

60

 

A+

 

362

 

A

 

Higher education

 

216

 

A

 

2

 

AA-

 

219

 

A

 

Investor-owned utilities

 

 

 

(4

)

A-

 

(4

)

A-

 

Housing

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Other public finance

 

110

 

A

 

 

 

110

 

A

 

Total U.S. public finance

 

$

4,752

 

A

 

$

162

 

AA-

 

$

4,914

 

A

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

U.S. structured finance

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Pooled corporate obligations

 

$

1,026

 

AAA

 

$

 

 

$

1,026

 

AAA

 

Structured credit

 

1,000

 

AAA

 

 

 

1,000

 

AAA

 

Commercial mortgage-backed securities

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Commercial receivables

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Consumer receivables

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Insurance securitization

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Residential mortgage-backed and home equity

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Other structured finance

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Total U.S. structured finance

 

$

2,026

 

AAA

 

$

 

 

$

2,026

 

AAA

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

International

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Pooled corporate obligations

 

$

359

 

AAA

 

$

 

 

$

359

 

AAA

 

Regulated utilities

 

 

 

(18

)

BBB-

 

(18

)

BBB-

 

Public finance

 

 

 

(0

)

A+

 

(0

)

A+

 

Commercial mortgage-backed securities

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Commercial receivables

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Consumer receivables

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Future flow

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Infrastructure and pooled infrastructure

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Insurance securitizations

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Residential mortgage-backed and home equity

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Structured credit

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Other international structured finance

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Total international

 

$

359

 

AAA

 

$

(18

)

BBB

 

$

341

 

AAA

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Total gross par written

 

$

7,137

 

AA-

 

$

144

 

AA-

 

$

7,281

 

AA-

 

 


(1) Assured’s internal rating. Assured’s scale is comparable to that of the nationally recognized rating agencies. The super senior category, which is not generally used by rating agencies, is used by the Company in instances where Assured’s AAA-rated exposure has additional credit enhancement due to either (1) the existence of another security rated AAA that is subordinated to Assured’s exposure or (2) Assured’s exposure benefits from a different form of credit enhancement that would pay any claims first in the event that any of the exposures incurs a loss, and such credit enhancement, in management’s opinion, causes Assured’s attachment point to be materially above the AAA attachment point.

 

Please refer to Glossary for description of selected types of U.S. public finance, U.S. structured finance and International obligations that the Company insures and reinsures.

 

19



Table of Contents

 

Assured Guaranty Ltd.

Financial Guaranty Profile (4 of 6)

(dollars in millions)

 

Gross Par Written by Asset Type

 

 

 

 

Financial
Guaranty
Direct

 

Avg.
Rating (1)

 

Financial
Guaranty
Reinsurance

 

Avg.
Rating (1)

 

Consolidated

 

Avg.
Rating (1)

 

Sector:

 

Full Year 2008

 

Full Year 2008

 

Full Year 2008

 

U.S. public finance

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Tax backed

 

$

8,307

 

A+

 

$

1,139

 

AA-

 

$

9,447

 

A+

 

General obligation

 

6,538

 

A+

 

2,544

 

A+

 

9,082

 

A+

 

Municipal utilities

 

4,901

 

A

 

748

 

A

 

5,649

 

A

 

Healthcare

 

3,659

 

A

 

847

 

A+

 

4,506

 

A

 

Transportation

 

3,502

 

A+

 

894

 

A+

 

4,397

 

A+

 

Higher education

 

1,755

 

A

 

74

 

AA-

 

1,829

 

A

 

Investor-owned utilities

 

80

 

BBB+

 

11

 

A-

 

91

 

BBB+

 

Housing

 

 

 

54

 

AA

 

54

 

AA

 

Other public finance

 

1,966

 

A

 

1

 

AA-

 

1,967

 

A

 

Total U.S. public finance

 

$

30,710

 

A

 

$

6,312

 

A+

 

$

37,022

 

A

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

U.S. structured finance

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Pooled corporate obligations

 

$

3,684

 

AAA

 

$

133

 

AA+

 

$

3,817

 

AAA

 

Residential mortgage-backed and home equity

 

3,034

 

AAA

 

155

 

A+

 

3,189

 

AAA

 

Structured credit

 

2,850

 

AA+

 

 

 

2,850

 

AA+

 

Consumer receivables

 

1,825

 

AA+

 

317

 

A-

 

2,142

 

AA

 

Commercial receivables

 

693

 

BBB+

 

17

 

BBB

 

709

 

BBB+

 

Commercial mortgage-backed securities

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Insurance securitization

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Other structured finance

 

 

 

34

 

AA-

 

34

 

AA-

 

Total U.S. structured finance

 

$

12,085

 

AA+

 

$

656

 

A+

 

$

12,741

 

AA+

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

International

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Residential mortgage-backed and home equity

 

$

3,096

 

AAA

 

$

14

 

AAA

 

$

3,110

 

AAA

 

Regulated utilities

 

450

 

A+

 

829

 

A-

 

1,279

 

A

 

Pooled corporate obligations

 

977

 

AAA

 

38

 

AAA

 

1,015

 

AAA

 

Infrastructure and pooled infrastructure

 

 

 

495

 

A-

 

495

 

A-

 

Future flow

 

250

 

BBB+

 

 

 

250

 

BBB+

 

Consumer receivables

 

 

 

152

 

AAA

 

152

 

AAA

 

Public finance

 

 

 

71

 

A-

 

71

 

A-

 

Commercial receivables

 

 

 

6

 

AA

 

6

 

AA

 

Commercial mortgage-backed securities

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Insurance securitizations

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Structured credit

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Other international structured finance

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Total international

 

$

4,772

 

AA+

 

$

1,604

 

A

 

$

6,377

 

AA

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Total gross par written

 

$

47,567

 

AA-

 

$

8,573

 

A+

 

$

56,140

 

AA-

 

 


(1) Assured’s internal rating.  Assured’s scale is comparable to that of the nationally recognized rating agencies.  The super senior category, which is not generally used by rating agencies, is used by the Company in instances where Assured’s AAA-rated exposure has additional credit enhancement due to either (1) the existence of another security rated AAA that is subordinated to Assured’s exposure or (2) Assured’s exposure benefits from a different form of credit enhancement that would pay any claims first in the event that any of the exposures incurs a loss, and such credit enhancement, in management’s opinion, causes Assured’s attachment point to be materially above the AAA attachment point.

 

Please refer to Glossary for description of selected types of U.S. public finance, U.S. structured finance and International obligations that the Company insures and reinsures.

 

20



Table of Contents

 

Assured Guaranty Ltd.

Financial Guaranty Profile (5 of 6)

(dollars in millions)

 

Distribution by Ratings of Financial Guaranty Portfolio

 

 

 

As of December 31, 2008

 

 

 

Financial Guaranty
Direct

 

Financial Guaranty
Reinsurance

 

Consolidated

 

 

 

Net Par Outstanding

 

%

 

Net Par Outstanding

 

%

 

Net Par Outstanding

 

%

 

Ratings (1):

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Super senior

 

$

32,351

 

24.5

%

$

1

 

0.0

%

$

32,352

 

14.5

%

AAA

 

35,542

 

26.9

%

5,191

 

5.7

%

40,733

 

18.3

%

AA

 

14,699

 

11.1

%

32,986

 

36.4

%

47,685

 

21.4

%

A

 

31,912

 

24.2

%

34,078

 

37.6

%

65,991

 

29.6

%

BBB

 

12,579

 

9.5

%

16,782

 

18.5

%

29,361

 

13.2

%

Below investment grade

 

4,943

 

3.7

%

1,657

 

1.8

%

6,600

 

3.0

%

Total exposures

 

$

132,026

 

100.0

%

$

90,696

 

100.0

%

$

222,722

 

100.0

%

 

 

 

As of December 31, 2007

 

 

 

Financial Guaranty
Direct

 

Financial Guaranty
Reinsurance

 

Consolidated

 

 

 

Net Par
Outstanding

 

%

 

Net Par
Outstanding

 

%

 

Net Par
Outstanding

 

%

 

Ratings (1):

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Super senior

 

$

36,359

 

35.3

%

$

 

 

$

36,359

 

18.2

%

AAA

 

41,716

 

40.5

%

5,617

 

5.8

%

47,333

 

23.6

%

AA

 

5,576

 

5.4

%

32,858

 

33.8

%

38,434

 

19.2

%

A

 

9,873

 

9.6

%

39,304

 

40.4

%

49,177

 

24.6

%

BBB

 

7,970

 

7.7

%

18,892

 

19.4

%

26,862

 

13.4

%

Below investment grade

 

1,526

 

1.5

%

588

 

0.6

%

2,114

 

1.1

%

Total exposures

 

$

103,021

 

100.0

%

$

97,258

 

100.0

%

$

200,279

 

100.0

%

 

 

 

As of December 31, 2008

 

 

 

U.S. Public
Finance

 

U.S. Structured
Finance

 

International

 

Consolidated

 

 

 

Net Par Outstanding

 

%

 

Net Par Outstanding

 

%

 

Net Par Outstanding

 

%

 

Net Par Outstanding

 

%

 

Ratings (1):

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Super senior

 

$

 

 

$

21,302

 

28.6

%

$

11,050

 

26.9

%

$

32,352

 

14.5

%

AAA

 

2,120

 

2.0

%

27,115

 

36.5

%

11,498

 

28.0

%

40,733

 

18.3

%

AA

 

38,028

 

35.4

%

7,687

 

10.3

%

1,970

 

4.8

%

47,685

 

21.4

%

A

 

53,086

 

49.5

%

7,058

 

9.5

%

5,846

 

14.2

%

65,991

 

29.6

%

BBB

 

13,020

 

12.1

%

6,692

 

9.0

%

9,649

 

23.5

%

29,361

 

13.2

%

Below investment grade

 

1,067

 

1.0

%

4,519

 

6.1

%

1,014

 

2.5

%

6,600

 

3.0

%

Total exposures

 

$

107,322

 

100.0

%

$

74,373

 

100.0

%

$

41,027

 

100.0

%

$

222,722

 

100.0

%

 

 

 

As of December 31, 2007

 

 

 

U.S. Public
Finance

 

U.S. Structured
Finance

 

International

 

Consolidated

 

 

 

Net Par
Outstanding

 

%

 

Net Par
Outstanding

 

%

 

Net Par
Outstanding

 

%

 

Net Par
Outstanding

 

%

 

Ratings (1):

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Super senior

 

$

 

 

$

22,098

 

29.9

%

$

14,261

 

32.0

%

$

36,359

 

18.2

%

AAA

 

1,777

 

2.2

%

34,370

 

46.6

%

11,185

 

25.1

%

47,333

 

23.6

%

AA

 

31,750

 

38.8

%

4,676

 

6.3

%

2,008

 

4.5

%

38,434

 

19.2

%

A

 

37,604

 

45.9

%

5,302

 

7.2

%

6,271

 

14.1

%

49,177

 

24.6

%

BBB

 

10,608

 

13.0

%

5,479

 

7.4

%

10,776

 

24.2

%

26,862

 

13.4

%

Below investment grade

 

174

 

0.2

%

1,894

 

2.6

%

45

 

0.1

%

2,114

 

1.1

%

Total exposures

 

$

81,914

 

100.0

%

$

73,820

 

100.0

%

$

44,546

 

100.0

%

$

200,279

 

100.0

%

 


(1) Assured’s internal rating. Assured’s scale is comparable to that of the nationally recognized rating agencies. The super senior category, which is not generally used by rating agencies, is used by the Company in instances where Assured’s AAA-rated exposure has additional credit enhancement due to either (1) the existence of another security rated AAA that is subordinated to Assured’s exposure or (2) Assured’s exposure benefits from a different form of credit enhancement that would pay any claims first in the event that any of the exposures incurs a loss and such credit enhancement, in management’s opinion, causes Assured’s attachment point to be materially above the AAA attachment point.

 

21



Table of Contents

 

Assured Guaranty Ltd.

Financial Guaranty Profile (6 of 6)

(dollars in millions)

 

Geographic Distribution of Financial Guaranty Portfolio as of December 31, 2008

 

 

 

Net Par

 

 

 

 

 

Outstanding

 

% of total

 

U.S.:

 

 

 

 

 

California

 

$

16,230

 

7.3

%

New York

 

9,535

 

4.3

%

Florida

 

8,381

 

3.8

%

Texas

 

7,318

 

3.3

%

Illinois

 

5,922

 

2.7

%

Pennsylvania

 

4,581

 

2.1

%

Massachusetts

 

4,385

 

2.0

%

New Jersey

 

4,208

 

1.9

%

Michigan

 

3,111

 

1.4

%

Washington

 

2,882

 

1.3

%

Other states

 

40,768

 

18.3

%

Structured finance (multiple states)

 

74,373

 

33.4

%

Total U.S.

 

$

181,694

 

81.6

%

 

 

 

 

 

 

International:

 

 

 

 

 

United Kingdom

 

$

23,735

 

10.7

%

Germany

 

3,325

 

1.5

%

Australia

 

2,605

 

1.2

%

Ireland

 

925

 

0.4

%

Turkey

 

794

 

0.4

%

Other

 

9,644

 

4.3

%

Total International

 

$

41,027

 

18.4

%

 

 

 

 

 

 

Total exposures

 

$

222,722

 

100.0

%

 

22



Table of Contents

 

Assured Guaranty Ltd.

Pooled Corporate Obligations Profile

(dollars in millions)

 

Distribution of Financial Guaranty Direct Pooled Corporate Obligations by Ratings as of December 31, 2008

 

 

 

Net Par
Outstanding

 

% of total

 

Avg. Initial
Credit
Enhancement (2)

 

Avg. Current Enhancement (2)

 

Ratings (1):

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

AAA

 

$

35,579

 

87.3

%

37.3

%

33.6

%

AA

 

4,251

 

10.4

%

36.7

%

29.8

%

A

 

672

 

1.6

%

44.0

%

40.5

%

BBB

 

248

 

0.6

%

48.2

%

35.3

%

Below investment grade

 

 

 

 

 

Total exposures

 

$

40,750

 

100.0

%

37.4

%

33.3

%

 

Distribution of Financial Guaranty Direct Pooled Corporate Obligations by Year Insured as of December 31, 2008

 

 

 

Net Par
Outstanding

 

% of total

 

Avg. Initial
Credit
Enhancement (2)

 

Avg. Current
Enhancement (2)

 

Year insured:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2004 and prior

 

$

1,582

 

3.9

%

30.8

%

30.6

%

2005

 

7,504

 

18.4

%

35.7

%

33.1

%

2006

 

13,274

 

32.6

%

38.0

%

32.1

%

2007

 

15,848

 

38.9

%

38.9

%

34.3

%

2008

 

2,542

 

6.2

%

34.7

%

35.6

%

 

 

$

40,750

 

100.0

%

37.4

%

33.3

%

 

Distribution of Financial Guaranty Direct Pooled Corporate Obligations by Asset Class as of December 31, 2008

 

 

 

Net Par
Outstanding

 

% of total

 

Avg. Initial
Credit
Enhancement (2)

 

Avg. Current
Enhancement (2)

 

Avg.
Rating(1)

 

Asset class:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

High yield corporates

 

$

26,186

 

64.3

%

35.2

%

31.5

%

AAA

 

Trust preferred - banks and insurance

 

3,759

 

9.2

%

47.1

%

43.8

%

AAA

 

Trust preferred - US mortgage and REITs

 

2,493

 

6.1

%

50.0

%

45.2

%

AA

 

Trust preferred - European mortgage and REITs

 

1,005

 

2.5

%

36.8

%

36.5

%

AAA

 

Market value CDOs of corporates

 

4,181

 

10.3

%

38.6

%

27.2

%

AAA

 

Investment grade corporates

 

2,277

 

5.6

%

28.6

%

29.9

%

AAA

 

Commercial real estate

 

775

 

1.9

%

49.1

%

49.1

%

AAA

 

CDO of CDOs (corporate) (3)

 

74

 

0.2

%

1.7

%

4.9

%

AAA

 

 

 

$

40,750

 

100.0

%

37.4

%

33.3

%

AAA

 

 


(1) Assured’s internal rating.  Assured’s scale is comparable to that of the nationally recognized rating agencies.  The super senior category, which is not generally used by rating agencies, is used by the Company in instances where Assured’s AAA-rated exposure has additional credit enhancement due to either (1) the existence of another security rated AAA that is subordinated to Assured’s exposure or (2) Assured’s exposure benefits from a different form of credit enhancement that would pay any claims first in the event that any of the exposures incurs a loss and such credit enhancement, in management’s opinion, causes Assured’s attachment point to be materially above the AAA attachment point.

 

(2) “Average Credit Enhancement” is intended to provide a measure of the amount of equity and/or subordinate tranches that are junior in the capital structure to Assured’s exposure, expressed as a percentage of the total transaction size and reflects any reduction of that credit support resulting from defaults or other factors. For transactions where excess spread may be available to absorb certain losses, the amounts shown above do not include any benefit from excess spread. The calculation methodologies differ for the various asset classes to reflect differences in transaction structures in order to provide a measure that management believes is comparable across asset classes. Data is obtained from third-party sources such as trustee reports and may be subject to misstatement or correction.

 

(3) Consists of one transaction whereby Assured’s exposure is principal-protected by a collateral account currently containing $78 million in assets and representing 105% of current net par.  Funds in the collateral account are permitted to be invested in cash, government securities and AAA ABS (other than MBS).

 

23



Table of Contents

 

Assured Guaranty Ltd.

Consolidated U.S. Residential Mortgage-Backed Securities (“RMBS”) Profile (1 of 2)

(dollars in millions)

 

Distribution of U.S. RMBS by Rating(1) and by Segment as of December 31, 2008

 

 

 

Direct
Net Par
Outstanding

 

%

 

Reinsurance
Net Par
Outstanding

 

%

 

Total
Net Par
Outstanding

 

%

 

Ratings(1):

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Super senior

 

$

6,384

 

36.9

%

$

 

 

$

6,384

 

34.7

%

AAA

 

1,471

 

8.5

%

201

 

18.7

%

1,672

 

9.1

%

AA

 

1,461

 

8.4

%

101

 

9.4

%

1,561

 

8.5

%

A

 

2,360

 

13.6

%

98

 

9.1

%

2,458

 

13.4

%

BBB

 

1,724

 

10.0

%

185

 

17.2

%

1,909

 

10.4

%

Below investment grade

 

3,918

 

22.6

%

489

 

45.6

%

4,408

 

24.0

%

 

 

$

17,319

 

100.0

%

$

1,074

 

100.0

%

$

18,393

 

100.0

%

 

Distribution of U.S. RMBS by Rating(1) and Type of Exposure as of December 31, 2008

 

 

 

Prime First
Lien

 

Prime
Closed End
Seconds

 

Prime
HELOC

 

Alt-A First
Lien

 

Alt-A
Option
ARMs

 

Subprime
First Lien

 

Total Net Par
Outstanding

 

Ratings(1):

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Super senior

 

$

672

 

$

47

 

$

 

$

2,746

 

$

 

$

2,920

 

$

6,384

 

AAA

 

335

 

60

 

13

 

738

 

195

 

331

 

1,672

 

AA

 

171

 

135

 

13

 

514

 

82

 

645

 

1,561

 

A

 

74

 

 

8

 

886

 

333

 

1,157

 

2,458

 

BBB

 

681

 

5

 

102

 

24

 

 

1,097

 

1,909

 

Below investment grade

 

26

 

185

 

1,602

 

1,310

 

801

 

483

 

4,408

 

Total exposures

 

$

1,959

 

$

433

 

$

1,738

 

$

6,218

 

$

1,411

 

$

6,633

 

$

18,393

 

 

Distribution of U.S. RMBS by Year Insured and Type of Exposure as of December 31, 2008

 

 

 

Prime First
Lien

 

Prime
Closed End Seconds

 

Prime
HELOC

 

Alt-A First
Lien

 

Alt-A
Option
ARMs

 

Subprime
First Lien

 

Total Net Par
Outstanding

 

Year Insured:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2004 and prior

 

$

224

 

$

 

$

140

 

$

57

 

$

71

 

$

493

 

$

984

 

2005

 

214

 

 

739

 

383

 

43

 

97

 

1,476

 

2006

 

431

 

5

 

146

 

 

57

 

4,477

 

5,117

 

2007

 

1,090

 

428

 

713

 

3,249

 

1,090

 

1,536

 

8,106

 

2008

 

 

 

 

2,529

 

151

 

30

 

2,710

 

Total exposures

 

$

1,959

 

$

433

 

$

1,738

 

$

6,218

 

$

1,411

 

$

6,633

 

$

18,393

 

 


(1) Assured’s internal rating.  Assured’s scale is comparable to that of the nationally recognized rating agencies.  The super senior category, which is not generally used by rating agencies, is used by the Company in instances where Assured’s AAA-rated exposure has additional credit enhancement due to either (1) the existence of another security rated AAA that is subordinated to Assured’s exposure or (2) Assured’s exposure benefits from a different form of credit enhancement that would pay any claims first in the event that any of the exposures incurs a loss and such credit enhancement, in management’s opinion, causes Assured’s attachment point to be materially above the AAA attachment point.

 

24



Table of Contents

 

Assured Guaranty Ltd.

Consolidated U.S. RMBS Profile (2 of 2)

(dollars in millions)

 

Distribution of U.S. RMBS by Rating(1) and Year Insured as of December 31, 2008

 

 

 

Super

 

AAA

 

AA

 

A

 

BBB

 

BIG

 

 

 

 

 

Senior

 

Rated

 

Rated

 

Rated

 

Rated

 

Rated

 

Total

 

Year insured:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2004 and prior

 

$

 

$

253

 

$

159

 

$

136

 

$

166

 

$

270

 

$

984

 

2005

 

 

346

 

125

 

136

 

31

 

838

 

1,476

 

2006

 

2,920

 

184

 

541

 

400

 

845

 

227

 

5,117

 

2007

 

1,314

 

344

 

736

 

1,785

 

869

 

3,058

 

8,106

 

2008

 

2,150

 

545

 

 

 

 

15

 

2,710

 

 

 

$

6,384

 

$

1,672

 

$

1,561

 

$

2,458

 

$

1,909

 

$

4,408

 

$

18,393

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

% of total

 

34.7

%

9.1

%

8.5

%

13.4

%

10.4

%

24.0

%

100.0

%

 

Distribution of U.S. Prime HELOC RMBS by Rating(1) and Year Insured as of December 31, 2008

 

 

 

Super

 

AAA

 

AA

 

A

 

BBB

 

BIG

 

 

 

 

 

Senior

 

Rated

 

Rated

 

Rated

 

Rated

 

Rated

 

Total

 

Year insured:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2004 and prior

 

$

 

$

2

 

$

12

 

$

5

 

$

79

 

$

42

 

$

140

 

2005

 

 

 

 

2

 

21

 

715

 

739

 

2006

 

 

 

 

 

1

 

146

 

146

 

2007

 

 

11

 

2

 

 

1

 

700

 

713

 

2008

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

$

 

$

13

 

$

13

 

$

8

 

$

102

 

$

1,602

 

$

1,738

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

% of total

 

0.0

%

0.8

%

0.8

%

0.4

%

5.9

%

92.2

%

100.0

%

 

Distribution of U.S. Closed End Seconds RMBS by Rating(1) and Year Insured as of December 31, 2008

 

 

 

Super

 

AAA

 

AA

 

A

 

BBB

 

BIG

 

 

 

 

 

Senior

 

Rated

 

Rated

 

Rated

 

Rated

 

Rated

 

Total

 

Year insured:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2004 and prior

 

$

 

$

 

$

 

$

 

$

 

$

 

$

 

2005

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2006

 

 

 

 

 

5

 

 

5

 

2007

 

47

 

60

 

135

 

 

 

185

 

428

 

2008

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

$

47

 

$

60

 

$

135

 

$

 

$

5

 

$

185

 

$

433

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

% of total

 

10.9

%

14.0

%

31.2

%

0.0

%

1.3

%

42.7

%

100.0

%

 

Distribution of U.S. Alt-A RMBS by Rating(1) and Year Insured as of December 31, 2008

 

 

 

Super

 

AAA

 

AA

 

A

 

BBB

 

BIG

 

 

 

 

 

Senior

 

Rated

 

Rated

 

Rated

 

Rated

 

Rated

 

Total

 

Year insured:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2004 and prior

 

$

 

$

19

 

$

16

 

$

 

$

21

 

$

 

$

57

 

2005

 

 

228

 

42

 

 

 

114

 

383

 

2006

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2007

 

595

 

113

 

456

 

886

 

2

 

1,197

 

3,249

 

2008

 

2,150

 

378

 

 

 

 

 

2,529

 

 

 

$

2,746

 

$

738

 

$

514

 

$

886

 

$

24

 

$

1,310

 

$

6,218

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

% of total

 

44.2

%

11.9

%

8.3

%

14.3

%

0.4

%

21.1

%

100.0

%

 

Distribution of U.S. Alt-A Option ARM RMBS by Rating(1) and Year Insured as of December 31, 2008

 

 

 

Super

 

AAA

 

AA

 

A

 

BBB

 

BIG

 

 

 

 

 

Senior

 

Rated

 

Rated

 

Rated

 

Rated

 

Rated

 

Total

 

Year insured:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2004 and prior

 

$

 

$

39

 

$

14

 

$

17

 

$

 

$

 

$

71

 

2005

 

 

 

 

43

 

 

 

43

 

2006

 

 

 

 

 

 

57

 

57

 

2007

 

 

5

 

68

 

272

 

 

744

 

1,090

 

2008

 

 

151

 

 

 

 

 

151

 

 

 

$

 

$

195

 

$

82

 

$

333

 

$

 

$

801

 

$

1,411

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

% of total

 

0.0

%

13.8

%

5.8

%

23.6

%

0.0

%

56.8

%

100.0

%

 

Distribution of U.S. Subprime RMBS by Rating(1) and Year Insured as of December 31, 2008

 

 

 

Super

 

AAA

 

AA

 

A

 

BBB

 

BIG

 

 

 

 

 

Senior

 

Rated

 

Rated

 

Rated

 

Rated

 

Rated

 

Total

 

Year insured:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2004 and prior

 

$

 

$

173

 

$

38

 

$

41

 

$

13

 

$

228

 

$

493

 

2005

 

 

5

 

 

90

 

2

 

0

 

97

 

2006

 

2,920

 

125

 

532

 

400

 

488

 

13

 

4,477

 

2007

 

 

12

 

75

 

627

 

594

 

227

 

1,536

 

2008

 

 

16

 

 

 

 

15

 

30

 

 

 

$

2,920

 

$

331

 

$

645

 

$

1,157

 

$

1,097

 

$

483

 

$

6,633

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

% of total

 

44.0

%

5.0

%

9.7

%

17.4

%

16.5

%

7.3

%

100.0

%

 


(1) Assured’s internal rating.  Assured’s scale is comparable to that of the nationally recognized rating agencies.  The super senior category, which is not generally used by rating agencies, is used by the Company in instances where Assured’s AAA-rated exposure has additional credit enhancement due to either (1) the existence of another security rated AAA that is subordinated to Assured’s exposure or (2) Assured’s exposure benefits from a different form of credit enhancement that would pay any claims first in the event that any of the exposures incurs a loss and such credit enhancement, in management’s opinion, causes Assured’s attachment point to be materially above the AAA attachment point.

 

25



Table of Contents

 

Assured Guaranty Ltd.

Financial Guaranty Direct U.S. RMBS Profile (1 of 3)

(dollars in millions)

 

Distribution of Financial Guaranty Direct U.S. RMBS by Rating(1) and Type of Exposure as of December 31, 2008

 

 

 

Prime First
Lien

 

Prime Closed
End Seconds

 

Prime HELOC

 

Alt-A First
Lien

 

Alt-A Option
ARMs

 

Subprime
First Lien

 

Total Net Par 
Outstanding

 

Ratings(1):

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Super senior

 

$

672

 

$

47

 

$

 

$

2,746

 

$

 

$

2,920

 

$

6,384

 

AAA

 

252

 

58

 

 

736

 

195

 

232

 

1,471

 

AA

 

83

 

134

 

6

 

512

 

82

 

644

 

1,461

 

A

 

 

 

 

886

 

332

 

1,142

 

2,360

 

BBB

 

613

 

 

17

 

20

 

 

1,074

 

1,724

 

Below investment grade

 

 

185

 

1,220

 

1,294

 

801

 

418

 

3,918

 

Total exposures

 

$

1,620

 

$

424

 

$

1,242

 

$

6,193

 

$

1,410

 

$

6,430

 

$

17,319

 

 

Distribution of Financial Guaranty Direct U.S. RMBS Net Par Outstanding by Rating(1) and Year Issued as of December 31, 2008

 

 

 

Super

 

AAA

 

AA

 

A

 

BBB

 

BIG

 

 

 

 

 

Senior

 

Rated

 

Rated

 

Rated

 

Rated

 

Rated

 

Total

 

Year issued:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2004 and prior

 

$

 

$

163

 

$

71

 

$

50

 

$

37

 

$

193

 

$

514

 

2005

 

2,020

 

461

 

656

 

530

 

480

 

719

 

4,866

 

2006

 

1,189

 

 

75

 

150

 

892

 

371

 

2,678

 

2007

 

3,175

 

847

 

658

 

1,630

 

315

 

2,635

 

9,260

 

2008

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

$

6,384

 

$

1,471

 

$

1,461

 

$

2,360

 

$

1,724

 

$

3,918

 

$

17,319

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

% of total

 

36.9

%

8.5

%

8.4

%

13.6

%

10.0

%

22.6

%

100.0

%

 

Distribution of Financial Guaranty Direct U.S. RMBS Net Par Outstanding by Rating(1) and Year Insured as of December 31, 2008

 

 

 

Super

 

AAA

 

AA

 

A

 

BBB

 

BIG

 

 

 

 

 

Senior

 

Rated

 

Rated

 

Rated

 

Rated

 

Rated

 

Total

 

Year issued:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2004 and prior

 

$

 

$

163

 

$

71

 

$

50

 

$

37

 

$

193

 

$

514

 

2005

 

 

337

 

124

 

130

 

 

719

 

1,311

 

2006

 

2,920

 

124

 

532

 

400

 

822

 

57

 

4,855

 

2007

 

1,314

 

318

 

733

 

1,780

 

865

 

2,949

 

7,960

 

2008

 

2,150

 

529

 

 

 

 

 

2,679

 

 

 

$

6,384

 

$

1,471

 

$

1,461

 

$

2,360

 

$

1,724

 

$

3,918

 

$

17,319

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

% of total

 

36.9

%

8.5

%

8.4

%

13.6

%

10.0

%

22.6

%

100.0

%

 


(1) Assured’s internal rating.  Assured’s scale is comparable to that of the nationally recognized rating agencies.  The super senior category, which is not generally used by rating agencies, is used by the Company in instances where Assured’s AAA-rated exposure has additional credit enhancement due to either (1) the existence of another security rated AAA that is subordinated to Assured’s exposure or (2) Assured’s exposure benefits from a different form of credit enhancement that would pay any claims first in the event that any of the exposures incurs a loss, and such credit enhancement, in management’s opinion, causes Assured’s attachment point to be materially above the AAA attachment point.

 

26



Table of Contents

 

Assured Guaranty Ltd.

Financial Guaranty Direct U.S. RMBS Profile (2 of 3)

(dollars in millions)

 

Distribution of Financial Guaranty Direct U.S. RMBS by Year Insured as of December 31, 2008

 

 

 

Prime First
Lien

 

Prime Closed
End Seconds

 

Prime HELOC

 

Alt-A First Lien

 

Alt-A Option
ARMs

 

Subprime First
Lien

 

Total Net Par
Outstanding

 

Year insured:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2004 and prior

 

$

 

$

 

$

22

 

$

51

 

$

71

 

$

370

 

$

514

 

2005

 

192

 

 

605

 

383

 

42

 

88

 

1,311

 

2006

 

342

 

 

 

 

57

 

4,455

 

4,855

 

2007

 

1,085

 

424

 

614

 

3,230

 

1,090

 

1,516

 

7,960

 

2008

 

 

 

 

2,529

 

151

 

 

2,679

 

 

 

$

1,620

 

$

424

 

$

1,242

 

$

6,193

 

$

1,410

 

$

6,430

 

$

17,319

 

 

Distribution of Financial Guaranty Direct U.S. RMBS by Year Issued as of December 31, 2008

 

 

 

Prime First
Lien

 

Prime Closed
End Seconds

 

Prime HELOC

 

Alt-A First Lien

 

Alt-A Option ARMs

 

Subprime First
 Lien

 

Total Net Par Outstanding

 

Year issued:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2004 and prior

 

$

 

$

 

$

22

 

$

51

 

$

71

 

$

370

 

$

514

 

2005

 

192

 

 

605

 

383

 

42

 

3,643

 

4,866

 

2006

 

342

 

 

 

379

 

57

 

1,900

 

2,678

 

2007

 

1,085

 

424

 

614

 

5,380

 

1,240

 

516

 

9,260

 

2008

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

$

1,620

 

$

424

 

$

1,242

 

$

6,193

 

$

1,410

 

$

6,430

 

$

17,319

 

 

27



Table of Contents

 

Assured Guaranty Ltd.

Financial Guaranty Direct U.S. RMBS Profile (3 of 3)

(dollars in millions)

 

Distribution of Financial Guaranty Direct U.S. Mortgage-Backed Securities Issued January 1, 2005 or Later by Exposure Type, Average Pool Factor, Subordination, Cumulative Losses and 60+ Day Delinquencies as of December 31, 2008 (1)

 

U.S. Prime First Lien

 

 

 

Net Par
Outstanding

 

Pool Factor (2)

 

Subordination (3)

 

Cumulative
Losses (4)

 

60+ Day
Delinquencies (5)

 

Number of
transactions

 

Year issued:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2005

 

$

192

 

75.8

%

5.4

%

0.1

%

2.7

%

6

 

2006

 

342

 

69.1

%

5.3

%

0.0

%

0.6

%

2

 

2007

 

1,085

 

87.6

%

10.5

%

0.2

%

4.5

%

3

 

2008

 

 

N/A

 

N/A

 

N/A

 

N/A

 

N/A

 

 

 

$

1,620

 

82.3

%

8.8

%

0.1

%

3.5

%

11

 

 

U.S. Prime CES

 

 

 

Net Par Outstanding

 

Pool Factor (2)

 

Subordination (3)

 

Cumulative Losses (4)

 

60+ Day Delinquencies (5)

 

Number of transactions

 

Year issued:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2005

 

$

 

N/A

 

N/A

 

N/A

 

N/A

 

N/A

 

2006

 

 

N/A

 

N/A

 

N/A

 

N/A

 

N/A

 

2007

 

424

 

67.5

%

25.7

%

24.5

%

17.2

%

5

 

2008

 

 

N/A

 

N/A

 

N/A

 

N/A

 

N/A

 

 

 

$

424

 

67.5

%

25.7

%

24.5

%

17.2

%

5

 

 

U.S. Prime HELOC

 

 

 

Net Par Outstanding

 

Pool Factor (2)

 

Subordination (3)

 

Cumulative Losses (4)

 

60+ Day Delinquencies (5)

 

Number of transactions

 

Year issued:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2005

 

$

605

 

33.5

%

0.0

%

10.5

%

12.6

%

2

 

2006

 

 

N/A

 

N/A

 

N/A

 

N/A

 

N/A

 

2007

 

614

 

68.8

%

0.0

%

14.0

%

9.8

%

2

 

2008

 

 

N/A

 

N/A

 

N/A

 

N/A

 

N/A

 

 

 

$

1,220

 

51.3

%

0.0

%

12.3

%

11.2

%

4

 

 

U.S. Alt-A First Lien

 

 

 

Net Par Outstanding

 

Pool Factor (2)

 

Subordination (3)

 

Cumulative Losses (4)

 

60+ Day Delinquencies (5)

 

Number of transactions

 

Year issued:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2005

 

$

383

 

61.9

%

11.6

%

0.7

%

7.4

%

13

 

2006

 

379

 

76.6

%

39.5

%

1.8

%

24.3

%

2

 

2007

 

5,380

 

79.4

%

20.7

%

0.8

%

17.3

%

11

 

2008

 

 

N/A

 

N/A

 

N/A

 

N/A

 

N/A

 

 

 

$

6,142

 

78.1

%

21.3

%

0.9

%

17.1

%

26

 

 

U.S. Alt-A Option ARMs

 

 

 

Net Par Outstanding

 

Pool Factor (2)

 

Subordination (3)

 

Cumulative Losses (4)

 

60+ Day Delinquencies (5)

 

Number of transactions

 

Year issued:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2005

 

$

42

 

34.1

%

27.9

%

0.5

%

18.3

%

1

 

2006

 

57

 

57.0

%

19.3

%

0.7

%

23.0

%

1

 

2007

 

1,240

 

79.1

%

21.8

%

0.6

%

18.1

%

6

 

2008

 

 

N/A

 

N/A

 

N/A

 

N/A

 

N/A

 

 

 

$

1,339

 

76.7

%

21.9

%

0.6

%

18.3

%

8

 

 

U.S. Subprime First Lien

 

 

 

Net Par Outstanding

 

Pool Factor (2)

 

Subordination (3)

 

Cumulative Losses (4)

 

60+ Day Delinquencies (5)

 

Number of transactions

 

Year issued:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2005

 

$

3,643

 

34.1

%

62.6

%

5.7

%

42.4

%

42

 

2006

 

1,900

 

50.5

%

41.8

%

7.4

%

43.2

%

49

 

2007

 

516

 

51.9

%

42.1

%

7.5

%

45.1

%

2

 

2008

 

 

N/A

 

N/A

 

N/A

 

N/A

 

N/A

 

 

 

$

6,059

 

40.8

%

54.3

%

6.4

%

42.9

%

93

 

 

U.S. CMBS

 

 

 

Net Par Outstanding

 

Pool Factor (2)

 

Subordination (3)

 

Cumulative Losses (4)

 

60+ Day Delinquencies (5)

 

Number of transactions

 

Year issued:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2005

 

$

3,429

 

96.8

%

28.9

%

0.0

%

0.1

%

158

 

2006

 

1,418

 

98.5

%

30.1

%

0.0

%

0.2

%

57

 

2007

 

533

 

90.6

%

20.0

%

0.0

%

0.0

%

13

 

2008

 

 

N/A

 

N/A

 

N/A

 

N/A

 

N/A

 

 

 

$

5,380

 

96.6

%

28.3

%

0.0

%

0.1

%

228

 

 


(1) For this release, net par outstanding is based on values as of December 2008. With the exception of the US Prime First Lien, US Prime HELOC, US Prime CES and US CMBS portfolios which are as of December 2008, the pool factor, subordination, cumulative losses and delinquency data is based on November 2008 information obtained from Intex, Bloomberg, and/or provided by the trustee and may be subject to restatement or correction.

(2) Pool factor is the percentage of net par outstanding divided by the original net par outstanding of the transactions at inception.

(3) Represents the sum of subordinate tranches and over-collateralization, expressed as a percentage of total transaction size and does not include any benefit from excess interest collections that may be used to absorb losses.

(4) Cumulative losses are defined as net charge-offs on the underlying loan collateral divided by the original pool balance.

(5) 60+ day delinquencies are defined as loans that are greater than 60 days delinquent and all loans that are in foreclosure, bankruptcy or REO divided by net par outstanding.

 

28



Table of Contents

 

Assured Guaranty Ltd.

Consumer Receivables Profile

(dollars in millions)

 

Distribution of Consolidated Consumer Receivables by Year Issued as of December 31, 2008

 

 

 

Credit Cards

 

Student Loans

 

Auto

 

Total Net Par
Outstanding

 

 

Year issued:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2004 and prior

 

$

48

 

$

34

 

$

10

 

$

92

 

 

2005

 

1,074

 

202

 

136

 

1,412

 

 

2006

 

 

822

 

296

 

1,118

 

 

2007

 

0

 

1,219

 

1,071

 

2,291

 

 

2008

 

175

 

 

181

 

356

 

 

 

 

$

1,297

 

$

2,277

 

$

1,693

 

$

5,268

 

 

 

Distribution of Financial Guaranty Direct U.S. Consumer Receivables Net Par Outstanding by Rating(1) and Year Insured as of December 31, 2008

 

 

 

Super

 

AAA

 

AA

 

A

 

BBB

 

BIG

 

 

 

 

 

Senior

 

Rated

 

Rated

 

Rated

 

Rated

 

Rated

 

Total

 

Year insured:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2004 and prior

 

$

 

$

 

$

 

$

 

$

 

$

 

$

 

2005

 

 

 

 

 

11

 

 

11

 

2006

 

 

419

 

 

 

 

 

419

 

2007

 

 

842

 

150

 

 

 

 

992

 

2008

 

1,175

 

 

 

283

 

 

 

1,458

 

 

 

$

1,175

 

$

1,261

 

$

150

 

$

283

 

$

11

 

$

 

$

2,880

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

% of total

 

40.8

%

43.8

%

5.2

%

9.8

%

0.4

%

0.0

%

100.0

%

 

Distribution of Financial Guaranty Direct U.S. Consumer Receivables Net Par Outstanding by Rating(1) and Year Issued as of December 31, 2008

 

 

 

Super

 

AAA

 

AA

 

A

 

BBB

 

BIG

 

 

 

 

 

Senior

 

Rated

 

Rated

 

Rated

 

Rated

 

Rated

 

Total

 

Year issued:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2004 and prior

 

$

 

$

 

$

 

$

 

$

 

$

 

$

 

2005

 

1,000

 

 

 

 

11

 

 

1,011

 

2006

 

 

419

 

 

 

 

 

419

 

2007

 

 

842

 

150

 

283

 

 

 

1,275

 

2008

 

175

 

 

 

 

 

 

175

 

 

 

$

1,175

 

$

1,261

 

$

150

 

$

283

 

$

11

 

$

 

$

2,880

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

% of total

 

40.8

%

43.8

%

5.2

%

9.8

%

0.4

%

0.0

%

100.0

%

 

Distribution of Consumer Receivables by Asset Class as of December 31, 2008

 

 

 

Net Par Outstanding

 

%

 

Average Rating (1)

 

Avg. Initial
Credit Enhancement (2)

 

Avg. Current Enhancement (2)

 

Asset class:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Credit cards

 

$

1,261

 

43.8

%

AAA

 

7.2

%

8.2

%

Student loans

 

1,175

 

40.8

%

AAA

 

54.0

%

54.0

%

Auto

 

444

 

15.4

%

A-

 

11.2

%

14.5

%

 

 

$

2,880

 

100.0

%

AA+

 

26.9

%

27.9

%

 


(1) Assured’s internal rating. Assured’s scale is comparable to that of the nationally recognized rating agencies. The super senior category, which is not generally used by rating agencies, is used by the Company in instances where Assured’s AAA-rated exposure has additional credit enhancement due to either (1) the existence of another security rated AAA that is subordinated to Assured’s exposure or (2) Assured’s exposure benefits from a different form of credit enhancement that would pay any claims first in the event that any of the exposures incurs a loss and such credit enhancement, in management’s opinion, causes Assured’s attachment point to be materially above the AAA attachment point.

 

(2) “Average Credit Enhancement” is intended to provide a measure of the amount of equity and/or subordinate tranches that are junior in the capital structure to Assured’s exposure, expressed as a percentage of the total transactionsize and reflects any reduction of that credit support resulting from defaults or other factors. For transactions where excess spread may be available to absorb certain losses, the amounts shown above do not include any benefit from excess spread. The calculation methodologies differ for the various asset classes to reflect differences in transaction structures in order to provide a measure that management believes is comparable across asset classes. Data is obtained from third-party sources such as trustee reports and may be subject to misstatement or correction.

 

29



Table of Contents

 

Assured Guaranty Ltd.

Financial Guaranty Direct Credit Derivative Exposure Profile

(dollars in millions)

 

Distribution of Financial Guaranty Direct Credit Derivative Exposure by Rating

 

 

 

December 31, 2008

 

December 31, 2007

 

 

 

Net Par

 

 

 

Net Par

 

 

 

 

 

Outstanding

 

%

 

Outstanding

 

%

 

Ratings (1):

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Super senior

 

$

31,129

 

43.3

%

$

34,328

 

49.1

%

AAA

 

29,574

 

41.1

%

33,318

 

47.6

%

AA

 

4,032

 

5.6

%

1,796

 

2.6

%

A

 

3,565

 

5.0

%

101

 

0.1

%

BBB

 

1,734

 

2.4

%

368

 

0.5

%

Below investment grade

 

1,931

 

2.7

%

26

 

 

Total exposures

 

$

71,964

 

100.0

%

$

69,936

 

100.0

%

 

Distribution of Financial Guaranty Direct Credit Derivative Exposure by Sector and Average Rating

 

 

 

 

December 31, 2008

 

December 31, 2007

 

Sector:

 

Net Par
Outstanding

 

Average
Rating (1)

 

Net Par
Outstanding

 

Average
Rating (1)

 

U.S. public finance

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

General obligation

 

$

417

 

AAA

 

$

431

 

AAA

 

Healthcare

 

100

 

A

 

 

 

Tax backed

 

69

 

BBB+

 

70

 

AAA

 

Investor-owned utilities

 

39

 

AAA

 

39

 

AAA

 

Municipal utilities

 

25

 

AAA

 

26

 

AAA

 

Total U.S. public finance

 

$

650

 

AA

 

$

565

 

AAA

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

U.S. structured finance

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Pooled corporate obligations

 

$

29,349

 

AAA

 

$

28,229

 

AAA

 

Residential mortgage-backed and home equity

 

12,768

 

AA-

 

10,745

 

AAA

 

Commercial mortgage-backed securities

 

5,355

 

AAA

 

5,391

 

AAA

 

Commercial receivables

 

1,540

 

AA

 

1,584

 

AAA

 

Consumer receivables

 

545

 

AAA

 

695

 

AA+

 

Structured credit

 

351

 

A+

 

346

 

AAA

 

Insurance securitizations

 

100

 

AA

 

108

 

AAA

 

Other structured finance

 

49

 

AA-

 

643

 

AAA

 

Total U.S. structured finance

 

$

50,056

 

AA+

 

$

47,740

 

AAA

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

International

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Residential mortgage-backed and home equity

 

$

7,488

 

AAA

 

$

6,032

 

AAA

 

Pooled corporate obligations

 

6,905

 

AAA

 

6,984

 

AAA

 

Infrastructure and pooled Infrastructure

 

4,933

 

AA+

 

6,404

 

AAA

 

Regulated utilities

 

577

 

AA

 

462

 

AAA

 

Commercial mortgage-backed securities

 

446

 

AAA

 

832

 

AAA

 

Future flow

 

224

 

BBB+

 

173

 

A+

 

Insurance securitizations

 

41

 

B

 

41

 

BBB-

 

Public finance

 

8

 

AAA

 

9

 

AAA

 

Other international structured finance

 

636

 

AAA

 

695

 

AAA

 

Total international

 

$

21,258

 

AAA

 

$

21,631

 

AAA

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Total exposure

 

$

71,964

 

AA+

 

$

69,936

 

AAA

 

 


(1) Assured’s internal rating.  Assured’s scale is comparable to that of the nationally recognized rating agencies.  The super senior category, which is not generally used by rating agencies, is used by the Company in instances where Assured’s AAA-rated exposure has additional credit enhancement due to either (1) the existence of another security rated AAA that is subordinated to Assured’s exposure or (2) Assured’s exposure benefits from a different form of credit enhancement that would pay any claims first in the event that any of the exposures incurs a loss and such credit enhancement, in management’s opinion, causes Assured’s attachment point to be materially above the AAA attachment point.

 

Please refer to Glossary for description of selected types of U.S. public finance, U.S. structured finance and International obligations that the Company insures and reinsures.

 

30



Table of Contents

 

Assured Guaranty Ltd.

Unrealized Gains (Losses) on Credit Default Swaps (“CDS”)

 

Unrealized Gains (Losses) on Credit Default Swaps (“CDS”) as of December 31, 2008

 

 

 

Net Par
Outstanding
(in billions)

 

Wtd. Avg.
Credit Rating

 

4Q-08 Unrealized
Gain (Loss)

 

Full Year 2008
Unrealized Gain
(Loss)

 

Asset Type

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Corporate collateralized loan obligations

 

$

26.3

 

AAA

 

$

(29.9

)

$

271.2

 

Market value CDOs of corporates

 

3.8

 

AAA

 

(0.1

)

48.8

 

Trust preferred securities

 

6.2

 

AA+

 

(64.8

)

7.5

 

Total pooled corporate obligations

 

36.3

 

AAA

 

(94.8

)

327.4

 

Commercial mortgage-backed securities

 

5.8

 

AAA

 

(0.4

)

79.0

 

Residential mortgage-backed securities

 

20.3

 

AA

 

(46.9

)

(1.5

)

Other(4)

 

9.7

 

AA

 

(138.6

)

(339.2

)

Total

 

$

72.0

 

AA+

 

$

(280.7

)

$

65.7

 

Reinsurance exposures written in CDS form

 

3.2

 

AA+

 

(13.9

)

(27.7

)

Grand Total

 

$

75.1

 

AA+

 

$

(294.6

)

$

38.0

 

 

Unrealized Gains (Losses) on CDS Associated with Pooled Corporate Obligations as of December 31, 2008 (1):

 

 

 

Original
Subordination(5)

 

Current
Subordination

 

Net Par
Outstanding
(in billions)

 

Wtd. Avg. Credit
Rating

 

4Q-08 Unrealized
Gain (Loss)

 

Full Year 2008
Unrealized Gain
(Loss)

 

Asset Type

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

High yield corporates

 

36.2

%

32.3

%

$

23.1

 

AAA

 

$

(23.6

)

$

263.3

 

Trust preferred

 

46.3

%

42.6

%

6.2

 

AA+

 

(64.8

)

7.5

 

Market value CDOs of corporates

 

39.2

%

26.0

%

3.8

 

AAA

 

(0.1

)

48.8

 

Investment grade corporates

 

28.6

%

29.9

%

2.3

 

AAA

 

(2.5

)

3.8

 

Commercial real estate

 

49.1

%

49.1

%

0.8

 

AAA

 

 

7.5

 

CDO of CDOs (corporate)

 

1.7

%

4.9

%

0.1

 

AAA

 

(3.8

)

(3.4

)

Total

 

37.9

%

33.5

%

$

36.3

 

AAA

 

$

(94.8

)

$

327.4

 

 

Unrealized Gain on CDS Associated with Commercial Mortgage-Backed Securities by Year Issued as of December 31, 2008 (2):

 

 

 

Original
Subordination

 

Current
Subordination

 

Net Par
Outstanding
(in billions)

 

Wtd. Avg. Credit
Rating

 

4Q-08 Unrealized
Gain (Loss)

 

Full Year 2008
Unrealized Gain
(Loss)

 

Vintage

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2004 and Prior

 

19.7

%

21.4

%

$

0.3

 

AAA

 

$

(0.4

)

$

5.1

 

2005

 

27.8

%

28.9

%

3.4

 

AAA

 

(0.2

)

50.7

 

2006

 

27.6

%

27.9

%

1.9

 

AAA

 

0.1

 

20.7

 

2007

 

35.8

%

35.9

%

0.2

 

AAA

 

0.1

 

2.4

 

2008

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Total

 

27.6

%

28.5

%

$

5.8

 

AAA

 

$

(0.4

)

$

79.0

 

 

Unrealized Gain on CDS Associated with RMBS by Year Issued as of December 31, 2008 (3):

 

 

 

Original
Subordination

 

Current
Subordination

 

Net Par
Outstanding
(in billions)

 

Wtd. Avg. Credit
Rating

 

4Q-08 Unrealized
Gain (Loss)

 

Full Year 2008
Unrealized Gain
(Loss)

 

Vintage

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2004 and Prior

 

5.2

%

12.9

%

$

0.5

 

A+

 

$

(25.6

)

$

(37.0

)

2005

 

24.4

%

50.4

%

5.0

 

AA

 

4.2

 

75.5

 

2006

 

16.4

%

23.3

%

5.8

 

AA+

 

3.8

 

129.7

 

2007

 

16.4

%

18.5

%

9.0

 

AA-

 

(29.4

)

(169.7

)

2008

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Total

 

18.1

%

27.5

%

$

20.3

 

AA

 

$

(46.9

)

$

(1.5

)

 

Unrealized Gain on CDS Associated with RMBS by Asset Type as of December 31, 2008 (3):

 

 

 

Original
Subordination

 

Current
Subordination

 

Net Par
Outstanding
(in billions)

 

Wtd. Avg. Credit
Rating

 

4Q-08 Unrealized
Gain (Loss)

 

Full Year 2008
Unrealized Gain
(Loss)

 

Asset Type

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Alt-A loans

 

20.3

%

23.3

%

$

6.4

 

A+

 

$

(21.6

)

$

(194.9

)

Prime first lien

 

10.3

%

12.2

%

8.2

 

AAA

 

(18.1

)

7.7

 

Subprime lien

 

26.9

%

54.4

%

5.7

 

AA-

 

(7.3

)

185.7

 

Total

 

18.1

%

27.5

%

$

20.3

 

AA

 

$

(46.9

)

$

(1.5

)

 


(1) Corporate collateralized loan obligations, market value CDOs, and trust preferred securities include all U.S. structured finance pooled corporate obligations and international pooled corporate obligations.

(2) Commercial mortgage-backed securities is comprised of commercial U.S. structured finance and commercial international mortgage backed securities.

(3) Residential mortgage-backed securities is comprised of prime and subprime U.S. mortgage-backed and home equity securities and residential international mortgage-backed and home equity securities.

(4) Other includes all other U.S. and international asset classes, such as commercial receivables and international infrastructure and pooled infrastructure securities. The unrealized loss in other is primarily attributable to a change in the call date assumption for a particular wrapped UK utility transaction and a ratings downgrade on a film securitization transaction.

(5) Represents the sum of subordinate tranches and over-collateralization and does not include any benefit from excess interest collections that may be used to absorb losses.

 

31



Table of Contents

 

Assured Guaranty Ltd.

CDOs of ABS Profile

(dollars in millions)

 

Financial Guaranty Direct Collateralized Debt Obligations of Asset-Backed Securities (CDOs of ABS)(1) Net Par Outstanding by Type of CDO, by Year Insured and by Collateral:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Type of Collateral as a Percent of Total Pool

 

Ratings as of
December 31, 2008

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Year
Insured

 

Legal
Final
Maturity(2)

 

Net Par
Outstanding

 

ABS

 

RMBS
(Includes
Subprime)

 

Comm.
MBS
(CMBS)(3)

 

CDOs of
Investment
Grade
Corporate

 

CDOs of
ABS

 

Total
Collateral
Pool

 

U.S.
Subprime
First Lien
RMBS

 

S&P

 

Moody’s

 

Original AAA
Sub-
ordination(6)

 

Original Sub-
ordination
Below
Assured

 

Current Sub-
ordination Below
Assured

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

CDOs of Mezzanine ABS(3):

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2001

 

2017

 

$

113.5

 

0

%

0

%

100

%

0

%

0

%

100

%

0

%

AAA

 

Aaa

 

25.1

%

25.1

%

30.3

%

2001

 

2016

 

59.7

 

0

%

0

%

100

%

0

%

0

%

100

%

0

%

AAA

 

Aaa

 

28.1

%

28.1

%

40.1

%

2002

 

2017

 

102.1

 

0

%

0

%

100

%

0

%

0

%

100

%

0

%

AAA

 

Aaa

 

24.6

%

24.6

%

39.6

%

2002

 

2017

 

92.9

 

0

%

0

%

100

%

0

%

0

%

100

%

0

%

AAA

 

Aaa

 

22.1

%

22.1

%

31.6

%

2002

 

2017

 

88.7

 

0

%

0

%

100

%

0

%

0

%

100

%

0

%

AAA

 

Aaa

 

35.0

%

35.0

%

48.0

%

2002

 

2017

 

64.8

 

0

%

0

%

100

%

0

%

0

%

100

%

0

%

AAA

 

Aaa

 

24.0

%

24.0

%

34.3

%

2003

 

2018

 

118.6

 

0

%

0

%

100

%

0

%

0

%

100

%

0

%

AAA

 

Aa3

 

20.0

%

20.0

%

26.6

%

2003

 

2038

 

74.5

 

0

%

0

%

100

%

0

%

0

%

100

%

0

%

AAA

 

Aa2

 

23.0

%

38.0

%

49.7

%

2003

 

2018

 

46.5

 

0

%

0

%

100

%

0

%

0

%

100

%

0

%

AAA

 

Aaa

 

63.0

%

63.0

%

66.9

%

 

 

Subtotal:

 

$

761.3

 

0

%

0

%

100

%

0

%

0

%

100

%

0

%

AAA

 

Aa1

 

27.3

%

28.7

%

38.4

%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

CDOs of High Grade ABS(4):

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

No CDO of ABS business written

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

CDOs of Pooled AAA ABS(5):

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2003

 

2010

 

636.2

 

35

%

34

%

26

%

5

%

0

%

100

%

0

%

AAA

 

Aaa

 

0.0

%

12.5

%

12.5

%

 

 

Subtotal:

 

$

636.2

 

35

%

34

%

26

%

5

%

0

%

100

%

0

%

AAA

 

Aaa

 

0.0

%

12.5

%

12.5

%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Total:

 

 

 

$

1,397.5

 

16

%

15

%

66

%

2

%

0

%

100

%

0

%

AAA

 

Aaa

 

14.9

%

21.4

%

26.6

%

 


(1) A “CDO of ABS” is a collateralized debt obligation (CDO) transaction whose collateral pool consists primarily of asset-backed securities (ABS), including mortgage-backed securities (MBS).  ABS transactions securities generally represent an ownership interest in a trust that contains collateral supporting the notes.  Those interests are divided into several tranches that can have varying levels of subordination, credit protection triggers and credit ratings.

(2) “Legal Final Maturity” represents the final date for payment specified in the transaction documents and does not take into account prepayments that shorten the expected maturity and weighted average life.

(3) “CDOs of Mezzanine ABS” is a market term that refers to transactions where the underlying collateral at issuance is comprised primarily of mezzanine tranches rated BBB or lower.  The collateral underlying Assured’s exposure to CDOs of Mezzanine ABS is comprised of mezzanine tranches of CMBS transactions and senior unsecured debt issued by commercial property REITs.  The transactions to which Assured has exposure are static pools rather than actively managed transactions, and the collateral in these static pools was originated primarily in the period from 1997-2003. The collateral underlying Assured’s exposure to CDOs of Mezzanine ABS had weighted average ratings, based on rating information as of December 31, 2008, as follows: 16% AAA, 8% AA, 13% A, 45% BBB and 18% below investment grade (BIG).

(4) “CDOs of High Grade ABS” is a market term that refers to transactions where the underlying collateral at issuance is comprised of mezzanine tranches rated single-A or higher.

(5) “CDOs of Pooled AAA ABS” is a market term that refers to transactions where the underlying collateral at issuance is comprised of the senior-most AAA rated securities.  Assured’s exposure to CDOs of Pooled AAA ABS was rated, based on rating information as of December 31, 2008: 100% AAA.

(6) Represents the sum of subordinate tranches and over-collateralization and does not include any benefit from excess interest collections that may be used to absorb losses.

 

32



Table of Contents

 

Assured Guaranty Ltd.

Non-Investment Grade Exposures

As of December 31, 2008

(dollars in millions)

 

 

 

Weighted Average

 

Net Par

 

Average

 

 

 

Remaining Life

 

Outstanding

 

Rating (1)

 

Non-Investment Grade Exposures by Asset Type:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

U.S. public finance

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Municipal utilities

 

24.1

 

$

464

 

D

 

Tax backed

 

14.1

 

87

 

BB

 

Healthcare

 

15.7

 

71

 

B+

 

General obligation

 

13.1

 

59

 

B+

 

Transportation

 

15.2

 

22

 

D

 

Housing

 

12.8

 

3

 

B-

 

Investor-owned utilities

 

8.5

 

3

 

BB+

 

Higher education

 

12.2

 

1

 

BB+

 

Other public finance

 

32.5

 

357

 

BB+

 

Total U.S. public finance

 

24.7

 

$

1,067

 

B-

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

U.S. structured finance

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Residential mortgage-backed and home equity

 

6.8

 

$

4,408

 

B-

 

Structured credit

 

2.0

 

63

 

BB

 

Pooled corporate obligations

 

1.8

 

13

 

B-

 

Consumer receivables

 

3.9

 

2

 

BB

 

Commercial receivables

 

1.2

 

0

 

CCC-

 

Other structured finance

 

8.8

 

33

 

B

 

Total U.S. structured finance

 

6.7

 

$

4,519

 

B-

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

International

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Insurance securitizations

 

11.3

 

$

923

 

CCC-

 

Infrastructure and pooled infrastructure

 

13.6

 

91

 

B

 

Total international

 

11.5

 

$

1,014

 

CCC

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Total non-investment grade exposures

 

10.3

 

$

6,600

 

CCC+

 

 

Non-Investment Grade Exposures Greater Than $50 Million as of December 31, 2008

 

 

 

Weighted Average

 

Net Par

 

Average

 

 

 

Remaining Life

 

Outstanding

 

Rating (1)

 

Name or Description

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Deutsche Alt-A Securities Mortgage Loan 2007-2

 

7.6

 

$

1,028

 

BB

 

Countrywide Home Equity Loan Trust 2007-D

 

6.0

 

587

 

D

 

Countrywide Home Equity Loan Trust 2005-J Class 1 & 2

 

5.1

 

520

 

D

 

Deutsche Alt-A Securities Mortgage Loan 2007-3

 

4.1

 

520

 

BB

 

Ballantyne Re PLC Class A-2 Floating Rate Notes

 

12.8

 

500

 

D

 

Jefferson County Alabama Sewer

 

24.5

 

452

 

D

 

Orkney Re II, PLC

 

9.6

 

423

 

B

 

CWALT Alternative Loan Trust 2007-OA10

 

3.0

 

184

 

BB

 

Private Student Loan transaction

 

32.5

 

152

 

BB+

 

Private Student Loan transaction

 

28.2

 

110

 

BB+

 

ACE Home Equity Loan Trust 2007-SL2

 

2.9

 

108

 

CCC

 

Argent Securities Inc. 2003-W6

 

4.0

 

98

 

BB

 

Private Student Loan transaction

 

37.6

 

95

 

BB+

 

Morgan Stanley Mortgage Loan Trust 2006-5AR

 

4.7

 

89

 

B

 

SACO I Trust 2005-GP1

 

2.1

 

85

 

D

 

American Home Mortgage Assets Trust 2007-3

 

2.5

 

77

 

D

 

Bear Stearns ABS I Trust 2005-AC6

 

4.0

 

65

 

BB

 

Customer Asset Protection Company (CAPCO) Excess SIPC

 

2.0

 

63

 

BB

 

CSAB Mortgage-Backed Trust 2007-1

 

6.3

 

63

 

B

 

CWHEQ Revolving Home Equity Trust Series 2006-I

 

2.1

 

61

 

D

 

Chevy Chase Funding LLC Series 2006-2 Class A-2

 

3.9

 

57

 

B

 

Total

 

9.8

 

$

5,338

 

CCC+

 

 


(1) Assured’s internal rating.  Assured’s scale is comparable to that of the nationally recognized rating agencies.  The super senior category, which is not generally used by rating agencies, is used by the Company in instances where Assured’s AAA-rated exposure has additional credit enhancement due to either (1) the existence of another security rated AAA that is subordinated to Assured’s exposure or (2) Assured’s exposure benefits from a different form of credit enhancement that would pay any claims first in the event that any of the exposures incurs a loss, and such credit enhancement, in management’s opinion, causes Assured’s attachment point to be materially above the AAA attachment point.

 

Please refer to Glossary for description of selected types of U.S. public finance, U.S. structured finance and International obligations that the Company insures and reinsures.

 

33



Table of Contents

 

Assured Guaranty Ltd.

Closely Monitored Credits (“CMC”)

(dollars in millions)

 

Net Par Outstanding by Credit Monitoring Category (1)

 

 

 

December 31, 2008

 

 

 

Net Par
Outstanding

 

% of total

 

Number of 
Credits in 
Category

 

Description:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Fundamentally sound risk

 

$

215,987

 

97.0

%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Closely monitored credits:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Category 1

 

2,967

 

1.3

%

51

 

Category 2

 

767

 

0.3

%

21

 

Category 3

 

2,889

 

1.3

%

54

 

Category 4

 

20

 

 

14

 

CMC Total

 

6,643

 

3.0

%

140

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Other below investment grade risk

 

92

 

 

89

 

Total

 

$

222,722

 

100.0

%

 

 

 

 

 

December 31, 2007

 

 

 

Net Par 
Outstanding

 

% of total

 

Number of 
Credits in 
Category

 

Description:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Fundamentally sound risk

 

$

198,133

 

98.9

%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Closely monitored credits:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Category 1

 

1,288

 

0.6

%

36

 

Category 2

 

743

 

0.4

%

12

 

Category 3

 

71

 

 

16

 

Category 4

 

24

 

 

16

 

CMC Total

 

2,126

 

1.1

%

80

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Other below investment grade risk

 

20

 

 

46

 

Total

 

$

200,279

 

100.0

%

 

 

 


(1) Assured’s surveillance department is responsible for monitoring the Company’s portfolio of credits and maintains a list of closely monitored credits. The closely monitored credits are divided into four categories: Category 1 (low priority; fundamentally sound, greater than normal risk); Category 2 (medium priority; weakening credit profile, may result in loss); Category 3 (high priority; claim/default probable, case reserve established); Category 4 (claim paid, case reserve established for future payments). The closely monitored credits include all below investment grade (BIG) exposures where there is a material amount of exposure (generally greater than $10.0 million) or a material risk of the Company incurring a loss greater than $0.5 million. The closely monitored credits also include investment grade (IG) risks where credit quality is deteriorating and where, in the view of the Company, there is significant potential that the risk quality will fall below investment grade.

 

34



Table of Contents

 

Assured Guaranty Ltd.

Largest Exposures by Sector (Part 1 of 4)

As of December 31, 2008

(dollars in millions)

 

25 Largest U.S. Public Finance Exposures

 

 

 

Net Par

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Outstanding

 

Rating(1)

 

 

 

Credit Name:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

State of California General Obligation & Leases

 

$

1,546

 

A+

 

 

 

State of New Jersey General Obligation & Leases

 

1,151

 

AA-

 

 

 

Commonwealth of Massachusetts General Obligation & Bay Transportation

 

1,031

 

A

 

 

 

Commonwealth of Puerto Rico General Obligation & Leases

 

1,008

 

BBB-

 

 

 

New York City General Obligation & Leases

 

983

 

A+

 

 

 

City of Chicago General Obligation & Leases

 

934

 

AA-

 

 

 

Los Angeles Unified School District

 

897

 

AA

 

 

 

State of New York General Obligation & Leases

 

893

 

A+

 

 

 

North Texas Toll Road Authority

 

890

 

A

 

 

 

Miami-Dade County Florida Aviation Authority

 

883

 

A

 

 

 

State of Washington General Obligation

 

833

 

AA

 

 

 

San Francisco Airport Commission

 

807

 

A

 

 

 

Denver International Airport System

 

794

 

A+

 

 

 

Pennsylvania State Turnpike Commission

 

759

 

A+

 

 

 

Chicago Public Building Commission - Chicago Board of Education

 

718

 

A

 

 

 

Metropolitan Transportation Authority (New York) - Transportation Revenue

 

718

 

A

 

 

 

District of Columbia General Obligation

 

708

 

A

 

 

 

Long Island Power Authority

 

702

 

A-

 

 

 

Florida State General Obligation

 

675

 

AAA

 

 

 

Port Authority of New York & New Jersey

 

675

 

AA-

 

 

 

Michigan State General Obligation

 

662

 

AA+

 

 

 

Puerto Rico Highway & Transportation Authority

 

638

 

BBB

 

 

 

Hawaii State General Obligation

 

613

 

AA

 

 

 

Miami-Dade County School Board

 

552

 

A

 

 

 

Florida State Department of Environmental Protect

 

479

 

A+

 

 

 

Total top 25 U.S. public finance exposures

 

$

20,549

 

 

 

 

 

 

10 Largest Healthcare Exposures

 

 

 

Net Par

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Outstanding

 

Rating(1)

 

State

 

Credit Name:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Iowa Health System

 

$

418

 

AA-

 

IA

 

Methodist Health System

 

403

 

A

 

TN

 

Christus Health System

 

398

 

A+

 

TX

 

Fairview Hospital & Healthcare Services

 

280

 

A

 

MN

 

Essentia Health

 

262

 

A-

 

MN

 

Integris Health, Inc.

 

255

 

AA

 

OK

 

Meridian Health System Obligated Group

 

212

 

A-

 

NJ

 

Catholic Healthcare West

 

207

 

A

 

CA

 

Lifebridge Health

 

207

 

A

 

MD

 

Spartanburg Regional Healthcare System

 

196

 

AA-

 

SC

 

Total top 10 healthcare exposures

 

$

2,836

 

 

 

 

 

 


(1) Assured’s internal rating.  Assured’s scale is comparable to that of the nationally recognized rating agencies.  The super senior category, which is not generally used by rating agencies, is used by the Company in instances where Assured’s AAA-rated exposure has additional credit enhancement due to either (1) the existence of another security rated AAA that is subordinated to Assured’s exposure or (2) Assured’s exposure benefits from a different form of credit enhancement that would pay any claims first in the event that any of the exposures incurs a loss, and such credit enhancement, in management’s opinion, causes Assured’s attachment point to be materially above the AAA attachment point.

 

35



Table of Contents

 

Assured Guaranty Ltd.

Largest Exposures by Sector (Part 2 of 4)

As of December 31, 2008

(dollars in millions)

 

50 Largest U.S. Structured Finance Exposures

 

 

 

Net Par

 

 

 

Credit

 

 

 

Outstanding

 

Rating(1)

 

Enhancement

 

Credit Name:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Fortress Credit Investments I & II

 

$

1,190

 

AAA

 

25.1

%

Field Point III & IV, Limited

 

1,178

 

AA-

 

21.7

%

Ares Enhanced Credit Opportunities Fund

 

1,152

 

AAA

 

27.3

%

Deutsche Alt-A Securities Mortgage Loan 2007-2

 

1,028

 

BB

 

10.2

%

Discover Card Master Trust I Series A

 

1,000

 

AAA

 

57.5

%

Anchorage Crossover Credit Finance Ltd

 

875

 

AAA / Super senior

 

18.6

%

Prospect Funding I LLC

 

797

 

AAA

 

11.5

%

Park Avenue Receivables Company LLC

 

731

 

AAA

 

2.5

%

MortgageIt Securities Corp. Mortgage Loan 2007-2

 

672

 

AAA

 

11.2

%

280 Funding I - Class A-1 & A-2

 

660

 

AAA

 

39.4

%

Private RMBS Re-Remic

 

652

 

AAA

 

27.0

%

Applebee’s Enterprises LLC

 

623

 

BBB-

 

38.5

%

Sandelman Finance 2006-1 Limited

 

623

 

AA

 

31.5

%

Private RMBS Re-Remic

 

614

 

AAA

 

27.8

%

Goldentree Credit Opportunities Financing I

 

611

 

AAA

 

40.3

%

Private Structured Credit

 

600

 

BBB+

 

Private

 

Private RMBS Re-Remic

 

595

 

AAA

 

26.5

%

Private RMBS Re-Remic

 

595

 

AAA

 

27.2

%

CWHEQ Revolving Home Equity Loan Trust 2007-D

 

587

 

D

 

0.0

%

Field Point I & II, Limited

 

561

 

AA-

 

33.2

%

Jupiter Securitization Company

 

534

 

AAA

 

2.5

%

Liberty CLO Ltd

 

530

 

AAA

 

40.4

%

Countrywide Home Equity Loan Trust 2005-J Class 1 & 2

 

520

 

D

 

0.0

%

Deutsche Alt-A Securities Mortgage Loan 2007-3

 

520

 

BB

 

16.4

%

LIICA Holdings, LLC

 

495

 

AA

 

35.6

%

Shenandoah Trust Capital I Term Securities

 

484

 

A+

 

21.3

%

CWALT Alternative Loan Trust 2007-HY9

 

478

 

A-

 

8.3

%

KKR Financial CLO 2007-1

 

472

 

AAA

 

40.3

%

Aaa Trust 2007-2

 

472

 

A

 

44.4

%

Private RMBS Re-Remic

 

456

 

AA- / Super senior

 

25.3

%

SLM Private Credit Student Loan Trust 2007

 

450

 

AAA

 

10.8

%

Dow Jones CDX.IG.04 7-Year Index (II)

 

425

 

AAA / Super senior

 

30.3

%

Dow Jones CDX.NA.IG.4 Single Tranche Transaction

 

425

 

AAA

 

30.3

%

Dow Jones CDX.IG.04 7-Year Index (I)

 

425

 

AAA

 

30.3

%

Impac CMB Trust Series 2007-A

 

408

 

A+

 

8.0

%

SLM Student Loan Trust 2007

 

392

 

AAA

 

3.1

%

Wasatch CLO, Ltd.

 

389

 

AAA

 

20.7

%

Southfork CLO Ltd. Series 2005-A1 Class A1G

 

380

 

AAA

 

28.4

%

Newstar Credit Opportunities Funding II

 

380

 

AA / Super senior

 

20.5

%

Private RMBS Re-Remic

 

378

 

AAA

 

38.0

%

Cent CDO XI Limited

 

373

 

AAA

 

22.9

%

SLM Private Credit Student Loan Trust 2006

 

356

 

AAA

 

10.9

%

ACS 2007-1 Pass Through Trust G-1

 

333

 

A

 

39.2

%

Alesco Preferred Funding XIV

 

333

 

AAA

 

40.2

%

Dow Jones CDX.IG.08 5 Year

 

326

 

AAA

 

30.3

%

Comstock Funding Ltd

 

326

 

AAA

 

27.4

%

Mountain View CLO II

 

322

 

AAA

 

23.0

%

HSAM Long/Short 2007-2

 

315

 

AAA

 

28.9

%

United Commercial Mortgage Securities 2007-1

 

308

 

A

 

8.5

%

Taberna Preferred Funding VIII

 

305

 

AAA

 

50.0

%

Total top 50 U.S. structured finance exposures

 

$

27,654

 

 

 

 

 

 


(1) Assured’s internal rating. Assured’s scale is comparable to that of the nationally recognized rating agencies. The super senior category, which is not generally used by rating agencies, is used by the Company in instances where Assured’s AAA-rated exposure has additional credit enhancement due to either (1) the existence of another security rated AAA that is subordinated to Assured’s exposure or (2) Assured’s exposure benefits from a different form of credit enhancement that would pay any claims first in the event that any of the exposures incurs a loss and such credit enhancement, in management’s opinion, causes Assured’s attachment point to be materially above the AAA attachment point.

 

36



Table of Contents

 

Assured Guaranty Ltd.

Largest Exposures by Sector (Part 3 of 4)

As of December 31, 2008

(dollars in millions)

 

25 Largest International Exposures

 

 

 

Net Par

 

 

 

 

 

Outstanding

 

Rating(1)

 

Credit Name:

 

 

 

 

 

Prime European RMBS

 

$

1,306

 

AAA

 

Permanent Master Issuer PLC

 

1,261

 

AAA

 

Arkle Master Issuer PLC

 

1,245

 

AAA

 

Gracechurch Mortgage Financing PLC

 

1,237

 

AAA

 

Essential Public Infrastructure Capital II

 

961

 

AAA

 

Granite Master Issuer PLC

 

943

 

AAA

 

Graphite Mortgages PLC Provide Graphite 2005-2

 

941

 

AAA

 

Essential Public Infrastructure Capital III

 

850

 

AAA

 

Paragon Mortgages (No.13) PLC

 

657

 

AAA

 

International Infrastructure Pool

 

643

 

AAA

 

International Infrastructure Pool

 

643

 

AAA

 

International Infrastructure Pool

 

643

 

AAA

 

Synthetic CDO - IG ABS

 

636

 

AAA

 

Taberna Europe CDO II PLC

 

571

 

AAA

 

United Utilities Water PLC

 

540

 

A

 

Global Senior Loan Index Fund 1 B.V.

 

519

 

AAA

 

Stichting Profile Securitisation I

 

514

 

AAA

 

Ballantyne Re PLC Class A-2 Floating Rate Notes

 

500

 

D

 

National Grid Gas PLC

 

473

 

A

 

Northumbrian Water PLC

 

467

 

BBB+

 

Harvest CLO III

 

466

 

AAA

 

Nemus Funding No.1 PLC

 

446

 

AAA

 

Rmf Euro CDO V PLC

 

436

 

AAA

 

Taberna Europe CDO I PLC

 

434

 

AAA

 

Orkney Re II PLC

 

423

 

B

 

Total top 25 international exposures

 

$

17,756

 

 

 

 


(1) Assured’s internal rating.  Assured’s scale is comparable to that of the nationally recognized rating agencies.  The super senior category, which is not generally used by rating agencies, is used by the Company in instances where Assured’s AAA-rated exposure has additional credit enhancement due to either (1) the existence of another security rated AAA that is subordinated to Assured’s exposure or (2) Assured’s exposure benefits from a different form of credit enhancement that would pay any claims first in the event that any of the exposures incurs a loss and such credit enhancement, in management’s opinion, causes Assured’s attachment point to be materially above the AAA attachment point.

 

37



Table of Contents

 

Assured Guaranty Ltd.

Largest Exposures by Sector (Part 4 of 4)

As of December 31, 2008

(dollars in millions)

 

10 Largest Residential Mortgage Servicers Exposures

 

 

 

Net Par

 

 

 

Outstanding

 

Servicer:

 

 

 

Countrywide Home Loans, Inc.

 

$

4,220

 

Wells Fargo Home Mortgage, Inc.

 

2,842

 

Residential Funding Corporation

 

2,202

 

Northern Rock PLC

 

1,883

 

European Mortgage Servicer (Private Transaction)

 

1,306

 

Halifax PLC

 

1,265

 

Cheltenham & Gloucester PLC

 

1,245

 

Barclays Bank PLC

 

1,237

 

EMC Mortgage Corp

 

1,119

 

AMC Mortgage Services

 

718

 

Total top 10 residential mortgage servicers exposures

 

$

18,037

 

 

38



Table of Contents

 

Assured Guaranty Ltd.

Consolidated Capital and Claims Paying Resources

(dollars in millions)

 

 

 

As of December 31, 2008

 

As of December 31, 2007

 

 

 

Assured
Guaranty 
Corp.

 

Assured 
Guaranty Re
 Ltd. (1)

 

Consolidated

 

Assured 
Guaranty 
Corp.

 

Assured 
Guaranty Re
Ltd. (1)

 

Consolidated

 

Statutory surplus and reserves

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Unearned premium reserve (2)

 

$

570

 

$

720

 

$

1,290

 

$

302

 

$

629

 

$

931

 

Contingency reserve

 

712

 

 

712

 

582

 

 

582

 

Policyholders’ surplus

 

378

 

1,220

 

1,598

 

400

 

1,097

 

1,497

 

Loss & loss adjustment expense reserves (3)

 

15

 

37

 

52

 

12

 

18

 

30

 

Total policyholders’ surplus and reserves

 

$

1,675

 

$

1,977

 

$

3,652

 

$

1,296

 

$

1,744

 

$

3,040

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Claims paying resources

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Policyholders’ surplus

 

$

378

 

$

1,220

 

$

1,598

 

$

400

 

$

1,097

 

$

1,497

 

Contingency reserve

 

712

 

 

712

 

582

 

 

582

 

Qualified statutory capital

 

1,090

 

1,220

 

2,310

 

982

 

1,097

 

2,079

 

Unearned premium reserve (2)

 

570

 

720

 

1,290

 

302

 

629

 

931

 

Loss and loss adjustment expense reserves (3)

 

15

 

37

 

52

 

12

 

18

 

30

 

Total policyholders’ surplus and reserves

 

1,675

 

1,977

 

3,652

 

1,296

 

1,744

 

3,040

 

Present value of installment premium (d)

 

566

 

345

 

910

 

554

 

366

 

920

 

Standby line of credit/stop loss

 

200

 

200

 

400

 

280

 

200

 

480

 

Total claims paying resources

 

$

2,441

 

$

2,522

 

$

4,962

 

$

2,130

 

$

2,310

 

$

4,440

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Net par insured outstanding

 

$

111,025

 

$

111,715

 

$

222,722

 

$

94,127

 

$

106,253

 

$

200,279

 

Net debt service outstanding

 

$

164,283

 

$

184,541

 

$

348,816

 

$

128,351

 

$

174,173

 

$

302,413

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Ratios:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Net par insured to statutory capital

 

102:1

 

92:1

 

96:1

 

96:1

 

97:1

 

96:1

 

Capital ratio (4)

 

151:1

 

151:1

 

151:1

 

131:1

 

159:1

 

145:1

 

Financial resources ratio (5)

 

67:1

 

73:1

 

70:1

 

60:1

 

75:1

 

68:1

 

 


(1) Assured Guaranty Re Ltd. (AG Re) numbers are the Company’s estimate of U.S. statutory as the company files Bermuda statutory financial statements.

(2) Unearned premium reserve for AG Re is U.S. GAAP based, includes unearned revenues on credit derivatives and is net of prepaid reinsurance premiums.

(3) Loss and loss adjustment reserves for AG Re are U.S. GAAP based, includes loss reserves for credit derivatives and is net of reinsurance recoverable and portfolio reserves.

(4) The capital ratio is calculated by dividing net par and interest insured by qualified statutory capital.

(5) The financial resources ratio is calculated by dividing net par and interest insured by total claims paying resources.

 

Note: Please refer to endnotes for explanation of non-GAAP financial measures [net present value of estimated future installment premiums in force (d)].

 

39



Table of Contents

 

Assured Guaranty Ltd.

Summary Financial and Statistical Data

(dollars in millions, except per share amounts)

 

 

 

Year Ended December 31,

 

 

 

2008

 

2007

 

2006

 

2005

 

GAAP Summary Income Statement Data

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Gross written premiums

 

$

618.3

 

$

424.5

 

$

261.3

 

$

192.1

 

Net earned premiums

 

261.4

 

159.3

 

144.8

 

139.4

 

Realized gains and other settlements on credit derivatives

 

117.6

 

74.0

 

73.9

 

57.1

 

Net investment income

 

162.6

 

128.1

 

111.5

 

96.8

 

Total expenses

 

440.9

 

161.4

 

150.4

 

70.7

 

Income (loss) before provision for income taxes

 

112.3

 

(463.0

)

190.0

 

229.6

 

Net income (loss)

 

68.9

 

(303.3

)

159.7

 

188.4

 

Operating income (b)

 

74.5

 

178.0

 

157.2

 

190.0

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Net income (loss) per diluted share

 

$

0.77

 

$

(4.46

)

$

2.15

 

$

2.53

 

Operating income per diluted share

 

$

0.84

 

$

2.57

 

$

2.12

 

$

2.55

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Financial Ratios:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Loss and LAE ratio (e)

 

81.4

%

3.4

%

(3.3

)%

(35.0

)%

Expense ratio (e)

 

38.7

%

55.8

%

59.2

%

58.9

%

Combined ratio (e)

 

120.1

%

59.2

%

55.9

%

23.9

%

GAAP Summary Balance Sheet Data (End of Period)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Total investments and cash

 

$

3,643.6

 

$

3,147.9

 

$

2,469.9

 

$

2,256.0

 

Total assets

 

4,555.7

 

3,762.9

 

2,931.6

 

2,689.8

 

Unearned premium reserves

 

1,233.7

 

887.2

 

631.0

 

524.6

 

Loss and LAE reserves

 

196.8

 

125.6

 

115.9

 

117.4

 

Senior notes

 

197.4

 

197.4

 

197.4

 

197.3

 

Series A Enhanced Junior Subordinated Debentures

 

149.8

 

149.7

 

149.7

 

 

Shareholders’ equity

 

1,926.2

 

1,666.6

 

1,650.8

 

1,661.5

 

Book value per share

 

$

21.18

 

$

20.85

 

$

24.44

 

$

22.22

 

Other Financial Information:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Net debt service outstanding (end of period)

 

$

348,816

 

$

302,413

 

$

180,174

 

$

145,694

 

Gross debt service outstanding (end of period)

 

354,858

 

307,657

 

181,503

 

148,836

 

Net par outstanding (end of period)

 

222,722

 

200,279

 

132,296

 

102,465

 

Gross par outstanding (end of period)

 

227,164

 

204,809

 

133,303

 

105,258

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Consolidated qualified statutory capital

 

2,310

 

2,079

 

1,658

 

1,545

 

Consolidated policyholders’ surplus and reserves

 

3,652

 

3,040

 

2,374

 

2,182

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Ratios:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Par insured to statutory capital

 

96:1

 

96:1

 

80:1

 

66:1

 

Capital ratio(1)

 

151:1

 

145:1

 

109:1

 

94:1

 

Financial resources ratio(2)

 

70:1

 

68:1

 

53:1

 

48:1

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Gross debt service written:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

U.S. public finance

 

$

68,265

 

$

66,190

 

$

13,261

 

$

13,335

 

U.S. structured finance

 

13,972

 

42,414

 

28,902

 

16,724

 

International

 

8,840

 

24,971

 

17,979

 

5,729

 

Total gross debt service written

 

$

91,078

 

$

133,575

 

$

60,142

 

$

35,788

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Net debt service written

 

89,871

 

129,872

 

59,775

 

35,440

 

Net par written

 

55,418

 

84,686

 

50,541

 

26,020

 

Gross par written

 

56,140

 

88,117

 

50,892

 

26,320

 

 


(1) The capital ratio is calculated by dividing net par and interest insured by qualified statutory capital.

(2) The financial resources ratio is calculated by dividing net par and interest insured by total claims paying resources.

 

Note: Please refer to endnotes for explanation of non-GAAP financial measures [operating income (b) and loss and loss adjustment expense ratio, expense ratio and combined ratio (e)].

 

40



Table of Contents

 

Assured Guaranty Ltd.

Appendix

Credit Derivatives

(dollars in millions)

 

As part of its financial guaranty (FG) insurance business, the Company selects, structures and sells credit protection through credit default swaps (“CDS”) in the institutional fixed income markets. The Company generates revenues through the premiums paid by third parties to insure against the risk of default on the assets underlying the CDS. In this appendix, the Company has presented the credit default swap premiums in its financial guaranty direct and financial guaranty reinsurance segments, which were included in prior period financial information in Gross written premiums, Net written premiums, Net earned premiums, Loss and loss adjustment expenses (recoveries) and Acquisition Costs. The effect of these credit derivative premiums has been included in “Realized gains and other settlements on credit derivatives” and “Unrealized gains (losses) on credit derivatives” in income statements. Management’s decision to reclassify these amounts was based on evolving financial guaranty industry practice.  Management believe that this reclassification will increase comparability of its financial statements with other companies who participate in the CDS market. These reclassifications had no impact on underwriting gain (loss), loss and loss adjustment expense ratio, expense ratio, combined ratio, operating income or net income.

 

 

 

1Q-07

 

2Q-07

 

3Q-07

 

4Q-07

 

Credit derivatives included in:

 

FG Direct

 

FG
Reinsurance

 

Total FG

 

FG Direct

 

FG 
Reinsurance

 

Total FG

 

FG Direct

 

FG
Reinsurance

 

Total FG

 

FG Direct

 

FG
Reinsurance

 

Total FG

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Gross written premiums

 

$

17.4

 

$

 

$

17.4

 

$

17.1

 

$

 

$

17.1

 

$

20.9

 

$

 

$

20.9

 

$

26.0

 

$

 

$

26.0

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Net written premiums

 

17.0

 

 

17.0

 

16.4

 

 

16.4

 

19.9

 

 

19.9

 

25.0

 

 

25.0

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Net earned premiums (1)

 

16.8

 

 

16.8

 

16.3

 

 

16.3

 

17.6

 

 

17.6

 

22.0

 

 

22.0

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Loss and loss adjustment expenses (recoveries):

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Net credit derivative losses paid (recovered) and payable (recoverable) (1)

 

(0.0

)

 

(0.0

)

(0.0

)

 

(0.0

)

(0.0

)

 

(0.0

)

(0.0

)

 

(0.0

)

Incurred losses on credit derivatives (2)

 

0.6

 

 

0.6

 

0.7

 

 

0.7

 

1.8

 

 

1.8

 

0.5

 

 

0.5

 

Total loss and loss adjustment expenses (recoveries)

 

0.5

 

 

0.5

 

0.7

 

 

0.7

 

1.7

 

 

1.7

 

0.5

 

 

0.5

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Acquisition costs (1)

 

0.0

 

 

0.0

 

(0.1

)

 

(0.1

)

0.1

 

 

0.1

 

(0.2

)

 

(0.2

)

 

 

 

1Q-08

 

2Q-08

 

3Q-08

 

4Q-08

 

Credit derivatives included in:

 

FG Direct

 

FG
Reinsurance

 

Total FG

 

FG Direct

 

FG
Reinsurance

 

Total FG

 

FG Direct

 

FG
Reinsurance

 

Total FG

 

FG Direct

 

FG
Reinsurance

 

Total FG

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Gross written premiums

 

$

28.8

 

$

5.1

 

$

33.8

 

$

33.4

 

$

1.1

 

$

34.5

 

$

25.3

 

$

1.8

 

$

27.0

 

$

33.5

 

$

0.7

 

$

34.2

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Net written premiums

 

27.6

 

5.1

 

32.7

 

32.3

 

1.1

 

33.4

 

24.2

 

1.8

 

26.0

 

32.3

 

0.7

 

33.0

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Net earned premiums (1)

 

27.3

 

0.5

 

27.8

 

30.6

 

0.8

 

31.5

 

28.4

 

2.1

 

30.5

 

26.8

 

1.5

 

28.3

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Loss and loss adjustment expenses (recoveries):

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Net credit derivative losses paid (recovered) and payable (recoverable) (1)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Incurred losses on credit derivatives (2)

 

3.2

 

 

3.2

 

5.6

 

 

5.6

 

10.1

 

 

10.1

 

19.5

 

5.4

 

24.8

 

Total loss and loss adjustment expenses (recoveries)

 

3.2

 

 

3.2

 

5.6

 

 

5.6

 

10.1

 

 

10.1

 

19.5

 

5.4

 

24.8

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Acquisition costs (1)

 

(0.1

)

(0.2

)

(0.2

)

0.2

 

(0.3

)

(0.1

)

0.2

 

(0.7

)

(0.5

)

0.3

 

(0.4

)

(0.1

)

 


(1) Included in “Realized gains and other settlements on credit derivatives” in income statements.

(2) Included in “Unrealized gains (losses) on credit derivatives” in income statements.

 

41



Table of Contents

 

Glossary

 

Below are the brief descriptions of selected types of U.S. public finance, U.S. structured finance and International obligations that the Company insures and reinsures. For a more complete description, please refer to Assured Guaranty Ltd.’s 10-K report.

 

Other public finance: primarily includes government insured student loans, government-sponsored project finance and structured municipal which includes excess of loss reinsurance on portfolios of municipal credits.

 

Pooled corporate obligations are structured financings backed by a pool of debt obligations. These financings are typically structured in multiple tranches (layers) from equity (first loss) through super senior (high excess). Losses on defaulted pool assets are allocated successively first to the equity tranche then to higher rated tranches.

 

Residential mortgage-backed and home equity: includes individual and repackaged securities backed by either prime, Alt-A, or subprime first and second lien mortgages. Alt-A Option ARMs:  includes transactions where 66% or more of the collateral is comprised of mortgage loans that have the potential to negatively amortize. Alt-A First Lien:  includes all transactions, other than Alt-A Option ARM transactions, where more than 50% of the collateral is comprised of mortgage loans that were originated with less than full documentation.

 

Consumer receivables: principally includes auto loan receivables and credit card receivables.

 

Commercial mortgage-backed securities: includes individual and repackaged securities backed by commercial mortgage-backed securities.

 

Commercial receivables: includes equipment loans or leases, fleet auto financings and franchise loans.

 

Structured credit: includes whole business securitizations and intellectual property securitizations. Whole business securitizations are obligations backed by revenue-producing assets sold to a limited-purpose company by an operating company, including franchise agreements, lease agreements, intellectual property and real property.

 

Other structured finance: includes, manufactured housing, collateralized debt obligations of asset-backed securities and other securitizations not included in other asset classes.

 

42



Table of Contents

 

Endnotes related to non-GAAP financial measures discussed in the financial supplement:

 

(a) Present value of financial guaranty and credit derivative gross written premiums, or PVP, which is a non-GAAP financial measure, is defined as gross upfront and installment premiums received and the present value of gross estimated future installment premiums, on insurance and credit derivative contracts written in the current period, discounted at 6% per year. Management believes that PVP is a useful measure for management, investors and analysts because it permits the evaluation of the value of new business production for Assured by taking into account the value of estimated future installment premiums on all new contracts underwritten in a reporting period, whether in insurance or credit derivative contract form, which GAAP gross premiums written and the net credit derivative premiums received and receivable portion of net realized gains and other settlement on credit derivatives (“credit derivative revenues”) does not adequately measure. Actual future net earned or written premiums and credit derivative revenues may differ from PVP due to factors such as prepayments, amortizations, refundings, contract terminations or defaults that may or may not be influenced by market interest rates, refinancing or refunding activity, prepayment speeds, policy changes or terminations, credit defaults, or other factors that management cannot control or predict. This measure should not be viewed as a substitute for gross written premiums determined in accordance with GAAP.

 

(b) Operating income, which is a non-GAAP financial measure, is defined as net income (loss) excluding i) after-tax realized gains (losses) on investments and ii) after-tax unrealized gains (losses) on credit derivatives and the fair value adjustment of the Company’s committed capital securities, other than the Company’s net estimate of after-tax incurred case and portfolio loss and loss adjusted expense reserves for credit derivatives. Operating return on equity (ROE) represents operating income as a percentage of average shareholders’ equity, excluding accumulated other comprehensive income and after-tax unrealized gains (losses) on credit derivatives. Management believes that operating income and operating ROE are useful measures for management, investors and analysts because the presentation of operating income and operating ROE enhance the understanding of Assured’s results of operations by highlighting the underlying profitability of Assured’s business. Realized gains (losses) on investments and unrealized gains (losses) on credit derivatives and the fair value adjustment of the Company’s committed capital securities, other than the portion attributable to the Company’s net estimate of incurred case and portfolio loss and loss adjustment expense reserves for credit derivatives, are excluded because the amount of both of these gains (losses) is heavily influenced by, and fluctuates, in part, according to changes in market interest rates, credit spreads and other factors that management cannot control or predict. These measures should not be viewed as substitutes for net income (loss) or ROE determined in accordance with GAAP.

 

(c) Adjusted book value, which is a non-GAAP financial measure, is defined as shareholders’ equity (book value) plus the after-tax value of the unearned premium reserve net of prepaid reinsurance premiums, the after-tax value of unearned premium on credit derivatives net of prepaid reinsurance premiums and the after-tax net present value of estimated future installment premiums in force, less future ceding commissions, discounted at 6%, less after-tax deferred acquisition costs. Management believes that adjusted book value is a useful measure for management, equity analysts and investors because the calculation of adjusted book value permits an evaluation of the net present value of the Company’s in force premiums and shareholders’ equity. The premiums described above will be earned in future periods, but may differ materially from the estimated amounts used in determining current adjusted book value due to changes in market interest rates, refinancing or refunding activity, prepayment speeds, policy changes or terminations, credit defaults and other factors that management cannot control or predict. This measure should not be viewed as a substitute for book value determined in accordance with GAAP.

 

(d) Net present value of estimated future installment premiums in force, which is a non-GAAP financial measure, is defined as the present value of estimated future installment premiums from our financial guaranty and credit derivative in-force books of business, net of reinsurance and discounted at 6%. Management believes that net present value of estimated future installment premiums in force is a useful measure for management, investors and analysts because it permits an evaluation of the value of future estimated financial guaranty and credit derivative installment premiums. Estimated future premiums may change from period to period due to changes in par outstanding, maturity, or other factors that management cannot control or predict that result from market interest rates, refinancing or refunding activity, prepayment speeds, policy changes or terminations, credit defaults, or other factors. There is no comparable GAAP financial measure.

 

(e) Loss ratio, which is a non-GAAP financial measure, is defined as loss and loss adjustment expenses (recoveries) plus the Company’s net estimate of credit derivative incurred case and portfolio loss and loss adjustment expense reserves, which is included in unrealized gains (losses) on credit derivatives, plus net credit derivative losses (recoveries), which is included in realized gains and other settlements on credit derivatives, divided by net earned premiums plus net credit derivative premiums earned, which is included in realized gains and other settlements on credit derivatives. Expense ratio is calculated by dividing the sum of ceding commissions expense (income), profit commission expense, acquisition costs and operating expenses by net earned premiums plus net credit derivative premiums earned, which is included in realized gains and other settlements on credit derivatives. Combined ratio, which is a non-GAAP financial measure, is the sum of the loss ratio and the expense ratio. Management believes that loss, expense and combined ratios are useful measures for management, investors and analysts to measure the Company’s underwriting performance. There are no comparable GAAP financial measures.

 

For adjusted book value, net present value of estimated future installment premiums in force, and PVP, Assured uses 6% as the present value discount rate because it is the approximate taxable equivalent yield on Assured’s investment portfolio for the periods presented.

 

43



Table of Contents

 

 

 

 

Contacts:

 

 

 

 

 

Equity Investors and Media

 

 

Sabra Purtill

 

 

Managing Director, Global Communications and Investor Relations

 

 

(212) 408-6044

 

 

spurtill@assuredguaranty.com

 

 

 

 

 

Ross Aron

 

 

Associate, Investor Relations

 

 

(212) 261-5509

 

 

raron@assuredguaranty.com

 

 

 

Assured Guaranty Ltd.

 

Fixed Income Investors

30 Woodbourne Avenue

 

Michael Walker

Hamilton HM 08

 

Director, Fixed Income Investor Relations

Bermuda

 

(212) 261-5575

www.assuredguaranty.com

 

mwalker@assuredguaranty.com

 

 

 

 

 

Media

 

 

Ashweeta Durani

 

 

Vice President, Global Communications and Media Relations

 

 

(212) 408-6042

 

 

adurani@assuredguaranty.com