-----BEGIN PRIVACY-ENHANCED MESSAGE----- Proc-Type: 2001,MIC-CLEAR Originator-Name: webmaster@www.sec.gov Originator-Key-Asymmetric: MFgwCgYEVQgBAQICAf8DSgAwRwJAW2sNKK9AVtBzYZmr6aGjlWyK3XmZv3dTINen TWSM7vrzLADbmYQaionwg5sDW3P6oaM5D3tdezXMm7z1T+B+twIDAQAB MIC-Info: RSA-MD5,RSA, H20c5FDWdgoNpENRW+U6IvP97mpWu2NYFaX4G1eKyrgBtlMNlKmZwv0Ft0aA5mQk KyqwNRsaAesdeQX8LIz35A== 0001104659-08-050926.txt : 20080807 0001104659-08-050926.hdr.sgml : 20080807 20080807170017 ACCESSION NUMBER: 0001104659-08-050926 CONFORMED SUBMISSION TYPE: 8-K PUBLIC DOCUMENT COUNT: 6 CONFORMED PERIOD OF REPORT: 20080807 ITEM INFORMATION: Results of Operations and Financial Condition ITEM INFORMATION: Financial Statements and Exhibits FILED AS OF DATE: 20080807 DATE AS OF CHANGE: 20080807 FILER: COMPANY DATA: COMPANY CONFORMED NAME: ASSURED GUARANTY LTD CENTRAL INDEX KEY: 0001273813 STANDARD INDUSTRIAL CLASSIFICATION: SURETY INSURANCE [6351] IRS NUMBER: 000000000 FILING VALUES: FORM TYPE: 8-K SEC ACT: 1934 Act SEC FILE NUMBER: 001-32141 FILM NUMBER: 08999359 MAIL ADDRESS: STREET 1: 30 WOOD BOURNE AVE CITY: HAMILTON BERMUDA STATE: D0 ZIP: 0000 FORMER COMPANY: FORMER CONFORMED NAME: AGR LTD DATE OF NAME CHANGE: 20040122 FORMER COMPANY: FORMER CONFORMED NAME: AGC HOLDINGS LTD DATE OF NAME CHANGE: 20031218 8-K 1 a08-20687_18k.htm 8-K

 

 

UNITED STATES

SECURITIES AND EXCHANGE COMMISSION

Washington, D.C. 20549

 


 

FORM 8-K

 

Current Report

Pursuant To Section 13 or 15 (d) of the

Securities Exchange Act of 1934

 

Date of Report (Date of earliest event reported) — August 7, 2008

 


 

ASSURED GUARANTY LTD.

(Exact name of registrant as specified in its charter)

 

Bermuda

 

001-32141

 

98-0429991

(State or other jurisdiction of
incorporation or organization)

 

(Commission File Number)

 

(I.R.S. Employer Identification No.)

 

Assured Guaranty Ltd.

30 Woodbourne Avenue

Hamilton HM 08 Bermuda

(Address of principal executive offices)

 

Registrant’s telephone number, including area code: (441) 299-9375

 

Not applicable

(Former name or former address, if changed since last report)

 

Check the appropriate box below if the Form 8-K filing is intended to simultaneously satisfy the filing obligation of the registrant under any of the following provisions (see General Instruction A.2. below):

 

o      Written communications pursuant to Rule 425 under the Securities Act (17 CFR 230.425)

 

o      Soliciting material pursuant to Rule 14a-12 under the Exchange Act (17 CFR 240.14a-12)

 

o      Pre-commencement communications pursuant to Rule 14d-2(b) under the Exchange Act (17 CFR 240.14d-2(b))

 

o      Pre-commencement communications pursuant to Rule 13e-4(c) under the Exchange Act (17 CFR 240.13e-4(c))

 

 

 



 

Item 2.02          Results of Operations and Financial Condition

 

On August 7, 2008, Assured Guaranty Ltd. issued a press release reporting its second quarter 2008 results and the availability of its second quarter financial supplement. The press release and the financial supplement are attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1 and Exhibit 99.2, respectively, and are hereby incorporated herein by reference.

 

Item 9.01          Financial Statements, Pro Forma Financial Information and Exhibits.

 

(d)  Exhibits

 

Exhibit

 

 

Number

 

Description

 

 

 

99.1

 

Press release, dated August 7, 2008 reporting second quarter results

 

 

 

99.2

 

Second quarter 2008 Financial Supplement

 

2



 

SIGNATURES

 

Pursuant to the requirements of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, the Registrant has duly caused this report to be signed on its behalf by the undersigned thereunto duly authorized.

 

 

 

ASSURED GUARANTY LTD.

 

 

 

 

By:

/S/ Robert B. Mills

 

 

 

 

 

Robert B. Mills

 

 

Chief Financial Officer

DATE:  August 7, 2008

 

3


EX-99.1 2 a08-20687_1ex99d1.htm EX-99.1

Exhibit 99.1

 

 

Press Release
 

Assured Guaranty Ltd. Reports Second Quarter 2008 Net Income

of $545.2 Million; Operating Income Per Diluted Share $0.42

 

Hamilton, Bermuda, August 7, 2008 – Assured Guaranty Ltd. (NYSE: AGO) (“Assured” or “the Company”) reported net income of $545.2 million ($5.97 per diluted share) for the quarter ending June 30, 2008 (“second quarter 2008”) compared to net income of $32.8 million ($0.47 per diluted share) for the quarter ended June 30, 2007 (“second quarter 2007”).  The increase in second quarter 2008 net income resulted principally from a $518.3 million increase in after-tax unrealized gains on credit derivatives ($5.71 per diluted share) over second quarter 2007.  The Company’s credit derivatives are generally held to maturity and management expects that the unrealized gain or loss on a credit derivative will reduce to zero as the exposure approaches its maturity date, unless there is a payment default on the exposure.

 

“Our second quarter results for new business production in both direct and reinsurance reflect our strong position in a difficult market,” stated Dominic Frederico, President and Chief Executive Officer of Assured Guaranty Ltd. “Our overall credit profile across our entire portfolio remained strong during the quarter with only a modest increase in our Closely Monitored Credit list. We did increase loss estimates on one closed end second lien deal.  With regard to Moody’s decision to place our ratings under review for possible downgrade, we hope that Moody’s will reach a timely and favorable resolution and are committed to working with them to achieve this. We have had several discussions with them in the past two weeks and expect several more meetings and discussions to occur as we look to get more clarity on their specific issues and potential solutions.”

 

Operating income, a financial measure that is not in accordance with U.S. Generally Accepted Accounting Principles (“non-GAAP financial measure”), was $38.7 million ($0.42 per diluted share) in second quarter 2008 compared to operating income of $46.7 million ($0.68 per diluted share) in second quarter 2007.  The decrease in operating income was principally due to $38.1 million of pre-tax loss and loss adjustment expenses ($30.4 million after-tax or $0.33 per diluted share) in second quarter 2008 compared to a pre-tax loss and loss adjustment recovery of $9.8 million ($4.5 million after-tax or $0.07 per diluted share) in second quarter 2007.  See the “Explanation of Non-GAAP Financial Measures” section of this press release for a definition of operating income and other non-GAAP financial measures referenced in this press release.

 

1



 

Analysis of Net Income(1)

($ in millions)

 

 

 

2Q-08

 

2Q-07

 

Operating income

 

$

38.7

 

$

46.7

 

Plus: After-tax realized gains (losses) on investments

 

0.9

 

(1.3

)

Plus: After-tax unrealized gains (losses) on credit derivatives(2)

 

505.6

 

(12.7

)

Net income

 

$

545.2

 

$

32.8

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Weighted average shares outstanding (in millions):

 

 

 

 

 

Basic - GAAP

 

89.9

 

67.8

 

Diluted - GAAP

 

91.4

 

69.2

 

 

Per Diluted Share (1)

 

 

 

2Q-08

 

2Q-07

 

Operating Income

 

$

0.42

 

$

0.68

 

Plus: After-tax realized gains (losses) on investments

 

0.01

 

(0.02

)

Plus: After-tax unrealized gains (losses) on credit derivatives(1)

 

5.53

 

(0.18

)

Net income

 

$

5.97

 

$

0.47

 

 


(1) Some amounts may not add due to rounding.

(2) The quarter ended June 30, 2008 included a fair value after-tax gain of $5.8 million ($0.06 per diluted share) related to Assured Guaranty Corp.’s committed capital securities.

 

Non-GAAP Financial Measures

 

This press release references several non-GAAP financial measures to assist analysts and investors in evaluating Assured’s financial results.  These non-GAAP financial measures are defined in the “Explanation of Non-GAAP Financial Measures” section of the press release.  In each case the most directly comparable GAAP financial measure, if available, is presented and a reconciliation of the non-GAAP financial measure and GAAP financial measure is provided. This presentation is consistent with how Assured’s management, analysts and investors evaluate its financial results and is comparable to estimates published by analysts in their research reports on Assured.  The non-GAAP financial measures included in this press release are: operating income, present value of financial guaranty and credit derivative gross written premiums (“PVP”), net present value of estimated future installment premiums in force and adjusted book value.

 

Present Value of Financial Guaranty and Credit Derivative Gross Written Premiums

 

Assured’s second quarter 2008 consolidated new business production as measured by the present value of financial guaranty and credit derivative gross written premiums (“PVP”), a non-GAAP financial measure, was $278.9 million, a 123% increase compared to second quarter 2007.  The increase in PVP resulted largely from the growth in the Company’s financial guaranty direct segment, which generated PVP of $241.4 million in second quarter 2008, a 132% increase from the same period last year.  U.S. public finance PVP in the financial guaranty direct segment reached $183.2 million, a Company record, compared to $15.4 million in second quarter 2007.  U.S. structured finance PVP was $51.9 million, an increase of only 4% over second quarter 2007 due to limited new issuance activity in that market.  International PVP totaled $6.3 million, a decline of $32.5 million from second quarter 2007, due to reduced new business activity in both the infrastructure and structured finance markets.

 

2



 

Financial guaranty reinsurance PVP for the second quarter 2008 was $37.5 million, an increase of 76% compared to $21.3 million in PVP for the second quarter 2007, and reflected a large facultative reinsurance cession of PMI Guaranty Co. business as well as treaty cessions from Financial Security Assurance Inc., Assured’s only treaty client.

 

Analysis of PVP(1)

($ in millions)

 

Gross written premiums (“GWP”) analysis:

 

 

 

2Q-08

 

2Q-07

 

%
Change

 

Present value of financial guaranty and credit derivative GWP (“PVP”)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Financial guaranty direct

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

U.S. public finance

 

$

183.2

 

$

15.4

 

1090

%

U.S. structured finance

 

51.9

 

49.9

 

4

%

International

 

6.3

 

38.8

 

(84

)%

Total financial guaranty direct

 

241.4

 

104.0

 

132

%

Financial guaranty reinsurance(2)

 

37.5

 

21.3

 

76

%

Total PVP

 

278.9

 

125.3

 

123

%

Less: PVP of credit derivatives

 

52.3

 

39.2

 

33

%

PVP of financial guaranty GWP

 

226.6

 

86.1

 

163

%

Less: Financial guaranty installment premium PVP

 

14.8

 

33.7

 

(56

)%

Total: Financial guaranty upfront GWP

 

211.8

 

52.4

 

304

%

Plus: Financial guaranty installment GWP

 

34.0

 

18.7

 

82

%

Total financial guaranty GWP

 

245.8

 

71.1

 

246

%

Plus: Mortgage guaranty segment GWP

 

 

0.5

 

NM

 

Plus: Other segment GWP

 

 

0.1

 

NM

 

Total GWP

 

$

245.8

 

$

71.8

 

242

%

 


(1) Some amounts may not add due to rounding.

(2) Due to reporting lags by Assured’s ceding companies, PVP for treaty reinsurance installment premiums in the Company’s financial guaranty reinsurance segment is reported on a one-quarter lag.

NM = Not meaningful

 

Income Statement Highlights:

 

Total Revenues

 

Assured’s second quarter 2008 net earned premiums, which includes premiums earned on financial guaranty and mortgage guaranty contracts written in insurance contract form, increased 36% to $51.7 million from second quarter 2007 due to strong growth in both the Company’s financial guaranty direct and financial guaranty reinsurance segments.  Net earned premiums from refundings in the financial guaranty and reinsurance segments totaled $2.1 million ($0.01 per diluted share), a decrease of 67% from $6.4 million ($0.05 per diluted share) in second quarter 2007.  Excluding net earned premiums from refundings, consolidated net earned premiums rose 57% over second quarter 2007.

 

Second quarter 2008 financial guaranty direct net earned premiums were $20.8 million, an increase of 73% over second quarter 2007, reflecting the growth in net par outstanding for contracts written in financial guaranty form as well as the improvement in pricing on new business over the last year.   The financial guaranty direct segment did not have any net earned premiums from refundings in second quarter 2008 or second quarter 2007.

 

3



 

 

 

 

 

 

 

%

 

Revenues(1)

 

2Q-08

 

2Q-07

 

Change

 

Net earned premiums:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Financial guaranty direct

 

$

20.8

 

$

12.0

 

73

%

Financial guaranty reinsurance

 

29.6

 

23.7

 

25

%

Mortgage guaranty

 

1.3

 

2.3

 

(43

)%

Net earned premiums

 

51.7

 

38.0

 

36

%

Net investment income

 

40.2

 

30.9

 

30

%

Realized gains and other settlements on credit derivatives

 

31.8

 

16.2

 

96

%

Incurred losses on credit derivatives (2)

 

(5.6

)

(0.7

)

700

%

Other income

 

0.2

 

 

NM

 

Total revenues included in operating income (3)

 

$

118.3

 

$

84.4

 

40

%

 


NM = not meaningful

(1) Some amounts may not add due to rounding.

(2) Reflects case and portfolio loss and loss adjustment expenses incurred for contracts written in credit derivative form.

(3) Revenues included in operating income.  See “Explanation of Non-GAAP Financial Measures” section of this press release.

 

Second quarter 2008 financial guaranty reinsurance net earned premiums rose to $29.6 million, an increase of 25% over second quarter 2007, due principally to the facultative reinsurance transaction with Ambac Assurance Corp. that closed in December 2007.  Net earned premiums from refundings in the financial guaranty reinsurance segment totaled $2.1 million ($0.01 per diluted share) in second quarter 2008, a decline of 67% from $6.4 million ($0.05 per diluted share) in second quarter 2007.  Excluding refundings, second quarter 2008 financial guaranty reinsurance net earned premiums rose almost 59% over second quarter 2007.

 

Assured’s second quarter 2008 net investment income rose 30% over second quarter 2007 due to an approximately 41% increase in average invested assets compared to the prior year period, which was partially offset by a lower pre-tax book yield on the portfolio.  Pre-tax book yields on the investment portfolio declined to 4.7% in second quarter 2008 from 5.1% in second quarter 2007, consistent with the decline in market interest rates over the past year.

 

Realized gains and other settlements on credit derivatives, which is comprised of the Company’s earned revenues on credit derivatives, losses (recovered)/paid and ceding commission income/(expense) on exposures written in credit derivative form, rose 96% in second quarter 2008 to $31.8 million, reflecting the growth in the Company’s net par outstanding for credit derivatives and the increase in new business pricing over the prior year period.  Second quarter 2008 realized gains and other settlements on credit derivatives included $0.4 million of losses recovered, whereas second quarter 2007 did not have any losses recovered or paid.

 

4



 

The Company’s incurred losses on credit derivatives, which reflect the change in case and portfolio loss reserves established for contracts written in credit derivative form, were $5.6 million in second quarter 2008 compared to $0.7 million in second quarter 2007.  The majority of the increase in incurred losses on credit derivatives was due to Assured’s downgrade of internal ratings on credit derivative contracts for U.S. residential mortgage-backed securities (“RMBS”), principally in the subprime sector.

 

Total Expenses

 

Assured’s second quarter 2008 total expenses were $78.2 million compared to $27.3 million in second quarter 2007, an increase of 186% that was largely due to a $47.9 million increase in pre-tax loss and loss adjustment expenses ($34.9 million after tax or $0.40 per diluted share) from second quarter 2007.  Loss and loss adjustment expenses in second quarter 2008 included $39.7 million pre-tax ($30.6 million after tax or $0.33 per diluted share) of loss and loss adjustment expenses for U.S. RMBS exposures written in financial guaranty contract form that were principally related to Assured’s closed end second lien mortgage transaction, as well as the Company’s recognition of $9.8 million in pre-tax loss and loss adjustment recoveries ($4.5 million after tax or $0.07 per diluted share) in second quarter 2007 that were principally related to the release of the portfolio reserve for a European infrastructure transaction in the financial guaranty reinsurance segment.

 

Analysis of Expenses(1)

($ in millions)

 

Expenses

 

2Q-08

 

2Q-07

 

%
Change

 

Loss and loss adjustment expenses (recoveries)

 

$

38.1

 

$

(9.8

)

NM

 

Profit commission expense

 

1.0

 

0.9

 

11

%

Acquisition costs

 

11.8

 

10.9

 

8

%

Other operating expenses

 

19.7

 

18.8

 

5

%

Interest and related expenses

 

7.5

 

6.5

 

15

%

Total expenses

 

$

78.2

 

$

27.3

 

186

%

 


NM = Not meaningful

(1)  Some amounts may not add due to rounding.

 

Acquisition costs, which consist largely of ceding commissions paid by the financial guaranty reinsurance segment to its ceding customers, rose 8% in second quarter 2008 to $11.8 million from $10.9 million in second quarter 2007.  The increase was due principally to the Ambac facultative reinsurance transaction that closed in fourth quarter 2007.

 

Assured’s second quarter 2008 other operating expenses increased 5% to $19.7 million compared to $18.8 million in second quarter 2007.  The increase was largely due to higher employee headcount in the financial guaranty direct segment.

 

The Company’s second quarter 2008 total provision for income taxes on operating income was an expense of $1.4 million, reflecting the tax provision associated with the Company’s second quarter 2008 loss and loss adjustment expenses for U.S. RMBS, compared to an expense of $10.4 million in second quarter 2007.

 

In second quarter 2008, the Company reported $505.6 million ($5.53 per diluted share) in after-tax unrealized gains on credit derivatives, which included $5.8 million in after-tax other income ($0.06 per diluted share) resulting

 

5



 

from the fair value gain related to Assured Guaranty Corp.’s committed capital securities. The Company’s unrealized gains on credit derivatives reflect the change in the fair value of its financial guaranty contracts written in credit derivative form, which takes into account the change in the Company’s own credit cost based on the price to purchase credit protection on Assured Guaranty Corp., the Company’s financial guaranty direct subsidiary.  The after-tax unrealized gains on credit derivatives of $505.6 million included a $171.4 million after-tax unrealized loss ($1.88 per diluted share) due to the change in the fair value of financial guaranty contracts written in credit derivative form and a $671.2 million after-tax unrealized gain ($7.35 per diluted share) associated with the Company’s evaluation of the change in the fair value of its own credit cost.  The quoted price of credit default swap contracts on Assured Guaranty Corp. was 900 basis points at June 30, 2008, 540 basis points at March 31, 2008 and 180 basis points at December 31, 2007.

 

Balance Sheet Highlights:

 

Assets

 

Assured’s consolidated total assets were $4,527.6 million at June 30, 2008, up 20% from $3,762.9 million at December 31, 2007.  The increase in total assets since December 31, 2007 resulted principally from a $565.5 million increase in the company’s invested assets.  Total invested assets were $3,705.4 million at June 30, 2008, an increase of 18% from $3,139.9 million at December 31, 2007 and resulted from cash flow from operations as well as the Company’s sale of $250.0 million of its common equity to WL Ross & Co. LLC.  Assured’s invested assets as of June 30, 2008 had an average credit rating of AA+ and a duration of 4.2 years and included $634.3 million of obligations of state and local political subdivisions that have been insured by other financial guarantors.  The underlying ratings of these bonds average A+.  The Company’s investment portfolio has only $6.0 million of exposure to mortgages not associated with government-sponsored entities.

 

Liabilities

 

Assured’s total liabilities were $2,285.2 million at June 30, 2008, up 9% from $2,096.4 million at December 31, 2007.  The increase in liabilities was due to a 36% growth in the unearned premium reserves which resulted from the Company’s new business production in first half 2008, that was partially offset by a 45% decline in credit derivative liabilities during the first six months 2008.  The Company’s after-tax net credit derivative liability as of June 30, 2008 was $116.9 million after tax ($1.29 per share) compared to $446.6 million after tax ($5.59 per share) as of December 31, 2007.

 

Reserves for loss and loss adjustment expenses, which are comprised of case and portfolio loss reserves for contracts written in insurance form, totaled $204.0 million at June 30, 2008, up 62% from $125.6 million recorded at December 31, 2007.  The increase was due principally to the addition in the first six months of 2008 of $75.4 million in portfolio and case loss reserves for U.S. RMBS exposures written in insurance contract form.  Total reserves for loss and loss adjustment expenses for U.S. RMBS securities as of June 30, 2008 were $106.6 million, up 242% from $31.2 million at December 31, 2007.  The Company also reported $65.1 million of loss salvage recoverables as of June 30, 2008 that are associated with losses paid on its direct U.S. home equity line of credit (“HELOC”) exposures, an increase from $0 at December 31, 2007.

 

Shareholders’ Equity

 

Assured’s shareholders’ equity at June 30, 2008, was $2,242.4 million, an increase of 35% from $1,666.6 million at December 31, 2007.  This increase was largely due to the unrealized gain on credit derivatives that were recorded in the second quarter of 2008.  Book value per share was $24.66 at June 30, 2008 compared to $20.85 at December 31, 2007, an increase of 18%.  The Company’s

 

6



 

June 30, 2008 book value per share was reduced by $1.29 per share due to after-tax unrealized losses on credit derivatives and a fair value gain on Assured Guaranty Corp.’s committed capital securities.  Book value per share excluding unrealized losses on credit derivatives was $25.95 at June 30, 2008 and $26.43 at December 31, 2007.

 

Shareholders’ Equity

 

 

 

As of

 

 

 

 

 

June 30,

 

December 31,

 

 

 

 

 

2008

 

2007

 

% Change

 

Book value per share outstanding:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Book value

 

$

24.66

 

$

20.85

 

18

%

Plus: Net unearned premium reserve, after tax (1)

 

11.22

 

9.75

 

15

%

Plus: Net unearned revenue on credit derivatives, after tax (2)

 

0.20

 

0.14

 

43

%

Plus: Net present value of estimated future installment premiums in-force, after tax (3)

 

8.81

 

9.00

 

(2

)%

Less: Deferred acquisition costs, after tax

 

2.84

 

2.89

 

(2

)%

Adjusted book value

 

$

42.05

 

$

36.85

 

14

%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Book value, excluding unrealized losses on credit derivatives(4)

 

$

25.95

 

$

26.43

 

(2

)%

Adjusted book value, excluding net unrealized losses on credit derivatives(4)

 

$

43.34

 

$

42.44

 

2

%

 


(1)  Unearned premium reserve less pre-paid reinsurance premiums, after tax.

(2)  Unearned revenue less pre-paid reinsurance premiums on credit derivatives, after tax.

(3)  Due to reporting lags by Assured’s ceding companies, the present value of estimated treaty reinsurance installment premiums in force in the Company’s financial guaranty reinsurance segment is reported on a one-quarter lag.

(4)  Net unrealized losses on credit derivatives consists of the net after-tax fair value components of the Company’s contracts written in credit derivative form, which are included in credit derivative assets or liabilities on the balance sheet, and of Assured Guaranty Corp.’s committed capital securities of $25.7 million at June 30, 2008 and $8.3 million at December 31, 2007, which are included in other assets line on the balance sheet.

 

Adjusted book value, a non-GAAP financial measure, was $42.05 per share at June 30, 2008, an increase of 14% over adjusted book value per share of $36.85 at December 31, 2007.  Adjusted book value per share excluding net mark-to-market losses on credit derivatives and a fair value gain on Assured Guaranty Corp.’s committed capital securities was $43.34 per share at June 30, 2008, an increase of 2% from $42.44 at December 31, 2007.

 

Subsequent Event:  Effective July 25, 2008, Assured Guaranty Re Ltd. (“AG Re”), the Company’s financial guaranty reinsurance subsidiary, commuted a $2.1 billion portfolio of net par outstanding that had been reinsured from XL Financial Assurance Ltd. (“XLFA”).  The commutation resulted in a payment by AG Re of $18.0 million, which included $14.6 million of unearned premium reserves, net of ceding commissions, and $5.2 million of loss and loss adjustment reserves.  The commutation resulted in a net gain to the Company of $1.8 million, which will be recognized in the third quarter ending September 30, 2008.  The commutation included approximately $173 million of the net par outstanding that was on the Company’s closely monitored credits list as of June 30, 2008, including a U.S. public finance transaction and several U.S. RMBS transactions.

 

Financial Guaranty Direct Transaction List: On August 7, 2008 Assured posted in the Investor Information section of the Company’s website at www.assuredguaranty.com a list for Assured’s financial guaranty direct segment’s U.S. and International structured finance transactions totaling $90.6 billion net par outstanding as of June 30, 2008. The transaction list includes the name of the insured credit, the CUSIP (if available), the asset class and the internal rating. The Company intends to update this list on a quarterly basis and may periodically expand disclosures on individual transactions.

 

7



 

Investor Conference Call:  Assured will host a conference call for investors at 7:30 a.m. Eastern Time (8:30 a.m. Atlantic Time) on Friday, August 8, 2008.  The conference call will be available via live and archived webcast in the Investor Information section of the Company’s website at http://www.assuredguaranty.com or by dialing 866-383-8009 (in the U.S.) or 617-597-5342 (International), passcode 64840547.  A replay of the call will be available through September 9, 2008.  To listen to the replay dial: 888-286-8010 (in the U.S.) or 617-801-6888 (International), passcode 20369305.

 

Please refer to Assured’s Second Quarter 2008 Financial Supplement, which is posted on the Company’s website at http://www.assuredguaranty.com/investor/ltd/financial.aspx, for more information on the Company’s individual segment performance, financial guaranty portfolios, investment portfolio and other items.

 

Assured Guaranty Ltd. is a publicly-traded Bermuda-based holding company.  Its operating subsidiaries provide credit enhancement products to the U.S. and international public finance, structured finance and mortgage markets.  More information on the Assured and its subsidiaries can be found at www.assuredguaranty.com.

 

Explanation of Non-GAAP Financial Measures:

 

The following section defines non-GAAP financial measures presented in this press release and describes why they are useful for investors.

 

Present value of financial guaranty and credit derivative gross written premiums or PVP, which is a non-GAAP financial measure, is defined as gross upfront and installment premiums received and the present value of gross estimated future installment premiums on insurance and credit derivative contracts written in the current period, discounted at 6% per year. Management believes that PVP is a useful measure for management, investors and analysts because it permits the evaluation of the value of new business production for Assured by taking into account the value of estimated future installment premiums on all new contracts underwritten in a reporting period, whether in insurance or credit derivative contract form, which GAAP gross premiums written and the net credit derivative premiums received and receivable portion of net realized gains and other settlements on credit derivatives (“credit derivative premiums”) do not measure. Actual future net earned or written premiums and credit derivative revenues may differ from PVP due to factors such as prepayments, amortizations, refundings, contract terminations or defaults that may or may not be influenced by market interest rates, refinancing or refunding activity, prepayment speeds, policy changes or terminations, credit defaults, or other factors that management cannot control or predict. This measure should not be viewed as a substitute for gross written premiums determined in accordance with GAAP.

 

Operating income, which is a non-GAAP financial measure, is defined as net income (loss) excluding: (i) after-tax realized gains (losses) on investments; (ii) after-tax unrealized gains (losses) on credit derivatives, and (iii) the fair value adjustment of the Company’s committed capital securities, other than the Company’s net estimate of after-tax losses incurred on credit derivatives. Management believes that operating income is a useful measure for management, investors and analysts because the presentation of operating income enhances the understanding of Assured’s results of operations by highlighting the underlying profitability of Assured’s business. Realized gains (losses) on investments and unrealized gains (losses) on credit derivatives and the fair value adjustment of the Company’s committed capital securities, other than incurred losses on credit derivatives, are excluded because the amount of these gains (losses) is heavily influenced by, and fluctuates, in part, according to market interest rates, credit spreads and other factors that management cannot control or predict. This measure should not be viewed as a substitute for net income (loss) determined in accordance with GAAP.

 

8



 

Net present value of estimated future installment premiums in force, which is a non-GAAP financial measure, is defined as the present value of estimated future installment premiums from our financial guaranty and credit derivative in-force books of business, net of reinsurance, and discounted at 6%. Management believes that net present value of estimated future installment premiums in-force is a useful measure for management, investors and analysts because it permits an evaluation of the Company’s future estimated financial guaranty and credit derivative installment premiums. Estimated future premiums may change from period to period due to changes in par outstanding, maturity, or other factors that management cannot control or predict that result from market interest rates, refinancing or refunding activity, prepayment speeds, policy changes or terminations, credit defaults, or other factors. There is no comparable GAAP financial measure.

 

Adjusted book value, which is a non-GAAP financial measure, is defined as shareholders’ equity (book value) plus the after-tax value of the unearned premium reserve net of prepaid reinsurance premiums, the after-tax value of unearned premium on credit derivatives net of prepaid reinsurance premiums and the after-tax net present value of estimated future installment premiums in force, less future ceding commissions, discounted at 6%, less after-tax deferred acquisition costs. Management believes that adjusted book value is a useful measure for management, equity analysts and investors because the calculation of adjusted book value permits an evaluation of the net present value of the Company’s in-force premiums and shareholders’ equity. The premiums described above will be earned in future periods, but may differ materially from the estimated amounts used in determining current adjusted book value due to changes in market interest rates, refinancing or refunding activity, prepayment speeds, policy changes or terminations, credit defaults and other factors that management cannot control or predict. This measure should not be viewed as a substitute for book value as reported in accordance with GAAP.

 

For adjusted book value, net present value of estimated future installment premiums in force and PVP, Assured uses 6% as the present value discount rate because it is the approximate taxable equivalent yield on Assured’s investment portfolio for the periods presented.

 

9



 

Assured Guaranty Ltd.

Consolidated Income Statements (1)

 

 

 

Three Months Ended

 

Six Months Ended

 

 

 

June 30,

 

June 30,

 

 

 

2008

 

2007

 

2008

 

2007

 

 

 

(dollars in millions)

 

(dollars in millions)

 

Revenues

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Gross written premiums

 

$

245.8

 

$

71.8

 

$

421.6

 

$

126.9

 

Net written premiums

 

240.7

 

68.5

 

410.4

 

119.9

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Net earned premiums

 

51.7

 

38.0

 

98.5

 

75.0

 

Net investment income

 

40.2

 

30.9

 

76.8

 

62.3

 

Realized gains and other settlements on credit derivatives

 

31.8

 

16.2

 

59.4

 

34.4

 

Incurred losses on credit derivatives

 

(5.6

)

(0.7

)

(8.8

)

(1.3

)

Other income

 

0.2

 

 

0.2

 

 

Total revenues included in operating income

 

$

118.3

 

$

84.4

 

$

226.1

 

$

170.4

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Expenses

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Loss and loss adjustment expenses (recoveries)

 

38.1

 

(9.8

)

93.3

 

(13.8

)

Profit commission expense

 

1.0

 

0.9

 

2.2

 

2.5

 

Acquisition costs

 

11.8

 

10.9

 

23.7

 

21.7

 

Other operating expenses

 

19.7

 

18.8

 

48.3

 

39.5

 

Interest and related expenses

 

7.5

 

6.5

 

14.1

 

13.1

 

Total expenses

 

$

78.2

 

$

27.3

 

$

181.6

 

$

63.1

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Operating income before provision (benefit) for income taxes

 

40.1

 

57.1

 

44.5

 

107.4

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Total provision (benefit) for income taxes

 

1.4

 

10.4

 

(0.5

)

14.6

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Operating income (2)

 

$

38.7

 

$

46.7

 

$

45.0

 

$

92.8

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

After-tax realized gains (losses) on investments

 

0.9

 

(1.3

)

1.3

 

(1.5

)

After-tax unrealized gains (losses) on credit derivatives(3)

 

505.6

 

(12.7

)

329.8

 

(19.6

)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Net income

 

$

545.2

 

$

32.8

 

$

376.0

 

$

71.8

 

 


(1)

 

Some amounts may not add due to rounding.

 

 

 

(2)

 

Net income (loss) excluding i) after-tax realized gains (losses) on investments and ii) after-tax unrealized gains (losses) on credit derivatives and the fair value adjustment of the Company’s committed capital securities.

 

 

 

(3)

 

The quarter and six months ended June 30, 2008 included a fair value after-tax gain of $5.8 million, or $0.06 per diluted share, and $11.3 million, or $0.13 per diluted share, respectively, related to Assured Guaranty Corp.'s committed capital securities.

 

 

10



 

Assured Guaranty Ltd.

Consolidated Balance Sheets *

 

 

 

As of:

 

 

 

June 30,

 

December 31,

 

 

 

2008

 

2007

 

 

 

(dollars in millions)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Assets

 

 

 

 

 

Fixed maturity securities, at fair value

 

$

3,168.0

 

$

2,587.0

 

Short-term investments, at cost which approximates fair value

 

537.5

 

552.9

 

Total investments

 

3,705.4

 

3,139.9

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Cash and cash equivalents

 

10.1

 

8.0

 

Accrued investment income

 

32.0

 

26.5

 

Deferred acquisition costs

 

284.6

 

259.3

 

Prepaid reinsurance premiums

 

20.7

 

13.5

 

Reinsurance recoverable on ceded losses

 

7.3

 

8.8

 

Premiums receivable

 

25.8

 

27.8

 

Goodwill

 

85.4

 

85.4

 

Credit derivative assets

 

176.4

 

5.5

 

Deferred tax asset

 

32.5

 

147.6

 

Salvage recoverable

 

73.1

 

8.5

 

Other assets

 

74.3

 

32.0

 

Total assets

 

$

4,527.6

 

$

3,762.9

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Liabilities and shareholders’ equity Liabilities

 

 

 

 

 

Unearned premium reserves

 

$

1,207.4

 

$

887.2

 

Reserves for losses and loss adjustment expenses

 

204.0

 

125.6

 

Profit commissions payable

 

10.7

 

22.3

 

Reinsurance balances payable

 

7.6

 

3.3

 

Current income taxes payable

 

 

0.6

 

Funds held by Company under reinsurance contracts

 

29.2

 

25.4

 

Credit derivative liabilities

 

342.4

 

623.1

 

Senior Notes

 

197.4

 

197.4

 

Series A Enhanced Junior Subordinated Debentures

 

149.8

 

149.7

 

Other liabilities

 

136.7

 

61.8

 

Total liabilities

 

2,285.2

 

2,096.4

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Shareholders’ equity

 

 

 

 

 

Common stock

 

0.9

 

0.8

 

Additional paid-in capital

 

1,279.2

 

1,023.9

 

Retained earnings

 

953.5

 

585.3

 

Accumulated other comprehensive income

 

8.8

 

56.6

 

Total shareholders’ equity

 

2,242.4

 

1,666.6

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Total liabilities and shareholders’ equity

 

$

4,527.6

 

$

3,762.9

 

 


* Some amounts may not add due to rounding.

 

11



 

Cautionary Statement Regarding Forward-Looking Statements:

 

Any forward-looking statements made in this press release reflect the Company’s current views with respect to future events and financial performance and are made pursuant to the safe harbor provisions of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995.  Such statements involve risks and uncertainties that may cause actual results to differ materially from those set forth in these statements.  For example, the Company’s forward-looking statements, including its calculations of adjusted book value, present value of financial guaranty and credit derivative gross written premiums (“PVP”), net present value of estimated future installment premiums in force, total estimated net future premium earnings, and statements regarding losses, pricing, ratings, capital adequacy and the growth of the direct business could be affected by many events.  These events include a significant reduction in the amount of reinsurance ceded by one or more of our principal ceding companies, rating agency action such as a ratings downgrade, difficulties with the execution of the Company’s business strategy, contract cancellations, developments or volatility in the world’s financial and capital markets, more severe or frequent losses associated with products affecting the adequacy of the Company’s loss reserves, changes in regulation or tax laws, governmental actions, natural catastrophes, the Company’s dependence on customers, decreased demand or increased competition, loss of key personnel, technological developments, the effects of mergers, acquisitions and divestitures, changes in accounting policies or practices, changes in general economic conditions, other risks and uncertainties that have not been identified at this time, management’s response to these factors, and other risk factors identified in the Company’s filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission.  Readers are cautioned not to place undue reliance on these forward-looking statements which are made as of August 7, 2008. Assured does not undertake to publicly update or revise any forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise.

 

Contact Information:

 

Equity Investors:

Sabra Purtill, CFA

Managing Director, Global Communications and Investor Relations

212-408-6044

441-299-9375

spurtill@assuredguaranty.com

 

Ross Aron

Associate, Investor Relations

212-261-5509

raron@assuredguaranty.com

 

Fixed Income Investors:

Michael Walker

Director, Fixed Income Investor Relations

212-261-5575

mwalker@assuredguaranty.com

 

Jason Falzon

Vice President, Investor Relations

212-408-6036

jfalzon@assuredguaranty.com

 

Media:

Ashweeta Durani

Vice President, Global Communications

212-408-6042

adurani@assuredguaranty.com

 

12


EX-99.2 3 a08-20687_1ex99d2.htm EX-99.2

Exhibit 99.2

 

 

Assured Guaranty Ltd.

Financial Supplement

Second Quarter 2008

June 30, 2008

 

Table of Contents

 

Page

Assured Guaranty Ltd.

 

 

Selected Financial Highlights

 

1

Consolidated Income Statements

 

2

Consolidated Balance Sheets

 

3

Segment Consolidation

 

4-5

Financial Guaranty Direct Segment

 

6-7

Financial Guaranty Reinsurance Segment

 

8-9

Mortgage Guaranty Segment

 

10

Other Segment

 

11

Loss and LAE Reserves and Analysis of Net Claims Paid

 

12

Investment Portfolio

 

13

Estimated Net Exposure Amortization

 

14

Estimated Net Unearned Premium Amortization and Estimated Future Installment Premiums

 

15

Financial Guaranty Profile

 

16-21

Pooled Corporate Profile

 

22

Residential Mortgage-Backed Securities Profile

 

23-28

Credit Derivative Exposures Profile

 

29

Unrealized Gains (Losses) on Credit Derivatives

 

30

CDOs of ABS Profile

 

31

Non-Investment Grade Exposures

 

32

Closely Monitored Credits

 

33

Largest Exposures by Sector

 

34-37

Consolidated Capital and Claims Paying Resources

 

38

Summary Financial and Statistical Data

 

39

Appendix

 

40

Glossary

 

 

Endnotes Related to Non-GAAP Financial Measures

 

 

 

This supplement should be read in conjunction with documents filed by Assured Guaranty Ltd. (“Assured” or “the Company”) with the Securities and Exchange Commission, including our 10-Q's dated March 31, 2007, June 30, 2007, September 30, 2007 and March 31, 2008 and our 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2007.

 

Some amounts in this Financial Supplement may not add due to rounding.

 

Cautionary Statement Regarding Forward-Looking Statements:

 

Any forward-looking statements made in this supplement reflect the Company’s current views with respect to future events and financial performance and are made pursuant to the safe harbor provisions of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995.  Such statements involve risks and uncertainties that may cause actual results to differ materially from those set forth in these statements.  For example, the Company’s forward looking statements, including its calculations of adjusted book value, present value of insurance and credit derivative gross written premiums (“PVP”), net present value of estimated future installment premiums in force, total estimated net future premium earnings, and statements regarding losses, pricing, ratings, capital adequacy and the growth of the direct business could be affected by many events.  These events include a significant reduction in the amount of reinsurance ceded by one or more of our principal ceding companies, rating agency action such as a ratings downgrade, difficulties with the execution of the Company’s business strategy, contract cancellations, developments or volatility in the world’s financial and capital markets, more severe or frequent losses associated with products affecting the adequacy of the Company’s loss reserves, changes in regulation or tax laws, governmental actions, natural catastrophes, the Company’s dependence on customers, decreased demand or increased competition, loss of key personnel, technological developments, the effects of mergers, acquisitions and divestitures, changes in accounting policies or practices, changes in general economic conditions, other risks and uncertainties that have not been identified at this time, management’s response to these factors, and other risk factors identified in the Company’s filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission.  Readers are cautioned not to place undue reliance on these forward looking statements, which speak only as of the dates on which they are made.  The Company undertakes no obligation to publicly update or revise any forward looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise.

 



 

Assured Guaranty Ltd.

Selected Financial Highlights

(dollars and shares in millions, except per share amounts)

 

 

 

Quarter Ended

 

% Change

 

Six Months Ended

 

% Change

 

 

 

June 30,

 

versus

 

June 30,

 

versus

 

 

 

2008

 

2007

 

2Q-07

 

2008

 

2007

 

YTD 2007

 

Gross written premiums (GWP) analysis:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Present value of financial guaranty and credit derivative GWP (PVP) (a)

 

$

278.9

 

$

125.3

 

123

%

$

555.5

 

$

232.1

 

139

%

Less: PVP of credit derivatives

 

52.3

 

39.2

 

33

%

145.8

 

79.5

 

83

%

PVP of financial guaranty GWP

 

226.6

 

86.1

 

163

%

409.7

 

152.6

 

168

%

Less: Financial guaranty installment premium PVP

 

14.8

 

33.7

 

(56

)%

50.9

 

70.6

 

(28

)%

Total: Financial guaranty upfront GWP

 

211.8

 

52.4

 

304

%

358.8

 

82.0

 

338

%

Plus: Financial guaranty installment GWP

 

34.0

 

18.7

 

82

%

58.8

 

40.0

 

47

%

Total financial guaranty GWP

 

245.8

 

71.1

 

246

%

417.6

 

122.0

 

242

%

Plus: Mortgage guaranty segment GWP

 

 

0.5

 

NM

 

0.5

 

1.5

 

(67

)%

Plus: Other segment GWP

 

 

0.1

 

NM

 

3.5

 

3.4

 

3

%

Total GWP per income statement

 

$

245.8

 

$

71.8

 

242

%

$

421.6

 

$

126.9

 

232

%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Net income

 

$

545.2

 

$

32.8

 

1562

%

$

376.0

 

$

71.8

 

424

%

Less: After-tax realized gains (losses) on investments

 

0.9

 

(1.3

)

NM

 

1.3

 

(1.5

)

NM

 

Less: After-tax unrealized gains (losses) on credit derivatives (1)

 

501.5

 

(13.1

)

NM

 

323.5

 

(20.4

)

NM

 

Plus: After-tax incurred losses on credit derivatives (2)

 

(4.1

)

(0.5

)

720

%

(6.2

)

(0.8

)

675

%

Operating income (b)

 

$

38.7

 

$

46.7

 

(17

)%

$

45.0

 

$

92.8

 

(52

)%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Book value

 

$

2,242.4

 

$

1,694.8

 

32

%

 

 

 

 

 

 

Plus: Net unearned premium reserve, after tax (3)

 

1,020.4

 

585.5

 

74

%

 

 

 

 

 

 

Plus: Net unearned revenue on credit derivatives, after tax (4)

 

18.1

 

7.5

 

141

%

 

 

 

 

 

 

Plus: Net present value of estimated future installment premiums in-force, after tax (d)

 

800.7

 

474.9

 

69

%

 

 

 

 

 

 

Less: Deferred acquisition costs (DAC), after tax

 

258.1

 

197.5

 

31

%

 

 

 

 

 

 

Adjusted book value (c)

 

$

3,823.5

 

$

2,565.3

 

49

%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

ROE, excluding AOCI

 

118.7

%

7.9

%

 

 

39.1

%

8.7

 

 

Operating ROE, excluding AOCI and after-tax unrealized (losses) gains on credit derivatives (b)

 

7.0

%

11.3

%

 

 

4.1

%

11.4

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Per diluted share:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Net income

 

$

5.97

 

$

0.47

 

1170

%

$

4.35

 

$

1.04

 

318

%

Less: After-tax realized gains (losses) on investments

 

0.01

 

(0.02

)

NM

 

0.01

 

(0.02

)

NM

 

Less: After-tax unrealized gains (losses) on credit derivatives (1)

 

5.49

 

(0.19

)

NM

 

3.75

 

(0.30

)

NM

 

Plus: After-tax incurred losses on credit derivatives (2)

 

(0.04

)

(0.01

)

300

%

(0.07

)

(0.01

)

600

%

Operating income (b)

 

$

0.42

 

$

0.68

 

(38

)%

$

0.52

 

$

1.35

 

(61

)%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Book value

 

$

24.66

 

$

24.98

 

(1

)%

 

 

 

 

 

 

Plus: Net unearned premium reserve, after tax (3)

 

11.22

 

8.63

 

30

%

 

 

 

 

 

 

Plus: Net unearned revenue on credit derivatives, after tax (4)

 

0.20

 

0.11

 

82

%

 

 

 

 

 

 

Plus: Net present value of estimated future installment premiums in-force, after tax (d)

 

8.81

 

7.00

 

26

%

 

 

 

 

 

 

Less: DAC, after tax

 

2.84

 

2.91

 

(2

)%

 

 

 

 

 

 

Adjusted book value (c)

 

$

42.05

 

$

37.82

 

11

%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Book value, excluding net unrealized mark-to-market gains (losses) on derivatives (5)

 

$

25.95

 

$

24.78

 

5

%

 

 

 

 

 

 

Adjusted book value, excluding net unrealized mark-to-market gains (losses) on derivatives (5)

 

$

43.34

 

$

37.61

 

15

%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Additional information:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Shares outstanding at the end of period (6)

 

90.9

 

67.8

 

34

%

 

 

 

 

 

 

Weighted average basic shares outstanding

 

89.9

 

67.8

 

33

%

85.0

 

67.7

 

26

%

Weighted average diluted shares outstanding

 

91.4

 

69.2

 

32

%

86.3

 

69.0

 

25

%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Consolidated net debt service outstanding

 

$

356,959

 

$

215,125

 

66

%

 

 

 

 

 

 

Consolidated net par outstanding

 

230,402

 

143,155

 

61

%

 

 

 

 

 

 

Consolidated claims-paying resources

 

5,206

 

3,557

 

46

%

 

 

 

 

 

 

Gross par written

 

18,088

 

13,310

 

36

%

38,083

 

23,672

 

61

%

 


(1)     The quarter and six months ended June 30, 2008 included a fair value after-tax gain of $5.8 million, or $0.06 per diluted share, and $11.3 million, or $0.13 per diluted share, respectively, related to Assured Guaranty Corp.’s committed capital securities.

(2)     Company’s estimate of incurred losses included in the mark to market unrealized loss on credit derivatives.

(3)     Unearned premium reserve (UPR) less pre-paid reinsurance premiums, after tax.

(4)     Unearned revenue less pre-paid reinsurance premiums on credit derivatives, after tax.

(5)      Represents a fair value component of the Company’s CDS contracts, which are included in credit derivative asset or liability line on the balance sheet, and committed capital securities, which are included in other assets line on the balance sheet.

(6)      6/30/08 shares outstanding excludes 0.7 million of nonvested restricted stock and 6/30/07 shares outstanding excludes 1.2 million of nonvested restricted stock, which is considered not issued under FAS 123R.

 

Note: Please refer to endnotes for explanation of non-GAAP financial measures [PVP (a), operating income and operating ROE (b), adjusted book value (c), and net present value of estimated future installment premiums in force (d)].

 

NM = Not meaningful

 

1



 

Assured Guaranty Ltd.

Consolidated Income Statements

(dollars and shares in millions, except per share amounts)

 

 

 

Quarter Ended

 

% Change

 

Six Months Ended

 

% Change

 

 

 

June 30,

 

versus

 

June 30,

 

versus

 

 

 

2008

 

2007

 

2Q-07

 

2008

 

2007

 

YTD 2007

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Revenues

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Gross written premiums

 

$

245.8

 

$

71.8

 

242

%

$

421.6

 

$

126.9

 

232

%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Net written premiums

 

240.7

 

68.5

 

251

%

410.4

 

119.9

 

242

%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Net earned premiums

 

51.7

 

38.0

 

36

%

98.5

 

75.0

 

31

%

Net investment income

 

40.2

 

30.9

 

30

%

76.8

 

62.3

 

23

%

Realized gains and other settlements on credit derivatives

 

31.8

 

16.2

 

96

%

59.4

 

34.4

 

73

%

Incurred losses on credit derivatives

 

(5.6

)

(0.7

)

700

%

(8.8

)

(1.3

)

577

%

Other income

 

0.2

 

 

NM

 

0.2

 

 

NM

 

Total revenues included in operating income

 

118.3

 

84.4

 

40

%

226.1

 

170.4

 

33

%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Expenses

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Loss and loss adjustment expenses (recoveries)

 

38.1

 

(9.8

)

NM

 

93.3

 

(13.8

)

NM

 

Profit commission expense

 

1.0

 

0.9

 

11

%

2.2

 

2.5

 

(12

)%

Acquisition costs

 

11.8

 

10.9

 

8

%

23.7

 

21.7

 

9

%

Other operating expenses

 

19.7

 

18.8

 

5

%

48.3

 

39.5

 

22

%

Interest and related expenses

 

7.5

 

6.5

 

15

%

14.1

 

13.1

 

8

%

Total expenses

 

78.2

 

27.3

 

186

%

181.6

 

63.1

 

188

%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Operating income before provision (benefit) for income taxes

 

40.1

 

57.1

 

(30

)%

44.5

 

107.4

 

(59

)%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Total provision (benefit) for income taxes

 

1.4

 

10.4

 

(87

)%

(0.5

)

14.6

 

NM

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Operating income (b)

 

38.7

 

46.7

 

(17

)%

45.0

 

92.8

 

(52

)%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Plus: After-tax realized gains (losses) on investments

 

0.9

 

(1.3

)

NM

 

1.3

 

(1.5

)

NM

 

Plus: After-tax unrealized gains (losses) on credit derivatives (1)

 

505.6

 

(12.7

)

NM

 

329.8

 

(19.6

)

NM

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Net income

 

$

545.2

 

$

32.8

 

1562

%

$

376.0

 

$

71.8

 

424

%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Per diluted share

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Operating income (b)

 

$

0.42

 

$

0.68

 

(38

)%

$

0.52

 

$

1.35

 

(61

)%

Plus: After-tax realized gains (losses) on investments

 

0.01

 

(0.02

)

NM

 

0.01

 

(0.02

)

NM

 

Plus: After-tax unrealized gains (losses) on credit derivatives (1)

 

5.53

 

(0.18

)

NM

 

3.82

 

(0.28

)

NM

 

Net income

 

$

5.97

 

$

0.47

 

1170

%

$

4.35

 

$

1.04

 

318

%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Effect of refundings

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Earned premiums from refundings

 

$

2.1

 

$

6.4

 

(67

)%

$

4.5

 

$

11.3

 

(60

)%

Operating income effect

 

$

1.2

 

$

3.2

 

(63

)%

$

2.4

 

$

5.2

 

(54

)%

Operating income per diluted share effect

 

$

0.01

 

$

0.05

 

(80

)%

$

0.03

 

$

0.08

 

(63

)%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Weighted average shares outstanding

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Basic shares outstanding

 

89.9

 

67.8

 

33

%

85.0

 

67.7

 

26

%

Plus: effect of options

 

0.5

 

0.7

 

(29

)%

0.5

 

0.7

 

(29

)%

Plus: effect of restricted stock awards and units

 

1.0

 

0.7

 

43

%

0.9

 

0.6

 

50

%

Diluted shares outstanding

 

91.4

 

69.2

 

32

%

86.3

 

69.0

 

25

%

 


(1)                  The quarter and six months ended June 30, 2008 included a fair value after-tax gain of $5.8 million, or $0.06 per diluted share, and $11.3 million, or $0.13 per diluted share, respectively, related to Assured Guaranty Corp.’s committed capital securities.

 

Note: Please refer to endnotes for explanation of non-GAAP financial measures [operating income (b)].

 

NM = Not meaningful

 

2



 

Assured Guaranty Ltd.

Consolidated Balance Sheets

(dollars in millions)

 

 

 

As of :

 

 

 

June 30,

 

December 31,

 

 

 

2008

 

2007

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Assets

 

 

 

 

 

Fixed maturity securities, at fair value

 

$

3,168.0

 

$

2,587.0

 

Short-term investments, at cost which approximates fair value

 

537.5

 

552.9

 

Total investments

 

3,705.4

 

3,139.9

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Cash and cash equivalents

 

10.1

 

8.0

 

Accrued investment income

 

32.0

 

26.5

 

Deferred acquisition costs

 

284.6

 

259.3

 

Prepaid reinsurance premiums

 

20.7

 

13.5

 

Reinsurance recoverable on ceded losses

 

7.3

 

8.8

 

Premiums receivable

 

25.8

 

27.8

 

Goodwill

 

85.4

 

85.4

 

Credit derivative assets

 

176.4

 

5.5

 

Deferred tax asset

 

32.5

 

147.6

 

Salvage recoverable

 

73.1

 

8.5

 

Other assets

 

74.3

 

32.0

 

Total assets

 

$

4,527.6

 

$

3,762.9

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Liabilities and shareholders’ equity

 

 

 

 

 

Liabilities

 

 

 

 

 

Unearned premium reserves

 

$

1,207.4

 

$

887.2

 

Reserves for losses and loss adjustment expenses

 

204.0

 

125.6

 

Profit commissions payable

 

10.7

 

22.3

 

Reinsurance balances payable

 

7.6

 

3.3

 

Current income taxes payable

 

 

0.6

 

Funds held by Company under reinsurance contracts

 

29.2

 

25.4

 

Credit derivative liabilities

 

342.4

 

623.1

 

Senior notes

 

197.4

 

197.4

 

Series A Enhanced Junior Subordinated Debentures

 

149.8

 

149.7

 

Other liabilities

 

136.7

 

61.8

 

Total liabilities

 

2,285.2

 

2,096.4

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Shareholders’ equity

 

 

 

 

 

Common stock

 

0.9

 

0.8

 

Additional paid-in capital

 

1,279.2

 

1,023.9

 

Retained earnings

 

953.5

 

585.3

 

Accumulated other comprehensive income

 

8.8

 

56.6

 

Total shareholders’ equity

 

2,242.4

 

1,666.6

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Total liabilities and shareholders’ equity

 

$

4,527.6

 

$

3,762.9

 

 

3



 

Assured Guaranty Ltd.

Segment Consolidation (page 1 of 2)

(dollars in millions)

 

 

 

Quarter Ended June 30, 2008

 

 

 

Financial

 

Financial

 

 

 

Total

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Guaranty

 

Guaranty

 

Mortgage

 

Financial

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Direct

 

Reinsurance(1)

 

Guaranty

 

Guaranty

 

Other

 

Total

 

Present value of financial guaranty and credit derivative gross written premiums (PVP): (a)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

U.S. public finance

 

$

183.2

 

$

26.2

 

$

 

$

209.4

 

 

 

$

209.4

 

U.S. structured finance

 

51.9

 

7.0

 

 

58.9

 

 

 

58.9

 

International

 

6.3

 

4.2

 

 

10.6

 

 

 

10.6

 

Total PVP

 

$

241.4

 

$

37.5

 

$

 

$

278.9

 

 

 

$

278.9

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Income statement:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Gross written premiums

 

$

197.8

 

$

48.0

 

$

 

$

245.8

 

$

 

$

245.8

 

Net written premiums

 

192.6

 

48.0

 

 

240.7

 

 

240.7

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Net earned premiums

 

20.8

 

29.6

 

1.3

 

51.7

 

 

51.7

 

Realized gains and other settlements on credit derivatives:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Net credit derivative premiums earned

 

30.6

 

0.8

 

 

31.5

 

 

31.5

 

Net credit derivative recoveries (losses)

 

 

 

 

 

0.4

 

0.4

 

Ceding commissions income (expense), net

 

0.2

 

(0.3

)

 

(0.1

)

 

(0.1

)

Total realized gains and other settlements on credit derivatives

 

30.9

 

0.6

 

 

31.4

 

0.4

 

31.8

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Total revenues

 

51.7

 

30.2

 

1.3

 

83.1

 

0.4

 

83.5

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Loss and loss adjustment expenses (recoveries)

 

28.2

 

11.3

 

0.1

 

39.6

 

(1.5

)

38.1

 

Incurred losses on credit derivatives

 

5.6

 

 

 

5.6

 

 

5.6

 

Total loss and loss adjustment expenses (recoveries)

 

33.8

 

11.3

 

0.1

 

45.2

 

(1.5

)

43.7

 

Profit commission expense

 

 

0.9

 

0.1

 

1.0

 

 

1.0

 

Acquisition costs

 

3.1

 

8.6

 

0.1

 

11.8

 

 

11.8

 

Operating expenses

 

15.2

 

4.0

 

0.5

 

19.7

 

 

19.7

 

Total underwriting expenses

 

$

52.1

 

$

24.8

 

$

0.8

 

$

77.7

 

$

(1.5

)

$

76.2

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Underwriting (loss) gain

 

$

(0.4

)

$

5.4

 

$

0.5

 

$

5.4

 

$

1.9

 

$

7.3

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Loss and loss adjustment expense ratio (e)

 

65.7

%

37.1

%

7.9

%

54.3

%

 

 

52.1

%

Expense ratio (e)

 

35.1

%

45.2

%

55.1

%

39.1

%

 

 

39.1

%

Combined ratio (e)

 

100.8

%

82.3

%

63.0

%

93.4

%

 

 

91.2

%

 

 

 

Quarter Ended June 30, 2007

 

 

 

Financial

 

Financial

 

 

 

Total

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Guaranty

 

Guaranty

 

Mortgage

 

Financial

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Direct

 

Reinsurance(1)

 

Guaranty

 

Guaranty

 

Other

 

Total

 

PVP:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

U.S. public finance

 

$

15.4

 

$

14.1

 

$

 

$

29.5

 

 

 

$

29.5

 

U.S. structured finance

 

49.9

 

2.5

 

 

52.4

 

 

 

52.4

 

International

 

38.8

 

4.7

 

 

43.5

 

 

 

43.5

 

Total PVP

 

$

104.0

 

$

21.3

 

$

 

$

125.3

 

 

 

$

125.3

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Income statement:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Gross written premiums

 

$

45.6

 

$

25.5

 

$

0.5

 

$

71.7

 

$

0.1

 

$

71.8

 

Net written premiums

 

42.6

 

25.5

 

0.5

 

68.5

 

 

68.5

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Net earned premiums

 

12.0

 

23.7

 

2.3

 

38.0

 

 

38.0

 

Realized gains and other settlements on credit derivatives:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Net credit derivative premiums earned

 

16.3

 

 

 

16.3

 

 

16.3

 

Net credit derivative recoveries (losses)

 

0.0

 

 

 

0.0

 

 

0.0

 

Ceding commissions income (expense), net

 

(0.1

)

 

 

(0.1

)

 

(0.1

)

Total realized gains and other settlements on credit derivatives

 

16.2

 

 

 

16.2

 

 

16.2

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Total revenues

 

28.2

 

23.7

 

2.3

 

54.2

 

 

54.2

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Loss and loss adjustment expenses (recoveries)

 

1.0

 

(11.0

)

0.1

 

(9.8

)

 

(9.8

)

Incurred losses on credit derivatives

 

0.7

 

 

 

0.7

 

 

0.7

 

Total loss and loss adjustment expenses (recoveries)

 

1.7

 

(11.0

)

0.1

 

(9.1

)

 

(9.1

)

Profit commission expense

 

 

0.5

 

0.4

 

0.9

 

 

0.9

 

Acquisition costs

 

2.2

 

8.6

 

 

10.9

 

 

10.9

 

Operating expenses

 

14.5

 

3.9

 

0.5

 

18.8

 

 

18.8

 

Total underwriting expenses

 

$

18.5

 

$

2.0

 

$

1.0

 

$

21.5

 

$

 

$

21.5

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Underwriting gain

 

$

9.8

 

$

21.7

 

$

1.3

 

$

32.7

 

$

 

$

32.7

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Loss and loss adjustment expense ratio (e)

 

6.0

%

(46.4

)%

4.3

%

(16.8

)%

 

 

(16.8

)%

Expense ratio (e)

 

59.4

%

54.9

%

39.1

%

56.5

%

 

 

56.5

%

Combined ratio (e)

 

65.4

%

8.5

%

43.4

%

39.7

%

 

 

39.7

%

 


(1)   Due to the timing of receiving reports prepared by Assured’s ceding companies, PVP for installment premiums, par written and par outstanding on treaty business in the Company’s Financial Guaranty Reinsurance segment are reported on a one-quarter lag.

 

Note: Please refer to endnotes for explanation of non-GAAP financial measures [PVP (a) and loss and loss adjustment expense ratio, expense ratio and combined ratio (e)].

 

4



 

Assured Guaranty Ltd.

Segment Consolidation (2 of 2)

(dollars in millions)

 

 

 

Six Months Ended June 30, 2008

 

 

 

Financial

 

Financial

 

 

 

Total

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Guaranty

 

Guaranty

 

Mortgage

 

Financial

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Direct

 

Reinsurance(1)

 

Guaranty

 

Guaranty

 

Other

 

Total

 

Present value of financial guaranty and credit derivative gross written premiums (PVP): (a)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

U.S. public finance

 

$

306.6

 

$

43.8

 

$

 

$

350.4

 

 

 

$

350.4

 

U.S. structured finance

 

123.2

 

10.0

 

 

133.2

 

 

 

133.2

 

International

 

66.8

 

5.1

 

 

71.9

 

 

 

71.9

 

Total PVP

 

$

496.6

 

$

58.9

 

$

 

$

555.5

 

 

 

$

555.5

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Income statement:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Gross written premiums

 

$

344.2

 

$

73.4

 

$

0.5

 

$

418.1

 

$

3.5

 

$

421.6

 

Net written premiums

 

336.7

 

73.2

 

0.5

 

410.4

 

 

410.4

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Net earned premiums

 

38.1

 

57.4

 

3.1

 

98.5

 

 

98.5

 

Realized gains and other settlements on credit derivatives:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Net credit derivative premiums earned

 

58.0

 

1.3

 

 

59.3

 

 

59.3

 

Net credit derivative recoveries (losses)

 

 

 

 

 

0.4

 

0.4

 

Ceding commissions income (expense), net

 

0.1

 

(0.4

)

 

(0.3

)

 

(0.3

)

Total realized gains and other settlements on credit derivatives

 

58.1

 

0.9

 

 

59.0

 

0.4

 

59.4

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Total revenues

 

96.2

 

58.3

 

3.1

 

157.5

 

0.4

 

157.9

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Loss and loss adjustment expenses (recoveries)

 

64.1

 

30.5

 

0.1

 

94.7

 

(1.5

)

93.3

 

Incurred losses on credit derivatives

 

8.8

 

 

 

8.8

 

 

8.8

 

Total loss and loss adjustment expenses (recoveries)

 

72.9

 

30.5

 

0.1

 

103.5

 

(1.5

)

102.1

 

Profit commission expense

 

 

2.0

 

0.2

 

2.2

 

 

2.2

 

Acquisition costs

 

6.1

 

17.4

 

0.2

 

23.7

 

 

23.7

 

Operating expenses

 

36.5

 

10.4

 

1.4

 

48.3

 

 

48.3

 

Total underwriting expenses

 

$

115.5

 

$

60.3

 

$

1.9

 

$

177.6

 

$

(1.5

)

$

176.2

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Underwriting (loss) gain

 

$

(19.3

)

$

(2.0

)

$

1.2

 

$

(20.0

)

$

1.9

 

$

(18.1

)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Loss and loss adjustment expense ratio (e)

 

75.9

%

51.9

%

3.2

%

65.6

%

 

 

64.5

%

Expense ratio (e)

 

44.2

%

51.5

%

57.5

%

47.2

%

 

 

47.2

%

Combined ratio (e)

 

120.1

%

103.4

%

60.7

%

112.8

%

 

 

111.7

%

 

 

 

Six Months Ended June 30, 2007

 

 

 

Financial

 

Financial

 

 

 

Total

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Guaranty

 

Guaranty

 

Mortgage

 

Financial

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Direct

 

Reinsurance(1)

 

Guaranty

 

Guaranty

 

Other

 

Total

 

PVP:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

U.S. public finance

 

$

24.2

 

$

18.8

 

$

 

$

43.1

 

 

 

$

43.1

 

U.S. structured finance

 

94.8

 

6.4

 

 

101.3

 

 

 

101.3

 

International

 

68.7

 

19.1

 

 

87.8

 

 

 

87.8

 

Total PVP

 

$

187.7

 

$

44.4

 

$

 

$

232.1

 

 

 

$

232.1

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Income statement:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Gross written premiums

 

$

77.8

 

$

44.2

 

$

1.5

 

$

123.5

 

$

3.4

 

$

126.9

 

Net written premiums

 

74.4

 

44.0

 

1.5

 

119.9

 

 

119.9

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Net earned premiums

 

24.1

 

45.6

 

5.4

 

75.0

 

 

75.0

 

Realized gains and other settlements on credit derivatives:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Net credit derivative premiums earned

 

33.1

 

 

 

33.1

 

 

33.1

 

Net credit derivative recoveries (losses)

 

0.0

 

 

 

0.0

 

1.3

 

1.3

 

Ceding commissions income (expense), net

 

(0.0

)

 

 

(0.0

)

 

(0.0

)

Total realized gains and other settlements on credit derivatives

 

33.1

 

 

 

33.1

 

1.3

 

34.4

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Total revenues

 

57.2

 

45.6

 

5.4

 

108.1

 

1.3

 

109.4

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Loss and loss adjustment expenses (recoveries)

 

1.7

 

(15.8

)

0.2

 

(13.8

)

 

(13.8

)

Incurred losses on credit derivatives

 

1.3

 

 

 

1.3

 

 

1.3

 

Total loss and loss adjustment expenses (recoveries)

 

2.9

 

(15.8

)

0.2

 

(12.5

)

 

(12.5

)

Profit commission expense

 

 

1.4

 

1.1

 

2.5

 

 

2.5

 

Acquisition costs

 

5.2

 

16.3

 

0.2

 

21.7

 

 

21.7

 

Operating expenses

 

30.4

 

8.3

 

0.8

 

39.5

 

 

39.5

 

Total underwriting expenses

 

$

38.6

 

$

10.3

 

$

2.3

 

$

51.2

 

$

 

$

51.2

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Underwriting gain

 

$

18.5

 

$

35.3

 

$

3.1

 

$

56.9

 

$

1.3

 

$

58.1

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Loss and loss adjustment expense ratio (e)

 

5.1

%

(34.6

)%

3.7

%

(11.6

)%

 

 

(12.8

)%

Expense ratio (e)

 

62.5

%

57.1

%

38.3

%

59.0

%

 

 

59.0

%

Combined ratio (e)

 

67.6

%

22.5

%

42.0

%

47.4

%

 

 

46.2

%

 


(1)          Due to the timing of receiving reports prepared by Assured’s ceding companies, PVP for installment premiums, par written and par outstanding on treaty business in the Company’s Financial Guaranty Reinsurance segment are reported on a one-quarter lag.

 

Note: Please refer to endnotes for explanation of non-GAAP financial measures [PVP (a) and loss and loss adjustment expense ratio, expense ratio and combined ratio (e)].

 

5



 

Assured Guaranty Ltd.

Financial Guaranty Direct Segment (1 of 2)

(dollars in millions)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Six Months

 

Six Months

 

 

 

1Q-07

 

2Q-07

 

3Q-07

 

4Q-07

 

1Q-08

 

2Q-08

 

2007

 

2008

 

Present value of financial guaranty and credit derivative GWP (PVP) (a)

 

$

83.7

 

$

104.0

 

$

132.7

 

$

156.4

 

$

255.2

 

$

241.4

 

$

187.7

 

$

496.6

 

Less: PVP of credit derivatives GWP

 

40.3

 

39.2

 

90.8

 

81.8

 

91.5

 

52.3

 

79.5

 

143.8

 

PVP of financial guaranty GWP

 

43.4

 

64.8

 

41.9

 

74.6

 

163.7

 

189.1

 

108.2

 

352.8

 

Less: Present value of financial guaranty installment premiums (a)

 

22.7

 

29.5

 

8.9

 

43.9

 

33.8

 

5.9

 

52.2

 

39.7

 

Upfront financial guaranty gross written premiums (GWP)

 

20.7

 

35.3

 

33.0

 

30.6

 

129.9

 

183.2

 

55.9

 

313.1

 

Plus: Financial guaranty installment GWP

 

11.5

 

10.3

 

10.2

 

15.6

 

16.5

 

14.6

 

21.8

 

31.1

 

Financial guaranty direct GWP

 

$

32.1

 

$

45.6

 

$

43.1

 

$

46.3

 

$

146.4

 

$

197.8

 

$

77.8

 

$

344.2

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Income statement:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Gross written premiums

 

$

32.1

 

$

45.6

 

$

43.1

 

$

46.3

 

$

146.4

 

$

197.8

 

$

77.8

 

$

344.2

 

Net written premiums

 

31.9

 

42.6

 

35.1

 

44.9

 

144.1

 

192.6

 

74.4

 

336.7

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Net earned premiums:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Scheduled net earned premiums

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

U.S. public finance

 

1.3

 

1.5

 

1.7

 

2.0

 

2.8

 

5.9

 

2.7

 

8.7

 

U.S. structured finance

 

6.1

 

7.3

 

8.3

 

9.7

 

11.3

 

13.6

 

13.4

 

24.9

 

International

 

3.0

 

3.3

 

3.0

 

3.0

 

3.1

 

1.3

 

6.3

 

4.4

 

Total scheduled net earned premiums

 

10.4

 

12.0

 

13.0

 

14.7

 

17.3

 

20.8

 

22.4

 

38.1

 

Net earned premiums from refundings

 

1.7

 

 

1.1

 

 

 

 

1.7

 

 

Total net earned premiums

 

12.1

 

12.0

 

14.1

 

14.7

 

17.3

 

20.8

 

24.1

 

38.1

 

Realized gains and other settlements on credit derivatives:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Net credit derivative premiums earned

 

16.8

 

16.3

 

17.6

 

22.0

 

27.3

 

30.6

 

33.1

 

58.0

 

Net credit derivative recoveries (losses)

 

0.0

 

0.0

 

0.0

 

0.0

 

 

 

0.0

 

 

Ceding commissions income (expense), net

 

0.0

 

(0.1

)

0.1

 

(0.2

)

(0.1

)

0.2

 

(0.0

)

0.1

 

Total realized gains and other settlements on credit derivatives

 

16.9

 

16.2

 

17.8

 

21.9

 

27.3

 

30.9

 

33.1

 

58.1

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Total revenues

 

29.0

 

28.2

 

31.8

 

36.5

 

44.5

 

51.7

 

57.2

 

96.2

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Loss and loss adjustment expenses (recoveries):

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Case

 

0.0

 

0.0

 

0.0

 

0.3

 

0.2

 

32.0

 

0.0

 

32.2

 

Portfolio

 

0.6

 

1.0

 

4.6

 

22.5

 

35.7

 

(3.8

)

1.6

 

31.9

 

Total loss and loss adjustment expenses (recoveries) - financial guaranty

 

0.7

 

1.0

 

4.7

 

22.8

 

35.9

 

28.2

 

1.7

 

64.1

 

Incurred losses on credit derivatives

 

0.6

 

0.7

 

1.8

 

0.5

 

3.2

 

5.6

 

1.3

 

8.8

 

Total loss and loss adjustment expenses (recoveries)

 

1.2

 

1.7

 

6.4

 

23.3

 

39.1

 

33.8

 

2.9

 

72.9

 

Profit commission expense

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Acquisition costs

 

3.0

 

2.2

 

2.5

 

2.4

 

3.0

 

3.1

 

5.2

 

6.1

 

Operating expenses

 

15.9

 

14.5

 

15.1

 

14.9

 

21.3

 

15.2

 

30.4

 

36.5

 

Total expenses

 

$

20.2

 

$

18.5

 

$

24.0

 

$

40.7

 

$

63.4

 

$

52.1

 

$

38.6

 

$

115.5

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Underwriting gain (loss)

 

$

8.8

 

$

9.8

 

$

7.8

 

$

(4.2

)

$

(18.9

)

$

(0.4

)

$

18.5

 

$

(19.3

)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Loss and loss adjustment expense ratio (e)

 

4.2

%

6.0

%

20.2

%

63.6

%

87.7

%

65.7

%

5.1

%

75.9

%

Expense ratio (e)

 

65.4

%

59.4

%

55.2

%

47.9

%

54.6

%

35.1

%

62.5

%

44.2

%

Combined ratio (e)

 

69.6

%

65.4

%

75.4

%

111.5

%

142.3

%

100.8

%

67.6

%

120.1

%

 

Note: Please refer to endnotes for explanation of non-GAAP financial measures [PVP (a) and loss and loss adjustment expense ratio, expense ratio and combined ratio (e)].

 

6



 

Assured Guaranty Ltd.

Financial Guaranty Direct Segment (2 of 2)

(dollars in millions)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Six Months

 

Six Months

 

 

 

1Q-07

 

2Q-07

 

3Q-07

 

4Q-07

 

1Q-08

 

2Q-08

 

2007

 

2008

 

PVP (a):

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

U.S. public finance

 

$

8.8

 

$

15.4

 

$

10.3

 

$

25.6

 

$

123.3

 

$

183.2

 

$

24.2

 

$

306.6

 

U.S. structured finance

 

44.9

 

49.9

 

77.0

 

92.3

 

71.3

 

51.9

 

94.8

 

123.2

 

International

 

29.9

 

38.8

 

45.4

 

38.5

 

60.5

 

6.3

 

68.7

 

66.8

 

Total

 

$

83.7

 

$

104.0

 

$

132.7

 

$

156.4

 

$

255.2

 

$

241.4

 

$

187.7

 

$

496.6

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Gross par written:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

U.S. public finance

 

$

609

 

$

705

 

$

695

 

$

2,271

 

$

7,213

 

$

13,170

 

$

1,314

 

$

20,383

 

U.S. structured finance

 

5,776

 

7,723

 

9,203

 

8,644

 

5,623

 

2,516

 

13,499

 

8,140

 

International

 

2,190

 

2,393

 

2,995

 

4,589

 

3,918

 

495

 

4,583

 

4,413

 

Total

 

$

8,575

 

$

10,822

 

$

12,893

 

$

15,505

 

$

16,755

 

$

16,181

 

$

19,397

 

$

32,936

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Net par outstanding:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

U.S. public finance

 

$

3,989

 

$

4,686

 

$

5,313

 

$

7,504

 

$

14,607

 

$

27,602

 

$

4,686

 

$

27,602

 

U.S. structured finance

 

48,430

 

50,562

 

57,497

 

64,950

 

66,324

 

67,816

 

50,562

 

67,816

 

International

 

21,319

 

22,979

 

25,896

 

30,566

 

35,039

 

35,158

 

22,979

 

35,158

 

Total

 

$

73,738

 

$

78,227

 

$

88,705

 

$

103,021

 

$

115,970

 

$

130,576

 

$

78,227

 

$

130,576

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Net present value of installment premiums in force (d), (1)

 

$

425.3

 

$

459.1

 

$

533.8

 

$

639.2

 

$

715.8

 

$

763.5

 

$

459.1

 

$

763.5

 

Unearned premium reserve net of ceded reinsurance

 

146.1

 

177.0

 

197.7

 

227.8

 

354.4

 

526.2

 

177.0

 

526.2

 

Unearned credit derivative revenues net of ceded amounts

 

10.7

 

10.9

 

13.2

 

16.1

 

16.7

 

18.4

 

10.9

 

18.4

 

 


(1) March 31, 2008 and June 30, 2008 amounts include $481.7 million and $531.6 million of credit derivatives, respectively.

 

Note: Please refer to endnotes for explanation of non-GAAP financial measures [PVP (a) and net present value of estimated future installment premiums in force (d)].

 

7



 

Assured Guaranty Ltd.

Financial Guaranty Reinsurance Segment (1) (1 of 2)

(dollars in millions)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Six Months

 

Six Months

 

 

 

1Q-07

 

2Q-07

 

3Q-07

 

4Q-07

 

1Q-08

 

2Q-08

 

2007

 

2008

 

Present value of financial guaranty and credit derivative GWP (PVP) (a)

 

$

23.1

 

$

21.3

 

$

32.8

 

$

320.7

 

$

21.4

 

$

37.5

 

$

44.4

 

$

58.9

 

Less: PVP of credit derivatives GWP

 

 

 

 

 

1.9

 

 

 

1.9

 

PVP of financial guaranty GWP

 

23.1

 

21.3

 

32.8

 

320.7

 

19.5

 

37.5

 

44.4

 

57.0

 

Less: Present value of financial guaranty installment premiums (a)

 

14.2

 

4.2

 

18.3

 

151.1

 

2.4

 

8.9

 

18.4

 

11.3

 

Upfront financial guaranty gross written premiums (GWP)

 

8.9

 

17.1

 

14.5

 

169.5

 

17.1

 

28.6

 

26.0

 

45.7

 

Plus: Financial guaranty installment GWP

 

9.8

 

8.4

 

9.3

 

13.5

 

8.3

 

19.4

 

18.2

 

27.7

 

Financial guaranty reinsurance GWP

 

$

18.7

 

$

25.5

 

$

23.8

 

$

183.0

 

$

25.4

 

$

48.0

 

$

44.2

 

$

73.4

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Income statement:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Gross written premiums:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Treaty

 

$

14.2

 

$

16.9

 

$

15.8

 

$

19.1

 

$

11.8

 

$

17.9

 

$

31.1

 

$

29.7

 

Facultative

 

4.5

 

8.6

 

8.0

 

163.9

 

13.6

 

30.1

 

13.1

 

43.7

 

Total gross written premiums

 

$

18.7

 

$

25.5

 

$

23.8

 

$

183.0

 

$

25.4

 

$

48.0

 

$

44.2

 

$

73.4

 

Net written premiums

 

18.5

 

25.5

 

23.8

 

183.0

 

25.1

 

48.0

 

44.0

 

73.2

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Net earned premiums:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Scheduled net earned premiums

 

18.7

 

17.3

 

18.1

 

20.0

 

25.4

 

27.5

 

36.0

 

52.9

 

Net earned premiums from refundings

 

3.2

 

6.4

 

3.5

 

1.7

 

2.4

 

2.1

 

9.6

 

4.5

 

Total net earned premiums

 

21.9

 

23.7

 

21.6

 

21.7

 

27.8

 

29.6

 

45.6

 

57.4

 

Realized gains and other settlements on credit derivatives:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Net credit derivative premiums earned

 

 

 

 

 

0.5

 

0.8

 

 

1.3

 

Net credit derivative recoveries (losses)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Ceding commissions income (expense), net

 

 

 

 

 

(0.2

)

(0.3

)

 

(0.4

)

Total realized gains and other settlements on credit derivatives

 

 

 

 

 

0.3

 

0.6

 

 

0.9

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Total revenues

 

21.9

 

23.7

 

21.6

 

21.7

 

28.1

 

30.2

 

45.6

 

58.3

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Loss and loss adjustment expenses (recoveries):

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Case

 

(7.3

)

(2.4

)

2.8

 

(3.6

)

11.7

 

17.2

 

(9.7

)

28.9

 

Portfolio

 

2.5

 

(8.6

)

(6.2

)

(1.3

)

7.4

 

(5.9

)

(6.1

)

1.5

 

Total loss and loss adjustment expenses (recoveries) - financial guaranty

 

(4.8

)

(11.0

)

(3.4

)

(4.8

)

19.2

 

11.3

 

(15.8

)

30.5

 

Incurred losses on credit derivatives

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Total loss and loss adjustment expenses (recoveries)

 

(4.8

)

(11.0

)

(3.4

)

(4.8

)

19.2

 

11.3

 

(15.8

)

30.5

 

Profit commission expense

 

0.9

 

0.5

 

0.8

 

0.5

 

1.1

 

0.9

 

1.4

 

2.0

 

Acquisition costs

 

7.7

 

8.6

 

7.7

 

7.3

 

8.8

 

8.6

 

16.3

 

17.4

 

Operating expenses

 

4.4

 

3.9

 

4.5

 

4.5

 

6.4

 

4.0

 

8.3

 

10.4

 

Total expenses

 

$

8.3

 

$

2.0

 

$

9.6

 

$

7.5

 

$

35.5

 

$

24.8

 

$

10.3

 

$

60.3

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Underwriting gain (loss)

 

$

13.6

 

$

21.7

 

$

12.1

 

$

14.2

 

$

(7.3

)

$

5.4

 

$

35.3

 

$

(2.0

)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Loss and loss adjustment expense ratio (e)

 

(21.9

)%

(46.4

)%

(15.9

)%

(22.3

)%

67.8

%

37.1

%

(34.6

)%

51.9

%

Expense ratio (e)

 

59.6

%

54.9

%

60.1

%

56.7

%

58.1

%

45.2

%

57.1

%

51.5

%

Combined ratio (e)

 

37.7

%

8.5

%

44.2

%

34.4

%

125.9

%

82.3

%

22.5

%

103.4

%

 


(1) Due to the timing of receiving reports prepared by Assured’s ceding companies, PVP for installment premiums, par written and par outstanding on treaty business in the Company’s Financial Guaranty Reinsurance segment are reported on a one-quarter lag.

 

Note: Please refer to endnotes for explanation of non-GAAP financial measures [PVP (a) and loss and loss adjustment expense ratio, expense ratio and combined ratio (e)].

 

8



 

Assured Guaranty Ltd.

Financial Guaranty Reinsurance Segment (1) (2 of 2)

(dollars in millions)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Six Months

 

Six Months

 

 

 

1Q-07

 

2Q-07

 

3Q-07

 

4Q-07

 

1Q-08

 

2Q-08

 

2007

 

2008

 

PVP (a):

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

U.S. public finance

 

$

4.7

 

$

14.1

 

$

10.0

 

$

272.7

 

$

17.6

 

$

26.2

 

$

18.8

 

$

43.8

 

U.S. structured finance

 

3.9

 

2.5

 

3.0

 

22.9

 

2.9

 

7.0

 

6.4

 

10.0

 

International

 

14.4

 

4.7

 

19.8

 

25.0

 

0.9

 

4.2

 

19.1

 

5.1

 

Total

 

$

23.1

 

$

21.3

 

$

32.8

 

$

320.7

 

$

21.4

 

$

37.5

 

$

44.4

 

$

58.9

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Gross par written:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

U.S. public finance

 

$

754

 

$

1,845

 

$

1,344

 

$

26,598

 

$

2,503

 

$

1,492

 

$

2,599

 

$

3,996

 

U.S. structured finance

 

496

 

491

 

472

 

3,195

 

367

 

283

 

987

 

650

 

International

 

537

 

152

 

550

 

3,888

 

370

 

131

 

689

 

501

 

Total

 

$

1,787

 

$

2,488

 

$

2,366

 

$

33,681

 

$

3,240

 

$

1,906

 

$

4,275

 

$

5,147

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Net par outstanding:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

U.S. public finance

 

$

48,929

 

$

48,801

 

$

48,832

 

$

74,409

 

$

75,382

 

$

76,003

 

$

48,801

 

$

76,003

 

U.S. structured finance

 

6,945

 

6,809

 

6,155

 

8,869

 

9,567

 

10,139

 

6,809

 

10,139

 

International

 

9,240

 

9,318

 

10,002

 

13,980

 

13,957

 

13,684

 

9,318

 

13,684

 

Total

 

$

65,115

 

$

64,928

 

$

64,989

 

$

97,258

 

$

98,906

 

$

99,826

 

$

64,928

 

$

99,826

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Net present value of installment premiums in force (d), (2)

 

$

160.2

 

$

155.1

 

$

151.4

 

$

277.0

 

$

276.7

 

$

270.0

 

$

155.1

 

$

270.0

 

Unearned premium reserve net of ceded reinsurance

 

460.9

 

462.9

 

465.0

 

626.3

 

623.7

 

642.1

 

462.9

 

642.1

 

Unearned credit derivative revenues net of ceded amounts

 

 

 

 

 

4.6

 

4.8

 

 

4.8

 

 


(1)   Due to the timing of receiving reports prepared by Assured’s ceding companies, present value of financial guaranty gross written premiums (PVP) for installment premiums, par written and par outstanding on treaty business in the Company’s Financial Guaranty Reinsurance segment are reported on a one-quarter lag.

 

(2)   March 31, 2008 and June 30, 2008 amounts include $15.5 million and $11.8 million of credit derivatives, respectively.

 

Note: Please refer to endnotes for explanation of non-GAAP financial measures [PVP (a) and net present value of estimated future installment premiums in force (d)].

 

9



 

Assured Guaranty Ltd.

Mortgage Guaranty Segment

(dollars in millions)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Six Months

 

Six Months

 

 

 

1Q-07

 

2Q-07

 

3Q-07

 

4Q-07

 

1Q-08

 

2Q-08

 

2007

 

2008

 

Present value of gross written premiums (PVP) (a)

 

$

 

$

 

$

 

$

 

$

 

$

 

$

 

$

 

Less: Present value of installment premiums (a)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Upfront gross written premiums (GWP)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Plus: Installment GWP

 

1.0

 

0.5

 

1.4

 

(0.2

)

0.5

 

 

1.5

 

0.5

 

Mortgage guaranty GWP

 

$

1.0

 

$

0.5

 

$

1.4

 

$

(0.2

)

$

0.5

 

$

 

$

1.5

 

$

0.5

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Income statement:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Gross written premiums

 

$

1.0

 

$

0.5

 

$

1.4

 

$

(0.2

)

$

0.5

 

$

 

$

1.5

 

$

0.5

 

Net written premiums

 

1.0

 

0.5

 

1.4

 

(0.2

)

0.5

 

 

1.5

 

0.5

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Net earned premiums

 

3.1

 

2.3

 

2.9

 

9.2

 

1.9

 

1.3

 

5.4

 

3.1

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Loss and loss adjustment expenses (recoveries):

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Case

 

 

 

 

 

 

0.1

 

 

0.1

 

Portfolio and IBNR

 

0.1

 

0.1

 

0.8

 

(0.4

)

 

 

0.2

 

 

Total loss and loss adjustment expenses (recoveries)

 

0.1

 

0.1

 

0.8

 

(0.4

)

 

0.1

 

0.2

 

0.1

 

Profit commission expense

 

0.7

 

0.4

 

0.4

 

2.4

 

0.1

 

0.1

 

1.1

 

0.2

 

Acquisition costs

 

0.2

 

 

0.2

 

1.2

 

0.1

 

0.1

 

0.2

 

0.2

 

Operating expenses

 

0.3

 

0.5

 

0.3

 

1.0

 

0.9

 

0.5

 

0.8

 

1.4

 

Total expenses

 

$

1.3

 

$

1.0

 

$

1.6

 

$

4.2

 

$

1.1

 

$

0.8

 

$

2.3

 

$

1.9

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Underwriting gain

 

$

1.8

 

$

1.3

 

$

1.3

 

$

5.0

 

$

0.8

 

$

0.5

 

$

3.1

 

$

1.2

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Loss and loss adjustment expense ratio (e)

 

3.3

%

4.3

%

26.5

%

(4.3

)%

0.0

%

7.9

%

3.7

%

3.2

%

Expense ratio (e)

 

37.8

%

39.1

%

27.5

%

50.3

%

57.9

%

55.1

%

38.3

%

57.5

%

Combined ratio (e)

 

41.1

%

43.4

%

54.0

%

46.0

%

57.9

%

63.0

%

42.0

%

60.7

%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Risk in force

 

$

1,374

 

$

1,398

 

$

1,374

 

$

1,116

 

$

857

 

$

844

 

$

1,398

 

$

844

 

Risk written

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Unearned premium reserve net of ceded reinsurance

 

33.5

 

31.6

 

30.1

 

20.8

 

19.4

 

18.1

 

31.6

 

18.1

 

 

Note: Please refer to endnotes for explanation of non-GAAP financial measures [PVP (a) and loss and loss adjustment expense ratio, expense ratio and combined ratio (e)].

 

10



 

Assured Guaranty Ltd.

Other Segment

(dollars in millions)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Six Months

 

Six Months

 

 

 

1Q-07

 

2Q-07

 

3Q-07

 

4Q-07

 

1Q-08

 

2Q-08

 

2007

 

2008

 

Income statement:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Gross written premiums

 

$

3.3

 

$

0.1

 

$

0.1

 

$

 

$

3.5

 

$

 

$

3.4

 

$

3.5

 

Net written premiums

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Net earned premiums

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Realized gains and other settlements on credit derivatives:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Net credit derivative premiums earned

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Net credit derivative recoveries (losses)

 

1.3

 

 

 

 

 

0.4

 

1.3

 

0.4

 

Total realized gains and other settlements on credit derivatives

 

1.3

 

 

 

 

 

0.4

 

1.3

 

0.4

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Total revenues

 

1.3

 

 

 

 

 

0.4

 

1.3

 

0.4

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Loss and loss adjustment expenses (recoveries)

 

 

 

 

 

 

(1.5

)

 

(1.5

)

Incurred losses on credit derivatives

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Total loss and loss adjustment expenses (recoveries)

 

 

 

 

 

 

(1.5

)

 

(1.5

)

Profit commission expense

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Acquisition costs

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Operating expenses

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Total expenses

 

$

 

$

 

$

 

$

 

$

 

$

(1.5

)

$

 

$

(1.5

)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Underwriting gain

 

$

1.3

 

$

 

$

 

$

 

$

 

$

1.9

 

$

1.3

 

$

1.9

 

 

11



 

Assured Guaranty Ltd.

Loss and LAE Reserves by Segment/Type and Analysis of Net Claims Paid

(dollars in millions)

 

 

 

As of June 30, 2008

 

 

 

Financial
Guaranty
Direct

 

Financial
Guaranty
Reinsurance

 

Mortgage
Guaranty

 

Total
Financial
Guaranty

 

Other

 

Total

 

Financial Guaranty Insurance Reserves by segment and type:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Case

 

$

26.2

 

$

54.9

 

$

0.1

 

$

81.1

 

$

2.6

 

$

83.7

 

IBNR

 

 

 

 

 

6.0

 

6.0

 

Portfolio reserves associated with fundamentally sound credits

 

11.1

 

35.2

 

2.8

 

49.1

 

 

49.1

 

Portfolio reserves associated with CMC credits

 

54.3

 

11.0

 

 

65.3

 

 

65.3

 

Total financial guaranty insurance loss and LAE reserves

 

$

91.5

 

$

101.1

 

$

2.9

 

$

195.5

 

$

8.5

 

$

204.0

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Credit Derivative Reserves by segment and type:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Case

 

$

7.2

 

$

 

$

 

$

7.2

 

$

 

$

7.2

 

Plus: Credit derivative portfolio reserves associated with fundamentally sound credits

 

8.1

 

 

 

8.1

 

 

8.1

 

Plus: Credit derivative portfolio reserves associated with CMC credits

 

2.0

 

 

 

2.0

 

 

2.0

 

Total credit derivative loss and LAE reserves

 

$

17.3

 

$

 

$

 

$

17.3

 

$

 

$

17.3

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Total loss and LAE reserves

 

$

108.8

 

$

101.1

 

$

2.9

 

$

212.8

 

$

8.5

 

$

221.3

 

 

 

 

As of December 31, 2007

 

 

 

Financial
Guaranty
Direct

 

Financial
Guaranty
Reinsurance

 

Mortgage
Guaranty

 

Total
Financial
Guaranty

 

Other

 

Total

 

Reserves by segment and type:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Case

 

$

 

$

35.6

 

$

0.1

 

$

35.7

 

$

2.4

 

$

38.1

 

IBNR

 

 

 

 

 

6.4

 

6.4

 

Portfolio reserves associated with fundamentally sound credits

 

17.0

 

33.0

 

2.8

 

52.8

 

 

52.8

 

Portfolio reserves associated with CMC credits

 

16.5

 

11.7

 

 

28.2

 

 

28.2

 

Total loss and LAE reserves

 

$

33.5

 

$

80.3

 

$

2.9

 

$

116.7

 

$

8.8

 

$

125.6

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Credit Derivative Reserves by segment and type:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Case

 

$

3.2

 

$

 

$

 

$

3.2

 

$

 

$

3.2

 

Plus: Credit derivative portfolio reserves associated with fundamentally sound credits

 

3.9

 

 

 

3.9

 

 

3.9

 

Plus: Credit derivative portfolio reserves associated with CMC credits

 

1.2

 

 

 

1.2

 

 

1.2

 

Total credit derivative loss and LAE reserves

 

$

8.3

 

$

 

$

 

$

8.3

 

$

 

$

8.3

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Total loss and LAE reserves

 

$

41.8

 

$

80.3

 

$

2.9

 

$

125.0

 

$

8.8

 

$

133.8

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Analysis of Net Claims Paid

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2Q-08

 

2Q-07

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Net claims paid (recovered) on financial guaranty and credit derivatives by segment:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Financial Guaranty Direct

 

 

 

$

43.2

 

$

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Financial Guaranty Reinsurance

 

 

 

9.6

 

(1.9

)

 

 

 

 

 

 

Mortgage Guaranty

 

 

 

0.2

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Total Financial Guaranty

 

 

 

$

53.0

 

$

(1.9

)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Net earned premiums on financial guaranty and credit derivatives by segment:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Financial Guaranty Direct

 

 

 

$

51.5

 

$

28.3

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Financial Guaranty Reinsurance

 

 

 

30.4

 

23.7

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Mortgage Guaranty

 

 

 

1.3

 

2.3

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Total Financial Guaranty

 

 

 

$

83.2

 

$

54.2

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Ratio of net claims paid (recoevered) by segment:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Financial Guaranty Direct

 

 

 

83.9

%

0.0

%

 

 

 

 

 

 

Financial Guaranty Reinsurance

 

 

 

31.5

%

(8.0

)%

 

 

 

 

 

 

Mortgage Guaranty

 

 

 

15.7

%

0.0

%

 

 

 

 

 

 

Total Financial Guaranty

 

 

 

63.7

%

(3.5

)%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

12



 

Assured Guaranty Ltd.
Investment Portfolio
As of June 30, 2008
(dollars in millions)

 

 

 

Amortized
Cost

 

Pre-Tax
Book
Yield

 

After-Tax
Book
Yield

 

Fair Value

 

Annualized
Investment
Income

 

Fixed maturity securities available for sale:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

U.S. Treasury securities and obligations of U.S. government agencies

 

$

163.3

 

4.5

%

3.9

%

$

170.3

 

$

7.3

 

Agency obligations

 

154.8

 

5.0

%

4.8

%

158.7

 

7.7

 

Foreign government securities

 

53.9

 

4.9

%

3.2

%

53.4

 

2.7

 

Obligations of states and political subdivisions

 

564.8

 

4.7

%

4.4

%

569.4

 

26.4

 

Insured obligations of state and political subdivisions (1)

 

627.3

 

4.7

%

4.5

%

634.3

 

29.7

 

Corporate securities

 

308.8

 

5.8

%

5.0

%

302.1

 

17.9

 

Mortgage-backed securities (2):

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Pass-throughs

 

1,116.9

 

5.6

%

5.2

%

1,101.0

 

62.5

 

PACs

 

61.8

 

4.9

%

4.6

%

60.0

 

3.0

 

Asset-backed securities (3)

 

96.7

 

4.9

%

4.3

%

98.0

 

4.8

 

Preferred stock

 

20.2

 

8.1

%

6.3

%

20.8

 

1.6

 

Total fixed maturity securities available for sale

 

3,168.5

 

5.2

%

4.7

%

3,168.0

 

163.7

 

Short-term investments

 

537.5

 

2.3

%

1.9

%

537.5

 

12.3

 

Total investments

 

$

3,706.0

 

4.7

%

4.3

%

$

3,705.4

 

$

176.0

 

 

 

 

Fair Value

 

%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Ratings (4):

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Treasury and U.S. government obligations

 

$

170.3

 

5.4

%

 

 

 

 

 

 

Agency obligations

 

158.7

 

5.0

%

 

 

 

 

 

 

AAA/Aaa

 

1,672.5

 

52.8

%

 

 

 

 

 

 

AA/Aa

 

782.2

 

24.7

%

 

 

 

 

 

 

A/A

 

384.3

 

12.1

%

 

 

 

 

 

 

BBB

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Total

 

$

3,168.0

 

100.0

%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Duration of investment portfolio (in years):

 

 

 

4.2

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 


(1) Reflects obligations of state and local political subdivisions that have been insured by other financial guarantors. The underlying ratings of these bonds average A+.

(2) $6.0 million is U.S. subprime RMBS, which has an average rating of AAA.

(3) Contains no CDOs of ABS.

(4) Ratings are represented by the lower of the Moody’s Investor Services and Standard & Poor’s classifications.

 

13



 

Assured Guaranty Ltd.

Estimated Net Exposure Amortization (1)

(dollars in millions)

 

 

 

Estimated Net
Debt Service
Amortization

 

Estimated
Ending Net
Debt Service
Outstanding

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Financial Guaranty Direct:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2008 (as of June 30)

 

 

 

$

183,959

 

2008 (July - December)

 

$

4,657

 

179,302

 

2009

 

10,628

 

168,675

 

2010

 

14,027

 

154,648

 

2011

 

13,666

 

140,982

 

2012

 

18,479

 

122,503

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2008-2012

 

61,456

 

122,503

 

2013-2017

 

62,039

 

60,464

 

2018-2022

 

19,353

 

41,111

 

2023-2027

 

12,408

 

28,703

 

After 2027

 

28,703

 

 

Total

 

$

183,959

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Financial Guaranty Reinsurance:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2008 (as of June 30)

 

 

 

$

173,000

 

2008 (July - December)

 

$

4,159

 

168,841

 

2009

 

8,437

 

160,403

 

2010

 

7,711

 

152,692

 

2011

 

8,259

 

144,434

 

2012

 

7,900

 

136,534

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2008-2012

 

36,466

 

136,534

 

2013-2017

 

36,781

 

99,753

 

2018-2022

 

31,723

 

68,030

 

2023-2027

 

24,884

 

43,146

 

After 2027

 

43,146

 

 

Total

 

$

173,000

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Total Financial Guaranty:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2008 (as of June 30)

 

 

 

$

356,959

 

2008 (July - December)

 

$

8,816

 

348,143

 

2009

 

19,065

 

329,078

 

2010

 

21,738

 

307,340

 

2011

 

21,924

 

285,416

 

2012

 

26,379

 

259,037

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2008-2012

 

97,922

 

259,037

 

2013-2017

 

98,821

 

160,216

 

2018-2022

 

51,076

 

109,141

 

2023-2027

 

37,291

 

71,849

 

After 2027

 

71,849

 

 

Total

 

$

356,959

 

 

 

 


(1) Represents amortization of existing guaranteed portfolio (principal and interest), assuming no advance refundings, as of June 30, 2008. Expected maturities will differ from contractual maturities because borrowers may have the right to call or prepay guaranteed obligations.

 

14



 

Assured Guaranty Ltd.

Estimated Net Unearned Premium Amortization and Estimated Future Installment Premiums

(dollars in millions)

 

 

 

Net Unearned
Premiums (1), (2)

 

Estimated
Net Unearned
Premium
Amortization (2)

 

Estimated
Net Future
Installments (2)

 

Total Estimated
Net Future
Premium
Earnings (2)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Financial Guaranty Direct:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2008 (as of June 30)

 

$

544.7

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2008 (3rd & 4th Qtrs)

 

503.4

 

$

41.3

 

$

68.0

 

$

109.3

 

2009

 

471.5

 

31.8

 

168.9

 

200.8

 

2010

 

441.8

 

29.7

 

155.0

 

184.7

 

2011

 

413.7

 

28.1

 

137.2

 

165.3

 

2012

 

386.6

 

27.1

 

112.2

 

139.3

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2008-2012

 

386.6

 

158.0

 

641.3

 

799.3

 

2013-2017

 

272.6

 

114.0

 

214.4

 

328.4

 

2018-2022

 

186.7

 

85.9

 

51.4

 

137.3

 

2023-2027

 

122.7

 

64.0

 

22.5

 

86.5

 

After 2027

 

 

122.7

 

42.5

 

165.2

 

Total

 

 

 

$

544.7

 

$

972.1

 

$

1,516.7

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Financial Guaranty Reinsurance:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2008 (as of June 30)

 

$

646.9

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2008 (3rd & 4th Qtrs)

 

613.2

 

$

33.7

 

$

27.6

 

$

61.3

 

2009

 

557.3

 

55.9

 

51.5

 

107.4

 

2010

 

511.1

 

46.2

 

46.6

 

92.8

 

2011

 

468.2

 

43.0

 

40.9

 

83.9

 

2012

 

428.4

 

39.8

 

32.6

 

72.4

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2008-2012

 

428.4

 

218.5

 

199.3

 

417.7

 

2013-2017

 

265.7

 

162.7

 

115.7

 

278.4

 

2018-2022

 

156.0

 

109.7

 

87.2

 

196.9

 

2023-2027

 

83.5

 

72.5

 

65.1

 

137.6

 

After 2027

 

 

83.5

 

107.7

 

191.2

 

Total

 

 

 

$

646.9

 

$

575.0

 

$

1,221.9

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Total Financial Guaranty:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2008 (as of June 30)

 

$

1,191.5

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2008 (3rd & 4th Qtrs)

 

1,116.6

 

$

74.9

 

$

95.6

 

$

170.5

 

2009

 

1,028.9

 

87.7

 

220.5

 

308.2

 

2010

 

953.0

 

75.9

 

201.6

 

277.5

 

2011

 

881.9

 

71.1

 

178.1

 

249.2

 

2012

 

815.0

 

66.9

 

144.8

 

211.6

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2008-2012

 

815.0

 

376.5

 

840.5

 

1,217.0

 

2013-2017

 

538.3

 

276.7

 

330.1

 

606.9

 

2018-2022

 

342.7

 

195.6

 

138.6

 

334.2

 

2023-2027

 

206.3

 

136.5

 

87.7

 

224.1

 

After 2027

 

 

206.3

 

150.2

 

356.4

 

Total

 

 

 

$

1,191.5

 

$

1,547.1

 

$

2,738.6

 

 


(1) Unearned premium amounts are U.S. GAAP based and net of prepaid reinsurance premiums and include unearned credit derivative revenues net of ceded amounts.

(2) Includes credit derivatives.

 

15



 

Assured Guaranty Ltd.

Financial Guaranty Profile (1 of 6)

As of June 30, 2008

(dollars in millions)

 

Net Par Outstanding and Average Rating by Asset Type

 

 

 

Financial Guaranty
Direct

 

Financial Guaranty
Reinsurance

 

Consolidated

 

Sector:

 

Net Par
Outstanding

 

Avg.
Rating (1)

 

Net Par
Outstanding

 

Avg.
Rating (1)

 

Net Par
Outstanding

 

Avg.
Rating (1)

 

U.S. public finance

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

General obligation

 

$

5,954

 

A+

 

$

19,299

 

A+

 

$

25,253

 

A+

 

Tax backed

 

7,488

 

A

 

16,939

 

A+

 

24,427

 

A+

 

Municipal utilities

 

3,967

 

A

 

11,419

 

A

 

15,386

 

A

 

Healthcare

 

4,870

 

A

 

8,339

 

A+

 

13,209

 

A

 

Transportation

 

2,859

 

A

 

9,293

 

A

 

12,152

 

A

 

Higher education

 

1,793

 

A-

 

3,064

 

A+

 

4,857

 

A+

 

Investor-owned utilities

 

119

 

A

 

2,247

 

BBB+

 

2,365

 

BBB+

 

Housing

 

 

 

2,064

 

A+

 

2,064

 

A+

 

Other public finance

 

554

 

A

 

3,337

 

A+

 

3,891

 

A+

 

Total U.S. public finance

 

$

27,602

 

A

 

$

76,003

 

A+

 

$

103,605

 

A+

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

U.S. structured finance

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Pooled corporate obligations

 

$

34,147

 

AAA

 

$

1,376

 

AA+

 

$

35,523

 

AAA

 

Prime mortgage-backed and home equity

 

11,548

 

AA-

 

1,210

 

BBB-

 

12,758

 

AA-

 

Consumer receivables

 

4,732

 

AA+

 

2,654

 

A

 

7,386

 

AA

 

Subprime mortgage-backed and home equity

 

6,690

 

AA+

 

302

 

BBB+

 

6,992

 

AA+

 

Commercial mortgage-backed securities

 

5,709

 

AAA

 

224

 

A-

 

5,934

 

AAA

 

Commercial receivables

 

2,334

 

AA

 

3,142

 

A-

 

5,476

 

A+

 

Structured credit

 

1,660

 

A-

 

423

 

BBB

 

2,083

 

BBB+

 

Insurance securitizations

 

947

 

AA-

 

354

 

AA

 

1,301

 

AA-

 

Other structured finance

 

49

 

AA

 

453

 

A-

 

502

 

A

 

Total U.S. structured finance

 

$

67,816

 

AA+

 

$

10,139

 

A

 

$

77,955

 

AA

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

International

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Infrastructure and pooled infrastructure

 

$

7,150

 

AA+

 

$

4,445

 

BBB+

 

$

11,596

 

AA-

 

Mortgage-backed and home equity

 

9,854

 

AAA

 

275

 

AA

 

10,130

 

AAA

 

Pooled corporate obligations

 

8,661

 

AAA

 

1,020

 

AAA

 

9,681

 

AAA

 

Regulated utilities

 

4,401

 

A

 

4,358

 

BBB+

 

8,759

 

A-

 

Commercial receivables

 

1,001

 

A-

 

907

 

A-

 

1,908

 

A-

 

Public finance

 

839

 

AA

 

1,018

 

A

 

1,857

 

A+

 

Future flow

 

943

 

BBB

 

373

 

A-

 

1,316

 

BBB+

 

Commercial mortgage-backed securities

 

644

 

AAA

 

390

 

A-

 

1,034

 

AA

 

Insurance securitizations

 

923

 

BB

 

82

 

A

 

1,005

 

BB

 

Structured credit

 

 

 

600

 

A-

 

600

 

A-

 

Consumer receivables

 

 

 

99

 

AAA

 

99

 

AAA

 

Other international structured finance

 

741

 

AAA

 

117

 

BBB+

 

858

 

AA+

 

Total international

 

$

35,158

 

AA

 

$

13,684

 

A-

 

$

48,841

 

AA-

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Total net par outstanding

 

$

130,576

 

AA

 

$

99,826

 

A

 

$

230,402

 

AA-

 

 


(1) Assured’s internal rating.  Assured’s scale is comparable to that of the nationally recognized rating agencies.  The super senior category, which is not generally used by rating agencies, is used by the Company in instances where Assured’s AAA-rated exposure has additional credit enhancement due to either (1) the existence of another security rated AAA that is subordinated to Assured’s exposure or (2) Assured’s exposure benefits from a different form of credit enhancement that would pay any claims first in the event that any of the exposures incurs a loss, and such credit enhancement, in management’s opinion, causes Assured’s attachment point to be materially above the AAA attachment point.

 

Please refer to Glossary for description of selected types of U.S. public finance, U.S. structured finance and International obligations that the Company insures and reinsures.

 

16



 

Assured Guaranty Ltd.

Financial Guaranty Profile (2 of 6)

(dollars in millions)

 

Historical Net Par Outstanding and Average Rating by Asset Type

 

 

 

As of June 30,

 

As of December 31,

 

 

 

2008

 

2007

 

2006

 

Sector:

 

Net Par
Outstanding

 

Avg.
Rating (1)

 

Net Par
Outstanding

 

Avg.
Rating (1)

 

Net Par
Outstanding

 

Avg.
Rating (1)

 

U.S. public finance

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

General obligation

 

$

25,253

 

A+

 

$

20,291

 

A+

 

$

12,700

 

A+

 

Tax backed

 

24,427

 

A+

 

17,799

 

A+

 

11,812

 

A+

 

Municipal utilities

 

15,386

 

A

 

11,672

 

A+

 

9,673

 

A+

 

Healthcare

 

13,209

 

A

 

10,372

 

A

 

6,580

 

A

 

Transportation

 

12,152

 

A

 

9,984

 

A

 

6,302

 

A

 

Higher education

 

4,857

 

A+

 

3,651

 

A+

 

1,282

 

A

 

Investor-owned utilities

 

2,365

 

BBB+

 

2,314

 

BBB+

 

1,580

 

BBB+

 

Housing

 

2,064

 

A+

 

2,041

 

A+

 

1,083

 

AA-

 

Other public finance

 

3,891

 

A+

 

3,790

 

A+

 

1,323

 

AA-

 

Total U.S. public finance

 

$

103,605

 

A+

 

$

81,914

 

A+

 

$

52,335

 

A+

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

U.S. structured finance

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Pooled corporate obligations

 

$

35,523

 

AAA

 

$

33,813

 

AAA

 

$

25,604

 

AAA

 

Prime mortgage-backed and home equity

 

12,758

 

AA-

 

11,238

 

AA-

 

4,849

 

A

 

Consumer receivables

 

7,386

 

AA

 

6,589

 

AA

 

2,663

 

AA-

 

Subprime mortgage-backed and home equity

 

6,992

 

AA+

 

7,010

 

AA+

 

6,390

 

AA+

 

Commercial mortgage-backed securities

 

5,934

 

AAA

 

6,002

 

AA+

 

5,430

 

AAA

 

Commercial receivables

 

5,476

 

A+

 

5,246

 

A+

 

2,450

 

A-

 

Structured credit

 

2,083

 

BBB+

 

1,572

 

A-

 

1,553

 

AA+

 

Insurance securitizations

 

1,301

 

AA-

 

1,158

 

AA-

 

794

 

AA-

 

Other structured finance

 

502

 

A

 

1,191

 

AA

 

1,852

 

AA

 

Total U.S. structured finance

 

$

77,955

 

AA

 

$

73,820

 

AA+

 

$

51,583

 

AA+

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

International

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Infrastructure and pooled infrastructure

 

$

11,596

 

AA-

 

$

11,561

 

AA-

 

$

8,256

 

AA-

 

Mortgage-backed and home equity

 

10,130

 

AAA

 

7,329

 

AAA

 

4,982

 

AAA

 

Pooled corporate obligations

 

9,681

 

AAA

 

8,459

 

AAA

 

3,563

 

AAA

 

Regulated utilities

 

8,759

 

A-

 

8,337

 

A-

 

4,780

 

A-

 

Commercial receivables

 

1,908

 

A-

 

1,913

 

A-

 

1,081

 

A-

 

Public finance

 

1,857

 

A+

 

1,996

 

A+

 

1,202

 

A+

 

Future flow

 

1,316

 

BBB+

 

1,113

 

BBB+

 

1,008

 

BBB

 

Commercial mortgage-backed securities

 

1,034

 

AA

 

1,240

 

AA+

 

1,087

 

AAA

 

Insurance securitizations

 

1,005

 

BB

 

857

 

BBB-

 

923

 

A-

 

Structured credit

 

600

 

A-

 

592

 

A-

 

593

 

A

 

Consumer receivables

 

99

 

AAA

 

357

 

AA+

 

114

 

BBB+

 

Other international structured finance

 

858

 

AA+

 

794

 

AA+

 

788

 

AA+

 

Total international

 

$

48,841

 

AA-

 

$

44,546

 

AA-

 

$

28,378

 

AA-

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Total exposures

 

$

230,402

 

AA-

 

$

200,279

 

AA-

 

$

132,296

 

AA-

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Mortgage guaranty risk in force

 

$

844

 

N/A

 

$

1,116

 

N/A

 

$

1,822

 

N/A

 

 

Distribution by ratings of financial guaranty portfolio

 

 

 

June 30, 2008

 

December 31, 2007

 

December 31, 2006

 

Ratings (1):

 

Net Par
Outstanding

 

%

 

Net Par
Outstanding

 

%

 

Net Par
Outstanding

 

%

 

Super senior

 

$

44,522

 

19.3

%

$

36,359

 

18.2

%

$

16,228

 

12.3

%

AAA

 

40,340

 

17.5

%

47,333

 

23.6

%

40,826

 

30.9

%

AA

 

47,285

 

20.5

%

38,434

 

19.2

%

22,983

 

17.4

%

A

 

63,170

 

27.4

%

49,177

 

24.6

%

32,822

 

24.9

%

BBB

 

31,026

 

13.5

%

26,862

 

13.4

%

18,182

 

13.7

%

Below investment grade

 

4,060

 

1.8

%

2,114

 

1.1

%

1,255

 

0.9

%

Total exposures

 

$

230,402

 

100.0

%

$

200,279

 

100.0

%

$

132,296

 

100.0

%

 


(1) Assured’s internal rating.  Assured’s scale is comparable to that of the nationally recognized rating agencies.  The super senior category, which is not generally used by rating agencies, is used by the Company in instances where Assured’s AAA-rated exposure has additional credit enhancement due to either (1) the existence of another security rated AAA that is subordinated to Assured’s exposure or (2) Assured’s exposure benefits from a different form of credit enhancement that would pay any claims first in the event that any of the exposures incurs a loss, and such credit enhancement, in management’s opinion, causes Assured’s attachment point to be materially above the AAA attachment point.

 

Please refer to Glossary for description of selected types of U.S. public finance, U.S. structured finance and International obligations that the Company insures and reinsures.

 

17



 

Assured Guaranty Ltd.

Financial Guaranty Profile (3 of 6)

(dollars in millions)

 

Gross Par Written by Asset Type

 

 

 

Financial
Guaranty
Direct

 

Avg.
Rating (1)

 

Financial
Guaranty
Reinsurance

 

Avg.
Rating (1)

 

Consolidated

 

Avg.
Rating (1)

 

Sector:

 

2Q-08

 

2Q-08

 

2Q-08

 

U.S. public finance

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Tax backed

 

$

3,397

 

A+

 

$

244

 

A

 

$

3,641

 

A+

 

General obligation

 

2,536

 

A+

 

509

 

AA-

 

3,045

 

A+

 

Municipal utilities

 

2,310

 

A

 

348

 

A-

 

2,658

 

A

 

Transportation

 

1,774

 

A

 

260

 

A+

 

2,034

 

A

 

Healthcare

 

1,773

 

A

 

88

 

A

 

1,861

 

A

 

Higher education

 

840

 

A

 

32

 

A+

 

872

 

A

 

Investor-owned utilities

 

 

 

12

 

A-

 

12

 

A-

 

Housing

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Other public finance

 

540

 

A

 

 

 

540

 

A

 

Total U.S. public finance

 

$

13,170

 

A

 

$

1,492

 

A

 

$

14,662

 

A

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

U.S. structured finance

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Pooled corporate obligations

 

$

1,227

 

AAA

 

$

2

 

AAA

 

$

1,228

 

AAA

 

Prime mortgage-backed and home equity

 

917

 

AAA

 

 

 

917

 

AAA

 

Commercial receivables

 

373

 

A

 

17

 

BBB

 

389

 

A

 

Consumer receivables

 

 

 

225

 

A-

 

225

 

A-

 

Subprime mortgage-backed and home equity

 

 

 

39

 

A

 

39

 

A

 

Commercial mortgage-backed securities

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Insurance securitization

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Structured credit

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Other structured finance

 

 

 

0

 

BBB-

 

0

 

BBB-

 

Total U.S. structured finance

 

$

2,516

 

AA+

 

$

283

 

A-

 

$

2,799

 

AA+

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

International

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Pooled corporate obligations

 

$

338

 

AAA

 

$

 

 

$

338

 

AAA

 

Mortgage-backed and home equity

 

157

 

AAA

 

0

 

AAA

 

158

 

AAA

 

Regulated utilities

 

 

 

67

 

A

 

67

 

A

 

Structured credit

 

 

 

24

 

A

 

24

 

A

 

Infrastructure and pooled infrastructure

 

 

 

20

 

BBB-

 

20

 

BBB-

 

Commercial receivables

 

 

 

0

 

AA

 

0

 

AA

 

Commercial mortgage-backed securities

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Consumer receivables

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Future flow

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Insurance securitizations

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Public finance

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Other international structured finance

 

 

 

20

 

BBB-

 

20

 

BBB-

 

Total international

 

$

495

 

AAA

 

$

131

 

A-

 

$

626

 

AA+

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Total gross par written

 

$

16,181

 

A+

 

$

1,906

 

A

 

$

18,088

 

A+

 

 


(1) Assured’s internal rating.  Assured’s scale is comparable to that of the nationally recognized rating agencies.  The super senior category, which is not generally used by rating agencies, is used by the Company in instances where Assured’s AAA-rated exposure has additional credit enhancement due to either (1) the existence of another security rated AAA that is subordinated to Assured’s exposure or (2) Assured’s exposure benefits from a different form of credit enhancement that would pay any claims first in the event that any of the exposures incurs a loss, and such credit enhancement, in management’s opinion, causes Assured’s attachment point to be materially above the AAA attachment point.

 

Please refer to Glossary for description of selected types of U.S. public finance, U.S. structured finance and International obligations that the Company insures and reinsures.

 

18



 

Assured Guaranty Ltd.

Financial Guaranty Profile (4 of 6)

(dollars in millions)

 

Gross Par Written by Asset Type

 

 

 

Financial
Guaranty
Direct

 

Avg.
Rating (1)

 

Financial
Guaranty
Reinsurance

 

Avg.
Rating (1)

 

Consolidated

 

Avg.
Rating (1)

 

Sector:

 

Six Months 2008

 

Six Months 2008

 

Six Months 2008

 

U.S. public finance

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Tax backed

 

$

5,497

 

A+

 

$

843

 

AA-

 

$

6,340

 

A+

 

General obligation

 

3,887

 

A+

 

1,755

 

A+

 

5,642

 

A+

 

Municipal utilities

 

3,762

 

A

 

399

 

A-

 

4,162

 

A

 

Healthcare

 

2,924

 

A

 

361

 

A

 

3,285

 

A

 

Transportation

 

2,452

 

A

 

512

 

A+

 

2,964

 

A

 

Higher education

 

1,222

 

A

 

49

 

AA-

 

1,271

 

A

 

Investor-owned utilities

 

80

 

BBB+

 

22

 

A-

 

102

 

BBB+

 

Housing

 

 

 

54

 

AA

 

54

 

AA

 

Other public finance

 

559

 

A

 

 

 

559

 

A

 

Total U.S. public finance

 

$

20,383

 

A

 

$

3,996

 

A+

 

$

24,379

 

A

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

U.S. structured finance

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Prime mortgage-backed and home equity

 

$

3,034

 

AAA

 

$

102

 

A+

 

$

3,135

 

AAA

 

Pooled corporate obligations

 

2,659

 

AAA

 

130

 

AA+

 

2,789

 

AAA

 

Consumer receivables

 

1,475

 

AAA

 

314

 

A-

 

1,789

 

AA+

 

Structured credit

 

600

 

BBB+

 

 

 

600

 

BBB+

 

Commercial receivables

 

373

 

A

 

17

 

BBB

 

389

 

A

 

Subprime mortgage-backed and home equity

 

 

 

54

 

A+

 

54

 

A+

 

Commercial mortgage-backed Securities

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Insurance securitization

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Other structured finance

 

 

 

34

 

AA

 

34

 

AA

 

Total U.S. structured finance

 

$

8,140

 

AA+

 

$

650

 

A+

 

$

8,790

 

AA+

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

International

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Mortgage-backed and home equity

 

$

3,096

 

AAA

 

$

14

 

AAA

 

$

3,110

 

AAA

 

Pooled corporate obligations

 

618

 

AAA

 

38

 

AAA

 

656

 

AAA

 

Regulated utilities

 

450

 

A+

 

86

 

A

 

536

 

A+

 

Future flow

 

250

 

BBB+

 

 

 

250

 

BBB+

 

Infrastructure and pooled infrastructure

 

 

 

162

 

A+

 

162

 

A+

 

Consumer receivables

 

 

 

152

 

AAA

 

152

 

AAA

 

Structured credit

 

 

 

24

 

A

 

24

 

A

 

Commercial receivables

 

 

 

6

 

AA

 

6

 

AA

 

Commercial mortgage-backed Securities

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Insurance securitizations

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Public finance

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Other international structured finance

 

 

 

20

 

BBB-

 

20

 

BBB-

 

Total international

 

$

4,413

 

AA+

 

$

501

 

AA-

 

$

4,914

 

AA+

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Total gross par written

 

$

32,936

 

AA-

 

$

5,147

 

A+

 

$

38,083

 

AA-

 

 


(1) Assured’s internal rating.  Assured’s scale is comparable to that of the nationally recognized rating agencies.  The super senior category, which is not generally used by rating agencies, is used by the Company in instances where Assured’s AAA-rated exposure has additional credit enhancement due to either (1) the existence of another security rated AAA that is subordinated to Assured’s exposure or (2) Assured’s exposure benefits from a different form of credit enhancement that would pay any claims first in the event that any of the exposures incurs a loss, and such credit enhancement, in management’s opinion, causes Assured’s attachment point to be materially above the AAA attachment point.

 

Please refer to Glossary for description of selected types of U.S. public finance, U.S. structured finance and International obligations that the Company insures and reinsures.

 

19



 

Assured Guaranty Ltd.

Financial Guaranty Profile (5 of 6)

(dollars in millions)

 

Distribution by Ratings of Financial Guaranty Portfolio

 

 

 

As of June 30, 2008

 

 

 

Financial Guaranty
Direct

 

Financial Guaranty
Reinsurance

 

Consolidated

 

Ratings (1):

 

Net Par
Outstanding

 

%

 

Net Par
Outstanding

 

%

 

Net Par
Outstanding

 

%

 

Super senior

 

$

44,493

 

34.1

%

$

29

 

0.0

%

$

44,522

 

19.3

%

AAA

 

34,986

 

26.8

%

5,354

 

5.4

%

40,340

 

17.5

%

AA

 

14,167

 

10.8

%

33,117

 

33.2

%

47,285

 

20.5

%

A

 

22,978

 

17.6

%

40,192

 

40.3

%

63,170

 

27.4

%

BBB

 

11,256

 

8.6

%

19,770

 

19.8

%

31,026

 

13.5

%

Below investment grade

 

2,697

 

2.1

%

1,363

 

1.4

%

4,060

 

1.8

%

Total exposures

 

$

130,576

 

100.0

%

$

99,826

 

100.0

%

$

230,402

 

100.0

%

 

 

 

As of December 31, 2007

 

 

 

Financial Guaranty
Direct

 

Financial Guaranty
Reinsurance

 

Consolidated

 

Ratings (1):

 

Net Par
Outstanding

 

%

 

Net Par
Outstanding

 

%

 

Net Par
Outstanding

 

%

 

Super senior

 

$

36,359

 

35.3

%

$

 

 

$

36,359

 

18.2

%

AAA

 

41,716

 

40.5

%

5,617

 

5.8

%

47,333

 

23.6

%

AA

 

5,576

 

5.4

%

32,858

 

33.8

%

38,434

 

19.2

%

A

 

9,873

 

9.6

%

39,304

 

40.4

%

49,177

 

24.6

%

BBB

 

7,970

 

7.7

%

18,892

 

19.4

%

26,862

 

13.4

%

Below investment grade

 

1,526

 

1.5

%

588

 

0.6

%

2,114

 

1.1

%

Total exposures

 

$

103,021

 

100.0

%

$

97,258

 

100.0

%

$

200,279

 

100.0

%

 

 

 

As of June 30, 2008

 

 

 

U.S. Public
Finance

 

U.S. Structured
Finance

 

International

 

Consolidated

 

Ratings (1):

 

Net Par
Outstanding

 

%

 

Net Par
Outstanding

 

%

 

Net Par
Outstanding

 

%

 

Net Par
Outstanding

 

%

 

Super senior

 

$

 

 

$

28,997

 

37.2

%

$

15,524

 

31.8

%

$

44,522

 

19.3

%

AAA

 

1,618

 

1.6

%

26,947

 

34.6

%

11,774

 

24.1

%

40,340

 

17.5

%

AA

 

37,091

 

35.8

%

6,912

 

8.9

%

3,282

 

6.7

%

47,285

 

20.5

%

A

 

50,436

 

48.7

%

6,149

 

7.9

%

6,584

 

13.5

%

63,170

 

27.4

%

BBB

 

13,679

 

13.2

%

6,681

 

8.6

%

10,666

 

21.8

%

31,026

 

13.5

%

Below investment grade

 

780

 

0.8

%

2,268

 

2.9

%

1,011

 

2.1

%

4,060

 

1.8

%

Total exposures

 

$

103,605

 

100.0

%

$

77,955

 

100.0

%

$

48,841

 

100.0

%

$

230,402

 

100.0

%

 

 

 

As of December 31, 2007

 

 

 

U.S. Public
Finance

 

U.S. Structured
Finance

 

International

 

Consolidated

 

Ratings (1):

 

Net Par
Outstanding

 

%

 

Net Par
Outstanding

 

%

 

Net Par
Outstanding

 

%

 

Net Par
Outstanding

 

%

 

Super senior

 

$

 

 

$

22,098

 

29.9

%

$

14,261

 

32.0

%

$

36,359

 

18.2

%

AAA

 

1,777

 

2.2

%

34,370

 

46.6

%

11,185

 

25.1

%

47,333

 

23.6

%

AA

 

31,750

 

38.8

%

4,676

 

6.3

%

2,008

 

4.5

%

38,434

 

19.2

%

A

 

37,604

 

45.9

%

5,302

 

7.2

%

6,271

 

14.1

%

49,177

 

24.6

%

BBB

 

10,608

 

13.0

%

5,479

 

7.4

%

10,776

 

24.2

%

26,862

 

13.4

%

Below investment grade

 

174

 

0.2

%

1,894

 

2.6

%

45

 

0.1

%

2,114

 

1.1

%

Total exposures

 

$

81,914

 

100.0

%

$

73,820

 

100.0

%

$

44,546

 

100.0

%

$

200,279

 

99.9

%

 


(1) Assured’s internal rating.  Assured’s scale is comparable to that of the nationally recognized rating agencies.  The super senior category, which is not generally used by rating agencies, is used by the Company in instances where Assured’s AAA-rated exposure has additional credit enhancement due to either (1) the existence of another security rated AAA that is subordinated to Assured’s exposure or (2) Assured’s exposure benefits from a different form of credit enhancement that would pay any claims first in the event that any of the exposures incurs a loss, and such credit enhancement, in management’s opinion, causes Assured’s attachment point to be materially above the AAA attachment point.

 

20



 

Assured Guaranty Ltd.

Financial Guaranty Profile (6 of 6)

(dollars in millions)

 

Geographic Distribution of Financial Guaranty Portfolio as of June 30, 2008

 

 

 

Net Par

 

 

 

 

 

Outstanding

 

%

 

U.S.:

 

 

 

 

 

California

 

$

16,574

 

7.2

%

New York

 

9,163

 

4.0

%

Florida

 

8,791

 

3.8

%

Texas

 

6,403

 

2.8

%

Illinois

 

5,490

 

2.4

%

Pennsylvania

 

4,303

 

1.9

%

Massachusetts

 

4,245

 

1.8

%

New Jersey

 

3,648

 

1.6

%

Michigan

 

2,985

 

1.3

%

Washington

 

2,840

 

1.2

%

Other states

 

39,164

 

17.0

%

Mortgage and structured (multiple states)

 

77,955

 

33.8

%

Total U.S.

 

$

181,560

 

78.8

%

 

 

 

 

 

 

International:

 

 

 

 

 

United Kingdom

 

$

28,174

 

12.2

%

Germany

 

4,180

 

1.8

%

Australia

 

3,521

 

1.5

%

Ireland

 

925

 

0.4

%

Turkey

 

815

 

0.4

%

Other

 

11,227

 

4.9

%

Total International

 

$

48,841

 

21.2

%

 

 

 

 

 

 

Total exposures

 

$

230,402

 

100.0

%

 

21



 

Assured Guaranty Ltd.

Pooled Corporate Profile

(dollars in millions)

 

Distribution by Ratings of Direct Pooled Corporate Obligations as of June 30, 2008

 

Ratings (1):

 

Net Par
Outstanding

 

%

 

Avg. Initial Credit
Enhancement (2)

 

Avg. Current
Enhancement (2)

 

AAA

 

$

38,012

 

88.8

%

37.7

%

36.2

%

AA

 

3,907

 

9.1

%

34.4

%

32.2

%

A

 

635

 

1.5

%

46.5

%

41.1

%

BBB

 

253

 

0.6

%

48.2

%

39.7

%

Below investment grade

 

 

 

 

 

Total exposures

 

$

42,808

 

100.0

%

37.6

%

36.0

%

 

Distribution of Direct Pooled Corporate Obligations by Year Insured as of June 30, 2008

 

Year insured:

 

Net Par
Outstanding

 

%

 

Avg. Initial Credit
Enhancement (2)

 

Avg. Current
Enhancement (2)

 

2004 and prior

 

$

2,069

 

4.8

%

33.9

%

33.9

%

2005

 

7,499

 

17.5

%

36.9

%

34.7

%

2006

 

13,213

 

30.9

%

37.7

%

35.0

%

2007

 

16,765

 

39.2

%

38.3

%

37.2

%

2008 YTD

 

3,262

 

7.6

%

37.5

%

37.6

%

 

 

$

42,808

 

100.0

%

37.6

%

36.0

%

 

Distribution of Direct Pooled Corporate Obligations by Asset Class as of June 30, 2008

 

Asset class:

 

Net Par
Outstanding

 

%

 

Average Rating (1)

 

Avg. Initial Credit
Enhancement (2)

 

Avg. Current
Enhancement (2)

 

High yield corporates

 

$

27,314

 

63.8

%

AAA

 

35.4

%

33.6

%

Trust preferred - banks and insurance

 

3,907

 

9.1

%

AAA

 

47.2

%

45.9

%

Trust preferred - US mortgage and REITs

 

2,571

 

6.0

%

AA

 

50.0

%

45.7

%

Trust preferred - European mortgage and REITs

 

1,309

 

3.1

%

AAA

 

36.6

%

36.8

%

Market value CDOs of corporates

 

4,245

 

9.9

%

AAA

 

38.6

%

36.8

%

Investment grade corporates

 

2,337

 

5.5

%

AAA

 

28.7

%

29.6

%

Commercial real estate

 

755

 

1.8

%

AAA

 

49.0

%

48.9

%

CDO of CDOs (corporate)

 

370

 

0.9

%

AAA

 

34.6

%

35.3

%

 

 

$

42,808

 

100.0

%

AAA

 

37.6

%

36.0

%

 


(1) Assured’s internal rating.  Assured’s scale is comparable to that of the nationally recognized rating agencies.  The super senior category, which is not generally used by rating agencies, is used by the Company in instances where Assured’s AAA-rated exposure has additional credit enhancement due to either (1) the existence of another security rated AAA that is subordinated to Assured’s exposure or (2) Assured’s exposure benefits from a different form of credit enhancement that would pay any claims first in the event that any of the exposures incurs a loss, and such credit enhancement, in management’s opinion, causes Assured’s attachment point to be materially above the AAA attachment point.

 

(2) “Average Credit Enhancement” is intended to provide a measure of the amount of equity and/or subordinate tranches that are junior in the capital structure to Assured’s exposure, and reflects any reduction of that credit support resulting from defaults or other factors. For transactions where excess spread may be available to absorb certain losses, the numbers shown above do not include any benefit from excess spread. The calculation methodologies differ for the various asset classes to reflect differences in transaction structures in order to provide a measure that management believes is comparable across asset classes. Data is obtained from third-party sources such as trustee reports and may be subject to misstatement or correction.

 

22



 

Assured Guaranty Ltd.

Residential Mortgage-Backed Securities Profile (1 of 6)

(dollars in millions)

 

Distribution by Ratings(1) of Residential Mortgage-Backed Securities by Category as of June 30, 2008

 

 

 

June 30, 2008

 

 

 

US

 

International

 

Total Net Par

 

 

 

Ratings (1):

 

Prime

 

Subprime

 

Prime

 

Subprime

 

Outstanding

 

% of Total

 

Super senior

 

$

5,554

 

$

3,370

 

$

2,826

 

$

 

$

11,750

 

39.3

%

AAA

 

2,499

 

2,372

 

7,009

 

15

 

11,895

 

39.8

%

AA

 

366

 

581

 

154

 

2

 

1,103

 

3.7

%

A

 

1,338

 

203

 

110

 

 

1,651

 

5.5

%

BBB

 

978

 

276

 

14

 

 

1,267

 

4.2

%

Below investment grade

 

2,023

 

190

 

 

 

2,213

 

7.4

%

Total exposures

 

$

12,758

 

$

6,992

 

$

10,113

 

$

17

 

$

29,879

 

100.0

%

 

Distribution of Residential Mortgage-Backed Securities by Category and by Year Insured as of June 30, 2008

 

 

 

US

 

International

 

Total Net Par

 

 

 

Year insured:

 

Prime

 

Subprime

 

Prime

 

Subprime

 

Outstanding

 

% of Total

 

2004 and prior

 

$

616

 

$

648

 

$

463

 

$

14

 

1,741

 

5.8

%

2005

 

1,543

 

101

 

1,245

 

0

 

2,889

 

9.7

%

2006

 

699

 

4,558

 

2,383

 

 

7,639

 

25.6

%

2007

 

7,129

 

1,649

 

2,830

 

2

 

11,610

 

38.9

%

2008 YTD

 

2,771

 

37

 

3,192

 

 

6,000

 

20.1

%

 

 

$

12,758

 

$

6,992

 

$

10,113

 

$

17

 

$

29,879

 

100.0

%

 

Distribution of U.S. Residential Mortgage-Backed Securities by Rating(1) as of June 30, 2008

 

 

 

Direct
Net Par

 

 

 

Reinsurance
Net Par

 

 

 

Total
Net Par

 

 

 

Ratings (1):

 

Outstanding

 

%

 

Outstanding

 

%

 

Outstanding

 

%

 

Super senior

 

$

8,915

 

48.9

%

$

9

 

0.6

%

$

8,924

 

45.2

%

AAA

 

4,508

 

24.7

%

363

 

24.0

%

4,871

 

24.7

%

AA

 

844

 

4.6

%

103

 

6.8

%

947

 

4.8

%

A

 

1,371

 

7.5

%

170

 

11.3

%

1,541

 

7.8

%

BBB

 

915

 

5.0

%

338

 

22.4

%

1,254

 

6.3

%

Below investment grade

 

1,685

 

9.2

%

528

 

34.9

%

2,213

 

11.2

%

 

 

$

18,238

 

100.0

%

$

1,512

 

100.0

%

$

19,750

 

100.0

%

 


(1) Assured’s internal rating.  Assured’s scale is comparable to that of the nationally recognized rating agencies.  The super senior category, which is not generally used by rating agencies, is used by the Company in instances where Assured’s AAA-rated exposure has additional credit enhancement due to either (1) the existence of another security rated AAA that is subordinated to Assured’s exposure or (2) Assured’s exposure benefits from a different form of credit enhancement that would pay any claims first in the event that any of the exposures incurs a loss, and such credit enhancement, in management’s opinion, causes Assured’s attachment point to be materially above the AAA attachment point.

 

23



 

Assured Guaranty Ltd.

Residential Mortgage-Backed Securities Profile (2 of 6)

(dollars in millions)

 

Distribution of Consolidated U.S. Residential Mortgage-Backed Securities by Rating(1) as of June 30, 2008

 

Ratings (1):

 

Prime First
Lien

 

Prime Closed
End Seconds

 

Prime HELOC

 

Alt-A First Lien

 

Subprime First
Lien

 

Total Net Par
Outstanding

 

Super senior

 

$

696

 

$

48

 

$

 

$

4,809

 

$

3,370

 

$

8,924

 

AAA

 

494

 

67

 

17

 

1,922

 

2,372

 

4,871

 

AA

 

92

 

258

 

14

 

2

 

581

 

947

 

A

 

145

 

 

15

 

1,178

 

203

 

1,541

 

BBB

 

738

 

6

 

210

 

23

 

276

 

1,254

 

Below investment grade

 

0

 

105

 

1,818

 

99

 

190

 

2,213

 

Total exposures

 

$

2,164

 

$

485

 

$

2,075

 

$

8,034

 

$

6,992

 

$

19,750

 

 

Distribution of Consolidated U.S. Residential Mortgage-Backed Securities by Year Issued as of June 30, 2008

 

Year issued:

 

Prime First
Lien

 

Prime Closed
End Seconds

 

Prime HELOC

 

Alt-A First Lien

 

Subprime First
Lien

 

Total Net Par
Outstanding

 

2004 and prior

 

$

303

 

$

 

$

214

 

$

158

 

$

638

 

$

1,313

 

2005

 

226

 

 

837

 

557

 

3,747

 

5,367

 

2006

 

498

 

6

 

204

 

634

 

1,921

 

3,263

 

2007

 

1,137

 

478

 

820

 

6,685

 

667

 

9,788

 

2008 YTD

 

 

 

 

 

19

 

19

 

 

 

$

2,164

 

$

485

 

$

2,075

 

$

8,034

 

$

6,992

 

$

19,750

 

 


(1) Assured’s internal rating.  Assured’s scale is comparable to that of the nationally recognized rating agencies.  The super senior category, which is not generally used by rating agencies, is used by the Company in instances where Assured’s AAA-rated exposure has additional credit enhancement due to either (1) the existence of another security rated AAA that is subordinated to Assured’s exposure or (2) Assured’s exposure benefits from a different form of credit enhancement that would pay any claims first in the event that any of the exposures incurs a loss, and such credit enhancement, in management’s opinion, causes Assured’s attachment point to be materially above the AAA attachment point.

 

24



 

Assured Guaranty Ltd.

Residential Mortgage-Backed Securities Profile (3 of 6)

(dollars in millions)

 

Financial Guaranty Direct U.S. Residential Mortgage-Backed Securities Net Par Outstanding Underwritten Since January 1, 2004 by Rating(1) and Year of Issue as of June 30, 2008

 

Year

 

Super

 

AAA

 

AA

 

A

 

BBB

 

BIG

 

 

 

Issued

 

Senior

 

Rated

 

Rated

 

Rated

 

Rated

 

Rated

 

Total

 

2004 and prior

 

$

17

 

$

436

 

$

6

 

$

 

$

178

 

$

54

 

$

691

 

2005

 

2,082

 

2,213

 

180

 

 

 

706

 

5,181

 

2006

 

1,387

 

404

 

400

 

150

 

444

 

118

 

2,903

 

2007

 

5,429

 

1,455

 

257

 

1,221

 

293

 

807

 

9,462

 

2008 YTD

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

$

8,915

 

$

4,508

 

$

844

 

$

1,371

 

$

915

 

$

1,685

 

$

18,238

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

% of total

 

48.9

%

24.7

%

4.6

%

7.5

%

5.0

%

9.2

%

100.0

%

 

Distribution of Financial Guaranty Direct U.S. Residential Mortgage-Backed Securities by Rating(1) as of June 30, 2008

 

Ratings (1):

 

Prime First
Lien

 

Prime Closed
End Seconds

 

Prime HELOC

 

Alt-A First
Lien

 

Subprime First
Lien

 

Total Net Par
Outstanding

 

 

 

Super senior

 

$

696

 

$

48

 

$

 

$

4,800

 

$

3,370

 

$

8,915

 

 

 

AAA

 

338

 

64

 

 

1,873

 

2,233

 

4,508

 

 

 

AA

 

 

257

 

6

 

 

580

 

844

 

 

 

A

 

 

 

 

1,177

 

194

 

1,371

 

 

 

BBB

 

662

 

 

19

 

 

234

 

915

 

 

 

Below investment grade

 

 

97

 

1,416

 

93

 

79

 

1,685

 

 

 

Total exposures

 

$

1,697

 

$

466

 

$

1,441

 

$

7,944

 

$

6,690

 

$

18,238

 

 

 

 

Distribution of Financial Guaranty Direct U.S. Residential Mortgage-Backed Securities by Rating(1) as of June 30, 2008

 

Ratings (1):

 

Prime First
Lien

 

Prime Closed
End Seconds

 

Prime HELOC

 

Alt-A First
Lien

 

Subprime First
Lien

 

 

 

 

 

Super senior

 

41.0

%

10.3

%

 

60.4

%

50.4

%

 

 

 

 

AAA

 

19.9

%

13.6

%

 

23.6

%

33.4

%

 

 

 

 

AA

 

 

55.2

%

0.4

%

 

8.7

%

 

 

 

 

A

 

 

 

 

14.8

%

2.9

%

 

 

 

 

BBB

 

39.0

%

 

1.3

%

 

3.5

%

 

 

 

 

Below investment grade

 

 

20.8

%

98.2

%

1.2

%

1.2

%

 

 

 

 

Total exposures

 

100.0

%

100.0

%

100.0

%

100.0

%

100.0

%

 

 

 

 

 

Distribution of Financial Guaranty Direct U.S. Residential Mortgage-Backed Securities by Year Insured as of June 30, 2008

 

Year insured:

 

Prime First
Lien

 

Prime Closed
End Seconds

 

Prime HELOC

 

Alt-A First
Lien

 

Subprime First
Lien

 

Total Net Par
Outstanding

 

 

 

2004 and prior

 

$

 

$

 

$

25

 

$

133

 

$

516

 

$

675

 

 

 

2005

 

194

 

 

706

 

439

 

88

 

1,428

 

 

 

2006

 

369

 

 

 

54

 

4,535

 

4,958

 

 

 

2007

 

1,134

 

466

 

710

 

4,547

 

1,550

 

8,406

 

 

 

2008 YTD

 

 

 

 

2,771

 

 

2,771

 

 

 

 

 

$

1,697

 

$

466

 

$

1,441

 

$

7,944

 

$

6,690

 

$

18,238

 

 

 

 

Distribution of Financial Guaranty Direct U.S. Residential Mortgage-Backed Securities by Year Issued as of June 30, 2008

 

Year issued:

 

Prime First
Lien

 

Prime Closed
End Seconds

 

Prime HELOC

 

Alt-A First
Lien

 

Subprime First
Lien

 

Total Net Par
Outstanding

 

 

 

2004 and prior

 

$

 

$

 

$

25

 

$

150

 

$

516

 

$

691

 

 

 

2005

 

194

 

 

706

 

557

 

3,723

 

5,181

 

 

 

2006

 

369

 

 

 

634

 

1,900

 

2,903

 

 

 

2007

 

1,134

 

466

 

710

 

6,603

 

550

 

9,462

 

 

 

2008 YTD

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

$

1,697

 

$

466

 

$

1,441

 

$

7,944

 

$

6,690

 

$

18,238

 

 

 

 


(1) Assured’s internal rating.  Assured’s scale is comparable to that of the nationally recognized rating agencies.  The super senior category, which is not generally used by rating agencies, is used by the Company in instances where Assured’s AAA-rated exposure has additional credit enhancement due to either (1) the existence of another security rated AAA that is subordinated to Assured’s exposure or (2) Assured’s exposure benefits from a different form of credit enhancement that would pay any claims first in the event that any of the exposures incurs a loss, and such credit enhancement, in management’s opinion, causes Assured’s attachment point to be materially above the AAA attachment point.

 

25



 

Assured Guaranty Ltd.

Residential Mortgage-Backed Securities Profile (4 of 6)

(dollars in millions)

 

Distribution of U.S. Subprime Residential Mortgage-Backed Securities by Rating(1) and Year Insured as of June 30, 2008

 

Year

 

Super

 

AAA

 

AA

 

A

 

BBB

 

BIG

 

 

 

insured:

 

Senior

 

Rated

 

Rated

 

Rated

 

Rated

 

Rated

 

Total

 

2004 and prior

 

$

 

$

373

 

$

1

 

$

9

 

$

173

 

$

92

 

$

648

 

2005

 

 

99

 

 

 

2

 

 

101

 

2006

 

2,864

 

1,492

 

180

 

 

9

 

12

 

4,558

 

2007

 

506

 

390

 

400

 

194

 

92

 

67

 

1,649

 

2008 YTD

 

 

19

 

 

 

 

18

 

37

 

 

 

$

3,370

 

$

2,372

 

$

581

 

$

203

 

$

276

 

$

190

 

$

6,992

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

% of total

 

48.2

%

33.9

%

8.3

%

2.9

%

3.9

%

2.7

%

100.0

%

 


(1) Assured’s internal rating.  Assured’s scale is comparable to that of the nationally recognized rating agencies.  The super senior category, which is not generally used by rating agencies, is used by the Company in instances where Assured’s AAA-rated exposure has additional credit enhancement due to either (1) the existence of another security rated AAA that is subordinated to Assured’s exposure or (2) Assured’s exposure benefits from a different form of credit enhancement that would pay any claims first in the event that any of the exposures incurs a loss, and such credit enhancement, in management’s opinion, causes Assured’s attachment point to be materially above the AAA attachment point.

 

26



 

Assured Guaranty Ltd.

Residential Mortgage-Backed Securities Profile (5 of 6)

(dollars in millions)

 

Distribution of U.S. Alt-A Residential Mortgage-Backed Securities by Rating (1), Exposure Type and Year Insured as of June 30, 2008

 

Year

 

Super

 

AAA

 

AA

 

A

 

BBB

 

BIG

 

 

 

insured:

 

Senior

 

Rated

 

Rated

 

Rated

 

Rated

 

Rated

 

Total

 

2004 and prior

 

$

 

$

139

 

$

 

$

 

$

 

$

 

$

139

 

2005

 

 

441

 

 

 

 

 

441

 

2006

 

 

54

 

 

 

 

 

54

 

2007

 

2,038

 

1,288

 

2

 

1,178

 

23

 

99

 

4,629

 

2008 YTD

 

2,771

 

 

 

 

 

 

2,771

 

 

 

$

4,809

 

$

1,922

 

$

2

 

$

1,178

 

$

23

 

$

99

 

$

8,034

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

% of total

 

59.9

%

23.9

%

0.0

%

14.7

%

0.3

%

1.2

%

100.0

%

 


(1) Assured’s internal rating.  Assured’s scale is comparable to that of the nationally recognized rating agencies.  The super senior category, which is not generally used by rating agencies, is used by the Company in instances where Assured’s AAA-rated exposure has additional credit enhancement due to either (1) the existence of another security rated AAA that is subordinated to Assured’s exposure or (2) Assured’s exposure benefits from a different form of credit enhancement that would pay any claims first in the event that any of the exposures incurs a loss, and such credit enhancement, in management’s opinion, causes Assured’s attachment point to be materially above the AAA attachment point.

 

27



 

Assured Guaranty Ltd.

Residential Mortgage-Backed Securities Profile (6 of 6)

(dollars in millions)

 

Distribution of Financial Guaranty Direct U.S. Mortgage-Backed Securities Issued January 1, 2005 or Later by Exposure Type, Average Pool Factor, Subordination, Cumulative Losses and 60+ Day Delinquincies as of June 30, 2008 (1)

 

U.S. Prime First Lien

 

Year issued:

 

Net Par
Outstanding

 

Pool Factor(2)

 

Subordination (3)

 

Cumulative
Losses (4)

 

60+ Day
Delinquencies (5)

 

2005

 

$

194

 

77.8

%

3.3

%

0.03

%

1.4

%

2006

 

369

 

73.2

%

4.2

%

0.0

%

2.9

%

2007

 

1,134

 

91.2

%

9.2

%

0.0

%

1.7

%

2008

 

 

N/A

 

N/A

 

N/A

 

N/A

 

 

 

$

1,697

 

85.8

%

7.5

%

0.004

%

1.9

%

 

U.S. Prime CES

 

Year issued:

 

Net Par
Outstanding

 

Pool Factor(2)

 

Subordination (3)

 

Cumulative
Losses (4)

 

60+ Day
Delinquencies (5)

 

2005

 

$

 

N/A

 

N/A

 

N/A

 

N/A

 

2006

 

 

N/A

 

N/A

 

N/A

 

N/A

 

2007

 

466

 

82.9

%

32.9

%

10.6

%

12.8

%

2008

 

 

N/A

 

N/A

 

N/A

 

N/A

 

 

 

$

466

 

82.9

%

32.9

%

10.6

%

12.8

%

 

U.S. Prime HELOC

 

Year issued:

 

Net Par
Outstanding

 

Pool Factor(2)

 

Subordination (3)

 

Cumulative
Losses (4)

 

60+ Day
Delinquencies (5)

 

2005

 

$

706

 

39.1

%

0.6

%

6.3

%

12.9

%

2006

 

 

N/A

 

N/A

 

N/A

 

N/A

 

2007

 

710

 

79.7

%

0.0

%

6.2

%

8.2

%

2008

 

 

N/A

 

N/A

 

N/A

 

N/A

 

 

 

$

1,416

 

59.4

%

0.3

%

6.2

%

10.5

%

 

U.S. Alt-A First Lien

 

Year issued:

 

Net Par
Outstanding

 

Pool Factor(2)

 

Subordination (3)

 

Cumulative
Losses (4)

 

60+ Day
Delinquencies (5)

 

2005

 

$

557

 

57.6

%

13.4

%

0.3

%

8.2

%

2006

 

634

 

75.1

%

31.6

%

0.4

%

18.6

%

2007

 

6,603

 

83.5

%

20.5

%

0.2

%

11.1

%

2008

 

 

N/A

 

N/A

 

N/A

 

N/A

 

 

 

$

7,794

 

81.0

%

20.9

%

0.2

%

11.5

%

 

U.S. Subprime First Lien

 

Year issued:

 

Net Par
Outstanding

 

Pool Factor(2)

 

Subordination (3)

 

Cumulative
Losses (4)

 

60+ Day
Delinquencies (5)

 

2005

 

$

3,723

 

39.3

%

59.9

%

3.2

%

40.9

%

2006

 

1,900

 

57.4

%

41.3

%

3.8

%

39.0

%

2007

 

550

 

63.1

%

41.5

%

4.0

%

40.0

%

2008

 

 

N/A

 

N/A

 

N/A

 

N/A

 

 

 

$

6,174

 

47.0

%

52.5

%

3.4

%

40.2

%

 

U.S. CMBS

 

Year issued:

 

Net Par
Outstanding

 

Pool Factor(2)

 

Subordination (3)

 

Cumulative
Losses (4)

 

60+ Day
Delinquencies (5)

 

2005

 

$

3,429

 

97.2

%

28.8

%

0.0

%

0.1

%

2006

 

1,418

 

98.6

%

30.5

%

0.0

%

0.1

%

2007

 

554

 

92.9

%

19.2

%

0.0

%

0.9

%

2008

 

 

N/A

 

N/A

 

N/A

 

N/A

 

 

 

$

5,401

 

97.2

%

28.3

%

0.0

%

0.1

%

 


(1) For this release, net par outstanding is based on values as of June 2008. Pool factor, subordination, cumulative losses and delinquency data is based on June 2008 information obtained from Intex, Bloomberg, and/or provided by the trustee and may be subject to restatement or correction.

(2) Pool factor is the percentage of net par outstanding divided by the original net par outstanding of the transactions at inception.

(3) Represents the sum of subordinate tranches and over-collateralization and does not include any benefit from excess interest collections that may be used to absorb losses.

(4) Cumulative losses are defined as net charge-offs on the underlying loan collateral divided by the original pool balance.

(5) 60+ day delinquencies are defined as loans that are greater than 60 days delinquent and also includes all loans that are in foreclosure, bankruptcy or REO divided by net par outstanding.

 

28



 

Assured Guaranty Ltd.

Credit Derivative Exposure Profile

(dollars in millions)

 

Financial Guaranty Direct Distribution of Credit Derivative Exposure by Rating

 

 

 

June 30, 2008

 

December 31, 2007

 

 

 

Net Par

 

 

 

Net Par

 

 

 

Ratings (1):

 

Outstanding

 

%

 

Outstanding

 

%

 

Super senior

 

$

40,880

 

53.0

%

$

34,328

 

49.1

%

AAA

 

29,144

 

37.8

%

33,318

 

47.6

%

AA

 

4,567

 

5.9

%

1,796

 

2.6

%

A

 

1,732

 

2.2

%

101

 

0.1

%

BBB

 

765

 

1.0

%

368

 

0.5

%

Below investment grade

 

100

 

0.1

%

26

 

 

Total exposures

 

$

77,186

 

100.0

%

$

69,936

 

100.0

%

 

Financial Guaranty Direct Distribution of Credit Derivative Exposure by Sector and Average Rating

 

 

 

June 30, 2008

 

December 31, 2007

 

Sector:

 

Net Par
Outstanding

 

Average
Rating (1)

 

Net Par
Outstanding

 

Average
Rating (1)

 

U.S. public finance

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

General obligation

 

$

429

 

AAA

 

$

431

 

AAA

 

Tax backed

 

69

 

BBB+

 

70

 

AAA

 

Investor-owned utilities

 

39

 

AAA

 

39

 

AAA

 

Municipal utilities

 

26

 

AAA

 

26

 

AAA

 

Total U.S. public finance

 

$

562

 

AA+

 

$

565

 

AAA

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

U.S. structured finance

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Pooled corporate obligations

 

$

29,396

 

AAA

 

$

28,229

 

AAA

 

Prime mortgage-backed and home equity

 

7,412

 

AAA

 

4,901

 

AAA

 

Subprime mortgage-backed and home equity

 

5,759

 

AA+

 

5,843

 

AAA

 

Commercial mortgage-backed securities

 

5,381

 

AAA

 

5,391

 

AAA

 

Commercial receivables

 

1,625

 

AA+

 

1,584

 

AAA

 

Consumer receivables

 

645

 

AAA

 

695

 

AA+

 

Structured credit

 

352

 

AA+

 

346

 

AAA

 

Insurance securitizations

 

100

 

AA

 

108

 

AAA

 

Other structured finance

 

49

 

AA

 

643

 

AAA

 

Total U.S. structured finance

 

$

50,719

 

AAA

 

$

47,740

 

AAA

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

International

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Mortgage-backed and home equity

 

$

9,086

 

AAA

 

$

6,032

 

AAA

 

Pooled corporate obligations

 

8,056

 

AAA

 

6,984

 

AAA

 

Infrastructure and pooled Infrastructure

 

6,390

 

AAA

 

6,404

 

AAA

 

Regulated utilities

 

786

 

AA-

 

462

 

AAA

 

Commercial mortgage-backed securities

 

644

 

AAA

 

832

 

AAA

 

Future flow

 

153

 

A-

 

173

 

A+

 

Insurance securitizations

 

41

 

BB

 

41

 

BBB-

 

Public finance

 

8

 

AAA

 

9

 

AAA

 

Other international structured finance

 

741

 

AAA

 

695

 

AAA

 

Total international

 

$

25,905

 

AAA

 

$

21,631

 

AAA

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Total exposures

 

$

77,186

 

AAA

 

$

69,936

 

AAA

 

 


(1) Assured’s internal rating. Assured’s scale is comparable to that of the nationally recognized rating agencies. The super senior category, which is not generally used by rating agencies, is used by the Company in instances where Assured’s AAA-rated exposure has additional credit enhancement due to either (1) the existence of another security rated AAA that is subordinated to Assured’s exposure or (2) Assured’s exposure benefits from a different form of credit enhancement that would pay any claims first in the event that any of the exposures incurs a loss, and such credit enhancement, in management’s opinion, causes Assured’s attachment point to be materially above the AAA attachment point.

 

Please refer to Glossary for description of selected types of U.S. public finance, U.S. structured finance and International obligations that the Company insures and reinsures.

 

29



 

Assured Guaranty Ltd.

Unrealized Gains (Losses) on Credit Derivatives

 

The components of the Company’s unrealized gain (loss) on credit derivatives as of June 30, 2008 are:

 

Asset Type

 

Par Outstanding
(in Billions)

 

Weighted
Average Credit
Rating

 

2Q-08
Unrealized Gain
(Loss) (in
millions)

 

Year-to-date
Unrealized Gain
(Loss) (in millions)

 

 

 

 

 

Corporate collateralized loan obligations

 

$

27.4

 

AAA

 

$

391.0

 

$

297.6

 

 

 

 

 

Market value CDOs

 

3.5

 

AAA

 

46.0

 

45.9

 

 

 

 

 

Trust Preferred securities

 

6.6

 

AAA

 

70.3

 

58.9

 

 

 

 

 

Total pooled corporate obligations

 

37.5

 

AAA

 

507.3

 

402.4

 

 

 

 

 

Commercial mortgage-backed securities

 

6.0

 

AAA

 

110.0

 

79.5

 

 

 

 

 

Residential mortgage-backed securities

 

22.3

 

AAA

 

212.5

 

160.5

 

 

 

 

 

Other(4)

 

11.5

 

AA-

 

(121.1

)

(173.5

)

 

 

 

 

Total

 

$

77.2

 

AAA

 

$

708.7

 

$

468.9

 

 

 

 

 

Re-Insurance Exposures written in CDS form

 

3.3

 

AAA

 

(0.2

)

(20.0

)

 

 

 

 

Grand Total

 

$

80.5

 

AAA

 

$

708.5

 

$

448.9

 

 

 

 

 

 

The following table presents additional details about the Company’s unrealized gain on credit derivatives associated with collateralized loan obligations, market value CDOs and trust preferred securities by asset type as of June 30, 2008 (1):

 

Asset Type

 

Original
Subordination

 

Current
Subordination

 

Par Outstanding
(in Billions)

 

Weighted Average
Credit Rating

 

2Q-08
Unrealized Gain
(Loss) (in millions)

 

Year-to-date
Unrealized Gain
(Loss) (in millions)

 

High yield corporates

 

36.3

%

34.3

%

$

24.0

 

AAA

 

$

363.9

 

$

283.4

 

Trust Preferred

 

45.9

%

43.7

%

6.6

 

AAA

 

70.3

 

58.9

 

Market value CDOs of corporates

 

41.4

%

39.1

%

3.5

 

AAA

 

46.0

 

45.9

 

Investment grade corporates

 

28.7

%

29.6

%

2.3

 

AAA

 

16.9

 

6.9

 

Commercial real estate

 

49.0

%

48.9

%

0.8

 

AAA

 

9.5

 

7.4

 

CDO of CDOs (corporate)

 

34.6

%

35.3

%

0.4

 

AAA

 

0.6

 

(0.1

)

Total

 

38.2

%

36.4

%

$

37.5

 

AAA

 

$

507.3

 

$

402.4

 

 

The following table presents additional details about the Company’s unrealized gain on credit derivatives associated with commercial mortgage-backed securities by year issued as of June 30, 2008 (2):

 

Year Issued

 

Original
Subordination

 

Current
Subordination

 

Par Outstanding
(in Billions)

 

Weighted Average
Credit Rating

 

2Q-08
Unrealized Gain
(Loss) (in millions)

 

Year-to-date
Unrealized Gain
(Loss) (in millions)

 

2004 and Prior

 

20.6

%

28.5

%

$

0.3

 

AAA

 

$

5.9

 

$

5.8

 

2005

 

27.8

%

28.8

%

3.4

 

AAA

 

65.8

 

50.6

 

2006

 

27.0

%

27.5

%

2.0

 

AAA

 

33.4

 

20.7

 

2007

 

35.8

%

35.9

%

0.2

 

AAA

 

4.9

 

2.4

 

2008

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Total

 

27.4

%

28.6

%

$

6.0

 

AAA

 

$

110.0

 

$

79.5

 

 

The following tables present additional details about the Company’s unrealized gain on credit derivatives associated with residential mortgage-backed securities by year issued and asset type as of June 30, 2008 (3):

 

Year Issued

 

Original
Subordination

 

Current
Subordination

 

Par Outstanding
(in Billions)

 

Weighted Average
Credit Rating

 

2Q-08
Unrealized Gain
(Loss) (in millions)

 

Year-to-date
Unrealized Gain
(Loss) (in millions)

 

2004 and Prior

 

5.2

%

11.3

%

$

0.5

 

AA-

 

$

7.1

 

$

(6.4

)

2005

 

23.9

%

46.7

%

5.4

 

AAA

 

64.3

 

78.7

 

2006

 

15.8

%

22.5

%

6.5

 

AAA

 

131.2

 

143.9

 

2007

 

16.1

%

18.0

%

9.8

 

AAA

 

9.9

 

(55.8

)

2008

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Total

 

17.6

%

26.1

%

$

22.3

 

AAA

 

$

212.5

 

$

160.5

 

 

Asset Type

 

Original
Subordination

 

Current
Subordination

 

Par Outstanding
(in Billions)

 

Weighted Average
Credit Rating

 

2Q-08
Unrealized Gain
(Loss) (in millions)

 

Year-to-date
Unrealized Gain
(Loss) (in millions)

 

Alt-A Loans - RMBS

 

20.3

%

23.6

%

$

6.7

 

AAA

 

$

(26.9

)

$

(67.4

)

Prime First Lien RMBS

 

10.4

%

12.2

%

9.8

 

AAA

 

64.1

 

25.2

 

Subprime RMBS

 

26.8

%

52.4

%

5.8

 

AA+

 

175.3

 

202.7

 

Total

 

17.6

%

26.1

%

$

22.3

 

AAA

 

$

212.5

 

$

160.5

 

 


(1) Corporate collateralized loan obligations, market value CDO’s, and trust preferred securities include all U.S. structured finance pooled corporate obligations and international pooled corporate obligations.

(2) Commercial mortgage-backed securities is comprised of commercial U.S. structured finance and commercial international mortgage backed securities.

(3) Residential mortgage-backed securities is comprised of prime and subprime U.S. mortgage-backed and home equity securities and residential international mortgage-backed and home equity securities.

(4) Other includes all other U.S. and international asset classes, such as commercial receivables, and international infrastructure and pooled infrastructure securities. The unrealized loss in other is primarily attributable to a change in the call date assumption for a particular wrapped UK utility transaction and a ratings downgrade on a film securitization transaction. Other also includes management’s estimate of credit related impairments for the Company’s credit derivative exposures.

 

30



 

Assured Guaranty Ltd.

CDOs of ABS Profile

(dollars in millions)

 

Financial Guaranty Direct Collateralized Debt Obligations of Asset-Backed Securities (CDOs of ABS)(1) Net Par Outstanding by Type of CDO, by Year Insured and by Collateral:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Type of Collateral as a Percent of Total Pool

 

Ratings as of
June 30, 2008

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Year

 

Legal

 

 

 

 

 

RMBS

 

Comm.

 

CDOs of
Investment

 

 

 

Total

 

U.S.

 

 

 

Original AAA

 

Original Sub-
ordination

 

Current Sub-
ordination

 

Insured

 

Final
Maturity(2)

 

Net Par
Outstanding

 

ABS

 

(Includes
Subprime)

 

MBS
(CMBS)(3)

 

Grade
Corporate

 

CDOs of
ABS

 

Collateral
Pool

 

Subprime
RMBS

 

S&P

 

Moody’s

 

Sub-
ordination

 

Below
Assured

 

Below
Assured

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

CDOs of Mezzanine ABS(3):

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2001

 

2017

 

$

113.6

 

0

%

0

%

100

%

0

%

0

%

100

%

0

%

AAA

 

Aaa

 

25.1

%

25.1

%

30.3

%

2001

 

2016

 

59.8

 

0

%

0

%

100

%

0

%

0

%

100

%

0

%

AAA

 

Aaa

 

28.1

%

28.1

%

40.1

%

2002

 

2017

 

124.9

 

0

%

0

%

100

%

0

%

0

%

100

%

0

%

AAA

 

Aaa

 

24.6

%

24.6

%

34.9

%

2002

 

2017

 

107.1

 

0

%

0

%

100

%

0

%

0

%

100

%

0

%

AAA

 

Aaa

 

22.1

%

22.1

%

28.6

%

2002

 

2017

 

88.7

 

0

%

0

%

100

%

0

%

0

%

100

%

0

%

AAA

 

Aaa

 

35.0

%

35.0

%

48.0

%

2002

 

2017

 

71.2

 

0

%

0

%

100

%

0

%

0

%

100

%

0

%

AAA

 

Aaa

 

24.0

%

24.0

%

32.2

%

2003

 

2018

 

124.1

 

0

%

0

%

100

%

0

%

0

%

100

%

0

%

AAA

 

Aaa

 

20.0

%

20.0

%

25.1

%

2003

 

2038

 

75.7

 

0

%

0

%

100

%

0

%

0

%

100

%

0

%

AAA

 

Aaa

 

23.0

%

38.0

%

47.6

%

2003

 

2018

 

49.9

 

0

%

0

%

100

%

0

%

0

%

100

%

0

%

AAA

 

Aaa

 

63.0

%

63.0

%

66.3

%

 

 

Subtotal:

 

$

815.0

 

0

%

0

%

100

%

0

%

0

%

100

%

0

%

AAA

 

Aaa

 

27.2

%

28.6

%

36.6

%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

CDOs of High Grade ABS(4):

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

No CDO of ABS business written

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

CDOs of Pooled AAA ABS(5):

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2003

 

2010

 

741.1

 

35

%

34

%

26

%

5

%

0

%

100

%

0

%

AAA

 

Aaa

 

0.0

%

12.5

%

12.5

%

 

 

Subtotal:

 

$

741.1

 

35

%

34

%

26

%

5

%

0

%

100

%

0

%

AAA

 

Aaa

 

0.0

%

12.5

%

12.5

%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Total:

 

$

1,556.0

 

17

%

16

%

65

%

2

%

0

%

100

%

0

%

AAA

 

Aaa

 

14.2

%

20.9

%

25.1

%

 


(1) A “CDO of ABS” is a collateralized debt obligation (CDO) transaction whose collateral pool consists primarily of asset-backed securities (ABS), including mortgage-backed securities (MBS).  ABS transactions securities generally represent an ownership interest in a trust that contains collateral supporting the notes.  Those interests are divided into several tranches that can have varying levels of subordination, credit protection triggers and credit ratings.

(2) “Legal Final Maturity” represents the final date for payment specified in the transaction documents and does not take into account prepayments that shorten the expected maturity and weighted average life.

(3) “CDOs of Mezzanine ABS” is a market term that refers to transactions where the underlying collateral at issuance is comprised primarily of mezzanine tranches rated BBB or lower.  The collateral underlying Assured’s exposure to CDOs of Mezzanine ABS is comprised of mezzanine tranches of CMBS transactions and senior unsecured debt issued by commercial property REITs.  The transactions to which Assured has exposure are static pools rather than actively managed transactions, and the collateral in these static pools was originated primarily in the period from 1997-2003. The collateral underlying Assured’s exposure to CDOs of Mezzanine ABS had weighted average ratings, based on rating information as of June 30, 2008, as follows: 18% AAA, 7% AA, 12% A, 45% BBB and 18% below investment grade (BIG).

(4) “CDOs of High Grade ABS” is a market term that refers to transactions where the underlying collateral at issuance is comprised of mezzanine tranches rated single-A or higher.

(5) “CDOs of Pooled AAA ABS” is a market term that refers to transactions where the underlying collateral at issuance is comprised of the senior-most AAA rated securities.  Assured’s exposure to CDOs of Pooled AAA ABS was rated, based on rating information as of June 30, 2008: 100% AAA.

 

31



 

Assured Guaranty Ltd.

Non-Investment Grade Exposures

As of June 30, 2008

(dollars in millions)

 

 

 

Weighted Average

 

Net Par

 

Average

 

Non-Investment Grade Exposures by Asset Type:

 

Remaining Life

 

Outstanding

 

Rating (1)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

U.S. public finance

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Municipal utilities

 

27.0

 

$

571

 

CCC

 

Healthcare

 

16.2

 

112

 

BB-

 

Tax backed

 

16.0

 

43

 

BB

 

General obligation

 

9.1

 

25

 

BB

 

Transportation

 

15.3

 

24

 

C

 

Housing

 

13.9

 

4

 

B

 

Higher education

 

12.4

 

1

 

BB+

 

Investor-owned utilities

 

9.0

 

0

 

BB

 

Total U.S. public finance

 

23.8

 

$

780

 

CCC+

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

U.S. structured finance

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Prime mortgage-backed and home equity

 

7.0

 

$

2,023

 

B

 

Subprime mortgage-backed and home equity

 

10.1

 

190

 

B

 

Commercial receivables

 

12.5

 

20

 

B

 

Pooled corporate obligations

 

2.6

 

18

 

B-

 

Other structured finance

 

16.5

 

17

 

B

 

Total U.S. structured finance

 

7.3

 

$

2,268

 

B

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

International

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Insurance securitizations

 

12.3

 

$

923

 

BB

 

Infrastructure and pooled infrastructure

 

10.1

 

88

 

B

 

Total international

 

12.1

 

$

1,011

 

BB

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Total non-investment grade exposures

 

11.7

 

$

4,060

 

B

 

 

Top Ten Non-Investment Grade Exposures as of June 30, 2008

 

Name or Description

 

Segment

 

Weighted Average
Remaining Life

 

Net Par
Outstanding

 

Average
Rating (1)

 

CWHEQ Revolving Home Equity Loan Trust 2007-D

 

Direct

 

6.4

 

$

679

 

BB

 

Countrywide Home Equity Loan Trust 2005-J Class 1 & 2

 

Direct

 

5.4

 

608

 

B

 

Jefferson County Alabama Sewer (2)

 

Reinsurance

 

27.3

 

560

 

CCC

 

Ballantyne Re PLC Class A-2 Floating Rate Notes

 

Direct

 

13.8

 

500

 

BB

 

Orkney Re II, PLC

 

Direct

 

10.6

 

423

 

BB

 

SACO I Trust 2005-GP1

 

Direct

 

2.8

 

98

 

CCC

 

American Home Mortgage Assets Trust 2007-3

 

Direct

 

2.8

 

97

 

CCC

 

Morgan Stanley Mortgage Loan Trust 2006-5AR

 

Direct

 

5.1

 

93

 

BB

 

Trover Clinic Foundation

 

Direct

 

18.9

 

77

 

BB

 

Domestic Residential Mortgage-backed HELOC transaction

 

Reinsurance

 

6.0

 

73

 

CCC

 

Total

 

 

 

11.6

 

$

3,209

 

B+

 

 


(1) Assured’s internal rating.  Assured’s scale is comparable to that of the nationally recognized rating agencies.  The super senior category, which is not generally used by rating agencies, is used by the Company in instances where Assured’s AAA-rated exposure has additional credit enhancement due to either (1) the existence of another security rated AAA that is subordinated to Assured’s exposure or (2) Assured’s exposure benefits from a different form of credit enhancement that would pay any claims first in the event that any of the exposures incurs a loss, and such credit enhancement, in management’s opinion, causes Assured’s attachment point to be materially above the AAA attachment point.

 

(2) $103 million of this exposure was recaptured after the commutation of the reinsurance contract as of July 25, 2008.

 

Please refer to Glossary for description of selected types of U.S. public finance, U.S. structured finance and International obligations that the Company insures and reinsures.

 

32



 

Assured Guaranty Ltd.

Closely Monitored Credits (“CMC”)

(dollars in millions)

 

Net Par Outstanding by Credit Monitoring Category (1)

 

 

 

June 30, 2008

 

Description:

 

Net Par
Outstanding

 

%

 

Number of Credits
in Category

 

Fundamentally sound risk

 

$

226,254

 

98.2

%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Closely monitored credits:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Category 1

 

1,460

 

0.6

%

32

 

Category 2

 

1,972

 

0.9

%

18

 

Category 3

 

661

 

0.3

%

41

 

Category 4

 

20

 

 

16

 

CMC Total

 

4,114

 

1.8

%

107

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Other below investment grade risk

 

34

 

 

52

 

Total

 

$

230,402

 

100.0

%

 

 

 

 

 

December 31, 2007

 

Description:

 

Net Par
Outstanding

 

%

 

Number of Credits
in Category

 

Fundamentally sound risk

 

$

198,133

 

98.9

%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Closely monitored credits:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Category 1

 

1,288

 

0.6

%

36

 

Category 2

 

743

 

0.4

%

12

 

Category 3

 

71

 

 

16

 

Category 4

 

24

 

 

16

 

CMC Total

 

2,126

 

1.1

%

80

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Other below investment grade risk

 

20

 

 

46

 

Total

 

$

200,279

 

100.0

%

 

 

 


(1)  Assured’s surveillance department is responsible for monitoring the Company’s portfolio of credits and maintains a list of closely monitored credits. The closely monitored credits are divided into four categories: Category 1 (low priority; fundamentally sound, greater than normal risk); Category 2 (medium priority; weakening credit profile, may result in loss); Category 3 (high priority; claim/default probable, case reserve established); Category 4 (claim paid, case reserve established for future payments). The closely monitored credits include all below investment grade (BIG) exposures where there is a material amount of exposure (generally greater than $10.0 million) or a material risk of the Company incurring a loss greater than $0.5 million. The closely monitored credits also include investment grade (IG) risks where credit quality is deteriorating and where, in the view of the Company, there is significant potential that the risk quality will fall below investment grade.

 

33



 

Assured Guaranty Ltd.

Largest Exposures by Sector (Part 1 of 4)

As of June 30, 2008

(dollars in millions)

 

25 Largest U.S. Public Finance Exposures

 

 

 

Net Par

 

 

 

 

 

Credit Name:

 

Outstanding

 

Rating(1)

 

 

 

State of California General Obligation & Leases

 

$

1,568

 

A+

 

 

 

State of New Jersey General Obligation & Leases

 

1,183

 

AA-

 

 

 

New York City General Obligation & Leases

 

1,099

 

A+

 

 

 

City of Chicago General Obligation & Leases

 

996

 

AA-

 

 

 

Los Angeles Unified School District

 

906

 

AA

 

 

 

State of New York General Obligation & Leases

 

857

 

A+

 

 

 

San Francisco Airport Commission

 

847

 

A

 

 

 

State of Washington General Obligation

 

836

 

AA

 

 

 

Denver International Airport System

 

795

 

BBB-

 

 

 

Commonwealth of Puerto Rico General Obligation & Leases

 

794

 

BBB-

 

 

 

Commonwealth of Massachusetts General Obligation & Bay Transportation

 

793

 

A

 

 

 

Miami-Dade County Florida Aviation Authority

 

769

 

A

 

 

 

Florida State General Obligation

 

680

 

AA

 

 

 

Port Authority of New York & New Jersey

 

651

 

AA-

 

 

 

Metropolitan Transportation Authority (New York) - Transportation Revenue

 

651

 

A

 

 

 

District of Columbia General Obligation

 

635

 

A

 

 

 

Puerto Rico Highway & Transportation Authority

 

628

 

BBB

 

 

 

Michigan State General Obligation

 

626

 

AA+

 

 

 

Hawaii State General Obligation

 

621

 

AA-

 

 

 

Long Island Power Authority

 

609

 

A-

 

 

 

Pennsylvania State Turnpike Commission

 

608

 

A+

 

 

 

New York City Municipal Water Finance Authority

 

586

 

AA

 

 

 

Jefferson County, Alabama Sewer Enterprise

 

560

 

CCC

 

 

 

Miami-Dade County School Board

 

548

 

A

 

 

 

Chicago Public Building Commission - Chicago Board of Education

 

533

 

A

 

 

 

Total top 25 U.S. public finance exposures

 

$

19,380

 

 

 

 

 

 

10 Largest Healthcare Exposures

 

 

 

Net Par

 

 

 

 

 

Credit Name:

 

Outstanding

 

Rating(1)

 

State

 

Iowa Health System

 

$

418

 

AA-

 

IA

 

Methodist Health System

 

305

 

A-

 

TN

 

Essentia Health

 

262

 

A-

 

MN

 

Integris Health, Inc.

 

258

 

AA

 

OK

 

Catholic Healthcare West

 

235

 

A

 

CA

 

Children’s Memorial Hospital

 

215

 

A-

 

IL

 

Meridian Health System Obligated Group

 

213

 

A-

 

NJ

 

Hackensack Medical Center

 

207

 

A-

 

NJ

 

Lifebridge Health

 

207

 

A

 

MD

 

Centracare Health System

 

196

 

A

 

MN

 

Total top 10 healthcare exposures

 

$

2,514

 

 

 

 

 

 


(1) Assured’s internal rating.  Assured’s scale is comparable to that of the nationally recognized rating agencies.  The super senior category, which is not generally used by rating agencies, is used by the Company in instances where Assured’s AAA-rated exposure has additional credit enhancement due to either (1) the existence of another security rated AAA that is subordinated to Assured’s exposure or (2) Assured’s exposure benefits from a different form of credit enhancement that would pay any claims first in the event that any of the exposures incurs a loss, and such credit enhancement, in management’s opinion, causes Assured’s attachment point to be materially above the AAA attachment point.

 

34



 

Assured Guaranty Ltd.

Largest Exposures by Sector (Part 2 of 4)

As of June 30, 2008

(dollars in millions)

 

50 Largest U.S. Structured Finance Exposures

 

 

 

Net Par

 

 

 

Credit

 

Credit Name:

 

Outstanding

 

Rating(1)

 

Enhancement

 

Deutsche Alt-A Securities Mortgage Loan 2007-2

 

$

1,071

 

AAA

 

10.54%

 

Discover Card Master Trust I Series A

 

1,000

 

AAA / Super senior

 

57.50%

 

Private - CDO

 

998

 

AAA

 

33.17%

 

Field Point III & IV, Limited

 

810

 

AA-

 

31.44%

 

Prospect Funding I LLC

 

775

 

AAA

 

33.72%

 

Goldentree Credit Opportunities Financing I

 

764

 

AAA

 

50.36%

 

Ares Enhanced Credit Opportunities Fund

 

750

 

AAA

 

45.12%

 

Private - CDO

 

716

 

AAA

 

20.97%

 

Chrysler Retail Auto Loan Receivables Class-A

 

704

 

A

 

8.82%

 

MortgageIt Securities Corp. Mortgage Loan 2007-2

 

696

 

AAA / Super senior

 

11.14%

 

CWHEQ Revolving Home Equity Loan Trust 2007-D

 

679

 

BB

 

0.00%

 

Field Point I & II, Limited

 

672

 

AA-

 

29.74%

 

Private RMBS Re-Remic

 

668

 

AAA / Super senior

 

26.69%

 

Private - CDO

 

660

 

AAA

 

40.50%

 

Applebee’s Enterprises LLC

 

645

 

BBB-

 

36.36%

 

Private RMBS Re-Remic

 

623

 

AAA / Super senior

 

27.57%

 

Sandelman Finance 2006-1 Limited

 

623

 

AA

 

34.40%

 

Citibank Omni Master Trust

 

614

 

AAA / Super senior

 

30.0%/34.0%

 

Countrywide Home Equity Loan Trust 2005-J Class 1 & 2

 

608

 

B

 

0.00%

 

Private RMBS Re-Remic

 

607

 

AAA / Super senior

 

27.09%

 

Private RMBS Re-Remic

 

604

 

AAA / Super senior

 

28.19%

 

Private Structured Credit

 

600

 

BBB+

 

Private

 

Private - CDO

 

551

 

AAA / Super senior

 

42.26%

 

Chrysler Retail Auto Loan Receivables Class A

 

550

 

AAA

 

8.82%

 

Deutsche Alt-A Securities Mortgage Loan 2007-3

 

535

 

AAA / Super senior

 

16.39%

 

Liberty CLO Ltd

 

530

 

AAA / Super senior

 

39.20%

 

Aaa Trust 2007-2

 

506

 

AAA / Super senior

 

43.70%

 

Private RMBS Transaction

 

497

 

A-

 

13.94%

 

LIICA Holdings, LLC

 

495

 

AA

 

10.26%

 

Private RMBS Re-Remic

 

486

 

AAA / Super senior

 

23.40%

 

Private - CDO

 

486

 

AAA

 

46.57%

 

Impac CMB Trust Series 2007-A

 

451

 

A+

 

8.92%

 

SLM Private Credit Student Loan Trust 2007

 

450

 

AAA

 

10.37%

 

Synthetic CDO - IG Corporate

 

438

 

AAA / Super senior

 

30.00%

 

Synthetic CDO - IG Corporate

 

438

 

AAA / Super senior

 

30.00%

 

Synthetic CDO - IG Corporate

 

438

 

AAA / Super senior

 

30.00%

 

McDonnell Loan Opportunity Fund II

 

400

 

AAA

 

20.78%

 

Private RMBS Re-Remic

 

400

 

AAA / Super senior

 

35.79%

 

SLM Student Loan Trust 2007

 

392

 

AAA

 

3.00%

 

Wasatch CLO, Ltd.

 

389

 

AAA

 

23.10%

 

Daimler Chrysler 2007-A Lease Trust

 

387

 

AAA

 

n/a

 

Newstar Credit Opportunities Funding II

 

380

 

AA

 

20.75%

 

Southfork CLO Ltd. Series 2005-A1 Class A1G

 

380

 

AAA / Super senior

 

31.28%

 

Cent CDO XI Limited

 

373

 

AAA

 

22.61%

 

SLM Private Credit Student Loan Trust 2006

 

356

 

AAA

 

10.23%

 

ACS 2007-1 Pass Through Trust G-1

 

355

 

A

 

39.40%

 

Private - CDO

 

338

 

AAA / Super senior

 

42.08%

 

Synthetic CDO - IG Corporate

 

335

 

AAA / Super senior

 

30.00%

 

United Commercial Mortgage Securities 2007-1

 

328

 

A

 

7.66%

 

Comstock Funding Ltd

 

326

 

AAA

 

28.21%

 

Total top 50 U.S. structured finance exposures

 

$

27,876

 

 

 

 

 

 


(1) Assured’s internal rating.  Assured’s scale is comparable to that of the nationally recognized rating agencies.  The super senior category, which is not generally used by rating agencies, is used by the Company in instances where Assured’s AAA-rated exposure has additional credit enhancement due to either (1) the existence of another security rated AAA that is subordinated to Assured’s exposure or (2) Assured’s exposure benefits from a different form of credit enhancement that would pay any claims first in the event that any of the exposures incurs a loss, and such credit enhancement, in management’s opinion, causes Assured’s attachment point to be materially above the AAA attachment point.

 

35



 

Assured Guaranty Ltd.

Largest Exposures by Sector (Part 3 of 4)

As of June 30, 2008

(dollars in millions)

 

25 Largest International Exposures

 

 

 

Net Par

 

 

 

Credit Name:

 

Outstanding

 

Rating(1)

 

Prime European RMBS

 

$

1,591

 

AAA / Super senior

 

Permanent Master Issuer PLC

 

1,453

 

AAA

 

Arkle Master Issuer PLC

 

1,450

 

AAA

 

Gracechurch Mortgage Financing PLC

 

1,447

 

AAA

 

Granite Master Issuer PLC

 

1,255

 

AAA

 

Graphite Mortgages PLC Provide Graphite 2005-2

 

1,235

 

AAA / Super senior

 

Essential Public Infrastructure Capital II

 

1,139

 

AAA / Super senior

 

Essential Public Infrastructure Capital III

 

1,115

 

AAA / Super senior

 

International Infrastructure Pool

 

844

 

AAA / Super senior

 

International Infrastructure Pool

 

844

 

AAA / Super senior

 

International Infrastructure Pool

 

844

 

AAA / Super senior

 

Taberna Europe CDO II PLC

 

803

 

AAA / Super senior

 

Paragon Mortgages (No.13) PLC

 

768

 

AAA

 

Synthetic CDO - IG ABS

 

741

 

AAA / Super senior

 

Stichting Profile Securitisation I

 

675

 

AAA / Super senior

 

United Utilities Water PLC

 

674

 

A

 

Global Senior Loan Index Fund 1 B.V.

 

605

 

AAA / Super senior

 

Nemus Funding No.1 PLC

 

603

 

AAA / Super senior

 

National Grid Gas PLC

 

598

 

A

 

Harvest CLO III

 

543

 

AAA

 

Northumbrian Water PLC

 

542

 

BBB+

 

National Grid Electricity Transmission PLC

 

539

 

A

 

Taberna Europe CDO I PLC

 

506

 

AAA / Super senior

 

Ballantyne Re Plc Class A-2 Floating Rate Notes

 

500

 

BB

 

RMF Euro CDO V PLC

 

498

 

AAA

 

Total top 25 international exposures

 

$

21,812

 

 

 

 


(1) Assured’s internal rating.  Assured’s scale is comparable to that of the nationally recognized rating agencies.  The super senior category, which is not generally used by rating agencies, is used by the Company in instances where Assured’s AAA-rated exposure has additional credit enhancement due to either (1) the existence of another security rated AAA that is subordinated to Assured’s exposure or (2) Assured’s exposure benefits from a different form of credit enhancement that would pay any claims first in the event that any of the exposures incurs a loss, and such credit enhancement, in management’s opinion, causes Assured’s attachment point to be materially above the AAA attachment point.

 

36



 

Assured Guaranty Ltd.

Largest Exposures by Sector (Part 4 of 4)

As of June 30, 2008

(dollars in millions)

 

10 Largest Residential Mortgage Servicers Exposures

 

 

 

Net Par

 

Servicer:

 

Outstanding

 

Countrywide Home Loans, Inc.

 

$

4,670

 

Residential Funding Corporation

 

2,966

 

Northern Rock PLC

 

2,489

 

Wells Fargo Home Mortgage, Inc.

 

2,486

 

European Mortgage Servicer (Private Transaction)

 

1,591

 

Halifax PLC

 

1,458

 

Cheltenham & Gloucester PLC

 

1,450

 

Barclays Bank PLC

 

1,447

 

EMC Mortgage Corp

 

784

 

Paragon Finance PLC

 

768

 

Total top 10 residential mortgage servicers exposures

 

$

20,109

 

 

37



 

Assured Guaranty Ltd.

Consolidated Capital and Claims Paying Resources

(dollars in millions)

 

 

 

As of June 30, 2008

 

As of December 31, 2007

 

 

 

Assured
Guaranty
Corp.

 

Assured
Guaranty Re
Ltd. (1)

 

Consolidated

 

Assured
Guaranty
Corp.

 

Assured
Guaranty Re
Ltd. (1)

 

Consolidated

 

Statutory surplus and reserves

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Unearned premium reserve (2)

 

$

512

 

$

741

 

$

1,253

 

$

302

 

$

629

 

$

931

 

Contingency reserve

 

651

 

 

651

 

582

 

 

582

 

Policyholders’ surplus

 

459

 

1,266

 

1,725

 

400

 

1,097

 

1,497

 

Loss & loss adjustment expense reserves (3)

 

40

 

22

 

62

 

12

 

18

 

30

 

Total policyholders’ surplus and reserves

 

$

1,662

 

$

2,029

 

$

3,691

 

$

1,296

 

$

1,744

 

$

3,040

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Claims paying resources

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Policyholders’ surplus

 

$

459

 

$

1,266

 

$

1,725

 

$

400

 

$

1,097

 

$

1,497

 

Contingency reserve

 

651

 

 

651

 

582

 

 

582

 

Qualified statutory capital

 

1,110

 

1,266

 

2,376

 

982

 

1,097

 

2,079

 

Unearned premium reserve (2)

 

512

 

741

 

1,253

 

302

 

629

 

931

 

Loss and loss adjustment expense reserves (3)

 

40

 

22

 

62

 

12

 

18

 

30

 

Total policyholders’ surplus and reserves

 

1,662

 

2,029

 

3,691

 

1,296

 

1,744

 

3,040

 

Present value of installment premium (d)

 

655

 

379

 

1,035

 

554

 

366

 

920

 

Standby line of credit/stop loss

 

280

 

200

 

480

 

280

 

200

 

480

 

Total claims paying resources

 

$

2,597

 

$

2,608

 

$

5,206

 

$

2,130

 

$

2,310

 

$

4,440

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Net par insured outstanding

 

$

112,311

 

$

118,178

 

$

230,402

 

$

94,127

 

$

106,253

 

$

200,279

 

Net debt service outstanding

 

$

161,478

 

$

195,575

 

$

356,959

 

$

128,351

 

$

174,173

 

$

302,413

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Ratios:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Net par insured to statutory capital

 

101:1

 

93:1

 

97:1

 

96:1

 

97:1

 

96:1

 

Capital ratio (4)

 

145:1

 

154:1

 

150:1

 

131:1

 

159:1

 

145:1

 

Financial resources ratio (5)

 

62:1

 

75:1

 

69:1

 

60:1

 

75:1

 

68:1

 

 


(1)  Assured Guaranty Re Ltd. (AG Re) numbers are the Company’s estimate of U.S. statutory as the company files Bermuda statutory financial statements.

(2)  Unearned premium reserve for AG Re is U.S. GAAP based, includes unearned revenues on credit derivatives and is net of prepaid reinsurance premiums.

(3)  Loss and loss adjustment reserves for AG Re are U.S. GAAP based, includes loss reserves for credit derivatives and is net of reinsurance recoverable and portfolio reserves.

(4)  The capital ratio is calculated by dividing net par and interest insured by qualified statutory capital.

(5)  The financial resources ratio is calculated by dividing net par and interest insured by total claims paying resources.

 

Note: Please refer to endnotes for explanation of non-GAAP financial measures [net present value of estimated future installment premiums in force (d)].

 

38



 

Assured Guaranty Ltd.

Summary Financial and Statistical Data

(dollars in millions, except per share amounts)

 

 

 

 

 

Year Ended December 31,

 

 

 

YTD 2Q-2008

 

2007

 

2006

 

2005

 

GAAP Summary Income Statement Data

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Gross written premiums

 

$

421.6

 

$

424.5

 

$

261.3

 

$

192.1

 

Net earned premiums

 

98.5

 

159.3

 

144.8

 

139.4

 

Realized gains and other settlements on credit derivatives

 

59.4

 

74.0

 

73.9

 

57.1

 

Net investment income

 

76.8

 

128.1

 

111.5

 

96.8

 

Total expenses

 

181.6

 

161.4

 

150.4

 

70.7

 

Income (loss) before provision for income taxes

 

521.7

 

(463.0

)

190.0

 

229.6

 

Net income (loss)

 

376.0

 

(303.3

)

159.7

 

188.4

 

Operating income (b)

 

45.0

 

178.0

 

157.2

 

190.0

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Net income (loss) per diluted share

 

$

4.35

 

$

(4.46

)

$

2.15

 

$

2.53

 

Operating income per diluted share

 

$

0.52

 

$

2.57

 

$

2.12

 

$

2.55

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Financial Ratios:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Loss and LAE ratio (e)

 

64.5

%

3.4

%

(3.3

)%

(35.0

)%

Expense ratio (e)

 

47.2

%

55.8

%

59.2

%

58.9

%

Combined ratio (e)

 

111.7

%

59.2

%

55.9

%

23.9

%

GAAP Summary Balance Sheet Data (End of Period)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Total investments and cash

 

$

3,715.5

 

$

3,147.9

 

$

2,469.9

 

$

2,256.0

 

Total assets

 

4,527.6

 

3,762.9

 

2,931.6

 

2,689.8

 

Unearned premium reserves

 

1,207.4

 

887.2

 

631.0

 

524.6

 

Loss and LAE reserves

 

204.0

 

125.6

 

115.9

 

117.4

 

Senior notes

 

197.4

 

197.4

 

197.4

 

197.3

 

Series A Enhanced Junior Subordinated Debentures

 

149.8

 

149.7

 

149.7

 

 

Shareholders’ equity

 

2,242.4

 

1,666.6

 

1,650.8

 

1,661.5

 

Book value per share

 

$

24.66

 

$

20.85

 

$

24.44

 

$

22.22

 

Other Financial Information:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Net debt service outstanding (end of period)

 

$

356,959

 

$

302,413

 

$

180,174

 

$

145,694

 

Gross debt service outstanding (end of period)

 

363,789

 

307,657

 

181,503

 

148,836

 

Net par outstanding (end of period)

 

230,402

 

200,279

 

132,296

 

102,465

 

Gross par outstanding (end of period)

 

235,227

 

204,809

 

133,303

 

105,258

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Consolidated qualified statutory capital

 

2,376

 

2,079

 

1,658

 

1,545

 

Consolidated policyholders’ surplus and reserves

 

3,691

 

3,040

 

2,374

 

2,182

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Ratios:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Par insured to statutory capital

 

97:1

 

96:1

 

80:1

 

66:1

 

Capital ratio(1)

 

150:1

 

145:1

 

109:1

 

94:1

 

Financial resources ratio(2)

 

69:1

 

68:1

 

53:1

 

48:1

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Gross debt service written:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

U.S. public finance

 

$

44,975

 

$

66,190

 

$

13,261

 

$

13,335

 

U.S. structured finance

 

9,840

 

42,414

 

28,902

 

16,724

 

International

 

6,132

 

24,971

 

17,979

 

5,729

 

Total gross debt service written

 

$

60,947

 

$

133,575

 

$

60,142

 

$

35,788

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Net debt service written

 

60,029

 

129,872

 

59,775

 

35,440

 

Net par written

 

37,557

 

84,686

 

50,541

 

26,020

 

Gross par written

 

38,083

 

88,117

 

50,892

 

26,320

 

 


(1)  The capital ratio is calculated by dividing net par and interest insured by qualified statutory capital.

(2)  The financial resources ratio is calculated by dividing net par and interest insured by total claims paying resources.

 

Note: Please refer to endnotes for explanation of non-GAAP financial measures [operating income (b) and loss and loss adjustment expense ratio, expense ratio and combined ratio (e)].

 

39



 

Assured Guaranty Ltd.

Appendix

Credit Derivatives

(dollars in millions)

 

As part of its financial guaranty (FG) insurance business, the Company selects, structures and sells credit protection through credit default swaps (“CDS”) in the institutional fixed income markets. The Company generates revenues through the premiums paid by third parties to insure against the risk of default on the assets underlying the CDS. In this appendix, the Company has presented the credit swap premiums in its financial guaranty direct and financial guaranty reinsurance segments, which were included in prior period financial information in Gross written premiums, Net written premiums, Net earned premiums, Loss and loss adjustment expenses (recoveries) and Acquisition Costs. The effect of these credit derivative premiums has been included in “Realized gains and other settlements on credit derivatives” and “Unrealized gains (losses) on credit derivatives” in income statements. Management’s decision to reclassify these amounts was based on evolving financial guaranty industry practice.  Management believes that this reclassification will increase comparability of its financial statements with other companies who participate in the CDS market. These reclassifications had no impact on underwriting gain (loss), loss and loss adjustment expense ratio, expense ratio, combined ratio, operating income or net income.

 

 

 

1Q-07

 

2Q-07

 

3Q-07

 

4Q-07

 

Credit derivatives included in:

 

FG Direct

 

FG
Reinsurance

 

Total FG

 

FG Direct

 

FG
Reinsurance

 

Total FG

 

FG Direct

 

FG
Reinsurance

 

Total FG

 

FG Direct

 

FG
Reinsurance

 

Total FG

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Gross written premiums

 

$

17.4

 

$

 

$

17.4

 

$

17.1

 

$

 

$

17.1

 

$

20.9

 

$

 

$

20.9

 

$

26.0

 

$

 

$

26.0

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Net written premiums

 

17.0

 

 

17.0

 

16.4

 

 

16.4

 

19.9

 

 

19.9

 

25.0

 

 

25.0

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Net earned premiums (1)

 

16.8

 

 

16.8

 

16.3

 

 

16.3

 

17.6

 

 

17.6

 

22.0

 

 

22.0

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Loss and loss adjustment expenses (recoveries):

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Net credit derivative losses paid (recovered) and payable (recoverable) (1)

 

(0.0

)

 

(0.0

)

(0.0

)

 

(0.0

)

(0.0

)

 

(0.0

)

(0.0

)

 

(0.0

)

Incurred losses on credit derivatives (2)

 

0.6

 

 

0.6

 

0.7

 

 

0.7

 

1.8

 

 

1.8

 

0.5

 

 

0.5

 

Total loss and loss adjustment expenses (recoveries)

 

0.5

 

 

0.5

 

0.7

 

 

0.7

 

1.7

 

 

1.7

 

0.5

 

 

0.5

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Acquisition costs (1)

 

0.0

 

 

0.0

 

(0.1

)

 

(0.1

)

0.1

 

 

0.1

 

(0.2

)

 

(0.2

)

 

 

 

1Q-08

 

2Q-08

 

 

 

 

 

Credit derivatives included in:

 

FG Direct

 

FG
Reinsurance

 

Total FG

 

FG Direct

 

FG
Reinsurance

 

Total FG

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Gross written premiums

 

$

28.8

 

$

5.1

 

$

33.8

 

$

33.4

 

$

1.1

 

$

34.5

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Net written premiums

 

27.6

 

5.1

 

32.7

 

32.3

 

1.1

 

33.4

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Net earned premiums (1)

 

27.3

 

0.5

 

27.8

 

30.6

 

0.8

 

31.5

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Loss and loss adjustment expenses (recoveries):

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Net credit derivative losses paid (recovered) and payable (recoverable) (1)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Incurred losses on credit derivatives (2)

 

3.2

 

 

3.2

 

5.6

 

 

5.6

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Total loss and loss adjustment expenses (recoveries)

 

3.2

 

 

3.2

 

5.6

 

 

5.6

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Acquisition costs (1)

 

(0.1

)

(0.2

)

(0.2

)

0.2

 

(0.3

)

(0.1

)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 


(1) Included in “Realized gains and other settlements on credit derivatives” in income statements.

(2) Included in “Unrealized gains (losses) on credit derivatives” in income statements.

 

40



 

Glossary

 

Below are the brief descriptions of selected types of U.S. public finance, U.S. structured finance and International obligations that the Company insures and reinsures. For a more complete description, please refer to Assured Guaranty Ltd.’s 10-K report.

 

Other public finance: primarily includes government insured student loans, government-sponsored project finance and structured municipal which includes excess of loss reinsurance on portfolios of municipal credits.

 

Pooled corporate obligations are structured financings backed by a pool of debt obligations. These financings are typically structured in multiple tranches (layers) from equity (first loss) through super senior (high excess). Losses on defaulted pool assets are allocated successively first to the equity tranche then to higher rated tranches.

 

Mortgage-backed and home equity: includes individual and repackaged securities backed by either prime, Alt-A, or subprime first and second lien mortgages.

 

Consumer receivables: principally includes auto loan receivables and credit card receivables.

 

Commercial mortgage-backed securities: includes individual and repackaged securities backed by commercial mortgage-backed securities.

 

Commercial receivables: includes equipment loans or leases, fleet auto financings and franchise loans.

 

Structured credit: includes whole business securitizations and intellectual property securitizations. Whole business securitizations are obligations backed by revenue-producing assets sold to a limited-purpose company by an operating company, including franchise agreements, lease agreements, intellectual property and real property.

 

Other structured finance: includes, manufactured housing, collateralized debt obligations of asset-backed securities and other securitizations not included in other asset classes.

 



 

Endnotes related to non-GAAP financial measures discussed in the financial supplement:

 

(a) Present value of insurance and credit derivative gross written premiums or PVP, which is a non-GAAP financial measure, is defined as gross upfront and installment premiums received and the present value of gross estimated future installment premiums, on insurance and credit derivative contracts written in the current period, discounted at 6% per year. Management believes that PVP is a useful measure for management, investors and analysts because it permits the evaluation of the value of new business production for Assured by taking into account the value of estimated future installment premiums on all new contracts underwritten in a reporting period, whether in insurance or credit derivative contract form, which GAAP gross premiums written and the net credit derivative premiums received and receivable portion of net realized gains and other settlement on credit derivatives (“credit derivative premiums”) does not adequately measure. Actual future net earned or written premiums and credit derivative premiums may differ from PVP due to factors such as prepayments, amortizations, refundings, contract terminations or defaults that may or may not be influenced by market interest rates, refinancing or refunding activity, prepayment speeds, policy changes or terminations, credit defaults, or other factors that management cannot control or predict. This measure should not be viewed as a substitute for gross written premiums determined in accordance with GAAP.

 

(b) Operating income, which is a non-GAAP financial measure, is defined as net income (loss) excluding i) after-tax realized gains (losses) on investments and ii) after-tax unrealized gains (losses) on credit derivatives and the fair value adjustment of the Company’s committed capital securities, other than the Company’s net estimate of after-tax incurred case and portfolio loss and loss adjusted expense reserves for credit derivatives. Operating return on equity (ROE) represents operating income as a percentage of average shareholders’ equity, excluding accumulated other comprehensive income and after-tax unrealized gains (losses) on credit derivatives. Management believes that operating income and operating ROE are useful measures for management, investors and analysts because the presentation of operating income and operating ROE enhance the understanding of Assured’s results of operations by highlighting the underlying profitability of Assured’s business. Realized gains (losses) on investments and unrealized gains (losses) on credit derivatives and the fair value adjustment of the Company’s committed capital securities, other than the portion attributable to the Company’s net estimate of incurred case and portfolio loss and loss adjustment expense reserves for credit derivatives, are excluded because the amount of both of these gains (losses) is heavily influenced by, and fluctuates, in part, according to market interest rates, credit spreads and other factors that management cannot control or predict. These measures should not be viewed as substitutes for net income (loss) or ROE determined in accordance with GAAP.

 

(c) Adjusted book value, which is a non-GAAP financial measure, is defined as shareholders’ equity (book value) plus the after-tax value of the unearned premium reserve net of prepaid reinsurance premiums, the after-tax value of unearned premium on credit derivatives net of prepaid reinsurance premiums and the after-tax net present value of estimated future installment premiums in force, less future ceding commissions, discounted at 6%, less after-tax deferred acquisition costs. Management believes that adjusted book value is a useful measure for management, equity analysts and investors because the calculation of adjusted book value permits an evaluation of the net present value of the Company’s in-force premiums and shareholders’ equity. The premiums described above will be earned in future periods, but may differ materially from the estimated amounts used in determining current adjusted book value due to changes in market interest rates, refinancing or refunding activity, prepayment speeds, policy changes or terminations, credit defaults and other factors that management cannot control or predict. This measure should not be viewed as a substitute for book value determined in accordance with GAAP.

 

(d) Net present value of estimated future installment premiums in force, which is a non-GAAP financial measure, is defined as the present value of estimated future installment premiums from our financial guaranty and credit derivative in-force books of business, net of reinsurance and discounted at 6%. Management believes that net present value of estimated future installment premiums in-force is a useful measure for management, investors and analysts because it permits an evaluation of the value of future estimated financial guaranty and credit derivative installment premiums. Estimated future premiums may change from period to period due to changes in par outstanding, maturity, or other factors that management cannot control or predict that result from market interest rates, refinancing or refunding activity, prepayment speeds, policy changes or terminations, credit defaults, or other factors. There is no comparable GAAP financial measure.

 

(e) Loss ratio, which is a non-GAAP financial measure, is defined as loss and loss adjustment expenses (recoveries) plus the Company’s net estimate of credit derivative incurred case and portfolio loss and loss adjustment expense reserves, which is included in unrealized gains (losses) on credit derivatives, plus net credit derivative losses (recoveries), which is included in realized gains and other settlements on credit derivatives, divided by net earned premiums plus net credit derivative premiums earned, which is included in realized gains and other settlements on credit derivatives. Expense ratio is calculated by dividing the sum of ceding commissions expense (income), profit commission expense, acquisition costs and operating expenses by net earned premiums plus net credit derivative premiums earned, which is included in realized gains and other settlements on credit derivatives. Combined ratio, which is a non-GAAP financial measure, is the sum of the loss ratio and the expense ratio. Management believes that loss, expense and combined ratios are useful measures for management, investors and analysts to measure the Company’s underwriting performance. There are no comparable GAAP financial measures.

 

For adjusted book value, net present value of estimated future installment premiums in force, and PVP, Assured uses 6% as the present value discount rate because it is the approximate taxable equivalent yield on Assured’s investment portfolio for the periods presented.

 



 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Contacts:

 

 

 

 

 

Equity Investors and Media

 

 

Sabra Purtill

 

 

Managing Director, Global Communications

 

 

and Investor Relations

 

 

(212) 408-6044

 

 

spurtill@assuredguaranty.com

 

 

 

 

 

Ross Aron

 

 

Associate, Investor Relations

 

 

(212) 261-5509

 

 

raron@assuredguaranty.com

 

 

 

Assured Guaranty Ltd.

 

Fixed Income Investors

30 Woodbourne Avenue

 

Michael Walker

Hamilton HM 08

 

Director, Fixed Income Investor Relations

Bermuda

 

(212) 261-5575

www.assuredguaranty.com

 

mwalker@assuredguaranty.com

 

 

 

 

 

Media

 

 

Ashweeta Durani

 

 

Vice President, Global Communications

 

 

and Media Relations

 

 

(212) 408-6042

 

 

adurani@assuredguaranty.com

 


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