EX-99.2 3 a08-3468_2ex99d2.htm EX-99.2

Exhibit 99.2

 

 

Assured Guaranty Ltd.

Financial Supplement

Fourth Quarter 2007

December 31, 2007

 

Table of Contents

 

Page

Assured Guaranty Ltd.

 

 

Selected Financial Highlights

 

1

Consolidated GAAP Income Statements

 

2

Consolidated GAAP Balance Sheets

 

3

Segment Consolidation

 

4-5

Financial Guaranty Direct Segment

 

6-7

Financial Guaranty Reinsurance Segment

 

8-9

Mortgage Guaranty Segment

 

10

Other Segment

 

11

Loss and LAE Reserves and Analysis of Net Claims Paid

 

12

Investment Portfolio

 

13

Estimated Net Exposure Amortization

 

14

Estimated Net Unearned Premium Amortization and Estimated Future Installment Premiums

 

15

Financial Guaranty Profile

 

16-28

Non-Investment Grade Exposures

 

29

Closely Monitored Credits

 

30

Largest Exposures by Sector

 

31-34

Consolidated Capital and Claims Paying Resources

 

35

Summary Financial and Statistical Data

 

36

 

This supplement should be read in conjunction with documents filed by Assured Guaranty Ltd. (“Assured” or “the Company”) with the Securities and Exchange Commission, including our 10-Q’s dated March 31, 2006, June 30, 2006, September 30, 2006, March 31, 2007, June 30, 2007 and September 30, 2007 and our 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2006.

 

 

Some amounts in this Financial Supplement may not add due to rounding.

 

Cautionary Statement Regarding Forward-Looking Statements:

Any forward-looking statements made in this supplement reflect the Company’s current views with respect to future events and financial performance and are made pursuant to the safe harbor provisions of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Such statements involve risks and uncertainties that may cause actual results to differ materially from those set forth in these statements. For example, the Company’s forward looking statements, including its calculations of adjusted book value, present value of financial guaranty gross written premiums (“PVP”), net present value of estimated future installment premiums in force, total estimated net future premium earnings, and statements regarding losses, pricing, ratings, capital adequacy and the growth of the direct business could be affected by many events. These events include a significant reduction in the amount of reinsurance ceded by one or more of our principal ceding companies, rating agency action such as a ratings downgrade, difficulties with the execution of the Company’s business strategy, contract cancellations, developments or volatility in the world’s financial and capital markets, more severe or frequent losses associated with products affecting the adequacy of the Company’s loss reserves, changes in regulation or tax laws, governmental actions, natural catastrophes, the Company’s dependence on customers, decreased demand or increased competition, loss of key personnel, technological developments, the effects of mergers, acquisitions and divestitures, changes in accounting policies or practices, changes in general economic conditions, other risks and uncertainties that have not been identified at this time, management’s response to these factors, and other risk factors identified in the Company’s filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Readers are cautioned not to place undue reliance on these forward looking statements, which speak only as of the dates on which they are made. The Company undertakes no obligation to publicly update or revise any forward looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise.


 


 


 

Assured Guaranty Ltd.

Selected Financial Highlights

(dollars and shares in millions, except per share amounts)

 

 

 

Quarter Ended
December 31,

 

% Change
versus

 

Year Ended
December 31,

 

% Change
versus

 

 

 

2007

 

2006

 

4Q-06

 

2007

 

2006

 

2006

 

Gross written premiums (GWP) analysis:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Present value of GWP (PVP)(a)

 

$

477.0

 

$

116.0

 

311

%

$

874.6

 

$

453.6

 

93

%

Less: Financial guaranty installment premium PVP

 

276.9

 

69.5

 

298

%

545.0

 

270.6

 

101

%

Upfront financial guaranty GWP

 

200.1

 

46.5

 

330

%

329.6

 

183.0

 

80

%

Plus: Financial guaranty installment GWP

 

55.2

 

35.9

 

54

%

170.0

 

130.1

 

31

%

Financial guaranty GWP

 

255.3

 

82.4

 

210

%

499.6

 

313.1

 

60

%

Plus: Mortgage guaranty segment GWP

 

(0.2

)

2.7

 

NM

 

2.7

 

8.4

 

(68

)%

Plus: Other segment GWP

 

 

0.1

 

NM

 

3.5

 

4.1

 

(15

)%

Total GWP

 

$

255.2

 

$

85.2

 

200

%

$

505.9

 

$

325.7

 

55

%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Net (loss) income

 

$

(260.1

)

$

42.4

 

NM

 

$

(303.3

)

$

159.7

 

NM

 

Less: After-tax realized gains (losses) on investments

 

0.4

 

 

NM

 

(1.3

)

(1.5

)

(13

)%

Less: After-tax unrealized (losses) gains on derivatives(1)

 

(297.5

)

1.0

 

NM

 

(480.0

)

4.0

 

NM

 

Operating income(b)

 

$

37.0

 

$

41.5

 

(11

)%

$

178.0

 

$

157.2

 

13

%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Book value

 

$

1,666.6

 

$

1,650.8

 

1

%

 

 

 

 

 

 

Plus: Net unearned premium reserve, after tax(2)

 

791.1

 

557.0

 

42

%

 

 

 

 

 

 

Plus: Net present value of estimated future installment premiums in-force, after tax(d)

 

719.8

 

453.1

 

59

%

 

 

 

 

 

 

Less: Deferred acquisition costs (DAC), after tax

 

231.0

 

191.1

 

21

%

 

 

 

 

 

 

Adjusted book value(c)

 

$

2,946.5

 

$

2,469.8

 

19

%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

ROE, excluding AOCI

 

(65.4

)%

10.2

%

 

 

(18.8

)%

9.9

%

 

 

Operating ROE, excluding AOCI and after-tax unrealized (losses) gains on derivatives(b)

 

7.8

%

10.2

%

 

 

9.8

%

9.9

%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Per diluted share:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Net (loss) income

 

$

(3.77

)

$

0.58

 

NM

 

$

(4.46

)

$

2.15

 

NM

 

Less: After-tax realized gains (losses) on investments

 

0.01

 

 

NM

 

(0.02

)

(0.02

)

0

%

Less: After-tax unrealized (losses) gains on derivatives(1)

 

(4.31

)

0.01

 

NM

 

(7.06

)

0.05

 

NM

 

Operating income(b)

 

$

0.53

 

$

0.56

 

(5

)%

$

2.57

 

$

2.12

 

21

%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Book value

 

$

20.85

 

$

24.44

 

(15

)%

 

 

 

 

 

 

Plus: Net unearned premium reserve, after tax(2)

 

9.90

 

8.25

 

20

%

 

 

 

 

 

 

Plus: Net present value of estimated future installment premiums in-force, after tax(d)

 

9.00

 

6.71

 

34

%

 

 

 

 

 

 

Less: DAC, after tax

 

2.89

 

2.83

 

2

%

 

 

 

 

 

 

Adjusted book value(c)

 

$

36.85

 

$

36.57

 

1

%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Book value, excluding net unrealized mark-to-market gains (losses) on derivatives

 

$

26.43

 

$

23.95

 

10

%

 

 

 

 

 

 

Adjusted book value, excluding net unrealized mark-to-market gains (losses) on derivatives

 

$

42.44

 

$

36.08

 

18

%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Additional information:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Shares outstanding at the end of period(3)

 

79.9

 

67.5

 

18

%

 

 

 

 

 

 

Weighted average basic shares outstanding - GAAP(4)

 

69.0

 

72.5

 

(5

)%

68.0

 

73.3

 

(7

)%

Weighted average diluted shares outstanding - GAAP(4)

 

69.0

 

73.6

 

(6

)%

68.0

 

74.2

 

(8

)%

Weighted average diluted shares outstanding - non-GAAP(4)

 

70.1

 

73.6

 

(5

)%

69.3

 

74.2

 

(7

)%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Consolidated net debt service outstanding

 

$

302,413

 

$

180,174

 

68

%

 

 

 

 

 

 

Consolidated net par outstanding

 

200,279

 

132,296

 

51

%

 

 

 

 

 

 

Consolidated claims-paying resources

 

4,440

 

3,415

 

30

%

 

 

 

 

 

 

Gross par written

 

49,186

 

13,986

 

252

%

88,117

 

50,892

 

73

%

 


(1) The quarter and year ended December 31, 2007 included a fair value after-tax gain of $5.4 million, or $0.08 per diluted share, related to Assured Guaranty Corp.’s committed capital securities.

 

(2) Unearned premium reserve (UPR) less pre-paid reinsurance premiums, after tax.

 

(3) 12/31/07 shares outstanding excludes 1.2 million of nonvested restricted stock and 12/31/06 shares outstanding excludes 1.1 million of nonvested restricted stock, which is considered not issued under FAS 123R.

 

(4) The calculations for weighted average diluted shares outstanding and weighted average basic shares outstanding for GAAP are the same due to the antidilutive effect of options and restricted stock as a result of the net loss for the quarter and year ended December 31, 2007.  However, operating income, a non-GAAP financial measure, for both periods is positive, therefore the calculation of weighted diluted shares outstanding for operating income includes the dilutive effect of options and restricted stock.

 

 

Note: Please refer to endnotes for explanation of non-GAAP financial measures [PVP (a), operating income and operating ROE (b), adjusted book value (c), and net present value of estimated future installment premiums in force (d)].

 

NM = Not meaningful

 

1



 

Assured Guaranty Ltd.

Consolidated GAAP Income Statements

(dollars and shares in millions, except per share amounts)

 

 

 

Quarter Ended
December 31,

 

% Change
 versus

 

Year Ended
December 31,

 

% Change
 versus

 

 

 

2007

 

2006

 

4Q-06

 

2007

 

2006

 

2006

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Revenues

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Gross written premiums

 

$

255.2

 

$

85.2

 

200

%

$

505.9

 

$

325.7

 

55

%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Net written premiums

 

252.7

 

84.5

 

199

%

486.3

 

318.7

 

53

%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Net earned premiums

 

67.6

 

58.5

 

16

%

232.0

 

206.7

 

12

%

Net investment income

 

33.9

 

29.5

 

15

%

128.1

 

111.5

 

15

%

Other income

 

0.1

 

0.4

 

(75

)%

0.5

 

0.4

 

25

%

Total revenues

 

101.6

 

88.4

 

15

%

360.6

 

318.6

 

13

%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Expenses

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Loss and loss adjustment expenses

 

18.1

 

(0.7

)

NM

 

8.0

 

(6.8

)

NM

 

Profit commission expense

 

2.9

 

4.9

 

(41

)%

6.5

 

9.5

 

(32

)%

Acquisition costs

 

11.2

 

11.5

 

(3

)%

43.2

 

45.0

 

(4

)%

Other operating expenses

 

20.5

 

18.8

 

9

%

79.9

 

68.0

 

18

%

Interest and related expenses

 

6.6

 

4.3

 

53

%

26.2

 

16.3

 

61

%

Total expenses

 

59.2

 

38.7

 

53

%

163.7

 

132.1

 

24

%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Income before provision for income taxes

 

42.4

 

49.7

 

(15

)%

196.9

 

186.5

 

6

%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Total provision for income taxes

 

5.4

 

8.2

 

(34

)%

18.9

 

29.3

 

(35

)%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Operating income(b)

 

37.0

 

41.5

 

(11

)%

178.0

 

157.2

 

13

%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

After-tax realized gains (losses) on investments

 

0.4

 

 

NM

 

(1.3

)

(1.5

)

(13

)%

After-tax unrealized (losses) gains on derivatives(1)

 

(297.5

)

1.0

 

NM

 

(480.0

)

4.0

 

NM

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Net (loss) income

 

$

(260.1

)

$

42.4

 

NM

 

$

(303.3

)

$

159.7

 

NM

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Per diluted share

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Operating income(b)

 

$

0.53

 

$

0.56

 

(5

)%

$

2.57

 

$

2.12

 

21

%

After-tax realized gains (losses) on investments

 

0.01

 

 

NM

 

(0.02

)

(0.02

)

0

%

After-tax unrealized (losses) gains on derivatives(1)

 

(4.31

)

0.01

 

NM

 

(7.06

)

0.05

 

NM

 

Net (loss) income

 

$

(3.77

)

$

0.58

 

NM

 

$

(4.46

)

$

2.15

 

NM

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Effect of refundings

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Earned premiums from refundings

 

$

1.7

 

$

1.8

 

(6

)%

$

17.6

 

$

11.2

 

57

%

Operating income effect

 

$

0.8

 

$

0.7

 

14

%

$

9.1

 

$

5.2

 

75

%

Operating income per diluted share effect

 

$

0.01

 

$

0.01

 

0

%

$

0.13

 

$

0.07

 

86

%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Weighted average shares outstanding

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Basic shares outstanding

 

69.0

 

72.5

 

(5

)%

68.0

 

73.3

 

(7

)%

Plus: effect of options

 

 

0.6

 

NM

 

 

0.6

 

NM

 

Plus: effect of restricted stock

 

 

0.5

 

NM

 

 

0.4

 

NM

 

Diluted shares outstanding - GAAP(2)

 

69.0

 

73.6

 

(6

)%

68.0

 

74.2

 

(8

)%

Plus: effect of options

 

0.5

 

 

NM

 

0.6

 

 

NM

 

Plus: effect of restricted stock

 

0.7

 

 

NM

 

0.6

 

 

NM

 

Diluted shares outstanding - non-GAAP(2)

 

70.1

 

73.6

 

(5

)%

69.3

 

74.2

 

(7

)%

 


(1) The quarter and year ended December 31, 2007 included a fair value after-tax gain of $5.4 million, or $0.08 per diluted share, related to Assured Guaranty Corp.’s committed capital securities.

 

(2) The calculations for weighted average diluted shares outstanding and weighted average basic shares outstanding for GAAP are the same due to the antidilutive effect of options and restricted stock as a result of the net loss for the quarter and year ended December 31, 2007.  However, operating income, a non-GAAP financial measure, for both periods is positive, therefore the calculation of weighted diluted shares outstanding for operating income includes the dilutive effect of options and restricted stock.

 

 

Note: Please refer to endnotes for explanation of non-GAAP financial measures [PVP (a), operating income and operating ROE (b), and adjusted book value (c)].

 

 

NM = Not meaningful

 

2



 

Assured Guaranty Ltd.

Consolidated GAAP Balance Sheets

(dollars in millions)

 

 

 

As of :

 

 

 

December 31,
2007

 

December 31,
2006

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Assets

 

 

 

 

 

Fixed maturity securities, at fair value

 

$

2,587.0

 

$

2,331.1

 

Short-term investments, at cost which approximates fair value

 

552.9

 

134.1

 

Total investments

 

3,139.9

 

2,465.1

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Cash and cash equivalents

 

8.0

 

4.8

 

Accrued investment income

 

26.5

 

24.2

 

Deferred acquisition costs

 

259.3

 

217.0

 

Prepaid reinsurance premiums

 

17.0

 

7.5

 

Reinsurance recoverable on ceded losses

 

8.8

 

10.9

 

Premiums receivable

 

57.9

 

41.6

 

Goodwill

 

85.4

 

85.4

 

Unrealized gains on derivative financial instruments

 

17.6

 

52.6

 

Deferred tax asset

 

147.6

 

 

Other assets

 

32.3

 

26.2

 

Total assets

 

$

3,800.4

 

$

2,935.3

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Liabilities and shareholders’ equity

 

 

 

 

 

Liabilities

 

 

 

 

 

Unearned premium reserves

 

$

908.3

 

$

644.5

 

Reserves for losses and loss adjustment expenses

 

133.8

 

120.6

 

Profit commissions payable

 

22.3

 

36.0

 

Reinsurance balances payable

 

4.1

 

7.2

 

Current income taxes payable

 

0.6

 

7.2

 

Deferred income taxes

 

 

39.9

 

Funds held by Company under reinsurance contracts

 

25.4

 

21.4

 

Unrealized losses on derivative financial instruments

 

630.2

 

6.7

 

Senior notes

 

197.4

 

197.4

 

Series A Enhanced Junior Subordinated Debentures

 

149.7

 

149.7

 

Liability for tax basis step-up adjustment

 

9.9

 

15.0

 

Other liabilities

 

51.9

 

39.0

 

Total liabilities

 

2,133.8

 

1,284.6

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Shareholders’ equity

 

 

 

 

 

Common stock

 

0.8

 

0.7

 

Additional paid-in capital

 

1,023.9

 

711.3

 

Retained earnings

 

585.3

 

896.9

 

Accumulated other comprehensive income

 

56.6

 

41.9

 

Total shareholders’ equity

 

1,666.6

 

1,650.8

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Total liabilities and shareholders’ equity

 

$

3,800.4

 

$

2,935.3

 

 

3



 

Assured Guaranty Ltd.

Segment Consolidation (1 of 2)

(dollars in millions)

 

 

 

Quarter Ended December 31, 2007

 

 

 

Financial
Guaranty
Direct

 

Financial
Guaranty
Reinsurance(1)

 

Mortgage
Guaranty

 

Total
Financial
Guaranty

 

Other

 

Total

 

Present value of financial guaranty gross written premiums (PVP):(a)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

U.S. public finance

 

$

25.6

 

$

272.7

 

$

 

$

298.3

 

 

 

$

298.3

 

U.S. structured finance

 

92.3

 

22.9

 

 

115.2

 

 

 

115.2

 

International

 

38.5

 

25.0

 

 

63.5

 

 

 

63.5

 

Total PVP

 

$

156.4

 

$

320.7

 

$

 

$

477.0

 

 

 

$

477.0

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Income statement:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Gross written premiums

 

$

72.3

 

$

183.0

 

$

(0.2

)

$

255.2

 

$

 

$

255.2

 

Net written premiums

 

69.9

 

183.0

 

(0.2

)

252.7

 

 

252.7

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Net earned premiums

 

36.7

 

21.7

 

9.2

 

67.6

 

 

67.6

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Loss and loss adjustment expenses

 

23.3

 

(4.8

)

(0.4

)

18.1

 

 

18.1

 

Profit commission expense

 

 

0.5

 

2.4

 

2.9

 

 

2.9

 

Acquisition costs

 

2.6

 

7.3

 

1.2

 

11.2

 

 

11.2

 

Operating expenses

 

14.9

 

4.5

 

1.0

 

20.5

 

 

20.5

 

Total underwriting expenses

 

$

40.9

 

$

7.5

 

$

4.2

 

$

52.6

 

$

 

$

52.6

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Underwriting (loss) gain

 

$

(4.2

)

$

14.2

 

$

5.0

 

$

15.0

 

$

 

$

15.0

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Loss and loss adjustment expense ratio

 

63.6

%

(22.3

)%

(4.3

)%

26.7

%

 

 

26.7

%

Expense ratio

 

47.9

%

56.7

%

50.3

%

51.1

%

 

 

51.1

%

Combined ratio

 

111.5

%

34.4

%

46.0

%

77.8

%

 

 

77.8

%

 

 

 

Quarter Ended December 31, 2006

 

 

 

Financial
Guaranty
Direct

 

Financial
Guaranty
Reinsurance(1)

 

Mortgage
Guaranty

 

Total
Financial
Guaranty

 

Other

 

Total

 

PVP:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

U.S. public finance

 

$

13.0

 

$

30.4

 

$

 

$

43.4

 

 

 

$

43.4

 

U.S. structured finance

 

32.5

 

4.5

 

 

36.9

 

 

 

36.9

 

International

 

25.3

 

10.4

 

 

35.7

 

 

 

35.7

 

Total PVP

 

$

70.8

 

$

45.2

 

$

 

$

116.0

 

 

 

$

116.0

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Income statement:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Gross written premiums

 

$

48.7

 

$

33.7

 

$

2.7

 

$

85.1

 

$

0.1

 

$

85.2

 

Net written premiums

 

48.0

 

33.7

 

2.7

 

84.5

 

 

84.5

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Net earned premiums

 

26.0

 

22.6

 

9.9

 

58.5

 

 

58.5

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Loss and loss adjustment expenses

 

2.6

 

2.8

 

(5.0

)

0.5

 

(1.2

)

(0.7

)

Profit commission expense

 

 

0.6

 

4.3

 

4.9

 

 

4.9

 

Acquisition costs

 

2.2

 

7.9

 

1.3

 

11.5

 

 

11.5

 

Operating expenses

 

14.7

 

3.8

 

0.3

 

18.8

 

 

18.8

 

Total underwriting expenses

 

$

19.5

 

$

15.2

 

$

0.9

 

$

35.7

 

$

(1.2

)

$

34.5

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Underwriting gain

 

$

6.5

 

$

7.4

 

$

8.9

 

$

22.8

 

$

1.2

 

$

24.0

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Loss and loss adjustment expense ratio

 

10.0

%

12.6

%

(50.7

)%

0.8

%

 

 

(1.3

)%

Expense ratio

 

65.1

%

54.7

%

60.2

%

60.2

%

 

 

60.2

%

Combined ratio

 

75.1

%

67.3

%

9.5

%

61.0

%

 

 

58.9

%

 


(1) Due to the timing of receiving reports prepared by Assured’s ceding companies, present value of financial guaranty gross written premiums (PVP) for installment premiums, par written and par outstanding on treaty business in the Company’s Financial Guaranty Reinsurance segment are reported on a one-quarter lag. 

 

 

Note: Please refer to endnotes for explanation of non-GAAP financial measures [PVP (a), operating income and operating ROE (b), and adjusted book value (c)].

 

4



 

Assured Guaranty Ltd.

Segment Consolidation (2 of 2)

(dollars in millions)

 

 

 

Year Ended December 31, 2007

 

 

 

Financial
Guaranty
Direct

 

Financial
Guaranty
Reinsurance(1)

 

Mortgage
Guaranty

 

Total
Financial
Guaranty

 

Other

 

Total

 

Present value of financial guaranty gross written premiums (PVP):(a)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

U.S. public finance

 

$

60.1

 

$

301.5

 

$

 

$

361.7

 

 

 

$

361.7

 

U.S. structured finance

 

264.1

 

32.4

 

 

296.5

 

 

 

296.5

 

International

 

152.6

 

63.9

 

 

216.5

 

 

 

216.5

 

Total PVP

 

$

476.8

 

$

397.8

 

$

 

$

874.6

 

 

 

$

874.6

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Income statement:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Gross written premiums

 

$

248.6

 

$

251.0

 

$

2.7

 

$

502.4

 

$

3.5

 

$

505.9

 

Net written premiums

 

232.8

 

250.8

 

2.7

 

486.3

 

 

486.3

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Net earned premiums

 

125.5

 

88.9

 

17.5

 

232.0

 

 

232.0

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Loss and loss adjustment expenses

 

32.6

 

(24.1

)

0.6

 

9.2

 

(1.3

)

8.0

 

Profit commission expense

 

 

2.7

 

3.8

 

6.5

 

 

6.5

 

Acquisition costs

 

10.3

 

31.3

 

1.6

 

43.2

 

 

43.2

 

Operating expenses

 

60.5

 

17.3

 

2.0

 

79.9

 

 

79.9

 

Total underwriting expenses

 

$

103.4

 

$

27.3

 

$

8.1

 

$

138.7

 

$

(1.3

)

$

137.5

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Underwriting gain

 

$

22.1

 

$

61.6

 

$

9.4

 

$

93.3

 

$

1.3

 

$

94.5

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Loss and loss adjustment expense ratio

 

26.0

%

(27.1

)%

3.3

%

4.0

%

 

 

3.4

%

Expense ratio

 

56.4

%

57.7

%

42.9

%

55.8

%

 

 

55.8

%

Combined ratio

 

82.4

%

30.6

%

46.2

%

59.8

%

 

 

59.2

%

 

 

 

Year Ended December 31, 2006

 

 

 

Financial
Guaranty
Direct

 

Financial
Guaranty
Reinsurance(1)

 

Mortgage
Guaranty

 

Total
Financial
Guaranty

 

Other

 

Total

 

PVP:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

U.S. public finance

 

$

35.7

 

$

80.0

 

$

 

$

115.7

 

 

 

$

115.7

 

U.S. structured finance

 

146.8

 

13.5

 

 

160.3

 

 

 

160.3

 

International

 

119.7

 

57.9

 

 

177.7

 

 

 

177.7

 

Total PVP

 

$

302.2

 

$

151.5

 

$

 

$

453.6

 

 

 

$

453.6

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Income statement:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Gross written premiums

 

$

189.2

 

$

123.9

 

$

8.4

 

$

321.6

 

$

4.1

 

$

325.7

 

Net written premiums

 

187.0

 

123.2

 

8.4

 

318.7

 

 

318.7

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Net earned premiums

 

89.7

 

94.4

 

22.7

 

206.7

 

 

206.7

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Loss and loss adjustment expenses

 

(2.0

)

13.1

 

(4.4

)

6.7

 

(13.5

)

(6.8

)

Profit commission expense

 

 

2.7

 

6.8

 

9.5

 

 

9.5

 

Acquisition costs

 

8.5

 

34.1

 

2.3

 

45.0

 

 

45.0

 

Operating expenses

 

52.3

 

14.5

 

1.3

 

68.0

 

 

68.0

 

Total underwriting expenses

 

$

58.9

 

$

64.4

 

$

6.0

 

$

129.1

 

$

(13.5

)

$

115.6

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Underwriting gain

 

$

30.8

 

$

30.0

 

$

16.7

 

$

77.5

 

$

13.5

 

$

91.0

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Loss and loss adjustment expense ratio

 

(2.2

)%

13.9

%

(19.4

)%

3.2

%

 

 

(3.3

)%

Expense ratio

 

67.8

%

54.3

%

45.7

%

59.2

%

 

 

59.2

%

Combined ratio

 

65.6

%

68.2

%

26.3

%

62.4

%

 

 

55.9

%

 


(1) Due to the timing of receiving reports prepared by Assured’s ceding companies, present value of financial guaranty gross written premiums (PVP) for installment premiums, par written and par outstanding on treaty business in the Company’s Financial Guaranty Reinsurance segment are reported on a one-quarter lag.

 

 

Note: Please refer to endnotes for explanation of non-GAAP financial measures [PVP (a), operating income and operating ROE (b), and adjusted book value (c)].

 

 

5


 


 

Assured Guaranty Ltd.

Financial Guaranty Direct Segment (1 of 2)

(dollars in millions)

 

 

 

1Q-06

 

2Q-06

 

3Q-06

 

4Q-06

 

1Q-07

 

2Q-07

 

3Q-07

 

4Q-07

 

Full Year
2006

 

Full Year
2007

 

Present value of gross written premiums (PVP)(a)

 

$

41.6

 

$

98.8

 

$

90.9

 

$

70.8

 

$

83.7

 

$

104.0

 

$

132.7

 

$

156.4

 

$

302.2

 

$

476.8

 

Less: Present value of installment premiums(a)

 

33.2

 

53.1

 

69.4

 

48.6

 

63.0

 

68.7

 

99.7

 

125.8

 

204.3

 

357.2

 

Upfront gross written premiums (GWP)

 

8.5

 

45.7

 

21.5

 

22.2

 

20.7

 

35.3

 

33.0

 

30.6

 

97.9

 

119.5

 

Plus: Installment GWP

 

21.8

 

22.7

 

20.4

 

26.5

 

28.8

 

27.4

 

31.0

 

41.7

 

91.3

 

129.1

 

Financial guaranty direct GWP

 

$

30.2

 

$

68.4

 

$

41.9

 

$

48.7

 

$

49.5

 

$

62.7

 

$

64.0

 

$

72.3

 

$

189.2

 

$

248.6

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Income statement:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Gross written premiums

 

$

30.2

 

$

68.4

 

$

41.9

 

$

48.7

 

$

49.5

 

$

62.7

 

$

64.0

 

$

72.3

 

$

189.2

 

$

248.6

 

Net written premiums

 

29.7

 

67.8

 

41.5

 

48.0

 

48.9

 

59.0

 

55.0

 

69.9

 

187.0

 

232.8

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Net earned premiums:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Scheduled net earned premiums

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

U.S. public finance

 

0.9

 

1.0

 

1.0

 

1.0

 

1.3

 

1.5

 

1.7

 

2.0

 

3.9

 

6.5

 

U.S. structured finance

 

18.6

 

18.8

 

18.1

 

19.8

 

21.3

 

21.6

 

23.5

 

28.0

 

75.3

 

94.4

 

International

 

1.2

 

1.4

 

2.7

 

5.3

 

4.6

 

5.2

 

5.3

 

6.6

 

10.5

 

21.8

 

Total scheduled net earned premiums

 

20.7

 

21.2

 

21.8

 

26.0

 

27.2

 

28.3

 

30.6

 

36.7

 

89.7

 

122.7

 

Net earned premiums from refundings

 

 

 

 

 

1.7

 

 

1.1

 

 

 

2.8

 

Total net earned premiums

 

20.7

 

21.2

 

21.8

 

26.0

 

28.9

 

28.3

 

31.7

 

36.7

 

89.7

 

125.5

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Loss and loss adjustment expenses:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Case

 

(2.0

)

(0.4

)

(0.3

)

0.9

 

0.2

 

1.7

 

0.3

 

0.2

 

(1.8

)

2.4

 

Portfolio

 

0.2

 

(2.1

)

 

1.7

 

1.0

 

 

6.1

 

23.1

 

(0.2

)

30.2

 

Total loss and loss adjustment expenses

 

(1.8

)

(2.5

)

(0.3

)

2.6

 

1.2

 

1.7

 

6.4

 

23.3

 

(2.0

)

32.6

 

Profit commission expense

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Acquisition costs

 

1.8

 

2.3

 

2.1

 

2.2

 

3.0

 

2.3

 

2.4

 

2.6

 

8.5

 

10.3

 

Operating expenses

 

13.4

 

12.0

 

12.2

 

14.7

 

15.9

 

14.5

 

15.1

 

14.9

 

52.3

 

60.5

 

Total expenses

 

$

13.5

 

$

11.8

 

$

14.0

 

$

19.5

 

$

20.1

 

$

18.5

 

$

23.9

 

$

40.9

 

$

58.9

 

$

103.4

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Underwriting gain (loss)

 

$

7.2

 

$

9.4

 

$

7.7

 

$

6.5

 

$

8.8

 

$

9.8

 

$

7.8

 

$

(4.2

)

$

30.8

 

$

22.1

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Loss and loss adjustment expense ratio

 

(8.7

)%

(11.7

)%

(1.3

)%

10.0

%

4.2

%

6.0

%

20.2

%

63.6

%

(2.2

)%

26.0

%

Expense ratio

 

73.8

%

67.4

%

65.7

%

65.1

%

65.4

%

59.4

%

55.2

%

47.9

%

67.8

%

56.4

%

Combined ratio

 

65.1

%

55.7

%

64.4

%

75.1

%

69.6

%

65.4

%

75.4

%

111.5

%

65.6

%

82.4

%

 

Note: Please refer to endnotes for explanation of non-GAAP financial measures [PVP (a), operating income and operating ROE (b), adjusted book value (c), and net present value of estimated future installment premiums in force (d)].

 

6



 

Assured Guaranty Ltd.

Financial Guaranty Direct Segment (2 of 2)

(dollars in millions)

 

 

 

1Q-06

 

2Q-06

 

3Q-06

 

4Q-06

 

1Q-07

 

2Q-07

 

3Q-07

 

4Q-07

 

Full Year
2006

 

Full Year
2007

 

PVP(a):

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

U.S. public finance

 

$

8.5

 

$

6.0

 

$

8.2

 

$

13.0

 

$

8.8

 

$

15.4

 

$

10.3

 

$

25.6

 

$

35.7

 

$

60.1

 

U.S. structured finance

 

27.6

 

41.0

 

45.7

 

32.5

 

44.9

 

49.9

 

77.0

 

92.3

 

146.8

 

264.1

 

International

 

5.6

 

51.8

 

36.9

 

25.3

 

29.9

 

38.8

 

45.4

 

38.5

 

119.7

 

152.6

 

Total

 

$

41.6

 

$

98.8

 

$

90.9

 

$

70.8

 

$

83.7

 

$

104.0

 

$

132.7

 

$

156.4

 

$

302.2

 

$

476.8

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Gross par written:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

U.S. public finance

 

$

283

 

$

326

 

$

423

 

$

628

 

$

609

 

$

705

 

$

695

 

$

2,271

 

$

1,660

 

$

4,281

 

U.S. structured finance

 

4,446

 

10,943

 

4,968

 

6,486

 

5,776

 

7,723

 

9,203

 

8,644

 

26,843

 

31,346

 

International

 

648

 

2,210

 

5,375

 

5,007

 

2,190

 

2,393

 

2,995

 

4,589

 

13,240

 

12,167

 

Total

 

$

5,377

 

$

13,479

 

$

10,766

 

$

12,121

 

$

8,575

 

$

10,822

 

$

12,893

 

$

15,505

 

$

41,743

 

$

47,795

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Net par outstanding:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

U.S. public finance

 

$

3,250

 

$

2,471

 

$

2,878

 

$

3,499

 

$

3,989

 

$

4,686

 

$

5,313

 

$

7,504

 

$

3,499

 

$

7,504

 

U.S. structured finance

 

31,559

 

38,847

 

39,191

 

44,467

 

48,430

 

50,562

 

57,497

 

64,950

 

44,467

 

64,950

 

International

 

7,215

 

9,806

 

14,865

 

19,868

 

21,319

 

22,979

 

25,896

 

30,566

 

19,868

 

30,566

 

Total

 

$

42,024

 

$

51,124

 

$

56,935

 

$

67,834

 

$

73,738

 

$

78,227

 

$

88,705

 

$

103,021

 

$

67,834

 

$

103,021

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Net present value of installment premiums in force: (d)

 

$

265.7

 

$

300.5

 

$

358.4

 

$

408.2

 

$

425.3

 

$

459.1

 

$

533.8

 

$

639.2

 

$

408.2

 

$

639.2

 

Unearned premium reserve net of ceded reinsurance

 

48.6

 

95.2

 

114.9

 

136.8

 

156.8

 

187.9

 

210.9

 

244.0

 

136.8

 

244.0

 

 

Note: Please refer to endnotes for explanation of non-GAAP financial measures [PVP (a), operating income and operating ROE (b), adjusted book value (c), and net present value of estimated future installment premiums in force (d)].

 

7



 

Assured Guaranty Ltd.

Financial Guaranty Reinsurance Segment(1) (1 of 2)

(dollars in millions)

 

 

 

1Q-06

 

2Q-06

 

3Q-06

 

4Q-06

 

1Q-07

 

2Q-07

 

3Q-07

 

4Q-07

 

Full Year
2006

 

Full Year
2007

 

Present value of gross written premiums (PVP)(a)

 

$

20.1

 

$

49.6

 

$

36.5

 

$

45.2

 

$

23.1

 

$

21.3

 

$

32.8

 

$

320.7

 

$

151.5

 

$

397.8

 

Less: Present value of installment premiums(a)

 

11.0

 

17.7

 

16.8

 

20.8

 

14.2

 

4.2

 

18.3

 

151.1

 

66.3

 

187.8

 

Upfront gross written premiums (GWP)

 

9.1

 

31.9

 

19.8

 

24.4

 

8.9

 

17.1

 

14.5

 

169.5

 

85.2

 

210.0

 

Plus: Installment GWP

 

9.7

 

9.8

 

9.9

 

9.3

 

9.8

 

8.4

 

9.3

 

13.5

 

38.7

 

41.1

 

Financial guaranty reinsurance GWP

 

$

18.8

 

$

41.7

 

$

29.7

 

$

33.7

 

$

18.7

 

$

25.5

 

$

23.8

 

$

183.0

 

$

123.9

 

$

251.0

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Income statement:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Gross written premiums:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Treaty

 

$

12.0

 

$

29.1

 

$

22.4

 

$

19.0

 

$

14.2

 

$

16.9

 

$

15.8

 

$

19.1

 

$

82.4

 

$

66.0

 

Facultative

 

6.8

 

12.6

 

7.3

 

14.7

 

4.5

 

8.6

 

8.0

 

163.9

 

41.5

 

185.0

 

Total gross written premiums

 

$

18.8

 

$

41.7

 

$

29.7

 

$

33.7

 

$

18.7

 

$

25.5

 

$

23.8

 

$

183.0

 

$

123.9

 

$

251.0

 

Net written premiums

 

18.5

 

41.3

 

29.7

 

33.7

 

18.5

 

25.5

 

23.8

 

183.0

 

123.2

 

250.8

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Net earned premiums:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Scheduled net earned premiums

 

19.7

 

21.4

 

21.3

 

20.8

 

18.7

 

17.3

 

18.1

 

20.0

 

83.2

 

74.1

 

Net earned premiums from refundings

 

3.6

 

1.7

 

4.1

 

1.8

 

3.2

 

6.4

 

3.5

 

1.7

 

11.2

 

14.8

 

Total net earned premiums

 

23.3

 

23.1

 

25.4

 

22.6

 

21.9

 

23.7

 

21.6

 

21.7

 

94.4

 

88.9

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Loss and loss adjustment expenses:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Case

 

2.3

 

1.8

 

(1.2

)

2.4

 

(7.3

)

(2.4

)

2.8

 

(3.6

)

5.4

 

(10.5

)

Portfolio

 

0.5

 

3.9

 

3.0

 

0.4

 

2.5

 

(8.6

)

(6.2

)

(1.3

)

7.8

 

(13.6

)

Total loss and loss adjustment expenses

 

2.8

 

5.7

 

1.8

 

2.8

 

(4.8

)

(11.0

)

(3.4

)

(4.8

)

13.1

 

(24.1

)

Profit commission expense

 

0.4

 

1.0

 

0.7

 

0.6

 

0.9

 

0.5

 

0.8

 

0.5

 

2.7

 

2.7

 

Acquisition costs

 

8.7

 

8.5

 

8.9

 

7.9

 

7.7

 

8.6

 

7.7

 

7.3

 

34.1

 

31.3

 

Operating expenses

 

3.4

 

3.4

 

3.9

 

3.8

 

4.4

 

3.9

 

4.5

 

4.5

 

14.5

 

17.3

 

Total expenses

 

$

15.3

 

$

18.5

 

$

15.3

 

$

15.2

 

$

8.3

 

$

2.0

 

$

9.6

 

$

7.5

 

64.4

 

$

27.3

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Underwriting gain

 

$

8.0

 

$

4.6

 

$

10.1

 

$

7.4

 

$

13.6

 

$

21.7

 

$

12.1

 

$

14.2

 

$

30.0

 

$

61.6

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Loss and loss adjustment expense ratio

 

12.0

%

24.6

%

7.1

%

12.6

%

(21.9

)%

(46.4

)%

(15.9

)%

(22.3

)%

13.9

%

(27.1

)%

Expense ratio

 

53.6

%

55.4

%

53.3

%

54.7

%

59.6

%

54.9

%

60.1

%

56.7

%

54.3

%

57.7

%

Combined ratio

 

65.6

%

80.0

%

60.4

%

67.3

%

37.7

%

8.5

%

44.2

%

34.4

%

68.2

%

30.6

%


(1)   Due to the timing of receiving reports prepared by Assured’s ceding companies, present value of financial guaranty gross written premiums (PVP) for installment premiums, par written and par outstanding on treaty business in the Company’s Financial Guaranty Reinsurance segment are reported on a one-quarter lag.

 

Note: Please refer to endnotes for explanation of non-GAAP financial measures [PVP (a), operating income and operating ROE (b), and adjusted book value (c)].

 

8



 

Assured Guaranty Ltd.

Financial Guaranty Reinsurance Segment(1) (2 of 2)

(dollars in millions)

 

 

 

1Q-06

 

2Q-06

 

3Q-06

 

4Q-06

 

1Q-07

 

2Q-07

 

3Q-07

 

4Q-07

 

Full Year
2006

 

Full Year
2007

 

PVP (a):

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

U.S. public finance

 

$

8.5

 

$

29.7

 

$

11.4

 

$

30.4

 

$

4.7

 

$

14.1

 

$

10.0

 

$

272.7

 

$

80.0

 

$

301.5

 

U.S. structured finance

 

3.4

 

2.0

 

3.8

 

4.5

 

3.9

 

2.5

 

3.0

 

22.9

 

13.5

 

32.4

 

International

 

8.3

 

17.9

 

21.4

 

10.4

 

14.4

 

4.7

 

19.8

 

25.0

 

57.9

 

63.9

 

Total

 

$

20.1

 

$

49.6

 

$

36.5

 

$

45.2

 

$

23.1

 

$

21.3

 

$

32.8

 

$

320.7

 

$

151.5

 

$

397.8

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Gross par written:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

U.S. public finance

 

$

1,631

 

$

718

 

$

1,475

 

$

1,367

 

$

754

 

$

1,845

 

$

1,344

 

$

26,598

 

$

5,192

 

$

30,541

 

U.S. structured finance

 

444

 

311

 

453

 

127

 

496

 

491

 

472

 

3,195

 

1,335

 

4,655

 

International

 

677

 

775

 

800

 

371

 

537

 

152

 

550

 

3,888

 

2,622

 

5,127

 

Total

 

$

2,752

 

$

1,804

 

$

2,727

 

$

1,865

 

$

1,787

 

$

2,488

 

$

2,366

 

$

33,681

 

$

9,149

 

$

40,323

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Net par outstanding:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

U.S. public finance

 

$

48,309

 

$

48,316

 

$

48,335

 

$

48,836

 

$

48,929

 

$

48,801

 

$

48,832

 

$

74,409

 

$

48,836

 

$

74,409

 

U.S. structured finance

 

9,387

 

8,314

 

8,046

 

7,116

 

6,945

 

6,809

 

6,155

 

8,869

 

7,116

 

8,869

 

International

 

7,196

 

7,857

 

8,263

 

8,510

 

9,240

 

9,318

 

10,002

 

13,980

 

8,510

 

13,980

 

Total

 

$

64,893

 

$

64,487

 

$

64,644

 

$

64,462

 

$

65,115

 

$

64,928

 

$

64,989

 

$

97,258

 

$

64,462

 

$

97,258

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Net present value of installment premiums in force(d)

 

$

153.8

 

$

158.9

 

$

164.5

 

$

164.9

 

$

160.2

 

$

155.1

 

$

151.4

 

$

277.0

 

$

164.9

 

$

277.0

 

Unearned premium reserve net of ceded reinsurance

 

431.2

 

449.4

 

453.8

 

464.8

 

460.9

 

462.9

 

465.0

 

626.3

 

464.8

 

626.3

 

 


(1) Due to the timing of receiving reports prepared by Assured’s ceding companies, present value of financial guaranty gross written premiums (PVP) for installment premiums, par written and par outstanding on treaty business in the Company’s Financial Guaranty Reinsurance segment are reported on a one-quarter lag. 

 

Note: Please refer to endnotes for explanation of non-GAAP financial measures [PVP (a), operating income and operating ROE (b), adjusted book value (c), and net present value of estimated future installment premiums in force (d)].

 

9



 

Assured Guaranty Ltd.

Mortgage Guaranty Segment

(dollars in millions)

 

 

 

1Q-06

 

2Q-06

 

3Q-06

 

4Q-06

 

1Q-07

 

2Q-07

 

3Q-07

 

4Q-07

 

Full Year
2006

 

Full Year
2007

 

Present value of gross written premiums (PVP)(a)

 

$

 

$

 

$

 

$

 

$

 

$

 

$

 

$

 

$

 

$

 

Less: Present value of installment premiums(a)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Upfront gross written premiums (GWP)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Plus: Installment GWP

 

2.6

 

1.2

 

1.9

 

2.7

 

1.0

 

0.5

 

1.4

 

(0.2

)

8.4

 

2.7

 

Mortgage guaranty GWP

 

$

2.6

 

$

1.2

 

$

1.9

 

$

2.7

 

$

1.0

 

$

0.5

 

$

1.4

 

$

(0.2

)

$

8.4

 

$

2.7

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Income statement:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Gross written premiums

 

$

2.6

 

$

1.2

 

$

1.9

 

$

2.7

 

$

1.0

 

$

0.5

 

$

1.4

 

$

(0.2

)

$

8.4

 

$

2.7

 

Net written premiums

 

2.6

 

1.2

 

1.9

 

2.7

 

1.0

 

0.5

 

1.4

 

(0.2

)

8.4

 

2.7

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Net earned premiums

 

4.2

 

3.7

 

4.9

 

9.9

 

3.1

 

2.3

 

2.9

 

9.2

 

22.7

 

17.5

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Loss and loss adjustment expenses:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Case

 

 

0.1

 

0.1

 

(0.1

)

 

 

 

 

0.1

 

 

Portfolio and IBNR

 

(0.2

)

0.3

 

0.3

 

(4.9

)

0.1

 

0.1

 

0.8

 

(0.4

)

(4.5

)

0.6

 

Total loss and loss adjustment expenses

 

(0.2

)

0.4

 

0.4

 

(5.0

)

0.1

 

0.1

 

0.8

 

(0.4

)

(4.4

)

0.6

 

Profit commission expense

 

0.9

 

0.7

 

0.9

 

4.3

 

0.7

 

0.4

 

0.4

 

2.4

 

6.8

 

3.8

 

Acquisition costs

 

0.3

 

0.3

 

0.3

 

1.3

 

0.2

 

 

0.2

 

1.2

 

2.3

 

1.6

 

Operating expenses

 

0.3

 

0.3

 

0.4

 

0.3

 

0.3

 

0.5

 

0.3

 

1.0

 

1.3

 

2.0

 

Total expenses

 

$

1.3

 

$

1.7

 

$

2.0

 

$

0.9

 

$

1.3

 

$

1.0

 

$

1.6

 

$

4.2

 

$

6.0

 

$

8.1

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Underwriting gain

 

$

2.8

 

$

2.0

 

$

2.9

 

$

8.9

 

$

1.8

 

$

1.3

 

$

1.3

 

$

5.0

 

$

16.7

 

$

9.4

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Loss and loss adjustment expense ratio

 

(3.7

)%

9.4

%

8.2

%

(50.7

)%

3.3

%

4.3

%

26.5

%

(4.3

)%

(19.4

)%

3.3

%

Expense ratio

 

36.1

%

36.4

%

31.9

%

60.2

%

37.8

%

39.1

%

27.5

%

50.3

%

45.7

%

42.9

%

Combined ratio

 

32.4

%

45.8

%

40.1

%

9.5

%

41.1

%

43.4

%

54.0

%

46.0

%

26.3

%

46.2

%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Risk in force

 

$

1,970

 

$

1,960

 

$

2,003

 

$

1,822

 

$

1,374

 

$

1,398

 

$

1,374

 

$

1,116

 

$

1,822

 

$

1,116

 

Risk written

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Unearned premium reserve net of ceded reinsurance

 

48.1

 

45.6

 

42.6

 

35.4

 

33.5

 

31.6

 

30.1

 

20.8

 

35.4

 

20.8

 

 

 

10



 

Assured Guaranty Ltd.

Other Segment

(dollars in millions)

 

 

 

1Q-06

 

2Q-06

 

3Q-06

 

4Q-06

 

1Q-07

 

2Q-07

 

3Q-07

 

4Q-07

 

Full Year
2006

 

Full Year
2007

 

Income statement:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Gross written premiums

 

$

3.8

 

$

0.1

 

$

0.1

 

$

0.1

 

$

3.3

 

$

0.1

 

$

0.1

 

$

 

$

4.1

 

$

3.5

 

Net written premiums

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Net earned premiums

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Loss and loss adjustment expenses

 

(1.2

)

(10.1

)

(1.0

)

(1.2

)

(1.3

)

 

 

 

(13.5

)

(1.3

)

Profit commission expense

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Acquisition costs

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Operating expenses

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Total expenses

 

$

(1.2

)

$

(10.1

)

$

(1.0

)

$

(1.2

)

$

(1.3

)

$

 

$

 

$

 

$

(13.5

)

$

(1.3

)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Underwriting gain

 

$

1.2

 

$

10.1

 

$

1.0

 

$

1.2

 

$

1.3

 

$

 

$

 

$

 

$

13.5

 

$

1.3

 

 

 

11



Assured Guaranty Ltd.

Loss and LAE Reserves by Segment/Type and Analysis of Net Claims Paid

(dollars in millions)

 

 

 

As of December 31, 2007

 

 

 

Financial

 

Financial

 

 

 

Total

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Guaranty

 

Guaranty

 

Mortgage

 

Financial

 

 

 

 

 

Reserves by segment and type:

 

Direct

 

Reinsurance

 

Guaranty

 

Guaranty

 

Other

 

Total

 

Case

 

$

3.2

 

$

35.6

 

$

0.1

 

$

38.9

 

$

2.4

 

$

41.3

 

IBNR

 

 

 

 

 

6.4

 

6.4

 

Portfolio reserves associated with fundamentally sound credits

 

20.9

 

33.0

 

2.8

 

56.7

 

 

56.7

 

Portfolio reserves associated with CMC credits

 

17.7

 

11.7

 

 

29.4

 

 

29.4

 

Total

 

$

41.8

 

$

80.3

 

$

2.9

 

$

125.0

 

$

8.8

 

$

133.8

 

 

 

 

As of December 31, 2006

 

 

 

Financial

 

Financial

 

 

 

Total

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Guaranty

 

Guaranty

 

Mortgage

 

Financial

 

 

 

 

 

Reserves by segment and type:

 

Direct

 

Reinsurance

 

Guaranty

 

Guaranty

 

Other

 

Total

 

Case

 

$

1.0

 

$

36.1

 

$

0.1

 

$

37.2

 

$

6.8

 

$

44.0

 

IBNR

 

 

 

 

 

7.4

 

7.4

 

Portfolio reserves associated with fundamentally sound credits

 

6.1

 

29.1

 

2.2

 

37.4

 

 

37.4

 

Portfolio reserves associated with CMC credits

 

2.2

 

29.6

 

 

31.8

 

 

31.8

 

Total

 

$

9.3

 

$

94.8

 

$

2.3

 

$

106.4

 

$

14.2

 

$

120.6

 

 

Analysis of Net Claims Paid

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Full Year

 

Full Year

 

 

 

4Q-07

 

4Q-06

 

2007

 

2006

 

Net claims paid by segment:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Financial Guaranty Direct

 

$

0.2

 

$

(1.3

)

$

(1.1

)

$

1.7

 

Financial Guaranty Reinsurance

 

3.1

 

3.8

 

(8.3

)

11.7

 

Mortgage Guaranty

 

 

 

 

0.3

 

Total Financial Guaranty

 

$

3.3

 

$

2.5

 

$

(9.4

)

$

13.7

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Net earned premiums by segment:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Financial Guaranty Direct

 

$

36.7

 

$

26.0

 

$

125.5

 

$

89.7

 

Financial Guaranty Reinsurance

 

21.7

 

22.6

 

88.9

 

94.4

 

Mortgage Guaranty

 

9.2

 

9.9

 

17.5

 

22.7

 

Total Financial Guaranty

 

$

67.6

 

$

58.5

 

$

232.0

 

$

206.7

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Ratio of net claims paid by segment:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Financial Guaranty Direct

 

0.5

%

(5.0

)%

(0.9

)%

1.9

%

Financial Guaranty Reinsurance

 

14.3

%

16.8

%

(9.3

)%

12.4

%

Mortgage Guaranty

 

0.0

%

0.0

%

0.0

%

1.3

%

Total Financial Guaranty

 

4.9

%

4.3

%

(4.1

)%

6.6

%

 

 

12



 

Assured Guaranty Ltd.

Investment Portfolio

as of December 31, 2007

(dollars in millions)

 

 

 

 

 

Pre-Tax

 

After-Tax

 

 

 

Annualized

 

 

 

Amortized

 

Book

 

Book

 

 

 

Investment

 

 

 

Cost

 

Yield

 

Yield

 

Fair Value

 

Income

 

Fixed maturity securities available for sale:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

U.S. Treasury securities and obligations of U.S. government agencies

 

$

169.6

 

4.5

%

3.9

%

$

176.7

 

$

7.6

 

Agency obligations

 

127.9

 

5.4

%

5.1

%

134.3

 

6.9

 

Foreign government securities

 

71.4

 

5.2

%

3.4

%

73.1

 

3.7

 

Obligations of states and political subdivisions

 

464.5

 

4.7

%

4.4

%

476.9

 

21.7

 

Insured obligations of state and political subdivisions(1)

 

578.5

 

4.8

%

4.6

%

601.9

 

27.8

 

Corporate securities

 

179.4

 

5.7

%

4.9

%

182.8

 

10.3

 

Mortgage-backed securities(2):

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Pass-throughs

 

788.5

 

5.4

%

4.8

%

793.8

 

42.7

 

PACs

 

71.1

 

5.0

%

4.7

%

71.0

 

3.5

 

Asset-backed securities(3)

 

68.1

 

5.2

%

4.4

%

68.4

 

3.5

 

Redeemable preferred stock

 

7.9

 

8.2

%

5.3

%

8.1

 

0.6

 

Total fixed maturity securities available for sale

 

2,526.9

 

5.1

%

4.6

%

2,587.0

 

128.4

 

Short-term investments

 

552.9

 

4.4

%

4.2

%

552.9

 

24.3

 

Total investments

 

$

3,079.8

 

5.0

%

4.5

%

$

3,139.9

 

$

152.7

 

 

Ratings(4):

 

Fair Value

 

%

 

Treasury and U.S. government obligations

 

$

176.7

 

6.8

%

Agency obligations

 

134.3

 

5.2

%

AAA/Aaa

 

1,756.0

 

67.9

%

AA/Aa

 

403.6

 

15.6

%

A/A

 

116.4

 

4.5

%

Total

 

$

2,587.0

 

100.0

%

 

 

 

 

 

 

Duration of investment portfolio (in years):

 

 

 

3.9

 


(1) Reflects obligations of state and local political subdivisions that have been insured by other financial guarantors. The underlying ratings of these bonds average A+.

(2) $10.8 million is U.S. subprime RMBS, which has an average rating of AAA.

(3) Contains no CDOs of ABS.

(4) Ratings are represented by the lower of the Moody’s Investor Services and Standard & Poor’s classifications.

 

13



 

Assured Guaranty Ltd.

Estimated Net Exposure Amortization(1)

(dollars in millions)

 

 

 

 

 

Estimated

 

 

 

Estimated Net

 

Ending Net

 

 

 

Debt Service

 

Debt Service

 

 

 

Amortization

 

Outstanding

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Financial Guaranty Direct:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2007 (as of December 31)

 

 

 

$

133,528

 

2008

 

$

10,181

 

123,348

 

2009

 

8,208

 

115,140

 

2010

 

10,671

 

104,469

 

2011

 

9,060

 

95,408

 

2012

 

14,266

 

81,142

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2008-2012

 

52,386

 

81,142

 

2013-2017

 

50,052

 

31,090

 

2018-2022

 

10,304

 

20,786

 

2023-2027

 

4,632

 

16,154

 

After 2027

 

16,154

 

 

Total

 

$

133,528

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Financial Guaranty Reinsurance:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2007 (as of December 31)

 

 

 

$

168,885

 

2008

 

$

7,586

 

161,299

 

2009

 

8,205

 

153,093

 

2010

 

7,508

 

145,586

 

2011

 

7,987

 

137,599

 

2012

 

7,212

 

130,387

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2008-2012

 

38,497

 

130,387

 

2013-2017

 

35,228

 

95,160

 

2018-2022

 

30,578

 

64,582

 

2023-2027

 

23,697

 

40,885

 

After 2027

 

40,885

 

 

Total

 

$

168,885

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Total Financial Guaranty:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2007 (as of December 31)

 

 

 

$

302,413

 

2008

 

$

17,766

 

284,647

 

2009

 

16,414

 

268,233

 

2010

 

18,178

 

250,055

 

2011

 

17,047

 

233,007

 

2012

 

21,478

 

211,529

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2008-2012

 

90,884

 

211,529

 

2013-2017

 

85,279

 

126,250

 

2018-2022

 

40,882

 

85,368

 

2023-2027

 

28,330

 

57,039

 

After 2027

 

57,039

 

 

Total

 

$

302,413

 

 

 


(1) Represents amortization of existing guaranteed portfolio (principal and interest), assuming no advance refundings, as of December 31, 2007. Expected maturities will differ from contractual maturities because borrowers may have the right to call or prepay guaranteed obligations.

 

14



 

Assured Guaranty Ltd.

Estimated Net Unearned Premium Amortization and Estimated Future Installment Premiums

(dollars in millions)

 

 

 

Net Unearned
Premiums(1)

 

Estimated

Net Unearned
Premium
Amortization

 

Estimated
Net Future
Installments

 

Total Estimated
Net Future
Premium
Earnings

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Financial Guaranty Direct:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2007 (as of December 31)

 

$

244.0

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2008

 

213.7

 

$

30.3

 

$

118.3

 

$

148.6

 

2009

 

203.4

 

10.3

 

124.4

 

134.8

 

2010

 

193.5

 

9.9

 

111.4

 

121.2

 

2011

 

184.2

 

9.4

 

100.5

 

109.8

 

2012

 

175.0

 

9.2

 

86.1

 

95.3

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2008-2012

 

175.0

 

69.0

 

540.8

 

609.7

 

2013-2017

 

135.7

 

39.3

 

179.6

 

218.9

 

2018-2022

 

103.9

 

31.8

 

47.5

 

79.3

 

2023-2027

 

77.7

 

26.2

 

26.4

 

52.6

 

After 2027

 

 

77.7

 

39.5

 

117.2

 

Total

 

 

 

$

244.0

 

$

833.8

 

$

1,077.8

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Financial Guaranty Reinsurance:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2007 (as of December 31)

 

$

626.3

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2008

 

569.9

 

$

56.4

 

$

43.8

 

$

100.2

 

2009

 

522.8

 

47.1

 

45.4

 

92.4

 

2010

 

480.4

 

42.4

 

44.1

 

86.6

 

2011

 

440.7

 

39.7

 

39.4

 

79.0

 

2012

 

403.8

 

37.0

 

34.1

 

71.0

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2008-2012

 

403.8

 

222.5

 

206.8

 

429.3

 

2013-2017

 

251.3

 

152.4

 

131.5

 

284.0

 

2018-2022

 

147.5

 

103.8

 

96.5

 

200.3

 

2023-2027

 

78.6

 

68.9

 

69.8

 

138.7

 

After 2027

 

 

78.6

 

102.9

 

181.4

 

Total

 

 

 

$

626.2

 

$

607.4

 

$

1,233.7

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Total Financial Guaranty:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2007 (as of December 31)

 

$

870.3

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2008

 

783.6

 

$

86.6

 

$

162.2

 

$

248.8

 

2009

 

726.2

 

57.4

 

169.8

 

227.2

 

2010

 

673.9

 

52.3

 

155.5

 

207.8

 

2011

 

624.9

 

49.0

 

139.8

 

188.9

 

2012

 

578.8

 

46.1

 

120.2

 

166.4

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2008-2012

 

578.8

 

291.5

 

747.5

 

1,039.0

 

2013-2017

 

387.1

 

191.7

 

311.2

 

502.9

 

2018-2022

 

251.4

 

135.7

 

144.0

 

279.6

 

2023-2027

 

156.3

 

95.1

 

96.2

 

191.3

 

After 2027

 

 

156.2

 

142.4

 

298.6

 

Total

 

 

 

$

870.2

 

$

1,441.3

 

$

2,311.5

 

 


(1)

Unearned premium amounts are U.S. GAAP based and net of prepaid reinsurance premiums.

 

15



 

Assured Guaranty Ltd.

Financial Guaranty Profile (1 of 13)

As of December 31, 2007

(dollars in millions)

 

Net Par Outstanding and Average Rating by Asset Type

 

 

 

Financial Guaranty
Direct

 

Financial Guaranty
Reinsurance

 

Consolidated

 

Sector:

 

Net Par
Outstanding

 

Avg.
Rating(1)

 

Net Par

Outstanding

 

Avg.

Rating(1)

 

Net Par
Outstanding

 

Avg.
Rating(1)

 

U.S. public finance

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

General obligation

 

$

2,081

 

A

 

$

18,209

 

A+

 

$

20,291

 

A+

 

Tax backed

 

1,941

 

BBB+

 

15,857

 

A+

 

17,799

 

A+

 

Municipal utilities

 

247

 

BBB+

 

11,426

 

A+

 

11,672

 

A+

 

Healthcare

 

2,182

 

A-

 

8,190

 

A+

 

10,372

 

A

 

Transportation

 

427

 

A+

 

9,557

 

A

 

9,984

 

A

 

Higher education

 

576

 

BBB

 

3,075

 

A+

 

3,651

 

A+

 

Investor-owned utilities

 

39

 

AAA

 

2,275

 

BBB+

 

2,314

 

BBB+

 

Housing

 

 

 

2,041

 

A+

 

2,041

 

A+

 

Other public finance

 

11

 

BBB

 

3,779

 

A+

 

3,790

 

A+

 

Total U.S. public finance

 

$

7, 504

 

A-

 

$

74,409

 

A+

 

$

81,914

 

A+

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

U.S. structured finance

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Pooled corporate obligations

 

$

32,780

 

AAA

 

$

1,033

 

AA+

 

$

33,813

 

AAA

 

Prime mortgage-backed and home equity

 

9,919

 

AA-

 

1,319

 

A-

 

11,238

 

AA-

 

Subprime mortgage-backed and home equity

 

6,738

 

AAA

 

273

 

A+

 

7,010

 

AA+

 

Consumer receivables

 

5,091

 

AA+

 

1,498

 

A

 

6,589

 

AA

 

Commercial mortgage-backed securities

 

5,764

 

AAA

 

238

 

A

 

6,002

 

AA+

 

Commercial receivables

 

2,129

 

AA+

 

3,118

 

A-

 

5,246

 

A+

 

Structured credit

 

1,084

 

A-

 

488

 

BBB+

 

1,572

 

A-

 

Insurance securitizations

 

804

 

AA-

 

354

 

AA

 

1,158

 

AA-

 

Other structured finance

 

643

 

AAA

 

548

 

A

 

1,191

 

AA

 

Total U.S. structured finance

 

$

64,950

 

AA+

 

$

8,869

 

A

 

$

73,820

 

AA+

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

International

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Infrastructure and pooled infrastructure

 

$

7,165

 

AAA

 

$

4,395

 

BBB+

 

$

11,561

 

AA-

 

Pooled corporate obligations

 

7,527

 

AAA

 

932

 

AAA

 

8,459

 

AAA

 

Regulated utilities

 

4,015

 

A+

 

4,322

 

BBB+

 

8,337

 

A-

 

Mortgage-backed and home equity

 

6,992

 

AAA

 

336

 

AA

 

7,329

 

AAA

 

Public finance

 

868

 

AA

 

1,128

 

A

 

1,996

 

A+

 

Commercial receivables

 

986

 

A-

 

926

 

A-

 

1,913

 

A-

 

Commercial mortgage-backed securities

 

832

 

AAA

 

408

 

A+

 

1,240

 

AA+

 

Future flow

 

713

 

BBB+

 

400

 

A-

 

1,113

 

BBB+

 

Insurance securitizations

 

772

 

BBB-

 

84

 

A

 

857

 

BBB-

 

Structured credit

 

 

 

592

 

A-

 

592

 

A-

 

Consumer receivables

 

 

 

357

 

AA+

 

357

 

AA+

 

Other international structured finance

 

695

 

AAA

 

99

 

BBB+

 

794

 

AA+

 

Total international

 

$

30,566

 

AA+

 

$

13,980

 

A-

 

$

44,546

 

AA-

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Total net par outstanding

 

$

103,021

 

AA+

 

$

97,258

 

A+

 

$

200,279

 

AA-

 

 


(1) Assured’s internal rating. Assured’s scale is comparable to that of the nationally recognized rating agencies. The super senior category, which is not generally used by rating agencies, is used by the Company in instances where Assured’s AAA-rated exposure has additional credit enhancement due to either (1) the existence of another security rated AAA that is subordinated to Assured’s exposure or (2) Assured’s exposure benefits from a different form of credit enhancement that would pay any claims first in the event that any of the exposures incurs a loss, and such credit enhancement, in management’s opinion, causes Assured’s attachment point to be materially above the AAA attachment point.

 

Please refer to Glossary for description of selected types of U.S. public finance, U.S. structured finance and International obligations that the Company insures and reinsures.

 

16



 

Assured Guaranty Ltd.

Financial Guaranty Profile (2 of 13)

(dollars in millions)

 

Historical Net Par Outstanding and Average Rating by Asset Type

 

 

 

As of December 31,

 

 

 

2007

 

2006

 

2005

 

Sector:

 

Net Par
Outstanding

 

Avg.
Rating(1)

 

Net Par
Outstanding

 

Avg.
Rating(1)

 

Net Par

Outstanding

 

Avg.

Rating(1)

 

U.S. public finance

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

General obligation

 

$

20,291

 

A+

 

$

12,700

 

A+

 

$

11,965

 

A+

 

Tax backed

 

17,799

 

A+

 

11,812

 

A+

 

10,671

 

A+

 

Municipal utilities

 

11,672

 

A+

 

9,673

 

A+

 

10,378

 

A+

 

Healthcare

 

10,372

 

A

 

6,580

 

A

 

6,003

 

A

 

Transportation

 

9,984

 

A

 

6,302

 

A

 

6,407

 

A

 

Higher education

 

3,651

 

A+

 

1,282

 

A

 

1,177

 

A

 

Investor-owned utilities

 

2,314

 

BBB+

 

1,580

 

BBB+

 

1,431

 

A-

 

Housing

 

2,041

 

A+

 

1,083

 

AA-

 

1,148

 

AA-

 

Other public finance

 

3,790

 

A+

 

1,323

 

AA-

 

1,587

 

AA

 

Total U.S. public finance

 

$

81,914

 

A+

 

$

52,335

 

A+

 

$

50,769

 

A+

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

U.S. structured finance

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Pooled corporate obligations

 

$

33,813

 

AAA

 

$

25,604

 

AAA

 

$

19,177

 

AAA

 

Prime mortgage-backed and home equity

 

11,238

 

AA-

 

4,849

 

A

 

5,451

 

A

 

Subprime mortgage-backed and home equity

 

7,010

 

AA+

 

6,390

 

AA+

 

4,221

 

AA+

 

Consumer receivables

 

6,589

 

AA

 

2,663

 

AA-

 

2,413

 

A

 

Commercial mortgage-backed securities

 

6,002

 

AA+

 

5,430

 

AAA

 

2,343

 

AAA

 

Commercial receivables

 

5,246

 

A+

 

2,450

 

A-

 

2,015

 

BBB+

 

Structured credit

 

1,572

 

A-

 

1,553

 

AA+

 

1,123

 

AA

 

Insurance securitizations

 

1,158

 

AA-

 

794

 

AA-

 

 

 

Other structured finance

 

1,191

 

AA

 

1,852

 

AA

 

1,835

 

AA

 

Total U.S. structured finance

 

$

73,820

 

AA+

 

$

51,583

 

AA+

 

$

38,578

 

AA

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

International

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Infrastructure and pooled infrastructure

 

$

11,561

 

AA-

 

$

8,256

 

AA-

 

$

3,461

 

A-

 

Pooled corporate obligations

 

8,459

 

AAA

 

3,563

 

AAA

 

2,111

 

AAA

 

Regulated utilities

 

8,337

 

A-

 

4,780

 

A-

 

 

 

Mortgage-backed and home equity

 

7,329

 

AAA

 

4,982

 

AAA

 

2,139

 

AA+

 

Public finance

 

1,996

 

A+

 

1,202

 

A+

 

1,456

 

A

 

Commercial receivables

 

1,913

 

A-

 

1,081

 

A-

 

921

 

A-

 

Commercial mortgage-backed securities

 

1,240

 

AA+

 

1,087

 

AAA

 

112

 

AA+

 

Future flow

 

1,113

 

BBB+

 

1,008

 

BBB

 

931

 

BBB

 

Insurance securitizations

 

857

 

BBB-

 

923

 

A-

 

 

 

Structured credit

 

592

 

A-

 

593

 

A

 

1,159

 

A-

 

Consumer receivables

 

357

 

AA+

 

114

 

BBB+

 

145

 

BBB+

 

Other international structured finance

 

794

 

AA+

 

788

 

AA+

 

684

 

AA+

 

Total international

 

$

44,546

 

AA-

 

$

28,378

 

AA-

 

$

13,118

 

A+

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Total exposures

 

$

200,279

 

AA-

 

$

132,296

 

AA-

 

$

102,465

 

AA-

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Mortgage guaranty risk in force

 

$

1,116

 

N/A

 

$

1,822

 

N/A

 

$

2,332

 

N/A

 

 

Distribution by ratings of financial guaranty portfolio

 

 

 

December 31, 2007

 

December 31, 2006

 

December 31, 2005

 

Ratings(1):

 

Net Par
Outstanding

 

%

 

Net Par
Outstanding

 

%

 

Net Par
Outstanding

 

%

 

Super senior

 

$

36,359

 

18.2

%

$

16,228

 

12.3

%

$

4,784

 

4.7

%

AAA

 

47,333

 

23.6

%

40,826

 

30.9

%

29,947

 

29.2

%

AA

 

38,434

 

19.2

%

22,983

 

17.4

%

19,738

 

19.3

%

A

 

49,177

 

24.6

%

32,822

 

24.9

%

30,258

 

29.5

%

BBB

 

26,862

 

13.4

%

18,182

 

13.7

%

16,404

 

16.0

%

Below investment grade

 

2,114

 

1.1

%

1,255

 

0.9

%

1,333

 

1.3

%

Total exposures

 

$

200,279

 

100.0

%

$

132,296

 

100.0

%

$

102,465

 

100.0

%

 


(1) Assured’s internal rating. Assured’s scale is comparable to that of the nationally recognized rating agencies. The super senior category, which is not generally used by rating agencies, is used by the Company in instances where Assured’s AAA-rated exposure has additional credit enhancement due to either (1) the existence of another security rated AAA that is subordinated to Assured’s exposure or (2) Assured’s exposure benefits from a different form of credit enhancement that would pay any claims first in the event that any of the exposures incurs a loss, and such credit enhancement, in management’s opinion, causes Assured’s attachment point to be materially above the AAA attachment point.

 

 

Please refer to Glossary for description of selected types of U.S. public finance, U.S. structured finance and International obligations that the Company insures and reinsures.

 

17



 

Assured Guaranty Ltd.

Financial Guaranty Profile (3 of 13)

(dollars in millions)

 

Gross Par Written by Asset Type

 

 

 

Financial
Guaranty
Direct

 

Avg.
Rating(1)

 

Financial
Guaranty
Reinsurance

 

Avg.
Rating(1)

 

Consolidated

 

Avg.
Rating(1)

 

Sector:

 

4Q-07

 

4Q-07

 

4Q-07

 

U.S. public finance

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

General obligation

 

$

853

 

A-

 

$

6,415

 

AA-

 

$

7,268

 

A+

 

Tax backed

 

327

 

A-

 

5,727

 

A+

 

6,054

 

A+

 

Healthcare

 

525

 

A

 

2,990

 

A+

 

3,515

 

A+

 

Transportation

 

404

 

A+

 

2,705

 

A+

 

3,108

 

A+

 

Municipal utilities

 

64

 

BBB+

 

2,479

 

A+

 

2,543

 

A+

 

Higher education

 

98

 

BBB

 

2,123

 

A+

 

2,220

 

A+

 

Housing

 

 

 

1,065

 

A+

 

1,065

 

A+

 

Investor-owned utilities

 

 

 

646

 

BBB+

 

646

 

BBB+

 

Other public finance

 

 

 

2,449

 

A+

 

2,449

 

A+

 

Total U.S. public finance

 

$

 2,271

 

A

 

$

 26,598

 

A+

 

$

 28,869

 

A+

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

U.S. structured finance

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Consumer receivables

 

$

1,852

 

A+

 

$

1,127

 

A+

 

$

2,979

 

A+

 

Prime mortgage-backed and home equity

 

2,532

 

AAA

 

82

 

AAA

 

2,614

 

AAA

 

Commercial receivables

 

695

 

AA

 

1,055

 

A-

 

1,750

 

A

 

Pooled corporate obligations

 

1,543

 

AAA

 

39

 

AAA

 

1,582

 

AAA

 

Commercial mortgage-backed securities

 

1,316

 

AA+

 

150

 

A-

 

1,466

 

AA

 

Structured credit

 

705

 

BBB-

 

325

 

BBB-

 

1,030

 

BBB-

 

Insurance securitizations

 

 

 

238

 

AA

 

238

 

AA

 

Subprime mortgage-backed and home equity

 

 

 

4

 

AAA

 

4

 

AAA

 

Other structured finance

 

 

 

175

 

A-

 

175

 

A-

 

Total U.S. structured finance

 

$

 8,644

 

AA

 

$

 3,195

 

A

 

$

 11,839

 

AA-

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

International

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Infrastructure and pooled infrastructure

 

$

1,804

 

AA+

 

$

1,017

 

BBB+

 

$

2,821

 

AA-

 

Mortgage-backed and home equity

 

2,027

 

AAA

 

1

 

AAA

 

2,028

 

AAA

 

Regulated utilities

 

102

 

BBB+

 

850

 

BBB+

 

951

 

BBB+

 

Public finance

 

 

 

636

 

A-

 

636

 

A-

 

Pooled corporate obligations

 

575

 

AAA

 

3

 

AAA

 

577

 

AAA

 

Commercial receivables

 

 

 

441

 

A-

 

441

 

A-

 

Commercial mortgage-backed securities

 

 

 

315

 

A+

 

315

 

A+

 

Consumer receivables

 

 

 

265

 

AA+

 

265

 

AA+

 

Future flow

 

82

 

AAA

 

170

 

BBB+

 

252

 

A+

 

Structured credit

 

 

 

110

 

A

 

110

 

A

 

Insurance securitizations

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Other international structured finance

 

 

 

81

 

BBB

 

81

 

BBB

 

Total international

 

$

 4,589

 

AAA

 

$

 3,888

 

A-

 

$

 8,478

 

AA-

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Total gross par written

 

$

 15,505

 

AA

 

$

 33,681

 

A+

 

$

 49,186

 

A+

 

 

 

 

 

(1) Assured’s internal rating.  Assured’s scale is comparable to that of the nationally recognized rating agencies.  The super senior category, which is not generally used by rating agencies, is used by the Company in instances where Assured’s AAA-rated exposure has additional credit enhancement due to either (1) the existence of another security rated AAA that is subordinated to Assured’s exposure or (2) Assured’s exposure benefits from a different form of credit enhancement that would pay any claims first in the event that any of the exposures incurs a loss, and such credit enhancement, in management’s opinion, causes Assured’s attachment point to be materially above the AAA attachment point.

 

Please refer to Glossary for description of selected types of U.S. public finance, U.S. structured finance and International obligations that the Company insures and reinsures.

 

 

18



 

Assured Guaranty Ltd.

Financial Guaranty Profile (4 of 13)

(dollars in millions)

 

Gross Par Written by Asset Type

 

 

 

Financial
Guaranty
Direct

 

Avg.
Rating(1)

 

Financial
Guaranty
Reinsurance

 

Avg.
Rating(1)

 

Consolidated

 

Avg.
Rating(1)

 

Sector:

 

Full Year 2007

 

Full Year 2007

 

Full Year 2007

 

U.S. public finance

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

General obligation

 

$

1,196

 

A-

 

$

7,542

 

AA-

 

$

8,738

 

A+

 

Tax backed

 

1,189

 

BBB+

 

6,801

 

A+

 

7,989

 

A

 

Healthcare

 

1,138

 

A

 

3,425

 

A+

 

4,563

 

A+

 

Transportation

 

404

 

A+

 

3,221

 

A+

 

3,625

 

A+

 

Municipal utilities

 

127

 

BBB+

 

2,960

 

A+

 

3,087

 

A+

 

Higher education

 

227

 

BBB+

 

2,302

 

A+

 

2,528

 

A+

 

Housing

 

 

 

1,067

 

A+

 

1,067

 

A+

 

Investor-owned utilities

 

 

 

775

 

BBB+

 

775

 

BBB+

 

Other public finance

 

 

 

2,450

 

A+

 

2,450

 

A+

 

Total U.S. public finance

 

$

 4,281

 

A-

 

$

 30,541

 

A+

 

$

 34,822

 

A+

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

U.S. structured finance

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Pooled corporate obligations

 

$

14,381

 

AAA

 

$

327

 

AAA

 

$

14,708

 

AAA

 

Prime mortgage-backed and home equity

 

8,172

 

AA

 

451

 

A-

 

8,623

 

AA

 

Consumer receivables

 

3,752

 

AA

 

1,250

 

A

 

5,002

 

AA-

 

Commercial receivables

 

850

 

AA

 

1,592

 

A

 

2,442

 

A+

 

Subprime mortgage-backed and home equity

 

1,592

 

AA+

 

129

 

AA+

 

1,721

 

AA+

 

Commercial mortgage-backed securities

 

1,316

 

AA+

 

150

 

A-

 

1,466

 

AA

 

Structured credit

 

733

 

BBB-

 

325

 

BBB-

 

1,058

 

BBB-

 

Insurance securitizations

 

550

 

AA

 

255

 

AA

 

805

 

AA

 

Other structured finance

 

 

 

175

 

A-

 

175

 

A-

 

Total U.S. structured finance

 

$

 31,346

 

AA+

 

$

 4,655

 

A

 

$

 36,001

 

AA

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

International

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Pooled corporate obligations

 

$

5,209

 

AAA

 

$

149

 

AAA

 

$

5,357

 

AAA

 

Infrastructure and pooled infrastructure

 

1,961

 

AA+

 

1,382

 

BBB+

 

3,344

 

AA-

 

Regulated utilities

 

1,775

 

A

 

1,374

 

BBB+

 

3,149

 

A-

 

Mortgage-backed and home equity

 

2,723

 

AAA

 

21

 

AAA

 

2,744

 

AAA

 

Commercial receivables

 

418

 

BBB+

 

442

 

A-

 

859

 

BBB+

 

Public finance

 

 

 

737

 

A-

 

737

 

A-

 

Consumer receivables

 

 

 

346

 

AA+

 

346

 

AA+

 

Commercial mortgage-backed securities

 

 

 

315

 

A+

 

315

 

A+

 

Future flow

 

82

 

AAA

 

170

 

BBB+

 

252

 

A+

 

Structured credit

 

 

 

110

 

A

 

110

 

A

 

Insurance securitizations

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Other international structured finance

 

 

 

81

 

BBB

 

81

 

BBB

 

Total international

 

$

 12,167

 

AA+

 

$

 5,127

 

A-

 

$

 17,294

 

AA-

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Total gross par written

 

$

 47,795

 

AA

 

$

 40,323

 

A+

 

$

 88,117

 

AA-

 

 

 

 

 

(1) Assured’s internal rating.  Assured’s scale is comparable to that of the nationally recognized rating agencies.  The super senior category, which is not generally used by rating agencies, is used by the Company in instances where Assured’s AAA-rated exposure has additional credit enhancement due to either (1) the existence of another security rated AAA that is subordinated to Assured’s exposure or (2) Assured’s exposure benefits from a different form of credit enhancement that would pay any claims first in the event that any of the exposures incurs a loss, and such credit enhancement, in management’s opinion, causes Assured’s attachment point to be materially above the AAA attachment point.

 

Please refer to Glossary for description of selected types of U.S. public finance, U.S. structured finance and International obligations that the Company insures and reinsures.

 

19



 

Assured Guaranty Ltd.

Financial Guaranty Profile (5 of 13)

(dollars in millions)

 

 

Distribution by Ratings of Financial Guaranty Portfolio

 

 

 

As of December 31, 2007

 

 

 

Financial
Guaranty
Direct

 

Financial
Guaranty
Reinsurance

 

Consolidated

 

Ratings(1):

 

Net Par
Outstanding

 

%

 

Net Par
Outstanding

 

%

 

Net Par
Outstanding

 

%

 

Super senior

 

$

 36,359

 

35.3

%

$

 —

 

 

$

 36,359

 

18.2

%

AAA

 

41,716

 

40.5

%

5,617

 

5.8

%

47,333

 

23.6

%

AA

 

5,576

 

5.4

%

32,858

 

33.8

%

38,434

 

19.2

%

A

 

9,873

 

9.6

%

39,304

 

40.4

%

49,177

 

24.6

%

BBB

 

7,970

 

7.7

%

18,892

 

19.4

%

26,862

 

13.4

%

Below investment grade

 

1,526

 

1.5

%

588

 

0.6

%

2,114

 

1.1

%

Total exposures

 

$

 103,021

 

100.0

%

$

 97,258

 

100.0

%

$

 200,279

 

100.0

%

 

 

 

 

 

 

As of December 31, 2006

 

 

 

Financial
Guaranty
Direct

 

Financial
Guaranty
Reinsurance

 

Consolidated

 

Ratings(1):

 

Net Par
Outstanding

 

%

 

Net Par
Outstanding

 

%

 

Net Par
Outstanding

 

%

 

Super senior

 

$

 16,228

 

23.9

%

$

 —

 

 

$

 16,228

 

12.3

%

AAA

 

36,378

 

53.6

%

4,448

 

6.9

%

40,826

 

30.9

%

AA

 

4,028

 

5.9

%

18,955

 

29.4

%

22,983

 

17.4

%

A

 

5,757

 

8.5

%

27,065

 

42.0

%

32,822

 

24.9

%

BBB

 

5,351

 

7.9

%

12,831

 

19.9

%

18,182

 

13.7

%

Below investment grade

 

92

 

0.1

%

1,163

 

1.8

%

1,255

 

0.9

%

Total exposures

 

$

 67,834

 

100.0

%

$

 64,462

 

100.0

%

$

 132,296

 

100.0

%

 

 

 

As of December 31, 2007

 

 

 

U.S. Public Finance

 

U.S. Structured Finance

 

International

 

Consolidated

 

Ratings(1):

 

Net Par
Outstanding

 

%

 

Net Par
Outstanding

 

%

 

Net Par
Outstanding

 

%

 

Net Par
Outstanding

 

%

 

Super senior

 

$

 

 

$

22,098

 

29.9

%

$

14,261

 

32.0

%

$

36,359

 

18.2

%

AAA

 

1,777

 

2.2

%

34,370

 

46.6

%

11,185

 

25.1

%

47,333

 

23.6

%

AA

 

31,750

 

38.8

%

4,676

 

6.3

%

2,008

 

4.5

%

38,434

 

19.2

%

A

 

37,604

 

45.9

%

5,302

 

7.2

%

6,271

 

14.1

%

49,177

 

24.7

%

BBB

 

10,608

 

13.0

%

5,479

 

7.4

%

10,776

 

24.2

%

26,862

 

13.4

%

Below investment grade

 

174

 

0.2

%

1,894

 

2.6

%

45

 

0.1

%

2,114

 

1.1

%

Total exposures

 

$ 81,914

 

100.0

%

$ 73,820

 

100.0

%

$ 44,546

 

100.0

%

$ 200,279

 

100.0

%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

As of December 31, 2006

 

 

 

U.S. Public Finance

 

U.S. Structured Finance

 

International

 

Consolidated

 

Ratings(1):

 

Net Par
Outstanding

 

%

 

Net Par
Outstanding

 

%

 

Net Par
Outstanding

 

%

 

Net Par
Outstanding

 

%

 

Super senior

 

$

 

 

$

14,397

 

27.9

%

$

1,831

 

6.5

%

$

16,228

 

12.3

%

AAA

 

1,424

 

2.7

%

25,456

 

49.3

%

13,947

 

49.1

%

40,826

 

30.9

%

AA

 

18,274

 

34.9

%

3,599

 

7.0

%

1,110

 

3.9

%

22,983

 

17.4

%

A

 

24,769

 

47.3

%

2,911

 

5.6

%

5,142

 

18.1

%

32,822

 

24.9

%

BBB

 

7,384

 

14.1

%

4,729

 

9.2

%

6,069

 

21.4

%

18,182

 

13.7

%

Below investment grade

 

485

 

0.9

%

491

 

1.0

%

280

 

1.0

%

1,255

 

0.9

%

Total exposures

 

$ 52,335

 

100.0

%

$ 51,583

 

100.0

%

$ 28,378

 

100.0

%

$ 132,296

 

100.0

%

 

 

 

 

(1) Assured’s internal rating.  Assured’s scale is comparable to that of the nationally recognized rating agencies.  The super senior category, which is not generally used by rating agencies, is used by the Company in instances where Assured’s AAA-rated exposure has additional credit enhancement due to either (1) the existence of another security rated AAA that is subordinated to Assured’s exposure or (2) Assured’s exposure benefits from a different form of credit enhancement that would pay any claims first in the event that any of the exposures incurs a loss, and such credit enhancement, in management’s opinion, causes Assured’s attachment point to be materially above the AAA attachment point.

 

20


 


 

Assured Guaranty Ltd.

Financial Guaranty Profile (6 of 13)

(dollars in millions)

 

Geographic Distribution of Financial Guaranty Portfolio as of December 31, 2007

 

U.S.:

 

Net Par
Outstanding

 

%

 

 

California

 

$

13,068

 

6.5

%

 

New York

 

7,351

 

3.7

%

 

Florida

 

6,403

 

3.2

%

 

Texas

 

4,718

 

2.4

%

 

Illinois

 

4,243

 

2.1

%

 

Massachusetts

 

3,763

 

1.9

%

 

Pennsylvania

 

3,509

 

1.8

%

 

New Jersey

 

2,613

 

1.3

%

 

Washington

 

2,540

 

1.3

%

 

Michigan

 

2,300

 

1.1

%

 

Other states

 

31,405

 

15.7

%

 

Mortgage and structured (multiple states)

 

73,820

 

36.9

%

 

Total U.S.

 

$

155,733

 

77.8

%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

International:

 

 

 

 

 

 

United Kingdom

 

$

25,133

 

12.5

%

 

Germany

 

4,386

 

2.2

%

 

Australia

 

3,086

 

1.5

%

 

Italy

 

899

 

0.4

%

 

Turkey

 

822

 

0.4

%

 

Other

 

10,220

 

5.1

%

 

Total International

 

$

44,546

 

22.2

%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Total exposures

 

$

200,279

 

100.0

%

 

 

21



 

Assured Guaranty Ltd.

Financial Guaranty Profile (7 of 13)

(dollars in millions)

 

Distribution by Ratings of Direct Pooled Corporate Obligations as of December 31, 2007

 

Ratings(1):

 

Net Par
Outstanding

 

%

 

Avg. Initial Credit
Enhancement(2)

 

Avg. Current
Enhancement(2)

 

AAA

 

$

37,364

 

92.7

%

35.9%

 

35.1%

 

AA

 

2,941

 

7.3

%

34.5%

 

31.0%

 

A

 

 

 

 

 

BBB

 

2

 

 

10.4%

 

36.0%

 

Below investment grade

 

 

 

 

 

Total exposures

 

$

40,307

 

100.0

%

35.8%

 

34.8 %

 

 

 

 

Distribution of Direct Pooled Corporate Obligations by Year Insured as of December 31, 2007

 

Year insured:

 

Net Par

Outstanding

 

%

 

Avg. Initial Credit
Enhancement(2)

 

Avg. Current
Enhancement(2)

 

2000 and prior

 

$

11

 

 

27.8%

 

44.4

%

 

2001

 

228

 

0.6

%

11.9%

 

12.5

%

 

2002

 

141

 

0.3

%

12.6%

 

24.3

%

 

2003

 

1,440

 

3.6

%

21.6%

 

21.2

%

 

2004

 

1,560

 

3.9

%

33.7%

 

35.2

%

 

2005

 

7,545

 

18.7

%

35.8%

 

34.0

%

 

2006

 

13,359

 

33.1

%

36.4%

 

34.3

%

 

2007

 

16,023

 

39.8

%

37.4%

 

37.2

%

 

 

 

$

40,307

 

100.0

%

35.8%

 

34.8

%

 

 

 

 

Distribution of Direct Pooled Corporate Obligations by Asset Class as of December 31, 2007

 

Asset class:

 

Net Par
Outstanding

 

%

 

Average Rating(1)

 

Avg. Initial Credit
Enhancement(2)

 

Avg. Current
Enhancement(2)

 

High yield corporates

 

$

23,722

 

58.9

%

AAA

 

33.8%

 

32.7%

 

Trust preferred

 

7,808

 

19.4

%

AAA

 

45.7%

 

45.1%

 

Market value CDOs of corporates

 

4,260

 

10.6

%

AAA

 

37.7%

 

34.7%

 

Investment grade corporates

 

3,384

 

8.4

%

AAA

 

23.2%

 

23.6%

 

Commercial real estate

 

745

 

1.8

%

AAA

 

43.5%

 

43.9%

 

CDO of CDOs (corporate)

 

389

 

1.0

%

AAA

 

33.0%

 

33.7%

 

 

 

$

40,307

 

100.0

%

AAA

 

35.8%

 

34.8%

 

 


(1) Assured’s internal rating.  Assured’s scale is comparable to that of the nationally recognized rating agencies.  The super senior category, which is not generally used by rating agencies, is used by the Company in instances where Assured’s AAA-rated exposure has additional credit enhancement due to either (1) the existence of another security rated AAA that is subordinated to Assured’s exposure or (2) Assured’s exposure benefits from a different form of credit enhancement that would pay any claims first in the event that any of the exposures incurs a loss, and such credit enhancement, in management’s opinion, causes Assured’s attachment point to be materially above the AAA attachment point.

 

(2) “Average Credit Enhancement” is intended to provide a measure of the amount of equity and/or subordinate tranches that are junior in the capital structure to Assured’s exposure, and reflects any reduction of that credit support resulting from defaults or other factors. For transactions where excess spread may be available to absorb certain losses, the numbers shown above do not include any benefit from excess spread. The calculation methodologies differ for the various asset classes to reflect differences in transaction structures in order to provide a measure that that management believes is comparable across asset classes. Data is obtained from third-party sources such as trustee reports and may be subject to misstatement or correction.

 

22



 

Assured Guaranty Ltd.

Financial Guaranty Profile (8 of 13)

(dollars in millions)

 

Distribution by Ratings(1) of Residential Mortgage-Backed Securities by Category as of December 31, 2007

 

 

 

December 31, 2007

 

 

 

US

 

International

 

 

 

 

 

Ratings(1)

 

Prime

 

Subprime

 

Prime

 

Subprime

 

Total Net Par
Outstanding

 

% of Total

 

Super senior

 

$

2,936

 

$

3,533

 

$

2,838

 

$

 

$

9,306

 

36.4

%

AAA

 

3,566

 

2,628

 

3,961

 

20

 

10,175

 

39.8

%

AA

 

386

 

531

 

204

 

4

 

1,125

 

4.4

%

A

 

1,162

 

11

 

200

 

 

1,372

 

5.4

%

BBB

 

1,432

 

224

 

102

 

 

1,758

 

6.9

%

Below investment grade

 

1,757

 

83

 

 

 

1,840

 

7.2

%

Total exposures

 

$

11,238

 

$

7,010

 

$

7,305

 

$

24

 

$

25,577

 

100.0

%

 

 

 

Distribution of Residential Mortgage-Backed Securities by Category and by Year Insured as of December 31, 2007

 

 

 

December 31, 2007

 

 

 

US

 

International

 

 

 

 

 

Year insured:

 

Prime

 

Subprime(2)

 

Prime

 

Subprime

 

Total Net Par
Outstanding

 

% of Total

 

2000 and prior

 

$

96

 

$

46

 

$

78

 

$

 

$

220

 

0.9

%

2001

 

5

 

27

 

225

 

 

258

 

1.0

%

2002

 

37

 

18

 

276

 

 

331

 

1.3

%

2003

 

90

 

313

 

113

 

18

 

534

 

2.1

%

2004

 

505

 

205

2

106

 

4

 

821

 

3.2

%

2005

 

1,724

 

107

2

1,288

 

0

 

3,119

 

12.2

%

2006

 

1,287

 

4,630

2

2,543

 

 

8,460

 

33.1

%

2007

 

7,494

 

1,663

2

2,675

 

2

 

11,834

 

46.3

%

 

 

$

11,238

 

$

7,010

 

$

7,305

 

$

24

 

$

25,577

 

100.0

%

 

 

 

Distribution of U.S. Residential Mortgage-Backed Securities by Rating(1) as of December 31, 2007

 

 

Ratings(1)

 

Direct
Net Par
Outstanding

 

%

 

Reinsurance
Net Par
Outstanding

 

%

 

Total
Net Par
Outstanding

 

%

 

Super senior

 

$

6,469

 

38.8

%

$

 

 

$

6,469

 

35.4

%

AAA

 

5,758

 

34.6

%

436

 

27.4

%

6,194

 

33.9

%

AA

 

778

 

4.7

%

139

 

8.7

%

917

 

5.0

%

A

 

1,003

 

6.0

%

169

 

10.6

%

1,172

 

6.4

%

BBB

 

1,123

 

6.7

%

534

 

33.5

%

1,657

 

9.1

%

Below investment grade

 

1,526

 

9.2

%

314

 

19.7

%

1,840

 

10.1

%

 

 

$

16,657

 

100.0

%

$

1,591

 

100.0

%

$

18,248

 

100.0

%

 


(1) Assured’s internal rating. Assured’s scale is comparable to that of the nationally recognized rating agencies. The super senior category, which is not generally used by rating agencies, is used by the Company in instances where Assured’s AAA-rated exposure has additional credit enhancement due to either (1) the existence of another security rated AAA that is subordinated to Assured’s exposure or (2) Assured’s exposure benefits from a different form of credit enhancement that would pay any claims first in the event that any of the exposures incurs a loss, and such credit enhancement, in management’s opinion, causes Assured’s attachment point to be materially above the AAA attachment point.

 

(2) 100% of the $6.4 billion in U.S. subprime RMBS exposure insured by Assured Guaranty Ltd.’s Financial Guaranty Direct segment in 2004, 2005, 2006, and 2007 is rated AAA/Aaa.

 

23



 

Assured Guaranty Ltd.

Financial Guaranty Profile (9 of 13)

(dollars in millions)

 

 

Distribution of Consolidated U.S. Residential Mortgage-Backed Securities by Rating(1) as of December 31, 2007

 

Ratings(1):

 

Prime First
Lien

 

Prime Closed
End Seconds

 

Prime HELOC

 

Alt-A First Lien

 

Subprime First
Lien

 

Total Net Par
Outstanding

 

Super senior

 

$

770

 

$

 

$

 

$

2,166

 

$

3,533

 

$

6,469

 

AAA

 

592

 

74

 

35

 

2,865

 

2,628

 

6,194

 

AA

 

97

 

278

 

10

 

 

531

 

917

 

A

 

642

 

 

17

 

503

 

11

 

1,172

 

BBB

 

790

 

104

 

538

 

 

224

 

1,657

 

Below investment grade

 

0

 

 

1,757

 

 

83

 

1,840

 

Total exposures

 

$

2,891

 

$

456

 

$

2,357

 

$

5,534

 

$

7,010

 

$

18,248

 

 

Distribution of Consolidated U.S. Residential Mortgage-Backed Securities by Year Issued as of December 31, 2007

 

Year issued:

 

Prime First
Lien

 

Prime Closed
End Seconds

 

Prime HELOC

 

Alt-A First Lien

 

Subprime First
Lien

 

Total Net Par
Outstanding

 

2000 and prior

 

$

94

 

$

 

$

2

 

$

 

$

48

 

$

144

 

2001

 

4

 

 

0

 

 

23

 

28

 

2002

 

15

 

 

23

 

 

24

 

62

 

2003

 

92

 

 

27

 

16

 

319

 

454

 

2004

 

125

 

 

234

 

159

 

187

 

705

 

2005

 

764

 

 

941

 

460

 

3,818

 

5,983

 

2006

 

534

 

 

218

 

167

 

1,928

 

2,847

 

2007

 

1,263

 

456

 

912

 

4,731

 

663

 

8,025

 

 

 

$

2,891

 

$

456

 

$

2,357

 

$

5,534

 

$

7,010

 

$

18,248

 

 


(1) Assured’s internal rating.  Assured’s scale is comparable to that of the nationally recognized rating agencies.  The super senior category, which is not generally used by rating agencies, is used by the Company in instances where Assured’s AAA-rated exposure has additional credit enhancement due to either (1) the existence of another security rated AAA that is subordinated to Assured’s exposure or (2) Assured’s exposure benefits from a different form of credit enhancement that would pay any claims first in the event that any of the exposures incurs a loss, and such credit enhancement, in management’s opinion, causes Assured’s attachment point to be materially above the AAA attachment point.

 

24



 

Assured Guaranty Ltd.

Financial Guaranty Profile (10 of 13)

(dollars in millions)

 

 

Financial Guaranty Direct U.S. Residential Mortgage-Backed Securities Net Par Outstanding Underwritten Since January 1, 2004 by Rating(1) and Year of Issue as of December 31, 2007

 

Year
Issued

 

Super
Senior

 

AAA
Rated

 

AA
Rated

 

A
Rated

 

BBB
Rated

 

BIG
Rated

 

Total

 

2003 and prior

 

$

 

$

114

 

$

 

$

 

$

196

 

$

47

 

$

357

 

2004

 

 

311

 

 

 

 

 

311

 

2005

 

2,100

 

2,371

 

 

500

 

107

 

688

 

5,767

 

2006

 

900

 

667

 

500

 

 

396

 

 

2,463

 

2007

 

3,468

 

2,295

 

278

 

503

 

424

 

790

 

7,759

 

 

 

$

6,469

 

$

5,758

 

$

778

 

$

1,003

 

$

1,123

 

$

1,526

 

$

16,657

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

% of total

 

38.8

%

34.6

%

4.7

%

6.0

%

6.7

%

9.2

%

100.0

%

 

Distribution of Financial Guaranty Direct U.S. Residential Mortgage-Backed Securities by Rating(1) as of December 31, 2007

 

Ratings(1):

 

Prime First Lien

 

Prime Closed End Seconds

 

Prime HELOC

 

Alt-A First
Lien

 

Subprime First
Lien

 

Total Net Par Outstanding

 

Super Senior

 

$

780

 

$

 

$

 

$

2,156

 

$

3,533

 

$

6,469

 

AAA

 

371

 

74

 

30

 

2,822

 

2,462

 

5,758

 

AA

 

 

278

 

 

 

500

 

778

 

A

 

500

 

 

 

503

 

 

1,003

 

BBB

 

716

 

104

 

107

 

 

196

 

1,123

 

Below investment grade

 

 

 

1,478

 

 

47

 

1,526

 

Total exposures

 

$

2,366

 

$

456

 

$

1,616

 

$

5,481

 

$

6,738

 

$

16,657

 

 

Distribution of Financial Guaranty Direct U.S. Residential Mortgage-Backed Securities by Rating(1) as of December 31, 2007

 

Ratings(1):

 

Prime First Lien

 

Prime Closed End Seconds

 

Prime HELOC

 

Alt-A First
Lien

 

Subprime First
Lien

 

Super Senior

 

33.0

%

 

 

39.3

%

52.4

%

AAA

 

15.7

%

16.2

%

1.9

%

51.5

%

36.5

%

AA

 

 

61.0

%

 

 

7.4

%

A

 

21.1

%

 

 

9.2

%

 

BBB

 

30.3

%

22.8

%

6.6

%

 

2.9

%

Below investment grade

 

 

 

91.5

%

 

0.7

%

Total exposures

 

100.0

%

100.0

%

100.0

%

100.0

%

100.0

%

 

Distribution of Financial Guaranty Direct U.S. Residential Mortage-Backed Securities by Year Insured as of December 31, 2007

 

Year insured:

 

Prime First Lien

 

Prime Closed End Seconds

 

Prime HELOC

 

Alt-A First
Lien

 

Subprime First
Lien

 

Total Net Par Outstanding

 

2004 and prior

 

$

 

$

 

$

30

 

$

165

 

$

473

 

$

668

 

2005

 

222

 

 

796

 

460

 

88

 

1,567

 

2006

 

896

 

 

 

68

 

4,600

 

5,564

 

2007

 

1,248

 

456

 

790

 

4,787

 

1,577

 

8,858

 

 

 

$

2,366

 

$

456

 

$

1,616

 

$

5,481

 

$

6,738

 

$

16,657

 

 

Distribution of Financial Guaranty Direct U.S. Residential Mortgage-Backed Securities by Year Issued as of December 31, 2007

 

Year insured:

 

Prime First Lien

 

Prime Closed End Seconds

 

Prime HELOC

 

Alt-A First
Lien

 

Subprime First
Lien

 

Total Net Par Outstanding

 

2004 and prior

 

$

 

$

 

$

30

 

$

165

 

$

473

 

$

668

 

2005

 

722

 

 

796

 

460

 

3,788

 

5,767

 

2006

 

396

 

 

 

167

 

1,900

 

2,463

 

2007

 

1,248

 

456

 

790

 

4,688

 

577

 

7,759

 

 

 

$

2,366

 

$

456

 

$

1,616

 

$

5,481

 

$

6,738

 

$

16,657

 

 


(1) Assured's internal rating.  Assured's scale is comparable to that of the nationally recognized rating agencies.  The super senior category, which is not generally used by rating agencies, is used by the Company in instances where Assured's AAA-rated exposure has additional credit enhancement due to either (1) the existence of another security rated AAA that is subordinated to Assured's exposure or (2) Assured's exposure benefits from a different form of credit enhancement that would pay any claims first in the event that any of the exposures incurs a loss, and such credit enhancement, in management's opinion, causes Assured's attachment point to be materially above the AAA attachment point.

 

25



 

Assured Guaranty Ltd.

Financial Guaranty Profile (11 of 13)

(dollars in millions)

 

 

Distribution of Financial Guaranty Direct U.S. Residential Mortgage-Backed Securities Issued January 1, 2005 or Later
by Exposure Type, Average Pool Factor, Subordination, Cumulative Losses and 60+ Day Delinquincies as of December 31, 2007(1)

 

U.S. Prime First Lien

 

Year issued:

 

Net Par
Outstanding

 

Pool Factor(2)

 

Subordination(3)

 

Cumulative
Losses(4)

 

60+ Day
Delinquencies(5)

 

2005

 

$

722

 

81.6

%

3.5

%

0.01

%

1.1

%

2006

 

396

 

77.7

%

3.2

%

0.0

%

0.1

%

2007

 

1,248

 

97.4

%

7.4

%

0.001

%

0.5

%

 

 

$

2,366

 

89.7

%

5.7

%

0.01

%

0.7

%

 

U.S. Prime CES

 

Year issued:

 

Net Par
Outstanding

 

Pool Factor(2)

 

Subordination(3)

 

Cumulative
Losses(4)

 

60+ Day
Delinquencies(5)

 

2005

 

$

 

N/A

 

N/A

 

N/A

 

N/A

 

2006

 

 

N/A

 

N/A

 

N/A

 

N/A

 

2007

 

456

 

96.4

%

37.9

%

1.1

%

7.8

%

 

 

$

456

 

96.4

%

37.9

%

1.1

%

7.8

%

 

U.S. Prime HELOC

 

Year issued:

 

Net Par
Outstanding

 

Pool Factor(2)

 

Subordination(3)

 

Cumulative
Losses(4)

 

60+ Day
Delinquencies(5)

 

2005

 

$

796

 

44.0

%

0.6

%

3.4

%

10.2

%

2006

 

 

N/A

 

N/A

 

N/A

 

N/A

 

2007

 

790

 

87.9

%

0.4

%

1.3

%

4.6

%

 

 

$

1,586

 

53.7

%

0.5

%

2.9

%

8.2

%

 

U.S. Alt-A First Lien

 

Year issued:

 

Net Par
Outstanding

 

Pool Factor(2)

 

Subordination(3)

 

Cumulative
Losses(4)

 

60+ Day
Delinquencies(5)

 

2005

 

$

460

 

68.2

%

8.1

%

0.1

%

3.5

%

2006

 

167

 

66.9

%

15.6

%

0.0

%

8.5

%

2007

 

4,688

 

72.7

%

23.9

%

0.0

%

6.1

%

 

 

$

5,316

 

69.2

%

22.6

%

0.1

%

6.0

%

 

U.S. Subprime First Lien

 

Year issued:

 

Net Par
Outstanding

 

Pool Factor(2)

 

Subordination(3)

 

Cumulative
Losses(4)

 

60+ Day
Delinquencies(5)

 

2005

 

$

3,788

 

44.3

%

52.4

%

1.3

%

29.9

%

2006

 

1,900

 

69.1

%

31.6

%

1.2

%

26.1

%

2007

 

577

 

64.1

%

40.0

%

1.5

%

23.8

%

 

 

$

6,265

 

58.8

%

39.4

%

1.3

%

26.6

%

 


(1)  Subordination, cumulative loss, delinquency, and pool factor data is based on information obtained from Intex and/or provided by the trustee and may be subject to restatement or correction.  The summary data provided here is based on the most recent reports available to Assured.

 

(2) Pool factor is the percentage of net par outstanding at December 31, 2007 divided by the original net par outstanding of the transactions at inception.

 

(3) Represents the sum of subordinate tranches and over-collateralization and does not include any benefit from excess interest collections that may be used to absorb losses. HELOC exposures currently generate excess spread of roughly 250-300 bps per year. The amount of future excess spread generated can fluctuate as a result of interest rate changes and other factors.

 

(4) Cumulative losses are defined as net charge-offs on the underlying loan collateral divided by the original pool balance.

 

(5) 60+ day delinquencies are defined as loans that are greater than 60 days delinquent and also includes all loans that are in foreclosure, bankruptcy or REO divided by net par outstanding.

 

26


 


 

Assured Guaranty Ltd.

Financial Guaranty Profile (12 of 13)

(dollars in millions)

 

 

Financial Guaranty Direct Distribution of Credit Derivative Exposure by Rating

 

 

 

December 31, 2007

 

December 31, 2006

 

Ratings(1):

 

Net Par
Outstanding

 

%

 

Net Par
Outstanding

 

%

 

Super senior

 

$

34,328

 

49.1

%

$

15,046

 

30.9

%

AAA

 

33,318

 

47.6

%

30,855

 

63.4

%

AA

 

1,796

 

2.6

%

1,863

 

3.8

%

A

 

101

 

0.1

%

432

 

0.9

%

BBB

 

368

 

0.5

%

394

 

0.8

%

Below investment grade

 

26

 

 

51

 

0.1

%

Total exposures

 

$

69,936

 

100.0

%

$

48,641

 

100.0

%

 

 

Financial Guaranty Direct Distribution of Credit Derivative Exposure by Sector and Average Rating

 

 

 

December 31, 2007

 

December 31, 2006

 

Sector:

 

Net Par
Outstanding

 

Average
Rating(1)

 

Net Par
Outstanding

 

Average
Rating(1)

 

U.S. public finance

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

General obligation

 

$

431

 

AAA

 

$

454

 

AAA

 

Tax backed

 

70

 

AAA

 

112

 

AAA

 

Investor-owned utilities

 

39

 

AAA

 

39

 

AAA

 

Municipal utilities

 

26

 

AAA

 

26

 

AAA

 

Total U.S. public finance

 

$

565

 

AAA

 

$

630

 

AAA

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

U.S. structured finance

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Pooled corporate obligations

 

$

28,229

 

AAA

 

$

21,399

 

AAA

 

Subprime mortgage-backed and home equity

 

5,843

 

AAA

 

5,023

 

AAA

 

Commercial mortgage-backed securities

 

5,391

 

AAA

 

5,276

 

AAA

 

Prime mortgage-backed and home equity

 

4,901

 

AAA

 

589

 

AAA

 

Commercial receivables

 

1,584

 

AAA

 

423

 

AAA

 

Consumer receivables

 

695

 

AA+

 

310

 

AA

 

Structured credit

 

346

 

AAA

 

1,140

 

AAA

 

Insurance securitizations

 

108

 

AAA

 

100

 

AAA

 

Other structured finance

 

643

 

AAA

 

1,074

 

AAA

 

Total U.S. structured finance

 

$

47,740

 

AAA

 

$

35,335

 

AAA

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

International

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Pooled corporate obligations

 

$

6,984

 

AAA

 

$

2,126

 

AAA

 

Infrastructure and pooled Infrastructure

 

6,404

 

AAA

 

4,927

 

AAA

 

Mortgage-backed and home equity

 

6,032

 

AAA

 

3,351

 

AA+

 

Commercial mortgage-backed securities

 

832

 

AAA

 

1,044

 

AAA

 

Regulated utilities

 

462

 

AAA

 

259

 

AAA

 

Future flow

 

173

 

A+

 

158

 

A-

 

Insurance securitizations

 

41

 

BBB-

 

41

 

A-

 

Public finance

 

9

 

AAA

 

49

 

A

 

Consumer receivables

 

 

 

91

 

BBB

 

Other international structured finance

 

695

 

AAA

 

631

 

AAA

 

Total international

 

$

21,631

 

AAA

 

$

12,676

 

AAA

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Total exposures

 

$

69,936

 

AAA

 

$

48,641

 

AAA

 

 


(1) Assured’s internal rating.  Assured’s scale is comparable to that of the nationally recognized rating agencies.  The super senior category, which is not generally used by rating agencies, is used by the Company in instances where Assured’s AAA-rated exposure has additional credit enhancement due to either (1) the existence of another security rated AAA that is subordinated to Assured’s exposure or (2) Assured’s exposure benefits from a different form of credit enhancement that would pay any claims first in the event that any of the exposures incurs a loss, and such credit enhancement, in management’s opinion, causes Assured’s attachment point to be materially above the AAA attachment point.

 

Please refer to Glossary for description of selected types of U.S. public finance, U.S. structured finance and International obligations that the Company insures and reinsures.

 

 

27


 


 

Assured Guaranty Ltd.

Financial Guaranty Profile (13 of 13)

(dollars in millions)

 

Financial Guaranty Direct Collateralized Debt Obligations of Asset-Backed Securities (CDOs of ABS)(1) Net Par Outstanding by Type of CDO, by Year Insured and by Collateral:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Type of Collateral as a Percent of Total Pool

 

Ratings as of
Dec. 31, 2007

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Year
Insured

 

Legal
Final
Maturity(2)

 

Net Par
Outstanding

 

ABS

 

RMBS
(Includes
Subprime)

 

Comm.
MBS
(CMBS)(3)

 

CDOs of
Investment
Grade
Corporate

 

CDOs of
ABS

 

Total
Collateral
Pool

 

U.S.
Subprime
RMBS

 

S&P

 

Moody’s

 

Original AAA
Sub-
ordination

 

Original Sub-
ordination
Below
Assured

 

Current Sub-
ordination
Below
Assured

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

CDOs of Mezzanine ABS(3):

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2001

 

2017

 

$

116.9

 

0

%

0

%

100

%

0

%

0

%

100

%

0

%

AAA

 

Aaa

 

25.1

%

25.1

%

30.1

%

2001

 

2016

 

60.9

 

0

%

0

%

100

%

0

%

0

%

100

%

0

%

AAA

 

Aaa

 

28.1

%

28.1

%

39.0

%

2002

 

2017

 

137.6

 

0

%

0

%

100

%

0

%

0

%

100

%

0

%

AAA

 

Aaa

 

24.6

%

24.6

%

32.2

%

2002

 

2017

 

121.6

 

0

%

0

%

100

%

0

%

0

%

100

%

0

%

AAA

 

Aaa

 

22.1

%

22.1

%

25.9

%

2002

 

2017

 

90.0

 

0

%

0

%

100

%

0

%

0

%

100

%

0

%

AAA

 

Aaa

 

35.0

%

35.0

%

47.3

%

2002

 

2017

 

76.6

 

0

%

0

%

100

%

0

%

0

%

100

%

0

%

AAA

 

Aaa

 

24.0

%

24.0

%

30.8

%

2003

 

2018

 

131.3

 

0

%

0

%

100

%

0

%

0

%

100

%

0

%

AAA

 

Aaa

 

20.0

%

20.0

%

24.2

%

2003

 

2038

 

84.2

 

0

%

0

%

100

%

0

%

0

%

100

%

0

%

AAA

 

Aaa

 

23.0

%

38.0

%

47.4

%

2003

 

2018

 

51.6

 

0

%

0

%

100

%

0

%

0

%

100

%

0

%

AAA

 

Aaa

 

63.0

%

63.0

%

66.4

%

2004

 

No CDO of ABS business written

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2005

 

No CDO of ABS business written

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2006

 

No CDO of ABS business written

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2007

 

No CDO of ABS business written

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Subtotal:

 

$

870.7

 

0

%

0

%

100

%

0

%

0

%

100

%

0

%

AAA

 

Aaa

 

27.0

%

28.5

%

35.3

%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

CDOs of High Grade ABS(4):

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

No CDO of ABS business written

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

CDOs of Pooled AAA ABS(5):

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2003

 

2010

 

513.1

 

35

%

34

%

26

%

5

%

0

%

100

%

0

%

AAA

 

Aaa

 

0.0

%

12.5

%

12.5

%

2003

 

2008

 

419.0

 

37

%

57

%

6

%

0

%

0

%

100

%

32

%

AAA

 

Aaa

 

0.0

%

10.0

%

10.0

%

2004

 

No CDO of ABS business written

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2005

 

No CDO of ABS business written

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2006

 

No CDO of ABS business written

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2007

 

No CDO of ABS business written

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Subtotal:

 

$

932.1

 

36

%

44

%

17

%

3

%

0

%

100

%

14

%

AAA

 

Aaa

 

0.0

%

11.4

%

11.4

%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Total:

 

$

1,802.9

 

19

%

23

%

57

%

1

%

0

%

100

%

7

%

AAA

 

Aaa

 

13.0

%

19.6

%

22.9

%

 


(1) A “CDO of ABS” is a collateralized debt obligation (CDO) transaction whose collateral pool consists primarily of asset-backed securities (ABS), including mortgage-backed securities (MBS).  ABS transactions securities generally represent an ownership interest in a trust that contains collateral supporting the notes.  Those interests are divided into several tranches that can have varying levels of subordination, credit protection triggers and credit ratings. 

 

(2) “Legal Final Maturity” represents the final date for payment specified in the transaction documents and does not take into account prepayments that shorten the expected maturity and weighted average life.

 

(3) ”CDOs of Mezzanine ABS” is a market term that refers to transactions where the underlying collateral at issuance is comprised primarily of mezzanine tranches rated BBB or lower.  The collateral underlying Assured’s exposure to CDOs of Mezzanine ABS is comprised of mezzanine tranches of CMBS transactions and senior unsecured debt issued by commercial property REITs.  The transactions to which Assured has exposure are static pools rather than actively managed transactions, and the collateral in these static pools was originated primarily in the period from 1997-2003. The collateral underlying Assured’s exposure to CDOs of Mezzanine ABS had weighted average ratings, based on rating information as of December 31, 2007, as follows: 18% AAA, 7% AA, 11% A, 46% BBB and 18% below investment grade (BIG).

 

(4) “CDOs of High Grade ABS” is a market term that refers to transactions where the underlying collateral at issuance is comprised of mezzanine tranches rated single-A or higher.

 

(5) “CDOs of Pooled AAA ABS” is a market term that refers to transactions where the underlying collateral at issuance is comprised of the senior-most AAA rated securities.  Assured’s exposure to CDOs of Pooled AAA ABS was rated, based on rating information as of December 31, 2007: 100% AAA/Aaa.

 

 

28



 

Assured Guaranty Ltd.

Non-Investment Grade Exposures

as of December 31, 2007

(dollars in millions)

 

 

 

Weighted Average

 

Net Par

 

Average

 

Non-Investment Grade Exposures by Asset Type:

 

Remaining Life

 

Outstanding

 

Rating(1)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

U.S. public finance

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Healthcare

 

11.0

 

$

53

 

B+

 

Tax backed

 

15.8

 

44

 

BB

 

General obligation

 

8.2

 

36

 

BB+

 

Transportation

 

15.3

 

24

 

C

 

Municipal utility

 

9.5

 

12

 

C

 

Housing

 

13.7

 

4

 

B

 

Higher education

 

12.4

 

1

 

BB+

 

Investor-owned utilities

 

9.0

 

 

BB

 

Total U.S. public finance

 

12.2

 

$

174

 

B+

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

U.S. structured finance

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Prime mortgage-backed and home equity

 

4.4

 

$

1,757

 

BB-

 

Subprime mortgage-backed and home equity

 

6.4

 

83

 

CCC+

 

Commercial receivables

 

12.4

 

23

 

B

 

Pooled corporate obligations

 

3.1

 

20

 

B-

 

Other structured finance

 

23.6

 

12

 

B

 

Total U.S. structured finance

 

4.7

 

$

1,894

 

BB-

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

International

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Infrastructure

 

10.5

 

$

45

 

BB-

 

Total international

 

10.5

 

$

45

 

BB-

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Total non-investment grade exposures

 

5.4

 

$

2,114

 

BB-

 

 

Top Ten Non-Investment Grade Exposures as of December 31, 2007

 

Name or Description

 

Segment

 

Weighted Average
Remaining Life

 

Net Par Outstanding

 

Average
Rating(1)

 

CWHEQ Revolving Home Equity Loan Trust, 2007-D

 

Direct

 

3.2

 

$

757

 

BB

 

Countrywide Home Equity Loan Trust 2005-J Class 1 & 2

 

Direct

 

2.5

 

688

 

BB-

 

Domestic Residential Mortgage-backed HELOC Transaction

 

Reinsurance

 

2.5

 

75

 

BB

 

Domestic Residential Mortgage-backed HELOC Transaction

 

Reinsurance

 

8.0

 

52

 

BB+

 

Domestic Residential Mortgage-backed HELOC Transaction

 

Reinsurance

 

2.5

 

42

 

BB

 

Domestic Residential Mortgage-backed HELOC Transaction

 

Reinsurance

 

9.0

 

40

 

BB+

 

Domestic Residential Mortgage-backed HELOC Transaction

 

Reinsurance

 

2.5

 

36

 

BB+

 

American Home Mortgage Investor Trust 2007-A

 

Direct

 

3.0

 

33

 

BB

 

International Airport Facility

 

Reinsurance

 

6.0

 

29

 

BB

 

Louisiana State Stadium & Exposition District

 

Reinsurance

 

19.4

 

29

 

BB

 

Total

 

 

 

3.5

 

$

1,781

 

BB

 


(1) Assured’s internal rating.  Assured’s scale is comparable to that of the nationally recognized rating agencies.  The super senior category, which is not generally used by rating agencies, is used by the Company in instances where Assured’s AAA-rated exposure has additional credit enhancement due to either (1) the existence of another security rated AAA that is subordinated to Assured’s exposure or (2) Assured’s exposure benefits from a different form of credit enhancement that would pay any claims first in the event that any of the exposures incurs a loss, and such credit enhancement, in management’s opinion, causes Assured’s attachment point to be materially above the AAA attachment point.

 

Please refer to Glossary for description of selected types of U.S. public finance, U.S. structured finance and International obligations that the Company insures and reinsures.

 

29



 

Assured Guaranty Ltd.

Closely Monitored Credits (“CMC”)

(dollars in millions)

 

Net Par Outstanding by Credit Monitoring Category(1)

 

 

 

December 31, 2007

 

Description:

 

Net Par
Outstanding

 

%

 

Number of Credits
in Category

 

Fundamentally sound risk

 

$

198,133

 

98.9

%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Closely monitored credits:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Category 1

 

1,288

 

0.6

%

36

 

Category 2

 

743

 

0.4

%

12

 

Category 3

 

71

 

 

16

 

Category 4

 

24

 

 

16

 

CMC Total

 

2,126

 

1.1

%

80

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Other below investment grade risk

 

20

 

 

46

 

Total

 

$

200,279

 

100.0

%

 

 

 

 

 

December 31, 2006

 

Description:

 

Net Par
Outstanding

 

%

 

Number of Credits
in Category

 

Fundamentally sound risk

 

$

130,944

 

99.0

%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Closely monitored credits:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Category 1

 

855

 

0.6

%

43

 

Category 2

 

318

 

0.2

%

13

 

Category 3

 

123

 

0.1

%

18

 

Category 4

 

22

 

 

13

 

CMC Total

 

1,318

 

1.0

%

87

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Other below investment grade risk

 

34

 

 

68

 

Total

 

$

132,296

 

100.0

%

 

 

 


(1) Assured’s surveillance department is responsible for monitoring the Company’s portfolio of credits and maintains a list of closely monitored credits. The closely monitored credits are divided into four categories: Category 1 (low priority; fundamentally sound, greater than normal risk); Category 2 (medium priority; weakening credit profile, may result in loss); Category 3 (high priority; claim/default probable, case reserve established); Category 4 (claim paid, case reserve established for future payments). The closely monitored credits include all below investment grade (BIG) exposures where there is a material amount of exposure (generally greater than $10.0 million) or a material risk of the Company incurring a loss greater than $0.5 million. The closely monitored credits also include investment grade (IG) risks where credit quality is deteriorating and where, in the view of the Company, there is significant potential that the risk quality will fall below investment grade.

 

30



 

Assured Guaranty Ltd.

Largest Exposures by Sector (Part 1 of 4)

as of December 31, 2007

(dollars in millions)

 

25 Largest U.S. Public Finance Exposures

 

 

 

Net Par

 

 

 

Credit Name:

 

Outstanding

 

Rating(1)

 

State of California General Obligation & Leases

 

$

1,311

 

A+

 

City of Chicago General Obligation & Leases

 

913

 

AA-

 

New York City General Obligation & Leases

 

894

 

A+

 

Commonwealth of Puerto Rico General Obligation & Leases

 

822

 

BBB-

 

State of Washington General Obligation

 

803

 

AA

 

Denver International Airport System

 

765

 

A+

 

Los Angeles Unified School District

 

749

 

AA

 

State of New Jersey General Obligation & Leases

 

687

 

AA-

 

Commonwealth of Massachusetts General Obligation & Bay Transportation

 

685

 

AA-

 

State of New York General Obligation & Leases

 

676

 

AA

 

Hawaii State General Obligation

 

627

 

AA-

 

Florida State General Obligation

 

626

 

AA

 

Puerto Rico Highway & Transportation Authority

 

598

 

BBB

 

New York City Municipal Water Finance Authority

 

594

 

AA

 

Jefferson County, Alabama Sewer Enterprise

 

578

 

A

 

Metropolitan Transportation Authority (New York) - Transportation Revenue

 

540

 

A

 

District of Columbia General Obligation

 

540

 

A

 

Port Authority of New York & New Jersey

 

491

 

AA-

 

Clark County Nevada School District

 

443

 

AA-

 

Louisiana Citizens Property Insurance Corporation

 

427

 

A-

 

Massachusetts School Building Authority

 

427

 

AA

 

Long Island Power Authority

 

425

 

A-

 

University of California Board of Regents

 

421

 

AA-

 

Los Angeles California Department of Water & Power

 

419

 

AA-

 

Chicago Public Building Commission - Chicago Board of Education

 

419

 

A

 

Total top 25 U.S. public finance exposures

 

$

15,879

 

 

 

 

10 Largest Healthcare Exposures

 

 

 

Net Par

 

 

 

 

 

Credit Name:

 

Outstanding

 

Rating(1)

 

State

 

Catholic Healthcare West

 

$

233

 

A

 

CA

 

Meridian Health System Obligated Group

 

213

 

A-

 

NJ

 

Christus Health System

 

210

 

A+

 

TX

 

Adventist Health Systems / Sunbelt

 

179

 

A+

 

FL

 

Covenant Health

 

177

 

A-

 

TN

 

Methodist Hospitals of Dallas

 

165

 

A+

 

TX

 

Integris Health, Inc. - Oklahoma

 

160

 

AA

 

OK

 

Advocate Health Care Network

 

156

 

AA

 

IL

 

Hoag Memorial Hospital Presbyterian

 

146

 

AA-

 

CA

 

University Health Systems of Eastern Carolina

 

143

 

A+

 

NC

 

Total top 10 healthcare exposures

 

$

1,783

 

 

 

 

 


(1) Assured’s internal rating.  Assured’s scale is comparable to that of the nationally recognized rating agencies.  The super senior category, which is not generally used by rating agencies, is used by the Company in instances where Assured’s AAA-rated exposure has additional credit enhancement due to either (1) the existence of another security rated AAA that is subordinated to Assured’s exposure or (2) Assured’s exposure benefits from a different form of credit enhancement that would pay any claims first in the event that any of the exposures incurs a loss, and such credit enhancement, in management’s opinion, causes Assured’s attachment point to be materially above the AAA attachment point.

 

 

31



 

Assured Guaranty Ltd.

Largest Exposures by Sector (Part 2 of 4)

as of December 31, 2007

(dollars in millions)

 

25 Largest U.S. Structured Finance Exposures

 

 

 

Net Par

 

 

 

Credit Name:

 

Outstanding

 

Rating (1)

 

Discover Card Master Trust I Series A

 

$

1,200

 

AAA

 

Deutsche Alt-A Securities Mortgage Loan 2007-2

 

1,130

 

AAA

 

Field Point III & IV, Limited

 

912

 

AA-

 

Field Point I & II, Limited

 

805

 

AA-

 

Countrywide Home Equity Loan Trust 2007-D

 

757

 

BB

 

Private - CDO

 

747

 

AAA

 

MortgageIt Securities Corp. Mortgage Loan 2007-2

 

728

 

AAA / Super senior

 

Private - CDO

 

713

 

AAA

 

Ares Enhanced Credit Opportunities Fund

 

664

 

AAA

 

Private - CDO

 

660

 

AAA

 

Applebee’s Franchising LLC

 

655

 

BBB-

 

Private RMBS Re-Remic

 

634

 

AAA / Super senior

 

Sandelman Finance 2006-1 Limited

 

623

 

AA

 

Chrysler Retail Auto Loan Receivables Class-A

 

618

 

A

 

Synthetic CDO - IG ABS

 

594

 

AAA / Super senior

 

Deutsche Alt-A Securities Mortgage Loan 2007-3

 

593

 

AAA / Super senior

 

Private - CDO

 

576

 

AAA

 

Citibank Omni Master Trust

 

568

 

AAA

 

Chrysler Retail Auto Loan Receivables Class A

 

550

 

AAA

 

McDonnell Loan Opportunity Fund

 

538

 

AAA

 

AAA Trust 2007-2

 

533

 

AAA / Super senior

 

Private - CDO

 

533

 

AAA / Super senior

 

Private - CDO

 

512

 

AAA

 

Impac CMB Trust Series 2007-A

 

503

 

A+

 

Private - Mortgage Backed Securities

 

500

 

A

 

Total top 25 U.S. structured finance exposures

 

$

16,846

 

 

 

 


(1) Assured’s internal rating.  Assured’s scale is comparable to that of the nationally recognized rating agencies.  The super senior category, which is not generally used by rating agencies, is used by the Company in instances where Assured’s AAA-rated exposure has additional credit enhancement due to either (1) the existence of another security rated AAA that is subordinated to Assured’s exposure or (2) Assured’s exposure benefits from a different form of credit enhancement that would pay any claims first in the event that any of the exposures incurs a loss, and such credit enhancement, in management’s opinion, causes Assured’s attachment point to be materially above the AAA attachment point.

 

 

32



 

Assured Guaranty Ltd.

Largest Exposures by Sector (Part 3 of 4)

as of December 31, 2007

(dollars in millions)

 

25 Largest International Exposures

 

 

 

Net Par

 

 

 

Credit Name:

 

Outstanding

 

Rating (1)

 

Private - Prime European RMBS

 

$

1,561

 

AAA / Super senior

 

Graphite Mortgages Plc Provide Graphite 2005-2

 

1,277

 

AAA / Super senior

 

Permanent Master Issuer PLC

 

1,157

 

AAA

 

Essential Public Infrastructure Capital III

 

1,153

 

AAA / Super senior

 

Essential Public Infrastructure Capital II

 

1,122

 

AAA / Super senior

 

Paragon Mortgages (No.13) PLC

 

960

 

AAA

 

Granite Master Issuer PLC

 

910

 

AAA

 

International Infrastructure Pool

 

873

 

AAA / Super senior

 

International Infrastructure Pool

 

873

 

AAA / Super senior

 

International Infrastructure Pool

 

813

 

AAA / Super senior

 

Taberna Europe CDO II PLC

 

753

 

AAA / Super senior

 

Stichting Profile Securitisation I

 

698

 

AAA / Super senior

 

Synthetic CDO - IG ABS

 

695

 

AAA / Super senior

 

Nemus Funding No.1 PLC

 

677

 

AAA / Super senior

 

National Grid Gas PLC

 

616

 

A

 

United Utilities Water PLC

 

588

 

A

 

Global Senior Loan Index Fund 1 B.V.

 

567

 

AAA / Super senior

 

Northumbrian Water PLC

 

558

 

BBB+

 

National Grid Electricity Transmission PLC

 

554

 

A

 

Harvest CLO III

 

510

 

AAA

 

Wessex Water PLC

 

481

 

BBB+

 

Taberna Europe CDO I PLC

 

474

 

AAA / Super senior

 

RMF Euro CDO V PLC

 

443

 

AAA

 

Yorkshire Water Services Finance PLC

 

441

 

A-

 

Ballantyne Re PLC Class A-2 Floating Rate Notes

 

425

 

BBB-

 

Total top 25 international exposures

 

$

19,179

 

 

 


(1) Assured’s internal rating.  Assured’s scale is comparable to that of the nationally recognized rating agencies.  The super senior category, which is not generally used by rating agencies, is used by the Company in instances where Assured’s AAA-rated exposure has additional credit enhancement due to either (1) the existence of another security rated AAA that is subordinated to Assured’s exposure or (2) Assured’s exposure benefits from a different form of credit enhancement that would pay any claims first in the event that any of the exposures incurs a loss, and such credit enhancement, in management’s opinion, causes Assured’s attachment point to be materially above the AAA attachment point.

 

33



 

Assured Guaranty Ltd.

Largest Exposures by Sector (Part 4 of 4)

as of December 31, 2007

(dollars in millions)

 

10 Largest U.S. Residential Mortgage Servicers Exposures

 

 

 

Net Par

 

Servicer:

 

Outstanding

 

Countrywide Home Loans, Inc.

 

$

3,967

 

Wells Fargo Home Mortgage, Inc.

 

2,346

 

Northern Rock PLC

 

2,186

 

Residential Funding Corporation

 

2,044

 

European Mortgage Servicer (Private Transaction)

 

1,561

 

Halifax PLC

 

1,163

 

Paragon Finance PLC

 

960

 

AMC Mortgage Services

 

739

 

East West Bancorp, Inc.

 

716

 

Impac Funding Corporation

 

554

 

Total top 10 U.S. residential mortgage servicers exposures

 

$

16,236

 

 

34



 

Assured Guaranty Ltd.

Consolidated Capital and Claims Paying Resources

(dollars in millions)

 

 

 

 

As of December 31, 2007

 

As of December 31, 2006

 

 

 

Assured
Guaranty
Corp.

 

Assured
Guaranty Re
Ltd.(
1)

 

Consolidated

 

Assured
Guaranty
Corp.

 

Assured
Guaranty Re
Ltd.(
1)

 

Consolidated

 

Statutory surplus and reserves

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Unearned premium reserve(2)

 

$

302

 

$

629

 

$

931

 

$

239

 

$

444

 

$

683

 

Contingency reserve

 

582

 

 

582

 

631

 

 

631

 

Policyholders’ surplus

 

400

 

1,097

 

1,497

 

286

 

741

 

1,027

 

Loss & loss adjustment expense reserves(3)

 

12

 

18

 

30

 

15

 

18

 

33

 

Total policyholders’ surplus and reserves

 

$

1,296

 

$

1,744

 

$

3,040

 

$

1,171

 

$

1,203

 

$

2,374

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Claims paying resources

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Policyholders’ surplus

 

$

400

 

$

1,097

 

$

1,497

 

$

286

 

$

741

 

$

1,027

 

Contingency reserve

 

582

 

 

582

 

631

 

 

631

 

Qualified statutory capital

 

982

 

1,097

 

2,079

 

917

 

741

 

1,658

 

Unearned premium reserve(2)

 

302

 

629

 

931

 

239

 

444

 

683

 

Loss & loss adjustment expense reserves(3)

 

12

 

18

 

30

 

15

 

18

 

33

 

Total policyholders’ surplus and reserves

 

1,296

 

1,744

 

3,040

 

1,171

 

1,203

 

2,374

 

Present value of installment premium(d)

 

554

 

366

 

920

 

356

 

230

 

586

 

Standby line of credit/stop loss

 

280

 

200

 

480

 

455

 

 

455

 

Total claims paying resources

 

$

2,130

 

$

2,310

 

$

4,440

 

$

1,982

 

$

1,433

 

$

3,415

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Net par insured outstanding

 

$

94,127

 

$

106,253

 

$

200,279

 

$

68,370

 

$

63,927

 

$

132,296

 

Net debt service outstanding

 

$

128,351

 

$

174,173

 

$

302,413

 

$

85,522

 

$

94,652

 

$

180,174

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Ratios:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Net par insured to statutory capital

 

96:1

 

97:1

 

96:1

 

75:1

 

86:1

 

80:1

 

Capital ratio(4)

 

131:1

 

159:1

 

145:1

 

93:1

 

128:1

 

109:1

 

Financial resources ratio(5)

 

60:1

 

75:1

 

68:1

 

43:1

 

66:1

 

53:1

 


(1)

Assured Guaranty Re Ltd. (AG Re) numbers are the Company’s estimate of U.S. statutory as the company files Bermuda statutory financial statements.

(2)

Unearned premium reserve for AG Re is U.S. GAAP based and net of prepaid reinsurance premiums.

(3)

Loss and loss adjustment reserves for AG Re are U.S. GAAP based and net of reinsurance recoverable and portfolio reserves.

(4)

The capital ratio is calculated by dividing net par and interest insured by qualified statutory capital.

(5)

The financial resources ratio is calculated by dividing net par and interest insured by total claims paying resources.

 

 

Note: Please refer to endnotes for explanation of non-GAAP financial measures [net present value of estimated future installment premiums in force (d)].

 

35



 

Assured Guaranty Ltd.

Summary Financial and Statistical Data

(dollars in millions, except per share amounts)

 

 

 

Year Ended December 31,

 

 

 

2007

 

2006

 

2005

 

2004

 

GAAP Summary Income Statement Data

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Gross premiums written

 

$

505.9

 

$

325.7

 

$

252.1

 

$

190.9

 

Net earned premiums

 

232.0

 

206.7

 

198.7

 

187.9

 

Net investment income

 

128.1

 

111.5

 

96.8

 

94.8

 

Total expenses

 

163.7

 

132.1

 

64.9

 

114.6

 

(Loss) income before provision for income taxes

 

(463.0

)

190.0

 

229.6

 

233.3

 

Net (loss) income

 

(303.3

)

159.7

 

188.4

 

182.8

 

Operating income

 

178.0

 

157.2

 

190.0

 

141.1

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Net (loss) income per diluted share

 

$

(4.46

)

$

2.15

 

$

2.53

 

$

2.44

 

Operating income per diluted share

 

$

2.57

 

$

2.12

 

$

2.55

 

$

1.88

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Financial Ratios:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Loss and LAE ratio

 

3.4

%

(3.3

)%

(35.0

)%

(17.0

)%

Expense ratio

 

55.8

%

59.2

%

58.9

%

65.4

%

Combined ratio

 

59.2

%

55.9

%

23.9

%

48.4

%

GAAP Summary Balance Sheet Data (End of Period)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Total investments and cash

 

$

3,147.9

 

$

2,469.9

 

$

2,256.0

 

$

2,157.9

 

Total assets

 

3,800.4

 

2,935.3

 

2,696.3

 

2,703.7

 

Unearned premium reserves

 

908.3

 

644.5

 

537.1

 

521.3

 

Loss and LAE reserves

 

133.8

 

120.6

 

128.4

 

236.2

 

Senior notes

 

197.4

 

197.4

 

197.3

 

197.4

 

Series A Enhanced Junior Subordinated Debentures

 

149.7

 

149.7

 

 

 

Shareholders’ equity

 

1,666.6

 

1,650.8

 

1,661.5

 

1,527.6

 

Book value per share

 

$

20.85

 

$

24.44

 

$

22.22

 

$

20.19

 

Other Financial Information:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Net debt service outstanding (end of period)

 

$

302,413

 

$

180,174

 

$

145,694

 

$

136,120

 

Gross debt service outstanding (end of period)

 

307,657

 

181,503

 

148,836

 

139,129

 

Net par outstanding (end of period)

 

200,279

 

132,296

 

102,465

 

95,592

 

Gross par outstanding (end of period)

 

204,809

 

133,303

 

105,258

 

98,221

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Consolidated qualified statutory capital

 

2,079

 

1,658

 

1,545

 

1,351

 

Consolidated policyholders’ surplus and reserves

 

3,040

 

2,374

 

2,182

 

1,990

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Ratios:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Par insured to statutory capital

 

96:1

 

80:1

 

66:1

 

71:1

 

Capital ratio(1)

 

145:1

 

109:1

 

94:1

 

101:1

 

Financial resources ratio(2)

 

68:1

 

53:1

 

48:1

 

51:1

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Gross debt service written:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

U.S. public finance

 

$

66,190

 

$

13,261

 

$

13,335

 

$

11,943

 

U.S. structured finance

 

42,414

 

28,902

 

16,724

 

15,131

 

International

 

24,971

 

17,979

 

5,729

 

3,897

 

Total gross debt service written

 

$

133,575

 

$

60,142

 

$

35,788

 

$

30,970

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Net debt service written

 

129,872

 

59,775

 

35,440

 

30,680

 

Net par written

 

84,686

 

50,541

 

26,020

 

23,125

 

Gross par written

 

88,117

 

50,892

 

26,320

 

23,375

 


1.  The capital ratio is calculated by dividing net par and interest insured by qualified statutory capital.

2.  The financial resources ratio is calculated by dividing net par and interest insured by total claims paying resources.

 

 

36



 

Glossary

 

Below are the brief descriptions of selected types of U.S. public finance, U.S. structured finance and International obligations that the Company insures and reinsures. For a more complete description, please refer to Assured Guaranty Ltd.’s 10-K report.

 

Other public finance: primarily includes government insured student loans, government-sponsored project finance and structured municipal which includes excess of loss reinsurance on portfolios of municipal credits.

 

Pooled corporate obligations are structured financings backed by a pool of debt obligations. These financings are typically structured in multiple tranches (layers) from equity (first loss) through super senior (high excess). Losses on defaulted pool assets are allocated successively first to the equity tranche then to higher rated tranches.

 

Mortgage-backed and home equity: includes individual and repackaged securities backed by either prime, Alt-A, or subprime first and second lien mortgages.

 

Consumer receivables: principally includes auto loan receivables and credit card receivables.

 

Commercial mortgage-backed securities: includes individual and repackaged securities backed by commercial mortgage-backed securities.

 

Commercial receivables: includes equipment loans or leases, fleet auto financings and franchise loans.

 

Structured credit: includes whole business securitizations and intellectual property securitizations. Whole business securitizations are obligations backed by revenue-producing assets sold to a limited-purpose company by an operating company, including franchise agreements, lease agreements, intellectual property and real property.

 

Other structured finance: includes, manufactured housing, collateralized debt obligations of asset-backed securities and other securitizations not included in other asset classes.

 



 

Endnotes related to non-GAAP financial measures discussed in the financial supplement:

 

(a) Present value of gross written premiums or PVP, which is a non-GAAP financial measure, is defined as gross upfront and installment premiums received and the present value of gross estimated future installment premiums, on contracts written in the current period, discounted at 6% per year.   Management believes that  PVP is a useful measure for management, equity analysts and investors because it permits the evaluation of the value of new business production for Assured by taking into account the value of estimated future installment premiums on new contracts underwritten in a reporting period, which GAAP gross premiums written does not adequately measure.  Actual future net earned or written premiums may differ from PVP due to factors such as prepayments, amortizations, refundings, contract terminations or defaults that may or may not be influenced by market interest rates, refinancing or refunding activity, prepayment speeds, policy changes or terminations, credit defaults, or other factors that management cannot control or predict. This measure should not be viewed as a substitute for gross written premiums determined in accordance with GAAP.

 

(b) Operating income, which is a non-GAAP financial measure, is defined as net income (loss) excluding after-tax realized gains (losses) on investments and after-tax unrealized gains (losses) on derivative financial instruments.  Operating return on equity (ROE) represents operating income as a percentage of average shareholders’ equity, excluding accumulated other comprehensive income and after-tax unrealized gains (losses) on derivative financial instruments. Management believes that operating income and operating ROE are useful measures for management, equity analysts and investors because the presentation of operating income and operating ROE enhance the understanding of Assured’s results of operations by highlighting the underlying profitability of Assured’s insurance business.  Net realized gains (losses) on investments and net unrealized gains (losses) on derivative financial instruments are excluded because the amount of these gains (losses) is heavily influenced by, and fluctuates in part according to, market interest rates, credit spreads, and other factors that management cannot control or predict.  These measures should not be viewed as substitutes for net income (loss) or ROE determined in accordance with GAAP.

 

(c) Adjusted book value, which is a non-GAAP financial measure, is defined as shareholders’ equity (book value) plus the after-tax value of the unearned premium reserve net of prepaid reinsurance premiums, plus the net present value of estimated future installment premiums in force, less future ceding commissions, after tax discounted at 6%, less deferred acquisition costs, after tax.  Management believes that adjusted book value is a useful measure for management, equity analysts and investors because the calculation of adjusted book value permits an evaluation of the net present value of the Company’s in-force premiums and capital base. The premiums described above will be earned in future periods, but may differ materially from the estimated amounts used in determining current adjusted book value due to changes in market interest rates, refinancing or refunding activity, prepayment speeds, policy changes or terminations, credit defaults, and other factors that management cannot control or predict.  This measure should not be viewed as a substitute for book value determined in accordance with GAAP.

 

(d) Net present value of estimated future installment premiums in force, which is a non-GAAP financial measure, is defined as the present value of estimated future installment premiums from our in-force book of business, net of reinsurance and discounted at 6%.  Management believes that net present value of estimated future installment premiums in force is a useful measure for management, equity analysts and investors because it permits an evaluation of the value of future estimated installment premiums. Estimated future premiums may change from period to period due to changes in par outstanding, maturity, or other factors that management cannot control or predict that result from market interest rates, refinancing or refunding activity, prepayment speeds, policy changes or terminations, credit defaults, or other factors.  There is no comparable GAAP financial measure.

 

For adjusted book value, net present value of estimated future installment premiums in force, and PVP, Assured uses 6% as the present value discount rate because it is the approximate taxable equivalent yield on Assured’s investment portfolio for the periods presented.

 



 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Contacts:

 

 

 

 

 

Equity Investors and Media

 

 

Sabra Purtill

 

 

Managing Director, Investor Relations

 

 

and Strategic Planning

 

 

(212) 408-6044

 

 

spurtill@assuredguaranty.com

 

 

 

 

 

Chris McNamee

 

 

Vice President, Investor Relations

 

 

(212) 261-5509

 

 

cmcnamee@assuredguaranty.com

 

 

 

Assured Guaranty Ltd.

 

Fixed Income Investors

30 Woodbourne Avenue

 

Michael Walker

Hamilton HM 08

 

Director, Fixed Income Investor Relations

Bermuda

 

(212) 261-5575

www.assuredguaranty.com

 

mwalker@assuredguaranty.com