EX-99.2 3 a06-22849_1ex99d2.htm EX-99

 

Exhibit 99.2

Assured Guaranty Ltd.
Financial Supplement
Third Quarter 2006
September 30, 2006

Table of Contents

 

Page

 

Assured Guaranty Ltd.

 

 

 

Selected Financial Highlights

 

1

 

Consolidated GAAP Income Statements

 

2

 

Consolidated GAAP Balance Sheets

 

3

 

Segment Consolidation

 

4-5

 

Financial Guaranty Direct Segment

 

6-7

 

Financial Guaranty Reinsurance Segment

 

8-9

 

Mortgage Guaranty Segment

 

10

 

Other Segment

 

11

 

Loss and LAE Reserves

 

12

 

Investment Portfolio

 

13

 

Financial Guaranty Profile

 

14-16

 

Non-Investment Grade Exposures

 

17

 

Closely Monitored Credits

 

18

 

Largest Exposures by Sector

 

19-20

 

Consolidated Capital and Claims Paying Resources

 

21

 

Summary Financial and Statistical Data

 

22

 

 

This supplement should be read in conjunction with documents filed by Assured Guaranty Ltd. (the “Company”) with the Securities and Exchange Commission, including our 10-Q’s dated March 31, 2005, June 30, 2005, September 30, 2005, March 31, 2006 and June 30, 2006 and our 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2005.

Cautionary Statement Regarding Forward-Looking Statements:

Any forward-looking statements made in this supplement reflect the Company’s current views with respect to future events and financial performance and are made pursuant to the safe harbor provisions of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Such statements involve risks and uncertainties that may cause actual results to differ materially from those set forth in these statements. For example, the Company’s forward looking statements, including its calculations of adjusted book value, PVP and net present value of estimated future installment premiums in force, and statements regarding ratings improvement and the growth of the direct business could be affected by many events. These events include a significant reduction in the amount of reinsurance ceded by one or more of our principal ceding companies, rating agency action such as a ratings downgrade, difficulties with the execution of the Company’s business strategy, contract cancellations, developments in the world’s financial and capital markets, more severe or frequent losses associated with products affecting the adequacy of the Company’s loss reserve, changes in regulation or tax laws, governmental actions, natural catastrophes, the Company’s dependence on customers, decreased demand or increased competition, loss of key personnel, technological developments, the effects of mergers, acquisitions and divestitures, changes in accounting policies or practices, changes in general economic conditions, other risks and uncertainties that have not been identified at this time, management’s response to these factors, and other risk factors identified in the Company’s filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Readers are cautioned not to place undue reliance on these forward looking statements, which speak only as of the dates on which they are made. The Company undertakes no obligation to publicly update or revise any forward looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise.




 

Assured Guaranty Ltd.
Selected Financial Highlights
(dollars and shares in millions except per share amounts)

 

 

Quarter Ended

 

% Change

 

Nine Months Ended

 

% Change

 

 

 

September 30,

 

versus

 

September 30,

 

versus

 

 

 

2006

 

2005

 

3Q-05

 

2006

 

2005

 

9M 2005

 

Gross written premiums (GWP) analysis:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Present value of financial guaranty & mortgage guaranty GWP (PVP) (a)

 

$

127.4

 

$

61.9

 

106

%

$

337.6

 

$

202.4

 

67

%

Less: Installment premium PVP

 

86.1

 

40.3

 

114

%

201.1

 

126.4

 

59

%

Upfront financial guaranty & mortgage guaranty GWP

 

41.3

 

21.6

 

91

%

136.5

 

76.0

 

80

%

Less: Upfront premium due to novations

 

 

 

 

 

18.4

 

NMF

 

Plus: Installment GWP

 

32.2

 

32.3

 

(0.3

)%

100.0

 

104.5

 

(4

)%

Financial guaranty & mortgage guaranty GWP

 

73.5

 

53.9

 

36

%

236.5

 

162.1

 

46

%

Plus: Other segment GWP

 

0.1

 

21.6

 

NMF

 

4.0

 

32.0

 

(88

)%

Total GWP

 

$

73.6

 

$

75.6

 

(3

)%

$

240.5

 

$

194.1

 

24

%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Net income

 

$

37.9

 

$

39.2

 

(3

)%

$

117.3

 

$

150.3

 

(22

)%

Less: After-tax realized gains (losses) on investments

 

 

0.1

 

NMF

 

(1.4

)

2.8

 

NMF

 

Less: After-tax unrealized (losses) gains on derivatives

 

(1.1

)

0.2

 

NMF

 

3.0

 

(7.9

)

NMF

 

Operating income (b)

 

$

39.0

 

$

38.9

 

0.3

%

$

115.7

 

$

155.4

 

(26

)%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Book value

 

$

1,756.9

 

$

1,633.6

 

8

%

 

 

 

 

 

 

Plus: Net unearned premium reserve less DAC, after-tax(1)

 

345.0

 

279.1

 

24

%

 

 

 

 

 

 

Plus: Net present value of estimated future installment premiums in-force, after-tax (d)

 

416.6

 

306.3

 

36

%

 

 

 

 

 

 

Adjusted book value (c)

 

$

2,518.4

 

$

2,219.0

 

13

%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

ROE, excluding AOCI

 

8.9

%

10.0

%

 

 

9.4

%

13.2

%

 

 

Less: After-tax realized (losses) gains on investments

 

 

 

 

 

(0.1

)%

0.2

%

 

 

Less: After-tax unrealized (losses) gains on derivatives

 

(0.3

)%

 

 

 

0.2

%

(0.7

)%

 

 

Operating ROE, excluding AOCI (b)

 

9.2

%

10.0

%

 

 

9.3

%

13.7

%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Per diluted share:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Net income

 

$

0.51

 

$

0.53

 

(4

)%

$

1.57

 

$

2.02

 

(22

)%

Less: After-tax realized (losses) gains on investments

 

 

 

 

(0.02

)

0.04

 

NMF

 

Less: After-tax unrealized (losses) gains on derivatives

 

(0.02

)

0.01

 

NMF

 

0.04

 

(0.11

)

NMF

 

Operating income (b)

 

$

0.53

 

$

0.52

 

2

%

$

1.55

 

$

2.09

 

(26

)%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Book value

 

$

24.02

 

$

21.81

 

10

%

 

 

 

 

 

 

Plus: Net unearned premium reserve less DAC, after-tax (1)

 

4.72

 

3.72

 

27

%

 

 

 

 

 

 

Plus: Net present value of estimated future installment premiums in-force, after-tax (d)

 

5.69

 

4.09

 

39

%

 

 

 

 

 

 

Adjusted book value (c)

 

$

34.43

 

$

29.62

 

16

%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Additional information:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Shares outstanding at the end of period (2)

 

73.1

 

74.9

 

(2

)%

 

 

 

 

 

 

Weighted average basic shares outstanding

 

73.2

 

73.9

 

(1

)%

73.5

 

74.0

 

(1

)%

Weighted average diluted shares outstanding

 

74.2

 

74.5

 

(0.4

)%

74.5

 

74.5

 

0

%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Consolidated net debt service outstanding

 

$

167,382

 

$

139,093

 

20

%

 

 

 

 

 

 

Consolidated net par outstanding

 

121,579

 

97,320

 

25

%

 

 

 

 

 

 

Consolidated claims-paying resources

 

3,337

 

3,077

 

8

%

 

 

 

 

 

 

Gross par written

 

13,493

 

6,862

 

97

%

36,905

 

15,815

 

133

%


1. Unearned premium reserve (UPR) less pre-paid reinsurance premiums and deferred acquisition costs (DAC), all after-tax.

2. 9/30/06 shares outstanding excludes 1.1 million of nonvested restricted stock, which is considered not issued under FAS 123R. 12/31/05 shares outstanding includes 1.0 million of nonvested restricted stock.

Note: Please refer to endnotes for explanation of non-GAAP financial measures [PVP (a), operating income and operating ROE (b), adjusted book value (c), and net present value of estimated future installment premiums in force (d)].

1




 

Assured Guaranty Ltd.
Consolidated GAAP Income Statements
(dollars and shares in millions, except per share amounts)

 

 

Quarter Ended

 

% Change

 

Nine Months Ended

 

% Change

 

 

 

September 30,

 

versus

 

September 30,

 

versus

 

 

 

2006

 

2005

 

3Q-05

 

2006

 

2005

 

9M 2005

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Revenues

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Gross written premiums

 

$

73.6

 

$

75.6

 

(3

)%

$

240.5

 

$

194.1

 

24

%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Net written premiums

 

73.1

 

53.2

 

37

%

234.2

 

159.9

 

46

%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Net earned premiums

 

51.9

 

54.5

 

(5

)%

148.2

 

150.9

 

(2

)%

Net investment income

 

28.5

 

24.4

 

17

%

82.0

 

71.2

 

15

%

Other income

 

 

0.1

 

(100

)%

 

0.2

 

(100

)%

Total revenues

 

80.4

 

79.0

 

2

%

230.2

 

222.3

 

4

%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Expenses

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Loss and loss adjustment expenses

 

0.9

 

(0.8

)

(213

)%

(6.0

)

(69.3

)

(91

)%

Profit commission expense

 

1.6

 

2.0

 

(20

)%

4.7

 

6.4

 

(27

)%

Acquisition costs

 

11.3

 

13.0

 

(13

)%

33.4

 

34.9

 

(4

)%

Other operating expenses

 

16.5

 

15.0

 

10

%

49.3

 

44.0

 

12

%

Other expenses

 

4.0

 

4.1

 

(2

)%

12.0

 

13.3

 

(10

)%

Total expenses

 

34.4

 

33.3

 

3

%

93.4

 

29.2

 

220

%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Income before provision for income taxes

 

46.0

 

45.7

 

1

%

136.8

 

193.1

 

(29

)%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Total provision for income taxes

 

7.0

 

6.8

 

3

%

21.1

 

37.7

 

(44

)%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Operating income (b)

 

39.0

 

38.9

 

0.3

%

115.7

 

155.4

 

(26

)%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

After-tax realized gains (losses) on investments

 

 

0.1

 

NMF

 

(1.4

)

2.8

 

NMF

 

After-tax unrealized (losses) gains on derivatives

 

(1.1

)

0.2

 

NMF

 

3.0

 

(7.9

)

NMF

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Net income

 

$

37.9

 

$

39.2

 

(3

)%

$

117.3

 

$

150.3

 

(22

)%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Per diluted share

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Operating income (b)

 

$

0.53

 

$

0.52

 

2

%

$

1.55

 

$

2.09

 

(26

)%

After-tax realized (losses) gains on investments

 

 

 

 

(0.02

)

0.04

 

NMF

 

After-tax unrealized (losses) gains on derivatives

 

(0.02

)

0.01

 

NMF

 

0.04

 

(0.11

)

NMF

 

Net income

 

$

0.51

 

$

0.53

 

(4

)%

$

1.57

 

$

2.02

 

(22

)%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Weighted average shares outstanding

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Basic shares outstanding

 

73.2

 

73.9

 

(1

)%

73.5

 

74.0

 

(1

)%

Plus: effect of options

 

0.6

 

0.3

 

100

%

0.6

 

0.2

 

200

%

Plus: effect of restricted stock

 

0.4

 

0.2

 

100

%

0.4

 

0.2

 

100

%

Diluted shares outstanding

 

74.2

 

74.5

 

(0.4

)%

74.5

 

74.5

 

0

%


Note: Please refer to endnotes for explanation of non-GAAP financial measures [PVP (a), operating income and operating ROE (b), and adjusted book value (c)].

Some amounts may not foot due to rounding.

2




 

Assured Guaranty Ltd.
Consolidated GAAP Balance Sheets
(dollars in millions)

 

 

As of :

 

 

 

September 30,

 

December 31,

 

 

 

2006

 

2005

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Assets

 

 

 

 

 

Fixed maturity securities, at fair value

 

$

2,210.0

 

$

2,134.0

 

Short-term investments, at cost which approximates fair value

 

169.4

 

115.8

 

Total investments

 

2,379.4

 

2,249.8

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Cash and cash equivalents

 

15.7

 

6.2

 

Accrued investment income

 

22.6

 

22.7

 

Deferred acquisition costs

 

210.2

 

193.4

 

Prepaid reinsurance premiums

 

9.0

 

12.5

 

Reinsurance recoverable on ceded losses

 

9.4

 

12.4

 

Premiums receivable

 

33.3

 

33.0

 

Goodwill

 

85.4

 

85.4

 

Unrealized gains on derivative financial instruments

 

51.1

 

53.0

 

Current income taxes receivable

 

6.9

 

3.0

 

Other assets

 

22.0

 

17.7

 

Total assets

 

$

2,844.8

 

$

2,689.1

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Liabilities and shareholders’ equity

 

 

 

 

 

Liabilities

 

 

 

 

 

Unearned premium reserves

 

$

619.7

 

$

537.1

 

Reserves for losses and loss adjustment expenses

 

116.9

 

121.2

 

Profit commissions payable

 

31.0

 

53.0

 

Reinsurance balances payable

 

2.1

 

3.7

 

Deferred income taxes

 

44.9

 

26.6

 

Funds held by Company under reinsurance contracts

 

20.3

 

19.2

 

Unrealized losses on derivative financial instruments

 

6.6

 

12.7

 

Long-term debt

 

197.4

 

197.3

 

Liability for tax basis step-up adjustment

 

15.2

 

20.1

 

Other liabilities

 

33.9

 

36.6

 

Total liabilities

 

1,087.9

 

1,027.6

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Shareholders’ equity

 

 

 

 

 

Common stock

 

0.7

 

0.7

 

Additional paid-in capital

 

856.2

 

882.0

 

Unearned stock grant compensation

 

 

(14.8

)

Retained earnings

 

857.1

 

747.7

 

Accumulated other comprehensive income

 

42.8

 

45.8

 

Total shareholders’ equity

 

1,756.9

 

1,661.5

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Total liabilities and shareholders’ equity

 

$

2,844.8

 

$

2,689.1

 

 

3




 

Assured Guaranty Ltd.
Segment Consolidation (1 of 2)
(dollars in millions)

 

 

Quarter Ended September 30, 2006

 

 

 

Financial

 

Financial

 

 

 

Total

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Guaranty

 

Guaranty

 

Mortgage

 

Financial

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Direct

 

Reinsurance(1)

 

Guaranty

 

Guaranty

 

Other

 

Total

 

Present value of financial guaranty gross written premiums (PVP): (a)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

U.S. public finance

 

$

8.2

 

$

11.4

 

$

 

$

19.6

 

 

 

$

19.6

 

U.S. structured finance

 

45.7

 

3.8

 

 

49.5

 

 

 

49.5

 

International

 

36.9

 

21.4

 

 

58.3

 

 

 

58.3

 

Total PVP

 

$

90.9

 

$

36.5

 

$

 

$

127.4

 

 

 

$

127.4

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Income statement:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Gross written premiums

 

$

41.9

 

$

29.7

 

$

1.9

 

$

73.5

 

$

0.1

 

$

73.6

 

Net written premiums

 

41.5

 

29.7

 

1.9

 

73.1

 

 

73.1

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Net earned premiums

 

21.8

 

25.4

 

4.9

 

51.9

 

 

51.9

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Loss and loss adjustment expenses

 

(0.3

)

1.8

 

0.4

 

1.9

 

(1.0

)

0.9

 

Profit commission expense

 

 

0.7

 

0.9

 

1.6

 

 

1.6

 

Acquisition costs

 

2.1

 

8.9

 

0.3

 

11.3

 

 

11.3

 

Operating expenses

 

12.2

 

3.9

 

0.4

 

16.5

 

 

16.5

 

Total underwriting expenses

 

$

14.0

 

$

15.3

 

$

2.0

 

$

31.3

 

$

(1.0

)

$

30.3

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Underwriting gain

 

$

7.7

 

$

10.1

 

$

2.9

 

$

20.6

 

$

1.0

 

$

21.6

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Loss and loss adjustment expense ratio

 

(1.3

)%

7.1

%

8.2

%

3.7

%

 

 

1.8

%

Expense ratio

 

65.7

%

53.3

%

31.9

%

56.6

%

 

 

56.6

%

Combined ratio

 

64.4

%

60.4

%

40.1

%

60.3

%

 

 

58.4

%

 

 

 

Quarter Ended September 30, 2005

 

 

 

Financial

 

Financial

 

 

 

Total

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Guaranty

 

Guaranty

 

Mortgage

 

Financial

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Direct

 

Reinsurance(1)

 

Guaranty

 

Guaranty

 

Other

 

Total

 

PVP:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

U.S. public finance

 

$

6.3

 

$

16.5

 

$

 

$

22.8

 

 

 

$

22.8

 

U.S. structured finance

 

25.3

 

2.3

 

 

27.6

 

 

 

27.6

 

International

 

7.7

 

3.7

 

 

11.4

 

 

 

11.4

 

Total PVP

 

$

39.4

 

$

22.5

 

$

 

$

61.9

 

 

 

$

61.9

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Income statement:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Gross written premiums

 

$

24.9

 

$

27.3

 

$

1.7

 

$

53.9

 

$

21.6

 

$

75.6

 

Net written premiums

 

24.2

 

27.3

 

1.7

 

53.2

 

 

53.2

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Net earned premiums

 

18.3

 

32.0

 

4.3

 

54.5

 

 

54.5

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Loss and loss adjustment expenses

 

(4.0

)

4.3

 

0.3

 

0.6

 

(1.3

)

(0.8

)

Profit commission expense

 

 

1.1

 

0.9

 

2.0

 

 

2.0

 

Acquisition costs

 

1.6

 

11.0

 

0.4

 

13.0

 

 

13.0

 

Operating expenses

 

11.9

 

2.9

 

0.3

 

15.0

 

 

15.0

 

Total underwriting expenses

 

$

9.5

 

$

19.2

 

$

1.9

 

$

30.6

 

$

(1.3

)

$

29.2

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Underwriting gain

 

$

8.8

 

$

12.8

 

$

2.4

 

$

24.0

 

$

1.3

 

$

25.3

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Loss and loss adjustment expense ratio

 

(21.9

)%

13.3

%

6.9

%

1.0

%

 

 

(1.5

)%

Expense ratio

 

73.7

%

46.8

%

37.5

%

55.1

%

 

 

55.0

%

Combined ratio

 

51.8

%

60.1

%

44.4

%

56.1

%

 

 

53.5

%


1. Due to the timing of receiving reports prepared by our ceding companies, present value of treaty financial guaranty gross written premiums (PVP) for installment premiums, par written and par outstanding in our Financial Guaranty Reinsurance segment are reported on a one-quarter lag. PVP of facultative financial guaranty gross written premiums for installment premiums, par written and par outstanding in our Financial Guaranty Reinsurance segment are reported on a current quarter basis effective Q1 2006; 2005 and prior amounts were reported on a one-quarter lag.

Note: Please refer to endnotes for explanation of non-GAAP financial measures [PVP (a), operating income and operating ROE (b), and adjusted book value (c)].

4




 

Assured Guaranty Ltd.
Segment Consolidation (2 of 2)
(dollars in millions)

 

 

Nine Months Ended September 30, 2006

 

 

 

Financial

 

Financial

 

 

 

Total

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Guaranty

 

Guaranty

 

Mortgage

 

Financial

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Direct

 

Reinsurance(1)

 

Guaranty

 

Guaranty

 

Other

 

Total

 

Present value of financial guaranty gross written premiums (PVP): (a)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

U.S. public finance

 

$

22.7

 

$

49.6

 

$

 

$

72.3

 

 

 

$

72.3

 

U.S. structured finance

 

114.3

 

9.1

 

 

123.4

 

 

 

123.4

 

International

 

94.4

 

47.6

 

 

141.9

 

 

 

141.9

 

Total PVP

 

$

231.4

 

$

106.2

 

$

 

$

337.6

 

 

 

$

337.6

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Income statement:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Gross written premiums

 

$

140.5

 

$

90.2

 

$

5.7

 

$

236.5

 

$

4.0

 

$

240.5

 

Net written premiums

 

139.0

 

89.5

 

5.7

 

234.2

 

 

234.2

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Net earned premiums

 

63.7

 

71.8

 

12.7

 

148.2

 

 

148.2

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Loss and loss adjustment expenses

 

(4.6

)

10.3

 

0.6

 

6.3

 

(12.3

)

(6.0

)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Profit commission expense

 

 

2.2

 

2.5

 

4.7

 

 

4.7

 

Acquisition costs

 

6.4

 

26.1

 

0.9

 

33.4

 

 

33.4

 

Operating expenses

 

37.6

 

10.7

 

1.0

 

49.3

 

 

49.3

 

Total underwriting expenses

 

$

39.4

 

$

49.2

 

$

5.0

 

$

93.7

 

$

(12.3

)

$

81.4

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Underwriting gain

 

$

24.3

 

$

22.6

 

$

7.7

 

$

54.5

 

$

12.3

 

$

66.8

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Loss and loss adjustment expense ratio

 

(7.2

)%

14.3

%

4.7

%

4.3

%

 

 

(4.0

)%

Expense ratio

 

69.1

%

54.2

%

34.8

%

58.9

%

 

 

58.9

%

Combined ratio

 

61.9

%

68.5

%

39.5

%

63.2

%

 

 

54.9

%

 

 

 

Nine Months Ended September 30, 2005

 

 

 

Financial

 

Financial

 

 

 

Total

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Guaranty

 

Guaranty

 

Mortgage

 

Financial

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Direct

 

Reinsurance(1)

 

Guaranty

 

Guaranty

 

Other

 

Total

 

PVP:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

U.S. public finance

 

$

13.0

 

$

50.9

 

$

 

$

63.9

 

 

 

$

63.9

 

U.S. structured finance

 

72.4

 

10.2

 

 

82.6

 

 

 

82.6

 

International

 

14.1

 

28.8

 

13.1

 

55.9

 

 

 

55.9

 

Total PVP

 

$

99.5

 

$

89.8

 

$

13.1

 

$

202.4

 

 

 

$

202.4

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Income statement:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Gross written premiums

 

$

69.6

 

$

69.5

 

$

23.0

 

$

162.1

 

$

32.0

 

$

194.1

 

Net written premiums

 

67.6

 

69.2

 

23.0

 

159.9

 

 

159.9

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Net earned premiums

 

54.7

 

82.2

 

14.0

 

150.9

 

 

150.9

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Loss and loss adjustment expenses

 

(0.5

)

(66.9

)

0.5

 

(66.9

)

(2.4

)

(69.3

)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Profit commission expense

 

 

3.4

 

2.9

 

6.4

 

 

6.4

 

Acquisition costs

 

4.7

 

28.6

 

1.5

 

34.9

 

 

34.9

 

Operating expenses

 

32.8

 

10.4

 

0.9

 

44.0

 

 

44.0

 

Total underwriting expenses

 

$

37.0

 

$

(24.6

)

$

5.8

 

$

18.2

 

$

(2.4

)

$

15.8

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Underwriting gain

 

$

17.7

 

$

106.8

 

$

8.2

 

$

132.8

 

$

2.4

 

$

134.9

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Loss and loss adjustment expense ratio

 

(0.8

)%

(81.4

)%

3.5

%

(44.3

)%

 

 

(45.9

)%

Expense ratio

 

68.5

%

51.5

%

37.9

%

56.4

%

 

 

56.5

%

Combined ratio

 

67.7

%

(29.9

)%

41.4

%

12.1

%

 

 

10.6

%


1. Due to the timing of receiving reports prepared by our ceding companies, present value of treaty financial guaranty gross written premiums (PVP) for installment premiums, par written and par outstanding in our Financial Guaranty Reinsurance segment are reported on a one-quarter lag. PVP of facultative financial guaranty gross written premiums for installment premiums, par written and par outstanding in our Financial Guaranty Reinsurance segment are reported on a current quarter basis effective Q1 2006; 2005 and prior amounts were reported on a one-quarter lag.

Note: Please refer to endnotes for explanation of non-GAAP financial measures [PVP (a), operating income and operating ROE (b), and adjusted book value (c)].

5




 

Assured Guaranty Ltd.
Financial Guaranty Direct Segment (1 of 2)
(dollars in millions)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Nine

 

Nine

 

Nine

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Months

 

Months

 

Months

 

 

 

4Q-04

 

1Q-05

 

2Q-05

 

3Q-05

 

4Q-05

 

1Q-06

 

2Q-06

 

3Q-06

 

2004

 

2005

 

2006

 

Present value of gross written premiums (PVP) (a)

 

$

39.6

 

$

37.5

 

$

22.7

 

$

39.4

 

$

46.0

 

$

41.6

 

$

98.8

 

$

90.9

 

$

30.1

 

$

99.5

 

$

231.4

 

Less: Present value of installment premiums (a)

 

33.9

 

35.8

 

17.6

 

33.0

 

38.7

 

33.2

 

53.1

 

69.4

 

30.1

 

86.4

 

155.7

 

Upfront gross written premiums (GWP)

 

5.7

 

1.7

 

5.1

 

6.3

 

7.3

 

8.5

 

45.7

 

21.5

 

 

13.1

 

75.7

 

Plus: Installment GWP

 

15.6

 

22.1

 

15.8

 

18.6

 

19.3

 

21.8

 

22.7

 

20.4

 

59.4

 

56.5

 

64.8

 

Financial guaranty direct GWP

 

$

21.3

 

$

23.8

 

$

20.9

 

$

24.9

 

$

26.6

 

$

30.2

 

$

68.4

 

$

41.9

 

$

59.4

 

$

69.6

 

$

140.5

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Income statement:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Gross written premiums

 

$

21.3

 

$

23.8

 

$

20.9

 

$

24.9

 

$

26.6

 

$

30.2

 

$

68.4

 

$

41.9

 

$

59.4

 

$

69.6

 

$

140.5

 

Net written premiums

 

20.9

 

23.1

 

20.4

 

24.2

 

26.3

 

29.7

 

67.8

 

41.5

 

56.7

 

67.6

 

139.0

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Net earned premiums:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Public finance

 

0.1

 

0.1

 

0.4

 

0.7

 

1.5

 

1.1

 

1.7

 

2.6

 

0.1

 

1.3

 

5.4

 

Structured finance

 

15.4

 

20.3

 

15.6

 

17.6

 

18.3

 

19.6

 

19.5

 

19.2

 

73.2

 

53.4

 

58.3

 

Total net earned premiums

 

15.5

 

20.4

 

16.0

 

18.3

 

19.8

 

20.7

 

21.2

 

21.8

 

73.3

 

54.7

 

63.7

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Loss and loss adjustment expenses:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Case

 

0.4

 

 

4.4

 

 

0.4

 

(1.6

)

(0.4

)

(0.3

)

26.7

 

4.4

 

(2.3

)

Portfolio

 

0.6

 

(1.5

)

0.6

 

(4.0

)

(2.1

)

(0.2

)

(2.1

)

 

(12.9

)

(4.9

)

(2.3

)

Total loss and loss adjustment expenses

 

1.0

 

(1.5

)

5.0

 

(4.0

)

(1.7

)

(1.8

)

(2.5

)

(0.3

)

13.8

 

(0.5

)

(4.6

)

Profit commission expense

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Acquisition costs

 

1.6

 

1.5

 

1.6

 

1.6

 

1.6

 

1.8

 

2.3

 

2.1

 

2.9

 

4.7

 

6.4

 

Operating expenses (1)

 

11.5

 

11.4

 

9.5

 

11.9

 

11.5

 

13.4

 

12.0

 

12.2

 

30.3

 

32.8

 

37.6

 

Total expenses

 

$

14.1

 

$

11.4

 

$

16.1

 

$

9.5

 

$

11.4

 

$

13.5

 

$

11.8

 

$

14.0

 

$

47.0

 

$

37.0

 

$

39.4

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Underwriting gain (loss)

 

$

1.4

 

$

9.0

 

$

(0.1

)

$

8.8

 

$

8.4

 

$

7.2

 

$

9.4

 

$

7.7

 

$

26.3

 

$

17.7

 

$

24.3

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Loss and loss adjustment expense ratio

 

6.5

%

(7.1

)%

31.3

%

(21.9

)%

(8.6

)%

(8.7

)%

(11.7

)%

(1.3

)%

18.8

%

(0.8

)%

(7.2

)%

Expense ratio

 

84.6

%

63.2

%

69.1

%

73.7

%

66.3

%

73.8

%

67.4

%

65.7

%

45.4

%

68.5

%

69.1

%

Combined ratio

 

91.1

%

56.1

%

100.4

%

51.8

%

57.7

%

65.1

%

55.7

%

64.4

%

64.2

%

67.7

%

61.9

%


1. During 2006 the Company implemented a new operating expense methodology to more closely apply expenses to the individual operating segments. This new methodology was based on a comprehensive study and is based on departmental time estimates and headcount. 2005 and 2004 amounts have been restated to show this new methodology on a comparative basis.

Note: Please refer to endnotes for explanation of non-GAAP financial measures [PVP (a), operating income and operating ROE (b), adjusted book value (c), and net present value of estimated future installment premiums in force (d)].

6




 

Assured Guaranty Ltd.
Financial Guaranty Direct Segment (2 of 2)
(dollars in millions)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Nine

 

Nine

 

Nine

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Months

 

Months

 

Months

 

 

 

4Q-04

 

1Q-05

 

2Q-05

 

3Q-05

 

4Q-05

 

1Q-06

 

2Q-06

 

3Q-06

 

2004

 

2005

 

2006

 

PVP (a):

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

U.S. public finance

 

$

5.7

 

$

1.6

 

$

5.1

 

$

6.3

 

$

7.0

 

$

8.5

 

$

6.0

 

$

8.2

 

$

0.0

 

$

13.0

 

$

22.7

 

U.S. structured finance

 

28.9

 

31.0

 

16.1

 

25.3

 

20.5

 

27.6

 

41.0

 

45.7

 

23.2

 

72.4

 

114.3

 

International

 

5.0

 

4.9

 

1.5

 

7.7

 

18.4

 

5.6

 

51.8

 

36.9

 

6.9

 

14.1

 

94.4

 

Total

 

$

39.6

 

$

37.5

 

$

22.7

 

$

39.4

 

$

46.0

 

$

41.6

 

$

98.8

 

$

90.9

 

$

30.1

 

$

99.5

 

231.4

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Par written:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

U.S. public finance

 

$

194

 

$

77

 

$

262

 

$

224

 

$

383

 

$

283

 

$

326

 

$

423

 

$

1

 

$

564

 

$

1,032

 

U.S. structured finance

 

7,163

 

1,173

 

2,159

 

4,635

 

4,966

 

4,446

 

10,943

 

4,968

 

4,685

 

7,967

 

20,357

 

International

 

100

 

265

 

102

 

353

 

2,569

 

648

 

2,210

 

5,375

 

853

 

720

 

8,233

 

Total

 

$

7,457

 

$

1,515

 

$

2,524

 

$

5,212

 

$

7,918

 

$

5,377

 

$

13,479

 

$

10,766

 

$

5,539

 

$

9,250

 

$

29,622

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Par outstanding:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

U.S. public finance

 

$

2,189

 

$

2,238

 

$

2,421

 

$

2,641

 

$

3,022

 

$

3,250

 

$

2,471

 

$

2,878

 

$

1,991

 

$

2,641

 

$

2,878

 

U.S. structured finance

 

25,166

 

24,589

 

23,873

 

26,781

 

28,917

 

31,559

 

38,847

 

39,191

 

22,192

 

26,781

 

39,191

 

International

 

4,257

 

3,763

 

3,725

 

3,975

 

6,400

 

7,215

 

9,806

 

14,865

 

2,274

 

3,975

 

14,865

 

Total

 

$

31,612

 

$

30,590

 

$

30,019

 

$

33,397

 

$

38,338

 

$

42,024

 

$

51,124

 

$

56,935

 

$

26,457

 

$

33,397

 

$

56,935

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Net present value of installment premiums in force: (d)

 

$

231.0

 

$

238.3

 

$

216.4

 

$

230.4

 

$

249.6

 

$

265.7

 

$

300.5

 

$

358.4

 

$

218.9

 

$

230.4

 

$

358.4

 

Unearned premium reserve net of ceded reinsurance

 

20.3

 

23.0

 

27.0

 

33.2

 

39.6

 

48.6

 

95.2

 

114.9

 

14.7

 

33.2

 

114.9

 


Note: Please refer to endnotes for explanation of non-GAAP financial measures [PVP (a), operating income and operating ROE (b), adjusted book value (c), and net present value of estimated future installment premiums in force (d)].

7




 

Assured Guaranty Ltd.
Financial Guaranty Reinsurance Segment (1) (1 of 2)
(dollars in millions)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Nine

 

Nine

 

Nine

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Months

 

Months

 

Months

 

 

 

4Q-04

 

1Q-05

 

2Q-05

 

3Q-05

 

4Q-05

 

1Q-06

 

2Q-06

 

3Q-06

 

2004

 

2005

 

2006

 

Present value of gross written premiums (PVP) (a)

 

$

35.7

 

$

32.1

 

$

35.2

 

$

22.5

 

$

37.9

 

$

20.1

 

$

49.6

 

$

36.5

 

$

157.1

 

$

89.8

 

$

106.2

 

Less: Present value of installment premiums (a)

 

11.6

 

12.1

 

20.7

 

7.2

 

18.5

 

11.0

 

17.7

 

16.8

 

71.7

 

40.0

 

45.5

 

Upfront gross written premiums (GWP)

 

24.1

 

20.0

 

14.6

 

15.3

 

19.4

 

9.1

 

31.9

 

19.8

 

85.4

 

49.8

 

60.8

 

Less: Upfront premium due to novations (2)

 

 

 

18.4

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

18.4

 

 

Plus: Installment GWP (3)

 

12.4

 

14.0

 

12.0

 

12.0

 

9.1

 

9.7

 

9.8

 

9.9

 

38.4

 

38.1

 

29.4

 

Financial guaranty reinsurance GWP

 

$

36.5

 

$

34.0

 

$

8.2

 

$

27.3

 

$

28.5

 

$

18.8

 

$

41.7

 

$

29.7

 

$

123.8

 

$

69.5

 

$

90.2

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Income statement:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Gross written premiums:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Treaty

 

$

23.3

 

$

22.4

 

$

4.3

 

$

21.0

 

$

24.6

 

$

12.0

 

$

29.1

 

$

22.4

 

$

112.5

 

$

47.7

 

$

63.4

 

Facultative

 

13.2

 

11.6

 

3.9

 

6.3

 

3.9

 

6.8

 

12.6

 

7.3

 

11.3

 

21.8

 

26.7

 

Total gross written premiums

 

$

36.5

 

$

34.0

 

$

8.2

 

$

27.3

 

$

28.5

 

$

18.8

 

$

41.7

 

$

29.7

 

$

123.8

 

$

69.5

 

$

90.2

 

Net written premiums

 

36.3

 

34.0

 

8.0

 

27.3

 

28.5

 

18.5

 

41.3

 

29.7

 

123.8

 

69.2

 

89.5

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Net earned premiums:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Scheduled net earned premiums

 

31.5

 

21.6

 

23.6

 

27.2

 

21.3

 

19.7

 

21.4

 

21.3

 

65.3

 

72.4

 

62.4

 

Net earned premiums from refundings

 

5.0

 

1.4

 

3.6

 

4.8

 

2.2

 

3.6

 

1.7

 

4.1

 

12.5

 

9.8

 

9.4

 

Total net earned premiums

 

36.5

 

23.0

 

27.2

 

32.0

 

23.5

 

23.3

 

23.1

 

25.4

 

77.8

 

82.2

 

71.8

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Loss and loss adjustment expenses:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Case

 

1.2

 

(7.5

)

(60.4

)

(0.2

)

4.0

 

2.3

 

1.8

 

(1.2

)

2.0

 

(68.1

)

2.9

 

Portfolio

 

0.4

 

0.4

 

(3.7

)

4.5

 

1.6

 

0.5

 

3.9

 

3.0

 

11.8

 

1.2

 

7.4

 

Total loss and loss adjustment expenses

 

1.6

 

(7.1

)

(64.1

)

4.3

 

5.6

 

2.8

 

5.7

 

1.8

 

13.8

 

(66.9

)

10.3

 

Profit commission expense

 

0.9

 

 

2.3

 

1.1

 

1.4

 

0.4

 

1.0

 

0.7

 

0.2

 

3.4

 

2.2

 

Acquisition costs

 

13.0

 

8.1

 

9.5

 

11.0

 

8.3

 

8.7

 

8.5

 

8.9

 

25.9

 

28.6

 

26.1

 

Operating expenses (4)

 

2.8

 

2.8

 

4.7

 

2.9

 

3.4

 

3.4

 

3.4

 

3.9

 

7.3

 

10.4

 

10.7

 

Total expenses

 

$

18.2

 

$

3.8

 

$

(47.6

)

$

19.2

 

$

18.7

 

$

15.3

 

$

18.5

 

$

15.3

 

$

47.2

 

$

(24.6

)

$

49.2

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Underwriting gain

 

$

18.2

 

$

19.2

 

$

74.8

 

$

12.8

 

$

4.8

 

$

8.0

 

$

4.6

 

$

10.1

 

$

30.6

 

$

106.8

 

$

22.6

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Loss and loss adjustment expense ratio

 

4.4

%

(30.9

)%

(235.7

)%

13.3

%

23.9

%

12.0

%

24.6

%

7.1

%

17.7

%

(81.4

)%

14.3

%

Expense ratio

 

45.6

%

47.4

%

60.7

%

46.8

%

55.8

%

53.6

%

55.4

%

53.3

%

43.0

%

51.5

%

54.2

%

Combined ratio

 

50.0

%

16.5

%

(175.0

)%

60.1

%

79.7

%

65.6

%

80.0

%

60.4

%

60.7

%

(29.9

)%

68.5

%


1. Due to the timing of receiving reports prepared by our ceding companies, present value of treaty financial guaranty gross written premiums (PVP) for installment premiums, par written and par outstanding in our Financial Guaranty Reinsurance segment are reported on a one-quarter lag. PVP of facultative financial guaranty gross written premiums for installment premiums, par written and par outstanding in our Financial Guaranty Reinsurance segment are reported on a current quarter basis effective Q1 2006; 2005 and prior amounts were reported on a one-quarter lag.

2. Relates to reassumption by FSA of approximately $820 million par value of healthcare related business.

3. Installment gross written premiums includes the reclassification of certain deals originally recorded as installment that were discovered during 3Q-04 to be upfront premiums. As a result, prior period amounts have been restated. This reclass had an immaterial impact on our QTD and YTD results of operations and financial condition.

4. During 2006 the Company implemented a new operating expense methodology to more closely apply expenses to the individual operating segments. This new methodology was based on a comprehensive study and is based on departmental time estimates and headcount. 2005 and 2004 amounts have been restated to show this new methodology on a comparative basis.

Note: Please refer to endnotes for explanation of non-GAAP financial measures [PVP (a), operating income and operating ROE (b), and adjusted book value (c)].

8




 

Assured Guaranty Ltd.
Financial Guaranty Reinsurance Segment (1) (2 of 2)
(dollars in millions)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Nine

 

Nine

 

Nine

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Months

 

Months

 

Months

 

 

 

4Q-04

 

1Q-05

 

2Q-05

 

3Q-05

 

4Q-05

 

1Q-06

 

2Q-06

 

3Q-06

 

2004

 

2005

 

2006

 

PVP (a):

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

U.S. public finance

 

$

21.6

 

$

18.9

 

$

15.4

 

$

16.5

 

$

23.1

 

$

8.5

 

$

29.7

 

$

11.4

 

$

81.0

 

$

50.9

 

$

49.6

 

U.S. structured finance

 

7.5

 

3.1

 

4.9

 

2.3

 

8.7

 

3.4

 

2.0

 

3.8

 

30.5

 

10.2

 

9.1

 

International

 

6.6

 

10.1

 

15.0

 

3.7

 

6.1

 

8.3

 

17.9

 

21.4

 

45.6

 

28.8

 

47.6

 

Total

 

$

35.7

 

$

32.1

 

$

35.2

 

$

22.5

 

$

37.9

 

$

20.1

 

$

49.6

 

$

36.5

 

$

157.1

 

$

89.8

 

$

106.2

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Par written:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

U.S. public finance

 

$

1,373

 

$

1,965

 

$

265

 

$

1,155

 

$

1,710

 

$

1,631

 

$

718

 

$

1,475

 

$

4,970

 

$

3,385

 

$

3,825

 

U.S. structured finance

 

682

 

1,718

 

308

 

309

 

616

 

504

 

251

 

453

 

1,645

 

2,335

 

1,208

 

International

 

249

 

241

 

418

 

186

 

260

 

617

 

835

 

800

 

1,458

 

846

 

2,251

 

Total

 

$

2,304

 

$

3,924

 

$

991

 

$

1,650

 

$

2,586

 

$

2,752

 

$

1,804

 

$

2,727

 

$

8,074

 

$

6,565

 

$

7,284

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Par outstanding:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

U.S. public finance

 

$

48,218

 

$

49,318

 

$

47,878

 

$

47,696

 

$

47,748

 

$

48,309

 

$

48,316

 

$

48,335

 

$

49,843

 

$

47,696

 

$

48,335

 

U.S. structured finance

 

9,814

 

10,404

 

10,325

 

9,686

 

9,661

 

9,387

 

8,314

 

8,046

 

10,125

 

9,686

 

8,046

 

International

 

5,948

 

6,082

 

6,645

 

6,540

 

6,719

 

7,196

 

7,857

 

8,263

 

6,042

 

6,540

 

8,263

 

Total

 

$

63,980

 

$

65,804

 

$

64,848

 

$

63,922

 

$

64,127

 

$

64,893

 

$

64,487

 

$

64,644

 

$

66,010

 

$

63,922

 

$

64,644

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Net present value of installment premiums in force (d)

 

$

138.9

 

$

142.9

 

$

152.3

 

$

147.4

 

$

156.1

 

$

153.8

 

$

158.9

 

$

164.5

 

$

138.0

 

$

147.4

 

$

164.5

 

Unearned premium reserve net of ceded reinsurance

 

443.8

 

454.8

 

435.6

 

430.9

 

436.0

 

431.2

 

449.4

 

453.8

 

444.2

 

430.9

 

453.8

 


1. Due to the timing of receiving reports prepared by our ceding companies, present value of treaty financial guaranty gross written premiums (PVP) for installment premiums, par written and par outstanding in our Financial Guaranty Reinsurance segment are reported on a one-quarter lag. PVP of facultative financial guaranty gross written premiums for installment premiums, par written and par outstanding in our Financial Guaranty Reinsurance segment are reported on a current quarter basis effective Q1 2006; 2005 and prior amounts were reported on a one-quarter lag.

Note: Please refer to endnotes for explanation of non-GAAP financial measures [PVP (a), operating income and operating ROE (b), adjusted book value (c), and net present value of estimated future installment premiums in force (d)].

9




 

Assured Guaranty Ltd.
Mortgage Guaranty Segment
(dollars in millions)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Nine

 

Nine

 

Nine

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Months

 

Months

 

Months

 

 

 

4Q-04

 

1Q-05

 

2Q-05

 

3Q-05

 

4Q-05

 

1Q-06

 

2Q-06

 

3Q-06

 

2004

 

2005

 

2006

 

Present value of gross written premiums (PVP) (a)

 

$

6.9

 

$

13.1

 

$

 

$

 

$

 

$

 

$

 

$

 

$

20.3

 

$

13.1

 

$

 

Less: Present value of installment premiums (a)

 

6.9

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

10.0

 

 

 

Upfront gross written premiums (GWP)

 

 

13.1

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

10.3

 

13.1

 

 

Plus: Installment GWP

 

4.2

 

6.3

 

1.9

 

1.7

 

2.7

 

2.6

 

1.2

 

1.9

 

9.9

 

10.0

 

5.7

 

Mortgage guaranty GWP

 

$

4.2

 

$

19.4

 

$

1.9

 

$

1.7

 

$

2.7

 

$

2.6

 

$

1.2

 

$

1.9

 

$

20.2

 

$

23.0

 

$

5.7

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Income statement:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Gross written premiums

 

$

4.2

 

$

19.4

 

$

1.9

 

$

1.7

 

$

2.7

 

$

2.6

 

$

1.2

 

$

1.9

 

$

20.2

 

$

23.0

 

$

5.7

 

Net written premiums

 

4.2

 

19.4

 

1.9

 

1.7

 

2.7

 

2.6

 

1.2

 

1.9

 

20.2

 

23.0

 

5.7

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Net earned premiums

 

5.2

 

4.6

 

5.1

 

4.3

 

4.6

 

4.2

 

3.7

 

4.9

 

28.5

 

14.0

 

12.7

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Loss and loss adjustment expenses:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Case

 

(0.2

)

0.1

 

(0.1

)

0.2

 

(0.2

)

 

0.1

 

0.1

 

0.2

 

0.2

 

0.2

 

Portfolio and IBNR

 

(1.8

)

0.1

 

0.1

 

0.1

 

(4.0

)

(0.2

)

0.3

 

0.3

 

(10.1

)

0.3

 

0.4

 

Total loss and loss adjustment expenses

 

(2.0

)

0.2

 

 

0.3

 

(4.2

)

(0.2

)

0.4

 

0.4

 

(9.9

)

0.5

 

0.6

 

Profit commission expense

 

3.5

 

1.0

 

1.0

 

0.9

 

5.1

 

0.9

 

0.7

 

0.9

 

10.6

 

2.9

 

2.5

 

Acquisition costs

 

0.6

 

0.5

 

0.6

 

0.4

 

0.4

 

0.3

 

0.3

 

0.3

 

3.1

 

1.5

 

0.9

 

Operating expenses (1)

 

0.3

 

0.3

 

0.3

 

0.3

 

0.3

 

0.3

 

0.3

 

0.4

 

0.8

 

0.9

 

1.0

 

Total expenses

 

$

2.4

 

$

2.0

 

$

1.9

 

$

1.9

 

$

1.7

 

$

1.3

 

$

1.7

 

$

2.0

 

$

4.6

 

$

5.8

 

$

5.0

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Underwriting gain

 

$

2.8

 

$

2.6

 

$

3.2

 

$

2.4

 

$

2.9

 

$

2.8

 

$

2.0

 

$

2.9

 

$

23.9

 

$

8.2

 

$

7.7

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Loss and loss adjustment expense ratio

 

(37.8

)%

4.3

%

 

6.9

%

(92.1

)%

(3.7

)%

9.4

%

8.2

%

(34.7

)%

3.5

%

4.7

%

Expense ratio

 

84.2

%

39.1

%

37.5

%

37.5

%

129.1

%

36.1

%

36.4

%

31.9

%

50.9

%

37.9

%

34.8

%

Combined ratio

 

46.4

%

43.4

%

37.5

%

44.4

%

37.0

%

32.4

%

45.8

%

40.1

%

16.2

%

41.4

%

39.5

%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Risk in force

 

$

2,325

 

$

2,582

 

$

2,547

 

$

2,389

 

$

2,332

 

$

1,970

 

$

1,960

 

$

2,003

 

$

2,437

 

$

2,389

 

$

2,003

 

Risk written

 

271

 

419

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

372

 

419

 

 

Unearned premium reserve net of ceded reinsurance

 

42.7

 

57.5

 

54.2

 

51.5

 

49.7

 

48.1

 

45.6

 

42.6

 

43.7

 

51.5

 

42.6

 


1. During 2006 the Company implemented a new operating expense methodology to more closely apply expenses to the individual operating segments. This new methodology was based on a comprehensive study and is based on departmental time estimates and headcount. 2005 and 2004 amounts have been restated to show this new methodology on a comparative basis.

Note: Please refer to endnotes for explanation of non-GAAP financial measures [PVP (a), operating income and operating ROE (b), and adjusted book value (c)].

10




 

Assured Guaranty Ltd.
Other Segment
(dollars in millions)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Nine

 

Nine

 

Nine

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Months

 

Months

 

Months

 

 

 

4Q-04

 

1Q-05

 

2Q-05

 

3Q-05

 

4Q-05

 

1Q-06

 

2Q-06

 

3Q-06

 

2004

 

2005

 

2006

 

Income statement:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Gross written premiums

 

$

3.8

 

$

0.9

 

$

9.5

 

$

21.6

 

$

0.4

 

$

3.8

 

$

0.1

 

$

0.1

 

$

(78.4

)

$

32.0

 

$

4.0

 

Net written premiums

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

(182.5

)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Net earned premiums

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

(48.9

)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Loss and loss adjustment expenses

 

(0.4

)

(1.1

)

 

(1.3

)

 

(1.2

)

(10.1

)

(1.0

)

(49.9

)

(2.4

)

(12.3

)

Profit commission expense

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

0.6

 

 

 

Acquisition costs

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

3.7

 

 

 

Operating expenses

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

3.5

 

 

 

Total expenses

 

$

(0.4

)

$

(1.1

)

$

 

$

(1.3

)

$

 

$

(1.2

)

$

(10.1

)

$

(1.0

)

$

(42.0

)

$

(2.4

)

$

(12.3

)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Underwriting gain (loss)

 

$

0.4

 

$

1.1

 

$

 

$

1.3

 

$

 

$

1.2

 

$

10.1

 

$

1.0

 

$

(7.1

)

$

2.4

 

$

12.3

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Loss and loss adjustment expense ratio

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

102.0

%

 

 

Expense ratio

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

(16.1

)%

 

 

Combined ratio

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

85.9

%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Net earned premiums:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Equity layer credit protection

 

$

 

$

 

$

 

$

 

$

 

$

 

$

 

$

 

$

5.4

 

$

 

$

 

Trade credit reinsurance

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

(25.3

)

 

 

Title reinsurance

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

3.3

 

 

 

Auto residual value reinsurance

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

(32.2

)

 

 

Total net earned premiums

 

$

 

$

 

$

 

$

 

$

 

$

 

$

 

$

 

$

(48.9

)

$

 

$

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Underwriting gain:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Equity layer credit protection

 

$

0.4

 

$

1.1

 

$

 

$

1.3

 

$

 

$

1.2

 

$

10.1

 

$

1.0

 

$

3.0

 

$

2.4

 

$

12.3

 

Trade credit reinsurance

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

(2.8

)

 

 

Title reinsurance

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

1.0

 

 

 

Auto residual value reinsurance

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

(7.9

)

 

 

Total underwriting gain (loss)

 

$

0.4

 

$

1.1

 

$

 

$

1.3

 

$

 

$

1.2

 

$

10.1

 

$

1.0

 

$

(7.1

)

$

2.4

 

$

12.3

 

 

11




 

Assured Guaranty Ltd.
Loss and LAE Reserves by Segment and Type
(dollars in millions)

 

 

As of September 30, 2006

 

 

 

Financial

 

Financial

 

 

 

Total

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Guaranty

 

Guaranty

 

Mortgage

 

Financial

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Direct

 

Reinsurance

 

Guaranty

 

Guaranty

 

Other

 

Total

 

Reserves by segment and type:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Case

 

$

 

$

30.5

 

$

0.2

 

$

30.7

 

$

6.6

 

$

37.3

 

IBNR

 

 

 

4.0

 

4.0

 

7.6

 

11.6

 

Portfolio

 

6.6

 

58.4

 

3.0

 

68.0

 

 

68.0

 

Total

 

$

6.6

 

$

88.9

 

$

7.2

 

$

102.7

 

$

14.2

 

$

116.9

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Portfolio reserves associated with CMC credits

 

$

1.4

 

$

31.0

 

$

 

$

32.4

 

$

 

$

32.4

 

 

 

 

As of December 31, 2005

 

 

 

Financial

 

Financial

 

 

 

Total

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Guaranty

 

Guaranty

 

Mortgage

 

Financial

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Direct

 

Reinsurance

 

Guaranty

 

Guaranty

 

Other

 

Total

 

Reserves by segment and type:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Case

 

$

4.5

 

$

33.8

 

$

0.3

 

$

38.6

 

$

7.3

 

$

45.9

 

IBNR

 

 

 

4.1

 

4.1

 

7.5

 

11.6

 

Portfolio

 

8.6

 

52.5

 

2.6

 

63.7

 

 

63.7

 

Total

 

$

13.1

 

$

86.3

 

$

7.0

 

$

106.4

 

$

14.8

 

$

121.2

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Portfolio reserves associated with CMC credits

 

$

0.6

 

$

25.7

 

$

 

$

26.4

 

$

 

$

26.4

 

 

12




 

Assured Guaranty Ltd.
Investment Portfolio
as of September 30, 2006
(dollars in millions)

 

 

 

 

Pre-Tax

 

 

 

Annualized

 

 

 

Amortized

 

Book

 

 

 

Investment

 

 

 

Cost

 

Yield

 

Fair Value

 

Income

 

Fixed maturity securities available for sale:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

U.S. Treasury securities and obligations of U.S. government agencies

 

$

117.5

 

4.9

%

$

120.3

 

$

5.8

 

Agency obligations

 

170.6

 

5.4

%

174.0

 

9.2

 

Foreign government securities

 

31.0

 

4.8

%

31.1

 

1.5

 

Obligations of states and political subdivisions

 

354.2

 

4.7

%

368.7

 

16.6

 

Insured obligations of state and political subdivisions

 

457.4

 

5.0

%

487.1

 

22.9

 

Corporate securities

 

135.0

 

5.7

%

138.6

 

7.7

 

Mortgage-backed securities:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Pass-thrus

 

588.1

 

5.3

%

582.9

 

31.2

 

PACs

 

77.2

 

4.8

%

75.7

 

3.7

 

Asset-backed securities

 

232.1

 

5.0

%

231.6

 

11.6

 

Total fixed maturity securities available for sale

 

2,163.1

 

5.1

%

2,210.0

 

110.2

 

Short-term investments

 

169.4

 

5.0

%

169.4

 

8.5

 

Total investments

 

$

2,332.5

 

5.1

%

$

2,379.4

 

$

118.7

 

 

 

 

Fair Value

 

%

 

 

 

 

 

Ratings distribution(1):

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Treasury and U.S. government obligations

 

$

120.3

 

5.4

%

 

 

 

 

Agency obligations

 

174.0

 

7.9

%

 

 

 

 

AAA/Aaa

 

1,523.5

 

68.9

%

 

 

 

 

AA/Aa

 

284.9

 

12.9

%

 

 

 

 

A/A

 

107.3

 

4.9

%

 

 

 

 

BBB/Baa

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Total

 

$

2,210.0

 

100.0

%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Duration of investment portfolio (in years):

 

 

 

4.0

 

 

 

 

 


1. Ratings are represented by the lower of the Moody’s Investor Services and Standard & Poor’s classifications.

13




 

Assured Guaranty Ltd.
Financial Guaranty Profile (1 of 3)
(dollars in millions)

 

 

Gross Par

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Written

 

As of September 30, 2006:

 

 

 

 

 

Net Par

 

 

 

Avg.

 

Sector

 

3Q 2006

 

Outstanding

 

%

 

Rating(7)

 

U.S. public finance

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

General obligation

 

$

687

 

$

12,362

 

10.2

%

A+

 

Tax backed

 

466

 

11,358

 

9.3

%

A+

 

Municipal utilities

 

231

 

9,732

 

8.0

%

A

 

Healthcare

 

426

 

6,317

 

5.2

%

A

 

Transportation

 

 

6,069

 

5.0

%

A

 

Investor-owned utilities

 

38

 

1,535

 

1.3

%

A-

 

Higher education

 

11

 

1,288

 

1.1

%

A

 

Housing

 

25

 

1,095

 

0.9

%

AA-

 

Structured municipal(1)

 

 

713

 

0.6

%

AAA

 

Other public finance(2)

 

13

 

745

 

0.6

%

A

 

Total U.S. public finance

 

$

1,898

 

$

51,213

 

42.1

%

A+

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

U.S. structured finance

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

CDOs(3)

 

$

2,935

 

$

25,364

 

20.9

%

AAA

 

Mortgage-backed and home equity

 

163

 

10,512

 

8.6

%

AA-

 

Commercial receivables(4)

 

1,229

 

6,622

 

5.4

%

AA

 

Consumer receivables(5)

 

531

 

2,689

 

2.2

%

AA-

 

Other structured finance(6)

 

563

 

2,051

 

1.7

%

AA-

 

Total U.S. structured finance

 

$

5,421

 

$

47,238

 

38.9

%

AA+

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

International

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Other structured finance

 

$

2,501

 

$

8,357

 

6.9

%

AA-

 

Public finance

 

457

 

5,590

 

4.6

%

A

 

Infrastructure

 

1,952

 

5,291

 

4.4

%

A

 

CDOs(3)

 

1,264

 

3,890

 

3.2

%

AAA

 

Total international

 

$

6,174

 

$

23,128

 

19.0

%

AA-

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Total exposures

 

$

13,493

 

$

121,579

 

100.0

%

AA-

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Mortgage guaranty risk in force

 

$

 

$

2,003

 

NA

 

NA

 


1. Structured municipal: includes excess of loss reinsurance on portfolios of municipal credits where the Company attached in excess of the AAA rating level.

2. Other public finance: primarily includes student loans and government-sponsored project finance.

3. Collateralized debt obligations (CDOs) are structured financings backed by a pool of debt obligations. These financings are typically structured in multiple tranches (layers) from equity (first loss) through super senior (high excess). Losses on defaulted pool assets are allocated successively first to the equity tranche then to higher rated tranches.

4. Commercial receivables: principally includes equipment leases and commercial mortgage-backed securities.

5. Consumer receivables: principally includes auto loan receivables and credit card receivables.

6. Other structured finance: predominantly trade receivable securitization, secured structured lending, and future flow transactions.

7. Assured Guaranty internal rating. Our scale is comparable to that of the nationally recognized rating agencies.

14




 

Assured Guaranty Ltd.
Financial Guaranty Profile (2 of 3)
(dollars in millions)

Distribution by ratings of financial guaranty portfolio

 

 

September 30, 2006

 

December 31, 2005

 

 

 

Net Par

 

 

 

Net Par

 

 

 

Ratings(1)

 

Outstanding

 

%

 

Outstanding

 

%

 

AAA/Aaa

 

$

48,291

 

39.7

%

$

34,492

 

33.7

%

AA/Aa

 

20,891

 

17.2

%

19,978

 

19.5

%

A/A

 

33,375

 

27.5

%

30,258

 

29.5

%

BBB/Baa

 

17,753

 

14.6

%

16,405

 

16.0

%

Below investment grade

 

1,269

 

1.0

%

1,332

 

1.3

%

Total exposures

 

$

121,579

 

100.0

%

$

102,465

 

100.0

%

 

Distribution by ratings of CDO exposure

 

 

September 30, 2006

 

December 31, 2005

 

 

 

Net Par

 

 

 

Net Par

 

 

 

Ratings(1)

 

Outstanding

 

%

 

Outstanding

 

%

 

AAA/Aaa

 

$

26,366

 

90.1

%

$

19,615

 

85.3

%

AA/Aa

 

2,692

 

9.2

%

2,800

 

12.2

%

A/A

 

133

 

0.5

%

326

 

1.4

%

BBB/Baa

 

16

 

0.1

%

189

 

0.8

%

Below investment grade

 

47

 

0.2

%

63

 

0.3

%

Total exposures

 

$

29,254

 

100.0

%

$

22,993

 

100.0

%

 

Distribution of CDOs by year of issue as of September 30, 2006

 

 

Net Par

 

 

 

 

 

Outstanding

 

%

 

2000 and prior

 

$

535

 

1.8

%

2001

 

1,237

 

4.2

%

2002

 

3,823

 

13.1

%

2003

 

3,628

 

12.4

%

2004

 

1,550

 

5.3

%

2005

 

7,384

 

25.2

%

2006 year to date

 

11,095

 

37.9

%

 

 

$

29,254

 

100.0

%

 

Distribution of CDOs by underlying asset type as of September 30, 2006

 

 

Net Par

 

 

 

Asset Type

 

Outstanding

 

%

 

Pooled Corporate Debt Obligations

 

$

27,036

 

92.4

%

CDO of ABS

 

2,120

 

7.2

%

Emerging Market

 

98

 

0.3

%

 

 

$

29,254

 

100.0

%


1. Assured Guaranty internal rating. Our scale is comparable to that of the nationally recognized rating agencies.

15




 

Assured Guaranty Ltd.
Financial Guaranty Profile (3 of 3)
(dollars in millions)

Geographic distribution of financial guaranty portfolio, as of September 30, 2006

 

 

Net Par

 

 

 

U.S.:

 

Outstanding

 

%

 

California

 

$

7,438

 

6.1

%

New York

 

5,751

 

4.7

%

Texas

 

3,231

 

2.7

%

Illinois

 

3,054

 

2.5

%

Florida

 

2,788

 

2.3

%

Massachusetts

 

2,581

 

2.1

%

Pennsylvania

 

2,123

 

1.7

%

New Jersey

 

2,025

 

1.7

%

Washington

 

1,919

 

1.6

%

Puerto Rico

 

1,757

 

1.4

%

Other states

 

18,547

 

15.3

%

Mortgage and structured (multiple states)

 

47,238

 

38.9

%

Total U.S.

 

$

98,451

 

81.0

%

 

International:

 

 

 

 

 

United Kingdom

 

$

14,277

 

11.7

%

Germany

 

2,952

 

2.4

%

Australia

 

1,027

 

0.8

%

Turkey

 

479

 

0.4

%

Ireland

 

423

 

0.3

%

Other

 

3,970

 

3.3

%

Total International

 

$

23,128

 

19.0

%

 

 

 

 

 

 

Total exposures

 

$

121,579

 

100.0

%

 

16




 

Assured Guaranty Ltd.
Non-Investment Grade Exposures
as of September 30, 2006
(dollars in millions)

 

 

Weighted

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Average

 

 

 

 

 

Non-Investment Grade Exposures by:

 

Remaining

 

Net Par

 

Average

 

Asset Type

 

Life

 

Outstanding

 

Rating(1)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Public finance

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Infrastructure

 

15.3

 

$

249.6

 

CC

 

Transportation

 

20.0

 

221.7

 

B

 

General obligation

 

16.7

 

104.1

 

BB+

 

Tax backed

 

17.0

 

76.0

 

BB

 

Healthcare

 

11.4

 

61.6

 

B+

 

Municipal utilities

 

11.1

 

13.1

 

C

 

Investor-owned utilities

 

14.8

 

6.5

 

BB

 

Housing

 

13.4

 

4.3

 

B

 

Other public finance

 

16.3

 

3.5

 

D

 

Total public finance

 

16.7

 

$

740.3

 

BB-

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Structured finance

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Commercial receivables

 

6.3

 

$

255.4

 

B+

 

Consumer receivables

 

2.4

 

4.2

 

BB

 

Mortgage-backed and home equity

 

8.8

 

215.9

 

B+

 

CDOs

 

4.7

 

47.0

 

B+

 

Other structured finance

 

4.7

 

6.2

 

D

 

Total structured finance

 

7.1

 

$

528.6

 

B+

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Total non-investment grade exposures

 

13.1

 

$

1,268.9

 

B

 

 

Top Ten Non-Investment Grade Exposures as of September 30, 2006

 

 

 

 

Weighted

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Average

 

 

 

 

 

Average

 

Remaining

 

Net Par

 

Name or Description

 

Rating

 

Life

 

Outstanding

 

Eurotunnel - Fixed-Link Finance & Fixed-Link Finance(2)

 

D

 

16.5

 

$

213

 

Public Finance Infrastructure Transaction

 

B

 

21.7

 

169

 

Structured Finance Domestic Auto Fleet Financing Transaction

 

BB+

 

3.0

 

150

 

Structured Finance Domestic Manufactured Housing Transactions(3)

 

BB+

 

7.0

 

131

 

Puerto Rico Public Finance Corporation

 

BB+

 

17.6

 

95

 

Northwest Airlines EETC Transactions(4)

 

D

 

9.1

 

47

 

International Airport Facility

 

BB

 

8.2

 

36

 

Structured Finance Domestic Franchise Loan Receivable Transactions(5)

 

B

 

14.5

 

33

 

Ernest N. Morial - New Orleans Exhibition Hall Authority

 

BB

 

17.0

 

29

 

Louisiana State Stadium & Exposition District

 

BB

 

21.3

 

29

 

Total

 

B

 

13.4

 

$

932

 


1. Assured Guaranty internal rating. Our scale is comparable to that of the nationally recognized rating agencies.

2. Exposure comprised of four series: $143.5 million, $36.5 million, $26.1 million, and $6.9 million - all rated ‘D’.

3. Exposure comprised of twelve series: 10 series totaling $128.2 million - rated ‘BB+’, $1.5 million rated ‘BB’, and $1.6 million rated ‘B’.

4. Exposure comprised of two series, one in the amount of $14.3 million and the other for $33.1 million both rated ‘D’.

5. Exposure comprised of two series, one in the amount of $16.6 million and the other for $16.0 million both rated ‘B’.

17




 

Assured Guaranty Ltd.
Closely Monitored Credits (“CMC”)
(dollars in millions)

Net par outstanding by credit monitoring category(1)

 

 

September 30, 2006

 

 

 

Net Par

 

 

 

Number of Credits

 

Description

 

Outstanding

 

%

 

in Category

 

Fundamentally sound risk

 

$

120,215

 

98.9

%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Closely monitored credits:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Category 1

 

857

 

0.7

%

39

 

Category 2

 

322

 

0.3

%

15

 

Category 3

 

126

 

0.1

%

18

 

Category 4

 

23

 

 

12

 

CMC Total

 

1,328

 

1.1

%

84

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Other below investment grade risk

 

36

 

 

70

 

Total

 

$

121,579

 

100.0

%

 

 

 

 

 

December 31, 2005

 

 

 

Net Par

 

 

 

Number of Credits

 

Description

 

Outstanding

 

%

 

in Category

 

Fundamentally sound risk

 

$

100,951

 

98.6

%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Closely monitored credits:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Category 1

 

872

 

0.9

%

36

 

Category 2

 

433

 

0.4

%

22

 

Category 3

 

131

 

0.1

%

15

 

Category 4

 

23

 

 

11

 

CMC Total

 

1,459

 

1.4

%

84

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Other below investment grade risk

 

55

 

 

103

 

Total

 

$

102,465

 

100.0

%

 

 


1. Our surveillance department is responsible for monitoring our portfolio of credits and maintains a list of closely monitored credits. The closely monitored credits are divided into four categories: Category 1 (low priority; fundamentally sound, greater than normal risk); Category 2 (medium priority; weakening credit profile, may result in loss); Category 3 (high priority; claim/default probable, case reserve established); Category 4 (claim paid, case reserve established for future payments). The closely monitored credits include all below investment grade (BIG) exposures where there is a material amount of exposure (generally greater than $10.0 million) or a material risk of the Company incurring a loss greater than $0.5 million. The closely monitored credits also include investment grade (IG) risks where credit quality is deteriorating and where, in the view of the Company, there is significant potential that the risk quality will fall below investment grade.

18




 

Assured Guaranty Ltd.
Largest Exposures by Sector (Part 1 of 2)
as of September 30, 2006
(dollars in millions)

10 Largest U.S. Public Finance Exposures

 

 

Net Par

 

 

 

Revenue Source

 

Outstanding(2)

 

Rating(1)

 

California State General Obligation

 

$

888

 

A

 

New Jersey State General Obligation

 

762

 

AA-

 

Long Island Power Authority

 

683

 

A-

 

New York City General Obligation

 

674

 

A+

 

Puerto Rico General Obligation

 

637

 

BBB-

 

Chicago Illinois General Obligation

 

632

 

A+

 

Denver Colorado Airport System

 

583

 

A

 

Jefferson County Alabama Sewer

 

578

 

A

 

New York City Municipal Water Finance Authority

 

570

 

AA

 

Massachusetts State Go & Bay Transportation

 

552

 

AA-

 

Total top 10 public finance exposures

 

$

6,559

 

 

 

 

10 Largest U.S. Structured Finance Exposures

 

 

Net Par

 

 

 

Revenue Source

 

Outstanding(2)

 

Rating(1)

 

Structured Finance Corporate Pool

 

$

914

 

AAA

 

Synthetic CDO - IG Corporate

 

740

 

AAA

 

Sandelman Finance 2006-1 Limited

 

622

 

AA

 

Synthetic CDO - HY Corporate

 

620

 

AAA

 

Synthetic CDO - IG ABS

 

594

 

AAA

 

Countrywide Home Equity Loan Trust 2005-J Cl 2-A

 

567

 

BBB-

 

Countrywide Home Equity Loan Trust 2005-J Cl 1-A

 

560

 

BBB-

 

Field Point III & IV, Limited

 

550

 

AA-

 

Private - CLO

 

535

 

AAA

 

Synthetic CMBS transaction

 

500

 

AAA

 

Total top 10 structured finance exposures

 

$

6,202

 

 

 


1. Assured Guaranty internal rating. Our scale is comparable to that of the nationally recognized rating agencies.

2. Excludes net par in force for transactions insured by a AAA monoline financial guaranty company.

19




 

Assured Guaranty Ltd.
Largest Exposures by Sector (Part 2 of 2)
as of September 30, 2006
(dollars in millions)

10 Largest Healthcare Exposures

 

Net Par

 

 

 

 

 

Revenue Source

 

Outstanding(2)

 

Rating(1)

 

State

 

Ascension Health Credit Group

 

$

148

 

AA

 

MO

 

Texas Health Resources

 

147

 

A+

 

TX

 

Catholic Healthcare Partners

 

137

 

AA-

 

OH

 

Catholic Healthcare West

 

132

 

A-

 

CA

 

Sutter Health Obligated Group

 

117

 

AA-

 

CA

 

Medstar Health Inc.

 

109

 

BBB

 

MD

 

St. Barnabas Health Care System

 

106

 

BBB

 

NJ

 

Methodist Hospital

 

102

 

A+

 

TX

 

Adventist / Sunbelt Health System

 

100

 

A+

 

FL

 

Park Nicollet Health Services

 

95

 

BBB+

 

MN

 

Total top 10 healthcare exposures

 

$

1,192

 

 

 

 

 

 

10 Largest International Exposures

 

 

Net Par

 

 

 

Revenue Source

 

Outstanding(2)

 

Rating(1)

 

Private - Mortgage Backed Securities

 

$

1,445

 

AAA

 

Graphite Mortgages PLC Provide Graphite 2005-2

 

1,188

 

AAA

 

Epic II

 

1,026

 

AAA

 

Nemus Funding No.1 PLC

 

673

 

AAA

 

Stichting Profile Securitisation I

 

649

 

AAA

 

Synthetic CDO - IG ABS

 

605

 

AAA

 

Northumbrian Water PLC

 

584

 

BBB+

 

Ballantyne Re PLC Class A-2 Floating Rate Notes

 

500

 

A-

 

National Grid PLC

 

480

 

A

 

Private - CLO

 

446

 

AAA

 

Total top 10 international exposures

 

$

7,597

 

 

 


1. Assured Guaranty internal rating. Our scale is comparable to that of the nationally recognized rating agencies.

2. Excludes net par in force for transactions insured by a AAA monoline financial guaranty company.

20




 

Assured Guaranty Ltd.
Consolidated Capital and Claims Paying Resources
(dollars in millions)

 

 

As of September 30, 2006

 

As of December 31, 2005

 

 

 

AGC

 

AG Re(1)

 

Consolidated

 

AGC

 

AG Re(1)

 

Consolidated

 

Statutory surplus and reserves

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Unearned premium reserve(2)

 

$

260

 

$

417

 

$

677

 

$

234

 

$

356

 

$

590

 

Contingency reserve

 

626

 

 

626

 

559

 

 

559

 

Policyholders’ surplus

 

272

 

729

 

1,001

 

296

 

691

 

987

 

Loss & loss adjustment expense reserves(3)

 

17

 

22

 

39

 

21

 

26

 

47

 

Total policyholders’ surplus & reserves

 

$

1,175

 

$

1,168

 

$

2,343

 

$

1,110

 

$

1,073

 

$

2,182

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Claims paying resources

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Policyholders’ surplus

 

$

272

 

$

729

 

$

1,001

 

$

296

 

$

691

 

$

987

 

Contingency reserve

 

626

 

 

626

 

559

 

 

559

 

Qualified statutory capital

 

898

 

729

 

1,627

 

855

 

691

 

1,545

 

Unearned premium reserve(2)

 

260

 

417

 

677

 

234

 

356

 

590

 

Loss & loss adjustment expense reserves(3)

 

17

 

22

 

39

 

21

 

26

 

47

 

Total policyholders’ surplus & reserves

 

1,175

 

1,168

 

2,343

 

1,110

 

1,073

 

2,182

 

Present value of installment premium(d)

 

322

 

217

 

539

 

254

 

174

 

428

 

Standby line of credit/stop loss

 

455

 

 

455

 

455

 

 

455

 

Total claims paying resources

 

$

1,952

 

$

1,385

 

$

3,337

 

$

1,819

 

$

1,247

 

$

3,065

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Net par insured outstanding

 

$

62,285

 

$

59,294

 

$

121,579

 

$

52,659

 

$

49,806

 

$

102,465

 

Net debt service outstanding

 

$

79,436

 

$

87,946

 

$

167,382

 

$

70,769

 

$

74,925

 

$

145,694

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Ratios:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Net par insured to statutory capital

 

69:1

 

81:1

 

75:1

 

62:1

 

72:1

 

66:1

 

Capital ratio(4)

 

88:1

 

121:1

 

103:1

 

83:1

 

108:1

 

94:1

 

Financial resources ratio(5)

 

41:1

 

63:1

 

50:1

 

39:1

 

60:1

 

48:1

 


1. AG Re numbers are our estimate of U.S. statutory as the company files Bermuda statutory financial statements.

2. Unearned premium reserve for AG Re is U.S. GAAP based and net of prepaid reinsurance premiums.

3. Loss & loss adjustment reserves for AG Re is U.S. GAAP based and net of reinsurance recoverable and portfolio reserves.

4. Capital ratio is net par and interest insured divided by qualified statutory capital.

5. Financial resources ratio is calculated by dividing net par and interest insured by total claims paying resources.

Note: Please refer to endnotes for explanation of non-GAAP financial measures [net present value of estimated future installment premiums in force (d)].

21




 

Assured Guaranty Ltd.
Summary Financial and Statistical Data
(dollars in millions, except per share amounts)

 

 

 

 

Year Ended December 31,

 

 

 

9M 2006

 

2005

 

2004

 

2003

 

2002

 

2001

 

GAAP Summary Income Statement Data

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Gross premiums written

 

$

240.5

 

$

252.1

 

$

190.9

 

$

349.2

 

$

417.2

 

$

442.9

 

Net earned premiums

 

148.2

 

198.7

 

187.9

 

310.9

 

247.4

 

293.5

 

Net investment income

 

82.0

 

96.8

 

94.8

 

96.3

 

97.2

 

99.5

 

Total expenses

 

93.4

 

64.9

 

114.6

 

266.1

 

218.8

 

282.8

 

Income before provision for income taxes

 

139.0

 

229.6

 

233.3

 

246.2

 

83.2

 

110.1

 

Net income

 

117.3

 

188.4

 

182.8

 

214.5

 

72.6

 

63.8

 

Operating income

 

115.7

 

190.0

 

141.1

 

127.3

 

115.7

 

96.1

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Net income per diluted share

 

$

1.57

 

$

2.53

 

$

2.44

 

$

2.86

 

$

0.97

 

$

0.85

 

Operating income per diluted share

 

$

1.55

 

$

2.55

 

$

1.88

 

$

1.70

 

$

1.54

 

$

1.28

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Financial Ratios

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Loss and LAE ratio

 

(4.0

)%

(35.0

)%

(17.0

)%

46.5

%

48.6

%

60.5

%

Expense ratio

 

58.9

%

58.9

%

65.4

%

37.2

%

35.5

%

30.6

%

Combined ratio

 

54.9

%

23.9

%

48.4

%

83.7

%

84.1

%

91.1

%

GAAP Summary Balance Sheet Data (end of period)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Total investments and cash

 

$

2,395.1

 

$

2,256.0

 

$

2,157.9

 

$

2,222.1

 

$

2,061.9

 

$

1,710.8

 

Total assets

 

2,844.8

 

2,689.1

 

2,694.0

 

2,857.9

 

2,719.9

 

2,322.1

 

Unearned premium reserves

 

619.7

 

537.1

 

521.3

 

625.4

 

613.3

 

500.3

 

Loss and LAE reserves

 

116.9

 

121.2

 

226.5

 

522.6

 

458.8

 

401.1

 

Long-term debt

 

197.4

 

197.3

 

197.4

 

75.0

 

75.0

 

150.0

 

Shareholders’ equity

 

1,756.9

 

1,661.5

 

1,527.6

 

1,437.6

 

1,257.2

 

1,061.6

 

Book value per share

 

$

24.02

 

$

22.22

 

$

20.19

 

$

19.17

 

$

16.76

 

$

14.15

 

Other Financial Information

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Net debt service outstanding (end of period)

 

$

167,382

 

$

145,694

 

$

136,120

 

$

130,047

 

$

124,082

 

$

117,909

 

Net par outstanding (end of period)

 

121,579

 

102,465

 

95,592

 

87,524

 

80,394

 

75,249

 

Gross par outstanding (end of period)

 

122,533

 

105,258

 

98,221

 

90,366

 

83,067

 

79,883

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Consolidated qualified statutory capital

 

1,627

 

1,545

 

1,351

 

1,216

 

1,133

 

1,095

 

Consolidated policyholders’ surplus & reserves

 

2,343

 

2,182

 

1,990

 

2,238

 

1,931

 

1,664

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Ratios:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Par insured to statutory capital

 

75:1

 

66:1

 

71:1

 

72:1

 

71:1

 

69:1

 

Capital ratio(1)

 

103:1

 

94:1

 

101:1

 

107:1

 

110:1

 

108:1

 

Financial resources ratio(2)

 

50:1

 

48:1

 

51:1

 

45:1

 

41:1

 

52:1

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Debt service written:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

U.S. public finance

 

$

9,101

 

$

13,335

 

$

11,943

 

$

9,628

 

$

12,957

 

$

7,304

 

U.S. structured finance

 

22,065

 

16,724

 

15,131

 

9,718

 

12,495

 

11,893

 

International

 

12,175

 

5,729

 

3,897

 

3,822

 

2,069

 

2,125

 

Total debt service written

 

$

43,342

 

$

35,788

 

$

30,970

 

$

23,168

 

$

27,522

 

$

21,321

 


1. Capital ratio is net par and interest insured divided by qualified statutory capital.

2. Financial resources ratio is calculated by dividing net par and interest insured by total claims paying resources.

22




 

Endnotes related to non-GAAP financial measures discussed in the financial supplement:

(a) Present value of financial guaranty and mortgage guaranty gross written premiums or PVP, which is a non-GAAP financial measure, is defined as gross upfront and installment premiums received and the present value of gross estimated future installment premiums, on contracts written in the current period, discounted at 6% per year. We believe PVP is a useful measure for management, equity analysts and investors because it permits the evaluation of the value of new business production for Assured Guaranty by taking into account the value of estimated future installment premiums on new contracts underwritten in a reporting period, which GAAP gross premiums written does not adequately measure. Actual future net earned or written premiums may differ from PVP due to factors such as prepayments, amortizations, refundings, contract terminations or defaults that may or may not be influenced by market interest rates, refinancing or refunding activity, pre-payment speeds, policy changes or terminations, credit defaults, or other factors that management cannot control or predict. This measure should not be viewed as a substitute for gross written premiums determined in accordance with GAAP.

(b) Operating income, which is a non-GAAP financial measure, is defined as net income excluding after-tax realized gains (losses) on investments and after-tax unrealized gains (losses) on derivative financial instruments. We believe operating income is a useful measure for management, equity analysts and investors because the presentation of operating income enhances the understanding of our results of operations by highlighting the underlying profitability of our insurance business. We exclude net realized gains (losses) on investments and net unrealized gains (losses) on derivative financial instruments because the amount of these gains (losses) is heavily influenced by, and fluctuates in part according to, market interest rates, credit spreads and other factors that management cannot control or predict. This measure should not be viewed as a substitute for net income determined in accordance with GAAP.

(c) Adjusted book value, which is a non-GAAP financial measure, is defined as shareholders’ equity (book value) plus the after-tax value of the financial guaranty and mortgage guaranty unearned premium reserve net of prepaid reinsurance premiums and deferred acquisition costs plus the net present value of estimated future installment premiums in force, less future ceding commissions, after-tax, discounted at 6%. We believe adjusted book value is a useful measure for management, equity analysts and investors because the calculation of adjusted book value permits an evaluation of the net present value of the Company’s in-force premiums and capital base. The premiums described above will be earned in future periods, but may differ materially from the estimated amounts used in determining current adjusted book value due to changes in market interest rates, refinancing or refunding activity, pre-payment speeds, policy changes or terminations, credit defaults, and other factors that management cannot control or predict. This measure should not be viewed as a substitute for book value determined in accordance with GAAP.

(d) Net present value of estimated future installment premiums in force, which is a non-GAAP financial measure, is defined as the present value of estimated future financial guaranty and mortgage guaranty installment premiums from our in-force book of business, net of reinsurance and discounted at 6%. We believe net present value of estimated future installment premiums in force is a useful measure for management, equity analysts and investors because it permits an evaluation of the value of future estimated installment premiums. Estimated future premiums may change from period to period due to changes in par outstanding, maturity or other factors that management cannot control or predict that result from market interest rates, refinancing or refunding activity, pre-payment speeds, policy changes or terminations, credit defaults, or other factors. There is no comparable GAAP financial measure.

For adjusted book value, net present value of estimated future installment premiums in force and present value of financial guaranty and mortgage guaranty gross written premiums or PVP we use 6% as the present value discount rate because it is the approximate taxable equivalent yield on our investment portfolio for the periods presented.




 

Contacts:

 

 

 

Equity investors and media

 

Sabra Purtill

 

Managing Director, Investor Relations

 

(212) 408-6044

 

spurtill@assuredguaranty.com

 

 

 

Chris McNamee

 

Assistant Vice President, Investor Relations

 

(212) 261-5509

 

cmcnamee@assuredguaranty.com

 

 

 

Fixed income investors

 

Patrick Early

 

Director, Fixed Income Investor Relations

 

(212) 408 6043

 

pearly@assuredguaranty.com

Assured Guaranty Ltd.

 

30 Woodbourne Avenue

Michael Walker

Hamilton HM 08

Director, Fixed Income Investor Relations

Bermuda

(212) 261-5575

www.assuredguaranty.com

mwalker@assuredguaranty.com