FWP 1 dp16772_fwp-elvis.htm FORM FWP
 
 


                                              Free Writing Prospectus
                                              Filed pursuant to Rule 433
                                              Registration Statement No. 333-162195
                                              Dated: March 5, 2010

ELVIS(TM)

Equity Long Volatility Investment Strategy(TM)
February 28, 2010

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ELVIS
Hedging with Volatility

ELVIS(TM) is a hedging strategy for equity long-only and long-short portfolios

[]   The strategy aims to achieve two objectives:
     --   capture volatility spikes that often accompany market sell-offs
     --   reduce hedging carry-costs during bull markets or periods of calm

[]   Based on retrospective analysis, adding ELVIS to a long-only portfolio can
     enhance returns and lower volatility

[GRAPHIC OMITTED]

ELVIS Quick Facts

[]   Bloomberg: DBVELVIS Index
[]   Strategy seeks to address medium and long-term hedging needs (3 months+)
[]   Targets a consistent exposure to changes in volatility regardless of
     market levels
[]   Calculations based on listed option prices
[]   Convenient, transparent access to volatility investing

(1)See Appendix I for a table detailing the time periods, betas, returns and
volatilities used in and resulting from this analysis.
The inception date of ELVIS is December 9, 2009. All ELVIS returns prior to
that date have been simulated and do not reflect actual returns. Past
performance is not necessarily indicative of how ELVIS will perform in the
future. The performance of any investment product based on ELVIS would have
been lower than shown as a result of fees and/or costs.
Source: Deutsche Bank, Bloomberg, 2010
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ELVIS
Premise

A volatility -based hedge may offer certain advantages over traditional hedging
strategies...

                                     ELVIS
                                     -----

[]   Buying and selling implied volatility:
     []   Limited cost drag on performance over long term
     []   Aims to avoid over-paying for volatility

[]   Useful for a broad range of equity portfolios and strategies

[]   Consistent exposure to vol spikes -- hedge "tracks" risk over time

[]   Straightforward hedge set-up and analysis, similar to a long-short trade

                         Systematic Option-Based Hedge
                         -----------------------------

[]   Purchasing options, paying option premium:
     []   Significant cost drag on performance over long term
     []   Option buyers often over-pay for protection

[]   Relies on availability of optionable proxies

[]   Hedge effectiveness varies with time / market changes -- path dependency
     on option underlying

[]   Highly bespoke analysis to identify a hedging strategy

                       ... and some potential drawbacks

[]   DB only counterparty

[]   Hedge downside tied to declines in equity implied volatility, unknown at
     set-up time

[]   Implied volatility may not spike during market downturns, limiting hedge
     effectiveness

[]   Multiple counterparties, listed instruments available

[]   Hedge downside may be limited to up-front premium paid

[]   Not dependent on changes in implied volatility
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ELVIS
Index Construction

How ELVIS works

[]   The index is long exposure to future S & P 500 volatility

[]   The strategy is implemented via notional volatility derivatives (6-month
     variance swaps forward-starting in 3 months) which are rolled at each
     quarterly listed option expiry as they become spot (current-starting)
     variance swaps

[]   The strategy's performance during a given quarterly roll period depends on
     changes in S & P 500 implied volatility: an increase in implied volatility
     should lead to index gains; a decrease in implied volatility should lead
     to index losses

[]   The index re-calibrates notional every roll-date to target consistent
     volatility exposure: less exposure in a high-volatility environment; more
     exposure in a low-volatility environment

[]   Entry and exit variance swap levels are derived from S & P 500 listed option
     market prices using established market methodology for pricing variance
     swap

[]   Because the variance swap strike levels are based on mid-market option
     prices, they do not take into account the transaction costs (bid-offer
     spreads) that would be associated with trading variance swaps. To account
     for this, a cost equivalent to 1.5% of the 9 month spot variance swap
     strike level is deducted from the index over each roll period

Why forward-starting

[]   By rolling the position before the notional variance swaps start recording
     observations, ELVIS avoids exposure to S & P 500 volatility actually
     realized by the index

[]   Instead, ELVIS delivers exposure to changes in S & P 500 implied volatility

[]   By removing exposure to realized volatility, ELVIS aims to avoid paying a
     volatility "risk premium," which option sellers usually demand from option
     buyers. The volatility risk premium has manifested itself through a spread
     between implied volatility and volatility subsequently realized by the S & P
     500
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ELVIS
Index Construction

How ELVIS works, an illustration

[]   Upon the December listed option expiry, the index "buys" a forward
     variance swap which measures variance over a 6 month period starting 3
     months from December (March-September)

[]   Upon the March listed option expiry, the index "sells" the March-September
     variance swap it holds before it starts measuring realized variance and...

[]   ... "buys" a new forward variance swap measuring variance over a 6 month
     period starting 3 months from March (June-December)

[]   This process is repeated upon each quarterly option expiry

[GRAPHIC OMITTED]

How this impacts ELVIS

[]   The value of the forward variance swap upon initial execution is based on
     the market's expectation of S & P volatility in 3 months

[]   When unwound, the value of the variance swap (now spot starting) is based
     on the market's current expectation of S & P volatility

[]   The change in the market's expectation of volatility (implied volatility)
     over the roll period leads to a gain or loss on the notional variance swap
     position and an increase or decrease in the index

[]   During a roll period an increase in implied volatility will lead to an
     increase in the index

[]   During a roll period a decrease in implied volatility will lead to a
     decrease in the index
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ELVIS
Hedging Performance Stats

Rolling 6-month periods, retrospectively calculated (Jun 1990 -- Dec 2009)

Distribution of 6-Month Rolling Returns

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Distribution of Annualized Volatility

[GRAPHIC OMITTED]

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Return and Volatility figures are computed over rolling 6 month periods using
annualized daily log-returns and standard deviations. "SPX+ELVIS" represents a
hypothetical portfolio consisting of S & P 500 and ELVIS. For each 6 month
period, exposure to ELVIS was set equal to the inverse of the beta from a
regression analysis of daily returns (S & P 500 versus ELVIS) over the trailing 6
months.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------


The inception date of ELVIS is December 9, 2009. All ELVIS returns prior to
that date have been simulated and do not reflect actual returns. Past
performance is not necessarily indicative of how ELVIS will perform in the
future. The performance of any investment product based on ELVIS would have
been lower than shown as a result of fees and/or costs.
Source: Deutsche Bank, Bloomberg, 2010
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Risk Factors

DEUTSCHE BANK AG, LONDON BRANCH, AS THE SPONSOR OF ELVIS, MAY ADJUST THE INDEX
IN A WAY THAT AFFECTS ITS LEVEL AND MAY HAVE CONFLICTS OF INTEREST -- Deutsche
Bank AG, London Branch is the sponsor of ELVIS (the "Index Sponsor") and will
determine whether there has been a market disruption event with respect to
ELVIS. In the event of any such market disruption event, the Index Sponsor may
use an alternate method to calculate the closing level of ELVIS. The Index
Sponsor carries out calculations necessary to promulgate ELVIS and maintains
some discretion as to how such calculations are made. In particular, the Index
Sponsor has discretion in selecting among methods of how to calculate ELVIS in
the event the regular means of determining ELVIS are unavailable at the time a
determination is scheduled to take place. There can be no assurance that any
determination made by the Index Sponsor in these various capacities will not
affect the level of ELVIS. Any of these actions could adversely affect the
value of securities or options linked to ELVIS. The Index Sponsor has no
obligation to consider the interests of holders of securities linked to ELVIS
in calculating or revising ELVIS.

Furthermore, Deutsche Bank AG, London Branch or one or more of its affiliates
may have published, and may in the future publish, research reports on ELVIS or
investment strategies reflected by ELVIS (or any transaction, product or
security related to ELVIS or any components thereof) . This research is
modified from time to time without notice and may express opinions or provide
recommendations that are inconsistent with purchasing or holding of
transactions, products or securities related to ELVIS. Any of these activities
may affect ELVIS or transactions, products or securities related to ELVIS.
Investors should make their own independent investigation of the merits of
investing in contracts or products related to ELVIS.

ELVIS HAS VERY LIMITED PERFORMANCE HISTORY -- Calculation of ELVIS began on
December 9, 2009. Therefore, ELVIS has very limited performance history and no
actual investment which allowed tracking of the performance of ELVIS was
possible before that date.
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Appendix I
Elvis Overlay Data

                          ELVIS Overlay         S & P 500
        ELVIS Overlay          S & P 500

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Start Date End Date Beta  Return Volatility Return Volatility Start Date End Date Beta  Return  Volatility Return  Volatility
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
9/16/1990 3/15/1991 -0.39  18.7%    17.2%    17.6%    17.6%   9/16/2000 3/15/2001 -0.96 -15.3%    17.8%    -18.8%     23.2%
3/16/1991 9/15/1991 -0.22   3.6%    12.6%     3.1%    13.5%   3/16/2001 9/15/2001 -1.15   3.3%    17.6%     -5.0%     20.3%
9/16/1991 3/15/1992 -0.50   3.8%    11.6%     5.2%    12.8%   9/16/2001 3/15/2002 -1.03  17.3%    16.3%     12.3%     18.8%
3/16/1992 9/15/1992 -0.68  -2.3%     8.7%     3.3%    10.2%   3/16/2002 9/15/2002 -0.75  -7.2%    22.3%    -23.7%     27.9%
9/16/1992 3/15/1993 -0.78   0.9%    10.6%     7.5%     9.9%   9/16/2002 3/15/2003 -1.09  -2.5%    18.0%     -6.5%     25.8%
3/16/1993 9/15/1993 -0.31   0.4%     8.5%     2.3%     8.9%   3/16/2003 9/15/2003 -1.60   6.4%    13.1%     17.6%     16.3%
9/16/1993 3/15/1994 -0.29   1.4%     8.1%     1.6%     8.0%   9/16/2003 3/15/2004 -1.37   1.9%    11.8%      7.3%     11.9%
3/16/1994 9/15/1994 -0.12  -0.3%     9.2%     1.1%     9.3%   3/16/2004 9/15/2004 -0.64  -6.3%     7.5%      0.9%     11.3%
9/16/1994 3/15/1995 -0.21   3.0%     9.4%     4.4%     9.5%   9/16/2004 3/15/2005 -0.76  -3.5%     7.3%      6.6%     10.3%
3/16/1995 9/15/1995 -0.11  16.6%     7.5%    17.8%     8.2%   3/16/2005 9/15/2005 -0.91  -2.9%     7.9%      3.3%     10.2%
9/16/1995 3/15/1996 -0.46  10.4%     9.7%    10.1%    11.1%   9/16/2005 3/15/2006 -0.57  -1.2%     5.8%      5.3%     10.1%
3/16/1996 9/15/1996 -0.39   4.7%     9.4%     4.3%    11.8%   3/16/2006 9/15/2006 -0.86   1.5%    11.8%      1.1%     11.3%
9/16/1996 3/15/1997 -0.81  25.4%     9.7%    16.0%    11.9%   9/16/2006 3/15/2007 -0.44   4.8%     5.6%      5.4%      9.7%
3/16/1997 9/15/1997 -0.62  20.3%    14.4%    15.6%    16.8%   3/16/2007 9/15/2007 -0.44  16.3%     9.3%      7.0%     15.3%
9/16/1997 3/15/1998 -0.84  15.6%    15.3%    13.0%    20.1%   9/16/2007 3/15/2008 -0.53  -9.5%    12.2%    -12.8%     21.0%
3/16/1998 9/15/1998 -0.94  23.9%    20.3%    -3.9%    21.5%   3/16/2008 9/15/2008 -0.72 -10.2%    15.2%     -6.6%     22.1%
9/16/1998 3/15/1999 -0.50  25.2%    18.8%    25.0%    21.2%   9/16/2008 3/15/2009 -1.21  13.6%    49.6%    -37.7%     58.4%
3/16/1999 9/15/1999 -0.59   4.9%    15.4%     0.9%    17.8%   3/16/2009 9/15/2009 -0.88  28.2%    20.7%     39.6%     25.9%
9/16/1999 3/15/2000 -0.63  -1.1%    17.1%     5.6%    20.4%   9/16/2009 2/28/2010 -1.71 -13.8%    10.5%      4.9%     16.4%
3/16/2000 9/15/2000 -1.49 -11.8%    18.8%     0.5%    20.2%
                                                              --------------------------------------------------------------
                                                              9/16/1990 2/28/2010   N/A 406.7%    15.5%    247.6%     18.8%
                                                              --------------------------------------------------------------

"ELVIS Overlay" represents a hypothetical portfolio consisting of S & P 500 and
ELVIS, rebalanced semi-annually. Upon each rebalancing, exposure to S & P 500 was
set to 1 and exposure to ELVIS was set equal to the inverse of the beta from a
regression analysis of daily returns (S & P 500 versus ELVIS) over the trailing 6
months -- "Beta" above. For each time period above, "Return" is total return
over the time period; "Volatility" is annualized volatility of daily returns
over the time period.

Source: Deutsche Bank, Bloomberg, 2010
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Appendix II
Index Description

The Deutsche Bank Equity Long Volatility Investment Strategy ("ELVIS" and the
"Index") tracks the performance of a long position in a 3-month ("3M") forward
6-month ("6M") variance swap on the S & P 500 Index. The Index was created by
Deutsche Bank AG, the Index Sponsor, on December 9, 2009 and is calculated,
maintained and published by the Index Sponsor. The closing level of ELVIS was
set to 100 on March 16, 1990 (the "Index Base Date"). ELVIS is denominated in
U.S. dollars.

Investment Strategy and Index Construction

Investment Strategy

ELVIS is a strategy that aims to capture and monetize the movements of equity
market implied volatility through a long position in 3M-forward 6M variance
swaps on the S & P 500 Index. A forward variance swap obligates its holder to
enter into a spot (or current starting) variance swap at a later date at a
pre-specified variance swap strike price. A 3M-forward 6M variance swap is a
variance swap starting in 3 months and lasting for 6 months. Forward variance
swaps are used to take a view on future movements of implied volatility. When
sold or unwound prior to the variance swap start date, the gain or loss on the
forward variance swap will only relate to changes in implied volatility and not
to any realized volatility of the underlying, which would otherwise be measured
during the life of the variance swap.

Volatility is a statistical measure of the amount of movement of the price of
an asset over a period of time and is the market standard for expressing the
riskiness of an asset. Volatility is generally calculated based on the natural
log return of an asset between each observation. Implied volatility is a market
estimate of the volatility an asset will realize over a future period of time.
Implied volatility is determined from the market prices of listed options on
the asset.

Variance is the square of volatility and is used in certain products in the
over-the-counter (OTC) derivatives market in place of volatility due to
mathematical properties that make it more convenient for financial institutions
to value and hedge those products. ELVIS primarily uses variance in its
calculations for this reason, but uses and refers to volatility as a standard
reference measure consistent with market practice.

(Continued on next page)
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Appendix II
Index Description

Index Construction

ELVIS tracks the performance of a notional investment in 3M-forward 6M variance
swaps on the S & P 500 Index. Since variance is additive in time (i.e. a 6-month
variance swap is equivalent to two consecutive 3-month variance swaps), the
3M-forward 6M variance swap strike is calculated as the time-weighted
difference between the strikes of the 9-month ("9M") and 3M variance swaps. The
3M-forward 6M variance swap can therefore be replicated by a portfolio holding
a roughly 1/2 short position in 3M spot variance swap and a roughly 3/2 long
position in 9M spot variance swap. The expiry dates of the 3M and 9M spot
variance swaps in the replicating portfolio are the same as the 3M-forward 6M
variance swap start date and end date, respectively.

The variance swap strikes for the 3M and 9M spot variance swaps are calculated
from mid-market prices of all available S & P 500[R] listed out-of-the-money
options with both bid and ask prices greater than $0.20 with the same expiry.
Because the variance swap strike levels are based on mid-market prices, they do
not take into account transaction costs (bid-offer spreads) that would be
associated with trading variance swaps. To account for this, the strike of the
prevailing 9M spot variance swap in the replicating portfolio is raised to
101.5% of the fair level. This implies an increase on the 3M-forward 6M
variance swap strike, which will be deducted from the index level as a running
cost over the period to the next rebalancing day.

The Index rebalances on March, June, September and December option expiry days,
i.e. the 3rd Friday of the relevant month if it is a business day, otherwise
the previous business day. On each rebalancing day, the forward variance swap
becomes a spot variance swap. However, the now-6M spot variance swap is unwound
and a new 3M-forward 6M variance swap is entered into. The swap start date of
the new contract is the 3rd Friday of the 3rd month after the rebalancing date.
The swap end date of the new contract is the 3rd Friday of the 9th month after
the rebalancing date. If either of these two Fridays is a holiday, the previous
business day is used instead.

On each rebalancing day, the forward variance swap notional is calculated so
that it is proportional to the prevailing index level and inversely
proportional to the prevailing 3M-forward 6M variance swap level.

On each index calculation day, the change in the index level is calculated as
the difference between the prevailing forward variance swap level and the
strike variance level set on the previous rebalancing day, reduced by the daily
running cost described above.

ELVIS index calculates on all weekdays that are not US equity market holidays.
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Important Notes

The distribution of this document and the availability of some of the products
and services referred to herein may be restricted by law in certain
jurisdictions. Some products and services referred to herein are not eligible
for sale in all countries and in any event may only be sold to qualified
investors. Deutsche Bank will not offer or sell any products or services to any
persons prohibited by the law in their country of origin or in any other
relevant country from engaging in any such transactions.

Prospective investors should understand and discuss with their professional
tax, legal, accounting and other advisors the effect of entering into or
purchasing any transaction, product or security related to ELVIS (each, a
"Structured Product") . Before investing in any Structured Product you should
take steps to ensure that you understand and have assessed with your financial
advisor, or made an independent assessment of, the appropriateness of the
transaction in the light of your own objectives and circumstances, including
the possible risks and benefits of investing in such Structured Product.

Structured Products are not suitable for all investors due to illiquidity,
optionality, time to redemption, and payoff nature of the strategy.

Deutsche Bank or persons associated with Deutsche Bank and their affiliates
may: maintain a long or short position in securities referenced herein or in
related futures or options; purchase, sell or maintain inventory; engage in any
other transaction involving such securities; and earn brokerage or other
compensation.

Any payout information, scenario analysis, and hypothetical calculations should
in no case be construed as an indication of expected payout on an actual
investment and/or expected behavior of an actual Structured Product.

Calculations of returns on Structured Products may be linked to a referenced
index or interest rate. As such, the Structured Products may not be suitable
for persons unfamiliar with such index or interest rate, or unwilling or unable
to bear the risks associated with the transaction. Structured Product
denominated in a currency, other than the investor's home currency, will be
subject to changes in exchange rates, which may have an adverse effect on the
value, price or income return of the products. These Structured Product may not
be readily realizable investments and are not traded on any regulated market.
Structured Products involve risk, which may include interest rate, index,
currency, credit, political, liquidity, time value, commodity and market risk
and are not suitable for all investors.

The past performance of an index, securities or other instruments does not
guarantee or predict future performance. The distribution of this document and
availability of these products and services in certain jurisdictions may be
restricted by law.

Deutsche Bank does not provide accounting, tax or legal advice.

BEFORE ENTERING INTO ANY TRANSACTION YOU SHOULD TAKE STEPS TO ENSURE THAT YOU
UNDERSTAND AND HAVE MADE AN INDEPENDENT ASSESSMENT OF THE APPROPRIATENESS OF
THE STRUCTURED PRODUCT IN LIGHT OF YOUR OWN OBJECTIVES AND CIRCUMSTANCES,
INCLUDING THE POSSIBLE RISKS AND BENEFITS OF ENTERING INTO SUCH STRUCTURED
PRODUCT. YOU SHOULD ALSO CONSIDER MAKING SUCH INDEPENDENT INVESTIGATIONS AS YOU
CONSIDER NECESSARY OR APPROPRIATE FOR SUCH PURPOSE.

"Deutsche Bank" means Deutsche Bank AG and its affiliated companies, as the
context requires. Deutsche Bank Private Wealth Management refers to Deutsche
Bank's wealth management activities for high-net-worth clients around the
world. Deutsche Bank Alex Brown is a division of Deutsche Bank Securities Inc.

Backtested, hypothetical or simulated performance results presented herein have
inherent limitations. Unlike a performance record based on trading actual
client portfolios, simulated results are achieved by means of the retroactive
application of a backtested model designed with the benefit of hindsight.
Taking into account historical events the backtesting of performance also
differs from actual account performance because an actual investment strategy
may be adjusted any time, for any reason, including a response to material,
economic or market factors. The backtested performance includes hypothetical
results that do not reflect the reinvestment of dividends and other earnings or
the deduction of advisory fees, brokerage or other commissions, and any other
expenses that a client would have paid or actually paid. No representation is
made that any trading strategy or account will or is likely to achieve profits
or losses similar to those shown. Alternative modeling techniques or
assumptions might produce significantly different results and prove to be more
appropriate. Past hypothetical backtest results are neither an indicator nor a
guarantee of future returns. Actual results will vary, perhaps materially, from
the analysis.

Structured Products linked to ELVIS discussed herein are not insured or
guaranteed by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) or any other
governmental agency. These Structured Products are not insured by any statutory
scheme or governmental agency of the United Kingdom.

These Structured Products typically involve a high degree of risk, are not
readily transferable and typically will not be listed or traded on any exchange
and are intended for sale only to investors who are capable of understanding
and assuming the risks involved. The market value of any Structured Product may
be affected by changes in economic, financial and political factors (including,
but not limited to, spot and forward interest and exchange rates), time to
maturity, market conditions and volatility and the equity prices and credit
quality of any issuer or reference issuer.

Additional information may be available upon request. Any results shown do not
reflect the impact of commission and/or fees, unless stated.
                                                                             10
 
 

 
 


Important Notes

Deutsche Bank AG has filed a registration statement (including a prospectus)
with the SEC for the offerings to which this communication relates. Before you
invest, you should read the prospectus in that registration statement and other
documents the issuer has filed with the SEC for more complete information about
the issuer and this offering. You may get these documents for free by visiting
EDGAR on the SEC Web site at www.sec.gov. Alternatively, the issuer, any
underwriter or any dealer participating in the offering will arrange to send
you the prospectus if you request it by calling toll-free 1-800-311-4409.

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Any Structured Products are not sponsored, endorsed, sold or promoted by
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