FWP 1 dp16170_fwp-carbon.htm FORM FWP
 
 



Free Writing Prospectus
Filed Pursuant to Rule 433
Registration Statement No. 333-162195
Dated January 12, 2010

Bloomberg Ticker: SPGRCUUT
Reuters Ticker: .SPGRCUUT

S&P U.S. Carbon Efficient Index
Benchmark Performance With Lower Carbon Emissions

December 31, 2009

The S&P U.S. Carbon Efficient Index was launched on March 9, 2009. Accordingly,
the Index performance from September 17, 2004 to March 6, 2009 shown in this
presentation does not reflect the performance of the actual Index, but has been
back-calculated on a retrospective basis by Standard & Poor's. The Index did
not exist during the period of retrospective calculation, and past performance
is not indicative of how the Index will perform in the future.


 

 
 


Carbon Emissions
Growing Impact Everywhere

 It is widely believed that CO2 emissions are causing global warming and
climate change with far reaching negative impact to the planet  Potential
Effects on Environment:

-- Substantial temperature increase and sea-level rise by end of century

-- Glacial retreat: Glacier National Park had 27 glaciers in 2007 versus 150 in
1910 and it is speculated that Himalayan glaciers could disappear by mid
century

-- Rising levels of CO2 in oceans will harm aquatic life and ecosystems; many
species are threatened due to rising sea temperatures

-- Severe storms and weather patterns causing destruction of property and
crops

 Potential Effect on Humanity:

-- Millions of homes around the world may be flooded by rising sea levels

-- Underdeveloped nations may face armed conflict and riots over shortages of
resources and food

Carbon Dioxide & Greenhouse Gases

Global Warming and Climate Change

Severe Environmental, Economic & Social Damages

Sources: Wikipedia, National Geographic Magazine, The Telegraph

                                    page 1

 

 
 


Low Carbon Indices Have Been Unsuccessful Thus Far

 Existing Carbon Indices have underperformed their equity benchmarks

-- There has been negative alpha in most long-only Carbon Indices

-- Some European Low Carbon Indices have underperformed by more than 20% since
2004

-- Investors have been unwilling to forgo performance in order to be "green"

 Carbon Index "Trackers" have recently been introduced in Europe

-- These indices include all benchmark companies -- overweight Low Carbon
companies and underweight high carbon companies

-- Resulting performance is in line with benchmark but only marginally lower
carbon footprint

 How can market performance be delivered with a meaningfully lower Carbon
Footprint?

                                    page 2

 

 
 


S&P U.S. Carbon Efficient Index
Market Performance with a Carbon Efficient Perspective

 S&P U.S. Carbon Efficient Index aims to closely track S&P 500 performance with
a lower Carbon Footprint and Greenhouse Gas emissions

 A "Green" alternative/complement to the S&P 500 benchmark

-- Very high correlation to S&P 500 (0.99)

-- Historically close tracking to S&P 500 performance since 2004 (1.1%
annualized tracking error)

-- 45% lower Carbon Footprint (higher energy efficiency) compared to S&P 500

-- 60% lower Greenhouse Gas emissions (total emissions tonnage per year)

 S&P U.S. Carbon Efficient Index was developed in collaboration with Deutsche
Bank and Trucost, the market leader in company Carbon Footprint analysis.

                                    page 3

 

 
 


S&P U.S. Carbon Efficient Index
Executive Summary

 An index of up to 375 of the lowest Carbon Footprint companies from the S&P
500

-- Carbon Footprint measured by Trucost PLC, an industry leader in providing
detailed Carbon Footprint analysis worldwide
-- The Index excludes "worst" polluters from the S&P 500 (reduces overall
Carbon Footprint)
-- No more than 50% of an S&P GIC Sector can be excluded (1) (minimize tracking
error)

 Index constituents are re-optimized quarterly to track the S&P 500

-- Northfield Optimizer used to create the optimal number of constituents and
their weights within the Carbon Index
-- Optimizer is completely quantitative and contains no discretion or
subjectivity

 Owned and calculated by Standard & Poor's, developed in collaboration with
Deutsche Bank.

 Deutsche Bank has been granted a period of worldwide exclusivity on Structured
Products and ETFs on the Index

(1)During the exclusion process, a company can be eligible for the Carbon Index
if the current total excluded percentage of a sector is below 50% and the
company's incremental S&P weight causes the excluded percentage of its sector
to exceed 50% but not 55%.

                                    page 4

 

 
 


S&P U.S. Carbon Efficient Index Methodology
A quarterly process maintained by Standard & Poor's

Step I Rank S&P 500 Constituents by Trucost Carbon Footprint

S&P 500 Constituents from Standard & Poor's

Carbon Footprint from Trucost PLC

Step II Exclude 100 Companies with highest Carbon Footprint

Do not exclude more than 50% of a Sector by Market Capitalization 1

Step III Optimize Remaining 400 Companies to Track S&P 500 Index Using No More
Than 375 Constituents

S&P U.S. Carbon Efficient Index

Ongoing Step
Adjust Index for Deletions from the S&P 500 Index

(1)During the exclusion process, a company can be eligible for the Carbon Index
if the current total excluded percentage of a sector is below 50% and the
company's incremental S&P weight causes the excluded percentage of its sector
to exceed 50% but not 55%.

                                    page 5

 

 
 


Carbon Reduction Analysis
Annual Carbon Footprint Comparison (GHG Emissions / Annual Revenues)

[GRAPHIC]

Source: Standard & Poor's, Trucost PLC

                                    page 6

 

 
 


Carbon Reduction Analysis
Annual Total Carbon Emissions (Total GHG Emissions Tonnage)

[GRAPHIC]

Source: Standard & Poor's, Trucost PLC

                                    page 7

 

 
 


S&P U.S. Carbon Efficient Index
Historical and retrospective index levels vs. S&P 500 TR Index

[GRAPHIC]

S&P U.S. Carbon Efficient Index has been retrospectively calculated and did not
exist prior to March 9, 2009. Accordingly, the results shown during the
retrospective periods are hypothetical and do no reflect actual returns. Past
performance is not necessarily indicative of how the Index will perform in the
future. The performance of any investment product based on the Index would have
been lower than the Index as a result of fees and/or costs.

Source: Standard & Poor's, Bloomberg

                                    page 8

 

 
 


S&P U.S. Carbon Efficient Index
Historical and retrospective annual returns vs. S&P 500 TR Index

[GRAPHIC]

S&P U.S. Carbon Efficient Index has been retrospectively calculated and did not
exist prior to March 9, 2009. Accordingly, the results shown during the
retrospective periods are hypothetical and do no reflect actual returns. Past
performance is not necessarily indicative of how the Index will perform in the
future. The performance of any investment product based on the Index would have
been lower than the Index as a result of fees and/or costs.

2004 return is from Index Inception Date of September 17, 2004; Annualized
return is over entire period from September 17, 2004

Source: Standard & Poor's, Bloomberg

                                    page 9

 

 
 


S&P U.S. Carbon Efficient Index
Historical and retrospective annual tracking error vs. S&P 500 TR Index

[GRAPHIC]

S&P U.S. Carbon Efficient Index has been retrospectively calculated and did not
exist prior to March 9, 2009. Accordingly, the results shown during the
retrospective periods are hypothetical and do no reflect actual returns. Past
performance is not necessarily indicative of how the Index will perform in the
future. The performance of any investment product based on the Index would have
been lower than the Index as a result of fees and/or costs.

2004 tracking error is from Index Inception Date of September 17, 2004;
Annualized tracking error is over entire period from September 17, 2004

Source: Standard & Poor's, Bloomberg

                                    page 10

 

 
 


S&P U.S. Carbon Efficient Index
Performance Summary

S&P U.S. Carbon Efficient Index -- Retrospective Index Levels
[GRAPHIC]

Retrospective Annual Performance vs. Actual S&P 500 Returns
[GRAPHIC]

S&P U.S. Carbon Efficient Index -- Summary Analytics
[GRAPHIC]

S&P U.S. Carbon S&P 500 Total Efficient TR Index Return Index
[GRAPHIC]

Returns 1 Month 2.5% 1.9%
        3 Month 6.1% 6.0%
            YTD 26.7% 26.5%
Annualized Returns  1 Year 26.7% 26.5%
                    3 Years -6.0% -5.6%
                    Since Inception* 1.7% 1.9%
Annualized Volatility Since Inception* 23.6% 23.5%
Sharpe Ratio Since Inception* N/A N/A
Correlation: S&P 500 Since Inception* 0.9989 1.00 Tracking Error vs S&P 500
Since Inception* 1.1% -

Volatility Analysis September 17, 2004 -- December 31, 2009

[GRAPHIC]

S&P U.S. Carbon Efficient Index has been retrospectively calculated and did not
exist prior to March 9, 2009. Accordingly, the results shown during the
retrospective periods are hypothetical and do no reflect actual returns. Past
performance is not necessarily indicative of how the Index will perform in the
future. The performance of any investment product based on the Index would have
been lower than the Index as a result of fees and/or costs.

*Inception date for the Index was September 17, 2004 Source: Standard & Poor's,
Bloomberg

                                    page 11

 

 
 


S&P U.S. Carbon Efficient Index
Monthly Comparisons

S&P U.S. Carbon Efficient Index -- Simulated Monthly Performance


       2004   2005   2006   2007   2008    2009
Jan           -2.17% 2.14%  1.25%  -6.22%  -8.17%
Feb           1.53%  0.28%  -1.98% -2.73%  -10.74%
Mar           -1.49% 1.32%  1.01%  -0.45%  9.13%
Apr           -1.82% 0.90%  4.29%  4.63%   10.06%
May           3.19%  -2.77% 3.37%  1.94%   5.01%
Jun           0.26%  0.17%  -1.66% -8.25%  0.06%
Jul           3.79%  0.86%  -3.10% -0.44%  7.33%
Aug           -0.92% 2.72%  1.58%  1.46%   3.77%
Sep    -1.15% 0.40%  2.64%  3.52%  -9.08%  3.61%
Oct    1.20%  -1.47% 3.16%  1.70%  -17.45% -2.03%
Nov    3.84%  4.00%  2.03%  -4.54% -7.68%  5.67%
Dec    3.22%  0.12%  1.89%  -0.79% 1.06%   2.52%
Annual 7.22%  5.28%  16.32% 4.31%  -37.15% 26.70%


S&P U.S. Carbon Efficient Index --Monthly Excess Return vs. S&P 500


       2004   2005   2006   2007   2008   2009
Jan           0.26%  -0.50% -0.26% -0.22% 0.26%
Feb           -0.57% 0.01%  -0.02% 0.52%  -0.09%
Mar           0.28%  0.08%  -0.11% -0.02% 0.37%
Apr           0.08%  -0.45% -0.14% -0.24% 0.49%
May           0.01%  0.11%  -0.12% 0.65%  -0.58%
Jun           0.12%  0.04%  0.01%  0.18%  -0.14%
Jul           0.07%  0.24%  0.00%  0.40%  -0.23%
Aug           -0.01% 0.34%  0.08%  0.01%  0.16%
Sep    0.04%  -0.41% 0.06%  -0.22% -0.17% -0.12%
Oct    -0.32% 0.19%  -0.10% 0.11%  -0.66% -0.18%
Nov    -0.21% 0.22%  0.13%  -0.36% -0.51% -0.33%
Dec    -0.19% 0.08%  0.49%  -0.10% -0.01% 0.59%
Annual -0.72% 0.37%  0.52%  -1.18% -0.15% 0.23%


S&P 500 -- Actual Monthly Performance


       2004   2005   2006   2007   2008    2009
Jan           -2.44% 2.65%  1.51%  -6.00%  -8.43%
Feb           2.10%  0.27%  -1.96% -3.25%  -10.65%
Mar           -1.77% 1.24%  1.12%  -0.43%  8.76%
Apr           -1.90% 1.34%  4.43%  4.87%   9.57%
May           3.18%  -2.88% 3.49%  1.30%   5.59%
Jun           0.14%  0.14%  -1.66% -8.43%  0.20%
Jul           3.72%  0.62%  -3.10% -0.84%  7.56%
Aug           -0.91% 2.38%  1.50%  1.45%   3.61%
Sep    -1.19% 0.81%  2.58%  3.74%  -8.91%  3.73%
Oct    1.53%  -1.67% 3.26%  1.59%  -16.79% -1.86%
Nov    4.05%  3.78%  1.90%  -4.18% -7.18%  6.00%
Dec    3.40%  0.03%  1.40%  -0.69% 1.06%   1.93%
Annual 7.94%  4.91%  15.79% 5.49%  -37.00% 26.46%


S&P U.S. Carbon Efficient Index Monthly Annualized Tracking Error


       2004  2005  2006  2007  2008  2009
Jan          0.83% 1.10% 0.64% 1.44% 1.43%
Feb          0.80% 0.76% 0.48% 1.39% 1.55%
Mar          0.80% 0.73% 0.73% 1.22% 1.44%
Apr          1.04% 1.19% 0.53% 1.33% 1.35%
May          0.66% 1.08% 0.68% 1.13% 1.24%
Jun          0.71% 0.78% 0.64% 1.01% 1.14%
Jul          0.69% 0.99% 1.32% 2.02% 1.12%
Aug          0.65% 0.62% 1.21% 0.75% 0.96%
Sep          0.77% 0.80% 0.67% 1.83% 0.79%
Oct    0.59% 0.82% 0.62% 1.23% 2.95% 0.68%
Nov    0.70% 0.48% 0.58% 1.25% 2.02% 0.55%
Dec    0.53% 0.60% 0.85% 0.76% 1.87% 0.68%
Annual 0.65% 0.76% 0.86% 0.89% 1.68% 1.12%


S&P U.S. Carbon Efficient Index has been retrospectively calculated and did not
exist prior to March 9, 2009. Accordingly, the results shown during the
retrospective periods are hypothetical and do no reflect actual returns. Past
performance is not necessarily indicative of how the Index will perform in the
future. The performance of any investment product based on the Index would have
been lower than the Index as a result of fees and/or costs.

September results shown are from Index Inception Date of September 17, 2004
Source: Standard & Poor's, Bloomberg

                                    page 12

 

 
 


Contacts

 Global Markets Structuring - Americas

Michael Nadel -- T. +1 212 250 8866

 Structured Equity Sales - US

T. +1 212 250 9905

                                    page 13

 

 
 


Disclaimer

This document is intended for discussion purposes only and does not create any
legally binding obligations on the part of Deutsche Bank AG and/or its
affiliates ("DB"). When making an investment decision, you should rely solely
on the final documentation relating to the transaction and not the summary
contained herein. DB is not acting as your financial adviser or in any other
fiduciary capacity with respect to this proposed transaction. The transactions
or products mentioned herein may not be appropriate for all investors and
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Assumptions, estimates and opinions contained in this document constitute our
judgment as of the date of the document and are subject to change without
notice. Any projections are based on a number of assumptions as to market
conditions and there can be no guarantee that any projected results will be
achieved. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. This material
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Poor's does not make any representation or warranty, express or implied, to the
owners of the Products or any member of the public regarding the advisability
of investing in securities generally or in the Products particularly or the
ability of the S&P Indices to track general stock market performance. S&P's
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determination of the timing of, prices at, or quantities of the Products to be
issued or in the determination or calculation of the equation by which the
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connection with the administration, marketing or trading of the Products.

S&P DOES NOT GUARANTEE THE ACCURACY AND/OR THE COMPLETENESS OF THE S&P INDICES
OR ANY DATA INCLUDED THEREIN AND S&P SHALL HAVE NO LIABILITY FOR ANY ERRORS,
OMISSIONS, OR INTERRUPTIONS THEREIN.  S&P MAKES NO WARRANTY, EXPRESS OR
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ANY OF THE FOREGOING, IN NO EVENT SHALL S&P HAVE ANY LIABILITY FOR ANY SPECIAL,
PUNITIVE, INDIRECT, OR CONSEQUENTIAL DAMAGES (INCLUDING LOST PROFITS), EVEN IF
NOTIFIED OF THE POSSIBILITY OF SUCH DAMAGES.

                                    page 14

 

 
 


Important Information

Deutsche Bank AG has filed a registration statement (including a prospectus)
with the Securities and Exchange Commission, or SEC, for offerings to which
this communication relates. Before you invest, you should read the prospectus
in that registration statement and the other documents relating to such
offering that Deutsche Bank AG has filed with the SEC for more complete
information about Deutsche Bank AG and the offering. You may obtain these
documents without cost by visiting EDGAR on the SEC website at www.sec.gov.
Alternatively, Deutsche Bank AG, any agent or any dealer participating in the
offering will arrange to send you the prospectus if you so request by calling
toll-free 1-800-311-4409.

Risk Factors
LIMITED HISTORY OF THE INDEX -- Publication of the Index began on March 9,
2009. Therefore, the Index has very limited performance history, and no actual
investments which allowed a tracking of the performance of the Index was
possible before that date.

STANDARD & POOR'S, AS THE SPONSOR OF THE INDEX, MAY ADJUST THE INDEX IN A WAY
THAT AFFECTS ITS LEVEL --Standard & Poor's, as the sponsor of the Index, is
responsible for calculating and maintaining the Index. The sponsor can make
methodological changes that could affect the level of the Index. You should
realize that any changes in the components of the Index, as well as changes in
the components of the S&P 500 Index, may affect the Index, as any newly added
component stock may perform significantly better or worse than the component
stock it replaces.

INDEX STRATEGY RISK -- The Index seeks to closely track the S&P 500 Index
performance with a basket of stocks having a lower carbon footprint and
greenhouse gas emissions. AN INVESTMENT LINKED OR RELATED TO THE INDEX IS NOT
THE SAME AS AN INVESTMENT IN THE S&P 500 INDEX OR IN ANY OF ITS UNDERLYING
COMPONENTS. The Index may not successfully track the market performance of the
S&P 500 Index.

                                    page 15