FWP 1 dp15156_fwp-tr.htm FORM FWP
Issuer Free Writing Prospectus
Filed pursuant to Rule 433
Registration No. 333-162195
Dated: October 7, 2009
 

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Liquid Alpha USD 5 Total Return Index
DBLAUT5J

o    In September, Liquid Alpha USD 5 TR returned 0.27%. The return is 9.21%
     for the first nine months of the year.

o    In September, two of the four components, DB Currency Harvest and S&P
     X-Alpha contributed positive while DB SMART (5x leveraged) and DB
     Commodity Harvest had negative returns. Fed Funds returns were
     insignificant.

o    DB Currency Harvest and S&P X-Alpha indices returned 1.55% and 0.60%
     respectively, while DB Commodity Harvest and DB SMART (5x leveraged)
     returned -0.20% and -0.39% respectively.

o    The Sharpe Ratio since January 1999 is now at 1.70 compared to -0.32 for
     HFRX Hedge Funds and 0.46 for the iBoxx USD Treasuries; these statistics
     highlight the favorable risk-return relationship provided by the Liquid
     Alpha USD 5 TR Index during this period. (1)

o    As asset volatility has corrected over the past 12 months, Liquid Alpha
     volatility has come down at a much faster rate ( volatility = 3.93% over
     the past 12 months), which is currently below its 5% volatility target. In
     comparison, trailing 12 month volatility is 34.75% for MSCI World, 6.96%
     for Treasuries and 4.70% for Equity Hedge Funds.

                                                                                   Annualized
                                                                     --------------------------------
                                1 Month  3 Months  6 Months  1 year     YTD  1 year  3 years  5 years
Liquid Alpha 5% USD TR            0.27%     1.10%     5.73%   3.73%   9.21%   3.73%    4.23%    8.31%
HFRX Global Hedge Fund Index      2.22%     5.15%    10.24%  -3.63%  11.00%  -3.63%   -2.24%    0.59%
iBoxx USD Treasury                0.87%     2.17%    -1.02%   6.28%  -3.19%   6.28%    6.86%    5.22%
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Liquid Alpha 5% USD TR Constituents
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
S&P X-Alpha USD TR                0.60%    -0.79%     5.59%  10.72%  11.04%  10.72%    2.87%    7.48%
DB Commodity Harvest USD TR      -0.20%     0.56%    -0.92%   6.27%   1.21%   6.27%    7.14%   11.20%
DB Currency Harvest USD TR        1.55%     5.13%    14.82%  -0.98%  21.93%  -0.98%    6.29%    9.27%
DB SMART USD 5x TR               -0.39%     0.58%     4.61%   4.82%   7.25%   4.82%    3.51%    4.61%
Fed Funds TR                      0.01%     0.04%     0.08%   0.27%   0.13%   0.27%    2.88%    3.24%

(1): Liquid Alpha USD TR 5 has been retrospectively calculated and did not
exist prior to April 23, 2008. Accordingly, the results shown during the
retrospective periods do not reflect actual returns. Past performance is not
necessarily indicative of how the Index will perform in the future. The
performance of any investment product based on the DB Liquid Alpha Index would
have been lower than the performance of the Index as a result of fees or costs.

Monthly Performance(1)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
            1999   2000    2001    2002    2003   2004    2005   2006   2007   2008    2009
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Jan               1.73%   2.91%   1.18%   1.41%  0.91%   1.19%  1.57%  1.16%  0.22%   1.38%
Feb        0.97%  1.25%  -0.23%   0.55%   0.69%  2.30%   2.74%  0.87%  0.90%  0.20%   1.14%
Mar        0.93%  0.54%   2.05%   1.83%  -0.33%  0.51%   0.47%  0.72%  1.55%  0.05%   0.74%
Apr        1.13%  1.12%   0.42%   2.58%   5.12% -0.97%   0.70% -0.02%  1.75%  0.11%   1.92%
May        0.66%  2.27%   0.57%   0.64%   0.50%  0.23%   2.32% -0.05%  1.79%  0.91%   2.22%
Jun        0.59% -0.62%   0.82%   0.14%   2.85%  2.14%   2.55%  1.57%  0.69% -0.22%   0.38%
Jul       -0.59%  1.94%   0.05%   0.28%   0.30%  0.58%   0.64%  0.75% -0.50%  0.95%   0.62%
Aug       -0.37%  0.78%   0.49%   0.42%   1.27%  1.30%  -0.53%  1.84% -2.11% -0.72%   0.20%
Sep        0.46%  1.10%   1.26%   0.01%   1.14%  0.82%   2.82%  1.06%  2.16% -3.78%   0.27%
Oct        0.48%  2.20%   1.11%  -0.99%   1.15%  0.42%   1.64%  0.46%  1.69% -5.84%
Nov        0.26%  1.20%   0.96%   2.91%   1.39%  2.30%   1.67% -0.21% -0.92%  0.02%
Dec        0.62%  1.86%   1.26%   2.03%   1.12%  1.41%  -0.84%  2.46%  0.44%  0.84%
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Ann.Rtn.   5.39% 16.47%  12.26%  12.14%  17.83% 12.56%  16.38% 11.54%  8.85% -7.24%   9.21%
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Current Allocation

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Overview

-    Liquid Alpha USD 5 TR is a multi-asset medium- to long-term investment
     strategy which gives access to a diversified pool of alpha generating
     assets using a dynamic allocation tool

-    The strategy has the objective to generate absolute non-directional
     returns, un-correlated to the traditional markets, through a combination
     of diversified proprietary alpha generating strategies from different
     asset classes. The Index has been live since April 23, 2008

-    The allocation among the Underlying Indices occurs quarterly and is based
     on their returns, correlation and volatilities using a quantitative Mean
     Variance Optimizer model

-    The quantitative model combines the different sources of alpha and cash to
     generate an Index with a target volatility of 5%

-    Seeks to manage downside risk through a stop-loss mechanism which is
     triggered if the Index return over 60-business days is below 4% over any 3
     consecutive days

Performance Analysis Jan 99 - Sep 09(1)

                                Liquid Alpha         HFRX Global   iBoxx  USD
                                   5% USD TR    Hedge Fund Index     Treasury
 Growth over period                   193.4%               13.3%        79.0%
 Annualised return                     10.6%                1.9%         5.6%
 Volatility                             4.3%                4.3%         5.0%
 Sharpe Ratio (3.65%)                   1.70       -        0.32         0.46
 Maximum drawdown                     -10.0%              -25.2%        -5.8%
 Drawdown recovery                 11 Months            9 Months     4 Months
 Correlation versus:
 -------------------
 HFRX Global Hedge Fund Inde            0.46                1.00        -0.23
 iBoxx  USD Treasury  TR Index         -0.06               -0.23         1.00

Relative Performance: Sep 30, 2009(1)

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Rolling 12 Month Volatility: Jan 00 - Sep 09(1)

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(1): Liquid Alpha USD TR 5 has been retrospectively calculated and did not
exist prior to April 23, 2008. Accordingly, the results shown during the
retrospective periods do not reflect actual returns. Past performance is not
necessarily indicative of how the Index will perform in the future. The
performance of any investment product based on the DB Liquid Alpha Index would
have been lower than the performance of the Index as a result of fees or costs.
(2): Value indicates Risk Free Rate over Period computed from daily levels of
the DB Fed Funds Equivalent Index.

Liquid Alpha USD 5 Index Constituents

Index                           Asset Class   BBG Ticker   Live Date   Range Exposure
-----                           -----------   ----------   ---------   --------------
S&P X-Alpha USD TR:                Equity       SPXADT     10/31/2007         10%-50%
DB Commodity Harvest USD TR:     Commodity     DBCMHLTU    12/17/2007         10%-50%
DB Currency Harvest USD TR:       Currency     DBHVBUSF    10/19/2005         10%-50%
db SMART USD TR (leveraged 5x):    Rates       DBLASUT5    06/15/2007         10%-50%
Fed Funds TR:                       Cash       DBMMFED1    10/15/2007          0%-60%

CERTAIN RISKS OF LIQUID ALPHA

LIQUID ALPHA HAS LIMITED PERFORMANCE HISTORY -- Publication of Liquid Alpha
began on April 23, 2008. Therefore, it has very limited performance history and
no actual investment which allowed tracking of the performance of Liquid Alpha
was possible before that date.

AN INVESTMENT LINKED OR RELATED TO LIQUID ALPHA WILL NOT BE THE SAME AS AN
INVESTMENT IN THE ALPHA INDICES -- The Liquid Alpha closing level on any
trading day will depend on the performance of the 5 underlying index
constituents (the "Alpha Indices"). The weighting of each Alpha Index is
determined by an Optimized Asset Allocator ("OAA"), which seeks to maximize
returns for a given level of volatility. You should, therefore, carefully
consider the composition and calculation of each Alpha Index.

THE ALPHA INDICES EXPOSE YOUR INVESTMENT TO EQUITY, COMMODITY, CURRENCY AND
INTEREST RATE RISKS -- The Alpha Indices expose you to several asset classes
and their respective risks, including risks relating to exchange rate
fluctuations, foreign equity markets, commodity markets and emerging markets.
In addition, the rates component is five times leveraged. To learn more about
Liquid Alpha, see Underlying Supplement No. 4 dated September 29, 2009 filed
with the Securities and Exchange Commission.

THE ALPHA INDICES ARE NOT EQUALLY WEIGHTED IN THE LIQUID ALPHA MODEL AND MAY
OFFSET EACH OTHER -- The Alpha Indices are assigned different weightings in
Liquid Alpha via an Optimized Asset Allocation Model. The same return generated
by two Alpha Indices, whether positive or negative, may have a different effect
on the performance of Liquid Alpha. Additionally, positive returns generated by
one or more Alpha Index may be moderated or more than offset by smaller
positive returns or negative returns generated by the other Alpha Indices.

THE ACTUAL EXPERIENCED VOLATILITY OF EACH ALPHA INDEX AND LIQUID ALPHA MODEL
MAY NOT EQUAL THE TARGET VOLATILITY, WHICH MAY HAVE A NEGATIVE IMPACT ON THE
PERFORMANCE OF LIQUID ALPHA -- The weighting of each Alpha Index in the Liquid
Alpha Model is adjusted to target a volatility level of 5%. Because this
adjustment is based on the volatility of the previous 60 business days, the
actual volatility realized on the Alpha Indices and the Liquid Alpha Model will
not necessarily equal the volatility target.

THE CALCULATION OF LIQUID ALPHA'S CLOSING LEVEL WILL INCLUDE A DEDUCTION OF
COSTS FROM THE ALPHA INDICES -- On each trading day, the calculation of Liquid
Alpha's closing level will include a deduction of costs from the Alpha Indices
currently ranging between a minimum of 21 basis points per annum and maximum of
63 basis points per annum, depending on the individual weightings of the Alpha
Indices.
 
 

 
 

IMPORTANT INFORMATION

Use of hypothetical information:
Backtested, hypothetical or simulated performance results discussed herein have
inherent limitations. Unlike an actual performance record based on actual
client portfolios, simulated results are achieved by means of the retroactive
application of a backtested model itself designed with the benefit of
hindsight. Taking into account historical events the backtesting of performance
also differs from actual account performance because an actual investment
strategy may be adjusted any time, for any reason, including a response to
material, economic or market factors. The backtested performance includes
hypothetical results that do not reflect the reinvestment of dividends and
other earnings or the deduction of advisory fees, brokerage or other
commissions, and any other expenses that a client would have paid or actually
paid. No representation is made that any trading strategy or account will or is
likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. Alternative
modeling techniques or assumptions might produce significantly different
results and prove to be more appropriate. Past hypothetical backtest results
are neither an indicator nor guarantee of future returns. Actual results will
vary, perhaps materially, from the analysis.

Past performance:
The past performance of securities, indexes or other instruments referred to
herein does not guarantee or predict future performance.

Deutsche Bank may hold positions:
We or our affiliates or persons associated with us or such affiliates may:
maintain a long or short position in securities referred to herein, or in
related futures or options, purchase or sell, make a market in, or engage in
any other transaction involving such securities, and earn brokerage or other
compensation. Instruments linked to this index typically involve a high degree
of risk, are not transferable and typically will not be listed or traded on any
exchange and are intended for sale only to sophisticated investors who are
capable of understanding and assuming the risks involved. The market value of
any structured security linked to this index may be affected by changes in
economic, financial and political factors (including but not limited to, spot
and forward interest and exchange rates), time to maturity, market conditions
and volatility and the equity prices and credit quality of any issuer or
reference issuer. Any investor should conduct his/her own investigation and
analysis of any product linked to this index and consult with its own
professional advisors as to the risks involved in making such a purchase;
since, it may be difficult to realize the investment prior to maturity, obtain
reliable information about the market value of such investments or the extent
of the risks to which they are exposed, including the risk of total loss of
capital.

Tax:
Deutsche Bank AG, including its subsidiaries and affiliates, does not provide
legal, tax or accounting advice. This communication was prepared solely in
connection with the promotion or marketing, to the extent permitted by
applicable law, of the transaction or matter addressed herein, and was not
intended or written to be used, and cannot be used or relied upon, by any
taxpayer for purposes of avoiding any U.S. federal income tax penalties. The
recipient of this communication should seek advice from an independent tax
advisor regarding any tax matters addressed herein based on its particular
circumstances. Any information relating to taxation is based on information
currently available. The levels and bases of, and relief from, taxation can
change and the benefits of products where discussed may cease to exist. Because
of the importance of tax considerations to all option transactions, the
investor considering options should consult with his/her tax advisor as to how
taxes affect the outcome of contemplated option transactions.

Not insured:
These instruments are not insured by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation
(FDIC) or any other U.S. governmental agency. These instruments are not insured
by any statutory scheme or governmental agency of the United Kingdom. The
distribution of this document and availability of these products and services
in certain jurisdictions may be restricted by law. These securities have not
been registered under the United States Securities Act of 1933 and trading in
the securities has not been approved by the United States Commodity Exchange
Act, as amended.

The Bank and affiliates:
"Deutsche Bank" means Deutsche Bank AG and its affiliated companies, as the
context requires. Deutsche Bank Private Wealth Management refers to Deutsche
Bank's wealth management activities for high-net-worth clients around the
world. Deutsche Bank Alex. Brown is a division of Deutsche Bank Securities Inc.

Free writing prospectus:
Deutsche Bank AG has filed a registration statement (including a prospectus)
with the SEC for the offerings to which this communication may relate. Before
you invest, you should read the prospectus in that registration statement and
other documents the issuer has filed with the SEC for more complete information
about the issuer and this offering. You may get these documents for free by
visiting EDGAR on the SEC Web site at www.sec.gov. Alternatively, the issuer,
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send you the prospectus if you request it by calling toll-free 1-800-311-4409.