FWP 1 dp12754_fwp.htm FORM FWP
 
 


Effective Use of Structured Products
In an Uncertain World

February 2009

Erick Goralski
Director
Structured Investments
Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.

 
 

 
 



Evolution of the U.S. Structured Products Marketplace

Pre-2005                 2006                2007                2008
--------                 ----                ----                ----
U.S Business is          Industry            The vision of what
predominantly            participants begin  the market could
the domain of            to place            become, shows
wire-house               significant focus   the first signs of
firms with large         on the "Third       coming to fruition:
broker networks          Party" client
(Merrill Lynch,          space.              o Wire-house firms
Citi, UBS, Morgan                            move to "open
Stanley, Goldman         Independent         architecture"
Sachs, etc).             brokerage firms,    model.
                         asset managers,     o Independent
Market participants      private banks and   firms begin broad
lacking distribution     Registered          adoption
(Lehman, DB, Bear, etc)  Investment          o Investment
had marginal             Advisors are        Advisors enter
businesses, at best.     targeted.           space in a
                                             meaningful way
                         Modest results are  o Large portion of
                         achieved, largely   the business
                         focused on a        migrates to "fee
                         narrow range of     based" (non-
                         products.           commission)

 
 

 
 



2008: The "Tipping Point"

o The year began with tremendous momentum carried over from late 2007

     oUncertainty in the market, coupled with an enhanced awareness of how
     structured products could be used in client portfolios led to steep
     increases in product issuance.
     o Clients began to utilize "synthetic asset management" as a surrogate for
     actively managed strategies.
          o Comparable/superior performance, with superior fees, transparency
          and liquidity

     o Client demand for commodity exposure with degrees of capital protection
     was high in the first half of the year.

o On many levels, the defining event of 2008 was Lehman Brothers
     o At the time, it was uncertain as to the impact the Lehman bankruptcy
     would have on the structured products industry.

o September, October and November were the strongest months of the year
     o Counterparty scrutiny was incredibly high


 
 

 
 



Industry Forensics

o   Who is participating in the market?
    o   Traditional Structured Products investors (commission driven brokerage
        networks) remain strong participants.
    o   Since September 08, bank issued market linked CDs with FDIC insurance
        are in strong demand.

o   By far the fastest growing market segment are Registered Investment Advisors
    and Independent Advisory networks.
    o   Traditional long only stock, bond and mutual fund buyers.
    o   Non-Commission driven: Investing based on the merits of the products,
        not based on the amount of commission that the product pays them.

o   Why are they choosing to utilize these investments?
    o   In some cases, they have determined that the structures/underlying
        instruments are the best way to gain exposure to a given asset class.
    o   Cash is not a long-term solution: "I can't continue to be a negatively
        yielding savings account that lacks FDIC insurance".
    o   They recognize that for a portion of a clients portfolio, it is
        important to maintain market exposure, but reduce the uncertainty of the
        outcome over a given period of time.


 
 

 
 



Reduction Of Uncertainty

 For any given period, being long the market presents the following risk profile:

Investment Return

   Underlying
     Return

The investor owns the market all the way up and all the way down

For a given period, structured products define a more narrow range of outcomes

Leveraged/Buffered Notes      Absolute Return Notes    Buffered Barrier
                                                         Rebate Notes
Note Return                        Note Return            Note Return

Underlying                         Underlying              Underlying
  Return                             Return                  Return

All terms reflected above are purely hypothetical and may not be available at a given time based on current
market variables.


 
 

 
 



Structured Products From the Ground UP

All Structured Products payoffs can be constructed by some combination of call(s) and/or puts, which can range
from vanilla options to more exotic varieties such as "barrier" options, "Look Back" options, "Rainbow"
options.to name a few.


 
 

 
 



Structured Products From the Ground UP

It is understood that investors are exposed to credit risk against the issuer of the product.   Structured
products are often described as having an underlying Zero Coupon Bond

             5%          Bond           5% Plus any         Profit
                         Accretes       premium
          Initial        To             generated from      Option
 $        Bond           Par            selling options     Based
          Floor          Over the       tells us how        Return
          95%            Term of        much we have
                         the            to "Spend"          "Bond"

                         Structure

         3 Year                                             3 Year
         "Bond"                                             Structured Product

The "Bond Floor" is determined by two things:

     o 3 Month Libor (Which is currently very low)

     o The issuer's "Spread"- Credit strength and issuer spread have an inverse
     relationship (i.e. the less credit worthy, the more interest they have to
     pay when given cash.)

     All terms reflected above are purely hypothetical and may not be available
     at a given time based on current market variables.


 
 

 
 



Structured Products From the Ground UP

There are many different types of options that are currently used in Structured
Products, but the most common are "Vanilla" options and "Barrier" Options

Vanilla Option: An option that has two meaningful dates; the day that the option
is initially set (the Strike date) and the final day on which it is valued (the
Final Valuation or Expiry date).

Call  Option Payoff Diagram

Underlying Value

Final Date
Final Underlying Value = 125%

Strike Date
Strike Level = 100%

Time

When using Vanilla options, the Final Value of the option is not impacted by the
path of the underlying throughout the life of the option. As long as the Final
Level of the Underlying is greater/less than the Initial Level in the case of a
Call/Put, the option will have value at maturity.

All terms reflected above are purely hypothetical and may not be available at a
given time based on current market variables.


 
 

 
 



Structured Products From the Ground UP

Barrier Option: Barrier Options introduce the concept of "Path Dependency" of
the underlying. They function in a similar way to Vanilla Options (at maturity),
unless the underlying has moved through a pre-defined point at some point during
the life of the option. If the "barrier crossing" occurs, the option value is
zero at maturity.

Scenario 1                                        Scenario 2

Underlying Value                                  Underlying Value

Barrier =125%       Scenario 1, the barrier       Barrier =125%
                    is never crossed. Barrier
Strike              option and Vanilla
=100%               option have equal value       Barrier is
                    at maturity.                  Broken
Time                                              Option Expires
                    Scenario 2, the barrier is    Worthless
                    broken. At maturity,
                    Vanilla option captures
                    the upside of the
                    market, Barrier option
                    expires worthless.

All terms reflected above are purely hypothetical and may not be available at a
given time based on current market variables.


 
 

 
 



Structured Products From the Ground UP

Why would an investor use non-Vanilla Options (Barrier options, etc)?

     o Most obvious and fundamental they are often less expensive than vanilla
     options.

          o Added barrier risk/path dependency reduces cost
          o Investor "sells" volatility at the barrier and is paid well given
          highly elevated market volatility.
          o Significantly more flexibility in the payoff's that can be created
          o If barriers exceed the investors expectations for what the market
          will realize, barrier options are a more attractive choice

Investor Profit                              Investor Profit

If an investors          They can capture
expectation is           the same return
"X" what is the          in a less
value of upside          expensive way,
beyond this              provided that the
point?                   barriers exceed
                         their expectation
Investor                 for the
Expectation              underlying over
                         the life of the
Underlying Value         product.           Underlying Value

All terms reflected above are purely hypothetical and may not be available at a
given time based on current market variables.


 
 

 
 



Structured Products From the Ground UP

Components of several common Structured Products

Example 1: Buffered "Return Enhanced Note"
Tenor/Duration:  13 Months
Underlying Asset:  Equity Index
Downside Protection:  10%
Upside Participation: 200% (Client Gains 2:1 up to the cap)
Upper Cap: 108%

               Option Breakdown

Upper Cap       		           Investor Sells
  108%          			       Two 108 Strike Calls

Strike Level    			       Investor Buys
   100%         			       Two At The
                                   Money Calls

Buffer Level    			       Investor Sells
    90%         			       One 90 Strike Put

All terms reflected above are purely hypothetical and may not be available at a
given time based on current market variables.


 
 

 
 



Structured Products From the Ground UP

Components of several common Structured Products

Example 2: M-Note (Absolute Return Barrier Note)
Tenor/Duration:  18 Months
Underlying Asset:  Equity Index
Downside Protection: 100% at Maturity
Barriers:  +/- 25%

               Option Breakdown

Upper Cap       			       If Underlying closes
  125%          			       above upper barrier
                                   options "Knock Out"

Strike Level    			       Investor Buys
   100%         			       ATM Barrier Call
                                   And Buys ATM
                                   Barrier Put

Buffer Level    			       If Underlying closes
    75%         			       below lower barrier
                                   options "Knock Out"

All terms reflected above are purely hypothetical and may not be available at a
given time based on current market variables.


 
 

 
 



Structured Products From the Ground UP

Components of several common Structured Products

Example 3: Buffered Barrier Rebate Note
Tenor/Duration:  15 Months
Underlying Asset:  Equity Index
Downside Protection: 15% at Maturity
Participation Factor:  150% of index upside
Upper Barrier:  45% (max return is 67.5%)
Rebate Amount:  7.5%


               Option Breakdown

                                   If Underlying closes
                                   above upper barrier
Upper Barrier   			       options "Knock Out"
    145%        			       and Investor receives
                                   7.5% "Rebate"

Rebate Level
   7.5%


                                   Investor Buys
Strike Level    			       1.5 Barrier/Rebate
    100%        			       call options


Lower Level    				       Investor Sells One 85
    85%        				       strike vanilla put

All terms reflected above are purely hypothetical and may not be available at a
given time based on current market variables.


 
 

 
 



Buffered Underlying Securities: CUSIP 2515A0AP8
Hindsight analysis of note pricing vs. Underlying performance

BUyS linked to the Nikkei 225 Index

                    Summary Terms

CUSIP:         2515A0AP8
Trade Date:    February 26, 2007
Tenor:         36 months
Underlying:    Nikkei 225 Index
Buffer:        20%
Participation
Factor:        130%
Payment
at Maturity:   If the final level is greater than or equal to the Initial Level,
               investor receives:
               Notional + (Notional * Index Return * Participation Rate) If the
               Final Index Level is less than the Initial Level, and the decline
               is less than or equal to the Buffer, investor receives Notional.
               If the Final Index Level is less than the Initial Level by an
               amount greater than the Buffer, investor receives:
               Notional + (Notional * (Index Return + Buffer))

The terms above reflect market conditions at the time of the offering and may
not be available at a given time based on current market variables.

Source: Bloomberg as of 1/21/09


 
 

 
 



Absolute Return Barrier Note: CUSIP 25152C643

M-Note linked to the S&P 500 Index


                   Summary Terms

CUSIP:         25152C643
Trade Date:    March 26, 2007
Tenor :        18 months
Underlying:    S&P 500 Index
Barrier:       +/- 21%
Payment at     If Underlying ever trades outside Barriers,
Maturity:      00%

               If Underlying never trades outside Barriers, 100% + Absolute
               Return

Payment
Made:          117.34% @ maturity

The terms above reflect market conditions at the time of the offering and may
not be available at a given time based on current market variables.

Source: Bloomberg as of 09/23/08


 
 

 
 



Absolute Return Barrier Note: CUSIP 2515A0FR9

M-Note linked to the MSCI EAFE Index

                                                 Summary Terms

CUSIP:         2515A0FR9
Trade Date:    November 26, 2007
Tenor:         18 months
Underlying:    MSCI EAFE Index
Barrier:       +/- 23%
Payment at     If Underlying ever trades outside Barriers,
Maturity:      100%

               If Underlying never trades outside Barriers, 100% + Absolute
               Return

Status:        Knocked out on 09/04/08

The terms above reflect market conditions at the time of the offering and may
not be available at a given time based on current market variables.

Source: Bloomberg as of 01/21/09


 
 

 
 



Indicative Performance Calculations

o Indicative Pricing for all Deutsche Bank Structured Equity Notes are based off
of bid levels posted by Deutsche Bank on Bloomberg that reflect indicative
unwind levels for a limited notional amount of a given note (generally up to
$1,000,000). The indicative bid levels posted on Bloomberg include accrued
interest, if any, for a given security.

o Actual unwind levels may vary from the indicative bid levels posted on
Bloomberg depending on many factors that include actual unwind notional amount,
current volatility of the underlier, liquidity in the market, Deutsche Bank's
creditworthiness, and Deutsche Bank's profit and loss amortization assumptions.

o Deutsche Bank's upfront fees (if any) are amortized over a portion of the life
of the trade. Indicative bid levels posted on Bloomberg may not reflect the true
fair value of a given security.

o Indicative Note Performance is calculated using the underlying stock
performance and accrued interest (if any) during the given time frame

o Stock total return is calculated using stock price and dividends (if any) paid
out to investors during the given timeframe


 
 

 
 



Risk Factors

oAn investment in the securities described herein may result in a loss, and any
payment is subject to our creditworthiness

o Certain built-in costs are likely to adversely affect the value of the
securities prior to maturity

o You have no periodic coupon or dividend payments or voting rights

o The securities will not be listed and there will likely be limited liquidity

o Our research, opinions or recommendations could affect the level of the
underlyings or the market value of the securities

o Our actions as calculation agent of the securities and our hedging activity
may adversely affect the value of the securities

o Many economic and market factors will affect the value of the securities


 
 

 
 



Disclaimer

Copyright 2009 Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. All rights reserved. "Deutsche
Bank" means Deutsche Bank AG and its affiliated companies, as the context
requires.

The distribution of this document and the availability of some of the products
and services referred to herein may be restricted by law in certain
jurisdictions. Some products and services referred to herein are not eligible
for sale in all countries and in any event may only be sold to qualified
investors. Deutsche Bank will not offer or sell any products or services to any
persons prohibited by the law in their country of origin or in any other
relevant country from engaging in any such transactions.

Deutsche Bank or persons associated with Deutsche Bank an their affiliates may
maintain a long or short position in securities referred to herein, or in
related futures or options, purchase or sell, make a market in, trade
instruments economically related to or have investment banking or other
relationships with the issuers of or engage in any other transaction involving
such securities, and earn brokerage or other compensation. Any transaction that
may involve the products, services and strategies referred to in this
presentation will involve risks. You could lose your entire investment or incur
substantial loss. The products, services and strategies referred to herein may
not be suitable for all investors. The information contained in this
presentation is being provided on the basis that you have such knowledge and
experience in financial and business matters to be capable of evaluating the
merits and risks associated with such information. In contemplating any
transaction, you should consult with your own investment advisors. In any
discussion of a proposed transaction, Deutsche Bank would act at arms length
and not in any advisory or fiduciary capacity.

The information contained in this presentation does not represent the rendering
of accounting, tax, legal or regulatory advice. It cannot be used or relied upon
for purposes of avoiding compliance with any accounting, tax, legal or
regulatory obligations or avoiding satisfaction of any U.S. federal income tax
penalties. You should consult with independent accounting, tax, legal and
regulatory counsel regarding such matters as they may apply to your particular
circumstances. Foreign currency rates of exchange may adversely affect the
value, price or income of any security or investment. Past performance is no
guarantee of future results.

Backtested, hypothetical or simulated performance results discussed herein have
inherent limitations. Unlike an actual performance record based on trading
actual client portfolios, simulated results are achieved by means of the
retroactive application of a backtested model itself designed with the benefit
of hindsight. Taking into account historical events the backtesting of
performance also differs from actual account performance because an actual
investment strategy may be adjusted any time, for any reason, including a
response to material, economic or market factors. The backtested performance
includes hypothetical results that do not reflect the reinvestment of dividends
and other earnings or the deduction of advisory fees, brokerage or other
commissions, and any other expenses that a client would have paid or actually
paid. No representation is made that any trading strategy or account will or is
likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. Alternative modeling
techniques or assumptions might produce significantly different results and
prove to be more appropriate. Past hypothetical backtest results are neither an
indicator nor guarantee of future returns. Actual results will vary, perhaps
materially, from the analysis. Results represent the performance of each basket
on a back tested basis, tied to a structure whose economics are determined by
current economic factors such as current volatilities and interest rates. There
is no guarantee that a similar structure would have been available at any point
in the past and that such results could have been achieved.

Options, structured securities and illiquid investments, such as private
investments, are complex instruments and are not be suitable for all investors.
Prior to buying or selling an option investors must review the Characteristics
and Risks of Standardized Options: http://onn.theocc.com/publications/risks/riskstoc.pdf
If you are unable to access the website please contact Deutsche Bank AG at +1
(212) 250-6248 for a copy of this important document.


These investments typically involve a high degree of risk, are not transferable
and typically will not be listed or traded on any exchange and are intended for
sale only to sophisticated investors who are capable of understanding and
assuming the risks involved. The market value of any structured security may be
affected by changes in economic, financial and political factors (including, but
not limited to, spot and forward interest and exchange rates), time to maturity,
market conditions and volatility and the equity prices and credit quality of any
issuer or reference issuer. Any investor should conduct his/her own
investigation and analysis of the product and consult with its own professional
advisers as to the risks involved in making such a purchase; since, it may be
difficult to realize the investment prior to maturity, obtain reliable
information about the market value of such investments or the extent of the
risks to which they are exposed, including the risk of total loss of capital.


 
 

 
 



Disclaimer (con't)

Calculations of returns on instruments referred to herein may be linked to a
referenced index or interest rate. In such cases, the investments may not be
suitable for persons unfamiliar with such index or interest rate, or unwilling
or unable to bear the risks associated with the transaction. Products
denominated in a currency, other than the investor's home currency, will be
subject to changes in exchange rates, which may have an adverse effect on the
value, price or income return of the products. These products may not be readily
realizable investments and are not traded on any regulated market. The
securities referred to herein involve risk, which may include interest rate,
index, currency, credit, political, liquidity, time value, commodity and market
risk and is not suitable for all investors.

These instruments are not bank deposits and are not insured by the Federal
Deposit Insurance Corporation or any other governmental agency. These
instruments are not guaranteed under the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation's
Temporary Liquidity Guarantee Program. These instruments are not insured by any
statutory scheme or governmental agency of the United Kingdom. The distribution
of this document and availability of these products and services in certain
jurisdictions may be restricted by law.

Deutsche Bank AG has filed a registration statement (including a prospectus)
with the Securities and Exchange Commission, or SEC, for offerings to which this
communication relates. Before you invest, you should read the prospectus in that
registration statement and the other documents relating to such offering that
Deutsche Bank AG has filed with the SEC for more complete information about
Deutsche Bank AG and the offering. You may obtain these documents without cost
by visiting EDGAR on the SEC website at www.sec.gov. Alternatively, Deutsche
Bank AG, any agent or any dealer participating in the offering will arrange to
send you the prospectus if you so request by calling toll-free 1-800-311-4409.