EX-99.1 2 dex991.htm PRESENTATION SLIDES Presentation Slides
Exelon Generation Hedging Program
April 2009
Exhibit 99.1


2
Forward-Looking Statements
This presentation includes forward-looking statements.  There are a number of risks and
uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from the forward-looking
statements made herein.   The factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from
these forward-looking statements include those discussed in (1) Exelon’s 2008 Annual Report on
Form 10-K in (a) ITEM 1A. Risk Factors, (b) ITEM 7. Management’s Discussion and Analysis of
Financial Condition and Results of Operations and (c) ITEM 8. Financial Statements and
Supplementary Data: Note 18; and (2) other factors discussed in Exelon’s filings with the SEC. 
Readers are cautioned not to place undue reliance on these forward-looking statements, which
apply only as of the date of this filing.  Exelon does not undertake any obligation to publicly
release any revision to its forward-looking statements to reflect events or circumstances after the
date of this filing, except as required by law.


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Important Information
This presentation is intended to provide additional information regarding the hedging program at
Exelon Generation and to serve as an aid for the purposes of modeling
Exelon Generation’s
gross margin (operating revenues less purchased power and fuel expense). The information in
this presentation is not intended to represent earnings guidance
or a forecast of future events. 
In fact, many of the factors that ultimately will determine Exelon Generation’s actual gross
margin are based upon highly variable market factors outside of our control.  The information in
this presentation is as of February 28, 2009.  Going forward, we
plan to update the information
on a quarterly basis.
Certain information in this presentation is based upon an internal simulation model that
incorporates assumptions regarding future market conditions, including power and commodity
prices, heat rates and demand conditions, in addition to operating performance and dispatch
characteristics of our generating fleet.  Our simulation model and the assumptions therein are
subject to change.  For example, actual market conditions and the dispatch profile of our
generation fleet in future periods will likely differ –
and may differ significantly –
from the
assumptions underlying the simulation results included in this presentation.  In addition, the
forward-looking information included in this presentation will likely change over time due to
continued refinement of our simulation model and changes in our views on future market
conditions.


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Portfolio Management Objective
Align Hedging Activities with Financial Commitments
Power Team utilizes several product types and
channels to market
Wholesale and retail sales
Block products
Load-following products
and load auctions
Put/call options
Exelon’s hedging program is designed to protect the
long-term value of our generating fleet and maintain
an investment-grade balance sheet
Hedge enough commodity risk to meet future cash
requirements if prices drop
Consider:  financing policy (credit rating objectives, capital
structure, liquidity); spending (capital and O&M); shareholder
value return policy
Consider market, credit, operational risk
Approach to managing volatility
Increase hedging as delivery approaches
Have enough supply to meet peak load
Purchase fossil fuels as power is sold
Choose
hedging
products
based
on
generation
portfolio
sell
what we own
Heat rate options
Fuel products
Capacity
Renewable credits
By design, our hedging program allows us to weather short-term, adverse market conditions 
while positioning us to participate in long-term upside potential


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5
Percentage of Expected
Generation Hedged
How many equivalent MW have been hedged at
forward market prices;  all hedge products used are
converted to an equivalent average MW volume
Takes ALL
hedges into account whether they are
power sales or financial products
Equivalent MWs Sold
Expected Generation
=
Our normal practice is to hedge commodity risk on a ratable basis over the three
years leading to the spot market
Carry operational length into spot market to manage forced outage and load-following risks
By
using
the
appropriate
product
mix,
expected
generation
hedged
approaches
the
mid-90s
percentile
as
the delivery period approaches
Participation in larger procurement events, such as utility auctions, and some flexibility in the timing of
hedging may mean the hedge program is not strictly ratable from quarter to quarter
Exelon Generation Hedging Program


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Open gross margin assumes all expected generation is sold at the
Reference Prices listed below
2009
2010
2011
Estimated Open Gross Margin (millions)
(1,2)
$5,450
$5,900
$6,350
Reference Prices
(1)
Henry Hub Natural Gas ($/MMBtu)
NI-Hub ATC Energy Price ($/MWh)
PJM-W ATC Energy Price ($/MWh)    
ERCOT North ATC Spark Spread ($/MWh)
(3)
$4.71
$30.63
$45.08
($1.08)
$6.08
$31.64
$50.35
($0.99)
$6.69
$36.93
$54.18
$0.36
(1)
Based on February 28, 2009 market conditions. 
(2)
Gross margin is defined as operating revenues less fuel expense and purchased power expense, excluding the impact of decommissioning and other incidental revenues. Open
gross margin is estimated based upon an internal model that is developed by dispatching our expected generation to current market power and fossil fuel prices.  Open gross
margin assumes there is no hedging in place other than fixed assumptions for capacity cleared in the RPM auctions and uranium costs for nuclear power plants.  Open gross
margin contains assumptions for other gross margin line items such as various ISO bill and ancillary revenues and costs and PPA capacity payments.  The estimation of open
gross margin incorporates management discretion and modeling assumptions that are subject to change.
(3)
ERCOT North ATC spark spread using Houston Ship Channel Gas, 7,200 heat rate, $2.50 variable O&M.
Exelon Generation Open Gross Margin and
Reference Prices


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7
7
(1)
Expected
generation
represents
the
amount
of
energy
estimated
to
be
generated
or
purchased
through
owned
or
contracted
for
capacity.
Expected
generation
is
based
upon
a
simulated dispatch
model
that
makes
assumptions
regarding
future
market
conditions,
which
are
calibrated
to
market
quotes
for
power,
fuel,
load
following
products,
and
options.
Expected
generation
assumes 10
refueling outages in 2009 and 2010 and 11 refueling outages in 2011 at Exelon-operated nuclear plants and Salem.  Expected generation assumes capacity factors of 93.3%, 92.7% and 92.8% in
2009, 2010 and 2011 at Exelon-operated nuclear plants. These estimates of expected generation in 2010 and 2011 do not represent guidance or a forecast of future results as Exelon has not
completed its planning or optimization processes for those years.
(2)
Percent of expected generation hedged is the amount of equivalent sales divided by the expected generation.  Includes all hedging products, such as wholesale and retail sales of power, options, and
swaps.  Uses expected value on options.
(3)
Effective realized energy price is representative of an all-in hedged price, on a per MWh basis, at which expected generation has been hedged.  It is developed by considering the energy revenues
and costs associated with our hedges and by considering the fossil fuel that has been purchased to lock in margin.  It excludes capacity revenue and uranium costs.  It can be compared with the
reference
prices
used
to
calculate
open
gross
margin
in
order
to
determine
the
mark-to-market
value
of
Exelon
Generation's
energy
hedges.
2009
2010
2011
Expected Generation
(GWh)
(1)
170,500
166,100
167,500
Midwest
99,400
96,900
98,500
Mid-Atlantic
57,500
58,500
58,100
South
13,600
10,700
10,900
Percentage of Expected Generation Hedged
(2)
91-94%
81-84%
40-43%
Midwest
93-96
79-82
49-52
Mid-Atlantic
93-96
91-94
27-30
South
67-70
39-42
14-17
Effective Realized Energy Price
($/MWh)
(3)
Midwest
$48.00
$48.00
$47.25
Mid-Atlantic
$37.00
$37.50
$71.25
ERCOT North ATC Spark Spread
$3.75
$5.00
$7.00
Generation Profile


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8
8
2009
2010
2011
Gross Margin Sensitivities with Existing Hedges (millions)
(1)
Henry Hub Natural Gas
+ $1/MMBtu
-
$1/MMBtu
NI-Hub ATC Energy Price
+$5/MWH
-$5/MWH
PJM-W ATC Energy Price
+$5/MWH
-$5/MWH
Nuclear Capacity Factor
+1% / -1%
$18
($4)
$10
($9)
$20
($18)
+/-$40
$70
($50)
$115
($115)
$30
($30)
+/-$50
$420
($390)
$265
($265)
$230
($230)
+/-$50
(1)
Based on February 28, 2009 market conditions and hedged position. Gas price sensitivities are based on an assumed gas-power relationship derived from an
internal model that is updated periodically.
Power prices sensitivities are derived by adjusting the power price assumption while keeping all other prices inputs
constant.
Due
to
correlation
of
the
various
assumptions,
the
hedged
gross
margin
impact
calculated
by
aggregating
individual
sensitivities
may
not
be
equal
to
the
hedged gross margin impact calculated when correlations between the various assumptions are also considered.
Exelon Generation Gross Margin Sensitivities
(with Existing Hedges)


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9
9
95% case
5% case
$6,800
$6,500
$5,800
$6,900
$6,100
$8,900
Exelon Generation Gross Margin Upside / Risk
(with Existing Hedges)
$4,000
$5,000
$6,000
$7,000
$8,000
$9,000
$10,000
2009
2010
2011
(1)
Represents
an
approximate
range
of
expected
gross
margin,
taking
into
account
hedges
in
place,
between
the
5th
and
95th
percent
confidence
levels.
Approximate
gross
margin ranges are based upon an internal simulation model and are subject to change based upon market inputs, future transactions and potential modeling changes. These
ranges
of
approximate
gross
margin
in
2010
and
2011
do
not
represent
earnings
guidance
or
a
forecast
of
future
results
as
Exelon
has
not
completed
its
planning
or
optimization
processes
for
those
years.
The
price
distributions
that
generate
this
range
are
calibrated
to
market
quotes
for
power,
fuel,
load
following
products,
and
options
as
of
February 28, 2009.


10
10
Midwest
Mid-Atlantic
ERCOT
Step 1
Start
with
fleetwide
open
gross
margin 
$5.45 billion
Step 2
Determine the mark-to-market value
of energy hedges
99,400GWh * 94% *
($48.00/MWh-$30.63/MWh)
= $1.6 billion
57,500GWh * 94% *
($37.00/MWh-$45.08/MWh)
= ($0.4 billion)
13,600GWh * 68% *
($3.75/MWh-($1.08)/MWh)
= $0.0 billion
Step 3
Estimate
hedged
gross
margin
by
adding open gross margin to mark-to-
market value of energy hedges
Open
gross
margin:
$5.45
billion
MTM value of energy hedges:          
$1.6
billion
+
($0.4
billion)
+
$0.0
billion
Estimated
hedged
gross
margin:
$6.65
billion
Illustrative Example
of Modeling Exelon Generation 2009 Gross Margin (with Existing Hedges)