EX-99.(C)(2) 4 a2169526zex-99_c2.htm EXHIBIT 99.(C)(2)

 

Project Oak Tree

 

 

Presentation to the Special Committee of the Board

 

 

 

Thomas Weisel Partners

 

MERCHANT BANKING

 

Champions of Growth

 

 

April 4, 2006

 



 

Preamble

 

This presentation contains a summary of the analyses performed by Thomas Weisel Partners LLC (“TWP”) for the Special Committee of the Board of Directors of Oak Tree Incorporated (“Oak Tree”) for discussion of its proposed acquisition by Austin Ventures LP and its affiliated and related entities (“Austin Ventures”). In connection with performing such analyses, we reviewed certain relevant financial and operating data relating to Oak Tree made available to us from published sources and from the internal records of Oak Tree. We have not assumed any obligation to independently verify such information and have relied on it being accurate and complete in all material respects. The presentation is further subject to the limitations, qualifications and assumptions set forth in our form of opinion.

 

Our analysis is directed solely to Oak Tree’s Special Committee of the Board of Directors in connection with its consideration of Oak Tree’s discussions with Austin Ventures. Accordingly, this presentation may not be used or referred to by Oak Tree or quoted or disclosed to any person other than Oak Tree’s directors, executive officers and attorneys in any manner without our express written prior consent.

 

 

Thomas Weisel Partners
MERCHANT BANKING

 

 

2



 

Table of Contents

 

I.

Process Overview

 

 

 

 

II.

Overview of Oak Tree

 

 

 

 

III.

Valuation Analysis of Oak Tree

 

 

3



 

Process Overview

 

 

 

Thomas Weisel Partners

 

MERCHANT BANKING

 

Champions of Growth

 



 

Introduction

 

TWP was engaged by Oak Tree in late June 2005 to explore potential strategic partners for the business

 

                  TWP identified and contacted 18 strategic and 14 financial potential partners

 

Austin Ventures has submitted a proposal to acquire Oak Tree for $3.34 per share in an all cash transaction

 

                  Represents a fully diluted equity value of $29.1 million

 

Overview of Oak Tree

 

                  Provider of scalable infrastructure software for the wireless data market

 

                  Component based product suite enables mobile operators to rapidly deploy flexible, open IP based network and data services

 

                  Publicly traded on the NASDAQ (SVNX) and Toronto Stock Exchange (SVN)

 

                  Customers include over 60 mobile operators including Vodafone, Telefonica

 

                  Headquartered in Santa Barbara, CA; development offices in Toronto, Switzerland and India

 

                  110+ employees

 

Overview of Austin Ventures

 

                  Over $3 billion under management across 9 funds

 

                  Work with companies across every stage of the funding cycle – from initial seed investment to buyouts and recapitalizations

 

                  Largest shareholder and creditor of Oak Tree

 

                  Joe Aragona and Ben Scott are on the Board of Oak Tree

 

5



 

Process Summary

 

TWP and Oak Tree signed an engagement letter on June 28th, 2005

 

Oak Tree and TWP finalized an initial list of potential buyers after several iterative discussions and due diligence meetings

 

                  Detailed discussion around rationale, approach, strategy and call script “tailored” for each buyer

 

Oak Tree pre-announced Q2-05 results on July 5th, 2005

 

                  Stock fell 12%

 

                  Given the weakness in the stock price and the impending summer slowdown, Oak Tree decided that it was not an appropriate time to initiate contact with potential buyers

 

Between August and October 2005, Oak Tree share price continued to drop

 

                  Announced Q2 results on August 9th

 

                  Announced termination of Sprint contract on September 30th

 

In October 2005, Austin Ventures verbally indicated that it may potentially be interested in submitting a proposal to acquire Oak Tree

 

                  The Oak Tree Board formed a Special Committee to assess the M&A process

 

                  The Special Committee instructed TWP to explore potential interest from other parties

 

6



 

TWP began contacting potential buyers in early November and continued the process through January 2006

 

                  Initial list included 12 strategic and eight financial buyers

 

                  List was expanded to include additional six strategic and six financial buyers

 

                  Four strategic buyers were contacted on a “no names” basis for competitive reasons

 

                  Austin Ventures and one additional buyer executed the NDA

 

                  Oak Tree held management presentations with both signatories

 

Austin Ventures executed an NDA on November 2nd, 2005

 

                  Oak Tree held a management presentation at Austin Ventures’ offices on November 7th, 2005

 

Austin Ventures submitted a preliminary written LOI on February 27th, 2006 with an intent to acquire Oak Tree for $3.07 per share

 

                  Offer was 16% below closing price on February 27th

 

                  The offer was publicly disclosed on February 27th

 

                  TWP reinitiated contact with the initial buyer list along with three additional buyers

 

                  One additional buyer executed an NDA and Oak Tree held a management presentation

 

On March 9th, 2006, Austin Ventures submitted a revised LOI, proposing to acquire Oak Tree for $3.34 per share

 

                  Special committee of Oak Tree signed the revised LOI

 

                  Limited exclusivity of four calendar weeks from date of signing

 

                  Tentative signing of plan of arrangement and announcement anticipated on April 6th, 2006

 

7



 

Overview of Oak Tree

 

 

 

Thomas Weisel Partners

 

MERCHANT BANKING

 

Champions of Growth

 



 

 

Issues to Consider

 

                  There are a number of factors to consider in evaluating Oak Tree’s current situation

 

Limited Cash Balance

 

                  IMS strategy would need significant additional CapEx

 

                  Additional financing, if possible, would be on significantly onerous terms

 

                  Capital required for ongoing public company infrastructure costs including interest settlement on AV convert

 

Revenue Visibility

 

                  Actual results for each of the last three quarters have been below management’s internal plan

 

                  Preliminary Q1 2006 results appear to be below Board approved management plan

 

Competitive Concerns

 

                  Oak Tree’s current scale creates structural competitive hurdles

 

                  Recent loss of Sprint contract – 32% of total revenues in 2005

 

                  Customer concentration issue – apart from Sprint, Oak Tree derives 37% of its revenue from Vodafone and Nokia

 

                  Consolidation in the end market may exert further price pressure

 

Management Turnover

 

                  VP of Sales, General Counsel and CFO have all turned over in the past few months

 

Lack of Visibility on Wall Street

 

                  Limited Analyst coverage

 

                  Extremely low institutional ownership

 

                  Limited liquidity in the stock

 

                  NASDAQ de-listing notice

 

9



 

LTM Stock Price Performance

 

                  Oak Tree’s stock has exhibited continuous weakness over the past twelve months

 

Trading Summary

 

Average

 

Current

 

1 Month

 

3 Months

 

6 Months

 

1 Year

 

Price

 

$

3.26

 

$

3.28

 

$

3.65

 

$

3.78

 

$

5.69

 

Volume (000s) (NASDAQ)

 

10

 

19

 

22

 

30

 

65

 

Volume (000s) (TSX)

 

20

 

24

 

30

 

66

 

50

 

 

 

Source: Factset Research Systems as of 3/31/06.

 

10



 

Wall Street Perspectives on Oak Tree

 

                  Wall Street analysts support the revised offer by Austin Ventures after being initially negative

 

Oak Tree

 

Research

 

Revenues

 

EBITDA

 

GAAP EPS Estimates

 

Bank

 

Analyst

 

Rating

 

Price Target

 

CY 06E

 

CY 07E

 

CY 06

 

CY 07E

 

CY 06E

 

CY 07E

 

Canaccord Adams

 

Misek

 

Tender

 

$

3.34

 

$

15.5

 

N.A.

 

N.A.

 

N.A.

 

N.A.

 

N.A.

 

Paradigm Capital

 

Richards

 

Neutral

 

3.50

 

15.9

 

19.8

 

(6.2

)

(3.0

)

(1.42

)

(0.78

)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Mean

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

$

15.7

 

$

19.8

 

$

(6.2

)

$

(3.0

)

$

(1.42

)

$

(0.78

)

Median

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

$

15.7

 

$

19.8

 

$

(6.2

)

$

(3.0

)

$

(1.42

)

$

(0.78

)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Board Approved Management Plan (Stretch)

 

$

24.0

 

N.A.

 

$

0.1

 

N.A.

 

$

(0.40

)

N.A.

 

Board Approved Management Plan (High Probability)

 

$

18.1

 

N.A.

 

$

(4.1

)

N.A.

 

$

(1.09

)

N.A.

 

 

Canaccord Adams – 03/13/06 | “Austin Raises Offer”

Peter Misek

 

                  In our opinion, the latest Austin Ventures offer is an improvement that signifies Austin’s dedication to the deal, and the valuation is closer to current market valuations of the firm. The support for this transaction by Oak Tree’ Special Committee of independent directors indicates that the committee believes this is the best alternative for the firm at this time.

 

                  With the increased offer price of US$3.34 being approximately 11% higher than our target price prior to the original offer, we recommend to shareholders to TENDER their holdings and institute a target price of US$3.34 based on this offer.

 

Paradigm Capital – 03/13/06 | “Oak Tree is Gone”

Barry Richards

 

                  Oak Tree announced that Austin Ventures had raised its bid from US$3.07 to US$3.34 and that the Board at Oak Tree had accepted the bid. The revised bid is a 9% increase but still falls below our $3.50 target price and below the pre-bid closing price US$3.64. Austin Ventures owns 10% of the stock outstanding, before converting its debenture, which increases that number to almost 40% of the stock. We believe AV needs about 50% of the votes from stock it doesn’t own and 66.7% of the total votes.

 

                  Overall, we believe the bid is still low, but fully expect that AV will get the votes it needs to complete this transaction. Furthermore, we do not expect another bidder. We recommend that shareholders tender into this revised offer.

 

Canaccord Adams – 02/17/06 | “Revenue Concerns Persist”

Peter Misek

 

                  We remain concerned that Oak Tree’s top line, even excluding the Sprint contract loss, continues to decline. By our estimates, the company’s Q4 revenue (excluding Sprint) would have been relatively flat sequentially and down approximately 20% Y/Y. We believe that the likelihood of management being able to backfill the Sprint loss in a timely fashion is declining given the erosion in non-Sprint revenue we are seeing.

 

                  We are maintaining our HOLD recommendation despite the weak Q4 results for three main reasons: Oak Tree is positioned in an attractive market that is poised for growth, the company has established relationships with large industry players like Vodafone, Ericsson and Nokia, and the company’s valuation at 1.4x EV/Sales is not overly excessive,

 

11



 

Historical Cash Balances

($ in millions)

 

                  Oak Tree’s cash balance has continued to decrease since AV’s investment in June 2004

 

 

Source: Public Filings.

Note: Cash balances as of the end of quarter. Includes restricted cash.

 

12



 

Oak Tree Income Statement

($ in millions, except per share data)

 

 

 

Wall Street

 

Management (Stretch)

 

Management (High Probability)

 

 

 

FY05

 

Mar-06

 

Jun-06

 

Sep-06

 

Dec-06

 

FY06

 

FY07

 

FY05

 

Mar-06

 

Jun-06

 

Sep-06

 

Dec-06

 

FY06

 

FY05

 

Mar-06

 

Jun-06

 

Sep-06

 

Dec-06

 

FY06

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Revenue

 

18.3

 

3.7

 

3.9

 

4.0

 

4.4

 

15.9

 

19.8

 

18.3

 

4.0

 

5.5

 

6.5

 

8.0

 

24.0

 

18.3

 

3.9

 

3.9

 

4.7

 

5.6

 

18.1

 

% Y/Y growth

 

21.2

%

(37.1

)%

(15.6

)%

(10.3

)%

28.7

%

(12.9

)%

24.2

%

21.2

%

(31.0

)%

19.0

%

45.7

%

136.7

%

31.4

%

21.2

%

(32.8

)%

(15.6

)%

5.4

%

65.7

%

(0.9

)%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Op. Ex.

 

22.4

 

5.5

 

5.7

 

5.8

 

5.8

 

22.7

 

23.4

 

22.4

 

5.7

 

5.9

 

6.3

 

6.6

 

24.5

 

22.4

 

5.6

 

5.7

 

5.7

 

5.8

 

22.8

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Op. Income

 

(4.2

)

(1.9

)

(1.8

)

(1.8

)

(1.5

)

(6.8

)

(3.6

)

(4.2

)

(1.7

)

(0.4

)

0.2

 

1.4

 

(0.5

)

(4.2

)

(1.7

)

(1.8

)

(1.0

)

(0.2

)

(4.7

)

% of Revenue

 

(22.8

)%

(50.7

)%

(45.5

)%

(43.8

)%

(33.3

)%

(42.9

)%

(18.4

)%

(22.8

)%

(42.1

)%

(7.4

)%

2.6

%

17.5

%

(2.2

)%

(22.8

)%

(43.4

)%

(45.3

)%

(21.4

)%

(3.5

)%

(25.7

)%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Depreciation

 

0.6

 

0.2

 

0.2

 

0.2

 

0.2

 

0.6

 

0.7

 

0.6

 

0.2

 

0.2

 

0.2

 

0.2

 

0.6

 

0.6

 

0.2

 

0.2

 

0.2

 

0.2

 

0.6

 

 

 

3.3

%

4.1

%

3.8

%

3.8

%

3.4

%

3.8

%

3.5

%

3.3

%

3.8

%

2.7

%

2.3

%

1.9

%

2.5

%

3.3

%

3.8

%

3.8

%

3.2

%

2.7

%

3.3

%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

EBITDA

 

(3.6

)

(1.7

)

(1.6

)

(1.6

)

(1.3

)

(6.2

)

(3.0

)

(3.6

)

(1.5

)

(0.3

)

0.3

 

1.6

 

0.1

 

(3.6

)

(1.5

)

(1.6

)

(0.9

)

(0.0

)

(4.1

)

 

 

(19.6

)%

(46.6

)%

(41.7

)%

(40.0

)%

(29.9

)%

(39.2

)%

(14.9

)%

(19.6

)%

(38.4

)%

(4.7

)%

4.9

%

19.4

%

0.3

%

(19.6

)%

(39.5

)%

(41.5

)%

(18.2

)%

(0.8

)%

(22.4

)%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Interest Expense

 

0.3

 

0.2

 

0.2

 

0.2

 

0.2

 

0.8

 

0.2

 

0.3

 

0.2

 

0.2

 

0.2

 

0.2

 

0.8

 

0.3

 

0.2

 

0.2

 

0.2

 

0.2

 

0.9

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Stock Comp/Other

 

1.6

 

0.2

 

0.3

 

0.3

 

0.3

 

1.0

 

1.1

 

1.6

 

0.2

 

0.2

 

0.3

 

0.3

 

1.1

 

1.6

 

0.2

 

0.2

 

0.3

 

0.3

 

1.1

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Pretax Income

 

(6.1

)

(2.3

)

(2.2

)

(2.2

)

(1.9

)

(8.6

)

(4.9

)

(4.5

)

(2.1

)

(0.9

)

(0.3

)

0.9

 

(2.4

)

(4.5

)

(2.1

)

(2.2

)

(1.5

)

(0.7

)

(6.6

)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Income Tax

 

0.0

 

0.0

 

0.0

 

0.0

 

0.0

 

0.0

 

0.0

 

0.0

 

0.0

 

0.0

 

0.0

 

0.0

 

0.0

 

0.0

 

0.0

 

0.0

 

0.0

 

0.0

 

0.0

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

GAAP Net Income

 

(6.1

)

(2.3

)

(2.2

)

(2.2

)

(1.9

)

(8.6

)

(4.9

)

(4.5

)

(2.1

)

(0.9

)

(0.3

)

0.9

 

(2.4

)

(4.5

)

(2.1

)

(2.2

)

(1.5

)

(0.7

)

(6.6

)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Cash Net Income

 

(4.5

)

(2.1

)

(2.0

)

(2.0

)

(1.7

)

(7.6

)

(3.8

)

(3.0

)

(1.9

)

(0.6

)

(0.0

)

1.2

 

(1.3

)

(3.0

)

(1.9

)

(2.0

)

(1.2

)

(0.4

)

(5.6

)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Shares Out (Basic)

 

6.0

 

6.1

 

6.1

 

6.1

 

6.1

 

6.1

 

6.3

 

6.0

 

6.1

 

6.1

 

6.1

 

6.1

 

6.1

 

6.0

 

6.1

 

6.1

 

6.1

 

6.1

 

6.1

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

GAAP EPS

 

$

(1.00

)

$

(0.38

)

$

(0.37

)

$

(0.36

)

$

(0.31

)

$

(1.42

)

$

(0.78

)

$

(0.75

)

$

(0.35

)

$

(0.14

)

$

(0.05

)

$

0.15

 

$

(0.40

)

$

(0.75

)

$

(0.35

)

$

(0.37

)

$

(0.25

)

$

(0.12

)

$

(1.09

)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Cash EPS

 

$

(0.75

)

$

(0.34

)

$

(0.33

)

$

(0.32

)

$

(0.27

)

$

(1.25

)

$

(0.61

)

$

(0.49

)

$

(0.31

)

$

(0.10

)

$

(0.01

)

$

0.19

 

$

(0.22

)

$

(0.49

)

$

(0.31

)

$

(0.33

)

$

(0.20

)

$

(0.07

)

$

(0.92

)

 

Source: Oak Tree management and Paradigm Capital.

 

13



 

Projected Cash Flow

($ in millions)

 

                  Oak Tree expects to utilize significant cash reserves to fund its growth initiatives

 

                  Oak Tree will need additional financing in the near-term which may not be available at attractive terms

 

 

 

Summary Cash Flow

 

 

 

Plan

 

Plan

 

Plan

 

Plan

 

Plan

 

Stretch Plan

 

Q1

 

Q2

 

Q3

 

Q4

 

2006

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Forecasted Cash

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Opening Balance

 

$

9.5

 

$

6.9

 

$

5.4

 

$

4.7

 

$

9.5

 

EBITDA

 

(1.5

)

(0.3

)

0.3

 

1.6

 

0.1

 

Capital

 

(0.1

)

(0.2

)

(0.1

)

(0.2

)

(0.6

)

Interest *

 

 

 

 

 

 

Working Capital Items

 

(1.0

)

(1.0

)

(0.9

)

(0.8

)

(3.7

)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Ending Balance

 

$

6.9

 

$

5.4

 

$

4.7

 

$

5.3

 

$

5.3

 

 


* assumes paid in shares

 

 

 

Summary Cash Flow

 

 

 

Plan

 

Plan

 

Plan

 

Plan

 

Plan

 

High Probability Plan

 

Q1

 

Q2

 

Q3

 

Q4

 

2006

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Forecasted Cash

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Opening Balance

 

$

9.5

 

$

6.8

 

$

5.0

 

$

3.6

 

$

9.5

 

EBITDA

 

(1.5

)

(1.6

)

(0.9

)

(0.0

)

(4.1

)

Capital

 

(0.1

)

(0.2

)

(0.1

)

(0.2

)

(0.6

)

Interest *

 

 

 

 

 

 

Working Capital Items

 

(1.0

)

 

(0.5

)

(0.5

)

(2.0

)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Ending Balance

 

$

6.8

 

$

5.0

 

$

3.6

 

$

2.8

 

$

2.8

 

 


* assumes paid in shares

 

Source: Oak Tree management.

 

14



 

Valuation Analysis of Oak Tree

 

 

 

Thomas Weisel Partners

 

MERCHANT BANKING

 

Champions of Growth

 



 

Valuation Summary

($ in millions, except per share data)

 

                  The proposed offer price implies a fully diluted value of $29.1 million

 

 

 

 

 

At Market

 

At Transaction

 

Share Price

 

 

 

$

3.26

(6)

$

3.34

 

% below 52 Week High

 

 

 

80

%

79

%

% above 52 Week Low

 

 

 

56

%

60

%

Premium / (Discount) to Market

 

 

 

 

 

2.5

%

Value

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Equity Value (Including options based on treasury stock and AV converts)

 

 

 

$

28.3

 

$

29.1

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Plus: Total Debt (2)

 

 

 

0.0

 

0.0

 

Less: Cash & Equivalents (3)

 

 

 

4.7

 

4.7

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Enterprise Value (4)

 

 

 

$

23.6

 

$

24.4

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Metric

 

 

 

 

 

Multiples

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Enterprise Value / Revenues

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

LTM (12/31/05)

 

$

18.3

 

1.3

x

1.3

x

CY 2006 E (5)

 

15.7

 

1.5

x

1.6

x

CY 2006 E (7)

 

18.1

 

1.3

x

1.3

x

CY 2006 E (8)

 

24.0

 

1.0

x

1.0

x

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Metric

 

 

 

 

 

Price / Earnings (5)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

CY 2006 E

 

$

(0.94

)

N.M.

 

N.M.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Premiums / Discounts

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

% D from Average Stock Price

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

1 Week

 

$

3.24

 

0.7

%

3.2

%

2 Weeks

 

3.24

 

0.8

%

3.2

%

3 Weeks

 

3.24

 

0.5

%

2.9

%

Since Q4 Earnings Announcement (Feb 17th)

 

3.34

 

(2.4

)%

(0.0

)%

Feb 17th to Feb 27th (AV Announcement)

 

3.58

 

(9.0

)%

(6.8

)%

1 Month

 

3.28

 

(0.5

)%

2.0

%

3 Months

 

3.65

 

(10.7

)%

(8.5

)%

6 Months

 

3.78

 

(13.7

)%

(11.6

)%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Equity Value Not Owned by AV and affiliates (excluding out of the money options and AV converts)

 

$

18.0

 

$

18.5

 

 


(1)   Diluted shares outstanding calculated using the treasury stock method for options and including converts from management dated 12/31/05.

 

(2)   Debt consists of short and long term debt. In the money converts treated as equity.

 

(3)   Assumes cash of $4.7 million based on Oak Tree Stretch Plan cash balance at breakeven in Q3-06 and full conversion of AV debt.

 

(4)   Enterprise value equals equity value plus total debt net of cash and equivalents.

 

(5)   First Call consensus estimates.

 

(6)   Current stock price as of 3/31/2006.

 

(7)   Management estimate (High Probability Plan).

 

(8)   Management estimate (Stretch Plan).

 

16



 

Overview of Assumptions

 

                  We have analyzed a number of quantitative methodologies that we deem relevant for this transaction

 

Selected public companies analysis

 

                  Analysis of market valuations for relevant peer group of communications software companies

 

                  Review of historical and projected trading multiples

 

                  Multiples applied to Oak Tree’s projected operating results to determine the implied values and price per share

 

Selected transactions analysis

 

                  Analysis of pricing of relevant software transactions between $10 million and $50 million in value since January 2005

 

                  Review of historical and projected revenue multiples paid in precedent transactions

 

                  Multiples applied to Oak Tree historical and projected revenue projections to determine implied values and price per share

 

Premiums paid analysis

 

                  Analysis of premiums paid in technology “going private” transactions since January 2002

 

                  Apply relevant price premiums to Oak Tree’s stock price to determine implied values

 

General Assumptions

 

                  Net debt based on management projected net debt to reach break-even in Q3 2006

 

                  Assumes no taxes

 

17



 

Summary Valuation

 

 

18



 

Valuation Detail

 

($ in millions, except per share data)

 

 

 

Oak Tree

 

Valuation Multiples

 

Implied Agg. Value

 

Implied Eq. Value (3)

 

Implied Price Per Share

 

 

 

Estimates

 

Low

 

-

Median

 

Low

-

High

 

Low

-

High

 

Low

-

High

 

Selected Public Companies

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

CY 2005 Revenue(1)

 

$

18.3

 

0.3

x

-

1.1

x

$

6

-

$

20

 

$

10

-

$

24

 

$

1.18

-

$

2.80

 

CY 2006E Revenue (Street) (2)

 

15.7

 

0.4

x

-

1.0

x

6

-

16

 

10

-

20

 

1.19

-

2.33

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

CY 2006E Revenue (Mgmt High Probability)

 

$

18.1

 

0.4

x

-

1.0

x

$

7

-

$

18

 

$

11

-

$

23

 

$

1.29

-

$

2.61

 

CY 2006E Revenue (Mgmt Stretch Plan)

 

24.0

 

0.4

x

-

1.0

x

9

-

24

 

13

-

28

 

1.54

-

3.28

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Selected Transactions

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

LTM Revenue (1)

 

$

18.3

 

0.5

x

-

2.4

x

$

9

-

$

45

 

$

14

-

$

49

 

$

1.59

-

$

5.52

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

NTM Revenue (Street) (2)

 

$

15.7

 

0.4

x

-

3.3

x

$

7

-

$

51

 

$

11

-

$

56

 

$

1.31

-

$

6.18

 

NTM Revenue (Mgmt High Probability)

 

18.1

 

0.4

x

-

3.3

x

8

-

59

 

12

-

64

 

1.43

-

6.96

 

NTM Revenue (Mgmt Stretch Plan)

 

24.0

 

0.4

x

 

3.3

x

10

 

78

 

15

 

83

 

1.72

-

8.87

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Premiums Paid - Based on Latest Close

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

One Day Average – Stock Price

 

$

3.26

 

(7.6

)%

-

11.9

%

$

21

-

$

27

 

$

26

-

$

32

 

$

3.01

-

$

3.65

 

One Week Average – Stock Price

 

3.24

 

(7.4

)%

-

14.6

%

21

-

28

 

26

-

33

 

2.99

-

3.71

 

One Month Average – Stock Price

 

3.65

 

(11.7

)%

-

16.8

%

23

-

33

 

28

-

37

 

3.22

-

4.27

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Premiums Paid - Based on 2/27 Close (AV Announcement)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

One Day Average – Stock Price

 

$

3.59

 

(7.6

)%

-

11.9

%

$

24

-

$

30

 

$

29

-

$

35

 

$

3.32

-

$

4.02

 

One Week Average – Stock Price

 

3.57

 

(7.4

)%

-

14.6

%

24

-

31

 

29

-

36

 

3.31

-

4.09

 

One Month Average – Stock Price

 

3.93

 

(11.7

)%

-

16.8

%

26

-

36

 

30

-

41

 

3.47

-

4.60

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Average Range

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

$

14

 

$

35

 

$

19

 

$

40

 

$

2.19

 

$

4.49

 

 


Note: Ranges based on low to median multiples. LTM period equals 12-months ended 12/31/05; NTM period, 12-months ended 12/31/06.

(1)     Actual through 12/31/05.

(2)     Source: Based on First Call consensus estimates as of 4/2/06.

(3)     Assumes Oak Tree net debt of ($4.7) million based on Oak Tree Stretch Plan cash balance at breakeven in Q3-06 and full conversion of AV debt.

 

19



 

Comparable Companies Analysis

 

($ in millions, except per share data)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Stock Price

 

Market Value

 

Rev. Growth

 

CY06 Margins

 

Valuation Multiples

 

 

 

Price

 

Above

 

Below

 

Equity

 

Net

 

Agg

 

Revenue

 

P/E

 

Company

 

3/31/06

 

Low

 

High

 

Value

 

Debt

 

Value

 

CY 06

 

CY 07

 

Gross

 

EBIT

 

CY 05

 

CY 06

 

CY 07

 

CY 05

 

CY 06

 

CY 07

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

ACE*COMM

 

$

2.77

 

40

%

25

%

$

50

 

$

2

 

$

52

 

N.A.

 

N.A.

 

N.A.

 

N.A.

 

2.2

x

N.A.

 

N.A.

 

N.M.

 

N.A.

 

N.A.

 

AsiaInfo

 

5.00

 

42

%

19

%

231

 

(149

)

82

 

N.A.

 

N.A.

 

N.A.

 

N.A.

 

0.9

x

N.A.

 

N.A.

 

N.M.

 

N.A.

 

N.A.

 

Boston Communications

 

2.65

 

205

%

64

%

48

 

(17

)

32

 

(16

)%

N.A.

 

N.A.

 

N.A.

 

0.3

x

0.4

x

N.A.

 

N.M.

 

N.M.

 

N.A.

 

CallWave

 

4.46

 

21

%

31

%

97

 

(62

)

35

 

(19

)%

N.A.

 

59

%

(13

)%

0.8

x

1.0

x

N.A.

 

24.8

x

N.M.

 

N.A.

 

MetaSolv Software

 

3.06

 

75

%

13

%

157

 

(58

)

99

 

9

%

11

%

57

%

5

%

1.1

x

1.0

x

0.9

x

N.M.

 

25.5

x

19.1

x

NMS Communications

 

3.75

 

49

%

14

%

200

 

(62

)

138

 

12

%

14

%

62

%

6

%

1.3

x

1.1

x

1.0

x

37.5

x

28.8

x

17.9

x

TeleCommunication Systems

 

2.56

 

33

%

20

%

102

 

7

 

109

 

9

%

12

%

43

%

1

%

1.1

x

1.0

x

0.9

x

N.M.

 

10.2

x

15.1

x

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

High

 

 

 

205

%

64

%

 

 

 

 

 

 

12

%

14

%

62

%

6

%

2.2

x

1.1

x

1.0

x

37.5

x

28.8

x

19.1

x

Overall 3rd Quartile

 

 

 

62

%

28

%

 

 

 

 

 

 

9

%

13

%

60

%

6

%

1.2

x

1.0

x

0.9

x

34.3

x

27.2

x

18.5

x

Overall Mean

 

 

 

66

%

27

%

 

 

 

 

 

 

(1

)%

12

%

55

%

(0

)%

1.1

x

0.9

x

0.9

x

31.1

x

21.5

x

17.3

x

Overall Median

 

 

 

42

%

20

%

 

 

 

 

 

 

9

%

12

%

58

%

3

%

1.1

x

1.0

x

0.9

x

31.1

x

25.5

x

17.9

x

Overall 1st Quartile

 

 

 

37

%

17

%

 

 

 

 

 

 

(16

)%

11

%

54

%

(3

)%

0.8

x

1.0

x

0.9

x

28.0

x

17.9

x

16.5

x

Low

 

 

 

21

 

13

%

 

 

 

 

 

 

(19

)%

11

%

43

%

(13

)%

0.3

x

0.4

x

0.9

x

24.8

x

10.2

x

15.1

x

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Oak Tree

 

$

3.26

 

56

%

78

%

$

28

 

$

(10

)

$

19

 

(14

)%

26

%

N.A.

 

N.A.

 

1.0

x

1.2

x

1.0

x

N.M.

 

N.M.

 

N.M.

 

 

Note: Data excludes all extraordinary items, nonrecurring charges and merger-related expenses.

Source: Revenue, EPS and Long Term Growth est. from First Call. Gross & EBIT margins from Wall Street research.

 

20



 

Selected Transactions Analysis ($10MM - $50MM)*

 

($ in millions, except per share data)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Transaction Multiples

 

 

 

 

 

Equity

 

Aggregate

 

LTM

 

NTM

 

Date

 

Name

 

Value

 

Value

 

Revenue

 

Revenue

 

3/19/06

 

Wavecom/

 

$

39

 

$

39

 

0.5

x

0.4

x

 

 

Sony Ericsson M2M Communications Business

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Target Description: Provider of wireless communications platforms for automotive, industrial and mobile professional applications

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2/15/06

 

Macrovision/

 

35

 

35

 

N.A.

 

2.9

x

 

 

eMeta

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Target Description: Provider of software solutions that enamble companies to control and sell digital goods and services online

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

1/19/06

 

Progress Software/

 

32

 

32

 

N.A.

 

10.7

x

 

 

Actional Corp.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Target Description: Provider of web services management software

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

1/6/06

 

Actuate/

 

17

 

17

 

1.7

x

N.A.

 

 

 

Performancesoft

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Target Description: Provider of performance management and dashboard software solutions and services

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

12/1/05

 

Digital River/

 

45

 

45

 

7.4

x

4.2

x

 

 

Commerce5

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Target Description: Provider of outsourced e-commerce services

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

11/22/05

 

Click Commerce/

 

20

 

20

 

N.A.

 

3.3

x

 

 

Requisite Technology

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Target Description: Provider of business software solutions for manufacturers

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

10/17/05

 

CA/

 

50

 

50

 

2.5

x

N.A.

 

 

 

iLumin

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Target Description: Provider of email archiving software

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

10/4/05

 

Business Objects/

 

40

 

40

 

4.0

x

N.A.

 

 

 

Infommersion

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Target Description: Provider of information visualization and presentation software

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

9/7/05

 

F5 Networks/

 

43

 

43

 

N.A.

 

4.8

x

 

 

Swan Labs

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Target Description: Provider of WAN optimization technology

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

8/17/05

 

Interwoven/

 

16

 

16

 

2.1

x

N.A.

 

 

 

Scrittura

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Target Description: Provider of automation technology and processing for financial services institutions

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

8/16/05

 

Phase Forward/

 

11

 

11

 

2.4

x

N.A.

 

 

 

Lincoln Technologies

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Target Description: Provider of clinical trial data solutions

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

8/11/05

 

Manhattan Associates/

 

50

 

50

 

2.5

x

N.A.

 

 

 

Evant

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Target Description: Provider of advanced supply chain management solutions

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

8/3/05

 

SumTotal/

 

48

 

48

 

N.A.

 

1.6

x

 

 

Pathlore Software

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Target Description: Provider of learning management solutions

 

 

 

 


*Since 1/1/2005.

Note: Multiples sourced from public filings

 

21



 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Transaction Multiples

 

 

 

 

 

Equity

 

Aggregate

 

LTM

 

NTM

 

Date

 

Name

 

Value

 

Value

 

Revenue

 

Revenue

 

7/26/05

 

Macrovision/

 

34

 

34

 

N.A.

 

2.5

x

 

 

Trymedia

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Target Description: Provider of a downloadable games distribution network

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

7/12/05

 

NAVTEQ/

 

29

 

29

 

2.0

x

N.A.

 

 

 

Picture Map Inc

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Target Description: Provider of a comprehensive geographic database of South Korea

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

6/20/05

 

Amdocs/

 

30

 

30

 

N.A.

 

N.A.

 

 

 

Longshine

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Provider of billing, customer care and settlement systems in China

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

4/12/05

 

NICE Systems/

 

39

 

39

 

N.A.

 

0.9

x

 

 

CRS

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Target Description: Provider of recording platforms used by First Response teams

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

4/6/05

 

Progress Software/

 

25

 

25

 

N.A.

 

6.3

x

 

 

Apama

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Target Description: Provider of event stream processing technology to financial firms

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

4/1/05

 

Retalix/

 

34

 

34

 

1.6

x

N.A.

 

 

 

TCI Solutions

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Target Description: Provider of strategic pricing and inventory management solutions for the grocery industry

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

4/1/05

 

Retalix/

 

44

 

44

 

N.A.

 

N.A.

 

 

 

Integrated Distribution Systems

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Target Description: Provider of enterprise resource planning solutions for the food retail supply chain

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

3/23/05

 

BMC Software/

 

18

 

18

 

N.A.

 

N.A.

 

 

 

OpenNetwork

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Target Description: Provider of web access management products

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2/8/05

 

WebSideStory/

 

40

 

40

 

N.A.

 

3.8

x

 

 

Avivo (Atomz)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Target Description: Provider of digital marketing services, focused on site-search and web content management

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2/7/05

 

Click Commerce/

 

30

 

35

 

N.A.

 

N.A.

 

 

 

Optum Inc.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Provider of on-demand supply chain execution solutions

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2/4/05

 

Agile/

 

42

 

42

 

2.5

x

N.A.

 

 

 

Cimmetry Systems

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Target Description: Provider of collaborative visulization software

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

1/10/05

 

BMC Software/

 

33

 

33

 

N.A.

 

N.A.

 

 

 

Calendra

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Target Description: Provider of directory management and workflow software

 

 

High

 

7.4

x

10.7

x

3rd Quartile

 

2.5

x

4.5

x

Median

 

2.4

x

3.3

x

Mean

 

2.7

x

3.8

x

1st Quartile

 

1.8

x

2.1

x

Low

 

0.5

x

0.4

x

 


*Since 1/1/2005.

Note: Multiples sourced from public filings

 

22



 

Premiums Paid Analysis (Since 1/1/2002)

 

($ in millions)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Average

 

Announce

 

 

 

 

 

Equity (2)

 

% Stock Premium

 

Date

 

Target Name

 

Acquiror Name

 

Value ($mm)

 

1 Day

 

1 Week

 

1 Month

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

11/14/2005

 

Enterasys Networks

 

The Gores Group

 

$

383

 

31.7

%

32.2

%

136.6

%

11/11/2005

 

Serena Software

 

Silver Lake Partners

 

1,026

 

1.5

%

4.2

%

14.0

%

11/6/2005

 

Geac Computer

 

Golden Gate Capital

 

1,003

 

25.1

%

25.3

%

24.1

%

8/9/2005

 

Register.com (1)

 

Vector Capital

 

197

 

21.1

%

19.6

%

27.3

%

7/29/2005

 

MDSI Mobile Data Solutions

 

Vista Equity Partners

 

70

 

55.3

%

61.5

%

61.6

%

7/5/2005

 

Aspect Software

 

Concerto Software

 

1,065

 

3.6

%

3.5

%

10.8

%

5/16/2005

 

iPayment

 

Investor Group

 

800

 

20.4

%

14.6

%

4.8

%

3/1/2005

 

Blue Martini Software

 

Golden Gate Capital

 

53

 

63.3

%

75.3

%

68.8

%

1/27/2005

 

Mapics

 

Infor Global Solutions

 

347

 

9.7

%

13.3

%

16.8

%

1/4/2005

 

Tecnomatix Technologies

 

UGS

 

229

 

11.9

%

14.3

%

25.9

%

7/20/2004

 

QRS

 

Investor Group

 

109

 

7.5

%

25.6

%

14.9

%

6/29/2004

 

Catalyst International

 

ComVest Investment Partners

 

20

 

92.3

%

88.0

%

82.0

%

10/9/2003

 

Firepond

 

Jaguar Technology Holdings

 

12

 

(7.6

)%

(7.4

)%

(11.7

)%

10/7/2003

 

Concerto Software

 

Golden Gate Capital

 

141

 

28.9

%

30.6

%

28.5

%

6/29/2003

 

Information Resources

 

Investor Group

 

91

 

3.1

%

4.2

%

3.6

%

6/6/2003

 

Corel

 

Vector Capital

 

96

 

9.3

%

8.7

%

15.8

%

6/5/2003

 

Made2Manage Systems

 

Battery Ventures

 

31

 

35.7

%

40.3

%

40.2

%

5/30/2003

 

Cysive

 

Investor Group

 

75

 

0.6

%

0.2

%

5.2

%

1/21/2003

 

Resonate

 

Gores Technology Group

 

53

 

7.1

%

8.1

%

14.1

%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Average

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Equity

 

% Stock Premium

 

 

 

 

 

Transactions Since 1/1/02

 

Value ($mm)

 

1 Day

 

1 Week

 

1 Month

 

 

 

 

 

High

 

$

1,065

 

92.3

%

88.0

%

136.6

%

 

 

 

 

3rd Quartile

 

365

 

30.3

%

31.4

%

34.3

%

 

 

 

 

Mean

 

305

 

22.1

%

24.3

%

30.7

%

 

 

 

 

Median

 

109

 

11.9

%

14.6

%

16.8

%

 

 

 

 

1st Quartile

 

62

 

5.3

%

6.2

%

12.4

%

 

 

 

 

Low

 

12

 

(7.6

)%

(7.4

)%

(11.7

)%

 


Note: Based on technology going private cash acquisitions >$10MM.

Source: Securities Data Corporation.

(1) Register.com premiums based on unaffected stock price on 6/9/2005.

(2) Equity Value of transaction excludes value of shares already held by the acquiror.

 

23