Mr. Tamir Amar
Chief Financial Officer
Tel: +972-54-781-4951
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Ms. Liat Glazer Shaft
Head of Investor Relations & Corporate Projects
Tel: +972-54-781-5051
E-mail: investors@partner.co.il
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Research Update
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August 5, 2019 |
1
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Partner Communications Company Ltd.
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•
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Following continued intense competition in the Israeli communication market, Partner Communications Company Ltd.’s
(“Partner”) operating performance continued to weaken in 2018, as reflected, inter alia, by a decrease in EBITDA.
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As we estimate that intense competition will prevail in the entire communication market, we expect further erosion in the
Company’s operating performance in 2019-2020, leading to adjusted profitability (EBITDA margin) below 20%.
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We believe the Company’s extensive investments in the fiber optics project will lead to low to negative free cash flow and
erode the Company’s cash reserves, but are expected to support its business risk profile in the long term.
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We expect the Company’s leverage to increase in 2019-2020, but remain low compared with peers.
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On August 5, 2019, we affirmed our ‘ilA+’ rating on Partner Communications Company Ltd. and updated theoutlook to negative
from stable. We also affirmed our ‘ilA+’ rating on the Company’s bond series.
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The negative outlook reflects our expectation that the Company’s operating performance will continue to weaken, as
reflected in a decrease in operating profitability, as a result of competitive market conditions in all of the Company’s segments of operation. The negative outlook also reflects our assessment that the numerous investments the Company
plans in the next few years may erode its cash reserves and lead to a low to negative free cash flow from operations in the next 12 months.
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www.maalot.co.il
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August 5, 2019 | 2
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Partner Communications Company Ltd.
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www.maalot.co.il
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August 5, 2019 |3
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Partner Communications Company Ltd.
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A 3%-5% decrease in revenues in 2019 due to lower revenues in the mobile segment.
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Continued decline in EBITDA due to market competition in all segments of operations and expected growth in content
and marketing expenses.
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Capital expenditures of about NIS 600 million – NIS 650 million per year in 2019-2020.
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Low to negative free cash flow.
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Adjusted debt to EBITDA of 3x-4x in 2019-2020.
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FFO (funds from operations) to adjusted debt of 20%-30% in 2019-2020.
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Cash and liquid investments of about NIS 600 million;
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Cash flow from operations of about NIS 500 million – NIS 560 million;
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www.maalot.co.il
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August 5, 2019 |4
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Partner Communications Company Ltd.
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Debt issuance of about NIS 275 million in December 2019
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Debt maturities of about NIS 160 million;
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Maintenance capital expenditures of about NIS 200 million.
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We are affirming our ‘ilA+’ rating, identical to the issuer rating, on Partner’s unsecured bond series (Series D,F, G). The
recovery rating for these series is '3'.
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Our recovery prospect assessment is limited to the 50%-70% despite the simplified waterfall, due to or assessment that on
the path to default the Company will exchange unsecured debt for secured or senior debt.
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Hypothetic year of default: 2023
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A recession in the Israeli economy will lead to a decrease in consumption, to an increase in churn rates and to increased
competition in most segments, adversely affecting the Company's cash flows and liquidity, such that it is unable to meet its debt service payments.
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As one of the Israeli communication market leaders, the Company will continue operating as a going concern, and undergo
reorganization.
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EBITDA at emergence: about NIS 265 million
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EBITDA multiple: 6.0x
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Gross enterprise value as going concern: about NIS 1,590 million
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Administrative costs: 5%
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Net value available to unsecured creditors: about NIS 1,510 million
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Unsecured debt claims: about NIS 1,465 million
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Unsecured debt recovery expectation: 50%-70% (constrained as noted above)
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Unsecured debt recover rating (1 to 6): 3
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www.maalot.co.il
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August 5, 2019 |5
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Partner Communications Company Ltd.
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Mapping Recovery Percentages To Recovery Ratings - Group A Jurisdiction
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For issuers with a speculative-grade issuer credit rating |
Nominal recovery expectations |
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Recovery rating* | Recovery description | Greater than or equal to |
Less than | Issue rating notches relative to ICR |
1+
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Highest expectation, full recovery
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100% |
N/A
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+3 notches
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1
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Very high recovery
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90% |
100%
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+2 notches
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2
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Substantial recovery
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70% |
90%
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+1 notch
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3
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Meaningful recovery
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50% |
70%
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0 notches
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4
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Average recovery
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30% |
50%
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0 notches
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5
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Modest recovery
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10% |
30%
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-1 notch
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6
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Negligible recovery
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0% |
10%
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-2 notch
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•
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Use Of CreditWatch And
Outlooks, September 14, 2009
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•
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Methodology: Management And
Governance Credit Factors For Corporate Entities And Insurers, November 13, 2012
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Meth odology: Timeliness Of
Payments : Grace Periods , Guarantees , And Use Of ‘D’ And ‘ SD ’ Ratings , October 24, 2013
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Corporate Methodology, November 19, 2013
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Country Risk Assessment
Methodology And Assumptions, November 19,
2013
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Methodology: Industry Risk, November 19, 2013
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Key Credit Factors For The
Telecommunications And Cable Industry, June
22, 2014
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Methodology And Assumptions:
Liquidity Descriptors For Global Corporate Issuers, December 16, 2014
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Recovery Rating Criteria For
Speculative-Grade Corporate Issuers, December
7, 2016
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•
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Methodology For National And
Regional Scale Credit Ratings, June 25,
2018
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Corporate Methodology: Ratios
And Adjustments, April 1, 2019
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Group Rating Methodology, July 1, 2019
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S&P Global Ratings
Definitions, October 31, 2018
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Rating Detail (As of 1-August-2019)
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Partner Communications Company Ltd.
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Issuer Credit Rating(s)
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Local Currency Long Term
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ilA+/Negative
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Issue Rating(s)
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Senior Unsecured Debt
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Series D,F,G
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ilA+
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Rating History
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Local Currency Long Term
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August 05, 2019
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ilA+/Negative
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July 28, 2015
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ilA+/Stable
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June 20, 2013
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ilAA-/Stable
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December 06, 2012
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ilAA-/Negative
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September 10, 2012
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ilAA-/Watch Neg
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October 19, 2010
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ilAA-/Negative
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October 05, 2009
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ilAA-/Stable
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September 17, 2009
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ilAA-
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July 14, 2009
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ilAA-/Watch Dev
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March 24, 2009
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ilAA-/Watch Pos
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October 28, 2008
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ilAA-/Stable
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September 25, 2007
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ilAA-/Positive
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March 20, 2007
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ilAA-/Stable
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July 28, 2004
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ilAA-
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February 16, 2004
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ilA+
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August 01, 2003
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ilA
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Other Details
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Time of the event
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05/08/2019 16:46
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Time when the analyst first learned of the event
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05/08/2019 16:46
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Rating requested by
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Issuer
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www.maalot.co.il
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August 5, 2019 |7
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Partner Communications Company Ltd.
|
www.maalot.co.il
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August 5, 2019 |8
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Partner Communications Company Ltd.
By: /s/ Tamir Amar
Name: Tamir Amar
Title: Chief
Financial Officer
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