EX-99.2 3 ex99_2.htm EX99.2 ex99.2
Exhibit 99.2
2006 & 2007 Earnings Guidance
December 14, 2007
 
 

 
Forward-Looking Statements
Statements contained or incorporated by reference in these slides regarding
future events and developments are “forward-looking statements” within the
meaning of Section 27A of the Securities Act of 1933.  Forward-looking
statements are based on management’s beliefs and assumptions that derive from
information currently known by management.  Because such statements are
based on expectations and not historical facts, actual results may differ materially
from those projected in the particular statements. Readers are cautioned not to
place undue reliance on these forward-looking statements, which speak only as
of the date of this document, or in the case of documents incorporated by
reference, as of the date of those documents. 
Additional detailed information concerning a number of factors that could cause
actual results to differ materially from the information that is provided to you here
is readily available in our annual report on Form 10-K filed with the Securities and
Exchange Commission on February 16, 2006.
 
Contact:
Vectren Corporation
Steven M. Schein
VP – Investor Relations
812-491-4209
sschein@vectren.com
 
 

 
2007 EPS Growth
Ø
Indiana/Ohio conservation orders in
place full year
Ø
South electric and gas rate cases
implemented in late summer
Ø
~ 8% growth in Operations EPS –
excluding settlement between
ProLiance and Huntsville
Earnings Guidance
2006 EPS
Ø
Initial Guidance
Vectren Operations - $1.59 to $1.78
Synfuels -  $0.16 to $0.17
Total - $1.75 to $1.95
Ø
Nonrecurring Items
Synfuel loss – ($0.04) to ($0.05)
ProLiance/Huntsville Settlement – ($0.09)
 
 

 
Ø
Decoupling/conservation orders in place in Indiana and Ohio
Incremental margin impact of $8 to $12 million depending on average
customer use
Ø
2006 O & M savings of $1.5 million related to AMT project
Continued implementation of Asset Management Transformation (AMT)
project designed to reduce costs by $9 million annually by 2010
Ø
Expanded ProLiance gas storage
5 Bcf of Liberty Gas Storage capacity to be fully operational in 2007
Invested in additional capacity near Liberty Gas Storage and leased storage
from Texas Gas & Heartland Pipeline
Ø
Acquired access to 80 million tons of coal reserves
2 underground mines to be fully operational by 2011
Ø
Continued to narrow focus of nonutility businesses
Acquired 100% of Miller Pipeline, exited meter reading and line locating
businesses and sold broadband investment
Doing What We Said
 
 

 
Ø
Recent regulatory approvals
Timely recovery of environmental expenditures – Senate Bill 29
NOx - $255 million – Aug 2001
Multi-pollutant - $110 million – Feb 2006
Normal Temperature Adjustment – Indiana – Oct 2005
ProLiance service agreement extended through 2011 – Apr 2006
Ohio Conservation/Decoupling order – Sep 2006
Indiana Conservation/Decoupling order – Dec 2006
Ø
Current regulatory initiatives
South gas and electric rate cases filed – Sep 2006
Expect orders to be in place late summer 2007
Settlements achieved last 3 gas rate cases
Equitable Regulatory Environment
 
 

 
Conservation Orders In Place
Ø
align u
Indiana and Ohio Commissions approved Vectren rate mechanisms that
tility and customers by promoting conservation
IURC approval on December 1, 2006 – North gas territory – 550,000
customers
PUCO approval on September 13, 2006 – Ohio gas territory – 315,000
customers
Expect approval for South gas territory via base rate filing – 110,000
customers
Ø
Comprehensive conservation programs to benefit customers in Indiana
and Ohio
Ø
New conservation oriented rates designed to stabilize gas utility gross
margin from declining usage by providing Vectren the opportunity to
recover the costs approved in last rate orders
Actual customer usage will be compared to average use per customer (AUPC)
approved in last general rate order
The difference between actual AUPC (weather normalized) and approved
AUPC will be recognized as margin recovered or to be refunded
Ø
2006 decline in residential AUPC ~ 14% from last rate cases
Ø
2007 estimated incremental revenue between $8 and $12 million
 
 

 
Future Presents Opportunity
Ø
Growing gas and electric utility
5% rate base growth
Ø
Equitable regulatory decisions
Conservation tariffs in Indiana & Ohio
NTA in Indiana
Senate Bill 29 recovery of environmental expenditures
Ø
Successful nonutility operations
3 business segments - closely linked to core utility operations
3 year CAGR of over 18%
Targeted future growth of 10%+ achievable
Ø
Strong financial profile
S&P: A-  and  Moody’s: Baa1
Ø
Superior dividend record
47 consecutive years increased dividends - 12/1/06 increase of 3.3%
Ø
Attractive total shareholder return
Target 9 to 10%
 
 

 
2007 Utility Outlook
Ø
~ 6% EPS growth in utility operations
Ø
5 year rate base growth - 5% CAGR
Ø
Conservation/Decoupling orders stabilize earnings & reduce risk
Ø
Rate increases for Indiana South gas and electric territories by
late summer
Ø
Rate increases and progressive regulatory approaches will be
pursued to achieve allowed returns at each utility  
 
 

 
Ø
South Electric Rate Relief
Pre-hearing conference estimated order date - September 11, 2007
2007 Margin impact - $7 to $11 million
FERC approved rates for new transmission expenditures
Proposed 50/50 sharing above or below $10.5 million Wholesale Power
Marketing margin
Senate Bill 29 recovery expected to continue
Ø
South Gas Rate Relief
Pre-hearing conference estimated order date - August 1, 2007
2007 Margin impact - $3 to $4 million
Conservation/Decoupling mechanism to be implemented
Bare steel/Cast iron tracker for new expenditures
2007 Rate Relief Effective Late Summer
 
 

 
2007 Gas Utility Margin Growth
Key Assumptions
Ø
Indiana and Ohio Conservation/Decoupling orders in place in 2006
Ø
South gas rate case & decoupling achieved in late summer
Ø
NTA in place in Indiana, normal weather in Ohio
~ $400,000 of margin at risk per +/- 1% of normal HDD
Ø
Residential customer growth ~ 1%
Ø
Large customer margins flat year over year
 
 

 
2007 Electric Utility Margin Growth
Key Assumptions
Ø
Continued recovery of Senate Bill 29 environmental expenditures
Ø
South electric rate case achieved in late summer
Ø
Normal weather
~ $100,000 of margin at risk per +/- 1% of normal HDD
~ $300,000 of margin at risk per +/- 1% of normal CDD
Ø
Residential customer growth ~ 1%
Ø
Large customer margins flat year over year
 
 

 
2007 Other Utility Projections
Key Assumptions
Ø
O & M growth below 3%
Ø
Depreciation ~ 8% - growing capital expenditures plus amortization
Ø
Interest ~ 3% - higher short-term debt balances
Ø
Effective tax rate for 2007 ~39%
 
 

 
Ø
Earnings growth based on significant capital expenditures
Timely recovery through rate relief or tracking
Rate base grows at 5% CAGR through 2011
Ø
Senate Bill 29 recovery for multi-pollutant continues and expected for
new generation
Ø
Requesting tracking recovery of Bare steel/Cast iron programs
VUHI Capital Expenditures
 
 

 
5.2% Rate Base Growth
VUHI Capital Structure
Common
Equity
Long-Term Debt
45%
45%
10%
2006
Estimate
1) Includes customer deposits, ITC,
deferred taxes and other.
Other 1
2006 Rate Base ($mm)
North - Gas$   761
Ohio - Gas
$   257
South - Gas$   119
South - Electric
$1,018
Growing Rate Base (2006-2011)
 
 

 
Ø
Disciplined growth
Ø
Reinvest earnings in primary businesses
Ø
Develop gas storage opportunities
Ø
Develop and market new coal reserves
Ø
Grow Energy Infrastructure Services
Ø
Target 10%+ annual growth from key operating companies
Proven Success with Operating Companies
 
 

 
Ø
Grow leased or owned storage capacity
Added 2 Bcf of seasonal storage for winter of ’06-’07
Will add 6 Bcf high deliverability storage plus another 4 Bcf of seasonal
storage for the winter of ’07-’08
Hedged storage spreads for winter of ’06-’07 exceed expectations
20% of seasonal summer/winter spreads ’07-’08 are currently hedged
Ø
Invest in gas midstream assets
Heartland Gas Pipeline started service in late ’06
Liberty Gas Storage Phase I to be completed in the 2nd quarter of ’07
Liberty expansion in planning stage and expected to be filed with FERC in
’07
Ø
Grow wholesale and retail gas marketing business
Number one ranking in ’06 Mastiogale annual customer satisfaction survey
~95% customer retention in ’06
ProLiance Energy
 
 

 
Ø
Grow revenue
90+% of coal is pre-sold for ’07
4 to 5% average price increase in ’07 locked in
Mine an additional 200,000 tons in ’07
Ø
Manage costs
40+% of diesel fuel planned for ’07 is hedged below average ’06 costs
Full year of more efficient high wall mining at Cypress Creek in ’07
Ø
Develop new mines
Expect permit approvals to build out Oaktown Fuels Mines #1 and #2 in
’07
Planning to break ground for new mines in late ’07
Expect new production to start in ’09, reaching 5 million tons per year by
2011
With Prosperity Mine continuing and Cypress Creek depleted, total annual
production will reach 8 million tons
Mining Operations
 
 

 
Ø
Grow performance contracting (construction) business
Record sales year in ’06 will lead to record year-end backlog of $65+ million
New offices adding business in the Mid-Atlantic and South
Continued focus on energy conservation in the public sector will continue
Ø
Grow operations business
Added new operating agreement with Baltimore Public Schools in ’06
Negotiating for two new large operating agreements to become effective in
’07
Use operating agreements to facilitate repeat performance contracting
business
Ø
Grow renewable energy business
Completed landfill gas project in Johnson City, TN in late ’06
Right to develop sizable landfill gas project in the southeast for ’08
production
Acting as project manager for waste to energy project in St. Lucie County, FL
Energy Systems Group
 
 

 
Ø
Grow through acquisition
Completed purchase of remaining 50% of Miller from Duke Energy in ’06
Made two small Midwestern acquisitions in ’06
Look for additional small complementary acquisitions
Ø
Grow through existing customer penetration and territory expansion
Entered new market segments for two large East Coast customers
Construction of new mains and services and cast iron replacement
Adding distribution maintenance crews in the East and South
Continued focus on transmission construction
Ø
Positioned to grow through aging infrastructure replacement
Bare steel and cast iron replacement programs
Mandated pipeline and likely distribution integrity programs
EPA mandated upgrades in storm and waste-water sewer systems
Miller Pipeline
 
 

 
Synfuels
Ø
Manage oil price risk
’07 is the last year for the synfuel tax credit
Hedged 100% of planned ’07 production using call spreads
“Mark to market” accounting on spreads could impact timing
of earnings recognition
Variability of earnings predicated upon price paid per tax
credit which is impacted by the phase out range, inflation
factor, and actual production volumes
 
 

 
Ø
Reinvest earnings into existing operating companies
Ø
Look for opportunistic acquisition opportunities
Ø
Includes $125 million for the start up of new mines
Ø
Excludes payments for synfuel tax credits
Nonutility CapEx and Investments
 
 

 
Ø
5% rate base growth
Ø
~90% gas margin subject to conservation tariffs
Ø
~65% gas margin subject to NTA
Ø
~50% of electric Cap Ex expected to be recovered under Senate Bill 29
Ø
Nonutility 3-yr CAGR of over 18%
Business Environment and outlook for EMS, CM and EIS are all good
Ø
S&P : A-  and  Moody’s : Baa1
Ø
47 Consecutive years of increased dividends paid
12/1/06 increase of 3.3%
Ø
Average annual EPS growth of 5% or more
2006 & 2007 EPS Guidance