EX-99.(C)(17) 8 dex99c17.htm DISCUSSION MATERIALS, DATED SEPTEMBER 23, 2010, OF GOLDMAN SACHS Discussion Materials, dated September 23, 2010, of Goldman Sachs

Exhibit (c)(17)

 

LOGO

 

Exhibit (C) (17)

Goldman Sachs

J.Crew Discussion Materials

Goldman, Sachs & Co.

September 2010

[23-September-2010]


LOGO

 

Goldman Sachs

Recapitalization Analysis

Sources and Uses and Debt Paydown

($ in millions, except per share data)

Sources of Funds

Cost of % of Total x 2010E x 2010E

Amount Debt Sources EBITDA EBITDAR

Target Existing Cash $ 403 0.5% 44.6%

Bank Debt (1) 500 L + 425 55.4% 1.5 x 2.9 x

Total Sources of Funds $ 903 100.0%

Projected Free Cash Flow

PF 2010 2011E 2012E 2013E 2014E 2015E

Revenue $ 1,805 $ 2,034 $ 2,356 $ 2,709 $ 3,087 $ 3,481

Growth 14.4 % 12.7 % 15.8 % 15.0 % 14.0 % 12.7 %

EBITDA 329 394 474 567 672 793

Margin % 18.2 % 19.4 % 20.1 % 20.9 % 21.8 % 22.8 %

Net Income 148 185 236 295 358 430

(+) D&A 49 56 62 66 69 70

(+) Fin. Fees Amort. 2 2 2 2 2 2

(-) Capital Expenditure 52 54 59 59 58 65

(-) Change in OWC 0 19 (5) (5) (5) (1)

FCF For Debt Paydown $ 146 $ 170 $ 246 $ 309 $ 376 $ 438

Cumulative FCF $ 170 $ 416 $ 724 $ 1,100 $ 1,538

Uses of Funds

Amount

Total Special Dividends / Share Repurchases $ 723

Special Dividends per share $ 11.33

Shares Repurchased (mm) - at 20.0% premium 20.07

Shares Repurchased (mm) - at 15.0% premium 20.94

Shares Repurchased (mm) - at 10.0% premium 21.89

Minimum Operating Cash 153

Financing and Other Fees (1) 28

Total Uses of Funds $ 903

De-leveraging Profile

PF 2010 2011E 2012E 2013E 2014E 2015E

Bank Debt (1) $ 500 $ 330 $ 84 $ 0 $ 0 $ 0

Senior Notes 0 0 0 0 0 0

Total Debt $ 500 $ 330 $ 84 $ 0 $ 0 $ 0

Total Cash $ 153 $ 153 $ 153 $ 377 $ 753 $ 1,191

Credit Statistics

PF 2010 2011E 2012E 2013E 2014E 2015E

Total Debt / EBITDA 1.5 x 0.8 x 0.2 x 0.0 x 0.0 x 0.0 x

Adj. Debt / EBITDAR 2.9 x 2.2 x 1.7 x 1.5 x 1.4 x 1.4 x

EBITDA / Int. 10.2 x 14.5 x 32.3 x N.M. N.M. N.M.

EBITDA-Capex / Int. 8.6 x 12.5 x 28.2 x N.M. N.M. N.M.

Source: Company Management for the years 2010E through 2014E; Extrapolated based on constant growth and margins for 2015E

Note: Assumes 63.7 million of basic shares outstanding.

(1) Assumes LIBOR floor of 1.75%. Assumes financing fees of 2.5%. Assumes OID on bank debt to be 2.0% or $10.0 million. Also assumes advisory fees of $5.0 million.

1


LOGO

 

Goldman Sachs

Recapitalization: One-Time Share Repurchases

Assumes 20.0% Premium To Stock Price Of $30.00

($ in millions, except per share data)

One-Time Share Repo Size Status Quo $ 500 $ 600 $ 700 $ 723 $ 800 $ 900

% of Market Cap 24.8% 29.7% 34.7% 35.8% 39.6% 44.6%

Cash Used 250 250 250 250 250 250

New Debt 267 372 476 500 581 686

Share Repurchase Price $ 36.00 $ 36.00 $ 36.00 $ 36.00 $ 36.00 $ 36.00

% Premium to Current 20.0% 20.0% 20.0% 20.0% 20.0% 20.0%

Shares Repurchased (mm) 13.9 16.7 19.4 20.1 22.2 25.0

% of Outstanding Shares Repurchased (1) 21.8% 26.1% 30.5% 31.5% 34.9% 39.2%

Accretion / (Dilution) Analysis

FY 2011E Net Income (2) (3) $ 202 $ 194 $ 190 $ 186 $ 185 $ 181 $ 177

FY 2011E Shares Outstanding 66.8 52.9 50.1 47.3 46.7 44.5 41.8

FY 2011 E EPS (2) (3) (4) $ 3.02 $ 3.67 $ 3.79 $ 3.92 $ 3.95 $ 4.07 $ 4.25

Accretion / (Dilution) (%) 21.4% 25.4% 29.9% 30.9% 34.9% 40.6%

FY 2011E - 2013 E EPS CAGR 21.2% 23.2% 24.4% 25.5% 25.7% 26.3% 27.2%

Implied Share Price at 9.9x 2011 P/E Mulitple $ 30.00 $ 36.41 $ 37.61 $ 38.96 $ 39.28 $ 40.47 $ 42.19

Share Price Accretion (5) 21.4% 25.4% 29.9% 30.9% 34.9% 40.6%

Implied Share Price at 8.9x 2011 P/E Mulitple $ 32.74 $ 33.82 $ 35.03 $ 35.33 $ 36.40 $ 37.94

Share Price Accretion (5) 9.1% 12.7% 16.8% 17.8% 21.3% 26.5%

Implied Share Price at 7.9x 2011 P/E Mulitple $ 29.07 $ 30.04 $ 31.11 $ 31.37 $ 32.32 $ 33.69

Share Price Accretion (5) (3.1)% 0.1% 3.7% 4.6% 7.7% 12.3%

Pro Forma Credit Statistics (2010)

Total Debt $ 0 $ 267 $ 372 $ 476 $ 500 $ 581 $ 686

Debt / EBITDA 0.0 x 0.8 x 1.1 x 1.4 x 1.5 x 1.8 x 2.1 x

Adj. Debt / EBITDAR (6) 1.7 x 2.3 x 2.5 x 2.8 x 2.9 x 3.1 x 3.3 x

Source: Public filings, Management Projections

(1) Based on 63.7 million basic shares outstanding as of 22-Sep-2010.

(2) Assumes a tax rate of 40.2% for FY2011E.

(3) Assumes Interest rate on bank debt to be L + 425. Assumes LIBOR floor of 1.75%. Also assumes interest on cash to be 0.5%

(4) Based on 2011E weighted average diluted shares of 66.8 million.

(5) Accretion calculated based on current price of $30.00.

(6) Assumes rent expense capitalized at 8.0x and 100% of rent expense attributed to interest expense.

2


LOGO

 

Goldman Sachs

Recapitalization: One-Time Share Repurchases

Assumes 15.0% Premium To Stock Price Of $30.00

($ in millions, except per share data)

One-Time Share Repo Size Status Quo $ 500 $ 600 $ 700 $ 723 $ 800 $ 900

% of Market Cap 24.8% 29.7% 34.7% 35.8% 39.6% 44.6%

Cash Used 250 250 250 250 250 250

New Debt 267 372 476 500 581 686

Share Repurchase Price $ 34.50 $ 34.50 $ 34.50 $ 34.50 $ 34.50 $ 34.50

% Premium to Current 15.0% 15.0% 15.0% 15.0% 15.0% 15.0%

Shares Repurchased (mm) 14.5 17.4 20.3 20.9 23.2 26.1

% of Outstanding Shares Repurchased (1) 22.7% 27.3% 31.8% 32.9% 36.4% 40.9%

Accretion / (Dilution) Analysis

FY 2011E Net Income (2) (3) $ 202 $ 194 $ 190 $ 186 $ 185 $ 181 $ 177

FY 2011E Shares Outstanding 66.8 52.3 49.4 46.5 45.8 43.6 40.7

FY 2011 E EPS (2) (3) (4) $ 3.02 $ 3.71 $ 3.84 $ 3.99 $ 4.03 $ 4.17 $ 4.36

Accretion / (Dilution) (%) 22.8% 27.2% 32.2% 33.4% 37.9% 44.4%

FY 2011E - 2013 E EPS CAGR 21.2% 23.2% 24.4% 25.4% 25.6% 26.3% 27.2%

Implied Share Price at 9.9x 2011 P/E Mulitple $ 30.00 $ 36.83 $ 38.16 $ 39.67 $ 40.03 $ 41.37 $ 43.31

Share Price Accretion (5) 22.8% 27.2% 32.2% 33.4% 37.9% 44.4%

Implied Share Price at 8.9x 2011 P/E Mulitple $ 33.12 $ 34.32 $ 35.67 $ 36.00 $ 37.20 $ 38.95

Share Price Accretion (5) 10.4% 14.4% 18.9% 20.0% 24.0% 29.8%

Implied Share Price at 7.9x 2011 P/E Mulitple $ 29.41 $ 30.48 $ 31.68 $ 31.97 $ 33.04 $ 34.59

Share Price Accretion (5) (2.0)% 1.6% 5.6% 6.6% 10.1% 15.3%

Pro Forma Credit Statistics (2010)

Total Debt $ 0 $ 267 $ 372 $ 476 $ 500 $ 581 $ 686

Debt / EBITDA 0.0 x 0.8 x 1.1 x 1.4 x 1.5 x 1.8 x 2.1 x

Adj. Debt / EBITDAR (6) 1.7 x 2.3 x 2.5 x 2.8 x 2.9 x 3.1 x 3.3 x

Source: Public filings, Management Projections

(1) Based on 63.7 million basic shares outstanding as of 22-Sep-2010.

(2) Assumes a tax rate of 40.2% for FY2011E.

(3) Assumes Interest rate on bank debt to be L + 425. Assumes LIBOR floor of 1.75%. Also assumes interest on cash to be 0.5%

(4) Based on 2011E weighted average diluted shares of 66.8 million.

(5) Accretion calculated based on current price of $30.00.

(6) Assumes rent expense capitalized at 8.0x and 100% of rent expense attributed to interest expense.

3


LOGO

 

Goldman Sachs

Recapitalization: One-Time Share Repurchases

Assumes 10.0% Premium To Stock Price Of $30.00

($ in millions, except per share data)

One-Time Share Repo Size Status Quo $ 500 $ 600 $ 700 $ 723 $ 800 $ 900

% of Market Cap 24.8% 29.7% 34.7% 35.8% 39.6% 44.6%

Cash Used 250 250 250 250 250 250

New Debt 267 372 476 500 581 686

Share Repurchase Price $ 33.00 $ 33.00 $ 33.00 $ 33.00 $ 33.00 $ 33.00

% Premium to Current 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0%

Shares Repurchased (mm) 15.2 18.2 21.2 21.9 24.2 27.3

% of Outstanding Shares Repurchased (1) 23.8% 28.5% 33.3% 34.3% 38.0% 42.8%

Accretion / (Dilution) Analysis

FY 2011E Net Income (2) (3) $ 202 $ 194 $ 190 $ 186 $ 185 $ 181 $ 177

FY 2011E Shares Outstanding 66.8 51.6 48.6 45.5 44.9 42.5 39.5

FY 2011 E EPS (2) (3) (4) $ 3.02 $ 3.76 $ 3.90 $ 4.07 $ 4.12 $ 4.27 $ 4.49

Accretion / (Dilution) (%) 24.3% 29.3% 34.9% 36.3% 41.3% 48.7%

FY 2011E - 2013 E EPS CAGR 21.2% 23.2% 24.4% 25.4% 25.6% 26.3% 27.2%

Implied Share Price at 9.9x 2011 P/E Mulitple $ 30.00 $ 37.30 $ 38.78 $ 40.47 $ 40.88 $ 42.39 $ 44.61

Share Price Accretion (5) 24.3% 29.3% 34.9% 36.3% 41.3% 48.7%

Implied Share Price at 8.9x 2011 P/E Mulitple $ 33.54 $ 34.88 $ 36.39 $ 36.76 $ 38.13 $ 40.12

Share Price Accretion (5) 11.8% 16.3% 21.3% 22.5% 27.1% 33.7%

Implied Share Price at 7.9x 2011 P/E Mulitple $ 29.79 $ 30.97 $ 32.32 $ 32.65 $ 33.86 $ 35.63

Share Price Accretion (5) (0.7)% 3.2% 7.7% 8.8% 12.9% 18.8%

Pro Forma Credit Statistics (2010)

Total Debt $ 0 $ 267 $ 372 $ 476 $ 500 $ 581 $ 686

Debt / EBITDA 0.0 x 0.8 x 1.1 x 1.4 x 1.5 x 1.8 x 2.1 x

Adj. Debt / EBITDAR (6) 1.7 x 2.3 x 2.5 x 2.8 x 2.9 x 3.1 x 3.3 x

Source: Public filings, Management Projections

(1) Based on 63.7 million basic shares outstanding as of 22-Sep-2010.

(2) Assumes a tax rate of 40.2% for FY2011E.

(3) Assumes Interest rate on bank debt to be L + 425. Assumes LIBOR floor of 1.75%. Also assumes interest on cash to be 0.5%

(4) Based on 2011E weighted average diluted shares of 66.8 million.

(5) Accretion calculated based on current price of $30.00.

(6) Assumes rent expense capitalized at 8.0x and 100% of rent expense attributed to interest expense.

4


LOGO

 

Goldman Sachs

Recapitalization: One-Time Special Dividend

PF EPS Impact

($ in millions, except per share data)

One-Time Special Dividend Size Status Quo $ 500 $ 600 $ 700 $ 723 $ 800 $ 900

Special Dividends per share (1) $ 7.84 $ 9.41 $ 10.98 $ 11.33 $ 12.55 $ 14.12

Cash Used 250 250 250 250 250 250

New Debt 267 372 476 500 581 686

FY 2011E Net Income (2) (3) $ 202 $ 194 $ 190 $ 186 $ 185 $ 181 $ 177

FY 2011E Shares Outstanding 66.8 66.8 66.8 66.8 66.8 66.8 66.8

FY 2011 E EPS (2) (3) (4) $ 3.02 $ 2.90 $ 2.84 $ 2.78 $ 2.77 $ 2.72 $ 2.66

Accretion / (Dilution) (%) (3.9)% (5.9)% (8.0)% (8.4)% (10.0)% (12.0)%

Implied Share Price at 9.9x 2011 P/E Mulitple $ 30.00 $ 28.83 $ 28.22 $ 27.61 $ 27.47 $ 27.00 $ 26.39

Implied Share Price at 8.9x 2011 P/E Mulitple $ 25.93 $ 25.38 $ 24.83 $ 24.71 $ 24.28 $ 23.73

Implied Share Price at 7.9x 2011 P/E Mulitple $ 23.03 $ 22.54 $ 22.05 $ 21.94 $ 21.56 $ 21.08

Shareholder Value @9.9x 2011 P/E Mulitple (5) $ 36.68 $ 37.63 $ 38.59 $ 38.81 $ 39.55 $ 40.51

Accretion in Value over current price 22.3% 25.4% 28.6% 29.4% 31.8% 35.0%

Shareholder Value @8.9x 2011 P/E Mulitple (5) $ 33.77 $ 34.79 $ 35.81 $ 36.04 $ 36.83 $ 37.85

Accretion in Value over current price 12.6% 16.0% 19.4% 20.1% 22.8% 26.2%

Shareholder Value @7.9x 2011 P/E Mulitple (5) $ 30.87 $ 31.95 $ 33.03 $ 33.28 $ 34.11 $ 35.20

Accretion in Value over current price 2.9% 6.5% 10.1% 10.9% 13.7% 17.3%

Pro Forma Credit Statistics (2010)

Total Debt $ 0 $ 267 $ 372 $ 476 $ 500 $ 581 $ 686

Debt / EBITDA 0.0 x 0.8 x 1.1 x 1.4 x 1.5 x 1.8 x 2.1 x

Adj. Debt / EBITDAR (6) 1.7 x 2.3 x 2.5 x 2.8 x 2.9 x 3.1 x 3.3 x

Source: Public filings, Management Projections

(1) Based on current basic shares outstanding of 63.7 million.

(2) Assumes a tax rate of 40.2% for FY2011E.

(3) Assumes Interest rate on bank debt to be L + 425. Assumes LIBOR floor of 1.75%. Also assumes interest on cash to be 0.5%

(4) Based on 2011E weighted average diluted shares of 66.8 million.

(5) Defined as Dividend per share plus Pro Forma EPS times P/E Multiple (DPS + PF EPS x P/E). Accretion calculated based on current price of $30.00.

(6) Assumes rent expense capitalized at 8.0x and 100% of rent expense attributed to interest expense.

5


LOGO

 

Goldman Sachs

Recapitalization: One-Time Special Dividend

Value Creation to Shareholders

One-Time Special Dividend of $723 mm (2.9x Adj. Leverage)

9.9 x 11.0 x 12.0 x 13.0 x 14.0 x

Implied Share Price $ 30.00 $33.23 $36.25 $39.27 $42.29

Implied Share Price

- Same Multiple $ 27.47 $ 30.43 $ 33.19 $ 35.96 $ 38.72

- 1.0x Multiple less $ 24.71 $ 27.66 $ 30.43 $ 33.19 $ 35.96

- 2.0x Multiple less $ 21.94 $ 24.89 $ 27.66 $ 30.43 $ 33.19

- 3.0x Multiple less $ 19.17 $ 22.13 $ 24.89 $ 27.66 $ 30.43

Special Dividends per share $ 11.33 $ 11.33 $ 11.33 $ 11.33 $ 11.33

Value to Shareholders

- Same Multiple $ 38.81 $ 41.76 $ 44.53 $ 47.29 $ 50.06

Value Accretion to Implied Price 29.4% 25.7% 22.8% 20.4% 18.4%

- 1.0x Multiple less $ 36.04 $ 39.00 $ 41.76 $ 44.53 $ 47.29

Value Accretion to Implied Price 20.1% 17.4% 15.2% 13.4% 11.8%

- 2.0x Multiple less $ 33.28 $ 36.23 $ 39.00 $ 41.76 $ 44.53

Value Accretion to Implied Price 10.9% 9.0% 7.6% 6.4% 5.3%

- 3.0x Multiple less $ 30.51 $ 33.46 $ 36.23 $ 39.00 $ 41.76

Value Accretion to Implied Price 1.7% 0.7% (0.0)% (0.7)% (1.2)%

Source: Public filings, Management Projections

6