EX-99.(C)(2) 5 dex99c2.htm FINANCIAL ANALYSIS PRESENTATION MATERIALS, DATED NOVEMBER 22, 2010 Financial Analysis Presentation Materials, dated November 22, 2010
PROJECT JADE
SPECIAL COMMITTEE OF THE BOARD OF DIRECTORS
Exhibit (c)(2)
November 22, 2010


2
Confidential
TABLE OF CONTENTS
I.
Transaction Overview
II.
Financial Analysis


I.
TRANSACTION OVERVIEW


4
Confidential
Sources:
11/17/2010 Jade Management projections, company filings, FactSet.  Jade shares, options, and RSUs as of 10/2/2010
Notes:
(1) Represent Q3 FY2010 ending debt and cash balances
(2) Based on actual reported EBITDA of $315.9MM, adjusted for one-time items (benefit related to forfeited share-based awards, lease termination, and severance costs)
TRANSACTION OVERVIEW
(1)
(1)
11/19/10 Close
Transaction Price
Share Price
$36.49
$43.50
Premium To:
Metric
11/19/10 Close
$36.49
0.0%
19.2%
1 Month Average
33.57
8.7%
29.6%
3 Month Average
33.66
8.4%
29.2%
12 Month Average
40.01
(8.8%)
8.7%
Fully Diluted Shares Outstanding
68.4
69.1
Equity Value
$2,495
$3,005
Add: Debt
0
0
Less: Cash
(312)
(312)
Enterprise Value
$2,184
$2,693
EV/LTM EBITDA (Q3 2010)
$314
7.0x
8.6x
IBES CONSENSUS
EV/EBITDA
FY 2010E
$303
7.2x
8.9x
FY 2011E
317
6.9
8.5
Price/Earnings
FY 2010E
$2.25
16.2x
19.3x
FY 2011E
2.45
14.9
17.8
CURRENT PLAN
EV/EBITDA
FY 2010E
$281
7.8x
9.6x
FY 2011E
326
6.7
8.3
Price/Earnings
FY 2010E
$2.07
17.6x
21.0x
FY 2011E
2.43
15.0
17.9
US$ IN MM, EXCEPT MULTIPLES AND PER SHARE AMOUNTS
(2)


5
Confidential
CAPITAL STRUCTURE AND TRANSACTION SOURCES AND USES
Sources:
11/17/2010 Jade Management projections. Jade shares, options, and RSUs as of 10/2/2010
Note:
(1) Based on FY2010E EBITDA
SOURCES AND USES
Multiple of
EBITDA
% of Total
Amount
Cash (FY2010E)
1.30x
12%
$367
Revolver ($250MM committed, $0MM utilized at close, L + 250bps)
0.00x
0%
0
Term Loan (L + 450 bps)
3.55x
32%
1,000
Senior Notes (L + 800 bps)
2.13x
19%
600
TPG Equity
2.83x
25%
797
LGP Equity
0.94x
8%
266
Rollover Equity
0.50x
4%
140
Total Sources
100%
$3,170
% of Total
Amount
Purchase of Equity
95%
$3,005
Estimated Fees & Expenses
3%
90
Minimum Cash
2%
75
Total Uses
100%
$3,170
(US$ in MM)
(1)


II.
FINANCIAL ANALYSIS


7
Confidential
VALUATION SUMMARY –
EQUITY VALUE PER SHARE
$40.00
$39.00
$38.00
$32.00
$30.00
$30.06
$52.00
$47.00
$50.00
$41.00
$50.00
$50.96
$20.00
$25.00
$30.00
$35.00
$40.00
$45.00
$50.00
$55.00
$60.00
$65.00
DCF
Precedents
Premia Paid
Comps
Equity Research Price Targets
52 Week Range
52 Week Range
Equity Research Price Targets
Public Companies
6.5x –
8.0x 2010E EBITDA, 16.0x –
20.0x 2010E EPS
6.0x –
7.5x 2011E EBITDA, 15.0x –
17.0x 2011E EPS
Relevant Transactions
7.5x –
9.5x LTM EBITDA
Discounted Cash Flow Analysis
11% -
15% WACC, 6.0x –
7.5x Exit Multiple
Current Price: $36.49
(11/19/10)
Premiums Paid
1-Day Premium: 11% -
36%
1-Week Premium: 18% -
39%
1-Month Premium: 22% -
34%
Transaction Price: $43.50
Sources:
FactSet, company filings, Wall Street Research, 11/17/2010 Jade Management projections. Jade shares, options, and RSUs as of 10/2/2010


8
Confidential
RELATIVE SHARE PRICE PERFORMANCE
LTM SHARE PRICE PERFORMANCE
SHARE PRICE PERFORMANCE SINCE IPO (6/27/06)
Source:
FactSet as of 11/19/2010
Notes:
Selected Peers represented by equal weighted index of Abercrombie & Fitch, Aeropostale, American Eagle, Ann Taylor, Bebe, Carter’s, Chico’s, Children’s Place, Coach, Coldwater Creek, The Dress Barn, The
Gap, Guess?, Limited Brands, New York & Company, Polo Ralph Lauren, Talbots, Under Armour, and Urban Outfitters. Peers indexed to Jade share price of $41.11 for LTM performance and $20.00 for
performance since IPO
(1) XRT represents the S&P Retail Index
$0.00
$10.00
$20.00
$30.00
$40.00
$50.00
$60.00
Jun-06
May-07
Mar-08
Feb-09
Jan-10
Nov-10
Jade
82%
Peers
50%
XRT
26%
$25.00
$35.00
$45.00
$55.00
$65.00
$75.00
Nov-09
Jan-10
Apr-10
Jun-10
Sep-10
Nov-10
Jade
(11%)
XRT
31%
Peers
40%
(1)
(1)
Jade Since IPO
High (6/19/2007)
$56.63
Low (12/1/2008)
8.77
Average
34.65


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Confidential
Sell
5%
Hold
62%
Buy
33%
EQUITY RESEARCH PRICE TARGETS
Source:
Wall Street research
8/27
8/27
11/15
8/27
8/27
8/26
7/15
8/26
8/27
10/25
10/5
11/9
10/21
11/11
8/26
10/21
11/18
Buy
Buy
Buy
Buy
Buy
Buy
Hold
Hold
Hold
Hold
Hold
Hold
Hold
Hold
Hold
Hold
Sell
Upside to Current
37%
34%
21%
15%
10%
10%
1%
(4%)
(4%)
(4%)
(4%)
(7%)
(7%)
(10%)
(15%)
(15%)
(18%)
$50.00
$49.00
$44.00
$35.00
$35.00
$31.00
$30.00
$34.00
$33.00
$31.00
$35.00
$37.00
$40.00
$42.00
$40.00
$35.00
$34.00
Current Price: $36.49
$25.00
$35.00
$45.00
$55.00
Oppenheimer
Baird
Atlantic
Equities
B. MurrayWedbush
Weeden
JP Morgan
UBS
Jefferies
MKM
BOA
Nomura
P. Jaffray
Goldman
BMO
Janney
Morgan
Stanley
Median Price Target: $35.00


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Confidential
PUBLIC COMPANIES –
EV / FY2010E EBITDA
Selected Peers
Other Peers
Jade
4.6x
5.5x
8.3x
10.6x
4.9x
5.5x
7.8x
8.2x
10.4x
16.8x
5.8x
6.0x
7.8x
7.2x
4.8x
6.9x
7.6x
6.1x
6.6x
Selected Peers Median: 6.9x
Other Peers Median: 6.6x
0.0x
5.0x
10.0x
15.0x
20.0x
Current Plan
IBES
Aeropostale
Chico's
A&F
Urban
Outfitters
The Gap
Dress Barn
American
Eagle
Talbots
Children's
Place
Ann Taylor
Coldwater
Creek
Carter's
Coach
Limited
Brands
Guess?
Polo
Bebe
Sources:
Company Filings, Factset, 11/17/2010 Jade Management projections, IBES. Jade shares, options, and RSUs as of 10/2/2010. Based on Jade Q3 FY2010 ending debt and cash balances


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10.0x
17.2x
25.7x
12.3x
12.3x
12.9x
16.1x
20.9x
21.1x
22.0x
15.3x
11.4x
16.2x
17.6x
17.3x
17.1x
22.3x
Selected Peers Median: 19.7x
Other Peers Median: 16.1x
0.0x
7.0x
14.0x
21.0x
28.0x
Current Plan
IBES
Aeropostale
Chico's
Urban
Outfitters
A&F
The Gap
Dress Barn
Carter's
Talbots
Guess?
American
Eagle
Limited
Brands
Children's
Place
Polo
Coach
Ann Taylor
PUBLIC COMPANIES –
PRICE / FY2010E EARNINGS
Sources:
Company Filings, Factset, 11/17/2010 Jade Management projections, IBES
Other Peers
Jade
Selected Peers


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RELATIVE VALUATION OVER TIME
PRICE / NTM EPS
EV / NTM EBITDA
Jade
7.0x
Peers
6.5x
0.0x
3.0x
6.0x
9.0x
12.0x
15.0x
Nov-08
Apr-09
Sep-09
Jan-10
Jun-10
Nov-10
Jade
15.1x
S&P500
13.3x
Peers
15.3x
0.0x
10.0x
20.0x
30.0x
40.0x
50.0x
Nov-08
Apr-09
Sep-09
Jan-10
Jun-10
Nov-10
Sources:
FactSet as of 11/19/2010, company filings.  Earnings estimates based on IBES consensus median
Note:
Peers represented by median of group, and include Abercrombie & Fitch, Aeropostale, American Eagle, Ann Taylor, Bebe, Carter’s, Chico’s, Children’s Place, Coach, Coldwater Creek, The Dress Barn, The
Gap, Guess?, Limited Brands, New York & Company, Polo Ralph Lauren, Talbots, Under Armour, and Urban Outfitters
Company
12-Mo. Avg
18-Mo. Avg
24-Mo. Avg
Jade
7.7x
8.4x
7.6x
Peers
6.2x
6.5x
6.1x
Company
12-Mo. Avg
18-Mo. Avg
24-Mo. Avg
Jade
17.3x
21.5x
21.0x
S&P 500
13.6x
14.2x
13.7x
Peers
15.8x
16.0x
14.7x


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Confidential
Premiums Paid (2nd Quartile High and 3rd Quartile Low)
Implied Share Price
2nd Quartile High
$49.72
$47.08
$42.52
Median
44.25
41.05
39.89
3rd Quartile Low
40.55
40.07
38.48
11.1%
18.2%
21.5%
36.2%
38.8%
34.2%
0.0%
10.0%
20.0%
30.0%
40.0%
50.0%
1 Day Prior
1 Week Prior
1 Month Prior
PREMIUMS PAID
Sources:
FactSet, Dealogic
Note:
Analysis includes 100% cash transactions with U.S. targets from 2005 to present between $2.0Bn and $4.0Bn
19.2%
28.3%
37.3%
25.9%
21.0%
21.3%
Median of Precedents
Current Offer Premia


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RELEVANT TRANSACTIONS
EV / LTM EBITDA
Specialty Apparel
Branded
Private Equity Buyer
Strategic Buyer
(2)
Acquiror
Apax
Apollo
Lee Equity
Advent
V. Heusen
Bain
Jones
Federated
Consortium
Consortium
Apollo
Bain
Consortium
Consortium
Istithmar
Date Announced
12/05
3/07
7/07
8/09
3/10
10/10
11/04
2/05
3/05
5/05
11/05
1/06
6/06
7/06
6/07
Transaction Value
$1,547
$2,581
$259
$312
$3,136
$1,761
$400
$17,260
$6,213
$4,981
$1,305
$1,958
$5,604
$1,819
$942
6.6x
8.9x
9.4x
10.2x
12.2x
14.1x
8.7x
8.8x
8.2x
7.2x
7.9x
7.9x
7.8x
7.9x
8.1x
Branded Median: 8.9x
Specialty Apparel Median: 7.9x
Overall Median: 8.2x
0.0x
2.0x
4.0x
6.0x
8.0x
10.0x
12.0x
14.0x
16.0x
Tommy
Hilfiger
Claire's
Stores
Deb Shops
Charlotte
Russe
Tommy
Hilfiger
Gymboree
Barney's
May
Toys R Us
Neiman
Marcus
Linens n
Things
Burlington
Coat
Factory
Michaels
Stores
Petco
Barney's
IMPLIED TRANSACTION MULTIPLE: 8.6x
(1)
Sources:
Company filings. Jade shares, options, and RSUs as of 10/2/2010.  Implied offer multiple based on Jade LTM EBITDA as of Q3 FY2010 and Q3 FY2010 ending debt and cash balances
Note:
(1) Based on actual reported EBITDA of $315.9MM, adjusted for one-time items (benefit related to forfeited share-based awards, lease termination benefit, and severance costs)
(2) Defined as Transaction Enterprise Value.  Figures shown in millions of US dollars


15
Confidential
HISTORICAL AND PROJECTED FINANCIAL PERFORMANCE: REVENUE AND GROSS MARGIN
Sources:
11/17/2010 Jade Management projections, company filings
(2.5%)
16.4%
13.4%
13.0%
5.6%
(4.0%)
4.1%
5.3%
2.5%
3.5%
3.7%
3.9%
4.1%
$690
$804
$953
$1,152
$1,335
$1,428
$1,578
$1,731
$1,914
$2,148
$2,425
$2,719
$3,031
$0
$1,500
$3,000
$4,500
2003A
2004A
2005A
2006A
2007A
2008A
2009A
2010E
2011E
2012E
2013E
2014E
2015E
REVENUE
GROSS MARGIN
(US$ in MM)
HISTORICAL
CURRENT PLAN
36.2%
40.5%
41.8%
43.4%
44.1%
38.9%
44.1%
43.4%
44.8%
44.7%
44.7%
45.0%
45.3%
35.0%
40.0%
45.0%
50.0%
2003A
2004A
2005A
2006A
2007A
2008A
2009A
2010E
2011E
2012E
2013E
2014E
2015E
2003-2009 CAGR: 14.8%
2010-2015 CAGR: 11.9%
2003-2009 AVERAGE: 41.3%
2010-2015 AVERAGE: 44.7%
(Wall Street Consensus: 11.5%)
(Wall Street Consensus: 45.0%)
Comp Store
Sales


16
Confidential
HISTORICAL AND PROJECTED FINANCIAL PERFORMANCE: EBITDA AND EBIT
$12
$75
$113
$159
$207
$141
$263
$281
$326
$372
$423
$478
$535
$0
$250
$500
$750
2003A
2004A
2005A
2006A
2007A
2008A
2009A
2010E
2011E
2012E
2013E
2014E
2015E
($31)
$38
$79
$126
$172
$97
$211
$232
$270
$308
$356
$408
$463
($500)
$0
$500
$1,000
2003A
2004A
2005A
2006A
2007A
2008A
2009A
2010E
2011E
2012E
2013E
2014E
2015E
EBITDA
EBIT
2003-2009 CAGR: 66.6%
2010-2015 CAGR: 13.7%
2004-2009 CAGR: 41.2%
2010-2015 CAGR: 14.9%
(US$ in MM)
HISTORICAL
CURRENT PLAN
(Wall Street Consensus: 15.0%)
(Wall Street Consensus: 14.5%)
Sources:
11/17/2010 Jade Management projections, company filings


17
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HISTORICAL AND PROJECTED FINANCIAL PERFORMANCE: EPS AND CAPEX
Sources:
11/17/2010 Jade Management projections, company filings, FactSet, IBES
Note:
(1) Excludes reversal of accrued equity compensation expense related to departure of senior executive in July; impact of reversal is approximately $0.03 per share
EPS
CAPEX
(1)
(US$ in MM, except per share amounts)
Consensus LTGR: 15.2%
HISTORICAL
CURRENT PLAN
$10
$13
$22
$46
$81
$78
$45
$55
$90
$103
$69
$69
$67
$0
$50
$100
$150
2003A
2004A
2005A
2006A
2007A
2008A
2009A
2010E
2011E
2012E
2013E
2014E
2015E
($3.31)
($0.39)
$1.49
$1.52
$0.85
$1.91
$2.07
$2.43
$2.72
$3.09
$3.48
$3.89
($4.82)
($5.00)
$0.00
$5.00
2003A
2004A
2005A
2006A
2007A
2008A
2009A
2010E
2011E
2012E
2013E
2014E
2015E
2006-2009 CAGR: 8.6%
2010-2015 CAGR: 13.4%
(Wall Street Consensus: 16.5%)
Average % of Revenues: 3.4%
Avg % of Revenues: 3.4%
(Wall Street Consensus: 3.2%)
Consensus
$2.25
$2.45
$2.85


18
Confidential
DISCOUNTED CASH FLOW ANALYSIS
(US$ in MM, except per share amounts)
(1)
Fiscal Year
FY2011E
FY2012E
FY2013E
FY2014E
FY2015E
EBITDA
$326
$372
$423
$478
$535
Less: Depreciation
(56)
(63)
(67)
(70)
(71)
EBIT
$270
$308
$356
$408
$463
Less: Taxes
(109)
(124)
(143)
(164)
(186)
After-Tax EBIT
$162
$184
$213
$244
$277
Add: Depreciation
56
63
67
70
71
Net: Change in Deferred Credits
(6)
2
2
2
2
Net: Change in Other Liabilities
0
0
0
0
0
Add: Stock Based Compensation
15
20
21
21
21
Less: Increase in NWC
3
4
4
5
5
Less: Capex
(90)
(103)
(69)
(69)
(67)
Unlevered Free Cash Flow
$139
$171
$237
$272
$309
Unlevered Free Cash Flows
$139
$171
$237
$272
$309
Terminal Value (Assumes 6.5x Exit Multiple)
$3,475
Total Free Cash Flows
$139
$171
$237
$272
$309
$3,475
Multiply: Discount Factor (Assumes 13.0% WACC)
0.94x
0.83x
0.74x
0.65x
0.58x
0.54x
Discounted Free Cash Flows
$131
$142
$175
$177
$178
$1,886
Implied Enterprise Value
Implied Value Per Share
Terminal Multiple
Terminal Multiple
WACC
6.0x
6.5x
7.0x
7.5x
WACC
6.0x
6.5x
7.0x
7.5x
11%
$2,747
$2,906
$3,064
$3,223
11%
$45.00
$47.18
$49.36
$51.55
12%
2,643
2,795
2,947
3,099
12%
43.57
45.66
47.75
49.83
13%
2,545
2,690
2,835
2,980
13%
42.22
44.22
46.21
48.21
14%
2,451
2,590
2,729
2,868
14%
40.93
42.84
44.75
46.66
15%
2,362
2,495
2,628
2,761
15%
39.71
41.53
43.36
45.19
Sources: Company filings, 11/17/2010 Jade Management projections. Jade shares, options, and RSUs as of 10/2/2010
Note:
(1) Assumes tax rate of 40.2%


19
Confidential
WEIGHTED AVERAGE COST OF CAPITAL ANALYSIS
Sources:
Bloomberg, Company Filings
Notes:
(1) 2 year adjusted beta
(2) Assumes 40% tax rate
(3) Based on yield on 10-Year U.S. Government Bond as of 11/19/2010 
(4) Based on 2009 Ibbotson Report   
ASSET BETA ANALYSIS
Levered
Debt /
Unlevered
Company
Beta
(1)
Equity
Beta
(2)
Jade
1.58
0.0%
1.58
The Gap
0.99
0.0%
0.99
American Eagle
1.20
0.0%
1.20
Urban Outfitters
1.14
0.0%
1.14
Ann Taylor
1.52
0.0%
1.52
Pacific Sunwear
1.55
0.0%
1.55
Chico's
1.34
0.0%
1.34
Aeropostale
0.89
0.0%
0.89
Zumiez
1.33
0.0%
1.33
Guess?
1.52
0.4%
1.52
Buckle
1.02
0.0%
1.02
A&F
1.64
2.0%
1.62
Talbots
1.77
4.4%
1.73
Bebe
1.22
0.0%
1.22
Hot Topic
1.14
0.0%
1.14
Coldwater Creek
2.16
4.5%
2.10
Limited Brands
1.55
20.4%
1.38
Polo
1.24
2.8%
1.22
Coach
1.43
0.2%
1.43
Children's Place
1.10
0.0%
1.10
Carter's
1.12
12.5%
1.04
Dress Barn
1.11
1.6%
1.10
New York & Co
2.36
5.9%
2.28
Gymboree
1.21
0.0%
1.21
Under Armour
1.45
0.6%
1.44
Mean
1.38
2.2%
1.36
Median
1.33
0.0%
1.33
High
2.36
20.4%
2.28
Low
0.89
0.0%
0.89
WACC ANALYSIS
Cost of Equity
U.S. Risk Free Rate
(3)
2.88%
Equity Risk Premium
(4)
6.70%
Asset Beta
1.50
Relevered Beta (0% Target Debt / Equity)
1.50
Adjusted Equity Market Risk Premium
10.05%
Cost of Equity
12.93%
Cost of Debt
Cost of Debt (Pre-Tax)
6.00%
Tax Rate
40.00%
Cost of Debt (After-Tax)
3.60%
% Debt
0.00%
% Equity
100.00%
Weighted Average Cost of Capital
12.93%
Selected Range
11.00%
15.00%


20
Confidential
LEGAL NOTICE