0001193125-15-030630.txt : 20150203 0001193125-15-030630.hdr.sgml : 20150203 20150203100154 ACCESSION NUMBER: 0001193125-15-030630 CONFORMED SUBMISSION TYPE: 8-K PUBLIC DOCUMENT COUNT: 6 CONFORMED PERIOD OF REPORT: 20150202 ITEM INFORMATION: Results of Operations and Financial Condition ITEM INFORMATION: Financial Statements and Exhibits FILED AS OF DATE: 20150203 DATE AS OF CHANGE: 20150203 FILER: COMPANY DATA: COMPANY CONFORMED NAME: AMERICAN FINANCIAL GROUP INC CENTRAL INDEX KEY: 0001042046 STANDARD INDUSTRIAL CLASSIFICATION: FIRE, MARINE & CASUALTY INSURANCE [6331] IRS NUMBER: 311544320 STATE OF INCORPORATION: OH FISCAL YEAR END: 1231 FILING VALUES: FORM TYPE: 8-K SEC ACT: 1934 Act SEC FILE NUMBER: 001-13653 FILM NUMBER: 15569311 BUSINESS ADDRESS: STREET 1: GREAT AMERICAN INSURANCE GROUP TOWER STREET 2: 301 E. 4TH STREET CITY: CINCINNATI STATE: OH ZIP: 45202 BUSINESS PHONE: 5135792121 MAIL ADDRESS: STREET 1: GREAT AMERICAN INSURANCE GROUP TOWER STREET 2: 301 E. 4TH STREET CITY: CINCINNATI STATE: OH ZIP: 45202 FORMER COMPANY: FORMER CONFORMED NAME: AMERICAN FINANCIAL GROUP HOLDINGS INC DATE OF NAME CHANGE: 19970709 8-K 1 d864656d8k.htm CURRENT REPORT Current Report

 

 

UNITED STATES

SECURITIES AND EXCHANGE COMMISSION

Washington, D.C. 20549

 

 

FORM 8-K

 

 

CURRENT REPORT

Pursuant to Section 13 OR 15(d)

of The Securities Exchange Act of 1934

Date of Report (Date of earliest event reported): February 2, 2015

 

 

AMERICAN FINANCIAL GROUP, INC.

(Exact name of registrant as specified in its charter)

 

 

 

Ohio   1-13653   31-1544320

(State or other jurisdiction

of incorporation)

 

(Commission

File Number)

 

(IRS Employer

Identification No.)

 

301 East Fourth Street, Cincinnati, OH   45202
(Address of principal executive offices)   (Zip Code)

Registrant’s telephone number, including area code 513-579-2121

 

 

Check the appropriate box below if the Form 8-K filing is intended to simultaneously satisfy the filing obligation of the registrant under any of the following provisions (see General Instruction A.2. below):

 

¨ Written communications pursuant to Rule 425 under the Securities Act (17 CFR 230.425)

 

¨ Soliciting material pursuant to Rule 14a-12 under the Exchange Act (17 CFR 240.14a-12)

 

¨ Pre-commencement communications pursuant to Rule 14d-2(b) under the Exchange Act (17 CFR 240.14d-2(b))

 

¨ Pre-commencement communications pursuant to Rule 13e-4(c) under the Exchange Act (17 CFR 240.13e-4(c))

 

 

 


Section 2 - Financial Information

 

Item 2.02 Results Of Operations And Financial Condition.

Reference is made to the press release of American Financial Group, Inc. (the “Company”) relating to the announcement of the Company’s results of operations for the fourth quarter of 2014 and full year ended December 31, 2014 as well as the availability of the Investor Supplement on the Company’s website. The press release was issued on February 2, 2015. A copy of the press release is attached to this Form 8-K as Exhibit 99.1 and a copy of the Investor Supplement is attached as Exhibit 99.2 and are incorporated herein by reference.

The information contained herein shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 as amended (the “Exchange Act), or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that section, nor shall it be deemed incorporated by reference in any filing under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, or the Exchange Act.

Section 9 - Financial Statements and Exhibits

 

Item 9.01 Financial Statements and Exhibits.

 

  (a) Financial statements of business acquired. Not applicable.

 

  (b) Pro forma financial information. Not applicable.

 

  (c) Shell company transactions. Not applicable

 

  (d) Exhibits

 

Exhibit
No.

  

Description

99.1    Earnings Release dated February 2, 2015, reporting American Financial Group Inc. fourth quarter and full year results for the period ended December 31, 2014.
99.2    Investor Supplement – Fourth Quarter 2014

 

2


SIGNATURES

Pursuant to the requirements of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, the registrant has duly caused this report to be signed on its behalf by the undersigned hereunto duly authorized.

 

    AMERICAN FINANCIAL GROUP, INC.
Date: February 3, 2015      
    By:  

Karl J. Grafe

      Karl J. Grafe
      Vice President

 

3

EX-99.1 2 d864656dex991.htm EARNINGS RELEASE Earnings Release

Exhibit 99.1

 

LOGO

American Financial Group, Inc. Announces Record 2014 Fourth Quarter and Full Year Core Net Operating Earnings Per Share

 

  Record fourth quarter core net operating earnings of $1.35 per share; up 5% from prior year period

 

  Record core net operating earnings per share of $4.82 for the full year; up 14% from 2013

 

  Growth in adjusted book value plus dividends of 10% during 2014

 

  Full year 2015 core net operating earnings guidance between $5.10 - $5.50 per share

Cincinnati, Ohio – February 2, 2015 – American Financial Group, Inc. (NYSE/NASDAQ: AFG) today reported 2014 fourth quarter net earnings attributable to shareholders of $127 million ($1.41 per share) compared to $158 million ($1.73 per share) for the 2013 fourth quarter. Results for the fourth quarter of 2014 include $5 million ($0.06 per share) in after-tax realized gains compared to $41 million ($0.45 per share) in the prior year period. Book value per share, excluding appropriated retained earnings and unrealized gains on fixed maturities, increased by $0.17, to $48.76 per share during the fourth quarter of 2014. Total value creation, measured as growth in adjusted book value plus dividends, was $4.77 per share, or 10%, for the full year 2014. Net earnings attributable to shareholders for the year were $4.97 per share, compared to $5.16 per share in 2013. Return on equity was 11.0% and 12.3% for 2014 and 2013, respectively.

Core net operating earnings were $122 million ($1.35 per share) for the 2014 fourth quarter, compared to $117 million ($1.28 per share) in the 2013 fourth quarter. Higher underwriting profit and net investment income in our Specialty Property and Casualty (“P&C”) insurance operations were partially offset by lower core operating earnings in our Annuity and Run-off Long-term Care and Life segments. Core net operating earnings for the fourth quarters of 2014 and 2013 generated annualized returns on equity of 11.7% and 11.8%, respectively. Full year 2014 core net operating earnings per share increased by 14% over the prior year.

During the fourth quarter of 2014, AFG repurchased approximately 1.1 million shares of common stock for $64 million (average price per share of $58.54).

AFG’s net earnings attributable to shareholders, determined in accordance with generally accepted accounting principles (“GAAP”), include certain items that may not be indicative of its ongoing core operations. The following table identifies such items and reconciles net earnings attributable to shareholders to core net operating earnings, a non-GAAP financial measure that AFG believes is a useful tool for investors and analysts in analyzing ongoing operating trends.

 

Page 1


In millions, except per share amounts    Three months ended
December 31,
     Twelve months ended
December 31,
 
     2014      2013      2014     2013  

Components of net earnings attributable to shareholders:

          

Core net operating earnings(a)

   $ 122       $ 117       $ 439      $ 385   

Non-Core Items:

          

Realized gains

     5         41         32        138   

Special A&E charges(b)

     —           —           (19     (49

Other

     —           —           —          (3
  

 

 

    

 

 

    

 

 

   

 

 

 

Net earnings attributable to shareholders

   $ 127       $ 158       $ 452      $ 471   
  

 

 

    

 

 

    

 

 

   

 

 

 
     Three months ended
December 31,
     Twelve months ended
December 31,
 
     2014      2013      2014     2013  

Components of Earnings per Share:

          

Core net operating earnings(a)

   $ 1.35       $ 1.28       $ 4.82      $ 4.22   

Non-Core Items:

          

Realized gains

     0.06         0.45         0.36        1.52   

Special A&E charges(b)

     —           —           (0.21     (0.54

Other

     —           —           —          (0.04
  

 

 

    

 

 

    

 

 

   

 

 

 

Diluted earnings per share

   $ 1.41       $ 1.73       $ 4.97      $ 5.16   
  

 

 

    

 

 

    

 

 

   

 

 

 

Footnotes (a) and (b) are contained in the accompanying Notes to Financial Schedules at the end of this release.

Carl H. Lindner III and S. Craig Lindner, AFG’s Co-Chief Executive Officers, commented: “Strong specialty P&C underwriting profitability and excellent annuity core operating earnings produced a 14% increase in AFG’s core net operating earnings per share for the year, establishing a new record for us. Our operating performance, superior investment execution and intelligent deployment of capital have helped us to achieve five year compounded growth in adjusted book value plus dividends of 12%. We thank God and our management team and employees for helping to achieve these results.

“AFG had approximately $810 million of excess capital (including parent company cash of approximately $290 million) at December 31, 2014. During 2014, we increased our quarterly dividend by 14% and in the fourth quarter of 2014 we paid a special dividend of $1.00 per share. Our strong financial position provides the flexibility to act on strategic business opportunities with the potential to produce desired long-term returns. We will continue to invest excess capital when we see potential for healthy, profitable organic growth and return value to our shareholders through opportunistic share repurchases and dividends.

“Based on current information, we expect core net operating earnings in 2015 to be between $5.10 and $5.50 per share. Our core earnings per share guidance excludes non-core items such as realized gains and losses, as well as other significant items that may not be indicative of ongoing operations.”

Specialty Property and Casualty Insurance Operations

The P&C specialty insurance operations generated underwriting profit of $79 million for the 2014 fourth quarter compared to $75 million in the fourth quarter of 2013, with each of our Specialty P&C sub-segments achieving higher underwriting profitability. The fourth quarter 2014 combined ratio of 92.6% includes 1.0 point of adverse prior year reserve development, compared to 0.5 points of favorable development in the comparable prior year period. Fourth quarter results in 2014 include $3 million (0.2 points on the combined ratio) in catastrophe losses, compared to $1 million (0.1 points on the combined ratio) in the comparable 2013 period.

 

Page 2


Gross and net written premiums were up 22% and 25%, respectively, in the 2014 fourth quarter compared to the prior year period. The 2014 results include premiums from Summit, AFG’s specialty workers’ compensation subsidiary, from the date of acquisition on April 1, 2014. Excluding Summit premiums, gross and net written premiums for the fourth quarter grew by 8% and 7%, respectively, year-over-year. Full year 2014 net written premiums were up 20%; excluding Summit, full year net written premiums grew by 8%. Further details of AFG’s Specialty P&C operations may be found in the accompanying schedules.

The Property and Transportation Group reported an underwriting profit of $22 million in the fourth quarter of 2014, compared to $17 million in the comparable prior year period. Higher accident year profitability in our property and inland marine operations was partially offset by lower underwriting profits in our transportation operations. Catastrophe losses for this group were $2 million in the fourth quarter of 2014 and negligible in the comparable 2013 period.

Fourth quarter 2014 gross and net written premiums in this group were 8% and 7% higher, respectively, than the comparable prior year period, and reflect growth in most business units within this group. Net written premiums for the full year of 2014 were up approximately 1%. Overall renewal rates in this group increased 4% in the fourth quarter of 2014. The average rate increase for this group during 2014 was approximately 5%.

The Specialty Casualty Group reported an underwriting profit of $36 million in the 2014 fourth quarter compared to $32 million in the comparable 2013 period. This increase reflects higher accident year profitability in our workers’ compensation businesses, which was partially offset by $14 million of adverse prior year reserve development, primarily attributable to our international operations. The majority of businesses in this group produced strong underwriting profit margins during 2014.

Gross and net written premiums grew by 44% and 55%, respectively, in the fourth quarter of 2014 compared to the same period in 2013 and include Summit’s results since April 1, 2014. Excluding premiums from Summit, gross and net written premiums grew by 12% and 11%, respectively during the quarter. Broad-based growth across this group was primarily the result of growth in our workers’ compensation operations and excess and surplus lines businesses. New business opportunities and increased exposures on existing accounts have driven the growth in our workers’ compensation businesses. Organic growth opportunities have contributed to higher premiums in our excess and surplus businesses. Net written premiums were up 52% for the full year. Excluding Summit, net written premiums for the full year increased by 19%. Renewal pricing in this group was up 1% for the quarter. The average rate increase for this group during 2014 was 2%.

The Specialty Financial Group reported an underwriting profit of $18 million for the fourth quarter of 2014, compared to $17 million for the same period a year ago. Higher underwriting profits in our surety and fidelity and financial institutions businesses were partially offset by lower underwriting profitability in our trade credit business. Nearly all businesses in this group continued to achieve excellent underwriting margins during 2014, with an overall combined operating ratio of 85.6% for the fourth quarter of 2014.

Gross written premiums were down 2% and net written premiums were down 1% in the 2014 fourth quarter when compared to the 2013 fourth quarter, primarily due to the October 2013 sale of a service contract business, which ceded all of its premiums under reinsurance contracts. Full year net written premiums were flat when compared to amounts reported in 2013. Pricing in this group was flat for the quarter and down about 1% on average for the full year of 2014.

Carl Lindner III stated: “I’m pleased with our strong underwriting results for the fourth quarter and full year of 2014. The overall performance of our specialty casualty businesses and consistently superior underwriting profitability of the businesses within our specialty financial group have contributed to these results. Although focused efforts to improve profitability in some of our property and

 

Page 3


transportation businesses have been effective, we still have work to do to strengthen results in our transportation and international businesses. With the exception of the impact of commodity prices on our crop business, we reported growth in net written premiums in nearly all of our specialty P&C businesses during 2014. Over two-thirds of these businesses were successful in achieving pricing increases during year, with an average overall renewal rate increase of approximately 2% for the quarter and 3% for the year.

“Looking ahead to 2015, we are forecasting an overall calendar year combined ratio in the 92% to 94% range. Although we have experienced pricing deceleration in many of our business units, we will keep our focus on maintaining adequate rates. We are targeting growth in net written premium in the range of 4% to 8% for 2015.”

Annuity Segment

AFG’s Annuity segment contributed $85 million in core pretax operating earnings in the fourth quarter of 2014 compared to $92 million in the fourth quarter of 2013, a decrease of 8%. The decrease was largely the result of the impact of fair value accounting for fixed-indexed annuities (FIAs) on fourth quarter annuity earnings, which is detailed in the table below:

Components of Core Annuity Operating Earnings Before Income Taxes

 

In millions    Three months ended
December 31,
     Pct.
Change
 
     2014     2013         

Annuity earnings before fair value accounting for FIAs

   $ 93      $ 86         8

Impact of Fair Value Accounting for FIAs

     (8     6         nm   
  

 

 

   

 

 

    

Core Pretax Annuity Operating Earnings

   $ 85      $ 92         (8 %) 
  

 

 

   

 

 

    

Annuity Earnings Before Fair Value Accounting for FIAs

AFG’s 2014 earnings continued to benefit from growth in annuity assets and the favorable impact of lower than expected surrenders. AFG’s quarterly average annuity investments and reserves grew approximately 14% and 15%, respectively, year-over-year; however, the impact of this growth was partially offset by the runoff of higher yielding investments. In addition, fourth quarter earnings in both years benefitted from unanticipated investment and other income. In the fourth quarters of 2014 and 2013, AFG conducted a detailed review (“unlocking”) of the major actuarial assumptions underlying its annuity operations; the results of the unlocking review were immaterial in both the fourth quarters of 2014 and 2013.

Impact of Fair Value Accounting for FIAs

Interest rate and stock market fluctuations have an impact on the accounting for FIAs; these accounting adjustments are recognized through AFG’s reported core earnings. In the fourth quarter of 2014, the combination of an increase in the stock market but a decrease in longer-term interest rates (as measured by the Corporate A2 rate) resulted in an unfavorable impact on earnings. Conversely, in the fourth quarter of 2013, the combination of a much larger increase in the stock market and a moderate increase in longer-term interest rates resulted in a favorable impact on earnings.

The Annuity segment reported statutory premiums of $971 million in the fourth quarter of 2014. While this represents a 30% decrease from the fourth quarter of 2013 – which established a record level of annuity premiums for AFG and occurred in a favorable interest rate environment – it also reflects a 20% increase in premiums over the third quarter of 2014. Furthermore, despite the low interest rate environment, AFG’s $3.7 billion of annuity premiums in 2014 represents the second highest level of annuity premiums in the Company’s history.

 

Page 4


Craig Lindner stated, “I am pleased with our strong core annuity earnings in the fourth quarter and full year 2014. Looking ahead to 2015, we believe that the decrease in interest rates is likely to put downward pressure on core annuity earnings in the first quarter due to fair value accounting for FIAs. For the full year, we expect reported core pretax annuity operating earnings to be about the same in 2015 when compared to 2014. While we expect average annuity assets and reserves to grow around 10% in 2015, this growth will be largely offset by the impact that low interest rates are expected to have on the Company’s investment portfolio. Significant changes in interest rates and/or the stock market from today’s level could lead to additional positive or negative impacts on the Annuity segment’s results.

“We remain committed to our disciplined product pricing strategy, which means that our focus is on growing our business when we can achieve desired long-term returns. The interest rate environment in 2015 is expected to slow the pace of our annuity sales. As a result, based on information currently available, we now expect that premiums for the full year of 2015 will be relatively flat or down slightly compared to 2014.”

More information about premiums and the results of operations for our Annuity segment may be found in our Quarterly Investor Supplement, which is posted on our website.

Run-off Long-Term Care and Life Segment

AFG’s Run-off Long-term Care and Life segment reported a core pretax operating loss of $7 million in the fourth quarter of 2014 compared to a core pretax operating loss of $3 million in the comparable prior year period. Included in the results for the fourth quarter of 2014 is a $5 million loss on the commutation of a long-term care reinsurance agreement.

In the fourth quarter of 2014, with the assistance of an external actuarial consulting firm, AFG completed its review of the major actuarial assumptions for its run-off long-term care business, which resulted in no charge to earnings and an updated net loss recognition margin of $11 million. The $53 million decrease in AFG’s long-term care loss recognition margin since year end 2013 is due primarily to the drop in interest rates in 2014.

Investments

AFG recorded fourth quarter 2014 net realized gains on securities of $5 million after tax and after deferred acquisition costs (DAC), compared to $41 million in the fourth quarter of 2013. Unrealized gains on fixed maturities were $604 million after tax and after DAC at December 31, 2014, an increase of $2 million from September 30, 2014, and $163 million from year-end 2013. Our portfolio continues to be high quality, with 87% of our fixed maturity portfolio rated investment grade and 97% with a National Association of Insurance Commissioners’ designation of NAIC 1or 2, its highest two categories.

For the year ended December 31, 2014, P&C net investment income was approximately 12% higher than the prior year, reflecting the investment of cash received in connection with the Summit acquisition.

More information about the components of our investment portfolio may be found in our Quarterly Investor Supplement, which is posted on our website.

 

Page 5


About American Financial Group, Inc.

American Financial Group is an insurance holding company, based in Cincinnati, Ohio with assets of over $45 billion. Through the operations of Great American Insurance Group, AFG is engaged primarily in property and casualty insurance, focusing on specialized commercial products for businesses, and in the sale of fixed and fixed-indexed annuities in the retail, financial institutions and education markets. Great American Insurance Group’s roots go back to 1872 with the founding of its flagship company, Great American Insurance Company.

Forward Looking Statements

This press release contains certain statements that may be deemed to be “forward-looking statements” within the meaning of Section 27A of the Securities Act of 1933 and Section 21E of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934. All statements in this press release not dealing with historical results are forward-looking and are based on estimates, assumptions and projections. Examples of such forward-looking statements include statements relating to: the Company’s expectations concerning market and other conditions and their effect on future premiums, revenues, earnings and investment activities; recoverability of asset values; expected losses and the adequacy of reserves for long-term care, asbestos, environmental pollution and mass tort claims; rate changes; and improved loss experience.

Actual results and/or financial condition could differ materially from those contained in or implied by such forward-looking statements for a variety of reasons including but not limited to: changes in financial, political and economic conditions, including changes in interest and inflation rates, currency fluctuations and extended economic recessions or expansions in the U.S. and/or abroad; performance of securities markets; AFG’s ability to estimate accurately the likelihood, magnitude and timing of any losses in connection with investments in the non-agency residential mortgage market; new legislation or declines in credit quality or credit ratings that could have a material impact on the valuation of securities in AFG’s investment portfolio; the availability of capital; regulatory actions (including changes in statutory accounting rules); changes in the legal environment affecting AFG or its customers; tax law and accounting changes; levels of natural catastrophes and severe weather, terrorist activities (including any nuclear, biological, chemical or radiological events), incidents of war or losses resulting from civil unrest and other major losses; development of insurance loss reserves and establishment of other reserves, particularly with respect to amounts associated with asbestos and environmental claims and AFG’s run-off long-term care business; availability of reinsurance and ability of reinsurers to pay their obligations; trends in persistency, mortality and morbidity; competitive pressures, including those in the annuity distribution channels, the ability to obtain adequate rates and policy terms; changes in AFG’s credit ratings or the financial strength ratings assigned by major ratings agencies to our operating subsidiaries; and other factors identified in our filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission.

The forward-looking statements herein are made only as of the date of this press release. The Company assumes no obligation to publicly update any forward-looking statements.

Conference Call

The company will hold a conference call to discuss 2014 fourth quarter and full year results at 11:30 am (ET) tomorrow, Tuesday, February 3, 2015. Toll-free telephone access will be available by dialing 877-459-8719 (international dial-in 424-276-6843). The conference ID for the live call is 63019020. Please dial in five to ten minutes prior to the scheduled start time of the call.

 

Page 6


A replay will be available two hours following the completion of the call and will remain available until 11:59 pm (ET) on February 10, 2015. To listen to the replay, dial 1-855-859-2056 (international dial-in 404-537-3406) and provide the conference ID 63019020.

The conference and accompanying webcast slides will also be broadcast live over the Internet. To listen to the call via the Internet, go to the Investor Relations page on AFG’s website, www.AFGinc.com, and follow the instructions at the Webcasts and Presentations link.

The archived webcast will be available immediately after the call via the same link on the Investor Relations page until February 10, 2015 at 11:59 pm (ET). An archived audio MP3 file will be available within 24 hours of the call.

Contact:

Diane P. Weidner

Asst. Vice President - Investor Relations

513-369-5713

Websites:

www.AFGinc.com

www.GreatAmericanInsuranceGroup.com

# # #

(Financial summaries follow)

This earnings release and AFG’s Quarterly Investor Supplement are available in the Investor Relations section of AFG’s website: www.AFGinc.com.

AFG15-03

 

Page 7


AMERICAN FINANCIAL GROUP, INC. AND SUBSIDIARIES

SUMMARY OF EARNINGS AND SELECTED BALANCE SHEET DATA

(In Millions, Except Per Share Data)

 

     Three months ended
December 31,
     Twelve months ended
December 31,
 
     2014     2013      2014     2013  

Revenues

         

P&C insurance net earned premiums

   $ 1,061      $ 859       $ 3,878      $ 3,204   

Life, accident & health net earned premiums

     26        27         108        114   

Net investment income

     384        350         1,501        1,346   

Realized gains

     8        63         52        217   

Income (loss) of managed investment entities:

         

Investment income

     32        30         116        128   

Gain (loss) on change in fair value of assets/liabilities

     (9     7         (44     (14

Other income

     27        26         102        97   
  

 

 

   

 

 

    

 

 

   

 

 

 

Total revenues

     1,529        1,362         5,713        5,092   
  

 

 

   

 

 

    

 

 

   

 

 

 

Costs and expenses

         

P&C insurance losses & expenses

     982        784         3,666        3,059   

Annuity, life, accident & health benefits & expenses

     253        216         985        858   

Interest charges on borrowed money

     20        17         73        71   

Expenses of managed investment entities

     22        21         82        89   

Other expenses

     62        78         281        326   
  

 

 

   

 

 

    

 

 

   

 

 

 

Total costs and expenses

     1,339        1,116         5,087        4,403   
  

 

 

   

 

 

    

 

 

   

 

 

 

Earnings before income taxes

     190        246         626        689   

Provision for income taxes(c)

     65        81         220        236   
  

 

 

   

 

 

    

 

 

   

 

 

 

Net earnings including noncontrolling interests

     125        165         406        453   

Less: Net earnings (loss) attributable to noncontrolling interests

     (2     7         (46     (18
  

 

 

   

 

 

    

 

 

   

 

 

 

Net earnings attributable to shareholders

   $ 127      $ 158       $ 452      $ 471   
  

 

 

   

 

 

    

 

 

   

 

 

 

Diluted Earnings per Common Share

   $ 1.41      $ 1.73       $ 4.97      $ 5.16   
  

 

 

   

 

 

    

 

 

   

 

 

 

Average number of diluted shares

     89.8        91.4         91.0        91.2   

 

     December 31,      December 31,  
     2014      2013  

Selected Balance Sheet Data:

     

Total cash and investments

   $ 36,210       $ 31,313   

Long-term debt

   $ 1,061       $ 913   

Shareholders’ equity(d)

   $ 4,879       $ 4,599   

Shareholders’ equity (excluding appropriated retained earnings and unrealized gains/losses on fixed maturities)(d)

   $ 4,277       $ 4,109   

Book Value Per Share:

     

Excluding appropriated retained earnings

   $ 55.65       $ 50.83   

Excluding appropriated retained earnings and unrealized gains/losses on fixed maturities

   $ 48.76       $ 45.90   

Common Shares Outstanding

     87.7         89.5   

Footnotes (c) and (d) are contained in the accompanying Notes to Financial Schedules at the end of this release.


AMERICAN FINANCIAL GROUP, INC.

SPECIALTY P&C OPERATIONS

(Dollars in Millions)

 

     Three months ended
December 31,
    Pct.
Change
    Twelve months ended
December 31,
    Pct.
Change
 
     2014     2013           2014     2013        

Gross written premiums

   $ 1,303      $ 1,071        22   $ 5,477      $ 4,805        14
  

 

 

   

 

 

     

 

 

   

 

 

   

Net written premiums

   $ 1,025      $ 821        25   $ 4,020      $ 3,341        20
  

 

 

   

 

 

     

 

 

   

 

 

   

Ratios (GAAP):

            

Loss & LAE ratio

     64.0     62.4       63.7     61.7  

Underwriting expense ratio

     28.6     28.9       30.2     31.8  
  

 

 

   

 

 

     

 

 

   

 

 

   

Specialty Combined Ratio

     92.6     91.3       93.9     93.5  
  

 

 

   

 

 

     

 

 

   

 

 

   

Combined Ratio (Including A&E)

     92.6     91.4       94.5     95.5  
  

 

 

   

 

 

     

 

 

   

 

 

   

Supplemental Information:(e)

            

Gross Written Premiums:

            

Property & Transportation

   $ 482      $ 447        8   $ 2,342      $ 2,392        (2 %) 

Specialty Casualty

     660        459        44     2,529        1,790        41

Specialty Financial

     160        164        (2 %)      605        622        (3 %) 

Other

     1        1        —          1        1        —     
  

 

 

   

 

 

     

 

 

   

 

 

   
   $ 1,303      $ 1,071        22   $ 5,477      $ 4,805        14
  

 

 

   

 

 

     

 

 

   

 

 

   

Net Written Premiums:

            

Property & Transportation

   $ 373      $ 349        7   $ 1,566      $ 1,547        1

Specialty Casualty

     498        321        55     1,864        1,224        52

Specialty Financial

     131        132        (1 %)      488        486        —     

Other

     23        19        21     102        84        21
  

 

 

   

 

 

     

 

 

   

 

 

   
   $ 1,025      $ 821        25   $ 4,020      $ 3,341        20
  

 

 

   

 

 

     

 

 

   

 

 

   

Combined Ratio (GAAP):

            

Property & Transportation

     94.6     95.8       98.7     99.2  

Specialty Casualty

     92.9     89.7       92.3     90.9  

Specialty Financial

     85.6     85.2       86.5     85.6  

Aggregate Specialty Group

     92.6     91.3       93.9     93.5  

 

     Three months ended
December 31,
    Twelve months ended
December 31,
 
     2014     2013     2014     2013  

Reserve Development (Favorable)/Adverse:

        

Property & Transportation

   $ 3      $ 3      $ 16      $ (1

Specialty Casualty

     14        2        (7     (40

Specialty Financial

     (4     (4     (17     (14

Other

     (3     (6     (11     (20
  

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

 

Aggregate Specialty Group Excluding A&E

     10        (5     (19     (75

Special A&E Reserve Charge – P&C Run-off

     —          —          24        54   

Other

     —          —          1        6   
  

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

 

Total Reserve Development Including A&E

   $ 10      $ (5   $ 6      $ (15
  

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

 

Points on Combined Ratio:

        

Property & Transportation

     0.6        0.8        1.0        (0.1

Specialty Casualty

     2.9        0.5        (0.4     (3.6

Specialty Financial

     (3.3     (3.2     (3.7     (3.0

Aggregate Specialty Group

     1.0        (0.5     (0.5     (2.4

Footnote (e) is contained in the accompanying Notes to Financial Schedules at the end of this release.


AMERICAN FINANCIAL GROUP, INC.

ANNUITY SEGMENT

(Dollars in Millions)

Components of Statutory Premiums

 

     Three months ended
December 31,
     Pct.
Change
    Twelve months ended
December 31,
     Pct.
Change
 
     2014      2013            2014      2013         

Annuity Premiums:

                

Retail Single Premium

   $ 424       $ 618         (31 %)    $ 1,634       $ 2,044         (20 %) 

Financial Institutions Single Premium

     487         699         (30 %)      1,821         1,730         5

Education Market

     49         51         (4 %)      194         207         (6 %) 

Variable Annuities

     11         13         (15 %)      47         52         (10 %) 
  

 

 

    

 

 

      

 

 

    

 

 

    

Total Annuity Premiums

   $ 971       $ 1,381         (30 %)    $ 3,696       $ 4,033         (8 %) 
  

 

 

    

 

 

      

 

 

    

 

 

    

Components of Core Operating Earnings Before Income Taxes

 

     Three months ended
December 31,
     Pct.
Change
    Twelve months ended
December 31,
     Pct.
Change
 
     2014      2013            2014      2013         

Revenues:

                

Net investment income

   $ 285       $ 270         6   $ 1,136       $ 1,034         10

Other income

     21         21         —          78         67         16
  

 

 

    

 

 

      

 

 

    

 

 

    

Total revenues

     306         291         5     1,214         1,101         10

Costs and Expenses:

                

Annuity benefits

     157         137         15     648         531         22

Acquisition expenses

     47         35         34     156         149         5

Other expenses

     17         27         (37 %)      82         93         (12 %) 
  

 

 

    

 

 

      

 

 

    

 

 

    

Total costs and expenses

     221         199         11     886         773         15
  

 

 

    

 

 

      

 

 

    

 

 

    

Core operating earnings before income taxes

   $ 85       $ 92         (8 %)    $ 328       $ 328         —     
  

 

 

    

 

 

      

 

 

    

 

 

    

Supplemental Fixed Annuity Information

 

     Three months ended
December 31,
    Pct.
Change
    Twelve months ended
December 31,
    Pct.
Change
 
     2014     2013           2014     2013        

Core Operating Earnings Before impact of fair value accounting on FIAs

   $ 93      $ 86        8   $ 362      $ 313        16

Impact of Fair Value Accounting

     (8     6        nm        (34     15        nm   
  

 

 

   

 

 

     

 

 

   

 

 

   

Core operating earnings before income taxes

   $ 85      $ 92        (8 %)    $ 328      $ 328        —     
  

 

 

   

 

 

     

 

 

   

 

 

   

Average Fixed Annuity Reserves*

   $ 23,104      $ 20,092        15   $ 22,119      $ 18,696        18

Net Interest Spread

     2.64     2.86       2.78     2.94  

Net Spread Earned Before Impact of Fair Value Accounting*

     1.54     1.55       1.56     1.52  

Net Spread Earned After Impact of Fair Value Accounting

     1.40     1.67       1.41     1.60  

 

* Excludes fixed annuity portion of variable annuity business.


AMERICAN FINANCIAL GROUP, INC.

Notes to Financial Schedules

 

a) Components of core net operating earnings (in millions):

 

     Three months ended
December 31,
    Twelve months ended
December 31,
 
     2014     2013     2014     2013  

Core Operating Earnings before Income Taxes:

        

P&C insurance segment

Annuity segment

   $

 

141

85

  

  

  $

 

131

92

  

  

  $

 

476

328

  

  

  $

 

422

328

  

  

Run-off long-term care and life segment

     (7     (3     (10     (10

Interest & other corporate expense

     (35     (45     (143     (168
  

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

 

Core operating earnings before income taxes

     184        175        651        572   

Related income taxes

     62        58        212        187   
  

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

 

Core net operating earnings

   $ 122      $ 117      $ 439      $ 385   
  

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

 

 

b) Reflects the following effects of special A&E charges during the twelve months ended December 31, 2014 and 2013 (dollars in millions, except per share amounts):

 

     Pretax      After-tax      EPS  
     2014      2013      2014      2013      2014      2013  

A&E Charge:

                 

P&C insurance run-off operations

                 

Asbestos

   $ 4       $ 16       $ 3       $ 10         

Environmental

     20         38         12         25         
   $ 24       $ 54       $ 15       $ 35       $ 0.17       $ 0.39   

Former railroad & manufacturing operations

                 

Asbestos

   $ —         $ 2       $ —         $ 1         

Environmental

     6         20         4         13         
   $ 6       $ 22       $ 4       $ 14       $ 0.04       $ 0.15   

Total A&E

   $ 30       $ 76       $ 19       $ 49       $ 0.21       $ 0.54   

 

c) Earnings before income taxes include $4 million and $51 million in non-deductible losses attributable to noncontrolling interests related to managed investment entities in the fourth quarter and full year of 2014, respectively, and $4 million of non-taxable income and $26 million in non-deductible losses in the fourth quarter and full year of 2013, respectively.

 

d) Shareholders’ Equity at December 31, 2014 includes $604 million ($6.89 per share) in unrealized after-tax gains on fixed maturities and ($2) million ($0.03 per share) of retained earnings appropriated to managed investment entities. Shareholders’ Equity at December 31, 2013 includes $441 million ($4.93 per share) in unrealized after-tax gains on fixed maturities and $49 million ($0.55 per share) of retained earnings appropriated to managed investment entities. The appropriated retained earnings will ultimately inure to the benefit of the debt holders of the investment entities managed by AFG.

 

e) Supplemental Notes:

 

    Property & Transportation includes primarily physical damage and liability coverage for buses, trucks and recreational vehicles, inland and ocean marine, agricultural-related products and other property coverages.

 

    Specialty Casualty includes primarily excess and surplus, general liability, executive liability, professional liability, umbrella and excess liability, specialty coverages in targeted markets, customized programs for small to mid-sized businesses and workers’ compensation insurance.

 

    Specialty Financial includes risk management insurance programs for leasing and financing institutions (including collateral and lender-placed mortgage property insurance), surety and fidelity products and trade credit insurance.

 

    Other includes an internal reinsurance facility.
EX-99.2 3 d864656dex992.htm INVESTOR SUPPLEMENT Investor Supplement

Exhibit 99.2

 

LOGO

 
 
  American Financial Group, Inc.
 

 

Investor Supplement - Fourth Quarter 2014

 

 

February 2, 2015

  American Financial Group, Inc.
  Corporate Headquarters
  Great American Insurance Group Tower
  301 E Fourth Street
  Cincinnati, OH 45202
  513 579 6739


 

American Financial Group, Inc.

Table of Contents - Investor Supplement - Fourth Quarter 2014

   LOGO

 

Section

   Page  

Table of Contents - Investor Supplement - Fourth Quarter 2014

     2   

Financial Highlights

     3   

Summary of Earnings

     4   

Earnings Per Share Summary

     5   

Property and Casualty Insurance Segment

  

Property and Casualty Insurance - Summary Underwriting Results (GAAP)

     6   

Specialty - Underwriting Results (GAAP)

     7   

Property and Transportation - Underwriting Results (GAAP)

     8   

Specialty Casualty - Underwriting Results (GAAP)

     9   

Specialty Financial - Underwriting Results (GAAP)

     10   

Other Specialty - Underwriting Results (GAAP)

     11   

Annuity Segment

  

Annuity Earnings (GAAP)

     12   

Detail of Annuity Benefits Expense (GAAP)

     13   

Net Spread on Fixed Annuities (GAAP)

     14   

Annuity Premiums (Statutory)

     15   

Fixed Annuity Benefits Accumulated (GAAP)

     16   

Consolidated Balance Sheet / Book Value / Debt

  

Consolidated Balance Sheet

     17   

Book Value Per Share and Price / Book Summary

     18   

Capitalization

     19   

Additional Supplemental Information

     20   

Consolidated Investment Supplement

  

Total Cash and Investments and Quarterly Net Investment Income

     21   

Fixed Maturities - By Security Type - AFG Consolidated

     22   

Fixed Maturities - By Security Type Portfolio

     23   

Fixed Maturities - Credit Rating and NAIC Designation

     24   

Mortgage-Backed Securities - AFG Consolidated

     25   

Mortgage-Backed Securities Portfolio

     26   

Mortgage-Backed Securities - Credit Rating and NAIC Designation

     27   

Appendix

  

Attribution of Changes in Long-Term Care Net Loss Recognition Margin

     28   

Reinvestment Rates Used in Loss Recognition Testing and Annuity Unlocking

     29   

 

2


 

American Financial Group, Inc.

Financial Highlights

(in millions, except per share information)

   LOGO

 

     Three Months Ended     Twelve Months Ended  
     12/31/14     09/30/14     06/30/14     03/31/14     12/31/13     12/31/14     12/31/13  

Highlights

              

Core net operating earnings

   $ 122      $ 127      $ 99      $ 91      $ 117      $ 439      $ 385   

Net earnings

     127        116        106        103        158        452        471   

Total assets

     47,535        46,552        45,355        42,770        42,087        47,535        42,087   

Adjusted shareholders’ equity (a)

     4,277        4,300        4,298        4,191        4,109        4,277        4,109   

Property and Casualty net written premiums

     1,025        1,242        998        755        821        4,020        3,341   

Annuity statutory premiums

     971        809        949        967        1,381        3,696        4,033   

Per share data

              

Core net operating earnings per share

   $ 1.35      $ 1.40      $ 1.07      $ 1.00      $ 1.28      $ 4.82      $ 4.22   

Diluted earnings per share

     1.41        1.28        1.15        1.13        1.73        4.97        5.16   

Adjusted book value per share (a)

     48.76        48.59        47.95        46.79        45.90        48.76        45.90   

Cash dividends per common share

     1.250        0.220        0.220        0.220        1.220        1.910        1.805   

Financial ratios

              

Annualized core operating return on equity (b)

     11.7     12.3     9.6     9.1     11.8     10.7     10.0

Annualized return on equity (b)

     12.1     11.1     10.3     10.3     16.0     11.0     12.3

Property and Casualty combined ratio - Specialty:

              

Loss & LAE ratio

     64.0     67.1     64.6     56.9     62.4     63.7     61.7

Underwriting expense ratio

     28.6     26.7     32.3     35.3     28.9     30.2     31.8
  

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

 

Combined ratio - Specialty

     92.6     93.8     96.9     92.2     91.3     93.9     93.5
  

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

 

Net spread on fixed annuities:

              

Net interest spread

     2.64     2.77     2.92     2.81     2.86     2.78     2.94

Net spread earned:

              

Before impact of fair value accounting

     1.54     1.50     1.64     1.58     1.55     1.56     1.52

Impact of fair value accounting (c)

     (0.14 %)      (0.02 %)      (0.18 %)      (0.28 %)      0.12     (0.15 %)      0.08
  

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

 

After impact of fair value accounting

     1.40     1.48     1.46     1.30     1.67     1.41     1.60
  

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

 

 

(a) Excludes appropriated retained earnings and unrealized gains related to fixed maturity investments.
(b) Excludes appropriated retained earnings and accumulated other comprehensive income.
(c) Change in fair value of derivatives offset by the estimated related adjustments to amortization of deferred sales inducements and deferred policy acquisition costs.

 

3


 

American Financial Group, Inc.

Summary of Earnings

($ in millions)

   LOGO

 

     Three Months Ended     Twelve Months Ended  
     12/31/14     09/30/14     06/30/14     03/31/14     12/31/13     12/31/14     12/31/13  

Property and Casualty Insurance

              

Underwriting profit

   $ 79      $ 70      $ 29      $ 58      $ 75      $ 236      $ 199   

Net investment income

     75        76        76        67        67        294        263   

Other expense

     (13     (16     (8     (17     (11     (54     (40
  

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

 

Property and Casualty Insurance operating earnings

     141        130        97        108        131        476        422   

Annuity earnings

     85        86        84        73        92        328        328   

Run-off Long-Term Care and Life (losses)/earnings

     (7     1        (2     (2     (3     (10     (10

Interest expense of parent holding companies

     (19     (17     (16     (17     (17     (69     (68

Other expense

     (16     (13     (21     (24     (28     (74     (100
  

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

 

Pre-tax core operating earnings

     184        187        142        138        175        651        572   

Income tax expense

     62        60        43        47        58        212        187   
  

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

 

Core net operating earnings

     122        127        99        91        117        439        385   

Non-core items, net of tax:

              

Realized gains

     5        8        7        12        41        32        138   

Significant A&E charges:

              

Property and Casualty Insurance run-off operations

     —          (15     —          —          —          (15     (35

Former Railroad and Manufacturing operations

     —          (4     —          —          —          (4     (14

ELNY guaranty fund assessments charge (a)

     —          —          —          —          —          —          (3
  

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

 

Net earnings

   $ 127      $ 116      $ 106      $ 103      $ 158      $ 452      $ 471   
  

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

 

 

(a) The ELNY guaranty fund assessments charge represent guaranty fund assessments in connection with the insolvency and liquidation of Executive Life Insurance Company of New York, an unaffiliated life insurance company.

 

4


 

American Financial Group, Inc.

Earnings Per Share Summary

(in millions, except per share information)

   LOGO

 

     Three Months Ended      Twelve Months Ended  
     12/31/14      09/30/14     06/30/14      03/31/14      12/31/13      12/31/14     12/31/13  

Core net operating earnings

   $ 122       $ 127      $ 99       $ 91       $ 117       $ 439      $ 385   
  

 

 

    

 

 

   

 

 

    

 

 

    

 

 

    

 

 

   

 

 

 

Net earnings

   $ 127       $ 116      $ 106       $ 103       $ 158       $ 452      $ 471   
  

 

 

    

 

 

   

 

 

    

 

 

    

 

 

    

 

 

   

 

 

 

Average number of diluted shares

     89.772         90.873        91.593         91.621         91.438         90.960        91.242   

Diluted earnings per share:

                  

Core net operating earnings per share

   $ 1.35       $ 1.40      $ 1.07       $ 1.00       $ 1.28       $ 4.82      $ 4.22   

Realized gains

     0.06         0.09        0.08         0.13         0.45         0.36        1.52   

Significant A&E charges:

                  

Property and Casualty Insurance run-off operations

     —           (0.17     —           —           —           (0.17     (0.39

Former Railroad and Manufacturing operations

     —           (0.04     —           —           —           (0.04     (0.15

ELNY guaranty fund assessments charge (a)

     —           —          —           —           —           —          (0.04
  

 

 

    

 

 

   

 

 

    

 

 

    

 

 

    

 

 

   

 

 

 

Diluted earnings per share

   $ 1.41       $ 1.28      $ 1.15       $ 1.13       $ 1.73       $ 4.97      $ 5.16   
  

 

 

    

 

 

   

 

 

    

 

 

    

 

 

    

 

 

   

 

 

 

 

(a) The ELNY guaranty fund assessments charge represent guaranty fund assessments in connection with the insolvency and liquidation of Executive Life Insurance Company of New York, an unaffiliated life insurance company.

 

5


 

American Financial Group, Inc.

Property and Casualty Insurance - Summary Underwriting Results (GAAP)

($ in millions)

   LOGO

 

     Three Months Ended     Twelve Months Ended  
     12/31/14     09/30/14     06/30/14     03/31/14     12/31/13     12/31/14     12/31/13  

Property and Transportation

   $ 22      $ 11      $ (18   $ 6      $ 17      $ 21      $ 12   

Specialty Casualty

     36        32        30        38        32        136        102   

Specialty Financial

     18        21        15        10        17        64        67   

Other Specialty

     3        6        2        5        9        16        25   
  

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

 

Underwriting profit - Specialty

     79        70        29        59        75        237        206   

Other charges, included in loss and LAE

     —          —          —          1        —          1        7   
  

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

 

Underwriting profit - Core

     79        70        29        58        75        236        199   

Special A&E charges, included in loss and LAE

     —          (24     —          —          —          (24     (54
  

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

 

Underwriting profit - Property and Casualty Insurance

   $ 79      $ 46      $ 29      $ 58      $ 75      $ 212      $ 145   
  

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

 

Included in results above:

              

Current accident year catastrophe losses:

              

Catastrophe reinstatement premium

   $ —        $ —        $ —        $ —        $ —        $ —        $ —     

Catastrophe loss

     3        3        10        12        1        28        31   
  

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

 

Total current accident year catastrophe losses

   $ 3      $ 3      $ 10      $ 12      $ 1      $ 28      $ 31   
  

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

 

Prior year loss reserve development (favorable) / adverse

   $ 10      $ 13      $ 14      $ (31   $ (5   $ 6      $ (15
  

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

 

Combined ratio:

              

Property and Transportation

     94.6     97.8     105.5     98.1     95.8     98.7     99.2

Specialty Casualty

     92.9     93.3     93.6     87.8     89.7     92.3     90.9

Specialty Financial

     85.6     81.6     87.6     91.0     85.2     86.5     85.6

Other Specialty

     86.9     78.0     89.0     79.9     60.4     83.4     68.8

Combined ratio - Specialty

     92.6     93.8     96.9     92.2     91.3     93.9     93.5

Other core charges

     0.0     0.1     0.0     0.0     0.1     0.0     0.3

Special A&E charges

     0.0     2.1     0.0     0.0     0.0     0.6     1.7
  

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

 

Combined ratio

     92.6     96.0     96.9     92.2     91.4     94.5     95.5
  

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

 

Combined ratio excl. catastrophe and prior year development

     91.4     94.5     94.4     94.8     91.7     93.7     94.9
  

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

 

Loss and LAE components - property and casualty insurance

              

Current accident year, excluding catastrophe loss

     62.8     67.8     62.1     59.4     62.8     63.5     63.1

Prior accident year loss reserve development

     1.0     1.2     1.4     (4.1 %)      (0.4 %)      0.1     (0.4 %) 

Current accident year catastrophe loss

     0.2     0.3     1.1     1.6     0.1     0.7     1.0
  

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

 

Loss and LAE ratio

     64.0     69.3     64.6     56.9     62.5     64.3     63.7
  

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

 

 

6


 

American Financial Group, Inc.

Specialty - Underwriting Results (GAAP)

($ in millions)

LOGO

 

 

     Three Months Ended     Twelve Months Ended  
     12/31/14     09/30/14     06/30/14     03/31/14     12/31/13     12/31/14     12/31/13  

Gross written premiums

   $ 1,303      $ 1,859      $ 1,291      $ 1,024      $ 1,071      $ 5,477      $ 4,805   

Ceded reinsurance premiums

     (278     (617     (293     (269     (250     (1,457     (1,464
  

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

 

Net written premiums

  1,025      1,242      998      755      821      4,020      3,341   

Change in unearned premiums

  36      (110   (67   (1   38      (142   (137
  

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

 

Net earned premiums

  1,061      1,132      931      754      859      3,878      3,204   

Loss and LAE

  679      760      602      428      537      2,469      1,979   

Underwriting expense

  303      302      300      267      247      1,172      1,019   
  

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

 

Underwriting profit

$ 79    $ 70    $ 29    $ 59    $ 75    $ 237    $ 206   
  

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

 

Included in results above:

Current accident year catastrophe losses:

Catastrophe reinstatement premium

$ —      $ —      $ —      $ —      $ —      $ —      $ —     

Catastrophe loss

  3      3      10      12      1      28      31   
  

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

 

Total current accident year catastrophe losses

$ 3    $ 3    $ 10    $ 12    $ 1    $ 28    $ 31   
  

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

 

Prior year loss reserve development (favorable) / adverse

$ 10    $ (11 $ 14    $ (32 $ (5 $ (19 $ (75
  

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

 

Combined ratio:

Loss and LAE ratio

  64.0   67.1   64.6   56.9   62.4   63.7   61.7

Underwriting expense ratio

  28.6   26.7   32.3   35.3   28.9   30.2   31.8
  

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

 

Combined ratio

  92.6   93.8   96.9   92.2   91.3   93.9   93.5
  

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

 

Combined ratio excl. catastrophe and prior year development

  91.4   94.5   94.4   94.8   91.7   93.7   94.9
  

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

 

Loss and LAE components:

Current accident year, excluding catastrophe loss

  62.8   67.8   62.1   59.5   62.8   63.5   63.1

Prior accident year loss reserve development

  1.0   (1.0 %)    1.4   (4.2 %)    (0.5 %)    (0.5 %)    (2.4 %) 

Current accident year catastrophe loss

  0.2   0.3   1.1   1.6   0.1   0.7   1.0
  

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

 

Loss and LAE ratio

  64.0   67.1   64.6   56.9   62.4   63.7   61.7
  

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

 

 

7


 

American Financial Group, Inc.

Property and Transportation - Underwriting Results (GAAP)

($ in millions)

   LOGO

 

     Three Months Ended     Twelve Months Ended  
     12/31/14     09/30/14     06/30/14     03/31/14     12/31/13     12/31/14     12/31/13  

Gross written premiums

   $ 482      $ 995      $ 489      $ 376      $ 447      $ 2,342      $ 2,392   

Ceded reinsurance premiums

     (109     (439     (136     (92     (98     (776     (845
  

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

 

Net written premiums

     373        556        353        284        349        1,566        1,547   

Change in unearned premiums

     42        (52     (29     17        61        (22     (26
  

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

 

Net earned premiums

     415        504        324        301        410        1,544        1,521   

Loss and LAE

     299        407        248        201        307        1,155        1,142   

Underwriting expense

     94        86        94        94        86        368        367   
  

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

 

Underwriting profit (loss)

   $ 22      $ 11      $ (18   $ 6      $ 17      $ 21      $ 12   
  

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

 

Included in results above:

              

Current accident year catastrophe losses:

              

Catastrophe reinstatement premium

   $ —        $ —        $ —        $ —        $ —        $ —        $ —     

Catastrophe loss

     2        1        8        9        —          20        27   
  

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

 

Total current accident year catastrophe losses

   $ 2      $ 1      $ 8      $ 9      $ —        $ 20      $ 27   
  

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

 

Prior year loss reserve development (favorable) / adverse

   $ 3      $ (5   $ 22      $ (4   $ 3      $ 16      $ (1
  

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

 

Combined ratio:

              

Loss and LAE ratio

     72.2     80.7     76.4     67.0     74.9     74.9     75.1

Underwriting expense ratio

     22.4     17.1     29.1     31.1     20.9     23.8     24.1
  

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

 

Combined ratio

     94.6     97.8     105.5     98.1     95.8     98.7     99.2
  

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

 

Combined ratio excl. catastrophe and prior year development

     93.7     98.5     96.2     96.4     95.0     96.4     97.5
  

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

 

Loss and LAE components:

              

Current accident year, excluding catastrophe loss

     71.3     81.4     67.1     65.3     74.1     72.6     73.4

Prior accident year loss reserve development

     0.6     (0.9 %)      6.6     (1.1 %)      0.8     1.0     (0.1 %) 

Current accident year catastrophe loss

     0.3     0.2     2.7     2.8     0.0     1.3     1.8
  

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

 

Loss and LAE ratio

     72.2     80.7     76.4     67.0     74.9     74.9     75.1
  

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

 

 

8


 

American Financial Group, Inc.

Specialty Casualty - Underwriting Results (GAAP)

($ in millions)

   LOGO

 

     Three Months Ended     Twelve Months Ended  
     12/31/14     09/30/14     06/30/14     03/31/14     12/31/13     12/31/14     12/31/13  

Gross written premiums

   $ 660      $ 707      $ 655      $ 507      $ 459      $ 2,529      $ 1,790   

Ceded reinsurance premiums

     (162     (171     (156     (176     (138     (665     (566
  

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

 

Net written premiums

     498        536        499        331        321        1,864        1,224   

Change in unearned premiums

     1        (50     (32     (18     (11     (99     (89
  

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

 

Net earned premiums

     499        486        467        313        310        1,765        1,135   

Loss and LAE

     325        310        300        172        183        1,107        653   

Underwriting expense

     138        144        137        103        95        522        380   
  

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

 

Underwriting profit

   $ 36      $ 32      $ 30      $ 38      $ 32      $ 136      $ 102   
  

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

 

Included in results above:

              

Current accident year catastrophe losses:

              

Catastrophe reinstatement premium

   $ —        $ —        $ —        $ —        $ —        $ —        $ —     

Catastrophe loss

     1        1        1        1        —          4        1   
  

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

 

Total current accident year catastrophe losses

   $ 1      $ 1      $ 1      $ 1      $ —        $ 4      $ 1   
  

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

 

Prior year loss reserve development (favorable) / adverse

   $ 14      $ 7      $ (4   $ (24   $ 2      $ (7   $ (40
  

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

 

Combined ratio:

              

Loss and LAE ratio

     65.1     63.7     64.3     55.0     59.0     62.7     57.5

Underwriting expense ratio

     27.8     29.6     29.3     32.8     30.7     29.6     33.4
  

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

 

Combined ratio

     92.9     93.3     93.6     87.8     89.7     92.3     90.9
  

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

 

Combined ratio excl. catastrophe and prior year development

     89.9     91.6     94.3     95.1     89.2     92.5     94.4
  

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

 

Loss and LAE components:

              

Current accident year, excluding catastrophe loss

     62.1     62.0     65.0     62.3     58.5     62.9     61.0

Prior accident year loss reserve development

     2.9     1.3     (0.8 %)      (7.7 %)      0.5     (0.4 %)      (3.6 %) 

Current accident year catastrophe loss

     0.1     0.4     0.1     0.4     0.0     0.2     0.1
  

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

 

Loss and LAE ratio

     65.1     63.7     64.3     55.0     59.0     62.7     57.5
  

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

 

 

9


 

American Financial Group, Inc.

Specialty Financial - Underwriting Results (GAAP)

($ in millions)

   LOGO

 

     Three Months Ended     Twelve Months Ended  
     12/31/14     09/30/14     06/30/14     03/31/14     12/31/13     12/31/14     12/31/13  

Gross written premiums

   $ 160      $ 157      $ 147      $ 141      $ 164      $ 605      $ 622   

Ceded reinsurance premiums

     (29     (36     (27     (25     (32     (117     (136
  

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

 

Net written premiums

     131        121        120        116        132        488        486   

Change in unearned premiums

     (10     (6     (4     1        (13     (19     (17
  

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

 

Net earned premiums

     121        115        116        117        119        469        469   

Loss and LAE

     42        32        40        45        42        159        158   

Underwriting expense

     61        62        61        62        60        246        244   
  

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

 

Underwriting profit

   $ 18      $ 21      $ 15      $ 10      $ 17      $ 64      $ 67   
  

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

 

Included in results above:

              

Current accident year catastrophe losses:

              

Catastrophe reinstatement premium

   $ —        $ —        $ —        $ —        $ —        $ —        $ —     

Catastrophe loss

     —          —          1        2        1        3        3   
  

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

 

Total current accident year catastrophe losses

   $ —        $ —        $ 1      $ 2      $ 1      $ 3      $ 3   
  

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

 

Prior year loss reserve development (favorable) / adverse

   $ (4   $ (10   $ (2   $ (1   $ (4   $ (17   $ (14
  

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

 

Combined ratio:

              

Loss and LAE ratio

     34.5     27.7     35.3     37.9     34.2     33.9     33.5

Underwriting expense ratio

     51.1     53.9     52.3     53.1     51.0     52.6     52.1
  

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

 

Combined ratio

     85.6     81.6     87.6     91.0     85.2     86.5     85.6
  

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

 

Combined ratio excl. catastrophe and prior year development

     88.8     90.3     88.6     90.2     87.7     89.5     88.0
  

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

 

Loss and LAE components:

              

Current accident year, excluding catastrophe loss

     37.7     36.4     36.3     37.1     36.7     36.9     35.9

Prior accident year loss reserve development

     (3.3 %)      (9.0 %)      (1.8 %)      (0.7 %)      (3.2 %)      (3.7 %)      (3.0 %) 

Current accident year catastrophe loss

     0.1     0.3     0.8     1.5     0.7     0.7     0.6
  

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

 

Loss and LAE ratio

     34.5     27.7     35.3     37.9     34.2     33.9     33.5
  

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

 

 

10


 

American Financial Group, Inc.

Other Specialty - Underwriting Results (GAAP)

($ in millions)

   LOGO

 

     Three Months Ended     Twelve Months Ended  
     12/31/14     09/30/14     06/30/14     03/31/14     12/31/13     12/31/14     12/31/13  

Gross written premiums

   $ 1      $ —        $ —        $ —        $ 1      $ 1      $ 1   

Ceded reinsurance premiums

     22        29        26        24        18        101        83   
  

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

 

Net written premiums

     23        29        26        24        19        102        84   

Change in unearned premiums

     3        (2     (2     (1     1        (2     (5
  

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

 

Net earned premiums

     26        27        24        23        20        100        79   

Loss and LAE

     13        11        14        10        5        48        26   

Underwriting expense

     10        10        8        8        6        36        28   
  

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

 

Underwriting profit

   $ 3      $ 6      $ 2      $ 5      $ 9      $ 16      $ 25   
  

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

 

Included in results above:

              

Current accident year catastrophe losses:

              

Catastrophe reinstatement premium

   $ —        $ —        $ —        $ —        $ —        $ —        $ —     

Catastrophe loss

     —          1        —          —          —          1        —     
  

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

 

Total current accident year catastrophe losses

   $ —        $ 1      $ —        $ —        $ —        $ 1      $ —     
  

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

 

Prior year loss reserve development (favorable) / adverse

   $ (3   $ (3   $ (2   $ (3   $ (6   $ (11   $ (20
  

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

 

Combined ratio:

              

Loss and LAE ratio

     49.6     43.4     53.2     45.8     28.3     47.9     32.9

Underwriting expense ratio

     37.3     34.6     35.8     34.1     32.1     35.5     35.9
  

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

 

Combined ratio

     86.9     78.0     89.0     79.9     60.4     83.4     68.8
  

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

 

Combined ratio excl. catastrophe and prior year development

     97.4     85.6     97.1     91.4     87.5     92.8     93.6
  

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

 

 

11


 

American Financial Group, Inc.

Annuity Earnings (GAAP)

($ in millions)

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     Three Months Ended      Twelve Months Ended  
     12/31/14     09/30/14     06/30/14     03/31/14     12/31/13      12/31/14     12/31/13  

Net investment income

   $ 285      $ 287      $ 289      $ 275      $ 270       $ 1,136      $ 1,034   

Guaranteed withdrawal benefit fees

     9        9        8        8        7         34        25   

Policy charges and other miscellaneous income

     12        11        11        10        14         44        42   
  

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

    

 

 

   

 

 

 

Total revenues

  306      307      308      293      291      1,214      1,101   

Annuity benefits expense

  157      157      166      168      137      648      531   

Acquisition expenses

  47      41      37      31      35      156      149   

Other expenses

  17      23      21      21      27      82      93   
  

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

    

 

 

   

 

 

 

Total costs and expenses

  221      221      224      220      199      886      773   
  

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

    

 

 

   

 

 

 

Core Annuity earnings before income taxes

  85      86      84      73      92      328      328   

ELNY guaranty fund assessments charge before
income tax (a)

  —        —        —        —        —        —        (5
  

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

    

 

 

   

 

 

 

Annuity earnings before income taxes

$ 85    $ 86    $ 84    $ 73    $ 92    $ 328    $ 323   
  

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

    

 

 

   

 

 

 

Detail of core Annuity earnings before income taxes

Core earnings before income taxes and impact of fair value accounting

$ 93    $ 87    $ 94    $ 88    $ 86    $ 362    $ 313   

Impact of fair value accounting (b)

  (8   (1   (10   (15   6      (34   15   
  

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

    

 

 

   

 

 

 

Core Annuity earnings before income taxes

$ 85    $ 86    $ 84    $ 73    $ 92    $ 328    $ 328   
  

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

    

 

 

   

 

 

 

 

(a) The ELNY guaranty fund assessments charge represent guaranty fund assessments in connection with the insolvency and liquidation of Executive Life Insurance Company of New York, an unaffiliated life insurance company.
(b) Change in fair value of derivatives offset by the estimated related adjustments to amortization of deferred sales inducements and deferred policy acquisition costs.

 

12


 

American Financial Group, Inc.

Detail of Annuity Benefits Expense (GAAP)

($ in millions)

   LOGO

 

     Three Months Ended     Twelve Months Ended  
     12/31/14     09/30/14     06/30/14     03/31/14     12/31/13     12/31/14     12/31/13  

Detail of annuity benefits expense:

              

Interest credited - fixed

   $ 127      $ 126      $ 123      $ 121      $ 118      $ 497      $ 451   

Interest credited - fixed component of variable annuities

     1        2        2        1        1        6        6   

Change in expected death and annuitization reserve

     4        5        5        4        5        18        19   

Amortization of sales inducements

     6        7        6        7        7        26        30   

Guaranteed withdrawal benefit reserve

     11        12        10        8        10        41        38   

Change in other benefit reserves

     1        3        5        3        1        12        7   

Unlockings (a)

     (11     —          —          —          6        (11     6   
  

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

 

Subtotal before impact of fair value accounting

     139        155        151        144        148        589        557   

Embedded derivative mark-to-market (b)

     87        21        78        54        74        240        184   

Equity option mark-to-market

     (69     (19     (63     (30     (85     (181     (210
  

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

 

Subtotal impact of fair value accounting

     18        2        15        24        (11     59        (26
  

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

 

Total annuity benefits expense

   $ 157      $ 157      $ 166      $ 168      $ 137      $ 648      $ 531   
  

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

 

 

(a) Includes unlockings for fixed indexed annuity embedded derivative reserves, sales inducement asset and other reserves. Does not include unlocking charge of $10mm in 2014 and income of $4mm in 2013 for deferred policy acquisition costs and unearned revenue reserves. These unlockings are included in acquisition expenses. In total AFG recorded an unlocking expense reduction of $1mm in 2014 and an unlocking charge of $2mm in 2013.
(b) Excludes unlocking impact of ($58) million in 2014 and ($2) million in 2013.

 

13


 

American Financial Group, Inc.

Net Spread on Fixed Annuities (GAAP)

($ in millions)

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     Three Months Ended     Twelve Months Ended  
     12/31/14     09/30/14     06/30/14     03/31/14     12/31/13     12/31/14     12/31/13  

Average fixed annuity investments (at amortized cost)

   $ 23,334      $ 22,730      $ 22,098      $ 21,402      $ 20,524      $ 22,391      $ 19,151   

Average annuity benefits accumulated

     23,104        22,475        21,829        21,066        20,092        22,119        18,696   
  

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

 

Investments in excess of annuity benefits accumulated

$ 230    $ 255    $ 269    $ 336    $ 432    $ 272    $ 455   
  

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

 

As % of average annuity benefits accumulated (except as noted)

Net investment income (as % of investments)

  4.85   5.01   5.18   5.10   5.21   5.03   5.35

Interest credited

  (2.21 %)    (2.24 %)    (2.26 %)    (2.29 %)    (2.35 %)    (2.25 %)    (2.41 %) 
  

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

 

Net interest spread on fixed annuities

  2.64   2.77   2.92   2.81   2.86   2.78   2.94

Policy charges and other miscellaneous income

  0.14   0.14   0.14   0.13   0.22   0.14   0.16

Other annuity benefit expenses, net

  (0.20 %)    (0.33 %)    (0.33 %)    (0.27 %)    (0.31 %)    (0.28 %)    (0.37 %) 

Acquisition expenses

  (0.61 %)    (0.69 %)    (0.64 %)    (0.55 %)    (0.75 %)    (0.63 %)    (0.79 %) 

Other expenses

  (0.28 %)    (0.37 %)    (0.36 %)    (0.37 %)    (0.53 %)    (0.34 %)    (0.46 %) 

Change in fair value of derivatives

  (0.31 %)    (0.04 %)    (0.27 %)    (0.45 %)    0.22   (0.27 %)    0.13

Unlockings

  0.02   0.00   0.00   0.00   (0.04 %)    0.01   (0.01 %) 
  

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

 

Net spread earned on fixed annuities - core

  1.40   1.48   1.46   1.30   1.67   1.41   1.60
  

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

 

Average annuity benefits accumulated

$ 23,104    $ 22,475    $ 21,829    $ 21,066    $ 20,092    $ 22,119    $ 18,696   

Net spread earned on fixed annuities

  1.40   1.48   1.46   1.30   1.67   1.41   1.60
  

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

 

Earnings on fixed annuity benefits accumulated

$ 81    $ 83    $ 80    $ 68    $ 84    $ 312    $ 300   

Investments in excess of annuity benefits accumulated

$ 230    $ 255    $ 269    $ 336    $ 432    $ 272    $ 455   

Net investment income (as % of investments)

  4.85   5.01   5.18   5.10   5.21   5.03   5.35
  

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

 

Earnings on investments in excess of annuity benefits accumulated

$ 3    $ 3    $ 3    $ 5    $ 6    $ 14      24   

Variable annuity earnings

  1      —        1      —        2      2      4   
  

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

 

Earnings before income taxes - core

$ 85    $ 86    $ 84    $ 73    $ 92    $ 328    $ 328   
  

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

 

Detail of net spread earned on fixed annuities - core

Net spread earned core - before impact of fair value accounting

  1.54   1.50   1.64   1.58   1.55   1.56   1.52

Impact of fair value accounting (a)

  (0.14 %)    (0.02 %)    (0.18 %)    (0.28 %)    0.12   (0.15 %)    0.08
  

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

 

Net spread earned core - after impact of fair value accounting

  1.40   1.48   1.46   1.30   1.67   1.41   1.60
  

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

 

 

(a) Change in fair value of derivatives offset by the estimated related adjustments to amortization of deferred sales inducements and deferred policy acquisition costs.

 

14


 

American Financial Group

Annuity Premiums (Statutory)

($ in millions)

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     Three Months Ended      Twelve Months Ended  
     12/31/14      09/30/14      06/30/14      03/31/14      12/31/13      12/31/14      12/31/13  

Retail single premium annuities - indexed

   $ 405       $ 339       $ 403       $ 386       $ 565       $ 1,533       $ 1,879   

Retail single premium annuities - fixed

     19         18         25         39         53         101         165   

Financial institutions single premium annuities - indexed

     426         333         364         366         498         1,489         1,102   

Financial institutions single premium annuities - fixed

     61         62         95         114         201         332         628   

Education market - fixed and indexed annuities

     49         46         49         50         51         194         207   
  

 

 

    

 

 

    

 

 

    

 

 

    

 

 

    

 

 

    

 

 

 

Subtotal fixed annuity premiums

  960      798      936      955      1,368      3,649      3,981   

Variable annuities

  11      11      13      12      13      47      52   
  

 

 

    

 

 

    

 

 

    

 

 

    

 

 

    

 

 

    

 

 

 

Total annuity premiums

$ 971    $ 809    $ 949    $ 967    $ 1,381    $ 3,696    $ 4,033   
  

 

 

    

 

 

    

 

 

    

 

 

    

 

 

    

 

 

    

 

 

 

 

15


 

American Financial Group, Inc.

Fixed Annuity Benefits Accumulated (GAAP)

($ in millions)

LOGO

 

     Three Months Ended     Twelve Months Ended  
     12/31/14     09/30/14     06/30/14     03/31/14     12/31/13     12/31/14     12/31/13  

Beginning fixed annuity reserves

   $ 22,745      $ 22,205      $ 21,453      $ 20,679      $ 19,505      $ 20,679      $ 17,274   

Premiums

     960        798        936        955        1,368        3,649        3,981   

Federal Home Loan Bank advances

     —          —          —          —          —          —          200   

Surrenders, benefits and other withdrawals

     (464     (426     (408     (375     (408     (1,673     (1,493

Interest and other annuity benefit expenses:

              

Interest credited

     127        126        123        121        118        497        451   

Embedded derivative mark-to-market

     87        21        78        54        74        240        184   

Change in other benefit reserves

     18        21        23        19        18        81        78   

Unlockings

     (11     —          —          —          4        (11     4   
  

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

 

Ending fixed annuity reserves

$ 23,462    $ 22,745    $ 22,205    $ 21,453    $ 20,679    $ 23,462    $ 20,679   
  

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

 

Reconciliation to annuity benefits accumulated:

Ending fixed annuity reserves

$ 23,462    $ 22,745    $ 22,205    $ 21,453    $ 20,679    $ 23,462    $ 20,679   

Impact of unrealized investment gains on reserves

  111      107      117      97      71      111      71   

Fixed component of variable annuities

  191      192      194      194      194      191      194   
  

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

 

Annuity benefits accumulated per balance sheet

$ 23,764    $ 23,044    $ 22,516    $ 21,744    $ 20,944    $ 23,764    $ 20,944   
  

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

 

Annualized surrenders and other withdrawals as a % of beginning reserves

  8.2   7.7   7.6   7.3   8.4   8.1   8.6

 

16


 

American Financial Group, Inc.

Consolidated Balance Sheet

($ in millions)

   LOGO

 

     12/31/14     09/30/14     06/30/14     03/31/14     12/31/13     09/30/13  

Assets:

            

Total cash and investments

   $ 36,210      $ 35,151      $ 34,843      $ 32,727      $ 31,313      $ 29,921   

Recoverables from reinsurers

     3,238        3,134        3,107        2,969        3,157        3,138   

Prepaid reinsurance premiums

     469        587        489        438        408        662   

Agents’ balances and premiums receivable

     889        901        902        735        739        801   

Deferred policy acquisition costs

     821        858        806        890        975        867   

Assets of managed investment entities

     3,108        2,946        2,799        2,723        2,888        2,779   

Other receivables

     910        1,140        527        524        854        1,078   

Variable annuity assets (separate accounts)

     662        649        681        666        665        629   

Other assets

     1,027        985        1,001        913        903        887   

Goodwill

     201        201        200        185        185        185   
  

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

 

Total assets

   $ 47,535      $ 46,552      $ 45,355      $ 42,770      $ 42,087      $ 40,947   
  

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

 

Liabilities and Equity:

            

Unpaid losses and loss adjustment expenses

   $ 7,872      $ 7,645      $ 7,370      $ 6,134      $ 6,410      $ 6,441   

Unearned premiums

     1,956        2,114        1,911        1,788        1,757        2,047   

Annuity benefits accumulated

     23,764        23,044        22,516        21,744        20,944        19,785   

Life, accident and health reserves

     2,175        2,098        2,082        2,039        2,008        2,011   

Payable to reinsurers

     645        673        445        400        508        601   

Liabilities of managed investment entities

     2,819        2,625        2,499        2,413        2,567        2,429   

Long-term debt

     1,061        1,062        912        913        913        913   

Variable annuity liabilities (separate accounts)

     662        649        681        666        665        629   

Other liabilities

     1,527        1,564        1,781        1,700        1,546        1,381   
  

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

 

Total liabilities

   $ 42,481      $ 41,474      $ 40,197      $ 37,797      $ 37,318      $ 36,237   

Shareholders’ equity:

            

Common stock

   $ 88      $ 88      $ 90      $ 90      $ 90      $ 89   

Capital surplus

     1,152        1,150        1,152        1,138        1,123        1,109   

Appropriated retained earnings

     (2     2        31        49        49        45   

Unappropriated retained earnings

     2,914        2,946        2,913        2,842        2,777        2,729   

Unrealized gains - fixed maturities

     604        602        656        556        441        449   

Unrealized gains - equities

     139        124        149        129        121        119   

Other comprehensive income, net of tax

     (16     (8     (6     (8     (2     2   
  

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

 

Total shareholders’ equity

     4,879        4,904        4,985        4,796        4,599        4,542   

Noncontrolling interests

     175        174        173        177        170        168   
  

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

 

Total liabilities and equity

   $ 47,535      $ 46,552      $ 45,355      $ 42,770      $ 42,087      $ 40,947   
  

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

 

 

17


 

American Financial Group, Inc.

Book Value Per Share and Price / Book Summary

(in millions, except per share information)

   LOGO

 

     12/31/14     09/30/14     06/30/14     03/31/14     12/31/13     09/30/13  

Shareholders’ equity

   $ 4,879      $ 4,904      $ 4,985      $ 4,796      $ 4,599      $ 4,542   

Appropriated retained earnings

     2        (2     (31     (49     (49     (45
  

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

 

Shareholders’ equity, excluding appropriated retained earnings

     4,881        4,902        4,954        4,747        4,550        4,497   

Unrealized (gains) on fixed maturities

     (604     (602     (656     (556     (441     (449
  

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

 

Adjusted shareholders’ equity

     4,277        4,300        4,298        4,191        4,109        4,048   

Goodwill

     (201     (201     (200     (185     (185     (185

Intangibles

     (57     (63     (66     (27     (22     (26
  

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

 

Tangible adjusted shareholders’ equity

   $ 4,019      $ 4,036      $ 4,032      $ 3,979      $ 3,902      $ 3,837   
  

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

 

Common shares outstanding

     87.709        88.491        89.618        89.589        89.513        89.224   

Book value per share:

            

Excluding appropriated retained earnings (a)

   $ 55.65      $ 55.39      $ 55.27      $ 52.99      $ 50.83      $ 50.40   

Adjusted (b)

     48.76        48.59        47.95        46.79        45.90        45.36   

Tangible, adjusted (c)

     45.82        45.61        44.99        44.42        43.59        43.00   

Market capitalization

            

AFG’s closing common share price

   $ 60.72      $ 57.89      $ 59.56      $ 57.71      $ 57.72      $ 54.06   

Market capitalization

   $ 5,326      $ 5,123      $ 5,338      $ 5,170      $ 5,167      $ 4,823   

Price / Adjusted book value ratio

     1.25        1.19        1.24        1.23        1.26        1.19   

 

(a) Excludes appropriated retained earnings.
(b) Excludes appropriated retained earnings and unrealized gains related to fixed maturity investments.
(c) Excludes appropriated retained earnings, unrealized gains related to fixed maturity investments, goodwill and intangibles.

 

18


 

American Financial Group, Inc.

Capitalization

($ in millions)

   LOGO

 

     12/31/14     09/30/14     06/30/14     03/31/14     12/31/13     09/30/13  

AFG senior obligations

   $ 840      $ 840      $ 840      $ 840      $ 840      $ 840   

Borrowings drawn under credit facility

     —          —          —          —          —          —     

Obligations of subsidiaries - other

     12        12        12        12        12        12   
  

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

 

Debt excluding subordinated debt & debt secured by real estate

   $ 852      $ 852      $ 852      $ 852      $ 852      $ 852   

AFG subordinated debentures

     150        150        —          —          —          —     

Obligations of subsidiaries - secured by real estate

     59        60        60        61        61        61   

Payable to subsidiary trusts - subordinated

     —          —          —          —          —          —     
  

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

 

Total Long-term debt

   $ 1,061      $ 1,062      $ 912      $ 913      $ 913      $ 913   

Shareholders’ equity

     4,879        4,904        4,985        4,796        4,599        4,542   

Noncontrolling interests

     175        174        173        177        170        168   

Less:

            

Appropriated retained earnings

     2        (2     (31     (49     (49     (45

Unrealized gains related to fixed maturity investments

     (604     (602     (656     (556     (441     (449
  

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

 

Total adjusted capital

   $ 5,513      $ 5,536      $ 5,383      $ 5,281      $ 5,192      $ 5,129   
  

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

 

Less:

            

Obligations of subsidiaries - secured by real estate

     (59     (60     (60     (61     (61     (61
  

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

 

Total adjusted capital excluding obligations secured by real estate

   $ 5,454      $ 5,476      $ 5,323      $ 5,220      $ 5,131      $ 5,068   
  

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

 

Ratio of debt to total adjusted capital:

            

Including subordinated debt & debt secured by real estate

     19.2     19.2     16.9     17.3     17.6     17.8

Excluding subordinated debt & debt secured by real estate

     15.6     15.6     16.0     16.3     16.6     16.8

 

19


 

American Financial Group, Inc.

Additional Supplemental Information

($ in millions)

   LOGO

 

     Three Months Ended      Twelve Months Ended  
     12/31/14      09/30/14      06/30/14      03/31/14      12/31/13      12/31/14      12/31/13  

Property and Casualty Insurance

                    

Paid Losses (GAAP)

   $ 562       $ 528       $ 530       $ 510       $ 577       $ 2,130       $ 1,871   
     12/31/14      09/30/14      06/30/14      03/31/14      12/31/13      9/30/2013         

Statutory Surplus

                    

Property and Casualty Insurance

   $ 2,286       $ 2,206       $ 2,227       $ 1,981       $ 1,896       $ 2,133      

AFG’s principal annuity subsidiaries (total adjusted capital)

   $ 1,822       $ 1,818       $ 1,751       $ 1,688       $ 1,661       $ 1,590      

Allowable dividends without regulatory approval

                    

Property and Casualty Insurance

   $ 315       $ 335       $ 335       $ 335       $ 335       $ 237      

Annuity and Run-off

     359         275         275         275         275         158      
  

 

 

    

 

 

    

 

 

    

 

 

    

 

 

    

 

 

    

Total

   $ 674       $ 610       $ 610       $ 610       $ 610       $ 395      
  

 

 

    

 

 

    

 

 

    

 

 

    

 

 

    

 

 

    

 

20


 

American Financial Group, Inc.

Total Cash and Investments and Quarterly Net Investment Income

December 31, 2014

($ in millions)

   LOGO

 

 

     Carrying Value  
     Property and                                 % of  
     Casualty      Annuity and             Consolidate     Total AFG      Investment  
     Insurance      Run-off      Other      CLOs     Consolidated      Portfolio  

Total cash and investments:

                

Cash and cash equivalents

   $ 693       $ 320       $ 330       $ —        $ 1,343         4

Fixed maturities - Available for sale

     6,409         24,313         12         —          30,734         85

Fixed maturities - Trading

     138         128         —           —          266         1

Equity securities

     1,190         460         46         —          1,696         4

Policy loans

     —           228         —           —          228         1

Mortgage loans

     229         888         —           —          1,117         3

Real estate and other investments

     358         747         10         (289     826         2
  

 

 

    

 

 

    

 

 

    

 

 

   

 

 

    

 

 

 

Total cash and investments

   $ 9,017       $ 27,084       $ 398       $ (289   $ 36,210         100
  

 

 

    

 

 

    

 

 

    

 

 

   

 

 

    

 

 

 

 

     Property and                            
     Casualty     Annuity and            Consolidate      Total AFG  
     Insurance     Run-off     Other      CLOs      Consolidated  

Total quarterly net investment income:

            

Fixed maturities - Available for sale

   $ 58      $ 283      $ —         $ —         $ 341   

Fixed maturities - Trading

     2        1        —           —           3   

Equity securities

     11        5        3         —           19   

Equity in investees

     1        2        —           —           3   

Other investments

     5        15        —           1         21   
  

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

    

 

 

    

 

 

 

Gross investment income

     77        306        3         1         387   

Investment expenses

     (2     (1     —           —           (3
  

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

    

 

 

    

 

 

 

Total net investment income

   $ 75      $ 305      $ 3       $ 1       $ 384   
  

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

    

 

 

    

 

 

 

 

     Equity Securities  
                   Unrealized  
     Cost      Fair Value      Gain (Loss)  

Annuity and Run-off

   $ 411       $ 460       $ 49   

Property and Casualty Insurance

     1,021         1,190         169   

Other

     46         46         —     
  

 

 

    

 

 

    

 

 

 

Total AFG consolidated

   $ 1,478       $ 1,696       $ 218   
  

 

 

    

 

 

    

 

 

 

 

21


 

American Financial Group, Inc.

Fixed Maturities - By Security Type - AFG Consolidated

December 31, 2014

($ in millions )

   LOGO

 

                               % of  
     Amortized            Unrealized      % of     Investment  
     Cost     Fair Value      Gain (Loss)      Fair Value     Portfolio  

US Government and government agencies

   $ 361      $ 367       $ 6         1     1

States, municipalities and political subdivisions

     6,423        6,777         354         22     19

Foreign government

     267        277         10         1     1

Residential mortgage-backed securities

     4,053        4,449         396         14     12

Commercial mortgage-backed securities

     2,300        2,457         157         8     7

Asset-backed securities

     3,874        3,889         15         13     11

Corporate bonds

            

Manufacturing

     2,281        2,415         134         8     7

Banks, lending and credit institutions

     2,607        2,743         136         9     7

Gas and electric services

     1,284        1,403         119         4     4

Insurance and insurance related

     910        975         65         3     3

Other corporate

     4,980        5,248         268         17     14
  

 

 

   

 

 

    

 

 

    

 

 

   

 

 

 

Total AFG consolidated

   $ 29,340      $ 31,000       $ 1,660         100     86
  

 

 

   

 

 

    

 

 

    

 

 

   

 

 

 

Annuity and Run-off

   $ 22,998      $ 24,441         1,443         79     68

Property and Casualty Insurance

     6,341        6,547         206         21     18

Other

     1        12         11         0     0
  

 

 

   

 

 

    

 

 

    

 

 

   

 

 

 

Total AFG consolidated

   $ 29,340      $ 31,000       $ 1,660         100     86
  

 

 

   

 

 

    

 

 

    

 

 

   

 

 

 

Annualized yield on available for sale fixed maturities:

            

Excluding investment expense (a)

     4.75          

Net of investment expense (a)

     4.71          

Approximate average life and duration:

            

Approximate average life

     6.5 years             

Approximate duration

     5 years             

 

(a) Annualized yield is calculated by dividing investment income for the quarter by the average cost over the quarter.

Average cost is the average of the beginning and ending quarter asset balances.

 

22


 

American Financial Group, Inc.

Fixed Maturities - By Security Type Portfolio

December 31, 2014

($ in millions )

   LOGO

 

     Amortized            Unrealized     % of  
     Cost     Fair Value      Gain (Loss)     Fair Value  

Annuity and Run-off:

         

US Government and government agencies

   $ 85      $ 87       $ 2        0

States, municipalities and political subdivisions

     3,799        4,051         252        17

Foreign government

     17        20         3        0

Residential mortgage-backed securities

     3,079        3,405         326        14

Commercial mortgage-backed securities

     2,057        2,205         148        9

Asset-backed securities

     2,815        2,832         17        12

Corporate debt

     11,146        11,841         695        48
  

 

 

   

 

 

    

 

 

   

 

 

 

Total Annuity and Run-off

   $ 22,998      $ 24,441       $ 1,443        100
  

 

 

   

 

 

    

 

 

   

 

 

 

Annualized yield on available for sale fixed maturities:

         

Excluding investment expense (a)

     5.00       

Net of investment expense (a)

     4.98       

Approximate average life and duration:

         

Approximate average life

     7 years          

Approximate duration

     5 years          
     Amortized            Unrealized     % of  
     Cost     Fair Value      Gain (Loss)     Fair Value  

Property and Casualty Insurance:

         

US Government and government agencies

   $ 276      $ 280       $ 4        4

States, municipalities and political subdivisions

     2,624        2,726         102        42

Foreign government

     250        257         7        4

Residential mortgage-backed securities

     973        1,032         59        16

Commercial mortgage-backed securities

     243        252         9        4

Asset-backed securities

     1,059        1,057         (2     16

Corporate debt

     916        943         27        14
  

 

 

   

 

 

    

 

 

   

 

 

 

Property and Casualty Insurance

   $ 6,341      $ 6,547       $ 206        100
  

 

 

   

 

 

    

 

 

   

 

 

 

Annualized yield on available for sale fixed maturities:

         

Excluding investment expense (a)

     3.81       

Net of investment expense (a)

     3.71       

Tax equivalent, net of investment expense (b)

     4.33       

Approximate average life and duration:

         

Approximate average life

     4.5 years          

Approximate duration

     3.5 years          

 

(a) Annualized yield is calculated by dividing investment income for the quarter by the average cost over the quarter. Average cost is the average of the beginning and ending quarter asset balances.
(b) Adjusts the yield on tax-exempt bonds to the fully taxable equivalent yield.

 

23


 

American Financial Group, Inc.

Fixed Maturities - Credit Rating and NAIC Designation

December 31, 2014

($ in millions)

LOGO

 

     GAAP Data  
     Amortized             Unrealized      % of  

By Credit Rating

   Cost      Fair Value      Gain (Loss)      Fair Value  

Investment grade

           

AAA

   $ 6,680       $ 6,936       $ 256         22

AA

     6,053         6,342         289         21

A

     7,526         7,966         440         26

BBB

     5,289         5,603         314         18
  

 

 

    

 

 

    

 

 

    

 

 

 

Subtotal - Investment grade

  25,548      26,847      1,299      87

BB

  807      834      27      3

B

  428      440      12      1

Other

  2,557      2,879      322      9
  

 

 

    

 

 

    

 

 

    

 

 

 

Total

$ 29,340    $ 31,000    $ 1,660      100
  

 

 

    

 

 

    

 

 

    

 

 

 

If two agencies rate a security, the rating displayed above is the lower of the two; if three or more agencies rate a security, the rating displayed is the second lowest.

 

     Statutory Data  
By NAIC    Carrying      % of Carrying     Amortized             Unrealized  

Designation

   Value      Value     Cost      Fair Value      Gain (Loss)  

NAIC 1

   $ 22,829         78   $ 22,830       $ 24,166       $ 1,336   

NAIC 2

     5,389         19     5,389         5,695         306   
  

 

 

    

 

 

   

 

 

    

 

 

    

 

 

 
  28,218      97   28,219      29,861      1,642   

NAIC 3

  638      2   638      657      19   

NAIC 4

  142      1   144      146      2   

NAIC 5

  46      0   46      58      12   

NAIC 6

  37      0   40      59      19   
  

 

 

    

 

 

   

 

 

    

 

 

    

 

 

 

Total

$ 29,081      100 $ 29,087    $ 30,781    $ 1,694   
  

 

 

    

 

 

   

 

 

    

 

 

    

 

 

 

 

24


 

American Financial Group, Inc.

LOGO
Mortgage-Backed Securities - AFG Consolidated
December 31, 2014

($ in millions)

 

                                % of  
     Amortized             Unrealized      % of     Investment  

By Asset Type

   Cost      Fair Value      Gain (Loss)      Fair Value     Portfolio  

Residential

             

Agency

   $ 315       $ 327       $ 12         5     1

Prime (Non-Agency)

     1,923         2,135         212         31     6

Alt-A

     948         1,054         106         15     3

Subprime

     867         933         66         13     2
  

 

 

    

 

 

    

 

 

    

 

 

   

 

 

 

Subtotal - Residential

  4,053      4,449      396      64   12

Commercial

  2,300      2,457      157      36   7
  

 

 

    

 

 

    

 

 

    

 

 

   

 

 

 

Total AFG consolidated

$ 6,353    $ 6,906    $ 553      100   19
  

 

 

    

 

 

    

 

 

    

 

 

   

 

 

 

Annuity and Run-off

$ 5,136    $ 5,610    $ 474      81   15

Property and Casualty Insurance

  1,216      1,284      68      19   4

Other

  1      12      11      0   0
  

 

 

    

 

 

    

 

 

    

 

 

   

 

 

 

Total AFG consolidated

$ 6,353    $ 6,906    $ 553      100   19
  

 

 

    

 

 

    

 

 

    

 

 

   

 

 

 

 

  Substantially all of AFG’s MBS securities are either senior tranches of securitizations or collateralized by senior tranches of securitizations.

 

  The average amortized cost as a percent of par is - Prime 83%; Alt-A 78%; Subprime 86%; CMBS 99%.

 

  The average FICO score of our residential MBS securities is - Prime 741; Alt-A 712; Subprime 639.

 

  99.7% of our Commercial MBS portfolio is investment-grade rated (85% AAA) and the average subordination for this group assets is 38%.

 

  The approximate average life by collateral type is - Residential 5 years; Commercial 4 years.

 

 

25


 

American Financial Group, Inc.

Mortgage-Backed Securities Portfolio

December 31, 2014

($ in millions)

LOGO

 

Annuity and Run-off:

By Asset Type

   Amortized
Cost
     Fair Value      Unrealized
Gain (Loss)
     % of
Fair Value
    %of
Investment
Portfolio
 

Residential

             

Agency

   $ 130       $ 138       $ 8         3     1

Prime (Non-Agency)

     1,684         1,868         184         33     7

Alt-A

     698         782         84         14     3

Subprime

     567         617         50         11     2
  

 

 

    

 

 

    

 

 

    

 

 

   

 

 

 

Subtotal - Residential

  3,079      3,405      326      61   13

Commercial

  2,057      2,205      148      39   8
  

 

 

    

 

 

    

 

 

    

 

 

   

 

 

 

Total Annuity and Run-off

$ 5,136    $ 5,610    $ 474      100   21
  

 

 

    

 

 

    

 

 

    

 

 

   

 

 

 

Property and Casualty Insurance:

By Asset Type

   Amortized
Cost
     Fair Value      Unrealized
Gain (Loss)
     % of
Fair Value
    % of
Investment
Portfolio
 

Residential

             

Agency

   $ 185       $ 189       $ 4         15     2

Prime (Non-Agency)

     238         255         17         20     3

Alt-A

     250         272         22         21     3

Subprime

     300         316         16         24     3
  

 

 

    

 

 

    

 

 

    

 

 

   

 

 

 

Subtotal - Residential

  973      1,032      59      80   11

Commercial

  243      252      9      20   3
  

 

 

    

 

 

    

 

 

    

 

 

   

 

 

 

Total Property and Casualty Insurance

$ 1,216    $ 1,284    $ 68      100   14
  

 

 

    

 

 

    

 

 

    

 

 

   

 

 

 

 

26


 

American Financial Group, Inc.

Mortgage-Backed Securities - Credit Rating and NAIC Designation

December 31, 2014

($ in millions)

  LOGO     

 

     GAAP data  

By Credit Rating

   Amortized
Cost
     Fair
Value
     Unrealized
Gain (Loss)
     % of
Fair Value
 

Investment grade

           

AAA

   $ 2,764       $ 2,932       $ 168         43

AA

     346         362         16         5

A

     484         512         28         7

BBB

     216         235         19         3
  

 

 

    

 

 

    

 

 

    

 

 

 

Subtotal - investment grade

  3,810      4,041      231      58

BB

  334      347      13      5

B

  368      380      12      6

Other

  1,841      2,138      297      31
  

 

 

    

 

 

    

 

 

    

 

 

 

Total

$ 6,353    $ 6,906    $ 553      100
  

 

 

    

 

 

    

 

 

    

 

 

 

If two agencies rate a security, the rating displayed above is the lower of the two; if three or more agencies rate a security, the rating displayed is the second lowest.

 

     Statutory data  

By NAIC

Designation

   Carrying
Value
     % of Carrying
Value
    Amortized
Cost
     Fair
Value
     Unrealized
Gain (Loss)
 

NAIC 1

   $ 6,056         97   $ 6,057       $ 6,634       $ 577   

NAIC 2

     88         1     88         90         2   
  

 

 

    

 

 

   

 

 

    

 

 

    

 

 

 
  6,144      98   6,145      6,724      579   

NAIC 3

  51      1   51      52      1   

NAIC 4

  55      1   55      59      4   

NAIC 5

  16      0   16      27      11   

NAIC 6

  2      0   2      18      16   
  

 

 

    

 

 

   

 

 

    

 

 

    

 

 

 

Total

$ 6,268      100 $ 6,269    $ 6,880    $ 611   
  

 

 

    

 

 

   

 

 

    

 

 

    

 

 

 

 

27


 

Appendix:

American Financial Group, Inc.

Attribution of Changes in Long-Term Care Net Loss Recognition Margin

($ in millions)

  LOGO

 

Net Loss Recognition Margin at 12/31/13

   $ 64   

Changes in margin attributed to each updated assumption:

  

Claim costs

   $ (50

Rate increases

     40   

Reinvestment rates

     (34

Expenses

     (11

Other

     2   
  

 

 

 

Net Loss Recognition Margin at 12/31/14

$ 11   
  

 

 

 

The following table illustrates the impact of changes in key assumptions on AFG’s net loss recognition margin as of December 31, 2014. Assumption changes could have either a favorable or unfavorable impact on the margin depending on the nature of the change.

 

Assumptions Change

   Impact on Net
Loss Recognition
Margin (pretax)

5% morbidity change in all future years

   $55 - $65

5% lapse and mortality rate change in all future years

   $35 - $40

0.25% reinvestment rate change in all future years

   $20 - $25

0.25% initial reinvestment rate change; no change to ultimate reinvestment rate

   $8 - $10

1% change in expected rate increase approvals

   $15 - $20

Once the loss recognition margin is reduced to zero, the impact of adverse changes in assumptions, unless offset by other favorable assumption changes, would be recorded as an increase in long-term care reserves through a charge to earnings. Each item reflects a change to a single assumption without changes to other assumptions. For example, assuming increased claim payments did not change the assumption on future rate increases and persistency, nor did it change projected investment yields resulting from cash flow differences. These amounts are valid for a point in time, and will change in future periods as the in-force block ages, and as actual performance deviates from the assumptions used at December 31, 2014.

 

28


 

Appendix:

American Financial Group, Inc.

Reinvestment Rates Used in Loss Recognition Testing and Annuity Unlocking

($ in millions)

  LOGO

 

     Initial Net
Reinvestment
Rate
    Ultimate Net
Reinvestment
Rate
    Years to
Reach
Ultimate
 

Segments

      

Run-off Long-Term Care

     4.52     6.25     7 years   

Annuity

     3.57     5.54     7 years   

Differences in reinvestment rates between segments reflect differences in expected durations of liabilities, as well as different assumed investment allocations.

 

29

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