Fair Value Measurements

3 Months Ended

Mar. 31, 2024

Accounting standards for measuring fair value are based on inputs used in estimating fair value. The three levels of the hierarchy are as follows:

Level 1 — Quoted prices for identical assets or liabilities in active markets (markets in which transactions occur with sufficient frequency and volume to provide pricing information on an ongoing basis). AFG’s Level 1 financial instruments consist primarily of publicly traded equity securities, highly liquid government bonds for which quoted market prices in active markets are available and short-term investments of managed investment entities.

Level 2 — Quoted prices for similar instruments in active markets; quoted prices for identical or similar assets or liabilities in inactive markets (markets in which there are few transactions, the prices are not current, price quotations vary substantially over time or among market makers, or in which little information is released publicly); and valuations based on other significant inputs that are observable in active markets. AFG’s Level 2 financial instruments include corporate and municipal fixed maturity securities, asset-backed securities (“ABS”), mortgage-backed securities (“MBS”), certain non-affiliated common stocks and investments of managed investment entities priced using observable inputs. Level 2 inputs include benchmark yields, reported trades, corroborated broker/dealer quotes, issuer spreads and benchmark securities. When non-binding broker quotes can be corroborated by comparison to similar securities priced using observable inputs, they are classified as Level 2.

Level 3 — Valuations derived from market valuation techniques generally consistent with those used to estimate the fair values of Level 2 financial instruments in which one or more significant inputs are unobservable or when the market for a security exhibits significantly less liquidity relative to markets supporting Level 2 fair value measurements. The unobservable inputs may include management’s own assumptions about the assumptions market participants would use based on the best information available at the valuation date. Financial instruments whose fair value is estimated based on non-binding broker quotes or internally developed using significant inputs not based on, or corroborated by, observable market information are classified as Level 3.

As discussed in Note A — “Accounting Policies — Managed Investment Entities,” AFG has set the carrying value of its CLO liabilities equal to the fair value of the CLO assets (which have more observable fair values) as an alternative to reporting those liabilities at separately measured fair values. As a result, the CLO liabilities are categorized within the fair value hierarchy on the same basis (proportionally) as the related CLO assets. Since the portion of the CLO liabilities allocated to Level 3 is derived from the fair value of the CLO assets, these amounts are excluded from the progression of Level 3 financial instruments.

AFG’s management is responsible for the valuation process and uses data from outside sources (including nationally recognized pricing services and broker/dealers) in establishing fair value. AFG’s internal investment professionals are a group of approximately 20 investment professionals whose primary responsibility is to manage AFG’s investment portfolio. These professionals monitor individual investments as well as overall industries and are active in the financial markets on a daily basis. The group is led by AFG’s chief investment officer, who reports directly to one of AFG’s Co-CEOs. Valuation techniques utilized by pricing services and prices obtained from external sources are reviewed by AFG’s internal investment professionals who are familiar with the securities being priced and the markets in which they trade to ensure the fair value determination is representative of an exit price. To validate the appropriateness of the prices obtained, these investment managers consider widely published indices (as benchmarks), recent trades, changes in interest rates, general economic conditions and the credit quality of the specific issuers. In addition, AFG communicates directly with the pricing services regarding the methods and assumptions used in pricing, including verifying, on a test basis, the inputs used by the service to value specific securities.

Assets and liabilities measured and carried at fair value in the financial statements are summarized below (in millions):


	Level 1		Level 2		Level 3		Total
March 31, 2024
Assets:
Available for sale (“AFS”) fixed maturities:
U.S. government and government agencies	$	198	$	1	$	—	$	199
States, municipalities and political subdivisions	—		908		2		910
Foreign government	—		235		—		235
Residential MBS	—		1,672		2		1,674
Commercial MBS	—		72		—		72
Collateralized loan obligations	—		1,592		1		1,593
Other asset-backed securities	—		2,039		335		2,374
Corporate and other	11		2,901		402		3,314
Total AFS fixed maturities	209		9,420		742		10,371
Trading fixed maturities	—		57		—		57
Equity securities	461		34		545		1,040
Assets of managed investment entities (“MIE”)	430		4,229		10		4,669
Other assets — derivatives	—		3		—		3
Total assets accounted for at fair value	$	1,100	$	13,743	$	1,297	$	16,140
Liabilities:
Contingent consideration — acquisitions	$	—	$	—	$	2	$	2
Liabilities of managed investment entities	411		4,047		10		4,468
Other liabilities — derivatives	—		28		—		28
Total liabilities accounted for at fair value	$	411	$	4,075	$	12	$	4,498

December 31, 2023
Assets:
Available for sale fixed maturities:
U.S. government and government agencies	$	235	$	1	$	—	$	236
States, municipalities and political subdivisions	—		982		2		984
Foreign government	—		230		—		230
Residential MBS	—		1,656		2		1,658
Commercial MBS	—		74		—		74
Collateralized loan obligations	—		1,686		1		1,687
Other asset-backed securities	—		2,011		351		2,362
Corporate and other	9		2,757		380		3,146
Total AFS fixed maturities	244		9,397		736		10,377
Trading fixed maturities	—		57		—		57
Equity securities	500		33		485		1,018
Assets of managed investment entities	335		4,140		9		4,484
Other assets — derivatives	—		6		—		6
Total assets accounted for at fair value	$	1,079	$	13,633	$	1,230	$	15,942
Liabilities:
Contingent consideration — acquisitions	$	—	$	—	$	2	$	2
Liabilities of managed investment entities	322		3,976		9		4,307
Other liabilities — derivatives	—		22		—		22
Total liabilities accounted for at fair value	$	322	$	3,998	$	11	$	4,331

Approximately 8% of the total assets carried at fair value at March 31, 2024, were Level 3 assets. Approximately 8% ($109 million) of those Level 3 assets were priced using non-binding broker quotes, for which there is a lack of transparency as to the inputs used to determine fair value. Details as to the quantitative inputs are neither provided by the brokers nor otherwise reasonably obtainable by AFG. Approximately 1% ($10 million) of the Level 3 assets were priced by pricing services where either a single price was not corroborated, prices varied enough among the providers, or other market factors led management to determine these securities be classified as Level 3 assets. Approximately 31%

($397 million) of the Level 3 assets were equity investments in limited partnerships and similar investments that do not qualify for equity method accounting whose prices were determined based on financial information provided by the limited partnerships.

Internally developed prices for fixed maturities are estimated using a variety of inputs, including appropriate credit spreads over the treasury yield (of a similar duration), trade information and prices of comparable securities and other security specific features (such as optional early redemption). Internally developed Level 3 asset fair values represent approximately 60% ($781 million) of the total fair value of Level 3 assets at March 31, 2024. Approximately 73% ($566 million) of these internally developed Level 3 assets are priced using a pricing model that uses a discounted cash flow approach to estimate the fair value of fixed maturity securities. The credit spread applied by management is the significant unobservable input of the pricing model. In instances where the security is currently callable at par value and the pricing model suggests a higher price, management caps the fair value at par value. Approximately 18% ($144 million) of the internally developed Level 3 assets are equity securities which are priced primarily using internal models with some inputs that are not market observable. Management believes that any justifiable changes in unobservable inputs used to determine internally developed fair values would not have resulted in a material change in AFG’s financial position.

Changes in balances of Level 3 financial assets and liabilities carried at fair value during the first three months of 2024 and 2023 are presented below (in millions). The transfers into and out of Level 3 were due to changes in the availability of market observable inputs. All transfers are reflected in the table at fair value as of the end of the reporting period.


			Total realized/unrealized gains (losses) included in
	Balance at December 31, 2023		Net earnings (loss)		Other comprehensive income (loss)		Purchases and issuances		Sales and settlements		Transfer into Level 3		Transfer out of Level 3		Balance at March 31, 2024
AFS fixed maturities:
U.S. government agency	$	—	$	—	$	—	$	—	$	—	$	—	$	—	$	—
State and municipal	2		—		—		—		—		—		—		2
Residential MBS	2		—		—		—		—		—		—		2
Commercial MBS	—		—		—		—		—		—		—		—
Collateralized loan obligations	1		—		—		—		—		—		—		1
Other asset-backed securities	351		—		—		15		(5)		—		(26)		335
Corporate and other	380		(1)		—		33		(6)		—		(4)		402
Total AFS fixed maturities	736		(1)		—		48		(11)		—		(30)		742
Equity securities	485		20		—		42		(2)		—		—		545
Assets of MIE	9		(1)		—		2		—		—		—		10
Total Level 3 assets	$	1,230	$	18	$	—	$	92	$	(13)	$	—	$	(30)	$	1,297

Contingent consideration — acquisitions	$	(2)	$	—	$	—	$	—	$	—	$	—	$	—	$	(2)
Total Level 3 liabilities	$	(2)	$	—	$	—	$	—	$	—	$	—	$	—	$	(2)


			Total realized/unrealized gains (losses) included in
	Balance at December 31, 2022		Net earnings (loss)		Other comprehensive income (loss)		Purchases and issuances		Sales and settlements		Transfer into Level 3		Transfer out of Level 3		Balance at March 31, 2023
AFS fixed maturities:
U.S. government agency	$	—	$	—	$	—	$	—	$	—	$	—	$	—	$	—
State and municipal	5		—		—		—		—		—		—		5
Residential MBS	9		—		—		—		(3)		4		(5)		5
Commercial MBS	—		—		—		—		—		—		—		—
Collateralized loan obligations	2		—		—		—		—		—		(1)		1
Other asset-backed securities	329		—		4		7		(5)		—		—		335
Corporate and other	319		5		2		44		(11)		—		—		359
Total AFS fixed maturities	664		5		6		51		(19)		4		(6)		705
Equity securities	427		(3)		—		31		(22)		—		(22)		411
Assets of MIE	11		(1)		—		2		—		—		—		12
Total Level 3 assets	$	1,102	$	1	$	6	$	84	$	(41)	$	4	$	(28)	$	1,128

Contingent consideration — acquisitions	$	(25)	$	—	$	—	$	—	$	—	$	—	$	—	$	(25)
Total Level 3 liabilities	$	(25)	$	—	$	—	$	—	$	—	$	—	$	—	$	(25)

Fair Value of Financial Instruments The carrying value and fair value of financial instruments that are not carried at fair value in the financial statements are summarized below (in millions):


	Carrying Value		Fair Value
			Total		Level 1		Level 2		Level 3
March 31, 2024
Financial assets:
Cash and cash equivalents	$	1,087	$	1,087	$	1,087	$	—	$	—
Mortgage loans	722		671		—		—		671
Total financial assets not accounted for at fair value	$	1,809	$	1,758	$	1,087	$	—	$	671

Long-term debt	$	1,475	$	1,358	$	—	$	1,355	$	3
Total financial liabilities not accounted for at fair value	$	1,475	$	1,358	$	—	$	1,355	$	3

December 31, 2023
Financial assets:
Cash and cash equivalents	$	1,225	$	1,225	$	1,225	$	—	$	—
Mortgage loans	643		596		—		—		596
Total financial assets not accounted for at fair value	$	1,868	$	1,821	$	1,225	$	—	$	596

Long-term debt	$	1,475	$	1,345	$	—	$	1,342	$	3
Total financial liabilities not accounted for at fair value	$	1,475	$	1,345	$	—	$	1,342	$	3

- Definition

The entire disclosure for the fair value of financial instruments (as defined), including financial assets and financial liabilities (collectively, as defined), and the measurements of those instruments as well as disclosures related to the fair value of non-financial assets and liabilities. Such disclosures about the financial instruments, assets, and liabilities would include: (1) the fair value of the required items together with their carrying amounts (as appropriate); (2) for items for which it is not practicable to estimate fair value, disclosure would include: (a) information pertinent to estimating fair value (including, carrying amount, effective interest rate, and maturity, and (b) the reasons why it is not practicable to estimate fair value; (3) significant concentrations of credit risk including: (a) information about the activity, region, or economic characteristics identifying a concentration, (b) the maximum amount of loss the entity is exposed to based on the gross fair value of the related item, (c) policy for requiring collateral or other security and information as to accessing such collateral or security, and (d) the nature and brief description of such collateral or security; (4) quantitative information about market risks and how such risks are managed; (5) for items measured on both a recurring and nonrecurring basis information regarding the inputs used to develop the fair value measurement; and (6) for items presented in the financial statement for which fair value measurement is elected: (a) information necessary to understand the reasons for the election, (b) discussion of the effect of fair value changes on earnings, (c) a description of [similar groups] items for which the election is made and the relation thereof to the balance sheet, the aggregate carrying value of items included in the balance sheet that are not eligible for the election; (7) all other required (as defined) and desired information.

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