Fair Value Measurements

9 Months Ended

Sep. 30, 2022

Fair Value Disclosures [Abstract]

Fair Value Measurements

Fair Value Measurements

Accounting standards for measuring fair value are based on inputs used in estimating fair value. The three levels of the hierarchy are as follows:

Level 1 — Quoted prices for identical assets or liabilities in active markets (markets in which transactions occur with sufficient frequency and volume to provide pricing information on an ongoing basis). AFG’s Level 1 financial instruments consist primarily of publicly traded equity securities, highly liquid government bonds for which quoted market prices in active markets are available and short-term investments of managed investment entities.

Level 2 — Quoted prices for similar instruments in active markets; quoted prices for identical or similar assets or liabilities in inactive markets (markets in which there are few transactions, the prices are not current, price quotations vary substantially over time or among market makers, or in which little information is released publicly); and valuations based on other significant inputs that are observable in active markets. AFG’s Level 2 financial instruments include corporate and municipal fixed maturity securities, asset-backed securities (“ABS”), mortgage-backed securities (“MBS”), certain non-affiliated common stocks and investments of managed investment entities priced using observable inputs. Level 2 inputs include benchmark yields, reported trades, corroborated broker/dealer quotes, issuer spreads and benchmark securities. When non-binding broker quotes can be corroborated by comparison to similar securities priced using observable inputs, they are classified as Level 2.

Level 3 — Valuations derived from market valuation techniques generally consistent with those used to estimate the fair values of Level 2 financial instruments in which one or more significant inputs are unobservable or when the market for a security exhibits significantly less liquidity relative to markets supporting Level 2 fair value measurements. The unobservable inputs may include management’s own assumptions about the assumptions market participants would use based on the best information available at the valuation date. Financial instruments whose fair value is estimated based on non-binding broker quotes or internally developed using significant inputs not based on, or corroborated by, observable market information are classified as Level 3.

The contingent consideration liability (included in other liabilities in AFG’s Balance Sheet) relates to AFG’s acquisitions of Verikai in December 2021, and to a lesser extent, a small insurance agency in September 2022, which are discussed in Note C — “Acquisition and Sale of Businesses.” These liabilities are remeasured at fair value at each balance sheet date with changes in fair value recognized in net earnings. To estimate the fair value of the contingent consideration liability related to the Verikai acquisition ($23 million at September 30, 2022), AFG uses a weighted probability-based income approach which includes significant unobservable inputs and is classified as Level 3. There was no change to the estimated fair value of this liability during the third quarter or first nine months of 2022.

As discussed in Note A — “Accounting Policies — Managed Investment Entities,” AFG has set the carrying value of its CLO liabilities equal to the fair value of the CLO assets (which have more observable fair values) as an alternative to reporting those liabilities at separately measured fair values. As a result, the CLO liabilities are categorized within the fair value hierarchy on the same basis (proportionally) as the related CLO assets. Since the portion of the CLO liabilities allocated to Level 3 is derived from the fair value of the CLO assets, these amounts are excluded from the progression of Level 3 financial instruments.

AFG’s management is responsible for the valuation process and uses data from outside sources (including nationally recognized pricing services and broker/dealers) in establishing fair value. AFG’s internal investment professionals are a group of approximately 20 investment professionals whose primary responsibility is to manage AFG’s investment portfolio. These professionals monitor individual investments as well as overall industries and are active in the financial markets on a daily basis. The group is led by AFG’s chief investment officer, who reports directly to one of AFG’s Co-CEOs. Valuation techniques utilized by pricing services and prices obtained from external sources are reviewed by AFG’s internal investment professionals who are familiar with the securities being priced and the markets in which they trade to ensure the fair value determination is representative of an exit price. To validate the appropriateness of the prices obtained, these investment managers consider widely published indices (as benchmarks), recent trades, changes in interest rates, general economic conditions and the credit quality of the specific issuers. In addition, the Company communicates directly with the pricing services regarding the methods and assumptions used in pricing, including verifying, on a test basis, the inputs used by the service to value specific securities.

Assets and liabilities measured and carried at fair value in the financial statements are summarized below (in millions):

	Level 1		Level 2		Level 3		Total
September 30, 2022
Assets:
Available for sale (“AFS”) fixed maturities:
U.S. government and government agencies	$	214	$	—	$	—	$	214
States, municipalities and political subdivisions	—		1,257		1		1,258
Foreign government	—		223		—		223
Residential MBS	—		1,596		8		1,604
Commercial MBS	—		85		—		85
Collateralized loan obligations	—		1,804		2		1,806
Other asset-backed securities	—		1,970		301		2,271
Corporate and other	10		2,268		295		2,573
Total AFS fixed maturities	224		9,203		607		10,034
Trading fixed maturities	—		30		—		30
Equity securities	570		42		384		996
Assets of managed investment entities (“MIE”)	296		4,792		11		5,099
Total assets accounted for at fair value	$	1,090	$	14,067	$	1,002	$	16,159
Liabilities:
Contingent consideration — acquisitions	$	—	$	—	$	25	$	25
Liabilities of managed investment entities	291		4,701		10		5,002
Other liabilities — derivatives	—		46		—		46
Total liabilities accounted for at fair value	$	291	$	4,747	$	35	$	5,073
December 31, 2021
Assets:
Available for sale fixed maturities:
U.S. government and government agencies	$	215	$	1	$	—	$	216
States, municipalities and political subdivisions	—		1,791		41		1,832
Foreign government	—		246		—		246
Residential MBS	—		946		14		960
Commercial MBS	—		104		—		104
Collateralized loan obligations	—		1,643		—		1,643
Other asset-backed securities	—		2,398		278		2,676
Corporate and other	11		2,402		267		2,680
Total AFS fixed maturities	226		9,531		600		10,357
Trading fixed maturities	—		28		—		28
Equity securities	679		50		313		1,042
Assets of managed investment entities	390		4,893		13		5,296
Total assets accounted for at fair value	$	1,295	$	14,502	$	926	$	16,723
Liabilities:
Contingent consideration — acquisitions	$	—	$	—	$	23	$	23
Liabilities of managed investment entities	384		4,823		13		5,220
Total liabilities accounted for at fair value	$	384	$	4,823	$	36	$	5,243

Approximately 6% of the total assets carried at fair value at September 30, 2022, were Level 3 assets. Approximately 16% ($158 million) of those Level 3 assets were priced using non-binding broker quotes, for which there is a lack of transparency as to the inputs used to determine fair value. Details as to the quantitative inputs are neither provided by the brokers nor otherwise reasonably obtainable by AFG. Approximately $23 million (2%) of the Level 3 assets were priced by pricing services where either a single price was not corroborated, prices varied enough among the providers, or other market factors led management to determine these securities be classified as Level 3 assets. Approximately 23% ($231 million) of the Level 3 assets were equity investments in limited partnerships and similar investments that do not qualify for equity method accounting whose prices were determined based on financial information provided by the limited partnerships.

Internally developed fixed maturities are priced using a variety of inputs, including appropriate credit spreads over the treasury yield (of a similar duration), trade information and prices of comparable securities and other security specific features (such as optional early redemption). Internally developed Level 3 asset fair values represent approximately $590 million (59%) of the total fair value of Level 3 assets at September 30, 2022. Approximately 67% ($397 million) of these internally developed Level 3 assets are priced using a pricing model that uses a discounted cash flow approach to estimate the fair value of fixed maturity securities. The credit spread applied by management is the significant unobservable input of the pricing model. In instances where the pricing model suggests a price in excess of par value and the security is currently callable at par value, management caps the fair value at par value. Approximately 25% ($145 million) of the internally developed Level 3 assets are equity securities which are priced primarily using broker quotes and internal models with some inputs that are not market observable. Management believes that any justifiable changes in unobservable inputs used to determine internally developed fair values would not have resulted in a material change in AFG’s financial position.

Changes in balances of Level 3 financial assets and liabilities carried at fair value during the third quarter and first nine months of 2022 and 2021 are presented below (in millions). The transfers into and out of Level 3 were due to changes in the availability of market observable inputs. All transfers are reflected in the table at fair value as of the end of the reporting period.

			Total realized/unrealized gains (losses) included in
	Balance at June 30, 2022		Net earnings (loss)		Other comprehensive income (loss)		Purchases and issuances		Sales and settlements		Transfer into Level 3		Transfer out of Level 3		Balance at September 30, 2022
AFS fixed maturities:
U.S. government agency	$	—	$	—	$	—	$	—	$	—	$	—	$	—	$	—
State and municipal	1		—		—		—		—		—		—		1
Residential MBS	8		—		—		—		—		4		(4)		8
Commercial MBS	—		—		—		—		—		—		—		—
Collateralized loan obligations	2		—		—		—		—		—		—		2
Other asset-backed securities	313		—		(8)		5		(9)		—		—		301
Corporate and other	269		(1)		(12)		45		(5)		—		(1)		295
Total AFS fixed maturities	593		(1)		(20)		50		(14)		4		(5)		607
Equity securities	378		(2)		—		24		(15)		—		(1)		384
Assets of MIE	12		(1)		—		—		—		—		—		11
Total Level 3 assets	$	983	$	(4)	$	(20)	$	74	$	(29)	$	4	$	(6)	$	1,002
Contingent consideration — acquisitions	$	(23)	$	—	$	—	$	(2)	$	—	$	—	$	—	$	(25)
Total Level 3 liabilities	$	(23)	$	—	$	—	$	(2)	$	—	$	—	$	—	$	(25)

			Total realized/unrealized gains (losses) included in
	Balance at June 30, 2021		Net earnings (loss)		Other comprehensive income (loss)		Purchases and issuances		Sales and settlements		Transfer into Level 3		Transfer out of Level 3		Balance at September 30, 2021
AFS fixed maturities:
U.S. government agency	$	—	$	—	$	—	$	—	$	—	$	—	$	—	$	—
State and municipal	36		—		—		—		—		8		(2)		42
Residential MBS	28		(1)		—		—		(1)		—		(8)		18
Commercial MBS	—		—		—		—		—		—		—		—
Collateralized loan obligations	6		—		1		—		—		—		(6)		1
Other asset-backed securities	315		1		(1)		41		(38)		—		(9)		309
Corporate and other	220		—		(1)		36		(9)		2		—		248
Total AFS fixed maturities	605		—		(1)		77		(48)		10		(25)		618
Equity securities	245		7		—		20		(4)		—		—		268
Assets of MIE	15		(2)		—		1		—		—		(2)		12
Total Level 3 assets	$	865	$	5	$	(1)	$	98	$	(52)	$	10	$	(27)	$	898

			Total realized/unrealized gains (losses) included in
	Balance at December 31, 2021		Net earnings (loss)		Other comprehensive income (loss)		Purchases and issuances		Sales and settlements		Transfer into Level 3		Transfer out of Level 3		Balance at September 30, 2022
AFS fixed maturities:
U.S. government agency	$	—	$	—	$	—	$	—	$	—	$	—	$	—	$	—
State and municipal	41		—		(3)		—		(1)		—		(36)		1
Residential MBS	14		—		—		—		(1)		4		(9)		8
Commercial MBS	—		—		—		—		—		—		—		—
Collateralized loan obligations	—		—		—		—		—		2		—		2
Other asset-backed securities	278		2		(24)		62		(51)		34		—		301
Corporate and other	267		(1)		(26)		105		(15)		—		(35)		295
Total AFS fixed maturities	600		1		(53)		167		(68)		40		(80)		607
Equity securities	313		20		—		75		(20)		3		(7)		384
Assets of MIE	13		(3)		—		1		—		—		—		11
Total Level 3 assets	$	926	$	18	$	(53)	$	243	$	(88)	$	43	$	(87)	$	1,002
Contingent consideration — acquisitions	$	(23)	$	—	$	—	$	(2)	$	—	$	—	$	—	$	(25)
Total Level 3 liabilities	$	(23)	$	—	$	—	$	(2)	$	—	$	—	$	—	$	(25)

			Total realized/unrealized gains (losses) included in
	Balance at December 31, 2020		Net earnings (loss)		OCI		Purchases and issuances		Sales and settlements		Transfer into Level 3		Transfer out of Level 3		Sale of Annuity Business		Balance at September 30, 2021
AFS fixed maturities:
U.S. government agency	$	—	$	—	$	—	$	—	$	—	$	—	$	—	$	—	$	—
State and municipal	39		—		—		—		(3)		8		(2)		—		42
Residential MBS	38		(4)		—		6		(2)		6		(26)		—		18
Commercial MBS	2		—		—		—		—		—		(2)		—		—
Collateralized loan obligations	16		1		—		—		(1)		—		(15)		—		1
Other asset-backed securities	305		1		—		131		(110)		14		(32)		—		309
Corporate and other	138		(1)		(2)		142		(29)		5		(5)		—		248
Total AFS fixed maturities	538		(3)		(2)		279		(145)		33		(82)		—		618
Equity securities	176		78		—		44		(23)		—		(7)		—		268
Assets of MIE	21		1		—		3		—		1		(14)		—		12
Assets of discontinued annuity operations	2,971		85		(21)		209		(328)		32		(229)		(2,719)		—
Total Level 3 assets	$	3,706	$	161	$	(23)	$	535	$	(496)	$	66	$	(332)	$	(2,719)	$	898
Liabilities of discontinued annuity operations	$	(3,933)	$	(222)	$	—	$	(146)	$	158	$	—	$	—	$	4,143	$	—
Total Level 3 liabilities	$	(3,933)	$	(222)	$	—	$	(146)	$	158	$	—	$	—	$	4,143	$	—

Fair Value of Financial Instruments   The carrying value and fair value of financial instruments that are not carried at fair value in the financial statements are summarized below (in millions):

	Carrying		Fair Value
	Value		Total		Level 1		Level 2		Level 3
September 30, 2022
Financial assets:
Cash and cash equivalents	$	794	$	794	$	794	$	—	$	—
Mortgage loans	676		623		—		—		623
Total financial assets not accounted for at fair value	$	1,470	$	1,417	$	794	$	—	$	623
Long-term debt	$	1,533	$	1,344	$	—	$	1,341	$	3
Total financial liabilities not accounted for at fair value	$	1,533	$	1,344	$	—	$	1,341	$	3
December 31, 2021
Financial assets:
Cash and cash equivalents	$	2,131	$	2,131	$	2,131	$	—	$	—
Mortgage loans	520		533		—		—		533
Total financial assets not accounted for at fair value	$	2,651	$	2,664	$	2,131	$	—	$	533
Long-term debt	$	1,964	$	2,261	$	—	$	2,258	$	3
Total financial liabilities not accounted for at fair value	$	1,964	$	2,261	$	—	$	2,258	$	3