Fair Value Measurements

9 Months Ended

Sep. 30, 2021

Accounting standards for measuring fair value are based on inputs used in estimating fair value. The three levels of the hierarchy are as follows:

Level 1 — Quoted prices for identical assets or liabilities in active markets (markets in which transactions occur with sufficient frequency and volume to provide pricing information on an ongoing basis). AFG’s Level 1 financial instruments consist primarily of publicly traded equity securities, highly liquid government bonds for which quoted market prices in active markets are available and short-term investments of managed investment entities.

Level 2 — Quoted prices for similar instruments in active markets; quoted prices for identical or similar assets or liabilities in inactive markets (markets in which there are few transactions, the prices are not current, price quotations vary substantially over time or among market makers, or in which little information is released publicly); and valuations based on other significant inputs that are observable in active markets. AFG’s Level 2 financial instruments include corporate and municipal fixed maturity securities, asset-backed securities (“ABS”), mortgage-backed securities (“MBS”), certain non-affiliated common stocks and investments of managed investment entities priced using observable inputs. Level 2 inputs include benchmark yields, reported trades, corroborated broker/dealer quotes, issuer spreads and benchmark securities. When non-binding broker quotes can be corroborated by comparison to similar securities priced using observable inputs, they are classified as Level 2.

Level 3 — Valuations derived from market valuation techniques generally consistent with those used to estimate the fair values of Level 2 financial instruments in which one or more significant inputs are unobservable or when the market for a security exhibits significantly less liquidity relative to markets supporting Level 2 fair value measurements. The unobservable inputs may include management’s own assumptions about the assumptions market participants would use based on the best information available at the valuation date. Financial instruments whose fair value is estimated based on non-binding broker quotes or internally developed using significant inputs not based on, or corroborated by, observable market information are classified as Level 3.

As discussed in Note A — “Accounting Policies — Managed Investment Entities,” AFG has set the carrying value of its CLO liabilities equal to the fair value of the CLO assets (which have more observable fair values) as an alternative to reporting those liabilities at separately measured fair values. As a result, the CLO liabilities are categorized within the fair value hierarchy on the same basis (proportionally) as the related CLO assets. Since the portion of the CLO liabilities allocated to Level 3 is derived from the fair value of the CLO assets, these amounts are excluded from the progression of Level 3 financial instruments.

AFG’s management is responsible for the valuation process and uses data from outside sources (including nationally recognized pricing services and broker/dealers) in establishing fair value. AFG’s internal investment professionals are a group of approximately 20 investment professionals whose primary responsibility is to manage AFG’s investment portfolio. These professionals monitor individual investments as well as overall industries and are active in the financial markets on a daily basis. The group is led by AFG’s chief investment officer, who reports directly to one of AFG’s Co-CEOs. Valuation techniques utilized by pricing services and prices obtained from external sources are reviewed by AFG’s internal investment professionals who are familiar with the securities being priced and the markets in which they trade to ensure the fair value determination is representative of an exit price. To validate the appropriateness of the prices obtained, these investment managers consider widely published indices (as benchmarks), recent trades, changes in interest rates, general economic conditions and the credit quality of the specific issuers. In addition, the Company communicates directly with the pricing services regarding the methods and assumptions used in pricing, including verifying, on a test basis, the inputs used by the service to value specific securities.

Assets and liabilities of continuing operations measured and carried at fair value in the financial statements are summarized below (in millions):


	Level 1		Level 2		Level 3		Total
September 30, 2021
Assets:
Available for sale (“AFS”) fixed maturities:
U.S. Government and government agencies	$	217	$	1	$	—	$	218
States, municipalities and political subdivisions	—		1,884		42		1,926
Foreign government	—		217		—		217
Residential MBS	—		736		18		754
Commercial MBS	—		113		—		113
Collateralized loan obligations	—		1,828		1		1,829
Other asset-backed securities	—		2,335		309		2,644
Corporate and other	15		2,463		248		2,726
Total AFS fixed maturities	232		9,577		618		10,427
Trading fixed maturities	—		29		—		29
Equity securities	681		44		268		993
Assets of managed investment entities (“MIE”)	316		4,802		12		5,130

Total assets accounted for at fair value	$	1,229	$	14,452	$	898	$	16,579
Liabilities:
Liabilities of managed investment entities	$	310	$	4,712	$	12	$	5,034

Total liabilities accounted for at fair value	$	310	$	4,712	$	12	$	5,034

December 31, 2020
Assets:
Available for sale fixed maturities:
U.S. Government and government agencies	$	195	$	3	$	—	$	198
States, municipalities and political subdivisions	—		2,273		39		2,312
Foreign government	—		176		—		176
Residential MBS	—		877		38		915
Commercial MBS	—		90		2		92
Collateralized loan obligations	—		1,046		16		1,062
Other asset-backed securities	—		1,742		305		2,047
Corporate and other	4		2,140		138		2,282
Total AFS fixed maturities	199		8,347		538		9,084
Trading fixed maturities	—		24		—		24
Equity securities	665		48		176		889
Assets of managed investment entities	217		4,733		21		4,971

Total assets accounted for at fair value	$	1,081	$	13,152	$	735	$	14,968
Liabilities:
Liabilities of managed investment entities	$	215	$	4,678	$	21	$	4,914

Total liabilities accounted for at fair value	$	215	$	4,678	$	21	$	4,914

Approximately 5% of the total assets of continuing operations carried at fair value at September 30, 2021, were Level 3 assets. Approximately 17% ($150 million) of those Level 3 assets were priced using non-binding broker quotes, for which there is a lack of transparency as to the inputs used to determine fair value. Details as to the quantitative inputs are neither provided by the brokers nor otherwise reasonably obtainable by AFG. Approximately $61 million (7%) of the Level 3 assets were priced by pricing services where either a single price was not corroborated, prices varied enough among the providers, or other market factors led management to determine these securities be classified as Level 3 assets. Approximately 17% ($149 million) of the Level 3 assets were equity investments (that do not qualify for equity method accounting) in limited partnerships whose prices were determined based on financial information provided by the limited partnerships.

Internally developed Level 3 asset fair values of continuing operations represent approximately $519 million (58%) of the total fair value of Level 3 assets at September 30, 2021. Internally priced fixed maturities are priced using a variety of

inputs, including appropriate credit spreads over the treasury yield (of a similar duration), trade information and prices of comparable securities and other security specific features (such as optional early redemption). Internally developed prices for equity securities are based primarily on financial information of the entities invested in and sales of comparable companies. Since internally developed Level 3 asset fair values represent less than 10% of AFG’s Shareholders’ Equity, any justifiable changes in unobservable inputs used to determine internally developed fair values would not have a material impact on AFG’s financial position.

Changes in balances of Level 3 financial assets and liabilities carried at fair value during the third quarter and first nine months of 2021 and 2020 are presented below (in millions). The transfers into and out of Level 3 were due to changes in the availability of market observable inputs. All transfers are reflected in the table at fair value as of the end of the reporting period.


			Total realized/unrealized gains (losses) included in
	Balance at June 30, 2021		Net earnings (loss)		OCI		Purchases and issuances		Sales and settlements		Transfer into Level 3		Transfer out of Level 3		Balance at September 30, 2021
AFS fixed maturities:
U.S. government agency	$	—	$	—	$	—	$	—	$	—	$	—	$	—	$	—
State and municipal	36		—		—		—		—		8		(2)		42
Residential MBS	28		(1)		—		—		(1)		—		(8)		18
Commercial MBS	—		—		—		—		—		—		—		—
Collateralized loan obligations	6		—		1		—		—		—		(6)		1
Other asset-backed securities	315		1		(1)		41		(38)		—		(9)		309
Corporate and other	220		—		(1)		36		(9)		2		—		248
Total AFS fixed maturities	605		—		(1)		77		(48)		10		(25)		618
Equity securities	245		7		—		20		(4)		—		—		268
Assets of MIE	15		(2)		—		1		—		—		(2)		12
Total Level 3 assets	$	865	$	5	$	(1)	$	98	$	(52)	$	10	$	(27)	$	898


			Total realized/unrealized gains (losses) included in
	Balance at June 30, 2020		Net earnings (loss)		OCI		Purchases and issuances		Sales and settlements		Transfer into Level 3		Transfer out of Level 3		Balance at September 30, 2020
AFS fixed maturities:
U.S. government agency	$	—	$	—	$	—	$	—	$	—	$	—	$	—	$	—
State and municipal	41		—		—		—		—		—		—		41
Residential MBS	42		(1)		—		—		(3)		8		(1)		45
Commercial MBS	6		—		—		—		—		—		(4)		2
Collateralized loan obligations	55		—		1		—		—		—		—		56
Other asset-backed securities	293		(1)		2		8		(15)		14		(8)		293
Corporate and other	178		3		1		8		(28)		1		(26)		137
Total AFS fixed maturities	615		1		4		16		(46)		23		(39)		574
Equity securities	164		(5)		—		5		—		—		(5)		159
Assets of MIE	17		(2)		—		—		—		—		—		15
Assets of discontinued annuity operations	3,044		(7)		19		83		(113)		224		(193)		3,057
Total Level 3 assets	$	3,840	$	(13)	$	23	$	104	$	(159)	$	247	$	(237)	$	3,805

Liabilities of discontinued annuity operations	$	(3,675)	$	(5)	$	—	$	(56)	$	79	$	—	$	—	$	(3,657)
Total Level 3 liabilities	$	(3,675)	$	(5)	$	—	$	(56)	$	79	$	—	$	—	$	(3,657)


			Total realized/unrealized gains (losses) included in
	Balance at December 31, 2020		Net earnings (loss)		OCI		Purchases and issuances		Sales and settlements		Transfer into Level 3		Transfer out of Level 3		Sale of annuity business		Balance at September 30, 2021
AFS fixed maturities:
U.S. government agency	$	—	$	—	$	—	$	—	$	—	$	—	$	—	$	—	$	—
State and municipal	39		—		—		—		(3)		8		(2)		—		42
Residential MBS	38		(4)		—		6		(2)		6		(26)		—		18
Commercial MBS	2		—		—		—		—		—		(2)		—		—
Collateralized loan obligations	16		1		—		—		(1)		—		(15)		—		1
Other asset-backed securities	305		1		—		131		(110)		14		(32)		—		309
Corporate and other	138		(1)		(2)		142		(29)		5		(5)		—		248
Total AFS fixed maturities	538		(3)		(2)		279		(145)		33		(82)		—		618
Equity securities	176		78		—		44		(23)		—		(7)		—		268
Assets of MIE	21		1		—		3		—		1		(14)		—		12
Assets of discontinued annuity operations	2,971		85		(21)		209		(328)		32		(229)		(2,719)		—
Total Level 3 assets	$	3,706	$	161	$	(23)	$	535	$	(496)	$	66	$	(332)	$	(2,719)	$	898

Liabilities of discontinued annuity operations	$	(3,933)	$	(222)	$	—	$	(146)	$	158	$	—	$	—	$	4,143	$	—
Total Level 3 liabilities	$	(3,933)	$	(222)	$	—	$	(146)	$	158	$	—	$	—	$	4,143	$	—


			Total realized/unrealized gains (losses) included in
	Balance at December 31, 2019		Net earnings (loss)		Other comprehensive income (loss)		Purchases and issuances		Sales and settlements		Transfer into Level 3		Transfer out of Level 3		Balance at September 30, 2020
AFS fixed maturities:
U.S. government agency	$	—	$	—	$	—	$	—	$	—	$	—	$	—	$	—
State and municipal	40		—		2		—		(1)		—		—		41
Residential MBS	45		—		(1)		—		(5)		9		(3)		45
Commercial MBS	6		—		—		—		—		—		(4)		2
Collateralized loan obligations	1		(1)		4		—		—		52		—		56
Other asset-backed securities	256		(6)		3		69		(62)		41		(8)		293
Corporate and other	223		2		—		40		(39)		3		(92)		137
Total AFS fixed maturities	571		(5)		8		109		(107)		105		(107)		574
Equity securities	161		(22)		—		16		—		9		(5)		159
Assets of MIE	17		(4)		—		—		—		2		—		15
Assets of discontinued annuity operations	3,092		(27)		39		444		(325)		482		(648)		3,057
Total Level 3 assets	$	3,841	$	(58)	$	47	$	569	$	(432)	$	598	$	(760)	$	3,805

Liabilities of discontinued annuity operations	$	(3,730)	$	41	$	—	$	(180)	$	212	$	—	$	—	$	(3,657)
Total Level 3 liabilities	$	(3,730)	$	41	$	—	$	(180)	$	212	$	—	$	—	$	(3,657)

Fair Value of Financial Instruments The carrying value and fair value of financial instruments of continuing operations that are not carried at fair value in the financial statements are summarized below (in millions):


	Carrying		Fair Value
	Value		Total		Level 1		Level 2		Level 3
September 30, 2021
Financial assets:
Cash and cash equivalents	$	2,833	$	2,833	$	2,833	$	—	$	—
Mortgage loans	537		555		—		—		555
Total financial assets not accounted for at fair value	$	3,370	$	3,388	$	2,833	$	—	$	555

Long-term debt	$	1,964	$	2,295	$	—	$	2,292	$	3
Total financial liabilities not accounted for at fair value	$	1,964	$	2,295	$	—	$	2,292	$	3

December 31, 2020
Financial assets:
Cash and cash equivalents	$	1,665	$	1,665	$	1,665	$	—	$	—
Mortgage loans	377		382		—		—		382
Total financial assets not accounted for at fair value	$	2,042	$	2,047	$	1,665	$	—	$	382

Long-term debt	$	1,963	$	2,325	$	—	$	2,322	$	3
Total financial liabilities not accounted for at fair value	$	1,963	$	2,325	$	—	$	2,322	$	3

- Definition

The entire disclosure for the fair value of financial instruments (as defined), including financial assets and financial liabilities (collectively, as defined), and the measurements of those instruments as well as disclosures related to the fair value of non-financial assets and liabilities. Such disclosures about the financial instruments, assets, and liabilities would include: (1) the fair value of the required items together with their carrying amounts (as appropriate); (2) for items for which it is not practicable to estimate fair value, disclosure would include: (a) information pertinent to estimating fair value (including, carrying amount, effective interest rate, and maturity, and (b) the reasons why it is not practicable to estimate fair value; (3) significant concentrations of credit risk including: (a) information about the activity, region, or economic characteristics identifying a concentration, (b) the maximum amount of loss the entity is exposed to based on the gross fair value of the related item, (c) policy for requiring collateral or other security and information as to accessing such collateral or security, and (d) the nature and brief description of such collateral or security; (4) quantitative information about market risks and how such risks are managed; (5) for items measured on both a recurring and nonrecurring basis information regarding the inputs used to develop the fair value measurement; and (6) for items presented in the financial statement for which fair value measurement is elected: (a) information necessary to understand the reasons for the election, (b) discussion of the effect of fair value changes on earnings, (c) a description of [similar groups] items for which the election is made and the relation thereof to the balance sheet, the aggregate carrying value of items included in the balance sheet that are not eligible for the election; (7) all other required (as defined) and desired information.

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